Title: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 15, 2011, 07:42:47 PM Hi folks, I'm putting together a national map for the 2012 congressional districts and I need the official plans for each state when they come out. I would greatly appreciate it if people would post the official state-by-state congressional plans here, so I can use them to construct the national map.
Thanks! Fuzzy Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on December 15, 2011, 07:53:13 PM This link from DKE may help. (https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0At9k6QrlThx6dGlNZlFBRGQtVjNud1UwaXh3aXNpdXc&output=html)
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 15, 2011, 07:55:04 PM This link from DKE may help. (https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0At9k6QrlThx6dGlNZlFBRGQtVjNud1UwaXh3aXNpdXc&output=html) Wow, thank you! :) This will keep me busy. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on December 15, 2011, 07:57:27 PM This link from DKE may help. (https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0At9k6QrlThx6dGlNZlFBRGQtVjNud1UwaXh3aXNpdXc&output=html) Wow, thank you! :) This will keep me busy. Good! You still may have to do some searching around for the actual maps, but I think its a pretty concise redistricting guide. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Hash on December 15, 2011, 07:59:18 PM Thank you for doing this, Fezzy. I was hoping some brave soul would do a nice national map...
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on December 15, 2011, 08:00:54 PM DKE also mapped out all the new CD's on Google maps, but they don't have county lines to use as a guide. (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/09/09/1013737/-Mapping-the-New-CDs?detail=hide)
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Padfoot on December 16, 2011, 01:25:16 AM DKE also mapped out all the new CD's on Google maps, but they don't have county lines to use as a guide. (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/09/09/1013737/-Mapping-the-New-CDs?detail=hide) They need to update Ohio since they just passed a revised version of our map. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: BigSkyBob on December 16, 2011, 01:27:19 AM DKE also mapped out all the new CD's on Google maps, but they don't have county lines to use as a guide. (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/09/09/1013737/-Mapping-the-New-CDs?detail=hide) They need to update Ohio since they just passed a revised version of our map. And, there are no maps in place in Texas. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 16, 2011, 04:51:14 PM I've finnished a handfull of medium and small states, and now I'm starting on Illinois.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 29, 2011, 06:32:36 PM Okay, here are the states that I've finished so far:
Alabama Washington Oregon Nevada Missouri Colorado Louisiana Nebraska Oklahoma Arkansas Utah All of the states with 3 electoral votes Illinois is in progress. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Jackson on December 29, 2011, 08:36:28 PM I've already done Illinois. I could send it your way if you're interested.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 29, 2011, 08:45:43 PM I've already done Illinois. I could send it your way if you're interested. Cool, that would be awesome! Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Jackson on December 29, 2011, 08:53:13 PM Here you go. I've also done maps of California, North and South Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Iowa, and Indiana.
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 29, 2011, 09:14:43 PM <3 <3 <3
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Jackson on December 29, 2011, 10:19:10 PM Oh sorry, just noticed that this was my first draft of the California map that is incorrect in the Sacramento and Ontario/Riverside/San Bernadino areas
Here is a better version. () Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on December 30, 2011, 02:09:01 AM Nice.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on December 30, 2011, 11:03:35 AM I added NC and WV.
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on December 30, 2011, 12:13:30 PM ()
Added MA. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: nclib on December 30, 2011, 12:20:58 PM Good work, Fuzzy. I'd be interested in seeing the larger states shaded by Obama/McCain or other election result.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: TJ in Oregon on December 30, 2011, 12:26:12 PM I added OH and WI
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on December 30, 2011, 01:21:03 PM Very cool.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 30, 2011, 06:10:42 PM You guys are awesome. ;D
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 30, 2011, 06:45:43 PM I'm working on New Jersey while we speak. :)
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 30, 2011, 07:51:25 PM Add ME and ID too. I shall. ;) Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on December 30, 2011, 08:59:57 PM 'Rounding out the Deep South. I added MS.
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 30, 2011, 09:15:33 PM Combining the last two:
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 30, 2011, 09:29:20 PM Thanks, Xahar. :)
Btw I'm starting work on Pennsylvania, unless someone else got it. ;) Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 30, 2011, 09:46:58 PM Good work, Fuzzy. I'd be interested in seeing the larger states shaded by Obama/McCain or other election result. Thanks, but these guys did most of it. :) I'll see about getting the Presidential Results for the new districts after all the big states get done. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Jackson on December 30, 2011, 09:49:30 PM Here's Hawaii.
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: redcommander on December 30, 2011, 10:53:23 PM Here's Hawaii. () Did the districts change at all? Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on December 31, 2011, 02:05:23 AM Maryland and Texas. And we have all the finalized or semi-finalized ones, unless I'm mistaken.
