Talk Elections

So, it appears to be the case that Bossi and Berlusconi have agreed that Berlusconi will resign around New Year and that there will be an election in February or March, in return for Bossi's support for budget cuts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15457900

Should be interesting :)

EDIT: Obviously this is mere speculation at this point, and if Al feels it should be in General International, he's absolutely free to move it there.

I think it's possible that there will be a new election sooner rather than later, so let's keep this thread here. I (or you) can always change the title if needed anyway.

Left-wing victory?

You can't imagine how much I wish this to happen. We can't spend one more day with such a crippled, ridiculed, bankrupt government in such a tough situation. We need change, and need it now.

If elections are held soon, the left should be considered as heavily favorite to win as long as it unites (the coalition system makes it absolutely necessary). It has held a solid and steady lead for a while now.

I think there will be no election before 2013

Confidence vote on Tuesday...after a few deputies left the majority,this might well be Berlusconi's last confidence vote.

Crossing my fingers... f**ing crossing my fingers. But I've seen so much disappointments until now that I'm ready to everything.

So who will be the left's candidate for Prime Minister?  Vendola or Bersani?

I am conflicted. On the one hand, my hatred of Berlusconi and care for the long-term future of the Italian nation wishes Berlusconi to survive until 2013. On the other hand, my fear of short-term market meltdown and instinctive wish to see Italy under a technocrat who could please the ECB wishes to see an early election. Hmmmm.

what are the difference between senatorial and chamber electoral system ?

The House seats are allocated based on nationwide PR, with the guarantee for the winning coalition to get at least 55% of the total seats. The Senate system is basically the same, except that it's based on regions (meaning that different coalitions can win 55% of seats from region to region).

The last poll I've seen is this one:

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Yeah, a 10 points margin is what I'd expect... provided that the left is united.

The left WILL be united,the only party that might (and hopefully will) NOT be part of the coalition is the FdS (the same communists which created all sorts of trouble in the Prodi governments).

Wow, I expected Fini was a lot stronger than that.

You don't want to govern Italy right now. It's best for the right to win another election, it will be worth it, they will be discredited for the next generation or more. If the left wins, the left in Italy is finished for the rest of our lifetimes.

You might be right. If the left wins in Italy, it might be at risk to fail in the same way as in Greece, Portugal and Spain, and I sure don't wish that.

However, there is something more important than the left's interest : Italy's interest. Italy has one problem today, that is Berlusconi. Financial analysts, economists and everybody agree to say that, if Italy were ruled by anyone else, its financial situation would be far less risky. Its economy is pretty solid (for a southern country's standards) and its debt isn't enormous (it's only a tad higher than France's). Berlusconi is a threat for Italy, that's why he must be kicked out. At any cost.

No, no. What most people don't understand is: Berlusconi's not the only problem. Far from it.


I agree with you that the economy is solid, the debt isn't enormous. Both those things don't matter now. A speculative attack has already started on Italy, and when you face a speculative attack, it doesn't matter how strong you are, you will fall. The financial analysts, economists and everybody else aren't telling the full picture. Italy's fate will be determined in Brussels and Berlin, the only question being decided by this election is who will take the blame will the disaster almost inevitably strikes.

Italy is too big to fail the way Greece did : either European leaders will eventually act in a reasonable way and really pull Italy out of the speculative attack, or the Eurozone is screwed. And with the Eurozone, all what was left of economic prosperity to western Europe.

I like to think people won't be that stupid.

What the EU leaders want is to kill socialdemocracy in Europe... Greece, Portugal (has someone heard something about them after Socrates resignation?) and Spain.
Zapatero managed to calm down the "European Wall Street" but the right will win here because people still think ZP created the global crisis (it's not easy to survive with 21% of unemployment).

Hopefully, the left wins in France, Italy and Germany. The right, lead by Merkel, is beginning to act like if they were dictators.

i'm not at all certain that left will win next italian election....they have no software-ideas since a long time, berlu keep a lot of fans, and far-left become more weak every year


I'm afraid than the destiny of the future government will depends of little center-party, christian-democrats and Fini fan club....

Meanwhile, tons of people have protested Berlusconi yesterday in Rome:

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Italian opposition in mass anti-Berlusconi rally

By Francoise Kadri (AFP)

ROME — Italy's opposition turned out en masse on the streets of Rome Saturday to demand Silvio Berlusconi's resignation, accusing the prime minister of dragging the country into bankruptcy and global shame.

