Print Page - Oregon political trends thread

I've been doing some reading about the political demographics of Oregon and I figured I'd just make a thread to post interesting information, numbers, and maps in case anyone besides me is interested.

First off: political party voter registration statistics from 1950-2010 (2-year increments): http://bluebook.state.or.us/state/elections/elections07.htm

1950 - 50.36% D, 48.07% R, 1.56% O
1952 - 48.92% D, 49.52% R, 1.56% O
1954 - 49.09% D, 49.38% R, 1.53% O
1956 - 51.39% D, 47.12% R, 1.49% O
1958 - 52.30% D, 46.21% R, 1.49% O
1960 - 53.36% D, 44.99% R, 1.54% O
1962 - 53.59% D, 44.74% R, 1.67% O
1964 - 54.91% D, 43.15% R, 1.95% O
1966 - 54.56% D, 43.44% R, 2.00% O
1968 - 54.54% D, 43.31% R, 2.14% O
1970 - 54.59% D, 42.98% R, 2.42% O
1972 - 56.25% D, 39.57% R, 4.18% O
1974 - 57.08% D, 38.46% R, 4.46% O
1976 - 55.93% D, 35.02% R, 9.06% O
1978 - 54.52% D, 34.51% R, 11.03% O
1980 - 49.97% D, 35.99% R, 14.04% O
1982 - 49.53% D, 36.38% R, 14.10% O
1984 - 49.25% D, 36.95% R, 13.81% O
1986 - 48.47% D, 39.09% R, 12.44% O
1988 - 48.25% D, 38.64% R, 13.11% O
1990 - 46.87% D, 38.67% R, 14.46% O
1992 - 44.64% D, 36.17% R, 19.19% O
1994 - 42.94% D, 36.34% R, 20.72% O
1996 - 41.04% D, 36.42% R, 21.52% O
1998 - 40.28% D, 35.84% R, 23.88% O
2000 - 39.37% D, 35.78% R, 24.85% O
2002 - 38.95% D, 36.34% R, 24.71% O
2004 - 37.45% D, 34.40% R, 24.85% O
2006 - 38.83% D, 35.74% R, 25.43% O
2008 - 43.17% D, 32.30% R, 24.54% O
2010 - 41.73% D, 32.10% R, 26.17% O

* D = Democrat, R= Republican, O= Other parties (and non-affiliated/independent voters)

Then there's this map from Nate Silver: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/oregon-swing-state-or-latte-drinking.html

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Democrats like to pretend that Oregon, like Wisconsin, isn't really a swing state because they've usually managed to win it in the end. But a swing state it is -- Al Gore won there by less than 7,000 votes, and John Kerry improved on those numbers, but not by much. And yet Oregon also has a reputation for being extremely progressive: people think of its assisted suicide law or its decriminalization of marijuana, or the bohemian atmosphere of Portland, and naturally enough come to that conclusion. How to reconcile these two things?

There are two ways to be a swing state. One is to have a lot of moderates. That doesn't really describe Oregon; a moderate state like Ohio would never pass an assisted suicide law. The other way is to have both a lot of conservatives and a lot of liberals, who happen to roughly balance one another out. Oregon is one such state.

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Exit polls from 2004 contain a basic question about the ideology (conservative/liberal/moderate) of each voter. We can apply a Likert scale to these responses, assigning 10 points to every liberal, 5 to every moderate, and 0 to every conservative. We will call this result a Liberalness Score. The average voter in Oregon has a Liberalness Score of 4.65, which ties it with Minnesota as the 13th most liberal state in the country. (Massachusetts is the most liberal state at 5.65, and Utah the most conservative at 3.30. Note that only a handful of states have a rating above 5 -- that is, have more self-identified liberals than conservatives.)

But here's where it gets interesting. The average Kerry voter nationwide had a Liberalness Score of 6.20 -- just slightly left of center. However, in Oregon, the average Kerry voter was a 7.17. This, as it happens, is the highest score in the country; the Kerry voters in Oregon were more liberal than the ones in Vermont (7.11) or even the District of Columbia (6.97).

Meanwhile, the average Bush voter nationwide had a Liberalness Score of 2.58 -- pretty darn conservative. But in Oregon, the average Bush voter was a 2.01 -- very conservative. And guess what? That is the lowest Liberalness Score for Bush voters anywhere in the country. The Bush voters in Oregon were as conservative as the ones in Tennessee (2.02) or Utah (2.15).

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Quote from: greenforest32 on November 17, 2011, 01:04:41 AM

SE Oregon = :P

That reminds me of the 1998 election for Governor when Bill Sizemore (a conservative who kept getting anti-tax measures put on the state ballot) won the Republican primary and faced off against incumbent Kitzhaber.

Sizemore lost in 35 of our 36 counties and by a 34% margin statewide (just imagine Tim Eyman vs. a Democratic candidate for Governor in Washington state. It's kind of like that) but he did manage to win one county in SE Oregon: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1998&fips=41&off=5&elect=0&f=0

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You can bet that was the first county Kitz wrote off when he ran again in 2010 :P

Yeah SW Oregon does stand out from the West Coast coastal areas:
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I think it has a lot to do with resentment and the associated economic decline in the county from the spotted Owl ruling (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Spotted_Owl#Controversy) that stopped a lot of the logging in the PNW.

