Talk Elections

Totally unscientific and just for fun.

LaFollette 1924 vs. Wallace 1968. Some nice North-South division until you get to New England, where they both did terribly which gives us some funny results, like RI. And yes, Minnesota may only win "most LaFollette" because Humphrey drained votes from Wallace.

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Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984. The two 49 state GOP landslides versus each other. :) Not a single >60% state, though D.C. is >60% Nixon because a certain ethnic group wasn't very fond of Ronald Reagan.

Nixon is blue. Reagan is green.

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Clinton 1992 vs. Humphrey 1968. Two Democrats who got ~43% against each other. Vermont's rapid trend is showing itself. Otherwise Clintopia would be contiguous!

Clinton is red.

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Anderson 1980 vs. Perot 1996. Actually quite interesting.

Anderson is yellow.

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Roosevelt 1936 vs. Johnson 1964. Two 61% D landslides.

LBJ is red, FDR is green.

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Very nice.  :)

Here's a fun one:

Obama (2008) vs. Bush (1988)

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Looks like a pretty bland prediction for a close 2008 election, though Colorado (the closest state here), and of course New Hampshire stand out.

Also of note is that Obama manages to lose West Virginia, a Dukakis state.

With the 2008 Electoral College, this happens to be a 269-269 tie as shown...though the outcome of Maine CD2 is in doubt.  By my calculations, Bush wins Maine CD2 (and the election) by around 80 votes, though I'm frankly just guessing as to the third party totals there in 1988.  With the 1988 Electoral College, Obama wins by 20 EV or so.

Nixon (1960) v. Truman (1948)

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Picked this one because both Truman and Nixon got 49.55% of the popular vote.

Parts of the Deep South are understandably wonky due to Thurmond, but even so this is one crazy map...and despite the closeness of the PV Nixon walks away with this one.

Wilson (1916) v. Clinton (1996)

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Wilson and Clinton were just a hundredth of a percent off in their popular vote percentages.

Despite the 80-year gap, this looks like something out of a prediction for the 2000 race, except with Wilson as the Republican.

Ironical how the 1988 winner would win with the 2008 College and vice-versa. ;)

I'd love to see Mondale vs. McGovern.

McGovern (blue) vs. Mondale (red)

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Mondale landslide

Bush '92 vs. McGovern

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Remember, McGovern did get a (slightly) larger percentage of the popular vote in '72 than Bush did in '92.  McGovern wins in a squeaker.

I'd like to see Bush 04 versus Carter 76, please.

It would be nice to use the electoral map that we have now in every election, regardless of the candidates. By that, I mean that we should use Alaska, Hawaii, and our current EV count every time. I'd love to see how people like LaFollette or FDR do in Alaska, or how Andrew Jackson or Abraham Lincoln do with the map we have right now.

Kennedy 1960 vs. Clinton 1996


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Kennedy- Green 
Clinton- Yellow

Gore 2000 vs. Kerry 2004

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Gore- Blue
Kerry- Green

How does Clinton win Massachusetts?

Clinton got 61.47% in 1996 and Kennedy got 60.22% in 1960. Isn't that how this works?

Remember how Ross Perrot ran in '92? ;)

McGovern vs. Goldwater

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298-240 McGovern (in 1972 numbers), despite losing the popular vote.

Al Smith vs. Hoover '32

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321-210 Smith (in 1932 numbers).

By Nichlemn’s request, Bush ‘04 vs. Carter ‘76

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Bush trades Georgia and Arkansas for Michigan. 281-257 Bush (in 2004 numbers).

Kennedy 1960 vs. Carter 1976

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Carter-Blue
Kennedy-Green

Carter wins 269-268 using 1960 numbers.

Gore (2000) vs. Ford (1976)

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300-238 Gore (using 2000 numbers). Wisconsin gets the special pink shade for being too close to call. In the end, it goes to Gore by about seven-thousandths of a percentage point.

Obama Primary Vs. Obama General

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Wilson (1912) vs Roosevelt (1936)?

Bill 1996 Vs. Hillary 2008. Within 1% of eachother, in terms of the info on the Atlas, so why not?

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Senator Clinton - 48.26% (286 EVs)
President Clinton - 49.23% (252 EVs)

Roosevelt wins every state since he got about 60% and Wilson got 42%.

Alfred Landon vs Barry Goldwater?