New York, Virginia, and Florida are the only 'big states' left, unless Arizona counts these days. () Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Jackson on December 31, 2011, 02:09:55 AM Here's Hawaii. () Did the districts change at all? Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 31, 2011, 03:24:34 AM Sorry about this, had to fix one of the Philly districts.
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 31, 2011, 07:13:17 PM I wonder what's taking Kansas so long....
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: redcommander on January 01, 2012, 04:53:49 AM I wonder what's taking Kansas so long.... Gopers trying to gerrymander the state so there isn't a repeat of 2006 again there? Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 01, 2012, 04:13:34 PM I wonder what's taking Kansas so long.... Gopers trying to gerrymander the state so there isn't a repeat of 2006 again there? Oh, right. :P Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on January 05, 2012, 12:14:20 AM I did Presidential results for a handful of states. Are we using red for D and blue for R?
I'll go back and fill in WV again when they submit a new map. () Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 05, 2012, 12:19:19 AM I did Presidential results for a handful of states. Are we using red for D and blue for R? I'll go back and fill in WV again when they submit a new map. () Cool. Red for Dems and blue for GOP is fine. :) Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: TJ in Oregon on January 05, 2012, 12:26:32 AM Here's one with the presidential results for Ohio added. I had some trouble opening Miles's picture for some reason so I had to use an earlier one.
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on January 05, 2012, 01:39:23 AM I added TJ's Ohio; the map should be working now.
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Jackson on January 05, 2012, 02:29:58 AM Here's California.
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on January 06, 2012, 04:05:44 PM I incorporated CA. I also added TN, since I don't expect the map released today to change.
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Nhoj on January 06, 2012, 04:15:32 PM Isnt NM also pretty much done?
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on January 06, 2012, 06:09:36 PM Isnt NM also pretty much done? Yeah. Maybe we could even use the current map. NM was a minimal-change map if there ever was one. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 06, 2012, 06:21:43 PM Can we get a version of the map including TN (and NM, I guess) without the Presidential colors, for use as a base? I mean, we can easily make them ourselves with the bucket tool in MS Paint, but it might be nice to keep the addition to the base consistent in the thread.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 06, 2012, 07:44:44 PM Can we get a version of the map including TN (and NM, I guess) without the Presidential colors, for use as a base? I mean, we can easily make them ourselves with the bucket tool in MS Paint, but it might be nice to keep the addition to the base consistent in the thread. Sure, I'll get on that. :) Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: jimrtex on January 07, 2012, 12:14:42 AM Maryland and Texas. And we have all the finalized or semi-finalized ones, unless I'm mistaken. Can you use an animated gif? Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 07, 2012, 12:48:20 AM Maryland and Texas. And we have all the finalized or semi-finalized ones, unless I'm mistaken. It doesn't? I thought a court ordered interim use of these (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/09/09/1013737/-Mapping-the-New-CDs?detail=hide) districts. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: jimrtex on January 07, 2012, 05:56:05 AM Texas doesn't have any congressional districts. It doesn't? I thought a court ordered interim use of these (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/09/09/1013737/-Mapping-the-New-CDs?detail=hide) districts. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 07, 2012, 07:00:34 AM Texas doesn't have any congressional districts. It doesn't? I thought a court ordered interim use of these (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/09/09/1013737/-Mapping-the-New-CDs?detail=hide) districts. Is it known when the Supreme Court will make its decision? Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on January 07, 2012, 11:10:41 AM Texas doesn't have any congressional districts. It doesn't? I thought a court ordered interim use of these (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/09/09/1013737/-Mapping-the-New-CDs?detail=hide) districts. Is it known when the Supreme Court will make its decision? Yeah, the Supreme Court really screwed things up here. Oral arguments will start Monday. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: nclib on January 07, 2012, 11:46:38 AM Will Texas end up with one or the other of the court or legislative maps?
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: jimrtex on January 08, 2012, 03:36:18 AM Will Texas end up with one or the other of the court or legislative maps? Canseco amicus brief. http://tinyurl.com/bvrfbbu Cato institute amicus brief (discussing conflict of Section 2 and 5 of VRA) http://tinyurl.com/d9uuh8t Project for Fair Representation amicus brief arguing that CVAP should be used for drawing districts under one man one vote principles of Reynolds v Sims http://tinyurl.com/dxvlrm6 Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on January 21, 2012, 06:50:57 PM I think they ended up keeping the WV districts.
Sorry Nathan; we'll need a new TX map... :( I also added Presidential results for GA, SC, OK and NV. () Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 28, 2012, 08:50:58 PM Bump.
Does anyone have Virginia? Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 28, 2012, 10:01:14 PM When are we going to be considering Arizona and New Mexico final?