But the 75-year-old "Cavaliere", back to his defiant self after returning from Cannes where the G-20 humiliatingly placed Italy's economy under surveillance, tried to dispel mounting speculation he could step aside.

With "Silvio out!" as a rallying cry, tens of thousands of people heeded the call by the main left-wing Democratic Party and rallied to pile pressure on Berlusconi.

Energised by the large turnout, Democratic Party boss Pier Luigi Bersani blamed Berlusconi for Italy's financial woes and joined a growing chorus demanding early elections.

"Italy is on the most exposed side of the crisis because of an incompetent and discredited government," he said after singing the Italian anthem with a crowd all in the national colours of green, white and red.

"For the country's reconstruction, we urge Italians to put us to the test government and we will show them that we can be a reform party," he said.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g1Dubpy1RPyWxqB03EmP3RwimJZg?docId=CNG.304ee28a60a3232c039551a92c958268.521

The PD rally didn't get the expected attention by the media because of the tragic news coming from Genova (flood killed 6 people). And some of its coverage was also "obscured" by the tensions between Renzi (mayor of Firenze who criticized the PD leadership last week) and some of the activists there.

PdL seems about to lose some other MPs...but knowing them, they seem to leave and come back every minute...

Casini is asking for a big "all together" government instead of fresh elections.

If they let Greece fail, the rest of the EU probably won't have the power and authority to prevent anyone else from failing too.

They make antiberlusconi protest marchs since 1994 (mrgreen smiley, don't find the code)

Heard about another PdL guy leaving. So that's three if I count correctly. And guess what ? Berlusconi survived the last confidence vote by... 3 votes. ;)

Not deluding myself though, he still has the time to buy three other random whores. My attitude here is and will remain "wait and see".

Gabriella Carlucci has left for UDC tonight too.

10% lead in polls...and thank God the far left is weaker and weaker,its leaders are a bunch of idiots.

I think that there could be a new center-right government with Letta or Alfano, and this will be positive also for PD, because it won't have to take the responsiblity of approve unpopular and neoliberal economic reforms that would put it in a unconfortable position, in case of technocratic government or even in case of leftist victory at early elections

Alfano seems to be specualted about a lot in the Italian media right now. But does anyone here believe he could turn the tides for Italy (or the PdL)? He basically looks like a caricature of a dim-witted DC apparatchik to me.

Forgive me for asking what must seem like a very obvious question that has probably been answered before - but - How is it possible that Berlusconi still has even the meager support he has in Italy. From polls I've seen there is still something like 30% of Italians who approve of him (I realize that leaves 70% who do not) - but I want to know how ANYONE in that country - regardless of political philosophy could possibly approve of such an exreable human being. It goes without saying that anyone to the left of the far right in Italy hates Berlusconi right off the bat for his politics. But then even you are a rightwing free-market type - or (this being Italy_ a devout Catholic anti-Communist who used to always vote for the Chrstian Democrats because the vatican ordered you to - here is a man who sleeps with underage prostitutes, brags about sex with a harem of women, has been divorced  numerous times, has been charged so much corruption so many times I've lost count and on top of all that he has literally broken every sinle solitary promise he ever made is clearly running the country into the ground!!

In Canada when Brian Mulroney got really unpopular in the early 90s - his approval numbers fell into single digits - and he wasn't even having sex with children! What does it take to make 100% of Italians see Berlusconi as a horror show? Who are the people who still like him???

Lega MPs constitute nearly 1/5 of the remaining PDL caucus. Likely game over for Teflon Silvio.

Post of the day, probably.

He's left the Quirinale without comment. No resignation for now.

Berlusconi will resign after the approval of a law with all the EU requests.
The President released a note,so it's official.

Swell news. Maybe Italians will finally elect somebody who isn't a criminal. On the other hand, this further isolates Canada in the "western countries with leaders who are wastes of oxygen and ought to DIAF" club.

No it doesn't.

Great news, like.

So... are there any parties in Italy, anywhere, who seriously support restoring the lira? What's the closest to a serious, establishment person whose name is known who has advocated such a move?

less "criminal" than gw bush, clinton, albright and the 1.5 millions dead iraki people

DC apparatchik is the best that post-war italy offered in politics :-)

DL, you can't understand because your politics in your let's say emisphere is totally personalistic. In Europe it's ideologic, so, even though now personalism arrived also here, and evene though Berlusconi's larger than life personality, still people vote according to their personal cultural, ideological inclinations. One of the leftist mistakes in last 20 years has been to concentrate on Berlusconi figures, while at least after 2001 who voted the centre-right, like me, did this not for Silvio, but becaus belonging to some stream like christian-democracy, nationalism, populism, neo-liberal tendencis, conservatorism, anti-communism. Well, these tendecies are still the first issue, and many people maybe are disappointed by Berlusconi, but fear more the opposition's likely choices. Regarding me, I would have like to have a Margaret Thatcher as prime minister, though, nasty, neoliberal, and personally and ethically perfect, so very different from Berlusconi, and now I can't trust who criticized Berlusconi government because he made "too many spending cuts", since my position is that he did too few!!! Is it clear?

