Talk Elections

I'm surprised that there hasn't been a thread created for this yet but it does look as if this election is a done deal thanks to Enrique Pena Nieto and his celebrity status thanks to his wife being a telonovela star. Regardless of his utter lack of accomplishment during his six year government of Edomex, he is stomping his competition in the polls:

El Universal (December, 2010)
Enrique Pena Nieto (PRI) 39.4%
Santiago Creel (PAN) 14.6%
Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon (PRD) 12.6%

Enrique Pena Nieto (PRI) 40.9%
Josefina Vazquez Mota (PAN) 12.1%
Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon (PRD) 12.1%

(sorry about the old nature of the poll, I can't find anything else on the internet. I can only assume that the state of the race has largely stayed the same.)

Well PAN has definitely done a sh*ty ass job at governing recently, and PRD doesn't look like it has been able to recover from its corruption scandals from a few years ago. So basically PRI will have to screw up tremendously to blow the election. Ironic that in 2006 it looked as if the party was going to fall apart, and it's come back so strongly.

Horrible Parties, all of them.

Before we do the 2012, we should do Michoacan 2011. I will try to make up the background, etc.

Just had a great short talk with the former Ambassador to Mexico, who was telling me how Ernesto Cordero is to him the only panista to stand a chance. He doesn't appear to think either Creel or that lady stand much of a chance. Also interesting how he mentioned that Pena Nieto, while a boring centrist who won't change much, might be less confrontational on the drug issue and more likely to make some reforms to the oil sector and so forth because he'd likely have a congressional majority.

Cordero standing a chance? He is, at best, a distant third for PAN nomination in every poll imaginable, both among PANistas and the electorate in general, and he is considered a lightweight even by his own personal friends. I am yet to see anybody, not directly employed by the administration, to say he is supporting Cordero for nomination.

Cordero was viewed as an inefectual Treasury secretary - mostly, because he had to struggle to be respected even by his own direct subordinates. He is a decent guy, but very few people take him to be presidential material. His only claim to nomination is that he is very loyal to Calderon and Calderon supports him - and Calderon does have a lot of weight in the party, and knows it really well, so that shouldn't be discounted. But, if he is nominated, he will badly struggle to come even second - forget winning the election, that's simply out of the question. He is going to be a disaster for PAN down ballot.

To sum up, I will give Cordero about a 1/3 chance to get the nomination and, conditional on getting the nomination, under 1/3 chance of being among the top 2 candidates in the general.  He can't win.

BTW, which country's ambassador was that?

Pena Nieto, of course, is by far the front runner. He will be "less confrontational" on drugs - everybody will be, everybody's seen what it has done to Calderon. Not that it is going to change much - it's not like there is a drugster Politburo you can negotiate with, even if you wanted to.

As for the oil... that's interesting. I doubt he is going to have an outright majority in Congress - it's difficult to achieve in Mexico - and, even if he gets it, it will only likely be there for the first 3 years (electoral law is fairly anti-majoritarian, given the existence of 3 major parties). More importantly, big blocks of PRI legislators are controlled by governors and regional bosses, and will not be directly under Pena Nieto control. PRI does have a substantial block that's still sentimental about the oil nationalisation - it will be tough to do much even under the best of circumstances. Still, of course, any PRIista would have easier time doing this than a PANista. The question is, would he want to do it?

Well, one modification on Cordero: he will likely come second if, as may very well happen, both Lopez Obrador and Ebrard run (the former for PT, the latter for PRD).  They will split the leftist vote, so one can easily come second w/ about 25%.

Otherwise, if it is only Lopez Obrador running on the left, a big chunk of panista electorate will split off to whoever the priista is, to make sure there is no risk of Lopez winning. If it is Ebrard, he is a legitimate and experienced anti-PRI candidate, perfectly acceptable to the (non-clerical) right. In that case, Cordero will hold the "Yunque" (the Catholic ultras; not because he is one, which he is not, but because Ebrard is, probably, the most secular candidate out there - and the one w/ the most complicated personal life to boot), but will loose many of the "neoliberals" and technocrats to Ebrard. Cordero has no personal vote, and it is not clear where it may come from. He will only get those panistas and pan-leaners who find every other major candidate entirely unacceptable.

I read somewhere that the PT and Convergencia will endorse Obrador regardless who the PRD nominates, is this true? Does Obrador have any appeal to the electorate anymore? Do neo-liberals and technocrats even have much sway in Mexican politics?

Anyways I expect most of my family members to support Ebrard. They aren't catholic, are middle class and are very educated/urban. At least I hope they will support Ebrard, he's the only candidate I could get behind. :P

Yeah, PT and Convergencia (or, whatever it is called now - they've renamed) will support Lopez Obrador no matter what (unless, of course, he himself chooses not to run - which is next to impossible). Ebrard's job now is to do everything possible to make sure that Lopez Obrador implodes - without being visibly behind the implosion himself. Lopez does have significant and very loyal personal vote. It's not enough to win election, but it is enough to affect who wins it (definitely enough to make sure that Ebrard is non-competitive).

"Neoliberals and technocrats" might not be a major electorate in themselves, but they are not an insignificant chunk of chattering classes, so the impact on election wouldn't be insignificant. Of course, as a neoliberal and technocrat myself I am likely to exaggerate our importance :))) But, then, that is supposed to be Cordero's natural electorate - he is a neoliberal technocrat w/ little appeal to anyone else. And he isn't generating any excitement even among that segment of the population.

PAN has just decided they will use a closed primary (i.e. only w/ registered members and "adherents" voting) to nominate the candidate. This is, actually, relatively good for Cordero - not that he is particularly popular among the members, but Calderon knows/feels that electorate very well and this is the knowledge that he used to defeat Creel last time. Creel is not a true party man - he'd, probably, prefer an open primary any day. How will this play for Vazquez Mota - this I don't yet understand (probably, because I haven't been following too close).

On November 13th there will be the last state-level poll before next July (a bunch of state elections are held the same day as the national one). In Michoacan they will be electing the governor, the state legislature and municipal mayors.

Michoacan has been governed by PRD for 2 terms (since 2002). In fact, it is the native state of the Cardenas clan, and old Cuauhtemoc was a governor himself in the 1980s (before he left PRI). His son was the governor from 2002 to 2008.  But it also is the native state of Calderon and the president's sister is running for PAN this time. And 4 years ago, if I recall correctly, PRI has sufficiently recovered in the state to re-capture the mayoralty of the state capital (Morelia) from PAN. So, this is going to be fun.

The polls show a three-way split between the main parties, so the election is going to be unpredictable. September poll from Reforma showed PRI ahead of PRD ahead of PAN, but their poll published today shows PAN (Calderon-sis) at 37%,  PRI at 33%, PRD at 29% Still, it is all within the margin: it's a true free-for-all. Calderon seems to have a commanding lead among women, but is not polling well among men.

If PRI gets it, their inevitability next year is reinforced. If PAN captures this from PRD (especially if they also retake Morelia from PRI), they might spin this into a revival and popular endorsement of the current federal administration. PRD really has to hold this.

I'm wondering that if the PRI wins back the Presidency and the Congress, if they'll roll back democratization?

Not likely. Not easily done. Though, of course, who knows.

Election is today.

It has been very nasty. A few weeks ago the panista mayor of La Piedad was killed. Yesterday a local paper in that same town was forced to print a threatening advertisement, announcing reprisals for anyone who'd vote PAN or walk around w/ pan propaganda, etc. (they also published a disclaimer, saying that they are printing this to avoid damage to their staff).

Results later tonight.

When does the polls close in Michoacan ? 

Let me know which party has won.

I think polls has closed

BTW.  I found this

http://revistaemet.com/nota/mendoza-blanco-y-asociados-da-como-ganador-a-silvano-aureoles/5857

Which, if my spanish is correct, indicates that latest poll taken recently, has PAN 31, PRI 34, and PRD 35.  We will have the real results soon enough

All three parties have declared victory :))

When things are this close and three-way, exit polls are meaningless.

So, as is normally done in Mexico, we will have the preliminary unofficial count tonight. If it is close, it will not determine the winner though: there always are quite a few polling booths were they screw up w/ filing the protocols w/ the preliminary count.  The official count will be next weak.

So, first results. W/ something like 2 precincts reporting we have

PRI/PVEM 63.89%
PRD/PT/PC 23.61%
PAN/PANAL 9.72%

This is, of course, still profoundly meaningless.

Something like one more precinct:

PRI 52.8%
PRD 26.4%
PAN 16.8%

Nah, it is even more meaningless - the precincts so far reporting are tiny, w/ under 100 votes each. This is not serious for the moment.

Still, I can't make myself stop, however nonsensical. W/ 4 precincts reporting it is

PRI 113 votes (43.97%)
PRD 93 votes (36.19%)
PAN 46 votes (17.90%)

What is the partisan makeup of the outgoing state congress in Michoacan ?

Got the exact: PRD 14, PAN 12, PRI 10; PVEM, PT, Convergencia and Panal - 1 each.

Thanks a lot.

So for state congressional elections, Mexico has something like that that 42% rule at the federal level?

Each state has its own constitution, but they are similar. In case of Michoacan there 24 FPTP districts and 16 PR. The rules for allocating the PR are arcane and, usually, things wind up in the electoral tribunal.

Another heavily PRI (why did I want to write GOP? :)) ) precinct:

PRI 192 votes (48.48%)
PRD 146 votes (36.87%)
PAN 51 votes (12.88%)
invalid 7 votes (1.77%)

Starts accelerating

PRI 274 votes (44.55%)
PRD 171 votes (27.80%)
PAN 153 votes (24.88%)
invalid 17 votes (2.76%)

BTW, the big PAN batch came from La Piedad.

PRI 304 votes (45.17%)
PRD 184 votes (27.34%)
PAN 166 votes (24.67%)
invalid 19 votes (2.82%)

9/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 344 votes (41.85%)
PRD 264 votes (32.12%)
PAN 189 votes (22.99%)
invalid 25 votes (3.04%)

12/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 389 votes (39.98%)
PRD 331 votes (34.02%)
PAN 226 votes (23.23%)
invalid 27 votes (2.77%)

13/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 413 votes (39.48%)
PRD 356 votes (34.03%)
PAN 250 votes (23.90%)
invalid 27 votes (2.58%)

So far, for state congress PRD is ahead in 4 districts, PAN and PRI in 2 each.

14/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 478 votes (42.56%)
PRD 362 votes (32.24%)
PAN 254 votes (22.62%)
invalid 29 votes (2.58%)

Another precinct from La Piedad

15/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 553 votes (41.33%)
PRD 383 votes (28.62%)
PAN 367 votes (27.43%)
invalid 35 votes (2.62%)

18/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 637 votes (41.34%)
PRD 458 votes (29.72%)
PAN 406 votes (26.35%)
invalid 40 votes (2.60%)

20/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 717 votes (38.57%)
PRD 589 votes (31.68%)
PAN 505 votes (27.17%)
invalid 48 votes (2.58%)

21/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 729 votes (37.64%)
PRD 630 votes (32.52%)
PAN 530 votes (27.36%)
invalid 48 votes (2.48%)

22/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 752 votes (37.21%)
PRD 633 votes (31.32%)
PAN 586 votes (29.00%)
invalid 50 votes (2.47%)

Starting to get predictably tight

24/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 800 votes (36.10%)
PRD 698 votes (31.50%)
PAN 660 votes (29.78%)
invalid 58 votes (2.62%)

So far, PRD ahead in 5 legislative districts, PAN in 4, PRI in 1.

And now it is a true threeway, w/ PAN ahead of PRD:

26/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 937 votes (34.16%)
PAN 910 votes (33.18%)
PRD 826 votes (30.11%)
invalid 70 votes (2.62%)

Each of the 2 candidates over 30%!

29/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 1115 votes (35.05%)
PAN 1021 votes (32.10%)
PRD 955 votes (30.02%)
invalid 90 votes (2.83%)

30/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 1231 votes (35.68%)
PAN 1084 votes (31.42%)
PRD 1038 votes (30.09%)
invalid 97 votes (2.81%)

33/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 1436 votes (35.76%)
PAN 1264 votes (31.47%)
PRD 1208 votes (30.08%)
invalid 108 votes (2.69%)

PRD back in second

36/6074 precincts reporting

PRI 1547 votes (35.70%)
PRD 1384 votes (31.94%)
PAN 1284 votes (29.63%)
invalid 118 votes (2.72%)

First precinct screwed up. PAN back in second

37/6074 precincts reporting, 1 illegible

PRI 1660 votes (35.78%)
PAN 1447 votes (31.19%)
PRD 1410 votes (30.39%)
invalid 123 votes (2.65%)

Things are now moving fast. PRD back in second

44/6074 precincts reporting, 1 illegible

PRI 2094 votes (35.74%)
PRD 1857 votes (31.69%)
PAN 1756 votes (29.97%)
invalid 152 votes (2.59%)

52/6074 precincts reporting, 3 illegible

PRI 2787 votes (37.01%)
PRD 2362 votes (31.36%)
PAN 2200 votes (29.21%)
invalid 182 votes (2.42%)

In legislative, PRD ahead in 4, PAN and PRI in 4 each.

55/6074 precincts reporting, 4 illegible

PRI 2868 votes (36.40%)
PRD 2418 votes (30.69%)
PAN 2387 votes (30.30%)
write-ins 14 votes (0.18%)
invalid 192 votes (2.44%)

PRI is opening a bit of an advantage, still very close.
64/6074 precincts reporting, 4 illegible

PRI 3555 votes (36.97%)
PRD 2975 votes (30.94%)
PAN 2836 votes (29.50%)
write-ins 14 votes (0.15%)
invalid 235 votes (2.44%)

PAN back in second

70/6074 precincts reporting, 4 illegible

PRI 4043 votes (36.06%)
PAN 3576 votes (31.89%)
PRD 3306 votes (29.49%)
write-ins 14 votes (0.12%)
invalid 273 votes (2.43%)

again getting tighter

75/6074 precincts reporting, 4 illegible

PRI 4217 votes (35.57%)
PAN 3839 votes (32.38%)
PRD 3495 votes (29.48%)
write-ins 14 votes (0.12%)
invalid 290 votes (2.45%)

PRI is stably a bit ahead of the others.


88/6074 precincts reporting, 6 illegible

PRI 5206 votes (35.83%)
PAN 4717 votes (32.46%)
PRD 4225 votes (29.08%)
write-ins 14 votes (0.10%)
invalid 368 votes (2.53%)

97/6074 precincts reporting, 8 illegible

PRI 5958 votes (35.76%)
PAN 5248 votes (31.50%)
PRD 5023 votes (30.15%)
write-ins 15 votes (0.09%)
invalid 416 votes (2.50%)

113/6074 precincts reporting, 10 illegible

PRI 7215 votes (35.32%)
PAN 6728 votes (32.94%)
PRD 5957 votes (29.16%)
write-ins 17 votes (0.08%)
invalid 510 votes (2.50%)

PAN getting closer

122/6074 precincts reporting, 10 illegible

PRI 7961 votes (35.32%)
PAN 7555 votes (33.52%)
PRD 6437 votes (28.56%)
write-ins 17 votes (0.08%)
invalid 571 votes (2.53%)

Interestingly, there seems to still be nothing from Morelia, the state's capital.

Under 100 vote margin

140/6074 precincts reporting, 13 illegible

PRI 9166 votes (34.91%)
PAN 9100 votes (34.65%)
PRD 7305 votes (27.82%)
write-ins 17 votes (0.06%)
invalid 671 votes (2.56%)

Calderon-sis is now ahead for PAN!

148/6074 precincts reporting, 13 illegible

PAN 9782 votes (35.04%)
PRI 9669 votes (34.64%)
PRD 7728 votes (27.68%)
write-ins 17 votes (0.06%)
invalid 720 votes (2.58%)

161/6074 precincts reporting, 15 illegible

PAN 10,671 votes (35.11%)
PRI 10,473  votes (34.46%)
PRD 8,445 votes (27.79%)
write-ins 18 votes (0.06%)
invalid 784 votes (2.58%)

continues in a tie:

177/6074 precincts reporting, 16 illegible

PAN 12,315 votes (35.31%)
PRI 12,266  votes (35.17%)
PRD 9,386 votes (26.91%)
write-ins 19 votes (0.05%)
invalid 887 votes (2.54%)

192/6074 precincts reporting, 18 illegible

PAN 13,505 votes (35.38%)
PRI 13,241  votes (34.68%)
PRD 10,443 votes (27.35%)
write-ins 21 votes (0.06%)
invalid 966 votes (2.53%)

Congressional seems to be PRI 10, PAN 8, PRD 4

PRI regains the lead by the slimmest of margins

208/6074 precincts reporting, 18 illegible

PRI 14,574  votes (34.78%)
PAN 14,522 votes (34.66%)
PRD 11,626 votes (27.75%)
write-ins 27 votes (0.06%)
invalid 1,150 votes (2.74%)

4 vote margin!

215/6074 precincts reporting, 19 illegible

PRI 15,192 votes (34.85%)
PAN 15,188 votes (34.84%)
PRD 11,995 votes (27.52%)
write-ins 28 votes (0.06%)
invalid 1,191 votes (2.73%)

They are oscillating on negligible margins

227/6074 precincts reporting, 20  illegible

PRI 15,976 votes (34.75%)
PAN 15,965 votes (34.72%)
PRD 12,751 votes (27.73%)
write-ins 28 votes (0.06%)
invalid 1,257 votes (2.73%)

PAN back up

249/6074 precincts reporting, 23  illegible

PAN 18,096 votes (35.22%)
PRI 17,709 votes (34.46%)
PRD 14,122 votes (27.48%)
write-ins 32 votes (0.06%)
invalid 1,426 votes (2.78%)

270/6074 precincts reporting, 24  illegible

PAN 20,193 votes (35.44%)
PRI 19,646 votes (34.48%)
PRD 15,544 votes (27.28%)
write-ins 36 votes (0.06%)
invalid 1,561 votes (2.74%)

303/6074 precincts reporting, 28  illegible

PAN 23,334 votes (35.38%)
PRI 22,907 votes (34.73%)
PRD 17,868 votes (27.09%)
write-ins 37 votes (0.06%)
invalid 1,808 votes (2.74%)

341/6074 precincts reporting, 28  illegible

PAN 26,738 votes (35.39%)
PRI 26,610 votes (35.22%)
PRD 20,101 votes (26.61%)
write-ins 41 votes (0.05%)
invalid 2,058 votes (2.72%)

PRI is up again - by 27 votes!

363/6074 precincts reporting, 28  illegible

PRI 28,519 votes (35.39%)
PAN 28,492 votes (35.36%)
PRD 21,318 votes (26.46%)
write-ins 41 votes (0.05%)
invalid 2,211 votes (2.74%)

405/6074 precincts reporting, 30  illegible

PRI 32,608 votes (35.43%)
PAN 32,157 votes (34.94%)
PRD 24,676 votes (26.81%)
write-ins 47 votes (0.05%)
invalid 2,551 votes (2.77%)

The reporting site is getting slow.

PRI has opened a bit of a lead

506/6074 precincts reporting, 32  illegible

PRI 42,534 votes (35.49%)
PAN 41,275 votes (34.44%)
PRD 32,569 votes (27.18%)
write-ins 63 votes (0.05%)
invalid 3,393 votes (2.83%)

589/6074 precincts reporting, 36  illegible

PRI 50,730 votes (35.56%)
PAN 49,013 votes (34.36%)
PRD 38,782 votes (27.18%)
write-ins 89 votes (0.06%)
invalid 4.048 votes (2.84%)

689/6074 precincts reporting, 39  illegible

PRI 60,832 votes (35.62%)
PAN 58,006 votes (33.97%)
PRD 46,988 votes (27.51%)
write-ins 93 votes (0.05%)
invalid 4.855 votes (2.84%)

PRI lead is slowly but surely expanding

789/6074 precincts reporting, 44  illegible

PRI 71,721 votes (35.71%)
PAN 68,178 votes (33.95%)
PRD 55,216 votes (27.49%)
write-ins 118 votes (0.06%)
invalid 5,614 votes (2.8 0%)

919/6074 precincts reporting, 50  illegible

PRI 84,492 votes (35.57%)
PAN 80,150 votes (33.75%)
PRD 66,208 votes (27.88%)
write-ins 128 votes (0.06%)
invalid 6,536 votes (2.75%)

1,039/6074 precincts reporting, 51  illegible

PRI 96,762 votes (35.24%)
PAN 92,838 votes (33.81%)
PRD 77,396 votes (28.19%)
write-ins 138 votes (0.05%)
invalid 7,440 votes (2.71%)

It is, of course, still early, but if I were a priista, I'd start getting excited.