Add to that with the fact that most of the county land is owned by the federal government and it's mostly rural I think explains some of it. They really are pushing it down there. They closed the county libraries a few years ago because they weren't willing to fund them via property taxes and the county commissioners have even said they might have to declare bankruptcy or merge with some other counties if the federal "timber payments" expire and the upcoming property tax measure fails: http://news.opb.org/article/counties-prepare-loss-federal-payments/

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Josephine County, in the southwestern part of the state, is one of the places at risk of just going away.

Dwight Ellis is a Josephine County Commissioner. He points out that without federal timber payments, his county’s budget would total $3 million.

It costs him $4 million just to keep his jail open. He says forget 2012 when the timber payments phase out.

Ellis says his county will be broke by 2010.

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Dwight Ellis: “We won’t have a criminal justice system after 2 years. It’s broken now, but its dead in two year. I’m not going to say bankruptcy, I don’t think Josephine County is ever going to go bankrupt, but it may mean we combine with another county or a region or something like that to maintain ourselves.”

Merging counties was just one of the ideas debated at the conference of counties.

Yet another possibility would be to ask the feds to use a market-based system to reward counties for keeping forests healthy.

Finally, Josephine County Commissioner Ellis wants to sue the federal government. In effect, go to court for the right to cut down trees.

Somewhat surprisingly, the county is a marijuana growing hub! It has a very high per-capita amount of medical marijuana cardholders: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/08/03/national/main20087493.shtml

Also relevant: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_%28Pacific_state%29

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Honestly... I think politics in Oregon can be split right down the Cascade Mountain range. If you're on the east side, chances are pretty high your republican, if youre on the west chances are your a democrat. I still shake my head at the last governor election. All counties went red cept for 6 or 7 tiny itty bitty (tho dense with population) and the republicans STILL cant win. (I know its counted by popular vote but still funny) Just shows ya one certain city holds all the cards in the state.

Though your charts were pretty interesting. And is our black population really that low?? o_o

EDIT: I totally grew up in the state of Jefferson xD In fact a few years ago they found like one of the biggest marijuana patches in our states history.

Good background on the 'federal timber payments': http://yournec.org/content/library-levy-fails

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In more than 300 counties nationwide, dwindling logging receipts means less money for essential county services, and environmentalists are frequently blamed as long-standing federal subsidies that had poured millions of dollars into county budgets have come to a screeching halt.

The fiscal trainwreck has hit especially hard in several Southwestern Oregon counties and the result is closed libraries, slashed school budgets and disappearing police departments. On May 15, proposed property tax levies to keep public services intact were rejected by 60% of voters in Coos, Curry, Josephine and Jackson counties.

Federal legislative efforts to rescue western public lands from fraudulent railroad scams dating back to the 1800s resulted in the creation of the 1937 Oregon & California (O&C) Railroad Act. One aspect of the 1937 legislation was to funnel 50% of gross timber revenues generated from O&C public lands back into more than 300 sparsely populated rural “timber” county budgets where the majority of the land was managed by the federal government and thus excluded from the local tax base.

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In 1946 the O&C lands were transferred over to the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and they covered Forest Service, who worked hard to ‘get the cut out’, in part, because many of the affected counties relied heavily on O&C funds to pay for police services, road maintenance, schools, libraries as well as some forest enhancement projects.

After logging was sharply curtailed in the eighties, the O&C counties successfully lobbied the federal government to continue subsidizing their budgets because O&C timber receipts no longer covered the cost of essential services. The most recent county funding program enacted by U.S. Congress in 2000, the Rural Schools and Community Self-Determination Act, was designed to be a short-term fix while O&C counties sought ways to become self-sufficient. But Congress voted lasted year to allow the Secure Rural Schools and Community Self-Determination Act to expire. In Josephine County, more than $15 million will be lost annually.

While voters in Southwestern Oregon counties refused to support higher taxes to pay for services, they still have no state tax, and also pay some of the lowest property taxes in America.

Think they meant no state sales tax at the end there.

Quote from: Helenae on November 17, 2011, 02:57:06 AM

Well you know people vote, not land. I've heard of some Oregon Republicans argue for a statewide electoral college for the Governor election. No thanks.

Quote from: Helenae on November 17, 2011, 02:57:06 AM

Though your charts were pretty interesting. And is our black population really that low?? o_o

Yeah I was surprised by that too. Washington has a similar Hispanic proportion, but twice the % for Asians and Blacks.

Quote from: Helenae on November 17, 2011, 02:57:06 AM

EDIT: I totally grew up in the state of Jefferson xD In fact a few years ago they found like one of the biggest marijuana patches in our states history.

Maybe we can spread the patches statewide in 2012: http://www.cannabistaxact.org/

Though I wonder how it will fare considering the dispensary initiative failed last year.

When will we finally free the weed? :(

It is pretty likely Democrats will hold the state senate and get a majority in the state house again in 2012. Turnout is always lower in non-presidential midterms and Republicans currently hold like 4-5 state house seats that are D+1-4.

2010 was basically Republican's greatest opportunity and the best they could do was tie the house (compare that to before 2006 where they won outright majorities). Demographics are swinging our way as well in Salem and Bend.