I am not taking issue with the fact that 30% or more Italians would still vote for right of centre parties - that is to be expected for all the reasons you describe. I am more shocked that ANYONE in Italy still approves of Berlusconi as an individual or as PM. If I were a rightwing neo-liberal Italian who wished for an Italian version of Margaret Thatcher - it would certainly vote for one of the rightwing parties in the next Italian election, but I would also STRONG DISAPPROVE of Silvio Berlusconi both as a human being and as a Prime Minister!  

I just can't believe that there is still anyone left in Italy who is an apologist for his personal conduct and performance. In Italy there is high correlation between being a church-going Catholic and voting for the right - how can anyone who calls themself Catholic not be nauseated by a man who is a serial statutory rapist??? 

Ok, but he's not my father or friend and I'm not judging anything different but its government, not him, and even if the question is about his person, in reality it's a political question, as intended by electors, and the answer won't be separated from the personal political position

In fairness it isn't nearly as high as it was in the old days, what with the bizarre diffusion of Italian Christian Democracy (the principle successor party to the DC's ended up in the postcommunist party!)

You must also realize Italy is full of ignorants,and of people who benefit from Berlusconi's "policies".

Anyway,his approvals have decreased some 40% in the last 2 years.

Also, you know, he owns half the telly (or whatever disturbingly high percentage it is) and has done for ages. And, as a result, cannot have not helped to shape social attitudes towards (for example) women.

Personally owns 3 of the main 7 channels,and controlled through the government other 2 of them (public ones)...
Anyway,fully agree with your post.

Of course all of this had to break during the final week of our election season here (the news of the resignation came during Election day while I was driving across my city) so I haven't been able to follow it that closely.

I read that Gianni Letta might step in after Berlusconi is gone. Is this likely or could it be Alfano or even someone else?

It wouldn't work. The PdL has clearly lost its majority, and the only two options are either a technical government or dissolution. Hoping for the first one, BTW.

Mario Monti has been nominated by President Napolitano as a "life-senator".
It's a mostly symbolic role (although they were the ones to save the Prodi government numerous times) assigned to former presidents or distinguished people from the scientific field.

This time,though,it's a clear move by Napolitano that after Berlusconi's official resignations there will be a tecnhocratic government (almost certainly led by Monti),and no snap elections until at least spring.

An almost entirely elected body except for a handful of members. Another quirk of the Italian system (or maybe there are other countries that have it that I'm not aware of) that I'll never understand.

They need to have a Summer election sometime. I'd love to be there for that.

The latest an election could be is June...

Aside from a snap election, right?

I don't think there would be a Summer election anyway (in an even numbered year, at least) because of the World Cup or Euros. I imagine that would kill turnout.

An election in July or August would be nonsense anyway,football or not.

The fact that the last referendum,held in mid-June,had a >50% turnout was a miracle.
Elections are always held between March and June...

Well, I knew that for August since everyone - and it really seems like everyone - is away on vacation. But what about September through December if the government collapses?

That's not Summer :P
I don't recall any elections in the last years that happened in that period,also because there are a few economic "acts" that have to be approved around that time. But,theoretically,it's possible.

You said "The latest an election could be is June." I didn't know if that meant for the whole year.

No no,I meant before the summer.
And I still think about years in the academic way ;)

...in Italy? Uh, who wants to take this one...

Unless there is some reform (which is what the left wants), it's PR with majority bonus.

Basically, people vote for party lists, and those party lists are allied in "coalitions". The coalition that gets the most votes wins 55% of seats, other 45% are distributed among parties that got more than 4%.

It's unclear, but from the few I've heard they seem to support a majoritarian system (FPP or 2-round). That kind of makes me sad, but I understand the left being constantly annoyed by stupid far-left outfits (see Prodi's government).

Of course they support a vaguely majoritarian system with a degree of personal electoral accountability; hasn't that been one of the causes of reformers in Italy since the Clean Hands business?