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 28, 2012, 10:42:20 PM When are we going to be considering Arizona and New Mexico final? The link that Miles gave me says that the Arizona plan is indeed final. I don't know about NM, but I think they're close to passing a map (if they haven't already). BTW Virginia's plan is officially law. https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0At9k6QrlThx6dGlNZlFBRGQtVjNud1UwaXh3aXNpdXc&output=html Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 28, 2012, 11:17:19 PM We should get Shilly in here, since he practically did all the states by himself.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 29, 2012, 10:34:06 PM Arizona added.
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_29_01_12_10_46_16.png) Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 11, 2012, 04:16:15 PM Kentucky:
() For the remaining states: NM: Basically the same. KS: I think they'll have a map out here soon. MN: No idea. FL: This map passed both chambers. (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/10/1063569/-Florida-redistricting-New-map-emerges-from-Republican-legislature?via=blog_542760) VA: I think we have a final map here. I'm not sure about NY, NH, RI and CT. Looks like we can re-do TX now. This looks like compromise map. (http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/download/Congress/PLANC226.pdf) Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: minionofmidas on February 11, 2012, 04:28:42 PM Ri passed a map. Last I checked, it was on the governor's desk, but that was some days ago. Ct has a court drawn map. TX really is more of a compromise offer. If Republicans went back and actually passed that map in the legislature and withdrew their old one, then it would probably stand up in court, but as an actual compromise it appears to not fly.
That leaves NH, NY, MN, KS and TX on the table, with TX the only one of those to even have a likely map. (KS has two, very different ones. Despite Republican control.) Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: minionofmidas on February 11, 2012, 04:34:27 PM Actually, seems like the Wyandotte-to-first-district, idea, is dead. Though second district Republicans are still balking at what losing Manhattan to the 1st and some R suburbs to the 3rd and gaining Lawrence is doing to their district, and are coming up with all sorts of alternatives, like a Wichita-to-southeast-corner fourth.
This is the main proposed map: http://redistricting.ks.gov/_Plans/Proposed_Plans/m5_sunflower9c/m5_sunflower9c.html Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: minionofmidas on February 11, 2012, 05:05:25 PM And further research reveals that Chafee has signed it. And also that CT's map, drawn by a special master some weeks ago, was officially adopted by the State Supreme Court today.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 11, 2012, 06:05:52 PM Actually, seems like the Wyandotte-to-first-district, idea, is dead. Though second district Republicans are still balking at what losing Manhattan to the 1st and some R suburbs to the 3rd and gaining Lawrence is doing to their district, and are coming up with all sorts of alternatives, like a Wichita-to-southeast-corner fourth. This is the main proposed map: http://redistricting.ks.gov/_Plans/Proposed_Plans/m5_sunflower9c/m5_sunflower9c.html Ok. I heard that a coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats were fighting the conservative Republicans over redistricting the KS legislature. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 11, 2012, 06:19:30 PM I'm tackling TX right now...
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 12, 2012, 01:48:15 AM Added KS, NM and revised TX.
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: jimrtex on February 12, 2012, 03:51:33 AM I'm tackling TX right now... I hope this doesn't take too long. The last status hearing, the SA court took a recess to call the DC court to find out when they might issue their ruling. People were able to use their cell phones for pictures during that break, and there were about 100 lawyers in the room. About 1/2 hour after the SA court had come back, they took another recess to go talk to the DC court who had called back. The next status hearing was moved from the 15th to the 14th so they could go to a 2nd day if necessary. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 12, 2012, 04:50:16 PM Added KS, NM and revised TX. () Great job! :) BTW, does that map keep the proposed new minority-majority district in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area? It kind of looks like it, but I can't quite tell. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: ilikeverin on February 12, 2012, 11:20:02 PM Re: Minnesota, I found an article which says that the courts will impose Minnesota maps on February 21 (http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/138616264.html).
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 13, 2012, 12:19:28 AM Great job! :) BTW, does that map keep the proposed new minority-majority district in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area? It kind of looks like it, but I can't quite tell. Thanks :) Yes, the district (CD-33) running through Dallas and Tarrant counties is 61% Hispanic. It reminds me of Martin Frost's old district. Re: Minnesota, I found an article which says that the courts will impose Minnesota maps on February 21 (http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/138616264.html). Great. The only major states left then would be NY and FL. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 13, 2012, 12:20:36 AM What about VA?
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 13, 2012, 12:28:16 AM What about VA? VA passed a map. (http://redistricting.dls.virginia.gov/2010/RedistrictingPlans.aspx#13,map) I think the lines are bit hard to make out. Someone could do VA. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 13, 2012, 01:13:03 AM What about VA? VA passed a map. (http://redistricting.dls.virginia.gov/2010/RedistrictingPlans.aspx#13,map) I think the lines are bit hard to make out. Someone could do VA. I'll do VA. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: CultureKing on February 13, 2012, 01:14:54 AM Is TX-18 contiguous? Also same question for TX-2.
