Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 31, 2011, 03:03:00 PM



Title: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 31, 2011, 03:03:00 PM
As always, enough attention to deserve its own thread. Results last time were...

Liberals 71 seats (42.2%), Tories 26 seats (31.6%) and NDP 10 seats (16.7%)

I understand that this election is unlikely to be a repeat of that one. Fire away and so on.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Insula Dei on August 31, 2011, 03:07:37 PM
How important is this election for the federal Liberals? Should we assume that a disasterous showing may be the final blow, or should we go by the general 'no real connection between the federal and the provincial level' principle?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on August 31, 2011, 03:08:14 PM
All the polls have shown the PC Party ahead, the Liberals in second, and the NDP in third.

While there is some talk about the NDP vaulting into second, the only thing that really matters is this:

Does the PC Party have enough support to form a majority?

My answer is no.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on August 31, 2011, 03:08:51 PM
How important is this election for the federal Liberals? Should we assume that a disasterous showing may be the final blow, or should we go by the general 'no real connection between the federal and the provincial level' principle?
Unimportat. During most of the 69 years the Liberals were in power in Ottawa, there was a string of unbroken Conservative governments at Queens Park (Provincially)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 31, 2011, 03:11:01 PM
Grits are repeating their federal counterparts' mistake of trying to out-left the NDP, while the NDP dashes for the centre-left. Hudak taking a leaf from the Dewey/Hillary school of electioneering.

My prediction: Hudak wins a smaller majority than Dad has now. Unsure about NDP surge. Harriscare and Raescare will be prominent.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Holmes on August 31, 2011, 03:14:30 PM
Ah yes, I'm getting ready to hear all about Rae and Harris in the weeks to come. The Liberal boogieman, however, is still in office. An easier target. :)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 31, 2011, 03:15:33 PM
Isn't it going to be a little hard for the Liberals to bring up Rae when Rae is... er... leading the federal Liberals?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Insula Dei on August 31, 2011, 03:17:42 PM
How important is this election for the federal Liberals? Should we assume that a disasterous showing may be the final blow, or should we go by the general 'no real connection between the federal and the provincial level' principle?
Unimportat. During most of the 69 years the Liberals were in power in Ottawa, there was a string of unbroken Conservative governments at Queens Park (Provincially)

But couldn't a crushing Liberal defeat be interpreted as a firm rejection of the entire Liberal project, and result in the federal party's crisis worsening even more? I'll happily grant you that there isn't a direct corelation between provincial and federal election results, but the election itself might have an impact on the general political atmosphere, or so I'd think.  


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Holmes on August 31, 2011, 03:22:52 PM
Isn't it going to be a little hard for the Liberals to bring up Rae when Rae is... er... leading the federal Liberals?

Maybe, but do you forget the Progressive Conservatives?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 31, 2011, 03:44:21 PM
Only one debate? WTF is up with that?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/adam-radwanski/ontario-should-have-more-than-one-debate-but-it-wont/article2148120/


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: DL on August 31, 2011, 03:48:51 PM
Latest poll says PC - 38%, Libs 31%, NDP 24%


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Holmes on August 31, 2011, 05:08:29 PM
I wonder if Ford's new waterfront pet projects will be an issue in Toronto. He says he can get private sector funding for it, but who is he fooling? Joke mayor.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 31, 2011, 07:40:17 PM
Rae wants to campaign with McGuinty. That'll make a very nice PC attack ad.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: RodPresident on August 31, 2011, 07:47:26 PM
This election is going to be a Tory Majority or a hung parliament. I don't exclude possibility of NDP winning more seats than Grits, even with a 3rd place in PV due to high voting in urban constituencies.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: MaxQue on August 31, 2011, 07:50:41 PM
Rae wants to campaign with McGuinty. That'll make a very nice PC attack ad.

I won't complain about it. NDPers hates Rae, too.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 31, 2011, 07:54:43 PM
Not so much for his defection as destroying their chances of usurping the Grits.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 31, 2011, 10:27:45 PM
Should be fun. Im going to be getting paid to do some database for the Ottawa Centre campaign. Ive never been paid during a campaign before, and Ive never worked on a winning campaign before (except phoning for Dewar in the summer of 2005)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: lilTommy on September 01, 2011, 07:38:31 AM
Working on a winning campaign is incredible! I worked on Cheri Di Novo's by-election win and it brought tears to my eyes... especially since it got so nasty.
I live in Tor-Danforth so my last couple have all been winning, you end up (if you do the old door to door) running into a lot of generally supporters who like to talk, and ask questions. Its also been easier to sway liberals here.
But I've worked on my fair share of losing ones (Peterborough 03, Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry 99) and they can be trying for sure.
In October i plan on spreading my time around all the DT riding's, but especially in Davenport and YSW since we can almost taste those.
Lets hope the old adage "Liberal support is a wile wide and an inch deep" rings true, that could leave many riding's up for grabs.
The federal election (i hope) taught the party where we should be targeting our resources for strategic wins (North, TO, urban core riding's like OttC, Windsor W, and some rural riding's mostly in SWontario)
Liberals are desperate and the Tories are going to run a Ford Tax-saver campaign... I like the NDP's stance at staying positive and presenting policy, this is going to be our best chance election.
The three parties were on CP24 LeDrew last night... only caught the last 5 mins... but Gilles Bisson(NDP), Elizabeth Witmer(PC) and Greg Sorbara(LIB) were on... anyone catch?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: lilTommy on September 01, 2011, 08:00:56 AM
Another poll.... http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/01/liberals-narrow-pc-lead-in-ontario-poll/

Tories - 35%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 26%



Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Hash on September 01, 2011, 08:09:47 AM
Even winning on a losing campaign is cool, though election night is usually depressing. It's so fun going out there and doing door to door and meeting so many people. Thankfully here everybody's quite nice and some are happy to talk to you (only a handful politely tell you to go away and an teeny minority shut the door in your face).


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 01, 2011, 08:16:36 AM
Another poll.... http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/01/liberals-narrow-pc-lead-in-ontario-poll/

Tories - 35%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 26%



So it's gonna be a three-way race. This won't be good for McGuinty once the voters catch on...


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: lilTommy on September 01, 2011, 08:25:37 AM
Even winning on a losing campaign is cool, though election night is usually depressing. It's so fun going out there and doing door to door and meeting so many people. Thankfully here everybody's quite nice and some are happy to talk to you (only a handful politely tell you to go away and an teeny minority shut the door in your face).

Where is "here" for you?
Even losing campaigns i had a great time, their more like a family gathering and you get to be more "liberal" with the drinks :P
the first campaign i worked in SDG in 99... i got spat on at the door... old rural eastern ontario wasn't (and to some degree still is) is not NDP friendly :P


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 01, 2011, 04:58:48 PM
Another poll.... http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/01/liberals-narrow-pc-lead-in-ontario-poll/

Tories - 35%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 26%



Interesting how the Toronto Star poll said it was a 3 way race with the NDP further behind, while the National Post had the NDP doing better, but completely ignores them in the headline and says it's not a 3 way race yet. (although, those numbers are suggest otherwise)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Holmes on September 01, 2011, 05:35:49 PM
First of all,


()

Second of all, maybe more of the left-leaning electorate isn't seeing the Liberals as the only viable alternative to the Progressive Conservatives anymore, and some are switching to NDP. Or maybe that whole process is already done, and the NDP numbers will regress or stabilize, with the PC and Liberal numbers fluctuating more. Who knows? Should be an exciting few weeks, anyway!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 01, 2011, 06:13:37 PM
Expect a new projection this evening based on the new poll.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Smid on September 01, 2011, 06:53:02 PM
Expect a new projection this evening based on the new poll.

Good! I was thinking about that on the tram this morning on my way to work, wondering when the next one will be up.

As for campaigns, I think I've probably been on more losing ones than winning ones - I often go to either marginal electorates or electorates where our presence is particularly weak and the party needs members on the ground to assist with the campaign. I've spent many an election day at booths where we might hope to get a third of the vote (bearing in mind we have only two major parties here).


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: DL on September 01, 2011, 09:57:22 PM
Another poll.... http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/01/liberals-narrow-pc-lead-in-ontario-poll/

Tories - 35%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 26%



Interesting how the Toronto Star poll said it was a 3 way race with the NDP further behind, while the National Post had the NDP doing better, but completely ignores them in the headline and says it's not a 3 way race yet. (although, those numbers are suggest otherwise)

Especially given that according to this poll the Liberals are closer to coming in third than they are to coming in first!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on September 01, 2011, 10:35:49 PM
How important is this election for the federal Liberals? Should we assume that a disasterous showing may be the final blow, or should we go by the general 'no real connection between the federal and the provincial level' principle?

Canada's a very odd country politically, particularly in terms of the federal political structure. Voters treat federal elections as a referendum on provincial politics far more than the reverse.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 02, 2011, 02:35:36 AM
http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/ontario-election-2011-prediction.html

Tory minority projected with the NDP at 19 seats.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 04, 2011, 06:58:11 PM
Grits to unveil their platform tomorrow. "Four More Years" probably summarizes it in a sentence.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ontariovotes2011/story/2011/09/02/liberals-unveil-platform.html


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 04, 2011, 09:58:02 PM
Dad: There is no deficit.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ontario/dalton-mcguinty-makes-electoral-pitch-to-women-seniors-new-canadians/article2153430/



Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 05, 2011, 09:44:32 PM
New Nanos poll:

PC: 35 (-7)
Lib: 32 (-6)
NDP: 23 (+7)
Grn: 4 (+1)

Im not sure where the other 6% went ???

Undecideds are at 8% (down 8%)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 05, 2011, 10:08:40 PM
Remember folks, so long as "Dad" is in second place, every insult against him is one step closer to a Hudak government.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 05, 2011, 11:06:11 PM
Much like the Harper minority governments, a Hudak minority government I can handle, and *prefer* over a McGuinty government. I just hope it doesn't lead to a Hudak majority 5 years from now, but rather an NDP government.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 05, 2011, 11:26:55 PM
Sure, if you want to kill public transit in the process.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Smid on September 05, 2011, 11:38:46 PM
Earl, when shall be the next prediction update? Will it be based on this Nanos poll, or will you wait for another poll or two to be released, and then average the results?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 06, 2011, 07:30:40 AM
Earl, when shall be the next prediction update? Will it be based on this Nanos poll, or will you wait for another poll or two to be released, and then average the results?

Im going to wait for more polls to come in. They will begin to flow in, and I don't have the time to do a projection every day, unfortunately. (I'm not using any computer programs, each riding is done individually)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: lilTommy on September 06, 2011, 07:46:00 AM
Earl, when shall be the next prediction update? Will it be based on this Nanos poll, or will you wait for another poll or two to be released, and then average the results?

Im going to wait for more polls to come in. They will begin to flow in, and I don't have the time to do a projection every day, unfortunately. (I'm not using any computer programs, each riding is done individually)

GAH! so makes sense to have a handfull of polls then eh... reminds me of the "good old days", something to be said about putting all the effort in, usually the results are more accurate? we shall see...

http://www.facebook.com/#!/event.php?eid=278377288845954 - Sorry i could only find the Facebook link but the NDP will launch their campaign in Thunder bay *cough* targets! *cough* from this, the NDP WILL be focusing on the winning over those northern seats they hold federally, and they have a good shot at many of them.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Hash on September 06, 2011, 08:14:16 AM
Much like the Harper minority governments, a Hudak minority government I can handle, and *prefer* over a McGuinty government. I just hope it doesn't lead to a Hudak majority 5 years from now, but rather an NDP government.

Disgusting but hardly surprising.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: MaxQue on September 06, 2011, 10:40:46 AM
I wish to say than I don't approve of the "Anybody but Liberals" thinking of Earl, even if I understand his reasons.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 06, 2011, 11:21:31 AM
When I do go and vote for McIdiot, I plan to literally hold my nose.

Either that or, if I'm certain that the Grits will hold on to this riding, I might spoil my ballot.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: minionofmidas on September 06, 2011, 11:27:53 AM
Somebody put the date of this election into the subject header or at least the opening post, or I'll have this man

()

raised from the dead to abduct him.

()


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 06, 2011, 04:27:59 PM
Oh Lewis, that's what my blog is for!

Note to the haters: I still prefer a Liberal majority over a Tory majority, obviously.  With a Tory minority, we could see a Liberal+NDP coalition developed which is almost the best option!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Franzl on September 06, 2011, 04:32:28 PM
Sure, if you want to kill public transit in the process.

Is that what Conservatives are proposing?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011
Post by: Holmes on September 06, 2011, 05:58:11 PM
Sure, if you want to kill public transit in the process.

Is that what Conservatives are proposing?

A PC government would certainly help and enable Ford into killing transit in Toronto even more.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on September 06, 2011, 06:18:03 PM
What do you guys think the impact will be of McGuinty's $10,000 tax credit for hiring an immigrant.  While one can argue whether it is a good or bad policy, this almost seems like a John Tory moment.  If I were McGuinty I would find a way to get this off the front page ASAP before the Tories can capitalize on it.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 06, 2011, 06:33:06 PM
What do you guys think the impact will be of McGuinty's $10,000 tax credit for hiring an immigrant.  While one can argue whether it is a good or bad policy, this almost seems like a John Tory moment.  If I were McGuinty I would find a way to get this off the front page ASAP before the Tories can capitalize on it.

I think Walkom summed it up well in his column today, even if I disagree with his conclusion. Of all the things to criticize in McGuinty's record, this would be pretty far down my list.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 07, 2011, 07:21:03 AM
I think that was a wrong move made with good intensions... but in the end will benefit the NDP. Why? the NDP has a similar plan BUT isn't specific on immigrants but rather ALL ontarians...

From their policy book --> Reward Job creators... create a 10% tax credit for companies that invest in building, machinery and equipment.... create a training tax credit for companies to help their staff upgrade skills. Couple that with the NDP's plan to reduce the small business tax rate to 4%

And how will the liberals attach the NDP... with a video of the NDP van driving close (to me looks like more than a meter away but heck who knows!) to a cyclist. To me that was pathetic! It looks like the Liberals are desperate to hold even Toronto Centre!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 07, 2011, 11:31:53 AM
I think that was a wrong move made with good intensions... but in the end will benefit the NDP. Why? the NDP has a similar plan BUT isn't specific on immigrants but rather ALL ontarians...

From their policy book --> Reward Job creators... create a 10% tax credit for companies that invest in building, machinery and equipment.... create a training tax credit for companies to help their staff upgrade skills. Couple that with the NDP's plan to reduce the small business tax rate to 4%

And how will the liberals attach the NDP... with a video of the NDP van driving close (to me looks like more than a meter away but heck who knows!) to a cyclist. To me that was pathetic! It looks like the Liberals are desperate to hold even Toronto Centre!

If you believe 308, McGuinty might lose his own riding. Hopefully Dad's done.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 07, 2011, 11:55:45 AM
... In this case i don't believe 308, I believe McGuinty will still win Ottawa South. His brother held it federally in May after their disaster of a showing so i think the "family" have some personal strength there.

In 95, when the NDP was decimated, Rae still held on to York South.

NOW i could be wrong... In May Ignatieff lost Etobicoke-Lakeshore and in 90, Liberal Premier Peterson lost his London Centre seat so it could happen. I really believe that many seats are going to come down to local candidates and local conditions, especially since there will be so many ridings in play


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 07, 2011, 07:13:52 PM
6th October??? what is this, Britain?!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 07, 2011, 07:34:06 PM
I think that was a wrong move made with good intensions... but in the end will benefit the NDP. Why? the NDP has a similar plan BUT isn't specific on immigrants but rather ALL ontarians...

From their policy book --> Reward Job creators... create a 10% tax credit for companies that invest in building, machinery and equipment.... create a training tax credit for companies to help their staff upgrade skills. Couple that with the NDP's plan to reduce the small business tax rate to 4%

And how will the liberals attach the NDP... with a video of the NDP van driving close (to me looks like more than a meter away but heck who knows!) to a cyclist. To me that was pathetic! It looks like the Liberals are desperate to hold even Toronto Centre!

If you believe 308, McGuinty might lose his own riding. Hopefully Dad's done.

Not a chance. Check my site!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on September 08, 2011, 12:38:28 AM
I think that was a wrong move made with good intensions... but in the end will benefit the NDP. Why? the NDP has a similar plan BUT isn't specific on immigrants but rather ALL ontarians...

From their policy book --> Reward Job creators... create a 10% tax credit for companies that invest in building, machinery and equipment.... create a training tax credit for companies to help their staff upgrade skills. Couple that with the NDP's plan to reduce the small business tax rate to 4%

And how will the liberals attach the NDP... with a video of the NDP van driving close (to me looks like more than a meter away but heck who knows!) to a cyclist. To me that was pathetic! It looks like the Liberals are desperate to hold even Toronto Centre!

If you believe 308, McGuinty might lose his own riding. Hopefully Dad's done.

308's methodology is rather suspect.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 08, 2011, 01:01:15 AM
Everyone's methodology is suspect unless they can prove it works by using previous elections.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 08, 2011, 01:12:14 AM
Everyone's methodology is suspect unless they can prove it works by using previous elections.

My past Ontario predictions speak for themselves (last provincial and last 2 federal elections I got a better % of seats correct than electionpredictions.org)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 08, 2011, 10:06:16 AM
lololol: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ontariovotes2011/story/2011/09/07/ontario-ndp-weisleder-dropped.html


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: minionofmidas on September 08, 2011, 10:17:58 AM
That sort of thing in the middle of a campaign is never good news. It might be damage control, but it's not good news.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 08, 2011, 11:06:11 AM
That sort of thing in the middle of a campaign is never good news. It might be damage control, but it's not good news.

What? It's great news. I guess you don't know who Barry Weisleder is! We want to distance the hell out of him.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on September 08, 2011, 11:16:59 AM
Isn't he the guy which the Socialist Caucus ran in 2003 federal leadership election?
Who was moronic enough to green-light his candidacy?!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 08, 2011, 11:39:08 AM
Hey, there was mention of Gilles. Yay.

Not that the NDP has a shot in Thornhill or any surrounding ridings. *shrug*


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 08, 2011, 12:00:39 PM
True, Thornhill is nowhere near a Suburban target but hey, who thunk Bramalea-Gore-Malton would be.

Barry is seen to be more into the race for personal reasons and not for party reasons. If you can't push party policy vs your own personal one then you shouldn't be a candidate. by the sounds of it he won due to a SC ally being the president of thornhill. I know both Simon Strelchek (sp) and Barry... both are wanting.

and like the NDP wants... moving on, they introduced their Northern platform...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-election/horwath-woos-northern-ontario-with-pledge-to-lift-flagging-economy/article2157957/


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 08, 2011, 05:42:17 PM
Everyone's methodology is suspect unless they can prove it works by using previous elections.

My past Ontario predictions speak for themselves (last provincial and last 2 federal elections I got a better % of seats correct than electionpredictions.org)

A dog with a pen could beat EP


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 08, 2011, 08:20:28 PM
Everyone's methodology is suspect unless they can prove it works by using previous elections.

My past Ontario predictions speak for themselves (last provincial and last 2 federal elections I got a better % of seats correct than electionpredictions.org)

A dog with a pen could beat EP

Perhaps in the last federal election.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 08, 2011, 08:26:01 PM
Harris-Decima poll with bizarre numbers:

Lib: 40
PC: 29 (!)
NDP: 24
Grn: 6

Does not compute.  I am definitely holding off on making another Ontario prediction for a while.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: adma on September 08, 2011, 09:06:03 PM
True, Thornhill is nowhere near a Suburban target but hey, who thunk Bramalea-Gore-Malton would be.

On demographic grounds, B-G-M was more plausible--not unlike the BCNDP's suburban strongholds.  And for whatever reason, Thornhill's long been the rimshot bottom of the barrel among Ontario NDP prospects--if they were to target it, they'd need an Erin Shapero or something.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on September 08, 2011, 09:21:18 PM
Harris-Decima poll with bizarre numbers:

Lib: 40
PC: 29 (!)
NDP: 24
Grn: 6

Does not compute.  I am definitely holding off on making another Ontario prediction for a while.

Well, the numbers are very normal, to me. It is the party labels which are bizarre.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 08, 2011, 09:36:03 PM
Harris-Decima poll with bizarre numbers:

Lib: 40
PC: 29 (!)
NDP: 24
Grn: 6

Does not compute.  I am definitely holding off on making another Ontario prediction for a while.

Well, the numbers are very normal, to me. It is the party labels which are bizarre.

At this point, I'd be just as surprised if the numbers were switched.

I do get the sense that a lot of people think Hudak=Harris, but that would mean the NDP numbers should be lower. I do know from my campaign job though that a lot of people are scared of vote splitting. (Incredibly odd considering the Tories have no shot in Ottawa Centre... I just want to smack some people...)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: adma on September 09, 2011, 07:06:09 AM
Anyone notice that (momentarily, at least) the 2007 poll-by-polls and poll maps on the Elections Ontario site are down?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 09, 2011, 07:09:18 AM
well this makes sense if they polled Ottawa South maybe :P But this sounds like a fluke to me... in the Globe they even say so!

"“There’s always some possibility that you get a rogue poll,” pollster Bruce Anderson said on Thursday evening. “We haven’t seen this kind of reversal of fortune before now.” "

Still the Liberals are trying to run a rigid campaign *cough a-la-Harper style cough*, they've had good tv ads, but already holes have been blown in their Tuition Grant (i get so mad when they say reduction) and immigrant job grants, its still a tight race


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: minionofmidas on September 09, 2011, 08:43:26 AM
That sort of thing in the middle of a campaign is never good news. It might be damage control, but it's not good news.

What? It's great news. I guess you don't know who Barry Weisleder is! We want to distance the hell out of him.
I am dimly aware. But there's a difference between him not selected anywhere, and him being deselected by some hard-to-judge bureaucratic process in the middle of the campaign. The latter probably is a better reminder of his existence than if he just silently ran in some unwinnable riding.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 09, 2011, 09:21:56 AM
That sort of thing in the middle of a campaign is never good news. It might be damage control, but it's not good news.

What? It's great news. I guess you don't know who Barry Weisleder is! We want to distance the hell out of him.
I am dimly aware. But there's a difference between him not selected anywhere, and him being deselected by some hard-to-judge bureaucratic process in the middle of the campaign. The latter probably is a better reminder of his existence than if he just silently ran in some unwinnable riding.

He should have been vetted prior to being nominated. "Sorry, your views don't match those of the party, so you can't run."


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2011, 01:35:47 PM
The easiest solution would be to just expel him, obviously.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on September 09, 2011, 01:41:24 PM
The easiest solution would be to just expel him, obviously.

Keep your friends close of you, and your ennemies even closer.
If expelled, he would just create his own party.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 09, 2011, 02:58:24 PM
The easiest solution would be to just expel him, obviously.

Keep your friends close of you, and your ennemies even closer.
If expelled, he would just create his own party.

I think we've been trying to get him to do that. It's not like he has many followers.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 12, 2011, 08:18:08 AM
There is the recently establishe Socialist Party of Ontario... i think its a Michael Laxer creation? but i honestly think he'd fit in better with that party.

But i do think the SC (socialist Caucus) has a place in the NDP (hell in College i was mildy active in the caucus) i think they bring about ideas, its just maybe the way its done. Its the job of the party to convert far left policies to workable ones.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 12, 2011, 05:39:07 PM
A couple more poll shockers out of Ontario today:
 
Ipsos says Libs 38%, PCs 37%, NDP 24%
Nanos says Libs 38%, PCs 35%, NDP 24%
 
…looks like Hudak is flopping big-time and this could be the 1985 Lib/NDP accord all over again!

Its also worth noting that the conventional wisdom was that the only way the Liberals could win was by suppressing the NDP vote - yet they seem to be moving ahead on their own despite NDP support being at a 18 year high!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 12, 2011, 07:51:05 PM
NDP vote is down slightly, but very interesting.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: adma on September 12, 2011, 08:13:05 PM
Well, it's a more "normal" figure than that 40-29 "did they get the parties reversed?!?" poll.  (And IIRC, did some polls put John Tory similarly close-behind at a similar stage of the 2007 campaign?)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on September 12, 2011, 10:14:26 PM
If McGuinty manages to win again, that would ashaming for PC.

They were leading in 2007, Tory managed to lose it.
If that happen again in 2011, they ought to select a better leader for their own sake. Or taking courses with Federal Conservatives, which are able to win Ontario.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 12, 2011, 10:15:02 PM
NDP vote is down slightly, but very interesting.

How is the NDP vote "down slightly" the previous Ipsos poll had the NDP at 23% and this latest one says 24% and the last Nanos poll had the NDP at 22.8% and this one says 24.3%. So that is UP slightly in both polls.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 12, 2011, 11:09:34 PM
Well, Im comparing polling firms. The NDP was at 26% in one poll last week.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 13, 2011, 12:52:27 AM
Another Ontario projection!

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/ontario-election-2011-prediction_13.html

Liberals on the cusp of a majority! :o


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on September 13, 2011, 02:21:26 AM
Great work, mate!

My one thought on it is that in the two Northern Ontario seats you've classed as too close to call, the Greens vote last election were in the order of 5% or 5.5%, so I think that even if the Green vote is flowing to the Liberals, it may not be enough in those Northern ridings to prevent the NDP gaining those two seats. Mind you, I understand that you're always careful to not over-estimate your party's chances.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 13, 2011, 08:28:20 AM
For the NDP, its really going to be a riding by riding fight then...
a) NDP/Tory battle ridings, to pitch the NDP as the alternative to the tories, pushing a similar message that came across in May which worked rather well (so Essex, Oshawa), trying to attract as much of the small and big L Liberal vote.
b) NDP/Liberal battles, to fight the strategic voting anti-hudak/harris message, voting NDP is not wasted and your vote will matter in electing a NewDem (ala May), it will be about the local candidates too; the NDP being the party that will be pushing for a progressive government as 8years of liberal government has proven to be a failure (so YSW, Davenport, OC, WW, The Northern ridings).
c) Three way fights, The battle is going to be very local especially, very candidate oriented... BGM, SSW, SRR (maybe SautSM as well)

With the Liberals up, its a bigger fight a head but the NDP is still strong so this year it dosen't seem like the Strategic voting is working as much as the Liberals would like... they seem to be attacking every NDP announcement with "it will cost jobs..."


