Atlas Forum

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2011, 10:05:13 pm



Title: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2011, 10:05:13 pm
I figured this might have an official thread. If the National Board's constitutional amendment passes next month, the convention will take place between November 1, 2012 and February 28, 2013. In the highly unlikely event said amendment fails, the convention will be held October 28-29 of this year. The date will be announced no sooner than 5 months in advance.

...

That said, let's take a look at potential candidates.

 
Scott Brison


 
MP since: 1997
Riding: Kings-Hants, NS
*Critic: Finance
Cabinet: Public Works (2004-6)
Age: 44
Party wing: Centre-right
 
Pros: policy wonk, excellent Commons performer, charismatic, cabinet experience, organizational skill.
 
Cons: PC past, poor 2006 showing.



Denis Coderre


MP since: 1997
Riding: Bourassa, QC
Frontbench: N/A
Cabinet: Immigration and Citizenship (2002-3), President of the Privy Council (2003-4), La Francophonie (2003-4)
Age: 47
Party wing: Centrist

Pros: Cabinet experience, organizational experience.
Cons: abrasive, temperamental, insubordinate, a failure as Quebec lieutenant.



 
Dominic LeBlanc
 
MP since: 2000
Riding: Beausejour, NB
Critic: Defence
Cabinet: N/A
Age: 44
Party wing: Centrist
 
Pros: excellent Commons performer, personable, experienced non-Quebec Francophone.
 
Cons: near-zero name recognition outside the Hillverse or NB.
 
 
David McGuinty
 
MP since: 2004
Riding: Ottawa South
Frontbench: House Leader
Cabinet: N/A   
Age: 51
Party wing: Centre-left
 
Pros: Experienced, high name recognition, bilingual.
 
Cons: An Ed Balls-type figure, plus he happens to be his brother’s brother.

For Quebec lieutenant (Rae all but confirmed Garneau will remain in that role despite his utter failure in it)...


Denis Coderre: as described.




Marc Garneau

MP since: 2008
Riding: Westmount-Ville-Marie, QC
Frontbench: Quebec lieutenant, Industry
Cabinet: N/A
Age: 63
Party wing: Centrist
Pros: Highly respected, bilingual, high name recognition.
Cons: has been a failure as Quebec lieutenant, failing to save seats that have been Liberal for generations, plus nearly losing his own seat. Age.



Justin Trudeau

MP since: 2008
Riding: Papineau, QC
Frontbench: Immigration, Youth
Cabinet: N/A
Age: 39
Party wing: Centrist
Pros: universal name recognition, telegenic, charismatic, prodigious fundraiser.
Cons: Insufficient policy depth.


* The Liberal frontbench for this Parliament has yet to be announced, and there are by my count 17 slots to fill, merge or abolish due to vacancies.

In alphabetical order:

Brison: The ideal candidate. His ideas on EI reform and European-style healthcare have been floating around for a decade, and only now are the pundits saying the Liberals should latch onto entitlement reform as a vision thing. Speaking as a Tory activist, I can say that he would be the most formidable. Knows how to connect with rural voters, might persuade them to stop demonizing hunters and drop support for the gun registry. Comfortable in his own skin, which is more than can be said for Harper.

Coderre: I doubt he would make a serious run for leader. The man is quite simply a thug and an incompetent one at that. Look no farther than the intraparty brawl over star candidates 2 years ago that nearly got him expelled from caucus for insubordination. Brings nothing to the table that I can think of.

LeBlanc: He is running and he wants it badly. Already there have been reports of his assembling a team assembled from ex-Martin operatives. His major problem is that he has no personality and no one knows who he is despite having been an MP for over a decade and serving in senior Shadow Cabinet positions. Outside the Hillverse and NB, a complete nonentity- I'd be surprised if non-junkies could pick him out of a lineup. Apparently he's a good Commons performer. Hardly anything on his YouTube channel or CPAC, so nothing to verify that with. Were he elected leader, he would be completely overshadowed by his two top lieutenants: Brison and Trudeau, who both have more charisma in their fingertips than he does in his entire body. Look at any picture of them together to see what I mean.

McGuinty: he's also a brawler, and happens to be his brother's brother. Almost as radioactive in Ontario as Rae is. High name ID, but that's all he has going for him IMO.


Quebec lieutenant:

Coderre: he's already failed at the job.

Garneau: ditto, and nearly lost his seat in the process.

Trudeau: give him the job. His current lack of policy depth (though on many issues his instincts are good IMO) is mostly irrelevant in what is a primarily organizational job. No one else has the star power to compete with Tom Mulcair, plus he has a good constituency organization going in Papineau that should serve as a model for how to work a riding properly- try applying that on the macro level. Needless to say that he can get them "fired up, ready to go" like no other Liberal in the country, plus get the donors to open their wallets. They could do a lot worse IMO.  In the next leadership cycle or 2 he'll be seasoned enough to grab the brass ring.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on May 29, 2011, 10:17:19 pm
I would put McGuinty as a centrist (I mean, he was a Martinite, after all, and his brother is a mixed bag of fun...), and Trudeau as centre-left (I mean, hello!).


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 29, 2011, 10:28:19 pm
Justin Trudeau

MP since: 2008
Riding: Papineau, QC
Frontbench: Immigration, Youth
Cabinet: N/A
Age: 39
Party wing: Centrist
Pros: universal name recognition, telegenic, charismatic, prodigious fundraiser.
Cons: Insufficient policy depth.

Trudeau family is hated in Quebec, must I remember you?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on May 29, 2011, 10:44:43 pm
Sounds like Brison doesn't want to run, as he plans on starting a family

One of only 34 Grits elected to the new Parliament, Mr. Brison said he and husband Maxime St. Pierre are thinking of starting a family. “I don’t want to have one of Canada’s first same sex divorces,” he said when asked if he is considering another leadership race. “If you’re going to make that commitment, I not only want to be a parent, I want to be a good parent and that’s something we both feel strongly about.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/scott-brison-puts-family-ahead-of-liberal-leadership-ambition/article2009666/?from=sec368


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2011, 10:53:06 pm
If anyone knows anything about LeBlanc beyond what I've mentioned, please let us know.

McGuinty: Forgot that he was more fiscally responsible than his brother.

Trudeau: I'm basing this on economic, not social issues. Obviously everyone on that list is a social progressive, including the uber-Martinite Scott Brison. His comments on the sands were pleasantly surprising. Hatred: so were Chretien and Dion, and they won more seats than what the Liberals currently have. Even in the event of a public repentance for torpeoding Meech, which is as likely as Harper streaking down Rideau Avenue in broad daylight, there would still be an underlying issue with most Francophones. Better someone who's hated but has the organizational and fundraising skills than someone who's hated slightly less but has conclusively proven their incompetence.

*I define economic centrism as what Chretien did in the '90s, just so that's clear.


Brison: now there are reports he's mulling it over. There has to be someone opposing LeBlanc who is not radioactive in Ontario. Another coronation would be hammering the final nail into their own coffin.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: mileslunn on May 29, 2011, 11:26:44 pm
I would agree that McGuinty is centrist, while Trudeau is centre-left.  I don't know about his son, but his father was very much a supporter of bigger government.

I would add a few who are not MPs

Gerard Kennedy

Position: Centre-left

Pros: Originally from the West and a strong supporter of greater grassroots support.

Cons: A weak performer in the last parliamentary session and couldn't hold his own seat

Martha Hall-Findlay

Position: Centrist

Pros: a woman, not part of the old boys club who has long dominated the Liberal Party and has a positive vision to make people want to support the Liberals instead of running on fear of the opponents.

Cons: largely unknown and lost her own seat


Ken Dryden

Position: Centre-left

Pros: a hockey great which is Canada's national sport and also the architect behind Canada's failed childcare program.

Cons: Almost invisible in opposition and couldn't win his own seat

John McCallum

Position: Centrist to centre-right

Pros: bilingual and has a strong financial background so could help the Liberals regain their strength on the economic front which they have surrendered to the Tories.

Cons: Comes across as rather arrogant and not rather appealing, in many ways a big turn off.

John Manley

Position: Centre-right

Pros: Has much experience and very strong credentials, particularly on the economic front.

Cons: His centre-right positions might cause some left leaning Liberals to migrate to the NDP.  Also considering the amount of money he makes in the private sector, I don't see any advantage in returning to recisitate and third party

Frank McKenna

Position : Centre-right

Pros: A very successful premier who won every single seat in New Brunswick which was a province that went largely Conservative.  Also has lots of experience and knows how to win.

Cons: Been out of politics too long and may have trouble appealing to the left wing of the Liberal Party due to his strong Bay Street connections.  Also he makes way more money in the private sector than he ever would as Liberal leader thus monetarily little incentive to run for the position.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2011, 11:44:05 pm
Anyone who lost their seat can be safely eliminated. Especially since none of those races were particularly close. Kennedy and Dryden both lost previously safe seats by 15 points, while Hall Findlay is an unknown with no accomplishments in her brief tenure as an MP.

McKenna, Manley and McCallum are too old and have never been interested. Everyone realizes it has to be one of the 40-somethings, either Brison or LeBlanc.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on May 30, 2011, 12:46:43 am
If anyone knows anything about LeBlanc beyond what I've mentioned, please let us know.

McGuinty: Forgot that he was more fiscally responsible than his brother.

Trudeau: I'm basing this on economic, not social issues. Obviously everyone on that list is a social progressive, including the uber-Martinite Scott Brison. His comments on the sands were pleasantly surprising. Hatred: so were Chretien and Dion, and they won more seats than what the Liberals currently have. Even in the event of a public repentance for torpeoding Meech, which is as likely as Harper streaking down Rideau Avenue in broad daylight, there would still be an underlying issue with most Francophones. Better someone who's hated but has the organizational and fundraising skills than someone who's hated slightly less but has conclusively proven their incompetence.

*I define economic centrism as what Chretien did in the '90s, just so that's clear.


Brison: now there are reports he's mulling it over. There has to be someone opposing LeBlanc who is not radioactive in Ontario. Another coronation would be hammering the final nail into their own coffin.

What the heck is Rideau Avenue? Do you mean Rideau Street? ;) (that's the famous one, anyways)

Howabout Carolyn Bennett as a possible candidate? Sheila Copps? Anne McLellan?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: mileslunn on May 30, 2011, 04:15:49 am
I guess you could add Carolyn Bennett, the only problem is I don't think she speaks very much French.  Sheila Copps seems too much from the past, so unlikely if you ask me.  Anne McLellan would be an interesting choice although considering the Liberals are pretty much non-existent in Alberta, I am not sure how keen they would be on choosing someone from that province especially considering that she would face an uphill battle winning her own seat.  Heck from 1993 right through 2004 she never won her seat by very much and that was when the Liberals were much stronger.  As with Carolyn Bennett, the one plus she has is that she is a doctor and considering how important health care will be as an issue in future elections, that could help I guess.  Any others of the 34 MPs we covered who are bilingual?  Pretty much anyone who is not bilingual we can exclude.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 30, 2011, 04:30:40 am
Any others of the 34 MPs we covered who are bilingual?  Pretty much anyone who is not bilingual we can exclude.

The whole Quebec Liberal caucus is bilingual, I think.

While we obviously exclude Stéphane Dion, there is Francis Scarpaleggia (voted against gay marriage, a big Dion supporter, 53, unknown in Quebec, unlikely), Massimo Pacetti (Italian (!), 48, totally unknown in Quebec, unlikely) and Irwin Cotler (a world-class lawyer on human rights, former Justice minister, but aged 71 and he doesn't seem to be interested by power.)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on May 30, 2011, 08:14:26 am
Hedy Fry is another one. Cons: batsh*t crazy


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 30, 2011, 09:44:42 am
Carolyn Bennett's bilingualism status is unknown (Hell, there are conflicting reports about Brison, but since he has a Francophone spouse I'm assuming he at least speaks conversational French) and she's never indicated an interest. Also too old. Solid in any senior portfolio though.

Quebec: not unless Coderre drinks enough of his own bathwater (far from impossible) and runs.

Can anyone think of a potential downside for LeBlanc besides being a complete unknown? How would he be portrayed in the media? Harper is the soulless, wonky robot and Layton the glad-handing everyman.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: DL on May 30, 2011, 10:50:53 am
I don't find Leblanc to be at all "personable". He comes across as a bit of a wet blanket and not charismatic at all. I don't think he is much a retail politician. He may be the best of a mediocre lot - but if he's "personable" - Stephen Harper is the "life of the party"!


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 30, 2011, 11:27:10 am
DL: Out of curiosity, are you from NB and/or have you met LeBlanc?

Here are a couple of the few clips I can find. Makes Harper look dynamic in comparison.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dL-qYPUCSU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR6yPJS8WUY


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 30, 2011, 12:41:24 pm
Were I a senior Liberal, I'd be starting a "Draft Brison" movement about now. Not a huge fan of a primary or dropping fees, but capital gains and effective use of youth are excellent ideas. Drop the gun-grabbing and adopt his old EI/healthcare ideas, and you've got a solid foundation. A Liberal leader who can challenge Harper on his own economic turf is not someone that should not be lightly discarded again.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/05/30/scott-brison-how-the-liberals-might-yet-be-saved/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: DL on May 30, 2011, 12:45:39 pm
DL: Out of curiosity, are you from NB and/or have you met LeBlanc?



I'm from Ontario. never met Leblanc - just seen him on TV and find him very blah.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 30, 2011, 06:55:04 pm
Massimo Pacetti is an Italian from Montreal, so he has Mafia links, yes?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on May 30, 2011, 08:36:45 pm
Massimo Pacetti is an Italian from Montreal, so he has Mafia links, yes?

:D


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 30, 2011, 08:41:10 pm
Massimo Pacetti is an Italian from Montreal, so he has Mafia links, yes?

Considering the current corruption scandals in Québec, that would be an amalgam than most people would do. (For those not aware, there is big scandals about collusion between unions and big building businesses, between businesses and cities and towns for the attribution of contracts, between unions, and organised crime so unions can scare rival unions, businesses and organised crime so rival businesses don't apply for the contracts, between businesses, so cities pay inflated prices for contracts, between businesses and the provincial Liberal Party, between the businesses and local politicians in the style of "I pay all your campaign, but you give me all the contracts" and, finally, between local politicians and provincial politicians in the style of "I pay you and help you, but you try to convince the province to help me and the businesses who pay me". Many of the bosses' of the businesses have Italian names and one MNA named Tony Tomassi was expelled from the Liberal caucus and of his Minister of Family office. The mayors of Laval, St-Jérome, Terrebonne and Mascouche, among others, are suspected, too.)

For Coderre, the rumors have him running for Montreal's mayorship in 2013. He didn't denyed than he was interested.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: DL on May 30, 2011, 08:47:00 pm

For Coderre, the rumors have him running for Montreal's mayorship in 2013. He didn't denyed than he was interested.

That would be one more Liberal seat in Quebec that the NDP could easily scoop up in a byelection. There are also rumours that Stephane Dion will quit.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 30, 2011, 09:02:50 pm

For Coderre, the rumors have him running for Montreal's mayorship in 2013. He didn't denyed than he was interested.

That would be one more Liberal seat in Quebec that the NDP could easily scoop up in a byelection. There are also rumours that Stephane Dion will quit.

Not so easily. Bourassa has a big Italian population. The Italians seems to be still in the Liberal Party, see Saint-Michel--Saint-Léonard.

I have family there, and he doesn't see the Liberals losing it. Well, to be fair, I didn't thought BQ could lose Abitibi--Témiscamingue and they lost it by around 10000 votes.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: Smid on May 30, 2011, 09:20:48 pm

For Coderre, the rumors have him running for Montreal's mayorship in 2013. He didn't denyed than he was interested.

That would be one more Liberal seat in Quebec that the NDP could easily scoop up in a byelection. There are also rumours that Stephane Dion will quit.

Not so easily. Bourassa has a big Italian population. The Italians seems to be still in the Liberal Party, see Saint-Michel--Saint-Léonard.

I have family there, and he doesn't see the Liberals losing it. Well, to be fair, I didn't thought BQ could lose Abitibi--Témiscamingue and they lost it by around 10000 votes.

Would a similar comparison also be Vaughan, which may have seen the Liberal vote fall, but the voters swung to the Conservatives, rather than the NDP? If it's not similar, disregard, but if it is, perhaps low expectations for the Tories may allow the Liberals to hang onto the vote rather than seeing it go NDP?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 30, 2011, 09:35:34 pm

For Coderre, the rumors have him running for Montreal's mayorship in 2013. He didn't denyed than he was interested.

That would be one more Liberal seat in Quebec that the NDP could easily scoop up in a byelection. There are also rumours that Stephane Dion will quit.

Not so easily. Bourassa has a big Italian population. The Italians seems to be still in the Liberal Party, see Saint-Michel--Saint-Léonard.

I have family there, and he doesn't see the Liberals losing it. Well, to be fair, I didn't thought BQ could lose Abitibi--Témiscamingue and they lost it by around 10000 votes.

Would a similar comparison also be Vaughan, which may have seen the Liberal vote fall, but the voters swung to the Conservatives, rather than the NDP? If it's not similar, disregard, but if it is, perhaps low expectations for the Tories may allow the Liberals to hang onto the vote rather than seeing it go NDP?

No. Liberal won over NDP 41-32. Conservatives were 4th, at 8%.

Medium income in Bourassa is also around 2/3 of the medium income (and the half of medium earnings) in Vaughan.
And while Bourassa is heavily Italian, but more than 50% of the population has French has first language (sure, many Haitians are included in that).

So, very different. It also includes a part of the poor and black Montreal-Nord.

EDIT: Never mind, I was reading the number of people having income.

EDIT 2, with a "chart"

              Earnings      Income (for a person)    Income (for an household)
Bourassa  20,106$      19,054$                        33,523$
Vaughan   34,885$      30,053$                       86,915$

Well, the last column is clear.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: mileslunn on May 30, 2011, 09:54:08 pm
While it is true the Conservatives did well amongst the Italians in Ontario, that doesn't necessarily transfer over to the Quebec.  Pretty much amongst any ethnic group, they will do better in Ontario than in Quebec.  Still I think the NDP could potentially gain Bourassa if it is an open seat.  By-elections take on their own personalities so really tough to say.

As for another leader, how about David Orchard.  He loves to be a tourist in parties that were once strong but a former shell of themselves.  And unlike the NDP who promise to renegotiate NAFTA, he promises to rip it up.  And he is from the West.  Now to be serious I don't think he would win, but considering how many loyal followers he has who will follow him to any party he might play kingmaker much like he did in the PCs.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 31, 2011, 09:23:00 am
It simply has to be Hedy.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: DL on May 31, 2011, 12:10:20 pm

Not so easily. Bourassa has a big Italian population. The Italians seems to be still in the Liberal Party, see Saint-Michel--Saint-Léonard.

I have family there, and he doesn't see the Liberals losing it. Well, to be fair, I didn't thought BQ could lose Abitibi--Témiscamingue and they lost it by around 10000 votes.

The Liberals probably only managed to hang on in Bourassa because Coderre is still somewhat of a "big name" and because the NDP ran a total unknown - and while that was enough for them to win some totally francophone ridings - the non-francophone vote didn't swing quite as strongly NDP as the francophone did. When and if Coderre quits - it will be a whole different situation. The NDP would probably have a strongly contested nomination and would have all kinds of prominent people wanting to run. Bourassa has a very large Haitian community (which Coderre worked hard at catering to) and the NDP seems to be making major inroads in the recent immigrant/visible minority communities.  It would be a VERY interesting byelection - when and if it happens.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 31, 2011, 12:34:51 pm
Coderre would have to run under the UM banner as Tremblay's heir if he wanted to run in 2013.


Bourassa by-election: European and African immigrants are still mostly Liberal, especially African immigrants. More class than ethnicity though, as was mentioned.


Dion: NDP would probably take that seat. The remaining Quebec Liberals won as de facto indies on a personal rather than a party vote, and without Dion that goes.

There are also rumours that Cotler might retire, which would turn MR blue. He lost the Jewish vote but won the Asian vote on a personal basis.

Orchard: You're joking right?



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: mileslunn on May 31, 2011, 11:14:13 pm
Orchard: You're joking right?



No I am not actually.  He won't win the Liberal leadership but much like the PC leadership race he could play kingmaker.  He has about 30,000 loyal followers who will go wherever he goes.  He is almost a cult like leader in some ways.

As for joking matter here are mine though.

Joe Volpe: He can not only win amongst those eligible to vote, but is popular amongst the dead and kids.  Heck I am sure he can find a way to get cats and dogs to support him. 


Gordon Campbell:  If people get tired of the Tories perhaps they will turn to another free enterprise option.  After all he replaced the BC Liberals as the free enterprise party which was previously the Social Credit.  And he could learn French easily, after all his wife was a French teacher (and BTW I actually had her as my French teacher in elementary school and this is not a joke.  I didn't know much about politics back then, but everyone was hoping Campbell would run for premier so they could get rid of her as she gave out detentions, more homework than other teachers and had no problem failing you if you deserved it unlike some other teachers.  She taught at Queen Mary Elementary School which is on the West Side of Vancouver for those of you who are interested.)

Garth Turner: Loves to spout off and as a leader of the turd party as Chretien would say he can spout off all he wants.  In fact the Liberals needs as much media attention as possible.  The danger is being marginalized.

Jennifer Granholm:  Ignatieff didn't live outside of Canada long enough and we need someone who is both a dual citizen and lived outside of Canada for a long time.  After all she only lived her first three years of her life in Canada.  For those of you who don't recongize the name, she is the former Democrat governor of Michigan


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on June 01, 2011, 09:36:04 am
lol @ Jennifer Granholm


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 05, 2011, 10:27:37 am
Updating this now that the Shadow Cabinet has been announced. LeBlanc's promotion to Foreign Affairs guarantees that at least in the Hillverse he will come off as a wimp against Baird. Still no sign of a potential challenger. If it comes down to LeBlanc v. McGuinty *shudders*... yeesh.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: DL on June 05, 2011, 11:13:20 am
I think in the end Justin Trudeau will run - despite his low intelligence and all the rumours about him - and in a one member one vote process, he will win because Liberals will project on to him and see what they want to see. Then he will lead them to lose official party status in 2015


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 05, 2011, 12:24:27 pm
He's been Shermanesque on the issue and he wants to be the Blair, not the Kinnock. I'm hoping that Brison reconsiders myself.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 17, 2011, 11:32:01 pm
Update: Tomorrow at 3 will be the teleconference vote on postponement to the previously mentioned dates. I still see no reason why it can't be held this December, since only one candidate is all but confirmed (the Strangler's tool) with another (McLiar's brother) quite likely.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: Holmes on June 18, 2011, 10:15:09 am
First Bob Rae, then maybe David McGuinty? Please, Liberals! Let it be so. :D


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 18, 2011, 10:32:32 am
It will probably be LeBlanc- a Mr. Vanilla if I ever saw one.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 18, 2011, 04:27:42 pm
They just voted to delay the convention to between Nov. 1, 2012 and June 30, 2013, having listened into the phone convention. No links yet. I don't want to offend any Liberals here, so I'll restrict myself to saying that I think it was a horrible decision. Every leadership convention in our history, regardless of party, has been held within a year. The constitution forbids major structural adjustments by an interim leader- the sort of sensible reforms proposed by Scott Reid in this month's Policy Options. There are only three realistic choices for leader, all of whom are well known and/or have deep Rolodexes: Brison, LeBlanc and David McGuinty. IMO there should have been one in the spring or summer of next year.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 18, 2011, 05:36:24 pm
That's insane.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: MaxQue on June 18, 2011, 06:21:51 pm
Finally, the Convention won't be between November 1st, 2012 and June 30th, 2013, but between March 1st, 2013 and June 30th, 2013.

So, I think the title can be changed.


Title: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2013 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 18, 2011, 06:42:20 pm
Fixed, but 2013 is still far too late. The first reports of LeBlanc putting his team together were in the G&M within 3 weeks of the election for Chrissakes.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 07, 2011, 03:46:53 pm
Bumping because someone has finally identified the problem and hinted they might run.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/canada/rogue-liberal-readies-leadership-bid-62194.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 07, 2011, 03:55:56 pm
Oh, no, not him. I'm not able to say his name.

By the way, your link is broken, you need to delate the ''http'' at the end.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 07, 2011, 04:29:26 pm
Oh, no, not him. I'm not able to say his name.

By the way, your link is broken, you need to delate the ''http'' at the end.

Regardless, the Chretien tool Kodak will still win easily.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 07, 2011, 11:11:51 pm
I've heard a lot of good things about Wrzesnewskyj (rej-NIF-sky) and he was one of the Liberal MP's that impressed me.

He has my tentative support.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 11, 2011, 10:16:52 pm
Of course it should be pronounced Vshesnevski.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Convention 2012-3 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 13, 2011, 08:32:46 am
Till next time, but he's been clear on that for a while.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201110/13/01-4456743-justin-trudeau-ne-sera-pas-candidat-a-la-direction-du-plc.php



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013 thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2011, 10:35:46 pm
Dalton McGuinty rules out a run yet again, this time after his brother floated the idea. A rather staid race if the choices are between Kodak and David McGuinty.

Also, the new primary system will be adopted for both national leaders and individual ridings per Apps' roadmap. Could a Mod change the title to "... Election 2013 thread" perchance?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201111/26/01-4471963-le-premier-ministre-ontarien-nie-vouloir-se-presenter-a-la-tete-du-plc.php


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on November 27, 2011, 03:31:14 pm
I think unless the party's numbers increase dramatically they will probably chose from one of the current MPs.  Choosing one who isn't an MP is too risky as that means someone has to step aside for them and there weren't too many seats they won by comfortable margins meaning there is a risk of the leader losing the by-election.  In terms of current MPs, my thoughts on potentials are Scott Brison, Dominic LeBlanc, Justin Trudeau, Denis Coderre, Marc Garneau, Bob Rae (yes I know he isn't suppose to run, but this could be changed), Carolyn Bennett, Jim Karygiannis, David McGuinty, and Ralph Goodale.  Anybody else have see any other MPs who might make a run?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2011, 03:48:22 pm
It was always a choice among the currents. LeBlanc and McGuinty are all but certain to run, and most of the others you mentioned won't. Only Brison might change his mind, but I doubt he wants a third consecutive humiliation.

Brison: Best choice (as both leader and potential PM), but can't be nominated.

LeBlanc: Likely nominee, but he's a Chretien tool, unknown and a weak personality.

Trudeau: Till next time, when he has more experience and his kids are older.

Coderre: No, just no. Tremblay's running for a fourth term, so Coderre's locked out of the mayoralty that he apparently wants.

Garneau: No, just no. Too old and shouldn't even be in his lieutenancy position considering how badly he bungled it.

Rae: More Ontarian massacres? People were still telling NDP canvassers no because they remembered the man who hasn't been running their province for 16 years.

McGuinty: Decent choice, though he does have some baggage.

Goodale: Unilingualism, age, politically dated.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 27, 2011, 03:50:44 pm
Karygiannis? Really?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2011, 04:09:53 pm
If it comes down to a LeBlanc-McGuinty race, then I think LeBlanc has a slight edge over McGuinty but with the potential for a McGuinty upset. There has to be another candidate but can't think of who that would be. Reason I give LeBlanc an edge is his support among the Chretien-centred establishment crowd and unlike McGuinty, would be a fresh face.

As for Rae running, Copps has said she'll repeal that rule if elected party president. However, I believe Rae when he said he's not running. He has an ego but is also very much a political realist these days.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on November 27, 2011, 04:15:33 pm
What's wrong with Brison?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2011, 04:20:26 pm
What's wrong with Brison?

