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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Election Predictions => Topic started by: Dave Leip on September 09, 2011, 10:36:38 am



Title: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Dave Leip on September 09, 2011, 10:36:38 am
Hi,
The 2012 Republican Primary Predictions (http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php) are now enabled.  Please report any issues.

Summary Compiled Map
(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred12PRP.png)


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: tmthforu94 on September 09, 2011, 04:34:58 pm
Thank you Dave! :)


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Thomas D on September 09, 2011, 05:55:48 pm
Awesome.

Thanks, Dave.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: A Strange Reflection on September 11, 2011, 12:13:54 pm
Thank you Dave! :)


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 11, 2011, 12:38:39 pm


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Northam for Governor '17 on September 11, 2011, 06:53:27 pm


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Vosem on September 11, 2011, 08:46:46 pm
And now Paul has a state.

The map is misleading to some extent; Perry wins lots of low-population, large states, while Romney wins denser, New England states. Since those that predicted Romney would win Arizona were generally more confident than those that predicted Perry do so, I counted Arizona for Romney, whereas I split Wisconsin 50-50.

EC count (obviously PR not included), using above method:

Mitt Romney 282
Rick Perry 243
Michele Bachmann 10
Ron Paul 3

Which looks about right.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Duke David on September 12, 2011, 03:49:20 am
Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Thomas D on September 12, 2011, 05:20:49 pm
Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?

He's fairly well liked. But most of the people here don't think he'll win any states.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: A-Bob on October 01, 2011, 05:45:43 pm
Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?

He's extremely popular amongst his vocal supporters, but no one else outside of the democratic party


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Psychic Octopus on October 01, 2011, 07:11:47 pm
Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?

He's extremely popular amongst his vocal supporters, but no one else outside of the democratic party

Understatement of the century.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Vosem on October 01, 2011, 09:55:32 pm
New total, pre-Cain begins winning states (I predict he'll be ahead of Perry in a week):

Mitt Romney 339
Rick Perry 189
Michele Bachmann 10

Paul lost Alaska to Romney, and Romney got a bunch of states from Perry.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: A Strange Reflection on October 02, 2011, 03:38:21 am
Don't we need a new color to represent Cain ? Purple basically means "miscellaneous candidates".


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: A-Bob on October 02, 2011, 03:49:55 pm
Don't we need a new color to represent Cain ? Purple basically means "miscellaneous candidates".

^

Will others get colors as they come into major play. I'm thinking Cain, Gingrich, and possibly Christie if he enters.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Psychic Octopus on October 02, 2011, 04:56:11 pm
I think we need to replace Huntsman with someone else, since Cain and Gingrich both do better than him and don't have their own colors.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Penelope on October 05, 2011, 08:43:51 pm
It may be prudent to give Cain a new color, as well as Gingrich.

Perhaps Huntsman's red can be swapped to Cain, and Bachmann's orange to Gingrich?


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Mehmentum on October 11, 2011, 05:34:40 pm
I must say atlas users are very slow on responding to Perry's complete implosion.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Vosem on October 16, 2011, 11:53:10 am
OK, we're down to a two-way race between Romney and Perry. Romney clearly leads:

Mitt Romney 360
Rick Perry 178

Cain has still not broken through anywhere; it'll probably start in Georgia.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: OAM on October 16, 2011, 07:32:40 pm
I must say atlas users are very slow on responding to Perry's complete implosion.

Well, I can only judge from my own opinions, but I believe there's two things at work here.

1)  There's a lot of flux right now, things changing fast, etc, and no one's really sure how it'll even be next week.

2)  People's opinions of Cain in particular are changing pretty fast.  Some thing he's a fad, some think he's here to stay, even more aren't sure either way...

I personally was going to wait until things settle to make my next version, but it'd been awhile, so I made one today.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: THIS MACHINE CRUSHES REGRESSIVES on October 27, 2011, 05:11:35 pm
Romney: 282
Cain: 177
Perry: 69
Bachmann: 10

I've been hearing lately that some big money donors are giving Gingrich a second look, though, so I may revisit this.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: A-Bob on November 11, 2011, 07:28:49 pm
Gingrich has his own color. I guess Cain will stay with purple?


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: fezzyfestoon on November 14, 2011, 10:02:56 am
I just changed the overall map for the first time. SWEET. Virginia to Romney, thank you very much. :P

EDIT: AND Nebraska, whaaaat


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: True Federalist on November 14, 2011, 09:56:07 pm
While I hadn't done so intentionally, of the predictions favorable to Newt:

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?sort=9

I currently have the most favorable:

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=410

(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 15, 2011, 03:06:38 am
(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)

Romney will win Utah even if he's conceded.  (Just like Dean won Vermont after he'd dropped out.)


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: True Federalist on November 15, 2011, 08:20:23 pm
(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)

Romney will win Utah even if he's conceded.  (Just like Dean won Vermont after he'd dropped out.)