What a disgusting map... Honestly I am amazed that people complain about California's new system when you compare it to what is happening in NC, TX, MD and IL Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 13, 2012, 01:49:25 AM Is TX-18 contiguous? Also same question for TX-2. What a disgusting map... Honestly I am amazed that people complain about California's new system when you compare it to what is happening in NC, TX, MD and IL Yep. TX-02 has an interesting crescent moon shape and 18 is similar to its current form. Here's the TX plan. (http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/download/Congress/PLANC226.pdf) I agree. Redistricting should be taken out of the hands of legislatures. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 13, 2012, 01:52:56 AM Virginia added.
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 13, 2012, 01:56:29 AM Great!
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 13, 2012, 01:59:05 AM Within ten days or so I should think we'll be able to say we've at least tentatively filled in everything south of Raritan Bay and west of Lake Erie.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: jimrtex on February 13, 2012, 04:38:31 AM Is TX-18 contiguous? Also same question for TX-2. What a disgusting map... Honestly I am amazed that people complain about California's new system when you compare it to what is happening in NC, TX, MD and IL Yep. TX-02 has an interesting crescent moon shape and 18 is similar to its current form. Here's the TX plan. (http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/download/Congress/PLANC226.pdf) I agree. Redistricting should be taken out of the hands of legislatures. Congressman Barton's interesting proposal (http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/download/Congress/PLANC227.pdf) It makes TX-20 the San Antonio to Austin district, and adds TX=35 as a Laredo to San Antonio district that surrounds TX-20. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 13, 2012, 04:47:28 AM Is TX-18 contiguous? Also same question for TX-2. What a disgusting map... Honestly I am amazed that people complain about California's new system when you compare it to what is happening in NC, TX, MD and IL Yep. TX-02 has an interesting crescent moon shape and 18 is similar to its current form. Here's the TX plan. (http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/download/Congress/PLANC226.pdf) I agree. Redistricting should be taken out of the hands of legislatures. Congressman Barton's interesting proposal (http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/download/Congress/PLANC227.pdf) It makes TX-20 the San Antonio to Austin district, and adds TX=35 as a Laredo to San Antonio district that surrounds TX-20. The DFW districts are hideous under Barton's plan. I hate how Travis county is cracked 5 ways with both plans :P Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 21, 2012, 04:46:02 PM Minnesota!
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: I'm JewCon in name only. on February 21, 2012, 05:05:28 PM Great job Miles! This is awesome!
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 21, 2012, 08:47:03 PM Here are the ratings I've come up with:
() Without NY, FL and NH, the Republicans are up by 30 seats, 194-164. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: jimrtex on February 21, 2012, 08:47:27 PM What is the hangup in NH? Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Gass3268 on February 22, 2012, 02:43:15 PM Here are the ratings I've come up with: () Without NY, FL and NH, the Republicans are up by 30 seats, 194-164. How many tossups do you have? Also I would probably put the Wisconsin 7th into the tossup group. His district was made a bit more favorable to him, but this is still predominately the same district that sent Dave Obey to Congress from 1969 to 2011, about 75%. Also Obama won the district, under the new lines, 56-43. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 22, 2012, 02:46:38 PM I count 21 tossups on Miles's map.
I agree on WI-07. All of the Lake Superior districts are pretty competitive this year (I personally tend to think Cravaack will lose and Duffy will hold on; not sure about Benishek). Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 22, 2012, 05:14:22 PM WI-07 is actually now 53.1% Obama, down from 55.8%. The Republicans gave Kind a pass in order to shore-up Duffy. If I recall, this district wasn't very high on Steve Israel's Red-to-Blue list either. The district is still very much in Democrats' reach, but I think the DCCC is focusing its energy elsewhere. So, I'll give Duffy the benefit of the doubt here.
