Talk Elections

http://www.businesscycle.com/reports_indexes/reportsummarydetails/1091 (http://www.businesscycle.com/reports_indexes/reportsummarydetails/1091)

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This is HUGE!

ECRI has the best track record for calling US Recessions - they've called them correct for decades WITHOUT a single false call.

you can put a fork in Obama, folks, he's done.  UE will be north of 10% come Nov 2012, even *IF* the new US recession ends next summer, which is a BIG *IF*.

You look euphoric.

Congratulations (?).

No, I've just been following ECRI for 15 years and I've come to trust them more than anyone in calling turns of the business cycle, which is why I have been posting their data on this board for the last 10 years.  And there is no other firm with a perfect track record over the last 3 US recessions without a false call.

When ECRI speaks, you better listen.

Most people don't think we ever got out of a recession. Having that fact simply formalized wouldn't make as big of an impact as you think.

no, ECRI is not saying we never got out of a recession.  In fact, in the Spring of 2009 when everyone was calling for an immediate new depression, ECRI said on March 19th, 2009 "No, our indicators are pointing to a recovery starting by the end of Summer 2009"....I posted it back then:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89928.msg2011710;topicseen#msg2011710 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89928.msg2011710;topicseen#msg2011710)

In Mid Dec 2010, their indexes peaked:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=106949.msg2275332;topicseen#msg2275332 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=106949.msg2275332;topicseen#msg2275332)

And in Feb 2011, they warned we were slowing appreaciably:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=111236.msg2369541;topicseen#msg2369541

Now, in Sept 2009, they calling an outright recession.

Interesting quotes from that article:

at least since the 1970s, the pace of U.S. growth – especially in GDP and jobs – has been stair-stepping down in successive economic expansions.

From 1799 to 1929, nearly 90% of U.S. expansions lasted three years or less

Obviously it was Keynesianism which made recessions shorter, shallower, and less frequent, and expansions longer and higher.  The lesson of history is that we should follow exactly the policies of the 1930s through the 1970s. 

  a

actually, the longest two expansions on record came after the 1970's....though not as robust in their intensity as the recoveries before, the expansions of 1982-1990 and 1991-2000 produced a standard of living never before achieved

No, the standard of living was higher before 1973, jmfcst. (I'm only concerned with the working class, obviously).  The expansions of the 1980s and the 1990s were essentially worthless.

Congratulations, Republicans! You've worked hard for this.

The lesson is twofold - the economy is the creature of the State, and bad policy destroys the economy both directly and through fear and elimination of confidence.

Anyone who still believes the economy is a separate 'private' entity rather than an expression of State action is laboring in the dark.

drama, eh?  well, any turkey can tango:

Keyes: By your actions, sir, you are risking the future of the human race!
General Sline: To guarantee the American way of life, I'm willing to take that risk.

It is an excellent quote, jmfcst, but you are alas mistaken.  The 'american way of life' was built by John Maynard Keynes, FDR, LBJ, and a billion little Babbits who, while just as simpleminded as yourself, happened to be better led.  I know you think it is all about toting the gun and pretending to be straight, but that's just window dressing.  The world your masters are building for you will look like 1870, and after all that world looked almost entirely like a filthy slum.  Your children - yes, even yours (you're not rich enough) - will be worse off for the choices your sort made.

That's not what I meant.

Don't congratulate us,; we have not been pushing for one for nearly three years. 

More Obamanomics.

You just like Keynes because he was a member of the Bloomsbury Group.

 The misunderstood's have understood this call for some time and, have been preparing. The IMF made the call about this time last year, started hording gold and silver. Dubya knew it when he started the bail out of the auto's, the fundamentals of collateral and trade were breached, then the nail, was, TARP. Even that illusion was not fully implemented as intended, the dilution escalated, the only thing that was accomplished, was, it bought some time for those that were paying attention. The one who is in denial, are the ones who will first perish. At present, the baggers of TEA are the thumb in the dike. It's simple, hold off further dilution, trade on the basics till repeals can be installed and the pairing down of spending. The Europe reality, there isn't the equity and liberties to cover.
 Hold on, good luck, It will be OK for most.

Well that's not really true, but you've a point and seem to know me awfully well; I thought you were supposed to be rather new here?

I've read the forum for some time before I registered, but that has nothing to do with my last comment. It was just random stuff. And your obvious intention of trolling, because keynesianism is not that different from, say, neoclassical liberalism.

maybe intermoderate has a brother.

Who? Si soy un clon bien podrías empezar por preguntarme el porqué hablo tan buen castellano y asuntos por el estilo, pero evidentemente eso estaría fuera de tus límites.

It is just different enough, M. Peep.  Like the salt and pepper in a stew - it makes all the difference.

This nick is kind of cute. And I prefer salt with Popper (the thinker, not the drug).

Well, yes, you're just another right winger.  How many depressions will it take?

I'm uruguayan, I don't care so much about "american" economy.

Oh, economy is good there?

Republicans have to be just giddy with excitement for this.  They want to ruin America so their campaign donors can profit.  But don't worry jmfcst, you could be rich one day too and enjoy all those benefits!

Does it make a difference whether it is 'officially' a recession or not? What's clear is that there is something that might as well be called a slump (because it's a useful word in this context and has been used in the past) and that it's not going to get better within a year. Mass unemployment, squeezed living standards and no real growth, coupled with fears that everyone could yet fall down the next flight of stairs at some point, perhaps quite soon. Bad times, you know?

So, it's okay for a country to fall into recession, countless people to lose their livelihoods, the debt to soar, just as long as it all gets that uber-socialisty, big spending liberal guy in the White House out of office and replaced with one of the even more un-inspiring Republican candidates?

Typical.

Wow.  Another thread.  Republicans can't contain their delight.  They are spamming the forum.  I guess the Tea Party worked hard for this so they should celebrate.  I on the other hand love America and I'm concerned.

You are trying, from a liberal arts perspective, to describe the difference between an inventory-based recession or a cyclical recession and a credit-based or debt-based recession, the former being the more common/familiar type and the latter being what we've been in since 2008 (well, technically 2007, but whatever).

Personally, I prefer we go back to the old terms "panics" and "depressions", though panics historically referred to market crashes, and depressions usually referred to real recessions, or whatever, because they more accurately describe actual conditions.  Though this is really wishful thinking, since the NBER changed all that in the 1930s, and I really have to assume we won't return to the former.

ITT: a big lack of logic.

Hold your horses, um...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15217784

The problem is still Europe, not America. If they go into a recession, the US will follow. The world economy is just too interlinked. And China's growth rate should be kept an eye on as well.

you need to learn the difference between forward looking indicators and laggin indicators.  the UE is a lagging indicator, which means even if the US economy pulls out of this new recession and start raging growth by June 2012...the UE won't start dropping again until a couple of months after the resumption of growth which would be too close to the election for the public to notice.

48k out of 103k was just the Verizon strike ending.

That's true, but some expected us to actually lose jobs instead.  Not that I think the economy is good or anything.  :P