Talk Elections

Discuss!

If Obama becomes the first President in history to get reelected while seeing his party seats governorships, Senate seats, House seats, and more state legislative seats, my head is going to explode. 

Best case scenario for the GOP is four, NH, NC, MT, and WA.

Which do you think is more likely to flip, NC or WA? (nevermind my signature :P)

I think they'll lose Washington and North Carolina.  I suppose Montana and New Hampshire could be at risk.  Delaware and West Virginia are safe holds.

The Republicans seem unlikely to lose Utah or Indiana in my opinion.

NC is way more likely to flip than Washington at this point.

I think democrats will gain governships by 2012, unless you don't count recalls happening near that time as "2012".

NC, your gal has fallen back into the 30's in PPP's latest poll, losing her Hurricaine Momentum.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_11041205.pdf

The poll also had GOP tied on generic legislative ballot and prefering GOP legislative leaders to Perdue by 1%. This is inspite of the GOP legislature having the worst approvals.

Also Obama is certain to win WA, NC will be swing state.

Yikes...

I'll probably spend a lot of this next summer volunteering for her. Its gonna be tough....

I think Democrats will lose North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Montana. Washington can happen, but it'll be a stretch.

Dems. keep NC and WA, and have a high possibility of loosing NH and MT. but I think they'll loose only one of them

Maybe a pickup in Wisconsin with possible losses in North Carolina and Montana. Don't see Dems picking up Indiana or Utah.

WA's race will likely, like last year's senate election, and in 2004 go down to the last minute as a pure tossup. Right now McKenna is ahead due to name recognition.

Certainly going to be a fun election to watch.

My gut tells me WA will flip.

Has to happen sooner or later. How long has it been since WA had a GOP Governor? 21, 25 years?

Please turn your webcam on so that we can enjoy the carnage.

Republicans will gain North Carolina, Washington, New Hampshire, and Montana.

Once Gregoire's current term has ended in just over a year, it will be 28 years. We haven't elected one since 1980.

New Hampshire and North Carolina are probably goners, but Democrats can still salvage Montana and Washington.

The Democratic streak started on January 16, 1985 and continues to this day. So that's almost 27 years.

I think NC is gone. Likely R.

McKenna is the best possible recruit for the republicans in WA, but Inslee is a very solid one for the dems too. I'd say Gregoire's unpopularity make it a toss-up/tilt R. If it wasn't a presidential year or if there wasn't mail voting, McKenna would win.

I think LaMontagne is favoured to win in New Hampshire unless Romney isn't the nominee or there's a competitive primary with Ted Gantsas. Slightly lean R.

Montana is hard to say, need to see how the Republican primary develops and Bullock is a good candidate for the Democrats. If it's Bullock vs. Hill, I'd rate it a pure tossup.

West Virginia is lean D unless Maloney enters the race. With Obama on the dem ticket, it could quickly become a race. I don't believe he wants to run again so soon though (and he shouldn't).

Missouri is safe/likely D, depending on which Republican candidates enter the race now that Kinder is gone.

I don't think Democrats will pick IN or UT. Not with Obama on the ticket. I also doubt they can beat Walker on a recall election.

Edit: reading is important

Your correction implies the last one was elected in 1984. My original post was correct.

Oh shoot, you're right. I was too focused on dates that I read it wrong. Sorry about that :P

Though technically I asked how long ago you guys had one, not how long ago you elected one. So while bgwahs answer is right it is to the wrong question. :P

^Nope, I answered your question correctly as well.

Once Gregoire's current term has ended in just over a year, it will be 28 years.

January 1985 - January 2013 = 28 years.

I far some reason flipped around what each of you guys said. :P

Hopefully, Perdue can run on the idea of split party control, especially with the GOP expected to have large legislative majorities with their aggressive redistricting. Or at least in theory since sadly she's had several vetoes overridden.

NC, NH, MT, WA are all potential flips. Probably not WV though, because SMC will remain glued to her seat unless Rocky retires in '14.