I do agree with Nathan that Cravaack is more likely to lose. AT the state level, WI-07 seems to be swingy, but MN-08 is reliably Democrat. Eh, I just noticed that UT-04 should be Lean D, not Strong D. I'll have an updated map in a few weeks though. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Brittain33 on February 22, 2012, 08:23:28 PM Isn't Duffy kind of a weak incumbent? He had plenty of not-ready-for-prime-time moments in 2011. Yes, he's young and dynamic and all that but he's no Aaron Schock and he doesn't have Schock's district,
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: krazen1211 on February 23, 2012, 12:00:10 AM Is TX-18 contiguous? Also same question for TX-2. What a disgusting map... Honestly I am amazed that people complain about California's new system when you compare it to what is happening in NC, TX, MD and IL Yep. TX-02 has an interesting crescent moon shape and 18 is similar to its current form. Here's the TX plan. (http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/download/Congress/PLANC226.pdf) I agree. Redistricting should be taken out of the hands of legislatures. Congressman Barton's interesting proposal (http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/download/Congress/PLANC227.pdf) It makes TX-20 the San Antonio to Austin district, and adds TX=35 as a Laredo to San Antonio district that surrounds TX-20. The DFW districts are hideous under Barton's plan. I hate how Travis county is cracked 5 ways with both plans :P What an interesting map. The Houston area still sucks for the GOP (2, 8, 36 are megapacks). They could at least make the Denton to Tarrant finger cleaner. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: timothyinMD on February 23, 2012, 01:49:35 AM AR 1 toss up but PA 12 Leans Dem? Hah, seriously?
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 23, 2012, 02:15:06 AM AR 1 toss up but PA 12 Leans Dem? Hah, seriously? Yes... Would you care to show us your map? Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 23, 2012, 04:53:44 AM AR 1 toss up but PA 12 Leans Dem? Hah, seriously? Yes... Would you care to show us your map? It's on! :D Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Gass3268 on February 23, 2012, 04:20:08 PM AR 1 toss up but PA 12 Leans Dem? Hah, seriously? Yes... Would you care to show us your map? It's on! :D Like Donkey Kong! Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 23, 2012, 05:30:51 PM Things have now become very much like Donkey Kong.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on February 23, 2012, 09:18:31 PM Miles, did you put Roskam as lean GOP?
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 23, 2012, 09:27:09 PM Miles, did you put Roskam as lean GOP? Yes. He's running in a 51% Obama district down from 56%. Probably Strong R. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on February 23, 2012, 09:34:35 PM Making my own right now, changes so far:
CO-06 - Tossup > Lean GOP Coffman seems like a reasonable guy. Obama could sink him of course, but that is the only way I see him losing. Now if Tancredo were still here, it would be strong Dem. IA-04 - Tossup > Lean GOP King is weak, but he is still an incumbent ILL-06 - Lean GOP > Strong GOP Roskam is a strong GOP incumbent in a GOP pack seat ILL-13? - Tossup > Lean GOP Need more information, but from what I read earlier, it didn't sound like things were going that well in getting Johnson ousted, but we'll see. NV-03 - Tossup > Lean GOP Heck will have a tough race, but most of the reviews of his campaign ability I have seen are positive. NV-04 - Lean Dem > Strong Dem I don't think the GOP is even gonna try here, not with Presidential turnout UT-02? - Strong Dem > to Lean Dem. It is a heavily GOP seat, in a presidential year, and it is newly redrawn. Sure, Matheson is all that and has been through this before, but I am not ready to declare it a certainty. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on February 23, 2012, 09:39:30 PM Miles, did you put Roskam as lean GOP? Yes. He's running in a 51% Obama district down from 56%. Probably Strong R. Aside from gaining a bunch of new territory, I don't see why he would have trouble. In 2008, he got 58% in a district Obama came in around the mid 50's, now it is 51% Obama. And the new territory is Republican leaning stuff from the old 8th. I think the Dems will focus on the 8th, 10th and 11th in that area of the state, and 12th, 13th and 17th downstate. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 23, 2012, 09:52:00 PM UT-02? - Strong Dem > to Lean Dem. It is a heavily GOP seat, in a presidential year, and it is newly redrawn. Sure, Matheson is all that and has been through this before, but I am not ready to declare it a certainty. I should have put Matheson's district as Lean D too, instead of Safe D. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: I'm JewCon in name only. on February 23, 2012, 10:24:54 PM I think Matheson should win 53-54 percent of the vote in that district.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 23, 2012, 10:34:42 PM I think Matheson should win 53-54 percent of the vote in that district. It's 56% McCain; a few points to the left of what he has now. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: I'm JewCon in name only. on February 23, 2012, 10:40:28 PM I think Matheson should win 53-54 percent of the vote in that district. It's 56% McCain; a few points to the left of what he has now. It's under 60% McCain? Than he should be golden imo. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: nclib on February 23, 2012, 11:53:24 PM Can someone update the map for Obama/McCain results?
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 24, 2012, 12:06:30 AM Can someone update the map for Obama/McCain results? On it. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 24, 2012, 12:27:45 AM Can someone update the map for Obama/McCain results? On it. BTW I corrected the Pennsylvania map. A couple districts were a little bit connected. () (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_24_02_12_12_26_15.png) Sorry for the trouble. :( Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 24, 2012, 12:52:49 AM Fuzzy, you still have a broken line between PA-03 and PA-05.
