Talk Elections

My analysis on them so far, assuming best case scenarios for candidate recruitment:

AL - Safe R (although the nominee might not be Riley, let's just hope it's not Roy Moore!)
AK - Safe R unfortunately
AZ - NCF
AR - NCF (I hope Clark runs)
CA - Leans R unfortunately
CO - NCF
CT - Leans D (although better for Republicans now that they don't have that albatross Rowland around anymore)
FL - NCF
GA - Leans R
HI - NCF
ID - Safe R
IL - Leans D
IA - Leans D (if Vilsack runs again. Is he term limited?)
KS - NCF
ME - Leans D, unless Snowe runs like rumored
MD - NCF
MA - Leans D if the Democrats get a half decent candidate
MI - Safe D
MN - NCF (and I will be working extra time to remove my state of the disgusting vile scumbag that is Tim Pawlenty)
NE - Safe R
NV - NCF
NH - Really impossible to tell, depends on how popular Lynch gets
NM - Safe D
NY - Leans D
OH - NCF
OK - NCF
OR - Leans D
PA - probably better not to go here, discuss this in the million other threads on it
RI - same as MA, Leans D with a half decent candidate
SC - Safe R
SD - Safe R
TN - Leans D (although if Frist has half a brain he'll realize he has no chance of being president and would run for this instead, but I bet he won't)
TX - Safe R
VT - Safe R unless Dean decides to make a comeback
WI - NCF
WY - NCF

I think that translates into "GOP pickup"  :P

My quibbles:

CA - If Ahnold runs again, Ahnold will win.  This is more than lean R.
CT - They like to elect R's to state level offices.  It'll depend on the candidate the Dems put up.  Right now, leans R.
MA - They like to elect R's to the governor.  Tossup unless a good D candidate appears.
TN - If Breseden runs again (term-limits?), he would win easily.

AL - Depends on the candidates (please, please, please not Roy Moore...) for now: NCF
AK - Should be safely GOP but an upset is possible
AZ - Not seen any approval ratings, don't know AZ politics very well.
AR - Depends on the candidate. AR is a Dfundamentally a Democratic state so a slight D lean (for now at least)
CA - Safe SdK (Schwarzeneggerpartie die Kulifoorneeyar
CO - NCF
CT - New Gov is popular. NCF
FL - Depends on candidates. NCF for now
GA - Perdue is a dead man walking. Leans D.
HI - Leans R
ID - Safe R
IL - Leans D
IA - Leans-to-Safe D (if Vilsack runs again)
KS - NCF
ME - Safe-to-Lean D
MD - NCF
MA - Leans D if the Democrats get a half decent candidate
MI - Safe D
MN - NCF
NE - Safe R
NV - NCF
NH - Who Knows?
NM - Safe D
NY - Leans D
OH - NCF
OK - Safe D
OR - Leans D
PA - probably better not to go here, discuss this in the million other threads on it
RI - same as MA, Leans D with a half decent candidate
SC - Safe R
SD - Safe R
TN - Bredesen is very popular. Safe D unless he cocks up.
TX - Depends if Perry runs again and if he can survive the primary
VT - Safe R unless Dean decides to make a comeback
WI - NCF
WY - Safe D

OK is Safe D? Is Henry that popular?

OK likes to elect Democrats to state offices.

He is not necessarily that popular though, from what I've heard.  A decent Republican candidate would cause him some problems.

Right now, lean D is a safe assessment.

In TX, Perry only loses in Hutchinson decides to challenge him.

Frankly, the Democrat party is so decimated in Texas, I don't even know who they would even try and run for governor.  Are they going to try and rescusitate (sp?) John Sharp?  He's the only candidate I know of who might have a chance.

Granholm is pretty safe here.  She should win around 55%

His approval rating is consistantly 65% and over

So is Bob Ehrlich in MD (approval rating @ 67% last time they polled).

However, because of where he is, it's a tossup.  The same thing should be said for OK.

