Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: pbrower2a on September 16, 2011, 02:11:07 AM



Title: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 16, 2011, 02:11:07 AM
I see a big problem with some of the maps that show how the President does against certain Republicans.  Here I start a new set (no surprise) that no longer treats a 49-41 margin (which really is huge) and a virtual tie with the same level of shading.

An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps will show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are almost moot.

Because it is hard to take seriously anyone who has formally resigned,  whose campaign is bankrupt, or whose campaign shows signs of insignificance I am not showing margins for President Obama against Huckabee, Gingrich, Palin, Cain, Santorum, Trump, Paul, or Bachmann here. I am also beginning with polls that start on 8-28. For all practical purposes we are seeing some candidacies winnowed out and Rick Perry treated seriously. 

The latest poll prevails, but no poll may be commissioned by trade associations, unions or professional groups, ethnic or advocacy groups, clearly left or right news organizations (examples: Daily Kos or Newsmax). Internal polls, interactive polls, and push polls are to be rejected.   
 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)

Comments?


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 16, 2011, 09:13:36 AM
You know I thought this forum was filled with people that actually knew something about election analysis.

Ask any professional poster, this far out head to head match ups are near useless, but what is a little more telling is:

A's approval/disapproval vs. B's approval/disapproval...the polls always converge on that anyway.

Yet, it seems like everybody would rather just use the head to heads.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: TJ in Oregon on September 16, 2011, 09:32:44 AM
You know I thought this forum was filled with people that actually knew something about election analysis.

Ask any professional poster, this far out head to head match ups are near useless, but what is a little more telling is:

A's approval/disapproval vs. B's approval/disapproval...the polls always converge on that anyway.

Yet, it seems like everybody would rather just use the head to heads.

I think pbrower often overreacts to the current polls. I think he undervalues past election results and take his analysis with a grain of salt but that's just me. Still, while it may not be the best measure it shouldn't be discounted entirely.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 16, 2011, 10:06:49 AM
You know I thought this forum was filled with people that actually knew something about election analysis.

Ask any professional poster, this far out head to head match ups are near useless, but what is a little more telling is:

A's approval/disapproval vs. B's approval/disapproval...the polls always converge on that anyway.

Yet, it seems like everybody would rather just use the head to heads.

So do I. Head-to-head matchups night show how people react at the polls when they perceived a flawed President meeting a weak challenger, which so far seems what awaits us in November of next year.

Of course -- but they can show trends and the effects of events even as seemingly trivial as major speeches.

1. Raw approvals differ from pollster to pollster because of the methodologies of pollsters. Some may be more persistent than others in getting people on the edge to make an opinion while on the phone, and those more persistent may get fewer undecided respondents (and higher levels of approval and disapproval). Margins in matchups are more consistent.

2. The polls used for getting matchups can have polls of favorability (which do not compare to approval) and the infamous excellent-good-fair-poor split (what does "fair" mean?) if they have matchups. With margins of matchups we can see how someone does against someone else.

3. Speeches might not be so trivial as they seem; they can show significant changes of economic or foreign policy or the impending implementation of a military decision (let us say "We have just invaded Cuba" if such is ever so)*.

4. Much can change and will. It is highly unlikely that Republicans will find a "knight in shining armor" who inspires independent voters as an attractive alternative to the President. It's probably too late for that.

5. If Americans have become more fussy about whom they vote for in the polls, then that may depress the approval of both sides in an election for now. Barring the entry of a strong third-party alternative (Perot 1992, Wallace 1968), the winner of the 2012 election isn't going to win 42-38. Head-to-head matchups are what is most available and reliable now.

6. Personalities matter greatly. We do not elect robots.  Maybe IBM's "Watson" would be a good ruler; as a computer it is not available under the strictures of our Constitution.   

We are trying to predict the future and have some credibility. At worst one can act like an astrologer or try to read one of Nostradamus' quatrains into the 2012 election (I am not sure that one exists, and all of the quatrains are ambiguous in interpretation even if they are  valid).   At best one merges historical precedents and current measurements.

*Not something that I advocate. Military aggression is a horrible crime. 


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on September 16, 2011, 10:16:38 AM
well, these polls are important in that someone like me, who doesn't like Romney, would be willing to vote for Romney over Perry is it is apparent that Perry underpolls Romney by more than a couple of points.

so, basically, Romney does have a shot if he can convince the jmfcst's that he is by far their best bet.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on September 16, 2011, 10:30:45 AM
Rasmussen is reporting that Perry trails Obama by 7, but Romney leads Obama by 3.

...if a spread anywhere close to that wide continues til the eve of the Iowa Caucus, Romney will be the nominee


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 16, 2011, 10:38:26 AM
Favorable/unfavorable
and
Approval/disapproval

Are vastly more consistent and less volatile than head to heads. Its not even close. It takes a very long time for a person to get positive movement in them.

2 examples:
1) Throughout 2007 Clinton had an absolutely horrible favorables. It took an entire year of strong debate performances and casting herself as a centrist for her favorables to even move to even. And that's where they remained for remainder of the primary season.
2) Newt's debate performances over the last few months have been among the best among the GOP candidates, yet his favorable/unfavorable ratings are still in the toilet and have only nudged a little off their lows.

In 2007 I predicted Obama would take the nomination almost purely on the favorable/unfavorable metric when every head to head had him getting crushed and every pollster writing him off.

Also, a pollster can just as easily press an undecided to pick a candidate as they can push someone to pick a favorable/unfavorable rating.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 16, 2011, 10:41:36 AM
Rasmussen is reporting that Perry trails Obama by 7, but Romney leads Obama by 3.

...if a spread anywhere close to that wide continues til the eve of the Iowa Caucus, Romney will be the nominee

Aren't you the guy who has regularly told us that Romney has no path to the nomination? ;)


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on September 16, 2011, 10:45:16 AM
Rasmussen is reporting that Perry trails Obama by 7, but Romney leads Obama by 3.