Yeah, indeed. Back in 1993, they established a system with was 75% FPP and 25% PR, but it worked like sh*t and didn't even prevent politcal fragmentation. As criticizable as the current system is, it's an improvement compared to the previous one.

How so? Rigged PR systems are about the worst things possible. Unless you like performing monkeys.

Edit: do you mean from the point of view of being opposed to political fragmentation?

This system was one of the messiest things ever seen. Yeah, political fragmentation was even worse, because big parties didn't run candidates in all constituencies in order to ensure their smaller allies parliamentary representation. Add to that compensatory PR, and we election results becoming horribly hard to read and the final seats results which, despite being messy, didn't represent the electorate. It basically cumulated the flaws of both systems.

Not really...the actual system is way worse than the previous one.
Right now,there is a referendum which still needs to be put on the agenda (it has received the needed number of signatures) to get back to the previous electoral law.
Right now,ALL of the deputies and senators are basically chosen by the party rather than by the people. It's nonsense.

Anyway,the electoral reform is one of the issues that the tecnhocratic government will have to face. PdL,Center and PD all have different opinions on it,so either we get again the Mattarellum (old electoral law) or some sort of compromise.

It seems like IRV would be the best system for Italy.

I kind of agree, yeah. PR works fine in countries where parties have more discipline and are limited to a reasonable number.

The previus system was hellish, firsty because FPTP is, in my opinion, not democratic and not representative, secondly because blackmail by smaller parties was very common. Now there is no choice of MPs, even though it's the same in Spain and Germany. I support preferences, and a german system with 4% threshold

I find it funny how in Italy left-wingers support majority and right-wingers support PR, while it's more or less the contrary everywhere else. Anyways, I'm personally kind of mixed on this issue. The current system doesn't exactly work fine, its predecessor was even worse, and it's possible that no system would ever result in a clear mandate for a government. In the long term, a proportional system excluding smaller parties is what we'd need, but so far none of those has worked efficiently.

I think some in the Spanish left made some comments about looking into exploring a dose of FPTP iirc.

Really ? Meh... The Spanish PR is already pretty screwed up by the small size of consituencies...

As long as they change the actual electoral system,I'm open to anything.

Berlusconi about to resign, at 20:30 CEST. The House passed his austerity bill earlier this afternoon.

It's official.

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In Sweden as well. The Social Democrats historicly favourd single-member constituencies, while the centre-right has been strongly opposed. Considering the political geography of the country it's hardly surprising though 

Re: Berlusconi - all I can say is DING DONG THE WITCH IS DEAD!!

God am I enjoying these moments.

This is one of those lists that gets longer and longer to the point at which... ah... maybe it is not such an obvious general rule after all...

Well that was sort of what I wanted to acomplish. I don't think there is a general rule that the right supports unproportional electoral systems and the left proportional, rather I'd say the general rule is that political parties will support the system that would benefit them the most. It's not really an ideological issue. 

Are the any polls out showing how Italy might vote in an election now that "Caligula" has resigned?

From earlier this month:

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Indeed. And I was agreeing with you. Hey, the harder parts of the Labour Left have traditionally been ardent supporters of fptp.

Good, we're in agreement. Next step, take over the world >:D 

I fear the PdL will try to spin the new situation in order to pretend they are in the opposition and gain a few points. I doubt it could significantly change things, though. People are fed up of Berlusconi.

Without this Majority Prize thing, Vendola and Di Pietro could get more votes.

Only leading by ten? That's pathetic.

By the way, I read earlier today that Berlusconi is entertaining the idea of being a figure in the next campaign. It seemed like he'd either be the real force behind Alfano (I believe the Telegraph compared him and Alfano to Putin and Medvedev) or - get ready for it - that he'd actually be the candidate. I'm guessing that he's probably just acting out of habit, still craving the spotlight and not actually serious about doing it.

Berlusconi plans were to get Presidency in 2013, where he would be real power. Vendola and Di Pietro are in position to pressure Bersani in exchange for power positions. Austerity measures only can be passed if PD compromises with PdL, if new elections are hold by now.

The central point for the centre-right is whether it will be reunited or not, with Berlusconi not being the central figure now. Today Fini said that there could  be not anymore a Third pole, without Berlusconi, and a reunification. In perspective this is the future, but we don't know when

This is the last poll I've seen, from Nov. 8:

()

New polls should be out really soon.

No party or coalition has ever won with a bigger percentage since the times of Democrazia Cristiana...