2010 redistricting basically just maintained our existing maps for another 10 years. We may get a 6th seat in Congress next time depending on population growth.

I am disappointed they tied the chamber though. They held up some good legislation last session.

Quote from: greenforest32 on November 17, 2011, 01:58:35 PM

So how long do you think it will take before Oregon becomes as Democratic as Washington state?

Quote from: Frodo on November 17, 2011, 06:17:42 PM

Quote from: greenforest32 on November 17, 2011, 01:58:35 PM

So how long do you think it will take before Oregon becomes as Democratic as Washington state?

I don't know if we'll ever reach parity. The states have a lot in common but if you go into the details they are different (just as an example, Eastern Oregon is more Republican/conservative than Eastern Washington).

I think Washington will continue to be more Democratic than Oregon and we'll probably reach where they are now in 10 or 15 years I think.

Another week, another article on the economic decline of rural areas with no oil/gas

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2011/12/in_rural_oregon_middle-class_l.html

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In rural Oregon, middle-class life is slipping away

The recession's punch hit the state's rural communities first and hardest. In rural areas, the economy still drags, now tugging down many middle-class families with it. Families that once worried only about future retirement or college costs now face foreclosure or need food stamps or ask charities for help to keep the heat on.

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More than 24,600 Oregonians have exhausted their unemployment benefits since the beginning of the year. The number of Oregonians receiving food stamps is expected to top 800,000 before the year is over. Government and nonprofit agencies expect even higher demand for food, rent and utility assistance as winter sets in.

Roughly a third of the people living in Douglas and Josephine counties get free groceries through food pantries supplied by a giant new warehouse operated by the United Community Action Network in Roseburg. The shelves were disturbingly bare during a recent visit.

Over the past few years, United Community Action has received about $3.4 million from the federal government. That money is almost all spent, and there's no indication that Congress is going to send any more, says Executive Director Mike Fieldman.

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U.S. census numbers show no population losses in urban Oregon over the past decade while eight nonmetro counties shrank. The nonmetro counties that did grow gained at a rate less than half that of metro counties.

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The coming decades are even darker for rural America with the inevitable rise in gas prices. Wait till we hit $6+/gallon :P

I wonder if they're still going to choose to live so far away from everything and vote for fiscal and social conservatism for another 30 years?

We may not get that 6th house seat in 2020

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/12/oregons_population_growth_slow.html

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The state's population growth over the past five years has slowed to a relative trickle, which seems evident given the economy. But newly-certified figures released by Portland State University's Population Research Center show the recession's lingering effect.

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Natural increase -- births outnumbering deaths -- accounted for two-thirds of the state's population growth in the year that ended June 30, 2011. That's a reversal of how we grew from the 1990s through 2008, when natural increase typically made up only a quarter or third of annual growth. The rest came from net migration -- people moving in minus people moving out.

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Oregon has added an average of 41,000 people per year from 2000-2010. That's akin to adding a new Albany every year. But the population growth of the past year was slightly below 20,000 -- like adding a new Milwaukie.

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Another expert, University of Utah professor Arthur C. Nelson, said the national economy may be "much improved" by 2013. That may lead to a population growth rebound in Oregon as people regain mobility.

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Quote from: Frodo on December 15, 2011, 11:47:45 PM

So why is everyone moving to Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson counties in particular? What's there? Is there a major city in those parts?

The growth in Crook and Jefferson counties wasn't really much (both counties have like ~20k people each and added about 5k in the last decade). Deschutes county (specifically Bend) is really where it's at and honestly I haven't got a clue why :P

Cheap housing and proximity to universities? But that doesn't really make sense. Why wouldn't people just move to suburban towns near Corvallis (OSU) or Eugene (UofO)?

OSU opened a satellite campus in Bend and now there's talk of turning that campus into Oregon's newest public university: http://www.gazettetimes.com/news/local/osu-cascades-sees-jump-in-enrollment/article_73073074-14e4-11e1-bc84-001cc4c002e0.html

Bend just strikes me as Eugene-lite and they're already so close. Weird...

Religious demographics are interesting as well.

The most thorough national study on religious identification with state breakdowns that I'm aware of is the American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS) which was done in 1990, 2001, and 2008. I'm not sure if they're going to keep doing it (I hope so!). ARIS ranked Oregon (and Washington state) as the least religious states in 1990 though some New England states (New Hampshire, Vermont) have passed us in 2008 report. Here are Oregon's results from that survey:

1990 - Catholics 15%, Other Christians 62%, Other religions 2%, Nones 18%, DK/Refused 2%
2001 - Catholics 14%, Other Christians 51%, Other religions 6%, Nones 21%, DK/Refused 8%
2008 - Catholics 14%, Other Christians 52%, Other religions 3%, Nones 24%, DK/Refused 7%

Sources:
1990 - http://prog.trincoll.edu/ISSSC/DataArchiveNSRI1990/index.asp
2001 - http://www.gc.cuny.edu/Faculty/GC-Faculty-Activities/ARIS--American-Religious-Identification-Survey
2008 - http://b27.cc.trincoll.edu/weblogs/AmericanReligionSurvey-ARIS/reports/ARIS_Report_2008.pdf

