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General Politics => U.S. General Discussion => Topic started by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2011, 03:10:22 am



Title: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2011, 03:10:22 am
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor John Hickenlooper’s job performance?

Approve................. 54%
Disapprove............ 24%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Udall's job performance?

Approve .................45%
Disapprove.............34%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Michael Bennet's job performance?

Approve .................44%
Disapprove.............36%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Buck?

Favorable........................................................ 25%
Unfavorable .................................................... 46%

If you could do last fall’s election for US Senate over again, would you vote for Democrat Michael Bennet or Republican Ken Buck?

Michael Bennet ............................................... 55%
Ken Buck ........................................................ 38%

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 45%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry .................................................40%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry ......................31%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ...................27%

If there was an election for Congress today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?

Democratic candidate ..................................... 45%
Republican candidate ..................................... 40%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party?

Favorable........................................................ 38%
Unfavorable .................................................... 49%

Do you think prostitution should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 32%
Illegal .............................................................. 56%

Do you think marijuana usage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 51%
Illegal .............................................................. 38%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott McInnis?

Favorable........................................................ 14%
Unfavorable .................................................... 31%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Tancredo?

Favorable........................................................ 30%
Unfavorable .................................................... 43%

Would you support or oppose raising the income tax in Colorado from 4.63% to 5% and the sales tax from 2.9% to 3.0% in order to increase funding for public education?

Support ........................................................... 45%
Oppose ........................................................... 47%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_0811925.pdf


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on August 12, 2011, 03:53:23 am
It really interesting to look at the PPP opinion polls.  Since they have become the in-house pollster for the Daily Kos they have pretty consistently produced poll results more favorable to the Democrats than most other polls.

Take for example their recent poll of Colorado voters.  (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_08101118.pdf)

First, let’s contrast the composition of their respondents with the results of the 2008 Exit poll for Colorado. (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=COP00p1)

 Ideology
                                        PPP          Edison
Liberal                            35 %          17 %
Moderate                       27              46
Conservative                 39              36

Second, let’s compare their partisan identification compared to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/148949/Hawaii-Democratic-Utah-Republican-State.aspx#)

                                        PPP          Gallup
Democrat                        41 %          42 %
Republican                      33              43

Looks like PPP is a R2K reprise.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2011, 03:55:16 am
Here is a gay marriage map of recent state polling by PPP and others:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=0;8;3&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;4&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=0;8;5&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;4&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

Note:

The NY polls are from Quinnipiac and Marist, both of them showed support for gay marriage above 50%.

The CT poll is from Quinnipiac.

The MD poll is from the Washington Post.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2011, 03:59:12 am
It really interesting to look at the PPP opinion polls.  Since they have become the in-house pollster for the Daily Kos they have pretty consistently produced poll results more favorable to the Democrats than most other polls.

Take for example their recent poll of Colorado voters.  (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_08101118.pdf)

First, let’s contrast the composition of their respondents with the results of the 2008 Exit poll for Colorado. (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=COP00p1)

 Ideology
                                        PPP          Edison
Liberal                            35 %          17 %
Moderate                       27              46
Conservative                 39              36

Second, let’s compare their partisan identification compared to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/148949/Hawaii-Democratic-Utah-Republican-State.aspx#)

                                        PPP          Gallup
Democrat                        41 %          42 %
Republican                      33              43

Looks like PPP is a R2K reprise.

The results of PPP contradict you. They are one of the best out there and got almost all elections right so far this cycle and also within the MoE.

You shouldn't use Gallup to prove variations in samples either, because Gallup wasn't really good in 2008 and they collected the party ID over half a year.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on August 12, 2011, 04:12:06 am
It really interesting to look at the PPP opinion polls.  Since they have become the in-house pollster for the Daily Kos they have pretty consistently produced poll results more favorable to the Democrats than most other polls.

Take for example their recent poll of Colorado voters.  (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_08101118.pdf)

First, let’s contrast the composition of their respondents with the results of the 2008 Exit poll for Colorado. (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=COP00p1)

 Ideology
                                        PPP          Edison
Liberal                            35 %          17 %
Moderate                       27              46
Conservative                 39              36

Second, let’s compare their partisan identification compared to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/148949/Hawaii-Democratic-Utah-Republican-State.aspx#)

                                        PPP          Gallup
Democrat                        41 %          42 %
Republican                      33              43

Looks like PPP is a R2K reprise.

The results of PPP contradict you. They are one of the best out there and got almost all elections right so far this cycle and also within the MoE.

You shouldn't use Gallup to prove variations in samples either, because Gallup wasn't really good in 2008 and they collected the party ID over half a year.

Sorry, but, the further out PPP is from elections, the more left-leaning their polls are.

Zogby has had similiar results, having weird polls far out, and becoming more rational near elections.

Methodological changes do matter.

Next, you can look at the exit polls for partisan identification (favors Republicans in Colorado) ,since you seem to dislike Gallup and be blind to PPP's faults.

Oh, BTW, Gallup and Edison largely agree on the ideological makeup of Colorado voters, while PPP would have us believe they are far more liberal.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/122333/political-ideology-conservative-label-prevails-south


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2011, 04:22:13 am
It really interesting to look at the PPP opinion polls.  Since they have become the in-house pollster for the Daily Kos they have pretty consistently produced poll results more favorable to the Democrats than most other polls.

Take for example their recent poll of Colorado voters.  (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_08101118.pdf)

First, let’s contrast the composition of their respondents with the results of the 2008 Exit poll for Colorado. (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=COP00p1)

 Ideology
                                        PPP          Edison
Liberal                            35 %          17 %
Moderate                       27              46
Conservative                 39              36

Second, let’s compare their partisan identification compared to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/148949/Hawaii-Democratic-Utah-Republican-State.aspx#)

                                        PPP          Gallup
Democrat                        41 %          42 %
Republican                      33              43

Looks like PPP is a R2K reprise.

The results of PPP contradict you. They are one of the best out there and got almost all elections right so far this cycle and also within the MoE.

You shouldn't use Gallup to prove variations in samples either, because Gallup wasn't really good in 2008 and they collected the party ID over half a year.

Sorry, but, the further out PPP is from elections, the more left-leaning their polls are.

Zogby has had similiar results, having weird polls far out, and becoming more rational near elections.

Methodological changes do matter.

Next, you can look at the exit polls for partisan identification (favors Republicans in Colorado) ,since you seem to dislike Gallup and be blind to PPP's faults.

No word about Rasmussen ?

Rasmussen also used to be much more Republican early on and then moderate their results closer to election day.

Also, PPP doesn't weight according to party ID, but rely on self-ID (of what the poll respondents actually say).

And because polls are just snapshots in time, who can tell what the turnout might look like right now ?

Example: The current voter registration in Colorado is something like 33% R, 32% D, 35% I.

If the election were to be held today, it could be that of the 33% Republicans only 70% turn out and of Democrats 80% and of Independents lets say 60%.

That CHANGES the composition of the sample so that there are actually MORE Democrats in there than Republicans, even though they have a slight registration advantage.

Who tells us that in Colorado it could not be the case that Democrats are more likely to participate in a phone poll or actually turn out in greater numbers than Republicans ? The Colorado GOP isn't in really good shape either. So PPP's result for this moment could be accurate.

BTW, Democrats have recently caught up to Republicans in Colorado when it comes to registration. The gap was much larger 8 years or 4 years ago and depending on how effective the registration drives are next year, I could see Democrats overtaking Republicans ahead of the 2012 elections.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on August 12, 2011, 04:31:44 am
ROTFLMAO!

Democrats having a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado!?!

Republicans really blew last year's Governor and Senate races in Colorado.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2011, 04:51:06 am
ROTFLMAO!

Democrats having a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado!?!

Republicans really blew last year's Governor and Senate races in Colorado.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But there´s also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on August 12, 2011, 05:11:39 am
ROTFLMAO!

Democrats having a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado!?!

Republicans really blew last year's Governor and Senate races in Colorado.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But there´s also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?

Well, lets look your assertions.

First, occasionally there are elections when Democrat turnout is higher than Republican turnout, but, those elections are rare (roughly 1 out of 10).

Second, it is true that PPP polls do have unusually high sample size MoE (due to small samples), but that would NOT explain the partisan sample composition distribution.  In the PPP poll you cited, Democrats have an 8 point advantage, whereas in the Edison and Gallup polls (as well as voter registration you cited), they have a 1 point disadvantage.  That's a 9 point spread, which is NOT explained by sample size MoE!

Third, you ignored the other point about the PPP poll being heavily laden with liberals, both compared to the Edison and Gallup polls.

Finally, to me it makes no difference the race/ethnicity of voters as a vote is a vote.  So, would you be pleased to lose two white votes to gain one "minority" vote? 


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2011, 10:03:37 am
ROTFLMAO!

Democrats having a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado!?!

Republicans really blew last year's Governor and Senate races in Colorado.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But there´s also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?

Well, lets look your assertions.

First, occasionally there are elections when Democrat turnout is higher than Republican turnout, but, those elections are rare (roughly 1 out of 10).

Second, it is true that PPP polls do have unusually high sample size MoE (due to small samples), but that would NOT explain the partisan sample composition distribution.  In the PPP poll you cited, Democrats have an 8 point advantage, whereas in the Edison and Gallup polls (as well as voter registration you cited), they have a 1 point disadvantage.  That's a 9 point spread, which is NOT explained by sample size MoE!

Third, you ignored the other point about the PPP poll being heavily laden with liberals, both compared to the Edison and Gallup polls.

Finally, to me it makes no difference the race/ethnicity of voters as a vote is a vote.  So, would you be pleased to lose two white votes to gain one "minority" vote? 

Colorado is trending Democratic according to the exit polls:

2004 exit poll: R+9
2008 exit poll: R+1
2010 exit poll: D+5/6

Besides that you don't seem to understand what I´m trying to say.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on August 12, 2011, 10:39:05 am
Wow those numbers for marijuana usage are quite impressive. Might want to try a redo of that 2006 referendum.

Those prostitution numbers aren't bad either with the word "prostitution" in there, since for too many that makes them think of also things like pimping and whatnot, I bet you could get a majority saying legal if the question was "Do you think the exchanging of money for sexual services should be legal or illegal?"


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: opebo on August 12, 2011, 01:49:48 pm
One wonders what the prostitution numbers would be had the innovation of female suffrage not been imposed.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Mechaman on August 12, 2011, 02:00:36 pm
Wow those numbers for marijuana usage are quite impressive. Might want to try a redo of that 2006 referendum.

Those prostitution numbers aren't bad either with the word "prostitution" in there, since for too many that makes them think of also things like pimping and whatnot, I bet you could get a majority saying legal if the question was "Do you think the exchanging of money for sexual services should be legal or illegal?"

Ya'think?

You know it's gotta be pretty bad for the Colorado GOP if polls have to include a question about prostitution.

Just saying.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on August 12, 2011, 03:19:46 pm
Awesome CO numbers for marijuana legalization. Nevada has them beat on prostitution though.

Here is a gay marriage map of recent state polling by PPP and others:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=0;8;3&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;4&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=0;8;5&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;4&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

Note:

The NY polls are from Quinnipiac and Marist, both of them showed support for gay marriage above 50%.

The CT poll is from Quinnipiac.

The MD poll is from the Washington Post.

Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

Looks like gay marriage is going to come in from the coasts.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Mechaman on August 12, 2011, 03:22:20 pm
Awesome CO numbers for marijuana legalization. Nevada has them beat on prostitution though.

Here is a gay marriage map of recent state polling by PPP and others:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=0;8;3&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;4&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=0;8;5&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;4&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

Note:

The NY polls are from Quinnipiac and Marist, both of them showed support for gay marriage above 50%.

The CT poll is from Quinnipiac.

The MD poll is from the Washington Post.

Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

Looks like gay marriage is going to come in from the coasts.

I'm calling it:

There will be a court ruling out in favor of gay marriage no later than 2025.

Once stuff like this gains momentum it seldom takes more than 20 years.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on August 12, 2011, 03:28:24 pm
Awesome CO numbers for marijuana legalization. Nevada has them beat on prostitution though.

Here is a gay marriage map of recent state polling by PPP and others:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=0;8;3&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;4&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=0;8;5&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;4&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

Note:

The NY polls are from Quinnipiac and Marist, both of them showed support for gay marriage above 50%.

The CT poll is from Quinnipiac.

The MD poll is from the Washington Post.

Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

Looks like gay marriage is going to come in from the coasts.

I'm calling it:

There will be a court ruling out in favor of gay marriage no later than 2025.

Once stuff like this gains momentum it seldom takes more than 20 years.

Before 2025? Try before 2015. There's already a federal case: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perry_v._Schwarzenegger


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Holmes on August 12, 2011, 10:47:05 pm
That case will drag on until 2025.

My favourite part of polling threads are those that quickly jump onto the cross tabs - "TOO MUCH DEMOCRATS AND LIBERALS." lol like, who gives a frick.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on August 14, 2011, 02:20:39 am
Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

PPP did a poll for the Delaware Right to Marry PAC in Feb. 2011. The results were:

48% Favor
47% Oppose

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2011/02/09/large-plurality-of-delaware-supports-marriage-equality


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on August 14, 2011, 03:47:48 am
Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

PPP did a poll for the Delaware Right to Marry PAC in Feb. 2011. The results were:

48% Favor
47% Oppose

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2011/02/09/large-plurality-of-delaware-supports-marriage-equality

Nice. Time to update the map? I think Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin are going to be the next states supporting it. Hawaii might already support it too.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on August 14, 2011, 03:56:16 am
Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

PPP did a poll for the Delaware Right to Marry PAC in Feb. 2011. The results were:

48% Favor
47% Oppose

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2011/02/09/large-plurality-of-delaware-supports-marriage-equality

Nice. Time to update the map? I think Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin are going to be the next states supporting it. Hawaii might already support it too.

I don't use polls for "Pro Gay Marriage" or "Pro Man/Woman Marriage" groups in my map.

But you can help me look for other polls in states that I have not coloured so far.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on August 14, 2011, 08:51:30 am
Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

PPP did a poll for the Delaware Right to Marry PAC in Feb. 2011. The results were:

48% Favor
47% Oppose

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2011/02/09/large-plurality-of-delaware-supports-marriage-equality

Nice. Time to update the map? I think Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin are going to be the next states supporting it. Hawaii might already support it too.

I don't use polls for "Pro Gay Marriage" or "Pro Man/Woman Marriage" groups in my map.

But you can help me look for other polls in states that I have not coloured so far.

That is a good idea. I think you have most of those types of polls covered but I'll post a reply in one of these threads if I catch a new one.

P.S. - Nice work on it. I love state by state maps for anything (gay marriage, governor opinion polling, etc)


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on August 15, 2011, 11:06:07 am
ROTFLMAO!

Democrats having a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado!?!

Republicans really blew last year's Governor and Senate races in Colorado.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But there´s also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?

Well, lets look your assertions.

First, occasionally there are elections when Democrat turnout is higher than Republican turnout, but, those elections are rare (roughly 1 out of 10).

Second, it is true that PPP polls do have unusually high sample size MoE (due to small samples), but that would NOT explain the partisan sample composition distribution.  In the PPP poll you cited, Democrats have an 8 point advantage, whereas in the Edison and Gallup polls (as well as voter registration you cited), they have a 1 point disadvantage.  That's a 9 point spread, which is NOT explained by sample size MoE!

Third, you ignored the other point about the PPP poll being heavily laden with liberals, both compared to the Edison and Gallup polls.

Finally, to me it makes no difference the race/ethnicity of voters as a vote is a vote.  So, would you be pleased to lose two white votes to gain one "minority" vote? 

Colorado is trending Democratic according to the exit polls:

2004 exit poll: R+9
2008 exit poll: R+1
2010 exit poll: D+5/6

Besides that you don't seem to understand what I´m trying to say.

First, would you please be so good as to provide the link for your 2010 exit poll?

From what I can see, the Republican U.S. House of Representatioves candidates polled approximately 50% of the vote and the Democrat candidates approximately 45% in 2010 in Colorado.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on August 15, 2011, 11:50:44 am
That's still slightly more Democratic than the country as a whole (51.6R/44.8D).


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on August 15, 2011, 11:56:32 am
That's still slightly more Democratic than the country as a whole (51.6R/44.8D).

That's primarily because of third party participation in Colorado:

Party                         Percentage
                            Colorado     Nation
Democrat              45.43          44.76
Republican            50.14          51.50
Libertarian              2.20            1.24
Constitutional         1.56            0.29
Green                      0.17           0.30
Independent           0.51           0.96

First, there was only one Green party candidate on the congressional ballot, which minimally helped the Democrats in Colorado.

Second, there was only one Independent had a much smaller percentage of the vote in Colorado than nationwide, which also slighly helped the percentage for the Democrats.

Third, both the Libertarian and Constitutional party congressional candidates did significantly better in Colorado than nationwide.  This hurt Republican congressional percentage s in Colorado to some small extent.

So, no, Colorado is not leaning toward the Democrats based on this data.

It must be noted that the Colorado Republican party needs to get its house in order (exterminate the McCainiacs).


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Torie on August 15, 2011, 12:46:58 pm
Quote
It must be noted that the Colorado Republican party needs to get its house in order (exterminate the McCainiacs).

How will that get the Pubbie numbers up in Colorado again?


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on August 15, 2011, 12:52:44 pm
Quote
It must be noted that the Colorado Republican party needs to get its house in order (exterminate the McCainiacs).

How will that get the Pubbie numbers up in Colorado again?

If you check the opinion polls, the voters are very irate that the Republicans are rolling over for the Democrats rather than seeking reduction in the scope and scale of the federal budget.

McCain and his acolytes are incessantly trying to "reach across the aisle" to try to implement the liberal Democrat agenda.

Now, if voters believed the Republicans would fight to implement the ideas they say they want (when seeking election), rather than compromising to implement the liberal Democrat agenda, the voters would be more likely to support them.

Why elect a second-rater (RINO) to do what a liberals Democrat will do?



Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Torie on August 15, 2011, 12:58:15 pm
Yes, that was the strategy Barry Goldwater followed in 1964. Maybe you were his campaign manager, and just put down roots thereafter.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on August 15, 2011, 01:42:44 pm
First, would you please be so good as to provide the link for your 2010 exit poll?

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#COS01p1

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=COG00p1


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on August 15, 2011, 02:58:29 pm
I'm calling it:

There will be a court ruling out in favor of gay marriage no later than 2025.

Once stuff like this gains momentum it seldom takes more than 20 years.

The way gay marriage has been making gains, I'd be surprised if it took more than 10.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on August 15, 2011, 08:01:48 pm
First, would you please be so good as to provide the link for your 2010 exit poll?

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#COS01p1

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=COG00p1

Thank you.

That's what I thought.

Neither link is to the House races.

In the Governor's race in 2010, the Constitution party candidate outpolled the Republican party nominee.

In the Senate race in 2010, the Republicans nominated a conservative, so the McCainiacs refused to vote in that election.

In short, in those two statewide races in 2010 there was a really bizarre result.

Do you really believe those where typical?!?


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Holmes on August 15, 2011, 08:04:08 pm
In the Senate race in 2010, the Republicans nominatd a conservatives, so the McCainiacs refused to vote in that election.

What percent of the Colorado electorate are McCainiacs? Do they have much sway in statewide elections? How much voted for Bennet over Buck? Please cite!


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on August 15, 2011, 08:15:11 pm
In the Senate race in 2010, the Republicans nominatd a conservatives, so the McCainiacs refused to vote in that election.

What percent of the Colorado electorate are McCainiacs? Do they have much sway in statewide elections? How much voted for Bennet over Buck? Please cite!

They are a relatively small percentage of the voters in Republican party, given their repeated defeats in primaries there.

However, the Democrat Senator was elected (he had been appointed to the office) with less than half the vote case.



Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Come grasp the mighty avatar of our admin on August 15, 2011, 08:17:15 pm
"while split on gays"

Funny, considering that Colorado elected, and then reelected, the first openly gay Congressman


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Holmes on August 15, 2011, 08:22:26 pm
In the Senate race in 2010, the Republicans nominatd a conservatives, so the McCainiacs refused to vote in that election.

What percent of the Colorado electorate are McCainiacs? Do they have much sway in statewide elections? How much voted for Bennet over Buck? Please cite!

They are a relatively small percentage of the voters in Republican party, given their repeated defeats in primaries there.

However, the Democrat Senator was elected (he had been appointed to the office) with less than half the vote case.

Please cite your sources!


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on August 15, 2011, 08:43:04 pm
In the Senate race in 2010, the Republicans nominatd a conservatives, so the McCainiacs refused to vote in that election.

What percent of the Colorado electorate are McCainiacs? Do they have much sway in statewide elections? How much voted for Bennet over Buck? Please cite!

They are a relatively small percentage of the voters in Republican party, given their repeated defeats in primaries there.

However, the Democrat Senator was elected (he had been appointed to the office) with less than half the vote case.

Please cite your sources!

For the 2010 General Election results, please see:

http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/electionresults2010/general/ColoradoReport.html

For the 2010 Republican primary results, please see:

http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/electionresults2010/primary/ColoradoReport.html#REP


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Northam for Governor '17 on August 15, 2011, 08:57:06 pm
"while split on gays"

Funny, considering that Colorado elected, and then reelected, the first openly gay Congressman

I'd imagine his district isn't as split :P


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Joe Republic on August 15, 2011, 09:04:31 pm
"while split on gays"

Funny, considering that Colorado elected, and then reelected, the first openly gay Congressman

Given that Jared Polis would sooner have been dragged behind a pickup truck for ten miles than elected to Congress in some of the state's other districts, yeah, Colorado is definitely pretty split on gays.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Miles on August 15, 2011, 09:05:40 pm

Looks like PPP is a R2K reprise.


Not really. If you followed the 2010 election at all, you'd know that PPP has a slight Republican bias.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Eraserhead on August 15, 2011, 10:01:17 pm
We are definitely looking at one state that is not "trending" Republican.

Also, I'm enjoying CARLHAYDEN very much in this thread.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on August 27, 2011, 01:06:55 am
3 more PPP polls about Gay Marriage out today.

Wisconsin: 39% legal, 50% illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0826.pdf

Iowa: 46% legal, 45% illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_0826.pdf

Ohio: 33% legal, 53% illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0826.pdf

Map:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=0;8;3&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;4&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=0;8;5&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on August 28, 2011, 01:16:51 am
3 more PPP polls about Gay Marriage out today.

Wisconsin: 39% legal, 50% illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0826.pdf

Iowa: 46% legal, 45% illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_0826.pdf

Ohio: 33% legal, 53% illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0826.pdf

Map:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=0;8;3&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;4&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=0;8;5&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

I thought Wisconsin and Ohio would be better than that. Not even 40% support? Boo. I have a feeling Illinois is going to be more like Iowa/Minnesota and Indiana is more like Wisconsin/Ohio.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Holmes on August 28, 2011, 03:08:04 pm
Hmm, what has Branstad done to merit a -3 approval rating, I wonder.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Come grasp the mighty avatar of our admin on August 28, 2011, 03:58:57 pm
Please cite your sources!

I'd like to present to you CARLHAYDEN, since you two obviously never meet before.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on August 28, 2011, 04:09:18 pm
Hmm, what has Branstad done to merit a -3 approval rating, I wonder.

Probably people realizing that merely electing a Governor from the 90's won't bring back the 90's.



Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on September 01, 2011, 12:00:59 pm
Kentucky doesn't like the gays either, but we already knew that before:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 26%
Illegal .............................................................. 62%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_KY_08311118.pdf

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;4&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=0;8;5&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on September 01, 2011, 12:59:33 pm
PA now in favor of gay marriage, says F&M:

CU1. The state legislature is considering several proposals related to gay marriage and civil
unions. Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would allow
homosexual couples to get legally married?

50% Support
42% Oppose

CU2. Would you favor or oppose a state law that would allow homosexual couples to legally
form civil unions, giving them some of the legal rights of married couples?

62% Support
34% Oppose

https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyaug11_1.pdf

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;4&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=0;8;5&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Holmes on September 01, 2011, 02:17:41 pm
I don't believe it.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on September 01, 2011, 03:22:53 pm
Kentucky doesn't like the gays either, but we already knew that before:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 26%
Illegal .............................................................. 62%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_KY_08311118.pdf

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;4&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=0;8;5&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

Damn 62% opposed. That's Utah territory.

PA now in favor of gay marriage, says F&M:

CU1. The state legislature is considering several proposals related to gay marriage and civil
unions. Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would allow
homosexual couples to get legally married?

50% Support
42% Oppose

CU2. Would you favor or oppose a state law that would allow homosexual couples to legally
form civil unions, giving them some of the legal rights of married couples?

62% Support
34% Oppose

https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyaug11_1.pdf

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;4&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=0;8;5&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

Didn't expect that at all. I am skeptical...


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on September 03, 2011, 06:26:14 am
New Jersey (Rutgers):

Support Gay Marriage 52%
Oppose Gay Marriage 32%

Support Civil Union alternative 58%
Oppose Civil Union alternative 26%

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/polls/release_08-31-11.pdf

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=0;8;5&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)
[/quote]


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on September 03, 2011, 05:07:08 pm
New Jersey (Rutgers):

Support Gay Marriage 52%
Oppose Gay Marriage 32%

Support Civil Union alternative 58%
Oppose Civil Union alternative 26%

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/polls/release_08-31-11.pdf

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=0;8;5&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

Damn the Northeast is on fire! I think the Southwest (minus Utah) and the Midwest is going to follow the Northeast and the West Coast soon. Last will be the Southeast. SCOTUS will probably legalize it before they hit majority support.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on September 03, 2011, 05:09:58 pm

Damn the Northeast is on fire!

They are flaming, aren't they?


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on September 03, 2011, 05:18:33 pm

Damn the Northeast is on fire!

They are flaming, aren't they?

Fire spreads my friend.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2011, 11:31:27 am
PPP is out with the NC poll on gays and the state is very "special":

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 31%
Illegal .............................................................. 61%

State legislators have proposed an amendment to the North Carolina Constitution that would prohibit the recognition of marriage, civil unions, or domestic partnerships for gay and lesbian couples. If the election was held today, would you vote for or against this amendment?

Would vote for it.............................................. 30%
Would vote against it ...................................... 55%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_09071217.pdf

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=0;8;5&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on September 07, 2011, 12:34:51 pm
PPP is out with the NC poll on gays and the state is very "special":

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 31%
Illegal .............................................................. 61%

State legislators have proposed an amendment to the North Carolina Constitution that would prohibit the recognition of marriage, civil unions, or domestic partnerships for gay and lesbian couples. If the election was held today, would you vote for or against this amendment?

Would vote for it.............................................. 30%
Would vote against it ...................................... 55%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_09071217.pdf

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=0;8;5&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

Interesting. I believe they'd vote against the ban because it's marriage+civil unions/domestic partnerships. It'd probably pass if it just banned marriage.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on September 09, 2011, 07:16:30 pm
PPP is out with the SC poll on gay marriage:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 21%
Illegal .............................................................. 69%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_0907.pdf

Damn, are these the worst numbers we've seen so far?


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on September 10, 2011, 01:05:52 am
PPP is out with the SC poll on gay marriage:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 21%
Illegal .............................................................. 69%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_0907.pdf

Damn, are these the worst numbers we've seen so far?

Until they poll MS or AL, probably yeah.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on September 20, 2011, 04:03:40 pm
Move over SC, there's a new #1 state in town: West Virginia!

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 19%
Illegal .............................................................. 71%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WV_0915.pdf


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Napoleon on September 20, 2011, 04:14:21 pm
Move over SC, there's a new #1 state in town: West Virginia!

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 19%
Illegal .............................................................. 71%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WV_0915.pdf
They should have polled incest too.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on September 21, 2011, 09:18:44 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=0;34;3&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

I wonder what percentage a gay, liberal, muslim, black Democrat would get in WV in a 50-50 Presidential year ... ?

:P


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on September 21, 2011, 06:19:56 pm
Missouri's numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 32%
Illegal .............................................................. 59%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_09161118.pdf


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on September 23, 2011, 04:46:56 pm
Texas numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 29%
Illegal .............................................................. 61%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_0923424.pdf


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on September 25, 2011, 01:47:23 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=2;11;5&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2011, 12:15:38 pm
NC amendment still failing:

N.C. constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage

September 2011: 56 percent oppose / 39 percent support
February 2011: 56 percent oppose / 38 percent support
March 2009: 50 percent oppose / 43 percent support

The poll, conducted Sept. 25-29, 2011, surveyed 594 North Carolina residents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.02 percentage points. The sample is of the population in general, with numbers that include both landlines and cellular phones. The Elon University Poll does not restrict respondents by voter eligibility or likelihood of voting.

http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/093011.xhtml


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 02, 2011, 12:54:02 am
Missouri's numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 32%
Illegal .............................................................. 59%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_09161118.pdf

The show-me state has shown us that they're not a bellwether.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on October 04, 2011, 12:53:44 am
New Maryland poll:

Poll: Marylanders split on gay marriage, immigrant tuition

By John Wagner

A new poll finds Maryland voters almost evenly divided over the legalization of same-sex marriage and over allowing children of illegal immigrants to receive in-state college tuition rates — two issues that could be decided at the ballot box next year.

Meanwhile, President Obama’s job approval has “dipped considerably,” while Gov. Martin O’Malley’s rating remains “fairly solid,” and Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin appears well-positioned for re-election next year, according to the poll by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.

The poll comes as both sides gear up for another legislative fight next year over same-sex marriage, this time with O’Malley (D) planning to sponsor the bill.

The Gonzales poll found 48 percent of Marylanders who vote regularly favor a law allowing same-sex marriages, while 49 percent of that population are against allowing same-sex marriages.

There is a notable difference based on race. Fifty-one percent of white voters approve, compared to 41 percent of African-American voters. Meanwhile, 46 percent of white voters disapprove, compared to 59 percent of African Americans.

The opinion of voters could become particularly relevant if a same-sex marriage bill passes this session.

Opponents have vowed to take advantage of a provision in the state Constitution that allows citizens to petition just-passed laws to the ballot. With enough signatures, same-sex marriage would be subject to a statewide vote in November 2012.

A law passed this year allowing in-state college tuition rates for certain children of illegal immigrants has already been petitioned to the ballot.

The Gonzales poll found 47 percent of voters support the so-called Dream Act, while 51 percent are opposed.

Voters were asked whether they agree that “children of immigrants who are not in the state legally should be given the opportunity to receive Maryland in-state college tuition rates if they have graduated from a Maryland high school and their parents have filed Maryland tax returns for the past three years.”

The poll also found more voters approve of the way O’Malley is handling his job than the way Obama is handling his.

Voters in heavily Democratic Maryland are now almost evenly split on Obama, with 49 percent saying they approve of the job he is doing as president and 47 percent saying they disapprove.

That is a considerable slide since a January poll, which found 54 percent approved and 40 percent disapproved.

The poll found that 52 percent of Maryland voters approve of the job O’Malley is doing, while 40 percent disapprove — marks Gonzales said are “fairly solid.” O’Malley’s approval rating of 52 percent is higher in all but two of 11 previous Gonzales polls since the governor arrived in office in 2007.

The poll also showed that 63 percent of voters say they either will definitely vote for Cardin (D-Md.) next year or consider voting for him. More than one-third of Republicans even said they would consider voting for Cardin — “not the result a Republican hopeful for the office wants to see,” Gonzales noted.

The telephone poll of 805 registered voters who vote regularly was conducted Sept. 19 to Sept. 27. It was said to have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/poll-marylanders-split-on-gay-marriage-immigrant-tuition/2011/10/03/gIQAFmHuIL_blog.html

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=2;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=2;11;5&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=0;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on October 05, 2011, 03:16:26 pm
Nice! Massachusetts is the first state to hit 60% support:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 60%
Illegal .............................................................. 30%
Not sure ........................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_0923.pdf


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on October 14, 2011, 04:28:11 pm
New Iowa numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 41%
Illegal .............................................................. 48%
Not sure ........................................................... 11%

Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment that says the following: “Marriage
between one man and one woman shall be the
only legal union valid or recognized in this
state"?

Would vote for it..............................................  50%
Would vote against it ......................................  43%
Not sure ..........................................................   8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_1014.pdf

Also first numbers for Nebraska are out. Not as bad as I was expecting :P:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 36%
Illegal .............................................................. 54%
Not sure ........................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_1013.pdf


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Alcon on October 14, 2011, 04:53:40 pm
New Iowa numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 41%
Illegal .............................................................. 48%
Not sure ........................................................... 11%

Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment that says the following: “Marriage
between one man and one woman shall be the
only legal union valid or recognized in this
state"?

Would vote for it..............................................  50%
Would vote against it ......................................  43%
Not sure ..........................................................   8%

No gap?  Bizare.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2011, 04:04:47 am
Update:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=2;10;4&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=2;11;5&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on October 21, 2011, 10:11:28 pm
Hawaii numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 49%
Illegal .............................................................. 40%
Not sure ........................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_HI_10201.pdf


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on November 02, 2011, 01:51:43 pm
New numbers out for Maine. An improvement compared to 47% support, 46% oppose, 8% not sure from March 2011:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 51%
Illegal .............................................................. 42%
Not sure ........................................................... 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ME_1102424.pdf


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on November 08, 2011, 09:31:15 am
Minnesota likely to ban gay-marriage next year:

"Would you favor or oppose amending the Minnesota constitution to allow marriage only between a man and a woman?"

48% Favor
43% Oppose

http://www.startribune.com/politics/133367088.html

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/133406223.html

...

Update:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=2;10;4&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=0;6;3&MO=2;11;5&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on November 09, 2011, 12:13:51 am
Ugh. :(

We've got work to do.

33% of 18-34 year olds? Even with subsample MoE that strikes me as pretty odd.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Tender Branson on November 10, 2011, 03:43:43 am
Minnesota (SurveyUSA):

If an amendment to the Minnesota Constitution were on the ballot, that defines marriage as between one man and one woman, would you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?

46% For
40% Against

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=98e06008-a002-4bda-b2dc-d5093903734a


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: greenforest32 on November 12, 2011, 04:07:28 am
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/11/11/st-cloud-state-marriage-poll-split/

Quote
November 11, 2011
St. Paul, Minn. — A new St. Cloud State University Survey finds that Minnesotans are divided on an amendment to the state Constitution banning same-sex marriage.

The poll, released Thursday, finds that 47 percent of those surveyed do not support amending the state's Constitution to define marriage as between one man and one woman. Forty-four percent support the proposal and 9 percent either refused to answer or were undecided.

lol religion:

Quote
The SCSU researchers also tried to measure how attitudes toward religion might affect answers to the marriage question. The survey found 57 percent of those who said religion was important in their lives were in favor of the amendment, compared to 29 percent of the group who said religion was not important.


Title: Re: CO likes their Gov. & marijuana, but not prostitution - while split on gays
Post by: Brittain33 on November 12, 2011, 05:52:53 pm
Consider retitling this thread? I've been ignoring it for weeks because I assumed it was about referenda in Colorado, and was delighted to see it's tracking SSM sentiment in different states.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on November 13, 2011, 08:08:26 am
Polling in Minnesota this far out doesn't matter to us now. All that matters is that it shows where each side has to work on to win.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 14, 2011, 01:33:16 am
Well, despite that 11 point advantage in California, it sounds like there might not be a Proposition to legalize it next year. That's too bad, it would be hilarious to hear about "those activist voters legislating from the ballot box"


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nice Guy FF on November 14, 2011, 12:05:30 pm
Well, despite that 11 point advantage in California, it sounds like there might not be a Proposition to legalize it next year. That's too bad, it would be hilarious to hear about "those activist voters legislating from the ballot box"
Will they still blame Mormons/Blacks if it fails?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on November 18, 2011, 02:07:05 pm
Mississippi (PPP):

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 13%
Illegal .............................................................. 78%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

10% Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry
28% Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry
60% There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship
  2% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MS_1118.pdf


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on November 18, 2011, 02:09:32 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=2;10;4&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on November 18, 2011, 02:30:21 pm
Here's a comparable map of how the referendums have gone so far (between 1998 and 2008):

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;8&AK=2;3;6&AZ=2;10;5&AR=2;6;7&CA=2;55;5&CO=2;9;5&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;6&GA=2;15;7&HI=2;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=0;7;5&KS=2;6;7&KY=2;8;7&LA=2;9;7&MD=0;10;4&MA=0;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=0;10;4&MS=2;6;8&MO=2;11;7&MT=2;3;6&NV=2;5;6&NH=0;4;5&NJ=0;15;4&NM=0;5;4&NY=0;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=2;3;7&OH=2;20;6&OK=2;7;7&OR=2;7;5&PA=0;21;5&RI=0;4;5&SC=2;8;7&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;8&TX=2;34;7&UT=2;5;6&VT=0;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=0;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;7&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

Incl. NC and MN next year (according to polls now):

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;8&AK=2;3;6&AZ=2;10;5&AR=2;6;7&CA=2;55;5&CO=2;9;5&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;6&GA=2;15;7&HI=2;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=0;7;5&KS=2;6;7&KY=2;8;7&LA=2;9;7&MD=0;10;4&MA=0;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=2;6;8&MO=2;11;7&MT=2;3;6&NV=2;5;6&NH=0;4;5&NJ=0;15;4&NM=0;5;4&NY=0;31;5&NC=2;15;6&ND=2;3;7&OH=2;20;6&OK=2;7;7&OR=2;7;5&PA=0;21;5&RI=0;4;5&SC=2;8;7&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;8&TX=2;34;7&UT=2;5;6&VT=0;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=0;11;4&WV=0;5;12&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;7&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on November 18, 2011, 02:32:49 pm
What exactly makes SD so gay friendly ?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on November 18, 2011, 02:39:37 pm
What exactly makes SD so gay friendly ?

Their 2006 amendment was really restrictive, banning civil unions (like the failing Arizona one) and only passed 52%-48%.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on November 29, 2011, 03:35:32 pm
Pennsylvania joins the gay-haters, according to the new PPP poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 36%
Illegal .............................................................. 52%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_1129513.pdf

Most likely the previous F&M poll was a bad one ...

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=2;10;4&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 29, 2011, 03:36:30 pm
Pennsylvania joins the gay-haters

::)

But remember, we have to "raise the level of debate."


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Username MechaRFK on November 29, 2011, 03:46:47 pm
Most of Pennsylvania is Alabama of the North. 

"Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west and Alabama in the middle!"


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Phony Moderate on November 29, 2011, 03:47:02 pm
Pennsylvania joins the gay-haters

::)

But remember, we have to "raise the level of debate."

If you, you know, acknowledged that you're not in favor of small government, then we might respect your views slightly more.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on November 29, 2011, 04:08:44 pm
Most of Pennsylvania is Alabama of the North. 

"Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west and Alabama in the middle!"

Not really. There's Scranton and Erie, and completely ignoring that Alabama gets us nowhere. At a local level, Westmoreland is still pretty even, for instance.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on November 29, 2011, 04:56:18 pm
Most likely the previous F&M poll was a bad one ...

Yeah it definitely stood out.

Any bets on PPP's upcoming numbers for Arizona? Think Arizona will be ahead or behind Pennsylvania? I'm thinking it will be pretty close.

Also it looks like Oregon won't be having that gay marriage ballot measure in 2012: http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/11/basic_rights_oregon_will_not_p.html The organization called it off citing bad/notgoodenough poll numbers. It's definitely a done deal in 2016 but they may attempt it in 2014.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Snowguy716 on November 29, 2011, 06:04:06 pm
Polling in Minnesota this far out doesn't matter to us now. All that matters is that it shows where each side has to work on to win.
It's also impossible to tell where the state stands.. it's pretty close to evenly split and probably slightly in favor of the amendment overall.. though many polls have also showed a plurality opposing the referendum.



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 29, 2011, 10:15:04 pm
Pennsylvania joins the gay-haters

::)

But remember, we have to "raise the level of debate."

If you, you know, acknowledged that you're not in favor of small government, then we might respect your views slightly more.

I don't need to run my views by you to have them stamped for approval and then be told I "hate" a certain group of people if they don't meet your approval.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 30, 2011, 05:50:09 am
Gay marriage is an uncomfortable issue for Phil. Should it be made legal in either his state or Ohio, he will certainly feel societal pressure to get married to his one true love, Naso.

As the law currently stands, he can enjoy some level of safety in knowing that their relationship cannot progress beyond the simple "bromance" stage. It is that safety which he cherishes, and it is that safety that drives his opinion.

Be brave, Phil. You do not need the safety. Embrace your feelings!


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on November 30, 2011, 06:09:04 am
Studies indicate that polls significantly overstate public support for 'gay marriage."

http://prospect.org/article/when-can-you-trust-polling-about-ballot-measures

http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/egan_marriage_polling.pdf




Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on November 30, 2011, 10:37:32 am
Studies indicate that polls significantly overstate public support for 'gay marriage."

http://prospect.org/article/when-can-you-trust-polling-about-ballot-measures

http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/egan_marriage_polling.pdf

This is pretty well-known already, but must be a shallow comfort for you folks considering the obvious trend you're working against.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on November 30, 2011, 11:20:05 am
Arizona numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 44%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_1130424.pdf

Not bad...


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nice Guy FF on November 30, 2011, 03:33:30 pm
That's pretty good concidering Arizona is basiclly "The Mississippi Desert"


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ZonedOut on November 30, 2011, 04:40:45 pm
Considering that we are the only state to EVER defeat a marriage amendment (2006), I don't know why this should be all that surprising.  AZ is NOT Jesus country.   Since the Dems have already capitulated on guns, if they could find a way to get immigration off the table, this state would be a toss-up/barely lean red.  If I were going to imagine what "The Mississippi Desert" would look like, especially regarding gay rights,  I would basiclly tend to imagine a larger state with an even dumber governor. 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 01, 2011, 03:00:30 am
Studies indicate that polls significantly overstate public support for 'gay marriage."

http://prospect.org/article/when-can-you-trust-polling-about-ballot-measures

http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/egan_marriage_polling.pdf

This is pretty well-known already, but must be a shallow comfort for you folks considering the obvious trend you're working against.

Hmm.

You didn't "know" or acknowledge it when I pointed this out previous.

Oh, and would you please point out where the electorate (as opposed to inaccurate surveys) shows such a "trend"?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on December 01, 2011, 07:47:01 am
California 2000 vs California 2008 maybe? I dunno. Avert your eyes if you don't wanna see the "trend".


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 01, 2011, 07:51:14 am
California 2000 vs California 2008 maybe? I dunno. Avert your eyes if you don't wanna see the "trend".

Let me, the homosexual lobby LOST in 2008 in California.

Interesting trend.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on December 01, 2011, 08:07:07 am
California 2000 vs California 2008 maybe? I dunno. Avert your eyes if you don't wanna see the "trend".

Let me, the homosexual lobby LOST in 2008 in California.

Interesting trend.

Do you know what the word "trend" means?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on December 01, 2011, 11:17:19 am
CARLHAYDEN and J. J. constantly have times when I can't tell if they're just trolling or are the two densest people on Earth.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2011, 03:59:45 pm
Studies indicate that polls significantly overstate public support for 'gay marriage."

http://prospect.org/article/when-can-you-trust-polling-about-ballot-measures

http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/egan_marriage_polling.pdf

This is pretty well-known already, but must be a shallow comfort for you folks considering the obvious trend you're working against.

Hmm.

You didn't "know" or acknowledge it when I pointed this out previous.

I'm not sure that's English, but...have I disagreed in the past?  I don't respond to every post you make to indicate my agreement or disagreement.

Oh, and would you please point out where the electorate (as opposed to inaccurate surveys) shows such a "trend"?

Are you claiming that national and state polling that shows a long-term trend toward support of gay marriage increasing is..."inaccurate" because of the gap between it and Election Day results?  Yeah, I'm not sure you know what a "trend" is either.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: krazen1211 on December 01, 2011, 04:35:17 pm
Studies indicate that polls significantly overstate public support for 'gay marriage."

http://prospect.org/article/when-can-you-trust-polling-about-ballot-measures

http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/egan_marriage_polling.pdf


Yes, of course. All the polling in the universe does not address or reflect the actual performance of homosexuality at the ballot box.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: The Mikado on December 01, 2011, 06:10:41 pm
Pennsylvania joins the gay-haters, according to the new PPP poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 36%
Illegal .............................................................. 52%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_1129513.pdf

Most likely the previous F&M poll was a bad one ...

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=2;10;4&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=0;3;3&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

Worth noting the 12% undecided.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2011, 06:34:52 pm
Studies indicate that polls significantly overstate public support for 'gay marriage."

http://prospect.org/article/when-can-you-trust-polling-about-ballot-measures

http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/egan_marriage_polling.pdf


Yes, of course. All the polling in the universe does not address or reflect the actual performance of homosexuality at the ballot box.

I don't understand how you guys think about this.  Are you insinuating that the underperformance of gay rights at the ballot box somehow negates the obvious trends we've seen in social science polling (and at the ballot box, really) on this issue over the past decade?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Stardust on December 01, 2011, 07:42:51 pm
Studies indicate that polls significantly overstate public support for 'gay marriage."

http://prospect.org/article/when-can-you-trust-polling-about-ballot-measures

http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/egan_marriage_polling.pdf


Yes, of course. All the polling in the universe does not address or reflect the actual performance of homosexuality at the ballot box.

I don't understand how you guys think about this.  Are you insinuating that the underperformance of gay rights at the ballot box somehow negates the obvious trends we've seen in social science polling (and at the ballot box, really) on this issue over the past decade?

I believe he's suggesting there exists a sort-of Bradley Effect on the issue.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2011, 07:45:44 pm
Studies indicate that polls significantly overstate public support for 'gay marriage."

http://prospect.org/article/when-can-you-trust-polling-about-ballot-measures

http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/egan_marriage_polling.pdf


Yes, of course. All the polling in the universe does not address or reflect the actual performance of homosexuality at the ballot box.

I don't understand how you guys think about this.  Are you insinuating that the underperformance of gay rights at the ballot box somehow negates the obvious trends we've seen in social science polling (and at the ballot box, really) on this issue over the past decade?

I believe he's suggesting there exists a sort-of Bradley Effect on the issue.

I get that, but that doesn't mean the polls "don't address" the actual performance, nor does it suggest the trend seen in polling on the issue is false.  It seems like both posters I'm quoting are making additional claims besides a sort of "Bradley Effect" (maybe I'm wrong) but aren't being clear what they mean.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 02, 2011, 03:14:57 am
California 2000 vs California 2008 maybe? I dunno. Avert your eyes if you don't wanna see the "trend".

Let me, the homosexual lobby LOST in 2008 in California.

Interesting trend.

Do you know what the word "trend" means?

Well, lets look at the record.

First, in 2008, due to intensive effort on the left and disgust among voters on the right with the Presidential candidates, the actual voters in the 2008 General Election were farther to the left than in recent elections prior to or subsequent to that election.

Second, California is generally regarded by political observers as being well to the left of the rest of America.

Third, the proponents of homosexual marriage considered putting a new measure on the ballot in 2010 but were advised against doing so by experts who told them (I believe correctly) that the electorate in 2010 would be more unfavorable to them than in 2008.

So, when you cann't win in a left state when the wind is at your back, the 'trend' is against you.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 02, 2011, 03:26:00 am
Studies indicate that polls significantly overstate public support for 'gay marriage."

http://prospect.org/article/when-can-you-trust-polling-about-ballot-measures

http://politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/egan_marriage_polling.pdf

This is pretty well-known already, but must be a shallow comfort for you folks considering the obvious trend you're working against.

Hmm.

You didn't "know" or acknowledge it when I pointed this out previous.

I'm not sure that's English, but...have I disagreed in the past?  I don't respond to every post you make to indicate my agreement or disagreement.

Oh, and would you please point out where the electorate (as opposed to inaccurate surveys) shows such a "trend"?

Are you claiming that national and state polling that shows a long-term trend toward support of gay marriage increasing is..."inaccurate" because of the gap between it and Election Day results?  Yeah, I'm not sure you know what a "trend" is either.

Alcon,

You are truly comical.  Yes, there are a lot of things you don't understand.

Did you bother to look at any of the studies for which I provided the url?

Now, yes, some surveys show an increase in support for homosexuality, including 'gay marriage,' but if you look at the election returns on that issue ('gay marriage') you will see that the 'polls' have been pretty consistently overstating such support relative to actual votes.  A most recent example being Maine.

Also, when opponents of 'gay marriage' sought to put the issue on the ballot in Massachusetts the proponents of 'gay marriage' fiercely opposed such a vote.  It would seem to me if they were confident of winning (the proponents of 'gay marriage') in Massachusetts they would welcome such an example of public support. 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Joe Republic on December 02, 2011, 03:35:44 am
Why the apostrophes, CARL?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Stardust on December 02, 2011, 03:38:30 am
It would seem to me if they were confident of winning (the proponents of 'gay marriage') in Massachusetts they would welcome such an example of public support.  

Why? Direct democracy ought to be opposed by anyone who feels strongly on just about any political issue. Nobody should propose holding referenda on any subject they consider important, because the democratic process debases all subjects. I would hope that a conservative like yourself would understand that and share my hostility towards mass politics.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 02, 2011, 04:01:08 am
Why the apostrophes, CARL?

There's a a quotation attributed to Abraham Lincoln that asserts that calling a tail a leg is simply false.

'Gay marriage' is a definitional falsity.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 02, 2011, 04:03:47 am
It would seem to me if they were confident of winning (the proponents of 'gay marriage') in Massachusetts they would welcome such an example of public support.  

Why? Direct democracy ought to be opposed by anyone who feels strongly on just about any political issue. Nobody should propose holding referenda on any subject they consider important, because the democratic process debases all subjects. I would hope that a conservative like yourself would understand that and share my hostility towards mass politics.

