Talk Elections

August 13th, 2011:


For months now, Ron Paul has been mostly written off by the national media, despite consistently polling in the top three nationwide. While may have some of the loudest supporters, many didn't think that support would translate into real victories. Today, Paul proved the pundits wrong, narrowly edging out the heavy favorite, Michele Bachmann, in the Ames Straw Poll.

Results:
Paul: 30%
Bachmann: 29%
Pawlenty: 14%
Santorum: 10%
Cain: 7%
Romney: 4%
Perry: 3%
Gingrich: 2%
McCotter: 0%
Huntsman: 0%

Also today, Texas Governor Rick Perry officially launched his campaign in South Carolina.

This is going to be an amazing timeline, I already can tell.

Currently speaking, this will (hopefully) not be just a 2012 election timeline - I'd like to expand. :)

August 14th, 2011:



Today, Former Minnesota Governor Timothy Pawlenty withdrew from the Presidential race after a disappointing third place finish in the Ames Straw Poll. The former Governor has taken quite a stumble in recent months - polling in late 2011 showed Pawlenty with a realistic shot of winning the nomination, but the campaign went downhill from the start. Pawlenty will not make a Presidential endorsement for the time being.

Also today, Congressman Thaddeus McCotter abandoned his bid for the White House, announcing he will run for reelection in Michigan's 11th Congressional District.

Gallup Poll:
Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Barack Obama is doing?
Approve - 39%
Disapprove - 53%

Will you finish this one? (whatever finish means when it comes to this tl)

I think I've finished just about every timeline I've started - when it'll actually end is tbd.

I'm upset that Buddy Roemer was not included.

This will be epic!!!!!!!!!!!! :D

Huh. Presumably this is going on in an alternate world in which Paul received the same number of votes from Bachmann that he lost by.

This looks interesting, so I will keep watching

August 23th, 2011:




Today, Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson dropped out of the Presidential race.

I would have liked for this campaign to go better, but unfortunately, we were never able to really get off the ground and effectively spread our message throughout America. It is with great sadness that I am announcing that I will be ending my campaign for President of the United States. However, my fellow freedom fighters, the race is not over. We still have a candidate in this race who values freedom and liberty, someone who will take those values with him to Pennsylvania Avenue. That man is Ron Paul. It is imperative to our movement that we throw our support behind Congressman Ron Paul and help get him elected as the next President of the United States!

Now, once Dr. Paul becomes President, he's going to need allies in Congress, people who understand the need for small government and social freedom. That's why, it is with great honor I announce that I will be a candidate for the New Mexico Senate Seat in the upcoming 2012 race, running under the Republican ticket.
- Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson

Today, speculation on a possible Giuliani candidacy increased when the former New York City mayor made the following statement:
I've reached my decision. I'll be announcing that decision on "Meet the Press" on September 4th.
- Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani

Polling:
Gallup released it's national primary polling today. The results show Romney still narrowly leading the pack, closely followed by Perry with Paul in a distant third. (Note: Palin and Giuliani were not included in this poll)

24% Romney
22% Perry
13% Paul
10% Bachmann
  9% Gingrich
  6% Cain
  4% Santorum
  2% Huntsman
  5% Others
  5% None
  4% Undecided

Yes! Johnson runs for Senate! That should be a good way to revive his political career for 2016 or 2020. Assuming Paul doesn't run for re-election, I think a Gary Johnson/Ran Paul ticket would be pretty cool to continue the Paul legacy.

Who says Paul is going to win the GE Election, let alone the primaries? ;)

Speaking to the Senate interns, Gary Johnson said he would never run for Congress because it doesn't fit his personality. He was pretty adamant. Still, good timeline, even if it is a Libertarian wank.

If Paul gets the nomination in this timeline, it would be interesting to see how different the electoral map gets. He would definitely run stronger in many liberal areas.

Any updates soon?

I just started school this week, and worked tonight. I also work tomorrow and Sunday. I'll try and squeeze an update in tomorrow evening. If not then, I'll have one at the first of the week.