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 13, 2011, 10:40:39 AM
I am convinced that the Liberals are telling people in Ottawa Centre not to vote NDP because it might split the vote for the Tories to win. A lot of people who voted for Dewar are going to vote Liberal because they fear vote splitting.  Something fishy is up, because unless they were told otherwise, a quick google search will tell them the Tories dont have a snowball's chance of hell of winning this riding.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on September 13, 2011, 10:47:53 AM
I am convinced that the Liberals are telling people in Ottawa Centre not to vote NDP because it might split the vote for the Tories to win. A lot of people who voted for Dewar are going to vote Liberal because they fear vote splitting.  Something fishy is up, because unless they were told otherwise, a quick google search will tell them the Tories dont have a snowball's chance of hell of winning this riding.

Surprise!
It is the only thing than centrist parties are able to do. Scaring left-wing voters about the right and scaring right-wing voters about the right.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 13, 2011, 10:51:05 AM
I am convinced that the Liberals are telling people in Ottawa Centre not to vote NDP because it might split the vote for the Tories to win. A lot of people who voted for Dewar are going to vote Liberal because they fear vote splitting.  Something fishy is up, because unless they were told otherwise, a quick google search will tell them the Tories dont have a snowball's chance of hell of winning this riding.

How shocking that canvassers from a party with 'Liberal' in the title would do such a thing. Shocked, shocked, shocked, I am.

Tell them it's a lie and (if you need to) bring the results of the federal election with you...


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 13, 2011, 11:03:45 AM
Regional Breakdowns!!
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5330

LOVE that they broke the "GTA" up, combined that drastically skus the reality of things...

GTA/Hamilton-Niagara (905): Lib 41%, PCs 38% NDP 20%
Toronto (416): Lib 40%, NDP 31% PCs 28%
Central: PC 40%, Lib 35%, NDP 24%, Green 1%
Eastern: PC 46%, Lib 36%, NDP 17%, Green 1%
Southwestern: PC 40%, Lib 34%, NDP 25%
Northern: Lib 44%, NDP 30%, PC 23%, Green 2% - on Rabble they say the sample was 44 people! so take this with a grain of salt (not sure where to find sample sizes)

Its a complete lie! in the "old city of TO" the tories have almost zero chance of winning anywhere... the tories have winnable ridings in the "old burbs" of Etobicoke/NY/Scarborough... and in Scarborough those are mostly now three way races. The same can be said for Windsor and Hamilton, the Tories are just not a factor anymore.



Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 13, 2011, 02:32:09 PM
The full tables with sample sizes are there as a link on the Ipsos page and they have the sample sizes. 905 does NOT include Hamilton it is just the 905 suburbs of the GTA. Hamilton/Niagara is considered "central"


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 13, 2011, 02:38:24 PM
The full tables with sample sizes are there as a link on the Ipsos page and they have the sample sizes. 905 does NOT include Hamilton it is just the 905 suburbs of the GTA. Hamilton/Niagara is considered "central"

Ok thanks!... the NDP at 20% in the 905... like Mississauga/Brampton/York/Durham! that gives me even more hope of at least one pickup if the NDP can concentrate (i'm thinking BGM here or Oshawa, but BGM would be a nicer win)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 13, 2011, 03:12:27 PM
Maybe, but Oshawa makes more sense. Labour city and all. Don't see it happening though.

lol@ Liberals at 44% in Northern Ontario. That tickles me. Did they count everything north of Barrie as Northern or something? Still, that would probably give tied PC/NDP numbers. Garbage.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 13, 2011, 09:19:43 PM
Just when we thought the Liberals were winning Abacus releases their first poll:

PC: 41
Lib: 32
NDP: 20
Grn: 6
 
But then again, Abacus is the official pollster for the Sun, so I there may be bias ??? It's hard to believe their CEO used to be a New Democrat.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 14, 2011, 07:41:47 AM
A new poll of 1,000 voters in the City of Toronto by Forum says Liberals 39%, NDP 30% and PCs at a catastrophic 24%. I don't know what the popular vote was in Toronto in the '07 ON election but I suspect that this is a pretty major NDP increase.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 14, 2011, 08:00:58 AM
A new poll of 1,000 voters in the City of Toronto by Forum says Liberals 39%, NDP 30% and PCs at a catastrophic 24%. I don't know what the popular vote was in Toronto in the '07 ON election but I suspect that this is a pretty major NDP increase.

For the NDP, its double! at OntarioVotes2007 - http://www.cbc.ca/ontariovotes2007/ridings/#toronto

2007 seats  %             2011 Forum   2011 Ipsos-Reid
LIB -  33 - 45.64%         39%                     40%
PC -  7 -  29.85%           24%                     28%
NDP -  4 - 15.43%          30%                     31%
GRN  - 0 - 7.58%

So the clear losers so far in Toronto are indeed the Liberals, who if either poll pans out are 5-6% lower this time around. The tories are also down about the same in Forum, but pretty much unchanged in IR. The NDP has doubled since 2007... i'd say some of that will be increased strength in the 4 they hold but YSW & Davenport look to be wins; SSW & even SRR might be in play with these numbers too.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 14, 2011, 08:07:24 AM
Those are the GTA wide popular vote numbers you got from the CBC site. The numbers for Toronto itself in '07 were L 45%, PCs 24% and NDP 22% and Greens 8%. so the forum poll suggests the NDP is up 8 points, Libs down 6 and PCs flat as a pancake


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 14, 2011, 08:29:03 AM
Ahhh sorry, i grabbed the wrong numbers... but i think the message is still out there... Liberals down; NDP up; tories flat.

Sorry, early, coffee :P


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 14, 2011, 04:46:38 PM
What did the NDP get federally in Toronto? And the other parties?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 14, 2011, 10:21:09 PM
I did a slightly crude estimate of the popular vote in Toronto in the federal election and it came out to Liberals 35%, Tories 32% and NDP 29% - so the NDP vote is if anything slightly higher in the provincial polls while the Tory vote is a lot lower and the Liberals somewhat higher. Almost all the seats the federal Tories won in Toronto were won by very narrow margins - so my prediction is that if these Toronto polls are right - The NDP gains two seats for sure and probably a third somewhere for a total of seven in Toronto while the get the other 15 unless the Tories manage to grab one or two max.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 15, 2011, 07:42:55 AM
I did a slightly crude estimate of the popular vote in Toronto in the federal election and it came out to Liberals 35%, Tories 32% and NDP 29% - so the NDP vote is if anything slightly higher in the provincial polls while the Tory vote is a lot lower and the Liberals somewhat higher. Almost all the seats the federal Tories won in Toronto were won by very narrow margins - so my prediction is that if these Toronto polls are right - The NDP gains two seats for sure and probably a third somewhere for a total of seven in Toronto while the get the other 15 unless the Tories manage to grab one or two max.

I was on Rabble, and i saw these numbers:
Seats: Cons 9, NDP 8, Lib 6
Popular Vote: Lib 35%, Cons 31%, NDP 30%, Green 3%, Others 0%
Polling Divisions: NDP 35%, Lib 33%, Cons 32%, Green 0%

I don't think it changes what you said, 2 solid for the NDP (YSW, Davenport) and another battle, probably SSW, but i'd rather see the NDP win SRR.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 15, 2011, 11:11:21 PM
Interesting!

By the way, I got my first ever robo poll call today. Not sure who it was for. But whoever it was, the pronounced our candidate's name wrong.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on September 16, 2011, 07:36:11 AM
Canvassing tomorrow!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 16, 2011, 03:33:05 PM

Hopefully in Orleans and nowhere close to here! ;)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 16, 2011, 04:03:08 PM
I really cant wait for 6th october. I will be doing maths of course to look at the results as they come out. I will also use the lift in my building to get to the lorry so that I can do something else british :D :D LOL


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 17, 2011, 08:11:08 AM
New Angus Reid online poll of 1,000 in today's Toronto Star shows NDP surge is real. Numbers in brackets show change from their previous poll over a week ago:

PC 36% (down 2)
Libs 32% (up 1)
NDP 26% (up 2)
green 6% (down 1)

The poll also has the NDP actually LEADING in Toronto with 35% to LIB 34% and Tories a distant third. Seems unbelievable but then no one believed the polls showing the NDP surge in Quebec. Seems to me that the ONDP is seriously cutting into the "anti-Liberal" vote that Hudak thought was all going to go for him.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 17, 2011, 10:06:39 AM
Interesting. Maybe the Tories are in the lead again? I'd like to see some more polls before making another projection.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 17, 2011, 11:47:25 AM

Anything to deny Rocco Rossi! :) I wanna see him go down in flames, but, I'm sure his race will be rather close.

The poll shows Horwath with the best numbers, so I can't wait until the debate. And screw McGuinty for declining a northern debate. He's done there.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 17, 2011, 02:56:43 PM
Northern Ontario should have a devolved assembly like Scotland :)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 17, 2011, 03:56:10 PM
Not in a million years if it gives the region some autonomy. The region is vast, rich full of resources, but neglected and empty (relative to the south). That's why it's so easy for a government to control the north, and do what it wants with it, with hardly any repercussion. The region is just full of middle-to-low working class families whose jobs revolve around those resources (and even those jobs are being exported), and sh**tty retail or fast-food jobs. So that's why the north usually votes as a block.

Sure, Horwath promised a special Northern Ontario committee in Queen's Park if she's elected, and that's nice, and the NDP is really the only party that cares the most for the region, but they could jump ship to another party at any moment. The fact that the NDP hasn't been in government provincially for so long, or federally ever, really helps them the most in the north.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 17, 2011, 04:34:43 PM
It definitely should be its own province. It gets its own Brier team for pete's sake!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 17, 2011, 06:04:16 PM
It definitely should be its own province. It gets its own Brier team for pete's sake!
Aye
North of 47... or was it 44? like on Krago's map


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 18, 2011, 10:54:51 PM
Yet another Ontario poll shocker - this time from Leger:

PC - 36% (up 4 from last election)
Liberals - 33% (down 9)
NDP - 29% (up 12 !!)
that leaves 2% for Greens and other which would be down 7% from 2007.

I'm an NDP supporter but I'm actually starting to get scared that if this trend continues we might actually win this thing and while the ONDP has some good people - they are NOT ready to be the government just yet. This is starting to bring back memories of 1990!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on September 18, 2011, 11:02:06 PM
2011, realignment year in Canadian politics?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 18, 2011, 11:13:51 PM
Imagine if the NDP leapfrogs over the Liberals in both Ontario AND Newfoundland!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 19, 2011, 02:06:55 AM
I don't really care whether NDP or Liberals win this, what worries me is to see the Tories still ahead.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: minionofmidas on September 19, 2011, 04:48:32 AM
What would be a likely seat distribution if the three parties poll equal shares?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 19, 2011, 05:45:13 AM
What would be a likely seat distribution if the three parties poll equal shares?
Easy to find out. Go here
http://esm.ubc.ca/forecast.php
and here
http://esm.ubc.ca/ON11/forecast.php
play around by setting the parties, except the NDP, below 1.0 until they all balance (0.4, and 0.53 should do it) Eliminate the greens for good measure by setting them at 0
and you get your answer
Lib - 46
PC - 32
NDP -29



Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: minionofmidas on September 19, 2011, 05:48:45 AM
Uniform swings of that sort aren't really much more likely or sophisticated than of the other type... but I guess I'd take that result. :)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 19, 2011, 06:14:57 AM
Actually by reducing the number and not applying any swing you don't get a uniform swing at all.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 19, 2011, 06:29:18 AM
Imagine if the NDP leapfrogs over the Liberals in both Ontario AND Newfoundland!

Well, in Newfoundland's case, that would mean 2-3 NDP seats to 1-2 Liberals seats? So not exactly a strong opposition mandate. :P

(Leger also says 39% Con, 33% NDP, 17% Liberal, and 6% Green federally, with Bloc at 23% in Quebec)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: minionofmidas on September 19, 2011, 06:31:54 AM
Actually by reducing the number and not applying any swing you don't get a uniform swing at all.
Sure. It's just following a different rule, but it's still regular. :)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 19, 2011, 06:49:59 AM
Actually by reducing the number and not applying any swing you don't get a uniform swing at all.
Sure. It's just following a different rule, but it's still regular. :)
How so?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 19, 2011, 07:57:13 AM
I don't really care whether NDP or Liberals win this, what worries me is to see the Tories still ahead.

I think Leger showed regional breakdowns right? and in Ontario just like Canada regional votes will decide seats? with these numbers it still looks like there will be no majority in any instance but are we getting a sense of the distribution of seats yet with those two polls?

The also said the NDP wasn't prepared to be the Official Opposition and so far, they've done a pretty darn good job up there.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 19, 2011, 04:57:07 PM
Looks like a very weak Tory minority, but I'll wait for one more poll before doing another projection.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 19, 2011, 11:47:26 PM
Leger poll crosstabs actually show the NDP at just 26%: http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/119193ENG.pdf

And oddly enough, the NDP is at 32% in Eastern Ontario which doesn't make any sense, unless they include part of northern Ontario in that.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: bgwah on September 20, 2011, 12:00:15 AM
Would the Liberals and NDP form a coalition government if necessary? (Sorry I haven't read the entire thread)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on September 20, 2011, 03:33:23 AM
Would the Liberals and NDP form a coalition government if necessary? (Sorry I haven't read the entire thread)

It won't be necessary; it's common enough in Ontario for no party to have a majority, and there have been no coalitions yet. A Liberal minority government supported by the NDP is certainly possible, although the Liberals would probably have to finish ahead of the Tories for it to be politically feasible.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 20, 2011, 10:53:55 AM
Would the Liberals and NDP form a coalition government if necessary? (Sorry I haven't read the entire thread)

It won't be necessary; it's common enough in Ontario for no party to have a majority, and there have been no coalitions yet. A Liberal minority government supported by the NDP is certainly possible, although the Liberals would probably have to finish ahead of the Tories for it to be politically feasible.

Not necessarily, in 1985 the PCs won; yet the NDP and Liberals worked out the "Accord", a rough unofficial support... the NDP would support the Liberals for 2years. That basically last 3years then the Liberals won the next election. I doubt the NDP would enter into anything like that again.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 20, 2011, 11:06:04 AM
Keep in mind that the incumbent Premier is technically still the Premier until he or she either resigns of loses a confidence vote. If we hypothetically had 43 Tories, 41 Liberals and 23 New Dems - McGuinty would probably present a Throne Speech and dare the NDP to vote it down and install Hudak.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on September 20, 2011, 06:16:08 PM
Would the Liberals and NDP form a coalition government if necessary? (Sorry I haven't read the entire thread)

It won't be necessary; it's common enough in Ontario for no party to have a majority, and there have been no coalitions yet. A Liberal minority government supported by the NDP is certainly possible, although the Liberals would probably have to finish ahead of the Tories for it to be politically feasible.

Not necessarily, in 1985 the PCs won; yet the NDP and Liberals worked out the "Accord", a rough unofficial support... the NDP would support the Liberals for 2years. That basically last 3years then the Liberals won the next election. I doubt the NDP would enter into anything like that again.

Well, PC was in power since 42 years, so, if the PC had a minority, it was still a mandate for change.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 20, 2011, 06:56:59 PM
Check out the tables on the right side in this just released Ipsos online poll of 8,000 people in Ontario. They don't actually ask how people will vote, but they do ask people what their most important issue is and then which party will do the best job of dealing with whatever issue they feel is most important. They get Libs and PCs dead even at 36% each and the NDP at 25% - so that would mean back to the 1985 scenario! (I think we can assume that almost everyone will vote for the party that they think will do the best job on their most important issue).

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5340


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on September 22, 2011, 01:08:01 AM
Would the Liberals and NDP form a coalition government if necessary? (Sorry I haven't read the entire thread)

It won't be necessary; it's common enough in Ontario for no party to have a majority, and there have been no coalitions yet. A Liberal minority government supported by the NDP is certainly possible, although the Liberals would probably have to finish ahead of the Tories for it to be politically feasible.

Not necessarily, in 1985 the PCs won; yet the NDP and Liberals worked out the "Accord", a rough unofficial support... the NDP would support the Liberals for 2years. That basically last 3years then the Liberals won the next election. I doubt the NDP would enter into anything like that again.

Hence "probably". There's precedent, but the circumstances were very different.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 22, 2011, 01:35:10 PM
http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1058006
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1057308--horwath-talks-about-possible-kingmaker-role?bn=1
Quote
Horwath hailed the progress made by the NDP-backed Liberal government (that you guys are talking about above) of David Peterson
Quote
she likes the progress made on social issues when former Ontario NDP leader backed the Liberals in 1985 in an accord for two years. Rae also negotiated with the Tories.
Quote
Conservative Leader Tim Hudak has ruled out “secret backroom deals” to govern in a coalition




Also, want to see my ElectoMatic at work?
Go here
http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/#/ontario+2011
Click "Split"

TA DA

The exact same math I use. Except in the ElectoMatic, you don't need to bother adding to 100%, it does that for you autoMatic.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 22, 2011, 09:03:58 PM
Maybe it's best for the NDP to finish in the mid-high 20's, with Libs in low 30's and Conservatives in mid 30's. If that leads to a slight Liberal minority with 20 - 22 NDP seats (mostly from the north, and seats they won in May), they can prop up the Liberal government for a few years, and go into the next election strong, focusing on regions they would need to and could win.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: 2952-0-0 on September 22, 2011, 09:12:28 PM
Maybe it's best for the NDP to finish in the mid-high 20's, with Libs in low 30's and Conservatives in mid 30's. If that leads to a slight Liberal minority with 20 - 22 NDP seats (mostly from the north, and seats they won in May), they can prop up the Liberal government for a few years, and go into the next election strong, focusing on regions they would need to and could win.

But Dalton will be motivated in that instance to do to the NDP what Cameron did to the Lib Dems: dump all the blame for unpopular decisions onto the junior partner, which will be powerless to influence the decisions and turn off their entire base.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 22, 2011, 09:22:34 PM
The trick, of course, is to avoid actually becoming part of the government.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 22, 2011, 09:50:32 PM
Any sort of NDP "accord" would really need the PC Party to finish slightly ahead in terms of seats. If the Liberals win the seat count, Dalton would probably try to go it on his own, and if the PC Party beats the Liberals by 10 or more, the media would hang the NDP unless it agreed to an outright coalition.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on September 23, 2011, 05:25:55 AM
Probably not likely, but best outcome for the NDP is to finish second, for the Tories to not have a majority, and force the Liberals to decide... Do they prop up the Tories or do they validate the NDP votes? Technically the best result there for the NDP would be for the Liberals to prop up a Tory minority government which would leave them as the real alternative to the Tories.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 23, 2011, 06:45:58 AM
Probably not likely, but best outcome for the NDP is to finish second, for the Tories to not have a majority, and force the Liberals to decide... Do they prop up the Tories or do they validate the NDP votes? Technically the best result there for the NDP would be for the Liberals to prop up a Tory minority government which would leave them as the real alternative to the Tories.

You're right that this would be the best option for NDP. It would be a disaster for Ontario, though...


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 23, 2011, 07:40:31 AM
We should remember that, in the eyes of the majority of Canadians, the party with the most seats after the election "won". So any type of agreement in which that party is not the governing one is corruption/unethical/overthrowing the government/whatever. So the only way a Liberal-NDP accord can work is if the Liberals come ahead in terms of seats.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 23, 2011, 04:38:18 PM
If anyone has a stream of the Northern Ontario debate from last night, would they please be so kind as to post it? :)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: adma on September 23, 2011, 08:02:45 PM
So the only way a Liberal-NDP accord can work is if the Liberals come ahead in terms of seats.

Or at least, if the seat totals were close enough--the Liberals had 48 to the PCs' 52 in '85, although being ahead in the actual vote totals gave the Grits an added gloss of "moral authority".


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 23, 2011, 09:07:41 PM
I still say that so long as they are close, even if the PC Party wins the vote and the seat count, that an "accord" will be likely. How close?

Tie? Certainly.
1 seat? Very likely.
2 seats? Still very likely.
3 seats? likely
4 seats? More likely than random chance, it's happened before.
5 seats? I'd peg this closer to random chance
6 seats? That's really as far as I am comfortable saying that it'd happen
7 seats? only if the NDP has 25+ seats, and thus can claim an authority based on that.
8 seats? No. The only way this would work is something like: 31+34+42, which would really be a stretch; unless the NDP topped 30% in the polls as did the Liberals; then maybe.

If the Liberals win by even 1 seat, McGuinty will go for a minority.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 23, 2011, 09:10:37 PM
There was a poll from Peterborough

Lib: 45.5
PC: 28.5
NDP: 22
Grn: 4

Compare to my projection

Lib: 44
PC: 30
NDP: 24
Grn: 2

This poll must be very accurate ;) The 308 guy is bragging at how close he was, but mine is even better :)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 23, 2011, 10:54:13 PM
Apparently the Toronto Star is releasing a poll of 39,000 (yes 39,000) that will show the Liberals and PCs dead even at 35% with the NDP at 23% and the Greens and others at 7%.

This is like 1985 all over again! when that exact vote split led to 51 PCs 49 Libs and 25 NDP.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 24, 2011, 11:44:45 AM
Apparently the Toronto Star is releasing a poll of 39,000 (yes 39,000) that will show the Liberals and PCs dead even at 35% with the NDP at 23% and the Greens and others at 7%.

This is like 1985 all over again! when that exact vote split led to 51 PCs 49 Libs and 25 NDP.

Sample is large enough for individual riding projections too, and they have the NDP with just 13!

I want to know more about this poll. Here are the "close races"

Ancaster-Dundas

Beaches-East York :(

Bramalea-Gore-Malton :)

Brampton-Springdale

Halton ???

Kitchener Centre

Kitchener-Conestoga

Kitchener-Waterloo

London North Centre

London West

Mississauga East

Mississauga Erindale

Mississauga South

Niagara Falls

Oak Ridges-Markham

Ottawa South ???

Pickering-Scarborough East

Richmond Hill

St. Catharines

Thornhill

Thunder Bay-Atikokan

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Timmins-James Bay :(

Trinity-Spadina :(

Welland :(

Windsor-Tecumseh :)

Windsor West :(

York Centre


Where's Ottawa Centre? Surely the NDP isn't ahead by 5%, and neither are the Liberals?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 24, 2011, 11:52:34 AM
A poll with a sample that big is deeply suspicious; which outfit did it?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 24, 2011, 11:59:12 AM
Is it even possible to randomly select a sample of 39000 people ? This kind of "mega polls" usually don't have random samples (see Literary Digest).


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 24, 2011, 12:04:40 PM
A poll with a sample that big is deeply suspicious; which outfit did it?

Forum Research.

I'm concerned. How can a 6 point gain only result in 3 more seats. (The article says the NDP is down in Parkdale-High Park, yeah right!).



Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 24, 2011, 12:17:39 PM

Don't worry too much about this. Timmins-James Bay was fool's gold for Conservatives in the federal ("polls show Greenberg close or ahead"). Spacek is a horrible candidate for Timmins (not too much love for Kapuskasing there, and the Conservative candidate needs to win the city big for a victory), and Bisson has very sold support outside of the city.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 24, 2011, 04:22:54 PM
To take a brief foray away from the numbers and into a policy rant (though it has political implications that I’ll discuss in the last paragraph):

Horwath’s platform sucks. It’s the worst I’ve seen from the NDP at the provincial or federal level - basically there’s a grab-bag of silly populist measures that don’t make sense from the point of view of any of economic growth, egalitarian redistribution or environmental protection. To take a couple of examples:

- the party proposes not to get rid of the HST altogether, but to eliminate it on ... gas! Why gas? If poorer people are struggling with the HST, why not just give them a rebate regardless of what they’ve spent their money on? Aside from the obvious carbon-increasing implications, it should be clear that this is not redistributive in the right way, since rich people buy more gas than poorer people. Imagine the NDP had said instead: “we’re just going to write a cheque every year to each Ontarian, and the amount will be a linear function of the amount of gas you buy. So Rakesh who takes the bus from his apartment in outer Scarborough to his job in a restaurant in North York gets $0, Dave who drives his Ford from his home in Windsor to his factory job 5 km away in another part of Windsor $50, and Bill who drives his BMW SUV from his home in Oakville to his office 40 km away in downtown Toronto $500.” This is functionally the same proposal as a cut to the tax on gas. Of all the ways of distributing money, this is the way the NDP chooses?

- Horwath promises to undo a contract already signed for new commuter trains for Toronto because she wants a “buy-Ontario” policy and the factory is in ... Montreal! Now, I have some sympathy for trade restrictions with countries that restrict labour rights, but seriously? We shouldn’t be trading with another Canadian province? Does she seriously think that Canadian manufacturing will stay competitive if companies have to give up economies of scale and have ten separate factories in different provinces?

As an expat I can only vote federally, but if I were in Ontario I’d be very tempted to cast a rare non-NDP vote. Social democratic views or no, Dalton is clearly the adult in the room.

Now, back to the politics: leaving aside what I think, the whole operation is clearly appealing to a certain kind of economically squeezed but not very poor voter in smaller manufacturing centres, but it's bad for the urban educated left-of-centre. Given the quality of polling, I'm pretty reluctant to make specific regional predictions, but it shouldn't be surprising if it turns out that the Liberal->NDP trend is reduced, or even in reverse, in central Ottawa and Toronto. (Especially since, in light of recent events at the municipal level in Toronto, the NDP/Smitherman voters are not in the mood to hear "normal people just gotta drive" type automotive populism.)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: adma on September 24, 2011, 04:43:48 PM
I'm concerned. How can a 6 point gain only result in 3 more seats. (The article says the NDP is down in Parkdale-High Park, yeah right!).