He doesn't seem to be that popular among the grassroots for some reason. What that reason is, I don't know.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on November 27, 2011, 04:22:11 pm
I love Brison, I'd vote for him.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on November 27, 2011, 04:33:49 pm
What's wrong with Brison?

He doesn't seem to be that popular among the grassroots for some reason. What that reason is, I don't know.

Really? A) he's a turncoat. B) he's gay (that is more of a disadvantage than one thinks)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2011, 04:40:47 pm
Had Kennedy not gotten thumped by Nash he'd have also been a leading, perhaps the leading contender. But alas, he unfortunately did.

As for who's better between LeBlanc and McGuinty, meh. Flip a coin. Both are decent without too many negatives, and if Rae does the heavy lifting of internal reform with the grassroots then LeBland's Chretien cronyism won't matter as much.

Brison: PET was also a turncoat, and as for sexual orientation I don't believe that. Maybe in a progressive party which has a substantial rural base, like the NDP or the PQ, but not the urbanite LPC.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on November 27, 2011, 04:50:33 pm
McGuinty's main baggage is his brother is premier.  While his brother was re-elected provincially, I am not sure people in Ontario want two McGuinty's in power at once, still he is a possibility.  Leblanc seems a like a good choice as he is bilingual, not from Toronto, Ottawa, or Montreal, from a rural riding (most rural ridings the party is irrelevant), although he does have the Chretien baggage.  As for Brison, the problem I think is many of the positions he took when in the Progressive Conservatives (scrapping regional development programs, supporting two tiered health care) would be a little much to stomach for the Liberals.  There seems to be little appetite to pull the party to the right of the centre.  As for Karygiannis, I don't think he will win, but I wouldn't be shocked if he ran and depending on how many show up he might do quite well.  As much of a sleazeball as he is, he is quite popular amongst many of the ethnic communities and could get a lot of votes here.  He also could help the Liberals regain their support amongst the ethnic voters, the only problem is unlike Kenney, he comes across too much of someone who wants to pander to them and that could backfire elsewhere whereas Kenney seems to be more careful to not go so far overboard it backfires elsewhere.  Likewise surprisingly a large number of those from ethnic communities actually resent politicians that single them out.  Many just want politicians to listen to their concerns and ensure they are addressed but still treat them as Canadians, not a different group.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on November 27, 2011, 04:57:01 pm
If McGunity becomes leader I will quit the party.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2011, 05:00:07 pm
I agree with miles: it's ideology that's Brison's handicap. TBH, I think ideologically he'd fit better on our side of the aisle. (and I for one would be happy to have him) Just 6 months ago he advocated axing the capital gains tax- something which we Tories heartily endorse, but I don't think many Liberals would.

Karygiannis: I don't recall seeing anything, anywhere, about him as a possibility.

LeBlanc: If he can get some personality and more importantly, some firmness, it would be helpful. Otherwise, I agree that an Atlantic perspective is certainly welcome.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on November 27, 2011, 05:10:10 pm
If the Liberals ever want to win again they'll have to adopt Brison's policies.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2011, 05:16:19 pm
If the Liberals ever want to win again they'll have to adopt Brison's policies.

Well, Rae did give him total authority over economic policy and everyone defers to him. They'll do anything for Brison but vote for him as leader.

Here's what he wrote on policy for the Post back in May.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/05/30/scott-brison-how-the-liberals-might-yet-be-saved/

Rae publicly investing him with economic authority.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/Liberals+need+more+than+talk/5685207/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2011, 05:43:12 pm
Anyways, for now the field is confined to LeBlanc and McGuinty with LeBlanc the favorite. In the primaries I say BC is up for grabs, McGuinty sweeps the Prairies and Ontario, LeBlanc wins Quebec and the Atlantic provinces.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on November 27, 2011, 06:48:52 pm
I agree Brison's policies would help the Liberals, but the problem is support for those policies in the party is mostly in areas the party has a weak membership and has lost ground in.  During the 90s when the Liberals were strong throughout Ontario, not just the 416 area code and averaging close to 25% in the West (not enough to win seats, but certainly a much stronger base than they have now in the West) those policies would have been an easier sell.  A lot of Liberals still reminisce back to the Trudeau era of an activist government, despite the fact the NDP has largely cornered that market today and the percentage of the population who supports this is not as large as it once was.  Sure we may support a more activist government than the US has, but that doesn't mean going to the extreme of the 60s or 70s either. 

As for Karygiannis, he is not well know nationally and I don't think he could win and never mind I think the primary system makes it a lot more difficult for him than the previous one.  Under the older system, he just has to sign up a huge number of instant members from a certain cultural community, which he can do quite easily, and then when it comes time to playing kingmaker, he has enough members to influence the final outcome.  But with the primary system I doubt he will go far.  And this is a good thing, as he is a very sleazy politician much like Joe Volpe was whom I heard some Liberals were actually happy to see him lose his seat last election.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2011, 07:18:46 pm
Karygiannis: Has anyone mentioned him as leadership material? If so, 'twud be news to me.

Another good idea would be appointing regional lieutenants on the Quebec model for both Prairie and Atlantic provinces. Lamoureux can take the Prairies, Trudeau Quebec and perhaps John McKay (because Brison has his hands full) for Atlantic.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on November 27, 2011, 07:25:46 pm
Why people think than Trudeau will be an asset outside of Montreal?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2011, 07:48:17 pm
Why people think than Trudeau will be an asset outside of Montreal?

He's good at organization, fundraising and media- which is what the lieutenant does. When there was polled "who would make a good Liberal leader" both now and in 2007, his Quebec favourables were, well... in line with the national trend. I'll try and find the polls for you.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on November 28, 2011, 01:05:48 am
Why people think than Trudeau will be an asset outside of Montreal?
  If anything I think he would be better outside of Quebec.  Lets remember the Trudeau name is still quite popular in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.  By contrast the two provinces where Pierre Trudeau had the highest negative ratings were Alberta and Quebec albeit for different reasons (in the former for the National Energy Program and later for repatriating the constitution without Quebec's approval). 


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 29, 2011, 10:13:44 pm
All we need is Hebert to endorse the idea before Rae 4 Permanent becomes a Pundit Consensus. I usually agree with MacDonald, but not this time. Brison can't be nominated and LeBland is probably marginally better than McGuinty.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/opinion/MacDonald+Rumours+Liberals+demise+greatly+exaggerated/5785669/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 01, 2011, 10:51:26 pm
IMO, the candidates should pledge to muzzle Tequila Sheila after that bizarre trollish rant of hers in the Hill Times.

Also, looks like Kennedy doesn't see his thumping as an obstacle. The problem is that there are no vacant seats in Ontario for him to run in should he win unless McCallum retires voluntarily and Kennedy tries to capture it. If Kennedy does enter, then the soft prog wing will fracture between he and Kodak- plus Trudeau stays neutral because he's close to both of them.

http://www.gerardkennedy.liberal.ca/



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 03, 2011, 10:33:11 pm
Leading policy resolutions.

http://convention.liberal.ca/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 03, 2011, 10:38:44 pm
http://convention.liberal.ca/lpc-governance/18-democratic-renewal/
http://convention.liberal.ca/governance/21-electoral-reform/
http://convention.liberal.ca/governance/79-preferential-balloting-system/

I strongly back all of these


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 03, 2011, 10:52:02 pm
http://convention.liberal.ca/lpc-governance/18-democratic-renewal/
http://convention.liberal.ca/governance/21-electoral-reform/
http://convention.liberal.ca/governance/79-preferential-balloting-system/

I strongly back all of these

Wouldn't electoral reform require a constitutional amendment? At any rate, most of these proposals look decent. Too bad you're stuck with President Copps for the next 2 years.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on December 04, 2011, 03:10:15 pm
Which person is "Kodak", and why?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on December 04, 2011, 04:56:06 pm
IMO, the candidates should pledge to muzzle Tequila Sheila after that bizarre trollish rant of hers in the Hill Times.

Also, looks like Kennedy doesn't see his thumping as an obstacle. The problem is that there are no vacant seats in Ontario for him to run in should he win unless McCallum retires voluntarily and Kennedy tries to capture it. If Kennedy does enter, then the soft prog wing will fracture between he and Kodak- plus Trudeau stays neutral because he's close to both of them.

http://www.gerardkennedy.liberal.ca/



A lot depends on the polls too.  The Liberals didn't win any of the 11 ridings by massive margins thus no guarantee they would win again, never mind the Tories always seem to either do really well in by-elections where they are competitive or bomb them where not competitive thus making it easier for the NDP.  My guess is their base is more motivated to show up so they benefit from lower turnouts while in ridings they stand no chance they put no resources into it, thus why they perform poorly.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 04, 2011, 05:09:39 pm
IMO, the candidates should pledge to muzzle Tequila Sheila after that bizarre trollish rant of hers in the Hill Times.

Also, looks like Kennedy doesn't see his thumping as an obstacle. The problem is that there are no vacant seats in Ontario for him to run in should he win unless McCallum retires voluntarily and Kennedy tries to capture it. If Kennedy does enter, then the soft prog wing will fracture between he and Kodak- plus Trudeau stays neutral because he's close to both of them.

http://www.gerardkennedy.liberal.ca/

He could run in some Atlantic seat, couldn't he? The Tories would be smart not to put up much of a challenge; if the Liberals stick around, it hurts the NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 04, 2011, 05:18:14 pm
So... what happens in the (obviously theoretical) scenario of a fresh election in 2012? Rae leads the Liberals to victory and then hands over in 2013? :P


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 04, 2011, 05:26:47 pm
I won't post anything from That Site here, but the new poll which has the Liberals tied with the Dippers shows only a small pro-Dipper seat gap.

Kennedy's seat: Judy Sgro probably won't need much inducement to vacate York West, which is close enough to Kennedy's old York South seat in the Legislature.

Atlantic: Only the Newfoundland ones are truly safe.

TGP: LeBlanc, because he has a one-way relationship with the media.

Minion: No idea. The NDP will have a new leader in March.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Holmes on December 04, 2011, 07:05:41 pm
Kennedy's seat: Judy Sgro probably won't need much inducement to vacate York West, which is close enough to Kennedy's old York South seat in the Legislature.

This would literally be a nightmare.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 04, 2011, 08:14:30 pm
Kennedy's seat: Judy Sgro probably won't need much inducement to vacate York West, which is close enough to Kennedy's old York South seat in the Legislature.

This would literally be a nightmare.

Why? She won by over 15.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on December 04, 2011, 08:55:37 pm
True York West is pretty safe, but by-elections are unpredictable so unless one wins by more than 30 points, it is a bit of a gamble and I think there were only 2 ridings nationally where the Liberals won by more than 30 points, both in Newfoundland & Laborador.  In addition their strength there is more a holdover from the ABC campaign Danny Williams ran so it remains to be seen how long this will last.  Off course if the Liberals are polling at over 30% nationally then they probably could risk one stepping down, but until they can stay above 30% for an extended period of time, it seems a bit risky.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 04, 2011, 10:09:10 pm
If Sgro leaves, I might run to replace her, and no I'm not joking.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 05, 2011, 11:43:17 am
All we need is Hebert to endorse the idea before Rae 4 Permanent becomes a Pundit Consensus.

Called it. If Rae runs, he wins the permanent leadership.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/337657/le-chant-du-cygne-de-bob-rae


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 05, 2011, 12:19:24 pm
I have no problem with Rae as leader so long as he adopts all of Brison's policies on anything dealing with any amount of money.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 05, 2011, 01:17:02 pm
I have no problem with Rae as leader so long as he adopts all of Brison's policies on anything dealing with any amount of money.

And adopting Trudeau's energy policy. But I doubt Brison can get elimination of capital gains tax through a convention where weed decriminalization is on the agenda.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201004/30/01-4276086-justin-trudeau-appuie-lexploitation-des-sables-bitumineux.php


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 05, 2011, 01:43:07 pm
Remember the CPC has a majority, that means if we want to win (and I want us to win) we need to take their seats. Taking every NDP seat still results in a CPC majority. We should focus on taking so many seats from the CPC that they are reduced below the NDP. If that means we have to run on a "right-wing" platform, than so be it. I can back that.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 05, 2011, 07:43:35 pm
Remember the CPC has a majority, that means if we want to win (and I want us to win) we need to take their seats. Taking every NDP seat still results in a CPC majority. We should focus on taking so many seats from the CPC that they are reduced below the NDP. If that means we have to run on a "right-wing" platform, than so be it. I can back that.

If the NDP collapses here in Quebec, it won't be Liberals who benefit. Either we Tories split ROQ booty with the Bloc or grab it all for ourselves. You guys get your Montreal-area seats (including mine) back.

Also, Hebert should know better than to say "anti-Rae Grits want Dalton McGuinty to run." Two sides of the same Establishment coin.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on December 05, 2011, 08:19:01 pm
I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 05, 2011, 08:25:08 pm
I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.

What specifically are you thinking of? If it's Adscam, I think only time will erode that.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on December 05, 2011, 08:28:34 pm
I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.

What specifically are you thinking of? If it's Adscam, I think only time will erode that.

They are seen as an Urban, Anglo party.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 05, 2011, 08:33:15 pm
I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.

What specifically are you thinking of? If it's Adscam, I think only time will erode that.

They are seen as an Urban, Anglo party.

And they weren't when Chretien was leader? Their stance on federalism hasn't changed since then either, so I wouldn't say that's the issue.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on December 06, 2011, 08:21:36 am
I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.

What specifically are you thinking of? If it's Adscam, I think only time will erode that.

They are seen as an Urban, Anglo party.

And they weren't when Chretien was leader? Their stance on federalism hasn't changed since then either, so I wouldn't say that's the issue.

In politics, all is relative. They looked much more pro-French than Reform or NDP before 2006.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 06, 2011, 04:52:32 pm
It's easy to forget that the Liberals actually won a plurality in Quebec in 2000.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 06, 2011, 07:23:38 pm
ROFL. Given that Hill Times crap she wrote a few weeks ago, Rat Pack indeed.

http://www.thestar.com/article/1097837--tim-harper-sheila-copps-reinvents-herself-as-agent-of-change


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on December 06, 2011, 07:31:04 pm
New Abacus poll says CPC 40%, NDP 31%, Liberals 18%...I guess dreaming of second place was fun for the Liberals while it lasted...


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 06, 2011, 07:37:04 pm
New Abacus poll says CPC 40%, NDP 31%, Liberals 18%...I guess dreaming of second place was fun for the Liberals while it lasted...

Abacus? I'll wait for CROP, Nanos or Leger, thx. Liberals haven't been that low for the past 5 months.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Holmes on December 06, 2011, 07:50:11 pm
Of all things going on in Canadian politics right now, federal election polls are the most meaningless.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 06, 2011, 07:53:40 pm
Of all things going on in Canadian politics right now, federal election polls are the most meaningless.

Ottawa CW seems to be that Rae4P is a done deal, just awaiting the formal announcement after Copps is elected and repeals that rule.

So forum Grits, how would you guys react if Rae run for permanent? I'm confident in predicting that neither LeBlanc nor McGuinty, especially LeBlanc, would run in said scenario.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 06, 2011, 08:43:35 pm
This is a bad thing. They just had an Anglo leader. They can't have another one again.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 06, 2011, 08:57:12 pm
This is a bad thing. They just had an Anglo leader. They can't have another one again.

Alternation for its own sake is long obsolete, but it always has a way of imposing itself even when better-qualified candidates of the other linguistic group are available. See 2006 for details. There are much better reasons to oppose Rae's potential candidacy than his mother tongue. Unless you think LeBlanc is genuinely the best candidate for non-linguistic reasons.
 


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on December 06, 2011, 10:47:52 pm

Ottawa CW seems to be that Rae4P is a done deal, just awaiting the formal announcement after Copps is elected and repeals that rule.


There is no "rule" to repeal. There is nothing in the Liberal Party constitution that says that an interim leader cannot run for the permanent leadership of the party. Bob Rae solemnly swore on a stack of Bibles that he would never run for the permanent leadership of the party if he could be interim leader. People grudgingly let him have the interim job because they took him at his word that he had absolutely no interest in running for the permanent job.

If he decides to run for the leadership he will not be breaking any "rule". He will just be breaking his word and exposing himself as a LIAR.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 06, 2011, 11:46:24 pm
You are right that this is exactly how the Tories would frame it.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 07, 2011, 12:03:39 am
This is a bad thing. They just had an Anglo leader. They can't have another one again.

Alternation for its own sake is long obsolete, but it always has a way of imposing itself even when better-qualified candidates of the other linguistic group are available. See 2006 for details. There are much better reasons to oppose Rae's potential candidacy than his mother tongue. Unless you think LeBlanc is genuinely the best candidate for non-linguistic reasons.

Oh, I don't care about the rule. It just amuses me as a tradition.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Holmes on December 07, 2011, 08:17:37 am
Rae as leader is probably the worst idea ever. They'll get nowhere in Ontario, and will just drag the NDP down with them there, too. Unless that's their objective. Who knows with them? The media is obsessed with the guy.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 07, 2011, 09:18:02 am
Rae as leader is probably the worst idea ever. They'll get nowhere in Ontario, and will just drag the NDP down with them there, too. Unless that's their objective. Who knows with them? The media is obsessed with the guy.

One of 3 reasons: a) because he keeps referring to his pledge instead of making an unconditional statement b) the media wants to start something with nothing c) media knows something we don't. I'd say a combination of A & B myself.

Teddy: Anti-Rae material hardly needs such a minor addition to it.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 07, 2011, 01:40:38 pm
This is a bad thing. They just had an Anglo leader. They can't have another one again.

Alternation for its own sake is long obsolete, but it always has a way of imposing itself even when better-qualified candidates of the other linguistic group are available. See 2006 for details. There are much better reasons to oppose Rae's potential candidacy than his mother tongue. Unless you think LeBlanc is genuinely the best candidate for non-linguistic reasons.

Oh, I don't care about the rule. It just amuses me as a tradition.
It's better than this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bald_%E2%80%93_hairy


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 07, 2011, 03:59:28 pm
Another Rae article from Le Devoir. We'd all really appreciate it if the media would pay attention to actual candidates like Kennedy, LeBlanc and David McGuinty.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/337811/bob-rae-ne-souhaite-pas-etre-le-chef-permanent-du-parti-liberal-du-canada


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 07, 2011, 08:00:16 pm
OK forum Grits, who's your choice for leader in a Kennedy/LeBlanc/(David) McGuinty race. I'd say Kennedy is your best shot myself. Only possible negative is being tied to the OLP, but a) no one remembers it b) he left before Dad really went downhill.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on December 07, 2011, 09:55:50 pm
Rae wouldn't be nearly the disaster that is often suggested; the situation with him in Ontario is  complicated.

Even in his 1995 loss NDP got a higher % of the vote in Ontario than in any subsequent provincial or federal election until the breakthrough this year, and exceeded what was considered the NDP "base" during the decade 2000-2010. And given that he was very unpopular with certain sections of his own party, this number probably slightly underestimates the degree to which he was still then pulling in some votes from outside the party's core. And he has rehabilitated his image to some degree since that time in a lot of ways.

The private-sector industrial unions, remember, supported the social contract, and the labour chaos was mostly public-sector; given the recession the party did pretty badly in '95 in industrial areas, but he's not personally toxic there. And urban left-of-centre non-trade-unionists don't particularly dislike the guy.

The personal problems with Rae are concentrated among (a) a small group of very partisan NDP'ers who won't vote Liberal anyway; (b) public sector workers like teachers, who are often the base of the non-Tory vote in Tory areas; and (c) the large section of the population that is firmly anti-NDP, (whether loyally Tory or not) and generally regard the 1990-1995 period as a disaster.

Obviously (c) and to some degree (b) are serious problems, but surely the first step for the party has to be getting NDP votes back - no matter how unlikely you think a return to Lib/Con is, it's surely more likely than a Lib/NDP system. And Rae is probably better than the alternatives among many of the voters these parties actually compete over.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 07, 2011, 10:56:43 pm
The problem is that there are a lot more non-NDP votes than NDP votes. If the Liberals want to remain relevant, they need to win back the ridings in Ontario that the Tories have taken from them. Bob Rae will actively hurt them there.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on December 08, 2011, 12:10:58 am
The Liberals have actually lost far more votes to the Tories in Ontario over the past decade than they have to the NDP. Those are the votes they need to win back. In 2004 the Tories took 31% in Ontario and this soared to 45% in 2011 ALL from the Liberals. During the same period the NDP vote went from 18% in 2004 to 26% in 2011.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on December 08, 2011, 08:15:59 am
I agree, the Liberals need to have a leader who is definetly moderate/centre right... they need to win back those who bolted to the Tories and cost them prime seats in ontario. I think their days of trying to "out-ndp-the-ndp" are over. I think especially now and by 2015 the tories will continue to look far-right win and the Liberals could win back some ground in ontario and BC in those moderate, urban Centre Right areas; affluent but socially progressive.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 08, 2011, 09:18:55 am
I agree, the Liberals need to have a leader who is definetly moderate/centre right... they need to win back those who bolted to the Tories and cost them prime seats in ontario. I think their days of trying to "out-ndp-the-ndp" are over. I think especially now and by 2015 the tories will continue to look far-right win and the Liberals could win back some ground in ontario and BC in those moderate, urban Centre Right areas; affluent but socially progressive.

Then the choice is David McGuinty, since Scott Brison cannot be nominated. Or you have a centre-left leader who adopts Brison's manifesto (which I posted a while back), i.e. Kennedy or LeBlanc. Pearson and Sharp, PET and Turner, Chretien and Martin provide ample precedent.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 08, 2011, 09:33:16 am
I don't know what is up with you and Brison. Brison can be nominated, will be nominated, and will win.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on December 08, 2011, 09:38:32 am
I agree, the Liberals need to have a leader who is definetly moderate/centre right... they need to win back those who bolted to the Tories and cost them prime seats in ontario. I think their days of trying to "out-ndp-the-ndp" are over. I think especially now and by 2015 the tories will continue to look far-right win and the Liberals could win back some ground in ontario and BC in those moderate, urban Centre Right areas; affluent but socially progressive.

Then the choice is David McGuinty, since Scott Brison cannot be nominated. Or you have a centre-left leader who adopts Brison's manifesto (which I posted a while back), i.e. Kennedy or LeBlanc. Pearson and Sharp, PET and Turner, Chretien and Martin provide ample precedent.

Given what the Chrétien-Martin "cold" feud did to the party, I'm not sure it is a good model.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 08, 2011, 09:43:43 am
Teddy, I'm hardly anti-Brison. But given 2006 (which still puzzles me in some ways 5 years later), I'll believe it when I see it.

CSD: So the best comparison is with Sharp, and I'll leave it there.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 08, 2011, 10:50:11 am
Endorsements...

Eyking: Brison or McGuinty, depending who runs.

Dion: Kennedy.

Fry: Kennedy.

Scarpaleggia: Kennedy.

Neville: Not McGuinty.

Sgro: LeBlanc or Kennedy.

Coderre: LeBlanc

Easter: McGuinty

Cuzner: LeBlanc

Bennett: Kennedy

Goodale: Neutral

Cotler: No idea.

Trudeau: Neutral

Chretien: LeBlanc

Martin: Neutral



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 12, 2011, 10:31:30 am
Maybe. Though Kennedy's the only candidate with any kind of retail skills.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lysiane-gagnon/are-primaries-the-spark-for-liberal-spirit/article2266175/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 12, 2011, 10:32:17 am
Is Kennedy good enough with "The French"? Last I heard he was somewhere between Dewar and Chisholm.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 12, 2011, 10:42:35 am
Wah wah what? Kennedy is fluent (Brison is Harper-style borderline IIRC) but like Rae, the accent is quite noticeable.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on December 12, 2011, 12:52:37 pm
Maybe Kennedy's French is better now, but it stank like sh**t when he ran for Liberal leader in 2006. He was billed as being fluently bilingual and then when he opened his mouth in the leaders debates - it turned out that his French was dreadful.

One can be forgiven for not speaking perfect French, but its a big problem when someone boasts about being perfectly bilingual and it turns out that they speak French like my ass chews gum!


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 12, 2011, 03:36:40 pm
Maybe Kennedy's French is better now, but it stank like sh**t when he ran for Liberal leader in 2006. He was billed as being fluently bilingual and then when he opened his mouth in the leaders debates - it turned out that his French was dreadful.

One can be forgiven for not speaking perfect French, but its a big problem when someone boasts about being perfectly bilingual and it turns out that they speak French like my ass chews gum!

The only one who meets the platinum standard of these contenders is LeBlanc.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 13, 2011, 05:03:22 pm
No Quebec candidates this time, though whoever wins will be at least functionally bilingual.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/quebec-born-leaders-give-federal-parties-a-significant-electoral-edge/article2267922/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 15, 2011, 08:36:40 am
I'll believe that when I see it, given his very emphatic "a la prochaine" response to this question.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2011/12/15/lawrence-martin-trudeaus-stinkbomb-fits-the-cursed-times/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 19, 2011, 02:25:49 pm
No, just no. Though I'll gladly exchange both MacKay and Prentice for Brison. Who at least is pushing the Grits where they need to be to regain those lost centrist/centre-right votes.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Michael+Tandt+Liberal+Party+leftward+drift+could+open+doors+Tories/5880258/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 21, 2011, 02:35:30 pm
Teddy, how would your NDP ranking system grade Kennedy, LeBland and David McGuinty?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 21, 2011, 03:57:52 pm
I would rank the current race as:

Trudeau - A+
Dull McG - A+
LeBland - A-
Dav McG - B+
Kennedy - B

with no changes if the top 2 decide not to run (and I doubt that Dullton will)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 21, 2011, 04:13:23 pm
The top 2 have already decided not to run.  Bilingualism aside, I would definitely rank Kennedy higher than LeBland. Reasons: experience, name ID, has a spine and personality.

Also, I'd put Trudeau down at B+ because he lacks the requisite experience. LeBland gets downgraded a notch, but for the reasons I mentioned earlier.

More on LeBland:

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/989874--hepburn-liberals-look-to-trudeau-and-leblanc


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 24, 2011, 07:19:01 pm
Why hasn't Elections Canada called in the debt yet?

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/339016/course-a-la-chefferie-en-2006-encore-des-dettes-chez-les-liberaux

Also, LOL at Dad as the keynoter.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 25, 2011, 11:41:42 am
No. Just no.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201112/25/01-4480871-direction-du-plc-marc-garneau-ne-dit-pas-non.php


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 26, 2011, 02:05:29 pm
Teddy, how does Garneau rate?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 26, 2011, 03:46:00 pm
Poorly


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 26, 2011, 03:58:20 pm
On that we agree. Does anyone know much about LeBland other than what's in that Bob Hepburn op-ed I posted? Total unknown.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 26, 2011, 04:32:31 pm
I've met him. He's an idiot.

Wrzesneysky is someone I hope runs.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 26, 2011, 05:08:17 pm
I get Dion vibes from LeBland. Weak, indecisive, smart in a nonpolitical sense (the man is an HLS alumnus after all) no personality but even less of a spine. Plus being a total Chretien tool. Back in May, I read in the Globe that he'd been aggressively courting the Martin crowd to sand down his own uber-Chretienite image. Those people need to be ejected, not courted. Which is precisely Wrzesneysky's message.

