Talk Elections

were held today.

So far, w/ 972 out of 1027 precincts reporting we have (in brackets, compared to the 2010 election)

1. Harmony Center (largely ethnic Russian, led by the Mayor of Riga) 28.91% (+2.87%)

2. Zatlers Reform Party (new party led by the former president who just before his term ended had called for the referendum that dissolved the legislature causing this election) 20.58% (+20.58)

3. Unity (conservative, led by the outgoing PM) 18.43% (-12.79%)

4. National Alliance (right-wing, Letthish nationalist), 13.54% (+5.87%)

5. Green and Peasant Union (ecological-centrist, in the outgoing government coalition) 12.29% (-7.39%)

everybody else is under the 5% threshold (in fact, only one other party came close to 2.5%, the rest are under 1%).


Thu "Russians" are the largest party for the first time ever (though they didn't really improve their results that much).

So the freedom fighters (Harmony Centre) effectively won this election?

In the sense of coming first, yes. But they neither increased their vote share, no came anywhere closer to becoming part of the government. For all practical purposes they are still untouchable.

Aren't they fund by United Russia?

Almost final results.

W/ 1020 out of 1027 precincts reporting we have (in brackets, compared to the 2010 election)

1. Harmony Center (largely ethnic Russian, led by the Mayor of Riga) 28.44% (+2.4%)

2. Zatlers Reform Party (new party led by the former president who just before his term ended had called for the referendum that dissolved the legislature causing this election) 20.73% (+20.73)

3. Unity (conservative, led by the outgoing PM) 18.74% (-12.48%)

4. National Alliance (right-wing, Lettish nationalist), 13.78% (+6.11%)

5. Green and Peasant Union (ecological-centrist, in the outgoing government coalition) 12.12% (-7.56%)

Of the remaining precincts 2 are in Riga, 1 in Vidzeme and 4 in Kurzeme - I'd expect the Harmony Center's share to drop a tiny bit more. So, yeah, for the first time in history, came first in the polls.

I don't know about that. They are, obviously, pro-Russian.

Results by province.

Latgale

Harmony Center 52.08%, 8 seats
Zatlers Reform 13.53% 2 seats
Green and Peasant 12.37%, 2 seats
Unity 9.95% 2 seats
National Alliance 4.58% 1 seat

Zemgale

Zatlers Reform 25.75% 4 seats
Unity 19.97% 3 seats
Harmony Center 17.23% 3 seats
Green and Peasant 15.83% 3 seats
National Alliance 15.52% 3 seats

Riga, Kurzeme and Vidzeme are still counting.

Baring something unexpected in the last few precincts, the seat distribution is likely to be

Harmony Center 34 (+5)
Zatlers Reform 22 (+22)
Unity 19 (-14)
National Alliance 13 (+6)
Green and Peasant 12 (-10)

Note that Harmony Center's share of the vote in this election and the last one almost exactly matches the percentage of ethnic Russians in Latvia.  Looks like they've hit their ceiling.

What were the polls saying before the election ? I'm curious to see if some parties were particularly over/underestimated.

For the record, ZZS is not an "ecological-agrarian party", it is a corrupt party run by a corrupt oligarch. On the good side though, ZZS is now the only major ultra-corrupt oligarchical party in Parliament. The other oligarch parties: TPP/LC led by Ainars Slesers dropped dead this year and the People's Party dissolved.

ZRP is an expressly anti-corruption and anti-oligarch party founded by Zatlers after he lost the presidential election because the oligarchs were pissed that he had dissolved Parliament after Parliament had refused to remove the immunity of Ainars Slesers in a corruption case.

What will be the most likely coalition?

Well, not all Russians in Latvia can vote (only about 60% of them are citizens), and not all those who vote vote for HC.  But, yeah, they've peaked out.

BTW, I goofed up on their previous percentage. It ws 26.04%, not 29.04%, which for some reason I took to be the case. So, I am correcting the change from 2010: they did grow a bit.

With all but a single precinct in Riga reporting we have

1. Harmony Center 28.37% (+2.33%)

2. Zatlers Reform Party (new party led by the former president who just before his term ended had called for the referendum that dissolved the legislature causing this election) 20.82% (+20.82)

3. Unity (conservative, led by the outgoing PM) 18.83% (-12.39%)

4. National Alliance (right-wing, Lettish nationalist), 13.88% (+6.21%)

5. Green and Peasant Union (ecological-centrist, in the outgoing government coalition) 12.22% (-7.46%)

Actually, the final seat distribution, apparently, is slightly different than I had reported

Harmony Center 31 (+2)
Zatlers Reform 22 (+22)
Unity 20 (-13)
National Alliance 14 (+7)
Green and Peasant 13 (-9)

Results for the remaining three areas (sans the last Riga precinct):

Riga

Harmony Center 41.56%, 13 seats
Unity 17.40%, 6 seats
Zalters Reform 15.11%, 5 seats
National Alliance 13.39%, 4 seats
Green and Peasant 5.99%, 2 seats

Kurzeme

Zalters Reform 25.72%, 4 seats
Green and Peasant 23.27%, 3 seats
Unity 18.21%, 2 seats
National Alliance 14.64%, 2 seats
Harmony Center 12.84%, 2 seats

Vidzeme

Zatlers Reform 25.51%, 7 seats
Unity 24.01%, 7 seats
National Alliance 17.35%, 5 seats
Harmony Center 16.27%, 5 seats
Green and Peasant 12.02%, 3 seats

 

Ah, and besides the one Riga precinct we are missing one foreign vote station (Seattle). That's, pretty much, it.

Map!

()