How easy has the first day(s) been

I just started 9th grade on Wed..God its seriously jumping out of the pan into the fire! So, I understand Tmfthu :)

Not too bad. I'm actually a pretty smart student, though I have a huge weakness in Math. After years of being in the advanced math class, I'm finally in the "less advanced" class, and it's working out MUCH better for me. :) It's been exciting. Not too difficult classes.

Good luck, Sanchez! My school is 7-12, so the first day as a Freshman wasn't a huge deal. ;)

Wait, you guys are already back in school?

September 7th! :P

Going back in a couple days on the 25th. :P

Sucks for you guys. I think Maine has a law that public schools can't start until after Labor Day.

The actual day for Portland Schools go back is Sep. 6, but the upperclassmen in high school get the first day off.

I'll be graduating May 27th though, earlier than many other Seniors! :)

Yeah, seniors here get practically the entire month of June off, but I don't think that they graduate THAT early.

I still have to wait another year to graduate.

September 3rd, 2011:

Sarah Palin holds a rally in Iowa, where she announces her decision:

I will not be a candidate for President of the United States. I've been honored and thankful for the amount of support and encouragement I've received from Americans of many walks of life over the past few months. However, this was a family decision, and as a whole, we say "No" to 2012. However, I will continue my fight for liberty in the coming months and do my part to make sure the Republican Party elects a true conservative in 2012!


Polling:
Rasmussen - National

Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Sarah Palin?
Favorable - 38%
Unfavorable - 55%
Neutral - 7%

On September 4th, Rudy Giuliani, who had floated the possibility or running for President multiple times, makes headlines when he declares on Meet the Press that he will be a candidate for President. However, things got even crazier in New York when just two days later, former New York Governor George Pataki also declared that he'd be seeking the Republican nomination.


With both New Yorkers running, the GOP field becomes further split. In a race that originally had just two moderates, it now turned to four with Romney, Huntsman, Giuliani, and Pataki.

Polling:
Gallup - National Republican Primary
19% Perry
17% Romney
11% Paul
10% Giuliani
 9% Bachmann
 8% Gingrich
 6% Cain
 5% Pataki
 4% Santorum
 2% Huntsman
 5% Others
 4% Undecided

Pataki leads Huntsman at least!

Texas Governor Rick Perry is currently under fire after making what many are saying a racist comment on September 9th at an event in Iowa, making statements he apparently thought were off the record. The comments were made by the Governor as he was exiting the venue.

Last month, we saw the President vacationing in the midst of an economic crisis. This week, we see the President having more golf outings...while we're still in an economic crisis. We talked a bit tonight about welfare reform...well, President Obama has proved exactly what's wrong with many of his people that are getting our tax dollars.
- Rick Perry


Perry is immediately attacked by both Republicans and Democrats for the comment. The following day, Perry issues a press release apologizing to those he may have offended.

It was simply an inappropriate thing to say.
- Rick Perry

Polling:
PPP - Iowa Republican Primary
Bachmann - 15%
Romney - 14%
Perry - 14%
Paul - 12%
Santorum - 8%
Cain - 6%
Giuliani - 5%
Gingrich - 3%
Pataki - 2%
Huntsman - 0%

Iowa Republicans are still pretty unsure as to who they want as their nominee, with a high percentage of undecideds. This month we see Bachmann reclaim the lead, with Romney polling in second. Paul continues to hold his own in Iowa only trailing by 3 points. At this point, Huntsman's campaign is non-existent in Iowa.

PPP - New Hampshire Republican Primary
Romney - 31%
Giuliani - 15%
Perry - 10%
Paul - 8%
Pataki - 7%
Bachmann - 7%
Cain - 5%
Huntsman - 4%
Gingrich - 3%
Santorum - 2%

Romney continues to have a large lead over his Republican rivals, with Giulani debuting in second place. New Hampshire is a must-win state for Romney, Giulani, Pataki, and Huntsman. Whichever of these moderates comes away with a win will likely absorb much of the other three's support. Huntsman has been campaigning like crazy in New Hampshire for the past few weeks, yet still only comes in at 4%.

Haha, I can say I called this early.

Will try and make an update soon.

Yay!