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Goldwater-Blue
Landon-Green

Taft '12 vs. John Davis vs. Robert LaFollette

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330-122-79 Davis-Taft-LaFollette, using 1924 numbers. LaFollette mostly won states that otherwise would have gone to Taft.

1968/1992

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Former Vice President Nixon - 43.42% (309 EVs)
Governor Bill Clinton - 43.01% (229 EVs)

John Anderson vs. Eugene Debs '12

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Due to the large gap between the elections, I decided to split the difference and use the 1944 numbers. In a nailbiter, Debs wins 269-262. Will recalculate using 1912 and 1980 numbers.

EDIT: In 1912, Anderson wins 267-264. In 1980, Debs wins 277-251 (disregarding Alaska, Hawaii, and DC).

EDIT AGAIN: I suppose I should mention that Debs is yellow and Anderson is green.

How does Kerry win IA and NM?

Mondale '84 vs. Dole '96 vs. Smith '28

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Thrown to the house in whatever EC, of course.



And now one not in the standard spirit of these posts, but mildly entertaining nonetheless:

A straight vote-to-vote matchup of Buchanan '56 vs. Nader '00:

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Nader wins a pretty convincing PV victory (54-46), but since fully a fifth of his future-voters are in EV-worthless California, he is demolished 193-103 in the 1856 EC.

Those dirty Oklahoma commies.

Because he received a higher percentage of the vote than Gore. These maps are comparing percentage of the vote, not percentage margin of victory or defeat.

Fun one: LaFollette 1924 (Red) vs. Teddy Roosevelt 1912 (Blue) vs. George Wallace 1968 (Green) vs. Ross Perot 1992 (Yellow)

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TR wins under the current EV alignment 276-122-89-51 (TR-GW-RP-RL).

Michael Dukakis vs. his former lieutenant governor John Kerry:

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Dukakis = blue
Kerry = red

378/160 Kerry in 2004 EC numbers.

Harding 1920 vs. Johnson 1964

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Johnson-Red
Harding- Blue

LBJ wins 306-225 using 1920 numbers.

How about Obama vs. Ike '52?

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Never mind, I just figured out how to do maps. Here's Wilson '12 vs. Mondale. Mondale wins the PV, but Wilson wins by a comfortable margin based on 1912 numbers:

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What's the green for?

Obama vs. FDR '44 (FDR wins PV in all 4 of these):

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'40:

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'36:

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And '32:

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Obama wins in 1944 and 1940.

write-in? lol

That's not how it works, dear boy.

Anyway, here's a McGovern v. Goldwater map. McGovern wins, but Goldwater wins the PV due to massive margins in the South.

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For what it's worth, Obama wins AL and MS. Ike wins AR and LA

Also, Obama wins GA.

FDR '36 vs Reagan '84?

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FDR 360-171 using 1936 numbers.

Harrison (1840) Vs. Pierce (1852)

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Benjamin Harrison (Whig) 171 Electoral Votes
Franklin Pierce (Democratic) 123 Electoral Votes
With 1840 numbers.

Here's an interesting one:

Lincoln (1860) vs. Wilson (1912)

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In 1860 numbers
Abraham Lincoln (Republican) 179 Electoral Votes
Woodrow Wilson (Democratic) 124 Electoral Votes


Sometime later I might do this in 1912 numbers.

Roosevelt 1932 vs Roosevelt 1936

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Not a close race. But interesting. 1936 is Red.

1936-402
1932- 129

Hoover (1928) vs. Johnson (1964)?

I'll admit this map makes no sense:

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LBJ 293-238 in 1928 numbers

Lincoln (1860) vs Kennedy?

Lincoln v. Kennedy:

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84 vs 08

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And LBJ vs. Nixon '72:

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Finally, Truman vs. Clinton '96:

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Truman (red) wins in a squeaker.

Carter 1976 vs. Clinton 1996

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Carter (red) wins 303-235 using today's numbers.

Kennedy (red) vs. Carter (green):

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Jimmy wins by a single electoral vote in 1960.

Hoover (blue) vs. Reagan (green):

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Reagan wins rather comfortably in 1928 numbers.

Coolidge (blue) vs. Obama (red):

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Based on 1924, Obama wins in a squeaker.

Hold on sec... Barack Obama sweeps the Deep South?  In 1924???