I've fixed it. lol Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on February 24, 2012, 12:53:31 AM Miles, did you put Bilbray as Strong GOP? :P
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 24, 2012, 01:02:44 AM Miles, did you put Bilbray as Strong GOP? :P Yes. I think I had most of the GOP incumbents in CA safe except for Miller and Lungren (who's in a tossup against Bera). Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 24, 2012, 04:07:10 AM This is what I have so far for Presidential results.
A quick note about the colors. I added a >55% color interval to distinguish the marginal districts; this changed the color scheme up a bit. I'm using the >30% color for >40% districts, the >40% color for >50% districts and the >50% color for >55% districts. Other than that, the darker colors are the same. () I heard that Giffords' district was now an Obama district, but I found the official map in DRA and it had McCain ahead. Can anyone clarify that? Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: minionofmidas on February 24, 2012, 05:21:05 AM The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 24, 2012, 05:52:21 AM I heard that Giffords' district was now an Obama district, but I found the official map in DRA and it had McCain ahead. Can anyone clarify that? What I heard was that it was very nearly tied and absent an Arizona Republican candidate might be thought more likely than not to go for Obama relative to the rest of Arizona. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 24, 2012, 10:18:36 AM The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)? Both. The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction. The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 24, 2012, 06:23:47 PM ()
Obama- 168 McCain- 154 Once all the districts are drawn, I think Obama should have in the neighborhood of 225-230. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: nclib on February 24, 2012, 06:38:36 PM Good work, Miles. I especially like the 55% gradient.
Have Petri's CD and Wolf's CD been confirmed for Obama and McCain respectively? (They're both listed as tied). I think Mich.'s UP is still Obama. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 24, 2012, 06:45:45 PM Here's where I got some of the states. (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/13/1054554/-Presidential-results-by-congressional-district,-2011-12?detail=hide)
Yes, Petri is still Obama. They bumped Wolfe up to 50/50 McCain. Yes, you're right. Benishek is still has an Obama district. I'm still not entirely sure about AZ-02 and KS-03. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 24, 2012, 07:16:30 PM Great work, as usual. :)
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 24, 2012, 11:24:02 PM How about New York? Where are we on that?
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: minionofmidas on February 25, 2012, 04:25:20 AM The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)? Both. The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction. The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 25, 2012, 12:11:55 PM The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)? Both. The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction. The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results. Duh.... Thats why I posted 2 types of maps. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 25, 2012, 10:11:00 PM If some brave soul wants to do Florida, we could use this map (http://censusvalidator.blob.core.windows.net/mydistrictbuilderdata/Legislative%20Plans/H000C9047_8x11.pdf), at least for now.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 25, 2012, 11:19:09 PM If some brave soul wants to do Florida, we could use this map (http://censusvalidator.blob.core.windows.net/mydistrictbuilderdata/Legislative%20Plans/H000C9047_8x11.pdf), at least for now. I'm on it. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: minionofmidas on February 26, 2012, 04:50:11 PM What is the hangup in NH? Republican leaders in the House are standing together in an attempt to quash dissension in their party regarding the new map. The House delegation from Manchester said they oppose the plan as they believe it could cost the city two representatives. To that end, they agreed to sustain a veto by Gov. John Lynch (D) that they believe will occur. In response, a five-page letter blasting critics of the plan and signed by over 40 Republican House members was sent out to all members of the chamber. The House previously passed the bill by a vote of 205-68, but it must now pass the Senate, who is not expected to vote on it until next month. On the congressional side, U.S. Reps. Frank Guinta (R) and Charlie Bass (R) must have their districts balanced--their two districts are about 200-300 individuals apart. That has reportedly led to a long internal party fight behind-the-scenes. Republican leaders and Guinta are said to want minimal changes, while Bass is seeking to add a number of Republican towns to his district, including Merrimack, Hampstead and Plaistow. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 26, 2012, 05:00:46 PM Sigh...moving 200-300 people shouldn't be that hard...
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 26, 2012, 05:30:37 PM Florida added
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_26_02_12_5_29_24.png) Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 27, 2012, 07:22:14 AM Only two more states!
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2012, 08:41:47 AM Florida added () (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_26_02_12_5_29_24.png) Man this is so ugly... Something must be done for gerrymandering, and soon. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 27, 2012, 01:27:20 PM Man this is so ugly... Something must be done for gerrymandering, and soon. Amen. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on February 27, 2012, 09:41:00 PM Good luck getting it in NC, neither party wants to rain on the parade because they want the ability to get revenge against the other 10 years from now. Same old story. And it takes Legislative passage to start a Consitutional amendment, so one of the parties would have to be on board.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 29, 2012, 01:12:15 AM I took a stab at the Florida congressional races:
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_29_02_12_6_47_21.png) Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on February 29, 2012, 02:51:21 AM Good. The thing that frustrates me about FL is that there are a lot of marginal districts but most of them are either held by entrenched GOP incumbents (e.g, Bill Young, Ros-Lethenin) or more strongly Republican on the state level.