Very interesting....More please :D

September 6th, 2011: John Bolton, former UN Ambassador, announces that he will not be a candidate for President in 2008 and in turn endorses Mitt Romney.

September 22nd, 2011: Michigan Representative Thad McCotter announces that he will be suspending his campaign. He endorses Mitt Romney.

That evening, a GOP Debate was held in Orlando, Florida. In the debate, Santorum condemned his opponents for running a negative race, and spends the night bashing President Obama.

This man is a threat to our nation's future - Our nation cannot afford 4 more years of Barack Obama, and I am the only candidate on this stage who can make sure he doesn't get that 2nd term!
- Rock Santorum


September 26th, 2011: A straw poll is conducted in Florida, and following a strong debate performance, Rick Santorum wins by a handy margin.

Results:
Rick Santorum - 32%
Rick Perry - 14%
Rudy Giuliani - 11
Ron Paul - 10%
Mitt Romney - 10%
Newt Gingrich - 8%
Herman Cain - 5%
Michele Bachmann - 5%
George Pataki - 3%
Jon Huntsman - 2%

Polling:
Washington Post - National
Romney - 19%
Santorum - 17%
Perry - 15%
Giuliani - 12%
Paul - 10%
Bachmann - 7%
Gingrich - 5%
Cain - 3%
Pataki - 3%
Huntsman - 2%

Insider Advantage - Florida
Mitt Romney - 24%
Rick Santorum - 20%
Rudy Giuliani - 18%

Its back! With Santorum in Cains place.

Cain for senator!  Or VP....

October 2nd, 2011: Speaking on Meet The Press, Mayor Michael Bloomberg leaves the door open to a third party run in 2012.

You know, a lot can happen in the next few months, so I'm not going to rule anything out. Everything is on the table.
- Michael Bloomberg


Gallup - National Head-to-Head
Romney - 43%
Obama - 39%
Bloomberg - 12%

Obama - 40%
Santorum - 38%
Bloomberg - 15%

Obama - 42%
Perry - 39%
Bloomberg - 13%

Paul / Bloomberg 2012?

Early October, 2011: Both Chris Christie and Sarah Palin announce they will not seek the GOP nomination. Christie endorses Romney, while Palin says she will wait and decide.

October 18th, 2011: Republicans debate on CNN in Las Vegas, Nevada, with Santorum and Romney center-stage.

The question remains, which Mitt is running in 2012? The 1994 Mitt that supported abortion and said he'd be to the left of Ted Kennedy on gay rights? Or the "Massachusetts Moderate" from 2002 who once again campaigned on a pro-choice platform? Who knows, maybe we'll get the 2008 Romney that campaigned as a very conservative guy. America needs a President who's stable in their beliefs, not one who will do whatever flip-flop it takes to get into the White House.
- Rick Santorum

Rick Santorum, you're wrong on foreign policy, and you're a hypocrite on government spending. You're lying to the American people by saying you're going to cut spending, just look at your record! You've bragged about passing earmarks!
- Ron Paul

Debate pundits agreed that it was a good night for Ron Paul, who largely went on the offensive against Rick Santorum. Newt Gingrich stumbled, especially when asked about his Moon colonization projects.

October 22nd, 2011: After failing to gain traction, Herman Cain withdraws from the Republican race, but vows to continue on his fight to get "9-9-9" into law.


November 5th, 2011: The Sioux Falls Straw Poll is held.

Results (Top 3):
Rick Santorum: 30%
Mitt Romney: 24%
Ron Paul: 20%

Polling:
National
Santorum - 21%
Romney - 18%
Perry - 13%
Paul - 12%
Giuliani - 10%
Bachmann - 6%
Gingrich - 4%
Pataki - 3%
Huntsman - 2%

Iowa
Santorum - 26%
Romney - 22%
Paul - 15%
Perry - 11%
Bachmann - 10%
Gingrich - 6%

New Hampshire
Romney: 36%
Giuliani: 13%
Santorum: 10%
Huntsman: 8%
Perry: 5%

December Summary
Several more debates are held throughout December. Largely, the debates are considered a wash, as no candidate received a huge bounce. Perry has continued his downward trend nationally due to his poor campaigning, and Gingrich has failed to grab any momentum.