This reflects Coolidge's bad performance being weaker than Obama's bad performance. Obviously, if Obama was somehow nominated in 1924 he'd lose by comical margins there.

Oh, I didn't realize these were based on actual numbers.  I figured it was all just speculative.

Yup. Basically, you take whoever got a larger percentage of the vote in the state.

If it was, I'd have moved it to the What-ifs? section. :)

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Kerry vs. Gore.  Interesting that all the Gore territory is contiguous.

Reagan 1980 vs. Bush 2004

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Reagan is green. Bush is blue. Using 1990's numbers.

Reagan-323
Bush-215

DC would go for a write-in candidate before it goes for any Republican.

Harding vs. Hoover (1928):

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Harding wins 282-249, using 1928 numbers.

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Now here's Eisenhower (1952) thrown into the mix:

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256-180-95, using 1952 numbers. Harding's just shy of a majority.

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And here's who places second in the above election:

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Dukakis (D) vs. Willkie (R)-Using 1940 Map :

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Dukakis: 386 EV's
Willkie: 145 EV's

I like the idea of three (or more) candidate races. I think an interesting twist would be a landslide candidate versus two or more candidates who won smaller victories (or losses), to see how much it takes for a landslide candidate to be denied an EC majority.

Mondale vs. Dewey (1948) with 1948 Map:

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Dewey=368
Mondale=163

The Battle of the Progressives: Roosevelt VS. LaFollete

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Roosevelt:470 EV's, 27.40%
Lafollette: 61 EV's, 16.61%

Roosevelt wins with no major challenge

This is a great thread.

^^^^

Kerry vs. Dole

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Kerry-366
Dole 172


Truman vs. Ford (This is one I would have loved to have seen, even though this is a fantasy):

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Ford-304
Truman-227

Anderson 1980 vs. Wallace 1968 with 2008 Electoral Votes

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George Wallace - 358 EV's
John Anderson - 180 EV's
Note: Neraska goes to Wallace but the claculator didn't give me the option to make Nebraska yellow

Wallace 1948 vs. Nader 2000

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Ralph Nader - 377 EV's
Henry Wallace - 161 EV's

Teddy Roosevelt 1904 vs Franklin Roosevelt 1936 vs Ronald Reagan 1984 with 2008 EV's

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Franklin Roosevelt - 298 EV's
Teddy Roosevelt - 143 EV's
Ronald Reagan - 97 EV's

Teddy Roosevelt 1904 vs Taft 1908 vs Wilson 1916

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Teddy Roosevelt - 274 EV's
Woodrow Wilson - 216 EV's
William Howard Taft - 38 EV's
Unpledged Electors - 10 EV's

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Edwards vs Bush 2004

How is that possible ? Certainly FDR got a higher % than Teddy in most of the States you colored in green.

I don't think people quite understand the purpose of this exercise.

Here's an interesting one--Gore vs. Clinton '96:

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Clinton (red) wins 320-218.

When seeing this map you can't not ask yourself : "what's the matter with Kansas ?" ;)

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McCain vs. Dukakis

Exact tie 269-269 with '08 numbers.

He broke 50% in WI as well.

Just checked my numbers and Teddy (1904) got a higher percentage than FDR (1936) got in all the states coloured green.

George HW Bush (1988) vs. George W Bush (2000) using 2008 EV's

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George HW Bush - 448 EV's
George W Bush - 90 EV's

Samuel Tilden (1876) vs Grover Cleveland (1888) vs Al Gore (2000)

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Al Gore - 296 EV's
Samuel Tilden - 178 EV's
Grover Cleveland - 64 EV's

John F Kennedy 1960 vs George W Bush 2000 using 2008 EV's


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John F Kennedy - 271 EV's
George W Bush - 267 EV's

Dukakis demolishes Clinton '92 based on 1992 EC votes.

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This looks like a standard pre-CRA Republican landslide, but NJ and NH are significant outliers.

George Wallace (1968) vs. Robert La Follette (1924) vs Ross Perot (1992) using 2008 EV's

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Ross Perot - 259 EV's
Robert La Follette - 142 EV's
George Wallace - 137 EV's

That's a cute map. Vaguely reminds of this one...

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Ross Perot - 273 EV
George Wallace - 140 EV
Robert La Folette - 122 EV
John Anderson - 3 EV

I can see it.

