Title: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: freepcrusher on August 30, 2011, 02:37:24 PM political complexion, population, ethnicity etc would be today? I just did the 80s districts in Arizona on DRA.
() () () I must have f'ed up with the linking code for the statewide map. I'll be back with more later. Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: NY Jew on August 30, 2011, 03:03:02 PM can you do NYC also?
Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Associate Justice PiT on August 30, 2011, 03:08:42 PM It would be hilarious to do an old Michigan map to see how underpopulated the Detroit districts would be today.
Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: freepcrusher on August 31, 2011, 12:06:15 AM here are the information on the 1980s Arizona districts
1st District Population 1,449,216; 62.3% White; 54.5% McCain 2nd District Population 951,344; 60.1% Hispanic; 61.7% Obama 3rd District Population 1,606,572; 61% White; 56.9% McCain 4th District Population 1,176,659 67.9% White; 56.7% McCain 5th District Population 1,208,226 62.6% White; 53.1% McCain Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: freepcrusher on August 31, 2011, 12:15:30 AM ()
Here is San Diego in the 1980s. The 43rd district at the time extended into orange county so I haven't finished it quite yet 41st District Population 816,431; 60.8% White; 60.2% Obama 44th District Population 810,895; 53.1% Hispanic; 67% Obama 45th District Population 835,241; 49.7% White, 38.2% Hispanic, 4.5% Asian, 4.2% Black, 2.9% Other, .8% Native; 53.4% McCain Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Miles on September 01, 2011, 12:25:34 AM Here's NC in the 1990's:
() () Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Miles on October 12, 2011, 07:27:30 PM Here's NC from 1940-1960:
() Of course, I'be analyzing it in terms of today's politics. CD1 50.5/48.8 Obama 53.2/46.8 Democratic Deviation: -357,547 Butterfield wouldn't live here, which I guess is a good thing, because this seat would be too swingy for him anyway. Given, the region's Democratic history, this would be Lean D. Walter JOnes would actually barely live in this district, but more of his current district is in the 3rd. CD2 58.9/40.7 Obama 62.5/37.5 Democratic Deviation: -456,937 Talk about slow population growth! This is by far the least populated district at only 338k people; the next smallest is the 1st, which has almost exactly 100,000 more residents (437k). In any case, this district should be more friendly to Butterfield and he'd actually live here. In terms of registered voters, blacks and white each have exactly 46.6%. Overwhelming Democratic at the state level and almost 60% Obama = Safe D. CD3 57.7/41.6 McCain 55.1/44.9 Republican Deviation: -126,805 This where Jones would run, despite living barely outside of the district. Perdue carried all the counties here except for Carteret and Pender. Safe R with Jones, Lean R if open. CD4 51.7/47.3 Obama 50.1/49.9 Democratic Deviation: 682,285 No doubt, this district has experienced the most growth. As I expected, very swingy, especially at the state level. The Democratic lean of Wake, Chatham and Vance are almost cancelled out by heavily GOP Randolph and Johnston. This would be a good seat for Bob Etheridge. I'm guessing of the current delegation, Brad Miller would run here; he should win as long as he controls the bleeding in Randoplh and Johnston. The trend would favor Democrats. Slight D rating overall. CD5 50.3/48.7 McCain 51.3/48.7 Republican Deviation: -106,138 From a numbers perspective, this is almost a mirror image of the 4th; swingy, but slightly GOP. Every county is trending GOP except for Forsyth and Person. I don't think any of the current Democats or Republicans would want this seat. Coble would be the best guess, but this district would be totally new for him and at 80, I doubt he'd want to seriously campaign in a competitive seat. Foxx would be too conservative/controversial to win here. Still, Slight R. CD6 63.4/35.8 Obama 61.0/39.0 Democratic Deviation: 246,301 David Price would probably get this fast-growing, strongly Democratic seat. Republican Alamance is easily outweighed by deeply blue Durham, Orange and Guilford. Safe D. CD7 50.7/48.5 Obama 53.2/46.8 Democratic Deviation: 177,039 Putting all of Cumberland county here gives McIntyre an Obama district. He might even have a more liberal challenge, but I don't see him losing here. Safe for McIntyre, Lean/Likely D if open. CD8 60.3/38.7 McCain 59.8/40.2 Republican Deviation: 49,139 This would be even worse for Kissell than the just-passed Republican map. I really don't see how he, or any Democrat, could carry