In Iowa, the race is between Romney, Santorum, and Paul. However, with attacks mounting on Romney and Santorum, Paul has a shot here. Santorum is having to compete with the conservative vote with Perry, Bachmann, and Gingrich, while Romney is having to compete for the moderate vote with Pataki and Giuliani, both who have decided to invest in Iowa.
- Annalist Chuck Todd

Iowa 3rd, 2012:
Today, the Iowa caucus was held in Iowa.



Results:
Ron Paul - 24% (Yellow)
Mitt Romney - 23% (Green)
Rick Santorum - 21% (Red)
Rick Perry - 14% (Blue)
Michele Bachmann - 11%
Newt Gingrich - 4%

()
Ron Paul - Red

Go Ronny Go!

This dead?

No, I just forgot to update it. ;)

There'll be an update today.

January 4th, 2012:

Following a disappointing finish in Iowa, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann  and former Speaker Newt Gingrich withdraws from the Presidential race, neither making an endorsement.

Last night, the people of Iowa spoke with a very clear voice, and with last nights results in mind, I have decided to stand aside in the race to take on Barack Obama this November. I am proud of what we have accomplished, and have no regrets. We stood our ground, and never compromised our principles.

The fight continues, and it remains crucial that we make sure Barack Obama is a one-term President! I will do whatever I can in this race to make sure that happens, regardless of who our nominee may be.
- Michele Bachmann


Today, I announce my withdrawal from the Presidential race. There is no timetable for an endorsement.

This isn't what we were hoping for, but Iowans have spoken, and I don't see a viable path forward for our campaign. I thank all of my supporters, and wish you all the best. Thank you.
- Newt Gingrich


Polling Update:

Obama Job Approval Rating (Rasmussen Reports)
Approve:  45%   
Disapproval: 54% 

Obama Job Approval Rating (Gallup)
Approval:  43 %   (strongly approve: 25%)
Disapproval:  50 %  (strongly disapprove: 44%)

New Hampshire Primary (Public Policy Polling)
Romney - 30%
Giuliani - 19%
Paul - 16%
Huntsman - 9%
Santorum - 7%
Pataki - 7%
Perry - 3%

New Hampshire Primary (Suffolk University)
Romney - 28%
Paul - 20%
Giuliani - 19%
Huntsman - 8%
Santorum - 6%
Pataki - 5%
Perry - 2%

South Carolina Primary (Marist College)
Santorum - 25%
Romney - 18%
Perry - 15%
Paul - 11%
Giuliani - 6%
Huntsman - 3%
Pataki - 2%

National Polling (Gallup 3-Day Tracking)
Romney - 22%
Santorum - 16%
Paul - 15%
Perry - 10%
Giuliani - 8%
Huntsman - 4%
Pataki - 3%

Analysis: As the election progresses, many Republicans are unhappy with the choice in this race. Over 60% of "Tea Party Voters" say they are at least somewhat dissatisfied with the field of candidates.

Yay!

Did Rudy and Pataki make the ballot in Iowa?

Doesn't look like it.

They did, just performed poorly, so weren't on the list.

Gotcha ;)

With 95% of precincts reporting, we can confirm that Mitt Romney will hang on in New Hampshire. The state was a make or break for his campaign, and after a poor debate performance this past weekend, many questioned whether he'd be able to pull it out.

The story of the night, however, is Ron Paul's late surge in New Hampshire, which resulted in him overtaking Rudy Giuliani for second place and almost defeating Romney.

Following the New Hampshire primary, George Pataki announced his withdrawal from the race. Neither Huntsman or Giuliani gave an indication of what their future plans would be.


Results
Mitt Romney - 27.43% (Green)
Ron Paul - 25.86% (Yellow
Rudy Giuliani - 21.68%
Jon Huntsman - 10.34%
Rick Santorum - 6.98%
George Pataki - 5.65%
Rick Perry - 2.60%

()

Rudy, Pataki, and Huntsman are finished.

Simply put, we had to do well New Hampshire to stay alive. We put in a great effort, but we just couldn't get the job done. Today, I'm announcing that I will be ending my campaign for Presidency.