I think GA should indeed be leans R, or even better, NCF.  But certainly not leans D, just in general.  I think it will mostly depend on the Dem nominee.  I would think Sec. of State Cathy Cox would have a better chance than would Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor in defeating Sonny.  After the Dem defections to the GOP in the state senate in 2002, the new GOP majority stripped Taylor of most of his power, making him basically a ceremonial figure, a fact that has been well-publicized.  Also, Taylor has positioned himself as a vocal opponent of Sonny's, which at this point probably won't be a positive.  Cox, on the other hand, was reelected in 2002 with the highest margin of any statewide candidate.  She recently has had a series of consumer-protection commercials that have boosted her visibility and name recognition, and she's quite photogenic.  I think with Taylor as the Dem candidate, this is a lean R, but with Cox, it would be lean D.  My question is why they're having this battle between the GA Dems' top 2 candidates.  It's unproductive.

And for CT, where I'm living at the moment, I think it should surely be leans R at this point.  According to a recent poll, even against Sen. Chris Dodd, who is extremely popular here, Rell would still win by a few points.

Gonzales research's June poll has him at 52%.

I dont think Arkansas is clearly Republican if Clark runs.

NY does not lean Dem, alot hinges on several factors.  While Pataki isn't all that well liked, he does have alot of support and could still get reelected.  If he runs for reelection it will be close between him and Spitzer.  However, if Pataki abandons the Governor's mansion to run for President, or even for the Senate, and Guiliani takes over, Guiliani wins hands down against Spitzer. 

Baltimore Sun Poll has O'Malley beating him by 10 in a hypothetical.
I'm curious how the Sun v. Ehrlich will turn out in the court of public opinion. What are the odds of the Sun endorsing Ehrlich?

I saw the poll, but my question would be who (what polling company) does the Baltimore Sun poll?

If its the same people who write the paper, then that's not exactly a credible source.

I agree wi' that... I'm assuming that the better candidate (ie: Cox) will get picked.
Maybe not a safe assumption. Call it NCF for now.

Several states vote differently in state elections than in presidential elections.

If Arnold doesn't run, the Dems will win.
Arnold isn't invinceable, either. He's has never run a real political campaign.

Cathy Cox announced her candidacy for GA governor yesterday.

http://www.cathycox.com/

believe me, hes the only Republican who has it "safe" here.

The sun will never endorse Ehrlich.  Olsker and Nitkin have been absolutley pounding him latley and they should be.  Ehrlich is a complete joke.  He will not give in to any bill that is not 100% the one he proposed.  The Baltimore Sun will end up endorsing either Duncan or O'Malley.  Although,  neither has said they will run but, everyone knows they both will.  Personally, I would like to see Congresman Dutch Ruppersberger run.  He would have a best chance at beating Ehrlich, IMO.  But he isnt going to run.

PA probably leans democrat...it would take a good republican (Swann or Schweiker) to break the 2 term trend around these parts.

A wee bit of inside information on the Texas race for you, spent some time in Austin during their special session for education, for good reason most republicans dont want Perry to be governor again, were not even sure that hed win, spending time in a few Senators offices  let me hear of thier meetings on this issue

I'd put a billion dollars on Kay Hutchinson for 2006

Pataki's chances of getting re-elected are slim to nill.  Polls show Spitzer winning by double digits.  Spitzer's approval is in the 60's, Pataki's approval is in the 40's.

So would I.  I'd also imagine Henry Bonilla would then run for Senate, probably.

I personally don't like Rick Perry myself, fwiw.

You've got Kansas as NCF (I'm guess "no clear frontrunner"), and I'd say that's just about right.  It's too early to tell who will be running against Gov. Sebelius, though the KC Star had an article yesterday throwing out names of a few of the usual suspects.  AG Phill Kline is the one I most expect to run - he'll have the backing of the conservatives.

