Talk Elections

Channeling Teddy's similar idea for Canada, I'll do the same for France (or perhaps any other country I know something about and which you're dying for). I can provide:

-maps based on UNS for all presidential elections since 1965, legislative elections since 1997 and european elections since 1979
-maps of hypothetical fictional presidential matchups, any year, any round, any candidates (within reason, no Donald Duck vs. Adolf Hitler stuff)
-maps of hypothetical legislative elections for most years based on a fixed scenario
-maps of hypothetical, fictional referendums on any reasonable issue, any year

Maps will be made at a departmental level save for legislative elections.

What a great idea, there should be plenty of nice stuff to work out ! I'd really like to see some alternate legislative results, playing with party numbers to see what happens in terms of seat counts (tied vote nationwide, slightly better or worse results for each party, etc...). You could also calculate the results using different voting systems, like FPP or different kinds of PR. I don't have one precise idea, but I'd be glad to see any of your ideas.

Oh, and maybe something where De Gaulle's dies while fleeing during the May 1968 crisis and Gaston Monnerville becomes president.

France with current Canadian parties.

I said hypothetical matchups, chicos.

Not only. I personally like UNS scenarioes. ;)

Pompidou v. Duclos, 1969 (second round)

Seconded.

Also: Balladur vs. Jospin (1995)

Balladur v. Jospin, Round 2, 1995.

Great idea! I'd like to see the map of a referendum on gay mariage, nowadays, with, let's see, about 57% in favor of it.

I'd really like to see some UNS legislative results, say 1981 with PV tied tied between left (PS-PCF-MRG-DVG) and right (RPR-UDF-DVD), or 1993 with a more "normal" results, or a left-wing win in 2002.

Here's 1995 Balladur-Jospin

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Assuming an OTL 53-47 runoff, assuming Chirac voters vote as OTL Balladur voters did, assuming a slightly less favourable transfer of Le Pen votes.

Lot-et-Garonne, Tarn-et-Garonne, Indre, Puy-de-Dome, Essonne could go either way really.

1969 Pompidou-Duclos

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Duclos would be lucky to get 35% or so. I'm really assuming a realistic best-case scenario for him, with all Rocard+Krivine votes, most of Defferre and 2-3% extra from either others or abstention. I'd love to see some of the results in places like the Saint-Flour plateau, Leon, rural Alsace and so forth!

Gay marriage a bit harder than planned, but coming to it.

Here's gay marriage at 57% support:

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Making heads or tails of which places would vote NO was really hard. I assumed the most rural Catholic places and rural right-wing places in the east.

My next project is France with Canadian parties (sans Bloc).

Front National with their best election ever somehow, 20%

Thanks, that's really interesting! I tried to make one related to an old thread but it was really difficult to figure out...

I just wonder why do you think the rather right-wing Charentes-Maritimes would vote more in favor of same-sex marriage than the more urban and left-wing Vienne? I also have a hard time understanding why Savoie would be that socially liberal (more than 60% in favor of gay marriage here, really?) and on the other hand I'm a little skeptical about the "no" vote in Aveyron and Cantal, but that's not a very educated guess ;) .

What do you think a death penalty referendum map would look like? I'm not asking you another map, but I really don't know if we would find the same rural vs. urban divide in this case...

Yeah, maybe Vienne should be above 60%, but Charentes-Maritimes is above 60% because of La Rochelle. I've always felt Savoie to be way more socially left-wing than it is economically, but I might be wrong on the intensity of support. I don't really know how bourgeois snobs would react to gay marriage: would it be "meh, who cares" or "cool" or "Sainte mere de Dieu! Teh gays!"

Great maps ! :) Wouldn't Alsace go against gay marriage (or very moderayely in favor) ?

Strasbourg is pretty socially liberal, but perhaps 60% in the Bas-Rhin is a bit too much yeah.

France with Canadian parties

2011 election, modeled on Canada outside Quebec. Excludes overseas for obvious reasons.

