Talk Elections

"Barack Obama has no chance of winning Nebraska next year.  His approval rating in the state is 35% with 61% of voters disapproving of him.

The action in Nebraska is at the Congressional District level though and there Obama has some hope- although not necessarily where you might expect it.After he won the 2nd Congressional District's electoral vote in 2008 Republican redistricters moved more Democratic friendly territory from that district into the 1st and shifted more GOP friendly territory from the 1st into the 2nd.

That move is having the impact Republicans hoped it would in the 2nd district- Romney leads Obama 50-42 there and Perry has a 48-44 advantage as well.  But in a finding that can certainly go into the 'unintended consequences' file Obama is now up 45-44 on Romney in the new 1st District and leads Perry by a 47-41 margin. Now it's important to note that the margin of error for the numbers in each of these individual Congressional districts is pretty high, but still, Obama would be trailing Romney in both the 1st and 2nd districts under the old lines."

Statewide:

38-51 Obama vs. Romney
41-48 Obama vs. Perry
37-47 Obama vs. Paul
41-48 Obama vs. Gingrich
41-49 Obama vs. Bachmann

1st CD:

45-44 Obama vs. Romney
47-41 Obama vs. Perry
43-39 Obama vs. Paul
48-40 Obama vs. Gingrich
47-42 Obama vs. Bachmann

2nd CD:

42-50 Obama vs. Romney
44-48 Obama vs. Perry
42-47 Obama vs. Paul
45-48 Obama vs. Gingrich
45-50 Obama vs. Bachmann

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_1006.pdf (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_1006.pdf)

Why is Obama doing better in the 1st than in the 2nd?  Did Nebraska renumber or something?

Those numbers look rather good for Nebraska.

You certainly can't call it a potential landslide if one of Nebraska's districts are in play.

I'm pretty sure nobody expects the Republican candidate to win in a landslide next year. And if anyone does, they're kidding themselves.

Tell that to jmfcst.

*facepalm*

Nebraska is crazy

McCain beat Obama by 15%, so the statewide numbers are phenomenal for Obama.

Omaha is growing, helping Obama, and making it more like Texas (i.e., it will be close in polling, but all undecided voters will break for the GOP).

He probably won't win the CD this time around against Romney.

Do you think there's a chance that Nebraska could be a blue state someday?

In a Romney vs. Schweitzer scenario it could certainly flip.  To hold it, the Democrats would have to shift to a more populist approach.

From what I understand, the west (plains and mountain west) are tolerant of economic leftism.  It just needs to be wrapped in social conservatism (gun rights, etc.) to become palpable.

It already is. ;)

Is there any news on whether or not the state is moving ahead in returning to a winner take all electoral vote allocation?  I haven't read anything recently on the topic

Redistricting. Romney would have a lead in both districts of eastern Nebraska  without redistricting, but the state legislature apparently loaded some very D-leaning areas into NE-01 and some very R-leaning areas into NE-02.

NE-03 remains the surest vote for any Republican, and NE-02 is still competitive.

The Republican nominee will be in deep trouble if either district of eastern Nebraska is competitive for the President.

anyone with historical knowledge of POTUS reelection bids knows that in a new recession, Obama's numbers are going to fall another 10-15 points over the next 13 months...you can take it to the bank

Yes, yes, we know how badly you want this economy to suffer so you can get Cain elected.  There's no need to reiterate that.

Hmm, I had to think which candidate I should enter to the database ... :P

They didn't poll Obama vs. Cain, who is leading the primary in the state.

Gingrich was second in the primary, but currently he has no chance to win the nomination.

So I went with Romney - who was third in the primary poll.

Republicans lose the next Presidential election and their House majority if they are seen at all culpable in any Double-Dip. All that the GOP offers is permanent suffering of the masses on behalf of people who think that the working man is less than fully human. Trickle-down economics goes out of style when it is shown to be a catastrophic failure. The GOP dream is of people being in hock to loan sharks who exploit every normal desire and every predictable need. 

And we gained 100,000 jobs last month. Not phenomenal, but not too shabby either.

half of which was returning strikers that went on strike last month....so the average over the last two months is 50k/month.  I wish Obama well on the speaking circuit.

Which is true, except that it kills the 0 jobs last month meme.

And not moving the market as much as I expected.  :(

July and August have been revised upward as well

http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/07/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?cnn=yes&hpt=hp_t2

Any idea what happened in May to f**k things up?

If they count as jobs lost when they go on strike then they have to count as jobs gained when they return. So if this month isn't as good as reported then previous months weren't as bad as reported. Can't have it both ways.

which is why I said an average of 50k over the last two months and not an average of 25k, Einstein.

ah...I missed the correction to the August numbers when I calculated the average....my bad

RAHN PAHL HURR DURR

Obama can't win any of the three CDs in this state.  He'll lose the state by 20% to most any Republican.  Nelson is on the ropes as well, but we all knew that.

That is not in the Bible either, so of course it's errant.

Eastern Nebraska (NE-01 and NE-02) is politically more like Iowa than like Wyoming. Central and western Nebraska (NE-03) is politically more like Wyoming than like Iowa. President Obama is going to lose NE-03 by roughly an 80-20 margin unless the Republicans nominate  Charles Manson. But NE-01 and NE-02 are apparently competitive. Together they might be a 50-50 split under the best of reasonable circumstances.  But average two 50-50 splits with one 80-20 split and you get a 60-40 split of the state at large. That is a 20% margin, which is more than by which President Obama lost the state in 2008.

Nebraska is not politically homogeneous. In 2008 (with a different set of districts), NE-01 voted much like Texas, NE-02 voted much like Indiana, and NE-03 voted much like Wyoming.

You are right about Nebraska at large (and I may be exaggerating NE-03), but for the wrong reasons. The Obama campaign seems likely to drop lots of money in the Omaha TV market just to reach western Iowa. That ad coverage will reach Greater Omaha.  Ben Nelson is gaining, and if it seems that President Obama is winning, then he has a clear record that says that he will not be a rubberstamp for the President. 

For those that are curious....

3rd CD:

25-61 Obama vs. Romney
30-56 Obama vs. Perry
26-57 Obama vs. Paul
30-59 Obama vs. Gingrich
31-56 Obama vs. Bachmann

and approval...

24-71 approve/disapprove