Talk Elections

Author's Note: Sorry if this is poor form, but I've taken what posters have been saying seriously, and they're right. It would be fantastical to have a pro-choice nominee at this juncture, so I've changed the issue to gay rights and changed the nominee to Jon Huntsman to make this timeline more realistic. Thanks for reading guys


Prologue:

June 2012

Huffington Post - REPUBLICAN FIELD IN TURMOIL?

NBC Evening News

"...we have come so far. But this campaign has never been about me. It's about the future of this country. Which is why this morning I have formally ended my campaign, so that we can focus on defeating Andrew Cuomo and the best way to do that is to join me in supporting Jon Huntsman for President."

'Brian Williams: That was Senator Marco Rubio earlier this afternoon in Orlando, FL, dropping out of the hotly contested Republican primary after the final votes had been tallied in South Dakota and Oregon, endorsing the former Utah Governor and Ambassador Jon Huntsman. Doubts still remain as to how united the party will be behind Ambassador Huntsman whose support of civil unions has come under fire this campaign  ....'

Politico - Rubio endorses Huntsman


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P.2 ....Rubio had emerged as the front runner for the nomination after coming in second behind Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann in the Iowa caucuses. After Jon Huntsman's come from behind win in New Hampshire, Rubio, Bachmann and Huntsman and squared off in South Carolina. While Rubio was initially favored to win, Huntsman won the endorsement of Governor Nikki Haley and toppled Rubio. Huntsman, after winning in Michigan and coming in second in the Rubio’s homestate Florida primary, went on to tie Rubio nationally on Super Tuesday, opening up a lead of about 60 delegates. Rubio was largely hampered by dodging the infamous “What about your state?” comment by David Gregory and Bachmann’s ensuing refusal to drop out of the race, while Huntsman was able to take advantage of the winner take all process and solidify support in the Northeast and most notably, in California….

Bachmann would not drop out until after she was publicly urged to drop out by one of her fiercest supporters, Kansas Governor Sam Brownback, who endorsed Rubio in an effort to stop Huntsman. The governor was unavailable for a comment today.

MSNBC: Hardball with Chris Matthews


Chris Matthews: ….why did Rubio stay in the race? Why didn’t he concede after Pennsylvania? Here's Huntsman, whose done everything right who claims he can win 50 states and Rubio bleeds him throughout the primary season. I think he's basically trying to cripple the nominee over one issue so he has the better chance in 2020. Joan?

Joan Walsh:  Hi, Chris. Yeah, Marco Rubio and to a lesser extent Michele Bachmann are emblematic of that whole Tea Party thing of cutting off their nose to spite their face. In fact in this case, sinking the nominee off of only one issue that isn’t in line with tea party orthodoxy, they’re cutting off their face to spite their nose-

Matthews: Ha! Let me bring Chris Cilizza in on this. Chris, I love your blog the Fix. I read it every day. So what’s the deal? You’re Karl Rove or the Chairman of the RNC, you’ve got a formidable opponent in Andrew Cuomo, where do you go from here?

Chris Cilizza: Hey Chris, thanks for the plug. First, a point of disagreement with Joan with the whole sinking the nominee. Let’s look at what happened after Pennsylvania where everyone knew now that Huntsman would come out on top without some implosion. Rubio didn’t drop out but he didn’t really directly attack him from there on. If you noticed he went on the attack against Andrew Cuomo. If anything, he was showing off his attack dog chomps to help sink Cuomo in the general while keeping the base placated.

Matthews: So you're saying he stayed in the race to appease the Bob vander Plaatses? Give those people people just the illusion of a choice? How does that work, cause they’re still voting against the nominee of the party?

Walsh: The field's in chaos Chris.

Cilliza: Don't underestimate how disciplined the Republicans are. Putting Rubio on the ticket solves that dilemma. There's a lot of people in the party sighing relief that Huntsman is the nominee because gay marriage is an issue that is fast turning against them. I think that’s what Rubio’s been auditioning for after he figured he couldn't w-

Matthews:  Yeah like a show of force. That whole ‘me and my friends in half the convention would appreciate a spot for me on the ticket.‘ That’s interesting.

FOX NEWS- Hannity

Sean Hannity: ….why did Rubio concede? He should’ve fought it to the convention. I know you’re going to disagree with me Karl but that’s the problem with republicans these days! They’ve been giving the liberals in the democrat party what they want!

Karl Rove: Well I think that Rubio ran a great race. He was my original pick as you know, but I think the best way to defeat Andrew Cuomo, who supports full out marriage, Sean is to elect Jon Huntsman. The best thing he can do to get elected is to put Marco Rubio on the ticket.

Sean Hannity: Rubio should've stuck it out to the convention....

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Red: Senator Marco Rubio
Green: Governor Jon Huntsman
Yellow: Representative Michele Bachmann*

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*Author's note: If the math doesn't quite add up, I'd be happy to adjust certain states

One month before the Republican National Convention.

Michael Steele: I think the real issue here is that, look it's a Republican year. As far as we're concerned, gay marriage is a state's issue. Republicans are going to get behind Jon Huntsman who is pro life and a real fiscal conservative once the convention comes along. His appeal to independents is going to help him carry the swing states."