The most recent (2009) Gallup poll on state religious identity matched the ARIS numbers more or less, though it showed Oregon as the least religious state with the highest percentage of None/Atheist/Agnostics at 24.6%: http://www.gallup.com/poll/122075/Religious-Identity-States-Differ-Widely.aspx

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I also tried to find hard numbers on just atheists as opposed to no religion or unaffiliated and the best I could find was this state data from Pew from 2007: http://religions.pewforum.org/maps

Going under the "Beliefs & Practices" map and selecting the "Belief in God or Universal Spirit" shows results for states from the following options:

1. Believes in God- absolutely certain
2. Believes in God- fairly certain
3. Believes in God- not too certain/ not at all certain/ unsure how certain
4. Does not believe in God
5. Don't know/ refused/ other

Going with #4 as the atheist option, Oregon tied with Vermont/New Hampshire, Connecticut/Rhode Island, and Alaska (7.5% MoE for AK) for the highest percentage of atheists with 9% of people in each of these states not believing in God compared to the national average of 5%. Not bad but still pathetically low compared to European countries like Sweden :(

Too bad the Census doesn't ask about religion. That would be some awesome data.

Then there is self-identification data for political ideology. Oregon usually has about a little over a quarter of its population self-identify as liberal (which is apparently in the top 10), a third self-identify as conservative and the rest self-identify as moderate:

2009 data from Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/125480/ideology-three-deep-south-states-conservative.aspx

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2010 data from Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/141677/Wyoming-Mississippi-Utah-Rank-Conservative-States.aspx

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2010 Conservative-Liberal outnumber advantage:

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I couldn't really find historical trends on state-level political ideology. There's plenty of national data but only a few recent articles on states.

Kind of sad that only D.C. and one or two states have more self-identified liberals than self-identified conservatives :P

Quote from: greenforest32 on November 17, 2011, 02:54:09 AM

They closed the county libraries a few years ago because they weren't willing to fund them via property taxes and the county commissioners have even said they might have to declare bankruptcy or merge with some other counties if the federal "timber payments" expire and the upcoming property tax measure fails: http://news.opb.org/article/counties-prepare-loss-federal-payments/

Latest news on this:

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/12/oregon_counties_face_sinking_b.html

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Oregon counties face sinking budgets as federal payments end
The federal government owns 53 percent of the land in Oregon and 60 percent of the forests. Because the feds pay no property taxes, they shared timber sale receipts with Oregon's counties.

By law, timber receipts went to schools and roads -- the latter a fiscal handcuff that left many counties with large reserve road funds that can't be tapped for any other purpose. Curry County, on the edge of insolvency, has $33 million in road reserves.

The arrangement provided millions for decades. But environmental restrictions and policy changes sharply reduced federal harvests in the 1990s, and devastated county budgets.

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Acknowledging the problem, Congress provided replacement funding with the Secure Rural Schools and Community Self-Determination Act in 2000 as a temporary safety net.

The act expired in 2006. It was extended in 2007 and in 2008, but at stepped-down levels. Counties receive the last payments this winter.

The Association of Oregon Counties listed crisis counties in 2011 -- where the end of timber payments will bring "severe general fund shortfalls" soon: Curry, Coos, Josephine, Klamath and Lane.

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/12/in_curry_county_oregons_financ.html

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The dissolution of an Oregon county hasn't happened before. It may not be legally possible. Questions outnumber answers.

If there's no county government, who runs the jail, issues marriage licenses, records deeds, adjusts lot lines, inspects restaurants, counsels juvenile delinquents and assesses property? Who sends out the tax bills? Where do you send the payments?

Without timber payments, Curry's expenses will exceed general fund revenue by more than $350,000 in 2012-13. The deficit grows to more than $3 million the next year, the county projects.

"It's anybody's guess," Commissioner Dave Itzen says, "how long we last."

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Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden sponsored a bill to restore federal funding four more years, at reduced amounts. The bill has a chance in the Senate, but not in the House, Griffin says.

Meanwhile, a bill in the House to restructure federal resource land management and designate land for harvests might pass the House, Griffin says, but not the Senate. Even if either passed, counties wouldn't immediately see more money.

Finally, the state has no money to cover county losses. Sorry.

Maybe a property tax measure will pass and they'll be able to use some of the road funds for other purposes or maybe we'll have the state government end up taking over some county functions like Massachusetts did with some of their counties. I wonder how Washington state is dealing with this or do they not have any counties with circumstances this bad?

No new developments on the county funding issue really, just more specific numbers.

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2012/01/loss_of_federal_forest_payment.html

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The situation traces primarily to the management of Oregon's national and Bureau of Land Management forests, which make up 60 percent of the state's timberland -- including more than14 million acres of national forests.

Because federal land isn't subject to property taxes, rural counties and school districts since 1908 have received a share of timber sale revenue. The states dictate how the money is distributed; Oregon law directs 75 percent of national forest harvest revenue to county road funds and 25 percent to school districts. Timber receipts from BLM land can be used for county general funds, but the amount is much smaller.

Revenue going to the counties dropped sharply as logging on federal land declined over the past 20 years, however. To ease the blow, Congress in 2000 approved the federal payments.

The payments went to more than 700 counties in 41 states, including 33 of Oregon's 36 counties. Funding was extended twice, ramped down, and the last checks delivered this fiscal year.