However, I don't think Wrzesneysky can win. Too mavericky and unknown. Linguistic difficulties aside, I still see Kennedy as the best option.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 29, 2011, 10:30:53 am
Garneau sounds awfully like a candidate. Who else occasionally gets a sinking feeling that once Tequila Sheila becomes president and repeals that leadership contest rule, Rae will jump in?

http://blogs.canada.com/2011/12/28/garneau-considers-stepping-into-the-ring/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 30, 2011, 10:06:58 pm
Rae doesn't rule out a run. I'm now changing my mind: he will run if the rules change. Who runs against him is another question. LeBlanc certainly not, BW probably, dunno about Kennedy.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/rae-wont-rule-out-bid-for-permanent-liberal-leadership/article2287550/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 30, 2011, 10:24:41 pm
A Rae run seems inevitable at this point.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 30, 2011, 10:34:53 pm
If Tequila Sheila wins the presidency then yep, Rae's running. So we'll know in 13 days from now. He has to convince delegates that his numbers won't tank once Harper's Permanent Campaign machine starts its Blitzkrieg. If he does, then the permanent leadership is his to lose.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 01, 2012, 05:55:33 pm
Could any of them realistically drag them back to second or even... government?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 01, 2012, 06:05:40 pm
Could any of them realistically drag them back to second or even... government?

I think Rae, Kennedy or LeBlanc, with the right assistance from outside circumstances, certainly could regain OO. Government- not happening.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 01, 2012, 10:49:25 pm
Guys, if Rae runs, what happens to endorsements? Everyone knows that Rae likely wins if he runs, but on the other hand, there are personal obligations to other candidates...


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 04, 2012, 12:23:17 pm
Copps gets a bunch of voices from the past- Axworthy, Campagnolo, Fox. Self-parodic, but maybe not so much given that the man she wants to replace had his national debut as a Turner co-chair in '84.

MacDonald thinks Rae is the best caucus member for permanent.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/look%2Binto%2Bcrystal%2Bball%2BLiberal%2Bleadership%2Braces/5942990/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 05, 2012, 11:33:48 am
Both leading presidential candidates would allow Rae to run, so moving him into the "Likely Yes" category.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/copps-and-crawley-take-the-lead-in-race-for-liberal-presidency/article2291944/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 06, 2012, 11:26:09 pm
Did anyone else hear about LeBland not running? Not that I expected him to run if Rae did...

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/2012+about+ideas+unless/5954506/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 09, 2012, 01:04:34 pm
Hopefully Crawley wins, but I suspect Tequila Sheila will.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/2012/01/09/crawley-could-%E2%80%98fundamentally-modernize%E2%80%99-liberal-party-copps-seen-as-%E2%80%98storm/29197?page_requested=1


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on January 09, 2012, 01:16:56 pm
Harper on the Liberal "lemmings"

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/liberal-lemmings-headed-off-cliff-with-rae-tories-charge/article2295840/

we saw how bad any coronation talk turns out for the Liberals... and the NDP seems to be having issues with that idea of a "coronation" in reference to Topp (who i wont vote for). I give Rae some props for defending his 90s government.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 09, 2012, 01:27:18 pm
The thing is, of those who are likely running Rae is second only to Kennedy. The other candidates lack skill and/or spine.

Rae's government: So toxic that people actively cited it as a reason not to vote NDP federally 16 years after Rae left Queen's Park. He should focus on a redemption narrative rather than defending the electorally indefensible.

Otherwise, I think a Rae-Kennedy-BW contest would be a vigorous and healthy one for the party.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 09, 2012, 02:29:45 pm
Is Rae's Ontario government a bit like how the North of England see the Conservatives since Thatcher?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 09, 2012, 02:32:53 pm
Is Rae's Ontario government a bit like how the North of England see the Conservatives since Thatcher?

No, that would be how people tend to view the Harris government.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on January 09, 2012, 02:54:33 pm
Is Rae's Ontario government a bit like how the North of England see the Conservatives since Thatcher?

No, that would be how people tend to view the Harris government.

Depends what side of the coin your on i suppose... Rae is despised by the right for obvious reasons, even if his government walked on water he would still be hated by neo-cons.
Rae is pitied by many in the NDP and moderates; the media and corporations were out to get him from the start, the perfect storm happened while in government (recession, NAFTA) many just believe the lies that Rae was the devil when he was just trying to get through it.
Rae is hated by some in the NDP (the Kromos NDPers)... mainly cause hes backed down, broke promises and went against unions, the base. 2011 was seen as the first real time the party had shed the Rae era stigma so the ONDP was/has been hurt by Rae even thought he long ago ran to the Liberals.
(thats how i see it here)

Rae is stuck with this, my gut says that the LPC will lose seats in Ontario if Rae runs, not many but some... Cause i think some segment of Ontario would have the same hate on him as those in North England have for Thatcher.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 09, 2012, 03:12:07 pm
Recent polls show that the Grits are actually in second place in Ontario, usually in the low 30s. Whether that holds once Dippers pick a new leader and our own Permanent Campaign emerges from its current hibernatory state is debatable. Hence why Kennedy is their best choice.

The question is, who runs if Rae does? BW certainly does, Kennedy probably. I'm all but certain that LeBland, Garneau and (David) McGuinty wouldn't run.

Also quite sure that both of those I'd classify as "leaning no"- Brison and Coderre- won't run either. One because he's indispensable in his current role, the other because he's a useless loudmouth.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 09, 2012, 03:47:46 pm
Apps: Rae would have to resign as interim by October latest if he wants to run. In which case Garneau would have to be interim. Is Carolyn Bennett's French OK? She'd be another good choice for interim if she wanted it.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/outgoing-president-lays-out-road-map-for-rae-to-seek-liberal-crown/article2296324/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 09, 2012, 11:09:32 pm
This party is slowly being taken over by those who think Trudeau was a God.

I thought we had shaken that off in the 90's.

I think I'm going to be ill.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 09, 2012, 11:23:48 pm
Rae hails from that part of the Establishment, but he doesn't let it affect his political judgment. Tequila Sheila and LeBland... different story entirely. Anyways, let's not pantsh**t. All the president does is fundraise and preside over Board meetings.


PET as a god? Uhh, not for the past 4 decades.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: canadian1 on January 10, 2012, 04:30:26 pm
Apps: Rae would have to resign as interim by October latest if he wants to run. In which case Garneau would have to be interim. Is Carolyn Bennett's French OK? She'd be another good choice for interim if she wanted it.

I'm not sure if this quote still applies, but here's a French professor from the University of Ottawa on Bennett's French as it was in 2006 (when she briefly ran for the brass ring):

"But Knoerr saved her harshest judgement for another Toronto-based candidate, Carolyn Bennett. The Toronto MP had a poor grasp of both vocabulary and grammar. The professor said a francophone "would last about 15 seconds listening to her."-- CTV News


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 10, 2012, 04:43:45 pm
So Garneau it is. Unless she would delegate all French questions to Coderre, Garneau or Trudeau.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 10, 2012, 05:00:05 pm
Also, can you PM me the rest of that article? I'd like to refresh myself on how bad Kennedy's and Brison's French was at the time.

Edit: Never mind. Found it. Brison's French is the same as Rae's and Harper's.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 10, 2012, 05:32:59 pm
Bilingualism chart of likely candidates, in alphabetical order. If anyone has recent info on Kennedy and McGuinty, please do tell.

Garneau: A+
Kennedy: D?
LeBland: A+
McGuinty: B?
Rae: B+
BW: F



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 11, 2012, 11:14:23 am
Thankfully morons who think the Chretien crowd should run are in the fringe minority.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/01/10/liberals-best-calling-card-for-leader-is-rae-say-grits/29229?page_requested=1


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 11, 2012, 08:49:03 pm
Does Rae's fiery campaign-style speech to caucus suggest a leadership run? Media seems to thinks so.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/01/11/pol-liberal-caucus.html

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/11/john-ivison-bob-rae-finding-liberal-leadership-ambition-hard-to-hide/#more-63504


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 12, 2012, 02:01:56 pm
Raemania is now a meme.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1114184--bob-rae-talks-of-good-times-not-long-time-as-liberal-party-leader

http://www.thestar.com/article/1114234--walkom-how-bob-rae-has-kept-the-near-dead-liberal-party-alive

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/should-rae-have-his-day-as-liberal-leader/article2299826/

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201201/11/01-4484946-direction-du-plc-bob-rae-relance-les-rumeurs.php


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 12, 2012, 04:00:21 pm
When do resident Grits expect this contest to formally kick off? I personally find it more interesting than the NDP one...

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/01/12/bob-rae-liberal-leadership_n_1201246.html?ref=canada-politics


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 12, 2012, 08:07:41 pm
Add Holland to the list.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/01/12/bob-rae-liberal-leadership_n_1201246.html?ref=canada


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 13, 2012, 12:31:37 pm
Causes of the Quebec decline: lack of policy clarity, lack of leadership, Adscam. 2/3 are now fixed, only time can heal the third.

http://www.lactualite.com/politique/les-nouveaux-habits-du-plc


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 13, 2012, 10:46:15 pm
McGuinty and Garneau are still considering bids.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/13/john-ivison-raes-lack-of-clarity-could-threaten-liberal-unity/

More Raemania.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1115457--hebert-the-liberals-search-for-a-leader-could-quickly-become-frantic-as-there-is-no-ready-made-alternative-to-bob-rae

http://www.canada.com/Maher%2BLiberal%2Bwheel%2Bmoving%2Bover/5993836/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 14, 2012, 03:54:49 pm
David McGuinty: Get back to me in a few months.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/david-mcguinty-mulls-liberal-leadership-bid-at-convention/article2302861/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 15, 2012, 03:22:49 pm
President Crawley it is.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on January 15, 2012, 08:46:51 pm
I read in the paper today that David McGuinty would still run even if his brother, Dalton runs. That would awesome, it would be the Milliband battle all over again.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 15, 2012, 08:53:57 pm
In their case, David was clearly (as Lab is now painfully aware of) the best candidate. On this side of the pond, not so much. Why none of the pundits ever mention Gerard Kennedy mystifies me, since he clearly wants to run and IMO is the best candidate among the likelies.

If Rae doesn't get in, then Kennedy's strongest competitor is LeBland. I've never seen someone even try to make a case that he'd be a good leader. On paper yes, in practice absolutely not.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 15, 2012, 10:51:46 pm
LeBlanc can best be defined as "aloof", at least in person.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 16, 2012, 12:44:41 pm
Two others I saw mentioned: Martin Cauchon and Martha Hall Findlay. He's a discredited voice from the past, she lost her seat and is too inexperienced. (Though MHF has long been one of my favourite Grits)

LeBland: Totally agreed. Plus the guy's as awkward as Al Gore. There's this picture on the Net where he and Trudeau are walking through a Commons corridor, photographer shows up and next thing you know "spontaneous" hug when the picture's snapped. LeBlanc's face screams excessive, faux mirth, Trudeau smiling but his eyes say "rolleyes." If that's how he acts with his BFF, imagine transplanting that to the campaign trail. Makes the PM's sweater vests look good in comparison.

Most importantly, LeBland's a wimp like Ed Miliband. And that's why he can never be leader. Dion can tell you what the PM does to wimps.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 16, 2012, 03:36:40 pm
A la prochaine. Though to be fair, there's not much of substance to be said with his current portfolio. If Rae wants to help him out, give him Natural Resources, where he does deliver crystal-clear centrism.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/16/john-ivison-justin-needs-more-than-a-moustache-to-qualify-as-a-leader/

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201004/30/01-4276086-justin-trudeau-appuie-lexploitation-des-sables-bitumineux.php


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 16, 2012, 03:43:31 pm
What we need in a leader is the intangibles. People often support or oppose a party and when you ask them why, even with specific questions, they say "I don't know" and that's the truth, they really do not know. It's the leader or party's ability to invoke an emotion. Trudeau evokes emotion, and thus, would be a good leader, because the emotions he evokes are positive. Compare this to Iggy and Dion, who evoked negative emotions.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 16, 2012, 03:52:20 pm
You need policy substance as well. Kennedy would also do well in Ontario and Quebec, plus generally gets positive reaction. Trudeau knows he needs more experience and has always said so since he arrived on the Hill. I agree with you that with time and experience, he'll be a good leader (with the electoral success that entails) but not now.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on January 16, 2012, 07:40:39 pm
Has anyone used the phrase "Yesterday's Baby" re Sheila Copps?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 16, 2012, 07:47:09 pm
Has anyone used the phrase "Yesterday's Baby" re Sheila Copps?

She's certainly a relic of the past who hasn't changed one iota from her Rat Pack days. (See her Hill Times article accusing Kenney, Moore and Baird of being closeted and Harper forcing them to remain closeted) But we call her Tequila Sheila.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 17, 2012, 12:42:59 pm
True that, but he also has baggage. Careerists always do a good job.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/bob-raes-advantage-hes-a-political-careerist/article2304310/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on January 17, 2012, 01:02:03 pm
Has anyone used the phrase "Yesterday's Baby" re Sheila Copps?

She's certainly a relic of the past who hasn't changed one iota from her Rat Pack days. (See her Hill Times article accusing Kenney, Moore and Baird of being closeted and Harper forcing them to remain closeted) But we call her Tequila Sheila.



I know about Baird (everyone knows he's gay, even if he never has "come out'; just like our mayor... the two used to be college room mates), but Moore is married. And Kenney... I think he voted against SSM (unlike the other 2)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on January 17, 2012, 01:07:58 pm
... it was common to run into Baird at Woody's and Agostino at Buddies back in the day... both are gay bars in TO

Anywho... what do folks think the decision to have "supporters" vote for the leader this time federally, just like they did in the Alberta Liberal race? (knowing the outcome of that one, do y'all think that was a good move by the Grits?)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on January 17, 2012, 01:22:55 pm
While Baird doesn't march in our gay pride parade, he does participate in the festivities. I heard he tried to pick up young men after the parade. (My former room mate, who was a homocon (gay conservative, I apologize if this term is offensive), was trying to get Baird to notice him).

Anyways, as for letting "supporters" vote, it allows for a group of people to gang up and vote for the most right wing candidate so that the Liberals dont get too close to the NDP. 


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 17, 2012, 01:54:09 pm
I think the system should have been more properly 2-tiered, and you get prioritized for membership if you're a "supporter" for a given period of time (3-4 yrs?). Other than that, no real objections.

NDP: The analysis shows that especially in Ontario, they lost precisely because of NDP-lite policy (C&T. Case closed.). Regardless of who wins, they're still operating within the Blue Liberal parameters set by Brison. Rae, Kennedy, Garneau, LeBlanc are all on the party's centre-left, and David McGuinty on the centre-right. No wild swings either way.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on January 17, 2012, 02:00:16 pm
Agreed, why vote NDP-Lite when you can vote NDP...

Frankly the Liberals need to focus on winning back those CR voters who bolted to the tories... particularly in those inner-suburb ridings in TO and the 905 area. I think the days of campaigning on the left, governing from the right is over... play what your good at; the middle ground.

We will see what happens in Alberta now that they have a RedTory leader... might not be the best since things don't look good for them there.

... image a Kennedy/Nash showdown in PHP where they are both Leaders? has that ever happened before?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 17, 2012, 02:18:06 pm
PHP: Closest we've gotten to that was when King trounced Dief in 1926 in Prince Albert, though of course no one knew Dief would become PM at that stage.

I think the best strategy would be an Ontario/BC one. Quebec is also important, but not decisively so for OO.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on January 17, 2012, 08:41:22 pm
Also re "clashes of leaders": in Ontario, Frank De Jong of the Greens ran against Premier Ernie Eves in '03, if stuff like that counts.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 17, 2012, 08:47:57 pm
I know Kinsella has long become a self-parody, but he thinks Rae's egomania will be a major image handicap in the event he keeps his job. Personally I digress somewhat: Rae is an egomaniac but unlike his friend Iggy, he does a better job of concealing it.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 17, 2012, 09:01:32 pm
Why is the Alberta Liberal leader's last name Sherman? Is he Anglo-Indian?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 17, 2012, 09:06:42 pm
Why is the Alberta Liberal leader's last name Sherman? Is he Anglo-Indian?

Yes.

Last month I noticed that Gerard Kennedy had a domain name registered, which back then said "coming soon." Now it's blank. Since then he's publicly stated consideration of a run, but still... interesting that he wanted to get going so early. Given Rae's long lead, can't blame him.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 18, 2012, 11:44:37 am
Again, no mention of Brison or Kennedy.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/bob-rae-and-beyond-potential-contenders-for-the-top-liberal-job/article2306439/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 18, 2012, 11:52:27 am
No kidding.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Michael+Tandt+duplicity+leadership+must/6011809/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on January 18, 2012, 12:08:23 pm
Robertson? Nenshi? really... are they members? Robertson i'd see go with the NDP over the Liberals but thats absed on past and well that didn't work in the NDPs advantage with Dosanj. But Robertson best beware, as LSD is showing, Dippers can't handle being spurned :P


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 18, 2012, 12:15:00 pm
That's just fluff, ditto for Cauchon.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on January 18, 2012, 12:16:13 pm
Robertson is an NDPer; he was an NDP MLA. Unless he has switched parties, but why?

It wouldn't surprise me if Nenshi is a Liberal. He is certainly quite Progressive.  I'd rather not know if he's a Liberal, because I like him, and I don't want to have a negative view of him. (I'd still support him though, since it's Calgary, and having even a Liberal mayor there is huge).


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 18, 2012, 12:19:51 pm
So how bad will the anti-Rae backlash be when he runs? I'm guessing it will be mitigated somewhat out of gratefulness for putting them back on a path to recovery, plus retaining OO status de facto if not de jure.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 18, 2012, 02:19:14 pm
Frank Graves: Rae is actually popular, even in Ontario. Let's see if that holds up once the Permanent Campaign revs up again.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/jeffrey-simpson/why-harper-is-tuning-out-the-premiers/article2305684/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on January 18, 2012, 07:24:57 pm
Also re "clashes of leaders": in Ontario, Frank De Jong of the Greens ran against Premier Ernie Eves in '03, if stuff like that counts.

Oh, and I forgot: the very next year, federally--GP leader Jim Harris ran against NDP leader Jack Layton (and Grit incumbent Dennis Mills) in Toronto-Danforth.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 18, 2012, 07:27:15 pm
Back OT: What will Grit activists' reaction be to a Rae run?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on January 18, 2012, 07:29:09 pm
It wouldn't surprise me if Nenshi is a Liberal. He is certainly quite Progressive.  I'd rather not know if he's a Liberal, because I like him, and I don't want to have a negative view of him. (I'd still support him though, since it's Calgary, and having even a Liberal mayor there is huge).

Actually, Nenshi's predecessor, Dave Bronconnier, was also a Liberal--as was (I think) his predecessor Al Duerr (and even Ralph Klein was Liberal-affiliated before he jumped to the PCs and the legislature).  For some reason, Calgary's mayoral profile quite profoundly contradicts its federal-provincial legislative profile.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 18, 2012, 07:51:19 pm
Calgary is liberal compared to rural Alberta.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 18, 2012, 08:20:28 pm
Have any Grits here committed to a candidate yet?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 18, 2012, 08:48:27 pm
Hepburn: No alternative to Rae. Thing is, I doubt Liberals would hold Kennedy's loss of his seat against him- it was out of his control. We've already discussed why Garneau and LeBland are bad choices, so won't relitigate that.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1117815--if-not-bob-rae-as-liberal-leader-who-s-the-next-best-choice



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on January 18, 2012, 11:33:45 pm
It wouldn't surprise me if Nenshi is a Liberal. He is certainly quite Progressive.  I'd rather not know if he's a Liberal, because I like him, and I don't want to have a negative view of him. (I'd still support him though, since it's Calgary, and having even a Liberal mayor there is huge).

Actually, Nenshi's predecessor, Dave Bronconnier, was also a Liberal--as was (I think) his predecessor Al Duerr (and even Ralph Klein was Liberal-affiliated before he jumped to the PCs and the legislature).  For some reason, Calgary's mayoral profile quite profoundly contradicts its federal-provincial legislative profile.

No where else for Liberals to go, but municipal politics?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Smid on January 19, 2012, 12:53:45 am
It wouldn't surprise me if Nenshi is a Liberal. He is certainly quite Progressive.  I'd rather not know if he's a Liberal, because I like him, and I don't want to have a negative view of him. (I'd still support him though, since it's Calgary, and having even a Liberal mayor there is huge).

Actually, Nenshi's predecessor, Dave Bronconnier, was also a Liberal--as was (I think) his predecessor Al Duerr (and even Ralph Klein was Liberal-affiliated before he jumped to the PCs and the legislature).  For some reason, Calgary's mayoral profile quite profoundly contradicts its federal-provincial legislative profile.

No where else for Liberals to go, but municipal politics?

I think municipal politics are seen as less partisan, so conservative voters are willing to vote for good candidates with policies and ideas for improving the city, regardless of political persuasion. That's the impression I've got from some Albertan tories, anyway.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on January 19, 2012, 03:00:46 am
I'm still scratching my head as to what happened in 2010 that saw Calgary elect Nenshi and Toronto elect Rob Ford.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 19, 2012, 09:29:01 am
Calgary has always been much more progressive than people give it credit for.

As for Ford, his election was directly related to Miller. Miller was far too left-wing, or, at least, looked far too left-wing. He was terrible at "selling" his policies, and that's how Ford got elected.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on January 19, 2012, 09:46:49 am
Calgary has always been much more progressive than people give it credit for.

As for Ford, his election was directly related to Miller. Miller was far too left-wing, or, at least, looked far too left-wing. He was terrible at "selling" his policies, and that's how Ford got elected.

I disagree, Miller wasn't that leftist especially while Mayor. He was a second term mayor who didn't run again; if he had, i'm sure he would have won again... thats something we can argue till the end of time but as someone who lives DT, he would have had the old city locked up mostly.
Miller was hurt badly by the strike that was obvious and i think that drove him to step aside. The pendulum just started to swing right, its natural after having a left-centre left administration that the rights arguments started to get more attention/traction. Ford was/is a loud mouth who ran on a slogan and an idea that people were diluted to believe was true... esp those who have no idea what taxes pay for etc. They were more motivated to vote.
Had Tory run, or if even Giambrone, Rossi and Thompson stayed in the race it might have been a different outcome. I always thought it was a mistake for Giambrone to 1)deny the affair/fling and 2) withdraw from the race.

Anyway... TO is a mixed bag, the Old City of toronto is progressive to moderate as you head north and the inner burbs is moderate to conservative depending where you are. I am thankful TO is weak mayor, one vote among many kinda town :)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 19, 2012, 10:21:09 am
Miller looked overly left-wing and incompetent who allowed city hall to fill up with gravy

Looked.

The fact that Ford can't seem to find any gravy proves that this was not the case, but voters thought it was.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on January 19, 2012, 10:30:39 am
Miller looked overly left-wing and incompetent who allowed city hall to fill up with gravy

Looked.

The fact that Ford can't seem to find any gravy proves that this was not the case, but voters thought it was.

... To some he did for sure, and you saw that when the votes were counted (outside the old city Ford won, but Smitherman took TO).
Exactly, there was and is very little gravy to be had... like i said, it was a perfect storm that helped Ford win.

Anywho.. on topic, that Star report also mentioned Mark Holland as a contender, where would he stand among the crowd? is it likely he would run. So far there have been no names from West of Ontario, have the Grits given up the West? it has to be said that the seats they won were in most cases won on the current MP (thinking Goodale, Lameroux, Fry) All three ridings would fall if they step down.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 19, 2012, 10:57:15 am
Holland: Sounds likely, but he has no chance of beating Rae.

West: Lamoureux is too inexperienced, Goodale is too old, politically dated and unilingual, and Fry's batshoot.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on January 19, 2012, 11:02:26 am
I wasn't advocating any of them running at all...  your points are right on :P
But any interest from the west at all, outside caucus ala Topp? (I don't see Robertson going Liberal, if anything he might see a 2015 NDP run in VanCentre (or whatever riding is roughly that one)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 19, 2012, 11:10:31 am
No. All the candidates are Ontarian except LeBlanc, if he runs.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on January 19, 2012, 11:28:37 am
No. All the candidates are Ontarian except LeBlanc, if he runs.

What, he's not bland anymore ??? ;)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 19, 2012, 11:33:14 am
He'd be a mixture of Ed Miliband and Stephane Dion. Not exactly the guy you want facing Stephen Harper.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on January 19, 2012, 08:11:13 pm

As for Ford, his election was directly related to Miller. Miller was far too left-wing, or, at least, looked far too left-wing. He was terrible at "selling" his policies, and that's how Ford got elected.

Miller wasn't terrible at "selling" his policies.  Smitherman (and Pantalone) were.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 20, 2012, 03:34:33 am
If Lamoureux weren't in his first full term in Parliament, he would be an interesting choice for leader.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 20, 2012, 12:44:34 pm
Agreed there. For now he should be a western lieutenant, but he'll never be leader.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 20, 2012, 02:14:11 pm
Here's the problem: Liberal activists don't want the one man not named Bob Rae who's been at the forefront of rebuilding. Namely Brison.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/defence+politicians/6020739/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 21, 2012, 10:31:42 pm
Rex Murphy last night: Rae will win because there's no one else.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 22, 2012, 10:48:57 pm
To continue a conversation I had with Hatman in the General Discussion thread, Rae is more popular than Harper in Ontario- but only until the Permanent Campaign reboots. Depends if Rae continues defending his record or gets convinced to drop that altogether and keep it all Brisonomics, all the time.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 22, 2012, 10:51:18 pm
I don't think Rae has to defend his record really. It was so long ago, and, the people who are most likely to vote for him now - Liberals - are also the most likely to understand why he did what he did.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 22, 2012, 11:03:03 pm
Rae himself doesn't think so- that's why he's building a warchest for a Permanent Campaign of their own. I agree that it shouldn't matter after a generation, but evidently Ontarians still think differently.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on January 22, 2012, 11:39:14 pm
There are people even today who wont vote for the provincial NDP just because of Bob Rae. (while they are happy to vote for the federal NDP)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 23, 2012, 12:01:55 am
Regardless, I think we can all agree that none of those considering running can seriously challenge Rae's hammerlock on the nomination. Who will run if Rae does apart from Kennedy? Garneau and McGuinty are vanishingly unlikely. Holland and BW probably, dunno about Hall Findlay. Definitely not LeBland.

I'd also recommend a Shadow Cabinet reshuffle, since many people either shouldn't hold portfolios (Fry) and others are ill-suited for their current ones (Bennett in Aboriginal instead of Health).


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 23, 2012, 01:21:23 am
Rae lead an incompetent government.
Some people think Ontario NDP = Incompetent government.
It really had less to do with left/right on that


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on January 23, 2012, 08:06:25 am
If Lamoureux weren't in his first full term in Parliament, he would be an interesting choice for leader.

He is an anti-abortion fanatic....not much chance of Liberals wanting to go that way!


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on January 23, 2012, 08:47:38 am
Rae lead an incompetent government.
Some people think Ontario NDP = Incompetent government.
It really had less to do with left/right on that

Mostly, i wont go as far as saying incompetent but they ran a pretty poor goverment. Well it was a perfect storm in 90, i will defend parts of that term but not all of it.

Many... if not most of the MPPs elected in 90 were not expected to win, when i lived in Peterborough i work on the executive with Jenny Carter, who was elected in 90 and ran mainly cause her Husband had a name in the community... and we cabn't forget that Mamoliti (toronto extremist right wing councillor) was an NDP MPP too... (still makes me cring).
The corporate business sector in the province was out to get them, at every opportunity, every right wing media outlet were all working against the NDP...
NAFTA was coming into effect which made the recession of the 90s even harder on the governement.
But worst of all, for those of us who bleed orange, they broke their promises and failed to bring in Public Auto insurance and force the social contract on workers.