...if a spread anywhere close to that wide continues til the eve of the Iowa Caucus, Romney will be the nominee

Aren't you the guy who has regularly told us that Romney has no path to the nomination without the vote of jmfcst? ;)

yes, I am


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 16, 2011, 10:45:38 AM
Quinnipiac shows approval for the President tied 48-48, but with huge margins against both Perry and Romney :

Quote
In 2012 general election matchups, Obama tops Perry 52 - 33 percent and beats Romney 49 - 36 percent. In both races, the president carries independent voters, 45 - 33 percent over Perry and 41 - 37 percent over Romney.

"President Barack Obama getting only a 48 - 48 percent approval rating in blue Connecticut shows just how far the president has fallen. But despite the president's split approval rating, he still beats the leading Republican contenders," Schwartz said.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1646

Quinnipiac shows no other matchups involving the President and any Republican challenger.

When I made the first map I missed polls for matchups involving the President in West Virginia. He would lose by 11% to Romney and 12% to Perry, or is it the other way around? The coding doesn't matter. 

An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps will show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)

Connecticut is out of the question for any Republican nominee for President in 2012.



Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on September 16, 2011, 10:49:18 AM
Quinnipiac shows approval for the President tied 48-48, but with huge margins against both Perry and Romney :

Quote
In 2012 general election matchups, Obama beats Romney 49 - 36 percent. In both races, the president carries independent voters, 41 - 37 percent over Romney.

and you believe that?


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on September 16, 2011, 10:58:21 AM
Quinnipiac shows approval for the President tied 48-48, but with huge margins against both Perry and Romney :

Quote
In 2012 general election matchups, Obama beats Romney 49 - 36 percent. In both races, the president carries independent voters, 41 - 37 percent over Romney.

and you believe that?

Yeah no $hit. Some people really want to advertise they are a gullible retard.

yeah, how does Romney lose indies by 4 yet the whole election by 13?!


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 16, 2011, 12:19:53 PM
You know I thought this forum was filled with people that actually knew something about election analysis.

Ask any professional poster, this far out head to head match ups are near useless, but what is a little more telling is:

A's approval/disapproval vs. B's approval/disapproval...the polls always converge on that anyway.

Yet, it seems like everybody would rather just use the head to heads.

I think pbrower often overreacts to the current polls. I think he undervalues past election results and take his analysis with a grain of salt but that's just me. Still, while it may not be the best measure it shouldn't be discounted entirely.

Polls so far show that patterns set as early as 1992 are largely so. Eighteen states and DC haven't voted for any Republican nominee since 1992, and the Democratic nominee will have to be an abject failure to lose any of those. Those states and DC comprise about 243 electoral votes, or a little more than 90% of the electoral votes that President Obama will need in winning re-election. He can't afford to lose any of them, and he won every one of them by a margin in excess of 10% in 2008. Three states (IA, NH, NM) have gone to the Democratic nominee in four of the last five Presidential elections; they comprise 17 electoral votes, and President Obama won every one of those by at least 9%.  It is going to take some shocking event for any state in either category for any of those states (let alone DC) to go for any Republican nominee.


Thirteen states comprising 101 electoral votes (NE-02 excluded) haven't gone for any Democratic nominee for President since 1992. President Obama won while losing every one of the states in that group by at least 8%. It's hard to see how President Obama wins any electoral votes in that group except NE-02 in 2012 because those states will all need major shifts in voting behavior or shocking events to make them go for the President. Add to those five states that Bill Clinton won twice (Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia) for which he was a very poor fit and will be again in 2012 -- 38 electoral votes, equal to Texas, and it now looks as if the President could win Texas before he wins any one of those, and Texas is arguably out of reach -- barring some shocking events that nobody can predict.

It looks as if the President is in a position in which he wins re-election if he wins one of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, or Virginia -- or the pair of Colorado and Nevada. Perry would win North Carolina but lose Virginia if the election were to be held today; Romney would win Virginia but lose North Carolina, so a choice between Perry and Romney looks like a choice between two forms of checkmate for now, and that is before I discuss Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada.

Of course political reality is never static. Such is the hope for any Republican candidate for the Presidency. The one aspect of life unlikely to change between now and November 2012 is unlikely to change -- that people are unhappy with the economic reality. Such was true in 2010, and such is unlikely to change in view of political gridlock -- except for the worse. Who gets the blame? Approval ratings for everyone involved -- the President and Congress -- are depressed. If approval for everything in politics is down, then who loses more?

Rules change some in hard times, but not that much.



 


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on September 16, 2011, 01:03:16 PM
pbrower2a, it would matter if Obama's rating was at 20% and Congress' was at 5%, it's the party holding the White House that gets killed.  Only FDR was able to lay the blame on his predecessor since the crash of Oct 1929 came 3.5 years prior to FDR taking office in 1933 and FDR was sworn in at the very bottom.

That's not the case this time:  things aren't (at least yet) as bad, and Obama took office only 3 months after the crisis.

so you are delusional if you think Obama's party isnt going to take 90% of the pain at the polls if the UE is at 9% come Nov 2012


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 16, 2011, 01:17:00 PM
Quinnipiac shows approval for the President tied 48-48, but with huge margins against both Perry and Romney :

Quote
In 2012 general election matchups, Obama beats Romney 49 - 36 percent. In both races, the president carries independent voters, 41 - 37 percent over Romney.

and you believe that?

Yeah no $hit. Some people really want to advertise they are a gullible retard.

Who am I to challenge Quinnipiac polling? It is usually are pretty good.

I think people are simply unhappy with every aspect of political life. With whom are they more unhappy? A RINO could probably defeat President Obama, but there aren't many of those left. Ed Brooke, William Milliken, John Warner, and Charles Percy are far too old. Lincoln Chaffee isn't a Republican anymore, and Arnold Schwarzenegger is constitutionally ineligible. Third-Party challenge? It may be too late.  