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That second graphic could really be more informative if they included the % of the county budget funded by the payments :P

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The dissolution of an Oregon county hasn't happened before. It may not be legally possible. Questions outnumber answers.

What about Umpqua County?

Quote from: greenforest32 on December 20, 2011, 01:11:43 AM

I wonder how Washington state is dealing with this or do they not have any counties with circumstances this bad?

We got about $39 million in 2009 according to this link (http://www.tre.wa.gov/documents/monthlyReports/mr0110_fedcnty.pdf). So yeah, we get a lot less than Oregon, especially when you consider our state is almost twice as populous. Glancing over the county numbers, I imagine Ferry, Pend Oreille, Okanogan, and maybe some others could be hit pretty hard by it... Skamania County looks like it gets a lot and would be in a bad position, which this link (http://www.columbian.com/news/2011/sep/20/skamania-braces-for-end-of-timber-payments) seems to confirm.

Quote from: bgwah on January 22, 2012, 05:15:07 AM

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The dissolution of an Oregon county hasn't happened before. It may not be legally possible. Questions outnumber answers.

What about Umpqua County?

I think they were referring to a dissolution without a split/merge (no replacement).

Quote from: bgwah on January 22, 2012, 05:15:07 AM

Quote from: greenforest32 on December 20, 2011, 01:11:43 AM

I wonder how Washington state is dealing with this or do they not have any counties with circumstances this bad?

Looks like Oregon gets the most of any state in absolute dollars and we're #2 (after PA) in dollars per acre of federal land :P: http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5251340.pdf

http://www.fs.usda.gov/main/pts/securepayments

Not a surprise but still disappointing: http://news.opb.org/article/poll-shows-oregonians-still-support-capital-punishment/

Relevant snippets:

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Governor John Kitzhaber raised the issue of Oregon's death penalty this winter, when he placed a moratorium on executions for the rest of his tenure. He urged Oregonians to "find a better solution."

But now, a new poll by OPB and DHM Research shows that most Oregonians favor the death penalty. The poll found that 57 percent favor the death penalty for some crimes; 39 percent oppose it. Four percent say the don't know.

Su Midghall, lead pollster for DHM Research, says those numbers haven't moved in a while. "Historically, Oregonians haven't changed a lot in their support for the death penalty. It was high 10 years ago, meaning over a majority then, it's still over a majority today."

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In an interview that will run on OPB's Think Out Loud Wednesday Kitzhaber reacted to the OPB DHM poll that shows a majority of Oregonians support capital punishment.

The governor explained his actions, "I didn't abolish the death penalty. I didn't commute the sentences of everyone on death row to life in prison, which I could have done. I simply stayed the execution of Mr. Haugen and made it clear that I'm not going to carry out that sentence during my term in office. With the hope of fostering a discussion about the death penalty. A, whether we still want it. And B, if we do want it, whether the way the death penalty is set up in Oregon is really what people thought they were voting for back in 1984."

That's when Oregonians reinstated capital punishment.

Some more interesting articles and data.

http://news.opb.org/article/will-presidents-approval-numbers-help-democrats-down-ticket/

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How Are Oregon's Democrats Feeling About Obama?

"President Obama remains quite strong within his own party here in Oregon with over 80 percent approval rating among Democrats. Now that's the opposite for Republicans where over 80 percent disapprove of the President right now. What's interesting is that Independents are split right down the middle. You'll find about 50 say that they approve of the President. 50 percent disapprove. Obama has to move Independents to do well in Oregon and nationally," Midgehall says.

The poll she's talking about was commissioned by OPB and it was conducted in Oregon a few months ago -- in January. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

http://news.opb.org/article/how-health-oregons-gop/

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How Is The Health Of Oregon's GOP?

On Wednesday we checked in on the state of Oregon's Democratic party. Today, we take a look at the GOP. Oregon hasn't had a Republican in statewide office since Gordon Smith lost his hold on a US Senate seat, almost four years ago. For two major races this year – Attorney General and State Treasurer – the Republicans didn't field a candidate.

One of the GOP's problems is simple math.

Republicans have less than 33 percent of registered voters in Oregon's first congressional district and in the state as a whole. Democrats in the district, and statewide, claim 42 percent of the electorate. The result statewide for Republicans has been the same again and again, as it was in the recent first congressional district race. Tim Hibbitts is with polling firm DHM Research.

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"They're not a particular strong force in the state of Oregon, politically. They have lost 26 of the last 29 partisan statewide races – those are races for president, senate, governor, and the second-tier statewide offices, like Secretary of State, State Treasurer, and Attorney General," says Hibbits.

Republicans have narrowed the registration gap with Democrats by more than 50,000 voters over the last four years. But Democrats still outnumber them by more than 180,000, according to the Secretary of State's official numbers.

"The reality is, this is a Blue State. Republicans can win here, but it's very difficult for them to win. You need, basically, to find candidates who can appeal to swing voters in the middle, who have been voting for Democrats in most of these statewide races over the last two decades," says Hibbits.

Some of those are non-affiliated and minor party voters – a block that has grown by four-percent in the last four years. That's while registration numbers for both Republicans and Democrats have fallen.