Will Mitt even be on the ballot in Utah?  Given that Utah is the very last GOP primary for now, if Mitt concedes early enough his campaign might not file and/or ask for a refund of the filing fee.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: True Federalist on November 18, 2011, 11:14:57 pm
I just tripled down on Newt in my latest prediction.

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=441

I only left Romney with New Hampshire, Alaska, and Washington.  Everything else goes to Gingrich.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Psychic Octopus on November 21, 2011, 03:41:43 pm
I just tripled down on Newt in my latest prediction.

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=441

I only left Romney with New Hampshire, Alaska, and Washington.  Everything else goes to Gingrich.

I was a bit more generous, but my new prediction is also a Gingrich victory.

Here it is. (http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=459)


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Cath on November 25, 2011, 09:11:55 am
How do you make these maps.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on November 25, 2011, 10:49:08 am
How do you make these maps.

Get an account on the Atlas site (not the forum), click on the prediction map, and click "Create Prediction".

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=495

^mine


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 30, 2011, 03:53:35 pm
And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones. ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on November 30, 2011, 04:20:42 pm
And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones. ;)

Rick Perry is still winning Texas and was winning most of the South until a couple days ago.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 30, 2011, 09:56:11 pm
And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones. ;)

Rick Perry is still winning Texas and was winning most of the South until a couple days ago.
That was only because people were lazy and hadn't updated their predictions. It's been concrete now for a while he won't be on the ballot, and in that same time, he's taken Missouri on the map.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: True Federalist on December 01, 2011, 06:51:18 pm
And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones. ;)

Rick Perry is still winning Texas and was winning most of the South until a couple days ago.
That was only because people were lazy and hadn't updated their predictions. It's been concrete now for a while he won't be on the ballot, and in that same time, he's taken Missouri on the map.

Altho arguably, Dave should replace the non-binding Missouri primary that will be held on 7 February with the binding Missouri caucus that will be held on 17 March, and Gingrich certainly will be a player for that if the nomination is still in doubt.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Yelnoc on December 08, 2011, 04:27:57 pm
I was going to make one, but with the race as volatile as it is, it really does not seem worth it.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: A Strange Reflection on December 19, 2011, 09:12:50 am
First prediction, partly based on 538's forecasts and partly personal guesswork due to the current trends.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/PREDMAPSP/pe201213304P1.png)

Quote from: http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=728
Iowa : Gingrich is going down quickly and Paul seems narrowly ahead. Looks like it will be a dead heat between Paul and Romney, but Paul is more likely to benefit from the momentum.

NH : Hard to see Romney losing now that its most serious contender seems gone. However, I'll wait for Iowa before giving any certainty to my prediction.

SC and Florida : Gingrich had a solid lead in previous polls, but IA and NH will most likely ruin his momentum and he might very way lose there too.

Of course, more serious predictions can be done only after Iowa.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Dave Leip on December 21, 2011, 02:32:58 pm
Hi,
Note that the primary election dates have been updated and that the MO contest has replaced the Primary with the Caucus.

Dave


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 26, 2011, 05:33:43 pm
I was going to make one, but with the race as volatile as it is, it really does not seem worth it.

You can update it as it goes on.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Harry Hayfield on December 30, 2011, 06:37:10 pm
Is it me or has the compiled map suddenly shifted away from Romney (as a lot of states he was safe in has suddenly become marginal)?


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: A Strange Reflection on January 03, 2012, 11:31:34 am
Is it me or has the compiled map suddenly shifted away from Romney (as a lot of states he was safe in has suddenly become marginal)?

Indeed. But meanwhile, he keeps stealing States to Gingrich (FL and SD recently, MO now being tied...). TX has also switched back to Perry for some reason.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: A Strange Reflection on January 03, 2012, 11:34:54 am
Final prediction before Iowa.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/PREDMAPSP/pe201213304P2.png)

Of course everything might change after that.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 03, 2012, 03:45:12 pm
We all saw how far Gingrich dropped once the negativity hit him in Iowa. From early to mid-December, Gingrich's lead in South Carolina went from around 20 points to 12, according to Insider Advantage. At this point, his lead is probably smaller than that, and considering he probably won't have strong (Top 3) showings in either Iowa or New Hampshire, as well as his lack of finances, I have a hard time seeing him win South Carolina, thus the nomination. It's going to be an interesting battle in South Carolina, to say the least. ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Penelope on January 03, 2012, 10:13:05 pm
Are the color changes on the Iowa results page here (http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2012&fips=19&f=0&off=0&elect=2) going to be reflected in the predictions?

Rick Santorum being blue, Newt Gingrich being orange, etc


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: A Strange Reflection on January 04, 2012, 12:24:05 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/PREDMAPSP/pe201213304P3.png)

Updated prediction. SC is a guesswork, but I'm fairly confident Santorum will pull ahead there in next polls.

My Iowa prediction turned to be correct (unfortunately). :(


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on January 04, 2012, 11:59:34 pm
People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Harry Hayfield on January 05, 2012, 10:51:48 am
People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

I can't remember how the scoring goes for this, but I think (to reflect that the top three all got seven delegates each) that Romney and Santorum should score maximum points in Iowa, and Paul half points. Does that seem fair to everyone?