Southerner A : "So our choice for President is between this Yankee Republican and some negro who claims to have traveled back in time 84 years and calls himself a Democrat"
Southerner B : "Are you kidding me?"
Southerner A : "It's true"
Southerner B : "No way!"
Southerner A: "Yes. I guess we have to vote for the Yankee Republican"
Southerner B: "Damn it"
Southerner A: "I know, this is awful"
Southerner B: "I still can't believe it"
Southerner A: "I know, it's pretty absurd"
Southerner B: "I could believe the part of about time travel, but a negro Democrat running for President?"
Southerner A: "Yeah, that's ridiculous"

It's amazing how much some of these resemble recent elections. I can't help but wonder if we've already seen the 2016 and 2020 maps somewhere in this thread.

For the states that were in the Union at the time, it's pretty close to 1864.  Or it could be  from the 1880s if Republicans somehow got control of Texas.

I know numbers are still coming in. But Nothing is so close that it could change.

Bush 2000 V. Romney

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Bush 334
Romney 204

Obama 2012 vs Bush 2004 is a narrow Bush win:

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Kerry vs. Romney is a 290-248 Kerry win:

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2008 McCain vs. 2008 Primary Clinton vs. 2008 Primary Obama

Clinton: 245
Obama: 183
McCain: 110

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2008 McCain vs. 2008 Primary Clinton

McCain: 270
Clinton: 268

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Tipper Gore most likely.  Kansas seems like the kind of place that would have approved of her fight against explicit lyrics.

Since we've been making the comparison for years...

Dewey 1948 vs. Romney 2012

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Dewey 290
Romney 241

Using 1940 numbers

Even more likely: the fact that Clinton's opponent was a Kansan.

Mitt Romney vs. William Jennings Bryan (1896):

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That's 226-221 Romney using 1896 numbers, and a win for Bryan using later numbers.

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Same year, different race: Barack Obama vs. Bob Casey. Guess who has what color. :P

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Along the same lines, Obama vs. Brown in Ohio. Adams County was tied.

This may have more to do with the South having lower Perot support, than with being pro-Clinton. IIRC, Perot voters went 70-30 Bush in 1988, so Clinton's raw numbers were lower in states where Perot did well, even if the majority of Perot's voters would have voted GOP.

Here is Perot's 1992 map vs. his national average (Green = above; Red = below):

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Snowstalker, such state maps are great, keep them coming.

A quicky: Obama vs. Menendez.

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Again, Obama is green. The results here suggest that while Obama performed better with affluent whites (other than Monmouth, his counties were mountainous NY exurbs), Menendez certainly did better with Latinos and probably did better with middle/working-class whites.

Different parties this time; Romney vs. Manchin. It really looks like a typical 50/50 race in WV (barring Clay & Nicholas Counties). Some of Obama's worst counties, like Mingo, were also among Manchin's best, which just goes to show how much both local issues (coal) and personal traits of candidates (race) can impact results.

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So Obama beat Brown in most of inner and western Ohio? Surprising.

Looks almost exactly what a slightly smaller Obama victory would have looked like.

NW Ohio is a major auto manufacturing area. Most of the rest can be explained by a random independent that got over 4% in the Ohio Senate race. The biggest Obama/Brown gaps were along the WV border, for obvious reasons (even though for some reason Obama did better in Ohio coal country than in WV/PA/VA/KY/TN).

Dewey and Romney were both Republicans.  Do you mean a GOP nomination contest?

I think he's saying that this map could have been a Romney/Obama map if Romney had done better.

1980 Reagan Vs 1932 Roosevelt

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Good maps. Also noteworthy that Carper, Manchin, McCaskill, Donnelly, Tester, Heitkamp, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Sanders, Brown (MA), McMahon, Lingle, and Barrasso ran ahead of their major party candidate everywhere. Whitehouse did too, though in 2 of the 5 RI counties (Kent and Washington), his opponent did too.

Clinton - 1996 vs. Obama 2012:

Obama - Red
Clinton - Blue

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This looks pretty close to a Democratic landslide, with the massive outlier of MA. It's quite amazing how well Clinton did in MA in 1996.

3-way tie in 1980:

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Carter - 254
Reagan - 155
Anderson - 129

I presume that's Anderson's actual vote versus the margin of the real victor.

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Dewey 1944 (green) beats Dewey 1948 (blue) 289-242 based on 1940's numbers.