Yours is a legitimate position.

However, this thread is about the inaccuracy of polls on state 'same-sex marriage' laws.

Now, will you in turn admit that if there had been a referendum on the Massachusetts 'gay marriage' law, the voters may have rejected 'gay marriage'?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Joe Republic on December 02, 2011, 04:13:25 am
Why the apostrophes, CARL?

There's a a quotation attributed to Abraham Lincoln that asserts that calling a tail a leg is simply false.

'Gay marriage' is a definitional falsity.

How so?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Stardust on December 02, 2011, 04:14:30 am
Now, will you in turn admit that if there had been a referendum on the Massachusetts 'gay marriage' law, the voters may have rejected 'gay marriage'?

I readily admit that. I'm not sure, however, why I ought to accept the judgment of the voters as a qualitatively valid one.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: danny on December 02, 2011, 04:27:03 am
California 2000 vs California 2008 maybe? I dunno. Avert your eyes if you don't wanna see the "trend".

Let me, the homosexual lobby LOST in 2008 in California.

Interesting trend.

Do you know what the word "trend" means?

Well, lets look at the record.

First, in 2008, due to intensive effort on the left and disgust among voters on the right with the Presidential candidates, the actual voters in the 2008 General Election were farther to the left than in recent elections prior to or subsequent to that election.

Second, California is generally regarded by political observers as being well to the left of the rest of America.

Third, the proponents of homosexual marriage considered putting a new measure on the ballot in 2010 but were advised against doing so by experts who told them (I believe correctly) that the electorate in 2010 would be more unfavorable to them than in 2008.

So, when you cann't win in a left state when the wind is at your back, the 'trend' is against you.

Proposition 22 (2000):
yes 61.40%
no 38.60%
margin 22.8

Proposition 8 (2008):
yes 52.47%
no 47.76%
margin 4.71

That's a difference of 18 in 8 years or about 2.25 per year, if a similar trend were to continue until 2012 the results would be 4.3% in favour of gay marriage.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on December 02, 2011, 04:39:39 am
California 2000 vs California 2008 maybe? I dunno. Avert your eyes if you don't wanna see the "trend".

Let me, the homosexual lobby LOST in 2008 in California.

Interesting trend.

Do you know what the word "trend" means?

Well, lets look at the record.

Yes, let's 'look' at the 'record' then, 'Carl.'

It's not even that complicated, you only have to just look at a wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_of_same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States

In the mid-90s, support for gay marriage was in the mid-high 20's. Throughout the early 2000's, support nudged upward through the 30s. In the last 3-4 years, support for gay marriage as evolved rapidly. This isn't a matter of opinion, the country is coming around to supporting gay marriage and it will happen whether you like it or not, sooner or later. There has been an undeniable upward tend in support for gay marriage in the last 15 years.

As the poster previous to me just mentioned, there's been an 18% swing in favor of gay marriage from 2000 to 2008. Since 2008, the national opinion of gay marriage has swung even more in favor of gay marriage.

This is what trend means, Carl:

trend (plural trends)
    An inclination in a particular direction


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 02, 2011, 04:58:57 am
California 2000 vs California 2008 maybe? I dunno. Avert your eyes if you don't wanna see the "trend".

Let me, the homosexual lobby LOST in 2008 in California.

Interesting trend.

Do you know what the word "trend" means?

Well, lets look at the record.

First, in 2008, due to intensive effort on the left and disgust among voters on the right with the Presidential candidates, the actual voters in the 2008 General Election were farther to the left than in recent elections prior to or subsequent to that election.

Second, California is generally regarded by political observers as being well to the left of the rest of America.

Third, the proponents of homosexual marriage considered putting a new measure on the ballot in 2010 but were advised against doing so by experts who told them (I believe correctly) that the electorate in 2010 would be more unfavorable to them than in 2008.

So, when you cann't win in a left state when the wind is at your back, the 'trend' is against you.

Proposition 22 (2000):
yes 61.40%
no 38.60%
margin 22.8

Proposition 8 (2008):
yes 52.47%
no 47.76%
margin 4.71

That's a difference of 18 in 8 years or about 2.25 per year, if a similar trend were to continue until 2012 the results would be 4.3% in favour of gay marriage.

I tried to be clear about this, but apparently not clear enough for you.

In 2008, the Democrats achieved a remarkable increase in support at the polls in California while Republicans suffered a significant increase, both relative to 2000.

Now support for 'gay marriage' is significantly greater among Democrats than Republicans in California (and probably most states), so 2008 was a particularly good year for the proponents of 'gay marriage' in California, and they still lost. According to Edison, 85 % of those who voted no on Proposition 8 voted for Obama, whereas 61 % of those who voted for Proposition 8 voted for McCain.  http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=CAP00p7


Here are some numbers from Dave Leip on the partisan Presidential vote in California in 2000 and 2008, as well as changes and proportions.

So, it would appear that of the change in the vote was the result of the Democrat surge in 2008.

Party                    2000          2008          Change

Democrat            53.45          60.94          1.14
Republican          41.65          36.91          0.89
Proportion            1.28            1.65          1.28



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 02, 2011, 05:02:03 am
California 2000 vs California 2008 maybe? I dunno. Avert your eyes if you don't wanna see the "trend".

Let me, the homosexual lobby LOST in 2008 in California.

Interesting trend.

Do you know what the word "trend" means?

Well, lets look at the record.

Yes, let's 'look' at the 'record' then, 'Carl.'

It's not even that complicated, you only have to just look at a wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_of_same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States

In the mid-90s, support for gay marriage was in the mid-high 20's. Throughout the early 2000's, support nudged upward through the 30s. In the last 3-4 years, support for gay marriage as evolved rapidly. This isn't a matter of opinion, the country is coming around to supporting gay marriage and it will happen whether you like it or not, sooner or later. There has been an undeniable upward tend in support for gay marriage in the last 15 years.

As the poster previous to me just mentioned, there's been an 18% swing in favor of gay marriage from 2000 to 2008. Since 2008, the national opinion of gay marriage has swung even more in favor of gay marriage.

This is what trend means, Carl:

trend (plural trends)
    An inclination in a particular direction

Morakai,

Please pay attention to what I posted.

Yes, several surveys are showing increased support for homosexuality, and 'gay marriage,' but the elections have shown those polls to be highly suspect (to put it mildly).

That's not just my opinion, but that of a number of expert analysts (I cited url's).


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on December 02, 2011, 07:03:05 am
Why the apostrophes, CARL?

There's a a quotation attributed to Abraham Lincoln that asserts that calling a tail a leg is simply false.

'Gay marriage' is a definitional falsity.

I'm married. It's a reality, legally and socially. Your opinion doesn't matter to me. If I lived in some other state, it would for legal reasons. But the trend for the future is clear.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on December 02, 2011, 07:56:18 am
I mean, I'm not offended, but the whole point of this thread is to show that your opinion doesn't really matter. You and lots of old people don't recognize same-sex marriage, that's fine. Young people overwhelmingly do. The laws will change to reflect that, the process has already started. No one disputes that more people oppose same-sex marriage that the polling booth than in polls, but even then it will fall below 50%, and before that point, it will be resolved in legislatures and courts elsewhere. All the apostrophes in the world won't win this battle for you, any more than you've singlehandedly blocked the border with a wall of flaming outrage.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: memphis on December 02, 2011, 07:57:52 am
Why the apostrophes, CARL?

There's a a quotation attributed to Abraham Lincoln that asserts that calling a tail a leg is simply false.

'Gay marriage' is a definitional falsity.

I'm married. It's a reality, legally and socially. Your opinion doesn't matter to me. If I lived in some other state, it would for legal reasons. But the trend for the future is clear.
Brittain, I support your marriage. I can't figure out why anybody wouldn't. Out of spite, I suppose. Need I remind you, however, Massachusetts recognizes your marriage, but the federal government does not. You're still not all the way there legally.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 02, 2011, 07:58:42 am
Why the apostrophes, CARL?

There's a a quotation attributed to Abraham Lincoln that asserts that calling a tail a leg is simply false.

'Gay marriage' is a definitional falsity.

I'm married. It's a reality, legally and socially. Your opinion doesn't matter to me. If I lived in some other state, it would for legal reasons. But the trend for the future is clear.

First, it would seem that you are asserting that you are a homosexual (otherwise you assertion about being married would have no relevance).

Second, it wound be interesting to know the state where you marriage occurred, as not a single state has had 'gay marriage' instituted as a result of a vote of the people.  Some states have had 'gay marriage' imposed on them by black robed superlegislators, while a very few others have seen real legislators betray the explicit promises to the voters to oppose "gay marriage' (New York is the supreme example of the latter).

Third, I really don't have any idea of what you mean by "socially," as this thread has been devoted to the legal institution of marriage and surveys with respect to extending marriage to homosexuals.

Fourth you assertion that "the trend is clear," is simply a gratuitous assertion, without evidence (which I have supplied in my posts).

Fifth, your assertion that "(if I lived in some other state, it would for legal reasons," doesn't make any sense to me.  Please be so good to expand.

Finally, as I have (on other threads at this forum in days past) noted that the central purpose of marriage (as opposed to civil unions) is to provide for the rights of minors 'ensuing' from the marriage.  As such, it seems to me that persons incapable of procreating should be given civil unions and marriages reserved for those capable of procreating with their legal partner.  


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Stardust on December 02, 2011, 08:00:11 am
As such, it seems to me that persons incapable of procreating should be given civil unions and marriages reserved for those capable of procreating with their legal partner.  

This isn't a very conservative concept. In fact, it's a radical innovation, more radical by far than homosexual marriage. The true conservatives of the ancien regime would have wanted you lynched.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on December 02, 2011, 08:08:11 am
As such, it seems to me that persons incapable of procreating should be given civil unions and marriages reserved for those capable of procreating with their legal partner.  

This isn't a very conservative concept. In fact, it's a radical innovation, more radical by far than homosexual marriage. The true conservatives of the ancien regime would have wanted you lynched.

More to the point, it's not how marriage law operates now in the U.S. If CARL tried to legislate this distinction or put it up to a vote, it would lose by a landslide. When this interpretation crimps the rights of heterosexuals to marry (imagine any marriage post-menopause), it is soundly defeated.

This concept has been brought up in pretty much every same-sex marriage court case and defeated by the mountain of evidence citing that procreation is not a requirement for opposite-sex couples, and also that many same-sex couples are raising children of their own (adoption or biological, whichever; the court doesn't deem adopted children as less worthy of protection) who merit that environment offered by the shelter of the laws.

CARL's either going to get this or he'll choose not to, that's fine. I'm not going to waste time rehashing arguments the rest of the country already had over the past ten years about how laws are passed, why courts exist, the fact that marriage doesn't adhere to the strictures needed to exclude same-sex couples, etc. It's enough to know that he's losing this in the long run and condescending loudly to people on a web site isn't going to change that.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 02, 2011, 08:10:41 am
Why the apostrophes, CARL?

There's a a quotation attributed to Abraham Lincoln that asserts that calling a tail a leg is simply false.

'Gay marriage' is a definitional falsity.

I'm married. It's a reality, legally and socially. Your opinion doesn't matter to me. If I lived in some other state, it would for legal reasons. But the trend for the future is clear.
Brittain, I support your marriage. I can't figure out why anybody wouldn't. Out of spite, I suppose. Need I remind you, however, Massachusetts recognizes your marriage, but the federal government does not. You're still not all the way there legally.

Memphis,

I am sure there are a lot of things you can't "figure out."

But, no matter how much evidence and logic one might apply, you seem to assume that anyone who disagrees with you does so "out of spite."



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 02, 2011, 08:12:03 am
As such, it seems to me that persons incapable of procreating should be given civil unions and marriages reserved for those capable of procreating with their legal partner.  

This isn't a very conservative concept. In fact, it's a radical innovation, more radical by far than homosexual marriage. The true conservatives of the ancien regime would have wanted you lynched.

LOL.



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on December 02, 2011, 08:12:57 am
Why the apostrophes, CARL?

There's a a quotation attributed to Abraham Lincoln that asserts that calling a tail a leg is simply false.

'Gay marriage' is a definitional falsity.

I'm married. It's a reality, legally and socially. Your opinion doesn't matter to me. If I lived in some other state, it would for legal reasons. But the trend for the future is clear.
Brittain, I support your marriage. I can't figure out why anybody wouldn't. Out of spite, I suppose. Need I remind you, however, Massachusetts recognizes your marriage, but the federal government does not. You're still not all the way there legally.

Oh, certainly true. We remember that every time tax time comes around.

I'm confident the feds will start recognizing Mass. marriages sometime soon. The court cases couldn't be any clearer and they're well on their way. But we're not there yet.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Stardust on December 02, 2011, 08:14:04 am
As such, it seems to me that persons incapable of procreating should be given civil unions and marriages reserved for those capable of procreating with their legal partner.  

This isn't a very conservative concept. In fact, it's a radical innovation, more radical by far than homosexual marriage. The true conservatives of the ancien regime would have wanted you lynched.

LOL.



Why do you think I'm joking? You have just radically altered the definition of an institution.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 02, 2011, 08:19:10 am
As such, it seems to me that persons incapable of procreating should be given civil unions and marriages reserved for those capable of procreating with their legal partner.  

This isn't a very conservative concept. In fact, it's a radical innovation, more radical by far than homosexual marriage. The true conservatives of the ancien regime would have wanted you lynched.

More to the point, it's not how marriage law operates now in the U.S. If CARL tried to legislate this distinction or put it up to a vote, it would lose by a landslide. When this interpretation crimps the rights of heterosexuals to marry (imagine any marriage post-menopause), it is soundly defeated.

This concept has been brought up in pretty much every same-sex marriage court case and defeated by the mountain of evidence citing that procreation is not a requirement for opposite-sex couples, and also that many same-sex couples are raising children of their own (adoption or biological, whichever; the court doesn't deem adopted children as less worthy of protection) who merit that environment offered by the shelter of the laws.

CARL's either going to get this or he'll choose not to, that's fine. I'm not going to waste time rehashing arguments the rest of the country already had over the past ten years about how laws are passed, why courts exist, the fact that marriage doesn't adhere to the strictures needed to exclude same-sex couples, etc. It's enough to know that he's losing this in the long run and condescending loudly to people on a web site isn't going to change that.

Please do drop you posts if you are unable to answer any of my points.

Replying to a silly post of another poster is simply laughable.

Oh, and you keep making false assumptions.  Adoption if a legal process.  The courts require evidence of provision for such adoptees.  Marriage provides for such legal protections.

Funny how the proponents of homosexuality on this board can not cite even one election in which the public has endorsed 'gay marriage' but blithely assert they will prevail based on surveys which have proven to be inaccurate.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 02, 2011, 08:20:02 am
As such, it seems to me that persons incapable of procreating should be given civil unions and marriages reserved for those capable of procreating with their legal partner.  

This isn't a very conservative concept. In fact, it's a radical innovation, more radical by far than homosexual marriage. The true conservatives of the ancien regime would have wanted you lynched.

LOL.



Why do you think I'm joking? You have just radically altered the definition of an institution.

You assertion is laughable, to I laugh at it.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CaDan on December 02, 2011, 08:20:16 am
Comparing Proposition 22 and Proposition 8 is laughable.

Proposition 8 was a Constitutional Amendment, Proposition 22 was not. The two propositions were worded differently as well.

Apples and oranges.

Oh and "social 'science'" is not a science at all.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Stardust on December 02, 2011, 08:25:15 am
As such, it seems to me that persons incapable of procreating should be given civil unions and marriages reserved for those capable of procreating with their legal partner.  

This isn't a very conservative concept. In fact, it's a radical innovation, more radical by far than homosexual marriage. The true conservatives of the ancien regime would have wanted you lynched.

LOL.



Why do you think I'm joking? You have just radically altered the definition of an institution.

You assertion is laughable, to I laugh at it.

You clearly need to study some authentically (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_de_Maistre) conservative thinkers.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: memphis on December 02, 2011, 08:32:59 am
As such, it seems to me that persons incapable of procreating should be given civil unions and marriages reserved for those capable of procreating with their legal partner.  

This isn't a very conservative concept. In fact, it's a radical innovation, more radical by far than homosexual marriage. The true conservatives of the ancien regime would have wanted you lynched.

LOL.



Why do you think I'm joking? You have just radically altered the definition of an institution.

You assertion is laughable, to I laugh at it.
You suggested a fertility test for marriage. That would be a very strange situation indeed. Especially as fertility is not always binary. A forty something woman might be able to get pregnant, but it'd be a lot harder than in her college (or even high school) days. Men usually don't have a problem with age, except for what I'll delicately call the Viagara situation.
And do you have to be fertile only to initiate marriage or do you need all your organs in functioning order to remain married. Seems strange to deny a marriage license to a woman a month after the onset of menopause, when she could have gotten grandfathered in with the same man just the year before. Then you'd need regular checkups to ensure people are still fertile. Once a woman goes through the change of life, you'd need to annul the marriage. Should all women be forced to send the state their medical records at that point so that they can have their marriages cancelled?  Because that's the logical conclusion of your fertility argument.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on December 02, 2011, 08:42:21 am
The social conservative butthurt on this issue is hilarious. I only wish we had more issues like this to piss them off

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147662/first-time-majority-americans-favor-legal-gay-marriage.aspx

(http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/vqf79nrpfewws7ibh-1u-q.gif)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on December 02, 2011, 08:50:49 am
Morakai,

Way to go, Carl.

Quote
Please pay attention to what I posted.

Yes, several surveys are showing increased support for homosexuality, and 'gay marriage,' but the elections have shown those polls to be highly suspect (to put it mildly).

That's not just my opinion, but that of a number of expert analysts (I cited url's).

Whether or not you can accept it, this is not a matter of your opinion, this is an empirical, checkable thing. Look at the Gallup graph above, alone. Support for gay marriage has practically doubled since the mid-90s. Look at every polling company ever and their data on this issue over a decade, and support for gay marriage increases regularly. It's increased even faster than usual in the last few years.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CaDan on December 02, 2011, 09:06:20 am
Carl already pointed that polling on this issue is misleading.

1. Polling companies routinely "cook the books" either deliberately or through the way in which they word their questions.

2. Individuals often do not give accurate information to pollsters.

3. There is a marked difference between the national polls on this issue, and individual State polls. If the national polls like the Gallup garbage are correct, then Pennsylvania shouldn't have a 20+ point gap against homosexual 'marriage'.

So either Gallup is wrong, PPP is wrong, or something else is going on.

4. Polling companies changed the wording of the way that they asked the question. This means that any polls before/after that change cannot be compared.

5. A recent national poll using different wording found 62% opposition to changing the definition of marriage. (This would be more in line with the 20 point gap found in Pennsylvania).


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: memphis on December 02, 2011, 09:28:43 am
There are some problems with "inquiry" methods of ascertaining information. You're right that how a question is worded is hugely important. When gathering public opinion, you don't want to push people with weasel words. "Should so and so be recognized" sounds pretty neutral to me. "Should we change the definition of marriage" is clearly pushing a conservative stance. It encourages the appeal to tradition fallacy. 
In the above Gallup graph, the wording has remained consistent except for one change in 2005. And there wasn't a lot of change around 2005. If it bother you that much you could just break the graph into two sections and see that there was a great deal of change from 1996-2005 and then also from 2006-2011.
Also, suggesting that the sea change of opinion in the graph is about people suddenly deciding to lie to pollsters when they weren't lying just a few years back doesn't sound like a strong position to me. If you want to assert that public opinion on this issue hasn't changed, you need some evidence to back that up. Polling, from a reputable firm, over several years, with a consistent phrasing. Happy searching!


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on December 02, 2011, 09:36:09 am
Carl already pointed that polling on this issue is misleading.

1. Polling companies routinely "cook the books" either deliberately or through the way in which they word their questions.

The Gallup question has been remarkably consistent for years, as far as I know.

Beyond that, unsure what you mean by "cook the books."  Are you alleging the trend on the gay marriage issue is a mass fabrication?

2. Individuals often do not give accurate information to pollsters.

Again, I'm not quite sure what you're getting at.  There's certainly a phenomenon where gay rights issues modestly overpoll on average.  But are you suggesting that the trend is instead just a massive increase in misrepresentation of opinion?  That doesn't even square with election results.

3. There is a marked difference between the national polls on this issue, and individual State polls. If the national polls like the Gallup garbage are correct, then Pennsylvania shouldn't have a 20+ point gap against homosexual 'marriage'.

So either Gallup is wrong, PPP is wrong, or something else is going on.

And then there are results like Arizona.  Have you added this up?  I'd be interested in what you got.

4. Polling companies changed the wording of the way that they asked the question. This means that any polls before/after that change cannot be compared.

Ehh, you can compare dissimilar things.  It just introduces a degree of subjectivity.  And again...you think this explains the shift in the Gallup Poll?  I'm just not quite sure what specific claim you're making, sorry.

5. A recent national poll using different wording found 62% opposition to changing the definition of marriage. (This would be more in line with the 20 point gap found in Pennsylvania).

Would you mind linking to this?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on December 02, 2011, 09:59:04 am
Please do drop you posts if you are unable to answer any of my points.

The stuff you think is important, isn't important. The points you raise have been raised a zillion times already by people and been shot down. I would direct you to the Goodridge decision if you were genuinely interested in hearing a different point of view, but you've never shown any interest in that.

I mean, I know this is how your brain works, and it makes sense to you, and it's why most people don't try to engage you. I understand how deeply frustrating it must be for you to see hypocrisy and dishonesty everywhere you go and to see yourself as the only person who is an honest straight shooter, and how much patience it requires for you to respond to us, even if you can barely disguise your anger and disgust, and if you're not capable of empathy. I get it. It's a common affliction to people whose love of data will draw them to a site like this. I just don't know what to do with it when it reaches a certain level of intensity, and it's sad.

You don't think my marriage is a marriage because a) we can't procreate, b) we didn't get the support of 50% of the people in our state in a referendum, and c) various personal reasons we've never gotten into. I don't care about any of those reasons, none of them matter to me. They are not part of my personal reality and they are fading as a part of my legal reality. They don't matter to a growing number of Americans. If putting me down makes you feel better about who you are, then I welcome your condescension and outrage. My life is pretty good, and if this is the role you need me to play for you to be happy, then I will shoulder the burden.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on December 02, 2011, 10:10:27 am
It's interesting to think that to CARL, what I wrote below reads exactly as a CARLHAYDEN post reads to anyone else, and will probably get the same response.

Life is weird.

Please do drop you posts if you are unable to answer any of my points.

The stuff you think is important, isn't important. The points you raise have been raised a zillion times already by people and been shot down. I would direct you to the Goodridge decision if you were genuinely interested in hearing a different point of view, but you've never shown any interest in that.

I mean, I know this is how your brain works, and it makes sense to you, and it's why most people don't try to engage you. I understand how deeply frustrating it must be for you to see hypocrisy and dishonesty everywhere you go and to see yourself as the only person who is an honest straight shooter, and how much patience it requires for you to respond to us, even if you can barely disguise your anger and disgust, and if you're not capable of empathy. I get it. It's a common affliction to people whose love of data will draw them to a site like this. I just don't know what to do with it when it reaches a certain level of intensity, and it's sad.

You don't think my marriage is a marriage because a) we can't procreate, b) we didn't get the support of 50% of the people in our state in a referendum, and c) various personal reasons we've never gotten into. I don't care about any of those reasons, none of them matter to me. They are not part of my personal reality and they are fading as a part of my legal reality. They don't matter to a growing number of Americans. If putting me down makes you feel better about who you are, then I welcome your condescension and outrage. My life is pretty good, and if this is the role you need me to play for you to be happy, then I will shoulder the burden.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on December 02, 2011, 10:12:29 am
So either Gallup is wrong, PPP is wrong, or something else is going on.

It could be a combination of things. First, you're comparing one state poll out of a whole series (most of which are not as lopsided as PA) to a long series of polls by Gallup. It would be perfectly kosher to say, hey, PPP's one poll of PA is wrong.

Beyond that, the difference could come down to question structure. Also, PA has one of the highest median ages in the country.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on December 02, 2011, 10:30:07 am
Carl already pointed that polling on this issue is misleading.

1. Polling companies routinely "cook the books" either deliberately or through the way in which they word their questions.

2. Individuals often do not give accurate information to pollsters.

3. There is a marked difference between the national polls on this issue, and individual State polls. If the national polls like the Gallup garbage are correct, then Pennsylvania shouldn't have a 20+ point gap against homosexual 'marriage'.

So either Gallup is wrong, PPP is wrong, or something else is going on.

4. Polling companies changed the wording of the way that they asked the question. This means that any polls before/after that change cannot be compared.

5. A recent national poll using different wording found 62% opposition to changing the definition of marriage. (This would be more in line with the 20 point gap found in Pennsylvania).

We all know gay marriage overpolls in most cases by a few points, there's no doubt about that. And different polling firms will come to slightly different conclusions and there are always outliers. But this isn't some recent trend. This is something we've been seeing over the course of two decades and continuing, which has manifested itself not only in public opinion but also in election results, and in entertainment, in pop culture. Gays are becoming an accepted group in all respects, including in the political realm.

Faced with that fact, there are only two possible responses you could possibly give: Polling companies are wildly off, all of them, every time, or this is some sort of mass conspiracy perpetrated by multiple polling firms and organizations for the purpose of.. something I don't quite understand yet. If you believe the former, you're wrong, (since that doesn't square with recent referendum results, losses or no), and if you believe the latter, you are impossible to reason with on any level.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on December 02, 2011, 10:35:19 am
So either Gallup is wrong, PPP is wrong, or something else is going on.

It could be a combination of things. First, you're comparing one state poll out of a whole series (most of which are not as lopsided as PA) to a long series of polls by Gallup. It would be perfectly kosher to say, hey, PPP's one poll of PA is wrong.

Beyond that, the difference could come down to question structure. Also, PA has one of the highest median ages in the country.

I think another thing that might contribute to the difference is polls of adults in general vs polls of registered voters.

A huge chunk of eligible voters (over 20% at least) aren't even registered to vote: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CaDan on December 02, 2011, 11:08:31 am
Pennsylvania is a swing state with a left lean. Hence, if the national polls indicated a 53%-44% split in favor of redefining marriage, Pennsylvania should be somewhat close to that number, not 20 points in the opposite direction.

When you consider the other PPP polls (OH, MI, MN, ect...) you don't get numbers IN SWING STATES which would support what the Gallup polls are showing.

When you add in the numbers in places like MARYLAND (about as far left as you can get) then something is wrong with the way Gallup is conducting the poll.



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CaDan on December 02, 2011, 11:11:31 am
Oh, and changing ONE WORD in a polling question can drastically change the results.

Hence, social "science" is not science at all.

Self-reporting surveys are inherently flawed, especially on hot button issues in the face of propaganda and violence from those pushing an agenda on the issue. (White powder sent to mormon temples, assaults, death threats, boycotts, fines, ect...)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on December 02, 2011, 11:16:56 am
Pennsylvania is a swing state with a left lean. Hence, if the national polls indicated a 53%-44% split in favor of redefining marriage, Pennsylvania should be somewhat close to that number, not 20 points in the opposite direction.

When you consider the other PPP polls (OH, MI, MN, ect...) you don't get numbers IN SWING STATES which would support what the Gallup polls are showing.

When you add in the numbers in places like MARYLAND (about as far left as you can get) then something is wrong with the way Gallup is conducting the poll.

This is not just Gallup's result.  It's been echoed by Pew and others.  Gay marriage also relatively lags in the Midwest compared to New England and the West, so a simple adjustment of the Pennsylvania results may be insufficient.

Have you done a statistical analysis to try to demonstrate whether the state and national polls are incompatible?  It may seem that way facially, but by contrast, Arizona's -1 would suggest that a national +3 (or whatever) is more than plausible.  If all of this oddness adds up to the difference of only a few points, claiming it throws the trend towards gay rights support into question is an absurd conclusion.

Moreover, since multiple national polls echo this result, and because it's not like state and national polling have immensely different methodologies, I'm not exactly sure what you're suggesting explains the discrepancy you're sensing.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on December 02, 2011, 11:23:39 am
Oh, and changing ONE WORD in a polling question can drastically change the results.

Hence, social "science" is not science at all.

That doesn't really follow.  There's a use of scientific methodology; there is just subjectivity involved in finding a representative sample and in finding the right question to gauge an abstract concept.  The fact that people respond differently to different phrasing shows that oftentimes people aren't even sure of their real opinion.  There's no perfect phrasing anyway -- After all, ballot measures themselves have varying language.

Even in hard science, complete control for variables oftentimes is impossible.  The presence of subjectivity in science is not alone enough to make it "unscientific"; it certainly isn't enough to make information inherently useless.

Self-reporting surveys are inherently flawed, especially on hot button issues in the face of propaganda and violence from those pushing an agenda on the issue. (White powder sent to mormon temples, assaults, death threats, boycotts, fines, ect...)

There may well be pressures that cause people to self-report inaccurately -- Social desirability, fear, anxiety about being challenge, plenty of things enter the equation.  You can establish a gap between the polling on the issue and the actual results.  That's actually relatively easy to do, even if you can never tell how big the gap really is.  But we agree with you that the gap exists, and it tends to overestimate gay rights support modestly.  Are you trying to make a further point?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Joe Republic on December 03, 2011, 12:31:49 am
It is actually rather refreshing to see CARL taking the radically reactionary position on an issue other than immigration for once.

Why the apostrophes, CARL?

There's a a quotation attributed to Abraham Lincoln that asserts that calling a tail a leg is simply false.

'Gay marriage' is a definitional falsity.

How so?

Still waiting for an answer to this.  How is the term 'gay marriage' invalid, CARL?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: milhouse24 on December 03, 2011, 09:07:55 pm
I think Marriage certificates should be given to pregnant women in order to compel their Male Lovers to provide child support. 

In any other instance of marriage besides pregnancy, is a superficial and unnecessary government intrusion meant to prevent men from screwing around and protect outdated monogamy. 

As a general health issue, anal intercourse is dangerous and has higher rates of HIV and STD transmission.  If the government should regulate anything, it should outlaw anal intercourse and place anal intercourse as sodomy. 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: memphis on December 03, 2011, 09:41:17 pm
I think Marriage certificates should be given to pregnant women in order to compel their Male Lovers to provide child support. 
You want to force people into marriage? Just FYI, if two people are married, then there's typically no need for child support. It's when they're not married that you typically see court orders forcing men (and very rarely women) to pay child support.
While we're dictating our desires for legalities and parenthood, I very much want to see a mandatory DNA test before any man can be listed as a father on a birth certificate. I don't care if the couple is married or not. Men have a right to know, and having to ask for such a delicate thing is an undue burden.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: milhouse24 on December 04, 2011, 12:00:16 am
I think Marriage certificates should be given to pregnant women in order to compel their Male Lovers to provide child support. 
You want to force people into marriage? Just FYI, if two people are married, then there's typically no need for child support. It's when they're not married that you typically see court orders forcing men (and very rarely women) to pay child support.
While we're dictating our desires for legalities and parenthood, I very much want to see a mandatory DNA test before any man can be listed as a father on a birth certificate. I don't care if the couple is married or not. Men have a right to know, and having to ask for such a delicate thing is an undue burden.
I'm sure there are financial benefits to legalized gay unions, but I don't know them right now?
Basically, marriage is a financial contract between the 2 spouses, and in the event of a divorce the richer spouse pays alimony to the poorer spouse. 
Personally, I think freedom is being able to do whatever you want away from government regulation, that can be screwing many women or screwing as many men as you want.
However, marriage becomes a convenient government contract when it comes to regulating the responsibilities for biological children.  The traditional reasoning for a marriage contract was financial arrangement and a sexual arrangement, leading to the birth of biological offspring, which the birth parents are legally bound to care and provide for.  I don't really care if straight or gay couples want to live in monogamy, with or without government oversight.  But I do want to legally strengthen the laws regarding biological parenthood and responsibility.  For instance, in the black community, black fathers don't take financial responsibility for their children and have many children out of wedlock.  This is perhaps freedom at its finest display. 
However, the government has a legal interest and legal authority to make sure every child is financially provided for.  It might not change anything in black culture, but I would like to see a marriage certificate as a default obligation to common-law marriages with children. 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on December 04, 2011, 01:15:19 am
What I find most amusing of CARL's denial of the trend here is he once tried to argue there was a "trend" toward the Republicans in a congressional special election because the Republican candidate got more votes than a Republican did in the previous election...where the Republicans received zero votes because there was no Republican candidate.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Verily on December 04, 2011, 01:20:56 am
I think Marriage certificates should be given to pregnant women in order to compel their Male Lovers to provide child support. 
You want to force people into marriage? Just FYI, if two people are married, then there's typically no need for child support. It's when they're not married that you typically see court orders forcing men (and very rarely women) to pay child support.
While we're dictating our desires for legalities and parenthood, I very much want to see a mandatory DNA test before any man can be listed as a father on a birth certificate. I don't care if the couple is married or not. Men have a right to know, and having to ask for such a delicate thing is an undue burden.
I'm sure there are financial benefits to legalized gay unions, but I don't know them right now?
Basically, marriage is a financial contract between the 2 spouses, and in the event of a divorce the richer spouse pays alimony to the poorer spouse. 

Married couples are taxed preferentially to unmarried couples in the income tax, particularly if they have disparate incomes (if one is a stay-at-home parent). Additionally, married couples are entitled to increases in certain child support and other family government credits (generally also in their tax payments/refunds). Additionally, there are no estate taxes on transfers between spouses (only applicable to about 0.1% of the population, but still), and no gift taxes on transfers within the marital unit, taxes that unmarried couples must pay.

Furthermore, there are a raft of other, less tangibly economic benefits like hospital visitation rights that are extended to spouses and not to unmarried couples.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on December 04, 2011, 01:27:26 am
The social conservative butthurt on this issue is hilarious. I only wish we had more issues like this to piss them off

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147662/first-time-majority-americans-favor-legal-gay-marriage.aspx

(http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/vqf79nrpfewws7ibh-1u-q.gif)

Obama has been several points less popular than gay marriage for months now.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on December 04, 2011, 01:53:39 pm
The social conservative butthurt on this issue is hilarious. I only wish we had more issues like this to piss them off

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147662/first-time-majority-americans-favor-legal-gay-marriage.aspx

(http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/vqf79nrpfewws7ibh-1u-q.gif)

Obama has been several points less popular than gay marriage for months now.

Barack Obama, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, the War in Afghanistan, the Tea Party, and Occupy Wall Street are all less popular than gay marriage.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: milhouse24 on December 04, 2011, 03:02:28 pm
I think Marriage certificates should be given to pregnant women in order to compel their Male Lovers to provide child support. 
You want to force people into marriage? Just FYI, if two people are married, then there's typically no need for child support. It's when they're not married that you typically see court orders forcing men (and very rarely women) to pay child support.
While we're dictating our desires for legalities and parenthood, I very much want to see a mandatory DNA test before any man can be listed as a father on a birth certificate. I don't care if the couple is married or not. Men have a right to know, and having to ask for such a delicate thing is an undue burden.
I'm sure there are financial benefits to legalized gay unions, but I don't know them right now?
Basically, marriage is a financial contract between the 2 spouses, and in the event of a divorce the richer spouse pays alimony to the poorer spouse. 

Married couples are taxed preferentially to unmarried couples in the income tax, particularly if they have disparate incomes (if one is a stay-at-home parent). Additionally, married couples are entitled to increases in certain child support and other family government credits (generally also in their tax payments/refunds). Additionally, there are no estate taxes on transfers between spouses (only applicable to about 0.1% of the population, but still), and no gift taxes on transfers within the marital unit, taxes that unmarried couples must pay.

Furthermore, there are a raft of other, less tangibly economic benefits like hospital visitation rights that are extended to spouses and not to unmarried couples.
I suppose its okay for gay couples to use the government marriage licenses for financial gain and personal gain, even though I don't see the point of gay marriage oversight.  The reason those marriage laws and marriage benefits exist are to protect the rights of unemployed housewives.  In theory, both gay spouses have the ability to work if they don't have children.  Even if gay spouses have children, the biological parents must pay child support under federal laws.  I don't think gay couples should get tax breaks and skip out of federal and state taxes when those taxes are needed to actually help biological families with biological children for things such as public schools. 

The purpose of these marriage laws are to benefit families with children, and to help households financially support and physically care for underage children.  There is no logical reasoning for gay couples to use government loopholes to cheat the government out of tax dollars and sap financial support to biological families that actually benefit from tax breaks. 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Verily on December 04, 2011, 03:18:08 pm
I think Marriage certificates should be given to pregnant women in order to compel their Male Lovers to provide child support.  
You want to force people into marriage? Just FYI, if two people are married, then there's typically no need for child support. It's when they're not married that you typically see court orders forcing men (and very rarely women) to pay child support.
While we're dictating our desires for legalities and parenthood, I very much want to see a mandatory DNA test before any man can be listed as a father on a birth certificate. I don't care if the couple is married or not. Men have a right to know, and having to ask for such a delicate thing is an undue burden.
I'm sure there are financial benefits to legalized gay unions, but I don't know them right now?
Basically, marriage is a financial contract between the 2 spouses, and in the event of a divorce the richer spouse pays alimony to the poorer spouse.  

Married couples are taxed preferentially to unmarried couples in the income tax, particularly if they have disparate incomes (if one is a stay-at-home parent). Additionally, married couples are entitled to increases in certain child support and other family government credits (generally also in their tax payments/refunds). Additionally, there are no estate taxes on transfers between spouses (only applicable to about 0.1% of the population, but still), and no gift taxes on transfers within the marital unit, taxes that unmarried couples must pay.

Furthermore, there are a raft of other, less tangibly economic benefits like hospital visitation rights that are extended to spouses and not to unmarried couples.
I suppose its okay for gay couples to use the government marriage licenses for financial gain and personal gain, even though I don't see the point of gay marriage oversight.  The reason those marriage laws and marriage benefits exist are to protect the rights of unemployed housewives.

This isn't true. Households in which both spouses work receive equal benefits.

Quote
In theory, both gay spouses have the ability to work if they don't have children.

This is also true of straight spouses.

Quote
Even if gay spouses have children, the biological parents must pay child support under federal laws.

This is false. Biological parents do not have to pay child support, and very few same-sex couples with children receive any kind of child support from biological parents. Most same-sex couples with children either adopted those child or had them through surrogates, where child support is not an issue. Among those few who did not, almost none receive child support.

Quote
I don't think gay couples should get tax breaks and skip out of federal and state taxes when those taxes are needed to actually help biological families with biological children for things such as public schools.

If the point is to subsidize schools, couples without children should pay more taxes regardless of marital status or orientation. That would be arguable (probably idiotic as policy, but internally consistent), but it is not the current system, nor remotely resembling it.

Furthermore, many of the policies I cited, like the estate tax and gift tax, are benefits designed for internal support between spouses rather than support of children. Federal law treats married couples as a single legal unit, regardless of whether they have children or not. The support of children is not even a factor in gift or estate tax. Gifts to children are tax-free regardless as they are considered "support", so no gift tax between spouses provides no benefit at all to children. Additionally, children inheriting are subject to estate tax, regardless of where the money is coming from, so the exemption again is clearly to benefit the spouse and not the children.

Quote
The purpose of these marriage laws are to benefit families with children, and to help households financially support and physically care for underage children.

As above, if this were the case, marriage tax breaks would only benefit families with children. It does not. Even if it did, it would not be an argument against gay couples with children from having marriage benefits. Therefore, either the purpose is not to benefit families with children, in which case your premise is false, and therefore nothing follows from it, or gay couples with children should be allowed to marry while straight couples without children should not be allowed to marry, in which case your premise is true but your conclusion is false.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on December 04, 2011, 04:27:53 pm
Milhouse, do you know there are same-sex couples who have adopted children together or where the biological parent is out of the picture (because of surrogacy or life events)? Do you not see adopted children as getting the same right as biological children?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: milhouse24 on December 04, 2011, 11:19:31 pm
The hospital policies regarding spouses is a private medical issue dealing directly with the Hospital.  If a hospital wanted to allow visitation to a person's lawyer or power of attorney, you can sue to allow your gay spouse to receive that permission. 

My general feeling is that marriage is pointless.  Some people want a marriage license as a legal protection forcing shared property assets, lifetime financial support, alimony, and forced sexual monogamy.

The marriage laws were written to protect women, who took many months or years out of the work force as a result of pregnancy or child-rearing.  Marriage was a legal entity to force financial protection for the women and force their husbands to stick around, instead of leaving town for the women to raise the children alone and in poverty.  Marriage licenses have always been meant to protect the rights of women in biological child-rearing. 

Unmarried Biological parents DO have to pay child support, if the woman asks the court to force the biological father to pay for the child.  I wonder what the lowest monthly payment per child is in the United States?  Even, if the father gives up the parental rights to the child, he may be compelled to pay child support if the child's needs are not met.  In some countries, sperm donors are forced to pay child support to lesbian families. 

The issue of gay adoption and surrogacy is pointless, because a gay couple should adopt children only if they can afford to support them.  In that sense, adopting children is a financial choice, so gay couples should bear full financial responsibility without government support. 

Marriage Licenses are seen as a government regulation of biological reproduction in order to legally protect the rights of mothers and their biological children.  The government has an interest in protecting the rights of biological children, who may or may not have been born out of wedlock, and to ensure that the biological parents fulfill their legal responsibilities. 

I don't condone these tax breaks for the estate tax and the gift tax if childless straight or gay couples are merely seeking to not pay taxes.  Its an American right to pay taxes, and if gay or straight couples are abusing these loopholes, then these tax loopholes should be closed.  Why would a childless spouse want to hide assets from govt taxes?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on December 05, 2011, 09:10:07 am
Marriage Licenses are seen as a government regulation of biological reproduction in order to legally protect the rights of mothers and their biological children. 

No, they aren't. That's why there is no procreative test for marriage and why plenty of couples that are incapable of having children are happily wedded every year. This argument has been used every time there's a court case about same-sex marriage and it always falters on the fact that loads of senior citizens and infertile people get married and that is cause for celebration, and also that same-sex couples have kids.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CaDan on December 05, 2011, 03:15:23 pm
Quote
No, they aren't. That's why there is no procreative test for marriage and why plenty of couples that are incapable of having children are happily wedded every year. This argument has been used every time there's a court case about same-sex marriage and it always falters on the fact that loads of senior citizens and infertile people get married and that is cause for celebration, and also that same-sex couples have kids.

Fail.

Baker v. Nelson recognized the procreative nature of marriage, and like it or not, Baker v. Nelson is the LAW OF THE LAND. (Dismissal for want of a substantial federal question constitutes a decision on the merits, which binds lower courts on the issues presented in the jurisdictional statement.)

Second, other decisions such as Anderson v. King County and Hernandez v. Robles recognized the procreative nature of marriage as a legitimate reason for ensuring that it was not redefined by homosexuals.

Your assertion is a lie.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on December 05, 2011, 03:39:24 pm
Oh, hey, I genuinely didn't know about that court case from 1970. I've only thought about recent litigation, but something that predates Bowers by 15 years and even the vaguest possibility of same-sex marriage by 25 to 30 is going to look like a museum piece and have dated arguments, even if it is the federal precedent because SCOTUS hasn't ruled on SSM yet.

You are correct, some state court judges haven't thrown out the argument, but it's shot full of holes for the reasons I mentioned. Those judges generally have to shut their minds to the fact that many same-sex couples raise children, and also that no marriage law today in the U.S. tests procreation or excludes obviously infertile couples. How do you address that inconsistency.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: milhouse24 on December 05, 2011, 03:40:18 pm
Milhouse, do you know there are same-sex couples who have adopted children together or where the biological parent is out of the picture (because of surrogacy or life events)? Do you not see adopted children as getting the same right as biological children?

Adoptive parents and legal guardians do have rights over their legally adopted children.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: milhouse24 on December 05, 2011, 03:47:59 pm
Marriage Licenses are seen as a government regulation of biological reproduction in order to legally protect the rights of mothers and their biological children. 

No, they aren't. That's why there is no procreative test for marriage and why plenty of couples that are incapable of having children are happily wedded every year. This argument has been used every time there's a court case about same-sex marriage and it always falters on the fact that loads of senior citizens and infertile people get married and that is cause for celebration, and also that same-sex couples have kids.

My point as I've stated again is that a Marriage License is pointless if you take away the issue of biological procreation.  Then the marriage issue becomes a financial issue and property rights.  If your objective is to promote tax evasion for gay couples, social security scamming, health insurance scamming.  Essentially marriage licenses are a scam if used in that regard, and gay marriage becomes a scam if used for financial security. 

Here is a common question posed to women:  How does a woman grow her investment portfolio?
Answer: Marry a rich man.

Marriage has been used in the past and in the present as a financial investment for women.  Marriage is a pointless ceremony that has become outdated and unnecessary.  It is a tool used by weak women to climb out of poverty when they can't do it themselves.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on December 05, 2011, 04:00:05 pm
Marriage has been used in the past and in the present as a financial investment for women.  Marriage is a pointless ceremony that has become outdated and unnecessary.  It is a tool used by weak women to climb out of poverty when they can't do it themselves.

This post is sad.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: nclib on December 05, 2011, 07:04:15 pm
I doubt marriage was ever intended for the protection of women, given that women were expected to summit to their husbands, and if/when they chose careers, they were taken less seriously than men.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: milhouse24 on December 05, 2011, 08:22:29 pm
I doubt marriage was ever intended for the protection of women, given that women were expected to summit to their husbands, and if/when they chose careers, they were taken less seriously than men.

This brings back to my issue and focus on child support and child care.  Marriage was one of the effective legal methods to compel a husband to stay with a woman and their children.
For instance, how is a pregnant woman supposed to work full time?  In the US, women are given at least 6 months of paid maternity leave, but is 6 months of wages enough for a single mom? 

Are you familiar with the term Bastard Children?  Which means that they are fatherless children. 

Its unfortunate, but there are men and fathers who run away from their families and their responsibilities to provide and care for their biological children. 

Instead of focusing on marriage licenses to gay couples, the marriage rate will still decline and in the next decade there will be far less married people, the government should focus on improving child support to bastard children. 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on December 05, 2011, 08:36:33 pm
Quote
how is a pregnant woman supposed to work full time?

Hrm? Many do work full time until the last month.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on December 05, 2011, 08:38:57 pm
I doubt marriage was ever intended for the protection of women, given that women were expected to summit to their husbands, and if/when they chose careers, they were taken less seriously than men.

This brings back to my issue and focus on child support and child care.  Marriage was one of the effective legal methods to compel a husband to stay with a woman and their children.
For instance, how is a pregnant woman supposed to work full time?  In the US, women are given at least 6 months of paid maternity leave, but is 6 months of wages enough for a single mom? 

Are you familiar with the term Bastard Children?  Which means that they are fatherless children. 

Its unfortunate, but there are men and fathers who run away from their families and their responsibilities to provide and care for their biological children. 

Instead of focusing on marriage licenses to gay couples, the marriage rate will still decline and in the next decade there will be far less married people, the government should focus on improving child support to bastard children. 

Serious question: Have you ever met an adult human female?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: milhouse24 on December 05, 2011, 08:48:35 pm
Quote
how is a pregnant woman supposed to work full time?

Hrm? Many do work full time until the last month.

What about child care?  Is anyone going to stay home to watch infants?  The issue of gay marriage is a red herring, gay marriage is a non-issue that affects nothing consequential, except for the previously mentioned tax evasion scams, social security scams, health insurance scams.  Society will not be better or worse in legalizing gay marriage, except for the tax evasion and increase in risky anal intercourse for infectious diseases. 

The real issue will how to care for bastard children trough socialized child care, when men no longer accept their ethical responsibilities as fathers.  Liberals and Feminists seem to forget about the importance of fatherhood, in their quest to break down traditional society. 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: milhouse24 on December 05, 2011, 08:50:36 pm
I doubt marriage was ever intended for the protection of women, given that women were expected to summit to their husbands, and if/when they chose careers, they were taken less seriously than men.

This brings back to my issue and focus on child support and child care.  Marriage was one of the effective legal methods to compel a husband to stay with a woman and their children.
For instance, how is a pregnant woman supposed to work full time?  In the US, women are given at least 6 months of paid maternity leave, but is 6 months of wages enough for a single mom? 

Are you familiar with the term Bastard Children?  Which means that they are fatherless children. 

Its unfortunate, but there are men and fathers who run away from their families and their responsibilities to provide and care for their biological children. 

Instead of focusing on marriage licenses to gay couples, the marriage rate will still decline and in the next decade there will be far less married people, the government should focus on improving child support to bastard children. 

Serious question: Have you ever met an adult human female?

Feminists can in theory take care of themselves as single mothers, right?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on December 05, 2011, 08:56:05 pm
I doubt marriage was ever intended for the protection of women, given that women were expected to summit to their husbands, and if/when they chose careers, they were taken less seriously than men.

This brings back to my issue and focus on child support and child care.  Marriage was one of the effective legal methods to compel a husband to stay with a woman and their children.
For instance, how is a pregnant woman supposed to work full time?  In the US, women are given at least 6 months of paid maternity leave, but is 6 months of wages enough for a single mom? 

Are you familiar with the term Bastard Children?  Which means that they are fatherless children. 

Its unfortunate, but there are men and fathers who run away from their families and their responsibilities to provide and care for their biological children. 

Instead of focusing on marriage licenses to gay couples, the marriage rate will still decline and in the next decade there will be far less married people, the government should focus on improving child support to bastard children. 

Serious question: Have you ever met an adult human female?

Feminists can in theory take care of themselves as single mothers, right?