1,162/6074 precincts reporting, 54  illegible

PRI 110,025 votes (35.41%)
PAN 103,971 votes (33.46%)
PRD 88,131 votes (28.36%)
write-ins 151 votes (0.05%)
invalid 8,474 votes (2.73%)

1,270/6074 precincts reporting, 54  illegible

PRI 120,411 votes (35.17%)
PAN 114,592 votes (33.47%)
PRD 97,899 votes (28.60%)
write-ins 163 votes (0.05%)
invalid 9,275 votes (2.71%)

1,408/6074 precincts reporting, 54  illegible

PRI 134,397 votes (35.15%)
PAN 127,604 votes (33.37%)
PRD 109,733 votes (28.70%)
write-ins 186 votes (0.05%)
invalid 10,459  votes (2.74%)

1,527/6074 precincts reporting, 54  illegible

PRI 146,846 votes (35.06%)
PAN 139,675 votes (33.35%)
PRD 120,593 votes (28.79%)
write-ins 206 votes (0.05%)
invalid 11,505 votes (2.75%)

I am afraid, this is starting to look like a PRI victory (though, of course, it is still very early - but very steady).

1,822/6074 precincts reporting, 54  illegible

PRI 179,396 votes (35.20%)
PAN 169,240 votes (33.20%)
PRD 146,694 votes (28.78%)
write-ins 225 votes (0.04%)
invalid 14,143 votes (2.77%)

Though only just under 50% of the precincts have been counted, I am going to go on a limb and predict PRI pick-up from PRD. It's just too steady a count.

2,823/6074 precincts reporting, 54  illegible

PRI 287,337votes (34.93%)
PAN 270,813 votes (32.92%)
PRD 240,055 votes (29.18%)
write-ins 367 votes (0.04%)
invalid 24,072 votes (2.93%)

off to bed.

ok, one more

2,962/6074 precincts reporting, 54  illegible

PRI 301,331 votes (34.76%)
PAN 285,921 votes (32.99%)
PRD 253,777 votes (29.28%)
write-ins 379 votes (0.04%)
invalid 25,403 votes (2.93%)

It seems that at La Piedad, where the mayor, Ricardo Guzman, was gunned down a week or so ago, the PAN won with 54% of the vote.  Ricardo Guzman was a member of PAN

 

At this stage it is

PRI  35.33
PAN 32.71
PRD 28.90

At the state congress it terms of vote share it seems to be
PRI   35.33
PAN  27.79
PRD  29.56
PC      2.38

Seat breakdown for FPTP are
PRI     11
PRD      8
PAN      5

Since PC ran with PRD for the gov. race one can see that PRD ran below its vote share for the gov race and PAN ran above.  So running Calderón Hinojosa helped the PAN but I guess it is not enough as it now seems the PRI will win.

5194/6074 precincts reporting, 839  illegible (will have to be recounted), 41 to report either way

PRI 563,307 votes (35.38%)
PAN 520,328 votes (32.68%)
PRD 459,717 votes (28.88%)
write-ins 811 votes (0.04%)
invalid 47,838 votes (3.01%)

I did not know that.  My understanding was that at the federal level they put in the 42% rule in the aftermath of the 1988 election where PRI gave up being able to use the FPTP system to get a majority over a divided opposition in return for the opposition parties accepting the 1988 results.  I did not know that his understanding also led to similar changes at the state legislative election system as well.  How interesting.

For muni elections in Michoacan, I just noticed that PRI and PAN actually ran as allies in several cities. It just shows you how strong the PRD is in some of the cities that deadly historical national rivals could make alliances just to stop the PRD.

Today Ebrard and Lopez Obrador are meeting to announce who is ahead in the specially commissioned poll that is supposed to be used to determine the leftist candidate next June. Stay tuned.

rumor is, it is a draw :))

Slight advantage to Lopez Obrador. Seems like Ebrard is going to accept - he is speaking right now.

Yep, Lopez Obrador is ahead on 3 out of 5 questions asked and Ebrard is not running.

AMLO is my candidate in Mexico. He's a progresive hero and legitimate President of Mexico.

Ugh, it looks like I will be supporting whoever the PAN nominates...

If it is AMLO that will be the only candidate of the Left, based on what ag has said before, does it not look like that some PAN supporters will vote tactically PRI to block AMLO.  If so does this not further erodes the chances of a PAN victory and makes a PRI victory more certain?

What this means is that, in the end,  it is quite likely we'll all wind up holding the noses and voting PRI. Unless, of course, a panista makes a spectacular performance that makes him or her credible in the race till the end.

He is not progressive, not a hero, not legitimate and not a president of anything. This nomination, essentially, serves Mexican presidency to Enrique Peña Nieto of PRI (or anybody else whom the PRI deigns to nominate).

PAN strategic collapse could happen. It also makes it extremely unlikely that, if it happens, it is going to help anyone but PRI.

Had Ebrard been the nominee, collapsing PAN would have made this election interesting. Though PRI is the strongest of the three main parties, as last year’s elections have shown, when PAN and PRD are united in keeping it out of power they, usually, can. The trick is to unite them. And here Ebrard could have made it, but Lopez can’t.

A lot panista voters could have voted Ebrard - he is a “nice guy from a good family”, who has been a surprisingly good and efficient mayor. Overall, he is a sort of a leftist for whom a "civilized" rightist could vote. Of course, the Catholic right hates him - he has made a point of being anti-clerical, sticking it to the cardinal (more so than, say, Lopez Obrador himself).  Also he is twice divorced, and in a public relationship with the ex-ambassador of Honduras  -  the high morality crowd wouldn’t like him either. But to secular, “technocratic” and “neoliberal” right-wingers, he presents a reasonably friendly face.  Yes, the latest PAN administration has screwed up, no we don’t want PRI back to power so soon (if ever – they had been screwing the country for decades) so Ebrard could have been just the ticket. In fact, he is also reasonably acceptable to a fair share of priista voters – like Lopez, he comes from the Grand Old Party, but, unlike Lopez , he hasn’t gone out of his way to offend those who stayed.

Lopez is not getting ANY of the PAN vote. He has no particular appeal to the clericals, but the “modern right” is simply scared of him. Not because of his leftism – he is substantially to the right of, say, Cardenas, and Cardenas does not cause a similar reaction. It is his personality: aggressive, in your face, with messianic pretentions and a fair dosage of militant nationalism to boot.  His refusal to accept the last election result has cost him dearly among the moderates: in Mexico City a lot of people still hate his guts for that camp on Reforma (try talking to cab drivers about him – he cost them a fair share of livelihood back then). He is that sort of a bombastic, archaic and traditionalist Latin American national socialist that makes a lot of people shudder.

In order to win he has to get the voters off PRI directly: that party still has some of the traditional national-socialist electorate that he could appeal to. But with PRI riding high, why would anyone who hasn’t left over the last 25 years leave now?

And, of course, if it starts looking like Lopez has a chance, panistas are gowing to fly screaming towards Pena Nieto, or whoever is the PRI candidate: it’s an evil, but it’s a lesser evil.

My conjecture is, Ebrard folded up so readily because he figures out this time the left has no chance anyway. They just lost Michoacan (came third). Come next year, they are only going to be in power in DF, Oaxaca (elected w/ PAN help) and Chiapas. PAN has a bit more: Baja California, Baja California Sur (recent pick-up from PRD), Sonora, Jalisco, Guanajuato, Puebla and Sinaloa (the last two elected w/ PRD help). Unless I am mistaken, everything else will now be governed by PRI.  Pena Nieto is ahead in all polls, even in DF. In fact, in the capital PRI’s Paredes seems is ahead in the polls for the city mayoralty (elections to be held on the same day as presidential).  It’s not a good starting point – and he figured out, if he gracefully yields this time, he is going to be ahead in his claim for the 2018 nomination, which might be a lot more fruitful. Perhaps, he is right. But this is going to be a dispiriting race now.

Senator Manlio Fabio Beltrones yesterday announced that he would not seek to be the PRI presidential candidate in next year's election.  Which means that Pena Nieto, now is unopposed in PRI .  The other main opposition Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) last week chose defeated 2006 candidate, AMLO, as its nominee, meaning that the ruling PAN is the only major party yet to select its candidate. 

From a game theory point of view Nieto should run a center right 1990s PRI type campaign (like de la Madrid or Salinas) rather than a leftist populist 1970s PRI campaign.  If he runs to the right that will most likely mean that AMLO will gain space on the center left making him the main challanger to Nieto.  Once that happens there will be tactical voting by PAN voters to block AMLO given the bitter memories of 2006.  If Nieto ran a center left campaign that will squeeze the political space of AMLO and give an opening to whoever is the PAN candidate.  PRD voters in this case will not necessary vote for Nieto to block PAN.  The PRD would rather PAN wins again because PRI losing for the third time might split the party and cause a realigment on the left to the benifit of PRD.  Given the lay of the political land, I suspect Nieto would run a technicratic market oriented campaign.

Chances are, there will be a lot of PAN strategic voting for PN in any case. AMLO is too much of a hated scare character. Of course, by the same logic AMLO should do all he can to present himself as not scary to panistas: in order not so much that they vote for him (not likely), but that they don't panic and stay w/ their own candidate: AMLO can get 35% of the vote, it is hard for him to go much above 40%, so his task is to keep PN down. He's, actually, been trying, calling about "love", "values" and being, essentially a man of the Faith.

Meanwhile, of course, PAN is the only one still w/out a candidate. Which also means that, unless the other parties nominate "fake" primary candidates (as AMLO has suggested they might), they'll be the only one who are allowed to campaign for the moment (and who'll get funding for these purposes): legally, only "pre-campaigns" (i.e., primary campaigns) are allowed for the moment. Cordero has just said he is not bowing out of the race, and neither do, for the moment, Vazquez Mota (ahead in the polls) or Creel.

The latest poll from El Universal has shown PN far ahead, w/ VM second and AMLO third.

PAN Primary was today (well, yesterday already). Final results are still outstanding, but Josefina Vazquez Mota has defeated both Ernesto Cordero (the favorite of President Calderon) and Santiago Creel. Both have conceded, so Vázquez Mota becomes the first female major party nominee for presidency in Mexican history.

As neither PRI, nor PRD have had competitive primaries (with Manlio Fabio Beltrones and Marcelo Ebrard conceding before any such vote could be held), the candidates are:

PRI/PVEM/PANAL (the latter still subject to last minute renegotiations) Enrique Peña Nieto
PAN Josefina Vázquez Mota
PRD/PT/MC (the latter is Movimento Ciudadano, ex-Convergencia) Andrés Manuel López Obrador

It would be great if Mexico elected its first female president this year, but PAN is probably too unpopular to give her much of chance.

How do you think she will fare?

It's VERY uphill for her. Peña Nieto is far ahead, and even though his campaign is desultory (and, frankly, outright lazy) and scandals have been simmering, he is still and odds-on favorite. López Obrador is still behind in the polls, but he both has very dedicated support and great political talents. So far, I would have to acknowledge that his campaign has been really well-run and he is working hard for it. Given the funk PAN is in, JVM isn't very well positioned. Add to this her personal animosity w/ "The Teacher": the Union will be doing everything it can to screw her. Tough.

On the other hand, in a somewhat old news missed on this forum, the electoral tribunal has annulled the PRI victory mayoral elections in the Michoacan capital of Morelia and ordered the new polls. That election was extremely close, so the tribunal decided to take into account some fairly trivial violations of the law. The margin in the gobernatorial election was larger and the PRI victory there was sustained.

THANK YOU BASED GOD!

Who are the 'anti-clerical' candidates?

Anyone who's not PAN, unless things have changed greatly.

There are no really anti-clerical candidates as such. I guess, Ebrard would have been one. Lopez Obrador has been making a lot of show of being a Catholic recently. Though, of course, it's only PANistas who are definitely pro-Church.

This Mitofsky poll movement is pretty negligible, mostlyll within the margin of error (except, perhaps for the difference between the two leaders, which is just outside of it). Just to report it fully

EPN (PRI) 40.4%
JVM (PAN) 24%
AMLO (PRD) 17.7%

Peña Nieto is still the definite favorite.

No such thing as "anti-clerical" candidates. Candidates with anti-pro-clerical rhetoric, aye.

PRI and PANAL failed to agree on a coalition, so Madam Teacher has nominated her own candidate: one Gabriel Quadri, an environmentalist engineer, who is politically unknown, but gives an impression of being more rightist than leftist in other dimensions - though, I haven't yet figured out what he is. Pre-campaigns are over, so the final candidate list seems to be:

PRI/PVEM Enrique Peña Nieto
PAN Josefina Vázquez Mota
PRD/PT/MC (the latter is Movimento Ciudadano, ex-Convergencia) Andrés Manuel López Obrador
PANAL Gabriel Quadri de la Torre

Yeah, having looked at Quadri's published program, he will play out as a rightist in Mexico: he is for letting private capital into Pemex (with Petrobras being the model) and opening of the energy sector to private investment. This makes him a rightist in Mexico.

Overall, he will be the "liberal" candidate in the election - in a way, taking over also the space of the defunct Social-Democratic Alternative from the last election. Environment, environment, environment, promote abortion rights and same-sex couple rights, "discuss" drug legalizatoin, etc., etc. But all of that does not make him a "leftist" in the Mexican context. Given his stance on energy, he is a rightist.

El Universal poll (a few days back, before PANAL nominated Quadri). Among those who name a preferred candidate it is:

Peña Nieto (PRI) 48%
Vazgez Mota (PAN) 32%
Lopez Obrador (PRD) 20%

Looks like Mexican electorate is about to give PAN a serious licking.

Today's nationwide presidential election poll in the Milenio (ignoring the undecideds and renormalziing) gives

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 52%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 21%
Quadri (PANAL) 2%

In Reforma there is a poll from Mexico City (also, ignoring the undecideds)

For mayor

Mancera (PRD/PT/MC) 55%
Paredes (PRI/PVEM) 30%
Miranda (PAN) 11%
Guerra (PANAL) 2%

Interestingly, the last three candidates are all women - but the lone guy will win :))

For president (this is only within the city limits, not even the metro area):

Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 45%
Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 35%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 18%
Quadri (PANAL) 2%

Vazquez Mota has had a horrid few weeks since securing nomination. Campaign is really badly run, she herself seems on the verge of a physical collapse. They just had a huge reshuffle - bringing in the Calderonistas, who had previuosly supported Cordero. Still, I am afraid, once she drops belo Lopez Obrador (increasingly likely), she'll collapse.

Mexico is about to elect a male Palin by a landslide. Eek:

How is he a male Palin? Plus isn't he left-wing?

When a frontrunning presidential candidate can't name a single book they've read and manipulated crime stats to make it look like they tamed crime in their state... forgive me for having zero confidence in said candidate.

()

Why is Obrador running so far behind? I had always assumed that he would come back to finally win the darn thing.

He lost a lot of popularity because of his reaction to the last election: he was the sourest of losers, and that was a real turn off to the independents, who got scared outright. He is hated by much of the leadership of the biggest party that formally supports him (hence, he is behind the party mayoral candidate in the capital) - they only nominated him because he would have run anyway on minor parties' lines. He hasn't been in office for over 6 years now - the city is no longer in his pocket.  And, probably most importantly, last time he was supported by a big chunk of PRI electorate that hated the party's candidate (Madrazo) and thought he had no chance anyway. This time PRI is united and strong and focused on winning. Lopez Obrador would have to be cannibalizing PAN vote - but he (unlike, say, Ebrard) has zero appeal to PANistas, who'd rather go for PRI, if their own candidate is not viable. Mind it, even last time he only got around 35% of the vote - that was almost enough, but wouldn't be enough this time. His ceiling is, probably, under 40% in any case.

Pena Nieto is an empty suit, sure - and fairly corrupt, to top it. Unlike Palin, he is not very ideological, though - that's too complicated for him. But he is very single-minded about winning this one: he's been willing to sacrifice stuff on big scale. Hopefully, at least, he won't be as averse to people smarter than him as Calderon (who is, unquestionably, smarter himself, but is no genius either) has been.

Naturally, one always hopes for a Zedillo, and this time those hopes aren't going to be realized - but, remember, Zedillo only got in under very special circumstances.

BTW, just so that people here don't feel to sad about PRD and Lopez Orador :) In Puebla PRD (on personal order of Lopez Obrador) is running for Senate on Manuel Bartlett. Yes, you read it correctly: that's the Manuel Bartlett who was Secretario de Gobernacion under Miguel de la Madrid in 1988 and who personally "crashed the system" to steal that election from Cardenas. If there has been a more hilarious development in Mexican politics recently, I don't recall one - it beats the transformation of Porfirio Munoz from a PRI Secretary General into a radical oppositionist by a huge margin :)))

BTW, today's Reforma reports a huge spike in Ebrard's popularity, at least in Mexico City: 67% approve his performance as mayor, 29% disapprove (it was 54% approve to 39% disapprove as recently as December). I have a feeling, this might be buyer's remorse on both flanks. Had Lopez Obrador not insisted on running and leftist nomination gone to Ebrard, the Vazquez Mota collapse would have played to Ebrard's advantage - the PANistas would have supported him en masse against PRI. As it is, Vazquez Mota's weakness is only helping Pena Nieto - few, if any, PAN supporters would even consider Lopez Obrador despite all their hard feelings about PRI in general and Pena Nieto in particular. W/ Ebrard it would have, likely, been a 2-horse race by now - and Ebrard would have had a chance (though, of course PN would have had to be favored still). As it is, it's building up for a PRI landslide.

Milenio's running a daily tracking poll. I might start posting it more regularly as we approach the date. But today is a milestone: for the first time Lopez Obrador is in the second spot. I will follow their headline numbers, which ignore those undecided and normalize to 100% those who express preference:

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 51%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 25%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 23%
Quadri (PANAL) 1%

Well, I guess, it makes sense to continue w/ the Milenio tracker. There's been a minor revival of PAN at the expense of PRI For the moment, 23% of those polled do not express preference. Of the rest

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 46%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 28%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 25%
Quadri (PANAL) 1%

Does Mexico have a second round between the two "top dogs", if no one gets over 50%?

After 2006, I remember that Calderon promised a kind of run-off, but that was forgotten.

No. Regular plurality.

Not exactly forgotten: all sorts of constitutional reforms have been proposed in Congress, nothing major has passed so far, though some things are still stirring - not the run-off, though. I don't think anybody really wants it - solves no problems, really.

In any case, this year it, likely, won't be an issue at all. PRI is far ahead - and, in any case few PAN voters would ever consider Lopez Obrador, and few Lopez Obrador voters would ever consider any PAN candidate. PRI is, unfortunately, the least unacceptable.

Fairly stable in the Milenio poll, but Lopez Obrador can't seem to repeat his forray into the second place.

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 49%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 28%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 23%
Quadri (PANAL) <1%

Pena Nieto is back at 50:

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 50%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 22%
Quadri (PANAL) 2%

Milenio poll, generally, oscillates quite a bit, but toady seems to be a particularly bad day for Lopez Obrador. Perhaps, if it means anything at all, it could an outcome of a rather strident run-up to the May Day.

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 54%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 18%
Quadri (PANAL) 2%

And rumors of Pena Nieto's homosexuality? I read about a exiled professor who said to have homosexual relationship with him.

Mostly of his heterosexuality. And these are not rumors :)) He's had to fess up some time ago.

Anyway, it wouldn't be a huge issue.