Have you ever been through a divorce? If you have (as an ex or a child), then you were unhappy with almost everything for some time. As a nation we have been through a sort of divorce with the sort of prosperity that we used to take for granted. Much like an ex, that sort of prosperity isn't going to come back.  It took nearly ten years for Americans to have become as prosperous as they had been at the brink of the Great Stock Market Crash. Such prosperity as Americans had in 1939 was very different from what it was in 1929, and it wasn't easy to achieve. We could be in for an analogous set of hardships, dislocations, and (often unsettling) reforms.

The Tea Party types have failed catastrophically, thank you, after winning one election.

But I can say this of 1939 -- many people who as adults  in 1929 didn't have cars, radios, or refrigerators  had them in 1939. Maybe nobody was confident enough to bid up stock prices or real estate values, but such was just as well. The 1930s were a good time in which to start a small business, unions began to protect the interests of working people, a minimum wage was in place, bank deposits were safe again, and old people were no longer consigned to destitution once they could no longer work. In 1928 Americans had the illusion of prosperity but did not know how shaky their prosperity was; in 1939 such prosperity as they had was genuine.  


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 16, 2011, 07:10:40 PM
Two from PPP, 8-24

Iowa:

Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 39%

Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 38%


Wisconsin:



Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 42%

Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 40%

One slightly older and very significant:

Ohio

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 52%

...

Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%

Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 41%

An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps will show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)

The President's  approval ratings were not very good in either state at the time.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: Averroλs Nix on September 17, 2011, 01:10:54 PM
Ask any professional poster, this far out head to head match ups are near useless, but what is a little more telling is:

A's approval/disapproval vs. B's approval/disapproval...the polls always converge on that anyway.

Totally concur, but what's interesting about this election cycle is that everyone has net negative approval ratings: Congress, Congressional Republicans, Congressional Democrats, Obama, and the Republican Presidential candidates.

Admittedly, head-to-heads are a lousy way of augmenting this information.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: Penelope on September 17, 2011, 01:33:27 PM
I'd been meaning to do something like this for some time.

I agree that it's fairly useless to use head-to-head-polls at this point in the race, but it's still fun, and this thread will at least provide a record of what the margins were at this point in time, regardless of however the race ends up. Good on you for starting it, pbrower.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 18, 2011, 12:35:45 AM
I'd been meaning to do something like this for some time.

I agree that it's fairly useless to use head-to-head-polls at this point in the race, but it's still fun, and this thread will at least provide a record of what the margins were at this point in time, regardless of however the race ends up. Good on you for starting it, pbrower.

True -- but we have the head-to-head polls and some confusing and often contradictory polls on approval or favorability. But "Obama or Romney?" or "Obama or Perry" can be said with little variation.  

Many questions remain unanswered? Are people now paying politics to an unusual extent more than a year before an election? Are they getting ideas about the positions and rhetoric of major candidates? How will the economy do? Will there be scandals?

I can think of many ways in which the President loses his re-election bid. I can see more ways in which he wins. About all that anyone can now say based on existing polls is that before the President does any serious campaigning for re-election, before the primaries, and before negative ads begin.  About all that I can conclude is that I project the Presidential election of 2012 to look enough like that of 2008 that the President will win in much the same way as he did against John McCain -- maybe a couple states fewer against Romney but probably as many against Perry.

...I have replaced the PPP poll of North Carolina with the one from Magellan. Magellan is an R-leaning pollster, but its poll comes later and shows an apparent move in favor of the President that I might not expect from that pollster. 


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 18, 2011, 01:36:32 AM
Ask any professional poster, this far out head to head match ups are near useless, but what is a little more telling is:

A's approval/disapproval vs. B's approval/disapproval...the polls always converge on that anyway.

Totally concur, but what's interesting about this election cycle is that everyone has net negative approval ratings: Congress, Congressional Republicans, Congressional Democrats, Obama, and the Republican Presidential candidates.

Admittedly, head-to-heads are a lousy way of augmenting this information.

To clarify, the presidential candidates don't have "approval ratings".  They have "favorability ratings".  "Job approval" has to do with how voters think someone is doing at their job.  Romney and most of the others don't have jobs, so they don't have job approval ratings.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: Averroλs Nix on September 18, 2011, 09:34:38 PM
To clarify, the presidential candidates don't have "approval ratings".  They have "favorability ratings".  "Job approval" has to do with how voters think someone is doing at their job.  Romney and most of the others don't have jobs, so they don't have job approval ratings.

It was sloppy to use the terms interchangeably. But Perry and Romney both have poor favorability ratings, and my point stands.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 19, 2011, 05:22:55 PM
Pennsylvania, Washington.

Pennsylvania, Magellan (R)

OBAMA 50%, ROMNEY 40%, UNDECIDED 10%
OBAMA 52%, PERRY 37%, UNDECIDED 11%

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Magellan-Pennsylvania-2012-General-Election-Survey-Release-0919111.pdf

People are very unhappy with American politics at the federal level, at the least, but the GOP has shown little ability to take advantage of this. The President's approval rating is 44% but with a 47% disapproval in Pennsylvania.

Washington State, Strategies 360

Quote
More than a year out from the 2012 election, the poll shows Obama beating Perry, the Texas governor, 51-37. Against Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, Obama is up 49-40.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/avantgo/2016249660.html


An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps will show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)


At this point I see no cause to believe that Rick Perry would do even as well as John McCain did in 2008, and that Mitt Romney would do enough better against President Obama to have a chance to win. Perry does far worse than Romney in the North (including the swing states of Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia) 


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 20, 2011, 01:49:13 PM
Quote
Texas Survey Results


Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 44%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 51%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 41%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 47%
Undecided....................................................... 13%

But take a look at this crosstab:

Quote
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain................................................... 50%
Barack Obama................................................ 42%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 8%

Are Texas' demographics changing that quickly? McCain won the state by roughly 12%. A Republican nominee really needs to win Texas by about 15% to win nationwide.

With this sort of approval rating for a sitting Governor,

Quote
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

the President's campaign for re-election will surely have copious material for negative ads to play in states seen on the edge of voting for or against him. Such ads will feature photogenic people with backdrops of places like Dallas and San Antonio saying unflattering things about "their" Governor...