Jon Stewart: Do you think Governor Huntsman can make good on his promise to carry 50 states?

Michael Steele: You know Bob, I do. He'll certainly be able to compete in all of them. I think he'll go into election day with 300 in his back pocket.

Jon Stewart: You're really bullish about this guy huh?

Michael Steele: (laughs)

Gallup:
Huntsman: 49% Cuomo: 44%

Rasmussen:
Huntsman: 52% Cuomo: 46%

Obama Job Approval: 42%

Huntsman Favorable

Democrats: 45%
Republican: 62%
Independents: 61%

Cuomo Favorable

Democrats: 82%
Republicans: 29%
Independents: 53%

"Republicans are going to sit this one out and hope for better in 2020. They'll just try to sink the economy for Andrew Cuomo to get Rubio elected next cycle." Markos Moulitsas

"We'll see how the convention goes. If we eat each other alive, Cuomo has a fighting chance, if not, it's Jon Hunstman's to lose. Not only would it be foolish politically because Huntsman is the best nominee we've had since Reagan, but it would be foolish on a higher level because Huntsman would be the best president we've had since Reagan" Joe Scarborough

One thing for sure: it doesn't matter if Brown or Cuomo is elected president, they will be really bipartisan and moderate, and will appeal to the other party, too.

Awesome. Can't say I'm a huge Brown fan, but I'm glad to see Republicans survive in the Northeast & hopefully make some inroads there while holding the South.

In an interview given today, Governor Sam Brownback (R-KS), publicly said that “until Jon comes out in favor for a constitutional amendment protecting marriage, we need to protect marriage.” Brownback’s fiery comments do not come as a shock to many in the GOP, who echoed their concerns in the Republican primaries. Huntsman’s camp responded:

“Sam Brownback’s comments are typical of those who have no economic record to stand on or plan to give.  Jon has repeatedly said that this type of issue should be settled on the statewide level. As governor he supported civil unions but would never force his views on others, unlike Governor Brownback. Jon will continue to fight against those who would divide and distract us and for the jobs of those suffering from these times of economic hardship.”

Brownback is publicly urging Fmr candidate Senator Marco Rubio to challenge Huntsman at the convention: “if they want a Republican to win this November, they need to pick a real Republican.” Behind the scenes, Republican operatives are urging delegates released by Marco Rubio to vote for Jon Huntsman on the first ballot. Publicly, they are confident that Huntsman will launch from the convention unscathed.

“It would be an irony of fate,” says former Utah Senator Robert Bennett “if we had a nominee like Jon who could get upwards of 55 per cent of the popular vote and win 49 states but hamstring him before he could get running.” Bennett, who lost a primary to Congressman Mike Lee in 2010, laments that “ideological purists have cost us huge victories. This could be the second presidential election where the Democrats win despite themselves.”

Examining it from the Republican side, it's a gamble. On one hand, Brown could get you the Presidency. On the other hand, would it really be worth it? His most Conservative points are on taxes and foreign policy. You take what you can get, but at the same time, if you're a Republican and you can get more, shouldn't you try? It's a difficult conundrum, but both could be better than Cuomo, at least in theory.

Actually It's 61 percent of Americans who want abortion banned or strongly restricted. Scott Brown would not have a shot at the nomination in a scenario such as that. Rubio should fight to the convention.

You're wrong.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx

Politico - Pressure on Rubio to reconsider, challenge Huntsman at Convention

Drudge - Scuttlebutt: Insurrection Coming

Jonathan Alter: There's been real pressure for Rubio to contest the convention. My sources are telling me they're looking to draft a compromise candidate like a Former Governor Chris Christie who can bring the Huntsman wing of the party together with the Rubio and Bachmann. Bachmann has still not released her delegates.


The Next Morning

Politico: Huntsman Picks Rubio

Huffington Post: Can He Stave off the Damage?

New York Times: Former Rivals to head Republican Ticket

Eugene Robinson: Well obviously it's the smartest choice. He probably rolled it out a lot faster than he would have liked to mitigate the Brownback eruption and the growing dissatisfaction with a moderate as the nominee.

Joe Klein: Rubio's smart. He didn't want to deadlock the convention because he knew he gets first pickings in '20 if Cuomo wins. He doesn't want to be seen as costing the Republicans their second best shot in two cycles at the White House. I think Huntsman is going to be forced to aggressively attack Cuomo on all things New York: high taxes, government restrictions and over guns. All those 'live-free or die' things that worked so well in New Hampshire for him. He needs to make that argument: 'if you think you can afford to sit this one out think again.'

Sean Hannity: I still have my doubts about Huntsman, but with Rubio on the ticket I would rather have him than Cuomo.

Rush Limbaugh: 'If only we could abort the top of the ticket'

Michele Malkin: Rubio should have contested the convention. He is a sellout. We need to look into an alternative candidate.

Chris Matthews: ...it's like the scene in the Godfather: 'it's the smart move, Rubio was always smarter.'

Read your own link.

About 1/3 of the way down the page, under the question "(If certain circumstances) Do you think abortion should be legal in most circumstances or only in a few circumstances?"
The combined responses have 61% for abortion illegal in all or legal in only a few circumstances.

You're right. Revisionist history time!