Assumptions:
I'm carrying over most Canadian voting patterns except the Catholic-Liberal link which makes no logical sense in France (I'm replacing it with a rough Protestant/Jew/Muslim/atheist-Liberal/NDP link)
This includes an immigrant-Liberal pattern, which might or might not be logical in France, but I'm just carrying it over from Canada
This assumes a very weak Communist history in France as in Canada
Steve Harpo is less of a maniacal right-wing nut to be elected

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Other map-based comments:
Corse could go a whole lot of different ways, I assume it's something like Newfoundland in its genepool tribal Liberal voting
The old Radical SW would probably be the rock-solid Liberal core (small property, individual farming and all that)

Next up: same thing, based on 2000

That's a pretty strange map... Can you tell us more about the details ? I guess working class areas (Nord, Haute-Normandie, Lorraine) are strong NDP areas, so are rural areas of progressive tradition (Limousin et al), but what's up with Liberal strength in the Southwest ? Overall, they should be concentrated in cities (indeed there are a few red spots).

Great map anyways. Some other alternate-country scenari should be fun (UK 2010, Germany 2005, Spain 2008, Ireland 2011, Switzerland 2011, Denmark 2011... my favorite should probably be Italy 1976 ;))

I think the Liberals resemble the old Radicals more than any other French party; in that sense, one can imagine a party based on rural elites.

As I touched on, I imagine the Radical SW to be a Liberal base. My theory is founded on a tradition of individual land-ownership, historical protest at a political elite which would probably be Tory, anti-clericalism. Champagne would probably have been Liberal for similar reasons up until the 1950s or something. Landes might be wrong though, it's a place of heavy sharecropping and might be more NDP instead.

Before I post my Canada 2000 map, here's a map based on UNS. Adding whatever percentage to Le Pen 2002-R2 to make him win the election with 50.01%. Which might be a fun premise for a nightmarish ASB timeline which leads to a Balkanized France.

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Here's Canada 2000 with a Liberal majority which might be a tad too big

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I see, that's original but it makes sense. ;)



What a horrendous map... :P Not very surprising, though. I'd like to see a 3-way tie between parliamentary left, parliamentary right and FN, based on an election like 2002, 1997 legislative or 1995, whatever you prefer. :)

I found it interesting that Longwy would have voted Chirac over Le Pen.

I'll see what I can do a UNS based on 2002 or 1997. I might actually take the Le Pen wins to a timeline where the FN then wins the legislative elections :)

Thanks!

It's interesting how badly Le Pen did throughout all of Paris. I would have thought that he could have done relatively well in areas with a lot of immigrants.

Excellent maps!

Two requests, good sir:

Would you be able to do Kennedy versus Nixon? (1960)

Also, would you be able to do Gore versus Nader? (2000)

The whites who live in parts of Paris with the most non-whites often tend to be more well-off than we think or gentrified bobos. That being said, the FN in 2002 still generally polled well in those places.

Wait, are you using any math here, or just coloring in random places?

As I said, that map was based on UNS.

Mmmm, maybe Aube, Manche and even Moselle and Alpes-Maritimes would be "no" areas. Jura could be contested too.
Aveyron may be just in favour of "yes". Aisne too.
Haute-Savoie would be more contested.

As for Corsica, honestly, it's very difficult, but there would be a great resistance to gay marriage, I think, whatever political leanings... :P

Wobnderful and amazing map, Hash ! Thanks a lot !

Le Pen's weakness in Val-de-Marne is striking.
And Garonne valley is still fascinating.

I've just found this fantastic thread and, of course, I have some ideas, GREAT ones, of course ;D

Chaban-Delmas vs Mitterrand 1974 (with a razor-thin margin, like in RL)

Barre vs Mitterrand 1988 (with a national result a bit more balanced than in reality, whatever the final winner)

Giscard d'Estaing vs Rocard 1981 (with a national result similar to the real one)

Pompidou vs Mendès-France 1969 (Pompidou small winner, for example)

Bayrou vs Royal 2007 (not so easy...) (let's say with Bayrou winning as great as Sarkozy)

Sarkozy vs Bayrou 2007 (same overall result)

And if you are really bored (;)), a 1st-round Delors in 1995 would be fine, as a 1st-round Mendès-France in 1965.

A Coluche in 1981 would be very challenging: some sort of Laguiller+Le Pen in terms of relative strength ?

What does "ASB" mean?

My source has returned!