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on January 05, 2012, 01:31:53 pm
People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

I can't remember how the scoring goes for this, but I think (to reflect that the top three all got seven delegates each) that Romney and Santorum should score maximum points in Iowa, and Paul half points. Does that seem fair to everyone?

No. Romney won. Deal with it.

I also want to point out I was one of the few (maybe just 2 people?) who actually was brave enough to indicate that it was a lean Romney state. In hindsight, that was very ballsy of me.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: A Strange Reflection on January 06, 2012, 05:30:23 am
People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

I can't remember how the scoring goes for this, but I think (to reflect that the top three all got seven delegates each) that Romney and Santorum should score maximum points in Iowa, and Paul half points. Does that seem fair to everyone?

No. Romney won. Deal with it.

I also want to point out I was one of the few (maybe just 2 people?) who actually was brave enough to indicate that it was a lean Romney state. In hindsight, that was very ballsy of me.

Sorry, but no. The race was objectively a tossup. Whether Romney won or not, you can't say it was a good thing to say the race was "lean Romney".


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Psychic Octopus on January 06, 2012, 05:42:07 pm
No! No! No! I got my two points, and I'm not sharing. >:(


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 08, 2012, 01:08:27 pm
No! No! No! I got my two points, and I'm not sharing. >:(
Amen. Yes, it was a very close race, practically a toss-up, but the fact remains that Romney received more votes than any other candidate, and those who predicted that it would happen should be "rewarded" for their prediction.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: HoldCongressAccountable on January 09, 2012, 02:26:03 pm
Dave,
This alas desperately needs to be updated!
ht.../PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php
Michelle Bachmann is gone, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum should be included for a short time at least.
What do you think?


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on January 10, 2012, 01:28:08 pm
Argh, I wanted to change my prediction to Romney >30%, but it's already been locked :(


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 10, 2012, 08:51:35 pm
Looks like I will be continuing on my quest for a perfect prediction map. I was one of 23, but I'd bet a couple had Romney at 40%. If this is a 50-state sweep like some suspect, it now comes down to a battle of which of us can nail %'s the best. ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Penelope on February 07, 2012, 04:09:00 pm
"Predictions are now closed"

Uhh what?


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: AverroŽs on February 07, 2012, 06:27:40 pm
"Predictions are now closed"

Uhh what?

I hope this is just for the color update; for some reason, my prediction map is screwed up such that I now have Cain predicted as the winner for both OH and ND rather than Santorum. Don't know if this is a side-effect of the change or a careless mistake for which I am at fault.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Penelope on February 07, 2012, 06:41:48 pm
"Predictions are now closed"

Uhh what?

I hope this is just for the color update; for some reason, my prediction map is screwed up such that I now have Cain predicted as the winner for both OH and ND rather than Santorum. Don't know if this is a side-effect of the change or a careless mistake for which I am at fault.

I had this problem earlier, except with Bachmann. Now my colors updated on my map but I still can't update my map at all.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Cory Booker on February 07, 2012, 06:57:27 pm
Now, maybe the moderators can open up the Senate and Governor predictions of 2012.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Penelope on February 07, 2012, 07:30:09 pm
Predictions seem to be back up - thanks for the changes Dave! :)


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: MIKESOWELL on February 07, 2012, 08:45:48 pm
Great thread.


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Dave Leip on February 08, 2012, 12:14:00 pm
Hi,
I've made the color changes in the Predictions for 2012 Republican primary - this was arduous and is not complete.  What was done:
Gingrich changed from beige/brown to blue on all maps after 11/10/2011
Perry changed from blue to beige/brown on all maps after 11/10/2011
Bachman changed from orange to a steel gray on all maps after 11/10/2011

Santorum changed to orange on all users' most-recent maps (since Santorum and Cain were both purple, prior to the most recent maps, I was unable to make a blanket change on the maps).

Still left to do: update Gingrich, Perry, and Bachman for maps prior to 11/10/2011.

If you would like to update your historic maps for Santorum to Orange, you can do these manually yourself by downloading the maps to your computer and changing the colors in an image software (I use Graphic Converter on the mac) and re-save in the same png format, then if you email me the files, I'll upload them for you.

Thanks,
Dave


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Dave Leip on February 08, 2012, 12:15:55 pm
Hi,
Intermediate scores have been updated on the 2012 Republican Primary predictions.
Enjoy,
Dave


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Harry Hayfield on February 08, 2012, 02:21:06 pm
Hi,
Intermediate scores have been updated on the 2012 Republican Primary predictions.
Enjoy,
Dave

I still think you really need to address the issue of Iowa and it's scoring. I and several other people have all said that Santorum and Romney state wins should garner one point and Paul state wins should garner half a point


Title: Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
Post by: Penelope on March 04, 2012, 10:59:45 am
Accuracy: 107%

Whaaa?