That's the % vote, not margin, of the supposed victor in each case.

If you are using % vote for all three, then you need to take that map to the what-if boards.  This thread is about using the real results from actual candidates who happened to have run in different years and see who would have won if those results had been in the same year. Carter 1980 v. Reagan 1980 v. Anderson 1980 would just be the 1980 map.

OK, though some of the maps on this thread do involve same year.

1980 Reagan vs. Obama 2012

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Obama 275
Reagan 263

Using 1990's numbers. Lucky for Obama that Jimmy Carter was from Georgia. :)

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FDR time travels from 1936 to beat Nixon '72 284-254.

Barring Georgia, this is a couple of hundred votes in NM away from being the exact 2000 map.

Nixon 1960 vs. Ford 1976 vs. Gore 2000


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Gore- 230
Nixon- 226
Ford- 82

Using 1970's numbers.

The disappearance of radical traditions in the west and midwest is because socialism and even pro-social reform is now associated with government, especially big, tyrannical government, even elitist instead of an anti-elitist, anti-government protest movement. Media and big money learned and did their work it seems. These traditions made unions and the middle place strong in the first place and they have to come back if this country is to be saved.

Could someone do:

 Hayes (1876) vs Benjamin Harrison (1888) vs Bush (2000)

 Hoover (1932) vs Carter (1980)

 Carter (1976) vs Obama (2012) [It's foregone that the South is completely inverted, but the rest would be interesting here]

Eisenhower (1952) vs Clinton (1992)

Kennedy (1960) vs Humphrey (1968)

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Using 1932 numbers Hoover carries out a narrow victory.

Hoover: 275 EVs
Carter: 256 EVs

Looking into this made me realize that despite how badly Carter got crushed in the 1980 election, a number of southern states were pretty close.  A few points in his direction and he would have lost a little less painfully.

Carter 1976 vs. Obama 2012

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Obama (Red) wins 318-220 using 1990's numbers.

Ike '52 Vs. Bill '92 (1952 #'s:)

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Ike/Dick-484 Ev's
Bill/Gore-47 Ev's


Ike dominates everywhere, Clinton does well in the deep south. In those 3 states it's averages of 40% for Clinton vs. 30% for Ike.

EC Winners Battle Royale (With 2000 #'s and Map:)

Dudbya 2000 vs. Harrison '88  vs. Hayes '76

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Bush (Blue)-211 EV'S
Hayes (Green)-202 EV's
Harrison (Red)-115 EV's


No one wins a majority. Ran this in an election night simulation, Bush dominated early but died out. Hayes came back and won the big daddy states, but Harrison was the Nader esque candidate here.




House Map:


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Hayes-309 EV's
Bush-219  EV's


With Harrison out the 2nd place candidate takes the state and Bush only manages to pick up Colorado.

Kennedy vs. HHH  (Using 1968 Map and Numbers:)

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Kennedy (Blue)-492 EV's
Humphrey (Red)-43 EV's

Close Election Runner Ups:

Gore vs. Ford


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Gore-287 EV's
Ford-251 EV's


Gore wins a close one with 2000 and '76 numbers yet oddly enough the EV totals stay the same, they do not go up or down.

Clinton 1996 (Blue) vs. Carter 1976 (Green) vs. Truman 1948 (Red)

Relative %s
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Actual %s
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2012 EVs
Truman: 197
Clinton: 192
Carter: 149

Runoff:
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Alt:
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Truman 289
Clinton 249

Carter 1976 vs. Reagan 1980

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Reagan 317
Carter 221

Harding 1920 vs. FDR 1936 vs. LBJ 1964 vs. Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984

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FDR           263   (Red)
LBJ            108   (Light Blue)
Harding     106    (Pink)
Reagan      37     (Green)
Nixon        24     (Blue)

Using today's numbers.

Obama 2012 vs Bush 2004

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Bush 275
Obama 263


Hoover 1928 vs FDR 1932

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FDR 281
Hoover 250

One that is somewhat plausible is Kerry vs Romney. Can you imagine how quickly you'd fall asleep watching that debate?

Hoover 1928 vs. Eisenhower 1956

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Hoover (Blue) wins 268-263 using 1940's Number

Not if it is 1st debate Romney vs 1st debate Kerry

Goldwater vs. McGovern

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327-211 (1960's), 324-214 (1970's)

LBJ vs. HHH

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Red = Johnson, above swing
Green = Johnson, below swing
Blue = Humphrey

Bump

Ford 1976 vs. Clinton 2016


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Ford (Blue)  Wins 287- 251 using 1990's numbers.