I'm suspicious of P-HP, too.  However, an only-3-seat pickup *could* be plausible if the gains are largely "bottom-feeding" in little-or-no-hope seats.  (Sort of like 2003, where the NDP lost official party status while gaining share, thanks to dead cat bounces in the 905 and wherever else.)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on September 24, 2011, 04:50:02 PM
Going canvassing, it's always amusing to see how many people are idiots ready to be brainwashed into believing anything and then thinking they're absolutely correct and that everybody else is wrong. They talk about stuff like energy, HST or healthcare but have no clue why they hate it.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 24, 2011, 04:59:27 PM
Quote
Even with such a huge poll, Bozinoff emphasized there are some questionable results.

The survey suggests the Liberals would win Parkdale-High Park, an NDP stronghold for dynamo Cheri Di Novo, but lose St. Catharines, a seat held since 1977 by popular Grit Jim Bradley. As well, it forecasts the Conservatives picking up Liberal-held Kitchener-Conestoga and Kitchener Centre, but falling short in Tory Elizabeth Witmer’s long-time riding of Kitchener-Waterloo.

Again, everyone's doubts about the riding polls are correct, but still, these "questionable" results are quite consistent with a pattern that shouldn't be surprising just observing the campaign and thinking about the odd overall numbers, that the parties are basically trading class/education groups.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on September 24, 2011, 05:06:39 PM
I never understood what the problem with HST is.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on September 24, 2011, 11:49:25 PM
I think the overall seat projection is not totally out of whack, but I question some of the individual seats.  In the case of the Kitchener ridings, it is probably true that Kitchener-Waterloo is the most Liberal leaning if you had a generic candidate, but I would be quite shocked if they actually picked this up.  I suspect the Liberals would have won this in 2003 and 2007 had Elizabeth Witmer not been candidate.  In addition, I think McGuinty's decision not to attend the Northern Ontario debates will help the NDP win in some of these ridings.  Another aspect is who does the undecided break.  At least federally since 2004, it seems the undecided has generally broken in favour of the governing party which is good news for the Liberals.  By the same token Tory supporters are more firm in their support and more likely to show up on E-day thus much like the federal election, NB election, and Toronto mayoral election it is possible the polls are underestimating Tory support.  It will be interesting to see what the polls after the debates are.  I think considering most want stability, I believe that a majority is more likely than a minority, but which party it will be is tough to say.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 25, 2011, 11:00:12 AM
Here's the overlay of the forum research survey into GTA ridings:

http://www.thestar.com/staticcontent/1058980

I must say, while some make sense, Im a little flabbergasted about York South Weston for example. But, that's good news for Ottawa Centre, as if some of the obvious NDP ridings in Toronto aren't NDP in this poll, then OC becomes more likely as one of those few pick ups :)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 25, 2011, 11:36:03 AM
A lot of close races... and Liberals come on top in every one? I'll just wait for the official results. Riding polling is too crazy and unreliable. I'd like to know what they have for Timmins-James Bay though. If it's close between Liberals and NDP, in the garbage it goes.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on September 25, 2011, 12:25:49 PM
Interesting how much lower the PCs are provincially than what they got in many of the ridings in the last federal election.  Is this because Tim Hudak is not catching on, or Michael Ignatieff was far more disliked than McGuinty, or perhaps is a just a case of many sticking with the devil they know rather than the one they don't.  Off course we will have to see what the actual results are on election day as most polls going into the final days of the federal election put the federal Tories at 38-41% which is only slightly higher than what the PCs are at now provincially.  No poll after Good Friday put the Tories even within the margin of error of what they actually got in Ontario (44.4%).


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 25, 2011, 12:55:58 PM
Interesting how much lower the PCs are provincially than what they got in many of the ridings in the last federal election.  Is this because Tim Hudak is not catching on, or Michael Ignatieff was far more disliked than McGuinty, or perhaps is a just a case of many sticking with the devil they know rather than the one they don't.  Off course we will have to see what the actual results are on election day as most polls going into the final days of the federal election put the federal Tories at 38-41% which is only slightly higher than what the PCs are at now provincially.  No poll after Good Friday put the Tories even within the margin of error of what they actually got in Ontario (44.4%).

I think the lesson from May is that the polls will only clue in to the final trend at the last minute, and even then decently underestimate the winner's margin. OLP's ground game is much better than the LPC's, they have a seasoned veteran as their leader, and the opposition is making a series of unforced errors. McGuinty is as well- copying the Iggy strategy of saying the NDP is too left for one thing.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 25, 2011, 01:35:18 PM
I think you mean that McGuinty is copying the Ignatieff strategy of saying the NDP is too rightwing - with his absurd accusation that because both the NDP and PCs voted against the last Liberal budget (for opposite reasons) they are somehow identical! Of course the Libs then turn around and claim the NDP is too leftwing...I guess they can't make up their minds.

BTW: One more thing to mention about the Forum poll. Even though they surveyed something like 400 people in each riding. In each riding they only asked people how they would vote on the generic party vote. They did not read the names of the local candidates in each riding - and in many cases that can make a big difference.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 25, 2011, 01:49:52 PM
Here are some more riding results: http://www.bayshorebroadcasting.ca/news_item.php?NewsID=39064

Those races seem to make sense.

If anyone else can find anything, it would be much appreciated.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 25, 2011, 11:48:37 PM
A new Ontario projection! (trying to make sense of the Forum Research poll)

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/ontario-election-2011-prediction_26.html


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 26, 2011, 12:11:25 AM
Riding polling fails because it is based on telephone exchanges, and ridings cross those. Ridings even cross postal codes, with one code in particular being in Guildwood and Scar Centre. I even argued with a political person on the phone telling them that I KNOW I am in Guildwood, because the rail line is the border, and they trying to tell me the opposite because of my postal code. That is why Parkdale, and the Kitcheners, etc, are showing up wrong. The poll is correct, but placing the voters in the proper riding is not.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 26, 2011, 07:31:02 AM
Riding polling fails because it is based on telephone exchanges, and ridings cross those. Ridings even cross postal codes, with one code in particular being in Guildwood and Scar Centre. I even argued with a political person on the phone telling them that I KNOW I am in Guildwood, because the rail line is the border, and they trying to tell me the opposite because of my postal code. That is why Parkdale, and the Kitcheners, etc, are showing up wrong. The poll is correct, but placing the voters in the proper riding is not.

Good point Teddy. Maybe a lot of the Parkdale people were counted in Davenport (same with York South-Weston)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 26, 2011, 08:33:53 AM
With all the problems with these and other polls (numbers too small to get a real idea, or no reagional breakdowns, etc) they can be used to the advantage of some campaigns.
So they say the NDP is trailing in YSW, PHP (really?) at any rate, that can bolster volunteers; the last thing you want it to be over confident and think you have it in the bag. In Toronto Danforth, i've gotten 3 calls already to volunteer (which i have, and since i already voted might do eday too) so they are not taking a safe riding for granted. I suppose these poor numbers (seats counts really) can be used to bolster our campaigns, get people motivated to work for every riding.
This has also lead to speculation, should we even have this much polling? or polling during an election at all? Look at Manitoba? has there even been a poll since June? would that be better for the parties to just run a campaign and let the chips fall on election day? (ok sorry if you all want to kill me cause i love the polling everyone is doing!)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 26, 2011, 08:36:20 AM
Constituency polling is a mugs game; as we saw just a few months ago. But, presumably, these are breakdowns from a massive poll, rather than specific riding polls? If so, then that would make them near useless.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 26, 2011, 11:11:09 AM
301 has been the standard for polling for some time over here. Dont ask me why. A poll of this size is large enough to put 301 voters in every riding - so I presume it is indeed individual riding based polls. For the reasons I outlined, though, I wouldn't trust the poll to be 100% accurate.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 26, 2011, 12:50:19 PM
Yes, but we have no idea if the results were demographically weighted in each individual riding (as opposed to at the province wide level) and we know that no local candidate names were used - just generic party vote.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 26, 2011, 04:53:21 PM
With all the problems with these and other polls (numbers too small to get a real idea, or no reagional breakdowns, etc) they can be used to the advantage of some campaigns.
So they say the NDP is trailing in YSW, PHP (really?) at any rate, that can bolster volunteers; the last thing you want it to be over confident and think you have it in the bag. In Toronto Danforth, i've gotten 3 calls already to volunteer (which i have, and since i already voted might do eday too) so they are not taking a safe riding for granted. I suppose these poor numbers (seats counts really) can be used to bolster our campaigns, get people motivated to work for every riding.
This has also lead to speculation, should we even have this much polling? or polling during an election at all? Look at Manitoba? has there even been a poll since June? would that be better for the parties to just run a campaign and let the chips fall on election day? (ok sorry if you all want to kill me cause i love the polling everyone is doing!)

Without polling, the NDP does not form opposition I think.

Constituency polling is a mugs game; as we saw just a few months ago. But, presumably, these are breakdowns from a massive poll, rather than specific riding polls? If so, then that would make them near useless.

Breakdowns from the massive poll. But as we saw from the GTA map, most of the ridings make sense. It's a few odds one that make you scratch the head. But then again, even actual election results will make you scratch your head from time to time.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 27, 2011, 07:50:27 AM

Without polling, the NDP does not form opposition I think.

Huh? can you explain that a little more :P



Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Insula Dei on September 27, 2011, 07:52:46 AM

Without polling, the NDP does not form opposition I think.

Huh? can you explain that a little more :P



Opinion polls play an important part in the narrative of an election campaign and can help to creat an upwards trend for a party. I suppose that's what Hatman's getting at.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 27, 2011, 11:45:12 AM
Just as i talk about gettign ride of polling during elections (which i rather like so i was being devils advocate)...
Two new polls:

Ekos- Lib 34.9%, PC 31.4%, NDP 24.7%, Green 6.3%

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/FG-2011-09-27.pdf

Abacus- PC 37%, Lib 33%, NDP 23%, Green 6%

http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Ballot-Ontario-Sept-26-2011.pdf



Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Insula Dei on September 27, 2011, 12:02:01 PM
Ontario might well be heading for the best possible result (a Liberal minority government) on these figures :)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on September 27, 2011, 12:51:09 PM
If Abacus, the trashy pollster for the ultra-trasy far-right SUN rags is showing a 4pt edge for the PC, then it's good news :)

From my internal sources, the Liberals have a 6pt lead or so in Ottawa-Orleans and we're not on the party's watchlist :)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 27, 2011, 03:16:08 PM
Just as i talk about gettign ride of polling during elections (which i rather like so i was being devils advocate)...
Two new polls:

Ekos- Lib 34.9%, PC 31.4%, NDP 24.7%, Green 6.3%

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/FG-2011-09-27.pdf

Abacus- PC 37%, Lib 33%, NDP 23%, Green 6%

http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Ballot-Ontario-Sept-26-2011.pdf

Is such an enormous variation frequent in Canadian/Ontarian polls ?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 27, 2011, 04:19:43 PM
Huh. I wasn't aware EKOS was doing a poll.

Anyways, their regionals are more obviously sorted by area codes. "Northeastern and Central Ontario" being a big giveaway for the 705. Oddly enough, they have the NDP winning that region which means that Northeastern Ontario is going enmasse to the NDP while getting respectable numbers in the Tory hinterland that is the southern 705. They also have the 807 as a separate category (Northwestern Ontario), which has a really small sample size, as it's a small area code. The Tories are winning there, and I am starting to think the Tories probably have the lead in Kenora-Rainy River.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 27, 2011, 05:35:31 PM
lol McGuinty. First line of the debate, "well, Canada's doing... well... Ontario is doing well, as well..."

Why is it just McGuiny vs. Hudak? Why aren't they letting Horwath into the fray? Free for all, come on!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 27, 2011, 05:43:27 PM
Horwath must speak up. She's letting McGuinty talk all over her. Cut him off, go for the throat!

Horwath's "I don't think you even know where Duberville is", ha! That was good. Also Hudak's "my daughter can put any three letter magnets on the fridge and it would stand for another government agency" was also funny.

I find Horwath and McGuinty feel very real, compared to Hudak who seems to be sticking to the talking points... not too confrontational, only unless it's a scripted confrontation.

Fourth question was stupid... "this election has ignored the big issues, blah blah, why are you afraid to speak up and tackle the big issues?" Um, ok.

Horwath calling Bob Rae "that guy" to McGuinty. lol.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on September 27, 2011, 07:01:16 PM
Hudak's performance can be summarized as follows: "tax grabs"/"hydro bills"/"foreigners"/"taxes". Number one priority for him is health or education? Ha! You clearly don't give a sh**t about education and your plan is to increase student debt, and your party ran healthcare into the ground with nurse lay-offs and hospital closures.

What a pathetic little child. If he gets into power, he'll ruin this province just like his idol Mike Harris did in the 90s.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 27, 2011, 07:01:25 PM
I'd say it's been a painful night for provincial Liberals. McGunity has dropped the ball. What the heck was up with him? Was he ill? Andrea has made a great showing in her first debate. While it's Hudak's first debate too, he, as Leader of the Opposition, was already more well known. I think Hudak did what was expected, while McGuinty came in below expectations. Andrea, however, I think did better than expected, and thus, the way I see it; won the debate.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 27, 2011, 07:03:50 PM
Well, debate's over. What did everyone think? Who won? I think McGuinty and Horwath did rather well... Hudak seemed too scripted. When he zinged someone, you can tell it wasn't natural. I felt Horwath started the debate very timidly and let the other two talk all over her, and then she totally turned around and began talking over the other two. McGuinty did well defending himself... I dunno how well it'll work. Horwath and Hudak were ganging up on him a lot. And I felt that Horwath's zingers were too... quick and drew no attention to her. When she said that Hudak must've liked her idea on taking HST off hydro and heating, she was speaking over him, and she said it quickly... kind of lost its effectiveness.

Hudak's performance can be summarized as follows: "tax grabs"/"hydro bills"/"foreigners"/"taxes".

Mmhmm, although I thought Horwath kept saying "cash grab" a bit too much during the first half.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on September 27, 2011, 07:05:49 PM
McGuinty and Horwath performed best, yeah. Hudak was a child.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on September 27, 2011, 07:08:04 PM
My take is McGuinty did okay, but not great.  Not bad enough to ensure defeat, but certainly not good enough to guarantee a win.  He seemed quite optimistic on how well Ontario was doing and I guess a lot will depend on how each individual feels.  It will probably help him with those who agree Ontario is doing well, but make him look out of touch with those who think differently.

Hudak - Was quite strong at the beginning and looked persuasive, but as time passed he seemed a bit too vague and repetitive.  Not enough to hand him victory, but not either a debate to guarantee him defeat.  He did a good but not great job so any impact will probably be minimal.  He also got lucky in some ways that Mike Harris' government was only briefly mentioned a few times as this could have hurt him a lot more if he had defend his record as a Harris cabinet minister.

Howarth - A weak start, but stronger towards the end.  Came across someone who genuinely cared about people which helps and was more specific than Hudak on her plans, but at the same time she interupted a lot and this didn't look good.  Cannot see this being enough to land her in the premier's chair, but not a lousy enough performance either to cause the NDP to fall back to their base support.

I suspect if anything most people will probably say whomever they plan to vote for won the debate.  No one had a stellar performance but no one had a terrible one either.  And no knockout punches.  No memorable lines like Layton's one last federal election about Ignatieff having the worse attendance record in the House of Commons


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: adma on September 27, 2011, 07:15:08 PM
Keep in mind that McGuinty's always been a mediocre debate performer.  (Which in some paradoxical way, might serve his "stay the course" tone well--i.e. better honest mediocrity than overperformance.)

For some reason, Horwath reminded me of a stockier Jennifer Aniston.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on September 27, 2011, 07:17:43 PM
CBC's poll in its coveritlive thing shows 42% think McGuinty win, 40% think Horwath won and only 12% think Hudak won. FWIW, of course.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 27, 2011, 07:19:02 PM
()
I snapped this pic of McGunity during the debate.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on September 27, 2011, 07:24:11 PM
CBC's poll in its coveritlive thing shows 42% think McGuinty win, 40% think Horwath won and only 12% think Hudak won. FWIW, of course.
  Was this a poll done by an organization like Ipsos, Nanos, Angus-Reid etc. or was it just one of those that anybody can click on.  If the latter I wouldn't take much stock in it as I am sure one on Sun News or the National Post would have Tim Hudak well ahead.  If a scientific one, then it could be interesting to see the fall out.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on September 27, 2011, 07:35:00 PM
CBC's poll in its coveritlive thing shows 42% think McGuinty win, 40% think Horwath won and only 12% think Hudak won. FWIW, of course.
  Was this a poll done by an organization like Ipsos, Nanos, Angus-Reid etc. or was it just one of those that anybody can click on.  If the latter I wouldn't take much stock in it as I am sure one on Sun News or the National Post would have Tim Hudak well ahead.  If a scientific one, then it could be interesting to see the fall out.

Well, obviously it was one of those worthless clicky pollsy thingees and is hopelessly wrong, but still a better indicator than a similar thing on the SUN website. People who follow such stuff on the CBC tend to be more educated than the manchilds who follow such things on the SUN rags website.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 27, 2011, 07:40:49 PM
Hudak's inability to perform in the clicky polls is telling. I also don't think anything McGuinty will stick by the time voters wake up tomorrow.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 27, 2011, 09:21:32 PM
I missed the debate, as I had to attend my girlfriend's brother's birthday dinner. It was at one of Ottawa's fanciest restaurants where a lot of MPs apparently gather. Senator Pamela Wallin was in the next table over.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 27, 2011, 10:23:01 PM
The post debate poll by Ipsos says 33% thought McGuinty won, 29% picked Horwath and 25% picked Hudak. Horwath vastly exceeded expectations since only 14% expected her to win going in.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on September 27, 2011, 10:25:08 PM
The post debate poll by Ipsos says 33% thought McGuinty won, 29% picked Horwath and 25% picked Hudak. Horwath vastly exceeded expectations since only 14% expected her to win going in.

Pretty close.  Maybe a slight bounce for Horwarth and maybe hurts Hudak a bit, but really I cannot see this changing the numbers that much.  If anything it only re-enforced people's choices.  Also sounds fairly accurate as I don't think there was either a clear winner or loser.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 27, 2011, 10:42:22 PM
In today's Globe & Mail, they were saying Horwath didn't do well in the Northern Ontario debate, so it looks good that she was able to turn things around.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 27, 2011, 10:51:21 PM
It gets even better! The post debate poll says 67% of viewers had an improved impression of Andrea Horwath after the debate and just 10% were negative - that is off the chart! and even higher then what Layton got on that question after he aced the leaders debate in April!

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5350


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 27, 2011, 11:12:48 PM
It gets even better! The post debate poll says 67% of viewers had an improved impression of Andrea Horwath after the debate and just 10% were negative - that is off the chart! and even higher then what Layton got on that question after he aced the leaders debate in April!

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5350
Remember that most people thought that Harper won that debate, at least, for the next week or two. It was only in hindsight that it was clear the impact Layton had made, and I think Andrea has made a similar impact here.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on September 28, 2011, 02:05:35 AM
I was bored enough to watched the debate on YouTube, and was incredibly frustrated by Horwath not being aggressive enough in the first half hour or so, but once she got going she did very well. (Although some of her very good one-line comebacks I fear went unnoticed.)

Hudak, as others have said, came off as intensely scripted, and McGuinty performed pretty good, neither poorly or exceptionally, but I hate how much he gesticulates when he talks. Jesus Christ.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 28, 2011, 03:26:56 AM
I was bored enough to watched the debate on YouTube, and was incredibly frustrated by Horwath not being aggressive enough in the first half hour or so, but once she got going she did very well. (Although some of her very good one-line comebacks I fear went unnoticed.)

Hudak, as others have said, came off as intensely scripted, and McGuinty performed pretty good, neither poorly or exceptionally, but I hate how much he gesticulates when he talks. Jesus Christ.
His advisors told him to do that to attract female voters.

Looking at the polls, maybe it worked.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 28, 2011, 03:34:35 AM
I've decided to vote for the Ontario NDP. The fact that there will likely be a minority, and that the NDP can win my riding, are key in deciding. I don't trust the Liberals to do a damned thing to make my life any different. They don't care about people like me. The Tories meanwhile would make life a lot harder for me because they hate people like me - IE people who think $60,000 is rich; People who are "poor". The NDP meanwhile will actually improve public transit, and in any coalition, I'm hoping they will make things like this conditional for support.

Thus, I've decided to vote NDP, provincially.

Edit
The Liberals have committed to all-day GO, while the NDP has committed to properly funding local service. Combine both and you have, gasp, a real public transit strategy for the first time in decades in this province.

Also. I have voted. I will change my avatar back to it's usual Green on October 7th.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 28, 2011, 06:12:16 AM
What riding are you in?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 28, 2011, 07:10:44 AM
York West, with moi. Thanks Teddy. <3 Although I'm voting for Timmins-James Bay, and my ballot should be in the mail any day now.

I found the Northern debate! :) link (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNpILmdTD6w). Yesterday's debate is here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yll4ZpzMvZg).

edit: oh, Horwath's French isn't good at all... luckily a lot French-speaking ridings are already in the NDP column so far.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 28, 2011, 07:22:44 AM
I've decided to vote for the Ontario NDP. The fact that there will likely be a minority, and that the NDP can win my riding, are key in deciding. I don't trust the Liberals to do a damned thing to make my life any different. They don't care about people like me. The Tories meanwhile would make life a lot harder for me because they hate people like me - IE people who think $60,000 is rich. People who are "poor". The NDP meanwhile will actually improve public transit, and in any coalition, I'm hoping they will make things like this conditional for support.

Thus, I've decided to vote NDP, provincially.

Wow... welcome back ;)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 28, 2011, 07:39:02 AM
Found some Forum research numbers for the Niagara area: http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3312656

Apparently, the NDP is holding on to Welland, and the Liberals are down in NF and St. Catharines.

Also, London-Fanshawe is in the NDP column: http://www.cjbk.com/LocalNews/Story.aspx?ID=1545478 :)



Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 28, 2011, 07:58:03 AM
I personally thought Andrea did an amazing job; she came across the most "real" as well as the most folksy, but in a good way. what i mean by that is that she was the most genuine, personal and funny... my favourite moment was when she blurted out when McGuinty was talking about the Toyota plant "My brother works there!" i just about died laughing. She was also the one to present the clearest policy which is definetely what the party needs to do to win over some.
McGunity gave me motion sickness, but more so i found him mildly arrogant and a tad belittling. But he held his own.
Hudak continues to creep me out.

I haven't seen the level of undecides? in the polls are we seeing a high number or is it pretty low? I think Andreas performance might help in winning over some progressive undecideds.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 28, 2011, 03:26:59 PM
I personally thought Andrea did an amazing job; she came across the most "real" as well as the most folksy, but in a good way. what i mean by that is that she was the most genuine, personal and funny... my favourite moment was when she blurted out when McGuinty was talking about the Toyota plant "My brother works there!" i just about died laughing. She was also the one to present the clearest policy which is definetely what the party needs to do to win over some.
McGunity gave me motion sickness, but more so i found him mildly arrogant and a tad belittling. But he held his own.
Hudak continues to creep me out.

I haven't seen the level of undecides? in the polls are we seeing a high number or is it pretty low? I think Andreas performance might help in winning over some progressive undecideds.


Lots of undecideds here.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on September 28, 2011, 03:35:57 PM
Well, if you trust canvassing, 90% are undecided, but people lie.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 28, 2011, 03:40:24 PM
Well, if you trust canvassing, 90% are undecided, but people lie.

In Canada, there must be far more undecided voters than in America because of the abundance of PC-Grit swing voters and NDP-Grit swing voters, correct?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 28, 2011, 03:42:36 PM
Well, if you trust canvassing, 90% are undecided, but people lie.

In Canada, there must be far more undecided voters than in America because of the abundance of PC-Grit swing voters and NDP-Grit swing voters, correct?

Some of the wild swings Canada gets say that alone.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 28, 2011, 04:08:53 PM
Then I'd say the only way to fix that is a Harris-size budget machete, though phrased somewhat more softly.

Yeah, he'd need to say that very softly, unless he wants to lose a lot of support. It'd almost be as bad as Horwath saying she would implement Rae policies.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 28, 2011, 04:23:43 PM
I've just come back from the advance polls where I voted NDP.

I also explained to my roomate how I never have, and probably never will, support the federal NDP. I've voted provincially for the PC Party once, and the NDP two times. Federally, I've voted Liberal, Green, and Conservative. So oddly, I while I support the Liberals federally, I've never supported them on a provincial level.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 28, 2011, 05:38:18 PM
I've just come back from the advance polls where I voted NDP.

I also explained to my roomate how I never have, and probably never will, support the federal NDP. I've voted provincially for the PC Party once, and the NDP two times. Federally, I've voted Liberal, Green, and Conservative. So oddly, I while I support the Liberals federally, I've never supported them on a provincial level.

lol. Now that you can't change your vote, I don't have to worry about angering you to the point of changing it ;)

Well, if you trust canvassing, 90% are undecided, but people lie.

It's not quite that high, but yeah. Then again, it makes sense here, because some people can't tell the difference between the Libs and NDP.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on September 28, 2011, 06:59:43 PM
Also, London-Fanshawe is in the NDP column

I was thinking about that the other day - since it was so close last election, and since it wasn't in the list of seats within 5%, I thought it highly likely that the NDP had a lead of more than 5% there (since I considered it unlikely that the Liberals had improved their position there, or that the Tories had managed to gain a lead of more than 5%).


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 28, 2011, 07:13:40 PM
Also, London-Fanshawe is in the NDP column

I was thinking about that the other day - since it was so close last election, and since it wasn't in the list of seats within 5%, I thought it highly likely that the NDP had a lead of more than 5% there (since I considered it unlikely that the Liberals had improved their position there, or that the Tories had managed to gain a lead of more than 5%).

I did not. I figured much of the NDP vote there is personal for Irene. I guess I was wrong. Only problem is, if L-F went NDP in that poll, it means Ottawa Centre is less likely. (still no word as to what it said).