Parse error, I think you're trying to subtly imply that my revulsion at your understanding of gender relations entails a rejection of the idea that marriages should be stable and are the best environment for raising children (which, by the way, is part of why the institution should be extended to gay couples, who are going to be raising children regardless), but I'm not certain.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on December 05, 2011, 09:34:35 pm
This isn't a debate thread about same-sex marriage, to be honest. I expect new polls whenever I see there's a new post, not stupid arguments against the issue.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: RI on December 07, 2011, 04:42:48 pm
Montana: 37-51 against

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/montana-miscellaneous-poll.html (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/montana-miscellaneous-poll.html)

Doing slightly better in Montana than in Pennsylvania.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=2;10;4&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on December 07, 2011, 05:54:03 pm
Montana: 37-51 against

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/montana-miscellaneous-poll.html (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/montana-miscellaneous-poll.html)

Damn look at the age cross-tab:

18-45 (I assume they meant 18-29): 69% legal, 24% illegal, 6% not sure
30-45: 40% legal, 49% illegal, 11% not sure
45-65: 34% legal, 52% illegal, 13% not sure
>65: 26% legal, 61% illegal, 13% not sure

It's only a matter of time Montana!

I want to see Idaho's numbers now


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nutmeg on December 07, 2011, 06:28:34 pm
Doing slightly better in Montana than in Pennsylvania.

Montana: 37-51 against

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/montana-miscellaneous-poll.html (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/montana-miscellaneous-poll.html)

Damn look at the age cross-tab:

18-45 (I assume they meant 18-29): 69% legal, 24% illegal, 6% not sure
30-45: 40% legal, 49% illegal, 11% not sure
45-65: 34% legal, 52% illegal, 13% not sure
>65: 26% legal, 61% illegal, 13% not sure

It's only a matter of time Montana!

I am starting to realize that the correlation between age and views on this issue is even stronger than partisan affiliation and views on this issue.  Can we say so with confidence, though?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on December 07, 2011, 07:20:56 pm
Maybe. I don't think 69% of Montanans <29 years old are Democratic, or Democratic-leaning.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: RI on December 07, 2011, 08:06:39 pm
Maybe. I don't think 69% of Montanans <29 years old are Democratic, or Democratic-leaning.

Obama won 61% of them, so not quite.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on December 09, 2011, 12:50:59 pm
North Carolina still hatin:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 30%
Illegal .............................................................. 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State? (Asked of 688 likely primary voters)

Would vote for it - 57%
Would vote against it - 32%
Not sure - 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_12091118.pdf


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: RI on December 09, 2011, 03:29:37 pm
Colorado 47-43 in favor of gay marriage according to PPP.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on December 09, 2011, 03:30:39 pm
New Colorado numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 47%
Illegal .............................................................. 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_12091205.pdf

An improvement compared to 45% legal, 45% illegal, 10% not sure from August 2011.

That's a big shift for 4 months.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nutmeg on December 09, 2011, 04:09:12 pm
That's a big shift for 4 months.

Not really; the margin of error is +/-3.5%.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on December 09, 2011, 04:16:30 pm
That's a big shift for 4 months.

Not really; the margin of error is +/-3.5%.

We really need more polls to accurately see the trend. I'd love to see polls for each state every 6 months on a variety of issues. Before PPP got involved we had even less.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on December 10, 2011, 06:42:51 am
(CO & NC)

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=2;10;4&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=2;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on December 20, 2011, 06:30:08 pm
New New Mexico numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 45%
Illegal .............................................................. 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_1219424.pdf

Last NM results from June 2011: 42% legal, 48% illegal, 10% not sure.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=2;10;4&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: milhouse24 on December 20, 2011, 09:40:34 pm
I doubt marriage was ever intended for the protection of women, given that women were expected to summit to their husbands, and if/when they chose careers, they were taken less seriously than men.

This brings back to my issue and focus on child support and child care.  Marriage was one of the effective legal methods to compel a husband to stay with a woman and their children.
For instance, how is a pregnant woman supposed to work full time?  In the US, women are given at least 6 months of paid maternity leave, but is 6 months of wages enough for a single mom? 

Are you familiar with the term Bastard Children?  Which means that they are fatherless children. 

Its unfortunate, but there are men and fathers who run away from their families and their responsibilities to provide and care for their biological children. 

Instead of focusing on marriage licenses to gay couples, the marriage rate will still decline and in the next decade there will be far less married people, the government should focus on improving child support to bastard children. 

Serious question: Have you ever met an adult human female?

Feminists can in theory take care of themselves as single mothers, right?

Parse error, I think you're trying to subtly imply that my revulsion at your understanding of gender relations entails a rejection of the idea that marriages should be stable and are the best environment for raising children (which, by the way, is part of why the institution should be extended to gay couples, who are going to be raising children regardless), but I'm not certain.
I'm just anti-marriage for anyone and everyone.  Men and women and men can co-habitate and raise children together.  Men can adopt non-biological children and have parental rights and guardianship rights.  But the way I look at it, it can be very easy to scam the system to get benefits.  For instance, I would marry a gay millionaire who is very old, just so I could get half his property and inheritance upon his death or divorce. 

As a man, the only way I am going to decide to financially support a wife and children if I know for sure the child is my biological child, and it will take a court-order for government to force me to marry the woman or pay child support. 

An yes, married men pay child support in the form of giving up half their property rights and savings account to feed, house, and clothe his wife and child. 

So, I do support gay marriage, even though I think it is completely stupid and illogical for gay men or anyone else to get married when they are not being forced by the government to financially support their biological children.  I'm also against anal intercourse because I think its dangerous, unhealthy, unlubricated, and spreads stds.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on December 20, 2011, 09:56:41 pm
Political Debate is 5 boards down. Please utilize it.

New Mexico numbers look better than I thought. 45 is probably the ceiling at the moment, though.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CaDan on December 20, 2011, 11:23:12 pm
Those NM numbers from Putrid Propaganda Polling only were achieved after PPP deliberately stacked the poll to get the numbers that they wanted.

Of course, the lefties here don't care about that reality.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CultureKing on December 20, 2011, 11:27:16 pm
Those NM numbers from Putrid Propaganda Polling only were achieved after PPP deliberately stacked the poll to get the numbers that they wanted.

Of course, the lefties here don't care about that reality.

Agreed, there must be a conspiracy.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 21, 2011, 02:27:56 am
Those NM numbers from Putrid Propaganda Polling only were achieved after PPP deliberately stacked the poll to get the numbers that they wanted.

Of course, the lefties here don't care about that reality.

Agreed, there must be a conspiracy.

Not a conspiracy, just PPP producing numbers its clients like:

Well, let’s compare the PPP numbers for New Mexico with those from other sources.
PPP asserts that 30% of their respondents are liberals, 30% Moderates and 39% conservatives (Q. 16) 

Here’s what Edison (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/) had to say on voter Ideology in New Mexico in 2008:

Liberal               22%
Moderate          44
Conservative    34

According to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx) the breakdown is:

Liberal             21.0%
Moderate        34.3
Conservative  41.2

Here’s the ratio of conservatives to liberals according to the three polls:

PPP                  1.3
Edison             1.5
Gallup              2.0


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on December 21, 2011, 02:59:42 am
Oh, and let’s  look at some national polls the PPP does for the Daily Kos and SEIU, and their idea of the partisan breakout:

Some PPP polls showing Democrats with a nine point advantage (or more) over Republicans this year include:

10/27-30/11
7/21-24/11
5/12-15/11
5/5-8/11
4/7-10/11

The largest Democrat advantage in recent years (going back to 2004) was 7 points in 2008 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1) and zero points in 2010 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on December 21, 2011, 04:23:22 am
Whatever makes you sleep at night.

Although I recommend learning how to lucid dream so you can have a baku come and eat the gay Mexican night terrors. I think we'd all be happier that way, including you.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nutmeg on December 21, 2011, 08:32:14 am
Here’s the ratio of conservatives to liberals according to the three polls:

PPP                  1.3
Edison             1.5
Gallup              2.0

Given these three data points, it looks like Gallup, not PPP, is the outlier.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on December 21, 2011, 08:36:58 am
Gallup also compiles their state data over the course of 1 friggin year.

I wouldn't trust a polling company that collects data by interviewing 1 person from NM each day.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: milhouse24 on December 21, 2011, 12:39:09 pm
Whatever makes you sleep at night.

Although I recommend learning how to lucid dream so you can have a baku come and eat the gay Mexican night terrors. I think we'd all be happier that way, including you.

If you want to support Anal intercourse, then that is your decision.  Ask any woman on the street if they enjoy anal intercourse.  You may think its normal and safe to have anal intercourse but there are some things that the human body can't handle. 

Another important thing that you seem to be forgetting is that it is harder to validate and confirm that a gay marriage is legit.  Scammers will use gay marriage to get whatever they can get from the government including green cards. 

Usually, a marriage clerk can determine if a marriage is legitimate if the woman ends up pregnant with the man's child.  That's why women want to be married, because they need a man to help them support a child.  Now, if there is a childless straight couple, government officials will wonder if this is a real marriage or a fake marriage for money or whatever.  Its justifiable for men to get divorced or annulled based on fraud.

Do we really need to be wasting govt dollars in determining whether gay couples are legit or fraudulent?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on December 21, 2011, 01:35:28 pm
rofl. Are you for real?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Link on December 21, 2011, 01:35:54 pm
If you want to support Anal intercourse, then that is your decision.  Ask any woman on the street if they enjoy anal intercourse.  You may think its normal and safe to have anal intercourse but there are some things that the human body can't handle. 

Ahhh... I love reminiscing about the halcyon days of my youth.  Despite my rants about the adolescents that populate this forum I do actually enjoy experiencing the quaint naivete from time to time.  FYI young buck the way I roll its the women I've dated that have requested anal intercourse.  And yes some of them were very far right wing.  Once you put away the porn and get out into the real world you are going to get eaten alive.  To this day every time I meet a new woman I have no idea what to expect.  It's wild.

When your dad is hitting the Schlitz at the dinner table and regurgitating what Rush Limbaugh told him to say it's okay to put him on ignore every once in awhile.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on December 21, 2011, 06:27:49 pm
Whatever makes you sleep at night.

Although I recommend learning how to lucid dream so you can have a baku come and eat the gay Mexican night terrors. I think we'd all be happier that way, including you.

If you want to support Anal intercourse, then that is your decision.  Ask any woman on the street if they enjoy anal intercourse.  You may think its normal and safe to have anal intercourse but there are some things that the human body can't handle. 

Actually I have no specific opinion of anal sex one way or another, and my opinion of sex in general is much more negative than you might think.

The rest of your post is, of course, hilarious.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on December 21, 2011, 11:22:53 pm
Actually I have no specific opinion of anal sex one way or another, and my opinion of sex in general is much more negative than you might think.

Do tell.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on December 21, 2011, 11:34:33 pm
Actually I have no specific opinion of anal sex one way or another, and my opinion of sex in general is much more negative than you might think.

Do tell.

I don't like it, and I intellectually understand but am viscerally baffled by why other people do so much. I think there are all sorts of really creepy power dynamics bound up in it and I have serious concerns about the philosophical possibility of respecting the agency of a sexual partner.

I am equal-opportunity about all of this with regards to gender.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: tpfkaw on December 21, 2011, 11:44:46 pm
The virginity on this page is killing me.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on December 21, 2011, 11:47:25 pm
I don't like it, and I intellectually understand but am viscerally baffled by why other people do so much.

You don't like it personally or you don't like the idea that other people are doing it? In either case, why?

I think there are all sorts of really creepy power dynamics bound up in it

Power dynamics like what? People of different ages or positions of authority (boss-employee, teacher-student, etc)?

I have serious concerns about the philosophical possibility of respecting the agency of a sexual partner.

I am equal-opportunity about all of this with regards to gender.

? What, like you're not sure it would actually be consenting? Not sure I understand.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on December 22, 2011, 12:26:01 am
I don't like it, and I intellectually understand but am viscerally baffled by why other people do so much.

You don't like it personally or you don't like the idea that other people are doing it? In either case, why?

Both. In order, because I don't swing that (i.e. any) way and for reasons below.

It should be mentioned that I am attracted to girls (or people whose gender peformativity is female) aesthetically and in terms of relationships; it's just  my interest in some parts of their anatomy that's lacking.

Quote
I think there are all sorts of really creepy power dynamics bound up in it

Power dynamics like what? People of different ages or positions of authority (boss-employee, teacher-student, etc)?

The creation of a power tension between different people in general. I actually have a somewhat more positive attitude towards BDSM because I feel it's more honest about this. There are philosophical reasons for this that might take a little while to explain; some of the reasons are, in my case, religious, but they don't necessarily have to be religious to make sense (since I've elucidated them in my Philosophy Club to not entirely negative or confused response and I'm my Philosophy Club's token religious-in-a-remotely-conventional-way person). So I guess my explanation to you would depend on the extent to which you're interested in my interpretation of what power is and how it works in this case.

Quote
I have serious concerns about the philosophical possibility of respecting the agency of a sexual partner.

I am equal-opportunity about all of this with regards to gender.

? What, like you're not sure it would actually be consenting? Not sure I understand.

I'm not sure consent is entirely possible on the most basic level, but it is for all practical intents and purposes, so my main concern actually has to do with 'mak[ing] the loved person an Object of appetite' (quoting Immanuel Kant here). Obviously there are ways to ameliorate this. I'm not one of those crazies who insists that anybody who has non-procreative sex is automatically evil. But my understanding of sexuality does come from both a kind of baffled and a kind of unnerved place.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on December 22, 2011, 01:09:47 am
The creation of a power tension between different people in general. I actually have a somewhat more positive attitude towards BDSM because I feel it's more honest about this. There are philosophical reasons for this that might take a little while to explain; some of the reasons are, in my case, religious, but they don't necessarily have to be religious to make sense (since I've elucidated them in my Philosophy Club to not entirely negative or confused response and I'm my Philosophy Club's token religious-in-a-remotely-conventional-way person). So I guess my explanation to you would depend on the extent to which you're interested in my interpretation of what power is and how it works in this case.

I'm willing to read your interpretation.

I'm not sure consent is entirely possible on the most basic level, but it is for all practical intents and purposes, so my main concern actually has to do with 'mak[ing] the loved person an Object of appetite' (quoting Immanuel Kant here). Obviously there are ways to ameliorate this. I'm not one of those crazies who insists that anybody who has non-procreative sex is automatically evil. But my understanding of sexuality does come from both a kind of baffled and a kind of unnerved place.

Googles (http://books.google.com/books?id=4HdpN1xnl5EC&pg=PA200&lpg=PA200&dq=%27making+the+loved+person+an+Object+of+appetite%27&source=bl&ots=vDWZOMgnx7&sig=3bMJZyKqrGSzqAdXYy30tuQ_azI&hl=en&sa=X&ei=AcLyTofqAqWUiQLZ6tSGDg&sqi=2&ved=0CCMQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=%27making%20the%20loved%20person%20an%20Object%20of%20appetite%27&f=false)

So basically sex is wrong because people do it out of physical appetite and this appetite disregards the nonphysical aspect of a person (just having sex with a body) so that you're just having sex with a thing/object?

Meh, that seems pretty weird. There is obviously a person inside the body which is why you can rape a person but not rape a sex doll and I'm sure plenty of people have sex with not just the intention of making themselves feel good, but making their partner feel good too.

Even then, I don't see why wanting to do something purely for physical reasons is wrong. So what if you and the person you're having sex with are just using your bodies as a thing to make yourselves feel good?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on December 22, 2011, 02:24:12 am
The creation of a power tension between different people in general. I actually have a somewhat more positive attitude towards BDSM because I feel it's more honest about this. There are philosophical reasons for this that might take a little while to explain; some of the reasons are, in my case, religious, but they don't necessarily have to be religious to make sense (since I've elucidated them in my Philosophy Club to not entirely negative or confused response and I'm my Philosophy Club's token religious-in-a-remotely-conventional-way person). So I guess my explanation to you would depend on the extent to which you're interested in my interpretation of what power is and how it works in this case.

I'm willing to read your interpretation.

I have a written essay on this subject, but be warned, it also touches on...several other issues, including gender identity, faith and how it's distinct from religion, Marxist analysis of religion, and the concept of 'alterity' in extremely dense (and condensed) philosophese  (for example, I define atheism as 'the faith that the first apparent character of the world within the confines of logical perception persists beyond those confines'). I'll see if I can go through it and take out excerpts to maybe make a thread on the Religion & Philosophy board. I'm actually reasonably proud of the essay, for what it is.

Quote
I'm not sure consent is entirely possible on the most basic level, but it is for all practical intents and purposes, so my main concern actually has to do with 'mak[ing] the loved person an Object of appetite' (quoting Immanuel Kant here). Obviously there are ways to ameliorate this. I'm not one of those crazies who insists that anybody who has non-procreative sex is automatically evil. But my understanding of sexuality does come from both a kind of baffled and a kind of unnerved place.

Googles (http://books.google.com/books?id=4HdpN1xnl5EC&pg=PA200&lpg=PA200&dq=%27making+the+loved+person+an+Object+of+appetite%27&source=bl&ots=vDWZOMgnx7&sig=3bMJZyKqrGSzqAdXYy30tuQ_azI&hl=en&sa=X&ei=AcLyTofqAqWUiQLZ6tSGDg&sqi=2&ved=0CCMQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=%27making%20the%20loved%20person%20an%20Object%20of%20appetite%27&f=false)

So basically sex is wrong because people do it out of physical appetite and this appetite disregards the nonphysical aspect of a person (just having sex with a body) so that you're just having sex with a thing/object?

Meh, that seems pretty weird. There is obviously a person inside the body which is why you can rape a person but not rape a sex doll and I'm sure plenty of people have sex with not just the intention of making themselves feel good, but making their partner feel good too.

That's exactly the sort of thing that I was referring to when I said that there are ways to ameliorate it and that I'm not a crazy person about this belief. Kant's more hardline on this than I am even though theoretically there's not all that much daylight between me and him.

Quote
Even then, I don't see why wanting to do something purely for physical reasons is wrong. So what if you and the person you're having sex with are just using your bodies as a thing to make yourselves feel good?

This is a function of one's fundamental view of what the physical universe is here for and I suspect probably isn't the sort of thing that can carry over from one view on that to another. The best I can give you is that my view of the physical universe is intensively symbolic, if that makes any sense (again, this sort of view doesn't necessarily have to be religious symbolism per se, even though a lot of it is in my case).


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Snowguy716 on December 22, 2011, 02:35:40 am
If you want to support Anal intercourse, then that is your decision. Ask any woman on the street if they enjoy anal intercourse.  You may think its normal and safe to have anal intercourse but there are some things that the human body can't handle.

Ahhh... I love reminiscing about the halcyon days of my youth.  Despite my rants about the adolescents that populate this forum I do actually enjoy experiencing the quaint naivete from time to time.  FYI young buck the way I roll its the women I've dated that have requested anal intercourse.  And yes some of them were very far right wing.  Once you put away the porn and get out into the real world you are going to get eaten alive.  To this day every time I meet a new woman I have no idea what to expect.  It's wild.

When your dad is hitting the Schlitz at the dinner table and regurgitating what Rush Limbaugh told him to say it's okay to put him on ignore every once in awhile.

I ask women on the street if they enjoy anal intercourse all the time.  Most of the time they say no... but every once in a great while, you'll get one who says yes.  And that's when you realize you've just experienced something very special.

But... seriously?  I actually find the completely hardwired misogyny in this guy to be fascinating.  I mean... either he's a very accomplished and subtle troll... or he really believes this crap.

And if he'd spend more time asking women if they enjoyed anal intercourse and less time thinking *for* them... he might actually learn a thing or two.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on December 22, 2011, 02:38:31 am
The highly formal and ideologically-charged discussion of anal sex in this thread is relevant to my sense of humor.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: opebo on December 22, 2011, 03:36:15 am
I think there are all sorts of really creepy power dynamics bound up in it

The creation of a power tension between different people in general. I actually have a somewhat more positive attitude towards BDSM because I feel it's more honest about this. There are philosophical reasons for this that might take a little while to explain; some of the reasons are, in my case, religious, but they don't necessarily have to be religious to make sense (since I've elucidated them in my Philosophy Club to not entirely negative or confused response and I'm my Philosophy Club's token religious-in-a-remotely-conventional-way person). So I guess my explanation to you would depend on the extent to which you're interested in my interpretation of what power is and how it works in this case.

But isn't the fact that you find these power dynamics to be 'creepy' the heart of your objection?  I mean, you may or may not have a point about the dynamics, but your value judgment regarding them is purely arbitrary.

Quote
I have serious concerns about the philosophical possibility of respecting the agency of a sexual partner.

I am equal-opportunity about all of this with regards to gender.

I'm not sure consent is entirely possible on the most basic level, but it is for all practical intents and purposes, so my main concern actually has to do with 'mak[ing] the loved person an Object of appetite' (quoting Immanuel Kant here). Obviously there are ways to ameliorate this. I'm not one of those crazies who insists that anybody who has non-procreative sex is automatically evil. But my understanding of sexuality does come from both a kind of baffled and a kind of unnerved place.

I think you are somewhat mixed up due to the notion of 'love', which should rightly have nothing to do with sex.  Think of sex not so much as a highly specific desire for a particular person or objectification of that person, but rather as a casual and anonymous though very necessary and important personal service - like massage, chiropractic, or dentistry.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on December 22, 2011, 03:45:05 am
I think there are all sorts of really creepy power dynamics bound up in it

The creation of a power tension between different people in general. I actually have a somewhat more positive attitude towards BDSM because I feel it's more honest about this. There are philosophical reasons for this that might take a little while to explain; some of the reasons are, in my case, religious, but they don't necessarily have to be religious to make sense (since I've elucidated them in my Philosophy Club to not entirely negative or confused response and I'm my Philosophy Club's token religious-in-a-remotely-conventional-way person). So I guess my explanation to you would depend on the extent to which you're interested in my interpretation of what power is and how it works in this case.

But isn't the fact that you find these power dynamics to be 'creepy' the heart of your objection?  I mean, you may or may not have a point about the dynamics, but your value judgment regarding them is purely arbitrary.

It's not arbitrary in the context of my other beliefs, which find other-than-explicit, other-than-broadly-social individual power tensions between people (which aren't necessarily the same thing as hierarchy, though obviously they tend to intersect) inherently problematic. I'm sure you can to an extent empathize with this, since you see better than most (even if you're a little...odd in your approach to it) the way civilization as it presently exists is made mostly or entirely of exploitative power dynamics. Imagine the problems with that transferred to a relationship between two (or slightly more) individuals and you have roughly how I look at sexuality, or at least, the way sexuality is done in most of our society.

Quote
Quote
I have serious concerns about the philosophical possibility of respecting the agency of a sexual partner.

I am equal-opportunity about all of this with regards to gender.

I'm not sure consent is entirely possible on the most basic level, but it is for all practical intents and purposes, so my main concern actually has to do with 'mak[ing] the loved person an Object of appetite' (quoting Immanuel Kant here). Obviously there are ways to ameliorate this. I'm not one of those crazies who insists that anybody who has non-procreative sex is automatically evil. But my understanding of sexuality does come from both a kind of baffled and a kind of unnerved place.

I think you are somewhat mixed up due to the notion of 'love', which should rightly have nothing to do with sex.  Think of sex not so much as a highly specific desire for a particular person or objectification of that person, but rather as a casual and anonymous though very necessary and important personal service - like massage, chiropractic, or dentistry.

If you please, I'd rather not, since that makes the problem worse, not better, in my thinking (as in, thinking of sex that way makes me almost entirely unable to understand why it's a thing, rather than able with some difficulty since I don't personally swing any way worth mentioning). I...to a great extent I think there's inherently something serious and personal about union of bodies on that level. Being very physically receptive with unfamiliar people unnerves me, personally, even in non-sexual contexts, and in the case of sex that enervation gets to the point of actually having normative ethical beliefs about the matter, since it plays back into the power dynamics and since even a non-loved person is still a person. So even if it's not highly specific or unique to one or even a few people it is still what it is. The goal should be to cultivate love (of whatever kind) wherever possible and the role of sex in that is, as you admit, limited; I happen to think that's more prejudicial to the position of sex than to that of love.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on December 24, 2011, 10:20:03 pm
New Virginia numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 34%
Illegal .............................................................. 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_VA_1222.pdf

Last VA PPP results from July 2011: 35% legal, 52% illegal, 14% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=2;10;4&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on December 24, 2011, 11:02:42 pm
No change.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on December 25, 2011, 02:49:39 am
New Pennsylvania numbers:

Asked of any woman on the street: Do you enjoy anal intercourse?

Yes .......................................................... 2%
No ........................................................... 5%
Get the hell away from me, you creep .... 93%

Adding this to the map we can see that there is still a clear national trend toward "get the hell away from me, you creep." Bad news for President Obama.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=1;9;9&AK=1;3;9&AZ=1;11;9&AR=0;6;9&CA=1;55;9&CO=1;9;9&CT=1;7;9&DE=1;3;9&DC=1;3;7&FL=1;29;9&GA=1;16;9&HI=0;4;9&ID=0;4;9&IL=1;20;9&IN=1;11;9&IA=0;6;9&KS=0;6;9&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=1;10;9&MA=1;11;8&MI=1;16;9&MN=1;10;9&MS=1;6;9&MO=1;10;9&MT=0;3;9&NV=1;6;8&NH=1;4;9&NJ=1;14;9&NM=1;5;9&NY=1;29;8&NC=1;15;9&ND=0;3;9&OH=1;18;9&OK=0;7;9&OR=1;7;9&PA=1;20;9&RI=0;4;9&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;9&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;9&UT=1;6;9&VT=1;3;9&VA=1;13;9&WA=1;12;9&WV=0;5;9&WI=1;10;9&WY=0;3;9&ME=1;2;9&ME1=1;1;9&ME2=1;1;9&NE=1;2;9&NE1=1;1;9&NE2=1;1;9&NE3=1;1;9)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on December 25, 2011, 07:39:31 pm
New Pennsylvania numbers:

Asked of any woman on the street: Do you enjoy anal intercourse?

Yes .......................................................... 2%
No ........................................................... 5%
Get the hell away from me, you creep .... 93%

Adding this to the map we can see that there is still a clear national trend toward "get the hell away from me, you creep." Bad news for President Obama.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=1;9;9&AK=1;3;9&AZ=1;11;9&AR=0;6;9&CA=1;55;9&CO=1;9;9&CT=1;7;9&DE=1;3;9&DC=1;3;7&FL=1;29;9&GA=1;16;9&HI=0;4;9&ID=0;4;9&IL=1;20;9&IN=1;11;9&IA=0;6;9&KS=0;6;9&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=1;10;9&MA=1;11;8&MI=1;16;9&MN=1;10;9&MS=1;6;9&MO=1;10;9&MT=0;3;9&NV=1;6;8&NH=1;4;9&NJ=1;14;9&NM=1;5;9&NY=1;29;8&NC=1;15;9&ND=0;3;9&OH=1;18;9&OK=0;7;9&OR=1;7;9&PA=1;20;9&RI=0;4;9&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;9&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;9&UT=1;6;9&VT=1;3;9&VA=1;13;9&WA=1;12;9&WV=0;5;9&WI=1;10;9&WY=0;3;9&ME=1;2;9&ME1=1;1;9&ME2=1;1;9&NE=1;2;9&NE1=1;1;9&NE2=1;1;9&NE3=1;1;9)


Jersey should be much lighter. :P


Title: placeholder
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on December 26, 2011, 12:43:30 am
Ask any woman on the street if she supports same-sex marriage...


Title: placeholder
Post by: Tender Branson on December 28, 2011, 09:13:52 am
There are worse places than Alabama or Mississippi for gays though:

Quote
A poll by Lithuanian market research company RIAT claims only 4% of the country supports the introduction of civil partnerships for gay couples.

The Baltic News Agency-commissioned poll says 70% of the population is in favour of some form of legal recognition for relationships outside marriage, but not for gays.

Same-sex marriages are currently banned under the Constitution and the Civil Code, and while civil partnerships are permitted to be introduced by the legislature, the Code states they may only be between a man and a woman.

While 70% of respondents supported straight civil unions and 4% supported straight and gay unions, the remaining quarter did not approve of any non-marriage partnership being recognised by the state.

The Lithuanian Gay League drew attention to a 2011 poll by GfK Custom Research Baltic, which found 56% of respondents were unwilling to live next door to gays. A third said they would not object.

72% of the respondents said they would not be comfortable living next door to someone with AIDS.

A draft law has been tabled at the Lithuanian parliament which would introduce civil partnerships for straight couples, with many similar rules on property to those which apply to marriages.

The country’s Justice Minister reportedly said gay couples could protect their property interests by drawing up a contract when they begin cohabiting and as such do not require additional protections.

1003 Lithuanians aged between 15 and 74 were polled in November for the RIAT research.

http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2011/12/28/poll-claims-only-4-of-lithuanians-support-same-sex-civil-unions


Title: placeholder
Post by: Tender Branson on December 28, 2011, 09:19:18 am
There are worse places than Alabama or Mississippi for gays though:

Quote
A poll by Lithuanian market research company RIAT claims only 4% of the country supports the introduction of civil partnerships for gay couples.

The Baltic News Agency-commissioned poll says 70% of the population is in favour of some form of legal recognition for relationships outside marriage, but not for gays.

Same-sex marriages are currently banned under the Constitution and the Civil Code, and while civil partnerships are permitted to be introduced by the legislature, the Code states they may only be between a man and a woman.

While 70% of respondents supported straight civil unions and 4% supported straight and gay unions, the remaining quarter did not approve of any non-marriage partnership being recognised by the state.

The Lithuanian Gay League drew attention to a 2011 poll by GfK Custom Research Baltic, which found 56% of respondents were unwilling to live next door to gays. A third said they would not object.

72% of the respondents said they would not be comfortable living next door to someone with AIDS.

A draft law has been tabled at the Lithuanian parliament which would introduce civil partnerships for straight couples, with many similar rules on property to those which apply to marriages.

The country’s Justice Minister reportedly said gay couples could protect their property interests by drawing up a contract when they begin cohabiting and as such do not require additional protections.

1003 Lithuanians aged between 15 and 74 were polled in November for the RIAT research.

http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2011/12/28/poll-claims-only-4-of-lithuanians-support-same-sex-civil-unions

Ouch.  Eastern Europe is nowhere near as socially liberal like everyone thought.


Title: placeholder
Post by: Industigy on December 28, 2011, 09:47:12 pm
"Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 45%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%"

Wow.


Title: placeholder
Post by: Badger on December 29, 2011, 09:02:04 am
"Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 45%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%"

Wow.

Um, details? Link?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Badger on December 29, 2011, 09:22:08 pm
Not that this subject isn't valuable, but I think that maybe this thread should be relocked and a new one opened.  And more strictly kept to the goal of looking at the chances of marriage equality passing/failing in various states rather than...whatever the hell we're talking about here.

Really I think milhouse24 should just make his own marriage rant megathread.

^^^^ This. It's been fun with the lulz posts, Milhouse, but kindly take at least a couple weeks break from expounding in this thread on your "unique" theories of marriage and sex. Feel free to post anything you want in the meantime about actual polling on same sex marriages. K?
<Assumes Moderator Voice>

AHEM!

In case I wasn't crystal clear before, I meant it that we need to take a break from the discussion of milhouse's expounding on marriage and sex. I assumed it was equally clear this applied to those commenting on milhousems views in addition to the M man himself.

Kindly give it a couple weeks break or start a separate thread in the Off-Topic board. Otherwise this thread may require being locked again. Thank you.

EDIT: I just noticed the new thread started by milhouse. Thank you! That should end further off topic discourse in this thread for the short term at least.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on December 29, 2011, 09:29:58 pm
EDIT: I just noticed the new thread started by milhouse. Thank you! That should end further off topic discourse in this thread for the short term at least.

I just split the two threads. Keep this one about same-sex marriage polling and state laws; the other one can be used to continue the discussion about the merits of whether gay marriage is equal, lesser, or a sham. Thanks.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: The Mikado on December 29, 2011, 10:08:11 pm
This is a good solution.  A polling thread and a separate discussion thread makes a lot of sense.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Badger on December 30, 2011, 02:13:19 pm
EDIT: I just noticed the new thread started by milhouse. Thank you! That should end further off topic discourse in this thread for the short term at least.

I just split the two threads. Keep this one about same-sex marriage polling and state laws; the other one can be used to continue the discussion about the merits of whether gay marriage is equal, lesser, or a sham. Thanks.

Yeah, i realized that when I opened that thread afterwards. Thanks, partner!

Why wasn't I surpised Milhouse didn't do something so rational? But I digress.....


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on December 30, 2011, 07:44:56 pm

Yeah, i realized that when I opened that thread afterwards. Thanks, partner!

Why wasn't I surpised Milhouse didn't do something so rational? But I digress.....

dude's usin' an awful lot of thinkpower to keep up his smart gay-marriage-is-tax-fraud argument, and as a result, a lot of his other faculties are diminished. we don't want him spreading himself too thin -- he needs to put his thinkin' where his thinkin' can get its best use: on Internet.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on January 12, 2012, 04:18:27 pm
More North Carolina numbers :P

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 32%
Illegal .............................................................. 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?

Would vote for it - 56%
Would vote against it - 34%
Not sure - 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_011212.pdf

NC PPP results from December 2011: 30% legal, 57% illegal, 13% not sure
NC PPP results from late October 2011: 31% legal, 59% illegal, 10% not sure
NC PPP results from early October 2011: 30% legal, 63% illegal, 8% not sure
NC PPP results from September 2011: 31% legal, 61% illegal, 8% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=2;10;4&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: nclib on January 13, 2012, 10:00:21 pm
It's being threatened in NH. (http://www.lgbtqnation.com/2012/01/new-hampshire-legislature-expected-to-vote-on-repealing-gay-marriage-law/)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on January 15, 2012, 11:17:54 am
France:

63% support

http://www.leparisien.fr/societe/les-francais-favorables-au-mariage-gay-14-01-2012-1811697.php


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nice Guy FF on January 19, 2012, 12:31:19 pm
Is it legal in France?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on January 19, 2012, 02:04:10 pm
Is it legal in France?

I think it's Civil Unions in France, but with almost all the rights like what a Marriage has. It's just not called marriage. But somewhere I have read that these Civil Union laws are so liked that even heteros want to register their relationships in these Civil Unions because they don't want it to be a Marriage ... :P

Maybe one of the French posters know more.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on January 19, 2012, 02:09:42 pm
New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

New Jersey voters support 52 - 42 percent allowing same-sex couples to marry, the first time support tops 50 percent.

On related issues, New Jersey voter opinions are:

    65 - 32 percent that same-sex marriage is not a threat to traditional marriage;
    53 - 45 percent that denying same-sex marriage is discrimination;
    69 - 26 percent support for New Jersey's same-sex civil union law;
    66 - 29 percent support allowing same-sex couples to adopt children.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1693

...

Maryland (Gonzales Research):

Maryland voters remain divided on the issue of same-sex marriage. Statewide, 49% favor a law allowing same-sex couples to marry (34% “strongly” favor and 15% “somewhat” favor), while 47% oppose same-sex marriage (38% “strongly” oppose and 9% “somewhat” oppose).

62% of Democrats support same-sex marriage, as do 56% of independents. Among Republicans, 76% are opposed to same-sex marriage.

Whites: 55-43 support
Blacks: 33-60 oppose

http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/polls/Maryland%20Poll%20January%202012.pdf


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on January 19, 2012, 02:40:52 pm
Washington (SurveyUSA):

A new KING 5 poll finds Washington state voters are very divided on the issue of gay marriage.

In a poll of 617 registered voters statewide on landlines and cell phones, KING 5 and SurveyUSA asked specifically, “If the legislature were to approve marriage for same-sex couples, and you were asked to approve or reject the law, how would you vote?”

In our poll, 47% said they would approve the law, while 46% said they would reject it; 7% said they weren’t sure.  The poll has a margin of +/-4%.

Gay marriage supporters are trying to pass a bill through the legislature during this session, but have not secured enough votes in the state senate.  Opponents say if the legislature were to pass a bill, they would collect signatures to force a referendum on the issue.

In the poll, younger voters were far more likely to support gay marriage with 50% saying they’d approve a measure, compared to 39% support among voters over age 65.  While voters in the King, Pierce and Snohomish County region voiced 50% support for a bill, voters in eastern Washington rejected the idea 54% to 38%.

The poll also found women voters more inclined to approve gay marriage (52% to 41% reject) than men (43% to 52% reject).

http://www.king5.com/news/local/KING-5-poll-State-divided-over-gay-marriage-137689348.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on January 19, 2012, 07:55:34 pm
That would be cool if it was passed/upheld in WA, NJ, MD, and ME this year.

P.S. - What about the map?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on January 19, 2012, 08:31:38 pm
That would be cool if it was passed/upheld in WA, NJ, MD, and ME this year.

If the polls are this close and it comes to a referendum in WA, MD and ME - it will probably not pass. Because gay marriage has in history always overpolled. Could pass in NJ though, but even there I'm not sure.

P.S. - What about the map?

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on January 19, 2012, 09:03:02 pm
Could pass in NJ though, but even there I'm not sure.

The problem in New Jersey is that even though support may finally be there in the State Senate -- there are a few Republicans now signed on to support marriage equality -- it still needs to get past Christie's desk. And Christie is a "no" on gay marriage. Maybe (http://www.towleroad.com/2012/01/christieveto.html).

The Star Ledger suggested (http://blog.nj.com/njv_editorial_page/2012/01/gay_marriage_in_nj_could_succe.html) a better road may be to just take it to the voters via constitutional amendment since it's clear a majority of the state supports it. The idea really intrigues me, since it's the usual weapon of the "homosexual marriage haters."


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Username MechaRFK on January 19, 2012, 09:37:36 pm
More prove that women are more progressive then men when it comes to political ideology. I'm guessing most of the male vote are in the 40's-64 and 64-older demographics, though I can't deny that teenage boys still love making politically incorrect statements about referring to one of their dislike as "gay".


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 19, 2012, 09:59:41 pm
That would be cool if it was passed/upheld in WA, NJ, MD, and ME this year.

If the polls are this close and it comes to a referendum in WA, MD and ME - it will probably not pass. Because gay marriage has in history always overpolled. Could pass in NJ though, but even there I'm not sure.

P.S. - What about the map?

Don't forget that laws that pass with 2/3rds are referendum-proof in most states.  There's talk that 2/3rds is in reach in NJ at the moment.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on January 19, 2012, 10:33:36 pm
2/3 is also, of course, veto-proof.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 19, 2012, 11:32:43 pm
So we will almost certainly have WA and MD pass it this year.  Then I wonder who is next?  DE or RI could try.  I'd imagine Hickenlooper will try to pass it in CO in 2013 if the State House falls back under D control.  Same with OR where Kitzhaber is one seat away from a trifecta. 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on January 19, 2012, 11:36:12 pm
I think it's probably more likely to be sustained in NJ than in WA or MD, though I'm actually pretty optimistic about all three.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on January 20, 2012, 12:22:58 am
So we will almost certainly have WA and MD pass it this year.  Then I wonder who is next?  DE or RI could try.  I'd imagine Hickenlooper will try to pass it in CO in 2013 if the State House falls back under D control.  Same with OR where Kitzhaber is one seat away from a trifecta.  

I think it's pretty likely Democrats will break the tie in the OR state house and win the state legislature in 2012 but our situation is a little different than Washington's as our ban on gay marriage is constitutional while Washington's is statutory (probably due to the fact that WA doesn't allow for constitutional initiatives[1] and Democrats controlled one/both chambers of the state legislature and never pushed for a constitutional ban like Republicans are doing in MN/NC after finally winning those state legislatures after decades of split control at the best).

That means their state legislature can legalize it on its own, while in Oregon, any change to the state constitution requires a public referendum which means the only way to legalize it is for an initiative (which groups have said they will push for in 2014 after deciding against it in 2012) or the legislature to vote to refer a repeal.

Anyway, it's probably going to pass here in 2013/2014, especially with the momentum of it passing in Washington. I think Illinois and Hawaii will be considering it soon too even though they just recently passed civil unions but that's what you get when you opt for the half-way measure when the issue is progressing so quickly.

[1]:
(http://i.imgur.com/VDs5s.png)

edit: never mind about the odd-numbered year thing. I'm thinking of some bill that never passed and looking back we've had plenty of measures in odd-numbered years :P


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on January 20, 2012, 01:01:53 am
Hopefully these polls will be moot once Perry v Schwarzenegger (Brown) hits the SCOTUS and hopefully passes. :)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on January 20, 2012, 01:29:28 am
So we will almost certainly have WA and MD pass it this year.  Then I wonder who is next?  DE or RI could try.  I'd imagine Hickenlooper will try to pass it in CO in 2013 if the State House falls back under D control.  Same with OR where Kitzhaber is one seat away from a trifecta. 

California, at the ballot box.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Username MechaRFK on January 20, 2012, 05:13:40 am
Hopefully these polls will be moot once Perry v Schwarzenegger (Brown) hits the SCOTUS and hopefully passes. :)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on January 27, 2012, 06:19:33 pm
New Texas numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 29%
Illegal .............................................................. 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_0125.pdf

TX PPP results from September 2011: 29% legal, 61% illegal, 10% not sure

New Minnesota numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 43%
Illegal .............................................................. 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to provide that only a union of one
man and one woman shall be valid or
recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?

Yes - 48%
No - 44%
Not sure - 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012712.pdf

MN PPP results from May 2011: 46% legal, 45% illegal, 9% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

edit: whoops, typo :P


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on January 28, 2012, 02:45:53 am
I always thought Minnesota was more progressive on these issues ... :(


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on January 28, 2012, 02:54:57 am
I always thought Minnesota was more progressive on these issues ... :(

The Midwest has some considerable cultural traditionalism going, for better or worse.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Dabeav on February 01, 2012, 04:37:07 pm
Just write up a repeal of marriage licensing in your state and let churches take it over.  You can get married at the First Fabulous Church of His Lord in your area.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2012, 06:09:56 pm
Just write up a repeal of marriage licensing in your state and let churches take it over.  You can get married at the First Fabulous Church of His Lord in your area.

???


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on February 03, 2012, 02:17:51 am
Maryland now favors it by a 50-44 margin, according to a new Washington Post poll:

(http://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/01/31/Local-Politics/Graphics/mdsamsex31-g.jpg)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on February 03, 2012, 01:19:42 pm
Those are comparatively very good numbers for African-American Democrats.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nutmeg on February 04, 2012, 01:37:59 pm
Maryland now favors it by a 50-44 margin, according to a new Washington Post poll:

Wow, that's a sea-change since 2004.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: the 2018- The People v. The Pepe on February 05, 2012, 11:29:13 am
I wonder how it is doing in Deleware and Illinois.

This is what I assume at this point-

red- favor gay marriage
blue- oppose gay marriage
dark blue- majority antiabortion
90% blue- a personhood amendment might have enough votes
yellow- favor gay marriage, majority antiabortion




Though what's interesting is that support for gay marriage is now more or less as prevalent as antiabortion sentiment. And though there has been uptick of this Conservative Humanist (basically Huckabee if he wasn't a closet case)  view of being pro-gay and antiabortion, its still the norm to just accept that the law is the law.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;5&AZ=2;11;5&AR=2;6;7&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=1;3;5&DC=1;3;5&FL=2;29;5&GA=2;16;7&HI=1;4;5&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;20;5&IN=2;11;7&IA=2;6;5&KS=2;6;7&KY=2;8;7&LA=2;8;9&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;11;5&MI=2;16;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;10;7&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;6;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;14;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;29;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=2;3;7&OH=2;18;5&OK=2;7;7&OR=1;7;5&PA=2;20;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;9;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=2;11;7&TX=2;38;5&UT=2;6;7&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;12;5&WV=2;5;9&WI=2;10;5&WY=2;3;5&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;5&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;5&NE3=2;1;6)

If Cook County really has real liberals in it, support for gay marriage now surpassed 270 EVs.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on February 07, 2012, 12:05:05 pm
NJ now strongly in favor:

52-34

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/37459b64-548b-4dd0-8ccf-7985264ef9d5.pdf


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on February 07, 2012, 02:42:04 pm
NJ now strongly in favor:

52-34

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/37459b64-548b-4dd0-8ccf-7985264ef9d5.pdf

Congratulations, Phil!


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on February 07, 2012, 05:30:09 pm
NJ now strongly in favor:

52-34

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/37459b64-548b-4dd0-8ccf-7985264ef9d5.pdf

Congratulations, Phil!

Phil and Naso will be very happy together.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nice Guy FF on February 09, 2012, 11:10:06 am
Didn't Washington make it legal?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on February 09, 2012, 07:52:06 pm
Didn't Washington make it legal?

Yeah but there hasn't been any new polls for them yet. I do expect this year's events will shift Washington more in favor.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on February 22, 2012, 06:59:42 pm
New Washington numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal...............................................................49%
Illegal ..............................................................44%
Not sure ..........................................................7%

If there was a referendum on the new law
legalizing same-sex marriage, would you vote
to uphold the law, or would you vote to repeal
it?

Would vote to uphold the law..........................50%
Would vote to repeal it ....................................46%
Not sure .........................................................4%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_222.pdf

WA PPP results from May 2011: 46% legal, 44% illegal, 10% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on February 29, 2012, 04:30:45 pm
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/02/29/4299164/support-for-gay-marriage-takes.html

Quote
A new poll shows gay marriage has arrived in California – in public opinion if not in state lawbooks.

Golden State registered voters now favor same-sex unions by 59 percent to 34 percent, a 25-point gap that is the largest margin of support for the issue in the three-plus decades the Field Poll has been asking the question.

The new Field survey shows support has leapt markedly in the three and a half years since California voters approved Proposition 8, which banned gay marriage, 52.3 percent to 47.7 percent.

(http://media.sacbee.com/smedia/2012/02/28/20/34/Uoo71.Xl.4.gif)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on February 29, 2012, 04:43:13 pm
Those colored bars are of...interesting relative lengths.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on March 01, 2012, 12:39:41 pm
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1712

Quote
March 1, 2012 - New Jersey Same-Sex Marriage Support At New High, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Holding Referendum More Than 2-1

Support for same-sex marriage in New Jersey climbs to a new high, 57 - 37 percent, but voters split 48 - 47 percent on whether Gov. Christopher Christie did the right thing in vetoing same- sex marriage legislation, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Voters support 67 - 28 percent Gov. Christie's proposal to let them decide the same-sex marriage issue by placing it on the ballot for a November referendum, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Support for same-sex marriage is 61 - 32 percent among women and 51 - 44 percent among men. White Catholics support the move 52 - 43 percent while white Protestants are opposed 50 - 42 percent. Voters who attend religious services weekly oppose same-sex marriage 54 - 39 percent while those who attend services less frequently support the measure 66 - 29 percent.

Given three options for same-sex couples:

    47 percent support same-sex marriage;
    34 percent support same-sex civil unions;
    13 percent say there should be no legal recognition.

Quote
TREND: Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?

Mar 1, 2012 - 57% support, 37% oppose, 6% DK/NA
Jan 19, 2012 - 52% support, 42% oppose, 6% DK/NA
Nov 25, 2009 - 46% support, 49% oppose, 6% DK/NA
Apr 23, 2009 - 49% support, 43% oppose, 8% DK/NA
Dec 7, 2006 - 44% support, 50% oppose, 5% DK/NA
Nov 8, 2006 - 41% support, 50% oppose, 9% DK/NA

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on March 01, 2012, 12:45:09 pm
Iowa (Selzer):

A majority of Iowans oppose passage of a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows.

The poll found that 38 percent favor a legislative initiative to pass a constitutional amendment, while 56 percent are against. Six percent aren’t sure.

The findings show little movement on the issue from February 2011, when 40 percent of those surveyed supported passing an amendment, while 54 percent were opposed.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120227/NEWS09/302270022/-1/SPORTS12/Iowa-Poll-Majority-opposes-ban-same-sex-marriage


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on March 01, 2012, 12:46:18 pm
I wonder if this issue is sufficiently polarized that the Iowa question might function as a decent proxy for gauging support of legal SSM.

In other words, I'm wondering if we should put it on the map.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: tpfkaw on March 01, 2012, 12:47:24 pm
While there is a significant "Bradley effect" in gay marriage polling (like I pointed out earlier), I wonder if gay marriage opponents might have to switch their strategy in blue states to ballot measures which simultaneously legalize civil unions and ban gay marriage.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on March 01, 2012, 12:54:21 pm
That would have the added incidental benefit of providing Romer fodder for the idea that gay marriage opponents have nothing better to do than just pick over semantics to create artificial hierarchies for no rational reason.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on March 07, 2012, 04:28:17 pm
New Maine numbers:

In general, do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal...............................................................54%
Illegal ..............................................................41%
Not sure ..........................................................5%

Do you favor a law allowing marriage licenses
for same-sex couples that protects religious
freedom by ensuring no religion or clergy be
required to perform such a marriage in violation
of their religious beliefs?

Yes - 47%
No - 32%
Not sure - 21%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ME_0307.pdf

ME PPP results from October 2011: 51% legal, 42% illegal, 8% not sure
ME PPP results from March 2011: 47% legal, 45% illegal, 8% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: nclib on March 07, 2012, 11:07:15 pm
It appears that the following states haven't passed gay marriage or banned it by constitutional amendment:

Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Delaware
West Virginia
Illinois
Indiana
New Mexico
Wyoming

Any particular reason why these states haven't acted on it.

NC and MN have a ban on the ballot this year.
NJ legislature passed gay marriage, but was vetoed.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ottermax on March 08, 2012, 03:18:33 am
Delaware and Illinois legalized civil unions recently.