PS I wonder, how you get to be "an exiled professor" in Mexico :)))

A quick google search tells me the guy wasn't a professor, but an elementary school principal by the name of Agustín Estrada Negrete. He sought and recieved asylum in the US after being badly beaten after being arrested during a homosexual rights protest in 2009.
 
Also, for what it's worth, I asked a friend of mine attending university in Mexico City about the Nieto rumor, and she said, "he's not gay but everyone thinks he killed his first wife." So make of that what you will. :P

Well, he may or may not have killed his first wife, but he was cheating on her - in fact, he has had to acknowledge some extra kids from the period of his first marriage. He, surely, is an SOB, but whether he is a murderer remains to be seen. In any case, barring something quite unexpected he'll be president, and he is especially popular among the youngsters: he is the cool guy this time around.

Gay rights protests, in general, are fairly safe in Mexico: at least in Mexico City, where even gay marriage is legal. Mexico state is different, of course. Still, I would suspect his real problems w/ Mexico State government involve something more than his sexual orientation.  I wouldn't put it past state policemen to do criminal stuff (this particular case included). But, somehow, I have doubt that such policemen truly discriminate based on sexual orientation: they are much more likely to be equal opportunity goons. This guy does seem to have had a valid claim of persecution verified by reputable agencies, but one really would like to find out more. His claim of actual relationship w/ Pena Nieto, on one hand, would explain his "special treatment", but, on the other hand, sounds quite incredible for many reasons. Though, I guess, there is some chance that a bureaucrat at the state family service (which was one of EPN's last jobs before he was elected to the state legislature in 2003) could have met a primary school teacher somewhere.

It would be a pretty turn of events if this were to turn to be a true story. The scandal would not be EPN being gay per se, but him persecuting a lover. But, of course, the guy's never been properly vetted: this is, literally, only a third campaign for any office in his life (including that for state legislature in 2003). Until 2005 he's been a nobody and his name was No-one. In 2005 he's been spared a proper primary by being a chosen successor of the then Mexico State governor Montiel (who, actually, elevated this guy from complete obscurity) and the general election was not properly competitive. PAN nominated somebody fairly obscure, and PRD nominated a woman who's biography turned out to be pretty much an invention, up to and including her pseudo-Jewish sounding name - she, certainly, wasn't  interested in anyone digging into candidates' pasts. The only one who's got less political vetting before becoming president in recent history is Zedillo: but Zedillo's private life, I believe, was fairly unexciting - and, in any case, he'd been in federal public service all his life, and they do monitor their staff fairly closely. EPN is an entirely different ballgame: that's what makes him somewhat scary indeed.

Early on, I've been expecting a big scandal that would drop the nomination into a lap of one of the shadier PRI bigwigs. But this one seems to be fairly late in the process, so I've reconciled myself to this not happening - it's too late to do a proper replacement.

For the moment, the reputable media ignore the story (the only articles I've found are about Estrada asking for asylum, and these are from some time ago).  The big Pena Nieto scandal in the news today has to do w/ corruption allegations against his campaign.

Tomorrow is the debate.

Today's Milenio shows a slight tightening

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 45%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 28%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 25%
Quadri (PANAL) 1%

Given my priors on the debating capacity, Lopez Obrador should be in second place next week: he is quite good, and Josefina isn't (nor is EPN, but he is too far ahead for the moment).

BTW, I've been delinquent on reporting this campaign. Didn't have a chance to watch the first debate, but, apparently, Quadri rocked. EPN wasn't that great, but better than expected: no obvious gaffes. The others tried but failed to hit him. The net effect is to reduce support of JVM in favor of Quadri (?!). Anyway, today's Milenio is telling us:
 
Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 46%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 25%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 24%
Quadri (PANAL) 5%

Lopez Obrador's vote share hasn't changed, but he is now in the second spot (though, well within the margin of error).

They've run Pena Nieto out of a (private and full of the very rich) Mexico City university (Iberoamericana) - he had to leave by a back door, amid shouts of "murderer!".  Not that it changes the Milenio tracker much.
 
Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 45%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 25%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 25%
Quadri (PANAL) 5%

Vazquez Mota and Lopez Obrador are completely tied for the second. If only Ebrard were the candidate on the left - it would have been a real race. But, well...

In Brazilian media, relevant news about debate was Julia Orayen's tight..

Well, it seems like they didn't miss THAT much (apart from Quadri's performance, which is about as relevant).

Pena Nieto seems to be touching his lows - but the beneficiary is Quadri (who seems to be outperforming in his joint goals of getting a neat vote share, and hence, the future financial aid for The Teacher and making sure that Vazquez Mota doesn't have a chance to become competitive, thus ensuring Pena Nieto's election). Anyway, today's Milenio tracker is
 
Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 44%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 25%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 25%
Quadri (PANAL) 6%

Vazquez Mota and Lopez Obrador are still tied for the second.

Milenio tracker is very stable:
 
Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 44%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 25%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 25%
Quadri (PANAL) 7%

The problem for the opposition: Vazquez Mota and Lopez Obrador are simply tied, so nobody wants to yield. But signs that strategic voting may happen this year emerge: there is markedly less acrimony between PAN and PRD than one would expect based on the 2006 precedent. And then, locally, at least, things seem to happen.

So, locally, in Mexico City things seem to be moving in a completely different direction. Local PANistas and even some of those who earlier in the year considered voting for PRI seem to be massively moving towards PRD - anything to screw PRI and personally Pena Nieto. Today's Reforma has the following results from the Federal District (in brackets change from the same poll in April):

Mayoral election:

Mancera (PRD/PT/MC) 62% (+7%)
Paredes (PRI/PVEM) 21% (-9%)
Miranda (PAN) 13% (nil)
Guerra (PANAL) 4% (+2%)

Same Reforma poll of presidential vote intentions - once again, only among the voters in Mexico City (Federal District):

Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC): 53% (+8%)
Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM): 27% (-8%)
Vazquez Mota (PAN): 13% (-5%)
Quardi (PANAL): 7% (+5%)

City council:
PRD 44% (+11%) - in a month!
PRI 21% (-4%)
PAN 15% (-2%)
PVEM 6% (-2%)
PT 5% (-3%)
PANAL 5% (+1%)
MC 4% (-1%)

I hope this doesn't lead to another 71 years of PRI rule.

So, at least in Mexico City the situation seems to consolidate. Mancera's lead is simply incredible: 62%!!.  No mayoral candidate since 1997 (when they started electing mayor) has ever got even 50% of the vote (the highest was Cardenas in 1997 - 48.1%; Ebrard got 46.4% in 2006, Lopez Obrador barely scraped through w/ 36.9% in 2000). Admittedly, PAN has an incredibly weak candidate in Miranda, but Paredes should have been very strong. She was supposed to put the city in play for PRI!

PAN's collapsing in the city. You could explain 13% for Miranda - but 13% for Vazquez Mota is incredible. The reason is obvious: the City has come to hate Pena Nieto, so the support is consolidating around the local strong party, which happens to be PRD. Notably, Lopez Obrador is doing very good, but he is nearly 10% behind the mayoral candidate (it was the other way around in 2006). Mancera is widely viewed as an Ebrard's man. One can only imagine how it all would have looked had Ebrard been on the presidential ballot. The city alone would have provided the margin that would be needed to get him ahead of Vazquez Mota - and after that it would have been a two-horse race.

Probably not. Just look at what's happening in the capital. Two months ago a lot of people here for the first time in many years were considering voting for PRI. But now PRI support is literally collapsing. In a month (together w/ the PVEM allies) they lost 9% on the mayoral intention, 8% on the presidential intention and 6% on the city council intention. The only people I personally know, who are still planning to vote Pena Nieto are paid by his campaign. On the other hand, quite a few normally PAN voters I know seem to either have jumped ship to PRD, or about to do so. Not because of what PAN's doing - everybody seems to like, if pity, Josefina. But just out of hatred of PRI.

It would be very hard to reestablish the ancien regime w/ that level of repudiation in the capital. 

Ah, makes sense. How far do your think Quardi will go?

Can't go much further. He did perform extraordinarily well in the debate and he has the most sensible proposals in many areas. But a vote for him is a vote to refill the coffers of La Maestra. So, to vote for him you need to be both sufficiently politically engaged to know about the debates - and sufficiently disengaged not to know, who is behind him. I can't believe there could be more than 10% of such voters (and even that including the captive vote that belongs to La Maestra herself).

What is La Maestra?
The teacher union?

Not "what", but "who". "La Maestra" is Elba Esther Gordillo, who is, as you guessed, the head of the teacher's union (SNTE).

And you dislike her because?

Didn't she used to be a powerful person in the PRI?

I am not a fan of her because of her record a teachers union boss.  Mexican schools are a failure and the teacher's unions are one of the main causes of this.  She also has a record of being a political mercenary given how she has jumped from being in the PRI to being against it to being for it and so on.  This goes for the various factions within the PRI where she flip-flops between different power brokers. Her relationship with the PAN is a similar record of flip flops.

She is the head of one of the most powerful and dangerous organizations in Mexico - and I am including the cartels. Teachers unions (both the one she heads and, unfortunately, the opposition) are, probably, the greatest obstacle to Mexico's development and she has headed the main one for a long time now. She is smart, powerful and evil. If she were merely corrupt (which she, of course, is), I wouldn't have minded her that much.

Talking about her "flip-flopping" is, actually, misleading. It's the parties that are flipping and flopping around her :))  The best reason to support Vazquez Mota is that she and La Maestra hate each other (Gordillo, essentially, pushed Vazquez Mota out of her job as the Education Secretary early in Calderon's administration). Though, one should add, Lopez Obrador isn't a fan either - which is, likewise, probably the best reason to like him.

If Milenio's poll is to be believed, pre-debate status-quo seems to be restoring. Though, probably, just random variation.

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 48%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 22%
Quadri (PANAL) 5%

Meantime, pretty big anti-Pena manifestations in Mexico City seem to be catching fire. It just shows how different the City and the country are.

Can anybody explain to me what makes these Mexican teachers' unions worse than other teachers' unions [are accused of being]? Is it anything specific?

To begin with, it's ONE UNION (SNTE).

Basically, they have established and enforced a system, under which teachers did not have to even be able to read or write in order for them to "do" their job (the government is attempting to change this right now, but is facing enormous resistance). The jobs are frequently (or, at least, have been, until now: again, the government is feebly trying to end this) inheritable, literally, from parent to child. Union officials, their goons and others on good terms with them are frequently able to collect full-time salaries in multiple schools simultaneously, without every teaching a class in any of them. Union regulations encourage large class size and make any sort of non-standard activity impossible (no magnet programs, no advanced anything). Essentially, the national teachers Union works as a gigantic patronage network, that is controlling most aspects of the educational system. Mexico spends a large share of its budget on education - most of it goes to teachers' (and "teachers'") salaries, and nearly all of it is fully controlled by the Union. Any attempt of even most menial reform is met with strikes (sometimes very prolonged) or even riots.

Rank-and-file teachers aren't getting too much out of it, but the Union is enormously rich and powerful (the rumor has it, La Maestra pays the largest monthly personal credit card bills in Mexico :)) ). The Union effectively controls the vote of its members and their families (teachers are extremely dependent on the Union, so few disobey) - hence the guaranteed above-threshold vote for PANAL in recent years, irrespective of whom they nominate. There is also a splinter union (CNTE), which hates La Maestra, because she has, actually, agreed to some minor attempts of quality control by the government: these people believe that somehow violates their god-given rights.

The result of it is that the educational system has deteriorated to the point, when it can't even perform the role of the social lift. Public schools employ semi-literate teachers to produce large numbers of semi-literate graduates, who are not capable of real university-level studies. As almost all public education expenditures (no matter how large) are captured by the Union, quality of physical facilities in many cases has deteriorated even further.  The middle class has almost completely abandoned the public system - anybody, who has even most meagre resources available, sends their children to private schools.  Since, however, the Union has also fairly substantial control over the teachers' training and certification, the quality of teachers in private schools, even those not unionized, is not much better.

Milenio report is generally stable. Now Lopez Obrador is back in the second and Quadri down.

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 45%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 26%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 25%
Quadri (PANAL) 4%

Anti-Pena demonstrations continue. Their participants blame the media for exaggerating Pena's lead. In particular, many people on the street claim Milenio (and some others) fake the polls to make Pena seem inevitable. There is, however, no direct evidence that I've seen, so I will continue reporting this one.

Part of the problem is, Mexico City is very different from the rest of the country - it normally is. I am still to hear anybody not formally employed by a PRI or PVEM campaign here to say anything nice about the guy - or to claim s/he'd vote for him. But, of course, this means nothing - except reinforcing the local public opinion that they are beeing lied to.

     May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Mexican presidential candidate
Enrique Pena Nieto saw his lead narrow in the latest opinion
poll after thousands of students marched against him.
     Support for Pena Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary
Party slid to 35.6 percent in the survey from 37.9 percent the
week earlier, polling company Consulta Mitofsky said today. His
lead over the nearest rival has narrowed to 13.9 points from
17.5 earlier this month.
     Students from both public and private universities have
held protests in major cities since May 17, accusing much of the
media of a bias in favor of the PRI. Some of the protesters have
demonstrated against Pena Nieto, saying they do not want a
return of the party that rule for 71 years until 2000 and which
has been accused of corruption. More marches are scheduled for
tomorrow.
     “These marches will influence the election,” said Javier
Oliva, a political analyst at Mexico’s National Autonomous
University. “It might not cause Pena Nieto to lose, but it puts
the importance of polices for young people such as education and
access to technology on the table.”
     Support for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Party of the
Democratic Revolution rose to 21.7 percent in the latest poll
from 20.5 percent last week, Mexico City-based Mitofsky said.
Josefina Vazquez Mota of the leading National Action Party saw
her support little changed at 20.4 percent, from 20.1 percent in
the previous survey.
     The survey of 1,000 people was taken May 25 to May 27. It
had a 3.1 percentage point margin of error.

It's essentially no change - that's how these things've been going all the time, in all polls (the difference  w/ the Milenio results I report here is due to the fact that those normalize the total to 100%, excluding the undecided, and this one doesn't). It's that sam 2:1:1 split, with a clear advantage of Pena Nieto, and Lopez Obrador and Vazquez Mota roughly at par. Yes, Pena Nieto may be very slightly down - he no longer gets more votes than the other two together - but he is still the overwhelming favorite.

Milenio today

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 44%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 27%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Quadri (PANAL) 4%

I tend to support AMLO.  But...at best, he'll get second.  Nieto has an unfortunately wide lead.

Well, he will, likely, get second - though quite far, in vote-share terms from his second-place finish in 2006, unless Vazquez Mota collapses.

Today's Reforma poll is earth shattering (in brackets, change from April)

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 38% (-4)
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 34% (+7)
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 23% (-6)
Quadri (PANAL) 5% (+3)

This compares w/ the stable Milenio (though there Pena Nieto also hits his bottom reading ever, I think, but it is a very slow change):

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 43%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 27%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Quadri (PANAL) 4%

There is some evidence to suggest that Reforma might be right (aside from, generally, being a more reliable source). In particular, Vazquez Mota is rapidly shifting her attack to Lopez Obrador.

I suppose that at the very least a strong second place showing by AMLO would help the PRD win more seats in the congressional elections that are simultaneous to the presidential vote?

Naturally - there will be coattails. More importanty, if Pena Nieto victory is underwhelming, PRI won't get an outright majority in Congress (nobody has had an outright majority in both chambers since 1997, though right now PRI has an effective majority in the Chaber of Deputies, at least when you include the PVEM). PRD itself is a fairly loose collection of "tribes", so figuring out who exactly would benefit from a good PRD performance is hard until we know who is, actually, elected.

 

It's official. I'm supporting AMLO. Not that it matters, but I thought someone had to know it.

Most countries in Latin America have a second round in presidential elections between the two finalists. mexico is an exception. I am curious if there is any research where people's second preferences would flow if there was a run-off.

Where would PRI voters in a PAN vs PRD second round?
Where would PAN voters go in a PRI vs. PRD run-off?
Where would PRD voters go in a PRI vs PAN runoff?

Well, just to make it equally clear :) I truly hate Pena Nieto, but if I see one more poll like this, and I vote for him. And, unlike you, I am a Mexican citizen :))

Lopez Obrador is a classical Latin American national socialist type. In Europe, Mussolini has taken that part of the political spectrum to the right: the closest ideological cousin of Lopez Obrador in recent Europe would, probably, be somebody like Berlusconi.  Lopez Obrador represents the old "classical" PRI - the Lopez Portillo kind. And, like Lopez Portillo he has a megalomaniac idea of his own self, which makes him especially bad (ideologically, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas might not be that different, but he is a much nicer person, not given to delusions of personal grandeur). 

Not too many actual polls for the presidential race (no run-offs here - no reason to poll). However there is some evidence from congressional races. Historically, except in 2006, there is evidence of PANistas supporting PRD and vice versae, when their preferred candidates don't have a chance. PRIistas, I believe (though with less evidence), would go PAN in the North and PRD in the South.

Lopez Obrador's personality makes it strange. In 2006 the usual PAN-PRD strategic alliance in congressional races broke down badly (people stuck to their candidates even when they had no chance). Right now there is an obvious migration of part of the PAN electorate to Lopez Obrador - but that's, in part, because up till now those who would rather take Pena Nieto as the lesser evil didn't have the reason to vote strategically. If Lopez Obrador becomes a real contender, I bet there will be a sizeable faction that would hold their breath and vote Pena Nieto.

So Vazquez Mota is the only decent (or half decent) candidate?

So, I guess, at the moment this is my likely vote (may still change).

1. President - Vazquez Mota of PAN  (if the Reforma poll turns out to be an outlier) or Pena Nieto of PRI (if it is confirmed by others).
2. Mexico City mayor - Mancera (PRD/MC/PT)
3. Congress (both House and Senate), city council, district mayor - all PAN.

So, it's not unlikely that I vote for all three major parties :))

Sort of. She is, of course, quite far to the right religiously - anti-abortion, for instance (though few people here decide whom to vote for on that basis). But she is personally decent, reasonably smart (though, within limits), not personally corrupt - and she truly hates La Maestra, which would make it at least likely that she'd try to reform the dismal educational system. She has no chance at this point, though.

And, to think of it, that we could have had Ebrard for PRD and Paredes for PRI - we'd have 3 decent candidates, with one of them guaranteed to win.

why should pop-psychoanalytic broad brushstrokes such as the above matter?  is there not an alternative locus, perhaps turned on its head with all of the stupid research showing narcissists may be good for organizations... using the same characteristics to choose leaders as we choose our friends runs the risk of at best being non sequitur...  it's what the GWB campaigns in '00 and '04 explicitly tried to make us do: "who would you rather have a beer with?"

as stated perfectly by mewithoutYou.


I often wonder if I've already died,
Or if the 'I' is an unintelligible lie

Off we flew like swarms of hornets
'Woken up' from winter’s rest
To colonize with plastic pulp
Our neighbor’s perfect paper nest
While all year round potter wasp
Has buzzed her unhinged song:
You can hear its creaking in our floorboards:

megalomania’s only mania if you’re wrong

My mom will be voting for Vazquez Mota and has no interest in choosing between a lesser of two evils of Nieto and AMLO (I'm guessing she'd pick AMLO). If I actually decided to go through the process and become a dual citizen, I'd probably vote for Quadri.

Because he is fundamentally hostile to democracy and Mexico hasn't been a stable  democracy for long, so undermining that achievement won't be hard. In his view ANYTHING whatsoever that happens that he doesn't like is a "plot" to prevent him executing his vision of the world (in which vision, of course, he is the indispensible leader).  He is incapable of understanding that people might criticize him for any reason other than treason or some nefarious conspiracy.  And, no, he is not like the other politicians in this dimensions - he is almost comically incapable of expressing even token remorse or accepting a token blame for anything. He can't even for a second imagine that an opponent might be out there for legitimate reasons - anybody, who ever goes against him, is the vilest, murderous scum (or, at best, is in the pay of the vilest, murderous scum). If facts go against him - well, then reality must be participating in a plot to bring him down, but he won't let reality do this without punishment.