Even with the favorite son advantage Texas is closer to flipping toward President Obama than any of the states reliable for Clinton (Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia) that President Obama got clobbered in in 2008.   


Barack Obama, as an exotic, cosmopolitan, intellectual city-slicker is a horrible match for Arkansas:

Quote
Q: If the Presidential election were today and your choices were Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Rick Perry, for whom would you vote?

34%     Barack Obama
53%     Rick Perry
13%     Don't Know

Q: If the Presidential election were today and your choices were Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?

33.5%    Barack Obama
49.5%    Mitt Romney
17%       Don't Know 

http://www.talkbusiness.net/article/ARKANSANS-RATE-OBAMA-JOB-PERFORMANCE-2-TO-1-NEGATIVE/2503/

Oddly, Democrats show reasonable prospects of picking off a Congressional seat or two in Arkansas. As a liberal I prefer that the Blue Dog Democrats capable of compromise wield the balance of power than that the Tea Party extremists do. Arkansas Democrats  will need to show that they can stand up to President Obama, though, when such is good for the sensibilities of their districts. Such may be more valuable to the President than the six electoral votes of Arkansas.     


An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)


At this point I see no cause to believe that Rick Perry would do even as well as John McCain did in 2008, and that Mitt Romney would do enough better against President Obama to have a chance to win. Perry does far worse than Romney in the North (including the swing states of Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia)  


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 21, 2011, 03:25:46 PM
You knew that someone would poll Florida, even if it is someone that few of us know.

Quote
Obama vs Perry

Obama       47.7
Perry          39.8
Undecided  12.5

Valid
Obama       43.5
Romney      44.7
Undecided  11.8

https://warroomlogistics.com/library/wrl092011-topline_all.pdf

A bit over-precise. President Obama would have a far better chance of winning Florida against Romney (he'd have to pick up 6.5 of the 11.8 "undecided") than does Perry have of winning against President Obama (Perry would have to pick up 11.2 of 12.5 undecided). Republicans can't win without Florida, but President Obama can win without it -- not that anyone can trust Rick Scott with the electoral process.

Other Republican challengers all lose by at least 10%.

Does anyone have a problem with me rounding 7.85% to 8%? It's the integer that counts here, either way.

This one has all the excitement of the wildlife reel "Hungry Hawk vs. Rabbit with Nowhere to Go":

Quote
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 58%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 32%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 53%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 40%
Undecided....................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_0921424.pdf


An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)


At this point I see no cause to believe that Rick Perry would do even as well as John McCain did in 2008, or that Mitt Romney would do enough better against President Obama to have a chance to win. Perry does far worse than Romney in the North (including the swing states of Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia)  -- and now Florida.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: greenforest32 on September 21, 2011, 07:51:06 PM
I enjoy these threads/maps pbrower2a. Please keep them up.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 22, 2011, 05:52:57 PM
Michigan could be close for Obama against Romney... it usually looks close a year before the election, as in 2008. Having ties to the state helps, although he has about as many ties to Michigan as Al Gore had to Tennessee in 1999.  He begins with much good will because of early connections with the state, but if he loses touch with Michigan, then he loses the state -- much as Al Gore lost Tennessee in  2000. Just take a good look at neighboring Ohio; he has to pick up one of the two to have a meaningful chance to win, and he has little room for error.


Vote Romney……………………………………………………….42%
Lean Romney……………………………………………………….2%

Vote Obama………………………………………………………..42%
Lean Obama………………………………………………………..3%

Perry would be trounced:

Vote Perry…………………………………………………………..35%
Lean Perry…………………………………………………………..4%

Vote Obama………………………………………………………..47%
Lean Obama………………………………………………………..3%

http://www.mrgmi.com/MRG_IMP_09_21_11_FINAL.pdf

If anyone wants to see what the Favorite Son effect is, then here it is.

Quinnipiac just polled Florida, but largely concurs with the other pollster. The later poll supplants an earlier one:

Obama             44%  
Perry                42  

Obama                40%
Romney               47  

The good news for President Obama is that Perry leads among registered Republicans against Mitt Romney in a state that can easily make or break a primary race.

An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)


At this point I see no cause to believe that Rick Perry would do even as well as John McCain did in 2008, or that Mitt Romney would do enough better against President Obama to have a chance to win. Perry does far worse than Romney in the North (including the swing states of Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia)  -- and now Florida.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 26, 2011, 02:08:36 PM
Big one here!

56-36 Obama vs. Romney
56-33 Obama vs. Perry

(Siena College)

I didn't say that it would be interesting or surprising. I love New York... politics! 

The President has apparently been slipping in Virginia:

http://roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/RC%20Poll%20Sept.%202011.pdf


Suppose the Republican Party nominated Mitt Romney for President. Would you vote for

Obama 36.9
Romney 44.7

If Rick Perry were the Republican nominee, would you vote for

Obama 39.0
Perry    41.8


An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)


At this point I see no cause to believe that Rick Perry would do even as well as John McCain did in 2008, or that Mitt Romney would do enough better against President Obama to have a chance to win. Perry does far worse than Romney in the North (including the swing states of Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia)  -- and now Florida.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 28, 2011, 04:46:37 PM
Two Q polls from big states in electoral votes:

A. Pennsylvania

Quote
In an early look at the 2012 presidential election:

    President Barack Obama gets 45 percent to 43 percent for Romney, a tie and virtually unchanged from the August 2 Quinnipiac University poll;
    President Obama tops Perry 46 - 40 percent, also virtually unchanged;
    Obama beats Santorum 45 - 42 percent, compared to 45 - 43 percent.

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 54 - 43 percent of the job Obama is doing, unchanged from the results August 2. Voters say 51 - 44 percent that Obama does not deserve a second term, compared to 52 - 42 percent August 2.