this seat. His best option would probably be to carpetbag over to the 10th, since he already represents a chunk of Mecklenburg county and the 10th would be ideologically similar to his current 8th. Even though Robin Hayes lives one county over in Stanly, this would be a great chance for him to make a comeback. The shape of this district kinda baffles me. Surely, it can exchange its heavily GOP northern counties(Wilkes, Yadkin, Davie) for nearer ones (like Stanly and Cabarrus) and the overall partisanship of the district wouldn't change, though I'm not sure how that would effect the deviation; still, since every district is made of of whole counties, I expect the margin for population deviation would be relatively high. In any case, Safe R CD9 60.7/38.1 McCain 61.2/38.8 Republican Deviation: -48,421 Basically a string of counties running from the piedmont to the VA border. This would be the best district for Foxx and, numerically, its very close to her current 5th. Safe R. CD10 54.3/44.8 Obama 50.6/49.4 Democratic Deviation: 481,915 Quite odd in that Mecklenburg has virtually nothing in common with the other counties. At 63% white, I doubt Watt could win here and he could have been too liberal to win here in 2010.Conversely, Myrick would be too conservative to win here. As I said, Kissell's best move would be to carpetbag here since he already has area in Charlotte. Probably Lean D in most years. CD11 60.8/38.3 McCain 58.7/41.3 Republican Deviation: -318,562 We could have an interesting primary here between Myrick and McHenry. While McHenry has more area here in his distict, Myrick would have a base in Gastonia and she had Cleveland county in the 1990s. In any case, the winner gets a Safe R+15 district. CD12 51.0/47.7 McCain 51.8/48.2 Republican Deviation: -222, 374 A pretty logical district nestled in the southwestern corner of the state. 'Very safe for Shuler. Overall, a pretty good map for Democrats; it would pretty much be 6-4-2. In a normal year: Democrats:1, 2,6,7,10, 12 Republicans: 3,8,9, 11 Tossups: 5,6 Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on October 12, 2011, 09:04:27 PM I know it is contrary to the purpose of the thread, but could calculate the 1948 and 1960 Presidential results for your map, Miles?
I am curious about something. Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Miles on October 13, 2011, 12:58:51 AM Here's 1960. I'll work on 1948 later.
(colors are based on margins of victory) () () All the "swingy" districts broke for Nixon but Kennedy was able to rack up overwhelming margins in the eastern districts to carry the state. 4 of Nixon's 7 districts were within 5 points; by contrast Kennedy's lowest margin was 15 points (in the 4th district). Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Miles on October 13, 2011, 03:33:27 PM Here's 1948:
(map is just percentages, not margins of victory) () () Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Mr.Phips on October 14, 2011, 04:55:16 PM No maps, but im working on 1981-1991 Alabama.
AL-01: 60% McCain, 39% Obama AL-02: 57% McCain, 43% Obama AL-03: 62% McCain, 37% Obama AL-05: 62% McCain, 36% Obama AL-06: 46% McCain, 53% Obama Couldnt do the 4th and 7th because of split counties. 1981-1991 Georgia: GA-01: 55% McCain, 44% Obama GA-02: 55% McCain, 44% Obama GA-03: 54% McCain, 45% Obama GA-06: 52% McCain, 47% Obama GA-07: 59% McCain, 40% Obama GA-08: 55% McCain, 44% Obama 1981-1991 North Carolina: NC-01: 52% McCain, 48% Obama NC-04: 44% McCain, 55% Obama NC-05: 54% McCain, 45% Obama NC-06: 48% McCain, 52% Obama NC-07: 47% McCain, 52% Obama 1981-1991 South Carolina: SC-01: 49% McCain, 50% Obama SC-02: 46% McCain, 53% Obama SC-03: 63% McCain, 35% Obama SC-04: 60% McCain, 38% Obama SC-05: 54% McCain, 45% Obama SC-06: 52% McCain, 47% Obama Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: cowboy300 on October 16, 2011, 07:02:28 PM Anyone know a website where old maps are available?
Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Miles on October 16, 2011, 11:39:58 PM Anyone know a website where old maps are available? No, unfortunately not; there's no "holy grail" of such maps. You kinda have to Google them on a state-by-state basis and see what you can find. Still, Senator Fuzzleton has done a pretty great job of compiling maps from past elections by Congressional District here on the forum. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=137677.0) Right now, we're helping him find Congressional maps from the 1950's and 1960's. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=142013.0) Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on October 19, 2011, 09:53:59 PM Well, it was what I expected.