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 29, 2011, 07:42:53 AM
I've just come back from the advance polls where I voted NDP.

I also explained to my roomate how I never have, and probably never will, support the federal NDP. I've voted provincially for the PC Party once, and the NDP two times. Federally, I've voted Liberal, Green, and Conservative. So oddly, I while I support the Liberals federally, I've never supported them on a provincial level.

That strikes me as odd, i understand the Fed and Prov Liberals are two different entities but them seem to have similar policies, why have you never votes for the OLP?

And i think this is exactly the trend your going to see in close ridings, the NDP has a platform that is attracting (small L) Liberals as well as soft Liberals. The OLP has been trying to ride that centre left for a long while now and people are starting to realise its fake.

on CItyTV they had a story on PHP, they had a huge biased take on this, plugging the liberals saying its theres... Cheri talking about the electric rail link as a policy and then the guy saying no ones talking about it. But that poll did say the liberals were leading (I'm sure they only polled voters is High Park and Swansea). But Trinity they say is close... and i met Sarah Thompson and she tried to fear monger me after i identified as a Dipper! my BF had to pull me out of our "discussion" :P


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 29, 2011, 07:57:08 AM
I've only had two chances to vote provincially in Ontario, and in 2007, not only was I a federal Conservative at the time, but John Tory had committed to funding 50% of public transit.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 29, 2011, 08:44:03 AM
Well, I am upset.

Krago sent me the riding by riding numbers of the Forum Research poll, and the Liberal lead here is apparently huge.

I am hoping they f'ed up with the telephone exchanges, but still.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 29, 2011, 08:49:20 AM
Care to share?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 29, 2011, 08:50:47 AM
Well, I am upset.

Krago sent me the riding by riding numbers of the Forum Research poll, and the Liberal lead here is apparently huge.

I am hoping they f'ed up with the telephone exchanges, but still.
The NDP will have 30% of the vote on e-day.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 29, 2011, 08:54:57 AM

NDP pick ups are Algoma-Manitoulin, Timiskaming-Cochrane, London-Fanshawe and Hamilton Mountain while we're losing Kenora-Rainy River. All of those make sense.

Do you have anything in particular you want to know?

Well, I am upset.

Krago sent me the riding by riding numbers of the Forum Research poll, and the Liberal lead here is apparently huge.

I am hoping they f'ed up with the telephone exchanges, but still.
The NDP will have 30% of the vote on e-day.

In Ottawa Centre, or province wide?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 29, 2011, 09:02:45 AM
Timmins-James Bay? Interested to see how "close" it is. :) Also, do they show Libs ahead in the Thunder Bay ridings?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 29, 2011, 09:04:40 AM
All the other targets too! Davenport, York South-Weston, Thunder Bay Superior North, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Sudbury, Sault Ste. Marie, Windsor West, Bramalea-Gore-Malton.

This poll is from before the debate correct?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 29, 2011, 09:11:31 AM
The results in Toronto and the GTA are found here. (http://www.thestar.com/staticcontent/1058980) I believe the poll was conducted early last week?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on September 29, 2011, 09:16:21 AM
Ottawa-Orleans, Vanier and West-Nepean would all be interesting.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 29, 2011, 09:36:10 AM
Timmins-James Bay: NDP 39, Cons 37, Libs 13
Thunder Bay Superior North: Libs 34, NDP 33, Cons 28
Thunder Bay-Atikokan: Libs 33, NDP 30, Cons 27
Sudbury: Libs 41, NDP 35, Cons 18
Sault Ste. Marie: Libs 46, NDP 28, Cons 20
Windsor West: Libs 34, NDP 34, Cons 26 (0.4% difference)
Ottawa-Orleans: Cons 46, Libs 39, NDP 12
Ottawa West-Nepean: Cons 43, Libs 34, NDP 16


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on September 29, 2011, 09:43:32 AM
Ottawa-Orleans makes no sense. There's no way the Conservatives can be ahead by that much if they're tied province-wide. The whole Ottawa sample seems entirely f-ed up (Orleans, Centre, South...).


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 29, 2011, 09:53:24 AM
Ottawa-Orleans makes no sense. There's no way the Conservatives can be ahead by that much if they're tied province-wide. The whole Ottawa sample seems entirely f-ed up (Orleans, Centre, South...).

Obvious telephone exchange border issues, I reckon.

Here is a map of the numbers: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/forum-poll-riding-by-riding-map.html


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 29, 2011, 07:09:57 PM
We're so depraved of polling. The federal really spoiled us, I guess.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on September 29, 2011, 10:31:39 PM
Ottawa-Orleans makes no sense. There's no way the Conservatives can be ahead by that much if they're tied province-wide. The whole Ottawa sample seems entirely f-ed up (Orleans, Centre, South...).

Obvious telephone exchange border issues, I reckon.

Here is a map of the numbers: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/forum-poll-riding-by-riding-map.html

  Interesting map.  It looks like almost all of rural Ontario is Tory, but the GTA still largely Liberal.  Sort of like the federal election in 2006 or 2008 in Ontario, thus showing the fallacy of uniform swings.  Not too surprising either as the Ekos poll showed over 80% of Ontarioans planned to vote for the same party they voted for federally. 

My one question is about the riding of Perth-Wellington.  Is their MPP really popular personally as this is a pretty solid Tory riding federally and their MP is a pretty average one and asides from Stratford being a bit more liberal, the riding seems just as conservative as the neighbouring ones on the whole.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 29, 2011, 11:05:12 PM
Ottawa-Orleans makes no sense. There's no way the Conservatives can be ahead by that much if they're tied province-wide. The whole Ottawa sample seems entirely f-ed up (Orleans, Centre, South...).

Obvious telephone exchange border issues, I reckon.

Here is a map of the numbers: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/forum-poll-riding-by-riding-map.html

  Interesting map.  It looks like almost all of rural Ontario is Tory, but the GTA still largely Liberal.  Sort of like the federal election in 2006 or 2008 in Ontario, thus showing the fallacy of uniform swings.  Not too surprising either as the Ekos poll showed over 80% of Ontarioans planned to vote for the same party they voted for federally. 

My one question is about the riding of Perth-Wellington.  Is their MPP really popular personally as this is a pretty solid Tory riding federally and their MP is a pretty average one and asides from Stratford being a bit more liberal, the riding seems just as conservative as the neighbouring ones on the whole.

Must be personal popularity.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 29, 2011, 11:14:58 PM
Interesting poll by the Forum done for the OFL - they seem to have polled about 700 people in each of 9 ridings and found the NDP with solid leads in Parkdale-High Park, York South-Weston, Beaches East York and Trinity-Spadina and also Timmins-James Bay - all ridings that ought to be in the bag for the NDP but where there were some weird results in the big Forum poll for the Star. They say that Sudbury and Thunder Bay-Superior North and Bramalea-Gore-Malton are very close.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2011/09/29/18759706.html


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on September 29, 2011, 11:36:59 PM
Interesting poll by the Forum done for the OFL - they seem to have polled about 700 people in each of 9 ridings and found the NDP with solid leads in Parkdale-High Park, York South-Weston, Beaches East York and Trinity-Spadina and also Timmins-James Bay - all ridings that ought to be in the bag for the NDP but where there were some weird results in the big Forum poll for the Star. They say that Sudbury and Thunder Bay-Superior North and Bramalea-Gore-Malton are very close.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2011/09/29/18759706.html

I know that over here they could have used the electoral roll/phone numbers, and dialed a specific random selection of people in particular electorates, although we have compulsory enrolment, so I don't know if that's possible over there.

Regardless, perhaps the first poll was by telephone exchange and the second was based on the electoral roll and therefore that could explain the difference? Although it mentions the same methodology, so probably not...

Could the debates have had this big an impact?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 29, 2011, 11:44:28 PM
I think that the earlier poll was simply wrong in those particular ridings. That mega poll by Forum had the Tories and Liberals at 35% each and the NDP at 23% - that represents a 7 point drop for the Liberals since 2007 and a 6 point gain for the NDP - it is simply not believable that the NDP could be losing or be anywhere near close to losing seats they won comfortably in 2007 when they the same poll shows a 13 point Liberal to NDP swing!

One thing I do wonder about with this latest Forum poll by the OFL - the earlier poll just gave people party names. Period. This poll of 9 ridings may very well have read people the names of the local candidates - which may make some difference and is probably more accurate given that the local candidates names are what the voter will see on the ballot on e-day!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: adma on September 30, 2011, 06:42:03 AM
I think that the earlier poll was simply wrong in those particular ridings. That mega poll by Forum had the Tories and Liberals at 35% each and the NDP at 23% - that represents a 7 point drop for the Liberals since 2007 and a 6 point gain for the NDP - it is simply not believable that the NDP could be losing or be anywhere near close to losing seats they won comfortably in 2007 when they the same poll shows a 13 point Liberal to NDP swing!

Unless we were seeing some mystery comeback for the federal urban-yuppie strategy of "vote strategically: vote Liberal".  Like, being rid of Gerard Kennedy, Maria Minna, etc gives the Grits an alibi to re-plant that seed provincially...


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 30, 2011, 06:53:16 AM
It's close in Sudbury and Bramalea-Gore-Malton? Go Loewenberg and Singh! :)

Did that OFL poll have the provincial numbers? They polled everyone's second choices, after all.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 30, 2011, 07:09:08 AM
I think that the earlier poll was simply wrong in those particular ridings. That mega poll by Forum had the Tories and Liberals at 35% each and the NDP at 23% - that represents a 7 point drop for the Liberals since 2007 and a 6 point gain for the NDP - it is simply not believable that the NDP could be losing or be anywhere near close to losing seats they won comfortably in 2007 when they the same poll shows a 13 point Liberal to NDP swing!

Unless we were seeing some mystery comeback for the federal urban-yuppie strategy of "vote strategically: vote Liberal".  Like, being rid of Gerard Kennedy, Maria Minna, etc gives the Grits an alibi to re-plant that seed provincially...

This is exactly what Sarah Thompson tried to do to me in Trinity-Spadina... "we need to win the cities to stop Hudak", they are playing the strategic vote dribble to death in TO, probably the same in every other city in the province too.

Oh i have to mention this;  http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Stormont+Dundas+endorsement+MacDonald+edge/5474435/story.html - the Citizen endorsed the NDP candidate in Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry my hometown riding! i was needless to say surprised. Could this be an indication of a new wave of support in eastern ontario? an area thats pretty dead for the NDP outside Ottawa really?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 30, 2011, 07:10:43 AM
Cornwall had an NDP MPP about thirty years ago, so who knows.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 30, 2011, 08:33:01 AM
My numbers have the NDP winning Kingston.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 30, 2011, 08:43:10 AM
My numbers have the NDP winning Kingston.

SHUT the front door... really? from what i recall thats not even a top tier target for the NDP this time, that would be a huge win. Both for the party as a whole but also as a regional win, the party would have a voice for all of Eastern ontario if the NDP picked up both OttC and Kingston.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 30, 2011, 09:06:24 AM
My numbers have the NDP winning Kingston.

Not happening.

No mention of Ottawa Centre in that article, eh? Boy, it's getting depressing.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 30, 2011, 09:45:46 AM
How many polls have come out, where the full period was post-debate?

I'm expecting the NDP to rise 10 points.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 30, 2011, 09:58:32 AM
How many polls have come out, where the full period was post-debate?

I'm expecting the NDP to rise 10 points.

That's optimistic, and I'm an optimist! I'd expect the NDP to be around 25-27% but 33-34%!i would be ecstatic if that was the outcome, but if i try and be the realist i could see many undecideds sticking with the Liberals. Those who want change might vote strategic as well (ruralers going Tory and Urbaners (To, London, Windsor,etc) going NDP.
Plus last poll showed that Tories were more likely to go NDP as the Liberal vote was starting to solidify.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 30, 2011, 10:14:25 AM
My e-day projection is something like:

PC - 34%
Lib - 31%
NDP - 30%
Grn - 5%

With some room for fuzzyness. IE as bad as

PC - 37%
Lib - 31%
NDP - 27%
Grn - 5%

to as good as

NDP - 33%
PC - 32%
Lib - 31%
Grn - 5%


All those options result in a "very" strong Liberal minority, with the only variable being on the word "very"


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 30, 2011, 10:25:01 AM
I have to admit, other than one articule from the CEO of the hospital not happy with Andrea (she handled it well and its more or less flown over with not much notice) its been all positive news all over the place, from the Globe, the Star the CBC even SUN media! (WTF) (ok except that blatant pro-McGuinty "Andrea is Hudak's BFF" articule.
Hmmm i personally think HUdak blew it, so i'd reverse the first one:
Lib - 34%
PC - 31%
NDP - 30%
Green ... 5% is generous at this point (that goes to another point, should the Greens have focused more time/money/energy in Simcoe-Grey getting Mike elected ala Federally?)

So seat count then? based on say 27-33% for the NDP... 20-22 seats?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on September 30, 2011, 10:39:44 AM
I'm a fatalist and eternal pessimist when it comes to Canadian politics, so I have resigned myself into accepting Hudak as the next premier and the upcoming destruction of this province going alongside the ongoing destruction of this country.

Maybe if I'm lucky I'll move to Bilbao in 4-5 years.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 30, 2011, 10:44:32 AM
I really don't see the NDP getting 30%, but here's hoping.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on September 30, 2011, 12:44:20 PM

So seat count then? based on say 27-33% for the NDP... 20-22 seats?

I can assure you that if the NDP actually got high 20s or low 30s in the popular vote - they would get a lot more than 20-22 seats - it would be more like 30 seats.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 30, 2011, 12:52:32 PM
I believe the NDP will sit comfortably around 24% - 26% until election day... good performance in the debate, yes, but not enough people are jumping from the Liberals to NDP, now that McGuinty has a chance. Or maybe we'll all be surprised. Surprises are always good for New Democrats. :P


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 30, 2011, 12:57:15 PM
Apparently those new riding polls have the NDP in the lead in Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Sudbury, but still down in Thunder Bay-Superior North.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 30, 2011, 01:13:11 PM
Thunder Bay - Atikokan
()

Thunder Bay - Superior North
()

http://netnewsledger.com/2011/09/30/forum-research-poll-shows-ndp-surge-in-thunder-bay-atikokan/

Sudbury

NDP - 38%
Lib - 37%
PC - 19%
Green - 4%

http://www.northernlife.ca/news/localNews/2011/09/30-OFL-polls-liberals-ndp.aspx


If these seats fall to the NDP, Liberals will become the third party in Northern Ontario in the next election.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on September 30, 2011, 01:25:07 PM
Holmes! you forgot my favourite one!

Bramalea-Gore-Malton:

Jagmeet Singh NDP: 34.1%
Kuldip Kular Lib: 31.6%
Sanjeev Manji Con: 26.4%
Pauline Thomhan Green: 6%

http://rabble.ca/babble/ontario/ontario-2011-election-campaign-3 (sorry couldn't get that pretty graffical representation :P)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 30, 2011, 03:44:38 PM
Gravelle polled over 70% in 2003, fwiw...


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 30, 2011, 03:51:58 PM
Here they all are  (bc the images weren't working well)

Trinity-Spadina:

Rosario Marchese NDP: 47%

Sarah Thomson Lib: 33%

Mike Yen Con: 12%

Tim Grant Green: 7%

 

Timmins-James Bay:

Gilles Bisson NDP: 46.9%

Al Spacek Con: 33.4%

Leonard Rickard Lib: 15.4%

Angela Plant Green: 2.8%

 

Thunder Bay-Superior North:

Michael Gravelle Lib: 34.9%

Steve Mantis NDP: 33.9%

Anthony LeBlack Con: 25.4%

Scott Kyle Green: 5.3%

 

Thunder Bay-Atikokan:

Mary Kozorys NDP: 37.4%

Bill Mauro Lib: 32%

Fred Gilbert Con: 26%

Jonathan Milnes Green: 4.2%

 

Sudbury:

Paul Loewenberg NDP: 37.9%

Rick Bartolucci Lib: 37%

Gerry Labelle Con: 19.3%

Pat Rogerson Green: 4.1%

 

Parkdale-High Park:

Cheri DiNovo NDP: 46.7%

Cortney Pasternak Lib: 32%

Joe Ganetakos Con: 15.3%

Justin Trottier Green: 4.6%

 

Bramalea-Gore-Malton:

Jagmeet Singh NDP: 34.1%

Kuldip Kular Lib: 31.6%

Sanjeev Manji Con: 26.4%

Pauline Thomhan Green: 6%

 

Beaches-East York:

Michael Prue NDP: 44.1%

Helen Burstyn Lib: 33.1%

Chris Menary Con: 17.8%

Shawn Ali Green: 2.5%

 

York South-Weston:

Paul Ferriera NDP: 44%

Laura Albanese Lib: 36%

Lan Daniel Con: 15.2%

Keith Jarret Green: 3.3%


I'm disappointed that they didn't do Ottawa Centre.

I'll have to look at our numbers, run some math and make a deduction from that.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 30, 2011, 03:53:52 PM
Can I just say that I totally approve of the attempt to turn a corner of Toronto suburbia into a sort of Canadian Southall?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 30, 2011, 03:58:53 PM
wtf is a southall


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Verily on September 30, 2011, 04:15:11 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southall

Place where lots of South Asians live, I guess. Although I don't think Southall was that far ahead of parts of Mississauga or Scarborough on that.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 30, 2011, 04:30:59 PM
These are definitely more plausible than the earlier poll given the strength of the NDP incumbents in Toronto, but note that this still has the Liberals, relative to 2007, at +7 in Beaches-East York, +3 in Parkdale-High Park, and +2 in Trinity-Spadina, obviously all in the opposite direction from the province. I'd say this probably isn't great news if you're hoping for an NDP pickup in Ottawa Centre. (And probably not if you're a Conservative in north Toronto either).


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 30, 2011, 04:31:41 PM
Peel (Mississauga and Brampton) has a looooot of south asians.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brampton
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississauga#Demographics

"Brampton has 510,000 people. Brampton has the largest concentration of South Asians in Canada, making up 36% of Brampton's population"

Mississauga:
"South Asian   136,750   21.6"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough,_Ontario
"South Asian residents make up 22.0% of the population"


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 30, 2011, 04:37:35 PM
Also it turns out Southall is a fictional place not a municipality. It's an arbitrary neighbourhood. Places like Malton or Malvern are very very south asian. The main mall in Malton has more Hindi on their signs than it has English.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malton,_Ontario

also this
()


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 30, 2011, 04:42:23 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southall

Place where lots of South Asians live, I guess. Although I don't think Southall was that far ahead of parts of Mississauga or Scarborough on that.

It was a reference to the very special politics of Southall :)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 30, 2011, 05:11:06 PM
From http://www.punditsguide.ca


Bramlea
39.58% south asian

Miss BrSou
27.99% South Asian

Markham U
39.04% chinese
25.73% South Asian

Oak R Mark
22.11% Chinese

Richmond Hill
23.55% Chinese

Thornhill
36.63% Jewish

Scar SW
15.25% South Asian

Trinity Spa
17.63% Chinese

Egl Law
23.18% Jewish

Willowdale
31.19% Chinese

York Centre
24.36% Jewish

York West
19.03% Black
18.47% South Asian

Scar RR
31.12% Chinese
29.92% South Asian

Scar C
21.33% South Asian

Scar Guild
28.64% South Asian

Scar Agin
45.53% Chinese

York S Wstn
19.63% Black


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 30, 2011, 06:07:31 PM
I was checking out Singh's facebook page the other day, and his campaign videos are all shot in the neighbourhoods, and the place looks like suburban hell. Not the kind of place that votes NDP.  So, good news all around.

And yeah, I think the Liberals will probably win Ottawa Centre at this point. It's a lot like those downtown Toronto ridings where the Liberals are getting a bump from people scared of the Tories even though strategic votes make no sense there.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 30, 2011, 07:08:23 PM
I was checking out Singh's facebook page the other day, and his campaign videos are all shot in the neighbourhoods, and the place looks like suburban hell. Not the kind of place that votes NDP.  So, good news all around.

And yeah, I think the Liberals will probably win Ottawa Centre at this point. It's a lot like those downtown Toronto ridings where the Liberals are getting a bump from people scared of the Tories even though strategic votes make no sense there.

It's not caused by strategic voting. There are, to be sure, low-information voters everywhere who don't understand how ridings work, but there's no reason to think they would have suddenly increased this time around in a few concentrated geographical areas.

It has to do with the fact that in the very same year as Stephen Harper showed very skillfully how to win affluent suburbia and his rural base at the same time, and Jack Layton showed equally skillfully how to win urban centres and traditional industrial workers at the same time, both provincial opposition leaders seem to be ignoring these lessons and campaigning as if they're running in Ohio.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on September 30, 2011, 08:37:52 PM
I was checking out Singh's facebook page the other day, and his campaign videos are all shot in the neighbourhoods, and the place looks like suburban hell. Not the kind of place that votes NDP.  So, good news all around.

And yeah, I think the Liberals will probably win Ottawa Centre at this point. It's a lot like those downtown Toronto ridings where the Liberals are getting a bump from people scared of the Tories even though strategic votes make no sense there.

It's not caused by strategic voting. There are, to be sure, low-information voters everywhere who don't understand how ridings work, but there's no reason to think they would have suddenly increased this time around in a few concentrated geographical areas.

It has to do with the fact that in the very same year as Stephen Harper showed very skillfully how to win affluent suburbia and his rural base at the same time, and Jack Layton showed equally skillfully how to win urban centres and traditional industrial workers at the same time, both provincial opposition leaders seem to be ignoring these lessons and campaigning as if they're running in Ohio.

I'll add than McGuinty Liberals seems to be able to manage with competence an electoral campaign, which is a thing than federal Liberals have forgot since a couple of years.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on September 30, 2011, 08:50:44 PM
I would also add, there are some who vote on the idea of better go with the devil I know rather than the one I don't.  While this doesn't impact the NDP much, it might explain why some who voted Tory this past May in the federal election will vote for McGuinty.  Also a lot comes down to margins too.  While each party has their areas of strength, a 5% shift for any party results in about 20 seats so that is what makes it tough to predict.  Southern Ontario has a high population density relative to the rest of Canada so you have a whole whack of ridings that are quite similiar and will go the same way.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on September 30, 2011, 10:10:27 PM
Progressive Conservatives - 34
Liberals - 32
New Democrats - 29
Greens - 5

http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/111011ENG.pdf



Of course, I have no sense of whether or not Leger is a good pollster.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on September 30, 2011, 10:18:05 PM
Oh, that's great. :) Honestly, all Canadian polls are okay. I think it's Compas that's really bias towards Consevatives though, and I believe that Nanos was the most accurate in the federal, fwiw. Harris-Decima was good too. Speaking of Nanos,

Lib - 37.7% (-0.4%)
PC - 34.4% (-0.3%)
NDP - 25.5% (+1.2%)
Green - 2.0% (-0.7%)

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F11-T504.pdf

Hardly any change, though. I'd like to see more polling to see if Leger or Nanos is correct.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on September 30, 2011, 11:32:14 PM
Progressive Conservatives - 34
Liberals - 32
New Democrats - 29
Greens - 5

http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/111011ENG.pdf



Of course, I have no sense of whether or not Leger is a good pollster.

Why are you quoting my projection from earlier :D oh that's a new poll from reliable firm leger :D


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 01, 2011, 12:12:03 AM
Angus Reid

PC: 34 (-2)
Lib: 33 (+1)
NDP: 26 (-)
Grn: 6 (-)

Usually the NDP vote goes down in these close races.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 01, 2011, 09:28:24 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfoEtvMwGKw
http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/topic/cityvote_ontario_2011/article/157134--cityvote-2011-riding-profile-bramalea-gore-malton

Could a victory for the NDP here be a blueprint for future wins in the region? Great local candidate, a grassroots campaign... I'll actually be devastated if Singh doesn't pull through again.

(favoruite line from the second video - 7% unemployment, better than rest of Ontario and rest of Canada!)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 01, 2011, 11:00:30 AM
Brampton-Springdale is another possible future pick up in the region, due to the high Indo-Canadian population


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 01, 2011, 03:04:23 PM
Speaking of Ottawa Centre, if the 308 guy of all people is predicting an NDP win, I wouldn't be too nervous. :P

I enjoy how he thinks Gilles will get 65% of the vote. But it'll be 50NDP - 30PC - 15Lib. Maybe +/- 5% for the PC and Liberal numbers.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 01, 2011, 03:48:22 PM
I don't trust the 308 guy for anything, so it's no comfort reading his numbers.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 01, 2011, 06:19:38 PM
Yeah, 308 is a joke. He's like the new Dick Morris, some failed/flawed number-geek who is fed by the idiot media who wants to look hip with some articles from a "guy who crunches polls".

Came across some guy who said he normally voted NDP but was voting Liberal this time :) Nice to fall across. On an amusing "conservatives are people with anger issues" note, one of the people who canvassed today told me she once fell across a guy who took the lit, crumpled it up and threw it in her face. lol tories.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 01, 2011, 06:26:44 PM
One thing's for certain: unless Hudak wins a majority, Dad will still be premier.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 01, 2011, 06:29:11 PM
Yeah, 308 is a joke. He's like the new Dick Morris, some failed/flawed number-geek who is fed by the idiot media who wants to look hip with some articles from a "guy who crunches polls".

Came across some guy who said he normally voted NDP but was voting Liberal this time :) Nice to fall across.

He also dismesses many of his criticisms when people make them via comments.

When the elections is over, I'm going to advertise how much better I did. Maybe the media will take notice and not feed him so much.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 01, 2011, 06:30:35 PM
Yeah, 308 is a joke. He's like the new Dick Morris, some failed/flawed number-geek who is fed by the idiot media who wants to look hip with some articles from a "guy who crunches polls".

Came across some guy who said he normally voted NDP but was voting Liberal this time :) Nice to fall across.

He also dismesses many of his criticisms when people make them via comments.