Dewey 1944 vs. Trump 2016

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Dewey  289
Trump  239

Using 1970's numbers

lol this looks like a Romney 2012 victory map except KS

Carter 76 vs Trump 2016(Using 1990s numbers):

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Carter wins 325-213

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Romney 2012 (blue) versus Trump 2016 (red)
Romney 306 - Trump 232 (ironically the same as 2016, but Trump with 232 instead of Clinton)


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Bill 1996 (red) v Hillary 2016 (blue)
Bill Clinton 349 - Hillary Clinton 184

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Dewey 1944 vs Dewey 1948

Dewey 1944 Wins 283-248.

Gore 2000 vs. Clinton 2016

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Gore   300
Clinton  238

McCain 2008 vs. Trump 2016

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Trump  297
McCain  241

Could anyone do Clinton '16 vs Clinton '96? They both did similarly in the PV.

4 maps above this post :)

Ohhh I didn't see it. Thanks! :) New York surprises me a little.

It was close.   59.47 to 59.00.  One big difference is how much better Bill ran in Suffolk County.

Kerry 2004 vs. Clinton 2016

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Clinton   299
Kerry     239

Kerry got a higher % of the vote, 48.27 to 48.02.   Kerry also wins 31 states.  But Clinton wins in the EC.

Nader 2000 vs Johnson 2016
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Johnson 450
Nader 88

Reagan 84 vs Nixon 72 vs Johnson 64
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Johnson 64 289
Nixon 72 189
Reagan 84 60

Truman 1948 vs. Kennedy 1960

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Truman    276
Kennedy  255

Carter '80 vs Bush '92

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Bush/Quayle: 292 EV
Carter/Mondale: 242 EV

Tipping Point: California

Clinton 2016 vs. Trump 2020

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Trump cruises to victory. Many states are extremely close however. (ME+2k, CO+9k, NM+16k)
Trump barely misses VA with Clinton winning there by 21k, presumably because she picked Tim Kaine. Trump does have potential to overtake her though depending on how many votes are left.

Trump 2016 vs. Trump 2020



2020 is red.  Lightest shade is 0%- .5% difference.  Medium is .5- 2%  Darkest (All Red) is over 2%

2020 win 374-164

2016 Donald Trump vs 1948 Thomas Dewey

1920 James Cox vs. 2020 Donald Trump

Trump defeats Hickory

The anti-Catholicism of the Gilded era. harms Biden but he gains in some regions against McKinley.

Unlike Biden, Trump wouldn't of had a problem in 1896.

Not even The Gipper could defeat Truman. Strom Thurmond not running means he does better in the E.V. though.

Donald Trump (2020, 46.8%) - Mitt Romney (2012, 47.2%)

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Idaho, Minnesota, Illinois, North Carolina, Vermont were all decided by less than 0.5%. Under the 2012/2020 electoral count, this would be a 270-268 Trump win. Under the 2024 count, a 271-267 Romney win.


Joe Biden (2020, 51.3%) - Jimmy Carter (1976, 50.1%)

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Carter wins in 1976 with 273-265 and 2020 with 275-263. This comes down to a 0.5% difference in Pennsylvania and a 0.05% difference in Wisconsin.


Bill Clinton (1996, 49.2%) - Donald Trump (2020, 46.8%)

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Only 3 areas within a point, but it's what decides this race. A 1 point margin in Maine's 2nd, 0.5% margin in Pennsylvania and a 0.01% margin in Wisconsin. With this map, Clinton wins in 1996 (273-265) but Trump wins in 2008 (270-268), 2020 (276-262) and 2024 (279-259)

Some California maps I put together:

Richard Nixon (1972, 55.0%) - Ronald Reagan (1984, 57.5%)
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Franklin Roosevelt (1936, 67.0%) - Warren Harding (1920, 66.2%)
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Bernie Sanders (2020 primary, 36.0%) - Donald Trump (2020, 34.3%)
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Joe Biden (2020, 63.4%) - Barack Obama (2008, 60.9%)
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Michael Dukakis (1988, 47.6%) - Jimmy Carter (1976, 47.6%) - Harry Truman (1948, 47.6%)
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