I was curious has to how many districts Dewey had won, if any, and as for Nixon whether he won all the western seats or not. Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Miles on October 20, 2011, 08:08:15 PM Well, it was what I expected. I was curious has to how many districts Dewey had won, if any, and as for Nixon whether he won all the western seats or not. Yep, most of Nixon's districts were very close, but he did sweep the western part of the state. Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: freepcrusher on October 20, 2011, 08:32:23 PM AL-06: 46% McCain, 53% Obama I'm sure Ben Erdreich would like to have that district back. In 1992, all the black areas were removed from his district and he was a goner. Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Mr.Phips on October 21, 2011, 06:59:06 PM AL-06: 46% McCain, 53% Obama I'm sure Ben Erdreich would like to have that district back. In 1992, all the black areas were removed from his district and he was a goner. He would probably be vulnerable to a black primary challenger now, as the district would have a black percentage in the high 40's. In 1992, it actually looked as if Erdreich would still win even in the new, heavily Republican district. He led Bachus in most polls. Turns out that they were polling mostly his old district. Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: JoeyJoeJoe on October 26, 2011, 09:34:21 PM ()
Virginia in the 1960s. The 8th is a little bit overcrowded. The 8/10 border might be a little off. Here are the Pres numbers for each of them: VA-1: 51.8/48.2 Obama VA-2: 70.0/30.0 Obama VA-3: 57.1/42.9 Obama VA-4: 50.2/49.8 Obama VA-5: 57.4/42.6 McCain VA-6: 55.2/44.8 McCain VA-7: 55.0/45.0 McCain VA-8: 52.2/47.8 Obama VA-9: 63.5/36.5 McCain VA-10: 64.7/35.3 Obama Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 28, 2011, 02:34:31 AM Here's North Carolina 2008 by 1968 boundaries, compared to the 1968 election by the same lines.
() It's worthy to note that the old 4th and 9th districts have about 2.5 million people when they're combined. lol Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: nclib on October 28, 2011, 10:51:57 AM I'd be interested in seeing the 1990's version of WI-4 (actually voted Bush in 2000). I imagine that the 1990's TX-10, UT-2, and MD-2 went for Obama.
Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario) on October 28, 2011, 12:38:37 PM 1860's Wisconsin:
() District 1 (Milwaukee, Kenosha, Janesville): 56.9% Obama, 51.2% Republican average. This is the most populous district, with a population of 1,962,019. If Wisconsin had six congressional districts today, more than two of them would be within the confines of this district. District 2 (Madison): 68.7% Obama, 64.3% Democratic average. Population 628,592. District 3 (Prairie du Chien, Richland Center): 61.7% Obama, 50.2% Democratic average. This is the least populous district, with a population of 225,214. District 4 (Fond du Lac, Sheboygan): 56.7% McCain, 68.6% Republican average. Population 524,181. District 5 (Green Bay): 53.6% Obama, 57.4% Republican average. Population 965,670. This district is the closest to ideal size for six congressional districts, with a deviation of +17,839. District 6 (La Crosse, Eau Claire, Superior): 55.8% Obama, 54.3% Republican average. Population 1,381,310. More to come... Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: krazen1211 on October 28, 2011, 01:23:44 PM Detroit once had 5 congressmen (and presumably 5 districts mostly within the city) in the 50s.
What are the populations of those 5 districts today? I wonder if there's any under 100k. Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario) on October 28, 2011, 02:24:45 PM 1870's Wisconsin
() District 1 (Janesville, Kenosha, Waukesha): 50.8% McCain, 62.4% Republican average. Population 1,014,284. District 2 (Madison): 68.1% Obama, 63.3% Democratic average. Population 690,568. This is the closest district to ideal population, with a deviation of -20,305. District 3 (Prairie du Chien, Richland Center): 62.1% Obama, 50.2% Democratic average. Still the least populous district by far, at 163,238. District 4 (Milwaukee): 60.7% Obama, 54.0% Democratic average. This is the most populous district, at 1,166,017. District 5 (Fond du Lac, Sheboygan): 50.7% McCain, 64.0% Republican average. Population 387,341. District 6 (Green Bay, Appleton): 53.7% Obama, 56.8% Republican average. Population 784,983. District 7 (La Crosse, Eau Claire): 56.7% Obama, 53.5% Republican average. Population 518,195. District 8 (Superior, Stevens Point): 55.0% Obama, 55.2% Republican average. Population 962,360. 