Talk Elections

I wonder if Reagan would've still been reelected, if unemployment were still really high, like in the 9's or 10's? His likeability and weak/mediocre democratic candidates.

I'd say. It would not have been a landslide, but against Mondale or any of the other choices Reagan would have won.

With unemployment at: 8.0% with Mondale running:

()()

R: 435
D: 103

With unemployment at 10%, Mondale wins a close race:

()

Popular Vote:

Mondale/Ferraro        50 %
Reagan/Bush             49 %

Electoral College

Mondale/Ferraro        279
Reagan/Bush             259

()
This would be the likely result.
53-45

The economy in the 80's was kind of weird. I was reading some yearly economy rates. There was like this huge turnaround in mid-1983 to mid-1984. After that, it mostly just stalled, up until like spring of 1987. What was that all about?

Higher quality Democrats would run if unemployment was 10%.

Keep in mind that Reagan and Co. re-defined unemployment too, which lowered the percentages.  The big turnaround started in 83 and 84.  People were feeling the recovery, or at least they had hope that their own situations would turn around soon.

Bush actually made an honest statement that the economy was growing in 1992; it was, but people weren't "feeling" it yet.

Mistakes like your example are what made Bush 41 so easy to paint as out of touch.

Could happen to Obama, I guess...