Looking forward, I think it's important that Republicans unite behind someone who is fiscally conservative and can defeat Barack Obama in November. With that in mind, I'm giving my endorsement to Rudy Giuliani, in hopes that he will be able to unite the party and win it all.
- George Pataki

After many prayers, my family has decided it is best for me to stand aside in this race. We have fought a hard fought, but simply haven't had the results we were hoping for.

It is with great pride, though, that I announce my endorsement for Rudy Giuliani. He's someone who, I believe can unite this party and also attract moderate support needed to defeat Barack Obama.
- Jon Huntsman

---

At this point in the race, I think everyone was expecting a candidate to claim some momentum. At this stage, instead, we have several candidates all claiming they have the momentum. Mitt Romney, even though he only won one of his homestates by less than 2%, is claiming victory after strong showings in the first 2 states. Ron Paul probably has the best argument, after pulling off an upset in Iowa and nearly pulling one off in New Hampshire. His numbers have spiked, and reports suggest that in the past week, he's ran even with Romney in terms of fundraising.

Then, you got Rudy Giuliani. After New Hampshire, I thought he was done for. Now, all of a sudden, he has Pataki and Huntsman both throwing their support behind him, and he's also starting to get moderates to coalesce around him. Just today he picked up the endorsement of former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge, and also has an endorsement from Olympia Snowe.

Rick Santorum is still in the thick of things, claiming he is the only real conservative left in the race, while Rick Perry still has a breathing hope in South Carolina. This is anyone's race!


National Republican Primary Poll (Rasmussen Reports)
Mitt Romney - 22%
Ron Paul - 20%
Rudy Giuliani - 15%
Rick Santorum - 14%
Rick Perry - 11%

Great update!

January 16th, 2012: The remaining GOP candidates debate in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. It was aired on Fox News.

Some key moments of the debate.

Now is not the time for more division and partisanship in America - it is time for new hope, and a new leader that's ready to put American's back to work. I have the proven leadership experience, leading the people of New York City through the most trying of times. It's time to once again make America a beacon of hope throughout the world.
- Rudy Giulani

---

I am the only true conservative remaining in this race. Congressman Paul has a foreign policy plan that will cripple our nation, both Governor Romney and Mayor Giuliani have questionable positions on social issues, and Governor Perry is one of the most pro-immigration candidates we've had. This party was founded on conservative principles, and I'll restore them.
- Rick Santorum

There he goes again, creating more lies and trying to say whatever he can to win votes. Rick Santorum is not conservative, he's lying. Don't let him fool you. He voted for all of the big spending bills under Governor Bush, and repeatedly compromised his beliefs for backroom politics. There's a reason he lost by the biggest margin of any incumbment in 2006, and that's because he forgot the people he represented and the need to fight for liberty!
- Ron Paul

---

We can have all of this bickering, or we can focus on the real opponent in this election - President Barack Obama. I think we all know that I'm not the greatest debator, but I have something none of the other candidates have - a proven record as Governor that shows that smart, conservative policies work. We've created more jobs in Texas than anywhere else. I'll take our blueprint in Texas to the national stage, and we're going to get America working again!
- Rick Perry

Analysis on the Debate:
Karl Rove - This was the most watched debate of the year, and that's because a majority of Republicans still have no clue what they're going to do. The biggest winner for tonight, in my opinion, was Rick Perry. He avoided gaffes and did a successful job at touting his plans and his experience as Governor.

Another reason why tonight was a big night for Perry - Santorum fell apart. He was repeatedly labeled a "big-government Republican", with Paul attacking him in almost every answer he gave. Some Americans may look down on Paul's negative approach, but he made Santorum look like a fool tonight, while successfully making some points as well.

Tonight, Giuliani established himself as the moderate choice in this election, and reminded voters that he's the most electable of the bunch. Finally, tonight was a wash for Governor Romney - he did nothing to hurt his status as "weak frontrunner", but didn't help his cause either.