West Virginia and New Mexico are probably examples of Democratic controlled legislatures stalling, but not trying to pass anything for fear of voter retaliation (WV) or divided party control (NM).

PA is probably just an issue of a divided electorate and maybe it's difficult to do initiatives there?

RI is in the process of legalizing same-sex marriage, but the Senate president or House president keeps blocking it.

Wyoming tried to pass an amendment to ban it, but it failed somewhere in the legislature.

No idea what's going on in Indiana.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: tpfkaw on March 08, 2012, 10:46:51 am
I highly doubt gay marriage would pass in WV even if legislators voted their conscience.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on March 08, 2012, 02:19:23 pm
Maryland (PPP):

52-44 for gay marriage in a Nov. referendum

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/blog/bal-poll-shows-slim-support-for-gay-marriage-20120308,0,3650775.story?track=rss


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CaDan on March 08, 2012, 03:58:03 pm
LOL!!!

Push poll commissioned by homosexual activists. Even the far-left Post says its the "rosiest" picture yet, as normal polls have this 50-50.

OF COURSE ITS ROSY! It's a push poll.

Got to love that spin. Goes to show that PPP is nothing more than a propaganda outfit.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on March 08, 2012, 04:00:17 pm
LOL!!!

Push poll commissioned by homosexual activists. Even the far-left Post says, its the "rosiest" picture yet.

OF COURSE! It's a push poll.

Got to love that spin. Goes to show that PPP is nothing more than a propaganda outfit.

How did they word the push questions?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: morgieb on March 08, 2012, 04:44:36 pm
LOL!!!

Push poll commissioned by homosexual activists. Even the far-left Post says its the "rosiest" picture yet, as normal polls have this 50-50.

OF COURSE ITS ROSY! It's a push poll.

Got to love that spin. Goes to show that PPP is nothing more than a propaganda outfit.

Wow.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2012, 01:32:07 am
NC (Elon):

Would you [support or oppose] an amendment to the North Carolina constitution that would prevent any same sex marriages?

38% Support
54% Oppose

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/030912_Methodology.pdf


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2012, 11:03:04 am
NC (Elon):

Would you [support or oppose] an amendment to the North Carolina constitution that would prevent any same sex marriages?

38% Support
54% Oppose

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/030912_Methodology.pdf

PPP notes that this poll is useless, because it doesn't use the correct ballot language.

The PPP poll for NC that's currently in the field shows a result that is different by 50 points !


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on March 27, 2012, 05:16:37 pm
March 2012 Massachusetts numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 58%
Illegal .............................................................. 31%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_322121.pdf

MA PPP results from September 2011: 60% legal, 30% illegal, 10% not sure
MA PPP results from June 2011: 59% legal, 33% illegal, 8% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

Come on, somebody get to those 15 unpolled states :P


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nhoj on March 27, 2012, 05:54:24 pm
March 2012 Massachusetts numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 58%
Illegal .............................................................. 31%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_322121.pdf

MA PPP results from September 2011: 60% legal, 30% illegal, 10% not sure
MA PPP results from June 2011: 59% legal, 33% illegal, 8% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;4&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

Come on, somebody get to those 15 unpolled states :P
Im sure PPP is on it :P [in fact since they just polled LA, I bet its likely we get one there.]

I do wonder why no one has polled Illinois on this one, considering there is legislative movement towards legalizing it in the state and I would think its electorate would be one of the most supportive in the midwest.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on April 13, 2012, 09:35:31 pm
April 2012 Colorado numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 53%
Illegal .............................................................. 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_041312.pdf

CO PPP results from December 2011: 47% legal, 43% illegal, 10% not sure
CO PPP results from August 2011: 45% legal, 45% illegal, 10% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

Damn look at that age gap:

18-29 y/o - 77% legal, 23% illegal, 0% not sure
30-45 y/o - 52% legal, 40% illegal, 7% not sure
46-65 y/o - 58% legal, 35% illegal, 7% not sure
65+ y/o - 28% legal, 59% illegal, 13% not sure


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on April 24, 2012, 02:00:58 pm
New NC referendum numbers show a narrower margin, actually the narrowest ever:

Would you vote for or against a constitutional amendment to provide that marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this State?

Would vote for it.............................................. 54%
Would vote against it ...................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Do you think that a 'yes' vote on Amendment One bans just gay marriage, bans both gay
marriage and civil unions, legalizes gay marriage, or are you not sure?


Bans just gay marriage ................................... 26%
Bans both gay marriage and civil unions ........ 36%
Legalizes gay marriage................................... 10%
Not sure .......................................................... 27%

If you knew that Amendment One banned both gay marriage and civil unions, would you vote
'yes' or 'no'?


Would vote 'yes'.............................................. 38%
Would vote 'no' ............................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry ..................................................28%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry ......................25%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ...................44%
Not sure ... 3%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_424.pdf


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on May 04, 2012, 08:32:07 pm
April 2012 Virginia numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 41%
Illegal .............................................................. 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_VA_050412.pdf

VA PPP results from December 2011: 34% legal, 53% illegal, 13% not sure
VA PPP results from July 2011: 35% legal, 52% illegal, 14% not sure


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 05, 2012, 12:29:46 am
So what are the odds that all of MA, MD, ME, and CA (if it's on the ballot in CA) vote for gay marriage this year?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: morgieb on May 05, 2012, 02:58:28 am
So what are the odds that all of MA, MD, ME, and CA (if it's on the ballot in CA) vote for gay marriage this year?
I'd say they all end up in favour of it.

In order of likelihood for least likely to most likely - Maryland, Maine, California and Massachusetts.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on May 05, 2012, 09:10:53 am
Damn look at that age gap:

18-29 y/o - 77% legal, 23% illegal, 0% not sure
30-45 y/o - 52% legal, 40% illegal, 7% not sure
46-65 y/o - 58% legal, 35% illegal, 7% not sure
65+ y/o - 28% legal, 59% illegal, 13% not sure

Well you have one age group that grew up during a time when gays were persecuted and torched, and you have one that grew up thinking homosexuality is normal, innate, and saw/heard homosexuals on TV and radio all the time.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Deputy GM R2D2 on May 05, 2012, 02:34:58 pm
New NC referendum numbers show a narrower margin, actually the narrowest ever:

Would you vote for or against a constitutional amendment to provide that marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this State?

Would vote for it.............................................. 54%
Would vote against it ...................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Do you think that a 'yes' vote on Amendment One bans just gay marriage, bans both gay
marriage and civil unions, legalizes gay marriage, or are you not sure?


Bans just gay marriage ................................... 26%
Bans both gay marriage and civil unions ........ 36%
Legalizes gay marriage................................... 10%
Not sure .......................................................... 27%

If you knew that Amendment One banned both gay marriage and civil unions, would you vote
'yes' or 'no'?


Would vote 'yes'.............................................. 38%
Would vote 'no' ............................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry ..................................................28%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry ......................25%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ...................44%
Not sure ... 3%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_424.pdf

Damn.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Solidarity Forever on May 05, 2012, 03:46:56 pm
Who said that the it would legalize gay marriage? I think they shouldn't be allowed to vote.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: oreomilkshake on May 05, 2012, 04:02:56 pm
Who said that the it would legalize gay marriage? I think they shouldn't be allowed to vote.
Agreed. No seriously, I'm tired of the obviously ignorant being allowed any say in things.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Deputy GM R2D2 on May 05, 2012, 04:07:41 pm
Who said that the it would legalize gay marriage? I think they shouldn't be allowed to vote.

Agreed. No seriously, I'm tired of the obviously ignorant being allowed any say in things.

Agreed in sentiment, not in actuality.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 05, 2012, 06:31:08 pm
So what are the odds that all of MA, MD, ME, and CA (if it's on the ballot in CA) vote for gay marriage this year?
I'd say they all end up in favour of it.

In order of likelihood for least likely to most likely - Maryland, Maine, California and Massachusetts.

I meant Washington and not Massachusetts. Maine will have a proposition to legalize gay marriage on the ballot. There's still a chance that California will too. Maryland and Washington will  likely have challenges to gay marriage on the ballot.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: morgieb on May 05, 2012, 07:39:14 pm
So what are the odds that all of MA, MD, ME, and CA (if it's on the ballot in CA) vote for gay marriage this year?
I'd say they all end up in favour of it.

In order of likelihood for least likely to most likely - Maryland, Maine, California and Massachusetts.

I meant Washington and not Massachusetts. Maine will have a proposition to legalize gay marriage on the ballot. There's still a chance that California will too. Maryland and Washington will  likely have challenges to gay marriage on the ballot.

Well Washington replaces Massachusetts as the most likely then.

California a little way behind due to the high minority population.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Sbane on May 06, 2012, 03:54:02 am
So what are the odds that all of MA, MD, ME, and CA (if it's on the ballot in CA) vote for gay marriage this year?
I'd say they all end up in favour of it.

In order of likelihood for least likely to most likely - Maryland, Maine, California and Massachusetts.

I meant Washington and not Massachusetts. Maine will have a proposition to legalize gay marriage on the ballot. There's still a chance that California will too. Maryland and Washington will  likely have challenges to gay marriage on the ballot.

Well Washington replaces Massachusetts as the most likely then.

California a little way behind due to the high minority population.

So let's see here. You don't see a problem with Maine voting even more strongly against gay marriage because most of the voters there were white? Only if minorities cause something you favor to fail you see a problem with it? It always seems like the California results seem to piss off people more than all the other states where whites voted against gay marriage (btw whites voted 49-51 for prop 8, only 7 points away from the result). Minorities shouldn't have a say, right? Maybe the no on 8 campaign could have done a better job communicating with minorities, but no, they should just fall in line on their own. And if they don't, ridicule them. And if lobster fisherman in Maine don't vote for gay marriage, well at least they were white and have a right to be heard, yeah?

I mean let's ignore other variables such as say religiousness, class backgrounds and professions of the voters and let's focus on the melanin content!


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on May 07, 2012, 03:34:32 am
More May 2012 North Carolina numbers :P

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 34%
Illegal .............................................................. 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?

Would vote for it - 55%
Would vote against it - 39%
Not sure - 6%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_506.pdf

NC PPP results from January 2012: 32% legal, 57% illegal, 12% not sure
NC PPP results from December 2011: 30% legal, 57% illegal, 13% not sure
NC PPP results from late October 2011: 31% legal, 59% illegal, 10% not sure
NC PPP results from early October 2011: 30% legal, 63% illegal, 8% not sure
NC PPP results from September 2011: 31% legal, 61% illegal, 8% not sure


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on May 07, 2012, 05:25:08 pm
I still don't understand how anyone ever had any hope of that amendment failing. It's North Carolina.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Deputy GM R2D2 on May 07, 2012, 05:27:07 pm
I still don't understand how anyone ever had any hope of that amendment failing. It's North Carolina.

This.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on May 09, 2012, 08:33:02 pm
More May 2012 North Carolina numbers :P

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 34%
Illegal .............................................................. 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?

Would vote for it - 55%
Would vote against it - 39%
Not sure - 6%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_506.pdf

NC PPP results from January 2012: 32% legal, 57% illegal, 12% not sure
NC PPP results from December 2011: 30% legal, 57% illegal, 13% not sure
NC PPP results from late October 2011: 31% legal, 59% illegal, 10% not sure
NC PPP results from early October 2011: 30% legal, 63% illegal, 8% not sure
NC PPP results from September 2011: 31% legal, 61% illegal, 8% not sure

Here's the actual results

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT

100 of 100 Counties Reporting

        Percent                  Votes

For           61.04%              1,303,876
Against    38.96%                 832,219
            


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on May 11, 2012, 12:34:41 am
May 2012 Ohio numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 35%
Illegal .............................................................. 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_050912.pdf

OH PPP results from October 2011: 32% legal, 55% illegal, 13% not sure
OH PPP results from August 2011: 33% legal, 53% illegal, 14% not sure


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on May 16, 2012, 03:12:22 pm
April 2012 Montana numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 41%
Illegal .............................................................. 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050412.pdf

MT PPP results from November 2011: 37% legal, 51% illegal, 12% not sure

May 2012 New Hampshire numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 57%
Illegal .............................................................. 35%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NH_051612.pdf

NH PPP results from July 2011: 51% legal, 38% illegal, 11% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;4&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on May 16, 2012, 03:41:56 pm
Surprisingly not-completely-awful Montana numbers.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on May 16, 2012, 03:50:23 pm
It doesn't actually surprise me much that most of the mountain West should be better than most of the Rust Belt.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on May 16, 2012, 06:02:09 pm
I still don't understand how anyone ever had any hope of that amendment failing. It's North Carolina.

North Carolina is the new Florida, that's why.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on May 17, 2012, 04:30:41 pm
May 2012 North Carolina poll #2:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 34%
Illegal .............................................................. 58%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Do you think being gay should be a felony, or
not?

Being gay should be a felony ..........................   8%
It should not ....................................................  85%
Not sure ..........................................................   6%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_miscellaneousNC_051712.pdf

NC PPP results from May 2012: 34% legal, 57% illegal, 9% not sure
NC PPP results from January 2012: 32% legal, 57% illegal, 12% not sure
NC PPP results from December 2011: 30% legal, 57% illegal, 13% not sure
NC PPP results from late October 2011: 31% legal, 59% illegal, 10% not sure
NC PPP results from early October 2011: 30% legal, 63% illegal, 8% not sure
NC PPP results from September 2011: 31% legal, 61% illegal, 8% not sure

May 2012 Iowa poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 44%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_051712.pdf

IA PPP results from Ocotober 2011: 41% legal, 48% illegal, 11% not sure
IA PPP results from August 2011: 46% legal, 45% illegal, 9% not sure

May 2012 New Jersey poll:

Quote
May 17, 2012 - Big Age Gap On Gay Marriage In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds

New Jersey voters support same-sex marriage 53 - 42 percent, and support 67 - 27 percent, with strong support from all groups, Gov. Christopher Christie's call for a voter referendum on the issue, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Voters under 35 years old support gay marriage 77 - 18 percent, as voters 35 to 54 years old support it 58 - 39 percent. Voters over 55 are opposed 53 - 41 percent.

President Barack Obama's recent endorsement of same-sex marriage will not affect their presidential vote, 64 percent of New Jersey voters tell the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University poll. His support for gay marriage will make them less likely to vote for Obama, 19 percent say, while 16 percent say more likely.

Gay marriage support is 69 - 28 percent among Democrats and 55 - 38 percent among independent voters. Republicans are opposed 65 - 30 percent.

New Jersey voters say by a small 48 - 44 percent margin that Gov. Christie did the wrong thing vetoing same-sex marriage legislation. The State Legislature should override Christie's veto, 48 percent of voters say, while 45 percent do not want an override.

Quote
TREND: Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?

May 17, 2012 - 53% support, 42% oppose, 5% DK/NA
Mar 1, 2012 - 57% support, 37% oppose, 6% DK/NA
Jan 19, 2012 - 52% support, 42% oppose, 6% DK/NA
Nov 25, 2009 - 46% support, 49% oppose, 6% DK/NA
Apr 23, 2009 - 49% support, 43% oppose, 8% DK/NA
Dec 7, 2006 - 44% support, 50% oppose, 5% DK/NA
Nov 8, 2006 - 41% support, 50% oppose, 9% DK/NA

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1750

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;4&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on May 22, 2012, 02:24:22 pm
Homo-marriage now leads by 14:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/22/11812596-nbcwsj-poll-obamas-gay-marriage-announcement-a-draw?lite


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on May 23, 2012, 01:28:29 pm
Homo-marriage now leads by 14:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/22/11812596-nbcwsj-poll-obamas-gay-marriage-announcement-a-draw?lite

It would be nice to see the breakdown in support/opposition, based on partisan identification.

So far, I have learned that this poll is very skewed in partisan identification:

ID          NBC     Likely 2012     Difference

D            29            36                     7
R            22            34                   12
O             4              2                    -2
I            45            28                  -17
T          100          100


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on May 23, 2012, 05:41:37 pm
May 2012 Pennsylvania poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 39%
Illegal .............................................................. 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_052312.pdf

PA PPP results from November 2011 - 36% legal, 52% illegal, 12% not sure
PA PPP results from July 2011 - 38% legal, 51% illegal, 11% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;4&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;4&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on May 24, 2012, 11:03:37 am
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/maryland-polling-memo.html

Quote
May 24, 2012
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Maryland finds a significant increase in support for same-sex marriage among African American voters following President Obama’s historic announcement two weeks ago. The referendum to keep the state’s new law legalizing same-sex marriage now appears likely to pass by a healthy margin. Here are some key findings:

-57% of Maryland voters say they’re likely to vote for the new marriage law this fall, compared to only 37% who are opposed. That 20 point margin of passage represents a 12 point shift from an identical PPP survey in early March, which found it ahead by a closer 52/44 margin.

-The movement over the last two months can be explained almost entirely by a major shift in opinion about same-sex marriage among black voters. Previously 56% said they would vote against the new law with only 39% planning to uphold it. Those numbers have now almost completely flipped, with 55% of African Americans planning to vote for the law and only 36% now opposed.

My favorite cross-tabs from the poll:

(http://i.imgur.com/fRdg1.png)

(http://i.imgur.com/fRMOH.png)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on June 01, 2012, 07:24:08 pm
May 2012 Michigan poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 41%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MiscellaneousMI_053112.pdf

MI PPP results from July 2011: 33% legal, 53% illegal, 14% not sure

May 2012 Missouri poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 36%
Illegal .............................................................. 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_060112.pdf

MO PPP results from September 2011: 32% legal, 59% illegal, 9% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;4&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;4&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;4&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on June 01, 2012, 07:33:00 pm
Pretty good jumps for both states. Oh, what a little Presidential support can do for a cause.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on June 06, 2012, 01:00:36 am
Late May/early June 2012 Minnesota poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 47%
Illegal .............................................................. 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to provide that only a union of one
man and one woman shall be valid or
recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?

Yes - 43%
No - 49%
Not sure - 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MiscellaneousMN_060512.pdf

MN PPP results from January 2012: 43% legal, 47% illegal, 10% not sure
MN PPP results from May 2011: 46% legal, 45% illegal, 9% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;4&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;4&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Joe Republic on June 06, 2012, 01:21:18 am
I'm surprised there's nothing out of Illinois yet.  Dem-controlled legislature, Dem governor who has already endorsed it... it'd be nice to see if the people would okay it too.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Franzl on June 06, 2012, 01:51:40 am
I'm surprised there's nothing out of Illinois yet.  Dem-controlled legislature, Dem governor who has already endorsed it... it'd be nice to see if the people would okay it too.

Don't know why, but IL seems reluctant on gay rights these days. Civil unions were a real struggle to pass.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on June 06, 2012, 01:57:57 am
I'm surprised there's nothing out of Illinois yet.  Dem-controlled legislature, Dem governor who has already endorsed it... it'd be nice to see if the people would okay it too.

My understanding is that there's a not-so-insignificant portion of conservative democrats from southern Illinois currently serving. With Dems maximizing their gains around the Chicago suburbs via redistricting, 2013 may be better timing.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Joe Republic on June 06, 2012, 03:35:54 am
Sure, but that still doesn't explain the lack of polling.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on June 08, 2012, 10:45:17 pm
Late May/early June 2012 Florida poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 42%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MiscellaneousFL_060812.pdf

FL PPP results from June 2011: 37% legal, 53% illegal, 10% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;4&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;4&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;4&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ilikeverin on June 08, 2012, 11:34:34 pm
In case it hasn't been said enough: thank you Barack Obama.  :!


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on June 09, 2012, 12:09:24 am
I don't think Florida is that close. The large population of the elderly will be a conservative anchor on gay marriage in Florida.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on June 09, 2012, 09:58:52 am
I hate the "legal/illegal" question. I feel it increases the Bradley effect IMO because it probably confuses some people who disagree with gay marriage but don't think people should be thrown in jail for having a private ceremony. JMO. It's probably the most favorable wording you could come up with for same-sex marriage.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Vermin Supreme on June 09, 2012, 01:02:47 pm
My mouth would dropped all the way to the floor and myself shock in joy if same sex marriage is legalized in Florida.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ajc0918 on June 10, 2012, 09:43:54 pm
Unfortunately, we're very far off from overturning thr constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. But a decent number of Florida cities are creating domestic partnerships and I feel like we're progressing.

Constitutional amendments in Florida need 60% to pass, so I believe(?) it would need that much to overturn it. I could be wrong but if I'm right we're a long way from that.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on June 16, 2012, 10:15:11 pm
PPP (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NV_615.pdf)
Quote
There's one thing Nevada voters across party lines can agree on: they love them some
brothels. 64% think brothels should be legal to only 23% who think they should be
illegal. The most striking thing in these numbers is that an equal 66% of Democrats and
Republicans each think that brothels should be legal. In late March we found that only
20% of Nevada GOP voters supported gay marriage so that's an interesting take on
family values there.

Interesting, indeed.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on June 16, 2012, 10:38:02 pm
PPP (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NV_615.pdf)
Quote
There's one thing Nevada voters across party lines can agree on: they love them some
brothels. 64% think brothels should be legal to only 23% who think they should be
illegal. The most striking thing in these numbers is that an equal 66% of Democrats and
Republicans each think that brothels should be legal. In late March we found that only
20% of Nevada GOP voters supported gay marriage so that's an interesting take on
family values there.

Interesting, indeed.

I love PPP.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on June 16, 2012, 10:39:20 pm
PPP (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NV_615.pdf)
Quote
There's one thing Nevada voters across party lines can agree on: they love them some
brothels. 64% think brothels should be legal to only 23% who think they should be
illegal. The most striking thing in these numbers is that an equal 66% of Democrats and
Republicans each think that brothels should be legal. In late March we found that only
20% of Nevada GOP voters supported gay marriage so that's an interesting take on
family values there.

Interesting, indeed.

I love PPP.

I wonder how Nevada Republicans feel about homosexual brothels.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on June 16, 2012, 10:41:30 pm
PPP (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NV_615.pdf)
Quote
There's one thing Nevada voters across party lines can agree on: they love them some
brothels. 64% think brothels should be legal to only 23% who think they should be
illegal. The most striking thing in these numbers is that an equal 66% of Democrats and
Republicans each think that brothels should be legal. In late March we found that only
20% of Nevada GOP voters supported gay marriage so that's an interesting take on
family values there.

Interesting, indeed.

I love PPP.

I wonder how Nevada Republicans feel about homosexual brothels.

"BAN THEM!"


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on June 17, 2012, 12:03:19 am
It would be interesting to see cities polled.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on June 18, 2012, 03:09:14 pm
http://www.wbur.org/2012/06/18/wbur-maine-poll

55% Support
36% Oppose

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;4&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;4&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;4&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;4&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on June 18, 2012, 07:42:53 pm
http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/214734857002164225

Quote
Going to have good news for pro-gay marriage side in WA tomorrow.
Pretty decent chance equality advocates go 4 for 4 this fall
8:02 AM June 18, 2012

Yeah, 2012 looks pretty good. The Maine/Maryland/Washington initiatives are favored to win and it's very possible Minnesota will reject the constitutional ban.

As far as new states passing constitutional bans, there's really only four possibilities left: Indiana, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

(http://i.imgur.com/W6Kvu.png)

None of these four states allow for citizen initiatives that amend the state constitution so it's been up to the state legislatures to refer a ban.

Indiana/Pennsylvania - I think split control in the state legislature has prevented referring a constitutional ban in these two previously, but Republicans won both these state legislatures in 2010. I was expecting them to pass bans in 2011 that were referred to the 2012 ballot like NC/MN Republicans did but it turns out these two states require a constitutional amendment to pass in two consecutive legislative sessions before it is referred to the ballot. It might fail if Democrats win control of one of the chambers of the state legislatures in the Nov. 2012 elections or if Republicans opt for amendments that ban both gay marriage and civil unions. I could see the bans failing in 2016 but sadly I think they'd have a high chance of passing in 2013/2014.

West Virginia - WV Democrats haven't passed a state constitutional ban and I think they only would in response to the state supreme court overturning the statutory ban. Of course there's also the possibility Republicans will win the state legislature sometime this decade.

Wyoming - No idea why Republicans haven't referred a ban here. They've controlled the state legislature for 30+ years and it would probably pass with 60%+ of the vote.

It's going to look pretty weird to look back and see 30+ state constitutional amendments banning gay marriage/civil unions pass from 1998 to 2014/16 :P


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on June 18, 2012, 08:23:29 pm
Constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage have continuously failed in the Wyoming Republican legislature. They're an interesting bunch. I don't think one would ever pass the legislature there.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on June 18, 2012, 08:50:30 pm
I think Wyoming is one of those states where odd, libertarianish Republicans dominate the party base.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on June 18, 2012, 08:56:36 pm
Constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage have continuously failed in the Wyoming Republican legislature. They're an interesting bunch. I don't think one would ever pass the legislature there.

I think Wyoming is one of those states where odd, libertarianish Republicans dominate the party base.

This could be part of it now that I think about it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Shepard


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on June 18, 2012, 09:09:03 pm
Maybe, but I don't think it plays that big a part.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on June 18, 2012, 10:39:13 pm
Wyoming - No idea why Republicans haven't referred a ban here. They've controlled the state legislature for 30+ years and it would probably pass with 60%+ of the vote.

They don't need it as a wedge issue and they likely have no fear that the Wyoming Supreme Court will overturn the legislative ban.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on June 20, 2012, 02:54:10 am
June 2012 Washington poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 51%
Illegal .............................................................. 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_WA_619.pdf

WA PPP results from February 2012: 49% legal, 44% illegal, 7% not sure
WA PPP results from May 2011: 46% legal, 44% illegal, 10% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;4&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=2;17;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;4&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;4&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: morgieb on June 20, 2012, 05:10:51 am
Will constitutional amendments be overturned if a Roe v Wade-esque decision is passed?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Ebowed on June 20, 2012, 05:58:04 am
Will constitutional amendments be overturned if a Roe v Wade-esque decision is passed?

Yes, the federal constitution overrides any state constitutions


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on July 05, 2012, 07:31:17 pm
June 2012 Massachusetts poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 62%
Illegal .............................................................. 30%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_062812.pdf

MA PPP results from March 2012: 58% legal, 31% illegal, 11% not sure
MA PPP results from September 2011: 60% legal, 30% illegal, 10% not sure
MA PPP results from June 2011: 59% legal, 33% illegal, 8% not sure

June 2012 Ohio poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 37%
Illegal .............................................................. 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Miscellaneous_OH_062812.pdf

OH PPP results from May 2012: 35% legal, 52% illegal, 13% not sure
OH PPP results from October 2011: 32% legal, 55% illegal, 13% not sure
OH PPP results from August 2011: 33% legal, 53% illegal, 14% not sure

June 2012 Oregon poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 46%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_070512.pdf

OR PPP results from June 2011: 48% legal, 42% illegal, 11% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;4&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;4&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;4&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on July 05, 2012, 07:34:52 pm
Still much work to be done.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: morgieb on July 06, 2012, 07:50:42 am
Poor numbers from Oregon.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on July 06, 2012, 08:03:18 am
We've seen a few polls (Iowa and Minnesota I think?) slip back a few points within the margin of error, but I agree. Though this is the poll that has Obama down by 22 points against Romney with OR independents.

It looks like holding off at the 2012 measure was a good idea. There will probably be some peer pressure encouraging a 2014 push provided Washington upholds it this year and California's lawsuit ends with the Supreme Court refusing to hear the appeal and thus legalization in 2013.

Worst case scenario, it will be held off until 2016.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on July 06, 2012, 09:39:24 pm
Where are the polls out of Georgia?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on July 21, 2012, 12:09:42 pm
Minnesota is now very, very unlikely to approve SSM in November, says a new SurveyUSA poll:

52% for the man/woman marriage amendment
37% against
  5% won't vote
  6% not sure

GOP: 75-12 support
DEM: 54-38 oppose
IND: 48-42 support

http://kstp.com/news/stories/S2698095.shtml?cat=1

Washington is a different story though, also by SurveyUSA:

"A new law passed by the legislature would allow same-sex couples to marry in Washington state. Should this law be approved? Or rejected?"

50% Approve
43% Rejected

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on July 21, 2012, 12:20:25 pm
Pretty close in Washington, but then again, seems like it'll be close either way, huh? SUSA was good in Washington for R-74 two years ago, though. I feel like R-74 will need about a 10 point lead in the polls to win "comfortably".


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: krazen1211 on July 21, 2012, 12:44:56 pm
Minnesota is now very, very unlikely to approve SSM in November, says a new SurveyUSA poll:

52% for the man/woman marriage amendment
37% against
  5% won't vote
  6% not sure

GOP: 75-12 support
DEM: 54-38 oppose
IND: 48-42 support

http://kstp.com/news/stories/S2698095.shtml?cat=1

Washington is a different story though, also by SurveyUSA:

"A new law passed by the legislature would allow same-sex couples to marry in Washington state. Should this law be approved? Or rejected?"

50% Approve
43% Rejected

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d

Ha. That debunks PPP's gutter trash poll from about a month ago.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on July 21, 2012, 12:50:26 pm
One poll debunking another poll from over a month ago. Thanks for you valuable contribution to this thread.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on July 21, 2012, 02:36:34 pm
Wyoming - No idea why Republicans haven't referred a ban here. They've controlled the state legislature for 30+ years and it would probably pass with 60%+ of the vote.

They don't need it as a wedge issue and they likely have no fear that the Wyoming Supreme Court will overturn the legislative ban.

Trying to ban gay marriage would cost the GOP support in Wyoming, as it did in Idaho six years ago (if you don't believe me, look at how badly it fared in Boise's recently developed neighborhoods and suburbs). The amount of ire the all-important libertarian-esque independents have towards the fundamentalist brand of social conservative is surprising.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on July 21, 2012, 02:58:32 pm
Who knew there were so many DINOs in MN?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on July 21, 2012, 02:59:50 pm
Who knew there were so many DINOs in MN?

SUSA is notoriously bad at polling MN but the lack of support among Democrats for gay marriage has been a recurring theme of this debate. It's why Aroostook County was the bastion against it in Maine.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on July 21, 2012, 03:15:26 pm
Aroostook county is "Democratic" (rather, it seems more Republican than the state average more often than not) for different reasons than areas in Minnesota, though. Comparing them is silly.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on July 21, 2012, 03:24:09 pm
Aroostook county is "Democratic" (rather, it seems more Republican than the state average more often than not) for different reasons than areas in Minnesota, though. Comparing them is silly.

Sure but it shares more than a few similarities with the Iron Range and the fact that a swing county would vote so strongly against the state average illustrates my point. I should have just noted how poorly the "No" side fared in the strip of the Iron Range that extends into Wisconsin. It performed on par with the state average there.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on July 21, 2012, 06:03:47 pm
Minnesota is now very, very unlikely to approve SSM in November, says a new SurveyUSA poll:

52% for the man/woman marriage amendment
37% against
  5% won't vote
  6% not sure

GOP: 75-12 support
DEM: 54-38 oppose
IND: 48-42 support

http://kstp.com/news/stories/S2698095.shtml?cat=1

Washington is a different story though, also by SurveyUSA:

"A new law passed by the legislature would allow same-sex couples to marry in Washington state. Should this law be approved? Or rejected?"

50% Approve
43% Rejected

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d

Ha. That debunks PPP's gutter trash poll from about a month ago.

Why do you care?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: krazen1211 on July 21, 2012, 06:47:02 pm
Minnesota is now very, very unlikely to approve SSM in November, says a new SurveyUSA poll:

52% for the man/woman marriage amendment
37% against
  5% won't vote
  6% not sure

GOP: 75-12 support
DEM: 54-38 oppose
IND: 48-42 support

http://kstp.com/news/stories/S2698095.shtml?cat=1

Washington is a different story though, also by SurveyUSA:

"A new law passed by the legislature would allow same-sex couples to marry in Washington state. Should this law be approved? Or rejected?"

50% Approve
43% Rejected

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d

Ha. That debunks PPP's gutter trash poll from about a month ago.

Why do you care?

Mr. Nathan, sir, there is something to be said about the merit of discrediting pollsters that have an obvious dubious agenda and that do not seek to represent the people.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on July 22, 2012, 12:51:44 pm
Minnesota is now very, very unlikely to approve SSM in November, says a new SurveyUSA poll:

52% for the man/woman marriage amendment
37% against
  5% won't vote
  6% not sure

GOP: 75-12 support
DEM: 54-38 oppose
IND: 48-42 support

http://kstp.com/news/stories/S2698095.shtml?cat=1

Washington is a different story though, also by SurveyUSA:

"A new law passed by the legislature would allow same-sex couples to marry in Washington state. Should this law be approved? Or rejected?"

50% Approve
43% Rejected

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d

Ha. That debunks PPP's gutter trash poll from about a month ago.

Why do you care?

Mr. Nathan, sir, there is something to be said about the merit of discrediting pollsters that have an obvious dubious agenda and that do not seek to represent the people.

I mean about this issue, not about PPP. For that matter, why are 'the people' terribly relevant to you on those issues and seemingly only on those issues in which the most superficially populist argument is one that happens to support the right-wing position?

These are, you'll understand, rhetorical questions. I, at least, know exactly why you care, and exactly why you think 'the people' have a moral leg to stand on here.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Sbane on July 22, 2012, 02:56:20 pm
Who knew there were so many DINOs in MN?

Can't blame it non-whites here either. It's a matter of class really, which in a state like California makes it seem like its the Blacks and Hispanics opposed to gay marriage.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: morgieb on July 22, 2012, 04:23:44 pm
Who knew there were so many DINOs in MN?
Isn't the Mid-West rather culturally conservative?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on July 22, 2012, 05:01:51 pm
July 2012 Wisconsin poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 43%
Illegal .............................................................. 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_072012.pdf

WI PPP results from August 2011: 39% legal, 50% illegal, 11% not sure
WI PPP results from May 2011: 42% legal, 46% illegal, 12% not sure

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;4&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;4&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;4&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;4&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: krazen1211 on July 22, 2012, 10:19:11 pm
Minnesota is now very, very unlikely to approve SSM in November, says a new SurveyUSA poll:

52% for the man/woman marriage amendment
37% against
  5% won't vote
  6% not sure

GOP: 75-12 support
DEM: 54-38 oppose
IND: 48-42 support

http://kstp.com/news/stories/S2698095.shtml?cat=1

Washington is a different story though, also by SurveyUSA:

"A new law passed by the legislature would allow same-sex couples to marry in Washington state. Should this law be approved? Or rejected?"

50% Approve
43% Rejected

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d

Ha. That debunks PPP's gutter trash poll from about a month ago.

Why do you care?

Mr. Nathan, sir, there is something to be said about the merit of discrediting pollsters that have an obvious dubious agenda and that do not seek to represent the people.

I mean about this issue, not about PPP. For that matter, why are 'the people' terribly relevant to you on those issues and seemingly only on those issues in which the most superficially populist argument is one that happens to support the right-wing position?

These are, you'll understand, rhetorical questions. I, at least, know exactly why you care, and exactly why you think 'the people' have a moral leg to stand on here.


These are the issues that have put to a direct vote of the people. 30 some thing times, in fact, with an extraordinary amount of success.

And on this particular issue, the special interest groups that has lost 30 times frequently react in a unprofessional manner. Unlike most issues which go to a vote of the people, these special interests do not seem to show the proper respect!


What I find to be funny, though, is on issues that Nathan might claim majority support, such as increasing taxes, the people have not shown much support for such taxes at the ballot box in states such as Washington and California.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: krazen1211 on July 22, 2012, 10:20:02 pm
July 2012 Wisconsin poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 43%
Illegal .............................................................. 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_072012.pdf


We already know that Wisconsin has voted 59% against this policy. PPP is cooking the books!


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on July 23, 2012, 02:07:52 am
See, krazen, I totally get everything that you're saying, it's just that it's a cocktail of barely-relevant bullsh**t, astonishing leaps of logic, and mean-spirited spin none of which actually answers my question.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 23, 2012, 12:55:55 pm
July 2012 Wisconsin poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 43%
Illegal .............................................................. 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_072012.pdf


We already know that Wisconsin has voted 59% against this policy. PPP is cooking the books!

We also know that Wisconsin voted 56% for Barack Obama, so I guess there's no need to hold a second election there. Look at all the money we can save taxpayers by assuming public opinion is set in stone and never changes!


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: krazen1211 on July 23, 2012, 01:20:30 pm
July 2012 Wisconsin poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 43%
Illegal .............................................................. 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_072012.pdf


We already know that Wisconsin has voted 59% against this policy. PPP is cooking the books!

We also know that Wisconsin voted 56% for Barack Obama, so I guess there's no need to hold a second election there. Look at all the money we can save taxpayers by assuming public opinion is set in stone and never changes!

That would be a valid point if Barack Obama's opponent in 2012 was John McCain.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: danny on July 23, 2012, 01:35:47 pm
July 2012 Wisconsin poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 43%
Illegal .............................................................. 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_072012.pdf


We already know that Wisconsin has voted 59% against this policy. PPP is cooking the books!

We also know that Wisconsin voted 56% for Barack Obama, so I guess there's no need to hold a second election there. Look at all the money we can save taxpayers by assuming public opinion is set in stone and never changes!

That would be a valid point if Barack Obama's opponent in 2012 was John McCain.

That would be a terrible point, and following it would have meant that Grover Cleveland would have automatically lost the 1892 election.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on July 23, 2012, 04:17:33 pm
July 2012 Wisconsin poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 43%
Illegal .............................................................. 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_072012.pdf


We already know that Wisconsin has voted 59% against this policy. PPP is cooking the books!

We also know that Wisconsin voted 56% for Barack Obama, so I guess there's no need to hold a second election there. Look at all the money we can save taxpayers by assuming public opinion is set in stone and never changes!

That would be a valid point if Barack Obama's opponent in 2012 was John McCain.

...

No.  No, it wouldn't be.  Where are you getting this?  Mr. Moderate was clearly being sarcastic.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on August 04, 2012, 05:55:25 pm
July 2012 Connecticut poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 55%
Illegal .............................................................. 33%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CT_080212.pdf

CT PPP results from September 2011: 55% legal, 32% illegal, 13% not sure

July 2012 poll on the Maryland referendum:

Quote
The new statewide poll conducted by Hart Research Associates found 54 percent of Marylanders say they would vote for the law that allows gay and lesbian couples to marry. Forty percent would vote against it. When they surveyed voters in March, 51 percent said they would vote for the law, and 43 percent said they would vote against it.

Hart polled 504 likely voters statewide from July 24-28. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/02/maryland-marriage-equality_n_1732555.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on August 30, 2012, 10:22:36 pm
August 2012 Nevada poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 47%
Illegal .............................................................. 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NV_082812.pdf

NV PPP results from July 2011: 45% legal, 44% illegal, 11% not sure

------

Meanwhile the Rhode Island Senate President continues to be a moderate hero: http://www.boston.com/news/local/rhode-island/2012/08/29/senate-president-mum-gay-marriage/dyZ2ozauXRqSAMInd5M6aJ/story.html

Quote
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (AP) — Prospects for gay marriage in Rhode Island remain murky as the Speaker of the House restates his desire to vote on the issue even as the Senate president remains silent.

House Speaker Gordon Fox said Wednesday that should he retain his position after this year’s election he plans to schedule a vote early in next year’s legislative session. Fox dropped gay marriage legislation last year after it became apparent it wouldn’t pass the Senate.

Gay marriage advocates hope the fall elections change the Senate’s makeup. Senate President Teresa Paiva Weed declined to say Wednesday if she would allow a vote on gay marriage. The Newport Democrat is an opponent.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on August 30, 2012, 10:27:11 pm
Always a Senate's fault, isn't it?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: morgieb on August 31, 2012, 04:02:50 am
Why is it so hard to pass legislation in Rhode Island of all places?

Good news in Maryland, though I feel there's a Bradley effect in same-sex polling.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on September 01, 2012, 04:59:44 pm
Always a Senate's fault, isn't it?

Not in Vermont, where it was very much the opposite,  New Hampshire (though it did seem like it was going to die after it was voted down in committee), Maine or California. And it's because of the Iowa State Senate that a constitutional amendment has never went to the polls.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on September 02, 2012, 04:55:25 am
Ditto in Massachusetts, where the senate leadership was the main pro-gay force in the constitutional conventions and the main conservative forces were Tom Finneran, the House Republican caucus, and various conservative Dems.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Ted & Annette Fleming on September 04, 2012, 05:14:07 pm
I know I’ll probably be labeled unChristian for quoting this person, but here goes:

"I have come to bring fire on the earth, and how I wish it were already kindled!"


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on September 05, 2012, 05:52:51 pm
I know I’ll probably be labeled unChristian for quoting this person, but here goes:

"I have come to bring fire on the earth, and how I wish it were already kindled!"


Oh, that quote in and of itself is plenty Christian (obviously), it's just completely inappropriate and frankly a little nonsensical in this context.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Ted & Annette Fleming on September 05, 2012, 06:39:50 pm
I know I’ll probably be labeled unChristian for quoting this person, but here goes:

"I have come to bring fire on the earth, and how I wish it were already kindled!"


Oh, that quote in and of itself is plenty Christian (obviously), it's just completely inappropriate and frankly a little nonsensical in this context.

Yeah, right...Tell that to the twin cities (mentioned numerous times by whom we've been referring) that once stood near Zoar on the plain.  But, referring to such a story is no doubt also ignorant and unChristian of me.  Might, was well color me a throwback and be done with it...and just for grins: drag my mother through the mud, slap my kids, and kick my dog while you're at it.



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: danny on September 05, 2012, 07:23:57 pm
I know I’ll probably be labeled unChristian for quoting this person, but here goes:

"I have come to bring fire on the earth, and how I wish it were already kindled!"


Oh, that quote in and of itself is plenty Christian (obviously), it's just completely inappropriate and frankly a little nonsensical in this context.

Yeah, right...Tell that to the twin cities (mentioned numerous times by whom we've been referring) that once stood near Zoar on the plain.  But, referring to such a story is no doubt also ignorant and unChristian of me.  Might, was well color me a throwback and be done with it...and just for grins: drag my mother through the mud, slap my kids, and kick my dog while you're at it.



(http://memedepot.com/uploads/0/207_not_sure_if_serious.jpg)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 05, 2012, 07:34:30 pm
A poster with a reference to an 80's movie as a username rocking Old Testament quotes in opposition to gay marriage? We've never seen that before.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Ted & Annette Fleming on September 05, 2012, 07:39:06 pm
A poster with a reference to an 80's movie as a username rocking Old Testament quotes in opposition to gay marriage? We've never seen that before.

don't forget about the lyrics in the sig from a 70's hit....but, in any case, the following quote is from the New Testament, you twit.  ;)

"I have come to bring fire on the earth, and how I wish it were already kindled!"



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 05, 2012, 07:44:03 pm
I had Zoar in mind, having looked only at the post a couple up. I guess "quote" wasn't strictly accurate there.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on September 05, 2012, 08:22:16 pm
I know I’ll probably be labeled unChristian for quoting this person, but here goes:

"I have come to bring fire on the earth, and how I wish it were already kindled!"


Oh, that quote in and of itself is plenty Christian (obviously), it's just completely inappropriate and frankly a little nonsensical in this context.

Yeah, right...Tell that to the twin cities (mentioned numerous times by whom we've been referring) that once stood near Zoar on the plain.  But, referring to such a story is no doubt also ignorant and unChristian of me.  Might, was well color me a throwback and be done with it...and just for grins: drag my mother through the mud, slap my kids, and kick my dog while you're at it.

Not hugely familiar with Isaiah, are we?

I was at church less than nine hours ago, receiving communion like a good Christian. Give it a rest.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on September 05, 2012, 10:35:00 pm
I know I’ll probably be labeled unChristian for quoting this person, but here goes:

"I have come to bring fire on the earth, and how I wish it were already kindled!"


Oh, that quote in and of itself is plenty Christian (obviously), it's just completely inappropriate and frankly a little nonsensical in this context.

Yeah, right...Tell that to the twin cities (mentioned numerous times by whom we've been referring) that once stood near Zoar on the plain.  But, referring to such a story is no doubt also ignorant and unChristian of me.  Might, was well color me a throwback and be done with it...and just for grins: drag my mother through the mud, slap my kids, and kick my dog while you're at it.

Not hugely familiar with Isaiah, are we?

I was at church less than nine hours ago, receiving communion like a good Christian. Give it a rest.

Episcopalians have Wednesday afternoon services? I've heard of Wednesday night (though usually from evangelical churches) but Wednesday afternoon is a little odd.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on September 05, 2012, 10:46:40 pm
I know I’ll probably be labeled unChristian for quoting this person, but here goes:

"I have come to bring fire on the earth, and how I wish it were already kindled!"


Oh, that quote in and of itself is plenty Christian (obviously), it's just completely inappropriate and frankly a little nonsensical in this context.

Yeah, right...Tell that to the twin cities (mentioned numerous times by whom we've been referring) that once stood near Zoar on the plain.  But, referring to such a story is no doubt also ignorant and unChristian of me.  Might, was well color me a throwback and be done with it...and just for grins: drag my mother through the mud, slap my kids, and kick my dog while you're at it.

Not hugely familiar with Isaiah, are we?

I was at church less than nine hours ago, receiving communion like a good Christian. Give it a rest.

Episcopalians have Wednesday afternoon services? I've heard of Wednesday night (though usually from evangelical churches) but Wednesday afternoon is a little odd.

My church does (Rite I Eucharist with healing prayer). I don't believe it's any sort of standard.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on September 05, 2012, 10:54:16 pm
I know I’ll probably be labeled unChristian for quoting this person, but here goes:

"I have come to bring fire on the earth, and how I wish it were already kindled!"


Oh, that quote in and of itself is plenty Christian (obviously), it's just completely inappropriate and frankly a little nonsensical in this context.

Yeah, right...Tell that to the twin cities (mentioned numerous times by whom we've been referring) that once stood near Zoar on the plain.  But, referring to such a story is no doubt also ignorant and unChristian of me.  Might, was well color me a throwback and be done with it...and just for grins: drag my mother through the mud, slap my kids, and kick my dog while you're at it.

Not hugely familiar with Isaiah, are we?

I was at church less than nine hours ago, receiving communion like a good Christian. Give it a rest.

Episcopalians have Wednesday afternoon services? I've heard of Wednesday night (though usually from evangelical churches) but Wednesday afternoon is a little odd.

My church does (Rite I Eucharist with healing prayer). I don't believe it's any sort of standard.

Your church is charismatic now? ;)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: afleitch on September 06, 2012, 02:58:49 am
Hi jmfcst :D


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on September 06, 2012, 06:26:51 am
I know I’ll probably be labeled unChristian for quoting this person, but here goes:

"I have come to bring fire on the earth, and how I wish it were already kindled!"


Oh, that quote in and of itself is plenty Christian (obviously), it's just completely inappropriate and frankly a little nonsensical in this context.

Yeah, right...Tell that to the twin cities (mentioned numerous times by whom we've been referring) that once stood near Zoar on the plain.  But, referring to such a story is no doubt also ignorant and unChristian of me.  Might, was well color me a throwback and be done with it...and just for grins: drag my mother through the mud, slap my kids, and kick my dog while you're at it.


A poster with a reference to an 80's movie as a username rocking Old Testament quotes in opposition to gay marriage? We've never seen that before.

don't forget about the lyrics in the sig from a 70's hit....but, in any case, the following quote is from the New Testament, you twit.  ;)

"I have come to bring fire on the earth, and how I wish it were already kindled!"



Tss...


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on September 06, 2012, 05:24:26 pm
I know I’ll probably be labeled unChristian for quoting this person, but here goes:

"I have come to bring fire on the earth, and how I wish it were already kindled!"


Oh, that quote in and of itself is plenty Christian (obviously), it's just completely inappropriate and frankly a little nonsensical in this context.

Yeah, right...Tell that to the twin cities (mentioned numerous times by whom we've been referring) that once stood near Zoar on the plain.  But, referring to such a story is no doubt also ignorant and unChristian of me.  Might, was well color me a throwback and be done with it...and just for grins: drag my mother through the mud, slap my kids, and kick my dog while you're at it.

Not hugely familiar with Isaiah, are we?

I was at church less than nine hours ago, receiving communion like a good Christian. Give it a rest.

Episcopalians have Wednesday afternoon services? I've heard of Wednesday night (though usually from evangelical churches) but Wednesday afternoon is a little odd.

My church does (Rite I Eucharist with healing prayer). I don't believe it's any sort of standard.

Your church is charismatic now? ;)

We use a term that charismatic churches use as a more generic equivalent to the technical term 'Anointing of the Sick', which I do regularly because I'm of delicate physical as well as mental constitution. Calling Anointing of the Sick 'healing prayer' is probably the single most low-church thing we do.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Ted & Annette Fleming on September 07, 2012, 09:14:53 pm
Hi jmfcst :D

Hello Andrew


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on September 13, 2012, 09:25:08 pm
September 2012 Minnesota poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 43%
Illegal .............................................................. 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to provide that only a union of one
man and one woman shall be valid or
recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?

Yes - 48%
No - 47%
Not sure - 5%
Won't vote on the amendment - 0%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_912121.pdf

MN PPP results from late May/early June 2012: 47% legal, 42% illegal, 11% not sure
MN PPP results from January 2012: 43% legal, 47% illegal, 10% not sure
MN PPP results from May 2011: 46% legal, 45% illegal, 9% not sure

September 2012 poll on the Washington referendum:

A new law passed by the legislature would allow same-sex couples to marry in Washington state. Should this law be approved? Or rejected?