When the elections is over, I'm going to advertise how much better I did. Maybe the media will take notice and not feed him so much.
Don't count on it. I know from experience. Even your "friends" will doubt you.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 01, 2011, 07:20:55 PM
Based on our marks, I have estimated that the Liberals have a one point lead here in Ottawa Centre (37-36). The Green vote has totally collapsed, and all the other parties are up from last time.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 01, 2011, 08:10:27 PM
One thing's for certain: unless Hudak wins a majority, Dad will still be premier.

Not necessarily.  In 2006 federally, Martin didn't try to hang on after winning fewer seats.  Now true he would have had to include the Bloc Quebecois, but I think it depends on the closeness too.  If its only a few seats difference, then yes, but if Hudak has 10-15 seats more than McGuinty then no.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 01, 2011, 08:20:05 PM
He can secure NDP support for his legislative agenda, so why not? Right now McGuinty will be barely short, just as Pearson was in the 1960s federally.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 01, 2011, 08:36:43 PM
No. If McGuinty loses by one seat, he steps down. If wins the PV but not the seat count, he may form an accord a la 87.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 01, 2011, 09:15:03 PM
The main mall in Malton has more Hindi on their signs than it has English.

Really? That's odd. Here, at least, signage in South Asian stores is always in English.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 02, 2011, 04:08:01 AM
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1063024--hudak-worried-mcguinty-and-horwath-will-reach-deal-to-govern?bn=1
Quote
Liberal sources told the Star that even if the Tories win up to 10 more seats than the Grits, yet fall short of the majority threshold of 54, McGuinty would appeal to union leaders to “lean on” Horwath to back his party.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 02, 2011, 09:10:55 AM
Why is Dalton McGuinty nicknamed 'Dad' by the way?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 02, 2011, 09:28:26 AM
Why is Dalton McGuinty nicknamed 'Dad' by the way?

I think it's because he's seen as being paternalistic.

Anyway, here's a picture of him when he was younger:

()


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 02, 2011, 09:57:02 AM
So I was right about the Coalition.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 02, 2011, 12:41:22 PM
Why is Dalton McGuinty nicknamed 'Dad' by the way?

He's a nanny statist father knows best kind of guy


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on October 02, 2011, 02:08:56 PM
It comes from a series of Bloomberg-esque micro-regulations. He's banned, among other things: junk food sales in public schools; pit bulls; smoking on patios; displaying cigarettes in stores (in Ontario now you have to ask for the employee to get you cigarettes from behind this weird screen); smoking in cars with children in them (even your own car and your own children). A certain flavour of libertarian-conservative really hates this sort of thing.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 02, 2011, 02:12:09 PM
It comes from a series of Bloomberg-esque micro-regulations. He's banned, among other things: junk food sales in public schools; pit bulls; smoking on patios; displaying cigarettes in stores (in Ontario now you have to ask for the employee to get you cigarettes from behind this weird screen); smoking in cars with children in them (even your own car and your own children). A certain flavour of libertarian-conservative really hates this sort of thing.
Okay, so all of these but the first belong in Arch-HP territory to me. Though there are worse things governments get up to, they are things I could absolutely not support under any circumstances.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on October 02, 2011, 02:25:28 PM
The law about not being allowed to display cigarettes in stores is actually federal. Can't blame "Premier Dad" for that.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 02, 2011, 02:39:16 PM
It comes from a series of Bloomberg-esque micro-regulations. He's banned, among other things: junk food sales in public schools; pit bulls; smoking on patios; displaying cigarettes in stores (in Ontario now you have to ask for the employee to get you cigarettes from behind this weird screen); smoking in cars with children in them (even your own car and your own children). A certain flavour of libertarian-conservative really hates this sort of thing.

Ontario's very own Tony Blair?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on October 02, 2011, 02:46:10 PM
The law about not being allowed to display cigarettes in stores is actually federal. Can't blame "Premier Dad" for that.

No, it's provincial - see, for example, this article from around the time:

Quote
TORONTO -- Only half of Ontario's 10,000 convenience store owners will be ready to comply with legislation banning the retail display of cigarettes, Dave Bryans, president of the Ontario Convenience Stores Association said Monday, citing the "impossible task" of conforming to new regulations set to come into effect at the end of May.

Despite being passed two years ago in the Smoke Free Ontario Act, Bryans said the province only informed convenience store owners of the new guidelines at the end of January, leaving many scrambling to find and to pay the estimated $600-$2,500 to retro-fit wall units.

http://www.canada.com/windsorstar/news/story.html?id=1ec674b6-afd1-4248-9f33-1140ef9764a1


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 02, 2011, 03:52:16 PM
Also, the pit bull genocide. (the canine equivelant of a genocide)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 02, 2011, 09:04:43 PM
New Nanos. I believe they're gonna be releasing one every night until Thursday.

Lib - 36.5% (-1.5)
PC - 34.0% (-1.3)
NDP - 26.8% (+2.2)
Green - 1.9% (+0.1)

Movin' on up.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 02, 2011, 09:12:50 PM
It comes from a series of Bloomberg-esque micro-regulations. He's banned, among other things: junk food sales in public schools; pit bulls; smoking on patios; displaying cigarettes in stores (in Ontario now you have to ask for the employee to get you cigarettes from behind this weird screen); smoking in cars with children in them (even your own car and your own children). A certain flavour of libertarian-conservative really hates this sort of thing.
  I thought smoking on patios is still legal, at least it was when I moved here in 2006.  As for the cigarette displays, they are provincial laws but every province has passed them now.  I should also note Britain plans to pass similiar ones even with a Conservative government.  Off course I don't personally agree with them, but hardly statist relatively speaking.  I should also note on a site free our beer on facebook, Premier Dad is used often due to the fact he opposes allowing convenience stores to sell alcohol (8 of the 10 provinces prohibit this and the two that do limit it to lower alcoholic beverages not all alcoholic beverages).  I have also heard some of his supporters use it since he is seen as a father like figure.  After all he seems pretty gentle and a nice man, not an aggressive type you see with most politicians, thus somewhat a father like figure.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 02, 2011, 09:27:02 PM
Also, the pit bull genocide. (the canine equivelant of a genocide)
Genocide =/= ethnic cleansing.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 02, 2011, 10:00:07 PM
The NDP's position on selling alcohol in convenience stores (that it should remain illegal) doesn't make any sense. It's the one major issue I have with the platform.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 03, 2011, 04:13:23 AM
It comes from a series of Bloomberg-esque micro-regulations. He's banned, among other things: junk food sales in public schools; pit bulls; smoking on patios; displaying cigarettes in stores (in Ontario now you have to ask for the employee to get you cigarettes from behind this weird screen); smoking in cars with children in them (even your own car and your own children). A certain flavour of libertarian-conservative really hates this sort of thing.
  I thought smoking on patios is still legal, at least it was when I moved here in 2006.  As for the cigarette displays, they are provincial laws but every province has passed them now.  I should also note Britain plans to pass similiar ones even with a Conservative government.
Uh, if there's one kind of politician from which a deviation from the nannystatist position can never be expected or considered a possibility, it's a British Conservative.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 03, 2011, 06:27:25 AM
The NDP's position on selling alcohol in convenience stores (that it should remain illegal) doesn't make any sense. It's the one major issue I have with the platform.

I think it has more to do with the fact they don't want to undermine the unions in the LCBO.  But this could easily be corrected by limiting it to products that can be sold outside the LCBO (i.e. Beer, coolers, and Ontario wines).  I also suspect a lot from Ottawa are more open to the idea than elsewhere in the province after all most do buy their alcohol at convenience stores just on the Quebec side of the river. 

My point is any group that thinks a law is heavy handed will call the premier, premier Dad, sort of the view he knows better than you or I, much like a father with a child.

Also what other issues in the platform do you have a problem with for curiosity as I don't think there is a single person out there who agrees with anyone party on every single issue.  You vote for the party who you agree with the most.  After all you take 10 different issues and you put ten people in a room and ask each for the opinion on each issue, I doubt a single person would give the same answer to all ten questions.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 03, 2011, 07:27:08 AM
The NDP's position on selling alcohol in convenience stores (that it should remain illegal) doesn't make any sense. It's the one major issue I have with the platform.

Also what other issues in the platform do you have a problem with for curiosity as I don't think there is a single person out there who agrees with anyone party on every single issue.  You vote for the party who you agree with the most.  After all you take 10 different issues and you put ten people in a room and ask each for the opinion on each issue, I doubt a single person would give the same answer to all ten questions.

It's true, convenience stores here have to compete with their Quebec counterparts who can sell liquor. In fact, with the tax difference, many people go to Quebec anyways for booze.

There are other parts of the platform I oppose, but that's one of them. I suppose not wanting to do away with the Catholic school board is another big issue, but it's not been brought up this campaign.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 03, 2011, 07:33:45 AM
I went to school in a Catholic school board, so...


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on October 03, 2011, 07:43:57 AM
I went to school in a Catholic school board, so...

So did i... and i full support killing the Catholic school board, for both moral and financial reasons.

With the NDP rising in pretty much every poll we have seen, why would we not be leading in Ottawa centre? have we seen regional numbers that would suggest thats a lost race? I could see the strategic voting being played out in Ottawa as well since the tories can pick up urban seats there.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 03, 2011, 08:44:08 AM
The newspaper endorsements are now in.  The National Post endorsed the PCs as expected, while the Toronto Star endorsed the Liberals.  This is really no surprise as they only endorse NDP if they have a better chance at beating the Tories, while never the Tories.  The Globe and Mail also endorsed the Liberals.  I usually find them the least biased as they have endorsed both the Tories and Liberals equally, after all they endorsed Harper in the last three elections, but the Liberals in 2000 and 2004.  They only endorsed the NDP once during the 1991 BC election so not exactly an NDP friendly paper.  Anyone know of other endorsements as well as endorsements for other provinces?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 03, 2011, 10:10:09 AM
Just voted for Gilles Bisson. Hoping for a win in Ottawa-Center, Hatman! :)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 03, 2011, 11:19:16 AM
The Citizen endorsed that waste of sperm Lister. How painful and stupid. But it's hard for me to take a paper that also endorses the far-right maniac Hillier seriously.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 03, 2011, 11:36:06 AM
New Nanos. I believe they're gonna be releasing one every night until Thursday.

Lib - 36.5% (-1.5)
PC - 34.0% (-1.3)
NDP - 26.8% (+2.2)
Green - 1.9% (+0.1)

Movin' on up.

Well, those numbers are quite encouraging. I don't know what other pollsters say, but it looks like Hudak is anything but assured to win a plurality.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on October 03, 2011, 12:32:07 PM
I know endorsements don't necessarily mean anything, but Desmon Tutu just endrosed Anil Nadoo In Ottawa Centre? who knew eh!

http://www.icontact-archive.com/yiOThMH64xlcbGhSe3uwC-RAQ4Lq6EPD?w=1


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 03, 2011, 12:52:12 PM
I went to school in a Catholic school board, so...

So?

I know endorsements don't necessarily mean anything, but Desmon Tutu just endrosed Anil Nadoo In Ottawa Centre? who knew eh!

http://www.icontact-archive.com/yiOThMH64xlcbGhSe3uwC-RAQ4Lq6EPD?w=1

Yeah, it's all the buzz in the campaign office.


By the way, some of the polls out today show a bit of a dip in the NDP vote, so Im a bit concerned.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on October 03, 2011, 01:15:25 PM
what do those polls look like then?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 03, 2011, 01:39:21 PM
Another Nanos sez PC 36.4, LIB 35.9, NDP 25.7, GRN 1.2

Ekos sez LIB 37.8, PC 30.6, NDP 22.7, GRN 7.3

Cross fingers that Ekos is correct.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 03, 2011, 01:42:07 PM
Another Nanos sez PC 36.4, LIB 35.9, NDP 25.7, GRN 1.2

Ekos sez LIB 37.8, PC 30.6, NDP 22.7, GRN 7.3

Cross fingers that Ekos is correct.


What's with the disparity with the Greens?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 03, 2011, 01:47:59 PM
Another Nanos sez PC 36.4, LIB 35.9, NDP 25.7, GRN 1.2

Ekos sez LIB 37.8, PC 30.6, NDP 22.7, GRN 7.3

Cross fingers that Ekos is correct.


What's with the disparity with the Greens?

Nanos has always been weird with the Greens, most recently in May. I believe they don't prompt them by name, which is rather stupid and ends up giving them extremely low numbers. Something between 3 and 6% seems accurate for the Greens this year, maybe nearer to the high range of that given that they've increased their support a tad since the start of the campaign. Still off the 2007 high, which is to be expected in such a closely-fought polarized campaign.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on October 03, 2011, 01:52:51 PM
Another Nanos sez PC 36.4, LIB 35.9, NDP 25.7, GRN 1.2

Ekos sez LIB 37.8, PC 30.6, NDP 22.7, GRN 7.3

Cross fingers that Ekos is correct.

Thaty EKOS poll looks out of whack, no one has had the Liberals that high or the NDP that low in a good while... i will wait to see more polls before i believe that one.

The tories are starting to be (ok get?) desperate, Hudak is full supporting a homophobic and rather hateful piece of literature; while the liberals sound childish and stubborn by being so emphatic about not working with anyone if they don't win... The NDP coming off the high of basically winning a winnerless leaders debate and with all the momentum i doubt they would have dropped below 25%


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 03, 2011, 04:24:35 PM
Sun Media endorsed no one.  The Tories ought not like that as they usually are some of the biggest Tory cheerleaders.  Also the Windsor Star who usually endorses the Tories endorsed the Liberals.  Not that this totally matters what it comes to results but always interesting nonetheless.

The Ekos and Nanos poll don't seem to jibe well so hopefully with the next set of polls we can get a better idea which one is more accurate.  As for the NDP falling back, I suspect Hudak and McGuinty's rejection of any coalition may hurt them as few actually believe they can win outright so if they cannot influence either party it kind of defeats the point of voting for them.  Also due to economic turmoil I think many would rather have a majority government than minority government so we can have some stability.  Still we shall see on election night how things turn out.  I think a majority for either party is still possible but they need a strong last minute swing in their favour, more importantly one party needs to pull out in front in the 905 belt and whichever one can do this will be able to win a majority.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 03, 2011, 04:32:11 PM
The NDP's position on selling alcohol in convenience stores (that it should remain illegal) doesn't make any sense. It's the one major issue I have with the platform.

Also what other issues in the platform do you have a problem with for curiosity as I don't think there is a single person out there who agrees with anyone party on every single issue.  You vote for the party who you agree with the most.  After all you take 10 different issues and you put ten people in a room and ask each for the opinion on each issue, I doubt a single person would give the same answer to all ten questions.

It's true, convenience stores here have to compete with their Quebec counterparts who can sell liquor. In fact, with the tax difference, many people go to Quebec anyways for booze.

There are other parts of the platform I oppose, but that's one of them. I suppose not wanting to do away with the Catholic school board is another big issue, but it's not been brought up this campaign.

I disagree with the Catholic school position as well.  John Tory was raked rightfully so for his, so it seems hypocritical to have Catholic schools and no other religious schools.  Much of this though is historical as historically the public system was a de facto Protestant school so there was a need for a Catholic system for the minority who were not Protestants.  As for alcohol in convenience stores, I support allowing beer and wine and other low alcoholic beverages (Under 20% alcohol), but not hard liquor (although I have no objection to private stores selling it if they only sell alcoholic beverages).  Much of the reason for lack of change here is the unions want to protect their jobs, you have groups like MADD who have become neo-prohibitionist rather than anti-drunk driving as well as some social conservatives on the right still see alcohol consumption as evil and want to restrict it heavily.  Off course I suspect someone living in Ottawa would more likely favour it than elsewhere since its already done in Quebec.  I am not a member of any party, but I support and oppose elements of all of them.  I support the HST, but oppose McGuinty's green energy plan.  Likewise I find Ontarioans often fearful of change, so it is pretty easy to scare people of any change no matter what the topic is.  Ontarioans and Canadians tend to be rather cautious in general, otherwise stick with what we know rather than what we don't.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on October 03, 2011, 08:33:43 PM

What's with the disparity with the Greens?

Nanos doesn't prompt ANY party names at all - he asks an open ended question "Which party will you  vote for?" without reading any list of party names. Ekos reads all party names since people have to punch a number on their keypad. Needless to say when you have a party like the Greens who have no campaign, no leader, no money, no ads...but a brand time that has a lot of "social desirability" - if you read it as a choice - you will get a big overestimate for them.

In the federal election the Greens got less than 4% in Ontario and believe me Elizabeth May was getting saturation publicity compared to the no-name Ontario Green leader whose name escapes me. They will get about 2.5% of the vote when the dust settles.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 03, 2011, 09:40:49 PM

What's with the disparity with the Greens?

Nanos doesn't prompt ANY party names at all - he asks an open ended question "Which party will you  vote for?" without reading any list of party names. Ekos reads all party names since people have to punch a number on their keypad. Needless to say when you have a party like the Greens who have no campaign, no leader, no money, no ads...but a brand time that has a lot of "social desirability" - if you read it as a choice - you will get a big overestimate for them.

In the federal election the Greens got less than 4% in Ontario and believe me Elizabeth May was getting saturation publicity compared to the no-name Ontario Green leader whose name escapes me. They will get about 2.5% of the vote when the dust settles.
  I suspect Nanos is closer to what the Greens will actually get.  They have been virtually invisible and when that happens usually they don't do to well.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 04, 2011, 07:56:10 AM
New Forum poll has NDP ahead in Sudbury and Bramalea-Gore-Malton. :) But behind in both Windsor districts. :( Of course, they're riding polls, but the results are better than Forum's last riding polls.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1064105--poll-reinforces-minority-prediction


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 04, 2011, 08:01:44 AM
They didn't do Ottawa Centre!!!???

For f's sake!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 04, 2011, 08:06:07 AM
They didn't do Ottawa Centre!!!???

For f's sake!

If swing voters see that the NDP is ahead, they'll be less likely to vote Liberal?

:P


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 04, 2011, 08:24:03 AM
They didn't do Ottawa Centre!!!???

For f's sake!

If swing voters see that the NDP is ahead, they'll be less likely to vote Liberal?

:P

Maybe, but it seems like nothing will convince those idiots. (sorry, it's morning and I'm running on very little sleep)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on October 04, 2011, 08:35:13 AM
Have things really stalled that much in Ottawa Centre?

They also didn't cover London-Fanshawe, yet looked at both LNC and LW?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on October 04, 2011, 08:51:04 AM
They didn't do Ottawa Centre!!!???

For f's sake!

If swing voters see that the NDP is ahead, they'll be less likely to vote Liberal?

:P

Maybe, but it seems like nothing will convince those idiots. (sorry, it's morning and I'm running on very little sleep)

I enjoy grumpy Earl!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 04, 2011, 09:02:36 AM
They also confirm that the original "close race" in O-South was wrong, given that the Liberals are now up 7% there in this new poll. Gives me hope as to Orleans. I don't think we're trailing by 6, though we might be trailing because of all this bullsh**t created by our two useless sh**thead-councillors (Monette and Bloess) who are complaining about McNeely.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 04, 2011, 09:35:29 AM
Have things really stalled that much in Ottawa Centre?

They also didn't cover London-Fanshawe, yet looked at both LNC and LW?

because London-Fanshawe is in the bag for the NDP


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on October 04, 2011, 12:01:01 PM
Toda from Ekos Oct 2-3

All Voters: Lib 39.1%, PC 29.1%, NDP 24.5%, Green 6.0%, Others 1.4%

Likely Voters: Lib 39.6%, PC 31.9%, NDP 22.1%, Green 5.3%, Others 1.0%

So i'm comfortable now saying there is proof to counter strategic voting, the tories are only 5 points ahead of the NDP... they blew this election, it was theres to lose and it looks lost. The NDP vote is TO seems very low, that must include Scar/Etob/NY... the NDP need to be pushing the only vote that will produce change is the NDP but are people still dumb enough to believe they need to vote Liberal to stop the tories (Hartman in Ottawa Centre would probably say yes!) :)

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/FG-2011-10-04.pdf


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 04, 2011, 12:09:39 PM
Those Toronto numbers are a tad low. However, I think it is safe to say the NDP will win 6 seats there.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 04, 2011, 04:42:44 PM
If the PCs somehow finished third, then I'd laugh my ass off in joy. It would be the best thing to come out of this country since...

Also, today's Nanos showed a similar Liberal surge to 37-38%.

Also - heads up to those who care - I'm working as a returning officer (DRO) on election day, so I won't be online at all on Thursday. I got the ballots today ;)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 04, 2011, 04:47:41 PM
I have a feeling Conservatives will over perform in the polls and Liberals will under perform. Remember that Rae won a comfortable majority with only 37% of the vote, with the runners up at 32%. So if the polls are correct we might not be looking at a minority, but maybe a majority, depending on where the numbers are coming from.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 04, 2011, 05:08:07 PM
I think at this point a Tory majority is pretty much out of the picture.  Minority perhaps, in fact I could see McGuinty winning the popular vote but winning fewer seats as pretty much every poll shows the Liberals with a massive lead in Toronto while the neck and neck or some in cases the Tories even a bit ahead or slightly behind elsewhere thus unlike in the last federal election, there doesn't appear to be any region the Tories are racking up huge margins whereas the Liberals still are in Toronto even if their federal cousins no longer are.  Still I would give the Liberals an edge at this point in terms of seats over the Tories and I a Liberal majority albeit weaker one is still possible.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 04, 2011, 05:53:28 PM
I also wont be available on election night, as I will be at the "victory" party. But, I will be tweeting throughout the evening, if anyone has twitter.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 04, 2011, 06:32:49 PM
There will be no victory.

Dalton - I hate public transit and cities - McGunity will win another majority.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 04, 2011, 07:10:12 PM
I think with the recent polls it is pretty much a foregone conclusion the Liberals will win the most seats.  It is still possible it will be a Liberal minority although I highly doubt there will be a coalition rather an issue by issue basis.  And the NDP and PCs will probably both win more seats than last time around, although it looks like there is the possiblity of Tim Hudak getting a lower vote percetange than John Tory did which really says a lot about how pathetic a campaign he ran.  He probably will though get a lower share of the popular vote than Ernie Eves did which was not either a particularly good result for the PCs and certainly well below Mike Harris in 1999 or Stephen Harper in 2011 in Ontario which is more the high end for the PCs/Conservatives in Ontario.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 04, 2011, 07:55:36 PM
There will be no victory.

Dalton - I hate public transit and cities - McGunity will win another majority.

A Liberal minority would be a victory. NDP would keep Liberals in check for 2 years, until the next election. Especially if the NDP become the opposition. You never know - how low can Hudak go?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 04, 2011, 08:19:34 PM
It's smelling more and more like a Liberal Majority.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 04, 2011, 08:24:20 PM
But where are the numbers coming from? That's more important than the actual provincewide numbers. If, for example, the Liberals are "surging" due to people in Toronto and the GTA switching from PC to Liberal, with competition everywhere else in the province, Liberals might not get their majority. Or they might. Results might be wonky.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 05, 2011, 12:50:31 AM
Projection

LIB 42-58
PC 28-41
NDP 22-27


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 05, 2011, 01:01:07 AM

The PC and Liberal numbers are fairly reasonable although I think the NDP is overestimated.  I highly doubt they will outperform their federal counterparts who got 22 seats.  I agree it will be a good night, but 27 seems way too high.  I must say the most recent Angus-Reid poll just makes predicting harder.  Ipsos, Ekos, and Nanos all show the Liberals with a fairly solid lead but Angus-Reid comes out with the Tories slightly ahead.  Probably a rogue poll, but Angus-Reid does have a fairly good repulation for accuracy as does Nanos, so it will be interesting to see who is right.  Certainly if Ekos messes this one up much like the federal one, I suspect their credibility will be shot.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 05, 2011, 01:13:12 AM
The NDP is under-performing their federal numbers, but so is the largest party. Result = more NDP seats on less NDP votes.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 05, 2011, 03:33:31 AM
()

Anyone care to edit this to fit the provincial ridings?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 05, 2011, 04:20:43 AM
Also, my projection

()


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on October 05, 2011, 05:43:00 AM
Teddy, here you go:

()

Bigger version in the gallery (Election Maps - International). There are some I've done also that show the difference between the federal and provincial results, but they're not especially useful because they just show what we already know. There's also a blank one in the blank maps gallery.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 05, 2011, 07:53:14 AM
Most polls (Nanos, Ipsos, Forum, Ekos) show Liberals quite ahead, with PCs second, NDP third. So I guess I'll just post the interesting outlier.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44072/tories-edging-liberals-but-ontario-race-could-turn-in-final-hours/

PC - 36%
Lib - 33%
NDP - 26%


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 05, 2011, 07:55:13 AM
Teddy, here you go:

()

Bigger version in the gallery (Election Maps - International). There are some I've done also that show the difference between the federal and provincial results, but they're not especially useful because they just show what we already know. There's also a blank one in the blank maps gallery.

I meant my map, with the insets and numbers and names, but ok.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 05, 2011, 09:46:08 AM
Apparently even Abacus has us ahead. I'm hopeful about all this, but I stand ready to be disappointed.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 05, 2011, 09:50:37 AM
If you still think Hudak is going to win, you are crazy. Hudak is not going to win, so cheer up!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 05, 2011, 12:40:46 PM
So Ontario seems set to return to its usual basic pattern? By which I mean very different patterns of support in Federal and Provincial elections.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 05, 2011, 01:03:46 PM
I want to be optimistic. :) I am always ready to a disappointment but it seems Ontarians are about to make the right choice.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 05, 2011, 02:10:10 PM
Andrew Lister is really stepping up his game. He's littered Innes with a string of 7-8 huge signs and now he's plastered them with stuff like "the Ottawa sh**tizen endorses" or "Rainer Bloess endorses". I'm very happy I didn't vote for Bloess in the last local elections, given how much of a useless rightie scumbag he is.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on October 05, 2011, 02:14:20 PM
So Ontario seems set to return to its usual basic pattern? By which I mean very different patterns of support in Federal and Provincial elections.