Also here are Andrew Cuomo's list for VP candidates he is currently vetting:

Mark Warner (VA)
Tim Kaine (VA)
Jeanne Shaheene (NH)
Brian Shweitzer (MT)
Martin O'Malley (ML)
Michael Bennett (CO)

Chris Matthews: I think it's funny, absent from this list is Governor Lincoln Chaffee, whose praise stopped short of an endorsement during the primaries. My gut feeling that Chafee didn't want to be vetted because he is going to endorse Hunstman or stay neutral.

Chuck Todd: Huntsman has brought up his favorables with Republicans to a 71-22 margin. Now that's a huge improvement over last week where his highest had been 62% shortly after his New Hampshire win. The Huntsman people believe this will not be a problem in the general, where he leads Cuomo in all of the states  that Bush won in 04 and Obama won in 08 as well as the Perry states they have to defend from last cycle. Our newest poll has some really bad news for Cuomo

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Based on the polling, our political department at MSNBC has a 281-125 Huntsman electoral vote lead with 132 in the margin of error. That means if the election were held today, Huntsman would win handily, and it's not hard to imagine another 20 to break off to bring Huntsman to 300 electoral votes. Look at all of these are democratic states, including former strongholds like California, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Pennsylvania. All within the margin of error. Ohio, Florida and Virginia, arguably the three most important swing states has a Huntsman up by five or more points. If I'm Andrew Cuomo, I'm very worried right now....



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Flashback to the Republican Debate, two days before the South Carolina Primary

Rubio: 16%
Huntsman: 14%
Bachmann: 9%
Pawlenty: 5%


David Gregory: Now onto the issue of gay marriage Governor Pawlenty where do you stand on the amendment Congresswoman Bachmann has proposed defining marriage as between a man and a woman?

Pawlenty: You know, I would, the institution is one that needs to be protected Chris. I want the voters to know I stand for traditional marriage.

Gregory: Senator Rubio.

Rubio: I think that it is a state issue and that the states should decide.

Gregory: What if the issue were to come up in Florida?

Rubio: I'm a senator, my job is to make

Gregory: As a voter, how would you vote?

Rubio: I think that's a private issue-

Jon Huntsman: What the Senator is trying to say is that he wouldn't force his views on anyone. I've come out in favor of civil unions-

Michele Bachmann: I think we all know that by now! (audience laughs)

Huntsman: Yes you've let everyone know that by now. You've also reminded everyone that I'm a Mormon. No, no I don't mind. As a Mormon I don't drink alcohol, but I'm not going to try to bring prohibition back. I think if two adults are happy together, it's not the government's business or any of mine.

Gregory: So do you support the Defense of Marriage act?

Huntsman: Call me crazy, but I don't. I think that if you have a civil union in Utah, then Florida should recognize it in state business. The same way that if you have a license to carry a handgun in South Carolina, Massachusetts should honor it within its borders. (Mixed
enthusiastic applause and booing)


Flash forward




Politico - Republicans tense as Bachmann still refuses to concede the election.

Washington Post - Many Teas Party Members stick with Bachmann



Townhall - It's Over

TPM: Bachmann drops out, Releases Delegates

The Week: Bachmann pledges support to "the Republican Ticket"

"Bachmann seems to have won what she could given her low delegate count, with the Republican Party platform having written into it a strong declaration supporting her Protection of Marriage Amendment"

Real Clear Politics: John Kasich gives Keynote speech, slams Cuomo as "running on the coattails of a failed president"




Huffingtonpost: Republican convention nominates Rubio for VP by acclamation

NYT: Rubio Nominated, Slams Cuomo as Obama's 3rd Term

Politico: Rubio assures Solidarity with Huntsman

"Rubio hit Cuomo on foreign policy inexperience, claiming that Huntsman had 'created jobs at home' and 'stopped the bleeding from the Obama administration' abroad. Rubio stressed Huntsman's conservative credentials and ability to make the federal government 'lean, trim and far away from your life as possible.' (p2) ... (p3) ...the convention gave him a 10 minute standing ovation"

Dang! While I probably agree more with Huntsman than Brown, I personally think Brown is more interesting as a potential candidate. (A Rubio/Brown ticket would be pretty sweet, but you've already laid out your plans)

Reading through the new update... "If only we could abort the top of the ticket"? Really?

In general though, good updates. Can we have some pictures? I know it's a couple years off, but pictures can help fill up space as well as add some color to the thing.

Thanks alot! The more I thought about it, the more I thought that the poster who disagreed with my choice was right. Brown would have never made it to the nomination and it's important for the yarn to have the potential fracture. The abortion comment was supposed to be provocative when Brown was the first pro-choice nominee, I just left it in because Limbaugh might still joke about that.

Oh, and I am going to retroactively add pictures once I get my post count up (I'm a new guy on the block) haha

(PPP) Is Jon Huntsman conservative enough?

Yes: 52%
No: 34%
Not sure: 14%

Does Huntsman's selection of Marco Rubio as his running mate increase or decrease your likelihood of voting for him?
(Among no's and not sure's)

Increase: 54%
Decrease: 3%
No effect: 43

Day Four

John King: This is CNN, live from the RNC from Phoenix, Arizona. Breaking News, where there have been reports of delegates carrying bundled stacks of "Draft Brownback" signs. Kansas Governor Sam Brownback was not given a speaking slot because of his refusal to endorse the ticket.