Post-Debate Polls:
National Republican Primary Poll (Rasmussen Reports)
Mitt Romney - 21% (-1)
Ron Paul - 18% (-2)
Rick Perry - 16% (+5)
Rudy Giuliani - 16% (+1)
Rick Santorum - 10% (-4)

South Carolina Primary Poll (Gallup)
Perry - 29%
Romney - 21%
Santorum - 15%
Paul - 14%
Giuliani - 10%

That debate was interesting. Rudy, as pointed out, is the new moderate. Romney is nothing for the time being. Paul and Perry are going to be the Conservatives in the race, as Santorums record is out for everyone to see. Great timeline :)

With the votes counted, we can easily project that Texas Governor Rick Perry will win the South Carolina. Governor Perry benefited from strong debate performances in recent week, and also spent more money than any other candidate in South Carolina. When adding in the endorsement of Senator Jim Demint, it was fully expected that he would win.

Results:
Rick Perry: 38%
Mitt Romney: 28%
Ron Paul: 14%
Rick Santorum: 10%
Rudy Giuliani: 9%


Florida Poll (Post South Carolina):
Rick Perry - 25%
Rudy Giuliani - 23%
Mitt Romney - 17%
Ron Paul - 8%
Rick Santorum - 6%

It's back!

After prayerful consideration, today, I announce that I will be suspending my race for President of the United States. We have fought a good fight, but at the end of the day, we just weren't able to capture the momentum needed to win the White House.

Rick Santorum declined to make an endorsement, but an insider in the Santorum camp states that the former Senator plans to make an endorsement soon, and that endorsement will likely be either Governor Romney or Governor Perry.

National Republican Primary Poll (Rasmussen Reports)
Rick Perry - 30%
Mitt Romney - 22%
Ron Paul - 17%
Rudy Giuliani - 16%

Florida will be a huge test for our campaign. It is imperative that we win here.
- Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani


January 24th: In a surprise move, former Florida Governor Charlie Crist announces that he will be voting for Rudy Giuliani, but will not make any appearances with him.

Having Crist's support will certainly hurt Giuliani's support with conservative voters, but then again, he wasn't strong with them to begin with. What it will do, though, is help Giuliani with Independents. Can Giuliani get enough Independents to vote with him to win Florida? We'll see.
- Chuck Todd

We won't be contesting Florida. We will appear in a debate there next week, but that's about the extent of it. Rather, we will be focusing on upcoming caucus states, as well as the Missouri primary.
- Ron Paul

Florida Polling:
ARG:
Perry - 27%
Giuliani - 26%
Romney - 20%
Paul - 7%

CNN/Time:
Giuliani - 26%
Perry - 24%
Romney - 22%
Paul - 11%

PPP:
Giuliani - 29%
Perry - 28%
Romney - 25%
Paul - 8%

Analysis: It's a three-way race. Romney appears to have the late momentum, an he has spent more in Florida than his opponents combined. Florida could become one of the most expensive, if not the most expensive, primary in American history. Giuliani, Perry, and Romney all have a lot riding here, while Paul has decided to skip out on the state.

Let me take this post to say that I'm praying for the day I see this when I open up my email

Amen!

:D.  I look forward to future installments; all your TLs are great.

January 31st: Following a narrow victory in New Hampshire, it was collectively decided by many insiders within the Republican Party that the Romney campaign was fading fast. A string of mediocre debate performances and a ten-point loss to Governor Perry only contributed to that sentiment. However, after outspending all of his opponents combined in Florida by a 3-1 margin, Romney's advertising attack paid off, giving the Governor a win and assuring the death of Mayor Giuliani's second, and likely final, presidential campaign.

Florida Results:
Mitt Romney - 34%
Rudy Giuliani - 28%
Rick Perry - 27%
Ron Paul - 10%

February 1st:

After speaking with my family and closest campaign advisers, I recognize that there is no viable path towards garnering the Republican nomination. I will be withdrawing from the Republican primaries. I am extremely grateful to my supporters, many working hours upon hours towards our goal. I have nothing but kind words to say about my opponents: Governor Mitt Romney, Governor Rick Perry, and Congressman Ron Paul.