Also,
 
Quote
"Pennsylvania voters say stick to the winner-take-all formula used in most states: Whoever gets the most popular votes, wins all of the state's Electoral College votes," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The survey, not surprisingly, comes down along party lines. With 20 electoral votes at stake in a state that hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, Republicans see an advantage in having electoral votes divided between candidates based on the individual congressional districts they win."

"Democrats especially are opposed, while independent voters side with them. Strangely, Republicans are not strongly in favor of the change," Malloy added.


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1653

1. I don't know whether Pennsylvania would get such a change through simple majority votes of the two houses of the state legislature and the signature of the Governor... or through a referendum.

2. Even with such a low approval number for the President, he apparently wins against both Perry and Romney, according to Quinnipiac. Such bodes ill for any Republican nominee unless the President utterly collapses (which he has not yet done).

3. I ignore Rick Santorum.

4. President Obama probably can't win re-election without Pennsylvania.

B. Ohio

Quote
In 2012 general election matchups:

    President Barack Obama gets 44 percent to Perry's 41 percent, too close to call;
    President Obama gets 44 percent to Romney's 42 percent, also too close to call.

Ohio voters disapprove 53 - 42 percent of the job Obama is doing, matching his lowest overall approval, and say 51 - 43 percent that the president does not deserve to be reelected.
 

Quote
In 2012 general election matchups:

    President Barack Obama gets 44 percent to Perry's 41 percent, too close to call;
    President Obama gets 44 percent to Romney's 42 percent, also too close to call.

Ohio voters disapprove 53 - 42 percent of the job Obama is doing, matching his lowest overall approval, and say 51 - 43 percent that the president does not deserve to be reelected.


1. The Republican nominee must win Ohio to have a chance to win. The state has voted with the winner every time for since at least 1972.

2. The approval rate for the President is poor -- but he still has a very good chance of winning the state. Such shows a huge problem for the Republican nominee of 2012 unless things change dramatically by November of next year -- and of course to the benefit of the Republican nominee. That is asking for a lot.

3. Nothing changes from the PPP poll of last month.  

$. Quinnippiac apparently ignores Santorum in Ohio.
  


An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)


At this point I see no cause to believe that Rick Perry would do even as well as John McCain did in 2008, or that Mitt Romney would do enough better against President Obama to have a chance to win. Perry does far worse than Romney in the North (including the swing states of Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia)  -- and now Florida.



Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 29, 2011, 03:38:08 PM
PPP released results for Florida. Bad news for Republicans who want Florida to be a sure thing for their nominee:

Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 46%
Disapprove...................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

The President can win the state with such an approval rating now  when news is mostly bleak. His approval at this stage has to be about 44% as an incumbent if he is to have a 50-50 chance of winning it.

Quote
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 43%
Undecided....................................................... 8%


Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Q13 Do you agree or disagree with the following
statement: “Social Security is a Ponzi
Scheme.”
Agree .............................................................. 25%
Disagree ......................................................... 63%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 45%
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7%  

President Obama would win Florida decisively against Rick Perry and is in a virtual tie with Mitt Romney. The political mix looks much like what President Obama won with in 2008, and President Obama is in a virtual tie with Mitt Romney. Q13 demonstrates where Rick Perry has ensured that he will not be the next President if the United States.

The Republican nominee can't win without Florida. President Obama could lose the state (especially if Governor Rick Scott does some political chicanery) and still win nationwide.  


An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)


At this point I see no cause to believe that Rick Perry would do even as well as John McCain did in 2008, or that Mitt Romney would do enough better against President Obama to have a chance to win. Perry does far worse than Romney in the North (including the swing states of Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia)  -- and now Florida.




Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on September 30, 2011, 02:55:26 PM
Quote
Connecticut Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 48%
Disapprove...................................................... 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 53%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 41%
Undecided....................................................... 7%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

“Connecticut probably won’t be a swing state at the end of the day,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “But the fact that it’s even close there at this point is
symbolic of his broader issues.”


An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to. He needs to keep a hold of some legitimate swing states.

Rick Perry would lose catastrophically.




Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 01, 2011, 01:07:32 PM
Big one -- Virginia, and from a pollster that used to give lots of statewide polls and may be warming up. It's a virtual tie between Obama and Romney, and Perry seems to be falling apart.

Quote
Virginia(Rasmussen)

Romney: 46%
Obama: 45%

Obama: 50%
Perry: 40%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_presidential_election

(You will have to pay Rasmussen to see more). 


An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to. He needs to keep a hold of some legitimate swing states.



Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 01, 2011, 02:52:26 PM
re: Virginia

This summer I have rarely seen any state swing as wildly as Virginia. The state's political orientation may be more volatile than that of any other State; after all, it has huge numbers of civilian and military government employees and employees of government contractors. Virginians may pay more attention than residents of any other State to politics. The state had about a 60% approval rating for the President in the aftermath of the whacking of Osama bin Laden, which is about one would expect in Massachusetts; that has long abated.

Results in the Obama-Romney matchup are consistent with an approval rating around 45% for the President. Of course it is a virtual tie, and virtual ties in most of the swing states of 2008 in late October 2012 suggest big trouble for a Republican in that the chance of stringing together five must-win scenarios for the Republican nominee (Colorado and Nevada together, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia) best described as 50-50 propositions would give the Republican nominee about one chance in 32 of winning. In statistical parlance that is five independent events. "Indiana" would not count as an  independent event because President Obama has no way of winning Indiana without winning Ohio; "Arizona" implies that the President has won Colorado and Nevada and won; "Georgia" implies that the President has won Florida and North Carolina and won, so that's one way of explaining what an "independent event" isn't. I'm not going to discuss Missouri, which is within the range of a virtual tie. 

Now as for Perry... a Republican candidate can lose Virginia in a close election, but by 10%? Such suggests an utter collapse. Virginia is at least R+2, so such projects to about a 57-43 split nationwide. At such a point I see the President winning everything that he won in 2008 while picking up Missouri, Georgia, and Arizona at the least.       