This is actually kind of complicated, since prior to the 1980's the OLP was basically a rural conservative party, while in the 1990's the voting patterns were actually pretty similar at both levels but the seat results were very different because the provincial PC vote was split federally. So voting for different parties in a parallel ideological space is actually pretty unusual.

I really think that even if McGuinty is held to a minority or even if Hudak narrowly wins, this election is one big own goal by the opposition parties. The conditions were present to replicate the federal result and really send the Liberals into strange-death zone; McGuinty is not well-loved and looked totally underwater in the polls a year ago even when Hudak and Horwath had low name recognition. And the local PC & NDP organizations in Toronto are newly energized by the federal result. But both opposition parties seem like they're actively trying to get anyone who isn't an angry populist to vote Liberal. Their platforms are just basically a random collection of cost-of-living related price interventions with no interesting campaign themes or policy initiatives. It reminds me of that period in spring 2008 when both McCain and Clinton decided that the thing to do was a "gas tax holiday" and Obama pointed out that this was just a dumb gimmick. Certainly I'm not asking for the reverse - a politics so elitist that it underperforms in the manufacturing areas (*cough* Democratic Party *cough*) - but as the recent federal election showed, it's not impossible to carry North Toronto and the farmlands together, nor to carry both the central city and the SW rust belt.

This third line here is the killer, from the recent EKOS poll - it's not an outlier; other subsamples are showing the same thing. (It goes LIB-NDP-PC).
()


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 05, 2011, 02:16:04 PM
Today's OLP is the "Big Blue Machine" whereas today's PCO is the OLP of yesteryear.

The NDP, of course, is still the NDP.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 05, 2011, 03:03:24 PM
Andrew Lister is really stepping up his game. He's littered Innes with a string of 7-8 huge signs and now he's plastered them with stuff like "the Ottawa sh**tizen endorses" or "Rainer Bloess endorses". I'm very happy I didn't vote for Bloess in the last local elections, given how much of a useless rightie scumbag he is.

Funny how Bloess and Monette  used to be Liberals.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 05, 2011, 03:18:45 PM
Andrew Lister is really stepping up his game. He's littered Innes with a string of 7-8 huge signs and now he's plastered them with stuff like "the Ottawa sh**tizen endorses" or "Rainer Bloess endorses". I'm very happy I didn't vote for Bloess in the last local elections, given how much of a useless rightie scumbag he is.

Funny how Bloess and Monette  used to be Liberals.

Hell, Bloess even ran for the federal Liberal nomination in 2009 or something!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 05, 2011, 05:04:41 PM
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44072/tories-edging-liberals-but-ontario-race-could-turn-in-final-hours/

PC - 36%
Lib - 33%
NDP - 26%

Angus-Reid now saying 37% Lib, 33% PC, 26% NDP. Weird how they'd fit in one more one-day poll before the election, but maybe they didn't wanna be the odd ones out.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 05, 2011, 05:13:58 PM
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44072/tories-edging-liberals-but-ontario-race-could-turn-in-final-hours/

PC - 36%
Lib - 33%
NDP - 26%

Angus-Reid now saying 37% Lib, 33% PC, 26% NDP. Weird how they'd fit in one more one-day poll before the election, but maybe they didn't wanna be the odd ones out.

Interesting. Changing their numbers this quickly is a bit ARG-like or something.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 05, 2011, 05:16:02 PM
Polling companies often close ranks like this. Remember, they are (first and foremost) companies.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 05, 2011, 05:18:55 PM
Alright, here are the ridings I expect the NDP to win. Bolded will be squeakers, could go either way.

Timmins-James Bay
Timiskaming-Cochrane
Nickel Belt
Algoma-Manitoulin
Sudbury
Thunder Bay-Atikokan
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Kenora-Rainy River

London-Fanshawe
Welland
Hamilton Centre
Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Toronto-Danforth
Trinity-Spadina
Beaches-East York
Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
York South-Weston
Windsor West
Ottawa Centre
Bramalea-Gore-Malton


And they'll probably be close in these, but not close enough.

Scarborough Southwest
Oshawa
Windsor-Tecumseh
Sarnia-Lambton
Essex

Popular vote will be 26% +/- .5%


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 05, 2011, 08:50:52 PM
Angus-Reid says NDP at 78% in Northern Ontario.

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2011.10.05_Ontario_Final.pdf

l o l.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 05, 2011, 09:15:16 PM
Angus-Reid says NDP at 78% in Northern Ontario.

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2011.10.05_Ontario_Final.pdf

l o l.

lolwut

epic fail.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on October 05, 2011, 09:48:06 PM
Bad crosstab.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 05, 2011, 10:18:30 PM
Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 05, 2011, 10:22:03 PM
I haven't done a seat by seat analysis, but my guess is Liberals barely squeak out a majority, PCs in the mid to upper 30s and NDP 15-20 seats.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 05, 2011, 11:51:51 PM
Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on October 06, 2011, 12:56:26 AM
Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)


Looks pretty good to me. I'm tossup on that Thunder Bay seat remaining in Liberal hands, but I suspect you are probably right. I'm also not confident of the chances of Brant flipping to the Tories. I was wondering on the tram this morning about the ethnic demographic vote thing in SRR - nobody's really been talking about it in the past couple of weeks. Is there any feasible chance of it going NDP? Also a little bit tossup on Windsor West, although I think it's more likely to stay Liberal than that Thunder Bay seat, since the NDP has been doing so well in Northern Ontario. I would like to see you win Ottawa Centre, but from what you've been saying, I think you're probably right. Early on in the campaign, I had hopes for PC gains in Niagara Falls and St Catherines, but the way things are going, I don't think there will be any movement there... not unless the polls have under-estimated the PC vote on a similar scale to what happened federally (and I think that's unlikely).

I also suspect the Mississauga South margin to be lower - I was of the opinion that it tends to be the more conservative part of the area, and that Paul Szabo was much of the reason it was held by the Liberals in 2008 federally. In 2007 its Liberal vote was lower than any of the Mississauga seats (plus the two Brampton seats and Bramalea-Gore-Malton), with the exception of Brampton West, which was lower by less than 0.5%. It also had a higher PC vote than any of those seats (I sort of always put those eight seats together as a group in my mind). I know you well enough to know that you have a reason for that, so this is more a question of why did you estimate the Liberal vote to be higher there than in the other seats in the region? Maybe because it's more conservative, you've pegged it as being more resistant to a swing to the NDP?

In short, I agree with your projection, my only real hesitation would be Brant and even that would be only momentary... I agree with your prediction.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 01:39:49 AM
Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)


I went from 21 unique views on a regular day 70 or so during the election, to 35,000 on e-day. Expect something similar.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 01:42:45 AM
Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

Betting is illegal of course, but you have the Tories at 41 and I have them at 24-40. My average is therefore 32.

If we ever meet, and the Tories get over 37 seats, I'd like to buy you a coffee; would you like to return the favour of they get below 36?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on October 06, 2011, 07:24:12 AM
Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)


Can you give some insight into why Kenora-Rainy River will flip to the tories? I know Howard is not running again and personal popularity was a big factor... but have there been polls or have we seen a big swing? Federally it went Tory yes, but the tories are bleeding support right now (ok its more like a paper cut, but they are stuck in the mid-30s) But the NDP is up... probably not 78% up but still i would expect (hope!) to be able to retain a held seat like with Welland? Plus the huge Manitoba victory has to have some spill as this area of ontario has always been more closely linked to Manitoba then the rest of ontario. Just wondering about the logic... all in all i think the NDP will pull in around 18-22 depending on how the night goes (22 with them winning KRR, OC, WW, SSW)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 07:29:23 AM
Did you mistake federal and provincial numbers?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 06, 2011, 07:42:17 AM
I'm not the only one who thinks Kenora will go Tory. Look at electionpredictions.org. The seat is vacant, and the NDP has been having trouble winning it federally. I am fairly confident it will go Conservative.

Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

Betting is illegal of course, but you have the Tories at 41 and I have them at 24-40. My average is therefore 32.

If we ever meet, and the Tories get over 37 seats, I'd like to buy you a coffee; would you like to return the favour of they get below 36?

It is more then likely I have overestimated the Tories, as a last minute surge to the Liberals will make some of my predictions wrong. I guess I will buy you a coffee if the Tories get below 36, although I doubt it will be that bad of a night for them.
Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)


I went from 21 unique views on a regular day 70 or so during the election, to 35,000 on e-day. Expect something similar.

I averaged 100-200 before the election, 300-500 during the campaign, and the last couple of days have been 1000+. I don't see me getting 35,000 today, but then again it's just a provincial election.

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)


Looks pretty good to me. I'm tossup on that Thunder Bay seat remaining in Liberal hands, but I suspect you are probably right. I'm also not confident of the chances of Brant flipping to the Tories. I was wondering on the tram this morning about the ethnic demographic vote thing in SRR - nobody's really been talking about it in the past couple of weeks. Is there any feasible chance of it going NDP? Also a little bit tossup on Windsor West, although I think it's more likely to stay Liberal than that Thunder Bay seat, since the NDP has been doing so well in Northern Ontario. I would like to see you win Ottawa Centre, but from what you've been saying, I think you're probably right. Early on in the campaign, I had hopes for PC gains in Niagara Falls and St Catherines, but the way things are going, I don't think there will be any movement there... not unless the polls have under-estimated the PC vote on a similar scale to what happened federally (and I think that's unlikely).

I also suspect the Mississauga South margin to be lower - I was of the opinion that it tends to be the more conservative part of the area, and that Paul Szabo was much of the reason it was held by the Liberals in 2008 federally. In 2007 its Liberal vote was lower than any of the Mississauga seats (plus the two Brampton seats and Bramalea-Gore-Malton), with the exception of Brampton West, which was lower by less than 0.5%. It also had a higher PC vote than any of those seats (I sort of always put those eight seats together as a group in my mind). I know you well enough to know that you have a reason for that, so this is more a question of why did you estimate the Liberal vote to be higher there than in the other seats in the region? Maybe because it's more conservative, you've pegged it as being more resistant to a swing to the NDP?

In short, I agree with your projection, my only real hesitation would be Brant and even that would be only momentary... I agree with your prediction.
Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)


Looks pretty good to me. I'm tossup on that Thunder Bay seat remaining in Liberal hands, but I suspect you are probably right. I'm also not confident of the chances of Brant flipping to the Tories. I was wondering on the tram this morning about the ethnic demographic vote thing in SRR - nobody's really been talking about it in the past couple of weeks. Is there any feasible chance of it going NDP? Also a little bit tossup on Windsor West, although I think it's more likely to stay Liberal than that Thunder Bay seat, since the NDP has been doing so well in Northern Ontario. I would like to see you win Ottawa Centre, but from what you've been saying, I think you're probably right. Early on in the campaign, I had hopes for PC gains in Niagara Falls and St Catherines, but the way things are going, I don't think there will be any movement there... not unless the polls have under-estimated the PC vote on a similar scale to what happened federally (and I think that's unlikely).

I also suspect the Mississauga South margin to be lower - I was of the opinion that it tends to be the more conservative part of the area, and that Paul Szabo was much of the reason it was held by the Liberals in 2008 federally. In 2007 its Liberal vote was lower than any of the Mississauga seats (plus the two Brampton seats and Bramalea-Gore-Malton), with the exception of Brampton West, which was lower by less than 0.5%. It also had a higher PC vote than any of those seats (I sort of always put those eight seats together as a group in my mind). I know you well enough to know that you have a reason for that, so this is more a question of why did you estimate the Liberal vote to be higher there than in the other seats in the region? Maybe because it's more conservative, you've pegged it as being more resistant to a swing to the NDP?

In short, I agree with your projection, my only real hesitation would be Brant and even that would be only momentary... I agree with your prediction.

Liberals will do better in ridings like Brampton West and Mississauga South thanks to a smaller NDP vote, yes. As for Brant, it is one seat I am a bit hesitant on; if I am wrong about one riding it will be Brant (and hopefully Ottawa Centre! ;) )


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on October 06, 2011, 08:02:14 AM
I'm not the only one who thinks Kenora will go Tory. Look at electionpredictions.org. The seat is vacant, and the NDP has been having trouble winning it federally. I am fairly confident it will go Conservative.

True, but we have to remember that Federally all the northern ridings are different... so the ON KRR contains well Rainy River/Fort Frances which has a more left, labour bend/tradition to it. Howard has endorsed Sarah Campbell so its not like hes out of the picture... it hink it will be close, but i'm going to say the NDP will hold it, if only by the smallest margin, about 1% or so.

I'm seeing some predictions as high as 30seats for the NDP... my range is closer to 18-22


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 06, 2011, 08:03:46 AM
Krago did the redistribution based on provincial ridings, and Kenora-RR still would've gone Tory.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on October 06, 2011, 08:07:39 AM
Krago did the redistribution based on provincial ridings, and Kenora-RR still would've gone Tory.

Well thats disapointing... with how well the party is expecting to do, to lose the old leaders seat, thats gona sting.. plus it would have been nice to have another women in caucus.
I heard there was infighting after the nomination? anything on that?



Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 08:41:15 AM
Remember that federally Kenora has an incumbent as well. One that seems to be pretty popular, given his electoral record.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 06, 2011, 09:17:51 AM
Remember that federally Kenora has an incumbent as well. One that seems to be pretty popular, given his electoral record.

Right, but he had to defeat an incumbent to win in 2008.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 10:37:39 AM
Peterborough. Northumerland. Hastings. even Perth, Kent, Elgin.

These are areas that vote CPC but OLP.

Just because Kenora votes CPC does not mean they'll vote PCO


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 06, 2011, 10:57:03 AM
Peterborough. Northumerland. Hastings. even Perth, Kent, Elgin.

These are areas that vote CPC but OLP.

Just because Kenora votes CPC does not mean they'll vote PCO
Those seats have Liberal incumbents. Kenora-RR has no incumbent.

It's why Windsor West *should* be going NDP today, instead the candidate there ed things up royally, and will probably lose.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on October 06, 2011, 11:44:56 AM
Peterborough. Northumerland. Hastings. even Perth, Kent, Elgin.

These are areas that vote CPC but OLP.

Just because Kenora votes CPC does not mean they'll vote PCO
Those seats have Liberal incumbents. Kenora-RR has no incumbent.

It's why Windsor West *should* be going NDP today, instead the candidate there ed things up royally, and will probably lose.

Oh really? how the heck did he do that? i haven't been reading too much about Windsor West


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 06, 2011, 11:46:18 AM
When will we get the first results ?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 11:47:01 AM
Use google to find out his name, then google his name within the past week (http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/30/tories-and-liberals-would-let-children-starve-ndp-candidate/)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 11:48:27 AM
When will we get the first results ?
8 hours 30 minutes

About 9:15 local time is when things should start to come in.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 06, 2011, 11:59:19 AM
When will we get the first results ?
8 hours 30 minutes

About 9:15 local time is when things should start to come in.

8:30 EST ? Heck, that means I won't be able to know the results before tomorrow... :(


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on October 06, 2011, 12:06:28 PM
Really? thats it! ... thats Liberal dirty tactics at it again... digging up anything from a year or years ago to try and smear... this time in a riding the liberals might have lost. The guys a poverty activits! i'm surprised he didn't say Liberals and tories eat children at the way (the tories in particular) deal with poverty. Was it stupid to post yes, partisan yes... but do i remember posts i made a year ago on facebook? hell no! lol

Meh, hes no star candidate, and the riding should be competative regardless so i don't think its a total loss just yet, its not my top riding for a pick up. If someone decided that this was the reason they wont vote for the NDP they weren't really going to in the first place.

How many people think that homophobic hateful and dishonest piece of crap leaflet the tories were throwing about will hurt them? i doubt not much outside the 416 where really, they weren't going to win much anyway outside the old suburbs and with some ehtnic groups it might play well (sorry but its true, many newcomers and old white people are very socially conservative)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 12:08:55 PM
How accurate do you all think the polls are? Obviously not being on the ground I've no feeling for that. I ask because they've moved about so much.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on October 06, 2011, 12:15:33 PM
I think the polls should be about on par with: Libs 37-40%; PC 33-35%; NDP 21-25%... It will depend on how well the parties can pull the vote, sounds like its going to be a higher voter turnout as well so that could be a good thing for Mcguinty (an anti-tory vote) or a bad thing (a change vote for the NDP/Tories, more the NDP i think)
But what will be interesting/exciting will be all the three way races, this is going to be a very riding by riding election, all three parties have been very strategic to target key ridings they feel they can win/need to hold. Also regions are very different here so it depends on how accurate the samplings were.
In retrospect, regional large polls should be done instead of province wide polls.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 12:32:19 PM
9:15pm EST is when results should start coming in.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Franzl on October 06, 2011, 12:38:58 PM
9:15pm EST is when results should start coming in.

When do polls close? Seems pretty late.

Are their exit polls in provincal elections in Canada? Are they worthless American-like ones or are they Euro-style ones that can tell you within a point or two what the result is?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 12:45:40 PM
9pm


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2011, 12:56:08 PM
Exit polls would be pretty useless for Canadian elections, and all over the place. It would be sort of like exit polling for House elections.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 12:57:25 PM
Exit polls would be pretty useless for Canadian elections, and all over the place. It would be sort of like exit polling for House elections.

No more so than (say) Britain or France.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Franzl on October 06, 2011, 12:58:45 PM
Exit polls would be pretty useless for Canadian elections, and all over the place. It would be sort of like exit polling for House elections.

No more so than (say) Britain or France.

Yeah the British exit poll was extremely good last year.

I may be somewhat too used to Germany, Austria, etc., where they really nail it down to fractions of a point usually.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 01:05:59 PM
NB has an exit poll every election and everyone always wants to hear it.

PEI has never had one, and probably never will, nobody cares.

Depends on where you are.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: DL on October 06, 2011, 03:38:28 PM
There is not much point doing an exit poll in a provincial election in Canada. In Ontario for example all the polls close at 9pm, the province is all one time zone and within half an hour of the polls closing you have a pretty good idea of what the outcome is.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 03:56:28 PM
An hour after the polls close you know, within 10 sets, what's going to happen.

Also, my personal projection, updated
()


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 05:05:54 PM
LIVE
http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/watch-live.html


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 05:07:03 PM
Exit polls really only work in those that use proportional representation or FTFP elections where you get uniform swings.  If the swings are not uniform then they can be misleading.  Federally Ipsos usually does a large one but they don't interview people as they exit the station, but rather after they have voted and this is used more to track how certain demographics voted.  For example, their poll showed only 12% of Muslims went Conservative last May, but 54% of Jews did while in 2006 it was only 25% so that would explain why ridings like Thornhill or Mount Royal swung so heavily towards the Conservatives (even though they still didn't win Mount Royal).

Anyways, My guess is by 10:00 PM the networks will have projected a Liberal government, but it won't be until much later that the project it will be a minority or majority.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 05:11:23 PM
It would have to be very, very large for figures for small minority groups to be worth much, fwiw.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 05:17:56 PM
The Manitoba NDP was able to rack up very small wins in very many ridings. The Ontario Liberals are positioned to do something similar. A tie in the popular vote, Liberal-PC, means a Liberal majority.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 06, 2011, 06:37:35 PM
The Manitoba NDP was able to rack up very small wins in very many ridings. The Ontario Liberals are positioned to do something similar. A tie in the popular vote, Liberal-PC, means a Liberal majority.

And anything less than a PC majority means another McGuinty term. 2007 all over again.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2011, 06:44:36 PM
Teddy, you have the Soo between Liberal/NDP, yet Sudbury as Liberal?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on October 06, 2011, 06:45:56 PM
The Elections Ontario unofficial results seem to be going to be updated at a separate website: http://www.wemakevotingeasy.ca/


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2011, 07:11:13 PM
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Toronto Centre, Trinity-Spadina and Kenora-Rainy River polls will stay open an extra 30 minutes. Boo! Although, Kenora-Rainy River is really the only interesting one.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/10/06/results-delayed-in-four-ridings-as-poll-hours-extended/


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 07:56:52 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJ9y0A1kYYs The song at the start of this is awesome. I'll play it once we hit 9.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:00:28 PM
IT BEGINS


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:02:10 PM
Tories out to an early lead. 6 votes to 2, to 1, in some radom riding. Oxford it seems.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:02:48 PM
Kitchener Waterloo, PC,

4-1-1 already PC


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:04:22 PM
STUDENT VOTE
() student vote


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 08:18:13 PM
Lots of results up, but so early that they're uselessly early.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:19:10 PM
31L 27P 8N


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: 2952-0-0 on October 06, 2011, 08:22:19 PM
I'd like to see the look on Hudak's face if the PCs are ahead by a razor thin margin by popular vote but McGuinty remains in office.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 08:23:03 PM
wtf Chatham-Kent-Essex? 15/248 so still very early, but not quite lolearlylol early...

Though here's a good one for the latter: NDP lead in Eglinton-Lawrence!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:26:14 PM
Lib - 51
PC - 35
NDP - 12
to come - 10


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:27:46 PM
The Tories are ahead in Scarborough Agincourt. It's early, but it's not "20 votes" early. This is interesting for sure, usually it's a Liberal lock. This is a very Asian (chinese) area of the city, and the PC candidate has an Asian last name. Perhaps it's someone with local roots (like that dude NDP over in Malton) I'll be keeping an eye on it to see if this matters in any way.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:29:39 PM
Interesting in Parkdale, but due to the geography, who knows. Still, another riding for an eye.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:31:48 PM
Essex is trending NDP while both Windsor seats are more Liberal, interesting. Essex will be something I'll be keeping track of.

7 to come.
Lib 48
PC 39
NDP 13


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 08:32:58 PM
It looks like a Liberal win as I predicted, but it will be close either way.  Majority or minority, it looks like it will be only a few seats off so I think at this point it looks clear McGuinty will be premier for the next 2 years, the question is whether it will be four or not.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 08:34:07 PM
So far it seems like a strong rural/urban divide, with the Liberals dominating urban Ontario and PC dominating the rural areas.  Also CP24 just projected a Liberal win, but won't say whether a minority and majority.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:35:04 PM
NDP is doing worse than expected. The Liberals currently ahead in both Parkdale and TriSpa. Unless this trend changes, it's bad news for the NDP

Meanwhile, the Tories doing better than I expected


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:38:00 PM
Thunder Bay Atik is interesting, it is stronger Lib while it should be NDP.

NDP in second place in Kingston - I expected them to do somewhat well here.

Malton is neck and neck and neck.

ALSO CBC DECLARATION
LIBERAL GOVERNMENT


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 08:39:18 PM
Large parts of Toronto still have hardly anything in, so, caution with individual seats.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 08:40:12 PM
The GTA is still mostly red, but Southern Ontario is mostly blue i.e. much like the Tories federally in 2008 and 2006.  It looks like the rural/urban divide regardless of the result will be strong.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:40:57 PM
A tie in the popular vote, Liberal-PC, means a Liberal majority.

Currently, the parties are tied, 35.5 to 35.5, and yet the Liberals have 50 seats to the PC's 39 and NDP's 18


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: 2952-0-0 on October 06, 2011, 08:41:11 PM
From tomorrow there will be a lot more converts for electoral reform.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:42:10 PM
Parkdale and Agincourt are behaving normally now, but TriSpa is still leading for the Liberals.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 08:43:48 PM
NDP hold Welland.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 08:43:58 PM
I think the Liberals will probably win the popular vote due to the fact urban ridings tend to come in slower than rural, although it will probably by less than 5%, but we shall see.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:44:37 PM
Libs lock up Peel, with the possible exception of Malton.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 08:45:28 PM
I have a map on CBC of the federal and provincial results side by side and suprisingly very similiar map wise, the biggest difference appears to be in the GTA where the Liberals are dominating unlikely federally including the all important 905 belt.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 08:47:58 PM
If Trinity-Spadina is lost, then that would confirm (and then some) certain observations of Linus's.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 08:48:35 PM
Lots of orange in the North though, so the NDP doing well there and province wide there are doing not too bad.  The PCs doing a bit better than some predicted, but not enough to win, but maybe, although not necessarily enough to deny the Liberals.  I will say though Hudak's campaign this time around was similiar to Harper in 2004 so if a minority he could still win in two to three years if he runs a better campaign.  At least if the numbers hold up, he should stay on as leader unless the party's numbers plunge dramatically.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 08:49:53 PM
Lots of orange in the North though, so the NDP doing well there and province wide there are doing not too bad.

That was part of his point.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:51:00 PM
Ottawa Centre = Liberal according to the CBC. Sorry Earl.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 08:53:48 PM
NDP hold Kenora-Rainy River


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 08:57:00 PM
Essex is looking very good for the NDP.

NDP might not win in Weston.

A quarter of the polls in, in TriSpa and the Liberals still holding on.

Thornhill closer than expected, Libs nipping at the Tories heels.

PC Party will be seatless in the 416


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2011, 09:05:00 PM
If NDP loses in Trinity-Spadina and York-South Weston then blah forever. Especially if those give the Liberals a majority.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 09:06:07 PM
NDP fail to gain either Windsor seat. But gain Essex.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 09:06:11 PM
It looks like 308 underestimated Tory seat count as they are already ahead if you count just elected forget about leading.  It looks like the prediction of 48 Lib and 41 PC was not too far off, maybe a bit too generous for PCs but fairly close.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: 2952-0-0 on October 06, 2011, 09:06:56 PM
McGuinty has just called Rob Ford and Stephen Harper thanking them for their efforts tonight.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 09:08:07 PM
Although they bombed federally, I wonder if the Liberals are ahead due to the Condo polls.  Those have grown dramatically so if they are coming in faster than the older parts of the riding that could explain why the NDP is trailing.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 09:08:40 PM
The PC Party is not off on vote count but is off in Toronto; in terms of projections.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 09:09:43 PM
Although they bombed federally, I wonder if the Liberals are ahead due to the Condo polls.  Those have grown dramatically so if they are coming in faster than the older parts of the riding that could explain why the NDP is trailing.