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Quote from: greenforest32 on November 17, 2011, 01:58:35 PM

It is pretty likely Democrats will hold the state senate and get a majority in the state house again in 2012. Turnout is always lower in non-presidential midterms and Republicans currently hold like 4-5 state house seats that are D+1-4.

2010 was basically Republican's greatest opportunity and the best they could do was tie the house (compare that to before 2006 where they won outright majorities). Demographics are swinging our way as well in Salem and Bend.

2010 redistricting basically just maintained our existing maps for another 10 years. We may get a 6th seat in Congress next time depending on population growth.

I am disappointed they tied the chamber though. They held up some good legislation last session.

Also, it actually turns out to be 8, not 4-5: http://dpo.org/news/pr/2012-03-06/strong-candidates-across-map-oregon-democrats-are-poised-win-big-2012-legislative

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There are eight current Republican-held seats in which Democrats have a voter registration advantage, versus zero in the reverse.

http://www.oregonvotes.org/doc/voterresources/registration/feb12.pdf

Quote from: greenforest32 on November 17, 2011, 06:46:44 PM

Thought this was interesting:

http://oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/03/13/oregons-regional-employment/

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http://oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/04/12/portland-seattle-and-the-rest/

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A couple of notes about the graph. One, February 2008 is chosen as the beginning point since Oregon’s total nonfarm employment peaked that month, while Washington’s peaked in March 2008, just one month later. Two, Portland is defined here as the five county MSA (Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington and Yamhill), while Seattle is defined here the three county MSA (King, Pierce and Snohomish). Interesting to note that both of the major metropolitan areas have experienced nearly identical employment cycles over the past four years (even if the exact composition of the changes is somewhat different).

These regions are also responsible for the vast majority of the employment gains the past two years. Non-major MSAs and rural areas of both states have yet to fully share in the recovery to date, if at all. Non-Seattle Washington is doing better that Non-Portland Oregon both during the recession and so far in recovery. There are a number of reasons for this, including Hanford, Housing and Agriculture, to name three.

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Tri-Cities, Washington (Benton and Franklin counties) is home to the Hanford Site which received approximately $2 billion in additional funding from ARRA, which greatly benefited the local economy by boosting employment and income. The region actually added nearly 10,000 jobs through mid-2011 (+10%), however as the additional funds have more or less been spent at this point, the region is losing jobs today to the tune of 2,400 in the past six months.

Two other contributing factors worth noting are housing and agriculture. While many regions experienced a housing bubble and bust, Medford and Bend were particularly bad and devastated their local economies. Conversely, mid-sized MSAs in Washington like Spokane and Tri-Cities did not experience housing bubbles of similar magnitude.

Finally, while commodity prices have generally been high in recent years – supportive of agriculture – it appears based on what crops are grown in which regions that the composition of agriculture is also at play. The regions more reliant on grains, grass and trees have fared worse than those dominated by fruits (apples in particular). The grass seed farms and nurseries in the Willamette Valley have been hit hard by the recession while Washington enjoyed a record apple crop in 2010 and 2009 and 2011 were good years as well.

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I expect we'll be over 50% support for gay marriage by June 2012 (1 year after PPP showed us at 48%) and only going up from there, but I thought this was an interesting article.

http://www.wweek.com/portland/article-19211-the_10_year_engagement.html

"The 10-Year Engagement: President Obama has “evolved” to support gay marriage. Oregon isn’t there yet."

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National polls show more than 50 percent of Americans support same-sex marriage.

But in Oregon, only voters can change the state constitution. Voters passed the ban, Measure 36, by 57 to 43 percent in 2004. Voters are often reluctant to change their mind on ballot measures—even ones that aren’t so controversial. Plus, civil-rights advances are rarely made at the ballot box.

Polling numbers haven’t shown the kind of sea change same-sex marriage advocates had hoped for.

“Ultimately, we have to win a pretty challenging political fight,” says Jeana Frazzini, executive director of Basic Rights Oregon, the state’s largest gay-rights organization. “We are looking to move mountains in this state.”

Last November, Basic Rights Oregon announced that it would not pursue a ballot initiative this year to overturn the state’s same-sex marriage ban. The decision by the state’s largest gay-rights organization came after a three-year, six-figure media campaign.

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Frazzini says Basic Rights Oregon’s polling showed support for same-sex marriage spiked by 10 percentage points from March 2010 to November 2011.

That same polling showed it wasn’t enough.

Basic Rights Oregon won’t release the results of its polling last fall, but three sources tell WW that the poll, conducted by Grove Insight, showed support for same-sex marriage statewide was between 46 and 49 percent.

“It would have been a toss-up,” says Frazzini, who declined to confirm the actual numbers.

The close margin didn’t provide same-sex marriage advocates the kind of cushion they thought they needed.

Basic Rights Oregon and its 31-member advisory group, including Bean, decided not to put same-sex marriage on the ballot after conducting 15 town-hall meetings in downstate cities from Tillamook to Pendleton.

“Our community was very clear at every town hall: ‘We want to do this once, and we want to be done with it,’” Frazzini says. “The memory of what it felt like the day after Measure 36 passed is visceral.”

Good old theocrats:

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And opponents of same-sex marriage will be waiting.