I think I'd put Riviera as a tossup at least...he's an awful incumbent in a 50% Obama district. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: minionofmidas on February 29, 2012, 08:06:43 AM The new Orlando seat and the seat West ran from should be lean D.
Just noticed MO-2. Should be lean R. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 29, 2012, 06:38:14 PM The new Orlando seat and the seat West ran from should be lean D. Just noticed MO-2. Should be lean R. Both of those Florida districts were tough calls. Orlando was very close during 2004, but went for Obama by almost 20 percentage points. I'm not sure that the presidential results can be trusted to make an accurate prediction on how the district leans, seeing as though the most recent results could have been more of a fluke (maybe ???). Another factor is that neither of the candidates running in the genreal will be an incumbent, thus they're less known and can run from the party label and capitalize on voter ignorance (to an extent). The final factor I can think of is Alan Greyson. If he wins the primary, he could have some trouble cleaning his name from his last run to win the general this time around. As for Allen West's district, it still contains a bunch of the Republican areas along the shores of greater Miami, so I think it could go either way. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 29, 2012, 06:43:08 PM Good. The thing that frustrates me about FL is that there are a lot of marginal districts but most of them are either held by entrenched GOP incumbents (e.g, Bill Young, Ros-Lethenin) or more strongly Republican on the state level. I think I'd put Riviera as a tossup at least...he's an awful incumbent in a 50% Obama district. Thanks, I'll get on it. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: I'm JewCon in name only. on February 29, 2012, 10:19:28 PM Good, I hope Rivera loses badly. He stinks of massive corruption, and sleaziness.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on March 06, 2012, 03:59:20 PM I drew the special master's map of New York. It may change, but I'm at least using it for my timeline. Obviously, there was only so much I could to accurately draw the NYC districts.
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on March 07, 2012, 10:41:47 PM :)
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on April 02, 2012, 07:41:06 AM Good job.
I may alter the color scheme a bit. The one I'm using for my precinct-level maps is a 5% scale too, so I may switch over to that one for this map. ...it just kinda bugs me to have pink on the map for the D>40% districts. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on April 12, 2012, 09:14:52 PM 'Looks very good!
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 12, 2012, 09:27:28 PM Those NC and FL Democratic vote sinks look pretty ridiculous.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on April 12, 2012, 09:32:51 PM DKE has TX numbers posted!
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 12, 2012, 09:34:41 PM DKE has TX numbers posted! () :D Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Yelnoc on April 12, 2012, 10:02:51 PM Those NC and FL Democratic vote sinks look pretty ridiculous. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: tpfkaw on April 12, 2012, 10:08:59 PM Those NC and FL Democratic vote sinks look pretty ridiculous. FL was drawn by a non-partisan commission, IIRC. Blame the VRA. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario) on April 12, 2012, 10:25:36 PM Those NC and FL Democratic vote sinks look pretty ridiculous. FL was drawn by a non-partisan commission, IIRC. Blame the VRA. No, the state legislature drew the map. It's just that now there is a state constitutional amendment imposing stricter rules on the process. Fat lot of good that did. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: greenforest32 on April 13, 2012, 12:44:56 AM Do we have national numbers yet for the likely (or PVI) seat distributions?
Seems like Republicans are going to have a higher floor in 2010 redistricting than 2000 with these maps. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on April 13, 2012, 12:51:57 AM Do we have national numbers yet for the likely (or PVI) seat distributions? I estimated the national totals a while ago and had Obama winning about 225-230 CDs, down from 242 under the old lines. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: greenforest32 on April 13, 2012, 01:45:58 AM Do we have national numbers yet for the likely (or PVI) seat distributions? I estimated the national totals a while ago and had Obama winning about 225-230 CDs, down from 242 under the old lines. Interesting. I'm also kind of surprised by what looks like a majority of geographically large districts in New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada being red. No other states (maybe Illinois) seem to have that given the current rural and suburban voting distributions. Due to Republican control of redistricting? Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Joe Republic on April 13, 2012, 01:57:23 AM I'm also kind of surprised by what looks like a majority of geographically large districts in New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada being red. The large central district in Nevada (the new 4th district) is dominated by the heavily black/Hispanic and generally economically deprived North Las Vegas. The northern district (the 2nd) is of course based in Reno. Obama's margins in those two cities were large enough to turn both of these huge districts red simply because the desert areas are just that unpopulated. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: jimrtex on April 13, 2012, 02:29:16 AM FL was drawn by a non-partisan commission, IIRC. Blame the VRA. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 13, 2012, 05:01:16 AM Maybe it's just my impression, but NY (or at least upstate) seems exceptionally "clean" to me. Did they actually get a sound bipartisan compromise ?