And this is not "pop-psychoanalisis", but mere observation of his reactions during the last 12 years in public politics.

I´m not a big fan of López Obrador but your comparisions sound a bit strange. Maybe if AMLO were the owner of Televisa and demonstrators were claiming against him and his "Soap Opera Democracy" Berlusconi would call him a cousin. Do you really think that they are near talking in ideological terms? Leaving apart the word "populist", which is a vague and imprecise definition, I can´t found similarities. I guess that when you are taking about National Socialism you are talking about a certain type of left parties and personalities in Latin America ("populists", "nationalists", etcetera) but you also mention Mussolini. That reminds me when here, in Spain, certain centralist people talk about the "Nazi-onalistas" referring to our own peripheric nationalists. Really, I can´t (under) stand certain types of parallelisms between contexts and situations. Mussolini is a serious thing, even when I understand the resentment towards the Old PRI Guard. 

Disrespect for democracy and the rule of law, preference for corporativist monopoly state (as long as the monopolies are domestic and either subservient to the government or directly controled by it), strident nationalism, severe intolerance to criticism, reliance on personal charisma, creation of private "alternative" institutions working for the leader and loyal, primarily or exclusively, to him. Is that enough? Or should I continue?

Are you talking of AMLO in comparison with Il Cavaliere or Mussolini? Are the two latter exactly the same? And what about the "national socialists"? Criticism is fine and I won´t defend a person like the PRD candidate but I think you are bringing the things too far.
Are you talking of AMLO in comparison with Il Cavaliere or Mussolini? Are the two latter exactly the same? And what about the "national socialists"? Criticism is fine and I won´t defend a person like the PRD candidate but I think you are bringing the things too far.

All three are not the same, of course, but they share a lot - I tried to identify the things they have in common. I am not accusing anyone of anything: naturally, neither Berlusconi, nor Lopez Obrador have established a dictatorship or illegally occupied Ethiopia :))

But it is crucially important for understanding Mexican and, more generally, Latin American politics to understand that (with some notable exceptions, of course) the Latin American left and the European far right share both ideological roots and contemporary sensibilities. It is not merely a curiosity that many Latin Americans (not only the left, of course) retained fairly ambivalent attitudes towards the fascist and even the Nazi "experiments" until fairly late: Latin America has never experienced the WWII horrors, so it never got the "liberal innoculation" Europe got, never developed immunity to the siren song of national-socialism.

Lopez Obrador is not, of course, unique here - he merely follows the old PRI "Revolutionary" tradition. His personality, though, makes him much more dangerous - especially if we recall how young and immature Mexican democracy is.

In South Korea elections are held without run-off too, but polling for hypothetical second round exists: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_South_Korean_presidential_election,_2012.

It's pity that in Mexico polling for run-off is not conducted. It would be interesting to see it, especially in 2006.

Oh, well, you weren´t talking about a march of "red shirts" over Mexico DF. That´s cooling down.

Which left are you talking about? Obrador or Hermes Binner? Chávez or Allende? Not all the Latin American left has the same ideological background and maybe I am missing the point but I don´t understand your statement about the ambivalence of the left towards the Nazis or the supossedly shared roots (again, which left?). I always thought that Perón was somewhat ambivelent and certainly was a close friend of Franco but, was he a leftist or a mere populist? It´s impossible to compare Perón policies in the 40-50´s with the latter Peronist governments in the seventies (fairly well rightist). Open sympathies can be found in the far-far right (Stroessner of course and some Argentinian or Chilean reactionaries). Maybe there are examples of individual lefties anyway, but now I can´t remember. Despite the "liberal innoculation" in (Western) Europe we have all those far-right and populist parties in countries fairly well civilized, so perhaps they haven´t developed inmunity against this virus after all.

About AMLO personality nothing to say but perhaps it´s understandable (probably not justifiable) a certain degree of paranoia given the Mexican recent History. Everybody knows thet Cuahtémoc Cárdenas won an election and PRI guys made tricks to change the result. I won´t campaign for any Mexican candidate anyway.

I may have seen some polling, though I am not certain - not for a run-off, of course, but about your "second preference". Actually, this is not the same thing :) One votes very differently, depending on whether the election is close or not. For instance, if the last pre-election poll were to show Pena Nieto far ahead of everyone, my second choice would have been Lopez Obrador - I'd hate a big Pena majority. On the other hand, if I thought Lopez Obrador could win, I would definitely claim my second preference to be Pena Nieto - I'd hate a Lopez Obrador victory, whatever the margin. As the run-off and first-round dynamics aren't the same, I could very well imagine voting for Lopez Obrador in the first round only to switch to Pena Nieto in the second :)) In any case, my preference in one-round election would be different from that in a two-round poll.

The "left" I am talking about is, of course, the "illiberal non-Communist left", in the Calles/Obregon-Peron-Kirchner-Chavez tradition. Then, of course,there is APRA - they didn't call themselves FAJistas before WWII for nothing :))   Bolivian Morales is a rather special case: but then, Bolivia has never emerged from feudalism, so it is bound to be special.

The Pro-Soviet or pro-China, properly Communist groups, of course, are a special case, but they haven't had that much of a governance experience - baring Cuba, of course (though whether Castro brothers are that far removed from the fascist tradition is worth thinking about).

I did mention notable liberal exceptions. Naturally, the bulk of the Chilean left has been very different, for instance (even pre-Pinochet). So is, post-Vargas, the left in Brasil, I guess. There are other exceptions as well, of course. But the more typical Latin American left is, undeniably, fascist. Whether it does send out the red or yellow or whatever shirts depends on historical circumstances, and not on the ideological aversion to such mode of action.

That'd be so awesome if AMLO were elected president.

So is your first preference some "irrelevant" third fourth party, and if so who? This post is confusing to me, I assume it's not the right-wingers since you said you would would for one of the left-wingers if it's a two round vote. It seems to me both of the left-wingers have some serious baggage, AMLO hired Guiliani and seems to have trolled seriously over his loss in past presidential election. PRI is well... PRI.

Ag, can you tell us why Nieto is so unpopular in Mexico City? What makes D.F. so different from the rest of the country in this regard? (apart from the obvious differences between the domineering capital and countryside you get in any country).

If you make an aggregation of "liberal" or "acceptabe" (by westerner standards) leftist parties in Latin America (PT, Brazil; PS, Argentina and Chile; some "social democracy" in countries like Costa Rica...) maybe you´ll find that this type is not so uncommon.

Sounds uncompromising your assesment: "the more typical left is fascist". Really, you can say what you want about Evo Morales or leaders like him but never "fascist" (and , oh Dear, he´s "aborigin"). Partially agree with "special cases" like APRA and some people like the Peruvian President´s father but, again, it sounds too steadfast. And like I said before, Perón was not a leftist.  Communists types like Castro or Maoists like Sendero Luminoso must be classified in another section.

PS is an all but irrelevant minor party in Argentina - you could have mentioned the now defunct PSD in Mexico, for that matter. Who cares what they are, really. Costa Ricans (Arias types, the PLN) are now perceived in local politics as "right-wingers" - and, anyway, Costa Rica is smaller than many of the Mexican states, hardly could be called a major country.

Whatever Peron was, he wasn't "rigthwing" either, at least within the local political scene. Of course, "peronism" is an omnivorous ideology. But Kirchners are peronists - and you can hardly call the current argentinian government "rightist". Peronism, like PRIism and APRism are the archetypal "Latin left" movements - you'd be hard-pressed to argue that these were not the most influencial such movements in the continents' history.

Brasil and Chile (and, ok, Costa Rica) provide the notable exceptions, which I've mentioned from the outset. But Brasil is a world of its own, with an extremely strange politics, and it is not even Spanish-speaking. So, other than Chile and Costa Rica, where else have you had "liberal leftists" in government of a Spanish American country for any considerable length of time?

Of course, all this merely serves to highlight the inadequacy of the usual "left-right" terminology. What's left in one country, is right in the other and these things even change across time in the same country (see Costa Rica).  My point is precisely that: what is normally considered "left" in Latin America would be considered "right" in contemporary Europe.

PRI hasn't been popular in the City forever - even before democracy it sometimes failed to get a majority within the city. It helped, of course, that until 1997 Mexico City had no home rule and no elected local government - it didn't matter that the presidential candidate would get, say, a mere 45% of the vote locally

When democracy came, Mexico City quickly got a fairly stable PRD/PAN two-party system, with PRI relegated to being a distant third party. The local PRI machine has been inherited by the PRD (Lopez Obrador has been crucial in reconstructing it). So, the machine electorate is now w/ PRD and the City has a larger than normal educated electorate that has been rejecting both the machine politics and the old regime forever. The usual PRI campaign tactics don't work here: what they know best has been taken from them by the PRD, and when they try doing the same thing on the university campuses, all they get is a mass protest and an embarassment.

To sum up, Pena Nieto isn't doing that badly for a PRIista, at least by the standards of the City - he is going to do a lot better than Madrazo did in 2006 (I haven't checked right now, but I have a vague recollection that he's been held to single digits back then).

Oh, no, not Quadri, god forbid, no (this is the fourth candidate - and there are only four). He is, obviously, the smartest guy in the batch, and he is a proper economic right-winger (by Mexican standards), so, ideologically, I like a lot of what he says. But he is La Maestra's boy - and I wouldn't give my vote to La Maestra for sure. Of the existing four candidates my first preference is, undoubtedly, Vazquez Mota. But she is rapidly collapsing, I am afraid.

Most recent poll:
Nieto: 38%
Obrador: 34%
Mota: 23%
Quadri: 4%
I feel really sorry for the Mexican people if these are their choices.  Obrador is an asshole, but I guess he's better than Nieto.  It's still depressing, though. 

Better an asshole than a dumb tool of organized crime.

That poll has been reported above. And it is only the most recent one from Reforma, not in general. And Lopez Obrador is worse Than EPN. Mercifully, so far it is the only one to show smthg like this.

What are the chances that Vazquez Mota might make it to the run-off?

0%, I'm *very* certain. :P

Southwards up.

South America.

Classifying Perón as left is quite controversial. Classifying Peronism is even more. As with Vargas, there were fascist and antifascist tendencies amongst the supporters. As there were leftist and rightist wings, not merely groups more on the left or more on the right.
Chile is already out, by your own analysis.
I'm failing to see any relation between leftists and fascism in Uruguay.
Vargas is miles away from being accepted as a leftist inside Brazil, even in his democratic tenure. He was more an aggregator of anticonservative and anticommunist positions. Re-founded PTB was always seen as a conservative party.
There never was a left in Paraguay outside intellectual circles.
Bolivia is also already out.
Well, in Peru your analysis works.
Unless I'm forgetting something really important, in Ecuador as in Uruguay.
I'm really not aware of any relation between Colombian liberals and fascism. But I'm open to information I may lack.
Venezuelan left has an old tradition of antifascism and the more traditional parties got out Chávez coalition early. I also wouldn't relate him with fascism so easily. Which are your points for this relation? I see him much more as having an unsolved relation with Leninism (some weird uncomplete-non-Marxist-Leninism than any fascist concept).
French Guyana is generally listed as Latin-america, but here is not the case (at any understanding).

So, only the one Southern-American country that (this is my very own and personal perception, don't ask me why) I perceive as being culturally like Central America qualifies for your generalization.


Central America.

Well I must confess, my knowledge here is quite fragmentary...

What would be the fascist left in Panama?
Costa Rica is out of the generalization, obviously.
Also, what about Nicaragua? El Salvador? Honduras? I only know their tradition of Marxist left, TBH.


So, for what I can see, It seems that you're extrapolating Mexican politics to the rest of the region. Perón, Vargas, Chávez, are (were) not the PRI.

Ag is right when he says that PS is a minor party in Argentina but in the last Presidential Hermes Binner ended second (a fairly distant second) leading a coalition in the same fashion of Frente Amplio (Uruguay). And yes, Costa Rica "social democrats" (like in Guatemala, Dominican Republic and others) are not too leftist in the classical sense. Kirchner goverment represents the presumed "left-wing" of Peronism but as you said in this genuine Argentianian political movement you can see all types of speech, ranging from "neocons" to "radical left". I don`t believe in the leftist convictions of the Kirchner couple, maybe you can find a genuine left in "Proyecto Sur" and an "European left" in the mentioned Binner coalition. I can´t hardly identify the PRI movement with a classical left, it depends on which PRIista president are you talking about. I see many differences between Lázaro Cárdenas and López Portillo.
 
He´s also right when he says that the usual terminology "left-right" doesn´t work in many Latin American countries. But I think that he´s absolutely missing the point when he tries to identify left with fascist totalitarism in Latin America. This continent is pretty complex and every country deserves his own analysis.

I don't agree with such kind of statement in any country that is at least semi-industrialized. Well... Maybe on Southeast Asia.

[quote author=yellow brick road link=topic=142171.msg3317028#msg3317028 date=But I think that he´s absolutely missing the point when he tries to identify left with fascist totalitarism in Latin America. This continent is pretty complex and every country deserves his own analysis.
[/quote]

I second this.


BTW, my impression of Mexican politics is that It reached the 1930's 20 years before and got out 70 years after. What about nowadays, does the PRI still have some identifiable wing based on any, at least lose, idea, or are them just a bunch of whores, like the average contemporary Latin-American politicians?

Probably. My sin here was generalization. Let´s talk about single countries.


The second (a bunch of w...) fits very well with PRI and Peronists (Kirchner or rightist wings). I don´t feel very happy with the average European politicians, so I will be moderate talking about Latin Americans. Anyway I agree with you.

There is no runoff. 1st round is only round.

Exactly 0 - same as all the rest. There is not run-off.

Well, considering that, by you definition, Argentina has never had consequential left and that Colombian Liberals have always been a lot further from being "left" than either Peron(honestly, Uribe is not such an atypical their representative, if you thing about it), whom you don't want to acknowledge as members of the family, that, basically, tells us, that there has never been a proper (non-Communist) "left" in most of Spanish-speaking America :)) BTW, Correa is well within Chavezian tradition (as far as one ca be in a country like Ecuador - and there've been a few others who'd fit the bill even better, if I reacall), APRA (and PRI, for that matter) has been a major influence on Bolivian politics (thin Paz Estenssoro) and Panamanian PRD is, most definitely you standard issue Lat Am "fascist" party:))  In fact, if I go by your definition Argentina, Paraguay and Colombia have never had "proper"  left at all, and all the rest (with, possible exceptions of three smallish countries: Chile, Uruguay and, may be, Costa Rica), have never had any non-Commie left that wouldn't fit my definition (Brazil I don't count - it's not really part of the community, not being Spanish speaking).

()

In the name of God, why is not Brazil a part of the Latin American community? We were talking about Latin and not Spanish America. Brazil is politically and economically integrated in the continent and in fact is the real and almost the only superpower there. And they have a strong desire of being integrated; even the teaching of Spanish language in the school is compulsory.

Until Mercosul/r creation, It was very weird for us to be 'classified' together the hispanic countries. The average attitude towards hispanics wasn't too much different of that one can expect of Anglo-americans. We simply understood that we needed to integrate with our neighbours and build stronger cultural relations, in order to develop together. I really don't understand why some countries behave as they want to be the fancy neighbour inside a crappy neighbourhood.
Actually, It is a strong belief in our culture, that neighbours should support one each other. That's why I never understood an old-fashioned idiotic feud between Brazilians and Argentinians, which is, thankfully, fading throughout new generations.
Mexico, being the bigger economy on the north of the region, should keep on building stronger economic relations with Central America. It would be better for the country and for the region.

Is any of the candidates addressing this issue?

Central America is not an issue in Mexico: they only remember of its existence when some central american migrants get massacred en route to the US. Other than treatment of migrants (and an occasional hot ambasador's private affair w/ a Mexican pol), nobody ever even remembers those countries exist (well, I don't know, it may be different in Chiapas, I am talking Mexico at large). There are all the requisite free-trade agreements and such, of course, and periodic summits, etc., but those countries are so small, in comparison, nobody, really, is fully aware, whether they are there, or not (well, of course, people tend to know they have soccer teams, as one has to play those to get the spot in the World Cup). Talking about Guatemala on the campaign trail (again, outside of Chiapas) is, probably, as essential, as talking about gaelic football or a mosquito infestation somewhere in Africa: nobody cares.

I saw this...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/07/enrique-pena-nieto-mexico-election

...and thought of this thread.

Even American coverage of this election is superior. :P

The countries are small individually, but the regions total population is about 1/3 of Mexicos, so it seems odd that you totally disregard them.

"The rightwing Institutional Revolutionary Party"

lol

It's not like these countries are a coherent whole - they don't even have much impact on one another. Walk down the streets of San Jose and count the cars with non-Costa-Rican licence plates - you won't see many (I'd bet, not even one a day, unless you go by the embassies). They don't even have good roads to Panama (or, for that matter, Nicaragua).

Nor do they share much common interest. Costa Rica and Panama are fairly wealthy (no illegal migrants from that side) and almost self-sufficient. El Salvador is a peculiar US-Mexican "condominium" with  a notable business class and a bunch of leftwing Jesuits, but with god-awful crime and without education. Honduras is so incompetent, they can't even run a decent coup. Nicaragua is dirt poor, beligerent and impossible to deal with even if somebody cared to do so, while Belize is tiny and anglophone (there aren't even direct flights to Mexico City from the last two). The only one of these countries of non-transportaion consequence is Guatemala, but it is a feudal land of little economic interest.  

At least, Guatemala has some interesting culture - the rest have lost most of what they ever had. But, then, it's not as if you couldn't get similar stuff in Chiapas. A trip to Costa Rica could be reasonably exotic, but the others have near zero tourist potential for Mexicans. And they are hard to get to: for 650 dollars it costs to fly to El Salvador and back you can go to San Antonio almost 3 times.  

Two days ago former Mexican president Vicente Fox (PAN) proclaimed his support for the PRI candidate, Enrique Peña Nieto. Obviously the PAN leadership is distressed.

Yesterday in The Guardian: "Computer files link TV dirty tricks to favourite for Mexico presidency"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/07/mexico-presidency-tv-dirty-tricks

In May the Mexican newspaper Reforma reported payments to journalists ("roughly $2.4 millions") from Peña Nieto.

http://knightcenter.utexas.edu/blog/00-10087-mexican-presidential-candidate-paid-millions-dollars-journalists-mentions-media

Business as usual?

In just over 3 hours the second (and last) presidential debate begins. The latest Milenio tracker, so far:

Enrique Pena Nieto (PRI-PVEM) 45%
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD-PT-MC) 29%
Josefina Vazquez Mota (PAN) 22%
Gabriel Quadri (PANAL) 4%

The debate starts now. It will go for 135 minutes. Pretty much every Mexican paper has a stream. I am watching here:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/noticias.html

JVM is really going agains Lopez Obrador. She brought up him joining PRI in 1971 - the time of the worst repression and student massacres (the two big ones were in 1968 and 1971). Both she and Quadri attacked his credibility on fiscal numbers as well.

Quadri asked other candidates about abortion. Both Pena Nieto, and, remarkably, JVM said they are against criminalizing abortion (though she repeated that life begins at conception). AMLO ignored it (actually, he just said he agrees with decriminalizing). He also asked about same-sex marriage - all three have so far ignored it.

Quadri is, actually, once against the best. He just called for taking the controlling agency from the executive.

Lopez has just said he was too young in 1971 to know what he was doing - but she is somehow lying as well.

Interestingly, JVM has the lowest voice of the four :))

Now she is attacking EPN for spying on people. She is really on the attack. But she looks VERY tired.

Quadri has just proposed a free-trade agreement with China :))

EPN has shown some table where Mexico is nearly last in AL in something. Pity he didn't say in what :))

Among Reforma subscribers (clearly, not an independent group :)) ), so far JVM gets 4.8, EPN gets 3.4, AMLO 2.8 and Quadri 2.3. Very unfair to Quadri - he IS the best.

AMLO is pledging to be FDR. Literally :))

JVM is saying she is fightin to PRI candidates: PRI and AMLO.