Approved - 56%
Rejected - 38%
Not sure - 6%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=331e05a7-633b-4775-b354-821f378f63f7

Up from 50%/43%/7% in June: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=2;10;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=0;3;6&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;27;4&GA=0;15;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;21;3&IN=0;11;4&IA=2;7;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=0;9;12&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;4&MN=2;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;4&NV=1;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=2;21;4&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=0;3;3&TN=0;11;3&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;7&WI=2;10;4&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;12&ME2=0;1;12&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=0;1;6)

------

Rhode Island had its primaries on Tuesday and things didn't change much. Delaware will probably beat them to it at this rate.

http://blog.thephoenix.com/BLOGS/notfornothing/archive/2012/09/11/tough-night-for-gay-marriage-supporters.aspx

Quote
Tonight's Democratic primaries were not kind to gay marriage supporters, who claimed just one of six key state senate races. Pro-same sex nuptials candidate Adam Satchell scored a decisive victory over Senator Michael Pinga. But five other gay marriage backers - David Gorman, Gene Dyszlewski, Laura Pisaturo, Lewis Pryeor, and Robert DaSilva - lost.

There will be opportunities for a couple of pick-ups in the general election come November. But advocates will be playing defense in a few places, too.

After tonight, then, it is hard to see a significant change in the balance of power in a state senate where about half of current members are opposed to gay marriage, a third are in support, and the rest are in the toss-up category, according to a Phoenix analysis.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on September 23, 2012, 06:47:44 am
A new Mason-Dixon poll in Minnesota for the "Star Tribune" shows the following:

Quote
The increasingly costly and bitter fight over a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage is a statistical dead heat, according to a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll.

Six weeks before Election Day, slightly more Minnesotans favor the amendment than oppose it, but that support also falls just short of the 50 percent needed to pass the measure.

Among likely voters, 49 percent would approve constitutional language that defines marriage as only the union of a man and woman. Another 47 percent oppose the measure, while 4 percent are undecided. Minnesota law requires any change to the Constitution to capture a majority of all ballots cast. That means a voter who skips the question is counted as a no vote.

While passions for and against a traditional definition of marriage run strong, the poll also shows that attitudes are shifting when it comes to civil unions.

The poll shows overwhelming support for civil unions that would offer gay and lesbian couples the same legal rights as marriage. Overall, 68 percent of respondents would support civil unions while only 23 percent would oppose them. The support cuts across every demographic and party line. The poll interviewed 800 likely voters between Sept. 17 and 19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/170854241.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on September 23, 2012, 01:28:43 pm
September 2012 Marquette Law School Wisconsin Poll

"Q31: Which comes closes to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry? Or, Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry? Or, There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship."

Allowed to legally marry - 48%
Civil unions - 25%
No legal recognition - 21%
Don't know - 4%
Refused - 2%

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MLSP11_Toplines.pdf (https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MLSP11_Toplines.pdf)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on September 23, 2012, 01:30:53 pm
A new Mason-Dixon poll in Minnesota for the "Star Tribune" shows the following:

Quote
The increasingly costly and bitter fight over a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage is a statistical dead heat, according to a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll.

Six weeks before Election Day, slightly more Minnesotans favor the amendment than oppose it, but that support also falls just short of the 50 percent needed to pass the measure.

Among likely voters, 49 percent would approve constitutional language that defines marriage as only the union of a man and woman. Another 47 percent oppose the measure, while 4 percent are undecided. Minnesota law requires any change to the Constitution to capture a majority of all ballots cast. That means a voter who skips the question is counted as a no vote.

While passions for and against a traditional definition of marriage run strong, the poll also shows that attitudes are shifting when it comes to civil unions.

The poll shows overwhelming support for civil unions that would offer gay and lesbian couples the same legal rights as marriage. Overall, 68 percent of respondents would support civil unions while only 23 percent would oppose them. The support cuts across every demographic and party line. The poll interviewed 800 likely voters between Sept. 17 and 19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/170854241.html

If the Democrats get the legislature back, they should try to push for civil union recognition because it looks like there is nothing in the constitutional amendment that prevents that.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on September 23, 2012, 01:40:08 pm
Maybe there's still some hope left for the otherwise progressive Minnesota ...

(But for it to pass, gay marriage would probably have to lead by 5-10 in the pre election polls, because of the "Gay Bradley Effect")


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ilikeverin on September 23, 2012, 02:51:31 pm
A new Mason-Dixon poll in Minnesota for the "Star Tribune" shows the following:

Quote
The increasingly costly and bitter fight over a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage is a statistical dead heat, according to a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll.

Six weeks before Election Day, slightly more Minnesotans favor the amendment than oppose it, but that support also falls just short of the 50 percent needed to pass the measure.

Among likely voters, 49 percent would approve constitutional language that defines marriage as only the union of a man and woman. Another 47 percent oppose the measure, while 4 percent are undecided. Minnesota law requires any change to the Constitution to capture a majority of all ballots cast. That means a voter who skips the question is counted as a no vote.

While passions for and against a traditional definition of marriage run strong, the poll also shows that attitudes are shifting when it comes to civil unions.

The poll shows overwhelming support for civil unions that would offer gay and lesbian couples the same legal rights as marriage. Overall, 68 percent of respondents would support civil unions while only 23 percent would oppose them. The support cuts across every demographic and party line. The poll interviewed 800 likely voters between Sept. 17 and 19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/170854241.html

If the Democrats get the legislature back, they should try to push for civil union recognition because it looks like there is nothing in the constitutional amendment that prevents that.

Yeah; it would never pass if it included anything but the weakest possible ban.  (Not that it's not still an awful thing to pass, but it could be worse :P)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Badger on September 25, 2012, 04:57:13 pm
I've always felt that the best tactic for gay marriage supporters is to get civil unions in place within their state, then go for marriage rights a few years down the road. "The sky will fall" argument/fear of the unknown is the strongest weapon the opponents have (see e.g. the Maine referendum where opponents ran a convincing ad campaign claiming a yes vote wouild require homosexuality to be taught in elementary schools). Civil Unions are much more popular, and after the world doesn't go to hell in a handbasket after they're instituted the concept of allowing actual bona-fide marriage becomes far more palatable to middle-aged and older swing voters.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on September 25, 2012, 09:59:54 pm
September 2012 Maine poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 52%
Illegal .............................................................. 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Question 1 would allow the State of Maine to
issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples.
If the election was today, would you vote yes or
no on question 1?

Yes - 52%
No - 44%
Not sure - 4%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ME_92012.pdf

ME PPP results from March 2012: 54% legal, 41% illegal, 5% not sure
ME PPP results from October 2011: 51% legal, 42% illegal, 8% not sure
ME PPP results from March 2011: 47% legal, 45% illegal, 8% not sure

September 2012 poll on the Washington referendum #2:

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/09/17/gay-marriage-pot-legalization-gain-elway-poll/

Quote
Referendum 74, approving same-sex marriage, is ahead 52-40 percent with 8 percent undecided.  Its lead has edged up from 49-39 percent in July.

----------------------

September 2012 Marquette Law School Wisconsin Poll

"Q31: Which comes closes to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry? Or, Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry? Or, There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship."

Allowed to legally marry - 48%
Civil unions - 25%
No legal recognition - 21%
Don't know - 4%
Refused - 2%

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MLSP11_Toplines.pdf (https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MLSP11_Toplines.pdf)

Wow, those numbers look a little too good.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 26, 2012, 01:18:26 am
Maybe there's still some hope left for the otherwise progressive Minnesota ...

(But for it to pass, gay marriage would probably have to lead by 5-10 in the pre election polls, because of the "Gay Bradley Effect")

Unlike California, Minnesota requires 50% of all ballots vote for an amendment for it to pass. 2.48% of Californians abstained on Prop. 8.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on September 26, 2012, 09:39:11 am
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor John Hickenlooper’s job performance?

Approve................. 54%
Disapprove............ 24%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Udall's job performance?

Approve .................45%
Disapprove.............34%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Michael Bennet's job performance?

Approve .................44%
Disapprove.............36%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Buck?

Favorable........................................................ 25%
Unfavorable .................................................... 46%

If you could do last fall’s election for US Senate over again, would you vote for Democrat Michael Bennet or Republican Ken Buck?

Michael Bennet ............................................... 55%
Ken Buck ........................................................ 38%

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 45%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry .................................................40%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry ......................31%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ...................27%

If there was an election for Congress today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?

Democratic candidate ..................................... 45%
Republican candidate ..................................... 40%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party?

Favorable........................................................ 38%
Unfavorable .................................................... 49%

Do you think prostitution should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 32%
Illegal .............................................................. 56%

Do you think marijuana usage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 51%
Illegal .............................................................. 38%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott McInnis?

Favorable........................................................ 14%
Unfavorable .................................................... 31%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Tancredo?

Favorable........................................................ 30%
Unfavorable .................................................... 43%

Would you support or oppose raising the income tax in Colorado from 4.63% to 5% and the sales tax from 2.9% to 3.0% in order to increase funding for public education?

Support ........................................................... 45%
Oppose ........................................................... 47%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_0811925.pdf

I'm in that 38%.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Averroës on September 26, 2012, 10:20:45 am
The 38% who would vote for Ken Buck, the 38% who think that marijuana use should be legal, or the 38% who have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on September 29, 2012, 11:48:12 pm
Gay Marriage heading for a blow-out victory in Maine:

Quote
* The referendum proposal to legalize same-sex marriage in Maine leads 57 percent to 36 percent in the poll, with 7 percent saying they are undecided.

http://www.onlinesentinel.com/news/king-by-less_-obama-by-more_2012-09-29.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on September 30, 2012, 10:36:12 am
Neat, a recent (September 2012) Illinois poll: http://capitolfax.com/2012/09/26/more-illinoisans-favor-gay-marriage-now-than-two-years-ago/

Quote
And here’s another result from the 2012 Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll…

Which of the following three statements comes closest to your position on the legal rights of gay and lesbian couples in Illinois?

Gay/lesbian couples should be allowed to legally marry - 43.6%
Gay/lesbian couples should be allowed to form civil unions - 31.8%
There should be no legal recognition of relationships between gay and lesbian couples - 20.2%
Other/ Don’t know - 4.4%

Quote
Compare those results to how the numbers looked two years ago, in the 2010 Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll…

Which of the following three statements comes closest to your position on the legal rights of gay and lesbian couples in Illinois?

Gay and lesbian couples should be allowed to legally marry - 33.6%
Gay and lesbian couples should be allowed to form civil unions, which would give them some legal rights - 33.9%
There should be no legal recognition of relationships between gay and lesbian couples - 26.5%
Other/Don’t know - 6.0%


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on September 30, 2012, 10:47:58 am
Gay Marriage heading for a blow-out victory in Maine:

Quote
* The referendum proposal to legalize same-sex marriage in Maine leads 57 percent to 36 percent in the poll, with 7 percent saying they are undecided.

http://www.onlinesentinel.com/news/king-by-less_-obama-by-more_2012-09-29.html

I will believe it when I see it... let's hope that happens on Election Day after the NOMmers run their ads with little children coming home and telling their parents they learned about sodomy in school and want to become gay.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2012, 11:20:59 am
SSM leads 49-39 in a new MD poll from the Baltimore Sun:

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-09-29/news/bs-md-poll-20120929_1_opinionworks-new-baltimore-sun-poll-voter-turnout


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on October 03, 2012, 01:26:53 am
SSM leads by 56-36 in Rhode Island:

http://www.wpri.com/generic/elections/polls/campaign-2012-exclusive-poll-results-sept-2012?chartid=21


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on October 03, 2012, 07:45:36 am
Gay Marriage heading for a blow-out victory in Maine:

Quote
* The referendum proposal to legalize same-sex marriage in Maine leads 57 percent to 36 percent in the poll, with 7 percent saying they are undecided.

http://www.onlinesentinel.com/news/king-by-less_-obama-by-more_2012-09-29.html

I will believe it when I see it... let's hope that happens on Election Day after the NOMmers run their ads with little children coming home and telling their parents they learned about sodomy in school and want to become gay.

Mommy! Today in class I learned that I can be a princess and marry another boy!


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2012, 01:27:28 am
Colorado (Univ. of Denver/Selzer):

8. Which best represents your view on same-sex relationships:

49% The law should allow same-sex couples to marry
24% The law should allow same-sex couples to form civil unions, but not marry
23% The law should not recognize same-sex relationships
  4% Not sure

http://debate2012.du.edu/media/documents/coloradovoterspoll.pdf


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2012, 01:35:14 am
Landslide victory ahead for the SSM referendum in WA:

55-40 support

http://www.krem.com/news/local/172959271.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nice Guy FF on October 07, 2012, 09:09:37 pm
Landslide victory ahead for the SSM referendum in WA:

55-40 support

http://www.krem.com/news/local/172959271.html

That doesn't look like a landslide to me.


Anyway, nice to see the club might get a few members this fall.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on October 18, 2012, 12:25:11 am
Minnesota SSM amendment gets close:

Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"

47% Yes (-3)
46% No (+3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2c5df6fe-ac56-44ec-ba5b-73fdf4769eab


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on October 18, 2012, 12:31:00 am
Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin:

Q27
Which comes closes to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry? Or, Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry? Or, There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship.
Allowed to legally marry 45%
Civil unions 29%
No legal recognition 22%
Don't know (v) 4%
Refused (v) 1%

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/MLSP13_Toplines_Likely.pdf (https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/MLSP13_Toplines_Likely.pdf)

This is the second straight poll by Marquette to have marriage equality leading!


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 18, 2012, 12:36:52 am
Minnesota SSM amendment gets close:

Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"

47% Yes (-3)
46% No (+3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2c5df6fe-ac56-44ec-ba5b-73fdf4769eab

damnit :(


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Meeker on October 18, 2012, 12:54:47 am
Minnesota SSM amendment gets close:

Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"

47% Yes (-3)
46% No (+3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2c5df6fe-ac56-44ec-ba5b-73fdf4769eab

damnit :(

It's moving in the right direction at least.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on October 18, 2012, 01:17:50 am
Another Minnesota poll from October: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/minnesota-marriage-amendment-narrowly-trails.html

Quote
PPP's newest poll on Minnesota's amendment to ban gay marriage finds it running slightly behind, with 46% of voters planning to support it, 49% opposed and 5% not sure. That represents a 4 point shift compared to a month ago when it led for passage 48-47.

The movement over the last month has been with independent voters. Where they supported the amendment 51/42 in September, they've now almost flipped and oppose it by a 52/42 margin. Women (43/51) are stronger in their opposition to it than men (49/47) are in their support. Most of the margin against the amendment is being provided by younger voters who say they plan to vote against it 53/38.

In general 47% of voters in the state say they support gay marriage to 43% who are opposed.

--------

These seem too good: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/poll-support-grows-for-same-sex-marriage-in-florida-ohio-and-virginia/2012/10/09/969bea0e-1220-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_story.html

Quote
October 9, 2012

A bare majority of voters in Florida and Ohio, and nearly half in Virginia, support the right of same-sex couples to wed, according to September Washington Post polls showing that the national trend toward accepting such unions has taken hold in these swing states.

In Florida, 54 percent of voters think same-sex marriage should be legal, while 33 percent say it should be illegal. In Ohio, 52 percent say it should be legal, while 37 percent say it should be illegal.

In Virginia, the nine-point gap between those who support and oppose same-sex marriage — 49 percent in favor and 40 percent opposed — represents a significant gain in support compared with a Post poll in May, when 46 thought it should be legal and 43 percent said it should be illegal.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 18, 2012, 01:21:47 am
It's definitely getting more popular. Bloomberg announced a new PAC to support moderates. One of the requirements for being a moderate is support of SSM.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on October 18, 2012, 07:15:30 am
Those Florida, Ohio and Virginia numbers are too good to be true, not that it matters. Those states aren't on the radar for same-sex marriage (as horrible as that sounds). As for Minnesota, those numbers also might be too good to be true - silver lining being that approve has to be above 50% to actually pass. So as long as neither are above a majority, it's fine.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 18, 2012, 11:31:38 am
On the bright side, it looks like the good guys will win in Maryland. It's leading 52-43 according to the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/maryland-leans-toward-historic-embrace-of-same-sex-marriage-in-vote-next-month/2012/10/18/a91dedba-1885-11e2-9855-71f2b202721b_story.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on October 18, 2012, 11:36:25 am
On the bright side, it looks like the good guys will win in Maryland. It's leading 52-43 according to the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/maryland-leans-toward-historic-embrace-of-same-sex-marriage-in-vote-next-month/2012/10/18/a91dedba-1885-11e2-9855-71f2b202721b_story.html

People up here are also considering it almost a foregone conclusion in Maine.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 18, 2012, 11:55:24 am
I'm just worried that in Maine there'll be a "I probably support this, but I'm kind of annoyed that they're already making me vote on it again" backlash.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on October 18, 2012, 12:08:30 pm
On the bright side, it looks like the good guys will win in Maryland. It's leading 52-43 according to the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/maryland-leans-toward-historic-embrace-of-same-sex-marriage-in-vote-next-month/2012/10/18/a91dedba-1885-11e2-9855-71f2b202721b_story.html

I don't think that's enough for it to pass. ftr, I have it winning in Maine and Washington, losing in Maryland and Minnesota.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Thomas D on October 18, 2012, 05:08:56 pm
I'm optimistic about my home state of Maryland.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on October 26, 2012, 10:26:21 am
Minnesota

St. Cloud State University poll shows the gay marriage ban failing:

Marriage amendment (likely voters)

44% vote for
51% vote against

http://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy/2012/10/st-cloud-state-poll-shows-slender-lead-opponents-marriage-amendment

Great news ... :)



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on October 28, 2012, 12:56:07 am
Gay Marriage now trails by 1 in MD:

47-46 illegal

Mostly because the Blacks switched over to the "illegal" side.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-ballot-poll-20121027,0,2752616,full.story


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on October 28, 2012, 02:24:19 am
Wtf.

Does Baltimore Sun have a good record?  I still expect it to pass, but that seems unexpected.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on October 28, 2012, 02:28:02 am
If we still can't get any non-New England states to vote for gay marriage I might actually be equally or more depressed about this country and its people than I'll be if Obama loses.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on October 28, 2012, 02:30:37 am
If we still can't get any non-New England states to vote for gay marriage I might actually be equally or more depressed about this country and its people than I'll be if Obama loses.

Washington looks good and Wisconsin might be a target in the next cycle or so.  It isn't all bad.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on October 28, 2012, 07:16:42 am
Gay Marriage now trails by 1 in MD:

47-46 illegal

Mostly because the Blacks switched over to the "illegal" side.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-ballot-poll-20121027,0,2752616,full.story

It begins.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on October 28, 2012, 08:40:34 am
In MN the hetero marriage amendment leads by 1 now:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/176007971.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: xavier110 on October 28, 2012, 10:33:38 am
LOL. I can't wait until the gay marriage questions fail in all 4 states.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on October 28, 2012, 11:23:42 am
In WA, the gay-marriage amendment is only ahead by 4 anymore according to a new poll:

49-45 in favor of gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/24/new-poll-points-to-tightening-race-on-gay-marriage


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 28, 2012, 02:07:22 pm
:(


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on October 28, 2012, 02:13:23 pm
In MN the hetero marriage amendment leads by 1 now:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/176007971.html

18-34-year-olds only oppose it 54-44?  Um, okay.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on October 28, 2012, 04:34:23 pm
This is just unutterably upsetting and disheartening.

Even if retaining restrictions on the marriage franchise that cause more and more legal problems and social friction as their existence continues by narrow margins in popular referenda would somehow help resolve the real crisis of late secular modernity that this country and many others are in (which it won't), the fact that it takes all sorts of misleading or flat-out inaccurate trash advertising every single time to sway this completely negates any sort of moral or religious high ground these opponents could conceivably have otherwise had.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Penelope on October 28, 2012, 04:51:31 pm
Here we go again.. =(


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Oakvale on October 28, 2012, 04:52:32 pm
I heard recently that undecided voters on gay marriage referenda tend to break very heavily against same-sex marriage, for whatever reason. I expect the Minneosta amendment will pass, unfortunately. Washington will be close. Ugh. :(


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on October 28, 2012, 04:55:04 pm
The DNC should really start pouring some funds into this.  But with one week left to go, how much can you do?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Oakvale on October 28, 2012, 04:57:38 pm
Come to think of it, has gay marriage ever survived a popular vote in the US? I can't think of one offhand, which is kind of disheartening.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on October 28, 2012, 05:08:17 pm
Come to think of it, has gay marriage ever survived a popular vote in the US? I can't think of one offhand, which is kind of disheartening.

No. Only one anti-gay ballot measure of any kind, a particularly draconian one in Arizona before that state slammed the dial as far right as it could go without breaking, has ever even failed.

Again, it will still probably get carried in Maine and Washington is more likely than not to be a squeaker, in which I think we still have a slight but diminished edge. Either or both of those would be hugely important symbolic as well as practical victories considering the total lack of any previous victories of this kind. Minnesota might be saved by the fact that abstentions count as No votes on ballot questions there. I'm very depressed about Maryland, though.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ilikeverin on October 28, 2012, 06:13:43 pm
In MN the hetero marriage amendment leads by 1 now:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/176007971.html

18-34-year-olds only oppose it 54-44?  Um, okay.

Um, more confusing still: 65+ oppose it 51-43?  What?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 28, 2012, 06:30:28 pm
The MN poll is very R-leaning (Obama is only up 3), so maybe we'll pull that one off after all.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Seattle on October 28, 2012, 06:46:12 pm
In WA, the gay-marriage amendment is only ahead by 4 anymore according to a new poll:

49-45 in favor of gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/24/new-poll-points-to-tightening-race-on-gay-marriage

I wouldn't be too worried, it's Elway and they aren't a great polster.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Frodo on October 28, 2012, 06:46:42 pm
In WA, the gay-marriage amendment is only ahead by 4 anymore according to a new poll:

49-45 in favor of gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/24/new-poll-points-to-tightening-race-on-gay-marriage

I wouldn't be too worried, it's Elway and they aren't a great polster.

So what do you think the actual numbers are? 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Seattle on October 28, 2012, 06:59:12 pm
In WA, the gay-marriage amendment is only ahead by 4 anymore according to a new poll:

49-45 in favor of gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/24/new-poll-points-to-tightening-race-on-gay-marriage

I wouldn't be too worried, it's Elway and they aren't a great polster.

So what do you think the actual numbers are? 

I don't think R-74's support is quite as high as what PPP, SUSA, and the others have showed, but I believe 51-53% will be the likely range for it. I like that the Washington Poll came out with those "adjusted" numbers to try and account for a presumed Bradley Effect. Even then, R-74 was leading 53-46, or something like that. I've always thought this was going to be tight, but in the end, Seattle and Eastside voting should be able to carry it through.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on October 29, 2012, 07:38:15 am
Yeah, guys. Calm down. Bad polls happen, although I'm inclined to believe the actual numbers are probably in the single digits everywhere rather than double digits that other polls show. Remember, SUSA is great in Washington and pretty much nailed R-71's numbers. They were even the only poll that initially had it much closer than the other polls. The only one I'm unhappy about is Maryland.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: krazen1211 on October 29, 2012, 02:17:40 pm
These fresh polls quite clearly show that Barack Obama has attacked his own religion as well as the people's values.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on October 29, 2012, 03:40:31 pm
These fresh polls quite clearly show that Barack Obama has attacked his own religion as well as the people's values.

They actually show that he's 'attacked' about 45-50% of the people's values, but if you say so. Also, Obama's a nondenominational Christian who used to be Congregationalist. I'm not sure how familiar you are with the UCC, but...


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on October 29, 2012, 04:59:57 pm
In 2008 there were 2,920,214 votes cast in Minnesota. There were 2,776,561 votes cast "Yes" or "No" for the Constitutional amendment, so almost 5% of voters left it blank. Based on those numbers the "Yes" side would need around 52.6% of the votes of those cast for it to pass it so 47-48 "No" might be enough to kill it. Admittedly the 2008 vote was on a far less hot button issue, but even with half the blanks it still needs over 51%.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on November 01, 2012, 10:16:18 am
Good news for the pro-gay-marriage side today:

WA - SurveyUSA

52% Support
43% Oppose

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/11/01/king-5-poll-governors-race-down-to-the-wire

MD - Goucher College Poll

55% Support
39% Oppose

http://de.scribd.com/doc/111599471/Goucher-Poll-Results-1


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 01, 2012, 10:27:24 am
I think it'll pass in Washington. We've seen conflicting numbers in Maryland, but I'm not optimistic.

Meanwhile, in MN (SUSA (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d67b9051-ae5f-4d9b-890a-eca249f45000)):
Yes 48%
No 47%

:(


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2012, 10:51:37 am
We just have to win one of these to get the ball rolling...please Washington save the skin of decency, man.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on November 01, 2012, 10:51:52 am
Meanwhile, in MN (SUSA (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d67b9051-ae5f-4d9b-890a-eca249f45000)):
Yes 48%
No 47%

:(

Not enough to pass under Minnesota law.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on November 01, 2012, 10:55:45 am
Meanwhile, in MN (SUSA (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d67b9051-ae5f-4d9b-890a-eca249f45000)):
Yes 48%
No 47%

:(

Not enough to pass under Minnesota law.

Well, you have to factor in about a 5-point Gaydley-Effect.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on November 01, 2012, 10:59:39 am
Marquette University Poll:

Q27
Which comes closes to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry? Or, Gay
couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry? Or, There should be no
legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship.
N %
Allowed to legally marry 547 44%
Civil unions 360 29%
No legal recognition 278 22%
Don't know (v) 44 4%
Refused (v) 14 1%

This has been consistant throughout all of Marquette's polling


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 02, 2012, 11:24:30 pm
The Maine ballot measure leads 52-45, says PPP. Cautiously optimistic here. Anyone remember what the polls were saying here before the last vote?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/obama-king-marriage-lead-in-maine.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on November 02, 2012, 11:36:22 pm
The Maine ballot measure leads 52-45, says PPP. Cautiously optimistic here. Anyone remember what the polls were saying here before the last vote?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/obama-king-marriage-lead-in-maine.html

PPP did two polls in the last couple weeks before the initiative in 2009, the first was a 48-48 tie, the last was 51-47 in favor of passing the repeal, which was pretty much exactly the final result. The language on this initiative is pretty simple, yes for gay marriage, no for keeping the ban, and polling has been much more favorable this time around, though for obvious reasons we should remain cautious. But gay marriage is in much better shape in the polls of Maine this time around.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on November 04, 2012, 01:39:43 am
Minnesota (PPP)

Q2   Should the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?
Yes.................................................................. 45%
No ................................................................... 52%
Notsure.......................................................... 3%
Won't vote on the amendment........................ 0%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_1103.pdf (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_1103.pdf)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: politicallefty on November 04, 2012, 02:08:00 am
That's very good news if true. Hopefully, that'll be enough of a lead for the No side to defeat the hate amendment.

Unrelated, but the voter ID amendment is also trailing 46-51.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: morgieb on November 04, 2012, 07:03:26 am
Great stuff!


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2012, 03:21:08 am
We just have to win one of these to get the ball rolling...please Washington save the skin of decency, man.

There's a decent chance WA, MD, and ME will be legalizing gay marriage tomorrow. MN could go either way, but whatever, either way there's no gay marriage.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2012, 03:23:45 am
In 2008 there were 2,920,214 votes cast in Minnesota. There were 2,776,561 votes cast "Yes" or "No" for the Constitutional amendment, so almost 5% of voters left it blank. Based on those numbers the "Yes" side would need around 52.6% of the votes of those cast for it to pass it so 47-48 "No" might be enough to kill it. Admittedly the 2008 vote was on a far less hot button issue, but even with half the blanks it still needs over 51%.

2.48% abstained on Prop. 8. We don't have that rule, so it still only needed 50%, but it did get a majority of all those whose voted in that election. So yeah, 51.0% would fail if it has the same number of abstentions.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass! on November 05, 2012, 06:34:46 am
We just have to win one of these to get the ball rolling...please Washington save the skin of decency, man.

There's a decent chance WA, MD, and ME will be legalizing gay marriage tomorrow. MN could go either way, but whatever, either way there's no gay marriage.
Nope. Maine already rejected homosexual "marriage" 3 years ago for chrissake, its not going to magically turn around and embrace homosexual "marriage". American Christians know their Bible history.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2012, 08:09:48 am
Someone save his quotes.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass! on November 05, 2012, 08:24:02 am
Someone save his quotes.
I beg your pardon? I've had one of my posts deleted by a particularly Stalinist moderator today, but I have high hopes that most moderators are more open to a diverse ideological presence on this forum. I will not be banned for being a passionate Christian Conservative.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2012, 08:25:59 am
For when you're proven wrong, that is. Some people here delete their posts when that happens.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass! on November 05, 2012, 08:35:01 am
For when you're proven wrong, that is. Some people here delete their posts when that happens.
It is a sin to be deceitful. I will not be proven wrong, but if I was I would not sink so low as to delete my posts!


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 06, 2012, 04:31:30 am
Someone save his quotes.
I beg your pardon? I've had one of my posts deleted by a particularly Stalinist moderator today, but I have high hopes that most moderators are more open to a diverse ideological presence on this forum. I will not be banned for being a passionate Christian Conservative.

There are a number of gay posters on this board who are very emotionally involved with the results of these propositions. You certainly don't have to be supportive, but we do ask you be civil and respectful of others.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Franzl on November 06, 2012, 04:50:56 am
Good luck on these. I hope at least WA votes in favor, but I'm always sceptical on gay marriage referenda.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Blue3 on November 07, 2012, 03:10:25 am
Majority of US-born Latinos support Gay Marriage by 56%


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass! on November 07, 2012, 03:38:05 am
Majority of US-born Latinos support Gay Marriage by 56%
source?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on November 07, 2012, 07:22:26 am
How is same-sex marriage losing the battle, demographically? The burden of proof is on you to provide. The results from tonight prove otherwise.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Blue3 on November 07, 2012, 08:30:33 am
In March, it was 56%.


NOW... it is 59% of Latinos nationwide who support Same-Sex Marriage

(and 52% of African-Americans nationwide support SSM now)

http://news.yahoo.com/majority-latinos-support-state-recognition-gay-marriage-010146448--abc-news-politics.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Thomas D on November 07, 2012, 05:50:39 pm
I'm optimistic about my home state of Maryland.

My Faith was rewarded. :D


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Benj on November 07, 2012, 06:52:27 pm
(and 52% of African-Americans nationwide support SSM now)

Kinda skeptical of the 52% number given the result in PG County (51-49 Yes) since the non-black vote in PG County probably looked a lot like MontCo's 65-35 Yes. (Also, PG County blacks are higher income and more educated than the overall black community nationwide, both traits that correlate strongly with gay marriage support.) That said, it's dramatic progress nonetheless, and fighting a near-tie with black voters is still great news.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2012, 07:46:29 pm
Where does marriage equality go next?

Logical next states:

- California (Will probably wait until after the Supreme Court rules on Prop 8)
- Colorado
- Delaware
- Illinois (Redistricting greatly helped the Democrats here) 
- New Mexico
- Oregon
- Rhode Island 

Longshot tries:

- Florida
- Minnesota
- Nevada


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on November 07, 2012, 08:04:41 pm
Good results.

Where does marriage equality go next?

Logical next states:

- California (Will probably wait until after the Supreme Court rules on Prop 8)
- Colorado
- Delaware
- Illinois (Redistricting greatly helped the Democrats here)  
- New Mexico
- Oregon
- Rhode Island  

Longshot tries:

- Florida
- Minnesota
- Nevada

I think the Supreme Court will narrowly overturn DOMA (allow federal recognition of same-sex marriages in states where it's legal but not force recognition between states).

For the future, I think California and Illinois will legalize it in 2013 via court rulings (SCOTUS declines Prop 8 appeal and the IL Supreme Court overturns the state's statutory ban) plus Delaware through the state legislature.

Rhode Island and Hawaii really need to get it together and Minnesota/Colorado should avoid the civil union route IMO now that Democrats control these state legislatures again though Colorado does have a constitutional amendment to deal with (would be nice to have a Western sweep with CO/OR/NV in 2014/2016). Lawsuits in Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and New Jersey are probably the quickest for those states considering the Republican governors.

I doubt Florida will be soon as mentioned previously that state constitutional amendments there now need 60% to pass. I can't really think of any near-term ones beyond the ones you mentioned considering the levels of support. Maybe Wisconsin (forgot there's no initiatives in WI) and Arizona...


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on November 07, 2012, 09:05:59 pm
I think the Supreme Court will narrowly overturn DOMA (allow force federal recognition of same-sex marriages in states where it's legal but not force recognition between states).

First off, overturning DOMA would not allow Federal recognition, it would force Federal recognition.  There's absolutely nothing preventing Congress from passing a repeal of DOMA and sending it to Obama to be signed except it doesn't want to.

Secondly, of the possible outcomes, that's not really one of them.  If the Supreme Court did that it would make the Federal government subordinate to the State governments on a particular subject.  That's not going to happen, since the trend in judicial decisions of late has been to emphasize the dual sovereignty of the Federal and State governments.  As such a decision that allows State governments to decide the issue how it wants to while denying the Federal government that option simply will not happen.  If DOMA is overturned, it will be on grounds that effectively legalize gay marriage in all fifty States as well.

I see only two possible outcomes of the DOMA case.  Either DOMA is upheld and the Federal and State governments remain free to define marriage as they wish, or DOMA is struck down and both Federal and State governments are forced to provide recognition to same-sex marriages. I think that the former is likelier than the latter and I hope I'm right.  While I favor extending government recognition to same-sex marriages, I think it should be done via the legislative rather than the judicial process.  Using the courts as a quasi-legislature is destructive of our democracy.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on November 07, 2012, 09:22:08 pm
I was considering federal recognition as having more soft opposition compared to forcing recognition between states so I figured maybe they'd take a moderate hero route that offends the least people and do it in a way that doesn't make it a permanent decision (something like making the Medicaid expansion optional).

I don't really see the problem with court rulings overturning the legislature on civil rights/liberties issues. They could use a slap on quite a few things.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ilikeverin on November 07, 2012, 09:43:31 pm
I'm optimistic about my home state of Maryland.

My Faith was rewarded. :D

Heh, I got two homestates to be nice to teh gayz.  So proud! ;D


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on November 07, 2012, 09:46:53 pm
I was considering federal recognition as having more soft opposition compared to forcing recognition between states so I figured maybe they'd take a moderate hero route that offends the least people and do it in a way that doesn't make it a permanent decision (something like making the Medicaid expansion optional).

Except your moderate hero route ain't so moderate. You like it because a few states happen to have adopted laws on the subject that you like and you want them to be able to force the Federal government to go along with them.  But what if the situation were reversed and a few states had adopted a law you didn't like and the courts were to force the Federal government to follow that law because the States had adopted it?  Indeed, by your own moderate hero position, if the Federal government repealed DOMA on its own and wanted to extend Federal benefits to same-sex couples in a state that prohibited construing a same-sex relationship as being equivalent to marriage, it couldn't, since it would be using a different definition that the State government in question had decided.

It is because I am a true federalist that I do not want the States to be able to force the Federal government to decide what to do on this issue or any other issue, save in the case of some constitutional provision that would bind both the State and Federal governments.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on November 07, 2012, 10:26:15 pm
I was considering federal recognition as having more soft opposition compared to forcing recognition between states so I figured maybe they'd take a moderate hero route that offends the least people and do it in a way that doesn't make it a permanent decision (something like making the Medicaid expansion optional).

Except your moderate hero route ain't so moderate. You like it because a few states happen to have adopted laws on the subject that you like and you want them to be able to force the Federal government to go along with them.  But what if the situation were reversed and a few states had adopted a law you didn't like and the courts were to force the Federal government to follow that law because the States had adopted it?  Indeed, by your own moderate hero position, if the Federal government repealed DOMA on its own and wanted to extend Federal benefits to same-sex couples in a state that prohibited construing a same-sex relationship as being equivalent to marriage, it couldn't, since it would be using a different definition that the State government in question had decided.

It is because I am a true federalist that I do not want the States to be able to force the Federal government to decide what to do on this issue or any other issue, save in the case of some constitutional provision that would bind both the State and Federal governments.

Slipping through the states is not my preferred option (I would prefer a full 50 state federal mandate but it's probably too soon for that), I was talking about what I thought was most likely.

What I would really like is to abolish the states. I don't see them as some type of 'free enablers' but as a great way to divert attention and focus for divide and conquer techniques and as loopholes for national standards. I think we would have dealt more effectively with things like healthcare years ago if we had a unicameral national legislature.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on November 07, 2012, 10:28:33 pm
What I would really like is to abolish the states. I don't see them as some type of 'free enablers' but as a great way to divert attention and focus for divide and conquer techniques and as loopholes for national standards. I think we would have dealt more effectively with things like healthcare years ago if we had a unicameral national legislature.

A man after my own heart.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on November 07, 2012, 10:46:58 pm
What I would really like is to abolish the states. I don't see them as some type of 'free enablers' but as a great way to divert attention and focus for divide and conquer techniques and as loopholes for national standards. I think we would have dealt more effectively with things like healthcare years ago if we had a unicameral national legislature.

A man after my own heart.

<3


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on December 05, 2012, 03:22:15 pm
NJ (PPP):

53-36 legal

IL (PPP):

47-42 legal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ILNJ_120512.pdf


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on December 07, 2012, 03:32:56 pm
Oregon (PPP):

Q21 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Oregon, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 54%
Should not....................................................... 40%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_12712.pdf

Georgia (PPP):

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Georgia, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 27%
Should not....................................................... 65%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_120512.pdf


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Sbane on December 07, 2012, 06:12:46 pm
The above numbers are why we eventually need a Supreme Court decision to institute gay marriage across the country. I just hope the end result is more like Loving v. Virginia as opposed to Roe v. Wade. I think it will be the former....

Also Blacks support gay marriage more than Whites. That had to be said.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Benj on December 07, 2012, 06:15:49 pm
What I would really like is to abolish the states. I don't see them as some type of 'free enablers' but as a great way to divert attention and focus for divide and conquer techniques and as loopholes for national standards. I think we would have dealt more effectively with things like healthcare years ago if we had a unicameral national legislature.

A man after my own heart.

And mine. (Nothing wrong with states per se, though. The real problem is that Congress does not have plenary power to overturn state actions.)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on December 07, 2012, 07:09:32 pm
Oregon (PPP):

Q21 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Oregon, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 54%
Should not....................................................... 40%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_12712.pdf

Georgia (PPP):

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Georgia, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 27%
Should not....................................................... 65%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_120512.pdf

Interesting thing about the Georgia is that if you put together the people that support same-sex marriage and civil unions together you get 57% for some form of legal recognition. I see that to even be a big deal! 

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry .............................................................. 24%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil    unions but not marry ....................................... 33%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ....................................... 40%
Notsure.......................................................... 3%


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Benj on December 07, 2012, 07:11:18 pm
Oregon (PPP):

Q21 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Oregon, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 54%
Should not....................................................... 40%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_12712.pdf

Georgia (PPP):

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Georgia, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 27%
Should not....................................................... 65%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_120512.pdf

Interesting thing about the Georgia is that if you put together the people that support same-sex marriage and civil unions together you get 57% for some form of legal recognition. I see that to even be a big deal! 

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry .............................................................. 24%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil    unions but not marry ....................................... 33%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ....................................... 40%
Notsure.......................................................... 3%

Until you realize that nearly everyone who says "civil unions but not marriage" votes against civil unions at the ballot box.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Lief 🐋 on December 07, 2012, 08:14:36 pm
The low numbers in Illinois are surprising.

Also these state numbers don't square with national numbers showing gay marriage support at about 50%.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Sbane on December 07, 2012, 08:27:56 pm
The low numbers in Illinois are surprising.

Also these state numbers don't square with national numbers showing gay marriage support at about 50%.

Maybe it's just PPP showing lower numbers for gay marriage support than there is?

Also we shouldn't be surprised at lower numbers for gay marriage in the Midwest. Still, Illinois should be higher than that if half of the people in this country support gay marriage.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on December 07, 2012, 10:46:53 pm
Oregon (PPP):

Q21 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Oregon, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 54%
Should not....................................................... 40%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_12712.pdf

Georgia (PPP):

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Georgia, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 27%
Should not....................................................... 65%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_120512.pdf

Interesting thing about the Georgia is that if you put together the people that support same-sex marriage and civil unions together you get 57% for some form of legal recognition. I see that to even be a big deal! 

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry .............................................................. 24%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil    unions but not marry ....................................... 33%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ....................................... 40%
Notsure.......................................................... 3%

Until you realize that nearly everyone who says "civil unions but not marriage" votes against civil unions at the ballot box.

When has Civil Unions exclusively been on the ballot box? Also isn't this a change in the numbers?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on December 08, 2012, 12:00:55 am
The Winthrop Poll (http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804&ekmensel=fee512e3_566_0_9804_3) had a question in their latest survey which was about same-sex divorce rather than about same-sex marriage. No questions about marriage or civil unions. 929 respondents and the result was 37.3% pro vs. 49.5% con.

Regardless of your attitudes toward same sex marriage, do you think South Carolina should or should not permit gay couples who were married in other states to have their divorce decided under the rules of South Carolina law?

Very Strongly Should: 20.5%
Somewhat Strongly Should: 16.8%

Somewhat Strongly Should Not: 11.6%
Very Strongly Should Not: 37.9%

Not Sure/ Don’t Know: 10.3%

Refused to Answer: 2.8%


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on December 08, 2012, 12:27:51 am
When has Civil Unions exclusively been on the ballot box?

Washington 2009.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on December 11, 2012, 02:37:39 pm
South Carolina (PPP (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_1211.pdf))

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed, or not?
It should be allowed 27%
It should not ........... .62%
Not sure ................. .10%

Q11 Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

25% - Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry
29% - Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry
43% - There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship
4% - Not sure

So it looks like if it weren't for the fact that likely any Republican who voted for it would get primaried, civil unions would be passable in South Carolina.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: danny on December 11, 2012, 02:40:21 pm
South Carolina (PPP (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_1211.pdf))

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed, or not?
It should be allowed 27%
It should not ........... .62%
Not sure ................. .10%

Q11 Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

25% - Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry
29% - Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry
43% - There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship
4% - Not sure

So it looks like if it weren't for the fact that likely any Republican who voted for it would get primaried, civil unions would be passable in South Carolina.

I doubt it, people who say they support civil unions but not marriage usually vote against civil unions when it comes up.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on December 11, 2012, 03:01:51 pm
It's a 9 point polling margin now and it would be a minimum of 2 years before a constitutional amendment to allow civil unions could go before the voters.  Given current trends, I'd expect that margin to widen in those 2 years, so I'm not as pessimistic about the chances of its passage as you are Danny.  Not that I see any chance it would get put before the voters of this state in 2014.  It would require either a far greater polling margin and/or the Democrats miraculously regaining control of both houses of the General Assembly.  Maybe in 2020 at the earliest if the US Supreme Court hasn't decided the issue for all the States sooner.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on December 11, 2012, 04:06:04 pm
When has Civil Unions exclusively been on the ballot box?

Washington 2009.

Colorado had a referendum in 2006, but it was the year of Ted Haggard, and scandals about gays bring down gay rights referenda even if they're about hypocrites.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Sbane on December 11, 2012, 04:14:43 pm
South Carolina (PPP (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_1211.pdf))

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed, or not?
It should be allowed 27%
It should not ........... .62%
Not sure ................. .10%

Q11 Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

25% - Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry
29% - Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry
43% - There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship
4% - Not sure

So it looks like if it weren't for the fact that likely any Republican who voted for it would get primaried, civil unions would be passable in South Carolina.

Again, Blacks are more supportive of gay marriage than Whites, just like in GA.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: danny on December 11, 2012, 04:31:35 pm

Again, Blacks are more supportive of gay marriage than Whites, just like in GA.

I wonder how this would look like in non-southern states.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: shua on December 13, 2012, 01:38:40 am

Again, Blacks are more supportive of gay marriage than Whites, just like in GA.

I wonder how this would look like in non-southern states.

probably with blacks more supportive in the Midwest and PA, and less in the rest of the Northeast and the Pacific.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on December 13, 2012, 05:03:51 pm
Of course, in the south, "white person" is almost synonymous with "Republican." So it's no surprise that when "black person" is then synonymous with "Democrat," the black folk turn out to be slightly more supportive of gay rights than hardcore white religious conservatives.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Badger on December 14, 2012, 09:33:46 pm
When has Civil Unions exclusively been on the ballot box?

Washington 2009.

Colorado had a referendum in 2006, but it was the year of Ted Haggard, and scandals about gays bring down gay rights referenda even if they're about hypocrites.

So, twice then? That's hardly much of a trend to create a rule of thumb about.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: LiberalJunkie on February 13, 2013, 08:04:13 pm
North Carolina (PPP (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_213.pdf))

Q18 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in North Carolina, or not?
It should be allowed ........................................ 38%
It should not .................................................... 54%
Not sure  9%

Alaska (PPP (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AK_208.pdf))

Q5 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Alaska, or not?
It should be allowed ........................................ 43%
It should not .................................................... 51%
Not sure  6%



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on March 26, 2013, 09:12:57 am
NJ (Quinnipiac):

Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?

64-30 support

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1872


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on March 26, 2013, 09:34:05 am
NJ (Quinnipiac):

Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?

64-30 support

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1872

In January 2012, Quinnipiac found 52%-42%.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/01/poll_majority_of_nj_voters_sup_1.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: HokeyDood on March 26, 2013, 01:23:41 pm
NJ (Quinnipiac):

Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?

64-30 support

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1872

Did I not say but a few months ago we would be one of the best on this issue? 

Oh... and the South still blows the big one on gay marriage.  Who would've thought? 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nhoj on April 01, 2013, 04:31:33 pm
Uni poll shows 45% for and 46% against in VA.
http://www.umw.edu/news/2013/03/31/umw-survey-shows-virginians-divided-on-same-sex-marriage/


Title: ... and now the New Jersey GOP rank and file
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on April 01, 2013, 05:52:47 pm
NJ (Quinnipiac):

Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?

64-30 support

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1872

Did I not say but a few months ago we would be one of the best on this issue?  

Oh... and the South still blows the big one on gay marriage.  Who would've thought?  

Major point from the poll: Even Republicans in New Jersey support SSM, 47% to 46%.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: morgieb on April 01, 2013, 07:35:24 pm
Wow @ the New Jersey poll.

Any chance of getting a veto-proof majority on SSM in New Jersey.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: MaxQue on April 01, 2013, 07:52:40 pm
I think than the plan at a moment was to pass a referendum on gay marriage, as Christie would have difficuties to veto it and be able to justify it.

But, perhaps they changed their mind.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on April 01, 2013, 08:47:36 pm
Christie is the person who suggested that referendum.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: MaxQue on April 01, 2013, 10:19:34 pm
Christie is the person who suggested that referendum.

I suppose it's proof than he wants to run for Presidency. Nobody can attack him on letting people voting.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: politicallefty on April 02, 2013, 06:00:17 am
Unfortunately, the Democrats in the NJ Legislature took the "principled stance" and didn't take up Christie's offer for a referendum. There may be times when it's okay to take a stance like that, but not when you can actually win. Marriage equality almost certainly would have won at the ballot box in 2012 (and quite possibly in prior years as well). If the Supreme Court does not make a 50-state ruling this year, NJ Democrats had better take up Christie's offer ASAP.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Sbane on April 02, 2013, 07:30:03 am
Unfortunately, the Democrats in the NJ Legislature took the "principled stance" and didn't take up Christie's offer for a referendum. There may be times when it's okay to take a stance like that, but not when you can actually win. Marriage equality almost certainly would have won at the ballot box in 2012 (and quite possibly in prior years as well). If the Supreme Court does not make a 50-state ruling this year, NJ Democrats had better take up Christie's offer ASAP.
What incentive to they have to get same sex marriage passed now? They can just use this as another issue to campaign against the republicans.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Mr. Illini on April 02, 2013, 07:28:20 pm
Illinois Same-Sex Marriage Legalization:

50% Support
29% Oppose
20% Unsure/Mixed Feelings

Breakdown:

Chicago - 56% Support
Suburbs - 52% Support
Downstate - 48% Support

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20130219/BLOGS02/130219779/illinoisans-back-gay-marriage-50-29-crains-ipsos-poll

Two things stand out to me here: 1) a lot of people are on the fence 2) downstate shows more support than I would have guessed.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on April 07, 2013, 08:49:47 am
Now even KANSAS with majority gay marriage support (even though the question wording is different):

Should same-sex couples be able to share in the legal benefits of marriage, such as the right to inherit property and the right to make medical decisions for one another? Or should the legal benefits of marriage be restricted only to couples consisting of a man and a woman?

60% Same-sex Couples
38% Man And a Woman

Proposition 8 was found unconsitutional by a federal district court in 2010. That ruling was upheld by a federal appeals court in 2012. Now the case has reached the Supreme Court of the United States. How should the Supreme Court rule? Should it uphold the appeals court ruling, which would end Proposition 8? Should it overturn the appeals court ruling, which would leave Proposition 8 in effect? Or do you not know enough to say?

42% Uphold The Appeals Court
40% Overturn The Appeals Court

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=323d68ba-283b-470a-8314-eb5a0c762127

And CALIFORNIA:

Should same-sex couples be able to share in the legal benefits of marriage, such as the right to inherit property and the right to make medical decisions for one another? Or should the legal benefits of marriage be restricted only to couples consisting of a man and a woman?

