Talk Elections

http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/money/business_news/national-unemployment-rate-falls-8.6-percent,-lowest-level-since-march-2009

After watching Chris Matthews last night on Hardball talk of how the economy is improving; Democrats will be jumping out of their skin at this one. I can't wait to hear the spin.

I will say however, these are the best numbers since March of 2009, but I do not believe that we're out of the woods just yet.

At least I don't have to hear "Obama is presiding over 9.0% unemployment....blah blah."......at least for one month.

I think those days maybe coming to an end. There could be another spike, but if I had to wager a bet I would say the unemployment rate will be around 8.6% in November 2012.

Any gov't number is nonsense.  What's the real unemployment right (i.e. that includes those that are structurally unemployed, have given up looking or who don't work 40 hrs per week?)

It's probably 20-25%.  Disgusting.

Let's keep outsourcing jobs though to save $$$.

No doubt, but part of the economic malaise is an issue of confidence, and this could be the turn around.

I certainly am hoping that this bodes better times.  But, for the moment, the lower unemployment number looks like a pretty mixed bag,  Along with hirings in the past month, the previous two months' hiring figures were revised upward, so this means, as far as good news goes, that hiring in the last quarter has been consistently better than earlier in the year.  And I suppose some will take it as a marginally good sign that private employers are hiring while governments are laying off workers.  But many of the newest jobs could be transient holiday ones, since the biggest gains were among retailers, and this may especially be the case without continued growth and if the European crisis gets out of hand.  The worst thing of all about the lower unemployment number is the degree to which it's a mathematical result of 315,000 people dropping out of the labor force because of long-term unemployment, so the lower number doesn't really represent strong and significant gains in the labor market overall.

It's about 16% according to the Fed, Yahoo and Breitbart (yes I know, shut up) reported on it awhile ago. Anyway, it's beyond obvious the number fell because people just stopped being counted given that you need 150,000 new jobs per month just to break even.

The issue is, and this comes right from my own company even..there is just a ton of uncertainty right now. In addition, it's an employer's market.  They have all the power and all the chips.  They dictate everything.  They expect one person now to do the jobs of two or three and work longer hours.  That's the new norm folks. 

I've even had top Managers tell me that there is no way they are hiring people domestically who they have to pay a decent salary, plus retirement, healthcare, etc when they can hire someone in India for $2/hr and work them 14 hours per day for often better quality service. 

This is what it is folks.  Read that.  Very scary.

Those "real" unemployment rates are just circlejerk lies. Unemployment is not about 10%. I live in a dirt poor area and 1 in 4 people I meet here are not unemployed. 1 in 10? Very likely, but "people who gave up" is not double people still trying. You don't just "give up" on having a livelihood.

Very good news for Obama.

Moderately good news for the economy.

One question is, has the economy turned the corner?  Improving numbers through June (and I'd include the misery index in those numbers) would be very good political news for Obama.  A slump in the same period, or even static numbers would not.

The headline number (Drop to 8.6%) is good news.  

I am sure the Obama folks and the media will spin that number really hard, and to the degree it can become a narrative it is good in that it may improve the general level of confidence in the economy.  There is a $h*tload of cash on the sidelines, and to the degree confidence improves, some of this capital may reenter the economy.

The bad news is that 315,000 folks just simply gave up looking, so the drop is a statistical quirk not a real reflection of actual gains.

With the revised upward numbers from the previous two months, the economy is in reality more or less at a break even point - new jobs being created more or less equaling the increase in persons in the workforce.

I suspect that the "headline number" will stay pretty constant for a while - if we get a spurt of job growth, the spurt will be masked by previously discouraged workers rejoining the workforce. (and vica versa, if growth goes south, discouraged workers will rise)

An interesting question is how many of the long term unemployed (ie nearing the 99 week unemployment Insurance limit) have just gone off the books and are working in the underground economy?

In Europe (Italy is the poster child for this) the real number of folks with a job is a fair bit bigger than the "official" one - As US policies converge with those of Europe, it will be interesting to see if the underground economy grows to also match European levels.

Is this country doomed permanently? I fear so. Service economy- hah! Here is your service economy.

Underground economy? That's a good guess. Although, police have reported less crime. Perhaps its a negative feedback loop that's going on. The less legitimate money being made, the lower the tax revenues, the lower the tax revenues, the less cops investigate whores, drugs and tax evaders....or people getting beat up or robbed for that matter. I mean, one of my sister in laws got arrested for being a whore and pimp in Casper a couple of months ago while she was completely under the radar almost everywhere else. The economy in Wyoming is still being propped up by those who make 60 or 70 large a year toiling for Dick Cheney in the oil and coal fields. Its a great way to get and stay in shape and it keeps the local economy very strong.