Anywho... point is, I agree with Hatman, yes there will be those who vote Liberal now who might bolt for the Tories (more likely) if he run and wins the leadership. Then depending on who the NDP nominate they may lose their soft left wing to the NDP as well (Mulcair, maybe Nash as the ON girl)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 23, 2012, 10:46:43 am
How would other Ontarian contenders like Kennedy or David McGuinty do there?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 24, 2012, 10:02:43 pm
When will everyone start declaring? The Board will reveal the exact date no earlier than 5 months in advance- which means we might not know for another full year. Surely the campaign will begin this fall?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 25, 2012, 08:05:32 am
Pelciquistes on the upswing. NDP 29, BQ 22, PLQ 19.  What does this look like in your models?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201201/24/01-4489073-le-plc-profite-dune-baisse-du-npd.php

Double whammy for Duceppe.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201201/24/01-4489087-gilles-duceppe-de-nouveau-eclabousse.php


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 25, 2012, 09:58:33 pm
LOL. Tremblay is running and therefore a lock for his fourth term here in Montreal. No way in hell would Coderre run against Rae.

http://www.canada.com/news/Coderre%2Bstill%2Bconsidering%2Brunning%2BLiberal%2Bleadership%2Bmayor%2BMontreal/6050769/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on January 25, 2012, 10:52:09 pm
Tremblay? A lock for his 4th term?
Considering he was elected because the opposition vote splitted almost perfectly, I doubt it.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 25, 2012, 10:58:47 pm
His opponents are a Peq and a hard-left Truther. 'Nuff said. While we might agree to disagree on the mayoralty, we can agree that Coderre probably isn't running for leader.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 27, 2012, 11:10:17 pm
What's with this Carney hype I see in the G&M every now and then? Has he ever indicated a poiltical interest, or even indicated an affiliation?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 28, 2012, 09:08:07 pm
Raemania continues. Ironically, some Grits and Dippers quoted think that Rae is like PET- always a Liberal (Dipper) at heart. I'm hoping that Kennedy gets in soon, otherwise this will be a real coronation.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/the-liberals-need-a-new-leader-what-about-bob/article2318206/singlepage/#articlecontent


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Peter the Lefty on January 29, 2012, 06:55:35 pm
How is it that Ontario is seeing a surge in support for the Liberals with Rae as leader?  Why does it seem that NDP supporters are becoming Liberal while Rae is hated by NDP supporters for his social contract?  That's what puzzles me.  Is it the lack of Jack Layton?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 29, 2012, 07:04:54 pm
How is it that Ontario is seeing a surge in support for the Liberals with Rae as leader?  Why does it seem that NDP supporters are becoming Liberal while Rae is hated by NDP supporters for his social contract?  That's what puzzles me.  Is it the lack of Jack Layton?

'Tis Blue Liberals returning home. For that the credit should go to Brison.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on January 30, 2012, 07:53:37 am
How is it that Ontario is seeing a surge in support for the Liberals with Rae as leader?  Why does it seem that NDP supporters are becoming Liberal while Rae is hated by NDP supporters for his social contract?  That's what puzzles me.  Is it the lack of Jack Layton?

'Tis Blue Liberals returning home. For that the credit should go to Brison.

Agreed, many blue liberals bolted to the tories... i still think they are just parking back in their old spots till they see who the liberal leader is.
The NDP vote hasn't changed much in ON... as a ONDPer, Rae is disliked for a lot more than social contract but that was part of it


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 30, 2012, 01:52:34 pm
My view is not as rosy as Arnold's.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/30/dan-arnold-ok-if-its-not-bob-rae-then-who-else/

Rae: No disagreements.

LeBland: A wimp and Chretien/Establishment tool.

Trudeau: Not running this time.

Dalton: ROFL.

David: LOL.

Garneau: Age, insufficiently political.

Brison: Won't run because he can't win. A pity.

Coderre: LOL. A thuggish, insubordinate blowhard. ROFL at organizational abilities: events of the past 3 years have thoroughly debunked that.

Cauchon: Who? Plus he got curbstomped by Mulcair last year.

Kennedy: Best choice, but can't beat Rae.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 31, 2012, 03:12:59 pm
http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/2012/01/update-on-all-people-not-running-for_31.html
I could back Amanda Lang.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on January 31, 2012, 03:35:39 pm
That sounds a lot like a wish list too... just like it was thought Doer or Miller would run in the NDP race.
Certain people are (i'd bet money) not going to run:
Robertson (is a NDPer!) Nenshi (too novice, just won last year or so), Copps, McKenna and Goodale (too old and too Chretien era). Ghiz just won again... but maybe if there is a big push

A couple i'm not even sure are Liberals but that dosen't stop anyone really right... Lang, any relation to Andrew Lang (TorontoDanforth candidate previously?) Coyne (not sure its in their best interest to run, they are both pretty comfy now and i don't see them wanting to spend at least 2 terms revamping the Liberals)

Some interesting candidates who are young and should probably be looked at as likely or maybe even courted: Holland, Reagan, Bains could be long-haulers for sure.

Stronach... really?, billionaress and tory-liberal-tory-liberal opportunist... probably not a good choice.

Hmm interesting, Provincial Liberals from PQ or ON might start looking around too... esp if they think they might be beaten in PQ by CAQ.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on January 31, 2012, 08:11:53 pm
A couple i'm not even sure are Liberals but that dosen't stop anyone really right... Lang, any relation to Andrew Lang (TorontoDanforth candidate previously?)

Brother.  And the father's Trudeau-era cabinet minister Otto Lang.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 31, 2012, 10:05:11 pm
There's no one on the provincial scene worth looking at- and need I remind you that provincial transfers have a record of 7 losses, no wins?



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 31, 2012, 10:44:43 pm
Diefenbaker?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 31, 2012, 10:51:59 pm
I wouldn't use that example.

Anyhoo, of those who've expressed an interest, which of them do you think would actually challenge Rae apart from Kennedy and BW? I say none. Certainly not McGuinty, Garneau or LeBland.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 31, 2012, 10:57:49 pm
What they were doing before they became leader, and then, PM by winning at least one election.
* if they only won a minority.

Harper - Leading the pro-business NCC
Martin - being Finance minister*
Chretien - Working in business, at The Brick (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brick_Furniture) (no really)
Mulroney - Big-time businessman.
Trudeau - being in Cabinet
Pearson - Saving the world* (according to the Nobel Peace people), also in Cabinet
Diefenbaker - Lawyer, MP, and repeated political loser
St. Laurent - In Cabinet
King - Labour Negotiator, Lecturer (on circuit), Industrial Researcher
Borden - Businessman
Laurier - In Cabinet, MP
Mackenzie - MP, Media mogul
Macdonald - Premier of Canada, and before that, MP.




Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 31, 2012, 10:58:45 pm
Lang seems to be the only one (a businessperson) who fits the recent bill of success.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 31, 2012, 11:02:52 pm
No one's aiming for anything higher than Stornoway in '15 unless they're consuming something illegal.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 31, 2012, 11:26:41 pm
Stornoway '15 could well turn into Sussex '16 if the minority is small enough.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on February 01, 2012, 12:41:26 am
Andrew Coyne cannot possibly be a Liberal. He's too all over the place. Oh wait a minute...

Amanda Lang would be interesting. Let's hope it doesn't make Kevin O'Leary jump into politics. If he ever became PM, I would leave the country in disgust.

And, Liberals: stop trying to poach Robertson. Why would someone with NDP credentials want to become leader of a third party... that isn't the NDP? Usually dippers join the Liberals because they're opportunistic.  And Nenshi? Again, is he even a Liberal? Where would he even run?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on February 01, 2012, 01:47:59 am
O'Leary is one of the few Conservatives that I could see myself voting for if he was leader.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 01, 2012, 01:06:27 pm
At least Rae is saving you guys from your very own Ed Miliband- LeBland.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on February 01, 2012, 01:09:15 pm
O'Leary is one of the few Conservatives that I could see myself voting for if he was leader.

I have lost all respect for you as a human being.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 10, 2012, 08:04:22 am
Keep it to likely candidates. Even then, Rae would still be far ahead.

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/Liberals%2Breach%2Bpost%2Belection%2Bhigh%2BTories%2Brule%2Bpolls/6130773/story.html



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 12, 2012, 08:20:38 pm
Rae gets a Conrad Black endorsement.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/11/conrad-black-a-few-of-my-favourite-things-in-canadian-politics/#more-67287




Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on February 13, 2012, 08:22:31 am
Rae gets a Conrad Black endorsement.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/11/conrad-black-a-few-of-my-favourite-things-in-canadian-politics/#more-67287



Gah, is that not some kiss of death right there?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 13, 2012, 12:17:01 pm
Kennedy's French is inadequate and LeBland is their own Ed Miliband.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 08, 2012, 12:11:22 am
With the Dipper race wrapping up in 2 weeks, hopefully we'll get some news here soon. If Mulcair loses, then non-Rae candidates will have a slightly easier time deciding whether or not to run. If Mulcair wins then Rae's hammerlock becomes even tighter than it is already.

Thing is I don't see anyone running against Rae ATM. Kennedy might jump in but even that's doubtful. Would he really run against Rae? McGuinty, Garneau and LeBland I don't see running because they're too loyal and realistic. Brison has already ruled it out for family reasons, even before it was clear that Rae was running.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 20, 2012, 03:56:43 pm
Best of luck, but no one's unseating Rae.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/03/19/gerard-kennedy/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 22, 2012, 04:10:40 pm
Hopefully this happens.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Politics/20120322/liberals-push-ahead-leadership-vote-120322/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 25, 2012, 12:14:26 pm
Does Mulcair's election change the dynamic? I think it further solidifies Rae's grip on the leadership myself.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 25, 2012, 01:02:34 pm
Only if Rae doesn't run can they get Kennedy.

http://blogs.canoe.ca/davidakin/politics/political-leaders-gender-and-age-the-context-for-decisions-the-liberals-must-make/



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 30, 2012, 09:44:53 pm
No one has any thoughts? :Sad:


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on April 03, 2012, 07:14:51 pm
For Liberal leader lets wait and see.  With Mulcair being more centrist, maybe they will move more to the right than left figuring their best shot is to pick up soft Conservative supporters rather than soft NDP supporters.  Or perhaps they will choose Rae and with the ideological gap between the parties being largely eliminated, they will end up merging eventually.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 03, 2012, 07:20:24 pm
That's exactly what Brison has been doing in rewriting their economic platform. After Saturday's events, now the Anglo media is yet again suggesting that Trudeau will jump in despite his consistent "a la prochaine" stance.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on April 03, 2012, 07:40:03 pm
That's exactly what Brison has been doing in rewriting their economic platform. After Saturday's events, now the Anglo media is yet again suggesting that Trudeau will jump in despite his consistent "a la prochaine" stance.

I think Trudeau being a child while his father was PM probably realizes how little he saw him and doesn't want his children to experience the same.  He has stated as a father of young children, he has no interest in running at this point.  Besides he is only as well known as well as he is due to his family name, not anything he has done and once put under the microscope he would probably disappoint.  The fact Dion, Ignatieff, and Rae were all reluctant to give him prominent positions probably says what they think of his capabilities.  They only use him during campaigns as some people still love the Trudeau name and will vote for the party based on him.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 03, 2012, 07:47:29 pm
Iggy gave him the Immigration portfolio, and even his critics conceded he performed well there. But you're right- he doesn't want the job right now because his kids are too young and he's insufficiently experienced. The goal is 24 Sussex, something he restated just last week.

Of those who are interested, I think it comes down to Rae and Kennedy, maybe Martha Hall Findlay. No one else who previously expressed interest in caucus would, IMO, run against Rae. Brison is invaluable where he is, and besides the base wouldn't trust him to do what he's doing without "supervision."


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on April 03, 2012, 11:06:42 pm
I think the Liberals will be running in more of a Libertarian direction, trying to move to the left of the NDP on social issues, while remaining on the right on economic issues. There may be a significant population of Canadians are are libertarian leaning that wont vote Tory because of Social issues.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on April 03, 2012, 11:56:09 pm
In other words the Liberals will be the "boutique" party for people who are too smart o toe conservative and too rich o toe NDP!


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on April 04, 2012, 12:07:26 am
In other words the Liberals will be the "boutique" party for people who are too smart o toe conservative and too rich o toe NDP!

Could work in the suburbs as well as some of the uber wealthy urban ridings.  Although I think this might seem like the logical direction to go, there still is a very strong element amongst the older guard who favour an activist government and still assume (perhaps rightly or maybe wrongly) we will see things return to normal next time around.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on April 04, 2012, 07:27:21 am
The SK Liberal Party tried a Libertarian platform, but that backfired horribly. But then again, SK is not a hotbed for Libertarianism.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Peter the Lefty on April 04, 2012, 04:24:29 pm
For Liberal leader lets wait and see.  With Mulcair being more centrist, maybe they will move more to the right than left figuring their best shot is to pick up soft Conservative supporters rather than soft NDP supporters.  Or perhaps they will choose Rae and with the ideological gap between the parties being largely eliminated, they will end up merging eventually.
Why has there been so much merger talk lately?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2012, 04:37:32 pm
For Liberal leader lets wait and see.  With Mulcair being more centrist, maybe they will move more to the right than left figuring their best shot is to pick up soft Conservative supporters rather than soft NDP supporters.  Or perhaps they will choose Rae and with the ideological gap between the parties being largely eliminated, they will end up merging eventually.
Why has there been so much merger talk lately?

It's a Toronto media fetish which no one in either party takes seriously. That and Mulcair's centrism being overrated by said journos. They basically see him as either Tony Blair or Paul Keating depending on the day. And as usual, Toronto is wrong.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on April 04, 2012, 05:01:59 pm
For Liberal leader lets wait and see.  With Mulcair being more centrist, maybe they will move more to the right than left figuring their best shot is to pick up soft Conservative supporters rather than soft NDP supporters.  Or perhaps they will choose Rae and with the ideological gap between the parties being largely eliminated, they will end up merging eventually.
Why has there been so much merger talk lately?

Because many believe that much like on the right that is the only realistic way to win.  The PCs and Reform/Alliance back in the 90s stood fully against the idea of the merger, but yet eventually they did merge and look how well it worked out.  Chretien thinks its a good idea and like him or not, he is one who knows how to win.  You will also notice he made sure he never angered the two parties on the right enough to force them to merge as he knew full well he would be in trouble if it happened.  I wouldn't vote for such party, but fully support the idea and actually believe it will eventually happen.  The other possibility is to run paper candidates in ridings where the party is weak and the other is strong and then form a coalition after the election.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2012, 05:08:07 pm
Even if the Liberals remain the third party in 2015, they might not merge. Look at the UK Liberals after they permanently lost un des deux status.

Speaking of Bob Rae, why he has been whining nonstop ever since Mulcair's election? It's unseemly for a man of his calibre and experience. If he's that thin-skinned now, I can only imagine what he'll do once the ad barrage goes up in Ontario.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/04/tension-between-ndp-liberals-as-rae-calls-mulcair-a-mini-harper/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on April 04, 2012, 05:11:44 pm
Even if the Liberals remain the third party in 2015, they might not merge. Look at the UK Liberals after they permanently lost un des deux status.

Speaking of Bob Rae, why he has been whining nonstop ever since Mulcair's election? It's unseemly for a man of his calibre and experience. If he's that thin-skinned now, I can only imagine what he'll do once the ad barrage goes up in Ontario.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/04/tension-between-ndp-liberals-as-rae-calls-mulcair-a-mini-harper/

Depends on the numbers.  If similar to 2003 for the Alliance and PCs they might very well as in 2003 the PCs were struggling just to stay afloat, while the Alliance was in no threat of going under, but they also realized they had no chance at winning on their own so if the 2015 election puts the NDP in the position the Alliance was in 2003 and the Liberals are in the position the PCs were in 2003, I think its is highly probable they will merge.  Also I should note Rae comes from the Chretien wing and they are generally pro-merger as opposed to the Martin wing which is generally against it.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on April 04, 2012, 07:25:20 pm
I've my doubts about such a merger actively taking place; because unlike the PC/Reform situation, the Liberal-NDP situation isn't the product of schism--and besides, the Liberals have been perfectly capable in the past of winning government even with the NDP pushing 20%.  And above all, it ducks the issue regarding reducing the Conservative vote, as opposed to piling on it in the awkward name of a united front....


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on April 04, 2012, 11:27:55 pm
Why would the NDP have any interest in merging with the Liberals when all the polls show the NDP already dead even with the Tories even with the Liberals still staggering through their death rattle with 19% of the vote. It was a totally different situation when the PCs and the Canadian Alliance merged in 2003. The Liberals under Paul Martin were consistently polling over 50% and the PCs and Tories were both in the teens. They realized that merging was the only way to escape annhilation. At the time they weren't even thinking about winning - it was about survival. The NDP has good reason to believe they can win the next election on their own. Why waste time playing games with the dying Liberals?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on April 04, 2012, 11:31:58 pm
Why would the NDP have any interest in merging with the Liberals when all the polls show the NDP already dead even with the Tories even with the Liberals still staggering through their death rattle with 19% of the vote. It was a totally different situation when the PCs and the Canadian Alliance merged in 2003. The Liberals under Paul Martin were consistently polling over 50% and the PCs and Tories were both in the teens. They realized that merging was the only way to escape annhilation. At the time they weren't even thinking about winning - it was about survival. The NDP has good reason to believe they can win the next election on their own. Why waste time playing games with the dying Liberals?

That might be what the polls say but when you look at a riding by riding breakdown as well as the fact the Liberals were the second place party until recently, I still see parallels.  Maybe not in the next few years, but in the long term.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on April 05, 2012, 12:06:53 am
The Tories only have to lose about 12 seats and their majority is gone and then the NDP can form a minority government. The federal Tories right now would lose their majority just on a 1% swing to the opposition...if I'm the NDP I have plenty of reason for optimism.

Again as I said before, in 2003 the federal Liberals looked absolutely, totally, utterly invincible!! Martin was expected to win 250 seats in the 2004 election! Books like "Gritlock" were being written that speculated that the Liberals might NEVER lose power...ever!

Who needs shady deals with the Liberal remnants, by 2015 the Tories will have pissed off a few more people, the NDP will be even more established as the only real alternative and just the slightest little breeze will send Tory seats cascading to the NDP and in some cases to the Liberals in Ontario and BC and a few in Man/Sask.

No one in the NDP or the Liberal parties would give any thought to merger unless they feel they are in a situation of "mutual assured self-destruction". The Liberals might be feeling desperate these days, but I think the NDP sees the next election as being totally winnable and regards the Liberals as irrelevant - which they are!


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on April 05, 2012, 07:09:01 am
It was a totally different situation when the PCs and the Canadian Alliance merged in 2003. The Liberals under Paul Martin were consistently polling over 50% and the PCs and Tories were both in the teens. They realized that merging was the only way to escape annhilation. At the time they weren't even thinking about winning - it was about survival.

And before that, the formation of the Canadian Alliance was seen as the only way the "redneck" Reformers could seem like a viable governing, as opposed to perennial-opposition, party--sort of like, positioning themselves as a successor to the PCs without actually merging with the PCs.  (Unfortunately, Stockwell Day was no Layton/Mulcair.)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 05, 2012, 12:28:26 pm
Open question: who besides Gerard Kennedy might actually run?

On another note, I've noticed for years that the Toronto media has a very bipolar view of Trudeau. When he does well they're all unanimous in gushing restorationism, when he goofs they  write very personal "charming, hunky airhead" screeds (like Gagnon did in February). FFS, even Le Devoir takes a much more balanced approach to a guy they hate for reasons other than his surname. And we Quebecers are supposedly the ones who are emotional and volatile. Michael Den Tandt is one of the few Torontonians who keeps it level- and that's precisely as it should be. Same applies to Tom Mulcair, as I mentioned in the NDP thread.

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/Punch%2Bdrunk%2Bpolitics/6413606/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 05, 2012, 03:21:10 pm
If the Liberals were to hijack the NDP as a way of returning to power, what on earth would be the point of having an NDP?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 05, 2012, 03:33:40 pm
If the Liberals were to hijack the NDP as a way of returning to power, what on earth would be the point of having an NDP?

Are we talking about merger? I highly doubt that in said hypothetical "LDP" (or whatever the name would be) Grits would have first dibs on leadership or anything else for that matter. The NDP would dominate said party just like Blues dominate the Conservative Party, and some more right-leaning Liberals (McCallum, Goodale, Brison) might swallow their pride and join our side, where they'd be more comfortable ideologically.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on April 05, 2012, 03:37:25 pm
I don't think it's correct to call the Reformists the "blues". Blue was the colour of the PC Party, not the Reform Party.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 05, 2012, 03:42:38 pm
I don't think it's correct to call the Reformists the "blues". Blue was the colour of the PC Party, not the Reform Party.

In the Red/Blue Tory sense. Trust me, we don't refer to Blues and Greens amongst ourselves.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on April 05, 2012, 03:58:03 pm
I don't think it's correct to call the Reformists the "blues". Blue was the colour of the PC Party, not the Reform Party.

In the Red/Blue Tory sense. Trust me, we don't refer to Blues and Greens amongst ourselves.

You were talking about the CA-PC merger, though. I don't think any Red Tories exist any more, at least not federally. (Chong might be an exception)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 05, 2012, 04:04:19 pm
I don't think it's correct to call the Reformists the "blues". Blue was the colour of the PC Party, not the Reform Party.

In the Red/Blue Tory sense. Trust me, we don't refer to Blues and Greens amongst ourselves.

You were talking about the CA-PC merger, though. I don't think any Red Tories exist any more, at least not federally. (Chong might be an exception)

MacKay and Moore, to name the most prominent. I meant that the NDP would dominate both numerically and ideologically, just as the Alliance did. Hopefully this race starts soon.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on April 05, 2012, 04:05:47 pm
The federal Liberals are essentially now the "red Tory" party.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 05, 2012, 04:18:01 pm
The federal Liberals are essentially now the "red Tory" party.

True that, but "fiscal and social responsibility" seems the ideal ideological positioning for them provided it translates into concrete policies.

Following this template would also help.

http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/reid.pdf


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on April 05, 2012, 07:22:37 pm
MacKay and Moore, to name the most prominent. I meant that the NDP would dominate both numerically and ideologically, just as the Alliance did. Hopefully this race starts soon.

Except that James Moore was first elected as an Alliancer, not a PC.  He's now "red" by default (and perhaps as a reflection of his own younger generation).

But back to the unite-the-left subject--I think the first time that came to be voiced as an "issue" was in the aftermath of 1988's "Free Trade Election", where more Canadians voted for an anti-Free Trade party than pro.  But prior to then, "uniting the left" was redundant--and indeed, in those federal/provincial jurisdictions where the Liberals went into thorough eclipse, it was more often than not on behalf of uniting the right against the "socialist hordes"...


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on April 05, 2012, 07:39:23 pm
The federal Liberals are essentially now the "red Tory" party.

True that, but "fiscal and social responsibility" seems the ideal ideological positioning for them provided it translates into concrete policies.

Following this template would also help.

http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/reid.pdf


I will have to live in ignorance. I took one look at who wrote that, and I was reminded of his gawdawful show on CTV Newsnet, and I closed the tab. :)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 05, 2012, 07:55:53 pm
The federal Liberals are essentially now the "red Tory" party.

True that, but "fiscal and social responsibility" seems the ideal ideological positioning for them provided it translates into concrete policies.

Following this template would also help.

http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/reid.pdf


I will have to live in ignorance. I took one look at who wrote that, and I was reminded of his gawdawful show on CTV Newsnet, and I closed the tab. :)

1) open up the party to non-members (check), build a Manning Centre equivalent, realign economic policy (check), write a new policy manifesto (incomplete).

2) Have an interim leader who gives the party a pulse (check) and keeps them relevant both in Parliament and the national dialogue (check).

3) Recommending a Trudeau/Brison permanent leadership team without mentioning their (or anyone else's) name.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on April 05, 2012, 07:57:38 pm
What's the Liberal equivalent of the Manning Institute? The NDP has the Broadbent institute, but it sucks so far.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 05, 2012, 08:00:06 pm
What's the Liberal equivalent of the Manning Institute? The NDP has the Broadbent institute, but it sucks so far.

They don't have one ATM. Who would head such a thing anyways? Right now Brison's their wonk-in-residence, but he can't do all that by himself.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 05, 2012, 08:54:03 pm
Except that James Moore was first elected as an Alliancer, not a PC. 

Which, in a way, says everything.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 05, 2012, 09:03:08 pm
Except that James Moore was first elected as an Alliancer, not a PC. 

Which, in a way, says everything.

There was one Blue PC, Scott Brison, but he's on Team Red.




Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Smid on April 05, 2012, 09:08:54 pm
James Moore has the most beautiful dogs! He often uploads their photos on Facebook.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 05, 2012, 09:14:37 pm
James Moore has the most beautiful dogs! He often uploads their photos on Facebook.

Aww. But I'm still voting for Jason Kenney when the time comes.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on April 05, 2012, 11:27:25 pm
James Moore has the most beautiful dogs! He often uploads their photos on Facebook.

Aww. But I'm still voting for Jason Kenney when the time comes.

Does Kenney still claim to be a virgin like he did not long after he was first elected?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on April 06, 2012, 08:17:25 am
James Moore has the most beautiful dogs! He often uploads their photos on Facebook.

Aww. But I'm still voting for Jason Kenney when the time comes.

Does Kenney still claim to be a virgin like he did not long after he was first elected?

LOL - must be an asexual. Or well, you know...


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 06, 2012, 03:14:17 pm
Crawley told Rae that he must make a decision before June.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/04/05/john-ivison-thomas-mulcairs-sure-footed-start-could-be-made-moot-by-by-oil-sands-comments/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 06, 2012, 10:04:19 pm
I'll believe that when I see it.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1157912--bob-rae-not-running-for-leader-of-liberal-party


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 08, 2012, 09:01:54 pm
Last I checked, that's precisely how Brison is realigning their platform. Garneau and McGuinty would be godawful candidates- the only alternative to Rae is Kennedy.

http://www.canada.com/news/Tandt%2Baside%2Bremains%2Buphill%2Bclimb%2BLiberals/6428191/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 11, 2012, 06:06:53 pm
They don't need a saviour, they need someone without baggage who has both experience and a strategy. Gerard Kennedy.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1159803--hebert-liberals-looking-for-a-saviour-and-a-miracle


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on April 11, 2012, 07:16:50 pm
Without baggage?
It's because of him than Dion became leader!


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 11, 2012, 07:26:06 pm
Compared to Bob Rae's, quite minor. Had he made Iggy leader that would be one thing, and at any rate only junkies would remember that offhand. Kennedy has two handicaps: no seat and last I heard, weak French.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 11, 2012, 07:29:21 pm
If the answer is 'Gerard Kennedy' then the question is a deeply stupid one.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 11, 2012, 07:31:32 pm
If the answer is 'Gerard Kennedy' then the question is a deeply stupid one.

Did he kick your dog or something? :puzzled:


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 11, 2012, 07:37:25 pm
If the answer is 'Gerard Kennedy' then the question is a deeply stupid one.

Did he kick your dog or something? :puzzled:

A misunderstanding, I think. The comment is disparaging, but not motivated by hate.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 11, 2012, 07:48:30 pm
OK, so if not Kennedy or Rae, then who of those who have not explicitly ruled out a run?

Coderre: NO.

Martha Hall Findlay: Inexperience plus "who?" to all those who didn't watch the '06 convention. Lost her seat.

Garneau: Age, not really leadership material IMO.

Mark Holland: Who? Plus he lost his seat.

LeBlanc: Harper and Mulcair would love that.

David McGuinty: No explanation required.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on April 11, 2012, 08:26:35 pm
Compared to Bob Rae's, quite minor. Had he made Iggy leader that would be one thing, and at any rate only junkies would remember that offhand. Kennedy has two handicaps: no seat and last I heard, weak French.

Well, not only no seat, but *lost* seat, to boot.  And to Peggy Nash, to boot.