Right now only a third of polls there are in. Do condo polls tend to come in early?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2011, 09:09:56 PM
Lots of fails for the NDP tonight, but there are some bright spots. Perhaps Ford getting elected was the worst thing to happen for the NDP for tonight.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: 2952-0-0 on October 06, 2011, 09:12:31 PM
Does anyone else notice that so many GTA races were between three candidates of the same ethnic or religious group?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 09:15:44 PM
Lots of fails for the NDP tonight, but there are some bright spots. Perhaps Ford getting elected was the worst thing to happen for the NDP for tonight.

In the context of the federal breakthrough, it looks pretty disappointing (even if things break the right way in all the tight races left). In the context of Ontario provincial politics, less so. This result will still be the best since the disaster of the Rae government. Hey, just eight years ago the NDP were down to seven seats and had not made a gain since 1990...


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2011, 09:17:58 PM
Of course. Like I said, there are bright spots. Looking at the ridings that the NDP won in May or came close, and beforehand never even had a shot (Scarborough-RR, Scarborough SW, B-G-M, to name a few), the NDP has come really close (and is leading in B-G-M). These ridings might have gone NDP if the Liberals hadn't surged in the past week.

And at the same time, some solid federal NDP seats are Liberal holds, too. So it's mixed.


Trinity-Spadina moving towards NDP a bit. And Oshawa must be the biggest fools' gold for the NDP, ever.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 09:20:04 PM
Ah, hurry up Toronto!

Anyways, there's a close race of (ahem) Shakespearian proportions in Perth-Wellington.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 09:21:02 PM
And Oshawa must be the biggest fools' gold for the NDP, ever.

That town is such a flirt.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 09:21:40 PM
Lib - 53
PC - 37
NDP - 17

Still a few undecided races



Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2011, 09:24:13 PM
Surprised to see both Thunder Bay ridings stay Liberal. Going against the grain in Northern Ontario.

Will Liberals get >10% in Timmins-James Bay? That brand is dead in my home riding.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 09:33:54 PM
We might not know until after the weekend or later as this may come down to recounts.  Either way I think McGuinty has 2 years guaranteed as you only need a few members to abstain to pass any bill.  And even if he gets a majority a few losses in by-elections could drop it to a minority.  I believe in Manitoba in 1988, the NDP got a majority, but due to a few defections on a budget bill, they got defeated in 1990.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 09:35:08 PM
We might not know until after the weekend or later as this may come down to recounts.  Either way I think McGuinty has 2 years guaranteed as you only need a few members to abstain to pass any bill.  And even if he gets a majority a few losses in by-elections could drop it to a minority.  I believe in Manitoba in 1988, the NDP got a majority, but due to a few defections on a budget bill, they got defeated in 1990.

Oh, absolutely. This could just be chapter one; a minority government is not always a stable place to be. What be the Ontario law on recounts? Loads of tight races.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2011, 09:35:40 PM
Bramalea-Gore-Malton is looking good for NDP. Trinity-Spadina, Sudbrury and York South-Weston are real nail bitters.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 09:35:58 PM
Pop Vote
Lib - 37.45%
PC - 35.31%
NDP - 22.94%
Grn - 3.03%


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 09:36:51 PM
I know its 0.1% different federally, but one can apply to a judge for a recount beyond that and I suspect most judges would be pretty lenient in this case considering the difference it could make.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 09:37:17 PM
Bramalea-Gore-Malton is looking good for NDP. Trinity-Spadina, Sudbrury and York South-Weston are real nail bitters.

Davenport too.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2011, 09:40:30 PM
Davenport is a lot closer than I thought it would be, but then again, Liberals doing phenomenal in the 416. Which explains Trinity-Spadina, York South-Weston, and maybe even Parkdale-High Park.

Rob Ford and Tim Hudak scared Toronto voters right back into Liberal arms, while most voters elsewhere in the province shied away from him. Still, it could've been worse for McGuinty outside of the GTA. Maybe next time.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2011, 09:42:05 PM
I think I'm ready to call York South-Weston for Liberals. And Liberals just might eek out Trinity-Spadina and Sudbury, barely.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 09:42:34 PM
NDP pull ahead in Trinity-Spadina. Extremely close still.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2011, 09:43:05 PM
NDP pull ahead in Trinity-Spadina. Extremely close still.

Where do you see this? Libs still ahead on Elections Ontario site.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on October 06, 2011, 09:43:22 PM
I know its 0.1% different federally, but one can apply to a judge for a recount beyond that and I suspect most judges would be pretty lenient in this case considering the difference it could make.

In Ontario, there is an automatic recount if the difference is less than 25 votes.
A candidate or an elector can ask a recount, but they have to pay a deposit of 200$, which is refunded if an error is found.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2011, 09:45:02 PM
Maybe it's time for Toronto to get a Liberal mayor, mmk.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 09:46:04 PM
NDP has won Bramalea-Gore-Malton so big win there.  They also won Kenora-Rainy River and Essex which went Conservative.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 09:47:10 PM
NDP pull ahead in Trinity-Spadina. Extremely close still.

Where do you see this? Libs still ahead on Elections Ontario site.

CBC site. Who also declare Bramalea-Gore-Malton for the NDP.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 09:49:34 PM
First NDP, or even CCF, win in Peel. Ever. I'll look up if the Progressives ever won here.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2011, 09:51:05 PM
NDP pull ahead in Trinity-Spadina. Extremely close still.

Where do you see this? Libs still ahead on Elections Ontario site.

CBC site. Who also declare Bramalea-Gore-Malton for the NDP.

I thought so, so I went there, thanks. York South-Weston getting really close too. Hoping Sudbury's not out of reach, but with 17 polls left, I dunno...

edit: actually YSW going more towards Liberals, so oh well.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 09:54:53 PM
Looking at the results now, I doubt we will know for sure if it is a minority or majority for a few days.  Also with McGuinty possibly being a seat or two off, do you think he may bribe a few opposition members with cabinet posts to cross the floor as this would give him a majority.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 09:57:24 PM
No, Peel county has never elected an NDPer, at Provincial or Federal level, since 1867. This includes the NDP, CCF, Progressives, etc.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 09:57:54 PM
It looks like Electionprediction.org was pretty close to spot on of all prediction sites.  They messed up badly on the federal election but did well here.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 09:58:06 PM
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell isn't over either.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2011, 09:58:56 PM
No, Peel county has never elected an NDPer, at Provincial or Federal level, since 1867. This includes the NDP, CCF, Progressives, etc.

So while it's great that Singh has been elected, and we know that it wasn't Layton coattails, there's still an uphill battle for the NDP in that area. But, now there's a blueprint. I know that Singh worked really hard.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on October 06, 2011, 09:59:44 PM
The NDP lead in Trinity-Spanida is still growing.

850 votes, now.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 10:01:53 PM
Undecided ridings with leads, seconds

Sudbury - Lib/NDP
Perth - PC/Lib
Niagara - Lib/PC
Kit Cen - Lib/PC
York S W - Lib/NDP
Northum - PC/Lib
Davenp - NDP/Lib
TriSpa - NDP/Lib

Decided
Lib - 49
PC - 35
NDP - 15


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Kevinstat on October 06, 2011, 10:02:31 PM
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell isn't over either.

It is now, according to the CBC (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ontariovotes2011/#/26)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on October 06, 2011, 10:05:37 PM
CBC called Trinity-Spadina for NDP. They now have a 1100 vote lead.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on October 06, 2011, 10:07:59 PM
I don't any recount happening.

The tightest seat has a lead of 288, right now.

So, unless Liberals can take Davenport, they will have a minority, for me.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 10:08:12 PM
I believe Perth-Wellington was seen as one of the few safe Liberal ridings in rural Southwestern Ontario so it looks like the Liberals really took a hit in rural Ontario, but the Tory's failure to gain in the GTA is their weakness.  I hope the Liberals hold Niagara Falls though as Kim Craitor is a good MP.  Surprised how well the NDP is doing there though as federally there weren't much of a factor.  I also hope Kim Craitor re-introduces his private members bill on alcohol in convenience store though, but thats a side issue.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 10:09:14 PM
I don't any recount happening.

The tightest seat has a lead of 288, right now.

So, unless Liberals can take Davenport, they will have a minority, for me.
  Think they might be able to bribe any opposition members to cross the floor as this would give them a majority.  They only need to fine one and I am sure there is at least one or two opportunists in the opposition.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Kevinstat on October 06, 2011, 10:13:00 PM
So, unless Liberals can take Davenport, they will have a minority, for me.

Which they didn't.  Called for NDP.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on October 06, 2011, 10:13:48 PM
I don't any recount happening.

The tightest seat has a lead of 288, right now.

So, unless Liberals can take Davenport, they will have a minority, for me.
 Think they might be able to bribe any opposition members to cross the floor as this would give them a majority.  They only need to fine one and I am sure there is at least one or two opportunists in the opposition.

The problem is old MLAs, as we saw in the tight government in New Brunswick.
Some could threaten to go independant if they don't have funding/position/whatever.

Well, I noticed than Perth-Wellington or Nomtherberland-Quinte West would do the job, too. Less probable, since early is usually balanced between PC and Liberals.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Kevinstat on October 06, 2011, 10:15:43 PM
So, unless Liberals can take Davenport, they will have a minority, for me.

Which they didn't.  Called for NDP.

Still two seats uncalled with PCs leading and Liberals second, though.  And four with Liberals leading, two each with the PCs and NDP in 2nd.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 10:16:10 PM
Smelling more and more like a Minority


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 10:19:48 PM
Smelling more and more like a Minority

Could also change with a few by-elections, although those don't usually tend to favour governments.  Nonetheless a good ground organization can help pick them up, after all the federal Tories have gained seats in by-elections while never lost one and having a lower voter turnout makes ground organization even more important.  Also does anyone believe McGuinty can buy off any opposition members to cross the floor.  And what about the speaker.  I believe an opposition speaker would give McGuinty half the seats and the speaker in a tie vote by parliamentary tradition always votes whichever way keeps debate going, thus would vote to keep the government afloat.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 10:21:10 PM
I cant see the Tories or NDP allowing that. The NDP in particular would want to be able to exercise their newfound power.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 10:25:28 PM
Unlikely the NDP can find 500 extra votes for them over the Liberals in the last poll in Sudbury


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Kevinstat on October 06, 2011, 10:27:05 PM
Liberals up by 518 votes in Sudbury with one poll outstanding, but CBC still hasn't called it yet.  Is there any realistic chance of the NDP making up that margin in one poll?

Teddy already kind of answered my question I see.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 10:27:22 PM
The lead in Perth for the Tories is also too big IMO.

Same with YSW.

The other ridings *should* stay as they are.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 10:29:03 PM
With only one poll left, I would be surprised if the Liberals take Perth-Wellington as the gap is over 500 votes, so likes like a Tory pickup to me.  Niagara Falls and Northumberland-Quinte West too close too call.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Kevinstat on October 06, 2011, 10:30:37 PM
Liberals now "leading" in Sudbury with 431 of 431 precincts in.  ;)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Kevinstat on October 06, 2011, 10:31:29 PM
Liberals now "leading" in Sudbury with 431 of 431 precincts in.  ;)

Changed to elected now.  Final margin 501 votes.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on October 06, 2011, 10:31:49 PM
Strange. The tightest seat has a lead of 440 votes.

No recount, apparently.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 06, 2011, 10:34:20 PM
Comments on my crazy day tomorrow... but now... Victory. We won. Forward, Together.

Also, screw you Lister, Bloess, Monette, Galipeau, Citizen and Le Droit. Because we owned. Also, props to Naqvi in O-C, IMPRESSIVE!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 10:38:15 PM
Comments on my crazy day tomorrow... but now... Victory. We won. Forward, Together.

Also, screw you Lister, Bloess, Monette, Galipeau, Citizen and Le Droit. Because we owned. Also, props to Naqvi in O-C, IMPRESSIVE!
You won a minority :P


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 10:40:54 PM
Comments on my crazy day tomorrow... but now... Victory. We won. Forward, Together.

Also, screw you Lister, Bloess, Monette, Galipeau, Citizen and Le Droit. Because we owned. Also, props to Naqvi in O-C, IMPRESSIVE!
You won a minority :P
  Not for sure, but still I don't think any party had an outstanding result, but no party had an absolute disaster either.  Not like the Liberals and Bloc federally, but nothing outstanding like the NDP or Conservatives federally.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 06, 2011, 10:43:15 PM
CBC PROJECTS LIBERAL MINORITY


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Kevinstat on October 06, 2011, 10:43:25 PM
Kitchener Centre seems to have the greatest chance now of flipping from the current (Liberal) lead (over PC), based on the margin and the number of precincts outstanding.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 10:44:41 PM
Tories just took both Northumberland-Quinte West and Perth-Wellington, so no outstanding seats there.  Only three not declared, all which the Liberals are leading in, thus that means a majority is not possible at this point.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Kevinstat on October 06, 2011, 10:46:49 PM
York South-Weston called for Liberals.  NDP will have 17 seats.  Remaining 2 seats between Grits and Tories.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 10:48:20 PM
Unless there is a defection from an opposition member, it looks like a minority.  Nonetheless, you only need two opposition members to abstain to pass any bill thus as long as the Liberals don't do anything really unpopular, they can almost rule like a majority.  Also even his brother David McGuinty has stated it was a minority.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 10:57:45 PM
It looks like Forum Research was pretty close to the mark in their final poll.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 11:03:37 PM
With one poll to go and a 300 vote lead, it looks like the Liberals will take Kitchener Centre.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on October 06, 2011, 11:24:45 PM
Kitchener Centre was called for Liberals.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on October 06, 2011, 11:31:39 PM
Not a bad night, all told. Some scary moments for the NDP when they seemed like they were going to lose Trinity-Spadina, but overall I think with a Liberal minority, and an expanded NDP caucus, the Liberals will be able to keep government out of PC hands and the NDP will get occasional concessions and policy victory through the Liberal's weakened strength in the legislature.

That's not a bad deal.

Some NDP supports on this forum have been a little spoiled lately. :P From either the NDP surge to Opposition in May and the comeback record-breaking victory in Manitoba. Purely for a result for the Ontario NDP, this is good.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 06, 2011, 11:36:35 PM
I got 92% of the ridings correct (same as EP); 308 only got 85% correct :)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2011, 11:39:19 PM
Actually that's there's at least a faint feeling of disappointment over the Ontario NDP's best result since the awful terribleness (and an entirely credible one by pre-1990 standards) is no bad thing. Shows a real shift in mentality and all that; a good result for a third party isn't really what's wanted, even though such a result would have been worth committing murder for just four years ago.

But, more objectively, this isn't a bad base of seats to work out something better from. And some encouraging patterns elsewhere, I think. Especially if the lessons that can be drawn from this campaign (and the big one earlier this year) are actually drawn.

Just have to hope that they don't do something really stupid and ask for cabinet posts.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on October 06, 2011, 11:40:57 PM
Finally, Niagara Falls is called for Liberals.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 06, 2011, 11:54:05 PM
Yay, they did it ! :) Screw you Hudak ! :D


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 06, 2011, 11:55:26 PM
Ok, a lukewarm night for sure. I did tear up on the ride home tonight though. I was the only one brave enough to predict a Liberal victory here, and I was right :(  Anil Naidoo was such a great guy, but too unknown to voters. He did win the sign war by far, which tells you that Liberals in this riding are too scared to admit it. Today I door knocked a poll with maybe 30 NDP signs, and just 2 Liberal signs. We won it by just 2 votes. Telling, no?

I am really excited about Singh's victory and of course in Essex. Pleasantly surprised about Kenora. Too bad we couldn't win Sudbury, and Thunder Bay-Atitkokan and I'm really surprised we lost York South-Weston.  But, I am really pumped at the fact it's a minority government.  When I did my prediction numbers, I looked a lot at the results of the 2004 federal election in Toronto, where the Liberals did quite well. They won a minority government. Maybe things will play out like they did federally. 2011 Ontario = 2004 Canada? We may have Andrea being Leader of the Opposition in 7 years :)



Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: mileslunn on October 06, 2011, 11:55:52 PM
Anybody know how many MPPs went down in defeat and also how many cabinet ministers were defeated.  Also as a side note I believe the NDP and PCs held onto every seat they won last time around.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 07, 2011, 12:05:45 AM
Anybody know how many MPPs went down in defeat and also how many cabinet ministers were defeated.  Also as a side note I believe the NDP and PCs held onto every seat they won last time around.

I was just going to say that. Very rare that the NDP doesn't lost at least a few seats, even with massive gains. That's why I was expecting at least a loss in Kenora.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on October 07, 2011, 12:31:32 AM
4 ministers lost.

Sophia Aggelonitis (Hamilton Mountain, NDP gain), Revenue and Seniors
Leona Dombrowski (Prince Edward-Hastings, PC gain), Education
Carol Mitchell (Huron-Bruce, PC gain), Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs
John Wilkinson (Perth-Wellington, PC gain), Environment.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on October 07, 2011, 01:59:07 AM
There was a swing against the Greens in every single riding, from what I can see.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on October 07, 2011, 02:02:25 AM
2011 Ontario Provincial Election Results
Note - three polls yet to report in Kenora-Rainy River, so things there may change very slightly.

()


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on October 07, 2011, 02:32:59 AM
Seems to me like GTA didn't screw over non conservatives this time like they did in national election.

Much of it has to do with the collapse in the Green vote, is what I'm seeing. Doing swing maps at the moment, but Davenport, which was picked up by the NDP, only had a very slight swing against the Liberals, but a 9 or 10% swing from Greens to NDP.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 07, 2011, 06:44:38 AM
Liberals were very strong in the GTA. Because of Harper and Ford, of course. It hurt the NDP, but the Conservatives most. They were shut out, but there were some close calls for the NDP in the 416 as well (and a loss in the fertile York South-Weston). Both federally held NDP seats in Scarborough had good showings too, despite everything, so some areas of Scarborough might be becoming receptive to the NDP. Seeing a lot of ridings in Southern Ontario realigning provincially with their federal voting patterns, too.

To say I'm disappointed that the Liberals eeked it out in Sudbury is an understatement. And it's disappointing that the Liberals retained both Thunder Bay seats. But I was pleasantly surprised by the NDP's showing, or the PC's lack of showing, in Sault Ste. Marie.

Well, the NDP knows what it needs to do going forward. There's a lot of fertile ridings waiting to be picked up. Time to gouvern.

Question: When is Ontario getting new riding boundaries? Is it after this year's census?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 07, 2011, 07:13:11 AM
Ontario gets new boundaries when Canada does, which is 2014


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 07, 2011, 07:40:53 AM
The popular vote was 37.62% to 35.43% which is 2 points away from a tie, meanwhile the Liberals nearly won a Majority on that. If not for Singh, they would have.

In the recent Federal election there was a vote shift, and the Federal Liberals look a heck of a lot more like the provincial Liberals. Look at the light blue ridings near Peterborough, ridings the OLP held two days ago. The Feds did not really manage to do well here compared to the Tories. The new stripped-down Federal Liberals however did comparatively well here. The Federal voting patterns looked more like provincial patterns following the last election. What we saw last night was a strengthening of the vote for the PC Party in rural areas, all of em, and now the provincial vote share looks a lot more like the federal share.

I'll need to run some experiments, but my guess is that the vote share of the three parties is now very very close when you compare Provincial to Federal. This has never happened before. This is, however, interesting. The OLP has always been more moderate, and the federal party may need to move in this direction if they want to win 53 seats from Ontario.

More on this later.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 07, 2011, 08:09:37 AM
Sault Ste. Marie should be purple. CPC and OLP hold it. And Oshawa should be dark blue. Barrie as well.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 07, 2011, 08:23:07 AM
Sault Ste. Marie should be purple. CPC and OLP hold it. And Oshawa should be dark blue. Barrie as well.

Crap
And Windsor has errors too.


FIXD
()

Combined MP and MPPs
C 110
L 68
N 35


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on October 07, 2011, 10:38:04 AM
So, yeah - for the Tories: Ottawa West-Nepean not picked up, Eglinton-Lawrence not close, Willowdale not close, Don Valley West really not close (!), Thornhill a bit close for comfort, Oakville not picked up, A-D-F-W not that close (!), London West not close...

And for the NDP, Ottawa Centre not close, Trinity-Spadina alarmingly close, only really dominating in Toronto-Danforth among the other city ridings.

Liberals were very strong in the GTA. Because of Harper and Ford, of course.

I seem to be not really getting through here (except to Al), but this is mainly because of Hudak and Horwath. The ridings in the first group like Harper (and they especially like Jim Flaherty going around to international finance ministers meeting in nice suits going on about how Canada has done well in the recession due to our low debt). They don't like Hudak's folksy anecdotes about how hard life is for everyone in Ontario now, nor his weird "foreign worker" stuff.

The ridings in the second group, meanwhile, really don't like cutting the gas tax and cancelling commuter rail projects. I don't mean to deny that there's areas of good news elsewhere in the province. But when Jack Layton just dominated the manufacturing areas while vocally supporting a cap-and-trade scheme, there's no reason to be in this economic la-la land where you're the party of reducing both usage and cost of traditional fossil fuels at the same time.

Weird pattern, meanwhile, in the old industrial areas, where in the cities the old tradition of the big Liberal boss seems to be still strong but the NDP wins the less urban surrounding area. I definitely wasn't expecting that particular distribution in Essex, the NW or the Niagara.

Anyway, kind of an unstable result there just on the verge of the majority, and some demographics are in flux, so it will be an interesting few years.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on October 07, 2011, 10:59:51 AM

Liberals were very strong in the GTA. Because of Harper and Ford, of course.

The ridings in the second group, meanwhile, really don't like cutting the gas tax and cancelling commuter rail projects. I don't mean to deny that there's areas of good news elsewhere in the province. But when Jack Layton just dominated the manufacturing areas while vocally supporting a cap-and-trade scheme, there's no reason to be in this economic la-la land where you're the party of reducing both usage and cost of traditional fossil fuels at the same time.
[/quote]

Not really, i'm chalking it up to good old fashion Liberal fear mongering... and don't say it wasn't cause it at least played a pretty important role. All over the city i had friends who were NDP voters saying they might vote Liberal... Sarah Thompson (i know i wont let this go :P ) herself used vote-Liberal-or-Tories-will-win-and-the-end-is-nigh routine on me. In the last days you saw an upswing in the GTA for the Liberals... it was a vote in large part against Hudak, who truely underestimated how socially conservative values only help to elect Liberals in areas that would otherwise be competative for the NDP... The HST gas issue was a not hated, you fail to understand that most condo owners/home owners still have cars. They might use transit often but generally still have cars.

I think in Windsor and Thunder Bay the Union endorsement hurt the NDP especially...Those areas had a) incumbents (except WW), b) cabinet ministers... and in thunder bay the lover Bombardier contract. All 4 ridings had relatively weak NDP candidates too. Hartman can explain Ottawa Centre :P

You notice Essex and BGM... both had recently run federally and had done well, name advantage helped.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 07, 2011, 11:07:33 AM
A rant from your friendly DRO:

When I ask for a proof of address, you don't need to throw a fit and rant about how you didn't need it in past. Also, a proof of address is NOT you reading out your address to me. Just show me your driver's license, we won't eat it. If we need to take your wallet to see it, don't worry, we won't run off with your credit card and buy an airplane with it.

When you don't have appropriate ID and you need to sign an oath, don't throw a pathetic hissy fit and say 'I WONT VOTE'. The oath isn't asking you to pledge your wealth to my offspring or something.

When I tell you how to vote and how to return it to me, no need to act like a crazy old man and say ­­'I've voted before!!!'. Fact is, the rules change. And we're asinine about how the ballot needs to be folded. So, listen to me for 5 seconds before voting. It won't ruin your life.

We're human beings, not unresponsive robots. So, smile and be pleasant. Don't be some bitter angry person and treat us like dirt.

Tim Hudak: teh evil furigners and young people are the most pleasant voters. They show their ID or fill out an oath without throwing rants. The old Anglos and Francos are the most likely to be bitter old sh**ts who will complain about everything.

Finally. If you leave with your ballot as a souvenir, then you are the most despicable kind of human being on earth and I wish you a slow, painful death. Very slow and extremely painful.

(What happens when you issued 237 ballots, 235 of which were cast for candidates and one was cancelled? It's not as simple as you think.)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 07, 2011, 11:14:48 AM
One complaint to the friendly DRO: JUST COUNT THE BALLOTS ALREADY. DO NOT TAKE ONE HOUR TO PREPARE EVERYTHING WHILE ALL THE OTHER POLLS IN THE BUILDING ARE BEING COUNTED. SOME PEOPLE WANT TO GET TO THE ELECTION PARTY BEFORE THE ELECTION IS CALLED. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BROUGHT THEIR BABY DAUGHTER TO THE POLLING STATION AND WANT TO GET HOME AT A REASONABLE HOUR INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR YOU SLOW ASSES TO COUNT EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO VOTED ON YOUR LIST BEFORE COUNTING THE VOTES AND ENSURING ALL THE ENVELOPES ARE LABELED. ARGH!!!!!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Foucaulf on October 07, 2011, 11:19:05 AM
What an election! Shame about the "hat-trick (http://ca.news.yahoo.com/harper-calls-conservative-hat-trick-ontarios-fall-provincial-190330249.html)" meme's implosion, though

I hope Mcguinty's victory also douses theories on Canada's supposed rightwards shift. Two currents actually exist: traditional views of immigrants and the triumph of economic issues before all others. People don't notice social legislation as much as they used to, and the same minority trying to re-brand Canadian identity just has a bigger podium.