She doesn't seem to have any foreign policy other than appointing an undersecretary of foreign affairs for migrant affairs.

But, gosh, does she sound exhausted.

Quadri proposes creating a Mexican version of the Goethe Institute (to be called Octavio Paz Institute) to promote Mexican culture abroad.

EPN points out that it is PAN and PRD that go into alliances, not PRI and PRD.

EPN is calling for North American integration.

JVM really has no foreign policy. Pathetic.

She is now attacking Quadri. "Every vote for you is a vote for a family - a very particular family".

JVM just lost big chunk of my good will: she is talking about "just commerce for the shoe industry". B-r-r-r. EPN was outright much better on this. She is really without foreign policy. bing SO unready on a preannounced topic - uff.

As part of his foreign policy AMLO promises 100% university coverage in Mexico.

Quadri is the only one to remember Central America exists.

Proposes "recovering CA", Mexican investments in the region,  and giving Central Americans the same rights as Mexicans in Mexico.

Why, oh why has JVM been so bad on foreign policy.

Quadri is proposing to prepare for Cuban transition to democracy, so that Mexican companies can benefit.

Quadri wants to reopen Mexican embassy at UNESCO and build up Mexican culture offices (again).

He says Mexico has to use the closeness to the US and NAFTA to reindustrialize and compete (w/ free trade) w/ China. Actually, JVM could have said a lot about it - it's a major success of PAN governments - she blew it.

AMLO says "free trade agreements are not a panacea". Production should be supported. B-r-r.  But he is saying it well.

So far, honestly, it is, in my view Quadri>EPN=AMLO>JVM.

JVM has proposed universal social security (including minimal pension from the age of 70).

Somewhat better for her, now, but not well presented: she sounds like she is about to collapse.

Quadri is very much at ease. EPN is somewhat tense and rehearsed, but not too bad. AMLO bullsh**ts, but he is relaxed.

Quadri proposes changing the drug policy - treating it as a medical problem.

Remarkably, AMLO and JVM have nearly identical social proposals - but AMLO, while saying, actually, less, manages to seem to be in command, while she seemed shaky - despite having more meat.

JVM again attacks the PRI/PRD - for fiscal irresponsibility in the states they govern. Attacks AMLO for lack of transparency and corruption in DF when he governed (and EPN for the same in Mexico state).

Remarkably, she says very little about actual successes of PAN governments - there ARE successes. She runs as if she were in opposition to the PRI/PRD regime.

Quadri is the only one to ask "how to pay for this?"

He has chutzpah - talking about education being the most important thing :)) And about improving the quality of teacher training - and about testing teachers :)) Wow!

I can't believe. Nobody is that dumb.

The least meridional.

JVM just lost more in my eyes. Thou shalt give credit where it is due - and she didn't, as far as Oportunidades is concerned.

Then she has the guts to bring up Bartlett and Montiel (the gray skeletons behind AMLO and EPN) - and she is right. But she is so tired, she barely can say "Bartlett".  

Not with the Chinese platform.

AMLO=FDR=OMG

This is a clever cultural policy. Weird, but clever.

AMLO is comparing his proposed cabinet to that of Juarez. Cardenas to be head of Pemex. New secretariats for Science and Culture: Poniatowska at the latter and a respected (but 75-year-old) scientist at the latter. Ex-UNAM rector to be at education. The economic block is pathetic, though - not that anybody would have any doubts about that (he is delusional to think these people are respected).

Quadri is the only one to remember agriculture - "new agricultural reform", missed a bit the content.

EPN acknowledges Montiel is almost his "father" - guts to say that.

As dumb as Quadri's oriental orientation.

It is THE thing Mexico has to do.

Mota looks like she could use an energy drink

It's not dumb at all. BTW, Mexico has just removed all special tariffs against Chinese products. And it's normal tariffs are tiny, anyway. That would open Chinese markets, with minimal impact on our side.

Quadri, I think, is proposing to change housing policy to develop cities, not so much distant suburbs, as it is now - the housing agency to be given cabinet status.

It will finish with Mexico. Thanks all the deities humanity has ever believed, the ALCA went into a natural abortion.

EPN attacks JVM - as the horrible PAN head in Congress, which prevented agreements.

Not at all. It is Mexico's chance to develop: Mexican monopolies have to be disolved in North American markets.

AMLO is the worst bull-sh**ter of them all. 3 trillion pesos of the budget, if we divide them among all Mexicans, everybody would have so much money. B-r-r-r.

Free trade agreements only work when one of the countries is not unable to completely destroy the others economy. Otherwise, It will happen.

For foreigners?

Clever. Again, weird but very, very clever.

Clever. And It ain't weird at all. Brazil is just waiting to do It.

I don't know how He said It. But the core of It is plain right.

Wow! Wouldn't expect. Is It demagogic bull[Inks] or is there any chance she does
It?

Quadri seems good when He's not talking about economy.

It's pretty much guaranteed - everybody proposes it and it is being implemented already. Udmiittedly, the pension will be tiny in any case.

Especially, when he is talking about the economy.

JVM made a point of criticizing the PRI and AMLO, but not PRD. She asked for the leftist (and "honest PRI" vote).

:))

How feasible is that (and what's the real impact on the average corruption perception)?

This is that kind of good proposals that needs to be taken carefully.
    -  education being the most important may mean "let's just training people for tasks". This will just guarantee underdevelopment.
    -  evaluating teachers without previously giving them better conditions and training (even if only for tasks) is the best and more demagogic way to make education a big [Inks]ing dump.

Mexican economy is ALREADY pretty open, at least as far as formal barriers are concerned. It could reduce tarrifs to zero, and little would happen - the last major anti-Chinese tarrifs have just been abolished. PAN is desperately removing them all before they are kicked out of office - they can't be returned by WTO rules :))

This is clever in principle. But It can turn into a simple Marathon of real state market, to built more and fast - and the result can be even worse than stupid suburbanization.

It can't be a bigger dump than it is. Public schools in most places simply give no education beyond, perhaps, basic literacy - and even that not everywhere. The teacher quality at present cannot, possibly, become worse.

They've been building millions of houses without public transit or infrastructure in open fields around the cities. W/ public money, in part.

The whole Mexican economy will be dissolved. That's the problem. It's the kind of drug that really ends with the disease. It kills the patient, so the disease is gone.

EDIT.   Unless, sure, You're seeking Puerto Rican status...

Oh sh*t. And Paulo Maluf made school. What else, are they building stupid viaducts all around?

Mexico has been enormously successful in trade competition. There is no reason why Mexicans won't be able to continue doing it. And, of course, disolving national economy in the greater North American economy is the point - we suffer from our own monopolies and oligarchies, making them part of the greater North American economy would remove their poison.

Yes, of course :))

AMLO has been one of the greatest enthusiasts, as Mexico City mayor. At least, Ebrard is also building the metro - AMLO's efficiency was such, that he only could build the viaducts (and fewer of those than Ebrard, at that).

My Kthulhu. Or they've killed all urbanists, or else they need to be killed.

Mexico is a tad bigger. And has pretty big and important businessmen. So, it would be a merger, not a plain acquisition. But, yest, that degree of (economic) integration would really be great (not without :)) ) Not that EPN wants it.

As I've put on the edit.

Urban planning has never been Mexican specialty :)) The last time any proper citywide planning happened was, probably, around the time of Cortes :))

Add to this the fact, that there is zero political time-horizon. A mayor gets elected for 6 years, by the end of his 3rd year he works out some proposals, and at the beginning of the 6th year he starts running for another office (and, soon resigns). City district mayors and city council members get elected for 3 years - and resign after two.

Nobody is proposing Mexico adopting the dollar - Banxico has been reasonably good at managing our own monetary policy recently. But making sure the Slims of this world have to compete w/ the Buffets is, undoubtedly, a worthy objective.

I don't share your enthusiasm at all, but I can see that It's not the cluesless proposals that popped throughout the region in the 90's.

Unlike the rest of the continent, Mexico has never been clueless on it. NAFTA was a very well though through decision, and it has done a lot to change Mexico. We aren't in South America, you know :))

Mmm... the little this kind of policy was tried here, Slims and Buffets joined to make things worse.

Where?

Well, I was there in 95(just after the country went down, I believe) and in the early 00's. I really couldn't see this. It was also not what the regular guys on the street told me. But this was so long ago...

Banks (they practically started to steal us). Telecom (bills went mad, services went crappier). Press (It was just international capital got in and It stopped having any respectability). Urbanism (they installed the suburban closed community as the well-off fool's dream)...

Brazil is one of the least integrated major countries in the world - it's a pretty closed economy, isn't it?

Anyway, telecoms are mad and crappy here already - thank you, Mr. Slim. Banks are already mostly foreign - and i don't have ANY problem w/ it. It is Mr. Slim who invests in NYTimes and El Pais right now, and not the other way around, and Televisa is a major player in the US market already - no reason why this should change. No problem w/ suburban communities - I don't want to live there, but who am I to impose my preferences on others. Anyway, no need for foreigners to think that up. And closed communities here exist in the very city - no need for suburbs for that.

I've been living in Mexico since 2000. Mexico has grown huge in international trade over the years. That it hasn't helped the country develop is due to rampant domestic monopolism and the pathetic educational system. But what the years have shown is that Mexicans have no reason to be afraid of trade and international competition: they are good at it.

Yuck!


Well, the integration processes went so awful (and I would not put the blame on the guys who tried It, They were competent on what They were doing) that It streghtened alterglobalization and even Natioinalist positions.
It's just that a country with the economic and geographic caracteristics ours have cannot play as if It was Singapore.
BTW, what is the effect of that kind of policies to the average guy? I'm asking It because the tentative to implant them in Brazil caused massive lowering of wages, brutal informalization of economy, destruction of middle class professionals' markets and last, but not least, an epic growth of the national debt in a manner I simply could not believe some government willing to keep in power would allow to happen. Rich Paulistas, on the other hand, were very, very well, thanx.

Well, we've been good on It as well. At least we've dominated and became big on every area we tried, to the point that governments that defends free trade openly, on backstages used the most awful artifices to stop Brasilian capital lead companies. The internal result, yet, wasn't worth at all. Only when It started to be some industrial policy again It started to be interesting for Zé da Silva.

Honestly, I don't even know what you are talking about. Brazil has never really tried to integrate into the world economy: you can't ascribe any sins to a policy that has never been tried.

Who has ever tried to stop "Brazilian-lead" companies - and why don't "they" ever do this to Mexican companies, I wonder :))

Small airships. Some country around which seems to be a cold Australia and have a traditional company on the sector made a mess some years ago...
Agricultural goods. All the time fake claims of not reaching standards are always being made and never being sustained...
Oil. Bids seem to be made, sometimes, to the prejudice of some countries if they avoid one state-owned company to get well...
Siderurgy. National companies have a nice share on that same coldaustralia-like country, and since then, unions are much more active than before, with support of sectors that previously were staunchly anti-unions.
The ones that hadn't found too much opposition, were brewery (but It's more a joint-venture with belgians, and the headquarters are in Europe) and mining.

So, unless You believe that industries are really a matter of History and that soft economy is the only thing that matters, I'm seeing a quite noticeable presence of "Brazilian-lead" companies. And "they" seem to be much more concerned with goods production than with soft economy. Despite declaring the opposite.

But if Mexico is willing to keep It soft, and believes that It is feasible to sustain the whole country this way, I gave up warning the effects of all those policies. For such kind of country, It may work. Yet, I have my doubts a country that sized can do It. You have such a population and needs such a infrastructure, It will really be an achievement.

For the moment, what free trade has done to Mexico is to make it a manufacturing giant :)) Unsurprising, of course: that's where the comparative advantage is. You now are trying to protect yourselves from Mexican cars, not Chinese or American. In Mexico they are building car factories to export stuff. Notably, though, I haven't heard of Mexican government banning imports of Embraer planes - Aeromexico, actually, has a few orders outstanding right now. What if Mexicans were to decide to link cars and planes? Do you think Embraer workers would be happy?

And Mexican-based multinationals are doing fine buying up companies all over the world (including the US). America Movil, Cemex, Grupo Bimbo, FEMSA, etc.: don't see where they've been wronged (well, of course, the likes of Chavez do confiscate stuff, perhaps you had that in mind).

If Brazil chooses to diminish itself by shunning competition, it's up to Brazilian voters, of course, but I do consider that to be imbecility :))

Doesn't Embraer the 3rd or 4th airplane manufacturer in the world?
1 and 2 are Airbus and Boeing (or the reverse) with 3 and 4 being Embraer and Bombardier (or the reverse, if I remember well.

Well, the matter of cars is a little more tricky than this. They were planned to be sold to American markets, that silly giant stuff they like there. With the 2008 crash, the companies (which are American, Japanese and German - am I forgetting someone? - not Mexican neither Brazilian) lowered prices and threw big cars on other markets. The main traffic problem on my city today are those awful big cars that doesn't fit on the lanes, neither on parking. And everybody is buying them, because the companies gives every kind of advantage to acquire one of them, even creating banks to give lower interest rates.
Yet, the main restriction on competitivity was against small Chinese cars, to protect Brazilian AND Mexican production. You're wrong on this information.
So, in the end, companies everywhere are making less money than they planned. People are buying unsustainable products and making things worse in the cities.
I really would support restriction on competition, but if It was to make It difficult to buy SUV's, Brazilian or Mexican produced, and making easier to buy the smaller ones, Chinese, Brazilian or whatever.

BTW, what Chávez have to do with this? Do You also need a strawman as the average Brazilian free-market defender needs? I really thought You were doing better than that. :)

If you count every size, yes.
If You take big planes out, than Embraer and Bombardier are alone.

The discussion got far from the election stuff and It's really late now.
Maybe tomorrow We can have another thread. And type while drinking some Imbev beer. :P

Considering, that right now this is the biggest sore point in Mexican-Brazilian relations (quite prominent in Mexican media, BTW), I could hardly be wrong. Brazil has asked for limitations on Mexican imports - going against existing international agreements. Mexican response to Brazil was to go freak itself (pretty much in those many words): we don't play those games here.

He's been expropriating Mexican investments: talk about playing dirty against a fellow third-world nation.

True. Russians and Chinese are trying to enter, though. Russians have managed to get a huge order from Mexico's Interjet for the new Superjet plane - but, of course, that was before a recent demonstration-flight crash in Indonesia. I'd be more scared of the forthcoming Chinese competition :)

Interestingly, the public opinion seems to be at odds with my debate impressions (at least according to Milenio tracker) - JVM gains from everyone and almost closes the gap w/ AMLO

Enrique Pena Nieto (PRI-PVEM) 44%
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD-PT-MC) 27%
Josefina Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Gabriel Quadri (PANAL) 3%

Quadri would have been a great candidate if he wasn't the lamb of that corrupt teacher. Someone to support if you are a leftist and you don't like Peña Nieto and still think AMLO isn't the best Mexico can have as President.

Within Mexican politics, Quadri is, probably, the most rightwing candidate out there. He is, of course, socially liberal and green, but on economics he is a surprisingly solid liberal: private investment and privatization (including energy sector), free trade, etc., etc. In a political spectrum that ranges from a national socialist (Lopez Obrador) to a Christian (Catholic) socialist (Vazquez Mota) Quadri, most definitely, stands out ideologically.

I know, but he seems to be the most sane, the most "alternative", attractive as a candidate. However, I may be wrong.

For the first time in a long time today's Milenio tracker is showing JVM (barely) ahead of AMLO:

Enrique Pena Nieto (PRI-PVEM) 46%
Josefina Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD-PT-MC) 25%
Gabriel Quadri (PANAL) 3%

I found a web called "adnpolitico" full of Mexican polls.

http://www.adnpolitico.com/encuestas/2012/06/19/consulta-mitofksy-da-157-puntos-de-ventaja-a-pena-nieto

Consulta Mitofsky (15-17 June) says: Peña Nieto (PRI) 44.4%; AMLO (PRD) 28.7%; Vázquez Mota (PAN) 24.3%; Quadri (PANAL) 2.3%.

Excelsior (13-14 June) puts Vázquez Mota in second place: PRI 42%; PAN 29%; PRD 27%.

Milenio (15-17 June): PRI 44.4%; PRD 27.1%; PAN 26%.

There are polls every day. No suspense except for the second place.

Oh, I was taking care of some family business (my father-in-law passed away) and didn't had time for the forum.
It seems that the Brazilian government position (and It is also a matter with the EU, Dilma had a bitter conversation with Merkel over this) is that many American and European industries are practicing dumping, to get rid of products made by their plants abroad. I'll try to find some comment from the economic area, when I have time.

When I hear the word "dumping" I usually want to shoot the speaker.

How I see the campaign so far


A relatively predictable campaign received a jolt in mid-May when
the strong favourite, Enrique Pena Nieto, faced a student
demonstration while visiting a private university in Mexico City,
where most of those enrolled come from wealthy families.  Pena
Nieto's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) reaction was to
describe the crowd as left-wing militants that did not belong
there.  A YouTube video showed 131 students displaying their
university identification to rebut this.  A support group from
private and public universities quickly developed into a strong
anti-Pena Nieto and PRI movement.
 
The movement changed campaign dynamics, significantly boosting
Lopez Obrador (popularly known as AMLO), of the centre-left Party
of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and other small parties.  AMLO
had been unable to overcome the image of bad loser in the 2006
election.  Until a few weeks ago, he seemed destined to finish
third, with Pena Nieto winning easily.

However, the student movement discourse echoed several claims AMLO
has made, notably the powerful political influence of
telecommunications giant, Televisa, and its close relationship
with the PRI. The movement quickly
evolved into being openly anti-Pena Nieto and surreptitiously
pro-AMLO.  It is plausible that many that had intended to vote for
AMLO were coy about it given his 2006 behaviour, and now state
their preference openly.
 
On the other hand, Josefina Vazquez Mota of the ruling
centre-right National Action Party (PAN) has conducted a
lacklustre campaign.  She failed to distance herself from
Calderon, increasingly unpopular due to the government offensive
against drug cartels.  Opinion
polls showed AMLO moving into second place, with Vazquez Mota
close behind and Pena Nieto losing some support.
 
This is among the most polarised presidential campaigns since
Mexico became a fully-fledged democracy in the 1990s:
--    In 1994 it was a contest between the PRI and PAN, with the
      PRD nominee behind throughout the campaign and getting a
      relatively small share of the vote.  The PRI retained the
      presidency.
 
--    In 2000 it was similar, but with the PAN winning the
      presidency.
 
--    The 2006 election saw a deeply unpopular PRI candidate, with
      the election again a two-horse race.  While Calderon won
      narrowly, the PRI vote plunged to a historic low.
 
Now, it is clearly a three-horse contest.  While he has lost some
terrain, Pena Nieto retains a commanding lead, which most recent
opinion polls put at 12-14 percentage points.  Unless
extraordinary events change campaign dynamics, the PRI should win
the presidency, though more narrowly than seemed likely a few
months ago.  Therefore, the possibility has increased of another
fragmented Congress, and continued political deadlock.

At least two factors recently have arrested AMLO's rise:
 
--    He started behaving like the frontrunner, claiming that
      there is a serious possibility of fraud against him.  He has
      refused to state that he would recognise defeat.  During the
      second and last presidential debate, on June 10, he said
      that there would be "no revenge" if he won -- reminding
      voters of past aggressive tactics.
 
--    Vazquez Mota was aggressive in the debate, particularly
      against AMLO, while Pena Nieto mostly ignored his opponents
      and presented himself as an efficient leader.
 
Therefore, Vazquez Mota has regained the initiative somewhat, with
expectations among supporters that she may retake second place in
opinion polls, while Pena Nieto performed better than expected.
The fourth candidate, Gabriel Quadri (of the ideologically
undefined New Alliance Party, PANAL) performed well, as expected
(he was the clear winner in the first debate), and continued
pushing a liberal economic and social agenda.  However, PANAL is
small and controlled by the leader of the National Union of
Teachers (SNTE), Elba Esther Gordillo.  Quadri at most should
obtain 5% of the vote.  Opinion polls after the debate show
Vazquez Mota and Pena Nieto increasing support marginally, AMLO
and Quadri stagnating and those undecided falling.
 