I think his handicap is that he comes across as a bit of an insipid "NDP lite" pretty boy--which isn't great in an age of the NDP being stronger, nor is it great if the Grits want to assemble anything like the grand electoral coalitions of old--which, sad to say, also involves repatriating some erstwhile Grit vote from the Tories.  (Which also helps explain why Dalton McGuinty defeated Kennedy for the provincial leadership a decade and a half ago.)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 11, 2012, 08:32:18 pm
Compared to Bob Rae's, quite minor. Had he made Iggy leader that would be one thing, and at any rate only junkies would remember that offhand. Kennedy has two handicaps: no seat and last I heard, weak French.

Well, not only no seat, but *lost* seat, to boot.  And to Peggy Nash, to boot.

I think his handicap is that he comes across as a bit of an insipid "NDP lite" pretty boy--which isn't great in an age of the NDP being stronger, nor is it great if the Grits want to assemble anything like the grand electoral coalitions of old--which, sad to say, also involves repatriating some erstwhile Grit vote from the Tories.  (Which also helps explain why Dalton McGuinty defeated Kennedy for the provincial leadership a decade and a half ago.)

Is it really his (or anyone else's) fault that he went under though? A few Liberals (Holland, Mendes, etc.) won their advance poll but lost their seat when the Dippers surged post-debate. I also highly doubt he would interfere with Brison's command of their policy shop, which is definitely not Dipper-lite.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on April 11, 2012, 08:55:09 pm
Well, doesn't Bob Rae the least worst of their choice?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 11, 2012, 08:58:35 pm
What happens when Ontario gets reminded of his premiership?

Hence Kennedy.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on April 11, 2012, 10:21:46 pm
But Kennedy is totally unknown out of Ontario and he has no seat.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on April 12, 2012, 07:21:49 am
Is it really his (or anyone else's) fault that he went under though? A few Liberals (Holland, Mendes, etc.) won their advance poll but lost their seat when the Dippers surged post-debate. I also highly doubt he would interfere with Brison's command of their policy shop, which is definitely not Dipper-lite.

As for the "advance poll" thing: even in the combined "600s" and Special Voting Rules, Kennedy got 3200 to Nash's 3600.

And as for the Kennedy vs Brison thing: that *could* wind up fatally schizophrenic, a la "Red Tory" leaders in Ontario running on hard-right platforms a la Larry Grossman and John Tory...


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 02:21:10 pm
It wouldn't be "vs." so much as "and", but we might have to ATD on that point.

Name recognition: Party members and "supporters" will be voting, not the general voting public. Besides, Ontario is where the work needs to be done.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 21, 2012, 01:34:23 pm
Rules will be set this weekend. 9 months with LeBland as interim? That would be almost as bad as 9 months of Turmel was for the Dippers.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/04/20/pol-liberal-leadership-meet.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on April 21, 2012, 05:37:44 pm
Honestly, I don't think LeBlanc would be *that* fatal as either interrim or permanent leader.  Indeed, his apparent "blandness" might be a blessing in disguise.

OTOH, blowing a horn for Gerard Kennedy as a "Grits' only hope" at this point is like blowing a horn for Myspace as the be-all and end-all of social media at this point.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 21, 2012, 06:11:10 pm
It isn't so much blandness as wimpiness and being a complete tool of the Chretien gang.

Kennedy: Is there anyone better ATM? He can't win against Rae of course, but someone needs to make a strong stance. If by some miracle Rae doesn't run Kennedy's the frontrunner.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on April 21, 2012, 10:18:30 pm
Though keep in mind that the apparent blandest, wimpiest Liberal tool in the running defeated Kennedy for the provincial leadership in Ontario--and look at Dalton McGuinty now. 

Perhaps it helps that when push comes to shove, McGuinty turned out to be less bland and wimpy than Kennedy would have been.  Or at least more of a salt-of-the-earth electable-in-the-heartland bland & wimpy, as opposed to Kennedy's vapid "Trudeau Lite" cast.

IOW, it's all about the gravitas, baby--sure, maybe Dom LeBlanc's no Dalton McBates; but notwithstanding Shawinigate and all of that, if one considers where the Liberals were electable or competitive during Chretien's leadership, maybe being a toady of that gang ain't so bad in the end...


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 22, 2012, 12:40:38 pm
Forgive me if I don't think McGuinty's the best model when it comes to either policy or politics. I'll give Dad credit for being a survivor, but he and everyone else knows that his last two terms have had more to do with PC self-nuking than anything else.

I don't see LeBlanc connecting with ordinary voters either. He's a great paper candidate- a young, Atlantic, perfectly bilingual Ivy League Francophone with lots of experience. In practice the story is very different. Shy, weak personality, completely unknown outside of NB and party circles. No Liberal I know has a particularly high opinion of him as leadership material. Do you really think he's a match for Stephen Harper and Tom Mulcair in the Commons bear pit?

If he does become either interim or (heaven forbid from a Liberal POV) permanent, I'm predicting he will be overshadowed like Dion and to a degree Iggy were.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on April 22, 2012, 04:57:38 pm
Well, at this point, Gerard Kennedy's no solution, either--yeah, he might have been in 2006; but in the aftermath of Jackmania reconfiguring everything (and I'm not just talking about Kennedy's personal defeat), if GK is all the Liberals can muster up as a "commanding leadership presence", then they're truly destined for the vapid-bunch-of-twerp-land of infinite third-place oblivion.  As "saviours" go, he'd be more like the Stockwell Day of the centre-left in practice.

In which case, maybe LeBlanc may actually benefit from low expectations--and, perhaps, as a leader better able to "manage" third-party status: more of a Charles Kennedy than Nick Clegg figure IOW...


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 22, 2012, 06:03:49 pm
I thought the goal was to reclaim OO, but that looks quite unlikely with Mulcair at the helm. Though who knows- the present alignment was only formed in the campaign's final 10 days. We'll probably have to agree to disagree on Kennedy and leave that there.

Those who haven't said no...

Coderre: No. Just no.

Garneau: Francophone Dryden.

Hall Findlay: Too inexperienced, lost seat.

David McGuinty: Last name.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 22, 2012, 06:51:47 pm
Yet another step. The rules will hopefully be set in June.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/04/22/pol-liberals-board-meeting.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on April 23, 2012, 10:10:08 am
Sounds like the Liberals had a meeting to decide to have a meeting at which time they will meet on rules for a later meeting of the party to eventually decide on a leader....

did i miss anything?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 30, 2012, 09:56:27 pm
Bob Rae to resign at the end of June- confirming what we've known for a year. Only a non-denial in response.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/30/bob-rae-likely-to-to-resign-from-interim-gig-to-run-for-liberal-party-leadership/

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/30/bob-rae-resignation-interim-post_n_1465925.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on April 30, 2012, 10:06:37 pm
I was hoping he wouldn't run, because it will make for a boring race.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 30, 2012, 10:14:03 pm
Garneau and McGuinty are also apparently running. Their interim leader needs to be bilingual, which leaves... LeBland. Is Brison's French good enough? He's the only possible alternative interim to LeBland (who himself might not take it).

But yeah, this is a cakewalk for Rae.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 01, 2012, 07:03:40 pm
Kennedy, (David) McGuinty, Garneau, MHF, LeBlanc, Coderre?

http://www.canada.com/news/least%2BLiberals%2Btesting%2Bwaters%2Bfederal%2Bleadership/6549450/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on May 02, 2012, 12:07:26 am
I really want Dalton and David to run. It was fun when two brothers ran against eachother in Britain.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on May 02, 2012, 01:01:11 am
The NDP must be thrilled at what a weak field of leadership candidates the Liberals seem to have.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 02, 2012, 11:52:30 am
Crawley said months ago Rae shouldn't be barred, so this is just a formality.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/05/01/liberal-party-to-clarify-rules-for-a-rae-leadership-bid/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on May 02, 2012, 09:08:53 pm
The NDP must be thrilled at what a weak field of leadership candidates the Liberals seem to have.

At this point, they might as well bite the bullet and promote Justin Trudeau, whether he or anybody else within or without feels he's "fit" or not.

An alternate notion came to mind: what if Bob Rae retired and his provincial counterpart, Glen Murray, moved up to take his place, and...


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 02, 2012, 09:35:13 pm
He will not run if the Liberals remain in third party status and has said as much publicly. Plus the other reason is his family and said exactly that on TMP 2 months ago.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 04, 2012, 04:09:47 pm
Adma has a media crystal ball.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/05/04/justin-trudeau-should-be-the-next-leader-of-the-liberal-party-no-seriously/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 05, 2012, 11:58:02 am
Believe that when I see it.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1173339--hebert-is-justin-trudeau-the-liberals-salvation


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 07, 2012, 06:43:47 pm
Kennedy and Martha Hall Findlay are considering a run.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/05/07/kennedy-hall-findlay-still-mulling-run-for-federal-liberal-leadership/30676?page_requested=1


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 11, 2012, 06:12:50 pm
So is Joyce Murray, apparently.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 05, 2012, 11:13:18 am
Ivison usually gets these sort of scoops early, which is what makes it intriguing. Will only believe that when I see it, of course.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/04/john-ivison-justin-trudeau-can-dominate-attract-the-spotlight-but-can-he-lead-a-team/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on June 05, 2012, 06:04:21 pm
So is Joyce Murray, apparently.

That would be an interesting pick.  She is from the West where the Liberals only have four seats, quite strong on the environment yet was a member of the BC Liberals who are centre-right as opposed to centre-left.  Certainly I am sure the NDP will bring up her support of Gordon Campbell in the hopes of wooing left leaning Liberals away as many of those vote NDP provincially, although outside BC most don't have too strong an opinion either way on Campbell and in BC the Liberals federally are pretty much dead outside Vancouver and a few suburban ridings meaning most are already in the Conservative or NDP camp.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 05, 2012, 06:11:37 pm
Eh, put her in for western lieutenant or whatever you guys call that. Your take on Ivison's Trudeau scoop?



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on June 05, 2012, 10:48:45 pm
Joyce Murray would be a joke of a candidate she was an Eco-terrorist as Environment Minister in the EXTREME rightwing Campbell government...I don't think she speaks any French either.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on June 06, 2012, 06:02:20 pm
Joyce Murray would be a joke of a candidate she was an Eco-terrorist as Environment Minister in the EXTREME rightwing Campbell government...I don't think she speaks any French either.
  I wouldn't call Gordon Campbell extreme right, but certainly not a Liberal, at least not in the North American sense (In Europe he would be as liberal there means for as little government as possible otherwise right wing economically, left wing on moral issues).  On the environment who was pretty lousy in his first term when she was minister, but quite a different story in the second term, after all that is when BC became the first province to introduce a carbon tax.  The reality is the BC Liberals have always been a coalition of blue Liberals and Tories so in his first term he needed to convince conservatives he wasn't really a Liberal as many were uncomfortable supporting a party with a liberal moniker whereas by the end of his first term many Liberals felt he was just a conservative in liberal clothing so he had to in his second term convince them he hadn't totally abandoned them.

Anyways Murray seems like maybe someone who could be a good cabinet minister, but not leadership material never mind she cannot speak French.  Realistically the Liberals need to chose a Francophone Quebecer if they want to return to opposition and then government the following election.  Quebec is the only province where a party can go from single digits to almost 50% in a single election, i.e. PCs in 1984 and NDP in 2012.  No other province can you get such a large swing in one election, at least not upwards, maybe downwards though.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on June 06, 2012, 06:49:02 pm
Quebec is the only province where a party can go from single digits to almost 50% in a single election, i.e. PCs in 1984 and NDP in 2012.  No other province can you get such a large swing in one election, at least not upwards, maybe downwards though.

How about the Reform Party in 1993?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 06, 2012, 08:30:53 pm
Wasn't the national executive supposed to meet this week?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 07, 2012, 12:42:56 pm
The conference call will be next Wednesday. Rae will announce his candidacy once the summer recess starts in 2 weeks.

http://www.globalnews.ca/rae+to+decide+soon+on+liberal+leadership+bid/6442655937/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 08, 2012, 10:49:38 am
Rae is released and will announce his candidacy in a couple of weeks.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/07/pol-liberal-leadership-bob-rae.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on June 08, 2012, 11:01:29 am
Rae is released and will announce his candidacy in a couple of weeks.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/07/pol-liberal-leadership-bob-rae.html

As an outsider, this to me leaves a very bad taste... he promises not to run, then this new executive changes the rules, now hes going to run (even though he promised not to?) giving him a huge advantage since hes been interim leader for what a year now?... just because you can do something, doesn't mean you should.
This looks like another coronation attempt, and the media (should) pick this up... and so will the NDP & Tories.

There has to be better candidates out there?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 08, 2012, 11:06:13 am
Who else is there from caucus (as Topp taught us :P)? Everyone knew that Rae would find some way to run. Caucus badly wants him, membership is probably less enthusiastic.

Brison: Doesn't want it and wouldn't be elected if he did. Could be interim.

Coderre: No explanation required.

Garneau: Not really leadership material, plus age.

LeBland: Younger, perfectly bilingual Stephane Dion. Not leadership material.

McGuinty: Last name.

Trudeau: Probably doesn't want it this time despite Ivison's story. Too inexperienced at any rate.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 08, 2012, 11:07:53 am
Kind of hilarious to see the Liberal Party of Canada reduced to picking a leader on the 'who's left?' principle.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 08, 2012, 11:16:48 am
Rae is still, despite his Ontarian flaws, the best electable (which excludes Brison) candidate. A third party needs a heavyweight leader with media presence if they don't want to die by media asphyxiation.* Take Kennedy: great guy, but few people outside Ontario know who he is and doesn't have the personality or political weight to constantly insert himself in the news. Rae does, in spades. That's partially how Jack Layton kept the NDP floating way above its poll numbers for most of his leadership.


*Which coincidentially, is what's happening to the BQ in our French media- even Le Devoir doesn't say a word about them.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 08, 2012, 12:48:43 pm
Kinsella has also heard that Trudeau's running, but I'd like to see another MSM story before putting him in the YES column. G&M/TS/CBC usually have Grit scoops, so we should look there in the coming months.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2012/06/justin-trudeau/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on June 08, 2012, 03:31:18 pm
Liberals have to hope Trudeau runs, or else there will be little media interest in this race.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 08, 2012, 03:51:39 pm
Here's how I see the situation right now.

1) Grassroots is putting serious pressure on him, especially the Ontarians.

2) Establishment is torn- they feel Rae's experience outweighs his baggage. They like Trudeau but think he should wait one more cycle. (Which is also my opinion)

3) Family remains his top reason to say no.

4) He likes and respects Rae a lot so feels uncomfortable challenging him.

5) Many rank-and-filers who are undecided whether his inexperience or Rae's baggage is a greater problem. Some of whom prefer him personally to Rae- I know some Ontario Liberals like that.

6) Remember '68. Everyone else does the logistics with tacit consent to set up a late entry. Rae is borrowing part of that playbook by having Jim whatshisface organizing ethnic support.

If I had to predict it right now, it would be like Chris Christie last fall: saying he reconsidered but the answer is still no.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 09, 2012, 02:22:04 pm
If he changes his mind, it won't be this summer. Rae will be in 3 weeks from now, along with others like Kennedy, BW and MHF at various points.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1205292--liberal-leadership-race-to-heat-up-in-june-once-bob-rae-s-intentions-are-clear?bn=1


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 09, 2012, 07:03:51 pm
Race kicks off in July.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/09/pol-the-house-mike-crawley-bob-rae-leadership.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 11, 2012, 03:58:32 pm
Keys are a turnin'. So, does anyone else join this party? Say, MHF or BW?

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/trudeau-not-prodded-into-race-158399885.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 11, 2012, 08:05:20 pm
I'd give Rae a slight advantage as the much more experienced quasi-incumbent. Should be interesting to see how the $$$ and various demographics fall.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1209577--hebert-justin-trudeau-s-best-option-may-lie-in-the-future


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on June 11, 2012, 08:39:22 pm
There are few politicians I dislike more than Justin Trudeau. He just makes my skin crawl.

Canadians like him because of the name recognition. But once they hear him speak (or, should I say, hear the way he completely talks down to people), I don't see him becoming Prime Minister. I certainly hope not. I'd rather Mulcair than this chump.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 11, 2012, 09:29:19 pm
Have to disagree with you Hagrid, and I'm not the only one.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/06/09/as-liberal-party-considers-letting-bob-rae-run-for-leader-canadians-say-they-prefer-justin-trudeau/

I'd take Kinsella with a grain of salt. Not just the usual reasons but also because he seems to be playing the role Newman played for PET in '68.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/06/11/justin-time-for-liberal-leadership


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on June 11, 2012, 09:42:23 pm
Again, I remind to English Canadians than a Trudeau is totally unacceptable to French Québécois.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 11, 2012, 10:06:41 pm
I don't know whether MHF or BW will run. Kennedy is out, ditto LeBland. My question is who gets the interim nod: Brison or Garneau. Brison has worse French but far better economic credentials.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on June 11, 2012, 10:37:54 pm
Again, I remind to English Canadians than a Trudeau is totally unacceptable to French Québécois.

Shh!

Meh, who left in the Liberals wouldn't be unacceptable to Quebec?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on June 11, 2012, 10:41:58 pm
Again, I remind to English Canadians than a Trudeau is totally unacceptable to French Québécois.

Shh!

Meh, who left in the Liberals wouldn't be unacceptable to Quebec?

I don't know, most Liberals left are unknown in Quebec. And Anglos and immigrants love Trudeau, usually, I think. The problem is French people.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on June 12, 2012, 12:33:23 am
I still think once the average Canadian gets to know Trudeau more, they will realize he's not his father.

But I really don't know who can save the Liberals. Rae will play out horribly in Ontario.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: pugbug on June 12, 2012, 08:21:50 am
I still think once the average Canadian gets to know Trudeau more, they will realize he's not his father.

But I really don't know who can save the Liberals. Rae will play out horribly in Ontario.

But how well will Canadians get to know him unless he wins? Leadership elections aren't the same as parliamentary elections in terms of candidates getting to know the public.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 12, 2012, 04:46:36 pm
Ian McDonald seems to think the major task for whoever wins the captaincy of Team Red will be in Ontario. I disagree somewhat: that's one of them. The other one is toppling Team Orange in Quebec- in other words, pulling them down from about 42% now to low 30s or high 20s with BQ help.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/Does+really+want/6771238/story.html

As for whether Rae really wants it, I think we can assume he does when he said the announcement will come by month's end.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on June 12, 2012, 10:12:46 pm
I still think once the average Canadian gets to know Trudeau more, they will realize he's not his father.

But I really don't know who can save the Liberals. Rae will play out horribly in Ontario.

But how well will Canadians get to know him unless he wins? Leadership elections aren't the same as parliamentary elections in terms of candidates getting to know the public.

I never said he wouldn't be the leader of the Liberals. Just not Prime Minister. The Liberals excel at choosing leaders who Canadians will detest, and I don't think Trudeau will break the trend. That's all.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 12, 2012, 10:18:57 pm
Now the decision is apparently a tossup, i.e. "Yes, but I'm not announcing for a bit."

http://www.680news.com/news/national/article/372569--trudeau-says-there-s-pressure-on-him-to-run-in-liberal-leadership-race

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1210354--bob-rae-s-wait-for-grit-crown-has-been-long-but-does-party-prefer-justin-trudeau


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: pugbug on June 13, 2012, 03:57:42 am
Ha! I think it's really funny that Trudeau gained popularity after he won that boxing match, almost as if everyone was thinking, "He's a great boxer, he MUST be a great party leader!" I mean, he beat a conservative in the ring, which means he MUST want to beat them in elections (already a given), and his participation in the match at all seems to mean he wants to run for the party leadership.

I know it's not that simple, but the conclusions some people seem to have drawn, especially journalists, are so presumptive and, quite frankly, ridiculous. Technically the match wasn't supposed to be about politics but we all know it was, but THIS, is just so silly...


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on June 13, 2012, 10:18:02 am
WHOA! what? anyone know if this is true?... i thought Rae was actually going to do the wrong thing and run... but i'm stunned if this is true.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1210606--bob-rae-won-t-run-for-liberal-leadership-sources-say?bn=1

Is this a push to have Trudeau run? I think its sentimental, he's a TRUDEAU so they want his as leader. Hes also young, and rather good looking, and arrogantly-charming if that makes sense, but they don't mention him only "Marc Garneau, David McGuinty, Joyce Murray and Dominic LeBlanc"


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 13, 2012, 10:54:33 am
G&M mentions Trudeau. He almost has to run because the other potentials are political unknowns or liabilities.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/rae-wont-seek-liberal-leadership/article4255399/

As usual, Funke is correct.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/06/what-the-liberals-can-learn-from-the-ndp-leadership-race/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 13, 2012, 11:38:09 am
Rae just wrapped up his presser in the Commons foyer. Said the decision was based on a) political calculations b) his previous commitment c) his final decision was made last weekend.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on June 13, 2012, 12:29:46 pm
Ugh. When there's a leadership election for the other party, I usually do try to consider who would make the best Prime Minister if the party was to come into power. I actually think Rae is a good guy and has some solid leadership qualities. I'm kind of disappointed.

He did take one for the team though--Bob Rae wouldn't have been a good fit for the 905.

Here's hoping he knows Trudeau will be a flop and is waiting to be the party's only hope sometime down the road.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on June 13, 2012, 12:39:44 pm
Ugh. When there's a leadership election for the other party, I usually do try to consider who would make the best Prime Minister if the party was to come into power. I actually think Rae is a good guy and has some solid leadership qualities. I'm kind of disappointed.

He did take one for the team though--Bob Rae wouldn't have been a good fit for the 905.

Here's hoping he knows Trudeau will be a flop and is waiting to be the party's only hope sometime down the road.

... if thats the case, Rae you waited for two leaders to flop (and they did)... at this rate he might, MIGHT be leader... when hes 80.

Rae made far too many mistakes to be considered "electable as PM" even if i agree hes a fantastic speaker and has some good leadership qualities.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 13, 2012, 12:52:02 pm
Having heard Rae speak in person, I totally agree with Tommy.

IMO this increases the likelihood that Trudeau will run. The others are too unknown and the party will be a sitting duck for death by media asphyxiation (see BQ for details) with anyone else.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on June 13, 2012, 12:58:43 pm
Well, I hope Justin at least gets a haircut.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 13, 2012, 03:00:25 pm
Trudeau @ presser: "Any decision to reconsider my decision will be discussed quietly with my family... decision won't be made in front of you."

Since Rae by all accounts had everything ready to go before suddenly aborting, I'm still unsure about whether Trudeau will actually take the plunge. Could go either way.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/13/pol-liberal-conference-call-wednesday-rae.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Holmes on June 13, 2012, 04:20:28 pm
::)

Harper and Mulcair would wipe the floor with Trudeau, debate and policy-wise. At least go for someone who is experienced and committed; name recognition in 2012 won't help very much for an election in 2015.

If the Liberals think their problem is the face of the party, and electing a celebrity would reverse their fortunes, then stick a fork in them - they deserve their current situation.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on June 13, 2012, 05:20:48 pm
Wow. Big shocker for sure. This will make for an interesting race (especially if Trudeau stays out).


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on June 13, 2012, 05:26:38 pm
If Trudeau stays out, I'm calling it for McGuinty.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 13, 2012, 05:45:50 pm
If Trudeau stays out, I'm calling it for McGuinty.

Probably, but he also has Ontario baggage. And unlike his brother's provincial opponents both Harper and Mulcair know how to use such material effectively.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Holmes on June 13, 2012, 06:20:12 pm
Ontarians won't vote for McGuinties federally and provincially (and soon, not even provincially).


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on June 13, 2012, 06:47:55 pm
You're right. But electability has never mattered in Liberal leadership races. I'm telling you: The Liberals will chose another flop.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Holmes on June 13, 2012, 06:56:00 pm
It doesn't take a psychic to predict that.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 13, 2012, 07:01:52 pm
Trudeau has an exploratory committee in place, but Ivison reminds us that Rae did too before he aborted. As he reported last week, we won't know the decision till fall. So in the meantime we'll hear from others.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/13/john-ivison-rae-makes-a-graceful-exit-after-reading-the-writing-on-the-wall/

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1210978--walkom-with-rae-gone-liberal-leadership-is-trudeau-s-to-lose


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on June 13, 2012, 07:41:14 pm
You're right. But electability has never mattered in Liberal leadership races. I'm telling you: The Liberals will chose another flop.

Well, as all the prospective candidates are probably flops, it isn't a very risky statement.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 13, 2012, 08:27:28 pm
Susan Delacourt says that strong dissent within the party was the strongest factor, while Bob Hepburn says Rae didn't think he could stay in for the long haul.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1211051--analysis-lethal-mix-of-attack-ads-fractious-party-culture-helped-bring-down-bob-rae

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1211074--bob-rae-the-real-reason-he-won-t-run-for-the-liberal-leadership?bn=1


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 13, 2012, 08:51:11 pm
Sometime next April.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/13/pol-liberal-party-leadership-vote.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on June 13, 2012, 09:42:40 pm
Rae's allusion t/w possibly not running for reelection made me wonder whether even Glen Murray might be a possibility...


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 13, 2012, 09:49:58 pm
Rae will be 67 in 2015 and by that point have been in public life for 37 years, a record exceeded only by Chretien among contemporary politicians. He's definitely earned retirement if he wants it.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 15, 2012, 05:15:31 pm
The rundown...

Coderre: Interested in Montreal's mayoralty, but hopefully he doesn't get it.

Garneau: Wants a draft, ready-made organization, $$$, etc. LOL.

Hall Findlay: See Kennedy.

Kennedy: Interested but waiting on Trudeau.

LeBlanc: See above.


http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/352429/trudeau-songe-a-la-chefferie-liberale


McGuinty: Also wants a draft but has long signaled interest.


Trudeau: Waiting on spousal approval, which Ivison and Oliver among others think will be forthcoming.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/waiting-for-trudeau-liberal-leadership-drama-revolves-around-his-indecision-159162515.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 15, 2012, 07:00:29 pm
Chretien: Plenty of "good candidates" such as LeBlanc/Garneau/Cauchon/Coderre/Trudeau, Trudeau has "proven himself."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/15/pol-liberals-chretien-on-rae-trudeau.html

What surprises me is that despite Chretien's long history with the Rae brothers, Rae didn't tell the old man he wasn't running.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Holmes on June 15, 2012, 09:16:03 pm
I kind of feel like Trudeau is being pressured to run, and that's not really a good thing. It's like, does he even want to run? Would he be totally committed? And does he have a choice - seems like the party insiders and the media is just pushing this onto him as if he's already been crowned the new leader.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 15, 2012, 09:36:53 pm
I kind of feel like Trudeau is being pressured to run, and that's not really a good thing. It's like, does he even want to run? Would he be totally committed? And does he have a choice - seems like the party insiders and the media is just pushing this onto him as if he's already been crowned the new leader.

Scott Reid (pundit, not the MP) compared it to Charest in '98. Does he want to run? He's always said that his kids were the reason for staying out this time.* Having gone from Shermanesque to tossup even before Rae bowed out makes me think he's convinced himself that the work-family balance for a third party leader won't be that much heavier than a third party media favourite who gets more press in a week than most MPs do in a year. Now the last part is convincing Sophie. Does he have a choice? In the sense that he can say no and mean it, yes. But in practical political terms, pretty much no.


*He's on the record as saying 24 Sussex is his ultimate goal. Ambition certainly isn't lacking in his makeup.

Craig Oliver: Trudeau and LeBlanc have a mutual-support pact in place. No surprise.