Here's Chaban-Mitterrand

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I make most of these maps using a mix of personal common sense and then create a variable in the CDSP's mapping tool. In this case, I've applied a UNS in the first round to give Chaban 24.5% and Giscard 23%. I then tweaked things a bit assuming a strong Giscard transfer to Chaban and some 1% from Royer (a poor transfer) and added a final UNS to that to give 50.5% to Chaban. The final result is a pretty amusing half-assed return of the old Gaullist map losing the working-class north but saving the Occupied Zone along the Atlantic.

Savoie, Marne, Seine-et-Marne, Hauts-de-Seine, Haute-Saone, Belfort, Jura, Landes and Puy de Dome are pretty much on a knife's edge.

This was a very interesting challenge, because of Kennedy's Catholicism and the fact that French politics in 1960 were basically structured along religious clerical-anticlerical lines. Kennedy being Catholic and not a CINO (well, yeah, we f**cked a lot, but the Kennedys were pretty Papist) at that would have done very well in France. Here's my idea of a Kennedy victory, perhaps at 51-52% or whereabouts:

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Basically Kennedy does phenomenally well in Catholic working-class areas, holds non-Catholic working-class areas and the traditional "Democratic base" in the old otl Communist C. Alsace, Bretagne, Anjou, Maine are hard to determine: would they remain wary of the traditionally anticlerical Democrats or would they embrace the Catholic Kennedy?

Very interesting maps. :)

ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC !
REALLY !
It's already a very "modern" map for the time. I like it.

Is Lot-et-Garonne also on the edge ?

I'd like to second two scenarios
-Rocard vs. VGE (1981)
-1995 with Delors

Sorry for not taking up remaining requests, but one day, I will. In the meantime, since it's primary flavour in the US, what if France could vote in the US primaries?

I'm assuming basically a national primary, a mix of France being the US - thus the French results reflecting otl results - and France being part of the US - thus a normal primary state. I'm assuming a fairly closed primary electorate composed of:
Reps: NC, UMP, most of the FN and MPF
Dem: MD, EELV, PRG, most of the PS, some Commies, few Trots

I make an effort to give at least one win to each major candidate which is in consideration.

To kick off with the 2012 GOP primaries:

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Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann are not taken into account.

I can take requests for past primaries.

Aren't you a big generous with Gingrich ? I know there was a thread about his being a typical French politician, but policy-wise I'd still have a hard time seeing him so strong among moderate "pompidolian" right-wingers in the center. In his stead, Santorum could fare a little better in catholic France.

Why are Meuse and Haute-Marne supporting Paul ?


Anyways, I'd like to see more of those primary maps.

In RL, Romney would win a landslide, but I'm kind of trying to create a map close to otl American results. But, yes, I might have overestimated Gingrich there, but it isn't natural Romster land - its right-wingers are rural and not affluent moderate suburbanites.

A part of the FN electorate, specifically the hybrid type (http://electionsfrance.wordpress.com/2011/12/28/2007-le-pens-collapse/) (type 2-3 hybrid) would be quite favourable to Paul. A conservative-libertarian half-populist candidate like Paul would be a good fit for 'isolated' rural areas in parts of the diagonale du vide where there's a strong anti-elitist and populist sentiment. It's perhaps not all that unlike Coos or Arostook Counties...

I see. Nice experiment anyways, I hope more will follow.

I'll bore you a bit with the 2008 GOP primaries before publishing 2008 Dem primaries.

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Rudy Giuliani is not taken into account.

A note on Corsica: I've just assumed they'd vote for the establishment candidate. It's too hard otherwise.

Other GOP maps:

2000
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Forbes, Bauer and Keyes are obviously not taken into account.

1976
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Here's an amusing one: 1968 D, assuming a Gene vs. Bobby contest.

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Being generous with McCarthy... RFK would win a landslide in a 'French primary'

Fun stuff indeed. Wouldn't Ford sweep France, though ? He's far closer to the standard French rightie than Reagan.

Again, as I said, I'm kind of trying to create a map close to otl American results.

1980 D
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1984 D
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1992 D
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Reagan seems to be winning this map, though...

No Jesse Jackson in 1984?

Note the population of the places which Ford won.


I've kind of wanted to simulate a straight Hart-Mondale race. He'll be on the 1988 map.

It would be interesting to see what Jackson's electorate would be, though.  Non-whites + hard-left might be strange bedfellows in France (my impression, which might be wrong, is that among the redder working-class elements in France there's a good deal of anti-immigration and quasi-racist sentiment).

