Talk Elections

She's probably not going to have a chance, but she would do much better than Joe DioGuardi at least.

http://polhudson.lohudblogs.com/2011/10/07/brooks-vs-gillibrand-let-the-speculation-begin/

Lol! Its sad when an obscure upstate county executive (and I lived in her county for years- and yes it is obscure even though it contains Rochester) is considered to be a "decent challenger" for state wide office. The Best part of the article though, is when they call her a "prodigious fundraiser" citing her $335,694 in the bank... meanwhile Gillibrand has well over $5 million before the September filing deadline.   

Also just another note, the general rule of politics in NY for both parties (and eespecially the GOP) is: DON'T NOMINATE SOMEONE FROM UPSTATE (Gillibrand obviously being the exception because she was appointed and had been a senator for two years before she faced a state wide election) .

I agree that she would probably do better than DioGuardi, but that's not saying much. 

I think she will run against Kathy Hochul.

She would be a good challenger (for the republicans) against Kathy Hochul.  I don't know how much of Monroe County that her new district will include though.

Do we even know if Hochul's district will still be around? Or have legislators decided to erase Slaughter's district instead?

I haven't heard too much lately but I believe that the current plan is to keep a district for Hochul and try to make her district safer by giving her the Niagara County parts that Slaughter had.  What I guess the general consensus is that there will be an upstate Republican eliminated along with a downstate democrat.  The most likely republican to get the ax would be Burkle (she deserves it... honestly one of the dumbest people I have ever met... and I'm not saying that because I disagree with her policies... It's because I've met her and had to deal with her).  I don't know how Turner's victory has changed the redistricting plans. 

So... in answer to your question... I am fairly confident that Hochul will have a district in 2012 and probably one that is more favorable to her.  I don't know exactly what areas it would cover but my best guess is parts of Erie county.  If it doesn't include any of Monroe county I don't see a reason why Brooks would move to run against her in a district that doesn't include any of her base. If the district ends up including Monroe county it looks like Brooks would be a decent candidate for the GOP to put up against Hochul.   

Republicans have a snowball's chance in hell of winning any kind of general election in New York any time soon.

Absolutely. The state's partisan environment doesn't favor them, but their biggest problem is that the statewide party organization is a disaster.

on the local level in the NY metro it's even worse.

What's disasterous about it? I know they've had trouble with candidate recruitment in recent years, but what else?

To me it seemed that while the NY GOP was in the minority in the 1990s, it was a decent-sized minority.  But during the 2000s they went into a death spiral.

Looking at it from an outsider's perspective, there were three things that I noticed.  One was Charles Schumer unseating three-term Sen. Al D'Amato in 1998, which I think was a big loss for the NY GOP.  Second was Hillary Clinton's victory in 2000.  The Clintons relocated to NY and set up their national Democratic machine there.  Finally, George W. Bush ruined the GOP brand in the state.

puh---------leeeeeeeeeeeeeease.

2012 will have presidential turnout in NYC and this is against Gillibrand who already proved herself against a suburban GOP challenger in 2010 and is strong Upstate overall, case closed.

I would generally agree with that.  The GOP did have some strong pockets locally in the NYC suburbs even after the suburbs moved Democratic nationally.  However, that then crumbled.  The GOP showed signs of getting the local organization back together, but that has seemed to go by the wayside.  Casing point Nassau County.  While I haven't been able to be involved politically this year (due to my current work schedule), things don't exactly look good for the GOP here in November, especially considering NIFA just ripped Mangano and company a new @SShole and the Controller's report (a Republican who backs Mangano) wasn't much better.

In order for the GOP to gain back any statewide relevance they need to regain and actually sustain themselves locally first.  And while they have regained it in some areas as I mentioned, sustaining it is another story.

Anyone who thinks Gilibrand will lose is crazy.

there's a tremendous difference between could and would.
unless the 1 in a million chance the the GOP learned what they were doing wrong down state and they start to correct it asap they will never win any more state races.

The GOP should get Carl Paladino to run for the Hochul seat. Never would have lost it in the first place.

He isn't winning if he runs. Can you image the attack ads from the DNC?

Agreed.  What you have to understand about western new york politics is that we are very parochial.  We voted for PDino because he was from Buffalo and would "represent us in Albany" "unlike some suit from downstate".  The difference is he was running in a state wide race against someone from downstate, if he ran against Hochul he would be running against another upstate, wnyer so his novelty as a "local son" really has no effect.