1880’s Wisconsin: () District 1 (Janesville, Kenosha): 55.5% Obama, 54.9% Republican average. Population 708,079. District 2 (Waukesha, Fond du Lac): 60.6% McCain, 71.1% Republican average. Population 712,170. District 3 (Madison): 70.9% Obama, 66.2% Democratic average. Population 616,646. This district is closest to the ideal size for nine districts, with a deviation of -15,241. District 4 (Milwaukee): 67.2% Obama, 61.9% Democratic average. This is the most populous district, at 947,735. District 5 (Green Bay, Sheboygan): 50.0% Obama (48.6% McCain), 61.3% Republican average. Population 600,896. District 6 (Appleton, Oshkosh): 54.5% Obama, 55.6% Republican average. Population 480,348. District 7 (La Crosse, Prairie du Chien): 59.3% Obama, 51.6% Republican average. This is the least populous district, at 312,389. District 8 (Eau Claire, Superior): 55.4% Obama, 53.7% Republican average. Population 553,584. District 9 (Stevens Point, Shawano): 54.7% Obama, 56.0% Republican average. Population 755,139. Note that there is only water contiguity between Door County and the rest of the district. Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Torie on October 29, 2011, 12:15:26 PM CA CD's circa 1899. It seems that the bay side of San Francisco was rather densely populated doesn't it? :)
() Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: jimrtex on October 29, 2011, 02:54:09 PM CA CD's circa 1899. It seems that the bay side of San Francisco was rather densely populated doesn't it? :) () In 1890 how much electrical power would you have? It would be a healthy trek over the mountains to get to the Pacific side. Consider how unpopulated the coastal side of Marin is now. San Francisco as a large city was able to eventually populate areas that weren't really viable otherwise (see Lancaster/Palmdale) Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 29, 2011, 03:26:58 PM Here's Maryland's districts from the 70s. I had to make some guesses as to the Baltimore districts:
() () MD-01 - 1,034,491 people; 75.9% white, 17.3% black VAP; 52.5 McCain, 45.8 Obama MD-02 - 755,432 people; 64.9% white, 26.1% black VAP; 56.8 Obama, 41.1 McCain MD-03 - 305,355 people; 44.7% white, 44.3% black VAP; 76.9 Obama, 21.5 McCain MD-04 - 857,091 people; 51.0% white, 38.6% black VAP; 64.9 Obama, 33.8 McCain MD-05 - 543,985 people; 52.7% black, 21.3% white, 18.4% Hispanic VAP; 86.3 Obama, 12.7 McCain MD-06 - 1,064,327 people; 75.4% white, 13.2% black VAP; 49.7 Obama, 48.4 McCain MD-07 - 261,116 people; 71.9% black, 20.7% white VAP; 94.0 Obama, 5.0 McCain MD-08 - 951,755 people; 51.2% white, 16.3% black, 15.9% Hispanic, 14.4% Asian VAP; 71.6 Obama, 26.9 McCain Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: freepcrusher on November 03, 2011, 02:30:00 AM here's the chicago area districts from 1967-1972
() () District 1 Population 165,742 93.3% Black, 99% Obama District 2 Population 339,970 67.3% Black, 94.2% Obama District 3 Population 311,742 68.7% Black, 88.9% Obama District 4 Population 786,967 57.4% White, 66.2% Obama District 5 Population 367,718 58.7% Hispanic 77.5% Obama District 6 Population 313,054 48.1% Hispanic 41.4% Black 91.3% Obama District 7 Population 288,099 30.7% White, 30.7% Hispanic, 24.9% Black 85.6% Obama District 8 Population 406,680 51.4% Hispanic, 84.3% Obama District 9 Population 409,722 63.5% White, 79.1% Obama (Jews, maybe?) District 10 Population 447,707 56% White, 70.2% Obama District 11 Population 413,515 59.2% White, 69% Obama District 12 Population 1,156,831 69.1% White, 56.8% Obama District 13 Population 797,300 68.1% White, 63.7% Obama Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: freepcrusher on November 05, 2011, 10:21:32 PM in Detroit of the 1960s
District 1 (Conyers) 141,013 93.1% Black 98.4% Obama District 13 (Diggs) 112,724 77.6% Black, 94% Obama District 14 229,839 (Nedzi) 62.9% Black, 79.7% Obama District 15 533,290 (Ford) 71.2% White, 64.2% Obama District 16 Dingell 330,101 73.4% White, 63.1% Obama District 17 Griffiths 257,074 90.1% Black, 97.5% Obama Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: Mr.Phips on November 06, 2011, 10:06:14 PM I'd be interested in seeing the 1990's version of WI-4 (actually voted Bush in 2000). I imagine that the 1990's TX-10, UT-2, and MD-2 went for Obama. Im pretty sure the 1990's version of MD-02 went narrowly for McCain. It included the most Republican parts of Baltimore county and Harford county went 58%-39% for McCain. I think I figured out that it went 50%-48% for McCain. Title: Re: any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the Post by: freepcrusher on December 02, 2011, 09:03:31 AM here is Harris County, TX in the 1980s
() 7 83% Reagan, 77% Bush Now: Population 1,481,085 Plurality (42.9%) White 61% McCain 8 60% Reagan, 54% Bush Now: Population 1,030,161 Plurality (45.2%) Hispanic 52.1% Obama 18 72% Mondale, 74% Dukakis Now: Population 499,742 Plurality (49.7%) Hispanic 75.9% Obama 25 53% Reagan, 51% Dukakis Now: Population 696,123 Plurality (45.9%) Hispanic 58.1% Obama |