67% Same-sex Couples
30% Man And a Woman

Proposition 8 was found unconsitutional by a federal district court in 2010. That ruling was upheld by a federal appeals court in 2012. Now the case has reached the Supreme Court of the United States. How should the Supreme Court rule? Should it uphold the appeals court ruling, which would end Proposition 8? Should it overturn the appeals court ruling, which would leave Proposition 8 in effect? Or do you not know enough to say?

52% Uphold The Appeals Court
32% Overturn The Appeals Court

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=52e09f6d-6848-43ab-b86d-fc353833b3f9


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: danny on April 07, 2013, 12:21:42 pm
You can't call that support for gay marriage, since the poll didn't ask that.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Benj on April 07, 2013, 04:23:29 pm
Yeah. It vaguely looks like a two-option civil-unions-or-nothing poll, which is interesting as such polls are rare except that we know a lot of people lie and say they support civil unions while voting against them. The second poll is probably close to an actual gay marriage support poll, although of course almost all of the undecideds would vote against gay marriage, as they always do (so 42-40 means an actual result of about 44-56, and 52-32 means an actual result of about 54-46). Still, progress.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: shua on April 07, 2013, 06:04:43 pm
I have a feeling a Prop 8 poll with that wording would confuse a large number of people anywhere outside CA.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on April 24, 2013, 10:03:58 am
Colorado favors gay marriage

-Colorado voters like the civil unions bill the legislature passed earlier this year, supporting it by a 50/38 margin. But they'd also like to take it a step further, supporting full marriage rights for same sex couples by a 51/43 spread. Voters under 30 favor it by a 74/17 margin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/colorado-favors-gay-marriage.html#more


Title: AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin
Post by: Tender Branson on May 14, 2013, 09:34:44 am
AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin:

By a ratio of 55 percent to 35 percent, Arizonans say they favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry. Majorities in the following groups appear to have locked arms in support of such unions: women (60%), Hispanics (75%), liberals (67%), moderates (64%), registered Independents (64%), Democrats (70%), and voters under 55 years of age (60%).

http://de.scribd.com/doc/141390200/Rocky-Mountain-Arizona-poll-May-2013


Title: Re: AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin
Post by: pbrower2a on May 14, 2013, 10:24:35 am
AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin:

By a ratio of 55 percent to 35 percent, Arizonans say they favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry. Majorities in the following groups appear to have locked arms in support of such unions: women (60%), Hispanics (75%), liberals (67%), moderates (64%), registered Independents (64%), Democrats (70%), and voters under 55 years of age (60%).

http://de.scribd.com/doc/141390200/Rocky-Mountain-Arizona-poll-May-2013

This pollster said that Arizona was in play late in the 2012 campaign. Beware!


Title: Re: AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin
Post by: True Federalist on May 14, 2013, 06:37:40 pm
AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin

As long as Republicans are in control of the Arizona legislature, what matters is not overall support, but support among Republican primary voters.


Title: Re: AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin
Post by: publicunofficial on May 14, 2013, 08:46:52 pm
AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin

As long as Republicans are in control of the Arizona legislature, what matters is not overall support, but support among Republican primary voters.

Does Arizona have an Initiative system in place? That way they could bypass the legislature entirely.


Title: Re: AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin
Post by: True Federalist on May 14, 2013, 11:18:27 pm
Does Arizona have an Initiative system in place? That way they could bypass the legislature entirely.

Yes, but a constitutional amendment requires a ton of voters to sign the petition, 15% of those who voted in the last gubernatorial election, or a bit over 250K.  I don't see that happening anytime soon.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Sbane on May 14, 2013, 11:55:28 pm
Does Arizona have an Initiative system in place? That way they could bypass the legislature entirely.

Yes, but a constitutional amendment requires a ton of voters to sign the petition, 15% of those who voted in the last gubernatorial election, or a bit over 250K.  I don't see that happening anytime soon.

For an issue like Gay Marriage, I think it could happen.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 15, 2013, 12:02:13 am
Does Arizona have an Initiative system in place? That way they could bypass the legislature entirely.

Yes, but a constitutional amendment requires a ton of voters to sign the petition, 15% of those who voted in the last gubernatorial election, or a bit over 250K.  I don't see that happening anytime soon.

For an issue like Gay Marriage, I think it could happen.

It's certainly more likely than the legislative method.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on May 15, 2013, 12:02:32 pm
Michigan, Glengariff/Detroit News

Quote
Detroit — A majority of Michiganians supports gay marriage and broadening rights for homosexuals, a dramatic reversal from just a few years ago, according to a statewide poll released Tuesday to The Detroit News and WDIV-TV Channel 4.

Support for same-sex marriage has increased to 56.8 percent, up 12.5 percentage points from last year — movement fueled largely by shifting opinions from Republicans and independents, the poll of 600 registered voters by the Glengariff Group Inc. showed.

The support is in contrast to 2004, when Michigan voters approved a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.

That year, Glengariff found 24 percent of state voters supported gay and lesbian marriages. Now, 54 percent would repeal the ban and replace it with an amendment to allow same-sex marriages, the poll found.

From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130514/POLITICS02/305140459#ixzz2TNiEf7i4


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on May 15, 2013, 12:28:52 pm
Blank map.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=0;11;1&AR=0;6;7&CA=0;55;6&CO=0;9;4&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=0;6;2&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=0;10;7&MA=0;11;6&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=0;4;2&NJ=0;14;6&NM=0;5;7&NY=0;29;6&NC=0;15;2&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=0;13;2&WA=0;12;4&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;4&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Two states shown (MI, MN).

 

 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on May 15, 2013, 12:31:47 pm
Back to AZ and CO --

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=0;55;6&CO=3;9;3&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=0;6;2&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=0;10;7&MA=0;11;6&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=0;4;2&NJ=0;14;6&NM=0;5;7&NY=0;29;6&NC=0;15;2&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=0;13;2&WA=0;12;4&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;4&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Two states shown (MI, MN).

 

 
[/quote]


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on May 15, 2013, 12:36:18 pm
Arizona, Colorado and Michigan should put forward an initiative for 2016.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on May 15, 2013, 12:46:52 pm
Recognizing states in which same-sex marriage is legal--

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=0;55;6&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=4;6;1&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=4;4;1&NJ=0;14;6&NM=0;5;7&NY=4;29;1&NC=0;15;2&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=0;13;2&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;2;1&ME1=4;1;1&ME2=4;1;1&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


 



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on May 15, 2013, 12:57:39 pm

NJ, CA, KS, IL

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=3;55;7&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=0;11;7&IA=4;6;1&KS=3;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=4;29;1&NC=0;15;2&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=0;13;2&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;2;1&ME1=4;1;1&ME2=4;1;1&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


 



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on May 15, 2013, 01:29:19 pm
from February:

North Carolina (PPP)

Q18 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in North Carolina, or not?
It should be allowed ........................................ 38%
It should not .................................................... 54%
Not sure  9%

Alaska (PPP)

Q5 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Alaska, or not?
It should be allowed ........................................ 43%
It should not .................................................... 51%
Not sure  6%

and an obscure university poll from Virginia late in March (46-47 split)

I am not going back to January or earlier.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;7&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=3;55;7&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=0;11;7&IA=4;6;1&KS=3;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;9&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=1;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;2;1&ME1=4;1;1&ME2=4;1;1&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on May 15, 2013, 03:08:19 pm
Most recent South Carolina poll I could find:

December 2012 (PPP)

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed or not?
It should be allowed ........................................ 27%
It should not .................................................... 62%
Not sure  10%


That 35 point margin opposed was 13 point drop from a September 2011 poll PPP did (which was 21-69 for a 48 point margin).

Support for civil unions improved from 48-51 (-3) in 2011 to 54-43 (+11)

Almost all improvement in marriage support came from Democrats, with increases among independents and Republicans being within the MoE.

Most improvement in civil union support came from Democrats, with a lesser increase among independents, while that among Republicans improved by less than the MoE in this case also.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=3;55;7&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=0;11;7&IA=4;6;1&KS=3;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;7&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=1;13;3&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;2;1&ME1=4;1;1&ME2=4;1;1&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

I added another red to deal with deeply opposed states like mine and even tho PBR didn't want to go back too far, I see no reason to think a South Carolina poll today would yield a different color than the December poll, tho it is conceivable that support is above 30% today.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on May 15, 2013, 04:29:10 pm
Arizona, Colorado and Michigan should put forward an initiative for 2016.

Only Colorado could conceivably pass it, though. Let's be honest.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on May 15, 2013, 05:07:15 pm
Taking a look at that Kansas-poll, I'd have to say that was a civil union poll not a marriage poll, so I removed it. Added the December polls from PPP for OR (54-40) and GA (27-65), but decided not to add pre-election polls.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=3;55;7&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=1;16;9&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=0;11;7&IA=4;6;1&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;7&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=0;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=1;13;3&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Jordan on May 15, 2013, 05:14:14 pm
The only states that I would be comfortable putting this on the ballot (that don't already have same sex marriage) are California, Oregon, and Colorado (I would be comfortable with Hawaii, but only the legislature can enact it).


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on May 15, 2013, 05:18:11 pm
What would have to happen in Michigan for the amendment to be repealed?  Would the legislature have to act, or can the people petition for it?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Benj on May 15, 2013, 05:49:06 pm
What would have to happen in Michigan for the amendment to be repealed?  Would the legislature have to act, or can the people petition for it?

Michigan can have constitutional amendments by petition and could repeal their constitutional amendment without a vote of the legislature. However, they can't actually legalize same-sex marriage by referendum; the (heavily gerrymandered and Republican) legislature would need to vote to allow same-sex marriage. (I suppose they could put same-sex marriage in the state constitution, but that seems far-fetched.)

The only states that I would be comfortable putting this on the ballot (that don't already have same sex marriage) are California, Oregon, and Colorado (I would be comfortable with Hawaii, but only the legislature can enact it).

I'd be comfortable here in New Jersey, as well, and also in Nevada and New Mexico (none of which allow referendums, however).*

*Nevada apparently can vote on constitutional amendments without a legislative vote. However, for whatever reason they are attempting to repeal their constitutional amendment at the moment by going through legislative channels (which requires a vote this session (in 2013), a vote next session (in 2015) and then a referendum (in 2016). I'm not sure why they're not just directly initiating a referendum.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on May 15, 2013, 06:20:03 pm
Arizona, Colorado and Michigan should put forward an initiative for 2016.

Only Colorado could conceivably pass it, though. Let's be honest.

Polls look good now at least in Michigan and there is a reason I said 2016 instead 2014. Three years ago did you think that Minnesota would have it? 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nhoj on May 15, 2013, 08:07:06 pm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/virginians-changing-views-of-gay-marriage/2013/05/14/883b5f14-bd0e-11e2-9b09-1638acc3942e_graphic.html

56% now support gay marriage in Va according to WaPo. Including 40% of republicans.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on May 15, 2013, 09:55:21 pm
What would have to happen in Michigan for the amendment to be repealed?  Would the legislature have to act, or can the people petition for it?

The current state legislature owes too much to the Religious Right to act upon a pro-gay sentiment of any kind. If Michigan voters turn on the Republican-dominated state legislature and vote out a now-unpopular Governor  in 2014, a Democratic Governor and State legislature could either enact same-sex marriage or offer it in a referendum on the pretext of economic necessity. It would be good for Michigan business, including tourism.

But so long as the GOP-dominated legislature can get away with legislating as if Michigan were Oklahoma, same-sex marriage and any assertion of rights of homosexuals is out of the question. Count on Republicans stirring up anti-gay sentiment in 2014.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: publicunofficial on May 16, 2013, 01:19:49 am
What poll says Kansas has more gay marriage support than Colorado and Illinois?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on May 16, 2013, 01:22:21 am
What poll says Kansas has more gay marriage support than Colorado and Illinois?

The poll on the previous page.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on May 16, 2013, 03:13:14 am
What poll says Kansas has more gay marriage support than Colorado and Illinois?

The poll on the previous page.

It's not a poll on gay marriage, though.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on May 16, 2013, 06:06:30 am
http://www.washingtonpost.com/virginians-changing-views-of-gay-marriage/2013/05/14/883b5f14-bd0e-11e2-9b09-1638acc3942e_graphic.html

Capital Insights/Washington Post -- Virginia.

"Should it be legal or  illegal for gay couples to get married?"

56% legal, 33% illegal

A similar response in 2011 was 46% in favor, 43% opposed.

I was not going back to January or earlier, but there are few polls to that effect from January. This thread does not go back that far. The Kansas poll is technically of civil unions, but the language all but recognizes the right of same-sex marriage. Still, it does not say marriage. To be sure the WaPo poll in Virginia says nothing about lesbians getting married, but close enough.

Republican state legislators are out of touch with voters in Virginia as in Michigan. I see a rapid shift in attitudes in Virginia. At the very time in which Americans are getting more intolerant of spousal abuse and especially child sexual abuse (I strongly endorse this trend) they increasingly accept of homosexuality. 

If I am a Republican activist, I recognize the futility of exploiting anti-homophobic sentiment in political campaigns except in the Deep and Mountain South, and I wouldn't trust even the LDS hierarchy in Arizona, Idaho, Utah, or Wyoming. The LDS hierarchy can always have some 'revelation' that homosexuality is less a personal choice than is drinking coffee or using cancerweed products. 

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=3;55;7&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=1;16;9&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=0;11;7&IA=4;6;1&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;7&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=0;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
[/quote]


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Fritz on May 16, 2013, 03:19:12 pm
Does anyone have a map that shows:

1. states where SSM is legal
2. states where SSM is constitutionally banned
3. neither

??


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: danny on May 16, 2013, 03:39:45 pm
Does anyone have a map that shows:

1. states where SSM is legal
2. states where SSM is constitutionally banned
3. neither

??

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Samesex_marriage_in_USA.svg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Samesex_marriage_in_USA.svg)
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7e/Samesex_marriage_in_USA.svg/800px-Samesex_marriage_in_USA.svg.png)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Benj on May 16, 2013, 04:10:35 pm
For those looking to decipher the map:

Dark blue: Same-sex marriage legal
Medium blue: Civil unions with rights equivalent to marriage available
Light blue: Unions with limited rights available
Gray: No laws on same-sex marriage or civil unions
Light red: Statute bans same-sex marriage
Medium red: Constitution bans same-sex marriage
Dark red: Constitution bans same-sex marriage and civil unions with equivalent rights

The (2) is for the complicated status of same-sex marriage in California. The (1) is apparently for same-sex marriage not yet being available in Minnesota, though the recently passed same-sex marriage statutes in Delaware and Rhode Island also have also not yet come into effect.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on May 22, 2013, 11:27:05 am
New TN poll:

(http://cmsimg.tennessean.com/apps/pbcsi.dll/bilde?Site=DN&Date=20130521&Category=NEWS&ArtNo=305220071&Ref=V1&MaxW=300&Border=0&Vanderbilt-poll-finds-growing-support-same-sex-marriage)

The poll results suggest a marked shift in Tennesseans’ views since 2006, when 81 percent of voters approved an amendment to the state constitution defining marriage between one man and one woman as “the only legally recognized marital contract” in the state.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20130521/NEWS/305220071/Poll-finds-growing-support-for-same-sex-marriage


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on May 22, 2013, 11:30:11 am
Previous PPP polls in the states have shown though that only a small part of the "civil union" people also support SSM.

So, in this case it would be ca. 35-60 opposed, with 5% undecided.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on May 23, 2013, 01:25:35 am
New Mexico does NOT support gay marriage yet:

Should marriages between same-sex couples be legally allowed in New Mexico? Or legally banned in New Mexico?

44% Allowed
51% Banned

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b470cfab-ff05-45b8-bb3f-01c54338a6ad


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on May 23, 2013, 08:24:33 am
Updating the thread map for the new polls from Tennessee and New Mexico:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=3;55;7&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=1;16;9&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=0;11;7&IA=4;6;1&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;7&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=0;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on May 23, 2013, 02:44:09 pm
New Mexico does NOT support gay marriage yet:

Should marriages between same-sex couples be legally allowed in New Mexico? Or legally banned in New Mexico?

44% Allowed
51% Banned

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b470cfab-ff05-45b8-bb3f-01c54338a6ad

Seven points is a surprising margin for that state.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on May 23, 2013, 06:57:18 pm
Is SUSA robocalling cell phones or only landlines? I remember then skewing old.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Benj on May 23, 2013, 07:20:02 pm
Is SUSA robocalling cell phones or only landlines? I remember then skewing old.

Doesn't look to skew that old, but only 63% among under-35s is a little suspicious. Interesting confirmation for Native American support for SSM, though; New Mexico might be the only state with a big enough Native population to get a not-totally-ridiculous sample size.

Poll seems off, I agree, but who knows. SUSA does have a reputation for being random.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Seattle on May 24, 2013, 11:01:26 pm
Is SUSA robocalling cell phones or only landlines? I remember then skewing old.

Doesn't look to skew that old, but only 63% among under-35s is a little suspicious. Interesting confirmation for Native American support for SSM, though; New Mexico might be the only state with a big enough Native population to get a not-totally-ridiculous sample size.

Poll seems off, I agree, but who knows. SUSA does have a reputation for being random.
What about Arizona or Oklahoma?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Smash255 on May 25, 2013, 01:03:03 am
New Mexico does NOT support gay marriage yet:

Should marriages between same-sex couples be legally allowed in New Mexico? Or legally banned in New Mexico?

44% Allowed
51% Banned

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b470cfab-ff05-45b8-bb3f-01c54338a6ad

Seven points is a surprising margin for that state.

Remember how during the run up to the election many Republicans were complaining that the Party Id's in polls were to Democratic and that wound up being false?

This might be one that id\s a party id issue.  Party id in the poll is Dem +3, it was Dem +12 in the exit polls from November


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 25, 2013, 01:25:09 am
New Mexico does NOT support gay marriage yet:

Should marriages between same-sex couples be legally allowed in New Mexico? Or legally banned in New Mexico?

44% Allowed
51% Banned

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b470cfab-ff05-45b8-bb3f-01c54338a6ad

Seven points is a surprising margin for that state.

Remember how during the run up to the election many Republicans were complaining that the Party Id's in polls were to Democratic and that wound up being false?

This might be one that id\s a party id issue.  Party id in the poll is Dem +3, it was Dem +12 in the exit polls from November

Well, the 5% who want it neither allowed or banned are the ones who have their way there.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Jordan on May 25, 2013, 01:29:27 am
New Mexico does NOT support gay marriage yet:

Should marriages between same-sex couples be legally allowed in New Mexico? Or legally banned in New Mexico?

44% Allowed
51% Banned

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b470cfab-ff05-45b8-bb3f-01c54338a6ad

Seven points is a surprising margin for that state.

Remember how during the run up to the election many Republicans were complaining that the Party Id's in polls were to Democratic and that wound up being false?

This might be one that id\s a party id issue.  Party id in the poll is Dem +3, it was Dem +12 in the exit polls from November

Well, the 5% who want it neither allowed or banned are the ones who have their way there.

This is what always got me about New Mexico same sex marriage laws.  If it isn't defined in the law as being banned, shouldn't it be De-facto legal?

I mean, it works that way for about every other law.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on May 25, 2013, 07:27:15 am
I think I've heard that it's because of something stupid like the marriage certificates list "husband" and "wife", which seems strange to me because that makes it seem like the department that is in charge of producing or editing marriage certificates hold the power of making same-sex marriage legal in New Mexico or not.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: shua on May 25, 2013, 01:17:08 pm
Santa Fe's city attorney has been arguing that same-ex marriages are already legal in New Mexico, and NM AG has been studying the issue.  Currently same-sex marriages from other states are recognized.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on May 25, 2013, 02:26:35 pm
New Mexico does NOT support gay marriage yet:

Should marriages between same-sex couples be legally allowed in New Mexico? Or legally banned in New Mexico?

44% Allowed
51% Banned

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b470cfab-ff05-45b8-bb3f-01c54338a6ad

Seven points is a surprising margin for that state.

Remember how during the run up to the election many Republicans were complaining that the Party Id's in polls were to Democratic and that wound up being false?

This might be one that id\s a party id issue.  Party id in the poll is Dem +3, it was Dem +12 in the exit polls from November

Well, the 5% who want it neither allowed or banned are the ones who have their way there.

This is what always got me about New Mexico same sex marriage laws.  If it isn't defined in the law as being banned, shouldn't it be De-facto legal?

I mean, it works that way for about every other law.

I don't think it works that way for marriage.  A couple seeking a marriage license could only be recognized if the state's marriage laws specifically permit them to.  If the NM marriage laws as written specifically mention heterosexual couples but not homosexual ones, then gay couples don't get the benefits.  A judge, however, could easily extend those rights to homosexuals, I believe, if said marriage laws were sued for violating the equal protection clause.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: King on May 25, 2013, 02:50:08 pm
New Mexico is probably the only state in the country where people don't vote against the economic interests for social issues.   

Santa Fe and Albuquerque probably have strong SSM support, but Obama didn't win the state on those two counties alone.  There are a lot of highly religious rural counties in this state that vote Democrat every 4 years because that they are poor and need government assistance.

Trust me, if you've ever been to Mora County, you'll know queers and Republicans are equally not welcome.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 25, 2013, 03:20:56 pm
NM like RI and NY used to has no law against gay marriage. I think NJ might be in that category, too. But generally people have argued that you need to explicitly legalize gay marriage to grant licenses. However they can quietly recognize out of state gay marriages, so they have a slight advantage over the 6 states that have just a statute ban (HI, WY, IL, IN, PA, WV).


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on May 25, 2013, 03:25:14 pm
Speaking of Hawaii, what are the odds that gay marriage will be passed in that state by 2016?  The Democrats have over a 2-1 majority in the statehouse and all but one seat in the Senate.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on May 25, 2013, 04:48:50 pm
Speaking of Hawaii, what are the odds that gay marriage will be passed in that state by 2016?  The Democrats have over a 2-1 majority in the statehouse and all but one seat in the Senate.
5%.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Blue3 on May 26, 2013, 12:38:54 pm
Hawaii will probably be the Pacific Rhode Island. An extremely Democratic legislature that doesn't do anything.



Oh, and can you guys believe an entire week went by without a US Senator announcing support for gay marriage, or a US state legalizing gay marriage, or another country legalizing gay marriage?? :p Seriously, it feels like the first week of no news on the gay marriage issue since Rob Portman came out. Though the Supreme Court decisions on DOMA and Prop8 are getting pretty close...


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: shua on May 26, 2013, 03:27:35 pm
Speaking of Hawaii, what are the odds that gay marriage will be passed in that state by 2016?  The Democrats have over a 2-1 majority in the statehouse and all but one seat in the Senate.
5%.

why so low?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on May 26, 2013, 05:45:54 pm
Speaking of Hawaii, what are the odds that gay marriage will be passed in that state by 2016?  The Democrats have over a 2-1 majority in the statehouse and all but one seat in the Senate.
5%.

why so low?

Hawaii only started to recognize civil unions as of the beginning of 2012.  I know that this issue seems to moving fast, but for it to go from civil unions to marriage in only four years would be rather fast.  At least Hawaii alone of those states that passed a constitutional amendment did not have the amendment directly ban same-sex marriage but only gave the Assembly authority to ban same-sex marriage if it chose to do so.

Bills to recognize same-sex marriage were introduced in the Hawaii House and Senate this year, but the only action taken this year was to refer them to committees where nothing was done about them.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 26, 2013, 08:21:46 pm
Speaking of Hawaii, what are the odds that gay marriage will be passed in that state by 2016?  The Democrats have over a 2-1 majority in the statehouse and all but one seat in the Senate.
5%.

Are there ever primary challenges from the left in Hawaii? Because they sure need some.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2013, 11:48:38 am
Support for homo-marriages reaches a new high in CA:

(http://www.ppic.org/content/images/doc-charts/same-sex-marriage_05-13.png)

A majority of voters favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry. This represents a recent shift in attitudes toward same-sex marriage. When the PPIC Statewide Survey first asked the question in 2000, 39% of voters were in favor and 55% were opposed. The margin narrowed over the next decade until 2010, when 51% favored legalizing same-sex marriage for the first time. Today, a record 58% of registered voters are in favor, while 36% are opposed.

For many years there was a strong partisan divide on same-sex marriage, with majorities of Democrats and independents in favor and Republicans opposed. But Republicans are now closely divided (46% in favor, 49% opposed). Remarkably, Republican support has doubled since October 2008—just before the passage of Proposition 8—and has jumped 16 points since January 2013.

http://www.ppic.org/main/publication.asp?i=1059


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: PR on May 30, 2013, 12:32:33 pm
^^^Excellent news.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on May 30, 2013, 02:52:16 pm
If the Supreme Court does the unexpected and upholds Proposition 8, when is the earliest a repeal initiative be voted on in California?

Updating the thread map for the new poll from California:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=3;55;5&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=1;16;9&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=0;11;7&IA=4;6;1&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;7&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=0;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

(Note: a slight revision to the color key from last time, but it did not affect any states.)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: TDAS04 on May 30, 2013, 03:05:24 pm
So, should an amendment legalizing SSM be placed on the California ballot in 2014?  Or should the gays in California just hope that SCOTUS legalizes it in their state?

Since California is such a large state, it would be far more costly than in a state such as Oregon or Maine.  Still, it must be tempting with those poll numbers, and a SCOTUS ruling against prop 8 is far from certain.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Thomas D on May 30, 2013, 04:39:07 pm
Illinois making us wait untill the last minute.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on June 20, 2013, 02:17:47 am
Quiet for three weeks here?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on June 20, 2013, 04:50:23 pm
Quiet for three weeks here?

We'll probably get a flurry of polls once SCOTUS announces its decision in the DOMA case.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on June 28, 2013, 02:27:34 am
Montana (PPP):

Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed, or not?

It should be allowed ........................................ 42%
It should not .................................................... 48%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry .....................................................39%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry ..........................32%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship .......................27%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_628.pdf

...

As usual, only a small fraction of the "civil union people" would also support gay marriage ...


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on June 28, 2013, 02:37:16 am
Time to fill in the map:

Ohio (Quinnipiac)

48-44 support

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1884


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on June 28, 2013, 09:24:15 am
Updating the thread map for the new polls from Montana and Ohio and the decision in the Prop 8 case:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=1;16;9&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=0;11;7&IA=4;6;1&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=1;3;5&NV=0;6;4&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;7&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=0;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on June 28, 2013, 09:34:33 am
Arkansas Citizens File To Put Marriage Equality On The 2014 Ballot. (http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/arkansas-citizens-file-to-put-marriage-equality-on-the-2014-ballot/marriage/2013/06/28/70028)  It won't pass, of course, but it's a good gesture.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on June 29, 2013, 10:56:58 am
Updating the thread map for the new polls from Montana and Ohio and the decision in the Prop 8 case:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=1;16;9&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=0;11;7&IA=4;6;1&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=1;3;5&NV=0;6;4&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;7&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=0;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Ernest, which polls would you like to add on your map ?

Only polls done in 2013 ?

I have found some polls from other states as well that you can include.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on June 29, 2013, 11:04:34 am
KY-PPP: 27-65 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/kentucky-miscellany.html

LA-PPP: 29-59 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/louisiana-miscellany.html

TX-PPP: 35-55 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/clinton-could-win-texas.html

WI-PPP: 44-46 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/wisconsin-miscellany.html

KS-PPP: 39-51 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/kansas-miscellany.html

PA-Quinnipiac: 47-43 legal

http://www.politicspa.com/quinnipiac-poll-pa-voters-support-same-sex-marriage-by-a-small-margin/45702

NV (POS): 54-43 legal

http://www.rannv.org/documents/23/Release%20February%2013%20Survey.pdf

...

The last FL poll I can find is from December 2012 from Quinnipiac: 43-45 illegal

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/gaysouthflorida/2012/12/poll-florida-voters-split-on-gay-marriage-oppose-legalizing-pot.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on June 29, 2013, 11:24:52 am
Updating Ernest's map with the above polls:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;5&GA=1;16;9&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=0;11;7&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;7&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;7&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on June 29, 2013, 11:35:35 am
I think all the remaining states on the map would all still oppose gay marriage, many of them by huge margins.

Except Hawaii.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nhoj on June 29, 2013, 11:55:13 am
I think all the remaining states on the map would all still oppose gay marriage, many of them by huge margins.

Except Hawaii.
Indiana probably has atleast 40% support and perhaps as much as 45%


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on June 29, 2013, 11:57:16 am
Updating Ernest's map with the above polls:

It was originally pbrower's map, but I modified slightly to allow better coverage of the ranges, and I'm going to do it again to add another band of values for the noes.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;5&GA=1;16;9&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=0;11;7&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on June 29, 2013, 12:16:24 pm
I think all the remaining states on the map would all still oppose gay marriage, many of them by huge margins.

Except Hawaii.
Indiana probably has atleast 40% support and perhaps as much as 45%

Indeed.

After some googling, I found this poll from December:

45% support
45% oppose

http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/news/indiana/poll-oppostition-to-same-sex-marriage-permanent-ban

...

Which would make IN the first yellow state on the map.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on June 29, 2013, 12:23:17 pm
Hawaii was actually 42-50 illegal in a January poll:

http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2013/01/16/18077-civil-beat-poll-young-people-tipping-the-scales-toward-gay-marriage


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on June 29, 2013, 12:32:59 pm
Updated for Hawaii and Indiana

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;5&GA=1;16;9&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;5&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on June 29, 2013, 12:35:03 pm
There are some polls from 2011 to Mid-2012 from states like WV, MO, UT and so on.

Should we include those on the map or not ?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on June 29, 2013, 12:41:56 pm
I'd prefer to not go more than a year back considering how the situation is fluid:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_060112.pdf (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_060112.pdf) MO 36-52 June 2012

http://www.omaha.com/article/20121004/NEWS/710049903 (http://www.omaha.com/article/20121004/NEWS/710049903)  NE 32-61 Oct 2012

Updated for Nebraska and Missouri above and Arkansas in the post below.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=1;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;5&GA=1;16;9&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;5&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=1;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=1;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on June 29, 2013, 12:55:58 pm
AR was 18-75 in Oct. 2012

http://plsc.uark.edu/partners/arkpoll/12/2012_Arkansas_Poll_Summary_Report.pdf


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on July 02, 2013, 03:40:35 pm
Quote from: True Federalist link=topic=139461.msg3779009#msg3779009


It was originally pbrower's map, but I modified slightly to allow better coverage of the ranges, and I'm going to do it again to add another band of values for the noes.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;7&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;5&GA=1;16;9&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=0;11;7&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

I endorse the change in the color choices.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on July 02, 2013, 03:48:48 pm
I'd prefer to not go more than a year back considering how the situation is fluid:

The 2012 election is as far back as we need go.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_060112.pdf (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_060112.pdf) MO 36-52 June 2012

http://www.omaha.com/article/20121004/NEWS/710049903 (http://www.omaha.com/article/20121004/NEWS/710049903)  NE 32-61 Oct 2012

Updated for Nebraska and Missouri above and Arkansas in the post below.

I'm not saying that the polls for Missouri or Nebraska are inaccurate, but the 2012 election is as far back as we dare go. Same-sex marriage was basically shelved during the 2012 election. Afterwards -- Indiana polls are rare enough that I would go back to December of last year.   

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;5&GA=1;16;9&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;5&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on July 03, 2013, 11:57:10 am
Texas, PPP:

Quote
-It's going to be a while before Texas voters get on board with gay marriage- we find that only 34% of voters in the state support it to 57% who are opposed. As we find in most of the South though the hang up for Texans is more the term 'marriage' than opposing equal legal rights for same sex couples- we find that 63% of voters support at least civil unions to only 31% who are opposed to any sort of legal equality. 72% of Democrats, 70% of independents, and even a 51% majority of Republicans support either gay marriage or civil unions in Texas.

When it comes to employment discrimination based on sexual orientation, only 14% of Texans think that should be an allowable practice compared to 75% who believe it should not. Even among Republicans just 21% believe that's acceptable to 62% who think it is unacceptable.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/07/texas-miscellany.html

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;5&GA=1;16;9&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;5&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on July 03, 2013, 12:20:10 pm
It looks like the South is not "evolving" yet.

Except FL and VA ...


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on July 03, 2013, 12:21:32 pm
AR was 18-75 in Oct. 2012

http://plsc.uark.edu/partners/arkpoll/12/2012_Arkansas_Poll_Summary_Report.pdf

Arkansas Citizens File To Put Marriage Equality On The 2014 Ballot. (http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/arkansas-citizens-file-to-put-marriage-equality-on-the-2014-ballot/marriage/2013/06/28/70028)  It won't pass, of course, but it's a good gesture.

...how can they look at those numbers and think that a 2014 initiative is a good idea?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on July 03, 2013, 01:22:48 pm
AR was 18-75 in Oct. 2012

http://plsc.uark.edu/partners/arkpoll/12/2012_Arkansas_Poll_Summary_Report.pdf

Arkansas Citizens File To Put Marriage Equality On The 2014 Ballot. (http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/arkansas-citizens-file-to-put-marriage-equality-on-the-2014-ballot/marriage/2013/06/28/70028)  It won't pass, of course, but it's a good gesture.

...how can they look at those numbers and think that a 2014 initiative is a good idea?

They may think that it would be likelier to help bring progressive voters to the ballot box than conservative voters, which even if it goes to defeat would still be a positive for them in other races.  Personally, I think that won't be the case, but it would be a logical reason to attempt a referendum you knew was going to lose.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on July 03, 2013, 01:24:16 pm
It looks like the South is not "evolving" yet.

Except FL and VA ...

It's not the South that is resisting evolving, it's the Bible Belt that's resisting, and most of the population of Virginia and Florida are outside the Belt.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on July 03, 2013, 04:22:37 pm
AR was 18-75 in Oct. 2012

http://plsc.uark.edu/partners/arkpoll/12/2012_Arkansas_Poll_Summary_Report.pdf

Arkansas Citizens File To Put Marriage Equality On The 2014 Ballot. (http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/arkansas-citizens-file-to-put-marriage-equality-on-the-2014-ballot/marriage/2013/06/28/70028)  It won't pass, of course, but it's a good gesture.

...how can they look at those numbers and think that a 2014 initiative is a good idea?

When you live in a state like Arkansas, the only option you have is to try and try again. There will be no help from the legislature, governor or top court, so you have to be the one to help yourself.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 04, 2013, 03:48:23 am
AR was 18-75 in Oct. 2012

http://plsc.uark.edu/partners/arkpoll/12/2012_Arkansas_Poll_Summary_Report.pdf

Arkansas Citizens File To Put Marriage Equality On The 2014 Ballot. (http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/arkansas-citizens-file-to-put-marriage-equality-on-the-2014-ballot/marriage/2013/06/28/70028)  It won't pass, of course, but it's a good gesture.

...how can they look at those numbers and think that a 2014 initiative is a good idea?

When you live in a state like Arkansas, the only option you have is to try and try again. There will be no help from the legislature, governor or top court, so you have to be the one to help yourself.

Having the debate will help move the numbers toward the right side. It certainly can't make things worse there, can it?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on July 10, 2013, 10:45:17 am
IA (PPP):

47-44 legal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Iowa_710.pdf


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Badger on July 10, 2013, 11:15:04 pm
Hawaii was actually 42-50 illegal in a January poll:

http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2013/01/16/18077-civil-beat-poll-young-people-tipping-the-scales-toward-gay-marriage

See sole comment in linked article about piss-poor wording of polled question. Unreliable poll IMO.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Badger on July 10, 2013, 11:35:44 pm
KY-PPP: 27-65 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/kentucky-miscellany.html

LA-PPP: 29-59 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/louisiana-miscellany.html

TX-PPP: 35-55 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/clinton-could-win-texas.html

WI-PPP: 44-46 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/wisconsin-miscellany.html

KS-PPP: 39-51 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/kansas-miscellany.html

PA-Quinnipiac: 47-43 legal

http://www.politicspa.com/quinnipiac-poll-pa-voters-support-same-sex-marriage-by-a-small-margin/45702

NV (POS): 54-43 legal

http://www.rannv.org/documents/23/Release%20February%2013%20Survey.pdf

...

The last FL poll I can find is from December 2012 from Quinnipiac: 43-45 illegal

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/gaysouthflorida/2012/12/poll-florida-voters-split-on-gay-marriage-oppose-legalizing-pot.html

When oh when will people realize that in most states civil unions are the way to go? They'll pass in all but a handful of states, but would pass in scads of states where gay marriage can't for many years. Furthermore, it'll speed up gay marriage in those states by overcoming the conservatives fear of the unknown.

The issue isn't whether a second rate form of marriage should be accepted. Its whether to accept civil unions and gay marriage in 5-10 years, or no marital rights whatsoever and gay marriage in 20-30 years (maybe).


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: publicunofficial on July 10, 2013, 11:50:03 pm
KY-PPP: 27-65 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/kentucky-miscellany.html

LA-PPP: 29-59 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/louisiana-miscellany.html

TX-PPP: 35-55 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/clinton-could-win-texas.html

WI-PPP: 44-46 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/wisconsin-miscellany.html

KS-PPP: 39-51 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/kansas-miscellany.html

PA-Quinnipiac: 47-43 legal

http://www.politicspa.com/quinnipiac-poll-pa-voters-support-same-sex-marriage-by-a-small-margin/45702

NV (POS): 54-43 legal

http://www.rannv.org/documents/23/Release%20February%2013%20Survey.pdf

...

The last FL poll I can find is from December 2012 from Quinnipiac: 43-45 illegal

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/gaysouthflorida/2012/12/poll-florida-voters-split-on-gay-marriage-oppose-legalizing-pot.html

When oh when will people realize that in most states civil unions are the way to go? They'll pass in all but a handful of states, but would pass in scads of states where gay marriage can't for many years. Furthermore, it'll speed up gay marriage in those states by overcoming the conservatives fear of the unknown.

The issue isn't whether a second rate form of marriage should be accepted. Its whether to accept civil unions and gay marriage in 5-10 years, or no marital rights whatsoever and gay marriage in 20-30 years (maybe).

Except Republican legislatures won't pass civil unions/domestic partnerships, and past elections have shown that people who support civil unions in polls will vote against them when given the option.

"I'm fine with gays getting some recognition, but if it's my decision I'll vote NO."


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on July 11, 2013, 06:31:12 pm
There's also the fact that by the time civil union legislation could likely get through most state legislatures, cases based on Windsor will have already have at minimum given gays the right to form civil unions that are marriages in all but name and more than likely will have given them the name as well.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on July 11, 2013, 11:49:46 pm
Quote
About 55 percent of Virginia voters now believe that marriage between people of the same sex should be allowed, while 41 percent oppose it, according to a poll released today by the Human Rights Campaign — the nation’s largest LGBT equality-rights advocacy group.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/new-poll-finds-majority-of-virginians-support-same-sex-marriage/article_0d85e198-244f-5b21-9536-5a2a38624d43.html

It's probably correct, but I would reject this poll because it is released by an advocacy group that has LGBT rights as a core of its agenda.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;5&GA=1;16;9&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;5&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: barfbag on July 12, 2013, 12:25:55 am
I'd like to see more states legalize it, but it's just not a federal issue.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 19, 2013, 06:03:41 pm
Careful, Virginia -- if you keep this up, they won't let you into the "New Confederacy."

http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/of-virginians-surveyed-back-same-sex-marriage/article_e727d6da-ef98-11e2-9db5-0019bb30f31a.html

50% Support SSM
43% Opposed to SSM

via Quinnipiac


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: PR on July 19, 2013, 06:05:21 pm
I'd like to see more states legalize it, but it's just not a federal issue.

Then why the need for DOMA?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on July 19, 2013, 06:16:54 pm
Has Virginia become the new New Hampshire!?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: RedSLC on July 19, 2013, 06:26:57 pm
Has Virginia become the new New Hampshire!?

Northern Virginia's influence over the state continues to grow as more people move to the region.

I'm kind of surprised that Kentucky is the most strongly opposed out of the states polled so far, even more so than Louisiana.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: barfbag on July 19, 2013, 07:08:01 pm
Has Virginia become the new New Hampshire!?

Northern Virginia's influence over the state continues to grow as more people move to the region.

I'm kind of surprised that Kentucky is the most strongly opposed out of the states polled so far, even more so than Louisiana.

Western Kentucky is more than anything the Midwest which has very conservative stances on social issues. The state as a whole could pass for the Safely Republican column by now too. It's right up there with Texas, Alabama, Kansas, North Dakota, Alaska, and Nebraska. Other southern states like Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, and West Virginia should be in the solid GOP column.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: barfbag on July 19, 2013, 07:14:03 pm
I'd like to see more states legalize it, but it's just not a federal issue.

Then why the need for DOMA?

States should decide on the matter and I support it if it's what gays want. I'm not convinced every single gay person wants a marriage as if they were a straight couple, but it would be fair to allow gays to marry. I don't see the need for DOMA.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: barfbag on July 19, 2013, 07:14:50 pm
Has Virginia become the new New Hampshire!?

Haha what do you mean?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: TDAS04 on July 19, 2013, 07:17:32 pm
New Mexico less supportive than Arizona?  I suppose New Mexico is more populist.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: barfbag on July 19, 2013, 07:18:53 pm
Careful, Virginia -- if you keep this up, they won't let you into the "New Confederacy."

http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/of-virginians-surveyed-back-same-sex-marriage/article_e727d6da-ef98-11e2-9db5-0019bb30f31a.html

50% Support SSM
43% Opposed to SSM

via Quinnipiac

I used to be against gay marriage but ok with other states legalizing it. Now 10 years later, I support gay marriage, but still believe it should be up to the states. It's never been a top issue for me. What did you mean by New Confederacy? lol


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on July 19, 2013, 09:27:31 pm
Has Virginia become the new New Hampshire!?

It could be. Virginia has been out of step with the rest of the South for a very long time. It went for Herbert Hoover in 1928. It went for Eisenhower twice. It was the only former Confederate state to vote for Ford in 1976 and never went for Clinton.

It went for Dubya by 8% in 2000 and 2004 -- showing some slight D drift.

Virginia has been attracting hordes of Yankees who bring their political attitudes with them. A couple years ago PPP asked people what their favorite team was  (at least before the Nationals moved in from Montreal).... and many of the responses were "Yankees", "Mets", "Phillies", "Red Sox", and "Cubs". (There seem to be lots of Tiger fans, too). The sports fans show where they are from.

Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Phillies, Cubs, and probably any Tiger, Giant, and Dodger fans reflect the places that they are from, and those people on the whole are liberals. (Oriole fans are somewhat local, and southwest Georgia is split between Reds and Braves fans. Cincinnati and Atlanta are relatively liberal, but their extended areas of fan support are decidedly conservative. 

Virginia has shown the pattern of Northern states.       


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: MaxQue on July 20, 2013, 05:47:50 am
Has Virginia become the new New Hampshire!?

No, but it may become the new Maryland. More and more, Virginia is DC suburbs, while people in the Appalacheans are dying because they are old. And there is an area where is lots of Blacks (Richmond area).


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 20, 2013, 08:46:13 am
Iowa already has SSM, but they support it there 47% to 44%.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/07/iowans-divided-but-power-unlikely-to-change-hands.html#more


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on July 24, 2013, 12:45:34 pm
WY-PPP:

Quote
Only 32% think same sex marriage should be allowed, while 57% continue to think it should be illegal.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WY_724.pdf


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Lief 🐋 on July 24, 2013, 01:19:15 pm
But Wyoming is like super libertarian guys!


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on July 24, 2013, 01:26:25 pm
I guess Wyoming has less gay cowboys than we thought it did.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: shua on July 24, 2013, 01:53:20 pm
so much for gay-friendly per capita.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: the 2018- The People v. The Pepe on July 24, 2013, 02:21:04 pm
Really want to see what a poll would show on abortion. I think that Wyoming's is being pulled to conform with the rest of the Republican base.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: barfbag on July 24, 2013, 02:41:14 pm
Really want to see what a poll would show on abortion. I think that Wyoming's is being pulled to conform with the rest of the Republican base.

It really depends on how the question is asked. The majority of the public will always say yes to being pro-choice or pro-life because it feels nice to be on the side of the unborn and to be on the side of young girls who don't know what to do. However, if you asked someone if they are pro-abortion or support abortion, then the majority will say no. People will say yes though if you simply ask "do you support a woman's right to choose?" At the end of the day, the majority will say they're pro-life, but think the government shouldn't get in the way of abortions because others may have different views and we're always going to have abortions like we have drugs.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on July 24, 2013, 05:02:07 pm
Updated to include Wyoming poll.  Not going to change Ohio or Pennsylvania since their legal cases have neither completely gone thru the courts, nor in the case of Ohio allow couples to wed there, just for their marriages elsewhere be recognized.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;5&GA=1;16;9&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;5&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on August 05, 2013, 12:07:14 pm
New Florida poll: (http://stpete.patch.com/groups/politics-and-elections/p/poll-yes-on-weed-crist-over-scott-maybe-on-gay-marriage)
Quote
According to the poll, 46.3 percent of respondent said they would support gay marriage, compared to 46.9 percent who said no; 6.8 percent said they were unsure.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on August 06, 2013, 02:25:12 am
Updated to include Florida poll.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=1;16;9&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Jordan on August 06, 2013, 02:34:21 am
New Florida poll: (http://stpete.patch.com/groups/politics-and-elections/p/poll-yes-on-weed-crist-over-scott-maybe-on-gay-marriage)
Quote
According to the poll, 46.3 percent of respondent said they would support gay marriage, compared to 46.9 percent who said no; 6.8 percent said they were unsure.

Bad thing about Florida, is that it takes 60% of the voters to approve ballot initiatives.

and OF COURSE the gay marriage ban just BARELY passed with over 62% of the vote.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on August 06, 2013, 11:11:59 am
Updated to include Florida poll.

Less than 1% difference is effectively a tie, which applies to polls with fractional differences. 

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=4;29;4&GA=1;16;9&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;5&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on August 06, 2013, 02:46:18 pm
If they'd reported whole numbers it would have been 47-46 against once rounded.  Now if you want yellow to be -1 to +1, I can support that, but it is disingenuous to suggest the result is ±0 when it isn't.  Even if you round the decimal difference, -0.6 rounds to -1.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on August 09, 2013, 10:41:33 pm
-Georgia voters are still strongly opposed to gay marriage- only 32% support it with 60% against. But even there you can see the wheels turning- last year we found 27% of voters in the state supportive and 65% opposed. Voters under 30 support it by a 56/31 marriage. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/georgia-miscellany.html

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=4;29;4&GA=1;16;7&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;5&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: old timey villain on August 09, 2013, 11:05:21 pm
-Georgia voters are still strongly opposed to gay marriage- only 32% support it with 60% against. But even there you can see the wheels turning- last year we found 27% of voters in the state supportive and 65% opposed. Voters under 30 support it by a 56/31 marriage. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/georgia-miscellany.html

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=4;29;4&GA=1;16;7&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;5&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)



ugh, get it together Georgia


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on August 10, 2013, 10:20:04 am
Updated to include Georgia poll. (Note, my map differs from pbrower's because we disagree on whether the Florida poll should be counted as a tie.)

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=1;16;7&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Xiivi on August 10, 2013, 07:36:37 pm
^thanks; I agree Florida shouldn't be a tie based on those numbers.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on August 21, 2013, 04:43:07 pm
Quote
Q10 (PPP)

Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Louisiana, or not?

28% It should be allowed

63% It should not

10% Not sure


(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=1;16;7&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on August 23, 2013, 11:42:51 am
Other notes from Ohio:

-For the first time ever PPP finds a plurality of Ohio voters in support of gay marriage- 48% favor it to 42% who are opposed. There's been a massive shift in attitudes over the last two years- in October of 2011 we found only 32% of voters supporting it and 55% against. Younger voters in particular are sparking the movement toward acceptance of same sex marriage- those under 45 favor it by a 64/28 margin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/ohioans-skeptical-about-kasich-2016-and-more.html#more

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=1;16;7&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: barfbag on August 23, 2013, 03:35:41 pm
This is nice to see. I support same sex marriage, but think the states should decide.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ajc0918 on August 23, 2013, 04:53:47 pm
This is nice to see. I support same sex marriage, but think the states should decide.

Do you also think states should be able to ban interracial marriage?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: the 2018- The People v. The Pepe on August 23, 2013, 08:29:12 pm
Other notes from Ohio:

-For the first time ever PPP finds a plurality of Ohio voters in support of gay marriage- 48% favor it to 42% who are opposed. There's been a massive shift in attitudes over the last two years- in October of 2011 we found only 32% of voters supporting it and 55% against. Younger voters in particular are sparking the movement toward acceptance of same sex marriage- those under 45 favor it by a 64/28 margin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/ohioans-skeptical-about-kasich-2016-and-more.html#more

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=1;16;7&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


At this point, a majority of states' voters support gay marriage. About a third of the population lives in a state that allows gay marriage and almost a half live in a state that allows gay marriage by any other name.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on September 07, 2013, 04:06:41 pm
Court decision, New Mexico.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=1;16;7&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;11;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=4;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[/quote]

At this point, a majority of states' voters support gay marriage. About a third of the population lives in a state that allows gay marriage and almost a half live in a state that allows gay marriage by any other name.
[/quote]


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on September 07, 2013, 04:37:52 pm
I wouldn't color New Mexico white just yet.  The case still has to go to the state's Supreme Court.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on September 07, 2013, 05:28:34 pm
Yup.  It is too soon to decolor New Mexico, tho it probably will be the next state to go white on the map.  Maybe if one of those court cases had applied statewide, but they haven't so far.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on September 25, 2013, 06:55:25 am
Indiana, Bellwether Research:
Quote from: http://www.scribd.com/doc/170634540/IN-Ballot-Bellwether-Research-for-Freedom-Indiana-Sept-2013
A slight plurality would vote against an amendment defining marriage as being between one man and one woman.
[...]
By a 46%-43% margin, voters oppose this amendment and, with leaners, the margin is48%-45% against it.
[...]
 Just 28% say there should no legal recognition or rights for gay or lesbian couples, while 38% support civil unions or other benefits and 35% say gay and lesbians should have the legal right to marry.