Two hours later....

Politico: Sarah Palin surprised the convention in officially nominating Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas for President, claiming the GOP "must be the party of family values" to deserve winning the Presidency.

Unnamed RNC Staffer: I don't think this is surprising, coming from someone who peaked five years ago when she made the shooting of a dozen people about her. She's hit her bottom and fast becoming irrelevant. Her endorsement couldn't help Rubio this cycle and she cost the party Ted Stevens's Senate seat in 2014. Sam Brownback had two years to run for president, if still wants to be president, he can wait until 2024.

Delegate Count

First Ballot
Huntsman: 1008
Rubio: 3
Bachmann: 2
Brownback: 353

Fifth Ballot:
Huntsman: 1904
Rubio: 1
Bachmann: 0
Brownback:  474

shortly after

Shep Smith: That was the scene a few minutes ago, where Kansas Governor Sam Brownback and his delegates walk out of convention, citing irreconcilable differences over  protecting the institution of marriage

Rachel Maddow: It's shocking that members in the Republican party are willing to defect over this issue, to support a candidate they know can't win over this issue. This is how deeply they believe in their religious convictions.

Brian Williams: We have word that Michele Bachmann is not in the convention hall. Can we... is that right? Alright we can confirm, Michele Bachmann has left the building. Possibly with the Brownback delegation.

Jon Huntsman, Republican Nominee for 2016 Presidential Election
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NYT: Huntsman accepts nomination, calls for party unity.

Townhall: GOP has Candidate, but do we?

The Next Night, FOXNEWS

Sean Hannity: He didn't go after Obama enough, he even praised him briefly. He barely mentioned Andrew Cuomo or went after him enough. What is it about the democrats that Jon Huntsman can't attack? Governor?

Sam Brownback: Well I think Jon Huntsman has always been afraid to call himself a Republican. He served President Obama early in his term, he called him a great leader. It's clear that little has changed in his line of thinking. He is not a conservative, that's why I'm running as a third party candidate this cycle. I've been speaking to the heads of certain conservative groups and parties in states like the Tea Party of Florida and the Conservative Party in New York and, Sean I think you're gonna be surprised with the kind of support we're going to have nation-wide.

Gallup Polling, Week of Democratic Convention
Cuomo: 44%
Huntsman: 42%
Brownback: 9%
Undecided/Not Sure: 5%


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"The next Vice-President of the United States: Michael Bennet."

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"We are members of the Democratic Party, we know where we stand on equal rights. We don't have to broker our convention or have our members storm out. We know what we believe!"


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"Poll Shows Convention Bounce for Cuomo, Brownback Divides GOP"

Cuomo/Bennet: 46%
Huntsman/Rubio: 40%
Sam Brownback: 11%

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John King: This is really interesting. You see here Cuomo has taken the lead of over 80 electoral votes once the lean dem and lean GOP states have been added. All Cuomo needs to do is capture previous Obama states as well as New Mexico and he's past the 270 threshold. Without Suzanna Martinez on the ballot this year, New Mexico could very well swing back to the Democrats and if Cuomo can repeat Obama's narrow 2012 victory in Virginia this year, he's feeling good about becoming the 45th president.

Wolf Blitzer: John, what role do you think Sam Brownback is playing? Is he a spoiler?

King: If certainly seems that way. One of the reasons you've seen this huge swing more than 100 electoral votes is that Brownback has eroded the foundation of Huntsman support in the Republican party. Many of these Lean Cuomo states have him winning by a plurality that very well have gone to Huntsman. If you look at Iowa where Bob Vander Plaats has already endorsed Sam Brownback, it had moved from Lean Huntsman to toss-up. You're going to see alot of that in the toss-up states are ones where Huntsman would probably be leading. What should make team Huntsman a bit queazy is that Sam Brownback has already put his homestate of Kansas and Idaho in his column early on in the game.

Blitzer: Jon I have to interrupt you for one second. Sam Brownback has started his tour of the South with a very interesting announcement: Georgia businessman and former Presidential candidate Herman Cain will be his running mate.

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Huntsman would carry ID and UT fairly easily.

Utah-ians are mad at Huntsman right now because he ran away from Mormonism during the primaries to win South Carolina, alot of the Christian Right were reticent to vote for a Mormon. A lot of the Mormon community felt burned that Huntsman was somehow disavowing their faith. Utah may come around, depends how the campaign goes.

----------------------------------

Sam Brownback has released a list of endorsements:

Former Senator Rick Santorum (PA)
Former Governor Rick Scott (FL)
Former Governor Sarah Palin (AZ)
Senator Jerry Moran (KS)
Actor Stephen Baldwin
Ralph Reed
Congressman Allen West (FL)
Former Congessman Steve King
Independent Senate Candidate Bob vander Plaats

Brownback will have a ballot access problem since he waited until the Republican convention to announce. He's likely to have missed independent filing deadlines in several states.

Rubio would side with Brownback not Huntsman. He opposes gay marriage and supports an amendment banning gay marriage.

