Talk Elections

2,847,494 total registered voters

1,411,035 (49.5%) Democrats
   763,975 (26.8%) Republicans
   672,484 (23.6%) Independents

Poll closing time: 8 PM

http://electionresults.sos.la.gov/graphical

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_state/LA_Governor_1022.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/LA_Governor_1022.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Is it too early to call it for Jindal? Or do we have to actually wait for the polls to close?

What's up with all the "nicknames" on the SOS site?

Now one analyst has already called it. Exit polls from early voting are projecting Jindal to win 69% of the vote. (I predicted 65%.)

It's 9:00 PM ET and we can project Bobby Jindal will win re-election to a second term as the Governor of Louisiana.

That is how the names actually appear on the ballot.

First results are in.

Gov

Jindal 73, Hollis 12, Roberts 5.

LG

Nungesser 54, Dardenne 46.

SOS

Schedler 51, Tucker 49.

Geaux Nungesser!!!

Jindal 70, Hollis 16. Dardenne 56, Nungesser 44. Schedler 51, Tucker 49.

Jindal 67, Hollis 17. Dardenne 57, Nungesser 43. (6/4258)

Jindal 71, Hollis 14. Dardenne 52, Nungesser 48. Schedler/Tucker 50.

Jindal 71, Hollis 14. Dardenne 56, Nungesser 44. Schedler 53, Tucker 47. (61/4258)

That's a nice start.

Hollis is actually ahead by 9 votes in Ouachita.

Jindal 70, Hollis 16. Dardenne 57, Nungesser 43. Schedler 53, Tucker 47. (185/4268)

Jindal 68, Hollis 17. Dardenne 56, Nungesser 44.

Jindal 69, Hollis 16. Dardenne 55, Nungesser 45. Schedler 52, Tucker 48. (29% reporting)

Jindal is ahead in New Orleans. Ouch.

Apparently Jindal declared victory 20 min ago. Miles, can you confirm that?

For some reason we haven't had any updates in 15 min, the needle still stuck at 34% reporting.

Yeah, Jindal was giving a victory speech.

Dardenne is now leading Nunguesser. I'm just glad Dardenne isn't SOS anymore.

Needle finally moves... to 35%. Schedler 51, Tucker 49, Dardenne 55, Nungesser 45.

When will the next big numbers (i.e. more than a 1% increase in parishes reporting) come in, and where?

Where are you looking? The SOS site (http://staticresults.sos.la.gov/10222011/10222011_Statewide.html) is up to 50% reporting.

The graphical one. Thanks for that.

It all depends on how quick the precincts and parish get their results to the SOS.

How quickly is it normally done? Will counting be finished by midnight Eastern?

staticresults seems to be down right now.

It varies. I think you'll have 90% in by then. So some races will be undecided by then.

Is Jindal leading in all 64 parishes?

clearly

Yes. He even leads in Orleans Parish, though only with 39% of the vote.

Sorry, I had to step out to go get dinner, but yeah.

The one bright spot for the Dems is that Michael Jackson, the State Rep. who ran as an independent for LA-06 in 2008, splitting the vote and causing Don Cazayoux to lose, is getting beaten bad in his bid to be elevated to the State Senate. The incumbent is at 55%, he's at 28%.

A well known political analyst in New Orleans just predicted Vitter will make a run for Governor in 2015, saying there is little chance for him to move up in Senate leadership. The analysts says this because it's unusual for a U.S. Senator to be this involved in state elections.

Awesome; I'm glad that jackass is losing. Cazayoux would have been screwed during redistricting anyway (the new 6th is 67% McCain), but it would have been nice for him to win a full term.


I wouldn't doubt that. The prostitute essentially precludes Vitter from climbing to a caucus leadership post. A Gubernatorial run would make sense for him.

Well, I'm out for the night.

My endorsements did pretty well. I suspect Nungesser will come up short, though it turned out to be closer than I thought. Hazel and Loursso each won comfortably, as did Ward.

The real drama is in SD-12. Ben Nevers, one of the few remaining ConservaDems who didn't jump ship, is clinging to a 295-vote lead over tea party-endorsed Beth Mizell. 2 precincts in Washington parish haven't reported. This district voted 67% McCain, but Nevers mostly ran on social issues.

Looks like the State Senate will be 24-15, assuming the Democrat's slight lead in SD-12 holds out. Not sure about the House, there are a number of D/R runoffs (and a few D/I runoffs) set up.

How badly are the Democrats being mauled in legislative races? If at all?

Nevers is up to 51% with a margin of 352 votes. All precincts are in.

Yep, called for Nevers. 'Looks like 24-15 overall.

Senate will be 24-15, barring any major changes in the last few precincts.

House, by my count, is 55-39-1 GOP, with 6 D-R runoffs, 2 D-I runoffs and 1 R-I runoffs.

Not bad for Democrats (except BESE). 24-15 Senate and something like 60-42-3 House is almost the upper limit of what could be expected. The "last hurrah" of very (and by that i mean really very, probably more then Bobby Bright and "on par" with conservative Republicans) conservative Democrats like Ben Nevers and  Rick Ward (almost sure future party switcher) in state Senate and some (Danahay, mostly - Thibaut, Fannin, Jones, Hill, who, mostly, went unopposed) in House. But after these conservatives retire or switch - Republicans will get even bigger majorities (assuming that suburbs will not moderate anytime soon). BTW - even many black candidates and legislators in Louisiana are socially (and sometimes - economically) conservative too...

Same guy when talking about Dardenne said he'll probably run for governor in 2015. I'm not too thrilled about either one.

I can also see State Treasurer John Kennedy running for governor.

A full term would have been about it, as I couldn't really see him surviving 2010, even before redistricting..

Diolch


He would have lost by c.20pts.

Dave has this map of the Governor's race up.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=22&year=2011&f=0&off=5&elect=0)

Jindal won Orleans 40-29.

lol