SORRY, JCL


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on September 25, 2013, 02:07:58 pm
Updated to include the Indiana poll in the post above.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=1;16;7&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=3;11;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: old timey villain on September 25, 2013, 02:24:32 pm
Updated to include the Indiana poll in the post above.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=1;16;7&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=3;11;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=0;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Have you factored in the recent Georgia poll on SSM? You can find the details on the georgia megathread in the gubernatorial/statewide elections page.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on September 25, 2013, 05:46:15 pm
Updated to include the Indiana poll in the post above.

Congratulations to Indiana!  None for West Virginia, though.  

Quote
PPP West Virginia:

Q9
Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in West Virginia, or not?

23% It should

70% It should not

7% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_WV_925.pdf

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=1;16;7&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=3;11;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on September 25, 2013, 07:46:48 pm
If it weren't for the fact that I don't think it really matters, I'd be tempted to go back and separate the under 30% group into under 25% and 25-29.9% groups.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on September 25, 2013, 08:04:22 pm
If it weren't for the fact that I don't think it really matters, I'd be tempted to go back and separate the under 30% group into under 25% and 25-29.9% groups.

It wouldn't matter. Same-sex marriage is not going to be legalized in any state in which support is under 30% except through the decision of a federal court -- most likely the Supreme Court.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on September 25, 2013, 08:10:17 pm
If it weren't for the fact that I don't think it really matters, I'd be tempted to go back and separate the under 30% group into under 25% and 25-29.9% groups.

It wouldn't matter. Same-sex marriage is not going to be legalized in any state in which support is under 30% except through the decision of a federal court -- most likely the Supreme Court.

Exactly.  The only question is when that case will be decided by the Supreme Court, 2016 or 2017?  A case might reach them by 2016, but they might want to delay it until after the election.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Joe Republic on September 25, 2013, 09:07:20 pm
When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on September 26, 2013, 01:41:14 am
When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Sol on September 26, 2013, 12:58:56 pm
When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.
Well, if GA now supports SSM, Wisconsin could be anywhere!


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on September 26, 2013, 01:01:41 pm
When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.

I've seen different numbers in Wisconsin. Marquette's polling last year before the election showed that people were in favor of SSM, but I don't think they've polled that question this year for some reason.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on September 26, 2013, 06:53:22 pm
When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.
Well, if GA now supports SSM, Wisconsin could be anywhere!

I've seen different numbers in Wisconsin. Marquette's polling last year before the election showed that people were in favor of SSM, but I don't think they've polled that question this year for some reason.

In favor of SSM or civil unions?  While the latest polls I've seen out of both Georgia and Wisconsin show a solid majority in both states are in favor of recognizing same-sex couples, when the M-word is mentioned support plummeted to the point that in Wisconsin a slim plurality opposed and in Georgia a solid majority opposed.  If you remove civil unions as an option, only about 15% of those who favor civil unions but not marriage tend to support marriage in that case.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on September 27, 2013, 07:13:06 am
When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.

I doubt that. Wisconsin is culturally similar in demographics and voting patterns to Iowa. Politically it is closer to Virginia than to West Virginia. I wish that PPP had asked the question in Wisconsin. There will be plenty of opportunities due to  heated  gubernatorial and Senate races.

Social conservatism in America relates closely to Christian fundamentalism and eveangelicalism except among Mormons.   


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on September 27, 2013, 09:31:04 am
When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.

I doubt that. Wisconsin is culturally similar in demographics and voting patterns to Iowa. Politically it is closer to Virginia than to West Virginia. I wish that PPP had asked the question in Wisconsin. There will be plenty of opportunities due to heated gubernatorial and Senate races. 

Similar is not the same as. In polling, Iowa has consistently been several percentage points higher than in Wisconsin in its support of SSM. Yet even now, four years after the courts there required the state to recognize SSM, the latest poll numbers from July would place Iowa in the same aqua shade as Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, with a plurality, but not a majority supporting it.  44-46,45-46, 45-45, 46-45 are the most probable numbers from a Wisconsin poll now based on the trends within the states and polls in adjacent states.  Indeed, if anything, a comparison with Iowa would suggest no change in Wisconsin opinion.  In February Iowa polled 46-43 (+3) while in July it polled 47-44 (+3).


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on September 27, 2013, 07:09:58 pm
If the legalization of gay marriage were on this year’s ballot, would you vote in favor of the legalization of gay marriage or against it?

55% You would vote in favor of the legalization of gay marriage
38% Against
9% Not sure

http://chpp.kean.edu/poll/new-jersey-survey-1000-likely-voters-0


(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=1;16;7&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=3;11;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)



Title: NC Clerk Accepts First SSM Applications
Post by: Scott on October 15, 2013, 08:35:14 pm
Despite Constitutional Ban, A North Carolina Clerk Accepts First Same-Sex Marriage Applications (http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/despite-constitutional-ban-a-north-carolina-clerk-accepts-first-same-sex-marriage-applications/marriage/2013/10/15/76844#.Ul3s2xBv-48)


Title: Indiana and Virginia SSM Polls
Post by: Scott on October 16, 2013, 03:20:20 pm
Dueling polls in Indiana on same-sex marriage (http://www.nuvo.net/TheEdBlog/archives/2013/10/10/dueling-polls-on-same-sex-marriage#.Ul7zHxBv-48)

The Indiana Family Institute released the following poll:
Quote
More than three out of five (62%) likely voters would vote yes to the proposed constitutional
amendment, while only 33% of likely voters would vote no.

TOTAL YES 62%
TOTAL NO 33%
HARD UNDECIDED: 6%

Whereas Freedom Indiana released this poll:
Quote
By a 46%-43% margin, voters oppose this amendment and, with leaners, the margin is 48%-45% against it. Voters over age 65 are the only age cohort more in favor than opposed.



Different story in Virginia: (http://www.wtop.com/120/3483313/Poll-Va-voters-support-gay-marriage)

Quote
The poll finds that 56 percent of likely voters questioned oppose the ban on same sex marriage, compared to 36 percent who favor it.



(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=1;16;7&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;0;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on October 16, 2013, 04:53:37 pm
Besides that they likely used different screens for likely voters, there was one other significant difference between the two polls.  In the Freedom Indiana poll informed people before hand that there was already a law on Indiana's books preventing recognition of SSM before asking people if they supported an amendment.  The IFI poll suggests that people were left with the impression that the amendment would add something not already covered by existing law.

So his suggests that there are a fair number of Indianans who are opposed to SSM, but see no reason to make a ban part of the state constitution when it is already part of the law.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Griff on October 16, 2013, 06:05:59 pm
Georgia needs to be updated. There was a poll released on 9/23 via the AJC that showed 48/43 support (initial release was subscription-only, but poll question/results can be viewed here (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164112.msg3878056#msg3878056) and is also referenced here (http://www.projectqatlanta.com/news_articles/view/want_gay_marriage_in_georgia_itll_cost_you?gid=14406)).

Quote
801 Adults

Question 1: “Do you think it should be legal or illegal for gay and lesbian couples to get married in Georgia?”

Legal: 48% (strongly 30%, somewhat 17%)
Illegal: 43% (strongly 38%, somewhat 5%)
Don’t know/No answer: 9%

Question 2: “Has your opinion toward same-sex marriage changed over the past few years, or not?”
Yes, has changed: 16%
No, stayed the same: 83%
Don’t know/No answer: 1%


Title: Georgia SSM Poll
Post by: Scott on October 16, 2013, 07:16:48 pm
Georgia, really?  How reliable is AJC?



(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=2;0;2&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;0;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Georgia SSM Poll
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Griff on October 16, 2013, 08:11:42 pm
Georgia, really?  How reliable is AJC?

AJC usually uses the same pollster as WaPo (Abt SRBI). It would appear to be an outlier, but I doubt that it is that far off. Still, a bit of skepticism is necessary; PPP polled GA in August and showed 60/32 (against).

Here's their final poll for Georgia in 2012. (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161624.0)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on October 18, 2013, 03:18:00 pm
With the New Jersey Supreme Court refusing to issue a stay (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180793.0) in the order requiring SSM licenses to be issued starting Monday, time to turn NJ white:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=3;0;2&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;0;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on October 21, 2013, 10:11:32 pm
Indiana Family Institution is a right-wing, Christian fundamentalist group. As such its polling could be suspect. I notice that its headlines include:


Iowa Small Business Owners Sued for not Promoting Homosexuality...Is Indiana Next?
October 11, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
Poll Shows Strong Support for Marriage Amendment among Hoosier Voters
October 10, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
The Social Costs of Abandoning the Meaning of Marriage
September 13, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
Leading Academics Can't Make the Case for Evolution
- See more at: http://www.hoosierfamily.org/#sthash.FyH5d3qA.dpuf



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on October 21, 2013, 11:20:08 pm
Indiana Family Institution is a right-wing, Christian fundamentalist group. As such its polling could be suspect.

Yeah, I'm not sanguine about how IFI picked likely voters.  Conversely, Freedom Indiana did a push poll in that they provided information beyond the language of the amendment prior to asking the question and they asked registered voters rather than likely voters.  For an off year election that will be even more significant than with a presidential election.  I can't see including either poll in the map.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: barfbag on October 21, 2013, 11:25:27 pm
Indiana Family Institution is a right-wing, Christian fundamentalist group. As such its polling could be suspect. I notice that its headlines include:


Iowa Small Business Owners Sued for not Promoting Homosexuality...Is Indiana Next?
October 11, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
Poll Shows Strong Support for Marriage Amendment among Hoosier Voters
October 10, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
The Social Costs of Abandoning the Meaning of Marriage
September 13, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
Leading Academics Can't Make the Case for Evolution
- See more at: http://www.hoosierfamily.org/#sthash.FyH5d3qA.dpuf



Reading your headlines makes me think my party is just as bad as the other side when it comes to picking favorites, but only when we do pick favorites. Hoosier Family sounds very biased as does 99% of media. One of my favorites is the USA Today where I haven't noticed much partisanship.


Title: Hawaii and Illinois SSM Polls
Post by: Scott on October 21, 2013, 11:37:20 pm
New poll shows dramatic support for marriage equality in Illinois (http://chicago.gopride.com/news/article.cfm/articleid/48517681)
Quote
A strong majority of 52 percent of Illinois voters support legalizing marriage for gay and lesbian couples, and the figure grew to 54 percent support when pollsters shared information about the summer's U.S. Supreme Court ruling that overturned federal restrictions against recognizing same-sex marriages.

Hawaii Support For Same-Sex Marriage Grows  (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/21/hawaii-same-sex-marriage_n_4136931.html)
Quote
Hawaii voters are split over making same-sex marriage legal in the islands, with 44 percent in support and 44 percent opposed.

Hawaii's numbers are truly baffling.  Is there any good explanation for them?



(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;4&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;0;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: © tweed on October 21, 2013, 11:41:25 pm

Hawaii Support For Same-Sex Marriage Grows  (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/21/hawaii-same-sex-marriage_n_4136931.html)
Quote
Hawaii voters are split over making same-sex marriage legal in the islands, with 44 percent in support and 44 percent opposed.

Hawaii's numbers are truly baffling.  Is there any good explanation for them?

you're going to get racially informed answers with possibly including words like 'traditional', 'culture', and 'honor'


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on October 21, 2013, 11:57:09 pm

Hawaii Support For Same-Sex Marriage Grows  (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/21/hawaii-same-sex-marriage_n_4136931.html)
Quote
Hawaii voters are split over making same-sex marriage legal in the islands, with 44 percent in support and 44 percent opposed.

Hawaii's numbers are truly baffling.  Is there any good explanation for them?

you're going to get racially informed answers with possibly including words like 'traditional', 'culture', and 'honor'

Nah.  It's probably just anger at the gays for stealing the rainbow.  ;)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: publicunofficial on October 22, 2013, 01:28:12 am

Hawaii Support For Same-Sex Marriage Grows  (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/21/hawaii-same-sex-marriage_n_4136931.html)
Quote
Hawaii voters are split over making same-sex marriage legal in the islands, with 44 percent in support and 44 percent opposed.

Hawaii's numbers are truly baffling.  Is there any good explanation for them?


Many Hawaiian Polynesians/Asians tend to vote in the same way that Southern blacks do AKA heavily Democratic but opposed to things like gay marriage


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: TDAS04 on October 22, 2013, 10:35:21 am

Hawaii Support For Same-Sex Marriage Grows  (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/21/hawaii-same-sex-marriage_n_4136931.html)
Quote
Hawaii voters are split over making same-sex marriage legal in the islands, with 44 percent in support and 44 percent opposed.

Hawaii's numbers are truly baffling.  Is there any good explanation for them?


Many Hawaiian Polynesians/Asians tend to vote in the same way that Southern blacks do AKA heavily Democratic but opposed to things like gay marriage

Asian Democrats are not as pro-SSM as white liberals, but they're not as opposed as blacks (nor are they as overwhelmingly Democratic).  On prop 8 in California, whites and Asians voted the same (rejecting prop 8 with 51%).

Still, Hawaii might be slightly different, and the Asian population probably does make the state less pro-SSM than what such a Democratic state would typically be.


Title: Re: Hawaii and Illinois SSM Polls
Post by: True Federalist on October 23, 2013, 07:18:31 pm

Arkansas Poll shows modest improvement in SSM approval, but still dismal from a national perspective.

http://plsc.uark.edu/7129.php (http://plsc.uark.edu/7129.php)

Figures are among very likely voters, change is from the 2011 version of the Arkansas Poll

 24% (+2%) Same Sex Marriage
 23% (+1%) Civil Unions, but no SSM
 46% (-4%) No legal recognition at all

Since the map is of the two pronged question and not the three pronged one asked here, I didn't add it to the map, tho really the only question is what shade of red would be the result.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on October 25, 2013, 11:24:31 am
Montana (MSU Billings):

47% legal
43% illegal

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/education/new-msub-poll-reveals-montanans-opposed-shutdown-disapprove-of-obama/article_00d85a5e-ae77-5b8d-958b-3d41052cc71e.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on October 25, 2013, 11:37:04 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;4&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;0;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on October 25, 2013, 11:56:11 am
Montana (MSU Billings):

47% legal
43% illegal

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/education/new-msub-poll-reveals-montanans-opposed-shutdown-disapprove-of-obama/article_00d85a5e-ae77-5b8d-958b-3d41052cc71e.html

:D


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on October 25, 2013, 12:01:48 pm
Montana (MSU Billings):

47% legal
43% illegal

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/education/new-msub-poll-reveals-montanans-opposed-shutdown-disapprove-of-obama/article_00d85a5e-ae77-5b8d-958b-3d41052cc71e.html

I hate to be a downer, but I notice the article says they surveyed equal numbers of landline and cell phone users.  Wouldn't that mean that the cell phone users are overweighted and thus the poll skews young and thus would overstate SSM support?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: TDAS04 on October 25, 2013, 01:28:11 pm
I find Montana's promising survey results more believable than Georgia's, even if both are inflated. 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on October 25, 2013, 07:05:41 pm
Montana (MSU Billings):

47% legal
43% illegal

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/education/new-msub-poll-reveals-montanans-opposed-shutdown-disapprove-of-obama/article_00d85a5e-ae77-5b8d-958b-3d41052cc71e.html


It would be acceptable if the results are normed so that the different populations fit the general distribution. Thus if one calls 500 people who have landlines and get a 40-60 result (for/against)  among them and 100 with cell phones only and  get a 60-40 result , and know that the split in land-line users and cell-phone users is 80-20 landlines, then one gets a 44-56 result.
I hate to be a downer, but I notice the article says they surveyed equal numbers of landline and cell phone users.  Wouldn't that mean that the cell phone users are overweighted and thus the poll skews young and thus would overstate SSM support?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on October 25, 2013, 11:26:26 pm
Montana (MSU Billings):

47% legal
43% illegal

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/education/new-msub-poll-reveals-montanans-opposed-shutdown-disapprove-of-obama/article_00d85a5e-ae77-5b8d-958b-3d41052cc71e.html

I hate to be a downer, but I notice the article says they surveyed equal numbers of landline and cell phone users.  Wouldn't that mean that the cell phone users are overweighted and thus the poll skews young and thus would overstate SSM support?

It would be acceptable if the results are normed so that the different populations fit the general distribution. Thus if one calls 500 people who have landlines and get a 40-60 result (for/against)  among them and 100 with cell phones only and  get a 60-40 result , and know that the split in land-line users and cell-phone users is 80-20 landlines, then one gets a 44-56 result.

Except there's no indication they normed the data.

http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/2013/2013_State_Poll.pdf (http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/2013/2013_State_Poll.pdf)

They also didn't release info on the age or partisan distribution of their sample, but looking at their past polls, I see they've never done so. (Tho they do at times release info on how particular subsamples polled, they don't include the subsample sizes.)

I don't doubt that SSM support has increased since they last polled this subject three years ago:

http://www.msubillings.edu/cas/nams/MSUB_Poll_Oct_2010.pdf (http://www.msubillings.edu/cas/nams/MSUB_Poll_Oct_2010.pdf)

Then the numbers were:
Support: 33.9%
Oppose: 51.6%

A majority (58.5%) of Democrats and plurality of independents (45.2%) supported legalization. A majority (72.2%) of Republicans opposed legalization.

The partisan breakdown in the 2013 poll was:

A majority (76%) of Democrats and plurality of independents (47%) supported same sex marriage, while a majority (61%) of Republicans opposed them.

Those numbers are reasonably consistent with the change in the topline numbers, but as I said, I'm concerned the high number of cell phone responses have skewed the age distribution younger than it actually is and SSM is one issue where getting the age distribution correct is crucial for an accurate result.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on October 29, 2013, 06:24:36 pm
Wisconsin, Marquette Law School. A regional anomaly vanishes.

Quote
Support for same-sex marriage has increased over the past 12 months in Wisconsin, with 53 percent now supporting same-sex marriage, 24 percent favoring civil unions and 19 percent saying there should be no legal recognition for same-sex unions. This question was asked of 400 respondents and has a margin of error of +/-5.0 percentage points. In October 2012, 44 percent said they favored same-sex marriage, with 28 percent favoring civil unions and 23 percent opposed to any legal recognition.


https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2013/10/29/marquette-law-school-poll-shows-walker-in-tight-race-with-burke-for-wisconsin-governor-in-2014/

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=1;16;7&HI=1;4;5&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=3;11;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=1;3;5&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=3;14;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)




Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Solidarity Forever on October 29, 2013, 08:13:50 pm
NJ should be white.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on October 29, 2013, 08:32:32 pm
Yeah, several states are off in that map of yours pbrower. Besides New Jersey, Montana, Indiana, and Hawaii are off, possibly others.  You must have snagged an out of date map.  The differences are all showing greater support of SSM, save in Indiana.  Looks like for that state you picked the more favorable of the two slanted push polls from dubious pollsters that were released at about the same time, but which no one else has been including in the map.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;4&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;0;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;9&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on October 30, 2013, 12:48:16 am
I did clip and paste from an obsolete map. Mea culpa.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on October 30, 2013, 01:30:19 am
I did clip and paste from an obsolete map. Mea culpa.

We're all human, except maybe barfbag considering how often he posts.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 30, 2013, 02:24:08 am
I did clip and paste from an obsolete map. Mea culpa.

We're all human, except maybe barfbag considering how often he posts.

You think t_host is human too?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 30, 2013, 03:07:05 am
There's no way Georgia supports Same-Sex Marriage. It shouldn't even be close too.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on October 30, 2013, 09:55:16 am
There's no way Georgia supports Same-Sex Marriage. It shouldn't even be close too.

If black attitudes on SSM were to change to conform to Democratic orthodoxy, then yes the South could become supportive of SSM.  However, given the racial polarization of politics down here, I don't expect any change in the law down here by the GOP dominated legislatures, so the change in the law will have to wait for the Supreme Court ruling in a few years time.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on October 30, 2013, 10:14:44 am
There's no way Georgia supports Same-Sex Marriage. It shouldn't even be close too.

If black attitudes on SSM were to change to conform to Democratic orthodoxy, then yes the South could become supportive of SSM.  However, given the racial polarization of politics down here, I don't expect any change in the law down here by the GOP dominated legislatures, so the change in the law will have to wait for the Supreme Court ruling in a few years time.

Three words:

Atlanta Metropolitan Area.

The conservatives in surrounding counties, even if they are dyed-in-the-wool racists, find themselves having to deal with gays and lesbians in certain settings of business.   


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: the 2018- The People v. The Pepe on October 30, 2013, 10:40:14 am
There's no way Georgia supports Same-Sex Marriage. It shouldn't even be close too.

If black attitudes on SSM were to change to conform to Democratic orthodoxy, then yes the South could become supportive of SSM.  However, given the racial polarization of politics down here, I don't expect any change in the law down here by the GOP dominated legislatures, so the change in the law will have to wait for the Supreme Court ruling in a few years time.

...with "interesting" results. See the thread about the young new assistant on FOX.

Three words:

Atlanta Metropolitan Area.

The conservatives in surrounding counties, even if they are dyed-in-the-wool racists, find themselves having to deal with gays and lesbians in certain settings of business.   


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Brittain33 on October 30, 2013, 11:17:50 am
Atlanta Metropolitan Area.

The conservatives in surrounding counties, even if they are dyed-in-the-wool racists, find themselves having to deal with gays and lesbians in certain settings of business.   

Look at the results on NC's DOMA amendment in Charlotte... lots of Romney/No precincts. Much of Atlanta's suburbs may act and vote like Dallas suburbs, but other areas will vote like Charlotte's.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on November 03, 2013, 06:50:57 am
SC - The Winthrop Poll:

Quote
Q: Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as a marriage between a man and a woman?

Should be valid – 38.5 percent
Should not be valid – 52.2 percent

The Winthrop Poll interviewed 887 adults in South Carolina from Oct. 19 to 27. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percent.

http://www.thestate.com/2013/11/03/3074150/exclusive-majority-oppose-but.html

Quote
Same-sex marriage has been outlawed in state law since 1996, when the state passed a Defense of Marriage law, saying it would not recognize same-sex marriages.

In 2006, S.C. voters overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment stating that the only lawful, recognizable marriage in the Palmetto State is one between a man and a woman. The amendment passed, 78 percent to 22 percent.

A 2006 Winthrop Poll, taken before voters cast ballots on the constitutional amendment, had results in line with that outcome.

Other polls also suggest South Carolinians’ opposition to legal same-sex marriage is waning.

A 2011 poll from Public Policy Polling showed that 21 percent of S.C. voters said should be legal, with 69 percent saying it should be illegal.

In December, another Public Policy poll asked S.C. voters whether same-sex marriage should be allowed – 27 percent said yes, while 62 percent said no.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: politicallefty on November 03, 2013, 07:53:17 am
If that poll is accurate, that's really not bad at all for a state like South Carolina.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on November 03, 2013, 03:35:59 pm
Updating for the latest SC poll done by Winthrop.  They're usually fairly reliable, tho it would be nice to see crosstabs on the results.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;4&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;0;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on November 05, 2013, 06:50:51 pm

Quote
By Monique Garcia and Ray Long Clout Street

5:42 p.m. CST, November 5, 2013

SPRINGFIELD --- The General Assembly today narrowly approved a gay marriage bill, clearing the way for Illinois to become the 15th state to legalize same-sex unions.

The bill got 61 votes in the House, one more than the bare minimum needed to send the measure back to the Senate, which quickly signed off. Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn has said he would sign the bill into law should it reach his desk.

The House vote followed more than two-and-a-half hours of debate in which supporters said it’s time for Illinois to make marriage equal for all and opponents raised concerns about protecting the institution of marriage and the religious beliefs of those who say marriage should be between a man and woman.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/clout/chi-gay-marriage-illinois-20131105,0,7759837.story

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;4&ID=0;4;7&IL=3;20;3&IN=4;0;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on November 05, 2013, 07:17:52 pm
Since gay marriage in Illinois is inevitable at this point...


(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;4&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=4;0;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on November 05, 2013, 07:46:21 pm
Here's how I predict SSM laws will go:


Colorado, Nevada, and Oregon will likely be next. Approval over 50% implies that legislation gets passed if the relevant legislatures bring it up.

But that is as far as it goes until at least 2015. As things are, same-sex marriage will take more time. 

Several states (notably WI, MI, and VA) will legalize same-sex marriage as soon as Democrats win majorities in both Houses of the state legislature. Such will absolutely not happen until 2015, at the least. The Republican Party will continue to pay off the Fundamentalists with suppression of gay rights because those Fundamentalists don't give a d@mn about economics. Obviously. Michigan will have to dump Rick Snyder as Governor and Wisconsin will have to dump Scott Walker. Ohio and Pennsylvania are more iffy -- because support for same-sex marriage is still under 50% even if it is positive.

Count on Republicans to exploit gutter fears about same-sex marriage in 2014. Republicans will have the predictable ads that associate same-sex marriage with all sorts of horrors.

Arizona, Florida, Indiana, and Montana are more problematic. The trend has been toward support for the legalization of same-sex marriage.  The Republican Party is stronger in three of the states, but in Florida support is still underwater. That can change quickly.

New Mexico is an oddity. The state law has no ban on same-sex marriage, but no permission. New Mexico would have to enact a ban on same-sex marriage to stop it, which remains possible. Short of that New Mexico is ambiguous because support for same-sex marriage is still underwater.   

Some states are going to enact same-sex marriage with economics as a pretext. Want jobs? Then vote for same-sex marriage.  Short of an oil boom I can't think of anything more likely to create jobs -- not tax breaks, not Right to Work (for starvation wages), and not lax environmental laws.     

My estimates based on polling:


(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=2;11;8&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=2;9;2&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=2;29;6&GA=1;0;8&HI=2;0;4&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;20;1&IN=2;0;6&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=2;16;4&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=2;0;8&NV=2;6;2&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=4;5;3&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=2;18;6&OK=0;7;7&OR=2;7;2&PA=2;20;6&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=2;13;4&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=2;10;4&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

Predicted date of same-sex marriage legalization:

white -- already legal
light blue -- 2013 or 2014 -- 20% saturation     
light-medium blue 2015 or 2016 if things go right -- 40% saturation
blue 2017 or 2018 -- 60% saturation
2019 or 2020 -- 80% saturation

New Mexico has an ambiguous law

ambiguous law -- yellow


Others? All bets are off, and and same-sex marriage is more likely to be established through some court ruling. Heck, Utah goes for same-sex marriage as soon as the Mormon hierarchy so says -- but probably not before then.


40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)Here's my prediction


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on November 12, 2013, 08:39:38 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=4;0;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on November 12, 2013, 08:42:04 pm
Since this is the sort of informative, but not posted in every day topic that should be stickied, I've stickied it.  If you think there is some other thread that meets that standard, PM me and I'll consider the request.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 13, 2013, 12:16:31 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=0&pv_p=0&ev_p=0&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;5&AZ=2;11;5&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;6&CO=3;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=1;3;5&DC=1;3;9&FL=3;29;4&GA=2;16;5&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;20;5&IN=2;11;5&IA=1;6;5&KS=2;6;5&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;8;5&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;11;6&MI=3;16;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;5&MO=2;10;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=3;6;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;14;5&NM=3;5;5&NY=1;29;6&NC=2;15;5&ND=2;3;5&OH=3;18;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=3;7;5&PA=3;20;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;9;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;5&TX=2;38;5&UT=2;6;7&VT=1;3;6&VA=3;13;5&WA=1;12;5&WV=2;5;6&WI=3;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;5&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;5&NE3=2;1;6)

206: Voted for Romney and SSM not legal
199: Voted for Obama and SSM legal
133: Voted for Obama, but SSM not legal


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on November 13, 2013, 12:18:37 am
I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: barfbag on November 13, 2013, 12:23:16 am
Most battleground states are green. In fact all the green states are close ones.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 13, 2013, 12:23:46 am
I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?

Most likely, it'll be the first state to have a democratic legislature and a democratic governor (besides the conservative democrats in KY and WV) necessary for legalizing it. Arizona is a good guess. Almost all Romney states are republican-dominated at the state level, so it'll be awhile for it to happen (unless the courts force them to at some point).


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 13, 2013, 01:45:59 am
I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?

Wyoming.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: morgieb on November 13, 2013, 02:41:19 am
I'm gonna say Montana. The Democrats have a monopoly on the governorship and social ideals in the West aren't nearly as nutty as they are down south.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on November 13, 2013, 09:42:04 am
Montana could do civil unions quickly if it wishes, but SSM requires repealing a state constitutional amendment.  There are only five states left that do not have constitutional provisions prohibiting state recognition of SSM, that do not have statewide recognition of it: Indiana, New Mexico Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  Alaska, Arizona, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, and Tennessee are the states whose constitutions ban recognizing SSM, but which could enact civil unions, but have not yet done so.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on November 13, 2013, 04:22:01 pm
I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?

Indiana -- for economic reasons.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on November 14, 2013, 12:32:21 pm
FL (Gravis Marketing):

45-43 legal

http://gravismarketingblog.com/2013/11/14/gravis-marketing-florida-governor-poll


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: the 2018- The People v. The Pepe on November 14, 2013, 12:48:31 pm
I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?

Wyoming.
I don't think so.
Wyoming has been pushing to the right on social issues though I still think they are few years away from being some sort of faux bible belt state like the Dakotas or Nebraska. They get a lot of Southerners to work the mines and wells and the libertarian Republicans that make up the plurality of voters in this state might be melding into modern right-wing orthodoxy.  John Barraso is a good example of this. He used to be a moderate libertarian conservative and now he is a borderline TEA bagger.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on November 14, 2013, 01:41:06 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;0;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=4;0;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on November 14, 2013, 02:11:27 pm
Florida goes slightly positive, and in a poll involving a right-wing magazine (Human Events):


(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=4;0;4&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on November 14, 2013, 03:16:02 pm
Indiana supprots SSM by 2% and opposes a popossed ban by 20%.

http://blogs.wishtv.com/2013/11/14/wish-tvball-state-hoosier-survey-shows-growing-opposition-to-marriage-amendment/ (http://blogs.wishtv.com/2013/11/14/wish-tvball-state-hoosier-survey-shows-growing-opposition-to-marriage-amendment/)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on November 14, 2013, 03:20:21 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 14, 2013, 05:16:30 pm
That map looks like something out of a sci-fi novel. I guess unless you live in the underdeveloped and uncultured parts of America that cling to "guns and religion", it is now verboten to express homophobic sentiments.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on November 14, 2013, 06:16:05 pm
That map looks like something out of a sci-fi novel. I guess unless you live in the underdeveloped and uncultured parts of America that cling to "guns and religion", it is now verboten to express homophobic sentiments.

Indiana is very conservative, and you can trust that people cling to 'guns and religion'.

People are catching on to the idea that homosexuality is no threat to people who have no predisposition to homosexuality.

If Republicans try to use homosexuality as a wedge issue it will backfire worse than a car whose catalytic converter has been removed. 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 14, 2013, 06:23:25 pm
That map looks like something out of a sci-fi novel. I guess unless you live in the underdeveloped and uncultured parts of America that cling to "guns and religion", it is now verboten to express homophobic sentiments.

Indiana is very conservative, and you can trust that people cling to 'guns and religion'.

People are catching on to the idea that homosexuality is no threat to people who have no predisposition to homosexuality.

If Republicans try to use homosexuality as a wedge issue it will backfire worse than a car whose catalytic converter has been removed. 

Indianapolis and its suburbs might cling to religion but its denizens certainly don't cling to guns and they want to maintain a veneer of respectability. My sense is that upscale Republicans want nothing to do with this issue because its increasingly beyond the pale to be against gay rights in certain circles.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 18, 2013, 02:16:37 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


By 2016 we could see direct initiatives legalize gay marriage in AZ, OR, NV, CO, MT, MI, OH, and FL.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on November 18, 2013, 01:21:45 pm
The Dakotas and Nebraska could be interesting.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: TDAS04 on November 19, 2013, 01:10:20 pm
I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?

I would guess Arizona, Montana, or Alaska.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Badger on November 19, 2013, 09:47:36 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


By 2016 we could see direct initiatives legalize gay marriage in AZ, OR, NV, CO, MT, MI, OH, and FL.

OH will likely have one in 2014


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: JacobNC on November 19, 2013, 10:13:06 pm
Georgia more supportive of gay marriage than North Carolina?  Georgia supportive of gay marriage AT ALL?  Hard to believe.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on November 19, 2013, 10:47:17 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


By 2016 we could see direct initiatives legalize gay marriage in AZ, OR, NV, CO, MT, MI, OH, and FL.

OH will likely have one in 2014

In 2004 the Republicans put a "gay marriage" proposition on the ballot to bring out the fundamentalist voters, and such may have well served R politicians. In 2014 such could backfire.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on November 20, 2013, 03:35:18 pm
Mississippi (PPP)

Mississippi will not be among the next batch of states to legalize same-sex marriage. The most likely way in which same-sex marriage becomes lawful in Mississippi is a Supreme Court ruling analogous to Loving v. Virginia (the ruling that legalized interracial marriage in states in which it was still unlawful).

Quote
Mississippi probably continues to be the most conservative state in the country when it comes to same sex marriage though. Only 22% of voters think it should be legal compared to 69% who think it should be illegal. Even with those numbers you can see signs of a shift though- 2 years ago we found only 13% support for gay marriage with 78% of voters opposed to it. There's been a marked shift in support among Democrats, from a 19/66 spread a couple years ago to 40/48 now. That's largely due to movement among black voters who have gone from 15% support to 37% since 2011.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/mississippi-miscellany.html#more


(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;9;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
[


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Maxwell on November 21, 2013, 02:50:16 pm
Civil Unions are actually narrowly positive in Mississippi, so there's hope for movement in the right direction.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: TDAS04 on November 23, 2013, 04:13:16 pm
According to that Mississippi poll, voters aged 18-29 are only at 21% support for same-sex marriage, but those 30-45 are much more supportive at 39%.  Interesting.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 23, 2013, 04:20:13 pm
According to that Mississippi poll, voters aged 18-29 are only at 21% support for same-sex marriage, but those 30-45 are much more supportive at 39%.  Interesting.

That's really weird, it should be the opposite.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: TDAS04 on November 23, 2013, 04:23:11 pm
According to that Mississippi poll, voters aged 18-29 are only at 21% support for same-sex marriage, but those 30-45 are much more supportive at 39%.  Interesting.

That's really weird, it should be the opposite.

Actually, as I look more closely, both age groups are at 57% opposed.  Those under 30 are just more "unsure" (21%) than everyone else. 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on November 23, 2013, 04:25:20 pm
According to that Mississippi poll, voters aged 18-29 are only at 21% support for same-sex marriage, but those 30-45 are much more supportive at 39%.  Interesting.

That's really weird, it should be the opposite.

The entire sample of voters 18-45 is 30% of n=502, so 18-29 and 30-45 combined are only 151 people.  That means that the sample of 18-29 is probably around n=50 at most, for a gigantic Margin of Error of +/-14%.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on December 09, 2013, 06:27:04 pm
53-38 support in Colorado (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_CO_120913.pdf)



(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;5&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on December 10, 2013, 07:14:22 am
-Colorado legalized civil unions earlier this year but voters in the state are ready to take the next step and make gay marriage legal too. 53% think it should be allowed to just 39% that think it should continue to be illegal. Among voters under the age of 45 it's a 60/32 spread in support of legalizing it. 80% of voters in the state at least support civil unions, compared to only 18% who think there shouldn't be any legal recognition at all for same sex couples. Even with Republicans there's 66% support for civil unions.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/12/colorado-miscellany.html#more


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Mr. Illini on December 12, 2013, 01:38:39 am
Am I the only one who is a bit puzzled by the support in Georgia?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on December 12, 2013, 05:32:14 am
Am I the only one who is a bit puzzled by the support in Georgia?

Atlanta (the city, not the suburbs) has a considerable LGBT community with about 1 in 8 Atlantans identifying as LGBT.  Between that and that African Americans in general appear to be rapidly abandoning their opposition to gay marriage and embracing their fellow Democrats, its not too surprising, tho I suspect the most recent poll is likely an outlier.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on December 19, 2013, 01:31:49 pm
Update. (http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S3252858.shtml?cat=504#.UrM7beLS2Z0)

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;2&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on December 20, 2013, 10:56:21 am
Ohio (PPP):

Do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to get married?

Strongly support.............................................. 28%
Somewhat support.......................................... 19% =====> 47%

Somewhat oppose .......................................... 12%
Strongly oppose.............................................. 36% =====> 48%

Q6 Thinking again about the November 2014 election, a proposal to amend the Ohio Constitution may appear on the ballot. This constitutional amendment would allow two consenting adults to be married, so long as they are not nearer of kin than second cousins, are not currently married to someone, and no religious institutions will be required to perform or recognize a marriage. If the election were held today, would you vote in favor of this amendment to the Ohio Constitution, or would you vote against it?

Strongly for ..................................................... 34%
Not so strongly for........................................... 18% =====> 52%

Strongly against .............................................. 33%
Not so strongly against ................................... 5%  =====> 38%

https://freedomohio.com/poll


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on December 20, 2013, 03:07:47 pm
Updating for the Ohio poll in the previous post:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=1;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: PJ on December 20, 2013, 03:27:41 pm
What happened to Ohio?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: angus on December 20, 2013, 03:43:40 pm
What happened to Ohio?

Ernest changed it to conform to the original color code in the legend below the map.

The link provided shows a growing acceptance of same-sex marriage, and that continues.  In 2004, they were 38% in support.  Now it's 47% in support.  Most those polls report an error of a few percent, which could explain the slight difference in the last two polls (48% earlier this year, now 47%), but overall it's about what you'd expect given the trend in Ohio.

As for the color change, there was a slight support earlier this year, now there's slight opposition.  Actually, reading that as noise, you could call it a tie, but I think Ernest reserves yellow for reported ties, not statistical ones.  It's probably best that he sticks to the original color scheme, otherwise it becomes conjectural.  Don't read too much into the small fluctuations.  These polls really aren't all that scientific, and a five percent difference is not unusual.



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: IceSpear on December 20, 2013, 04:42:04 pm
Wouldn't it make more sense to put these initiatives on the ballot on 2016, when there's higher turnout among young voters and presumably the issue will have moved even further in the pro-gay marriage direction by then? I could definitely see anti-gay marriage forces pulling off upsets in 2014 which could blunt momentum.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on December 20, 2013, 05:46:10 pm
UTAH


Quote
Federal judge strikes down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage

By Brooke Adams

| The Salt Lake Tribune


A federal judge in Utah Friday struck down the state’s ban on same-sex marriage, saying the law violates the U.S. Constitution’s guarantees of equal protection and due process.

"The state’s current laws deny its gay and lesbian citizens their fundamental right to marry and, in so doing, demean the dignity of these same-sex couples for no rational reason," wrote U.S. District Court Judge Robert J. Shelby. "Accordingly, the court finds that these laws are unconstitutional."

Shelby’s ruling is the first decision to address whether a state may ban same-sex marriages or refuse to recognize legal same-sex marriages since the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark decision this summer that struck down the federal Defense of Marriage Act. The Utah judge ruled just 16 days after he heard arguments in the case and well before his self-imposed deadline to render a decision by Jan. 7, when the next hearing in the matter was to be held.

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/news/57291925-78/marriage-utah-laws-shelby.html.csp

Who'd a thunk it? It's not April Fool's day.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=1;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=4;6;1&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on December 20, 2013, 06:25:19 pm
You'll probably be reverting that back to dark red within hours of a few days though, tbh.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on December 20, 2013, 06:28:40 pm
Ohio (PPP):

Do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to get married?

Strongly support.............................................. 28%
Somewhat support.......................................... 19% =====> 47%

Somewhat oppose .......................................... 12%
Strongly oppose.............................................. 36% =====> 48%

Q6 Thinking again about the November 2014 election, a proposal to amend the Ohio Constitution may appear on the ballot. This constitutional amendment would allow two consenting adults to be married, so long as they are not nearer of kin than second cousins, are not currently married to someone, and no religious institutions will be required to perform or recognize a marriage. If the election were held today, would you vote in favor of this amendment to the Ohio Constitution, or would you vote against it?

Strongly for ..................................................... 34%
Not so strongly for........................................... 18% =====> 52%

Strongly against .............................................. 33%
Not so strongly against ................................... 5%  =====> 38%

https://freedomohio.com/poll

So Ohians oppose SSM 48-47, but would vote to allow it 52-38?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on December 20, 2013, 06:34:11 pm
Ohio (PPP):

Do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to get married?

Strongly support.............................................. 28%
Somewhat support.......................................... 19% =====> 47%

Somewhat oppose .......................................... 12%
Strongly oppose.............................................. 36% =====> 48%

Q6 Thinking again about the November 2014 election, a proposal to amend the Ohio Constitution may appear on the ballot. This constitutional amendment would allow two consenting adults to be married, so long as they are not nearer of kin than second cousins, are not currently married to someone, and no religious institutions will be required to perform or recognize a marriage. If the election were held today, would you vote in favor of this amendment to the Ohio Constitution, or would you vote against it?

Strongly for ..................................................... 34%
Not so strongly for........................................... 18% =====> 52%

Strongly against .............................................. 33%
Not so strongly against ................................... 5%  =====> 38%

https://freedomohio.com/poll

So Ohians oppose SSM 48-47, but would vote to allow it 52-38?

That news release did not indicate the order in which questions were asked.  If that second question was asked first, some of the respondents likely were not thinking about SSM when they gave their answer.  There's also the possibility that some of the SSM opposition comes from concerns that churches and other institutions would be forced to participate in gay marriages even in they don't want to.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on December 20, 2013, 08:15:56 pm
You'll probably be reverting that back to dark red within hours of a few days though, tbh.

Reverting to dark red? Utah was never polled. Technically it was gray.

I make no distinctions in a state in which SSM has been legalized either through legislative process, referendum, or a court decision. If it is legal it is legal. Of course if specific legislation adjudged Constitutional should be enacted before the state is polled, then Utah goes back to gray. It's all nit-picking for now.



 



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nichlemn on December 22, 2013, 08:23:33 pm
What do people think will be the last Kerry state to get SSM? Based on popular support it would appear to be PA. But the makeups of the legislature and judges have a significant impact. For instance, Corbett is a lot more likely to lose re-election than the other Kerry state R governors, and a D Governor would presumably help a lot, but maybe the other factors would outweigh this.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 22, 2013, 08:56:02 pm
What do people think will be the last Kerry state to get SSM? Based on popular support it would appear to be PA. But the makeups of the legislature and judges have a significant impact. For instance, Corbett is a lot more likely to lose re-election than the other Kerry state R governors, and a D Governor would presumably help a lot, but maybe the other factors would outweigh this.

4 Kerry states haven't legalized, and those are Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Oregon already looks like it has a potential ballot measure next year (which I assume will pass if put up). The other 3 states all have republican governors and legislatures, so those will be difficult. But gun to my head: Wisconsin. Just because Walker is the likeliest of those governors to win re-election. Although the republicans here have a weak majority in the Senate. In order from most likely to least likely.

1. Oregon
2. Pennsylvania
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on December 23, 2013, 04:10:02 am
What do people think will be the last Kerry state to get SSM? Based on popular support it would appear to be PA. But the makeups of the legislature and judges have a significant impact. For instance, Corbett is a lot more likely to lose re-election than the other Kerry state R governors, and a D Governor would presumably help a lot, but maybe the other factors would outweigh this.

4 Kerry states haven't legalized, and those are Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Oregon already looks like it has a potential ballot measure next year (which I assume will pass if put up). The other 3 states all have republican governors and legislatures, so those will be difficult. But gun to my head: Wisconsin. Just because Walker is the likeliest of those governors to win re-election. Although the republicans here have a weak majority in the Senate. In order from most likely to least likely.

1. Oregon
2. Pennsylvania
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin

Michigan has a really easy ballot initiative process, I'd move that to number 2.   


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on December 23, 2013, 03:43:09 pm
earliest -- Oregon. Nothing in the way.

Republicans have right-wing governors and dominant state legislatures in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  The question is either

(1) when those go down, or
(2) if the Republicans (I think rashly) offer a 'gay-marriage' initiative to get right-wing voters out to vote. Such would backfire in any of the three states.

Virginia probably recognizes SSM before Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Florida, Indiana, and Ohio are really in the category with Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.   


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: LeBron FitzGerald on December 24, 2013, 06:00:32 am
We went for Obama and Sherrod Brown, one of the most liberal, pro-marriage equality Senators, twice, yet a majority of Ohioans can't even their social justice changes in tact? Come on Ohio! It could be interesting to see what Kasich's approval will be going into November to see which way this amendment could go. I just wouldn't see the state voting for this amendment while re-electing Kasich or voting against the amendment while voting in FitzGerald. It will be both or neither.

I personally will be voting for the amendment, but I won't necessarily be thrilled about it. I can't emphasize enough how there needs to be a separation of church and state when it comes to marriage, yet here Kilroy comes giving churches the power to decide whether they marry same-sex couples in the state or not. She obviously did it in the best interest of having a better chance of passing, but it's still freedom restricting and gives into the Repubs. in the state.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on December 24, 2013, 01:20:46 pm
Eventually SSM will be seen as good for business. It is telling that in neighboring Indiana both Eli Lilly (the huge pharmaceutical company) and Cummins Diesel (diesel engine manufacturer)  both endorse a marriage-equity bill.

Right-wing Republicans still have the Religious Right to pay off for votes that aided the consolidation of right-wing legislatures, which explains why SSM is not going to pass in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Deus Naturae on December 24, 2013, 01:38:58 pm
We went for Obama and Sherrod Brown, one of the most liberal, pro-marriage equality Senators, twice, yet a majority of Ohioans can't even their social justice changes in tact? Come on Ohio! It could be interesting to see what Kasich's approval will be going into November to see which way this amendment could go. I just wouldn't see the state voting for this amendment while re-electing Kasich or voting against the amendment while voting in FitzGerald. It will be both or neither.

I personally will be voting for the amendment, but I won't necessarily be thrilled about it. I can't emphasize enough how there needs to be a separation of church and state when it comes to marriage, yet here Kilroy comes giving churches the power to decide whether they marry same-sex couples in the state or not. She obviously did it in the best interest of having a better chance of passing, but it's still freedom restricting and gives into the Repubs. in the state.

I don't really see how it's freedom restricting. Churches should have freedom of association and all that. I mean, is there any state where churches are required to perform same-sex marriages?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on December 24, 2013, 01:49:47 pm
We went for Obama and Sherrod Brown, one of the most liberal, pro-marriage equality Senators, twice, yet a majority of Ohioans can't even their social justice changes in tact? Come on Ohio! It could be interesting to see what Kasich's approval will be going into November to see which way this amendment could go. I just wouldn't see the state voting for this amendment while re-electing Kasich or voting against the amendment while voting in FitzGerald. It will be both or neither.

I personally will be voting for the amendment, but I won't necessarily be thrilled about it. I can't emphasize enough how there needs to be a separation of church and state when it comes to marriage, yet here Kilroy comes giving churches the power to decide whether they marry same-sex couples in the state or not. She obviously did it in the best interest of having a better chance of passing, but it's still freedom restricting and gives into the Repubs. in the state.

I don't really see how it's freedom restricting. Churches should have freedom of association and all that. I mean, is there any state where churches are required to perform same-sex marriages?

I know of a preacher who refuses to marry any couple who has been cohabitating within a year. There are surely churches in which the preacher invariably refuses to solemnize an interracial marriage.

County judges or justices-of-the-peace may be obliged... but that is part of the job. 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on December 24, 2013, 03:01:18 pm
Ohio (PPP):

Do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to get married?

Strongly support.............................................. 28%
Somewhat support.......................................... 19% =====> 47%

Somewhat oppose .......................................... 12%
Strongly oppose.............................................. 36% =====> 48%

Q6 Thinking again about the November 2014 election, a proposal to amend the Ohio Constitution may appear on the ballot. This constitutional amendment would allow two consenting adults to be married, so long as they are not nearer of kin than second cousins, are not currently married to someone, and no religious institutions will be required to perform or recognize a marriage. If the election were held today, would you vote in favor of this amendment to the Ohio Constitution, or would you vote against it?

Strongly for ..................................................... 34%
Not so strongly for........................................... 18% =====> 52%

Strongly against .............................................. 33%
Not so strongly against ................................... 5%  =====> 38%

https://freedomohio.com/poll

So Ohians oppose SSM 48-47, but would vote to allow it 52-38?

They might not like SSM, but they would be willing to vote to legalize it. It is law and not public opinion that determines whether SSM is legal. An initiative that would legalize SSM  would legalize the marriage of two men or two women.  Plenty of behavior is lawful that many people dislike -- let us say interracial marriage. 

I'm going for support of a law trumping 'like' or 'dislike'. One can be for SSM in principle but not like the idea of one's son marrying a man or one's daughter marrying a woman.



(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=4;6;1&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSN

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on December 25, 2013, 09:33:20 pm
As a rule I do not predict the outcome of trials or court decisions because courts can act capriciously. With that caveat

Quote
With Utah's ban struck down, 28 states still have constitutional prohibitions on same-sex marriage. Another four states — Indiana, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wyoming — do not permit it through state laws.

.....

A federal judge in Michigan will hear testimony from experts in February before deciding whether to throw out the state's constitutional ban on same-sex marriage. Two federal lawsuits in Virginia, including one being led by the same legal team that challenged California's ban, are moving forward.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/25/gay-marriage-state-courts_n_4501577.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on December 26, 2013, 10:05:28 am
They might not like SSM, but they would be willing to vote to legalize it.