Huntsman still thinks its a state's issue. Rubio isn't going to ruin his credibility in the Republican party, especially if Huntsman loses. He does not want to be seen as someone who cost the GOP yet another chance at the White House. Huntsman is still very conservative on fiscal issues. Rubio knows better than to sink the election over one issue.  The GOP is still licking its wounds from 2012

Yeah, and Reagan might agree with Schmitz more than Nixon in 1972. That doesn't mean he's gonna endorse Schmitz over Nixon. Rubio here knows enough to bide his time and either come otu when the smoke clears in 2020, or maybe even become Vice-President now.

If I've read correctly it sounds like Romney lost to Obama by a comfortable margin and couldn't win Indiana?

I will have to check what I wrote but the rather close 2012 election was this:

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Obama/Biden: 270 EV 49.8%
Perry/Martinez: 268 EV 49.1%
Other: O EV 1.2%


Obama was actually able to win with a 44% Approval rating. commentators thought that he had a 46% ceiling throughout the campaign. He led Perry 44 to 42 on average with the small exception of the bump at Perry received after the convention. It was actually after the debate where Obama managed to lead him 47-45. Perry fumbled a few questions and came off as too abrasive. John McCain go on to slam the tea party for blowing a sure thing. His concerns echoed into the to 2016 election

Perry failed to pick up the undecideds who were looking for someone to vote for besides Obama and so many "held their noses" and voted for Obama because the Democrats were able to Perry as an extremist and even worse.

What was a very smart move on Perry's part was putting Susanna Martinez on the ticket. He had previously released the shortlist with her name, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and John Huntsman who himself had gained some traction after Romney stumbled badly in the fall of 2011 and ultimately cost him the victory in New Hampshire. This, he believed would seal off Obama's path to victory in the so-called "doomsday scenario." However high turnout in Northern Virginia ultimately delivered Obama reelection at 3:37 AM.

The campaign was objectively believed to be the nastiest since the 19th century where the Republicans painted Obama as unpatriotic European and someone who didn't believe America was superior but was just part of something much larger than itself and the Democrats painted Perry as small minded stupid narrowing his view and too in love with the past. it would seem that the 1.2% many of which were write-ins were simply votes of no-confidence. In fact "no-confidence" received an astounding of 725,000 votes, (many of which were centered in Nevada which helped Perry win.)

Both Democrats and Republicans lost seats with a net gain of 14 for the Democrats. Senate results forthcoming. Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Mexico and Nevada were the closest states.

Politico: Huntsman's best surrogate?

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Since the chaos of the Republican national convention a two weeks ago and with Sam Brownback sucking out much of the Republican's base, Jon Huntsman has found a surprising ally in Rick Perry. in the past two weeks Huntsman has appeared alongside Perry in Texas and is held for separate events as a campaign sorry in Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama and his home state of Texas.

Perry, who declined to seek the nomination again after a razor thin defeat in 2012, took the fight to Sam Brownback, calling him "a good man" and "good Christian" but saying that his vision is wrong for the country and emphasizing Huntsman's conservative credentials.

"This is good for Perry," says a senior member of this team "he became a sort of persona non grata after the 2012 loss. After being seen as a real sore loser, he couldn't run again in this environment. Now that Sam Brownback is occupying that space of a spoiler, Perry doesn't seem bad in comparison." The anathematized attitude was prevalent in the 2014 elections when very few candidates asked Perry to come and campaign with them. For many like Susanna Martinez,  Perry's influence was not enough. The senior aide goes on:

"Perry also has a few favors to repay to Huntsman. Although indirectly, Huntsman helped stop Perry's biggest obstacle to the nomination in Mitt Romney which helped Perry wrap things up relatively quickly. Secondly, Huntsman campaigned hard for Perry in New Hampshire and Nevada which many consider to has helped swung the states."

Where Perry goes from here is another matter. Should Huntsman lose, Rubio would be immediate front-runner for the 2020 nomination but should Huntsman win, Rubio would be the front-runner in 2024. Some of suggested that he is looking for a cabinet position and others believe that he is looking to regain leadership in the conservative movement.

Brownback to only appear on the ballot in certain states

Due to his late entry in the race Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback will only appear on the ballot in certain states. Republican campaign lawyers have been relentlessly filing petitions to have his name removed from the ballot. So far, these are the states where his name will appear

Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, Georgia, Kansas, Florida, Nebraska, Kentucky, Arkansas, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Texas. In certain states where the Tea party is an official party, Brownback has accepted their nominations. This should come as good news to the Cuomo campaign who believe they will be able to compete in all of the states.

Brownback's margin will be decreased immensely in states where he will have to be a write-in candidate.

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Good news and bad news for both camps: over 300 electoral votes are up for grabs. Huntsman's relative popularity is helping him remain competitive in Democratic states while the Brownback surge is allowing Andrew Cuomo to compete on what would be Huntsman's turf. Especially with Herman Cain on the ticket, Brownback is particularly strong in the South. The real question now is how long can Brownback go until he peaks and does Huntsman either:

1. Tack to the middle to try to capture California and Pennsylvania and other democratic states
 or
2. Shore up his base in the red states and try to win a traditional campaign

In any case, this promises to be truly the first 50 state campaign

Ok. I can see why you let a moderate get 2016. Small problem. Perry is as establishment as Romney and should the moderates get the nomination like they have every GOP presidential primary since 1988 in 2012 IRL, A Rubio or a Brownback will be the GOP nominee and next president in 2016.  Still, good work.