It is imperative that the Republican Party is united and strong heading into this fall. President Obama has failed this nation both at home and overseas, and our country desperately needs real leadership. I am confident that Governor Romney is the candidate who can best run a successful campaign in November, and I enthusiastically back his candidacy. Thank you all. God Bless.
- Mayor Rudy Giuliani

November 4th: Despite Nevada's libertarian-leanings, heavy Mormon turnout lands the state in Romney's column. However, the Paul campaign has nothing to be ashamed of, as the campaign finished in a strong second, surpassing Governor Rick Perry.

Nevada Results:
Mitt Romney - 48%
Ron Paul - 27%
Rick Perry - 25%

Considering their limitations as a candidate with wide-appeal, Governor Perry and Congressman Paul are both running strong campaigns. Both are receiving substantial support from the Tea Party. However, this division is keeping either of them from mounting a serious challenge to Governor Romney, and unless one drops out soon, which I think is very unlikely, Governor Romney should start preparing for Tampa in August.
- Karl Rove

WOOT!

It looks like Romney will end up with the nomination.

February 7th: Thanks to great organization and turnout, Congressman Paul surprised many today with a moderate victory in the Minnesota Caucus. Congressman Paul was also successful in the beauty contest known as the Missouri Primary, though no delegates were awarded.

Not all was bad for the Romney campaign, however, as the Governor was able to scrape by in Colorado. Momentum is starting to swing behind Congressman Paul - will Governor Romney soon turn negative on the Congressman?

Minnesota Results:
Ron Paul - 44%
Mitt Romney - 30%
Rick Perry - 24%

Missouri Results:
Ron Paul - 45%
Mitt Romney - 33%
Rick Perry - 20%

Colorado Results:
Mitt Romney - 36%
Ron Paul - 33%
Rick Perry - 30%

February 6th: Today, the Romney campaign announced an television ad buy that hit Congressman Paul on foreign policy. This is the first sign of negativity between the Romney and Paul Campaigns.

February 11th: After seven days, it is announced that Congressman Paul has also won the Maine Caucus. This represents the third win out of the last four states for the Congressman, and national polls show him slowly catching up with Governor Romney.

Public Policy Polling (National):
Mitt Romney - 36%
Ron Paul - 27%
Rick Perry - 22%
Undecided - 14%

February 22nd: In what proved to be a turning point for Governor Perry, the candidates sparred at a debate in Phoenix, Arizona.

Congressman Paul's views on foreign policy are not only out of line with the principles of the Republican Party, but they threaten our national security. I have great respect for Congressman Paul sticking to his principles, but there is a reason he has been unable to pass legislation during his long tenure in Washington D.C. - he is simply too extreme to effectively lead.
- Governor Mitt Romney

I never thought I would see the day where I would be attacked for standing by my principles, let alone to Governor Romney, a man with a notorious record for flip-flopping to appease the voting base. This is a man who has campaign as pro-life and pro-choice, pro-gay marriage and against gay marriage, and supported universal healthcare until it was no longer convenient to do so. Mitt Romney will say whatever he needs to say in order to win the nomination - I find that type of character to be far more dangerous for our nation.
- Congressman Ron Paul

On one side we have a Congressman who is admired by many but has many extreme views and has no sort of executive experience. On the other side...we have a candidate who has the needed executive experience, but he has a wishy-washy record on multiple issues. How can we expect to campaign against Obamacare this fall with a candidate who passed the same thing in his own state?

Not only do I have executive experience, but I have overseen the fastest growing and most business-friendly state in the nation - Texas. Despite the Obama recession, our economy has continued to grow due to conservative governing. I am the only candidate remaining who has a proven conservative record and the experience needed to lead our nation.
- Governor Rick Perry

CNN Flash Poll:
Who won the debate?
Rick Perry - 55%
Ron Paul - 29%
Mitt Romney - 8%

Arizona Poll:
Rick Perry - 37%
Mitt Romney - 30%
Ron Paul - 19%

Michigan Poll:
Rick Perry - 38%
Mitt Romney - 36%
Ron Paul - 11%

I'm so glad this is back :).


....and dear God, I was a freshman when this timeline started :P. Feels like an eternity since then.