“We don’t know if they will put it on the ballot in 2014,” says Teresa Harke, a spokeswoman for the Oregon Family Council, which founded the Defense of Marriage Coalition in 2004 to pass Measure 36. “We’re not sure if they even know. If they do, we will fight it, and we will fight it hard.”

http://oregonfamilycouncil.org/issues

Quote from: greenforest32 on December 15, 2011, 11:44:31 PM

We may not get that 6th house seat in 2020

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/12/oregons_population_growth_slow.html

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Where do you think that 6th House Seat will be drawn if you guys do get an another seat in the 2020 Census? What section of the state? Your from there obviously so would probably have a hunch I figure on that.

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Quote from: greenforest32 on November 17, 2011, 03:16:55 AM

Quote from: Helenae on November 17, 2011, 02:57:06 AM

Well you know people vote, not land. I've heard of some Oregon Republicans argue for a statewide electoral college for the Governor election. No thanks.

Quote from: Helenae on November 17, 2011, 02:57:06 AM

Though your charts were pretty interesting. And is our black population really that low?? o_o

Yeah I was surprised by that too. Washington has a similar Hispanic proportion, but twice the % for Asians and Blacks.

Quote from: Helenae on November 17, 2011, 02:57:06 AM

EDIT: I totally grew up in the state of Jefferson xD In fact a few years ago they found like one of the biggest marijuana patches in our states history.

I don't think an electoral college for a Governor's race would make a difference. The Dems rely on the city of Portland and the ex-urbs around Portland to pull out tight races right? Thats where most of the population is right now in the state: in Portland and the ex-urbs surrounding Portland.

Quote from: hopper on May 17, 2012, 09:42:53 AM

Quote from: hopper on May 17, 2012, 09:49:31 AM

I thought the Portland ex-urbs were growing the most but I guess the middle of the state county wise is where all the population growth is now looking at that map above.

That middle area doesn't really have that many people on its own. If you add up the populations of Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson counties it's only about ~201k and while they were growing faster off of a smaller base, I don't think the growth will be that high for that area in the coming decades considering higher gas prices (Poor Bend, the proposed PNW high-speed rail line and its connection to California don't even touch it D:) and a good part of the growth was from the real estate boom which has fizzled in Bend but we'll see.

The Portland metro area (including Vancouver) is projected to gain an additional 1 million residents by 2030 (http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2009/05/portlandarea_growth_blurs_rura.html) and I expect this is probably where a 6th house seat would be placed by shifting the 4th district down further and rearranging the existing 1st, 3rd, and 5th districts. Most likely we'll have 5 districts in Western Oregon and one in Eastern Oregon that crosses over a bit in the North/Central/Southern areas.

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Quote from: hopper on May 17, 2012, 10:12:28 AM

Yeah it really wouldn't help much considering the EC vote would probably be weighted by population. I guess they just feel like counties = people and if majority of the land mass votes against you, you should lose. I always think of rural Illinois for this

Josephine county update:

Quote from: greenforest32 on November 17, 2011, 02:54:09 AM

the county commissioners have even said they might have to declare bankruptcy or merge with some other counties if the federal "timber payments" expire and the upcoming property tax measure fails

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2012/05/because_of_tax_levy_defeat_jos.html

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May 16, 2012
Without federal money, Josephine was left to make do with the state's lowest county tax rate, 58 cents per $1,000 of assessed property value.

The commissioners asked voters to approve a four-year levy that increased the tax rate to $1.99 per $1,000 -- still nearly a dollar below the state average of $2.81. The board adopted a 2012-13 budget that outlined where the cuts would fall.

By a vote of 57 percent to 43 percent, voters said ~~bring it on~~ no. Turnout was 51 percent.

Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on May 17, 2012, 06:42:29 PM

Virginia's is only assessed locally. Does Oregon have a state-level real estate tax?

Oh wow, I guess we don't. Looks like it's done by the local governments: http://www.oregon.gov/dor/ptd/property.shtml

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Introduction
The property tax system is one of the most important sources of revenue for more than 1,200 local taxing districts in Oregon. Unlike income taxes, that are calculated by the taxpayer, property taxes rely on county assessment and taxation offices to value the property, calculate the tax, collect the tax and distribute the money to taxing districts. The (state) Department of Revenue has general oversight of the property tax system in Oregon. We provide support and oversight to the counties to ensure uniformity and equity of property tax administration.

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Tax Rates
Each year in late September or early October, the county assessor places the taxes certified by the taxing districts on the tax roll. Property taxes are placed on the tax roll in the form of a rate per $1,000 of assessed value. In most cases, the taxes for operations are the permanent rate limits certified by the districts. When a district certifies a dollar amount tax levy, such as a local option tax or bond tax, the assessor must calculate a tax rate. To compute the tax rate, the tax levy amount is divided by the taxable assessed value of the district. For example: Green City certifies a local option tax in the amount of $225,000. The taxable assessed value of the city is $39,487,000. The rate for the local option tax is calculated as follows:

tax levy amount / taxable assessed value = tax rate
$225,000 / $39,487,000 = .0056980 or = $5.6980 per $1,000 of assessed value

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Tax Limitation (Compression)
The Oregon Constitution also sets limits on the amount of property taxes that can be collected from each property tax account. These limits are often called the "Measure 5 limits." To figure these limits, taxes are divided into categories described in the constitution. The categories are: education and general government. Some taxes, usually for general obligation bonds, are not subject to limitation. The limits are $5 per $1,000 of real market value (RMV) for education taxes and $10 per $1,000 of RMV for general government taxes.