We're not out of the woods yet, but we are seeing more light through the branches.

Look at all that is not creating job growth -- there  is no speculative boom and there is no intensifying war. This is an honest recovery.  

No we are not out of the woods yet.

Besides seasonal labour being an obvious plus for the payroll number, remember

Unemployment applications increased to over 400,000 for the first time in over 3 weeks

And 375,000 Americans dropped out of the labor force.

However the spending gluttony that is the holidays may lead to some more permanent work...

The first editions of the AP story pointed out that it ONLY dropped because 315,000 people stopped looking for work, so they are no longer counted toward unemployment figures.

The AP has now conveniently reworded that information after their overlords in the DNC demanded that they hide it.

Pure coincidence.

:)

Isn't that what Reagan said too?

Look...voters vote THEIR pocket books, and when the percentage of the population working is shrinking and wages (even before adjustments for inflation) are shrinking...it doesn't matter if Unemployment Rate drops to 2.0%, the voters aren't going to drink the Kool-Aid.

And an economy growing at 2% GDP with NEGATIVE real wage growth will soon become an economy with NEGATIVE GDP growth - a recession.  And that new recession is going to be obvious in 2012Q1 (or 2012Q2, at the very latest), right in time to engineer a landslide against Obama.  In fact, as I pointed out last month, half the GDP growth of Q3 was due to increased spending on medical services and electricity (due to the heat wave).

The negative wage growth (even before inflation), is showing up in both the GDP reports and the employment reports....it's undeniable.

Not to mention, consumers are continuing to pay down debt.  So with shrinking wages and no new debt spending, where is continued growth going to come from?

One month of numbers is irrelevant.  What will matter is the trend into the Summer and Fall of 2012. 

how would you know, you're 19 years old?!  And if someone has told you the Reagan recovery was fake, they you really are to be pittied.  The recovery during the Reagan and Clinton administrations was an absolute gold mine for anyone with markable skills.  Both were very real and broad based, though the IT bubble of 90's made follow through in the 00's tough.

Wow.. and I thought I was a pessimist... :) - I am thinking flat gdp will 2013.....

Vorlon, if you think US policy is converging with Europe, you're completely deluded.  European policy is converging with American policy - neoliberalism.


jmfcst, negative wage growth is the goal of your party (the GOP), and of Capital, and neoliberal economists.  You should be pleased.

()

This. Politicians can delude themselves into thinking the public is completely stupid, but they are not when it comes to market activities. Most people do not suffer from monetary illusions.

You won't have long to wait.  Here comes the blue avatar set...







As long as there is a black Democrat in the White House the Republican spin will be prompt and predictable.... guaranteed.

Uh, reading comprehension...

But yes, obviously anyone criticizing this must be a Republican.

Seasonal, temporary, full time employment, not permanent full time employment.  And I know because I work in an unemployment office for the state.  The burst is amazing, but also disheartening.  The unemployment rate always drops near the holidays as retailers need extra hands for the extra business - ie. UPS and its tons of seasonal driver jobs, etc.  Feb's unemployment rate will be back up in the 9%ish range. 

Also, every time these numbers are published, they are always revised back up.  So with the revision its probably 8.8%.

You can adjust it yourself.  Just see what the number was last year at the same time.  Was it higher or lower?  Hint... It was higher last year.

Gallup unadjusted numbers...

() (http://www.gallup.com/poll/150794/Unemployment-Ticks-Mid-November.aspx)

Just look back on the graph to Nov-Dec '10 and you will see we are lower than the same time last year whether it's seasonally adjusted or not.

Frankly it's one number that will be revised up or down... the way it always is.  It's amazing the amount of right wing hand wringing that goes on when one positive looking economic number comes out.  I'm sensing there are a lot of people that were hoping the US economy would stay in the tank so their party could take over the White House.  I find their reaction disgusting, but with some reflection not surprising.  At this stage in the game we know who we are dealing with.  Honeslty.  One potentially positive econ number and a thread full of wailing and gnashing of right wing teeth is spawned.  But with no evidence what so ever here is their reaction to the possibility of the reverse...









The righties have been praying for an economic deterioration for months non stop.  One semi positive econ number comes out and they attack Dems for "spin" that hasn't even happened.  The Republicans on this forum really make me sick.  This isn't even a discussion.  All the comments I quoted are from just one Republican poster.  The idea that people like this are in engaged in anything other than pure partisan hackery is absurd.