By July 1 neither AMLO nor Vazquez Mota is likely to be able to
claim credibly that they are clearly in second place and could
defeat Pena Nieto -- thus appealing to those considering voting
tactically against the PRI.
 
The 2000 and 2006 elections showed significant evidence of
tactical voting:
 
--    In 2006 one in five people that voted for PRI candidates for
      the Chamber of Deputies voted PRD or PAN for president, with
      most backing the former.  SNTE members, instructed by
      Gordillo, voted PAN for president and PANAL for Congress.
 
--    As a result, Lopez Obrador got nearly six percentage points
      of the national vote above PRD congressional candidates.
      Calderon's difference was 2.3 points, enough to secure the
      presidency -- increasing Gordillo's political weight  
 
--    In 2000 the anti-PRI vote went to the PAN's Vicente Fox, who
      was 4.3 percentage points above the party's candidates for
      federal deputies.  One of ten people that voted for PRD
      congressional candidates supported Fox instead of the
      party's presidential nominee, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas.
 
With AMLO and Vazquez Mota fighting strongly for second place,
tactical voting should not be as high as in 2006 or 2000.  Most
tactical voting should favour AMLO.  However, many PAN members are
as unenthusiastic about voting for the PRD as voters from that
party were about the PAN in 2000.  A tactical vote of 2-3
percentage points favouring AMLO seems conceivable -- not enough
to surmount the current Pena Nieto advantage.  Moreover, Pena
Nieto actively may be courting Gordillo so that SNTE members vote
tactically, boosting the PRI.  Therefore, a Pena Nieto victory
with a clean margin of 5-10 percentage points over AMLO seems
plausible, with Vazquez Mota a close third.

Prediction
PRI 38%
PRD 30%
PAN 29%
PANAL 3%

Source?


Why so?

Well, that's too bad. US tend to accuse the other states of "dumping" when free trade hurts some segment of their economy. The legal fight who followed made the economy of my region crash.

What source?

Accusations of dumping, normally, are the bullsh**t that protectionists use to justify restricting trade.

In 1994 Mexico wasn't a fully-fledged democracy. The electoral authorities were not yet independent, the original PRI candidate got killed under misterious circumstances, the PAN candidate was somehow "persuaded" to disappear after the debate he won, etc., etc. They didn't have to fake too much simply because PRI won due to the sympathy vote that arose from the murder. Still, the winner (Zedillo) himself would later call his own election "legitimate, but unequal".

You also misuse the word "polarized". Actually, compared to 2006 this one isn't polarized at all. In 2006 there was extreme polarization, almost mutual hatred, which disrupted the normal strategic cross-party support between PAN and PRD in Congressional races (whatever tactical voting there was was restricted to the presidential race, w/ PRI voters choosing between the front-runners). In 2012 it is a lot more fluid, with people willing to consider switching their vote: it's just that there is no reason to do so. The primary battle is for the second spot, not for the first - EPN is too far ahead. You will see a lot of strategic voting in other races though: much less bad blood this time around.

     June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico presidential front-runner
Enrique Pena Nieto led his nearest rival by 13 percentage points
in the last poll by Consulta Mitofsky before the election.
     Pena Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party had
38.4 percent support, from 37.6 percent last week, while Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party had 25.4
percent backing from 24.3 percent, Mitofsky said in a report
released today. Support for Josefina Vazquez Mota of the ruling
National Action Party was unchanged at 20.8 percent.
     Mexicans will cast their ballots on July 1 and the final
polls must be published by June 27, when campaigns officially
close. Lopez Obrador had begun to close the gap with the front-
runner earlier this month, although the latest polls show Pena
Nieto has maintained his lead of more than 10 percentage points.
     “There’s no question Pena Nieto is going to win,” said
Federico Estevez, a political science professor at the
Autonomous Institute of Technology of Mexico. “The fight is not
over the outcome, but over the amount of the lead.”
     A sampling of six other polls shows Pena Nieto leads by
about 15 percentage points, although undecided votes are not
included in the count, according to the Mexico City-based
Mitofsky.
     Lopez Obrador said in an interview with Radio Formula today
that a poll his campaign conducted giving him a lead of 3
percentage points “is going to widen.” He said other polls
showing Pena Nieto with a lead are “political propaganda.”



                     Congressional Majority



     Mitofsky calculated that the PRI would win a majority in
both houses of Congress, even under the worst-case scenario,
although it shows respondents’ backing for the PRI in Congress
is at its lowest since the campaign began, at 44.2 percent.
     The party needs 42.2 percent support to gain a majority,
according to Mitofsky. The poll’s margin of error is 3.1
percent.
     The Mitofsky survey shows that 30 percent of voters have
“a lot” of trust in the Federal Electoral Institute’s ability
to oversee the election, less than the 44 percent ahead of the
previous election in 2006.
     Mitofsky interviewed 1,000 registered voters from June 22
to June 24, and 13.6 percent of them did not specify support for
a candidate.

Too little too late. The cartool will be in charge for 6 years.

Outrage in Mexico as 'traitor' Fox backs PRI candidate

     June 27 (AFP) -- For Julio Rodriguez, who grills meat at a
busy sidewalk lunch stall, Mexican ex-president Vicente Fox is
guilty of "treason, towards his party and towards the nation."
     Fox, a member of the conservative National Action Party
(PAN), is calling on Mexicans to unite behind Enrique Pena
Nieto, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate
and front-runner in the July 1 presidential election.
     A lanky and affable rancher who was friends with US
president George W. Bush, Fox made history in 2000 when he was
elected president, ending 71 years of PRI rule in Mexico.
     "First he wanted to get the PRI out of power, and now he's
trying to put them back in again," Rodriguez said as he
arranged spice bottles for his Tuesday lunch customers.
     "The economy has to continue improving, and the only
economist in the race is Josefina," he said, referring to PAN
candidate Josefina Vasquez Mota, who is hoping to be Mexico's
first female president.
     Polls have her running a distant third, far behind Pena
Nieto and leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, of the Party of
the Democratic Revolution (PRD).
     "Only a miracle will allow that lady to win," Fox told
reporters recently.
     PAN members were especially outraged by a Fox interview
Sunday with Spain's El Pais in which he blasted President
Felipe Calderon, his successor and fellow party member.
     Under Calderon "there is a grave employment deficit," Fox
said. And in the war on drugs, "there have been innumerable
human rights violations."
     "I'm not calling for people to vote for the PRI, I'm
calling for people to unite around the front-runner, and the
winner is in sight," he told El Pais.
     "My loyalty is with democracy, with the people of Mexico."
     The PRI ran Mexico for 71 years through a combination of
patronage, corruption and ballot-box fraud until they were
ousted in 2000. Pena Nieto's opponents have argued that his
victory would mean a return to the bad old days.
     PAN spokesman Javier Lozano responded to Fox late Monday
with unusually harsh language, calling the former president a
"scoundrel," a "hypocrite," a "liar" and an "opportunist" for
turning his back on his party.
     He was "myopic" for not realizing that Europe's economic
woes contribute to Mexico's slowdown, and a "megalomaniac" for
comparing himself to Nelson Mandela, Winston Churchill and
Martin Luther King.
     President Calderon "has had to pick up the garbage from
previous years of irresponsible and cowardly government during
previous presidencies, including (Fox's)," Lozano said.
     "Everything seems to indicate that he sold out" to Pena
Nieto, Lozano said. "We have definitely lost him."
     In part because he joined the PAN as an adult, Fox has
been out of place among life-long party loyalists like
Calderon, so he is more open to speaking his mind, said
political scientist Nicolas Loza.
     "The joke was that Fox and not the PAN reached the
presidency in 2000," said Loza, who teaches at the FLACSO
graduate school.
     Fox has always been friendly to PRI members and is
especially bent on preventing Lopez Obrador -- whom he derides
as "Lopez Chavez," a reference to leftist Venezuelan leader
Hugo Chavez -- from reaching the presidency.
     "Fox's behavior is not totally out of the unusual given
the advances of Lopez Obrador," who is now second in the polls,
said Loza.
     Fox clashed with Lopez Obrador when the latter was mayor
of Mexico City and when the leftist politician brought the city
to a standstill with mass protests after narrowly losing the
2006 election.
     Internal bickering is nothing new for the PAN, Loza said,
pointing out that Calderon was not Fox's choice to succeed him,
just as Vazquez Mota was not Calderon's first choice as
presidential candidate.
     PAN loyalist Alejandro Flores, 27, squirmed in his seat at
a Mexico City party office when asked about Fox. "It was not
the right time or place to say such things," he said.
     Flores said he preferred to remember Fox for his role in
prying the PRI out of office after seven decades. "For me, Fox
will always have a place in our party," he said.

I'm trying to teach myself how to draw maps with Inkscape so I did some maps for the 2006 Mexican election because it was a very interesting one. I uploaded three maps showing PAN, PRD and PRI percentages at  state level, check my gallery and give me opinions, please. The map below shows the margin between Calderón and AMLO in every state at the last election. I´ll post some maps for the current elections when data are available.

()

Also I did this other using a base map available at Wikipedia showing the real PRI base of power: the states.

()

We are in the "reflection" period now. But the last poll by Reforma a couple of days ago showed EPN at 41% vs. AMLO at 31%. Interestingly, they also polled by broad geographic area. AMLO was ahead in the South and in in the Center - followed closely by EPN. In the West and in the North EPN was far ahead of the runner-up - and that runner up was JVM, w/ AMLO at third.

Let's see how it plays out.

Should be kept in mnid that not all PRI-governed states are the same. For instance, Zacatecas and Michoacan (BTW, your map is wrong - it's been retaken by PRI) have been under PRD control for years until recently (so was BCS, which is now held by PAN). Chihuahua, Queretaro, Yucatan, Nuevo Leon, San Luis Potosi have all had PANista governors, and Tlaxcala has been controlled by both PRD and PAN in the past. On the other hand, places like Tamaulipas, Coahuila, Durango, Tabasco, Campeche and a few others have never had a non-PRI governor in history.

A funny campaing news I've almost missed. At her final campaign rally JVM proposed to appoint Felipe Calderon her Attorney General. I can't even express on how many levels it is hilarious.

OK, ag, thanks for the correction. I've put Michoacán on PRI hands (editing the map is easy). Blame me for using a list of governors from Wikipedia. I took 2006 percentages from IFE. Also I know that PRD official colour is yellow, not red, and its symbol is the Aztec sun. If PRD is red in the map is for aesthetic reasons and for an easier ideological identification. So now there are only three southern states and the DF on PRD and allies side and a handful of states in North and Central Mexico governed by PAN. The PRI dominance is overwhelming.

I´ve read in El País that Macera, the PRD candidate, would be easily elected in DF. Mexico City is an island, of course. What about the other states?

I think that it wouldn't be a surprise an EPN landslide in Northern states. I suppose that PRD and PAN weakness in North and South Mexico respectively run against their chances.

You mean, who'd win the gubernatorials? PRI, mostly. They have a good chance of taking Jalisco - unless it goes to the MC candidate (actually, a rogue panista, I believe, who didn't get his party nomination and is running on the MC line, which in this case doesn't coincide w/ the PRD; he is No. 2 in most polls); PAN is almost certainly loosing the state. PAN is only safish in Guanajuato, which it has governed since 1991; PRD is ubersafe in DF (this is going to be a historic landslide: since Mexico City mayor's been elected nobody has ever got even 50%; Mancera is on track for 65%). I don't know what to expect in the PRD-governed Chiapas and PAN-governed Morelos. Pretty sure all other states on ballot the same day will stay w/ PRI (Tabasco, Yucatan, Nuevo Leon, etc.).

I found some polls for the gubernatorial races.

DF (Mexico City)/ Milenio: Mancera (PRD) 58%; Paredes (PRI) 17.9%; Miranda (PAN) 9.9%; Guerra (PANAL) 1.7%; None 12.6%. Percentages are "gross preferences".

Jalisco/ El Universal: Sandoval (PRI_PVEM) 39.9%; Alfaro (MC) 21.9%; Guzmán (PAN) 15.7%; Garza (PRD) 4.7%; Martínez (PANAL) 1.5%; None: 15.5%. Also gross preferences.

Morelos/ El Diario: Orihuela (PRI_PVEM_PANAL) 32%; Garrido (PRD_PT_MC) 32%; Rivera (PAN) 19%; Yáñez (PSD) 1%; None: 16%. Gross pref. The closest race by far.

Yucatán/ El Universal: Zapata (PRI_PVEM) 48%; Diaz (PAN) 23.5%; Villanueva (PRD_PT_MC) 6.4%; Guzmán (PANAL) 0.8%; None 21.3%. Gross pref.

For the Presidential Milenio-GEA ISA (25-27 June)  says:

Peña Nieto (PRI-PVEM) 39.5%; AMLO (PRD-PT-MC) 24.1%; Vázquez Mota (PAN) 18.9%; Quadri (PANAL) 1.8%; None: 15.7%. Also gross pref.

http://www.adnpolitico.com/encuestas

Can someone post the link to PREP so we can follow the results tomorrow.  When does the polls close?

Ah. I found it.
http://www.ife.org.mx/difusores.html

keep in mind that states and DF run their own elections, so for their PREPs look at the state election insitutes' websites.

How quickly do the results come in? IIRC it took a while last time but with EPN's projected margin in high single or low double digits surely they can project within a couple of hours?

Complete official results will be there Wednesday night :))

Tomorrow there are two counts - neither of them official. First, there will be a randomized sample of 7,500 polling booths (out of 143,000+), which will be analyzed using three different statistical approaches to give a rough prediction. At 11 PM CT, once the polls in Tijuana close, the head of the electoral commission will make a televised statement based, largely, on that. In parallel, there will be reporting of individual precinct results through PREP - this will, probably, get to something like 98% of all polls by late night, but a certain proportion of them will, certainly, not be reported - all sorts of technical hitches. The formal count will start on Wednesday morning and will, most likely, be finished by the end of the day.

To sum up, if the result is clear, it will be announced at 11 PM. If it is close, we'll have to wait till Wednesday night. And if it is very close, it will land in the electoral tribunal, and that would take weeks, if not months.

()

For comparison or something like that.

Voted at around 10:30 AM (Mexico City time). Pretty sizable line - even though no precinct may have more than 750 registered voters. So, turnout seems good - but a fairly strong rain started a couple of hours ago (much earlier in the day than is normal), so might affect turnout in DF. PRD observers notable in my "PANista" precinct.

Full disclosure: this time I was quite close to the straight PAN vote - went for PAN on 5 out of 6 ballots; voted for Mancera (PRD) for the city mayor.

Where can we find live results? Preferably something that automatically updates. :P

Hi all,
I've been intending to log in and contribute on this thread for month, but well, finally got to do it now.
You can watch live results on the sites provided by IFE:
http://www.ife.org.mx/difusores.html (http://www.ife.org.mx/difusores.html)

and Google is providing a cool page with maps with feed directly from IFE:
http://www.google.com.mx/elections/ed/mx/results (http://www.google.com.mx/elections/ed/mx/results)

Pretty much every Mexican newspaper/channel will have a link after 8 PM CT. They will all look the same and update at very similar rate: it's PREP, an official reporting system. You'd be able to see a scan of every single precinct (up to 750 voters) protocol as the night develops.

Milenio newspaper just gave the results of their exit poll in Federal District for the Mayor election (poll done by GEA-ISA).

Link in Spanish:
http://www.milenio.com/cdb/doc/noticias2011/cfcc5f12a8baea4b4ad5183a596fe728 (http://www.milenio.com/cdb/doc/noticias2011/cfcc5f12a8baea4b4ad5183a596fe728)

The candidate of the leftist alliance (PRD-PT-MC) Miguel Angel Mancera has 61% in the exit poll
Beatriz Paredes of PRI has 23%
Isabel Miranda of PAN has 14% and
Rosario Guerra of PANAL has 2%

The last tracking poll that Milenio had published on Wednesday had Mancera with almost 66%, Beatriz Paredes with 20.5%, Miranda with 11% and Rosario Guerra 1.8%

So while the result was as expected and Mancera won by a landslide, the margin was slightly closer than the last poll showed.

As I'm pretty sure has been discussed earlier on this thread, exit polls of state elections can be announced at the closing of the polls, in the case of Federal District it was at 6pm CST

Which states are the ones to watch?

I would watch in particular the 6 that also have governor elections: Federal District (Mayor), Chiapas, Yucatan, Morelos, Jalisco and Tabasco. I would be looking in the exit polls that are coming out now how the PRI is doing with respect to the latest polls. Take into account that four of those six states have a strong support for Lopez Obrador: Federal District, Chiapas, Morelos and Tabasco (his home state). In Yucatan the fight is between PRI and PAN as it would typically be in Jalisco, but this time around a third candidate supported by the left (apart of the PRD candidate) was polling a strong second behind PRI.

It looks like PRI flipped Chiapas


     July 1 (Bloomberg) -- The Institutional Revolutionary Party
is leading in governors’ races in three Mexican states, TV
Azteca said, citing exit polls.
     The PRI, as the party is known, is ahead in races in
Jalisco, Chiapas and Yucatan, the Mexico City-based network
reported, based on the surveys of voters at polling stations.
Contests in three other states are too close to call based on
the margin of error, TV Azteca said.

I forgot to include Guanajuato in the previous post! (it is 6 states plus the Federal District). Guanajuato is PAN's stronghold.

So, new exit polls have come out for the governor elections.
These are from El Universal newspaper:

Yucatan: PRI 58%  PAN 33%  PRD 8%  PANAL 1%  (PRI announced another exit poll by Parametria pollster that had PRI between 49 and 56%, PAN between 35 and 40% -- strange that the PRI announced poll is a bit closer than the newspaper one).

Chiapas: PRI-Green 58% PRD 23% PAN 12% and a local Chiapas party 7%  (TV Azteca network announced another exit poll by Mendoza Blanco pollster than gave PRI around 64%!)

Guanajuato: PAN 45%  PRI 37% PRD 16% others 2%

Morelos and Tabasco were declared too close to call by El Universal's exit poll.

These are big results for PRI in my opinion, since the margin in Chiapas is huge and their lose in Guanajuato relatively close.

The source is just El Universal newspaper main webpage.. results in the ticker:
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/noticias.html (http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/noticias.html)

yes, and in Jalisco, El Universal exit poll says:

PRI 44%
Citizen's Movement 33%
PAN 16%
PRD 4%
PANAL 2%

Looks like PRI was able to hold the challenge from the Citizen's Movement candidate (supported by Lopez Obrador)

Well if Tabasco is too close to call then that is not great for PRI since they currently hold it.  I guess it is expected since like you said that AMLO running might be helping PRD there.  I think when the PRI took Tabasco in 2006 it was not on the same voting date as the Prez election where AMLO could have helped the PRD candidate.  I guess positive for PRI is Morelos where it is currently held by PAN and PRI might be able to flip it.

Not only was Chiapas voting a month later in 2006, but Lopez Obrador wasn't even the only tabasqueno presidential candidate: PRI's Roberto Madrazo was an ex-governor of Tabasco.

Keep in mind, though. The PRD candidate in Tabasco until 2006 was a big local PRI honcho - the PRI candidate used to be his secretary :)

TV link:

aztecanoticias.com.mx/tvenvivo

     July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Mexican presidential candidate
Enrique Pena Nieto leads his rivals in voting today as he seeks
to return the once-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party to
power, according to an exit poll from GEA-ISA.
     Pena Nieto has 42 percent of the vote, leading Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party, who has
31 percent, and Josefina Vazquez Mota of the ruling National
Action Party, with 23 percent, according to Mexico City-based
polling company. GEA-ISA questioned 3,588 people and the poll
had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

For those of us who don't understand Spanish? :P

PENA NIETO TAKES 51.7% OF MEXICO VOTE IN PRELIMINARY COUNT:IFE
Of course this is based on a few hundred votes.