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 03, 2011, 07:55:32 PM
Did anyone expect the President to be in trouble in his own state?


http://www.myfoxchicago.com/dpp/news/politics/illinois-obama-approval-rating-poll-romney-home-state-perry-cain-presidential-2012-reelection-20111003

Obama: 52.35%
Perry: 30.20%

Obama: 50.26%
Romney: 34.79%

Nope.


An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to. He needs to keep a hold of some legitimate swing states.




Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 03, 2011, 09:35:12 PM
This is from a Republican pollster, War Room Logistics:

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/files/wrl093011-writeup.pdf

Unless you see a reason for a Republican pollster to inflate the chances of President Obama or these results represent some huge error (tell me if you see such), I see a big gain for President Obama against Mitt Romney  in Florida. The Republican nominee basically must win some large northern state to offset Florida. 

A collapse mode for Rick Perry is not to be ruled out in view of a recent poll in Virginia.  I may have to drop him.


Obama 53.30%  Perry 36.30%

Obama 47.50%  Romney 42.30%



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to. He needs to keep a hold of at least one legitimate swing state (Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia) or the combination of Colorado and Nevada.





Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 05, 2011, 10:29:35 AM
A poll from Michigan shows the President 47-44 ahead of Romney and nothing on him against Perry. Only the Obama/Romney split is shown, so the one for Obama/Perry doesn't change.  It looks good for Mitt Romney; his father was a well-respected governor of Michigan.

Here's one for Maryland, but it has two quirks. Like the Michigan poll,  it doesn't show an Obama-Perry matchup, so Maryland appears blank for such. (Anyone who expects Rick Perry to fare better in Maryland than in Virginia is a fool, but I don't show what isn't put in print. Second, it suggests a VP nominee -- Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, who is one of the most effective Governors in America.  I can't imagine anyone who would fare better as a running mate.

http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/polls/Maryland%20Poll%20October%202011.pdf



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to. He needs to keep a hold of at least one legitimate swing state (Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia) or the combination of Colorado and Nevada.






Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 06, 2011, 12:36:18 PM
Quote
North Carolina Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 44%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_1006925.pdf

Within the margin of error, and eminently winnable for the President.  If North Carolina is within the margin of error, then the Republicans are going to lose anyway as in 1992 and 2008.


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to. He needs to keep a hold of at least one legitimate swing state (Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia) or the combination of Colorado and Nevada.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 06, 2011, 05:19:49 PM
Probably the state with the most complicated role in national politics -- Nebraska. Redistricting makes it even more complicated now.

Quote
Nebraska Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 35%
Disapprove...................................................... 61%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

No chance for the President at all in Nebraska? Not quite. The state isn't so politically-homogeneous as it looks.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_1006.pdf

Quote
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 41%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 48%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 38%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 51%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Not really, at least statewide.  This isn't spectacular for Mitt Romney, but for a state this Red, it suggests a collapse for Rick Perry in a state that the President lost in 2008 by a margin in the teens.  

Quote
The action in Nebraska is at the Congressional District level though and there Obama has some hope- although not necessarily where you might expect it. After he won the 2nd Congressional District's electoral vote in 2008 Republican redistricters moved more Democratic friendly territory from that district into the 1st and shifted more GOP friendly territory from the 1st into the 2nd.  

That move is having the impact Republicans hoped it would in the 2nd district- Romney leads Obama 50-42 there and Perry has a 48-44 advantage as well.  But in a finding that can certainly go into the 'unintended consequences' file Obama is now up 45-44 on Romney in the new 1st District and leads Perry by a 47-41 margin. Now it's important to note that the margin of error for the numbers in each of these individual Congressional districts is pretty high, but still, Obama would be trailing Romney in both the 1st and 2nd districts under the old lines.  

The best-laid plans of mice and men, let alone state legislators, can backfire. This is in new districts.  It is safe to assume that NE-03 (central and western Nebraska, from roughly Grand Island westward) will go for the Republican nominee by a wider margin than any State -- even Wyoming. You may have been accustomed to seeing the middle square (NE-02) in Nebraska look as if it projects to be a winner for President Obama and the ones on the left and right (NE-01 and NE-03) as losers for the President. That is one of the few assumptions that I can make.

If the Republicans lose even one district in Nebraska, then they have lost nationwide.I would say the inverse of Maine.


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to; he needs win only win  all of those that he won by at least 9%. He needs to keep a hold of at least one legitimate swing state (Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) or pick up Missouri and one  of the three districts of Nebraska.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 08, 2011, 04:23:58 PM
Quote
In 2012 general election matchups:

    President Barack Obama gets 44 percent to Perry's 41 percent, too close to call;
    President Obama gets 44 percent to Romney's 42 percent, also too close to call.

Ohio voters disapprove 53 - 42 percent of the job Obama is doing, matching his lowest overall approval, and say 51 - 43 percent that the president does not deserve to be reelected.

No real change. The Ohio economy is still in the tank.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1652

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. He doesn't need to; he needs win only win  all of those that he won by at least 9%. He needs to keep a hold of at least one legitimate swing state (Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) or pick up Missouri and one  of the three districts of Nebraska.



Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 10, 2011, 11:16:18 AM
I am a bit slow to get this one, but I eventually found it... and I got more than some others did and may have gotten it best.

It looks as if New Hampshire voters are nostalgic about Mitt Romney even if he was Governor of a neighboring State:

Quote
Looking ahead to the 2012 general election, the likelihood of President Obama winning again in New Hampshire depends heavily on the Republican candidate he would face. In a hypothetical race between Obama and Mitt Romney, the current GOP favorite in New Hampshire, Romney leads with 50% to 41% for Obama, 2% for some other candidate, and 7% are undecided. Romney’s lead over Obama has remained largely unchanged since February. Romney holds a 48% to 30% lead among political independents, up slightly from 42% to 32% in July.

but Rick Perry rubs them the wrong way:

Quote
And when Obama is matched against Texas Governor Rick Perry, Obama holds a 49% to 42% lead with 1% favoring some other candidate and 7% undecided. Independents favor Obama over Perry by 42% to 39%.

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2011_fall_primary100711.pdf

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. The President seems to have his work cut out for him in New Hampshire, and if he loses that state he must win either Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or some combination of Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.  