Everybody just calm down.  It's one number.  You cannot draw a trend with one data point.  We will have to see how things go in the next few months and wait for the inevitable revisions.  In the mean time quit praying for a recession and making off the wall pronouncements.

What I continue to enjoy is the fact that Texas reached their highest unemployment rate in September of 2011 and fell only 0.1% in October.  I thought Texas was supposed to be creating all sorts of jobs?  Why is their unemployment rate higher now than it was during the spring of '09?

In contrast, Minnesota's unemployment rate peaked at 8.5% (unadjusted) in May of 2009 and has fallen to 6.4% in October.  Texas was at 7.5% in May of 2009 and is at 8.4% as of October.

I guess I can't blame Jmfcst for being so pessimistic.  Things really aren't as good in Texas as they'd like you to think.  Must be all those liberals down there ruining the economy.  Or perhaps all the brown people... surely some liberal boogeyman is to blame!

I should point out that part of the reason Texas' rate has gone up is because the labor force has grown at a fast pace.  People have been moving there in high numbers seeking jobs.

The labor force growth rate has slowed sharply in the past year, however...

It's also a reason why states like Washington have stubbornly high rates of unemployment... they are attracting a lot of people from worse off areas of the nation.

That said, the labor force has grown in MN as well and we're one of only a couple states to have regained all the jobs it lost in the recession and are now posting record employment numbers... beating the previous high seen in mid 2006 here.

Good news for Obama. There really isn't much that needs to said about it beyond that.

I might as well post this now, as it'll likely be among the last bit of economic good news until after 2012, given the likely armageddon coming out of Europe:

-------

"Employers said they took on 120,000 workers in November, bringing job gains over the past four months to 534,000, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. A separate survey of households showed 278,000 more people were employed last month, pushing the increase during the same period to 1.28 million.

At turning points in the economy, the latter may prove more accurate because it’s more likely to pick up hiring at small companies and new firms that may be under the government’s radar. In another sign of recovery, the payroll figures the last three reports have been revised up by a combined 91,000 on average for the prior two months.

“Maybe we are doing a little better than the payroll survey suggests,” Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said in a research note. “The payroll survey keeps getting revised up and up and up,” he said, and “the household survey is more likely to catch start-ups.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-02/u-s-households-find-work-in-sign-job-market-better-than-payrolls-suggest.html

Abandon ship!

I've been defensively looking for work for the past couple of days and from that I've gathered, if you have a CDL or work in the medical field, you ain't hurting for work.  Also lots of entry level work, but that's to be expected I guess.  Everybody else is screwed.

Ah, the GOP dream.

And I'm sure long term economic economic growth will be just fine with the average wage dropping to $2/hr.

Reagan actually had one of the worst rates of job growth of any post-war president. But he jmfsct's watching Fox have no clue of this...

The fact you actually seem to believe this SO confirms your HP status.

Actually, I'd read somewhere that these numbers were NOT seasonally adjusted, and thus merely subject to the holiday hiring frenzy. That seems HIGHLY unusual though for BLS statistics, IIRC. Disappointing if true. Anyone have further insight/info on this?

Not really...

For the lack of a better place to put this on this forum:

I don't want to be held to this, but I think there is a pretty good chance we're looking at a D-Day in Europe practically right around Christmas. Looking at the 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd or right after the markets wake up to reality in the few days after Christmas and extending out maybe a couple days after new years.

I was originally expecting something from the beginning of January to the end of March. But now I'm looking at one very $hitty Christmas holiday for many people in Europe.


I've never engaged in this level of timing before(I usually time to a 6 month or even 1 year period never this specific). and there a lot of variables at play here. But there is some catalysts coming up that this is the first time I'm going to venture a guess this specific.

Like I said dude, you won't have to wait long...

Interesting that Republicans are finally realizing all these unemployment numbers are fake as hell.

I think we're still about the same as Spain, with their 20% unemployment.

Pretty incredible isn't it?  Those numbers have been phony for decades.  Now that Obama is in the White House they're jamming up the forums talking about how this number and that number shouldn't be believed.  After Bush's disastrous tax cuts they were looking for any tiny morsel of this phony data to declare their tax cut nonsense a success.

That's not spin. I posted the exact same thing on the Econ board. I'm just coming out with a cautious prediction here. I'm not commenting on the unemployment numbers.

So, again, seasonally adjiusted numbers or not?

Pretty crucial distinction, IMHO.....

I think he meant in the medical/health field (doctors, nurses, technicians), which is true. Obviously not true generally.

That was some of it, but there are entry level clerical (data entry and such) positions and what not here too.