Thank you very much and that's an interesting point. This timeline is predicated upon the idea that Rick Perry was an extreme candidate and although the establishment embraced him as he became the eventual nominee he was still very antiestablishment

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"We respect Sam Brownback's opinion but the Republican Party platform clearly states support for a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and woman. Our nominee's personal views on civil unions are subordinate to his view that it is a states issue. There hasn't been a poll that showed him over 9%. He's a good man but now he's hurting the party and there's no real path for him to win. I think it's time for Sam Brownback to drop out and endorse the Republican nominee so we can go on to be Andrew Cuomo in November"
-Majority Whip Sen. John Thune

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"Well I think the public is tired of Republican control. We've had Republican control for over 16 years whether in name or in function so I think it's well past the time we actually give true progressive ideas a shot. I think the American people are ready for that which is why I think were going to win in November."
-Oregon Rep. Peter DeFazio on Cuomo's presumed difficulty running as a Democrat.

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"Now, the polls showing over 300 electoral votes are up for grabs! Republicans are telling us to drop out and there's 300 e-lec-tor-al votes up for grabs! Now tell me America do you think that we can get 300 e-lec-tor-al votes to protect marriage?! (cheers) Do think we can get 300 e-lec-tor-al votes to defend traditional family values?! (cheers) Can we get 300 e-lec-tor-al votes for the Christian ideals that make this country great?! Now I promise if you support us, if you vote for us, if you tell your friends about us if you're willing to do a little campaigning for us and say I am a Christian and I am proud of it, then I promise you Sam Brownback and I will go to work for you in Washington!"
-Independent Vice-Presidential Candidate Herman Cain


"Well Wolf, the Tea Party Caucus, of which I am the chairwoman, voted on whom to endorse for president and by a comfortable margin, we decided Sam Brownback and Herman Cain are the best men to lead this country."
Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, Tea Party Caucus Chair



"The tea party is supposed to be more than just social issues. We're supposed to exist to keep the government and to keep its checkbook in check. the Congressional tea party caucus has abandoned for the political vote which will end up putting a tax-and-spend Democrat in the White House. This is why we support the Republican nominee, Jon Huntsman, and are leaving the caucus to fight for the Tea Party fiscal values that made this country great."-
Rep. Pete Sessions (TX) on his and 7 others' resignations from the Tea Party Caucus

Maybe if it were 2012 I could just say "f#ck it!" and vote Brownback, but in this scenario, I'd feel forced to stick with the Republicans, mainly to prevent a third Democratic term. :P Very interesting stuff. It'd be cool to see Brownback take a couple states.

Herman Cain has been throwing the number 300 in his campaign some stump speech lately, claiming that they are "up for grabs." Despite what their Veep says, there does not seem to be a path for Brownback-Cain this year unless the numbers start to move rapidly. Upon closer inspection, it's closer to 85 electoral votes up for grabs.

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When TPM factored in states that were two or three points outside the margin of error, we calculated the total of 238 for Andrew Cuomo and 206 for Jon Huntsman with 88 pure tossup. That reduces Cain's claim down from unlikely to damn near impossible.

The news gets worse in states within the margin of error, the Brownback campaign is not competitive. They are only competitive in the lean Huntsman states Georgia Tennessee Kentucky and Alabama.

This means two things 1) the Brownback appeal is a strictly southern appeal (seems to have very little effect further north) and 2) Huntsman is a very strong general election candidate, competitive in deep Democratic territory, which should keep the Cuomo campaign staff up at night, hoping Brownback does not drop out.

It all comes down to where the campaigns want to spend their money.

---------------------------------

"Jon Huntsman does not have the time or resources to compete in California. He needs 'to dance with the one who brung ya.' He needs to come home and shore up the southern states to really put a lid on this Brownback thing. If,... if we feel like were being neglected who knows what they'll do? If Jon's gonna win this thing he's gotta do it through Ohio, Florida and Virginia." -RNC Chair Haley Barbour on a hot mic, Fox News Sunday

Excerpt from Fracture: The 2016 election by Mark Halperin and John Heilman:

"Our sources tell us that Barbour knew at the microphone was on. He needed to convey the message that the ticket was in trouble. The RNC was in a panic over what Brownback was doing and that they could lose the South for the first time in a generation. They were particularly exasperated by Huntsman's insistence on winning 50 states and sending Rubio to campaign in more conservative areas. As far as Barbour and the party bosses saw it, "campaigning in 50 states won't do you any good if you don't get the 270 electoral votes. If you want to win a mandate prove you're worth a damn and win 50 states on your reelection. The conservatives need to see their candidate or all they'll see is Sam Brownback"
(164)

Was Bachmann the original VP, or am I just getting things confused?

No I changed it. It's the 3rd thing I've ret-conned. I'm officially Stalin now...

I gotta agree with Hakey on this one.

Really Brownback isn't liked by a lot of the Tea Party folk because of his more lenient position on illegal immigration and a general "compassionate conservative" attitude. Interesting nonetheless.