It'll be interesting to see how Ford's pandering for provincial money affect his Conservative cred. I bet the Sun won't like it one bit. (http://www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages/hr.asp?fpVname=CAN_TSUN&ref_pge=gal&b_pge=1)


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 07, 2011, 11:23:14 AM
Anyways, the NDP ran a populist campaign, and mostly won in populist areas. They got hit in Toronto and in Ottawa because of this. The good thing is, there are lots of areas for the NDP to gain next time. Unfortunately, Ottawa Centre wont be one of them. Clearly, Yasir Naqvi is much more popular than he should be.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 07, 2011, 11:41:49 AM
One complaint to the friendly DRO: JUST COUNT THE BALLOTS ALREADY. DO NOT TAKE ONE HOUR TO PREPARE EVERYTHING WHILE ALL THE OTHER POLLS IN THE BUILDING ARE BEING COUNTED. SOME PEOPLE WANT TO GET TO THE ELECTION PARTY BEFORE THE ELECTION IS CALLED. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BROUGHT THEIR BABY DAUGHTER TO THE POLLING STATION AND WANT TO GET HOME AT A REASONABLE HOUR INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR YOU SLOW ASSES TO COUNT EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO VOTED ON YOUR LIST BEFORE COUNTING THE VOTES AND ENSURING ALL THE ENVELOPES ARE LABELED. ARGH!!!!!

Well, we started late and finished last, but it wasn't because our envelopes weren't labelled and our list not counted. It's rather because we had one idiot voter leave with a ballot, leaving us unbalanced. And we like to have accurate counts :) Certainly, however, some polling officials are lazy sh**ts.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 07, 2011, 12:59:13 PM
One complaint to the friendly DRO: JUST COUNT THE BALLOTS ALREADY. DO NOT TAKE ONE HOUR TO PREPARE EVERYTHING WHILE ALL THE OTHER POLLS IN THE BUILDING ARE BEING COUNTED. SOME PEOPLE WANT TO GET TO THE ELECTION PARTY BEFORE THE ELECTION IS CALLED. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BROUGHT THEIR BABY DAUGHTER TO THE POLLING STATION AND WANT TO GET HOME AT A REASONABLE HOUR INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR YOU SLOW ASSES TO COUNT EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO VOTED ON YOUR LIST BEFORE COUNTING THE VOTES AND ENSURING ALL THE ENVELOPES ARE LABELED. ARGH!!!!!

Well, we started late and finished last, but it wasn't because our envelopes weren't labelled and our list not counted. It's rather because we had one idiot voter leave with a ballot, leaving us unbalanced. And we like to have accurate counts :) Certainly, however, some polling officials are lazy sh**ts.

What happens then, do you have to write up a report? These ladies weren't lazy, they were tedious.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 07, 2011, 02:26:04 PM
One complaint to the friendly DRO: JUST COUNT THE BALLOTS ALREADY. DO NOT TAKE ONE HOUR TO PREPARE EVERYTHING WHILE ALL THE OTHER POLLS IN THE BUILDING ARE BEING COUNTED. SOME PEOPLE WANT TO GET TO THE ELECTION PARTY BEFORE THE ELECTION IS CALLED. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BROUGHT THEIR BABY DAUGHTER TO THE POLLING STATION AND WANT TO GET HOME AT A REASONABLE HOUR INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR YOU SLOW ASSES TO COUNT EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO VOTED ON YOUR LIST BEFORE COUNTING THE VOTES AND ENSURING ALL THE ENVELOPES ARE LABELED. ARGH!!!!!

Well, we started late and finished last, but it wasn't because our envelopes weren't labelled and our list not counted. It's rather because we had one idiot voter leave with a ballot, leaving us unbalanced. And we like to have accurate counts :) Certainly, however, some polling officials are lazy sh**ts.

What happens then, do you have to write up a report? These ladies weren't lazy, they were tedious.

You need to complete the multi-coloured reporting sheet, recount the ballots a bunch of times to make sure you really didn't leave out any, and if it still doesn't balance, when you bring the stuff back to the office, you go in a special room where some official counts the ballots in front of you to conclude the same thing and change the "0" on "electors who left the polling location with a ballot" line to "1". It's asinine, tedious, boring and extremely frustrating, but it's called the government for a reason.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on October 07, 2011, 03:19:42 PM
Oh, complaining about poll workers!

First, they made us vote on the other side of the city, for no reason.

My poll worker was afwul on federal election. There was an huge line for my voting precinct because the poll worker was more often in bathroom than at his desk.

Then, he wasn't finding findig my name on its list, which was ridicolous since I was seeing my name on. I had to explain him where my name was on the list.

After, he was very bad at folding the ballot after we voted. Me and my mother ballots almost opened, which is an obvious problem and a violation of the secrecy of vote.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 07, 2011, 03:21:51 PM
Wait Max, I thought you lived in Québec ?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 07, 2011, 03:30:28 PM
One complaint to the friendly DRO: JUST COUNT THE BALLOTS ALREADY. DO NOT TAKE ONE HOUR TO PREPARE EVERYTHING WHILE ALL THE OTHER POLLS IN THE BUILDING ARE BEING COUNTED. SOME PEOPLE WANT TO GET TO THE ELECTION PARTY BEFORE THE ELECTION IS CALLED. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BROUGHT THEIR BABY DAUGHTER TO THE POLLING STATION AND WANT TO GET HOME AT A REASONABLE HOUR INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR YOU SLOW ASSES TO COUNT EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO VOTED ON YOUR LIST BEFORE COUNTING THE VOTES AND ENSURING ALL THE ENVELOPES ARE LABELED. ARGH!!!!!
I find this post offensive actually, and if I thought the moderator of this forum was impartial, I'd report it.

You chose to be there. Democracy is democracy, and the DRO counts the ballots, not you, and he counts it the way he wants to.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: MaxQue on October 07, 2011, 03:53:03 PM
Wait Max, I thought you lived in Québec ?

I'm talking about May federal election.
I live in Outremont (Thomas Mulcair, NDP) and Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou (Romeo Saganash, NDP) (both my MPs are running for NDP leadership.
Provincially, I live in Outremont (Raymond Bachand, angry man, which insult people and mafia enabler, Minister of Finance, PLQ) and Abitibi-Est (Agriculture Minister, PLQ).


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 07, 2011, 06:33:23 PM
So, the new PC MPP for Cambridge is the co-author of my public admin textbook (the other being my prof). And I think the Green candidate in Orleans was/is in my NorthAm relations class. And my NorthAm relations prof was the ONDP candidate in Ottawa-Vanier in 1995.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 07, 2011, 06:41:38 PM
One complaint to the friendly DRO: JUST COUNT THE BALLOTS ALREADY. DO NOT TAKE ONE HOUR TO PREPARE EVERYTHING WHILE ALL THE OTHER POLLS IN THE BUILDING ARE BEING COUNTED. SOME PEOPLE WANT TO GET TO THE ELECTION PARTY BEFORE THE ELECTION IS CALLED. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BROUGHT THEIR BABY DAUGHTER TO THE POLLING STATION AND WANT TO GET HOME AT A REASONABLE HOUR INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR YOU SLOW ASSES TO COUNT EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO VOTED ON YOUR LIST BEFORE COUNTING THE VOTES AND ENSURING ALL THE ENVELOPES ARE LABELED. ARGH!!!!!
I find this post offensive actually, and if I thought the moderator of this forum was impartial, I'd report it.

You chose to be there. Democracy is democracy, and the DRO counts the ballots, not you, and he counts it the way he wants to.

Well, both me and the female Liberal scrutineer were getting quite impatient. Had the counted the ballots on time, the Liberal girl wouldn't have been able to supervise the count, because she watched another poll as well. Worked out for her, I guess, but she was impatient too. And, she complained about how they were counting the ballots too. (I didn't really care).

Im sorry you took offence Teddy.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on October 07, 2011, 06:44:43 PM
The four best Liberal results are St. Paul's (58.4), Don Valley West (58.3), Toronto Centre (54.9) and Eglinton-Lawrence (54.3).

I very much doubt that this list would be just from this region in any other federal or provincial election since 1867.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 07, 2011, 06:59:32 PM
Clearly wealthy people voted Liberal. Hudak ran on a populist platform as well, alienating urban elites.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 07, 2011, 07:44:27 PM
Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

Betting is illegal of course, but you have the Tories at 41 and I have them at 24-40. My average is therefore 32.

If we ever meet, and the Tories get over 37 seats, I'd like to buy you a coffee; would you like to return the favour of they get below 36?

BTW, did I win the bet, or did both of us lose?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 07, 2011, 07:53:33 PM
()

That's such a strange map in parts. Very, very odd election.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: adma on October 07, 2011, 08:44:23 PM
From glimpsing results, it seems to me like the Libertarians fared better (well, in numbers of 1%+ candidates) than they have for over 20 years--dunno whether it's a "Ron Paul" effect...


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 07, 2011, 11:16:51 PM
Remember the Freedom Party is another Libertarian party.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 07, 2011, 11:29:52 PM
From glimpsing results, it seems to me like the Libertarians fared better (well, in numbers of 1%+ candidates) than they have for over 20 years--dunno whether it's a "Ron Paul" effect...

I thought you were wrong (I was clicking though the map) until I hit the GTA. Wow! What the hell is going on there?

I'll do some numbers.

Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

Betting is illegal of course, but you have the Tories at 41 and I have them at 24-40. My average is therefore 32.

If we ever meet, and the Tories get over 37 seats, I'd like to buy you a coffee; would you like to return the favour of they get below 36?

BTW, did I win the bet, or did both of us lose?

What kind of coffee do you like?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 07, 2011, 11:37:28 PM
From glimpsing results, it seems to me like the Libertarians fared better (well, in numbers of 1%+ candidates) than they have for over 20 years--dunno whether it's a "Ron Paul" effect...

I thought you were wrong (I was clicking though the map) until I hit the GTA. Wow! What the hell is going on there?

I'll do some numbers.

Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

Betting is illegal of course, but you have the Tories at 41 and I have them at 24-40. My average is therefore 32.

If we ever meet, and the Tories get over 37 seats, I'd like to buy you a coffee; would you like to return the favour of they get below 36?

BTW, did I win the bet, or did both of us lose?

What kind of coffee do you like?

French Vanilla :)

You know, we must meet at some point. Perhaps when I'm in Toronto in March?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 08, 2011, 12:12:24 AM
Hatman: sure

Results:
Toronto, York, East York, North York
Lib - 47.84%
NDP - 28.79%
PC - 19.49%
Grn - 2.53%
Lt - 0.42%
FP - 0.33%
Oth - 0.61%

Etobicoke
Lib - 50.51%
PC - 29.49%
NDP - 15.60%
Grn - 2.28%
Ltn - 0.57%
FP - 0.55%
Oth - 1.00%

Brampton, Mississauga
Lib - 44.69%
PC - 32.01%
NDP - 18.74%
Grn - 2.80%
Ltn - 0.49%
FP - 0.35%
Oth - 0.92%

Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, King City, Whitchurck-Stoufville
Lib - 48.04%
PC - 37.36%
NDP - 10.12%
Grn - 2.43%
Ltn - 1.46%
FP - 0.07%
Oth - 0.53%

Scarborough, Pickering, Ajax
Lib - 46.60%
PC - 29.35%
NDP  - 20.64%
Grn - 2.02%
Ltn - 0.98%
FP - 0.26%
Oth - 0.15%

TOTALS
Lib - 47.18% - 674,925
PC - 27.54% - 393,983
NDP - 21.19% - 303,196
Grn - 2.46% - 35,256
Ltn - 0.71% - 10,134
FP - 0.30% - 4,260
Oth - 0.61% - 8,786


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 08, 2011, 02:51:38 AM
So, the new PC MPP for Cambridge is the co-author of my public admin textbook (the other being my prof). And I think the Green candidate in Orleans was/is in my NorthAm relations class. And my NorthAm relations prof was the ONDP candidate in Ottawa-Vanier in 1995.

OMG ELITISZT INTELLEKTUALZ ;D


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 08, 2011, 04:22:23 AM
Majority missed by one seat? Lol.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 08, 2011, 06:59:14 AM
Who are the FP? Fascists?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 08, 2011, 07:04:10 AM
Remember the Freedom Party is another Libertarian party.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on October 08, 2011, 07:48:51 AM
2011 Ontario Provincial Election Map - Liberal Swing
()


2011 Ontario Provincial Election Map - PC Swing
()


2011 Ontario Provincial Election Map - NDP Swing
()


2011 Ontario Provincial Election Map - Greens Swing
()


As always, bigger versions in the Gallery.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 08, 2011, 12:51:36 PM
I'm back in Northern Ontario. No one here is happy with the results. But that's expected, Timmins-James Bay seems to have the biggest swing against the Liberals. And they only got <12% here? Pathetic.

From glimpsing results, it seems to me like the Libertarians fared better (well, in numbers of 1%+ candidates) than they have for over 20 years--dunno whether it's a "Ron Paul" effect...

I thought you were wrong (I was clicking though the map) until I hit the GTA. Wow! What the hell is going on there?

I'll do some numbers.

Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

Betting is illegal of course, but you have the Tories at 41 and I have them at 24-40. My average is therefore 32.

If we ever meet, and the Tories get over 37 seats, I'd like to buy you a coffee; would you like to return the favour of they get below 36?

BTW, did I win the bet, or did both of us lose?

What kind of coffee do you like?

French Vanilla :)

You know, we must meet at some point. Perhaps when I'm in Toronto in March?

Let's all meet up!


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: adma on October 08, 2011, 03:15:16 PM

Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, King City, Whitchurck-Stoufville
Lib - 48.04%
PC - 37.36%
NDP - 10.12%
Grn - 2.43%
Ltn - 1.46%
FP - 0.07%
Oth - 0.53%


That NDP figure seems low. There weren't *that* many under-10% up there, were there?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 08, 2011, 04:47:27 PM

Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, King City, Whitchurck-Stoufville
Lib - 48.04%
PC - 37.36%
NDP - 10.12%
Grn - 2.43%
Ltn - 1.46%
FP - 0.07%
Oth - 0.53%


That NDP figure seems low. There weren't *that* many under-10% up there, were there?

I may have erred, but also remember that some ridings in the area are huge.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 08, 2011, 04:51:43 PM
The only sub-ten there was Thornhill, by the look of it.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 08, 2011, 05:03:26 PM
I deleted the original so again it could be an error. There are only 5 ridings in there so you guys could recalc it


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on October 08, 2011, 07:23:32 PM
I'm back in Northern Ontario. No one here is happy with the results. But that's expected, Timmins-James Bay seems to have the biggest swing against the Liberals. And they only got <12%.

The Liberal and PC results there seem to have flipped. Big swing against them in Sudbury, too, but they just managed to hang on. I was somewhat surprised by the swings in Thunder Bay. The two seats seem very unlike the rest of Northern Ontario.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 08, 2011, 09:58:36 PM
I'm back in Northern Ontario. No one here is happy with the results. But that's expected, Timmins-James Bay seems to have the biggest swing against the Liberals. And they only got <12%.

The Liberal and PC results there seem to have flipped. Big swing against them in Sudbury, too, but they just managed to hang on. I was somewhat surprised by the swings in Thunder Bay. The two seats seem very unlike the rest of Northern Ontario.

Hmm. Well, I don't know too much about Thunder Bay, but I do know that, when Bartolucci retires, Liberals might fall to distant second, or even third, like it is federally. If he doesn't retire for the next election, he'll have another battle. As for Timmins-James Bay, Xstrata closing was probably the straw that broke the Liberal camel's back. Liberals ed up in Northern Ontario. The three ridings they held onto were only because of the incumbents, and that's it. They're nearing extinction.

I'm interested to know, and I wonder if I'll ever find out, exactly where the Conservative vote is coming from here. I know Timmins is "trending"(for lack of a better word) Conservative, but I think it's too simple to say the Liberal vote is switching Conservative. I mean, after all, the Liberal candidate in the federal election here was campaigning as the "progressive voice for the north". Silly though, to frame yourself like that against Charlie Angus of all people.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on October 10, 2011, 01:44:30 AM
The only two seats which swung heavily against the NDP were seats with retiring members.

No green on the Greens map...


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 10, 2011, 07:08:04 PM
Thunder Bay = strange. Poor campaigns there, I guess.

Holmes, I think it's just right wing Liberals switching to the Tories.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on October 11, 2011, 12:47:49 AM
2011 Ontario Provincial Election Maps - Liberal Vote
()


2011 Ontario Provincial Election Maps - Progressive Conservative Vote
()


2011 Ontario Provincial Election Maps - NDP Vote
()


2011 Ontario Provincial Election Maps - Greens Vote
()


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 11, 2011, 12:55:56 AM
Dufferin Caledon has no business being Green, but it's been among the top few Greenist ridings for a decade


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on October 15, 2011, 11:41:40 AM
Dufferin Caledon has no business being Green, but it's been among the top few Greenist ridings for a decade

What? It's hilly, and thus beautiful but unsuitable for big industrial farming, unlike the flat and fertile areas in all other directions, and so in addition to the local rednecks, it's also full of people who make their living selling the organic products of their self-consciously small farms at farmers' markets in inner Toronto (and Guelph), or by selling artisanal pottery and that sort of thing to people from north Toronto who come for the weekend and stay in inns in restored old mills in Ye Olde Victorian Towns, and priority number one for the whole operation is making sure suburbia doesn't come north from Brampton.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 15, 2011, 06:35:43 PM
it's also full of people who make their living selling the organic products of their self-consciously small farms at farmers' markets
Which does not fit in anywhere else in Rural ontario


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on October 15, 2011, 07:38:17 PM
What Linus said makes sense, plus I dare say there may be a bit of what we call (over here - don't know if the term is used overseas) tree-change retirees (contrasting with seachange retirees). I'm sure you know the demographic I mean, even if you don't use the term - retirees who have swapped the city for the quiet and relaxed atmosphere of the country. They want to preserve the environment for their grandkids.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 15, 2011, 08:16:39 PM
I'm sure you know the demographic I mean, even if you don't use the term - retirees who have swapped the city for the quiet and relaxed atmosphere of the country. They want to preserve the environment for their grandkids.
This is a contradiction


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on October 15, 2011, 08:25:26 PM
it's also full of people who make their living selling the organic products of their self-consciously small farms at farmers' markets
Which does not fit in anywhere else in Rural ontario

Is this supposed to be sarcastic? In almost all of rural Ontario the overwhelming majority of farms use modern industrial agriculture and sell to food processors rather than directly to the general public, even if they are "family farms" in the sense that the owners live and work on the farm. The main exception is the old order Mennonite country north and west of Waterloo, but obviously here the politics are a bit different.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 15, 2011, 08:38:45 PM
I don't think any of you have any reason to lie to me, but when I picture "rural" canadians, I don't picture "intelligent" or "caring" or "environmentalist" or "smart" or "modern", and you'll guys need to prove to me otherwise.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 15, 2011, 09:32:09 PM
Now, now. People who live in rural areas aren't like some separate species from people who live in the cities.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Smid on October 15, 2011, 10:11:29 PM
I'm sure you know the demographic I mean, even if you don't use the term - retirees who have swapped the city for the quiet and relaxed atmosphere of the country. They want to preserve the environment for their grandkids.
This is a contradiction

How is it a contradiction? People don't retire in Canada? Or when they retire, they only ever live in the same area they lived before they retired? If you hadn't noticed, people from New York retire to Florida, these are seachange retirees. Perhaps people retiring to a quiet, rural setting is unique to Australia (or at least does not happen in the US and Canada) but it's certainly no contradiction to expect you to recognise a particular demographic, even if you use a different term to describe them.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 15, 2011, 11:01:19 PM
Now, now. People who live in rural areas aren't like some separate species from people who live in the cities.
Just about as close as you can get.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 16, 2011, 08:10:54 AM
Teddy, you're from PEI for God's sake. Which makes you, by definition, about eighty times more hickish than anyone from rural Ontario, even if you now live in Toronto...


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 16, 2011, 09:45:49 AM
Exactly. People in rural areas in Atlantic Canada in general don't support insane right-wing insane parties that are insane and insane.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 16, 2011, 10:06:56 AM
I was under the impression that New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador both have majority PC governments.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 16, 2011, 10:27:05 AM
PC yes.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 16, 2011, 11:30:30 AM
Remarkable how SW Ontario has become such a wasteland for the Liberals, considering that was once their base.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: adma on October 16, 2011, 11:51:17 AM
Remember: what ought to make even less sense than the Greens in Duff-Cal are (at least until this year's elections) the Greens in Grey-Bruce-OS...


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 16, 2011, 11:59:15 AM
I'm sure you know the demographic I mean, even if you don't use the term - retirees who have swapped the city for the quiet and relaxed atmosphere of the country. They want to preserve the environment for their grandkids.
This is a contradiction

How is it a contradiction? People don't retire in Canada? Or when they retire, they only ever live in the same area they lived before they retired? If you hadn't noticed, people from New York retire to Florida, these are seachange retirees. Perhaps people retiring to a quiet, rural setting is unique to Australia (or at least does not happen in the US and Canada) but it's certainly no contradiction to expect you to recognise a particular demographic, even if you use a different term to describe them.
No one (of IQ>60) who wants to preserve a particular environment retires to it from elsewhere.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 17, 2011, 06:52:08 PM
Remember: what ought to make even less sense than the Greens in Duff-Cal are (at least until this year's elections) the Greens in Grey-Bruce-OS...

What was the reason for that anyway? Obviously that was near where (or actually where?) there was that whole Walkerton unpleasantness, but environmental/public health disaster doesn't usually lead on so neatly to Greenie success.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 17, 2011, 06:54:39 PM
Suppose it's also interesting that you have consistently higher Greenie percentages on the north side of the Oak Ridges Moraine (a pattern that Dufferin-Caledon fits in with, obviously).


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on October 17, 2011, 09:14:10 PM
Yes - nicely observed.

Rural Ontario is really three distinct areas, not just two, in a way that will not be obvious from political maps, since it is hidden by the Conservative voting of both southern zones. There's a northern area based in unionized mining and forestry, a heavily farmed flat southwestern area where the countryside resembles US states starting with "I", and an east-central area that's more forested with lots of recreational tourism, with a landscape more reminiscent of upstate New York.

The following map I've just made shows this quite clearly. (outline map, with yellowish boundaries, from Earl on wikipedia).

()

The Green party's Ontario base, such as it is, is concentrated in the third of these areas - though particularly in the transition zone between it and the southwest, where you get that Vermont-like small-farms-in-the-wooded-hills look that's so appealing to a certain demographic.

Now, as regards Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, this much explains why it would be one of those ridings where the Greens are higher than average (Bruce County on the map is a bit misleading; the part in Huron-Bruce riding - which BTW includes Walkerton, so that explanation's off - is extensively farmed). But why they suddenly leapfrogged for a couple of elections into second place and then back down again to normal levels is probably just one of those weird things involving the strengths of local candidates and organizations without a deep demographic reason.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 17, 2011, 09:21:41 PM
But then why no super-green vote out in the white area?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on October 17, 2011, 09:30:48 PM
Which white area would you expect Greens based on my analysis where you find none?

The Green party's Ontario base, such as it is, is concentrated in the third of these areas - though particularly in the transition zone between it and the southwest, where you get that Vermont-like small-farms-in-the-wooded-hills look that's so appealing to a certain demographic.

2011 Ontario Provincial Election Maps - Greens Vote
()


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 17, 2011, 10:40:11 PM
After examining these areas on Google Maps, it would appear that the number of trees in any given riding can be directly correlated to the number of Green voters. Where there are more farms, fewer people vote Green

Put another way
I was right when I implied Farmers do not vote Green. I was mistaken however in presuming everyone in a rural riding is a farmer.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Holmes on October 18, 2011, 07:23:37 AM
Northern Ontario has a ton of trees, and hardly any Green support. I don't think that's a valid assumption.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: lilTommy on October 18, 2011, 07:40:52 AM
Northern Ontario has a ton of trees, and hardly any Green support. I don't think that's a valid assumption.

Northern Ontario is another beast all together, and i think we mentioned that... and you can see that the Greens die bascially north of Nipissing and Parry Sound-Muskoka. The Cottages end and the small resources towns replace the baby-boomer cottage country. I think that might play too into the Greens strength in Parry Sound-Muskoka... many small c conservatives who don't care for the PC rebranded tea party north who might not vote NDP or LIberal might vote Green as they are fiscally more conservative. Same for the Simcoe ridings.
The North is more resources based around forestry and minning... if there are any enviro's up there i think they vote NDP or Liberal, which is an odd mix since the NDP has been a traditional base for the forestry and environmentalism... which i don't think their mutually exclusive either.
Greens also tend to die off in old industrial areas; look at SW ontario or the Hamilton-Niagara area... areas where the NDP is stronger.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on October 18, 2011, 11:09:18 AM
I don't consider the small smattering of ridings in Northern Ontario to be part of Ontario when discussing Ontario voting patterns.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: adma on October 20, 2011, 07:32:02 PM
When it comes to making sense of these Ontario Green voting patterns, it's useful to keep in mind the "Tories with composters" label that's been attached to them...


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 20, 2011, 07:41:33 PM
When it comes to making sense of these Ontario Green voting patterns, it's useful to keep in mind the "Tories with composters" label that's been attached to them...

Aren't Canadian Greens, in general, more right-wing than their international cousins anyway?


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hash on October 20, 2011, 07:53:29 PM
When it comes to making sense of these Ontario Green voting patterns, it's useful to keep in mind the "Tories with composters" label that's been attached to them...

Aren't Canadian Greens, in general, more right-wing than their international cousins anyway?

Yeah, pretty much. They're like the Czech Greens or Swiss Green Liberals.


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: adma on March 26, 2013, 08:04:35 PM
Bad news, people--the colour-coded poll-by-poll maps on the Global TV site have been 404'd for the past couple of days http://globalnews.ca/pages/topicNew.aspx?id=6442556629


Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 27, 2013, 07:02:41 AM
Bad news, people--the colour-coded poll-by-poll maps on the Global TV site have been 404'd for the past couple of days http://globalnews.ca/pages/topicNew.aspx?id=6442556629

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!



Title: Re: Ontario 2011 (6th October)
Post by: adma on March 27, 2013, 06:39:22 PM
And unfortunately, the structure of the Global site is such that I haven't figured out how, exactly, to inquire about what's going on (I tried, reflexively, through a programming-feedback page; no word yet)