If taxes in either category exceed the limit for that property, the taxes are reduced or "compressed" until the limit is reached. Local option taxes are compressed first. If the local option tax is compressed to zero, and the limit still hasn't been reached, the other taxes in the category are proportionally reduced.

Please note that these limits are based on the RMV of the property, not the taxable assessed value.

Quote from: greenforest32 on November 17, 2011, 01:28:36 AM

Ethnic demographics from the Census are always interesting to see as well

Little more on this:

http://censusscope.org/2010Census/states.php?state=OR&name=Oregon

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http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2012/05/oregons_minority_births_on_ris.html

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May 17, 2012
In Oregon, racial and ethnic minorities accounted for 38.7 percent of the children under age 1 in 2011. Although the state has not yet reached the social “tipping point” at which minority births outnumber whites, it is trending that way, said Risa Proehl, a Portland State University population researcher.

Oregon’s 2010 figure was 37.2 percent, she said.

Nationally, 50.4 percent of children under age 1 in 2011 were racial or ethnic minorities. Proehl called that a “historical marker for the country.”

Interesting poll about Oregon's ban on pumping your own gas: http://www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2012/07/20/survey-oregon-drivers-happy-with.html

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July 20, 2012
A study by Seattle-based insurer PEMCO Insurance found that two out of three Oregon drivers — 63 percent — support the state’s ban on self-service gas stations.

In Washington, where drivers can choose between both full- and self-service pumps, only one-third of drivers prefer mandated full-service gas, with 60 percent opposed to gas-pumping laws.

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But Washington residents surveyed by PEMCO weren’t convinced of the economic benefits. Asked whether they would approve a 5 cent per gallon cost increase to support new jobs, nearly two-thirds opposed costlier gasoline.

Nearly half of the Oregonians surveyed, 49 percent, would consider a change if lifting the self-service ban made gas cheaper by five cents a gallon.

In other related data, seven of 10 women supported full-service gas, while only half of the men agreed. Men and women in Washington both opposed full-service stations.

There was a ballot measure back in November 1982 (Measure 4) that would have repealed the ban and it got ~42.5% of the vote: http://bluebook.state.or.us/state/elections/elections20.htm

I was thinking maybe the support for repealing it had increased since that time because the ban was probably in more states back then but I guess not. Current figures are hard to come by but a 2003 article (http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Self-serve-gas-in-Oregon-Not-likely-1114712.php) says there were about 7,600 people working statewide in that position. I'm not sure if that's over-counting it by including employees who would be employed at the stations even without the ban.

The specific law (ORS 480.315) lists 17 reasons for the ban and it's a bit fun to read: https://www.oregonlaws.org/ors/480.315

Between us and New Jersey I wonder who will get rid of it first? And I wonder how it will play out with stations focused solely on electric vehicles? :P

Quote from: greenforest32 on November 17, 2011, 01:12:48 AM

Then there's this map from Nate Silver: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/oregon-swing-state-or-latte-drinking.html

Another relevant article about four years later: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/oregon-sitting-at-the-border-of-safe-and-in-play/

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The Bellwether: Washington County and Clackamas County

With Oregon’s liberal cities in the Willamette Valley on the left, and eastern and southern Oregon on the right, the political battle in Oregon tends to focus on Portland’s suburbs, Mr. Lunch said. Specifically, campaigns focus on the swing voters who live in two counties that neighbor Portland: Clackamas County, to the southeast, and Washington County, to the west. In 2008, 13 percent of Oregon voters cast their ballot in Washington County, and 10 percent in Clackamas County.

Washington County, which includes a bevy of high-tech jobs in the Silicon Forest, tends to be a bit more Democratic than Oregon as a whole. And Clackamas County, which is more blue-collar and includes more exurban and rural territory than Washington County, tends to vote a bit more Republican than Oregon overall. So, when taken together, the two counties present a nearly perfect barometer of Oregon’s final statewide vote, matching the two-party vote shares statewide almost exactly in the last three elections.

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I had a feeling there was a particular donor behind all that recent conservative funding in ~~Clackamas~~ Clackistan County: http://www.wweek.com/portland/article-19841-the_king_of_clackistan.html

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The King of Clackistan

Timber baron Andrew Miller wants to turn Oregon to the right. He’s starting the fight in Portland’s backyard.

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...

Miller’s complaint is the same message corporate leaders have been sending for years, without stemming the blue power of the progressive, Democratic Portland metropolitan area. But Miller is trying to alter that by bringing his fight to Portland’s doorstep.

His privately owned Stimson Lumber Company has spent $2.2 million in recent years to influence Oregon politics—unmatched by any other business in the state.

But Miller’s growing influence arises from how he’s spending it: funneling cash to candidates from his increasingly influential political machine, Oregon Transformation Project PAC.

Miller’s operation is trying to win political control of Clackamas County. His group’s slogan, “Stop Portland Creep,” is resonating with those who are tired of urban planning, density and especially the Milwaukie light-rail extension. The revolt has earned the county the nickname “Clackistan.”

Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/State Elections => Topic started by: greenforest32 on November 17, 2011, 01:01:44 AM