*MEXICO'S PRI WILL HAVE MAJORITY OF SENATE, VIDEGARAY SAYS
*PENA NIETO HAS WON MEXICAN ELECTION, VIDEGARAY SAYS
*PENA NIETO WON WITH MARGIN OF 5 TO 6 MILLION VOTES: VIDEGARAY

VIDEGARAY is General Coordinator of Nieto's campaign.

So what would the split be? Looks like an 8-9 point margin to me.

     July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Enrique Pena Nieto is ahead in
Mexico’s presidential vote today as he seeks to propel the once-
dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party back to power,
according to an exit poll from BGC, Ulises Beltran y Asociados.
     Pena Nieto has 40 percent of the vote, leading Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolutionary Party, with
32 percent, and Josefina Vazquez Mota of the ruling National
Action Party, with 25 percent, according to the survey of voters
at polling stations. The poll was released by BGC Excelsior.

I assume Mexican exit polls are just as trashy as their American counterparts, but I'd be surprised if EPN dropped below 40 when all is said and done.

Voter turnout in Quintana Roo is 203.3%. Um.........

Looks like PAN concedes.

     July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Josefina Vazquez Mota, the candidate
of the ruling National Action Party, said the early results of
voting in today’s election don’t favor her.
     Vazquez Mota made the comments in a televised speech in
Mexico City.

Computer problem, right?

The national exit poll says 42% EPN, 31% AMLO, 24% JVM, 3% Quadri

PREP can be found here:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/elecciones2012/IFE/

Yes, all the exit polls were consistent:

Milenio GEA-ISA: PRI 42%  PRD 31%  PAN 23%  PANAL 4%
TV Azteca:          PRI (39-42.7%) PRD (30.8-34.4%) PAN (22.1-25.7%) PANAL (2.1-3.1%)
Excelsior (BGC):  PRI 40%  PRD 32%  PAN 25% PANAL 3%
El Universal:        PRI 42%  PRD 31%  PAN 24% PANAL 3%

Looks like PAN getting around 28-29% of the vote in Prez, Senete, and Congerss rates.  Pretty consistent.  

http://www.prepchiapas2012.com/home_gobernador.cfm

is PREP for Chiapas. Just found it

The Green Party-PRI-PANAL candidate Manuel Velasco is winning in a landslide. He is only 31yo! His grandfather (who was a very prominent physician) was governor in the 1970s.

Very strange returns from Tamaulipas. First of all, they seem to be reporting faster then the rest. Second, JVM is ahead by a good margin there - which accounts for her second spot nationwide in PREP for the moment. This is a PRI stronghold, for whatever its worth. Perhaps, that one state got enough of PRI? Might be a sign for the next state elections? Still too early, of course.

Is Manuel Velasco from the Green Party.  So far he is getting 37% of the vote under the Green Line and only 19% of the vote under the PRI line.

Remember: this is not a real green party. It's just a convenient line.

I get that.  I was more asking about the preception of the PRI in Chiapas.  I wonder if this is case of the voting population having a positive impression of the candidate but does not support the party and voting for him under the Green Party line is a way of they saying to themselves "I did not vote for the PRI"

Not. It's just that this guy is nominated by PVEM, he is the member of that party, and PRI has agreed to give the Chiapas governorship to PVEM as part of the coalition deal. So, it's logical to vote for a PVEM guy on the PVEM line.

Quick question: why does the count take so long? 90 minutes in and barely 1% has been counted. Or will it speed up soon?

It will, but it will still be slow. The count is very decentralized: there are over 143,000 booths, each one has to count, prepare a lot of copies of the protocols and scan one of them into the reporting system. At each stage everything is monitored by god knows how many people. It's actually 3 and a a half hours since the polls closed in much of the country. The states that finished after that haven't yet reported anything. We will get an official declaration of the trend, based on a randomized sample of about 7500 booths in just over 2 hours (this count is going on separately). The official count is next Wednesday :)

An interesting aside. Remember the annulled municipal results in Morelia some months ago in Morelia? It's being rerun today. W/ almost 88% reporting, so far it is

PRI/PVEM 117,515
PAN/PANAL 111,251
PRD/PT/MC 26,788

It's still close, though, this time, it seems PRI may win without the fotofinish.

I hear networks are projecting Pena Nieto now... Idk what to make of this. Also the fact that PRI regained my Mexican home state Jalisco for the first time in 18 years. Wow.

It's been obvious for a long time now, so you may make whatever you want out of it :)

The CIRT (stands for the Association of Radio and Television Networks) commissioned a quick count to Consulta Mitofsky. The results are:

PRI 40.3%
PRD 31.8%
PAN 25.4%
PANAL 2.5%

I don't know if it has been discussed here before, but the quick count is based on real votes (as opposed to exit polls that are as their name says, polls). This quick count uses a sample of around 7,000 precincts from all over the country, which is supposed to make it representative of the total votes (taken into account mix of urban/rural, etc). The results of each precinct are posted in a sign on the doors of the precinct, so people can go and see their precinct results.
IFE will release its own quick count at 11:45pm CST.

And responding to a previous question, yes, the results are coming in pretty slowly.

In general, PAN is doing miserable today. But in the Northeast, that hasn't been its stronghold, it is doing remarkably well. I've already noted that it is winning hands-off in Tamaulipas (2 senate seats are extremely likely at this point, as well as a bunch of House seats pick-ups), it's ahead for a plurality in Nuevo Leon legislature, and seems to be holding Monterrey mayoralty. One bright spot in the generally horrid night.

The map at the moment looks very different from 2006 in the north. Lots of PRI flipping in the north from PAN in 2006 and some of the centrals that PRD took are also green. But the most interesting thing is that the southern states except Chiapas remain yellow. PAN lost so much ground it's insane. You could tell from Josefina's voice in her first speech that her party and not just her was screwed.

Funny how they did gain ground in the state elections in the North East though.

What is Pena Nieto like ?

Didn't read much about Mexico so far ...

I wonder of AMLO will try to claim fraud and start riots again.  Speaking of which, can we be sure that the PRD will dump him after this for someone more credible, since they'll need someone good for Mexico's sake to save the country from the threat of another PRI victory in 2017?  

Well, JVM comes third, whereas Calderon won, so this is the obvious swing. AMLO may even repeat his 2006 percentage, and may do better in some of his old strongholds. The interesting thing is the Northeast, but you have to look at the senate/hose elections. Back in 2006 and, especially, in 2009 PRI was superstrong there: PAN is on the upswing locally, despite the general fiasco.

I have a few friends from Jalisco, maybe I should ask them what they think about PRI.

What seems to be really bad news for PAN (besides Jalisco), is Baja California (Norte): really bad there for a party that has continuously governed the state since 1989. They have state elections there in just over a year - they'd better figure out what's gone wrong, or PRI will add this state to its crown.

Also Vazquez Mota seems to be taking Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas. Everything else...


Basically this

I grew up in Jalisco (though I was born NV) I'm stunned this is happening there considering how solid Jalisco *was for PAN*. What do I think of it? I'll just say I'm nervous.

*edit Sorry I was double tasking

One of the two precincts on my block (my wife's) has reported. Reliably PANista, even at the dark hour :)

Total number registered 467 voters
Turnout 358 (76.65%)
JVM 148
EPN 110 votes
AMLO 92 votes
Quadri 6 votes
write-in 0 vote
invalid 2 votes

actually, have to update: somehow the results changed in a few minutes, must have been an erroneous entry. still panista, but less resoundingly so.

2nd update: I originally confused the presidential results w/ the senate, originally, PANd did get over 50% for the senate, but JVM is substantially behind her party even here.

Pena Nieto seems to have won this by less than I expected him too in fact his advantage is in single digits. PRD kept most of their ground and can figure out how to expand that. PAN is a completely different story. They only kept 3 states out of their Northern territory for now. Ouch

IFE just announced the results of their quick count. Half hour earlier than expected.The results are:

PRI - Enrique Peña Nieto between 37.93 and 38.95%
PRD - López Obrador      between 30.90 and 31.86%
PAN - Vázquez Mota       between 25.10 and 26.03%
PANAL - Gabriel Quadri   between  2.27 and 2.57%

And President Calderon is just speaking live right now, congratulating Peña Nieto.

Keep in mind: much of that "Northern territory" was, really, PRI-land that Calderon "borrowed".  It is deceiving to look at 2006 presidential vote: PRI had given up on its candidate (Madrazo) early on. Lower-level races are much more indicative. Tamaulipas, Durango, Coahuila have never been governed by anybody but PRI, and Nuevo Leon and Chihuahua had returned to PRI fold after fairly short-lived PANista governments. The real shock is Jalisco and, possibly, Baja California (but that may be based on too few returns).

EPN lead is going to grow, most likely, if the exit polls are to be believed. The rural areas normally come in strongly for Mexico's GOP, eventually.

Well, whatever I may think of Pena Nieto, but this is the second democratic transition in Mexico, and that's, most definitely, a good thing. Congratulations to our new president.

So it's  a gated community?

No, just a few blocks in Mexico City. Not gated, no traffic restrictions, regular traffic jams all over. A mixture of private houses and taller buildings w/ apartments. Most definitely not poor, of course - upper middle class by Mexican standards (would have been middle class in the US).

Well, pity there is no gubernatorial election today in Nuevo Leon: there could have been a chance.

W/ almost everything reporting, so far, PAN gets 15 districts in the state congress, w/ 10 going to PRI and 1 to PANAL (there are also PR seats, so I am not certain if they get a majority, but they may). PAN gets 52% for Monterrey mayor (against 34% for PRI) and over 60% for the mayors in the populous suburbs of San Nicolas and San Pedro. At least some part of the country where the right is reviving :)

Well, everyone has accepted the result, it seems - except for one person. AMLO says, that he will "wait for the final count".

Of course.

He meant, till the official count on Wednesday.

Looking at the results so far, I think it is fair to say that Peña Nieto has won:
Chihuahua, Durango, Michoacan, Sinaloa and Zacatecas.
López Obrador has won Federal District and his home state of Tabasco.
Josefina Vazquez Mota has won Nuevo Leon.
And we would be able to call very soon Oaxaca for Lopez Obrador and Tamaulipas for Josefina.

Given that we are in the US Election Atlas, I always like to make the imaginary exercise of what would happen if Mexico also had the US electoral college system. In Mexico's case, the number of federal districts is 300, so the winner would need 151 electoral votes.
Given the states that I just called, Peña Nieto would have 37ev, Lopez Obrador 33 and Josefina 12.

If the current trend in each of the other states hold, Peña Nieto would end up with 163ev, Lopez Obrador 103, and Josefina 34.

Don't forget the Senate :) And in Mexico each state has 3 senators, so you should add another 96 electoral votes :)

You are correct! So the electoral college would be 396 instead of 300, with the majority being 199.

Peña Nieto would have right no2 52, López obrador 39, Josefina 15
And with the current trend, Peña Nieto would win with 220ev, López Obrador 133ev and Josefina 43ev.

What are the trends in each state anyway?

Just based on the PREP results. You can look at them graphically on the Google election page, I'll post the link again here.
It is quite fun to click on each state and see the results by district and the % of votes in (you can play you are a Mexican John King in your imagination).
I just saw that it is almost sure Josefina Vazquez Mota is going to win Tamaulipas but that Guanajuato is still too close to call for example, given where the results are coming in (the districts in which Josefina is winning are almost 60% reported (except one) while the Peña Nieto ones are in around 45% reported).

http://www.google.com.mx/elections/ed/mx/results (http://www.google.com.mx/elections/ed/mx/results)

I'm aware of the...unique situation in Chiapas (if it is related to that; if it's not feel free to correct me) but what makes Yucatan so different to the rest of southern Mexico? I believe it voted for Calderon as well.

I will say election nights in Mexico would be funner with EV's and the American way. It was just so boring to see the race get called like that.

It's a waste of time, isn't it? The margin between EPN and AMLO is lower than expected but it will grow anyway. Now the PREP figures say that EPN has 36.8% of vote and AMLO 33.2%.

It's morning here. I took a look at some gubernatorials. Chiapas seems to be a PRI-PVEM-NA landslide (PRD is polling only 17.1%). In Jalisco (PREP 85.16%) PRI is ahead with 39.5% followed by MC (32.65%) and PAN (20.5%). In Morelos the PRD lead alliance is ahead with 43.2% followed by PRI and allies with 35.3% and by PAN with only a 14.6%. In Tabasco PRD and allies seem to be slightly ahead of PRI. No surprises in DF.

At least, Mancera won by a landslide, as expected. He may be a good mayor... Maybe he should run for President in 2017.

With 79% counted, and after I normalize againist the null votes it is
PRI      38.23
PRD     33.42
PAN     25.98
PANAL   2.43

I had predicted
PRI      38
PRD     30
PAN     29
PANAL   3


In the Senete and House votes after I normalize out the null votes it is so far

Senete
PRI            38.30
PRD           29.61
PAN           27.91
PANAL         4.01

House
PRI           39.17
PRD          29.08
PAN          27.23
PANAL        4.38

ALMO for sure ran ahead of PRD and PRI got less than polls had expected.  It seems that this is a result of anti-PRI tactical voting from PAN and independent/PANAL voters which benfited ALMO.  At the start of the campaign this was not expected as the thinking was a pro-PRI anti-ALMO tactical voting would take place.  This did seem to take place but it also seems that anti-PRI tactical voting took place as well.  Both trends seems to have hurt PAN.  I took this anti-PRI tactical voting into account in my prediction but I seems to have unestimated it.  I was right in predicting 4% for PANAL in the Prez vote in the sense that the PANAL base does seem to be 4% (looking at the Senete and House votes) but I failed to take into account correctly tactical voting by PANAL supporters.

tactical voting?

Also PAN voting AMLO....nope.

I agree this does not fit conventional thinking, but how else can we explain AMLO running ahead of PRD vote for Senate and House.  It had to come from somewhere.  One could argue that PRI voters voted for AMLO but why would they do that when everyone knows PRI will win (unlike in 2006)

Actually, to a degree feasible. PAN and PRD always tactically vote for each other. Of course, AMLO being AMLO suppresses that: Ebrard could have one that way.

There are PRD and PAN voters who would never under any circumstances vote for the other, but there are also tactical anti-PRI voters who are perfectly ready to. Both parties' bases are broad, after all, and not everybody within them is alike.

It's undeniable that AMLO performed well and he's a pretty good campaigner but looking at the 5% margin I wonder how Ebrard performance would have been.

It's a bit complex trying to guess how went the vote transfers. It's a too big country and there are too many local factors in Legislatives and Gubernatorials.

Looking at the vote share of the PRI-Green alliance in the Congress vote and knowing the 42% rule it is unlikely PRI-Green alliance will get a majority in the Congress let alone PRI alone.  Also PRI-Green alliance underperformed relative to 2009 this time around for the Congress.  I would say overall, PRI has underperformed polls in this election.

Weird regional results. Anybody want to take a stab at some explanations?

Tamaulipas for JVM, along with Nuevo Leon (fair enough), Guanajuato (well, obviously) and Veracruz... what's up with the first and last state on this list?

Priista landslide in Zacatecas: isn't this a PRD stronghold normally?

Baja California seems sucky both for PAN (in the north) and PRD (in the south)

On the other, aren't those some pretty strong PRD performances in Tabasco (even though Madrazo probably had a boost there in 2006), Oaxaca and Puebla?

It seems like as the vote count continues, ALMO is losing vote share and Nieto is gaining vote share.

Yes, there are some interesting results. My guess is that voters in Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon have punished very incompetent PRI governors (in terms of their fight against organized crime); the last time I saw polls there, President Calderon is very popular and there's a high approval rating for the presence of the military in public safety tasks there. In the local elections in Nuevo Leon, PAN is also getting very good results (even though PAN has its share of corruption scandals there). Peña Nieto is getting a very thin victory in Coahuila, another of PRI strongholds, but with a very prominently corrupt former governor.

It has been a big surprise for me that PAN did so badly in Baja California, a state that as AG mentioned, has been governed by PAN since 1989. Vazquez Mota is running third there!

Zacatecas used to be one of PRI's strongest states until they lost the governorship in 1998 (PRI still won Zacatecas in 2000 over Vicente Fox). But PRI recovered the governorship from PRD in 2010 and seems like the state might be going back to PRI.

Yes, since Madrazo was also from Tabasco, he got around 38% in 2006 (compared to Peña Nieto's 31% with 84% votes counted). And while Lopez Obrador is doing better than in 2006, he's not much above.. he got about 58% in 2006 and is scoring 60% right now.

My understanding is that in Mexico politics there is an relative obsession with the total number of votes.  With that in mind it seems that Nieto will break the all time record of number of votes set back in 1994 by Zedillo of the PRI who got 17.18 million votes.  Nieto is on track to hit almost 19 million.

The case of Baja California is very interesting.
In the Presidential Election the results so far (86% counted):

PRI 36.54%
PRD 31.29%
PAN 27.52%!
PANAL 2.84%

But look at the Senate vote so far:

PAN 31.95%
PRD 26.26%
PRI  25.90%
Green 3.95%
PANAL 3.92%

And for House:

PRI is ahead in 7 of 8 districts and PAN in 1
PRI 38.29%
PAN 29.65%
PRD 24.79%
PANAL 4.64%

People split their vote all over the place in Baja California.

Ebrard could have won. He might have done worse than AMLO in places like Guanajuato, where PANistas are religious (Ebrard is the most anti-clerical of major Mexican politicians - it's very obvious he doesn't much care about the Church) - but it's not like AMLO has gotten many votes from that set, anyway. Ebrard would have done far better then AMLO in other places, though. AMLO is running nearly 11 points below Mancera in DF (52.77% vs. 63.68% so far) - this is just one indication. I am pretty sure Ebrard would have done better than Mancera - Mancera is largely unknown, it's a proxi vote for Ebrard, anyway. Just compare my own booth (yesterday I reported my wife's, mine is even more panista):

President:
JVM (PAN) 185
AMLO (PRD/PT/MC) 86
EPN (PRI/PVEM) 84
Quadri (PANAL) 2
write-ins 1
invalid  7
Total 365 (turnout 77.99%)

Mayor
Mancera (PRD/PT/MC) 165
Miranda Wallace (PAN) 111
Paredes (PRI/PVEM) 74
Guerrra (PANAL) 2
invalid  10
Total 362

I think that's suggestive enough.

With roughly 92% of the votes counted, after normalizing out the null votes

For Prez
PRI         38.83
PRD        32.62
PAN        26.08
PANAL      2.38

For Senate
PRI         38.91
PRD        29.08
PAN        27.80
PANAL      3.94  

For Congress
PRI         39.71
PRD        28.56
PAN        27.28
PANAL      4.31

Well, it looks like only 2 out of 6 ballots I cast yesterday were for a winner :(

One was, obviously, Mancera - but that's obvious. The other was, surprizingly, for the city council. Of the 40 FPTP seats PRD is taking 38, it seems, and PAN is ahead in 2 (w/ one of those beeing too close to call). My district is the only semi-safe PAN district in the entire city at this point: district XX of the city council

PAN 53,456 votes
PRD/PT/MC 47,562 votes
PRI/PVEM 27,658 votes
PANAL 3,141 votes
invalid 5,272 votes (for city council races a lot of people, probably, simply cast blanks)

This is Mexico's archetypal middle class land: western Benito Juarez and northeastern Alvaro Obregon boroughs. No, it's not a giant gated community :)

Just to show the proxi Ebrard (i.e., Mancera) vote in the same district:

Mancera (PRD/PT/MC) 76,242 votes
Miranda Wallace (PAN) 31,365 votes
Paredes (PRI/PVEM) 26,203 votes
PANAL 1,027 votes
invalid 2,235 votes

I have some questions on seat allocation for the senate

So is it true that for each state or federal district, the party with highest vote gets 2 senators and the second place party gets one ?

For the 32 national senators-at-large, is that allocated based on total vote or do they break it down within each circunscripción? My understanding is they do it for the country as a whole.  And is there something a 8% or 42% rule like they do in the Congress at large seat allocation? My understandings is there is no such rule. 

It seems the alliance between PRI and Greens (PVEM) is incomplete.  It only held in 10 out of 32 states for the senate and 199 out of 300 seats in Congress.  Looking over the results it seems the lack of an alliance cost PRI/PVEM 6 first place finishes in the Senete and a couple of dozen FTFP seats in the Congress.