When the big picture is looked at right now, Kansas may actually lean Dem, if only slightly.  Despite her tax increase proposals, education will probably dominate the race, and Sebelius has no glaring negatives.  What she does have is a sizable war chest already amassed - she's a fundraising queen.  With the GOP split in the state, the Republicans may have a tough time taking this governorship back.

No Clear Favorite´.

It's not looking good for Rod in Illinois, although I will be voting for him.

I don't know much about him but I remember watching the 2002 Gubernatorial debates on C-Span and he was very annoying.

He'll have that effect. He's just lucky Chicago will vote for him.

 Any word on Ohio Candidates? I have heard Betty Montgomery (Auditor) amd Jerry Springer (UGGG)

Ken Blackwell - Republican Secretary of State - is also a candidate.

One thing that could save him is the disaster otherwise known as the Illinois GOP

LOL...

They have cost themselves the senate seat twice. Once with Forcing Fitzgerald not to seek re-election and forcing Ryan out of the race.

i think/hope that mitt romney is in trouble in mass.  the strongest contender might be AG  thomas reilly. 

personally i hope shannon o'brien will run again.  she would have my support.

yawn. People who constantly talk about how they want Republicans to lose should not have Republican avatars.

Agreed

Pasted from another board:


Well, unfortunately, the 2 biggest names the GA Dems have are both running for the right to challenge Sonny next year, the other being current Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor.  At least one of them will be out of a job come 2 years from now.  I'd have to say it's a tossup at this point, although I'm going to predict that Cox gets the nomination.  Taylor has the money advantage, but Cox probably has greater name recognition (although some of it negative due to the confusion outlined above) and is certainly more charismatic.  Furthermore, women make up a substantial majority of the Dem primary voters, which obviously helps Cox.  Taylor seems to be indicating that he will run a negative campaign - in the first week after Cox announed her intentions, his people began to refer to her as "liberal" - an insult, I guess.  Cox should be able to match him on fundraising, so I see no reason why she shouldn't win it.

Has Max Cleland considered running?

lol.  max cleland is unfit for government service.  he is quite obviously a nut.

not to mention he has a huge chip on his shoulder about his war injuries.

Iowa will be a GOP pick up. Nussle is very popular here and the Democrats best candidate is Secretary of State Chet Culver, who may make the race competitive but is too liberal for rural voters.

If Grassley would have ran in 2002, the 2006 race probably would have been Governor Grassley's reelection campaign.

The reason he has that chip is that, despite those injuries, his opponent successfully managed to plant the question in the minds of voters of whether Max was patriotic.

A nut?  How possibly?

He won't be running for anything in GA again because he is no longer viable statewide (although perhaps for the House at some point?).

That is sad.

Georgia updates:

Current Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor's spokesman had this to say about Secretary of State Cathy Cox, against whom Taylor is running in the Democratic primary:
"Now we will see if Mark Taylor's experience, his record on schools, jobs and protecting families and his moderate views on the issues can beat a liberal like Cox in a Democratic primary."
Tactics like this should boost Cox, not bring her down.

Furthermore: "A poll conducted in October by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and WSB-TV suggests a tough re-election battle for Perdue against either Cox or Taylor.  Perdue led Taylor 44 percent to 41 percent and was tied with Cox at 41 percent each in the poll of 503 likely votes. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points."
Granted, this is an old poll, but it doesn't look good for Sonny, especially considering that Cox hadn't even announced her candidacy at that point.

I think Hynes (Illinois Dem Senate candidate in 2004) will try and oust Rod in Illinois this year.

Hes been attacking him lately publicaly.

The IL Gov has huge problems within his party. I just spoke with a friend very close to the Gov's home neighborhood in Chicago, and the operatives are unhappy and would rather not support him. That being said, it's not clear who wants to take the risk to take him on. Blagojevich has a huge war chest, is very good at raising more, and he's adept at keeping the media from going after him.

i read in an article once that Ralph Reed is planning on running for the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor so he can succeed Sonny Purdue once he completes his second and final term -assuming he gets the chance, that is.   does anyone on the inside have the inside scoop to provide meat to the bare bones i have provided here???