February 28th: After a strong debate performance, Texas Governor Rick Perry looked nearly unstoppable, jumping up to a tie with Romney in national polls, a prime example of how elastic this race has been. However, following a week of attacks by both Governor Romney and Congressman Paul, specifically highlighting past debate performances, the Governor has slowly faded back.

That being said, Perry's campaign received a major boost after recieving the endorsement of Jan Brewer, and his campaign was able to prevail in Arizona. However, in Michigan, Governor Romney was able to spend his way to another victory. Despite his absence from these states in preparation for Super Tuesday, Congressman Paul also had surprisingly strong showings in both states.

Arizona Results:
Rick Perry - 39%
Mitt Romney - 36%
Ron Paul - 24%

Michigan Results:
Mitt Romney - 44%
Rick Perry - 35%
Ron Paul - 20%

February 29th: Despite strong making visits to the state and having the better organization, strong Mormon turnout enabled Governor Romney to narrowly take the Wyoming Caucus over Ron Paul, winning 38%-36%.

March 1st: The next week could make or break each campaign. While Governor Romney is airing ads in all Super Tuesday states, the campaign is focusing primarily on Ohio and Georgia. Congressman Paul is hoping to win a string of small states, campaigning in Washington for the upset, Alaska, North Dakota, and Vermont. His campaign is also campaigning in Virginia, where they face a head-to-head matchup with Governor Romney. Rick Perry is sticking to the South, focusing heavily on Georgia and Tennessee while also hoping to pull out a big win in Ohio.

March 3rd: Ron Paul pulls off another surprise in the Washington caucus. Pundits begin to compare his campaign to President Obama's in 2008 due to his focus on the caucus states, something Romney has not contested heavily to this point.

Washington Results:
Ron Paul - 38%
Mitt Romney - 37%
Rick Perry - 24%

March 6th: In the biggest day of the primary season, each candidate has reasons to declare victory, only suggested a prolonged primary season. Congressman Paul picked up wins in North Dakota and Vermont, while also coming close in Virginia. Governor Romney maintained the Northeast and won the crucial Ohio primary. Rick Perry held the South by strong margins.

Alaska Results:
Ron Paul - 39%
Mitt Romney - 34%
Rick Perry - 26%

Georgia Results:
Rick Perry - 41%
Mitt Romney - 35%
Ron Paul - 23%

Idaho Results:
Mitt Romney - 52%
Ron Paul - 34%
Rick Perry - 13%

Massachusetts Results:
Mitt Romney - 63%
Ron Paul - 19%
Rick Perry - 17%

North Dakota Results:
Ron Paul - 36%
Mitt Romney - 35%
Rick Perry - 28%

Ohio Results:
Mitt Romney - 40%
Rick Perry - 36%
Ron Paul - 23%

Oklahoma Results:
Rick Perry - 44%
Mitt Romney - 32%
Ron Paul - 23%

Tennessee Results:
Rick Perry - 38%
Mitt Romney - 34%
Ron Paul - 25%

Virginia Results:
Mitt Romney - 53%
Ron Paul - 47%

Vermont Results:
Mitt Romney - 41%
Ron Paul - 37%
Rick Perry - 21%

Had Perry been on the ballot in Virginia, won there, and also have taken Ohio, I think one could make the argument that this is a two-way dogfight. Ron Paul is only going to stay in to prove a point - he has done far better than anyone expected, winning several states, but he doesn't have the resources nor the base to win the needed states. Mitt Romney has performed much weaker than anyone expected, but after tonight's results, I still don't see any way he can lose the nomination.
-Karl Rove

What is the delegate count thus far?

I hope Ron Paul is chosen and loose to Obama. A Neo-Con wave takes back the Republican Party and Democrats Govern for twenty four years :P

I have not been able to master how to keep track - if anyone knows of a website or could do it, it would be much appreciated.

I bumped this up simply to finish it - going to try and speedtrack this and have 2012 done by the end of this week. Reader interest will determine whether it extends beyond.

I'd like to see an update! :D

Uh.. Hey just a suggestion, I don't think it's a good idea to bump a thread that died over two years ago :P