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/powerplay#clip701273


For more on that lifelong friendship, here's Bob Hepburn in the Star last year.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/989874--hepburn-liberals-look-to-trudeau-and-leblanc


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 16, 2012, 01:04:11 pm
Here's the Chretien interview on The House. Basically says that Trudeau passes the qualification threshold, names Clark, Harper, his own dad as people with equivalent or less experience.

http://www.cbc.ca/thehouse/past-episodes/2012/06/16/the-house-jean-chretien/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 16, 2012, 05:21:39 pm
Crossposting this Forum poll from the General thread.

http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/00294_Canada-wide_-_Federal_Political_Issues_%28Forum_Research%29.pdf


Maybe when Hatman has the time he can plug both results into his model? :P


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on June 16, 2012, 09:38:50 pm
Crossposting this Forum poll from the General thread.

http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/00294_Canada-wide_-_Federal_Political_Issues_%28Forum_Research%29.pdf


Maybe when Hatman has the time he can plug both results into his model? :P

I don't have a federal model. Making predictions at this point is useless, mostly because we don't know what the ridings will look like yet.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 16, 2012, 09:42:09 pm
Plugging it into the 2011 model?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on June 16, 2012, 10:21:01 pm
Plugging it into the 2011 model?

Dont have one. I started my predictions after the election for the provincial races.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 16, 2012, 10:30:10 pm
Apart from an Orange Massacre in Quebec, no idea how those numbers crunch.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on June 16, 2012, 11:53:29 pm
Apart from an Orange Massacre in Quebec, no idea how those numbers crunch.

Which would be awful becauce Trudeau seems very incompetent. He has no business being there and wouldn't be if he wasn't the son of his father.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on June 17, 2012, 04:31:25 am
Which would be awful becauce Trudeau seems very incompetent. He has no business being there and wouldn't be if he wasn't the son of his father.

You make Justin Trudeau sound like the Rob Ford of the federal Liberals.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on June 17, 2012, 08:45:45 am
The FR poll seems to suggest a 10 point swing from the NDP to the Liberals in Quebec if Trudeau was leader.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 17, 2012, 09:05:18 am
The FR poll seems to suggest a 10 point swing from the NDP to the Liberals in Quebec if Trudeau was leader.

There's also a swing from the Tories. Only safe ones are Bernier and Paradis, the others might go down. I think a fair amount of rural seats would be close Red-Orange battles.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on June 17, 2012, 09:31:47 am
I have to say that one of the most useless things I ever see in polling are these "how would you vote if (insert name) was leader of such and such a party?". It's beyond hypothetical and more often than not means nothing if that person wins. According to hypothetical polls like this, if the BC Liberals picked Christy Clark as their new leader they were supposed to sweep the province! Today they are 30 points behi d and in danger of falling into third place.

In Quebec in particular people sometimes get briefly attracted to the latest bright, shiny bauble...a year ago it was Francois Legault...now he has crashed and burned. In fact when the PQ was floundering under Boisclair, polls showed they would do better with Marois, then she became leader and promptly tanked.

IF Justin Trudeau became Liberal leader he would have almost no where to go but down, he is not smart, makes major gaffes every time he opens his mouth and has no idea what he stands for. He inherited his brains from his mother. I'm not sure he would even withstand the scrutiny of a 9 month Liberal leadership contest let alone years as a third party leader. Any poll about JT right is essentially nothing more than a measure of name recognition.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on June 17, 2012, 10:32:23 am
In fact when the PQ was floundering under Boisclair, polls showed they would do better with Marois, then she became leader and promptly tanked.

Well, they *did* do better.  Just not "better enough".  (And with an assist from the ADQ *really* tanking.)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 17, 2012, 11:15:05 am
Eh, screw this. I hope he runs and proves you all wrong :P

On a related note, LeBlanc/MHF/Garneau were on QP and all said they were seriously considering runs.


That said, you guys did bring to mind a lesson that all parties should keep in mind for 2015.

Policy only. Those who get bogged down in inside-baseball procedural stuff or personal attacks will pay an electoral price. Iggy ranted about things that voters perceived as inside baseball, stole the 2006 NDP platform and preached to the choir about how evil Stephen Harper is. Got plastered. The BQ took a cheap shot at Layton's French. Liberals tried to throw the massage parlour smear at him. Voters already decided they liked and trusted Layton and punished his opponents. So the "Trudeau is a charming, handsome airhead" (which even L. Gagnon, not one I'd think would go for personal guttersniping, used in February) meme will either replace or supplant the "EV0L HARPO" one.

This is where I give Tom Mulcair a lot of credit as LOTO. While I disagree with him on just about everything, he sticks to policy and leaves personality and procedure out of it. He didn't say "OMNIBUS IS EV0L AND SO IS HARPER." He disagreed with its contents and made a case for those policy positions. At the same time we stumbled on a solid line which could well demarcate 2015. Liberals and Tories in support of the oilsands (with varying enthusiasm), NDP talking about "Dutch Disease." Much better than the microtargeted tax credits and thematic touchy-feeliness that have been so dominant since at least '04.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Smid on June 17, 2012, 07:55:12 pm
Plugging it into the 2011 model?

Dont have one. I started my predictions after the election for the provincial races.

I've got one, and will plug in numbers. I'm fine, but not spectacular at maths, so my model isn't as detailed as Teddy's. In my opinion, that makes Teddy's better, although some might argue that the margin for error within a poll may produce larger variation than the difference between my model and Teddy's. I'll post a map and seat count later today.

Anyway, just to reiterate, I believe Teddy's model to be better than mine. 

One thing I did notice, however, about the Forum poll. Looking at the cross tabs of who would you vote for/who did you vote for in 2011, it seems they missed about a quarter of people who voted Conservative last election (the poll has 445 of 1482 voting Tory in 2011, which is 30%, however the Conservative vote at the last election was 39.63%). Indeed, this poll has the same proportion voting Tory as voted Tory in the election (30% now and 30% then).

I used that table of voter retention, and multiplied the party movement by last election results to see how it compares with the poll. Assuming, therefore, that the voter retention numbers are accurate, I ended up with the following results, which are still good for the Opposition, but not as incredible, and seem to be a bit more in line with recent polls having the NDP leading by only a couple of points. As I say, I'm not spectacular at maths, so it's possible that my methodology of weighting is wrong and someone could probably explain exactly that, but these are my numbers:

Conservative: 34.4% (as opposed to 30%).
Liberal: 20% (as opposed to 22%).
NDP: 36% (as opposed to 37%).
Green: 3.8% (as opposed to 5%).
Bloc: 5.5% (as opposed to 6% - possible rounding?).
Other: 0.5% (as opposed to 1% - possible rounding?).


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 17, 2012, 08:10:24 pm
Seat projections, seat projections. For the second half of that poll. :P


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Smid on June 17, 2012, 09:13:42 pm
Seat projections, seat projections. For the second half of that poll. :P

Plugging in the percentages given of party support by region for the question of "If the Liberal Leader were Justin Trudeau..." my model gives the following results (I want to re-check some of this... in particular the Atlantic Canada and Quebec results...). The seat totals only add up to 305 because it doesn't estimate the three territories, since I don't think they get polled.

Conservative: 94 (-70)
Liberal: 82 (+48)
NDP: 125 (+23) (major beneficiary in Atlantic Canada, Manitoba/Saskatchewan and BC offsetting a loss of seats in Quebec, also a slight gain in Ontario).
Bloc: 3 (-1)
Greens: 1 (-)

By region, it would be:
Atlantic Canada:
Conservative: 1 (-13)
Liberal: 16 (+4)
NDP: 15 (+9)
Poll - (23%C, 31%L, 38%N, 5%G, 2%O)
Election - (37.87%C, 29.32%L, 29.52%N, 2.99%G)

Quebec:
Conservative: 5 (-)
Liberal: 20 (+13)
NDP: 47 (-12)
Bloc: 3 (-1)
Poll - (12%C, 30%L, 32%N, 4%G, 20%BQ, 2%O)
Election - (16.52%C, 14.16%L, 42.9%N, 2.11%G, 23.45%BQ)

Ontario:
Conservative: 42 (-31)
Liberal: 38 (+27)
NDP: 26 (+4)
Poll - (32%C, 33%L, 30%N, 3%G, 1%O)
Election - (44.43%C, 25.32%L, 25.62%N, 3.75%G)

Man/Sask:
Conservative: 12 (-12)
Liberal: 4 (+2)
NDP: 12 (+10)
Poll - (37%C, 19%L, 37%N, 4%G, 3%O)
Election - (54.86%C, 12.70%L, 28.94%N, 3.15%G)

Alberta:
Conservative: 27 (-)
NDP: 1 (-)
Poll - (62%C, 17%L, 13%N, 6%G, 2%O)
Election - (66.82%C, 9.26%L, 16.82%N, 5.23%G)

BC:
Conservative: 7 (-14)
Liberal: 4 (+2)
NDP: 24 (+12)
Greens: 1 (-)
Poll - (30%C, 21%L, 44%N, 6%G, 0%O)
Election - (45.57%C, 13.42%L, 32.53%N, 7.68%G)

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2482_17_06_12_11_06_48.png)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 17, 2012, 09:15:50 pm
Thanks for that. Now we just have to wait at least till late August, maybe later for any candidate to declare.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Smid on June 18, 2012, 02:08:17 am
NDP is obviously doing well in BC due to the unpopular provincial government. Some of the results there - in the Fraser Valley in particular - seem a bit odd...


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on June 18, 2012, 07:36:32 am
that's one weird map


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 21, 2012, 06:49:58 pm
Martha Hall Findlay calls for the (long-overdue, IMO) termination of supply management. I could see her being the first entrant. The window is between the Olympics and that major Cabinet shuffle reportedly in the works.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/politicians-need-courage-to-dismantle-supply-management/article4359234/

I won't post the polls showing JT dominating the field and having a low-30s baseline in a hypothetical '15 matchup. They're at G&M or TS and even their authors admit that they're not terribly predictive.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on June 22, 2012, 09:14:02 am
Martha Hall Findlay calls for the (long-overdue, IMO) termination of supply management. I could see her being the first entrant. The window is between the Olympics and that major Cabinet shuffle reportedly in the works.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/politicians-need-courage-to-dismantle-supply-management/article4359234/

I won't post the polls showing JT dominating the field and having a low-30s baseline in a hypothetical '15 matchup. They're at G&M or TS and even their authors admit that they're not terribly predictive.



Yup, courage alright to support and allow the import of inferior quality US mIlk (mmm i like mine with extra hormones please); and with little to no guarantee of lower prices, infact NO proof of it (look at Australia). ANYWHO, thats my personal take, i support some form of Supply managemnet... but it is a unique platform to run on... just don't expect tow in back any seats in Eastern ON or rural PQ


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 22, 2012, 09:30:16 am
Eh, let's disagree and leave it there. For now let's wait till Sunday and QP, maybe Craig Oliver will have more scoops for us.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on June 22, 2012, 10:07:25 am
Eh, let's disagree and leave it there. For now let's wait till Sunday and QP, maybe Craig Oliver will have more scoops for us.

Agreed.. or wait, disagreed? :P But i will give her credit for coming forward with a strongly distinctive policy to run on... still reading all the "polls" being done have mini-Trudeau in the lead of prospectives


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 22, 2012, 10:46:26 am
Since Brison is their CPO I wouldn't expect a huge shift from the markers he wants laid down. Trudeau can run on his pro-sands, sustainable development energy plank. Garneau on what, science/tech?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 23, 2012, 10:52:34 am
Delacourt compiles a list of potentials.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1216283--a-long-long-list-of-liberals-are-dreaming-about-leadership-this-summer

LeBland: Only gets in if Trudeau doesn't. I like to think of LeBland as a moderate version of Ed Miliband, and it ain't a compliment.

Garneau: Seems to be leaning yes but could easily become this cycle's Dryden if not careful.

David McGuinty: Sounds like he's getting in.

Coderre: No, he wants to be mayor. And would be godawful too.

Brison: More valuable where he is and a guy who wants to eliminate CGT isn't getting elected Liberal leader. Highly unlikely he runs.

Goodale: Highly unlikely.

Kennedy: Like LeBland, he's only in if JT's out.

MHF: In no matter what.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on June 25, 2012, 08:14:02 am
Here are some names thrown about by the star... a lot more then have been mentioned here:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1216283--a-long-long-list-of-liberals-are-dreaming-about-leadership-this-summer

Pumping-up Marc Garneau:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/marc-garneau-could-have-the-right-stuff-for-liberal-leader/article4367583/

Is Justin really the best?:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/is-justin-trudeau-really-the-liberals-best-option/article4365181/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 25, 2012, 10:02:26 am
I already posted that list in my previous post.

Garneau: Age, he's also 63 like Rae. Plus nearly losing his own seat last year... WVM isn't exactly known as a swing seat.

Gagnon: She said the same thing in February. Bad case of JDS.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on June 25, 2012, 11:39:04 am
I think Christy Clark of BC would be the perfect federal Liberal leader. She has all the necessary ingredients - she's perky, zany and bouncy and doesn't have any policy ideas and has good ties to the tories so she can attract disaffected Tory voters out west. What's not to like? The Liberals need a bouncy cheerleader to lead them out of the wilderness.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 25, 2012, 10:06:56 pm
I think Christy Clark of BC would be the perfect federal Liberal leader. She has all the necessary ingredients - she's perky, zany and bouncy and doesn't have any policy ideas and has good ties to the tories so she can attract disaffected Tory voters out west. What's not to like? The Liberals need a bouncy cheerleader to lead them out of the wilderness.

She's horrendously unpopular, right-wing and the BC Liberals aren't really like the federal Liberals at all, they're not even affliated.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 25, 2012, 10:14:39 pm
I think Christy Clark of BC would be the perfect federal Liberal leader. She has all the necessary ingredients - she's perky, zany and bouncy and doesn't have any policy ideas and has good ties to the tories so she can attract disaffected Tory voters out west. What's not to like? The Liberals need a bouncy cheerleader to lead them out of the wilderness.

She's horrendously unpopular, right-wing and the BC Liberals aren't really like the federal Liberals at all, they're not even affliated.

He was being sarcastic.

Meanwhile no one has much clue as to who would form Team Trudeau were he to pull the trigger. I wouldn't expect any Hillside big names, at least not for the campaign part of it. We do have at least one report that a team is being assembled, but we'll have to wait at least another 2 months before any more concrete news emerges.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/06/25/time-to-gather-round/

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/04/john-ivison-justin-trudeau-can-dominate-attract-the-spotlight-but-can-he-lead-a-team/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 27, 2012, 07:09:33 am
Deborah Coyne to enter. Rick Mercer should have fun with this. :P

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/deborah-coyne-entering-liberal-leadership-race/article4373408/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on June 27, 2012, 06:33:23 pm
Deborah Coyne to enter. Rick Mercer should have fun with this. :P

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/deborah-coyne-entering-liberal-leadership-race/article4373408/

Well, the Liberal vote would collapse even more in Quebec with her, as she is one of the responsibles of failure of Meech.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 27, 2012, 06:40:55 pm
Deborah Coyne to enter. Rick Mercer should have fun with this. :P

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/deborah-coyne-entering-liberal-leadership-race/article4373408/

Well, the Liberal vote would collapse even more in Quebec with her, as she is one of the responsibles of failure of Meech.

If anyone remembers who she is. It'll be lonely out there for at least the next 2 months. I will give her credit for a very detailed manifesto though.

http://www.deborahcoyne.ca/myvisionforcanada/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on June 27, 2012, 06:53:07 pm
Deborah Coyne to enter. Rick Mercer should have fun with this. :P

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/deborah-coyne-entering-liberal-leadership-race/article4373408/

Well, the Liberal vote would collapse even more in Quebec with her, as she is one of the responsibles of failure of Meech.

If anyone remembers who she is. It'll be lonely out there for at least the next 2 months. I will give her credit for a very detailed manifesto though.

http://www.deborahcoyne.ca/myvisionforcanada/

I'm pretty sure some party will remind us if needed.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 28, 2012, 01:30:18 pm
Trudeau's decision will come by summer's end.

http://m.caledoncitizen.com/node/56618


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 04, 2012, 09:06:23 pm
My advice would be to set some sort of polling/fundraising threshold. Else the debates will look like the NY 2010 gubernatorial- complete & utter clusterfark with so much white noise.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1221609--warning-to-liberals-beware-delusional-no-hope-leadership-candidates


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 08, 2012, 12:31:07 pm
Trudeau still mulling his options.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/calgary/Justin%2BTrudeau%2Bstar%2Bpower%2Bfull%2Bdisplay%2BCalgary%2BStampede/6899999/story.html

The professionals and activists will fuse together for the first time since the Strangler's departure if he runs.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1223731--hebert-even-without-a-decision-justin-trudeau-emerging-as-liberal-leadership-frontrunner


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RedPrometheus on July 10, 2012, 04:28:14 am
Why is Trudeau so popular? Did he accomplish anything yet? And what are his political positions?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: lilTommy on July 10, 2012, 06:46:42 am
Why is Trudeau so popular? Did he accomplish anything yet? And what are his political positions?

the Trudeau name is ICONIC, not only in the Liberal Party but in Canada, but especially among Liberals.
Hes also exceptionally media savy, and rather handsome and young... a trifecta if i ever heard one :)
But your point stands; i don't think hes accomplished much?, hes only in his second term and neither were in gov't. Can anyone chim in on possible private members bills or anything hes ever done?

Really hes the darling of the party... because of his name


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 10, 2012, 01:26:22 pm
It seems odd that Trudeau would be viewed so positively, considering the way in which Trudeau managed to earn the hatred of everyone in the country by 1984.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on July 10, 2012, 09:10:18 pm
Why is Trudeau so popular? Did he accomplish anything yet? And what are his political positions?

the Trudeau name is ICONIC, not only in the Liberal Party but in Canada, but especially among Liberals.
Hes also exceptionally media savy, and rather handsome and young... a trifecta if i ever heard one :)
But your point stands; i don't think hes accomplished much?, hes only in his second term and neither were in gov't. Can anyone chim in on possible private members bills or anything hes ever done?

Really hes the darling of the party... because of his name

And with an assist from what put him on the map in his own right: his eulogy for his dad in 2000...


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: CalgaryManifesto on July 12, 2012, 12:59:26 am
I've heard him speak a couple of times, and even as someone with no great love for him or his party, I'll admit he is a heck of a speaker.

He could probably use a couple more years of development in terms of policy understanding. He isn't in the same league as his dad intellectually, but could probably fake it in the short term.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 20, 2012, 09:07:16 am
So this started way earlier than anyone imagined.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/07/20/lawrence-martin-trudeaus-team-takes-shape/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on July 20, 2012, 10:33:53 am
The article is weird. The headline refers to "Trudeau's 'team' taking shape" but then when you read it - there is mention one individual who may or not not get involved if Justin does or does not run...one possible person is not what i call a "team".


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 20, 2012, 01:55:47 pm
He also mentions Tom Pitfield and Ted Johnson, 2 other names. The names are news but the team assembly isn't, Ivison reported that way back in early June. So it looks like an announcement date in September or early October at this stage, barring further tea leaves.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 21, 2012, 10:09:12 am
Forget the "if."

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201207/20/01-4557684-direction-du-plc-justin-trudeau-songe-plus-que-jamais-a-faire-le-saut.php


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on July 21, 2012, 01:13:17 pm
The other parties are licking their lips with glee that the Liberals might go for a gaffe prone airhead like Justin Trudeau as their leader.

Imagine the once great Liberal Party that was once associated with competent fiscal management etc...led by someone whose only qualifiaction is having been a substitute drama teacher in a high school.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on July 21, 2012, 10:08:42 pm
The other parties are licking their lips with glee that the Liberals might go for a gaffe prone airhead like Justin Trudeau as their leader.

Imagine the once great Liberal Party that was once associated with competent fiscal management etc...led by someone whose only qualifiaction is having been a substitute drama teacher in a high school.

As flakey as he is, he is their best hope. I guess that tells you more about the state of the Liberals than anything.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Talleyrand on July 23, 2012, 09:08:55 am
Does anyone think Gordon Campbell or Christy Clark would be good leaders? They might be able to take advantage of the conservative downturn in British Columbia and bring about a Liberal resurgence.

I think a better scenario for Justin Trudeau would be if the Liberal Leadership Conference were delayed till 2014. That way, he wouldn't come under as much scrutiny, plus he's have less time to make potential gaffes. In addition, he'd probably have a good leadership honeymoon compared to Mulcair, who'd have be in for two years, and Harper, who'd have been for eleven years.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 23, 2012, 09:30:37 am
Uh, no. Gordon Campbell is politically disgraced and Christy Clark's headed for a wipeout in 10 months.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Talleyrand on July 23, 2012, 09:42:44 am
Uh, no. Gordon Campbell is politically disgraced and Christy Clark's headed for a wipeout in 10 months.

Lol, I wasn't serious about Clark. And is Gordon Campbell so disgraced he can't lead a party again? I mean, even Bob Rae's become a pretty credible leader.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 23, 2012, 10:00:20 am
16 years elapsed between Rae's defeat and his election as leader. Campbell left only last year and the HST is a prime reason why the Liberals are going down hard. Did I mention he now works for Harper in London?

Anyways, this news means that LeBlanc and Kennedy are almost certainly out. MHF, Garneau and McGuinty probably get in. Only McGuinty has the resources to compete.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Orion0 on July 31, 2012, 06:54:33 am
If Trudeau is serious about being pm then the next election should definitely be sat out. The way things are headed point towards a showdown between NDP and PC. Even more so with the ongoing debates over northern gateway and the NDP poised to take back BC provincially.

The liberals should coalesce around some well-liked policies (balanced budgets, decreased military spending, to name a couple), and focus on an improved national image and winning a few more seats. Forget winning the whole thing, just show some genuine efforts at sound policy and legitimate governing. Then, after the next cycle, and almost guaranteed incompetence by whoever is governing, the liberals could go for their star candidate, and the win.

I also feel compelled to say I don't think Trudeau is necessarily the right pick either, as one absolutely cannot discount the hatred for his name in AB and SK. Although seemingly unnecessary for the win (to court the prairies that is) the liberals must eat into the core of PC support as well as sway those who are eagerly voting NDP now, but may become disheartened later on. I still remember the days when a liberal represented my old Edmonton riding, it's not out of reach. Quebec remains a wild card and to hedge bets on a Trudeau sweep of QC seems farfetched. The liberals desperately need to expand beyond their small contingency from the maritimes, the gta, Montreal and Vancouver. I hate to sound like the westerner I am, but a pick like Redford in 5-7 years could revitalize the party in the prairies as well as in the suburbs, and her consistent calls for cooperation and national consensus seem to be setting the stage for a federal run.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 03, 2012, 10:56:48 pm
MHF continuing to move towards entry but she still has issues with Elections Canada.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1236880--martha-hall-findlay-eyes-run-to-be-liberal-leader


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 13, 2012, 10:01:38 am
Doubtful Kennedy or LeBlanc get in. IMO McGuinty's the only one who can give Trudeau any sort of fight because of his experience, fundraising capability and Rolodex.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1241048--tim-harper-liberal-leadership-summertime-dreaming-clouded-by-night-jitters


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 15, 2012, 06:26:28 pm
Garneau moving closer to entry.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/ex-astronaut-garneau-close-to-decision-about-federal-liberal-leadership--166300966.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 16, 2012, 06:44:57 am
4 candidates: Trudeau, Garneau, Hall Findlay, McGuinty. That should be enough. 

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201208/15/01-4565438-justin-trudeau-un-candidat-intimidant.php


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 18, 2012, 07:17:40 pm
Trudeau's strategy.

http://o.canada.com/2012/08/17/electrifying-and-elusive-justin-trudeau-quietly-mulls-his-political-destiny/

Hard debt caps. Paging MHF.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/2012/08/17/liberals-to-cap-debt-limit-on-leadership-campaign-says-caucus-chair/31855


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 20, 2012, 01:25:05 pm
More likely Coderre runs for mayor. Tremblay's out next year unless he says otherwise. Good riddance.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/08/20/montreal-denis-coderre-liberal-leadership-montreal-mayor.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 30, 2012, 12:48:21 pm
MHF is certainly gearing up.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/08/30/dan-arnold-liberals-dawdle-towards-search-for-new-leader/

Per Don Martin on Twitter, Trudeau won't be announcing during the caucus retreat next week. Probably for Quebec election reasons- my guess is late Sept/early Oct like Mulcair last year.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 02, 2012, 06:29:34 pm
IMO: Mulcair's timeline or thereabouts and the answer is yes.

http://www.windsorstar.com/news/Trudeaumania%2Bcould%2Bhelp%2BLiberals%2Bback%2Btrack/7181306/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 05, 2012, 02:37:36 pm
Debt cap of $75,000, spending limit of $750,000. Tomorrow we should get the election mechanism.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/new-liberal-leadership-rules-to-limit-debt-candidates-can-take-on/article4520187/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on September 05, 2012, 08:21:27 pm
When I saw this thread active, I wondered if someone posted suggesting that Jean Charest run for the Liberal leadership...


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on September 06, 2012, 07:44:35 am
Lol you made my day... :D


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 06, 2012, 10:44:59 am
$950k spending cap and $75k entrance fee. Election will be held April 14, 2013.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1252147--federal-liberals-to-elect-new-leader-in-april-2014

Update from Rae/Crawley presser: previous debt won't officially count, but the tone was of strong discouragement for indebted candidates (i.e. MHF). Details of debates, venue etc. will be unveiled in coming weeks/days.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 06, 2012, 02:22:35 pm
All but official: Trudeau's in.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/09/06/john-ivison-justin-trudeau-will-run-for-liberal-leadership/
 


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: King of Kensington on September 07, 2012, 04:04:08 pm
Who exactly does JT appeal to?   The Liberals need to win back the "blue Liberals" who defected big time post-Martin.  People like Manley and McKenna who would be more appealing have been out of politics for too long and are far too happy making millions in the private sector.  JT in contrast comes as very flaky and I imagine if he tries to say "I'm socially progressive but unlike the NDP I'm fiscally responsible" it will impress nobody.  Mulcair has essentially turned the NDP into a big-tent progressive party (and less of a traditional social democratic party) and is a major threat to the PET/Chretien wing; being the far bigger party also robs the Liberals of their old argument for strategic voting "we're big and they're small."

At least Deborah Coyne has presented serious proposals and seems like the kind of person who could appeal to the "too educated to vote Tory, too bourgeois to vote NDP" demographic (if only she had ever been elected to anything!)

The fact that this looks like a coronation for Justin does not look good for the LPC.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 07, 2012, 05:06:32 pm
At least Deborah Coyne has presented serious proposals and seems like the kind of person who could appeal to the "too educated to vote Tory, too bourgeois to vote NDP" demographic (if only she had ever been elected to anything!)

Basically the same as our Liberal Party.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 07, 2012, 05:11:50 pm
Forum has some answers to your demographic question.

http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/00294_Canada-wide_-_Federal_Political_Issues_(Forum_Research).pdf


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on September 08, 2012, 11:55:56 am
Justin is an object of ridicule yet again. He exhibited remarkably poor political judgement this week and recorded robo-calls for the Ontario Liberals in the provincial byelection in Kitchener_waterloo where he said if Kitchener-Waterloo elected an NDP MPP in the byelection it would lead to the break up of Canada (PS: The NDP won easily and the Liberals were humiliated)...even Liberals are groaning. This from a guy who said just months ago that he thinks that Quebec shoudl separate if Harper is re-elected in 2015.

