Talk Elections

Romney, Bachmann, Cain Lead The Pack Among GOP Primary Voters

Romney:33%
Bachmann:19%
Cain:10%
Gingrich:09%
Paul:07%
Pawlenty:06%
Santorum:06%
Huntsman:02%

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/romney_bachmann_cain_lead_the_pack_among_gop_primary_voters)

I think of all the polls this is the only one done after the CNN debate, which shows that Bachmann got a nice bump, like Cain did with the first debate. I think more of Cain's support will go to Michelle and it could be that she because the new Huckabee.

I think when we compare this with the new PPP poll that was conducted before the debate, Bachmann and Romney gained almost exclusively from Cain and Pawlenty, who had not really good debate performances.

Santorum also had a monumental debate bounce (considering 0/1% was the norm for him).

The fact that the field can swing so rapidly on one debate shows how weak it is.  Cain's 20% in PPP was a steady buildup on his first debate FOX win.

One thing I can say for sure is that this won't be a three way race after Iowa.  Cain/Bachmann/Gingrich/Santorum support is all one big block that is just waiting to dump all of its support to whoever comes out of it.  They have no bases.

This of course great news for Obama as Romney can't win a two-way race in the primary IMO.

Uh, can we do something about that link stretching the page?

I think this is the first post-debate poll we've seen, and it obviously has a very strong showing for Bachmann.  Of course, Palin is not included in the matchup, whereas she is usually included in other national primary polls, so that has to be taken into account.  The NBC/WSJ poll seemed to suggest that dropping Palin from the list tends to help Bachmann quite a bit.

It'll be interesting to see whether Bachmann's showing here is replicated by other polls.  I'd like to see a poll of Iowa soon, to see how she's doing there.

Yepp.

My prediction: Primary comes down to Romney and Bachmann. Romney wins.

From four years ago:

link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_2008_presidential_candidates)

National poll (Rasmussen June 11-14):

Thompson 28%
Giuliani 27%
McCain 10%
Romney 10%
Huckabee 2%
Brownback 2%

link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008)

Iowa poll (Mason Dixon June 16)

Romney 25%
Thompson 17%
Giuliani 15%
Huckabee 7%
Brownback 6%
McCain 6%

New Hampshire poll (Mason Dixon June 4-7)

Romney 27%
McCain 16%
Giuliani 15%
Thompson 12%
Huckabee 5%

South Carolina (Mason Dixon June 13-15)

Thompson 25%
Giuliani 21%
Romney 11%
McCain 7%
Huckabee 5%

Moral of the story:

Romney is in much better shape now than 4 years ago.

Alternative moral of the story: Whoever is winning now will end up losing.  :P

Actual moral of the story is that Cain and Huntsman will end up battling for the nomination.

IMHO, Cain is Thompson (won't win anything) and Huntsman is Brownback (will get less than anything)

Yes, but the evidence clearly shows:

Cain has 10%, McCain had 10% at this time
Huntsman has 2%, Huckabee had 2% at this time

This logic is unbeatable.

Which candidate from 2008 is Romney a parallel of?

The Bachmann number is a little hard to believe. We shall have to see if it is backed up by other post-debate polls.

Ron Paul