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 11, 2011, 09:46:27 AM
Virginia, Quinnipiac:

Quote
In 2012 general election matchups among all Virginia voters:

    President Obama gets 44 percent to Romney's 45 percent;
    Obama gets 45 percent to Cain's 43 percent;
    Obama leads Perry 47 - 42 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x5822.xml?ReleaseID=1658

Statistical tie, Obama vs. Romney, when the President's approval rating nationwide is still in the tank.

Quote
"The good news for President Barack Obama in Virginia is that he isn't losing match-ups against any of the three leading Republican candidates," said Brown. "The bad news for him is that he is viewed unfavorably by 49 percent of Virginians and favorably by only 45 percent. Moreover, Virginia voters say 51 - 44 percent that Obama does not deserve re-election.

"And Virginia voters disapprove 52 - 45 percent of how the president is doing his job." 

Good news for the President: he is up 54-32 among the 18-34 age group against Romney, which means that if the President's campaign apparatus has an effective GOTV effort in 2012, he wins Virginia against even Romney. People as old as 21 (born late in 1991) did not vote in 2008, and nothing indicates that Republicans are reaching that demographic with desired results.  The youngest voters of 2008 were born in 1990; the youngest voters of 2012 will have been born in 1994.



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. The President seems to have his work cut out for him in New Hampshire, and if he loses that state he must win either Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or some combination of Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.  
[/quote]


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 11, 2011, 03:22:28 PM
Quote

NBC News/Marist Poll

Registered voters (NRVVOTE=1,2): n=2836, MOE +/-1.8%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?


Percent
Approve 42
Disapprove 47
Unsure 11
Total 100

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Percent
Barack Obama, the Democrat 43
Mitt Romney, the Republican 40
Undecided 17
Total 100

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Percent
Barack Obama, the Democrat 46
Rick Perry, the Republican 37
Undecided 18
Total 100

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/IA_PollResults_Questionnaire.pdf

The same pollster showed New Hampshire, and that concurs with the WMUR-TV/UNH poll, so no change there.



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

(
)

Obama vs. Romney

(
)

I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. The President seems to have his work cut out for him in New Hampshire, and if he loses that state he must win either Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or some combination of Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.  


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: FloridaRepublican on October 11, 2011, 03:27:29 PM
I just don't see any Republican that can win Virginia without winning North Carolina.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 11, 2011, 04:29:42 PM
I just don't see any Republican that can win Virginia without winning North Carolina.

Neither do I.

Virginia may be one of the most volatile of states in its orientation. I have seen approval ratings for the President there from about 40% to 55%.  I still figure that President Obama has slightly more than a 50% chance of winning the state. Give the President about a 50% chance of winning Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia against Romney in an election in which he loses New Hampshire and wins one or two of Colorado and Nevada, and the President has about 15 chances in 16 of re-election.   

Perry likely loses every state that I mentioned.   


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 12, 2011, 03:45:20 PM


Now we get a new Iowa poll:
Quote
Iowa Survey Results

Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 39%
Undecided....................................................... 13%

Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 42%
Undecided....................................................... 12%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_1012513.pdf


Slight change, and I wouldn't make much of it:


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

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Obama vs. Romney

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I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. The President seems to have his work cut out for him in New Hampshire, and if he loses that state he must win either Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or some combination of Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.  


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 13, 2011, 03:39:42 PM
Quinnipiac, New Jersey:

Quote
New Jersey voters disapprove 52 - 43 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, his lowest score ever in the Garden State. Disapproval is 88 - 10 percent among Republicans and 60 - 34 percent among independent voters. Democrats approve 77 - 19 percent. There is a large gender gap as women approve 50 - 45 percent while men disapprove 60 - 36 percent.

Voters split 47 - 48 percent on whether President Obama deserves reelection.

Obama leads possible Republican challengers in an early look at 2012 presidential election matchups:

    47 - 41 percent over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney;
    49 - 36 percent over Texas Gov. Rick Perry;
    47 - 38 percent over businessman Herman Cain.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1661

If I see any pattern it is that the President is not leading by as extreme margins  with which he defeated John McCain in 2008, at least against Mitt Romney. Rick Perry is beginning to look like a joke; he would probably lose much like Stevenson against Eisenhower in the 1950s. 


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

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Obama vs. Romney

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I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. The President seems to have his work cut out for him in New Hampshire, and if he loses that state he must win either Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or some combination of Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.  



Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 14, 2011, 11:01:43 AM
WWL-TV (CBS 4, New Orleans), Clarus, Louisiana

Does the Deep South begin to resemble the former Yugoslavia as it was splitting -- at least in politics based upon ethnic identification? It has been 150 years since the Civil War, and one would think that people would have put some old wounds to rest by now as such matters as international terror, drug trafficking, economic distress, the environment (Louisiana has some of the most vulnerable ecosystems in America) and educational achievement are more important.

Tsk, tsk.

http://www.wwltv.com/news/politics/Presidential-Poll-131821978.html


Quote
The vast majority of Obama's support comes from African-Americans. 92 percent give him a favorable rating. Only 17 percent of white voters surveyed gave him a favorable job approval rating.

The statewide telephone poll conducted late last week asked 602 likely voters across Louisiana how they would vote if they had to choose between Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

53 percent said they would vote for Romney, while 37 percent chose Obama. 10 percent are undecided.

If Texas Gov. Rick Perry were the Republican choice, 52 percent said they would vote for Perry. Again, 37 percent voted for Obama, in that head-to-head matchup. 11 percent said they were undecided.

Faucheux says Romney does better than Perry in the metro New Orleans/southeastern Louisiana region. Perry does better in the northern and central parts of the state.

PPP has a new poll for West Virginia, and it shows no change.


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

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Obama vs. Romney

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I don't see the President winning by the gaudy numbers by which he won in some states that he won in 2008 if the opponent is Mitt Romney. The President seems to have his work cut out for him in New Hampshire, and if he loses that state he must win either Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or some combination of Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.  




Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 14, 2011, 11:12:46 PM
Quote
In Michigan, Obama Leads Romney by 11 Points, Leads Paul by 18, Leads Cain, Perry, Bachmann, and Gingrich by More than 20 Points:

Michigan registered voters were asked about a number of high-profile Republican candidates running for president against Barack Obama. In elections for President in Michigan today 10/14/11, it's:

* Obama 50%, Mitt Romney 39%.
* Obama 52%, Ron Paul 34%.
* Obama 53%, Herman Cain 32%.
* Obama 53%, Rick Perry 32%.
* Obama 54%, Newt Gingrich 31%.
* Obama 56%, Michele Bachmann 30%.

Cell-Phone respondents included in this research: 545 Michigan adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/12/11 through 10/14/11. Of them, 500 were registered to vote. This research was conducted multi-mode: respondents reachable on a home phone (69% of respondents) were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. "Cell phone" respondents -- those not reachable on a home phone (31% of respondents) -- saw the questions displayed visually on their smartphone or other electronic device. Cell phone respondents occasionally, but not always, vote differently than do landline respondents. For example: Mitt Romney trails Obama by 5 points among landline respondents but by 25 points among cell-phone respondents. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Romney trails by 11. Newt Gingrich trails Obama by 13 points among landline respondents, but by 46 points among cell-phone respondents. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Gingrich trails by 23.

Strange pollster. SUSA has gotten some weird results that look very R... but this one is about the opposite. It looks consistent with the President having about a 50% approval rating or in essence, that the President is about to win about as he did in 2008, with huge margins in most of the states that he won in in 2008. No event so suggests that such has happened, and I see no evidence of a Romney collapse in recent days.

If Michiganders are more upbeat because the Detroit Tigers were doping well in the playoffs -- that won't last. You'd be surprised at what creates a climate of optimism.   

President Obama wins Michigan big if the auto industry has a significant rebound by 2012. Michigan gets polled fairly often, so if this poll is a fluke, then it won't last.   


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

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Obama vs. Romney

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Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 18, 2011, 02:21:30 PM
I am about to close my contributions to this particular thread. Rick Perry has undergone a nearly-complete crash in his approvals. This week PPP releases matchups between President Obama and Republicans in Hawaii and Ohio -- one state that President Obama has virtually no chance of losing, and one that is as close to a bellwether as there is. Perry dropped to sixth place in Ohio, and I see that as a sign that he cannot win the Republican primary. I will go so far as the Hawaii and Ohio polls, but that will be the end.  I am completely satisfied that although Mitt Romney has a chance to defeat President Obama, Rick Perry stands to lose roughly 410-128 with Texas as  the iffy divide.

I am going to start a thread on Obama vs. Romney and Obama vs. Cain today. I would have never expected a fast-food tycoon to have a valid shot at the Republican nomination... but the statistics do not lie. If any election shows that anyone can become President... it is 2012.


Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 19, 2011, 08:36:18 PM
This came in before the polls from PPP for Ohio and Hawaii. President Obama apparently does better against Romney than he did against John McCain in 2008. 

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/FL_Poll%20Results_Questionnaire_111018.pdf

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Barack Obama, the Democrat 45
Mitt Romney, the Republican 43
Undecided 12
Total 100



Barack Obama, the Democrat 47
Rick Perry, the Republican 39
Undecided 13
Total 100

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/SC_Poll%20Results_Questionnaire_111018.pdf

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Barack Obama, the Democrat  40
Mitt Romney, the Republican   46
Undecided  14
Total  100

Barack Obama, the Democrat 42
Rick Perry, the Republican       43
Undecided  15
Total  100


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

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Obama vs. Romney

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Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 20, 2011, 11:38:47 AM
Quote
Ohio Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve ............................................................ 43%
Disapprove........................................................ 52%
Not sure ............................................................ 5%

Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama.................................................. 50%
Rick Perry ......................................................... 41%
Undecided......................................................... 10%

Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama.................................................. 46%
Mitt Romney...................................................... 46%
Undecided......................................................... 9%

The latter is about what I would expect in a state in which the President has a 43% approval rating at the time.  Of course Romney will need Ohio with which to win but President Obama has other possibilities that would assure his win. But Rick Perry is showing himself thoroughly unelectable. Romney is electable.

In view of how badly Rick Perry does in Ohio -- that he would lose Ohio by 9% -- it is easy to see why I am going to drop him and start a new thread involving President Obama against Mitt Romney and Herman Cain. Perry has become a travesty, and someone who loses Ohio by by 9% would lose nationwide by about 10%. Perry is going into an electoral collapse as Romney holds his own against President Obama in Ohio. I think that Perry would lose such states as Arizona, Georgia,  Indiana, Montana, and the Dakotas, and in view of his unfortunate ties to a pastor who claims that Mormons aren't real Christians, he might lose Utah. He would win Texas only because of the Favorite Son effect.    I suggest that this thread be closed now; no Republican has a chance of winning the four electoral votes of Hawaii, anyway, and hasn't won them since Ronald Reagan did in the 1984 blowout.

Thinking of an alternative? Sure: Here it is:

Quote
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama.................................................. 48%
Herman Cain..................................................... 45%
Undecided......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1018.pdf

Herman Cain may be to the right of everyone who has been running for President as a Republican except perhaps Michele (Political rights be damned unless you are a 'conservative' Republican) Bachmann, a borderline fascist. As a black man he can get away with saying things that right-wing white politicians dare not say because nobody will be able to say that he is a racist. I think that he is to electoral politics what Clarence Thomas is to the judiciary. 


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

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Obama vs. Romney

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Title: Re: Margins -- Perry vs. Obama, Romney vs. Obama
Post by: pbrower2a on October 21, 2011, 12:33:02 AM
Aloha!

Quote
Hawaii Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 56%
Disapprove...................................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 63%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 28%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 59%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 32%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

No surprise here. 


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry

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Obama vs. Romney

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Aloha from this thread.

"Aloha" also means good-bye, as this thread is now locked.