Talk Elections

The field of possible 2012 Republican presidential candidates is wide. But, given the choice, about one in four New York State Republican voters -- 23% -- report they would back former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and one in five -- 20% -- say they would support former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Here is how the field stands among these Republican voters:

• 23% for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
• 20% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
• 12% for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
• 10% for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee
• 7% for Businessman Donald Trump
• 7% for Texas Congressman Ron Paul
• 3% for former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich
• 2% for Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
• 2% for Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels
• 2% for Businessman Herman Cain
• 1% for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann
• 1% for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
• Fewer than 1% for former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
• Fewer than 1% for former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson
• 10% are undecided

...

Nature of the Sample: New York State Poll of 941 Adults

This survey of 941 New York State adults was conducted on April 25th through April 29th, 2011. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in New York State were interviewed by telephone.

Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each county was represented in proportion to its population.

To increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points.

There are 758 registered voters and 205 Republicans. The sample of registered voters was adjusted for turnout in statewide elections. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±4.0 percentage points and ±7.0 percentage points, respectively. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/55-nys-voters-say-no-to-candidate-trump

Map (now including New York):

()

Huckabee -> Light Blue
Romney -> Red
Palin -> Pink
Giuliani -> Dark Blue
Pawlenty -> Green

White -> Candidates are tied

I hope Rudy runs, it will make things more fun

^^^

He might even win delegates this time.

Giuliani 2012! :)

What are you going to do with this map if, in a few hours, Huckabee announces that he isn't running?  Find versions of all the polls that don't include Huckabee?

7% margin of error? Including Rudy Giuliani? What a useful poll!

At least most of the PPP ones either asked the question without Huckabee too, or asked respondents their "second choice."

Hmm. That won't be possible.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MO_0505.pdf

In this poll for example, there are no second choices polled.

Huckabee leads by a big margin in MO, so it's impossible to say who benefits most from his almost 30%.

Therefore I have no other choice than to blank out all the states in which Huckabee has led so far and start to color them anew when there are polls for these states again.

But that is also not good ... :P

Because who can say that with Mike Huckabee out now, that Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin leads for example in West Virginia ...

ARRRRRRRRGHHHHHH, Mike Huckabee ! Why did you have to do this to me ??

YOU ARE RUINING MY MAPPPPS !!! ARGGGGHHHH !

:(

Well, some of your polls that you're already using also include other candidates who've already said they're not running, like Chris Christie.

What about this?:

-You use the most recent poll of each state in which Huckabee is not included, if there is one.
-If all the polls for a given state include Huckabee, then you only use the poll on that state if Huckabee's under 10%.  Otherwise, you leave it blank.

Or something like that?