But the election isn't being held today.  ;)



Yes! :D

And if this reunification of the Right is for real, the Left's lead is down to five.

The right reunifying would require Berlusconi clearly abandoning it (not just stepping aside and propping up his buddy Alfano) as well as some significant strategy change (giving less room to Lega, to be clear). It can happen, but not if PdL keeps acting as it has in these last days.

I don't think Fini would comment on reunification unless Berlusconi was clearly out of the picture. Hopefully, they address the Lega Nord issue, too.

That might be harder than it looks.

What's that? Putting a leash on Lega Nord? Of course it will be difficult. I'm just saying that it should be done.

The problem is that they might respond to leashing with 'fyck off'. As you know.

Sure. Then they get to spend every government from here until the end of time out of power.

You can't just add percentages in a scenario where Berlusconi is gone.
PdL would basically cease to exist.

Uh, no. Just the one term. Two years after the election, they're back in on their own terms.

From what I've heard from Berlusconi's last declaration, he seems anything but retiring from politics. Maybe he's just deluded and will eventually be forced out by his fellow party members, but he could also be planning to remain the man behind the curtain. I don't know, future months will tell us.

What do you mean? They'd be elected with enough support to form a government on their own? Come on.  :P

For the record, I meant they'd be out of government until the end of the time because they'd never form a government with the Left and the Right should cut ties completely if they decided not to accept being reigned in. I know it's a fantasy but it should be done. These people threaten to bring down governments every other damn month. Then again, we are talking about Italy here...

The problem, Phil, is that a large part of the Right's most loyal voters (however defined) defected en masse to the League in the early 90s and have shown no sign of switching back into the mainstream. It isn't as though they can be scared with the threat of Communism now.

I know that. There's a reason why I referred to my plans for Lega Nord as "fantasy."  ;)

The new government appointed today

Economy: Monti himself
Home Affairs: Anna Maria Cancellieri
Foreign Affairs: Giulio Terzi di Santagata
Welfare (+ Equal Opportunities): Elsa Fornero
Education, University and Research: Francesco Profumo
Justice: Paola Severino
Development: Corrado Passera
Defence: Giampaolo di Paola
European Affairs: Enzo Moavero Milanesi*
Environment: Corrado Clini
Tourism and Sport: Piero Gnudi*
International Cooperation: Andrea Riccardi*
Culture: Lorenzo Ornaghi
Health: Renato Balduzzi
Agriculture: Mario Catania
Territorial Cohesion: Fabrizio Barca*
Relationship with Parliament: Piero Giarda*

*cabinet ministers without portfolio

Are they all indipendents, or are they a mix of people from different parties?

It looks like they're all Independents.

They are all moderate and centrist, some slightly towards right, some left. And some of them quite catholic.
The majority is teaching in private university, Bocconi (close to entrepreneurs, quite neoliberal) and Cattolica (catholic university)

Back in the main right-wing alliance. The separate ways election being, of course, a more-massive-than-necessary Left victory.

I figured that's what you meant. I was saying they'd be gone forever because they wouldn't be welcomed back into the Right alliance unless they accepted their "leash." Again, I understand that that's fantasy.

Yeah, so an all-technical government. It's a pity, because it means there will be little solidarity between parties (having a PD and a PdL minister would have made it harder for these parties to criticize the government). At least those are competent guys who hopefully will do what they are for.

How do you know that? Because they say they are?

For the Italians here: when do you think we'll see the next election? A friend of mine's father serves in Parliament and he gave me a very brief, "This government could last until 2013" non-answer. Does that seem likely?

I've never heard anybody denying it (even those who talk about the evil bankers' conspiracy didn't question their competence AFAIK). That doesn't mean they'll do well, but that makes me somewhat hopeful that the short-term threat can be overcome. A political government will take care of the structural reforms, and hopefully it will be a left-wing one.

I don't know how long it will last. It basically depends on the parliament, which can bring him down whenever it wants.

Personally, my position is simple : this government should last until the financial crisis is resolved. Until the spread comes back to reasonable level, or whatever indicator you want to use. As soon as the problem is solved, new elections should be called. If this means waiting until 2013, fine with it. Basically, the elections should occur as soon as possible. As a left-winger, I can only hope they are held soon.

But if they've never run a country before, we have no idea whether they are competent or not.

This government might well last until 2013.
If the Parliament is not cooperative,though,I expect elections in the spring.

Btw,I like this cabinet.
Also,the new Minister of Justice is the vice-president of my university :D

Monti's government got 281 votes in the Senate tonight vs 25 against (Lega)