Yes: 2 for winner, 1 for first loser, 32 at large PR. I believe there is a proportionality rule, but I'd have to check it out.

Any links for info on the congressional elections? I'm a bit more interested in that since the presidential election was actually pretty boring.

Same PREP. Just look for senadores and diputados.

Looking over the Prez vote results in different states, it seems Baja California votes shares of the 4 parities came the closest to mimicing the national vote shares.  This is very interesting since based on what I know Baja California should be a PAN stronghold but in this election it seems to be trending away from PAN.

Is gated community an unfeasible concept in Mexico because many of the rich have cartel money?

nice showing for AMLO.  2018?

Wonderful showing: 4 points below his losing bid 6 years ago. In another 6 years he is on track to get a whole of 27%. Back then he lost by 250 thousand votes. Now it is 3 million 250 thousand (and ticking). Had he not run, Ebrard could well have won - he, really, is responsible for getting PRI back in power.

Actually, I don't see many scenarios in which he gets another PRD nomination: they really didn't want him this time (he was only nominated, because he was certain to run on the PT line, anyway). No, if he behaves, he will be a "moral leader", taking part in fuzzy political geezers' reunions.

Is gated community an unfeasible concept in Mexico because many of the rich have cartel money?
[/quote]

What? Of course, gated communities are feasible here. There are as many as you'd like: for the rich, for the middle class, and even for the not so middle-class. I would never live in one, though. I like normal cities.

As for drugs - the mobsters are few and far between, and the ones that are wealthy don't really show their colors where they live. In Sinaloa, they say, things have always been different, but in Mexico City the first time you'd know your neighbor is a mobster is after he is arrested or killed - most likely, you'd never see one in your life.

The final PREP result (w/ 98.95% reporting)

EPN (PRI/PVEM) 18,727,398 votes 38.15%
AMLO (PRD/PT/MC) 15,535,117 votes 31.64%
JVM (PAN) 12,473,106 votes, 25.40%
Quadri (PANAL) 1,129,108 votes, 2.30%

write-ins 31,660 votes
invalid 1,191,057 votes
total turnout  49,087,446 votes (63.14%)

official count wednesday

Is this PREP result the final? I was waiting until the 100% was reported.

Puebla and Veracruz are the states with closest result. In Puebla AMLO is 0.12% ahead of EPN; in Veracruz EPN (33.65%) is only 0.02% ahead of JVM (33.63%), AMLO is 3rd with 28.9%.

Chiapas has elected the first "green" governor in History, Manuel Velasco (PVEM). Of course the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico is far away of being an actual environmentalist party. He is endorsed by PRI and PANAL. The result was a landslide: PRI-PVEM-PANAL aggregate is 63.4%; PRD-PT-MC won 17.6% of the vote and PAN 9.1%.

In Jalisco the PREP result (91.1% reporting) is PRI-PVEM 38.8%; MC 34.1%; PAN 19.9%; PRD 3.4%. Major defeat for PAN.

Morelos is the other PANista lost state. It's on PRD side now. PRD-PT-MC 43.3%; PRI-PVEM-PANAL 34.7%; PAN 15.1%.

PRI loses Tabasco to PRD, PAN holds Guanajuato, Yucatán is still a solid PRIista state and in Mexico City (Distrito Federal) Mancera won a landslide. So the gubernatorial map now is:

()

French news are reporting than AMLO decided to repeat its 2006 show and to say than the election is fraudulent and marred by irregularities.

I can't understand AMLO's strategy. It's pretty obvious that PRI guys are not pure and crystal water, you have all that media scandals, presumed payments and so on, but putting all the electoral process under challenge when 690 international observers have reported nothing...

Here you are, Ken and Barbie:

 ()

So, who will EPN prefer to work with in a divided legislature to get his agenda passed?

PAN? After all, he wants to allow private shareholding in PEMEX, partial deregulation of the labour market, tax reform, etc. Won't believe any of that till it happens.

Anyone else noticed the rather striking similarity in parts of Mexico between support for EPN and areas controlled by those charmers in the Sinaloa Cartel?


Force of habit.

Yes, of course, but if you have paid atention to The Guardian's scoop about Peña Nieto, Televisa and that presumptive and orchestrated campaign against him in 2006 maybe you'll understand his paranoia. I regard him as old-fashioned, stubborn and lacking of self-criticism but not as an evil agent. Anyway I'll never understand him and if I were Mexican I'd be more comfortable with Ebrard or another guy.

Map for the winner candidates, preliminary results. Caution: Puebla and Veracruz states are too close to say and the winner candidate may change with the official results. Vote percentages, not margins

()

EPN have won 21 states. His best performances are at Zacatecas (above 50%), Sinaloa, Chiapas or Durango. AMLO won 8 (included DF) and polled better at his home state of Tabasco (59%) and in Mexico City (52%; 6 points below of 2006), he also did very well in Guerrero (Acapulco!). JVM gained three states, the PANista stronghold of Guanajuato and Nuevo León and Tamaulipas in the north.  

Whats up with Chiapas? I thought that would have voted for the crazy man.

They voted for the crazy man, EPN.

()

No, he is the stupid man, AMLO is the crazy man.

All Romans are crazy, the Gaul village is at Selva Lacandona (Chiapas). This time it seems that Chiapanecos got tired of PRD and went again into the arms of PRI (and PVEM). As far as I know PRI was very strong in Chiapas historically.

EPN isn't crazy, just thicker than a slab of concrete.

There are many things you can say about Pena Nieto, but "crazy" isn't one of them.

PREP results are never final, nor do they ever reach 100%.  The official count starts on Wednesday and, in theory, can take up to till the end of the week (though they used to finish the same day, but it seems they will be doin an unusually detailed recount).

PREP is not the legal count. The way it works, poll workers send  one copy of the protocol to be scanned into PREP, while the official copy is sealed w/ the ballot box. As there are so many small polling booths (over 143,000) w/ poll workers doing it just once, when called up fo this duty by lottery, sometimes all sorts of mistakes happen. The most common mistake is to seal the PREP copy of the protocol w/ the ballot box as well - in which case, obviously, it doesn't get into PREP. On the official count date the sealed packages are opened, and the official protocols are counted. In case of any inconsistencies (and now also sometimes if there are none) they also recount the ballots.

It is the faith-based strategy. He believes that everybody, but a small minority of swindlers and scoundrels, shares the self-evident view of himself as the Messiah. So, when the results don't reflect that, he goes on the crusade against the results.

No. Can't see that even after you point it out.

Did they publish the composition of Congress, including the PR seats in both chambers? Or is there a simple way to guess them? I don't want to delay my blog post for too long because they're lagers.

Re: Chiapas. It's amusing how the PVEM's victory in the gubernatorial race had an effect on other races: 19.2% for Ken Barbie on the PVEM line, 3 house seats for PVEM candidates, 24.8% for the PVEM line on the PRI-PVEM senatorial slate. Was the PVEM strong in Chiapas beforehand or is this a new development? The PVEM has always fascinated me as a party.

Thanks for the excellent maps!! (and thanks to Shibboleth as well).

Veracruz and Puebla are indeed extremely close, and as you pointed out, they could flip once the official numbers come in and recounts done. If we had an electoral vote system this would be getting all the attention, alas is not relevant in Mexico (although it certainly is for us Atlasians).

Looks like PRI was able to win back two states that were traditionally very strong for them, Zacatecas and Chiapas, and that had been in hands of PRD for two consecutive elections (PRI won the governorship of Zacatecas back in 2010 and now they won the presidential vote) - but they have also lost two of other strongholds: Oaxaca and Puebla (both governorships in 2010 to an alliance of PAN-PRD (the nominal governor of Oaxaca is from PRD and Puebla from PAN) and now losing the presidential election. So people just exercising their power to vote out bad governments.

BTW, having read and enjoyed Asterix the Gaul since I was a pretty young, I object your characterization of the Selva Lacandona as where the Gaul Village is!!! ;)  Although, thinking more about it, I might be considered more like a Roman... :/ .. hmm.. my real name in any case would make me appear in at least a couple of the book titles representing Rome, ha.

Each newspaper I've seen today has had different composition for the House and for the Senate. One thing seems to be certain, though: no PRI majority in either, not even w/ PVEM included. They seem to be losing about 20 seats in the House as compared to their 2009 results. Even if PANAL decides to support them, it seems there wouldn't be a majority in either chamber. Obviously, big gains in the Senate - but that had been elected in 2006. PRD/PT/MC alliance will be the second-largest group in the House, though each party's faction separately will be smaller than that of PAN. PAN will stay the second-largest party in the Senate. But exact numbers will have to wait the official count in any case. In Baja California, for instance, in the race for the second place in the Senate election, which will determine the identity of the third senator from the state, the difference between PRD and PRI is something like 200 votes.

Looks like the official count won't be there till Thursday, at least (till Saturday for the Congress). The new law says that in ever district where the difference between top two candidates is under 1% there must be a total, ballot by ballot recount. There are 19 such districts in the presidential race and 12 each in the House and Senate. I can see why do the recount in the House, by the rest beats me. If anything, I'd expect more irregularities in districts w/ bigger difference, not the smaller difference: these are bound to be the ones w/ minimal presence of the loosers.

Lopez Obrador, obviously, wants the full recount: 300 districts, 143,000 precincts.

Post is around 95% trolling ;D

Wow, another royal family in Chiapas! Manuel Velasco Coello, the Governor elected is engaged with Anahí, a well known telenovela actress:

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()

This "green phenomenon" in Chiapas seems to be very interesting, I'm clueless about it but in the 2006 Gubernatorial PAN and PANAL endorsed the PRI-PVEM candidate against PRD. Definitely the Gaul village is not at Tuxtla Gutiérrez.

More soap opera, EPN and family:

()

By the way thanks for the explanation about the counting system, ag. I realized later that PREP was ended with 98.95% reported.

Edit: I was in a hurry when I posted this morning (GMT). Velasco and Anahí are not exactly engaged: they have a romance according to Proceso.

If EPN doesn't fail, will Velasco Coello stand for Presidency in 2018 as a strong candidate? Ebrard will have a hard time to win. In politics, 6 years are an eternity!

They've started the count. IFE has left it up to the district councils (300 of those) to decide if to do a full recount or not. It will take a while. For the moment, 5.1% of the polls have been formally counted (7,301 of them out of 143,115 reporting; 3 were never installed, 14 of the installed are missing). The result for the moment is:

EPN 40.98%
AMLO 28.07%
JVM 26.34%
Quadri 2.15%

But it's only 1.35 mln. votes so far - many of the officially counted booths are tiny.

15% of precincts reporting (just over 4.5 mln. votes - less then 10% of what it is going to be)

EPN 39.89%
AMLO 29.30%
JVM 26.21%
Quadri 2.15%

So far, EPN advantage over AMLO is just under half a million votes.

Chiapas governor? The nation's poorest state, zero visibility nationwide and huge potential for corruption scandals. Successful candidates come from Mexico City and vicinity. For somebody like that, the route to nomination lies through the federal cabinet.

6 years is a long time. But besides Ebrard we'll also have Mancera :)

W/ 30% of precincts (43,555 of them) tabulated (around 8.9 million votes) it is
EPN 39.20%
AMLO 30.20%
JVM 25.94%
Quadri 2.21%

But they will be doing a full recount of 78,000 precincts - over 54%. So, this is not going to be fast.

Reuploaded the map of the Preliminary Results. An error occured and the Chiapas-Veracruz border appeared with a strange shape. What a coincidence. Sorry for the inconveniences.

My "hero" of the moment, Manuel Velasco Coello, has an entry in Wikipedia (only Spanish version) but its content is mainly propagandistic. A few data: Born in 1980 (aged 32) in Tuxtla Gutiérrez, the Chiapas State Capital. Grandson of a neurologist. Local backbencher in 2001 and Federal MP in 2003. Coordinator of PVEM´s parliamentary group. Elected Senator for Chiapas in 2006 under the banner of PRI-PVEM alliance. His nickname is "Güero" and has been elected Governor of Chiapas with 68% of the vote (50% of margin over PRD´s candidate!). Isn't he a prodigy?

I think Velasco's grandfather was a PRI governor in the state in the 1970s.

Yes, you are right. The neurologist, Manuel Velasco Suárez, was Governor of Chiapas between 1970 and 1976. Thank you.

Re-uploaded too AMLO and Calderón maps for 2006. Maybe, I'll post them later for comparative purposes.

#Yosoy132 does not recognise the election result.  A spokesperson read a memorandum at UNAM University in Mexico City. Their allegations are that the electoral process was "stuffy in origin" (maybe the adjective does not fit, the original word is "viciado"). They alleged state violence, vote buying, rigged polls and media manipulation.  Irregularities occured not only in the voting day or in the electoral campaign "it was a process grouted years ago by the factic powers, national and foreign, violating national sovereignty, that pretends to guarantee neoliberal structural reforms" in labour, energy, security and fiscality. #Yosoy132 rejects "the process of imposition" of Peña Nieto as President of Mexico.

Link (in Spanish)

http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/05/mexico/1341464347_979388.html

The Guardian has also some information: "Claims of dirty tricks cast shadow over Peña Nieto's Victory"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/04/mexico-elections-shadow-pena-nieto

They detail some of the allegations, per example:


This is going to be entertaining.



 

some of the yosoy132 groups have long been uncomfortable with this stuff. It will be a smaller radical group, keeping the name, going nuts. If they stick to manifestations, it's ok: somebody is always demonstrating here. Hopefully, they don't gi violent.

#Yosoy132 has certain similarities to the Spanish Indignados. One of the main characteristics of these movements is heterogeneity. So, perhaps you are right regarding the authors of that memorandum as a small radical group, in fact #Yosoy132 and Indignados are the aggregation of many small groups and individuals.

I have not a conclusive opinion about the electoral process. It seems clear that Peña Nieto has won and this margin of 3 million of voters is higher than the alleged 1 million of buyed votes. On the other hand all those allegations about the pre-paid cards, media bias and abbusive PRI campaign spending seem to be more than hypothetical. Unfortunately those irregularities are still a part of the landscape and demonstrations in these cases are justified. Anyway AMLO is commiting a mistake if he goes in the same way of 2006.

By the way I've read an interview with EPN, you can check El Pais if you are interested. He expressed himself in moderate and consensual terms, I found his answers a bit hollow too. The lacking of a parlamentary majority is now regarded as a challenge and an opportunity (obvious speech).

I read the interview, too. I found EPN silly, usually repeating the same words. He likes to say "falacia".

http://consulta.mx/web/images/eleccionesmexicopdf/20120701_Perfil_Votante.pdf - voters' profile.

Interesting:
JVM electorate isn't more urban than that of EPN (it's strange for me).

Quadri's voters are very young and (especially notable) very well educated. Is that because of his liberal rhetoric or because for him vote mostly SNTE members?

Apart from Quadri, the youngest is AMLO's electorate while the best educated are JVM's voters. Nevertheless EPN won in all age and education groups.

According to BBC World, with almost every vote counted (99.3%):

EPN 38.2%; AMLO 31.56%; JVM 25.42%

()

Looking at the breakdown of the Senate and Congress seats at
http://www.redpolitica.mx/congreso/gamboa-camacho-gil-y-manlio-van-al-congreso

Revealed something interesting

For the Senete, the normalized vote share are
PRI/PVEM     39.16
PRD             28.94
PAN             27.83

For the Congress, the normalized vote share are
PRI/PVEM     39.93
PRD             28.40
PAN             27.23

Yet the seat breakdown are
Senate
PRI/PVEM      62
PRD              27
PAN              38

Congress     240
PRD            125
PAN            116

Note that PRD beat PAN by about the same margin in vote share in both Houses but fell far behind PAN
terms of seat count for the Senete at the same time begin significantly ahead of PAN in seat for Congress.

I looked into why this is.  It really comes down to two effects.  One, PRD vote is much more concentrated in DF and other states in the South where the number of states are few but have greater population, while PAN is weak in the South and strong in the North where the states are many but contain fewer population.  Since Senete seats are driven by 3 seats to each state, PRD suffers relatively.  Another effect is the result of breakdowns in PRI PVEM in terms of alliances.  PRI and PVEM only had an alliance in 10 out of the 32 states but was able to have an alliance in 199 out of 300 House seats.  Split for sure cost PRI PVEM.  Out of the 10 states where they had an alliance it won 8 out of 10.  Out of the 22 states where their splot was split, they had won 10 out of 22.  The PRI PVEM vote split cost it 7 seats.  PRI PVEM, had their votes been combined,  could have come in first in AGUASCALIENTES, COAHUILA, QUERÉTARO, SAN LUIS POTOSÍ, and YUCATÁN.  PRI PVEM could have place second instead of third in BAJA CALIFORNIA and TLAXCALA had their votes been combined.  In six cases, PAN benifited by having an extra seat at the expense of PRI PVEM and in BAJA CALIFORNIA the PRI PVEM seat was lost to PRD.  This pushed up the seats of PAN and opened an even greater gap with PRD.

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IFE results are out.  My FPTP numbers are from PREP and from final results I infered the at large seats.

Congress
PRI+     240 = 177 (FPTP)  + 63 (at large)
PRD+    136 =   70 (FPTP)  + 66 (at large)
PAN+    114 =   53 (FPTP)  + 61 (at large)
PANAL    10 =    0  (FTPT) + 10 (at large)

Senete
PRI+      61 = (18*2)(first place*2)+12(second place) + 13( at large)
PRD+     28 = (6*2) (first place *2)+ 7(second place) + 9 (at large)
PAN      38 = (8*2)(first place*2) + 13(second place) + 9 (at large)
PANAL    1 = 1 (at large)

Using the 8% rule, 240 for PRI+ seems to make sense. PREP has PRI vote share in Congress to be 31.87% and PVEM to be 6.08%.  Null vote was 4.88% and parties less that 3% was .01%. So (31.87+6.08)/(1-.0488-.001)= 39.94% + 8% = 47.94%.  240/500 = 48% so that matches.

For Senate it seems they just did a straight up distribution of at large seats based on vote share. For senate there was 5.59% null vote and .01% votes for parites that came below 3%.  So normalized vote share for at large would be
PRI+   (31.18+5.72)/(1-.0559-.001) = 39.13% *32 = 12.5
PRD+ (18.71+4.62+4.01)/(1-.0559-.001) = 28.99% *32 = 9.3
PAN  (26.34)/(1-.0559-.001) = 27.93% *32  = 8.9

As I mentioned before, PRI and PVEM not having alliances in 22 out of the 32 states cost it a Senete majority.  Had they been allied in all 32 states and vote transfer is perfect (I agree that this is a bold assumption), then PRI+ would have 7 more Senete seats (5 from PAN and 2 from PRD+)

See

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/862243.html

For some reason PRI/PVEM got 251 out of 500 seats in the new Congress.  Based on the 8% rule I did not think this makes sense as PRI/PVEM did not get 42% of the vote.  I assume it had to do with the allocation of FPTP seats between PRI and PVEM.  It could be a lot of them got assigned to PVEM leaving PRI getting a less of them and then when the 8% rule got applied to PRI it was able to get more at large seats, giving PRI+PVEM 251 seats.

In fact, according with the news that you linked, PRI had 207 seats and PVEM 33, totalling 240. A seat in Toluca state was in dispute. This seat finally went to PRI after the judge pronounced his sentence. So PRI-PVEM are now in 241. Adding the 10 seats of the New Alliance Party (PANAL), EPN could count with the majority in the Mexican Congress.

The courts have, finally, validated the presidential election. Lopez Obrador, predictably, has called for civil disobedience "even if they call me mad".

Yes, w/ PANAL they'd have the majority in the Chamber, but w/ a slight extra quirk. The Toluca seat going to PRI, rather than PRD, meant that PRI got hit by the 8% rule, so one of its PR seats will go to PVEM. Still 251, if you include PANAL. But there is no majority in the Senate.

BTW, Manuel Bartlett will coordinate the Senate faction of PT :))