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Title: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Tender Branson on September 20, 2011, 02:57:48 AM 50-60 Mio. - Obama
25 Mio. - Romney 15 Mio. - Perry 8 Mio. - Huntsman 7 Mio. - Bachmann 6 Mio. - Paul 2 Mio. - Cain 2 Mio. - Gingrich 1 Mio. - Santorum Or something like this ... Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Wonkish1 on September 20, 2011, 08:56:28 PM Do you count the DNC Obama sub account or not? Clearly Obama's numbers are amazing when you count those numbers too.
Without an answer on whether the sub account is included then the guesses are meaningless. Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Saxwsylvania on September 20, 2011, 09:08:08 PM Early reports say Romney less than $10 mil., Perry more than $10 mil. Could just be expectations gaming of course.
Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Wonkish1 on September 20, 2011, 09:34:51 PM Alright,
Obama $48mil -----Obama's combined total including his joint account with the DNC Perry $18mil Romney $16mi Paul $8mil Bachmann $6mil Hunstman $5mil Gingrich $4mil Cain $3.5mil Santorum $1.5 Johnson $.5mil Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Tender Branson on September 21, 2011, 04:09:54 AM Do you count the DNC Obama sub account or not? Clearly Obama's numbers are amazing when you count those numbers too. Without an answer on whether the sub account is included then the guesses are meaningless. Of course I count this as well. It's not raised by the DNC, but by Obama himself (+ Joe/Michelle). Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Wonkish1 on September 21, 2011, 11:23:10 AM Yeah but then the donor can't contribute to DNC's general account.
Also it isn't surprising that Obama would way out raise the GOP candidates when his maximum limit under the joint account is 8 times larger than the limit that can be donated to GOP candidates. Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Tender Branson on September 27, 2011, 11:47:26 AM Jim Messina says about 55 million $ were raised this quarter.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/us/politics/obama-addresses-linkedin-forum-in-california.html Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Averroës Nix on September 27, 2011, 12:26:14 PM Revised prediction:
>50 - Obama 15 - Romney 12 - Perry 7 - Paul 6 - Huntsman 5 - Cain 3 - Gingrich 3 - Bachmann <1 - Santorum <1 - Johnson (Karger beat him in Q2!) Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Wonkish1 on September 27, 2011, 04:35:41 PM Huntsman at 4 million+ already. He's yet to report and apparently he's had a rather long fundraising cycle due to his time of entry or something.
Oh and I think I'll revise: Obama up to 55 million as mentioned above Add 1.5 to Cain and 1 million to Newt Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Minnesota Mike on September 27, 2011, 07:10:14 PM Obama $60 mill ($48 mill OFA, $12 mill DNC). The Obama campaign never puts a number out in the press that they are not sure they will hit so I expect them to to be well over $55 mill. The campaign expects to go over 1 Million individual donors sometime next month so despite what you read in the press the small donors are still there for Obama (for the record I am an Obama supporter and donate monthly to his campaign).
Romney $19 mill. - As it becomes more apparent Willard is the GOP frontrunner the establishment money will go to him. Perry $18 mill. - Late start puts him behind Romney. The big question is how much the Super Pacs that support him raise. They rest. Does not matter. Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Wonkish1 on September 27, 2011, 07:37:26 PM Obama $60 mill ($48 mill OFA, $12 mill DNC). The Obama campaign never puts a number out in the press that they are not sure they will hit so I expect them to to be well over $55 mill. The campaign expects to go over 1 Million individual donors sometime next month so despite what you read in the press the small donors are still there for Obama (for the record I am an Obama supporter and donate monthly to his campaign). Romney $19 mill. - As it becomes more apparent Willard is the GOP frontrunner the establishment money will go to him. Perry $18 mill. - Late start puts him behind Romney. The big question is how much the Super Pacs that support him raise. They rest. Does not matter. You've got your OFA and DNC spiel wrong. OFA is the DNC account. Its the name of the DNC account that segregates Obama money from the rest of the DNC. It is also the account that is going to have a lot more than Obama's regular account since the DNC can collect higher contribution numbers. And many professional Dems at the DNC aren't happy about OFA merging with the DNC for this election and running around treating the DNC staff like crap. Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Averroës Nix on September 27, 2011, 07:40:28 PM Huntsman at 4 million+ already. He's yet to report and apparently he's had a rather long fundraising cycle due to his time of entry or something. Oh and I think I'll revise: Obama up to 55 million as mentioned above Add 1.5 to Cain and 1 million to Newt I thought that Huntsman's campaign was "running on fumes" and falling into debt. (I'm not implying that these circumstances are incompatible with him raising more than one million, but I haven't heard anything positive about his fundraising this quarter. And since he's apparently given only $500,000 of his own money to his campaign, I can't imagine where another 3.5 would come from.) EDIT: Oh, crap. Are these cumulative? First cycle in which I've been following the fundraising numbers closely. Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Minnesota Mike on September 27, 2011, 07:50:52 PM Obama $60 mill ($48 mill OFA, $12 mill DNC). The Obama campaign never puts a number out in the press that they are not sure they will hit so I expect them to to be well over $55 mill. The campaign expects to go over 1 Million individual donors sometime next month so despite what you read in the press the small donors are still there for Obama (for the record I am an Obama supporter and donate monthly to his campaign). Romney $19 mill. - As it becomes more apparent Willard is the GOP frontrunner the establishment money will go to him. Perry $18 mill. - Late start puts him behind Romney. The big question is how much the Super Pacs that support him raise. They rest. Does not matter. You've got your OFA and DNC spiel wrong. OFA is the DNC account. Its the name of the DNC account that segregates Obama money from the rest of the DNC. It is also the account that is going to have a lot more than Obama's regular account since the DNC can collect higher contribution numbers. And many professional Dems at the DNC aren't happy about OFA merging with the DNC for this election and running around treating the DNC staff like crap. I am correct. I would post the links but as a newbie I can't post links. OFA is Obama for America, the campaigns main account. Obama Victory fund 2012 is the joint fundraising account with the DNC. That is the campaign account that parcels out the big money contributions to the OFA and the DNC (source FEC) . Even with lower limits OFA is still the larger account because it has a much larger number of contributors. Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Wonkish1 on September 27, 2011, 11:10:35 PM Huntsman at 4 million+ already. He's yet to report and apparently he's had a rather long fundraising cycle due to his time of entry or something. Oh and I think I'll revise: Obama up to 55 million as mentioned above Add 1.5 to Cain and 1 million to Newt I thought that Huntsman's campaign was "running on fumes" and falling into debt. (I'm not implying that these circumstances are incompatible with him raising more than one million, but I haven't heard anything positive about his fundraising this quarter. And since he's apparently given only $500,000 of his own money to his campaign, I can't imagine where another 3.5 would come from.) EDIT: Oh, crap. Are these cumulative? First cycle in which I've been following the fundraising numbers closely. Huntsman's is cumulative by default, date of entry. That is supposedly why he's at $4 million. Keep in mind that if the same was true for candidate even like Cain or Gingrich they would likely be around $5-8 cumulatively. Some article I read said that Huntsman entered in some grace period or something before the end of Q2 and was able to delay reporting. So he's sitting on something like a whole Q plus maybe 2-4 more weeks. Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Averroës Nix on September 27, 2011, 11:21:08 PM Huntsman at 4 million+ already. He's yet to report and apparently he's had a rather long fundraising cycle due to his time of entry or something. Oh and I think I'll revise: Obama up to 55 million as mentioned above Add 1.5 to Cain and 1 million to Newt I thought that Huntsman's campaign was "running on fumes" and falling into debt. (I'm not implying that these circumstances are incompatible with him raising more than one million, but I haven't heard anything positive about his fundraising this quarter. And since he's apparently given only $500,000 of his own money to his campaign, I can't imagine where another 3.5 would come from.) EDIT: Oh, crap. Are these cumulative? First cycle in which I've been following the fundraising numbers closely. Huntsman's is cumulative by default, date of entry. That is supposedly why he's at $4 million. Keep in mind that if the same was true for candidate even like Cain or Gingrich they would likely be around $5-8 cumulatively. Some article I read said that Huntsman entered in some grace period or something before the end of Q2 and was able to delay reporting. So he's sitting on something like a whole Q plus maybe 2-4 more weeks. I know that nothing else would make sense if this were cumulative, but I hadn't realized that Huntsman didn't actually file for Q2. Too much confusion. Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Wonkish1 on September 27, 2011, 11:32:32 PM Yeah Huntsman hasn't filed yet!
Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Minnesota Mike on September 29, 2011, 05:48:17 PM Boston Globe reports Romney will raise between $11-13 mill this quarter. (as newbie I can't post the link, you can google it if you want).
That is really a poor performance for the supposed GOP frontrunner IMO. Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Simfan34 on September 29, 2011, 05:50:21 PM Campaign emails mention a Friday deadline.
Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on September 29, 2011, 05:55:31 PM Yeah Huntsman hasn't filed yet! what does it matter, will he even break 5% in any state, except maybe Utal? Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: The Mikado on September 29, 2011, 06:01:12 PM Romney needs to make real bank to make up for his disappointing previous quarter. You can't run as Mr. Moneybags Establishment Candidate unless you have, you know, money.
Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Simfan34 on September 29, 2011, 06:03:24 PM Romney needs to make real bank to make up for his disappointing previous quarter. You can't run as Mr. Moneybags Establishment Candidate unless you have, you know, money. That does not appear to be happening. Yeah Huntsman hasn't filed yet! what does it matter, will he even break 5% in any state, except maybe Utal? He's at 10% in NH. Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Wonkish1 on September 29, 2011, 07:58:13 PM Looks like Romney closed at only $13 million. His most disappointing Q of this year and in 08.
Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on September 29, 2011, 08:17:38 PM Romney needs to make real bank to make up for his disappointing previous quarter. You can't run as Mr. Moneybags Establishment Candidate unless you have, you know, money. That does not appear to be happening. Yeah Huntsman hasn't filed yet! what does it matter, will he even break 5% in any state, except maybe Utal? He's at 10% in NH. but they havent voted yet Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Averroës Nix on October 01, 2011, 10:09:48 AM What we know so far, and what we guessed:
Romney - 13-14 A. Nix - 15 A-Bob - 15 Wonkish1 - 16 M. Mike - 19 T. Branson - 25 Paul - >5, 8 "within reach" T. Branson - 6 A-Bob - 6.5 A. Nix - 7 Wonkish - 8 Santorum - <1 A. Nix - <1 T. Branson - 1 A-Bob - 1 Wonkish1 - 1.5 Perry - around 10 A-Bob - 11.5 A. Nix - 12 T. Branson - 15 Wonkish - 18 M. Mike - 18 Cain - >2 T. Branson - 2 Wonkish - 5 A. Nix - 5 A-Bob - 3.5 Gingrich - ? T. Branson - 2 A-Bob - 2 A. Nix - 3 Wonkish - 5 Bachmann - ? A. Nix - 3 A-Bob - 4 Wonkish - 6 T. Branson - 7 Johnson - ? Wonkish - .5 A. Nix - <1 Huntsman - ? A-Bob - 2.5 Wonkish - 5 A. Nix - 6 T. Branson - 8 Obama - ? Wonkish - 48 A. Nix - >50 T. Branson - 50-60 A-Bob - 57 M. Mike - 60 I'll continue to edit this post as more information comes in from the "post Q3 fundraising (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=141499.0)" thread. Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Wonkish1 on October 01, 2011, 10:13:42 AM I may have done well so far, but I know I'm about to get beat down big time on Newt's numbers. They're going to be much closer to like 2-3 mil. Maybe 4.
Also the vague words I'm hearing out of the Bachmann camp show that she actually might be closer to 3-4 instead of 6 mil. Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: California8429 on October 01, 2011, 05:27:43 PM 57 Mio. - Obama
15 Mio. - Romney 11.5 Mio. - Perry 6.5 Mio. - Paul 4 Mio. - Bachmann 3.5 Mio. - Cain 2.5 Mio. - Huntsman 2 Mio. - Gingrich 1 Mio. - Santorum Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Averroës Nix on October 05, 2011, 12:30:32 PM With more news on Perry, Romney, and Paul, I'm bumping this.
What we think we know so far, and what we guessed: Perry - 17.2 Wonkish - 18 M. Mike - 18 T. Branson - 15 A-Bob - 11.5 A. Nix - 12 Romney -14.2 A. Nix - 15 A-Bob - 15 Wonkish1 - 16 J. Madrid - 12 M. Mike - 19 T. Branson - 25 Paul - 8.3 Wonkish - 8 A. Nix - 7 T. Branson - 6 A-Bob - 6.5 Cain - 2.8 A-Bob - 3.5 T. Branson - 2 Wonkish - 5 A. Nix - 5 J. Madrid - 5 Santorum - 0.7 A. Nix - <1 T. Branson - 1 A-Bob - 1 J. Madrid - 1 Wonkish1 - 1.5 Gingrich - 0.8 T. Branson - 2 A-Bob - 2 J. Madrid - 3 A. Nix - 3 Wonkish - 5 Bachmann - 3.9 A-Bob - 4 A. Nix - 3 Wonkish - 6 J. Madrid - 6 T. Branson - 7 Johnson - 0.2 A. Nix - <1 Wonkish - .5 Huntsman - 4.5 Wonkish - 5 J. Madrid - 5 A. Nix - 6 A-Bob - 2.5 T. Branson - 8 Obama - 42.1 Wonkish - 48 A. Nix - >50 T. Branson - 50-60 A-Bob - 57 M. Mike - 60 J. Madrid - 62 I'll continue to edit this post as more information comes in from the "post Q3 fundraising (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=141499.0)" thread. Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Wonkish1 on October 05, 2011, 12:55:40 PM So how are we going to do this?
A:Add up the missed millions into a total and divide by the number of candidates the person predicted on. Or B: Calculate the percentage off each person had for each candidate and then average out those percentages. Or C: Some combination of the 2. I'm thinking multiply A and B together?? Title: Re: Predict Q3 fundraising numbers Post by: Niemeyerite on October 05, 2011, 01:13:03 PM 62 Mio. - Obama
12 Mio. - Romney 18 Mio. - Perry (sure bet) 8 Mio. - Paul (sure bet) 6 Mio. - Bachmann 5 Mio. - Cain 5 Mio. - Huntsman 3 Mio. - Gingrich 1 Mio. - Santorum |