The working class has been flirting with xenophobia and the far-right for decade (and now it's starting to take it to the next step). However, that's not the same as saying the hard-left is anti-immigrant. More like the hard-left doesn't really represent the working class.

Well 1984 was still prior to working-class 'disaffecteds' going from commies to FN, right?

I'd like to see the 1972 Democrats.

What do we mean by 'hard-left'? The PCF, the Trots, the left-wing of the PS? or the American hard-left which in France would be moderate PS lefties?

In terms of party platforms, all of them are pretty pro-immigrant nowadays, although for sure the PCF of the 1970s flirted with borderline xenophobia in some places. In terms of electorate, it is hard to quantify, but the PCF electorate certainly has xenophobic reflexes in some cases.

At any rate, the importance of ex-PCF voters voting FN is way overplayed. But I can only blame the useless piss stain journalists who have bought into the theory that the FN's voters are all ex-commies. But, yes, 1984's FN electorate was very much right-wing and way prior to the emergence of gaucho-lepenisme. I wrote a blog post on that.

Here's 1972 D

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McGovern realistically wouldn't do anywhere as well, but I've needed to be kind so that he wins the primaries. Muskie's support was hard to lay down, I've assumed Catholic WWC areas.

And Corsica is just wrong.

I'd think the best way to represent Corsica would be to have it always be won by "favorite son" candidates when applicable, so Wilbur Mills in '72.


It'd be difficult to say since America is a two-party system and France is a multi-party system, so "all of them."  The American (white) "hard-left" (unions, environmentalists, feminists etc.) all lined up behind Mondale, so much so that he was quite effectively attacked (with justification) by both Hart and Reagan as having a campaign totally run by special interests.  The white people who supported Jackson, especially after the "Hymietown" incident, were generally of the Marxist variety.

Here's 1988

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Dick Gephardt not included.

Monnerville vs. Duclos 1969?

Very nice maps.

Here's 2008 D

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John Edwards etc not taken into account. Again, this is accounting for a closed primary limited to left-leaning voters and MoDem voters. Because, yeah, the 06 and 83 wouldn't vote for a brown man in a general election.

I might make a constituency map of this race, it's pretty interesting.

I think we can all agree that if such a scenario had come to pass, Monnerville would have defeated Duclos in a landslide, despite fairly awful turnout. Duclos might have won Seine-Saint-Denis.

No comments? I spent hours on that map, actually.

I find it very interesting, but I don't have any particular comment.

Do you want a constituency map of the contest? I think it could further show interesting things in departments which are kinda iffy (44, 83, 64) and contrasts between regions of large departments (13, 59, 33, 34).

I'd be pleased to see it, yes. :)

Republican 2008.

The 2008 D map will need updating... going con-by-con makes me realize certain things. Like Finistere would be for Hillary.

Updated 2008 map:

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...and by constituency!

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Fascinating map ! :) Could you comment it a bit for political geography n00bs like me ?

(good to see all the constituencies I've ties with are Obama strongholds, anyways ;))

I think the main patterns are fairly obvious on the whole. Obama dominates middle-classes, urban areas, a certain type of rural area and also does well in Parisian impoverished banlieue because he's black. Hillary does well in working-class areas, a certain type of rural area, more industrialized or low-income urban areas.

Oh, can you make a Republican 1996 or 2000?

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Not all that different, surprisingly.


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A bit of a weird map... but I like the end result


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Maine-et-Loire, Aveyron, Allier are pretty much too close to call.

Awesome maps. :)

Could you try a 2012 Bayrou vs Le Pen map ? I've heard about a political fiction book written by Dominique Paillé where those two became the frontrunners. Even though it will never happen I'd like to see what it would look like. Say Bayrou wins, but not in a too lopsided race (60-40 or something like that).

Thanks again.

Hash, I got a request - presidential elections with 1969 referendum passed with regions by this map - http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Carte_ref_1969.JPG.

I'd like to see a Chevenement vs. Chirac in 2002.

Muclair vs Harper vs Bob Rae, let your imagination run wild for an interesting map. I suggest you keep Muclair constant and Frenchify the other two. Also tell me the assumptions you made.