Talk Elections

2012 Presidential Election in New Mexico

Obama 52%    Bachmann  37%
Obama 52%    Cain           36%
Obama 56%    Palin          36%
Obama 51%    Pawlenty   36%
Obama 49%    Romney     43%
Obama 46%    Johnson     43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_06291118.pdf

No shock. New Mexico is Lean D at this point.

Sounds about right for this point in the campaign.  Expect it will close considerably (for some) once name recognition goes up.

Now showing Michelle Bachmann!

Obama vs. Romney

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Obama vs. Bachmann



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Obama vs. Palin

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Obama vs. Pawlenty

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Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

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DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)
Ron Paul -- Texas (but I will show him in Oklahoma for this purpose
Johnson -- New Mexico

In view of the execrable performance of  Rick Perry in a matchup poll against President Obama in Texas, a firm R state, I am not going to bother showing a map for him. I am going to add Michelle Bachmann instead.  She over Cain? Michelle Bachmann has legislative experience.  

Now, now, pbrower, not too hard.  It might start to chafe.

Obama vs. Romney:

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FTR, Bachmann leads Obama in Texas.

That's what you think. Once you factor in air hubs, the age wave, and other factors pbrower likes to spontaneously create, Obama would defeat Bachmann by double-digits in Texas, easily.

Correction made.

More significant is that Michelle Bachmann appears to be part of the lunatic fringe, which could be big trouble for her campaign. Goldwater and McGovern both lost big because their opponents were able to characterize the eventual loser of a landslide election as reckless extremists out of touch with America. In both cases that had nothing to do with air hubs and the age wave.  I think that the polls for Texas already show some effect of the age wave that I have postulated. The Republicans have little to offer to low-paid young working people who have yet to buy into the "culture wars". 

Also more significant is that Texans seem to be tiring of Rick Perry as Governor. 

Can President Obama win Texas? Sure -- if the Republicans nominate a weak or extremist nominee, if President Obama appears in Texas a few times to aid the Democratic nominee for the Senate and some Democrats running for House seats.   Texas looks like the difference between about 410 and 450 electoral votes, which means that it will be one of his weakest states in an Eisenhower-scale landslide and just out of reach in an election similar to those that Democrats have won beginning in 1992, and far out of reach in a 50-50 split of electoral and popular votes.

But this is the point -- Texas is the difference between President Obama winning 410 and 450 electoral votes. Have I said that he would win 410 electoral votes? He has to hold Indiana, pick up Missouri, Georgia, Arizona, and probably South Carolina before he wins Texas.