Perry: 258
Obama: 248
Too close to call: 32

David Gregory:...hold on we have a projection to make-New Mexico. New Mexico has gone for Rick Perry. Late into the night, Perry taking the lead with four swing states still to be decided. What do you think Chris? This is definitely a piece of good news for Perry-Martinez.

()

Chris Matthews: Well it would seem that Perry's gamble paid off. He figured he didn't need Rubio to carry Florida and he carried Florida. He didn't need Kasich to carry Ohio, he didn't need  Mitch Daniels to carry Indiana. you will see whether or not choosing Martinez over Bob McDonnell hurt him in Virginia.

David Gregory: Most interesting of all is a very peculiar scenario Nevada let's go to Chuck Todd.

Chuck Todd: Hey David, very interesting in Nevada for Perry leads Obama 48 to 47 with a whopping 5% casting their ballot for "none of the above..."

()



Chris Matthews: It looks like Shelly Berkley is going to defeat Dean Heller. The second Democratic pick-up tonight which is keeping the hope alive for the Democrats' holding on to the Senate. What this means for Obama's chances in the state, we're not sure.


Chris Matthews: I dont know the last candidate to win the presidency without winning Ohio and Florida.

Joe Scarborough: What we are essentially seeing is the Obama campaign's fallback for the nightmare scenario. He's counting on the West to deliver on the reelection should he lose the traditional swing states. Now, not only has he lost the swing states but Rick Perry shot a giant hole through that Western plan by picking off New Mexico.

Jonathan Alter: However, Obama iss doing a lot better than the Perry campaign would like in Virginia. The traditional wisdom would be that if Ohio and Florida were gone and New Mexico got in Colorado and Nevada were still up in the air that Virginia would've been Perry's column an hour ago.

Chris Matthews: Obama is counting on Virginia, now, because if it goes to Perry, Obama's done.

David Gregory: Chris hold on one second finally getting in the numbers, and we can project that Colorado will go for Obama. The President is still in the game, effectively tying Rick Perry 258-257.

()

2:14 a.m.

David Gregory: By a narrow margin, we project Nevada for Perry. Perry has won Nevada Nevada, which is sending home its Senator has voted to send home the President as well.

()

()

2:47 a.m.

Senator Patty Murray: We're confident we'll hold on to the Senate

Chris Matthews: Senator you holding onto the Senate is going to depend entirely on Virginia sending both the President and Tim Kaine to Washington.

Eugene Robinson: Do you know if Harry Reid intends to lead the Senate in the 113th Congress?

Chris Matthews: Hold on one second Senator this is pretty big news, New Hampshire will go to Perry. The Live Free or Die state which began voting over 24 hours ago has cast its votes for the Governor of Texas. It doesn't really matter at this point, because Virginia has the amount either of them need to cross the threshold.

David Gregory: Still no word on Virginia....


()

()

5:33 a.m.

Joe Scarborough: ....for all of you who are just waking up to go to work you got here just in time we can project that by a margin of 1400 votes, the President will win Virginia. The President has been re-elected after one of the most grueling campaigns, the nastiest in memory. The Senate, still up in the air, Kaine is narrowly leading Allen by a few hundred votes. The second time Virginia will decide the make-up of the Senate, the second time the results have gone into the early morning

()

Mike Barnicle: This is just a heartbreaker for Perry, losing by 2 electoral votes. But I gotta say, this is what a lot of Republicans were warning the party about.

Joe Scarborough: They blew it Mike. Don't expect them to blow it like this in four years

Mika Breziznski: I can't believe we're already talking about 2016 already.

Joe Scarborough: The campaign began 6 months ago and this president doesn't have a mandate and neither does Congress. He's almost already a lame duck

()

Did Perry win over the popular vote?

No, Obama won by ~500,000 votes

David Gregory: We've got a bunch of polls closing in 10 minutes but we have a prediction to make, New Hampshire will go for Jon Huntsman. The live free or die state, going for the Republican for the second cycle. That means the vote count is now at 110 Cuomo, 105 Huntsman. What to make of this Chris?

()


Chris Matthews: Well I think that for Huntsman, this proves what the polls have been saying, that he's a very attractive candidate. And places where either Sam Brownback isn't on the ballot or where economic concerns are bigger than social issues, he's going to do very well. I think it'll get really interesting once we see the the results in Ohio and Indiana and other rust belt states that Cuomo contested to see how much of an effect Brownback will have.

Eugene Robinson: Andrew Cuomo has got to be hoping that Sam Brownback's voters will keep the faith after the disaster of a campaign Brownback has run in the past 3 weeks. We're already seeing that with Arkansas, Georgia and some of the other states. That might be the path to victory for Cuomo is to get Virginia and Colorado again.

Lawrence O'Donnell: He has to hold California though, Gene. The Republicans have been angry with the Huntsman campaign for how much time he's spent in the West Coast but if it pays off, there Jon Huntsman will be sitting on top on 300 electoral votes.

David Gregory: We have a projection to make, it looks like John Boozman will be reelected to a second term



Chris Matthews: No real surprise there although that throws hot water on Cuomo's chances in the state. What do you make of that? Almost 1.5 billion dollars spent by both campaigns, more states in play than any election in memory.