Justin is a boy not a man, he has zero gravitas and zero qualifiactions. Caveat emptor Liberals.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on September 08, 2012, 03:48:22 pm
One MP who shall remain nameless told me that Trudeau inherited his flakiness from his mother.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Holmes on September 08, 2012, 05:16:41 pm
Perhaps a Trudeau leadership won't be so bad - maybe the Tories could even agree to that. :)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Smid on September 08, 2012, 06:52:09 pm
Perhaps a Trudeau leadership won't be so bad - maybe the Tories could even agree to that. :)

So something like BC, provincially?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 13, 2012, 08:47:48 am
All-Quebec battle between Trudeau, Garneau, Cauchon. No idea how they consider Cauchon to have playah status, but that's just me.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201209/13/01-4573581-plc-trudeau-garneau-et-cauchon-dans-la-course.php

Trudeau: I like the rules but won't be announcing quite yet. IOW, publicly confirming what he leaked to Ivison a week ago.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201209/13/01-4573581-plc-trudeau-garneau-et-cauchon-dans-la-course.php


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 26, 2012, 08:38:54 am
T-6, Trudeau will announce next Tuesday in his riding.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201209/25/01-4577557-course-a-la-direction-du-plc-justin-trudeau-sera-candidat.php


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on September 26, 2012, 10:25:38 am
Justin Trudeau will do for the federal Liberals what Christy Clark did for the BC Liberals. They are very much cut from the same cloth!


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: King of Kensington on September 27, 2012, 02:05:32 pm
http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/09/27/with-justin-trudeau-as-their-leader-liberals-could-easily-win-federal-election-exclusive-poll/

According to this poll, the Liberal fantasy that the "Orange Wave" is a blip and Canadians will drop the NDP like a hot potato to vote for Justin is true and return to their "natural party of government" is true!


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 27, 2012, 02:10:01 pm
LOL Environics given their AB/QC results.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Holmes on September 27, 2012, 04:59:33 pm
Ahahaha. Grab the popcorn! Justin should thank his hair and his dear old daddy, and hope that voters don't realize that it's all he's got. But luckily for him, they probably won't.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on September 27, 2012, 09:58:47 pm
Yikes.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: King of Kensington on September 28, 2012, 06:26:05 pm
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/09/28/kelly-mcparland-liberals-transform-themselves-into-the-lindsay-lohan-party/

Quote
Yet you have to wonder. Here’s a party that, after its most recent drubbing, swore on Laurier’s grave that it would be thinking long and deep about its place in the world, what it stands for and what it believes, and wouldn’t be coming back to Canadians for their vote until it had some good solid answers, and policies to go along with them. Now Justin wiggles by and they’re begging shamelessly for a kiss. Just consider what it all says about them:

1. After the Ignatieff debacle they swore off coronations, pledging they’d learned their lesson. Now they’re ready to hand Justin the crown the moment he asks for it.

2. Rather than sort out a solid package of policies and principles, they’re happy to pick the leader first and agree to believe whatever he believes. In Justin’s case this is particularly risky – you could even say foolhardy – given how few utterances he has made on any of the issues.

3. Admittedly the Liberals don’t have the bench strength they once enjoyed, but they’re not totally without alternatives. While the party is throwing itself at Justin, it’s ignoring the lonely astronaut in the corner. Marc Garneau – who may or may not run now that Trudeau is in the race – is an engineer, a rocket scientist, boasts a degree in electrical engineering from the Imperial College of Science and Technology in London, and was the first Canadian in space. Justin Trudeau is a dabbler – he dabbled in teaching, dabbled in the arts, dabbled in acting, dabbled in activism. Now he’s dabbling in politics. Which of these two men would you rather have by your side in a crisis?

4. Once again the party is betting on the star candidate, the rock star, the name that will get a few fast headlines. Sound familiar? Michael Ignatieff at least had credentials – intellectual, author, historian, Harvard professor. Yet couldn’t pull it off. Is charisma and great hair enough of a substitute.

5. If the party really thought he was that hot a commodity, don’t you think he’d have got a weightier portfolio than critic for Youth, Post-Secondary Education, and Amateur Sport?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 28, 2012, 07:29:07 pm
Pretty clear who Chretien's voting for.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/09/28/pol-chretien-trudeau-justin-france-order-canada.html

Endorsements aplenty.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/09/26/grit-mps-pacetti-simms-back-trudeau-for-leader-trudeau%E2%80%99s-national-campaign/32256

Regan considering a run.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/canada/141147-regan-ponders-run-at-liberal-leadership


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 01, 2012, 03:04:20 pm
Kickoff tour will be MVT.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1264831--justin-trudeau-to-kick-off-liberal-leadership-campaign-in-quebec-b-c-and-ontario

Endorsements aplenty.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201210/03/01-4579986-dominic-leblanc-renonce-a-briguer-la-direction-du-plc.php

http://www.napaneeguide.com/2012/10/03/trudeau-nets-early-endorsement

http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/143170-mp-eyking-backs-trudeaus-liberal-leadership-bid


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: CLARENCE 2015! on October 03, 2012, 04:24:32 pm
I never liked Trudeau... and does this kid have anything special or is he just Trudeau's son? He needs a damn haircut- looks like a drummer in a rock band


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on October 03, 2012, 05:03:34 pm
I never liked Trudeau... and does this kid have anything special or is he just Trudeau's son? He needs a damn haircut- looks like a drummer in a rock band

Well, he is Trudeau's son. He did nothing special, unless being goofy counts.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DC Al Fine on October 06, 2012, 11:13:08 am
I never liked Trudeau... and does this kid have anything special or is he just Trudeau's son? He needs a damn haircut- looks like a drummer in a rock band

If his last name wasn't Trudeau, he wouldn't have been a serious contender to be the Liberal candidate in his riding much less their leader.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Orion0 on October 06, 2012, 12:15:14 pm
Ugh this will be a crowning ceremony not a leadership race. The polls showing a revived liberal party under Trudeau are only inflating this balloon. Generational politics indeed, as at uni most are open if not outright supportive of Justin. And keep in mind I go to a university where conservative student groups outnumber liberal/leftist ones. It's good politics, taking the hope n change message to the youth, even if it is hollow sounding.

If his last name wasn't Trudeau, he wouldn't have been a serious contender to be the Liberal candidate in his riding much less their leader.

This. Nailed it.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 18, 2012, 07:24:42 pm
Sgro: David McGuinty interested, Dalton not so much. This contradicts just about everyone else we've heard opine on David, so would like another source. Garneau wants to run but so far doesn't have the resources, human or otherwise.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/10/18/liberal-mp-sgro-says-david-mcguinty-interested-in-grit-leadership-bid-shocked-if/32483


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 12, 2012, 05:10:33 pm
MHF is getting in on Wednesday, per Twitter.

http://twitter.com/VassyKapelos/status/268096375160463360/photo/1

Murray's in next week, Garneau "shortly."

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/with-start-gun-poised-to-fire-liberal-contenders-running-out-of-elbow-room-179007261.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 13, 2012, 12:03:00 pm
Wrong thread. This is LPC, not OLP. ;)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on November 13, 2012, 12:07:06 pm
Wrong thread. This is LPC, not OLP. ;)

Oops. Moved it.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 15, 2012, 05:05:33 pm
Garneau's getting in next Wednesday.

http://www.edmontonexaminer.com/2012/11/15/marc-garneau-to-launch-liberal-leadership-bid


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 19, 2012, 06:08:14 pm
David McGuinty is out as expected.

http://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/david-mcguinty-not-running-for-liberal-leadership-1.1044983


Trudeau supports the NEXEN sale.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion/op-ed/Trudeau+Canada+should+approve+sale+Nexen/7572190/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: mileslunn on November 19, 2012, 08:20:37 pm
Martha Hall Findlay could be interesting.  I doubt she will win, but she could easily expose Trudeau's weaknesses.  She also strikes me as a blue liberal thus she probably wouldn't pick up much from the NDP but could siphon off some soft Tory supporters, particularly in the crucial 905 belt.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: King of Kensington on November 19, 2012, 10:05:34 pm
I don't think Martha Hall Findlay will be that formidable, given that she was defeated in Willowdale.  Garneau will be the main challenger.  The Astronaut vs. The Dilettante. 


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 19, 2012, 11:12:58 pm
What interests me is how none of these ABJ people have any factional ties, therefore neither infrastructure nor $$$ will be forthcoming. Whereas last time the Chretienites splintered between Rae and Dion with JC himself backing Rae and the Martinets backing Iggy.

Garneau: He's also not that great a politician. (Nearly losing WVM, among other things) The one putting up more of a policy fight will be MHF.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: King of Kensington on November 19, 2012, 11:35:31 pm
In a lot of ways Garneau strikes me as a Ken Dryden type.   Nobody would doubt they are very competent and accomplished people, but they are very awkward politicians.  


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on November 19, 2012, 11:46:49 pm
What interests me is how none of these ABJ people have any factional ties, therefore neither infrastructure nor $$$ will be forthcoming. Whereas last time the Chretienites splintered between Rae and Dion with JC himself backing Rae and the Martinets backing Iggy.

Garneau: He's also not that great a politician. (Nearly losing WVM, among other things) The one putting up more of a policy fight will be MHF.

Actually, Garneau should have lost his riding. It was NDP target #2 on the island. The fact that he kept it shows some personal strength.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 20, 2012, 07:51:39 pm
Garneau's getting in tomorrow. Also, everyone's getting Brisonomical. Hopefully he gets tapped as Trudeau's deputy.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/11/20/john-ivison-with-marc-garneau-set-to-announce-leadership-bid-liberals-looking-more-and-more-like-progressive-conservatives/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 20, 2012, 08:18:53 pm
The fact that he kept it shows some personal strength.

It might do. It might also just be reflective of the demographics of the riding; it's not exactly full of the sort of people who swung especially enthusiastically dipperwards.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 20, 2012, 08:37:52 pm
Don't forget the Ville-Marie part stretches downtown with lots of students and younger voters. There wasn't any rise in Tory support like suburban Ontario, just a straight swing from Red to Orange.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on November 20, 2012, 09:13:59 pm
I guess it's a lot like Toronto Centre then.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 20, 2012, 09:28:39 pm
A lot more Ville-Marie than Westmount.

http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/PopUpWindows.asp?ED=24075


Apparently Murray will be the token left-Liberal in the race. Go figure.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: King of Kensington on November 20, 2012, 09:30:18 pm
Quite a bit.  I guess the proposed Westmount-NDG ("Wilder-Penfield!") would be more like the proposed St. Paul's though.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 20, 2012, 09:41:41 pm
From Delacourt's Twitter feed, the debate dates and venues have been announced. Nothing about the qual criteria, at least so far. Ideally being a current or former MP would be it, but doubt they go that far.

1: Jan. 20, Vancouver
2. Feb. 2, Winnipeg
3: Feb. 16, Toronto
4. Mar. 4, Halifax
5: Mar. 23, Montreal


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: King of Kensington on November 21, 2012, 12:52:28 am
The Liberals won elections under Chretien/Martin by being perceived as sound economic managers among voters in the suburbs.  Garneau seems more likely to exude this sort of competence than Trudeau which is an advantage he would have facing the general electorate. 



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on November 21, 2012, 10:54:21 am


Apparently (Joyce) Murray will be the token left-Liberal in the race. Go figure.

That's pretty laughable. Joyce Murray's previous claim to fame was to have been a cabinet minister in the ultra-rightwing first term Gordon Campbell government. She went berzerk as a Campbell BC Liberal - first as environment minister where she was pilloried as the "minister AGAINST the environment" where she gleefully tore up environmental regulations and did as she was told by the forestry and mining industry...then she was health minister where she went out of her way to privatize services, and crush the union representing the most low paid health care workers.   


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 23, 2012, 03:34:14 am
Garneau let the cat out of the bag, still no official announcement.

http://www.leaderpost.com/technology/Garneau+touts+importance+west/7598325/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 23, 2012, 07:43:28 pm
Garneau is announcing next Wednesday.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/11/23/marc-garneau-to-announce-liberal-leadership-bid-next-week


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on November 23, 2012, 08:04:21 pm
I don't know much about Canadian politics, but I was wondering whether something happened after the most recent elections, or things are just returning to "normal".
What I mean by this is that the NDP was for the first time the 2nd biggest party and the Greens also did very well.
But when I was looking at the most recent polls, Trudeau, if he became the leader would be able to win the federal elections, by getting more than half the voters who went with the NDP in 2011.
Are these people simply "returning home"?
Has the NDP lost some of its appeal due to its leader's death?
Has the NDP done a bad job in the House?
Also what about the Greens?  Why are they losing voters to Trudeau?
Why is Trudeau so popular?  Is it his good looks, his father or something I am not aware of?

Any answers would be greatly appreciated!


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on November 23, 2012, 11:54:11 pm
The same people who were attracted to Layton's charisma are also attracted to Trudeau's. There is a large percentage of people who are on the non ideological-left that can switch between both parties.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: King of Kensington on November 24, 2012, 01:48:58 pm
That may be so, but I don't want anyone to get the impression that Layton and Justin Trudeau are/were of equal intellectual calibre.

When Jack was 30 he was a faculty member at Ryerson University.  Justin had a very thin resume at 35, he was a substitute drama teacher with no real accomplishments whatsoever except having a famous father.   His father of course was one of Quebec's leading intellectuals long before that.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 25, 2012, 07:52:19 am
That may be so, but I don't want anyone to get the impression that Layton and Justin Trudeau are/were of equal intellectual calibre.

When Jack was 30 he was a faculty member at Ryerson University.  Justin had a very thin resume at 35, he was a substitute drama teacher with no real accomplishments whatsoever except having a famous father.   His father of course was one of Quebec's leading intellectuals long before that.

True, but the sort of people hatman is talking about don't really care about intellectual bona fides.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on November 26, 2012, 12:57:58 am
There's also the fact that Jack Layton was actually an honourable man and Trudeau is a grade-A snob/opportunist.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on November 26, 2012, 01:05:00 am
So is the NDP expected to lose many of its voters because of Layton's death?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on November 26, 2012, 01:46:16 am
I'm not the biggest follower of Canadian politics (probably should be, considering I'm a Canadian :P), but I don't think Jack's death is totally to blame. Had Bob Rae decided to seek the Liberal leadership, Trudeau probably would've waited and a lot of those NDP seats would've been more secure. Trudeau as leader will probably create a mindless bandwagon effect that should do a lot to equalize the standing of the Liberals and NDP.

That said, it's entirely possible that people will really dislike Justin when they see what he's actually about. All you have to do is listen to the guy speak to know he's totally full of shit. Much like how the first presidential debate showed people that Mitt was a viable alternative, the Candian debates could actually show people that Justin isn't the man they think he is.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on November 26, 2012, 08:16:57 am
Trudeau is one gaffe away from being a flavour of the month. But, he needs to make that gaffe...


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 11:43:28 am
Joyce Murray is in, she's giving a presser right now.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/national/Joyce+Murray+enters+federal+Liberal+leadership+race/7610591/story.html


She supports a carbon tax, a new electoral system and ABC cooperation.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Joyce+Murray+joins+Liberal+leadership+calls+cooperation/7610636/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on November 26, 2012, 01:08:53 pm
So Joyce Murray - formerly a cabinet minister in Gordon Campbell's rabidly rightwing "BC Liberal" government - is coming out for cooperation on the left to defeat Harper. I guess she has experience with "cooperation", as a BC Liberal she was a powerful cabinet minister for a party that was created as a "unite the right" coalition to keep the NDP out of power.

What a hypocrit!


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 27, 2012, 10:01:09 pm
I don't know much about Canadian politics, but I was wondering whether something happened after the most recent elections, or things are just returning to "normal".
What I mean by this is that the NDP was for the first time the 2nd biggest party and the Greens also did very well.
But when I was looking at the most recent polls, Trudeau, if he became the leader would be able to win the federal elections, by getting more than half the voters who went with the NDP in 2011.
Are these people simply "returning home"?
Has the NDP lost some of its appeal due to its leader's death?
Has the NDP done a bad job in the House?
Also what about the Greens?  Why are they losing voters to Trudeau?
Why is Trudeau so popular?  Is it his good looks, his father or something I am not aware of?

Any answers would be greatly appreciated!


The Greens did mediocre in the last election. They won their first seat, but their vote share decreased substantially.

To explain the NDP/Liberal phenomenon, there is a large portion of the electorate who are anti-Harper voters who don't have any party loyalty. These people would be safe Democrats in America, but since we have multiple left leaning parties they have to choose one. They will just vote for whichever left leaning party looks like a winner. The combination of the NDP losing their leader and a charismatic Liberal leader in-waiting is causing some of those generic lefties to shift NDP.

Our Greens are much more right wing than normal Greens (I could see myself voting for them if the Conservatives bugged me enough). While most Greens serve as a hard left party, our Greens are slightly left of centre, and around the same spot as the Liberals and let's their supporters easily shift between the two.

Trudeau is popular because he's pretty, charismatic, and his last name is Trudeau. This may not last though. Much as I hated his Dad, I had a grudging respect for him. Justin strikes me as an airhead.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2012, 10:13:58 pm
So Garneau's in tomorrow morning, no leaks about what his platform will be. We know he's on the party right- indeed apparently had PC sympathies in the '80s. Murray might be doing a backflip from her Victorian days to grab ideological left-Liberals disappointed in Trudeau's stances on trade/energy.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 28, 2012, 09:48:41 am
Garneau is in, the field is complete.

http://o.canada.com/2012/11/28/garneau-enters-liberal-race-pledging-to-focus-on-economy/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 28, 2012, 02:23:44 pm
Garneau is in, the field is complete.

No MP's with an axe to grind willing to run?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 28, 2012, 02:52:47 pm
Who were you thinking of?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 28, 2012, 03:40:52 pm
Who were you thinking of?

David Orchard! Yeah I know he's not an MP, but I figured some fringe guy has to join the race right?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 28, 2012, 04:26:15 pm
The debates should be interesting... if the stage isn't too crowded with people other than Coyne and the 4 MPs.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Meeker on November 28, 2012, 05:19:35 pm
I'm guessing the campaigns have taken note of this and are adjusting accordingly, but the method of selecting a winner for this is pretty wacky. It's basically the U.S. electoral college if all 50 states had an equal number of votes. Any candidate who can rack up victories in rural/exurban ridings and not get slaughtered in suburban/urban ones has a pretty good chance of victory. A vote coming from rural Alberta, or any riding with very few LPC supporters, is worth significantly more than a vote from Toronto or Montreal.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 28, 2012, 06:41:14 pm
The debates should be interesting... if the stage isn't too crowded with people other than Coyne and the 4 MPs.

I think we'll be ok. It's not like all of them could raise the 75k entrance fee.

I'm guessing the campaigns have taken note of this and are adjusting accordingly, but the method of selecting a winner for this is pretty wacky. It's basically the U.S. electoral college if all 50 states had an equal number of votes. Any candidate who can rack up victories in rural/exurban ridings and not get slaughtered in suburban/urban ones has a pretty good chance of victory. A vote coming from rural Alberta, or any riding with very few LPC supporters, is worth significantly more than a vote from Toronto or Montreal.

That's the Conservative's system IIRC.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Meeker on November 28, 2012, 06:45:30 pm
Here are the rules if anyone else wants to read them: http://www.liberal.ca/leadership-2013/faq/

It also means that any sort of national polling is pretty worthless unless one candidate has a massive lead in April.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Smid on November 28, 2012, 06:50:44 pm
I'm guessing the campaigns have taken note of this and are adjusting accordingly, but the method of selecting a winner for this is pretty wacky. It's basically the U.S. electoral college if all 50 states had an equal number of votes. Any candidate who can rack up victories in rural/exurban ridings and not get slaughtered in suburban/urban ones has a pretty good chance of victory. A vote coming from rural Alberta, or any riding with very few LPC supporters, is worth significantly more than a vote from Toronto or Montreal.

So basically, the US Senate?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 28, 2012, 06:52:52 pm
As I always say: best logistician wins the war. Garneau's campaign is being managed by Andy Mitchell, BTW.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Meeker on November 28, 2012, 07:06:45 pm
I'm guessing the campaigns have taken note of this and are adjusting accordingly, but the method of selecting a winner for this is pretty wacky. It's basically the U.S. electoral college if all 50 states had an equal number of votes. Any candidate who can rack up victories in rural/exurban ridings and not get slaughtered in suburban/urban ones has a pretty good chance of victory. A vote coming from rural Alberta, or any riding with very few LPC supporters, is worth significantly more than a vote from Toronto or Montreal.

So basically, the US Senate?

A body with an equally wacky method of election :)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 28, 2012, 07:08:00 pm
Here are the rules if anyone else wants to read them: http://www.liberal.ca/leadership-2013/faq/

It also means that any sort of national polling is pretty worthless unless one candidate has a massive lead in April.

Mea culpa


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 28, 2012, 07:15:48 pm
Chantal Hebert on Garneau.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1294625--hebert-marc-garneau-is-the-liberals-insurance-plan


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: King of Kensington on November 29, 2012, 12:21:19 am
Justin is such a bad actor:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gp_O3liJpu8


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 29, 2012, 03:11:23 am
Justin is such a bad actor:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gp_O3liJpu8

When I first saw that, I had to find the original speech, because it looked so fake, I couldn't tell if it was faked.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Meeker on November 29, 2012, 04:34:37 am
Justin is such a bad actor:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gp_O3liJpu8

Oh my God. Nearly unbelievable. The too strong emotion, the third person... wow.

Also, what the hell is up with the staging? Could they not find a podium and also put a little distance between him and the reporters? Bizarre optics.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Holmes on November 29, 2012, 08:00:50 am
Most, uh... media blitzes are like that in Parliament. But sometimes, the reporters are a lot more closer to the person and squished. Usually for Mulcair or high ranking people in Harper's cabinet (Harper himself rarely addresses the media directly).


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 29, 2012, 08:53:07 am
Justin is such a bad actor:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gp_O3liJpu8

Oh my God. Nearly unbelievable. The too strong emotion, the third person... wow.

Also, what the hell is up with the staging? Could they not find a podium and also put a little distance between him and the reporters? Bizarre optics.

Oh God, kill me.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: King of Kensington on November 29, 2012, 06:41:53 pm
You can see one of the journalists try to hide her laughter at 1:10 and another says "Oh come on!" when JT is done. 


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 29, 2012, 07:50:57 pm
How many times is that video gonna be posted?

Anyhoo, another white-noiser in.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/tech-guru-george-takach-joins-crowded-federal-liberal-leadership--181323231.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on November 29, 2012, 07:53:39 pm
What it is telling than all those marginal candidates are trying to run?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Smid on November 29, 2012, 08:09:08 pm
What it is telling than all those marginal candidates are trying to run?

Last chance to nominate for captain of the Titanic?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Holmes on November 29, 2012, 08:15:22 pm
Wasn't the NDP ridiculed just earlier this year for having so many leadership candidates? Geez.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 29, 2012, 08:16:02 pm
Running for riding nominations, I guess.

Holmes: We'll see who pays the $75k. Hopefully the debate stage isn't too cluttered.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 30, 2012, 10:09:41 am
Trudeau said this morning that the gun registry, so far as he's concerned, is dead.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 30, 2012, 05:03:52 pm
Trudeau said this morning that the gun registry, so far as he's concerned, is dead.
Wow, that's the first non aggravating quip I've ever heard from him... unless he tossed back his hair, then it's still aggravating.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 01, 2012, 11:20:52 am
A lengthy Trudeau interview on The House.

http://www.cbc.ca/thehouse/popupaudio.html?clipIds=2311710990


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 02, 2012, 10:38:04 am
Fundraising update: Trudeau has raised $95k, Coyne $3k. Next entry fee installment is on the 15th.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/12/liberal-leadership-could-be-settled-by-fundraising/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DC Al Fine on December 02, 2012, 02:16:29 pm
Good, we should be seeing some dropouts soon.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Orion0 on December 02, 2012, 04:17:39 pm
Trudeau said this morning that the gun registry, so far as he's concerned, is dead.
Wow, that's the first non aggravating quip I've ever heard from him... unless he tossed back his hair, then it's still aggravating.

For craps and giggles, Trudeau has a wonderful YouTube interview where he defends the long gun registry, and the great numbers of lives it has saved. Viewable over here : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2pJVNcjuzY

And just in case that wasn't enough to decry his blatant hypocrisy and opportunism, here's a tweet from Justin himself, oh how I wish he would just go away. https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/131337935911010304


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 13, 2012, 11:13:29 pm
Lordy, Lordy, Lordy. Tamil Tiger front groups all over again.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/12/12/sponsor-of-upcoming-islamic-event-featuring-justin-trudeau-lost-charitable-status-due-to-hamas-link/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on December 13, 2012, 11:36:10 pm
Lordy, Lordy, Lordy. Tamil Tiger front groups all over again.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/12/12/sponsor-of-upcoming-islamic-event-featuring-justin-trudeau-lost-charitable-status-due-to-hamas-link/

Hmm. How bad could this get?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 13, 2012, 11:45:07 pm
Certain senior Liberals (Martin among them, when he was PM) have associated with TT front groups in the past. Last election there was a controversy involving Tory candidate, now MP, Wai Young getting endorsed by a man acquitted of involvement in Air India.

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/wai-young-defends-herself-in-living-room-chat-1.636658


On whether this affects Trudeau: depends how much long-term traction this gets. He's personally popular at least in the Montreal Jewish community, as are Harper and Mulcair. What might well stick is yet another entry into the bad judgment file, particularly on foreign policy. Which also can be tied back into legacy.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 18, 2012, 06:00:18 pm
Granola backlash. Not like Cauchon or Axworthy have any influence nowadays.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/progressive-liberals-alarmed-as-federal-leadership-contenders-tilt-right-183995311.html

Garneau: Ban assault weapons.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/liberal-leadership-hopeful-marc-garneau-floats-ban-on-assault-rifles-183985921.html



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 20, 2012, 09:07:55 am
Cauchon getting in. Presumably to be the guy telling Garneau and JT "you guys are betraying TRUPROG!!!"

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/12/20/cauchon-poised-to-enter-liberal-leadership-race/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 30, 2012, 03:42:11 pm
MHF is closer to Redford than Clark on Gateway, also repeats her "celebrity" jibe (though I'm betting, not at the debate in 3 weeks).

http://www.globalnews.ca/liberals+need+to+take+stronger+stands+hall+findlay/6442779859/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 07, 2013, 08:53:04 pm
JT has raised $600k.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/justin-trudeaus-leadership-campaign-rakes-in-more-dough-than-mulcairs--185941952.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 09, 2013, 05:36:09 pm
At least 100k supporters will vote.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2013/01/09/liberals-say-they-expect-100000-plus-eligible-voters-for-leadership-at-least/33270?page_requested=1

Garneau still a distant second.

http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/Barbara+Yaffe+Justin+Trudeau+falters+Marc+Garneau/7796993/story.html

Reminder: first debate in Vancouver on the 20th, will be live on CPAC.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Nichlemn on January 09, 2013, 06:59:44 pm
lol, $600k may be a lot by Canadian standards, but it'd barely finance a primary for a US House seat.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 09, 2013, 07:22:57 pm
I'm not a fan, but that's our CF regime for ya. The spending limit is $900k, to put it in context.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 09, 2013, 08:03:55 pm
What's Brison waiting for? He'd be the ideal deputy for JT... but an endorsement would presumably increase those chances.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/404423-brison-lone-ns-liberal-mp-not-to-endorse-trudeau-yet


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on January 09, 2013, 08:09:23 pm
I'm not a fan, but that's our CF regime for ya. The spending limit is $900k, to put it in context.

$900k?  Sounds good to me!