That hypothesis doesn't make much sense, considering the first question asks if they want same-sex marriage to be allowed, not whether they approve of same-sex marriage.

There is considerable research indicating that the "real" numbers on same-sex marriage come only after you re-assign to the "No" column people who give inconsistent answers or indicate personal discomfort/theological opposition to same-sex marriage.  And that applies to the straight-up "do you support same-sex marriage rights?" question.  The second question in this Ohio poll is about as vague and feel-good as they come.  There's absolutely no reason to believe it's more accurate than the first question, based on either wording or past history with similar poll language.

I would peg same-sex marriage for about -5 points in Ohio based on those numbers...which isn't bad at all.  The +14 number is pretty ridiculous to accept, though.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on December 26, 2013, 12:33:24 pm
They might not like SSM, but they would be willing to vote to legalize it.

That hypothesis doesn't make much sense, considering the first question asks if they want same-sex marriage to be allowed, not whether they approve of same-sex marriage.

There is considerable research indicating that the "real" numbers on same-sex marriage come only after you re-assign to the "No" column people who give inconsistent answers or indicate personal discomfort/theological opposition to same-sex marriage.  And that applies to the straight-up "do you support same-sex marriage rights?" question.  The second question in this Ohio poll is about as vague and feel-good as they come.  There's absolutely no reason to believe it's more accurate than the first question, based on either wording or past history with similar poll language.

I would peg same-sex marriage for about -5 points in Ohio based on those numbers...which isn't bad at all.  The +14 number is pretty ridiculous to accept, though.

Also as I pointed out earlier, while the press release mentions the 47-48 result first, there is nothing to indicate it was asked before the question that gave the 52-38 result. If that second question was asked first, some of the respondents likely were not thinking about SSM when they gave their answer.  Indeed, thinking about again, that really is the only way to explain such disparate numbers on the two questions.  Some people who answered that question were thinking only in terms of its effects upon opposite-sex marriage, since they were thinking that is the only true form of marriage.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on December 27, 2013, 08:25:42 am
They might not like SSM, but they would be willing to vote to legalize it.

That hypothesis doesn't make much sense, considering the first question asks if they want same-sex marriage to be allowed, not whether they approve of same-sex marriage.

There is considerable research indicating that the "real" numbers on same-sex marriage come only after you re-assign to the "No" column people who give inconsistent answers or indicate personal discomfort/theological opposition to same-sex marriage.  And that applies to the straight-up "do you support same-sex marriage rights?" question.  The second question in this Ohio poll is about as vague and feel-good as they come.  There's absolutely no reason to believe it's more accurate than the first question, based on either wording or past history with similar poll language.

I would peg same-sex marriage for about -5 points in Ohio based on those numbers...which isn't bad at all.  The +14 number is pretty ridiculous to accept, though.

Also as I pointed out earlier, while the press release mentions the 47-48 result first, there is nothing to indicate it was asked before the question that gave the 52-38 result. If that second question was asked first, some of the respondents likely were not thinking about SSM when they gave their answer.  Indeed, thinking about again, that really is the only way to explain such disparate numbers on the two questions.  Some people who answered that question were thinking only in terms of its effects upon opposite-sex marriage, since they were thinking that is the only true form of marriage.

https://freedomohio.com/docs/polling-details.pdf

Unless I systematically misunderstand how PPP reports their results, I'm quite sure this is what they did:

1. Asked Q5 ("support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to get married?")

2. Asked Q6 ("support or oppose a constitutional amendment [etc. etc.]?")

3. Of those who opposed the constitutional amendment to allow same-sex marriage, they asked Q7, which strengthens the Q6 language about religious exemptions.

It's hard for me to believe that many people didn't pick up the context clue, but even if only 1-in-4 didn't, that could make for a big difference.  Otherwise, it's possible that some people support removing the constitutional amendment, and didn't understand that it would result in same-sex marriage's immediate legality.  I think straining interpretation here is unnecessary, though: we have seen Q5 a million times, and we already know it generally overpolls, as I described above.  If Q6 is polling better than Q5, and we know Q5 overpolls, I don't see much use in thinking too hard about Q6.

It looks like, in polls that ask both legality and on a specific referendum, the "legal" margin is usually 2-5 percentage points better than the specific referendum ask, which in turn tends to be 2-5 percentage points better than the real referendum result.  If a few more polls show a "legal" average around -1, it's pretty certain that Ohio would fail a referendum by about 5-10 points (maybe more, considering some voters are probably more wary of amendments than referenda.)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on December 27, 2013, 08:35:34 am
Yeah, the ordering issue is certainly not a factor.  Given the wording of the proposed referendum and the results from Q7,  I suppose that some of those opposed to SSM, but who think it will be happening despite their opposition, favor the proposed referendum as a means of securing the ability of their church to not perform SSM.  That would make a certain degree of sense.  In that case Q6 isn't measuring SSM support and thus the much higher level of support in Q6 is not contradicting the statistical tie in Q5.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on January 08, 2014, 04:00:19 pm
Utah -- SSM suspended during an appeal. Back to gray. 



(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=0;6;1&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSN

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


[/quote]


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on January 08, 2014, 05:15:59 pm
Internet poll of Utah done on 2 January via Google consumer surveys:
http://www.washingtonblade.com/2014/01/08/support-marriage-equality-utah-record-high/ (http://www.washingtonblade.com/2014/01/08/support-marriage-equality-utah-record-high/)

Same sex marriage legal 41.4%
Civil unions legal but not SSM 24.2%
No civil unions or SSM 31.2%
Other response 3.2%

It is an internet poll, so it probably overstates support by a few percent.  But it is a poll and we have nothing better from Utah.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;6;5&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on January 08, 2014, 05:21:38 pm
By the way, I just noticed that our legend has been saying that green represents support for Social Security Numbers rather than Same-Sex Marriages.  Fixed.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Clarko95 on January 08, 2014, 05:23:30 pm
Shoutout to Indiana!


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on January 14, 2014, 11:20:59 am
Utahns now evenly split on gay marriage (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=185809.msg4017531;boardseen#new)

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=4;0;5&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on January 14, 2014, 09:21:28 pm
http://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisgeidner/oklahoma-ban-on-same-sex-marriages-is-unconstitutional-judge

It could be that only certain parts of the ban are unconstitutional. Don't white out Oklahoma -- yet.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: RedSLC on January 15, 2014, 11:59:48 pm
Utahns now evenly split on gay marriage (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=185809.msg4017531;boardseen#new)

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=4;0;5&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

As stated in that poll, some of the support might just be from people who oppose SSM, but don't think that the court's decision should be challenged (as the question is phrased "should SSM get marriage licenses?", not "do you support SSM?"

Still, roughly two years after the last poll, this seems promising. At this point, I honestly think that the majority of Utahns under 30 support SSM (Much like Georgia).


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on January 16, 2014, 03:02:28 pm
A new Indiana poll (http://www.wibc.com/news/story.aspx?ID=2111427) (conducted for Republicans) came out today showing a majority in favor of the anti-gay amendment, but like most polls out of Indiana it's unreliable because it completely left out Bloomington and has heavy bias caused to calling landlines (80%) over cell phones (20%).  One user in the comments section details the flaws well.

Take it as you will, but I'd keep Indiana green at this point.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on January 16, 2014, 08:11:36 pm
A new Indiana poll (http://www.wibc.com/news/story.aspx?ID=2111427) (conducted for Republicans) came out today showing a majority in favor of the anti-gay amendment, but like most polls out of Indiana it's unreliable because it completely left out Bloomington and has heavy bias caused to calling landlines (80%) over cell phones (20%).  One user in the comments section details the flaws well.

Take it as you will, but I'd keep Indiana green at this point.

Does it also miss Lafayette?

Polls intended to serve a partisan entity or a special interest aren't worth consideration except for explaining why they must be rejected.



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ElectionsGuy on January 18, 2014, 02:11:29 pm
A new Indiana poll (http://www.wibc.com/news/story.aspx?ID=2111427) (conducted for Republicans) came out today showing a majority in favor of the anti-gay amendment, but like most polls out of Indiana it's unreliable because it completely left out Bloomington and has heavy bias caused to calling landlines (80%) over cell phones (20%).  One user in the comments section details the flaws well.

Take it as you will, but I'd keep Indiana green at this point.

That would obviously favor more rural, older people, thus favoring the anti-ssm side. So yes, not accurate.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on January 19, 2014, 03:11:13 am
A new Deseret News/Dan Jones poll shows UT is still strongly against SSM:

(http://img.deseretnews.com/images/article/graphic/1285687/1285687.jpg)

(http://img.deseretnews.com/images/article/graphic/1285771/1285771.jpg)

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865594458/Poll-Majority-of-Utahns-against-same-sex-marriage-and-say-states-have-the-right-to-decide.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: IceSpear on January 19, 2014, 12:25:14 pm
That one looks a lot more believable than the other one.

But it's very interesting despite being overwhelmingly against SSM, it's a tie on whether or not they think SSM from other states should be recognized there. That could end up being a very easy way to backdoor legalize SSM nationwide. Ex: "Utah doesn't have to perform it, but must recognize". Two guys or gals go out to California, get married, come back, and then they're married in Utah as well.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: eric82oslo on January 19, 2014, 12:32:05 pm
That one looks a lot more believable than the other one.

But it's very interesting despite being overwhelmingly against SSM, it's a tie on whether or not they think SSM from other states should be recognized there. That could end up being a very easy way to backdoor legalize SSM nationwide. Ex: "Utah doesn't have to perform it, but must recognize". Two guys or gals go out to California, get married, come back, and then they're married in Utah as well.

Good point. :P Didn't think of that option before.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on January 22, 2014, 08:08:40 am
Going with the Deseret poll on whether SSM should be done in Utah. It is mainstream media. It's about even for SSM performed elsewhere.

Now for Florida (PPP):

Quote
Q18
Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?

47% Think it should be allowed
....................
44% Think it should not be
............................
9% Not sure
.................

No change in Florida.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=1;3;5&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

(Edit: Changed Utah from blue to red)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Miles on January 24, 2014, 03:28:23 am
Fox News: For/Against tied at 47% nationally. (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/01/23/fox-news-poll-voters-oppose-obamacare-blame-obama-clinton-for-benghazi/)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ZonedOut on February 03, 2014, 04:23:19 pm
Pennsylvania now supports gay marriage 56-39, so still green on the map.
(bctv.org/special_reports/government/franklin-marshall-college-poll/article_7797b1e4-8ab8-11e3-b909-001a4bcf887a.html)
Sorry I guess I can't post full links yet.

Big news is that via PPP's twitter, a plurality of Alaska voters now support gay marriage
although numbers won't be out until later in the week.



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on February 04, 2014, 07:06:16 pm
Nebraska and the Dakotas should be interesting.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Sawx, King in the North on February 05, 2014, 01:08:45 pm
Alaska supports gay marriage now, 47-46. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/02/alaska-miscellany.html)

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;9&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

(Edit: Added key, corrected color — TF)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on February 07, 2014, 06:44:25 pm
Kentucky.

Quote
In the latest Bluegrass Poll — conducted by SurveyUSA for The Courier-Journal, Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV in Louisville and WKYT-TV in Lexington — 55 percent of the 1,082 registered voters polled said gays and lesbians should not be allowed to marry.


Thirty-five percent said they favored allowing gay marriage, while 10 percent said they were not sure.

The margin of error on the poll question is plus or minus 3 percent.

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20140207/NEWS01/302070077/-1/7daysarchives/Same-sex-marriage-Bluegrass-poll-show-Kentuckians-views

The trend is clear.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;6&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on February 09, 2014, 09:08:19 am
added this one to the map:

Pennsylvania now supports gay marriage 56-39, so still green on the map.
(bctv.org/special_reports/government/franklin-marshall-college-poll/article_7797b1e4-8ab8-11e3-b909-001a4bcf887a.html)
Sorry I guess I can't post full links yet.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;6&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;5&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.9% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on February 09, 2014, 03:21:13 pm
I'm not really certain we should include the Franklin & Marshall polls.  College polls tend to be somewhat problematic and compared to PPP's polls of the state over the years, F&M has pretty consistently shown tripleplus greater support for SSM in Pennsylvania than PPP.  I suppose it feels good to go with a darker shade of green, but I wouldn't consider it accurate.  F&M has not only shown higher support than PPP but also higher than two other college pollsters, Quinnipac and Muhlenberg, that have polled the commonwealth on this issue, tho not as frequently as PPP and F&M have.  Based on past results, if PPP were to do a poll today in Pennsylvania, I'd expect the result to be a minimal plurality (of around 47-45) in favor of SSM. and not the +17 margin F&M is finding.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ZonedOut on February 09, 2014, 03:47:47 pm
If we're going to start cherry-picking polls based on our own opinions  then what's the point of this thread?  Sure, to look at the map I think that most people would say that the Georgia result is ridiculous, and personally I think that AZ should only be yellow or the very light green color.  However, a reputable poll found otherwise and so the map was changed.  If another poll finds differently then we can change it again (well somebody else can - I have no clue how to do it).   


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: IceSpear on February 09, 2014, 04:48:33 pm
PPP is not infallible.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_christie_vs_clinton-3766.html

Which of these is not like the others?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on February 09, 2014, 05:06:58 pm
If we're going to start cherry-picking polls based on our own opinions  then what's the point of this thread?   
We already cherry-pick to an extent by not including blatantly partisan polls that don't release their methodology or demographics.  F&M's results are so consistently different from what other pollsters are finding from Pennsylvania I think it is relevant to consider whether there is a problem.

Taking a look at their demographics, I see they are severely underpolling non-whites with them being only 9% of the sample, yet they make up 18% of Pennsylvania's population according to the 2010 census.  It also appears they are underpolling Protestants.  On the other hand, their sample is significantly skewed towards older respondents.  I see no reason to have confidence in F&M's polling.  However, they are also the only ones to have polled  the state since the Windsor decision, so I have no problem for waiting till a poll from another pollster comes along to bring the result to something closer to reality than F&M appears to able to do.

PPP is not infallible.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_christie_vs_clinton-3766.html

Which of these is not like the others?

My choice of using PPP for the the comparison was mainly that they are the only other group to have polled Pennsylvania on this issue fairly regularly.  Note I never said that the actual result for Pennsylvania is 47-45 only that I thought PPP would likely give that result if they polled the state today.  I never said they were infalliable, and any pollster is on occasion going to have flubs.  It's when time after time that a pollster is out of sync with others that one needs to wonder what is going on.  F&M is consistently showing greater support for SSM in Pennsylvania than any other pollster.



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on February 09, 2014, 05:42:28 pm
Taking a look at their demographics, I see they are severely underpolling non-whites with them being only 9% of the sample, yet they make up 18% of Pennsylvania's population according to the 2010 census.  It also appears they are underpolling Protestants.  On the other hand, their sample is significantly skewed towards older respondents.

18% of Pennsylvania's registered voters, voting-eligible population, voting-age population, or population?  And was this a poll of likely 2014 voters, all voters, adults, or what?  Depending on the answers to those two questions, we could easily be within the MoE here.  And even if this sub-sample misses the MoE, that's a sign that they're not weighting well, not necessarily that their sampling is bad.  It takes more than one MoE miss to justify assuming bad sampling.

(They may suck -- uni polls often do -- I'm just explaining that we need soldier evidence than just this.)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on February 09, 2014, 08:00:43 pm
18% of population.  The poll was of all respondents, with some questions restricted to registered voters.  The SSM question was asked twice in the poll, once as a general question asked of everyone and once as a question of do you want the Pennsylvania legislature to recognize SSM which was asked of registered voters.  It's fairly clear they need to do weighting, but less clear they did it.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on February 12, 2014, 01:50:29 pm
Kentucky ban on gay marriages from other states struck down (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=187485.msg4052583#msg4052583)

This ruling does not require Kentucky to perform marriages in the state.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on February 12, 2014, 05:03:21 pm
As I pointed out in that thread, its a horrible decision solely because it ignores all precedent concerning the scope of the full faith and credit clause.  There's no constitutional justification for forcing Kentucky to recognize SSMs done in other states without simultaneously forcing Kentucky to recognize SSMs done in Kentucky.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on February 13, 2014, 10:10:07 pm
2/13/14 - Virginia is for lovers.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;6&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;5&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=4;13;1&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.9% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on February 13, 2014, 10:19:10 pm
As I pointed out in that thread, its a horrible decision solely because it ignores all precedent concerning the scope of the full faith and credit clause.  There's no constitutional justification for forcing Kentucky to recognize SSMs done in other states without simultaneously forcing Kentucky to recognize SSMs done in Kentucky.

Judicial decisions are usually made on the narrowest of issues. Broad issues are matters for legislation. A state could prohibit same-sex marriage within its boundaries but recognizing lawful marriages from other states. Where states get fussy is on taxes.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on February 13, 2014, 10:34:25 pm
As I pointed out in that thread, its a horrible decision solely because it ignores all precedent concerning the scope of the full faith and credit clause.  There's no constitutional justification for forcing Kentucky to recognize SSMs done in other states without simultaneously forcing Kentucky to recognize SSMs done in Kentucky.

Judicial decisions are usually made on the narrowest of issues. Broad issues are matters for legislation. A state could prohibit same-sex marriage within its boundaries but recognizing lawful marriages from other states. Where states get fussy is on taxes.

Kentucky was already recognizing lawful marriages from other states, but it was doing so based on what was lawful in Kentucky, not what was lawful in those other states. Allowing one state to impose its laws on other states is not a good idea, no matter what the field of discourse is.  The problem is that judges are ignoring the impact beyond SSM of their rulings in an attempt to be gradualist moderate heroes rather than dismantling the bans outright all at once.  While somewhat smart politically to do it that way, it's creating bad precedents for other areas of the law.  At this point the demise of all bans on SSM in the US is inevitable within a few years at most, so I am far more worried about the lingering impact of these atrocious decisions that will continue on for decades after this issue is resolved than I am about either being gradualist or temporarily denying couples recognition of their SSM conducted elsewhere.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Miles on February 13, 2014, 10:40:48 pm
Quote
Dr. Michael Bitzer ‏@CatawbaPolitics
4th Circuit Court of Appeals covers both VA & NC; implication could be that appeal of VA decision could have effect on NC as well.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on February 13, 2014, 10:43:34 pm
2/13/14 - Virginia is for lovers.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;6&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;5&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=4;13;1&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.9% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Ahem, since the decision was stayed pending appeal, until the stay is lifted, which might be soon if there is no appeal, Virginia should have remained as it was on the map.  I understand the excitement.  It certainly is appropriate, but SSM is not yet being performed in Virgina.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on February 13, 2014, 10:46:02 pm
Does the judge set the deadline for when the decision can no longer be appealed?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on February 13, 2014, 11:07:30 pm
Does the judge set the deadline for when the decision can no longer be appealed?

The judge can certainly set a deadline for when an appeal must be filed or he will lift his stay.  I'm not certain, but I think it is up to the 4th Circuit to determine when an appeal must be filed with them in order for them to hear it regardless of whether a stay in force or not.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Smash255 on February 13, 2014, 11:13:23 pm
Does the judge set the deadline for when the decision can no longer be appealed?

The judge can certainly set a deadline for when an appeal must be filed or he will lift his stay.  I'm not certain, but I think it is up to the 4th Circuit to determine when an appeal must be filed with them in order for them to hear it regardless of whether a stay in force or not.

Can anyone other than Herring (who obviously won't) appeal?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on February 14, 2014, 12:07:11 am
Does the judge set the deadline for when the decision can no longer be appealed?

The judge can certainly set a deadline for when an appeal must be filed or he will lift his stay.  I'm not certain, but I think it is up to the 4th Circuit to determine when an appeal must be filed with them in order for them to hear it regardless of whether a stay in force or not.

Can anyone other than Herring (who obviously won't) appeal?

That depends on whether Virginia law explicitly provides for that.  If not, then the Perry case made it clear that one cannot defend a State law in Federal court without the State specifying that you can defend that law.  I note that the clerk who had refused to issue the marriage license had his own attorney there at the case presenting an argument, so I think it likely that the clerk can appeal the decision that he must issue the license even if state officials decline to help him do so.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on February 14, 2014, 11:29:03 pm
I didn't want to make a new thread about this since we have enough about gay marriage already, but Jay Nixon has came out in favor of gay marriage. (http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/1-missouri-governor-calls-for-same-sex-couples-to-be-able-to-marry/politics/2014/02/14/83205#.Uv7svRC9Hvk)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on February 15, 2014, 01:13:43 am
I'm still going on this.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;6&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

...

White may indicate that even temporarily that SSM is being permitted in the state, let alone that it is permitted as the result of legislation or some court dicision that existing laws do not prohibit SSM.

I will put Virginia in white when (1) same-sex marriage is permitted by legislation or initiative/referendum,  (2)  the state government loses its appeal of a court decision, (3) state government affirms the ruling without appeal, or (4) the state allows the 'opportunity' for an appeal to expire.

I doubt that much time will be necessary for Virginia to endorse SSM. Virginia is now more liberal than the US as a whole.   



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ZonedOut on February 16, 2014, 07:27:55 pm
Unfortunately, the thaw in Kentucky's attitudes hasn't spread to its southern neighbor, as Tennessee opposes gay marriage 26-64.  Ouch.

mtsusurveygroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/MTSU-POLL-Spring-2014-legislative-issues-roundup-F.pdf

If a governor decides to "stand in the doorway" on this issue, it's not hard to figure what part of the country that it will be in.  It's going to make all these looming lawsuits in those states even more interesting.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Miles on February 18, 2014, 11:43:24 am
SMM is at 28/62 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_LA_217.pdf) in LA. Even with Democrats, it only at 33/55.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nhoj on February 18, 2014, 03:24:20 pm
SMM is at 28/62 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_LA_217.pdf) in LA. Even with Democrats, it only at 33/55.
But with people who voted for obama its 46/44.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Miles on February 21, 2014, 03:39:34 pm
Democratic poll finds that in Oregon, voters want the SSM ban repealed (http://www.scribd.com/doc/208257293/OR-Ballot-ALG-for-Oregon-United-for-Marriage-Feb-2014) by 55-41.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on February 21, 2014, 03:41:33 pm
I'm not updating the map for any poll that was commissioned by a party or interest group, but that number is pretty low for Oregon, especially since Democrats ordered it.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Gass3268 on February 21, 2014, 09:34:25 pm
I'm not updating the map for any poll that was commissioned by a party or interest group, but that number is pretty low for Oregon, especially since Democrats ordered it.

I saw somewhere that is actually a decent increase from a poll from last year.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: greenforest32 on February 22, 2014, 05:55:34 pm
It's really just a question of method now in Oregon. The group working to put a measure on the 2014 ballot has gathered 160k signatures for the initiative as of this month (probably already enough to qualify for the ballot) and the signature deadline isn't until July but it's possible that the state's ban on same-sex marriage will be struck down by a federal judge before then like what happened in UT/OK/VA so they said they might not even want to put a legalization measure on the ballot at that point.

Of course the federal decision could be stayed and the language of the previous ban would still be in the state constitution so who knows? I doubt the initiative would fail at the ballot but I also kind of doubt it would get 55% or more. It is a mid-term electorate after all.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Wolverine22 on February 24, 2014, 12:35:48 pm
The federal trial in Detroit could bring marriage equality to Michigan as early as tomorrow. Crossing my fingers.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ZonedOut on February 24, 2014, 10:15:39 pm
I'm sure that in Michigan, like in most of the other states so far, any positive ruling will be put on hold for months.  Still, I have my fingers crossed.

As depressing as some of the polls coming out of the South have been, here's a pretty good one from a Bible Belt state:  Kansas only opposes gay marriage 44-48.   Kansas!!  Also, gay marriage is more popular in KS than legal marijuana which Kansans oppose 42-52.  Not to hijack the thread, but I think it would be interesting to compare support for marriage equality vs support for marijuana legalization...

publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/02/kansas-miscellany.html

sigh... my kingdom to be able to post links.



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on February 25, 2014, 04:55:24 pm
Kansas is evolving toward acceptance of same-sex marriage... and anti-gay discrimination is unpopular. The State legislature apparently went way too far.

February 18-20, 2014
Survey of 693 Kansas voters



3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Quote
Kansas Survey Results
 
Q2
Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Kansas, or not?
44%
Think it should be
............................................
48%
Think it should not be
......................................
8%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q3
Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple's relationship?
40%
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry
..............................................................
26%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry
.......................................
32%
There should be no recognition of a gay
couple's relationship
.......................................
3%
Not sure
..........................................................


(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;5&KY=1;8;6&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;2&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

...

White may indicate that even temporarily that SSM is being permitted in the state, let alone that it is permitted as the result of legislation or some court dicision that existing laws do not prohibit SSM.




Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on February 27, 2014, 04:05:43 pm
I think the ruling says that Kentucky (like Oregon) recognizes same-sex marriages from other jursidictions, not that same-sex marriage is legal there.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on February 27, 2014, 04:08:24 pm
I think the ruling says that Kentucky (like Oregon) recognizes same-sex marriages from other jursidictions, not that same-sex marriage is legal there.

Not according to this. (https://twitter.com/HuffPostPol/status/439077645335396352)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Alcon on February 27, 2014, 04:11:33 pm
I think the ruling says that Kentucky (like Oregon) recognizes same-sex marriages from other jursidictions, not that same-sex marriage is legal there.

Not according to this. (https://twitter.com/HuffPostPol/status/439077645335396352)

I don't know why you interpret "legally recognized" to mean "issues same-sex marriages" instead of "recognizes out-of-state same-sex marriages."  If anything, "legally recognized" sounds more like the latter to me.  Plus, every source I've seen indicates this recognizes pre-existing marriages only.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on February 27, 2014, 04:19:42 pm
I think the ruling says that Kentucky (like Oregon) recognizes same-sex marriages from other jursidictions, not that same-sex marriage is legal there.

Not according to this. (https://twitter.com/HuffPostPol/status/439077645335396352)

I don't know why you interpret "legally recognized" to mean "issues same-sex marriages" instead of "recognizes out-of-state same-sex marriages."  If anything, "legally recognized" sounds more like the latter to me.  Plus, every source I've seen indicates this recognizes pre-existing marriages only.

Yes, the decision requires KY to recognise marriages performed outside of the state. Not that KY has to perform marriages.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on February 27, 2014, 05:49:21 pm
I thought that was done last week.  In any case, I take it back.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: IceSpear on March 03, 2014, 12:06:01 pm
The F&M poll now has corroboration.

 PA supports gay marriage 57-37 (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2014)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on March 03, 2014, 01:01:24 pm
Updating map for Pennsylvania:
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;5&KY=1;8;6&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;5&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Beef on March 03, 2014, 01:14:44 pm
Updating map for Pennsylvania:
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;5&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;5&KY=1;8;6&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;5&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

Bible Belt Indiana FTW!  This is why the delay in HJR-3 was such a huge win for equality here.  If/when this ever does go to a referen-dumb vote (2016?), public opinion will be so strongly against the ban amendment it will have no chance of passing.

I can't believe Indiana of all places now supports gay marriage... or at least not banning it.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on March 03, 2014, 04:26:45 pm
The Dakotas and Nebraska should be very interesting. So should Missouri.

Except for North Carolina, every state that has ever voted for Barack Obama seems to be for the legalization of SSM.

SSM will be good for business, won't change fiscal or monetary policies, and won't give any aid to labor unions. It's going to succeed nationwide. Rationality will win.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on March 03, 2014, 04:45:08 pm
Rationality will win.

Quite the optimist, aren't you?  Or were you referring to just this issue?  On this issue you are likely right, but often it is the case that it is irrational to bet on rationality winning.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on March 04, 2014, 12:30:16 am
Rationality will win.

Quite the optimist, aren't you?  Or were you referring to just this issue?  On this issue you are likely right, but often it is the case that it is irrational to bet on rationality winning.

Only on this issue.

Very rarely do we see Big Business taking the liberal side, but this time it does.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on March 04, 2014, 03:37:40 pm

Updating map for Arizona: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/arizona-supports-brewer-veto-gay-marriage.html (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/arizona-supports-brewer-veto-gay-marriage.html)

Only 49-41 compared to 55-35 in the poll this replaces, but I have a higher opinion of PPP than the Rocky Mountain Poll. so I wouldn't read into this any drop in the actual level of support.  While this result is more like what one might expect from a Republican leaning state than the previous poll, it's quite possible this is lowballing the actual support and/or the RMP highballed it.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;2&AR=0;6;9&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;5&KY=1;8;6&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;5&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nice Guy FF on March 05, 2014, 11:02:04 pm
Why isn't Kentucky white?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Smash255 on March 05, 2014, 11:28:39 pm
Why isn't Kentucky white?

The ruling in Kentucky required the state to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states, however it did not legalize same-sex marriage in the state.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Miles on March 06, 2014, 02:33:48 am
Washington Post: (http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/199973-poll-50-percent-say-gay-marriage-is-constitutional-right) 59/34 support nationally.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on March 06, 2014, 07:05:59 am
Homophobia -- a lost cause.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on March 06, 2014, 09:26:33 am
Homophobia -- a lost cause.

We can only hope, since the Lost Cause mythology that developed after the Civil War was "We fought for what we thought were good reasons at the time, but in the end it was a good thing we lost."  Let's just hope we don't have a reversal of fortunes in about thirty years that see the advances the LGBT community has made being rolled back.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Wolverine22 on March 08, 2014, 07:20:06 pm
North Carolina may actually have a majority support for gay marriage. The reason Amendment 1 passed in such a landslide was because the Republicans in the Legislature scheduled the election for the same day as the GOP Presidential Primary, guaranteeing that it would pass with a big majority. So Amendment 1 was a referendum among Republicans on their opinion on gay marriage, and not a real statewide vote.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Holmes on March 09, 2014, 11:35:33 am
North Carolina may actually have a majority support for gay marriage. The reason Amendment 1 passed in such a landslide was because the Republicans in the Legislature scheduled the election for the same day as the GOP Presidential Primary, guaranteeing that it would pass with a big majority. So Amendment 1 was a referendum among Republicans on their opinion on gay marriage, and not a real statewide vote.

Okay, but this is North Carolina you're talking about, so...


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: TDAS04 on March 09, 2014, 01:37:45 pm
North Carolina may actually have a majority support for gay marriage. The reason Amendment 1 passed in such a landslide was because the Republicans in the Legislature scheduled the election for the same day as the GOP Presidential Primary, guaranteeing that it would pass with a big majority. So Amendment 1 was a referendum among Republicans on their opinion on gay marriage, and not a real statewide vote.

Unlikely.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on March 09, 2014, 03:29:57 pm
Yeah.  I think at most, it might be that if being introduced de novo, an amendment to clutter up the state constitution with a ban on same-sex marriage wouldn't pass at a North Carolina general election in a presidential election.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Sol on March 09, 2014, 09:55:32 pm
NC probably has majority support if that's the case in GA, IMO. Not that I think Gay marriage would pass in either, even with 100% turnout.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Miles on March 14, 2014, 11:24:09 am
Rassy: (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/march_2014/43_favor_gay_marriage_43_oppose) 43% tie nationally.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: JerryArkansas on March 14, 2014, 09:17:06 pm
I have a poll for Arkansas.  You may not take it since it is over a year old and it comes from the Human Rights Campaign, but it shows support for Gay Marriage at 38% to 55% who oppose it.

http://s1.daumcdn.net/editor/fp/service_nc/pencil/Pencil_chromestore.html (http://s1.daumcdn.net/editor/fp/service_nc/pencil/Pencil_chromestore.html)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on March 15, 2014, 01:26:55 pm
I have a poll for Arkansas.  You may not take it since it is over a year old and it comes from the Human Rights Campaign, but it shows support for Gay Marriage at 38% to 55% who oppose it.

http://s1.daumcdn.net/editor/fp/service_nc/pencil/Pencil_chromestore.html (http://s1.daumcdn.net/editor/fp/service_nc/pencil/Pencil_chromestore.html)


With the caveat that it is a very old poll for Arkansas, it could be relevant to a subsequent change. I expect more polls of Arkansas in view of hot 2014 races.  

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;2&AR=1;6;6&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;5&KY=1;8;6&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;5&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ZonedOut on March 19, 2014, 02:14:10 pm
Colorado now supports marriage equality 56-36.  Interesting that legal marijuana only polls one point better, despite having been legalized in 2012.

publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/colorado-happy-with-marijuana-legalization-supports-gay-marriage.html

edit:  They REALLY should have considered taking it to the ballot this year.  It actually might have helped in the Senate/Gov races there.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on March 21, 2014, 06:06:31 pm
Quote
DETROIT (AP) — Michigan's ban on gay marriage is unconstitutional, a federal judge said Friday, striking down a law that was widely embraced by voters a decade ago in the latest in a series of similar decisions across the country.

But unlike cases in other states, U.S. District Judge Bernard Friedman did not suspend his decision while the Michigan attorney general pursues an appeal. That means clerks could start issuing licenses Monday unless a higher court intervenes.

Friedman released his 31-page ruling exactly two weeks after a rare trial that mostly focused on the impact of same-sex parenting on children. The challenge was brought by two Detroit-area nurses originally seeking to overturn Michigan's ban on joint adoptions by gay couples.

The judge noted that supporters of same-sex marriage believe the Michigan ban was at least partly the result of animosity toward gays and lesbians.

"Many Michigan residents have religious convictions whose principles govern the conduct of their daily lives and inform their own viewpoints about marriage," Friedman said. "Nonetheless, these views cannot strip other citizens of the guarantees of equal protection under the law."

Seventeen states and the District of Columbia issue licenses for same-sex marriage. Since December, bans on gay marriage have been overturned in Texas, Utah, Oklahoma and Virginia, but appeals have put those cases on hold.

Attorney General Bill Schuette, a Republican, asked a federal appeals court to freeze Friedman's decision and prevent same-sex couples from marrying while he appeals the case.

http://news.yahoo.com/judge-strikes-down-michigans-ban-gay-marriage-210904633.html

This one will likely stick.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on March 21, 2014, 09:07:53 pm
Agreed, but I expect that an appeals court will likely issue a stay.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on March 21, 2014, 11:58:11 pm
I wouldn't include the Arkansas poll on my map.  Recently, I've decided to discount any poll conducted for or by any party or organization.  My best guess is that at least 60% of Arkansans oppose SSM, at this point.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Smash255 on March 23, 2014, 02:29:20 pm
Since we currently have a bunch of states where the ban was overturned, but a stay was issued for appeal, should we have another shading for that?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Blue3 on March 23, 2014, 02:41:08 pm
Since we currently have a bunch of states where the ban was overturned, but a stay was issued for appeal, should we have another shading for that?
The Wikipedia version is good:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States#State_laws

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Samesex_marriage_in_USA.svg)





And more specifically... if we assume that every state that has legalized SSM then halted it due pending decision does eventually get it completely legalized... here are the states color-coded to show which ones do and do not have SSM:

(http://i.imgur.com/KVr01dU.jpg)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: JerryArkansas on March 23, 2014, 03:08:48 pm
Since we currently have a bunch of states where the ban was overturned, but a stay was issued for appeal, should we have another shading for that?
Maybe we could color states that approve of Gay marriage and have there gay marriage bans going through the courts could be blue, as in Michigan and Va.  States like Texas, Ky, and Ok could be colored using Yellow.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: old timey villain on March 23, 2014, 03:29:11 pm
Since we currently have a bunch of states where the ban was overturned, but a stay was issued for appeal, should we have another shading for that?
The Wikipedia version is good:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States#State_laws

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Samesex_marriage_in_USA.svg)

Such a busy map. I'd like think this will all be blue in 5 years. At this point it would take a legal expert to understand all the confusing gay marriage laws in every state.





And more specifically... if we assume that every state that has legalized SSM then halted it due pending decision does eventually get it completely legalized... here are the states color-coded to show which ones do and do not have SSM:

(http://i.imgur.com/KVr01dU.jpg)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: JerryArkansas on March 23, 2014, 03:35:42 pm
Here is what the map would look like with my proposal.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;2&AR=1;6;6&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;5&KY=4;8;6&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=2;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;5&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=4;38;6&UT=4;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=2;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;3&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on March 23, 2014, 03:39:21 pm
Only on Atlas could someone see a nine-color U.S. map and an eleven-color U.S. map and then suggest, "hey guys, I have an idea: let's add more colors."

I await the day when we reach peak Atlas: a U.S. map with a 51-color key.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on March 23, 2014, 08:25:56 pm
Only on Atlas could someone see a nine-color U.S. map and an eleven-color U.S. map and then suggest, "hey guys, I have an idea: let's add more colors."

I await the day when we reach peak Atlas: a U.S. map with a 51-color key.

Peak Atlas would be a 57-color key with one for each ME/NE CD and for Puerto Rico.  (Originally, you could get the Atlas map generator to include Puerto Rico by manually setting the year to 2008 in the URL, but when Dave revised the generator to support the 2008 EV Calculator, the option for manually adding in PR was dropped.)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on March 23, 2014, 11:05:58 pm
The only basic colors that we lack are black and violet/purple/lavender.

Accepting that 10% saturation for anything but "0" gets white, the five current colors get 40 different shades altogether. Purple would add eight more. Black would add seven more (because we already have a medium gray for selecting "0".

   


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: IceSpear on March 24, 2014, 10:45:29 am
To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on March 24, 2014, 10:51:05 am
To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?

I'm pretty sure that all the states that have SSM have majority support, save for possibly Iowa and New Mexico.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: IceSpear on March 24, 2014, 10:56:54 am
To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?

I'm pretty sure that all the states that have SSM have majority support, save for possibly Iowa and New Mexico.

Yeah, but the margin is the interesting part. If we're going to remove the shade from any state that already has gay marriage, won't it just become a carbon copy of Wikipedia's map eventually?


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on March 24, 2014, 12:38:10 pm
To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?

I'm pretty sure that all the states that have SSM have majority support, save for possibly Iowa and New Mexico.

Yeah, but the margin is the interesting part. If we're going to remove the shade from any state that already has gay marriage, won't it just become a carbon copy of Wikipedia's map eventually?

Eventually, it'll become this map:(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=1;;1&AK=1;;1&AZ=1;;1&AR=1;;1&CA=1;;1&CO=1;;1&CT=4;;1&DE=4;;1&DC=4;;1&FL=3;;1&GA=3;;1&HI=4;;1&ID=1;;1&IL=4;;1&IN=3;;1&IA=4;;1&KS=1;;1&KY=4;;1&LA=1;;1&MD=4;;1&MA=4;;1&MI=2;16;1&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;1&MO=1;;1&MT=3;0;1&NV=3;6;1&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;1&ND=1;;1&OH=1;;1&OK=1;;1&OR=1;;1&PA=1;;1&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;;1&SD=1;;1&TN=1;;1&TX=1;;1&UT=1;;1&VT=4;3;1&VA=1;;1&WA=1;;1&WV=1;;1&WI=1;;1&WY=1;;1&ME=1;;1&NE=1;;1)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: IceSpear on March 24, 2014, 01:50:03 pm
Yes, but the thread title is "polls on same-sex marriage laws", not "legality of same sex marriage".


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on March 24, 2014, 03:35:25 pm
To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?

I'm pretty sure that all the states that have SSM have majority support, save for possibly Iowa and New Mexico.

Yeah, but the margin is the interesting part. If we're going to remove the shade from any state that already has gay marriage, won't it just become a carbon copy of Wikipedia's map eventually?

It's margins where same-sex marriage is not legal, with the qualification that once same-sex marriage is legal as the result of legislation or a legal ruling that sticks (appeals failed or denied) is treated as permanent.

We could have a color for legal limbo, but there are always questions of whether (1) appeals will be denied or upheld, and (2) the interpretation of a legal finding. Legalization of SSM under limited conditions (valid for marriages contracted out of state only, military only, Indian reservations only, permitted in a limited number of counties) probably does not qualify as full legalization.

In view of the nature of rulings, the narrowest interpretation is almost always the right one.



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Nutmeg on March 24, 2014, 10:51:23 pm
Yes, but the thread title is "polls on same-sex marriage laws", not "legality of same sex marriage".

I agree. Even if something is legal, it's still interesting (even if perhaps relevant) to note public opinion regarding that thing.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Scott on March 25, 2014, 08:06:18 pm
Perhaps we could compromise and make two maps? :P


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on March 25, 2014, 08:28:37 pm
Perhaps we could compromise and make two maps? :P

If someone wants to go to the bother of adding in the polls from all the states where it is recognized and assigning shades of blue and yellow to the margins, I don't mind.  I just don't care to do the work that would involve.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on March 26, 2014, 06:44:07 am
To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?

We may yet have the issue resolved in a USSC ruling analogous to Loving v. Virginia.

There is still much disapproval of interracial marriage, but there is some finality to court rulings.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on March 26, 2014, 02:55:32 pm
SCOTUS already did a partial gay Loving v. Virgina with Lawrence v. TexasLoving wasn't about merely whether the government had to accord interracial marriages the same rights and benefits as monoracial marriages, but also whether they were legal at all, regardless of whether the government treated them the same.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on March 26, 2014, 04:39:11 pm
Wisconsin, Marquette Law School.

If Wis voted today on continuing its constitutional ban on same sex marriage, 36% would keep ban, 59% would repeal.

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll

"How would people vote?" looks like a good proxy for approval. Should there be an initiative/referendum on the issue in Wisconsin in November, SSM wins -- big. 

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;2&AR=1;6;6&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;5&KY=1;8;6&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;5&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)



Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on March 27, 2014, 07:16:28 pm
The case seems settled in New Mexico:

Quote
New Mexico voters are still pretty closely divided on the issue of gay marriage- 47% support it and 45% are opposed. But when it comes to the impact that its being legal for the last few months has had in the state there's a pretty strong consensus it hasn't been a big deal. Only 24% think it's had a negative impact on their lives with 76% saying either that it's had no impact at all (58%) or a positive effect (18%). There's no debate among voters in the state anymore when it comes to legal rights for same sex couples- 74%, including 64% of Republicans, support at least civil unions with only 24% opposed to any sort of legal recognition.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/new-mexico-miscellany.html

A referendum against SSM would probably fail in New Mexico.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;2&AR=1;6;6&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;5&KY=1;8;6&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;5&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


[/quote]


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on March 28, 2014, 01:43:42 pm
Feds OK Gay Marriages in Mich.

Quote
In response to Republican Governor Rick Snyder saying Michigan won't recognize same-sex weddings that took place following a court order striking down the state's marriage law, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said Friday the federal government will step in. “I have determined that the same-sex marriages performed last Saturday in Michigan will be recognized by the federal government.  These families will be eligible for all relevant federal benefits on the same terms as other same-sex marriages," he said in a statement. He also noted that while Snyder himself has recognized that the marriages are legal, the rights and benefits from the state are pending legal proceedings. Holder was unequivocal in his statement, declaring that "Last June’s decision by the Supreme Court in United States v. Windsor was a victory for equal protection under the law and a historic step toward equality for all American families … we will remain steadfast in our commitment to realizing our country’s founding ideals of equality, opportunity, and justice for all.”
Read it at Department of Justice

March 28, 2014 11:34 AM

Governor Rick Snyder says that it's a marriage but it isn't really a marriage. There has never been a precedent for 'first-class marriages' and 'second-class marriages'. The Justice Department says that he is wrong.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2014/03/28/feds-ok-gay-marriages-in-mich.html#comments

I interpret this to mean that same-sex marriages made in the shortly-open window of opportunity are valid and equal even if subsequent SSM in Michigan is not authorized by legislation or a ruling of a court. I take the narrowest possible interpretation in case law. 


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: True Federalist on March 28, 2014, 05:11:16 pm
Feds OK Gay Marriages in Mich.

Quote
In response to Republican Governor Rick Snyder saying Michigan won't recognize same-sex weddings that took place following a court order striking down the state's marriage law, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said Friday the federal government will step in. “I have determined that the same-sex marriages performed last Saturday in Michigan will be recognized by the federal government.  These families will be eligible for all relevant federal benefits on the same terms as other same-sex marriages," he said in a statement. He also noted that while Snyder himself has recognized that the marriages are legal, the rights and benefits from the state are pending legal proceedings. Holder was unequivocal in his statement, declaring that "Last June’s decision by the Supreme Court in United States v. Windsor was a victory for equal protection under the law and a historic step toward equality for all American families … we will remain steadfast in our commitment to realizing our country’s founding ideals of equality, opportunity, and justice for all.”
Read it at Department of Justice

March 28, 2014 11:34 AM

Governor Rick Snyder says that it's a marriage but it isn't really a marriage. There has never been a precedent for 'first-class marriages' and 'second-class marriages'. The Justice Department says that he is wrong.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2014/03/28/feds-ok-gay-marriages-in-mich.html#comments

I interpret this to mean that same-sex marriages made in the shortly-open window of opportunity are valid and equal even if subsequent SSM in Michigan is not authorized by legislation or a ruling of a court. I take the narrowest possible interpretation in case law. 


Since US v. Windsor said that the Federal government can't apply a different standard than the States, doesn't that mean that if Michigan doesn't consider them to be currently married, then the US cannot do so either (unless they also get married in a jurisdiction that would recognize the marriage).  Kennedy was bound and determined to produce a moderate hero ruling that recognized the marriage in the case before the court while avoiding having SSM be recognized nationwide all at once, despite the damage his decision did to our federal system of cosovereignty.  Yet Holder is quite happy to ignore what Windsor had to say on State supremacy in deciding who is and isn't married when it suits him. (Yes, I realize that ultimately Holder's position is correct, but not if one follows Windsor in the convoluted way Kennedy handed down his moderate hero decision.)


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on April 10, 2014, 08:15:37 pm
-In 2012 North Carolinians voted by a 22 point margin to ban gay marriage in the state. Now less than 2 years later voters say they oppose gay marriage by only 13 points, mirroring the kind of movement we've seen on the issue across the country. 40% say they think it should be legal to 53% who continue to think it should be illegal. Showing the direction things are headed in on the issue, 62% of young voters support it to only 33% who believe it should be illegal.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

Category change.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;2&AR=1;6;6&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;5&KY=1;8;6&LA=1;8;9&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;5&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;5&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)




Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ZonedOut on April 10, 2014, 11:36:24 pm
Louisiana: 42-53 opposed.  (The link has conflicting numbers on the opposition, I had to dig into the poll pdf itself to find the actual opposition number).

nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/04/gay_civil_unions_medical_marij.html


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on April 12, 2014, 02:12:57 pm
Louisiana: 42-53 opposed.  (The link has conflicting numbers on the opposition, I had to dig into the poll pdf itself to find the actual opposition number).

nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/04/gay_civil_unions_medical_marij.html

Category change.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=3;3;2&AZ=3;11;2&AR=1;6;6&CA=4;55;1&CO=3;0;3&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=4;3;1&FL=3;29;2&GA=3;0;2&HI=4;0;1&ID=0;4;7&IL=4;7;1&IN=3;0;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=1;6;5&KY=1;8;6&LA=1;8;5&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=3;16;5&MN=4;10;1&MS=1;6;9&MO=0;10;6&MT=3;0;2&NV=3;6;3&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=1;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;5&ND=0;3;7&OH=3;18;3&OK=0;7;7&OR=3;7;3&PA=3;20;5&RI=4;4;1&SC=1;9;6&SD=0;3;2&TN=1;11;9&TX=1;38;6&UT=1;0;6&VT=4;3;1&VA=3;13;5&WA=4;12;1&WV=1;5;9&WI=3;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=4;4;1&NE=0;5;7)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)





Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: ZonedOut on April 17, 2014, 03:25:41 pm
I don't know if this poll would fit the criteria for being included here, as it was conducted by the Political Science Dept of Texas Tech and not a major polling firm, but anyways...

Texas:  48-47 SUPPORT gay marriage

lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2014-04-17/tech-student-survey-shows-texans-torn-gay-marriage-not-governor


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 17, 2014, 03:27:20 pm
I don't know if this poll would fit the criteria for being included here, as it was conducted by the Political Science Dept of Texas Tech and not a major polling firm, but anyways...

Texas:  48-47 SUPPORT gay marriage

lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2014-04-17/tech-student-survey-shows-texans-torn-gay-marriage-not-governor
A junky poll, but I think it really shows the tides are turning when more support gay marriage in a poll that also has Abbott leading Davis 54-25(!?!).


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on April 23, 2014, 08:11:48 am
I don't know if this poll would fit the criteria for being included here, as it was conducted by the Political Science Dept of Texas Tech and not a major polling firm, but anyways...

Texas:  48-47 SUPPORT gay marriage

lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2014-04-17/tech-student-survey-shows-texans-torn-gay-marriage-not-governor
A junky poll, but I think it really shows the tides are turning when more support gay marriage in a poll that also has Abbott leading Davis 54-25(!?!).

I agree... the poll is crap all over.


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2014, 09:03:58 am
NYT/Kaiser polls:

Do you think it should be legal or not legal for same sex couples to marry?

AR: 35-57
KY: 38-54
LA: 36-56
NC: 44-49

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf


Title: Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
Post by: pbrower2a on April 23, 2014, 10:48:28 am
NYT/Kaiser polls:

Do you think it should be legal or not legal for same sex couples to marry?

AR: 35-57
KY: 38-54
LA: 36-56
NC: 44-49

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf


I don't know if this poll would fit the criteria for being included here, as it was conducted by the Political Science Dept of Texas Tech and not a major polling firm, but anyways...

Texas:  48-47 SUPPORT gay marriage

lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2014-04-17/tech-student-survey-shows-texans-torn-gay-marriage-not-governor
A j