I don't know why no one mentined it before, but there is no chance Carcieri will lose Rhode Island.

Why?

That's pretty much his plan, it seems.  Several obscure GOP state senators as well as the GOP state House Majority Leader have been actively discussing running for Lt. Gov. for some time now, but now that Reed is running, suddenly this week they all have disavowed not only that they are running, but even that they were ever running at any time.  So basically the GOP field has been narrowed from a wide array of candidates to Reed, state Sen. Casey Cagle, and state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine.  The nominee would be either Reed or Oxendine.

As far as SC is concerened, I'd say that Sanford is likely a lock for re-election as Governor, Inez has an outside chance if Sanford's school choice plan goes down in serious flames, but I think she's more likely to run for a third and final term as Education Superintendent and run for Governor in 2010.  However, it's doubtful if our Lt. Gov. will get re-elected.  Bauer going to face at least one credable primary opponent and even if he survives that, the Dem's have a good chance of winning the position, as our boy-Lt. Gov. has not had good political fortune the past few years.

Any ideas on the Florida race?

Poltics 1 says:

http://www.politics1.com/fl.htm

Thanks for the link, Jake.

There sure are a lot of candidates already announced.  Have there been any polls conducted yet, or can anyone offer predictions?


Also, how about Ohio while we're at it?

I couldn't find any polls for Florida, but I would predict the gubernatorial battle will come down to Crist and Gallagher. 

Here are two links on Florida and Ohio.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/2004/12/us_senate_2006_3.html

http://www.swingstateproject.com/ohio/index.html

http://www.swingstateproject.com/2004/12/us_senate_2006_3.html

question: is Florida trending Republican because of the growth of its suburbs, or is it something else?  i imagine the same phenomenon is occuring in Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

Latinos and suburbs mainly.  Florida may become the next Texas.

From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Feb 16, 2005:

"According to the survey of 801 Georgia voters by Strategic Vision, a Republican firm, Perdue has a 54 percent approval rating and leads both prospective Democratic opponents — though not by the margin he might hope for.

"In the poll, conducted Feb. 11-13, Perdue holds a 50-44 lead in a hypothetical matchup with Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor. In a matchup with Secretary of State Cathy Cox, Perdue falls below the 50 percent mark, leading the Democrat 49-45."

Keep in mind that this is a very partisan Republican polling firm.  But we can draw some conclusions:
- This race will be very competitive.
- Perdue is in danger, but not chronically as some had suspected.
- Cox would do better against Perdue than would Taylor.

Cox would be a good Governor I think.  I like her alot more than Taylor.

I'm glad you say that.

I'd be interested to see a poll regarding the Dem primary.  Given what we know as of this point, I think this race gets decided in the Dem primary, such that if Cox wins it, she'll be the next governor, but if Taylor wins, Perdue gets a second term.

You live in PA but seem to know an awful lot about GA.  Who do you think will win this thing?

According to a new poll, Alabama Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley is the favorite for the Dem nomination for Gov (over former Gov. Don Siegelman.  Former Chief Justice Roy Moore would win the GOP nomination over current Gov. Bob Riley, although the results of such a race have tightened since previous polls were conducted.  Baxley would beat either Riley or Moore in the general election.


"In the survey's hypothetical general election pairings, Baxley drew 39 percent to Riley's 35 percent. She led Moore 44 percent to 38 percent.
"Riley registered a nine-point advantage over Siegelman, drawing 43 percent against his former rival's 34 percent. Moore held a double-digit lead -- 44 percent to 34 percent -- over Siegelman. A Register-USA poll last month also showed Siegelman trailing the two Republicans, though his margin against Moore was much smaller."

http://www.al.com/politics/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/news/110889473481631.xml

Baxley looks like a very strong candidate and it looks as though the mud has finally stuck to Siegelman.

Interesting thing about the last few cycles of Gubernatorial elections in the Deep South is that most seem to end up flipping.