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 10, 2013, 08:21:26 am
Cauchon will be getting in soon, LOL. Remember when he used to be someone? :P

http://demarchy.ca/post/40162055167/martin-cauchon-everyone


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 11, 2013, 05:06:23 pm
Regan formally endorses Justin.

http://www.ngnews.ca/News/Local/2013-01-11/article-3154955/Regan-endorses-Trudeaus-leadership-bid/1


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 12, 2013, 02:50:33 pm
Regan formally endorses Justin.

http://www.ngnews.ca/News/Local/2013-01-11/article-3154955/Regan-endorses-Trudeaus-leadership-bid/1

Fun story: On election night in 2011, Geoff Regan called our campaign headquarters to try and concede defeat. :D


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 12, 2013, 03:18:11 pm
I think that's a wrap for big-name endorsements in this race. 9 candidates on that stage next week... gonna be messy. Too bad the LPC didn't limit these to current or former MPs.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 12, 2013, 05:42:33 pm
Somewhat related: Coyne's memoir. :P

http://www.thestar.com/news/insight/article/1313900--deborah-coyne-s-memoir-about-politics-and-pierre-trudeau


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 13, 2013, 08:51:34 pm
Cauchon is in.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/former-cabinet-minister-cauchon-makes-late-entry-into-liberal-leadership-race/article7307570/?cmpid=rss1&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Zioneer on January 13, 2013, 09:10:07 pm
I don't know why, but even though I don't understand French, Canadian elections are easier for me to understand and follow than UK or Aussie elections. Going to be following these Canadian politics threads, though obviously cheering on the NDP and to the lesser extent the Liberals.

I understand that Justin Trudeau is a "charismatic young scion of a beloved/hated politician" type, but at a loss about Canadian Liberal politics beyond that. I assume he hasn't gotten the party united behind him, so who are the prominent anti-JT contenders?

EDIT: Whoops, nevermind, noticed the first page.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 13, 2013, 10:11:22 pm
Trudeau has basically gotten the party behind him. He has enthusiastic grassroots support and the endorsement of the party's top powerbrokers, from the former prime ministers (including his mentor Jean Chretien, the party's elder statesman) on down. His chief opponents, Montreal MP Marc Garneau and ex-Toronto MP Martha Hall Findlay, don't have any sort of factional or geographic base from which to mount an effective challenge. Nor do they have the establishment connections that Trudeau does.

Liberal politics more generally: There are left and right factions, though that pertains only to economic and not social matters. Because of the Chretien/Martin (centre-left and right-wing respectively) leadership rivalry-turned-civil-war in the '90s and Aughts, which were a clash of personal ambitions rather than anything ideological, these factions are often called Chretienite or Martinet respectively even though both men are long retired from active politics. Stephane Dion was a Chretienite left-winger, Michael Ignatieff a right-winger and politically a puppet of the Martin operatives who recruited him into politics. Interim leader Bob Rae has old and close ties with Chretien, he doesn't openly identify with either faction. The right faction's current leader is finance critic and policy guru Scott Brison- he hasn't endorsed anyone and isn't expected to.

As for Trudeau, he's by bloodline and ideological leaning a member of the dominant Chretien/center-left wing but his personal appeal transcends faction or ideology within the party.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 13, 2013, 10:57:02 pm
Per Twitter, Borys W has endorsed Trudeau.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 14, 2013, 05:08:42 pm
Hear, hear. If you lose 2-1 in your own riding, your candidacy doesn't pass the laugh test.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1314869--has-martin-cauchon-joined-liberal-leadership-race-too-late-hebert


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 15, 2013, 02:54:31 pm
Cauchon: a political loser surrounded by a bunch of losers, some controversial. Oh, and the president of Garneau's own riding association is defecting to Trudeau.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201301/15/01-4611426-des-liberaux-perplexes-devant-martin-cauchon.php


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 16, 2013, 05:17:51 pm
Trudeau gets Lise St-Denis' endorsement.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-nouvelliste/politique-canadienne/201301/16/01-4611981-justin-trudeau-de-passage-en-mauricie.php

And Hedy Fry's.

http://www.straight.com/news/343326/vancouver-mp-hedy-fry-backs-justin-trudeau-liberal-leadership


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 16, 2013, 10:36:45 pm
MHF: I may not run if I don't win.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/hall-findlay-wont-promise-to-run-in-2015-if-liberal-leadership-bid-fails-187187681.html

Debate format.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberal-candidates-line-up-for-final-stretch-of-leadership-race/article7452253/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 18, 2013, 08:26:32 am
Murray interview.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1316602--liberal-leadership-debate-in-vancouver-will-give-candidate-joyce-murray-time-to-shine

Policy might get short-shrifted on Sunday.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/01/17/pol-advancer-liberal-leader-debate-sunday.html?cmp=rss

Rules, rules, more rules.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberal-rivals-clash-over-whether-campaigns-own-supporters-they-sign-up/article7514663/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 20, 2013, 03:54:05 pm
Debate's about to start on CBC and CPAC.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 20, 2013, 04:13:46 pm
Garneau: We must talk about policy, I was the first one to start talking about it. Rabbit-punched Trudeau through Kim Campbell (!) by saying a campaign is the time to talk about policy. Passionate and confident.

Murray: Cooperate, resume.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 20, 2013, 04:15:35 pm
Trudeau: I have BC roots, middle class suffering, rekindle the flame, unity.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Foucaulf on January 20, 2013, 04:33:03 pm
It's great how the moderators cut off the mic right when a candidate's time is up, so several of the candidates' responses stop mid-sentence. People should watch the debate for that reason alone.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 20, 2013, 04:39:18 pm
2nd question: What do you answer to anti-Liberal progressives.

Garneau: Understand your frustration, but no cooperation. We're Grits, not Dippers!

Coyne: No cooperation.

Cauchon: LPC greatest democratic institution in the world (ROFLMAO). Non-ideological pragmatism.

Bertschi: No merger.

MHF: We are fiscally and socially responsible.

Yep, but too many candidates on stage.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 20, 2013, 04:41:38 pm
Murray: Cooperate!

Open debate.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 20, 2013, 04:44:40 pm
Garneau: Switch the voting system to preferential balloting.

MHF: Yes.

Trudeau: Thanks for that, we talked about this last year. Great idea but we need to focus on rebuilding our party.

Cauchon: Same thing.

Murray's getting hit from all sides for this cooperation idea like Cullen was. MHF even said "where's your confidence" in those precise words.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 20, 2013, 04:49:52 pm
MHF/Cauchon/Coyne: King won in 1926 (!) partly on joint tickets. Would you do the same?

Coyne: No.

MHF: No, I'm a proud Grit. Have some confidence. Fiscally & socially responsible.

Cauchon: 338 candidates full stop.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 20, 2013, 04:56:27 pm
Plan for transitioning away from fossil fuels?

Garneau: Space reference, disincentives to pollute.

Bertschi: Shot at Garneau's astronomy. (WTF?)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 20, 2013, 05:12:37 pm
Murray/Trudeau/McCrimmon. Another (!) question on coop.

McCrimmon: National petitions, then send it off to parties for study.

Trudeau: Preferential ballot, no coop. Made a decent case for it.

Murray: Throw out Harper!

Trudeau: Important, but what values would you jettison? No polarization.

McCrimmon: We need to regain trust, this plan would look like a cheap power play.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 20, 2013, 05:18:48 pm
Social housing.

Trudeau: Coordinate infrastructure investment.

Bertschi: Work with the private sector to do that.



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 20, 2013, 05:22:47 pm
Economic development for aboriginals.

McCrimmon: Consultations, partnerships, resource sharing, common vision.

Cauchon: Empowerment. Tearing up Kelowna Accord, won't let Harper tear up social fabric.

Takach: Harper bad economist.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 20, 2013, 05:32:29 pm
Garneau/MHF/Trudeau on housing. Question: Horrible housing but at least I had somewhere to live. What creative ideas do you have on social housing?

Garneau: Need to do more, see it in my riding.

Trudeau: Need stronger economy through middle-class jobs, not just stats.


Garneau: Need compassion, change govt because it wants to get out of housing.

Trudeau: Right doesn't believe in sharing, left doesn't believe in sustainability. Need both.

MHF: There's an economic cost to these social problems.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Zioneer on January 21, 2013, 11:14:01 am
Is it just me, or does JT have no intellectual weight whatsoever? From what I've seen of him (admittedly little), he seems to be coasting on charisma and his father's image. Again, I have very little experience with Canadian politics and personalities, but Justin Trudeau seems to be a (charismatic and good at fundraising) lightweight.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 21, 2013, 01:16:47 pm
I'll put it this way. Is he a wonk? No. Is he dumb? No. Street smarts? You bet. Marc Garneau is quite literally a rocket scientist, but his political skills are somewhat different.

In terms of who "won": I'd agree with Ibbitson and Den Tandt. MHF or Garneau on points, but nothing changed.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/liberal-leadership-debate-stays-on-script/article7569800/

http://www.canada.com/Tepid%2BLiberal%2Bleadership%2Bdebate%2Bchange%2Banyone%2Bmind%2Babout%2Banything/7846728/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on January 21, 2013, 04:42:42 pm
Is it just me, or does JT have no intellectual weight whatsoever? From what I've seen of him (admittedly little), he seems to be coasting on charisma and his father's image. Again, I have very little experience with Canadian politics and personalities, but Justin Trudeau seems to be a (charismatic and good at fundraising) lightweight.

That is a good description of Justin. he clearly takes after his mother Margaret much more than his father...he just mouths a lot of vapid platitudes and tosses his hair a lot. 


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 31, 2013, 10:29:36 pm
Fundraising.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2013/01/trudeau-q4-fundraising-juggernaut-signals-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-liberal-leadership-race/

Saturday is a series of interviews. Halifax a town hall.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2013/01/31/liberals-opt-for-individual-tv-interviews-not-tv-debates-in-winnipeg-say-it%E2%80%99s/33522


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on February 02, 2013, 09:10:53 pm
Well, I'm voting for Martha. Because I can.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on February 03, 2013, 01:28:20 pm
Well, I'm voting for Martha. Because I can.

lol


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 07, 2013, 04:33:34 pm
Valeriote endorsed Trudeau today.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Hash on February 07, 2013, 04:55:22 pm
Yeah, I'm actually signed up to vote in this thing; but I'm not in love with any of the candidates. I have no clue who I'll actually vote for. Of course, I can't bring myself to care about this.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on February 07, 2013, 10:53:07 pm
Yeah, I'm actually signed up to vote in this thing; but I'm not in love with any of the candidates. I have no clue who I'll actually vote for. Of course, I can't bring myself to care about this.

Why not Trudeau? He's an awful pill to swallow, but he's your only hope.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on February 08, 2013, 09:42:53 am
Somehow I would think that Justin Trudeau would be exactly the kind of politician and person that would make Hash throw up.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 08, 2013, 09:46:33 am
Only outstanding endorsements left are Belanger and Brison.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2013/02/07/pol-trudeau-most-mp-support-leadership.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on February 08, 2013, 04:58:59 pm
Somehow I would think that Justin Trudeau would be exactly the kind of politician and person that would make Hash throw up.

Yes, but he has no choice if he wants to be a Liberal and wants the Liberals to win.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 09, 2013, 08:25:46 pm
Sgro has unofficially endorsed Garneau, Copps Trudeau. So that leaves Belanger and Brison.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: King of Kensington on February 10, 2013, 12:47:06 am
Garneau strikes me as another Ken Dryden. 

It seems to me that MHF seems to be doing pretty well in the debates and may be squeezing out Garneau in terms of carrying the flag of "blue Liberalism."


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 10, 2013, 09:12:59 am
In terms of voting intentions, no. Otherwise agreed. Dunno who'll come in second.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on February 10, 2013, 07:12:35 pm
RogueBeaver, do you actually like Trudeau?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 10, 2013, 07:30:10 pm
Yes, since '08, but I'm still voting Tory in '15.

On another note: Mississauga, Saturday, 1-3 for the next debate.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on February 10, 2013, 07:44:34 pm
Ah, damn. I should've grabbed a ticket. I'll be in Mississauga on Saturday for Reading Week. Dang it all.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 13, 2013, 10:57:22 am
Garneau took the gloves off today, taking dead aim at JT: dunno if this continues at the debates, doubt it helps him in the long run.

http://marcgarneau.ca/statement-130213/

Brison criticizes Garneau.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/national/Garneau+blasts+Trudeau+lack+coherent+vision+Liberal/7959100/story.html

Trudeau talks about his personal wealth.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Justin+Trudeau+inheritance+worth+million/7960615/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: King of Kensington on February 14, 2013, 06:51:01 pm
As much as I'm not a fan of JT, I have to say his candour and admission that he's extremely fortunate comes across well.   Still the name is a lot more valuable than the $1 million he inherited.  No way he would earn that much in speaking fees if he didn't have a famous name. 


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 14, 2013, 07:23:13 pm
Premunization against predictable attempts to define his image. Politically astute.

Now Garneau saying "I lead, you follow" on JT's Queens student debt speech. On PP promised to keep critiquing for the duration.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 16, 2013, 03:21:30 pm
Whoa, that was one heated debate. That Garneau-Trudeau exchange went as expected. Then there were shots at lawyers and tree businesses, Cauchon grabbing MHF's hand, JT putting his arm around Garneau, and finally this. MHF had an initial point, then... well let's just say she didn't do herself any favours. Garneau was correct when he called it "petty."

http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=866669&playlistId=1.1159734&binId=1.810401&playlistPageNum=1

She also insisted in the presser that she wasn't being personal. Plus the irony of a Bay Streeter slamming the class card on the table.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: King of Kensington on February 16, 2013, 10:41:51 pm
http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=866669&playlistId=1.1159734&binId=1.810401&playlistPageNum=1

Wow, if Justin can't handle MHF how is he going to take on Harper?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 16, 2013, 10:56:08 pm
Per Kady O'Malley, the segment was over but the moderator gave Coyne extra time. Walked off prematurely. The verbal response- pitch-perfect. Certainly didn't expect that sort of crap from MHF, whom I've always respected. For some reason none of the PPG Twitterers noted the irony of a Bay Street lawyer throwing class around.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 26, 2013, 11:39:03 am
Garneau has challenged JT to a 1-1 debate, which he has refused.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/02/25/keith-beardsley-trudeau-gains-in-rejecting-garneaus-debate-challenge/

Takach is the first dropout, endorsed Trudeau.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/takach-first-to-drop-out-of-liberal-race-endorses-trudeau-for-leader/article9043573/

Another Trudeau endorsee: Scott Brison.

http://www.brison.ca/newsshow.asp?int_id=81040



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Smid on February 26, 2013, 02:54:38 pm
Brison took his time. Any idea what he was playing at?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 27, 2013, 06:38:57 am
Brison took his time. Any idea what he was playing at?

Brison's on the right of the party. I imagine he was waiting until Trudeau's election appeared inevitable.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on February 27, 2013, 08:19:15 am
Brison took his time. Any idea what he was playing at?

Brison's on the right of the party. I imagine he was waiting until Trudeau's election appeared inevitable.

If that were the case, he should have endorsed him the second he announced his bid ;)


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 27, 2013, 12:45:33 pm
I think all candidates' endorsements are timed myself. In Brison's case, makes sense to do it just before the debate.

More endorsements incoming: BC Sen. Larry Campbell for Murray, NS Grit leader Stephen McNeil for Trudeau.

http://joycemurray.ca/newspages/200-release-senator-campbell

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/national/nova-scotia-liberal-leader-endorsing-justin-trudeau-in-federal-leadership-race-1.81464


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on February 27, 2013, 02:11:27 pm
Campbell: Makes sense; he's a former mayor of her city, and I think a former New Democrat, so he's probably pro merger.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 27, 2013, 02:45:47 pm
Murray interview. She just got Bruce Hyer's quasi-endorsement, per Twitter.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/national/Liberal+leadership+Joyce+Murray+wind+back/8023984/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on February 27, 2013, 03:06:22 pm
What about the other Campbell? - GORDON Campbell. He was Joyce Murray's idol and mentor. She was a slavishly loyal senior cabinet minister in his fanatically rightwing government. Surely he would be 100% supportive of her plan to work with the NDP against the Conservatives...on second thought


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 27, 2013, 03:22:40 pm
Would be kinda hard for a sitting HC to make a political endorsement. :P


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on February 27, 2013, 04:01:04 pm
Would be kinda hard for a sitting HC to make a political endorsement. :P

HC?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 27, 2013, 04:11:53 pm
High Commissioner. Joyce Murray's ideological backflip is kinda interesting though.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on February 27, 2013, 04:18:39 pm
High Commissioner. Joyce Murray's ideological backflip is kinda interesting though.

Oh.
It's a new trend to appoint former provincial Premiers to important ambassador offices?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 03, 2013, 02:08:00 pm
So the debate's a wrap. Only interesting exchanges were JT-Murray on coop and JT-Garneau on the definition of "negative campaigning" (puhleeze) and plans to help the middle class. Plus MHF flipping on Northern Gateway.

Team Trudeau has raised $1 million, signed up 150k supporters and has 10k personnel.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201303/03/01-4627375-trudeau-dispose-dune-imposante-machine-de-campagne.php


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 13, 2013, 09:03:43 am
LPC is considering whether to extend supporter registration after it belly-flopped. Reports that people didn't provide email addresses, etc. Next time stick with members or better yet, a delegated convention.

Even bigger news: Garneau is withdrawing today because he concluded it was hopeless. I thought there was something suspicious after his "loyal soldier" a couple of weeks ago.

http://www.globalnews.ca/canada/canadian+press+newsalert+marc+garneau+quitting+bid+to+lead+federal+liberals/6442827286/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2013, 09:05:50 am
I can attest to their management of the 'supporters' shazam being horrible. I registered to vote as one, but never really got serious confirmation (yet?) and when I threw them an email to ask about what was going on with that stuff, they never got back to me. If their communication with other supporters is that messy, no wonder it turned out to be a disaster. The LPC continues to be horribly incompetent nincompoops.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 13, 2013, 09:23:08 am
Speaking of loyal soldiers, Garneau will be endorsing Trudeau. Craig Oliver says that more will follow... yeah, this is 2003/9 all over again. He might also have not been certain of coming in third, or at least some are speculating.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 13, 2013, 10:20:51 am
Said that he's eager to help on policy front. Discussed an internal of 6000 Liberals showing 72% JT, 15% Garneau, 7% Murray, 5% MHF. Was done last week.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on March 13, 2013, 11:05:06 am
Better yet, a delegated convention.


Why do you hate democracy?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 13, 2013, 11:15:37 am
CBC reporting that the supporter extension has been granted.

Hatman: Either/or. This supporter thing was just stupid. Good on paper, bad in practice. OMOV is fine if a) restricted to members b) works.

The book's being closed on this race already.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/03/13/and-so-the-justin-trudeau-years-begin/

http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/03/13/marc-garneau-the-spaceman-who-fell-to-earth/

http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/03/13/how-justin-trudeau-is-winning-quebec/

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/03/13/marc_garneaus_withdrawal_from_liberal_leadership_race_saves_himself_humiliation_hbert.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 13, 2013, 04:20:23 pm
Can anyone tell this uninformed Brit what's so great about Justin Trudeau?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Smid on March 13, 2013, 05:21:45 pm
Can anyone tell this uninformed Brit what's so great about Justin Trudeau?

As a Brit, you should understand royalty and someone being born into a role.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on March 13, 2013, 06:36:08 pm
Can anyone tell this uninformed Brit what's so great about Justin Trudeau?

What was so great about George W. Bush?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2013, 06:42:53 pm
Apparently the LPC got moving on the supporter/registration shazam, they confirmed my registration just now. The email reports that, as of now, 100,015/294,002 supporters are registered to vote. The deadline is extended to March 21.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 13, 2013, 07:07:21 pm
Only Murray objected.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DL on March 13, 2013, 10:15:59 pm
Can anyone tell this uninformed Brit what's so great about Justin Trudeau?
NOTHING...he's just got a famous father


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: adma on March 17, 2013, 08:39:07 pm
Think of him as somewhere btw/ JFK Jr and Dubyah.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 21, 2013, 12:43:27 pm
Bertschi dropped out. Hsu has switched his support from Garneau to Murray for ideological and coop reasons. The supposedly neutral Dion is also supporting Murray.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeau-continues-to-dominate-liberal-leadership-race-as-bertschi-drops-out/article10054054/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 22, 2013, 08:37:58 pm
Only 40% of supporters registered, voting turnout will also probably be down. Dunno about membership though.

On the $$$ front, Justin's now at $1.3 million.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/national/Justin+Trudeau+money+magnet+rakes+million+Grit+leadership/8140700/story.html

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/trudeau-compiling-war-chest-to-fight-tory-attack-ads/article10254429/


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 23, 2013, 08:42:49 pm
Debate roundup. Key moments: Murray accusing MHF of being a petrool (1:32-35) and Justin's closing statement (2:26-29).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=HE40ggiVTBU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=DE8RBtAEel8

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/03/23/candidates_go_headtohead_in_final_debate_of_liberal_leadership_race.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on March 27, 2013, 03:19:12 pm
I wish this were true: http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2013/03/26/liberal_leadership_candidate_joyce_murray_our_numbers_are_higher_than_anyone_elses.html



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 27, 2013, 03:33:39 pm
I didn't figure you, or any Dipper here, for a coop enthusiast. :P I do think she'll be the runner-up though.

On other notes, MHF is getting publicly criticized by Sgro, Bennett and Fry for being a self-promoting showboat who's not helping the Grit cause with her sharp attacks on Murray and JT. Plus calling people cowards for voting the exact same way she did on certain occasions. Scott Tribe agrees with them, as do I. Though dunno why her anti-supply management stance is such a BFD. Big Loaf and all that.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2013/03/26/liberal-mps-criticize-hall-findlay%E2%80%99s-lengthy-attack-on-murray%E2%80%99s/34158#.UVIy694kDbg.twitter


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on March 27, 2013, 03:46:22 pm
As a dipper, I'm not backing her for her policies. She could be the next coming of Hitler, and I would back her if she had a shot at beating Trudeau. Trudeau is the only hope the Liberals have of winning or even finishing 2nd in the next election.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 28, 2013, 07:23:29 pm
Grits should not be amused with their voter numbers, but 3/4 of them are supporters. Milliken has endorsed Murray, who is also doing quite well w/$$$ in this week's support. Can't see how she doesn't place second.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/could-this-be-justin-trudeau-s-top-challenger-1.1215703


Exit interview with Rae.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Analysis+does+gently+into+that+good+night/8166120/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 01, 2013, 03:08:47 pm
Members of FairVote are resigning over use of their e-mail list to solicit illegal funds for Murray. And no, this isn't an April Fool's joke.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on April 11, 2013, 01:35:23 pm
The press is having a huge orgasm over the Liberals getting more votes in their leadership contest than the NDP. (Well, it makes sense, considering how established the Liberals are... their support may be a mile wide, but an inch deep... or does that better describe the NDP?)

Here are their eligible voters by province:

B.C.: 16,098

Alberta: 9,302

Saskatchewan: 2,700

Manitoba: 4,444

Ontario: 59,474

Quebec: 14,577

New Brunswick: 6,889

Nova Scotia: 7,425

P.E.I: 2,611

Newfoundland and Labrador: 3,149

Nunavut: 56

Northwest Territories: 176

Yukon: 223

Compare to the NDP membership before the convention:

Alberta   9800
British Columbia   39859
Manitoba   11991
New Brunswick   946
Newfoundland and Labrador   974
Nova Scotia   3904
Northwest Territories   124
Nunavut   24
Ontario   36965
Prince Edward Island   262
Quebec   13987
Saskatchewan   11243
Yukon   747



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 11, 2013, 01:37:53 pm
Meanwhile Justin is saying "steady as he goes" on the economy. No tax changes, dovish on the deficit. Not that there's much daylight between Flaherty and Brison anyways.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201304/11/01-4639753-justin-trudeau-ramener-les-quebecois-vers-la-gouvernance-du-pays.php


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on April 13, 2013, 11:57:20 pm
Today's the day!

Here's my cartographic analysis: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/04/federal-liberal-leadership-maps.html



Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 04:27:15 pm
Results 30-40 minutes from now. Most expect 60-80% for JT on the ballot.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on April 14, 2013, 05:28:27 pm
Still no results, and they just missed the 6PM news. Hard to believe there are the natural governing party, they look amateur and unorganized, now.

It's not with that kind of errors they will beat Harper and Mulcair.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 05:32:55 pm
These things often run late.

Anyhoo, here it goes.

Trudeau with 80.1%.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on April 14, 2013, 05:37:01 pm
These things often run late.

Anyhoo, here it goes.

Trudeau with 80.1%.

Indeed, I'm quite aware (NDP is the same). The logical thing would have been to begin the event at 4:30 or 4:00, instead of 5PM, then.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2013, 05:53:16 pm
Era of hyphenated Liberals ends right here, right now, tonight.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: trebor204 on April 14, 2013, 05:55:31 pm
Riding by riding results are up.


https://www.vote2013leadership.ca/results/

Some riding totals (You have to click through each riding for their results)

Trudeau in his home riding of Papineau 93.2%
Joyce Murray in her riding of Van-Quadra - 55.6%, Trudeau 35.9%
Martha Hall Finlay in her former riding of Willowdale - 27.0%, Trudeau 58.0%


Joyce also wins Vancouver - Kingsway with 49.3%, Trudeau 41%


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on April 14, 2013, 06:04:05 pm
What is an hyphenated Liberal?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Holmes on April 14, 2013, 06:41:16 pm
Future Prime Minister Beautiful Face and Hair.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: MaxQue on April 14, 2013, 07:41:42 pm
Future Prime Minister Beautiful Face and Hair.

Again, total lack of taste.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on April 14, 2013, 08:31:32 pm
So Trudeau won all but 2 ridings? Rather boring. Will make a map anyways.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on April 14, 2013, 08:57:45 pm
Murray won Van Island N, BC S. Interior and Van East as well.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on April 14, 2013, 11:42:30 pm
Final map posted: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/04/liberal-leadership-race-results-map.html


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 15, 2013, 11:25:13 am
I'm watching the speech from yesterday, and I can't quite pick up on the intonation in French, so i'm not sure if it's his natural way, but why does Justin sound so patronising (even for a politician) when he speaks English?


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 15, 2013, 12:48:27 pm
I'm watching the speech from yesterday, and I can't quite pick up on the intonation in French, so i'm not sure if it's his natural way, but why does Justin sound so patronising (even for a politician) when he speaks English?

Because his last name is Trudeau :\


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Smid on April 18, 2013, 02:05:00 am
2013 Liberal Party of Canada Leadership Election - Leading Non-Trudeau Candidate
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2482_18_04_13_1_57_05.png)


Not necessarily entirely relevant in all ridings... for example, in Nunavut, the two leading non-Trudeau candidates tied with two votes each...

Still, it gives an idea of some regional patterns. I didn't use "Runner Up" for the map for that reason, since this way it shows the regional strength of Murray in BC by highlighting ridings won and runner-up, whereas a purely runner up map would have had Trudeau breaking up that wall-to-wall green. I haven't shaded percentages, I hope no one minds.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on April 18, 2013, 06:56:46 am
MHF's NB endorsements helped her out there, as did perhaps her Alta endorsements.

What's with that one Cauchon riding in Brampton? Doesn't make any sense.


Title: Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013
Post by: Smid on April 18, 2013, 06:52:29 pm
JT got over 90% in all those Brampton ridings, I think. I'll check the results to make sure it isn't a mistake in my spreadsheet (I was a little surprised when making the map), but I think it's one of those "no one else got more than five votes" type of a second place.

Edit: JT "only" got 85.67335% in Brampton-Springdale. No error on the above map, though. My calculations are that the votes work out as:
Justin Trudeau - 299
Joyce Murray - 15
Martha Hall Findlay - 14
Martin Cauchon - 18
Deborah Coyne - 3
Karen McCrimmon - 0

In other words, very close for second place, and not sure why Cauchon did so well (in comparison to neighbouring ridings).

Neighbourhing ridings...
B-G-M (far more votes cast), JM 10, MHF 6, MC 6, DC 8, KM 6
BW (fewer votes than BGM, but more than BS), JM 15, MHF 16, MC 1, DC 1, KM 15