Lawrence O'Donnell: It's interesting because we could see the first time where a Democrat has been competitive in the south in a long time and the first time that a Republican has been competitive in the north in a long time. If either one of them ran against a traditional opponent they would be a lock but you have two moderate, two very popular governors running highly effective campaigns. And then you have Sam Brownback.

Chris Matthews: Ha! And then there's Brownback. What do you think that says about the Republican Party Jon? That they couldn't convince this guy to drop out? They couldn't make him Commerce Secretary or threaten him?

Jonathan Alter: There's this theory thats been getting a lot of traction: Obama's victory in 2012 was the 1st time we saw 3 incumbent presidents reelected in a row since Thomas Jefferson. The deck is really stacked against the next president, and those hard-core Republicans who happen to be social conservatives, some of them feel neglected on issues like gay marriage and climate change and don't like Jon Huntsman, they're perfectly happy to sit this one out and vote for more conservative guy the next time.

Eugene Robinson: I'm not sure how much stake I'd put in that: after eight years of Obama, the Republicans are itching to get back the White House. Look at the Senate map: Kirk was reelected, Kelly Ayotte was reelected. Besides Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, the Republicans are protecting their Senate gains from 2010 largely

Jonathan Alter: It goes to show you Republicans are voting for a Republican Senate to insulate them from potential Cuomo victory. Brownback is trying to make the statement that that wing of the party still wields an incredible amount of power and to ignore them at your own peril. Why they're doing it to a guy like Huntsman who is pro-life and when he was governor of Utah was a pretty conservative guy is beyond me. I'm wondering if Brownback's angling for a run at the 2020 nomination no matter who the president is.

Chris Matthews: Very interesting, Cuomo still has a lot to gain in this with Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Georgia and North Carolina all up in the air. Ha! This is wild. We have a projection to make in the Pennsylvania Senate election: Patrick Murphy will defeat one term Senator Pat Toomey. Murphy, who beat Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick for the second time in 2014 is seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party. This is the second pick-up for the Democrats. With the failure to defeat Dan Coats and Mark Kirk however, the majority is still a long-shot.

Previously:

.... Dan Coats will win re-election...


.... Mark Kirk will defeat challenger Jesse Jackson Jr....

.... Tom Barrett will unseat Senator Ron Johnson...



... and Marco Rubio will win re-election to the Senate


3 Weeks Earlier...

"....and I'll tell you why I'm not running again: I'm not running for Senate because I'm running to be the vice president! I'm not running for Senate because we're going to win! I'm not running for Senate because unlike Marco Rubio am not willing to waste your money on a special election just to cover my ass! I'll tell you why they're scared of losing: cause Andrew Cuomo and I are going to reform the government and make it work for you and not the special int...."

Senator Michael Bennet, campaigning in Colorado

Excerpt from Fracture: The 2016 Election by Mark Halperin and John Heilman:

Rubio's decision to stay on the ballot really angered the Florida GOP who saw it as selfish, and jeopardizing the fate of the Senate, giving the power to appoint a successor to the independent Gov. Charlie Crist whom the GOP naturally distrusted. Crist tried to allay their fears by promising that he would appoint a Republican placeholder, floating the name of Jeb Bush. National Republicans were irked because they saw it as a lack of confidence for the GOP ticket. "Only a snake runs for two offices at once," anonymous high-level RNC member said.
-p.267

UPDATE:

David Gregory: We have a major call, for Kentucky, for the first time in 20 years, Kentucky will vote to send a Democrat to the White House. Kentucky has gone for Cuomo. A very Democratic state, it voted for Bush twice, McCain and Perry now will go with a plurality for Governor Andrew Cuomo




Chris Matthews: This is big, David. This really is turning out to be hell of a night. Cuomo is making inroads amongst these folks

Joe Scarborough: Or at least Sam Brownback is still enough of a candidate in the south that Cuomo is able to jump through an opening

Chris Matthews: All I know is that the Republican party is fuming right now. Both at Brownback, for if not blowing the best chance to get in the white house, really cutting into what could have been a 400 electoral vote night for Huntsman. But they're also fuming at Huntsman for not spending enough time in the South. Here Huntsman is riding off to conquer his enemy's territory, California, Oregon, Rhode Island, New Jersey and then his own capital has a revolt.

Eugene Robinson: Machiavelli would be displeased

[laughs]
 

...
------------------------------------


David Gregory: 9:00, polls closing, we have some projections to make:

We can project for Cuomo: New York, Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico

for Huntsman: Wyoming, North Dakota, Louisiana and finally Texas will go for the former Utah Governor.

Arizona and Nebraska too close too call as well as Alabama, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Missouri and Arkansas. Total electpral count,

.....

continue, please!

Oh God--Rep. Lois Frankel! I live in a suburb of West Palm and I am pretty sure Frankels entrance to Congress would be the begining of the end times!

Crist's back as Governor of Florida? :P

Are you out of your mind? Bennet as VP? That baboon would never be able to walk around stage without his handlers. No way he could hold his own in the VP debate or anything outside of a stump speech.

hey, Bennet is one of my favourites in the Senate

Are you planning on ever continuing this?

I'm breaking out my bump hammer