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Brittain33 on April 13, 2012, 08:30:50 AM FL was drawn by a non-partisan commission, IIRC. Blame the VRA. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 13, 2012, 12:44:10 PM Sorry, some of the Indiana districts were 40% GOP when they where supposed to be 50% GOP. But I fixed it.
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_13_04_12_12_36_08.png) Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on April 13, 2012, 01:00:13 PM Do we have national numbers yet for the likely (or PVI) seat distributions? I estimated the national totals a while ago and had Obama winning about 225-230 CDs, down from 242 under the old lines. Interesting. I'm also kind of surprised by what looks like a majority of geographically large districts in New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada being red. No other states (maybe Illinois) seem to have that given the current rural and suburban voting distributions. Due to Republican control of redistricting? Actually, my estimate was a bit low. I ran the tally again and, assuming Obama won both NH districts, he's won 234 districts overall on the new map. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Padfoot on April 13, 2012, 01:52:23 PM Do we have national numbers yet for the likely (or PVI) seat distributions? I estimated the national totals a while ago and had Obama winning about 225-230 CDs, down from 242 under the old lines. Interesting. I'm also kind of surprised by what looks like a majority of geographically large districts in New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada being red. No other states (maybe Illinois) seem to have that given the current rural and suburban voting distributions. Due to Republican control of redistricting? Actually, my estimate was a bit low. I ran the tally again and, assuming Obama won both NH districts, he's won 234 districts overall on the new map. This, to me says that if Democrats don't win back the House then they need to get some better people recruiting candidates. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 13, 2012, 02:47:47 PM Maybe it's just my impression, but NY (or at least upstate) seems exceptionally "clean" to me. Did they actually get a sound bipartisan compromise ? Sort of. A court drew the map. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 15, 2012, 02:02:26 AM I clicked on DK's link to the Texas numbers, and it gave me North Carolina instead. :( Same thing for their Washington link.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: nclib on April 15, 2012, 11:02:51 AM I clicked on DK's link to the Texas numbers, and it gave me North Carolina instead. :( Same thing for their Washington link. Yeah, me too. If anyone here has an account at DKE, they should post that in the comments. (Though I don't mind the attention to my state's crazy maps ;)) Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on April 15, 2012, 11:11:32 AM I clicked on DK's link to the Texas numbers, and it gave me North Carolina instead. :( Same thing for their Washington link. Is this for the new Pres-by-CD numbers? Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 15, 2012, 11:17:34 AM Here's a better link for the DKE stuff. (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/17/1051740/-Daily-Kos-Elections-complete-redistricting-resources?detail=hide)
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on April 15, 2012, 02:32:55 PM Maybe it's just my impression, but NY (or at least upstate) seems exceptionally "clean" to me. Did they actually get a sound bipartisan compromise ? There is no way in hell the legislature would have done that good a job. It was of course, a court drawn affair. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: jimrtex on April 16, 2012, 12:18:28 PM FL was drawn by a non-partisan commission, IIRC. Blame the VRA. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: nclib on April 16, 2012, 08:30:15 PM Good map. It would be good to have a Kerry/Bush map where possible (even if no shading). Plenty of states have that information available (CA, PA, NJ, NY, etc.) and others (at-large states, New England, Deep South) are easily discernable.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Sbane on April 16, 2012, 11:01:45 PM Do we have national numbers yet for the likely (or PVI) seat distributions? I estimated the national totals a while ago and had Obama winning about 225-230 CDs, down from 242 under the old lines. Interesting. I'm also kind of surprised by what looks like a majority of geographically large districts in New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada being red. No other states (maybe Illinois) seem to have that given the current rural and suburban voting distributions. Due to Republican control of redistricting? Actually, my estimate was a bit low. I ran the tally again and, assuming Obama won both NH districts, he's won 234 districts overall on the new map. This, to me says that if Democrats don't win back the House then they need to get some better people recruiting candidates. The question is, how many of these districts did Obama win by less than 5? Those districts aren't guaranteed pickups and in places Obama over-performed they are basically republican districts. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on April 17, 2012, 01:02:49 AM I hope this helps more people than it confuses. I colored the CDs based on their numbers; I thought it would be a good reference. The color scheme is from DRA with a few modifications. Let me know if there are any errors. I'll add NH when its officially done w/ redistricting.
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: muon2 on April 20, 2012, 08:21:25 AM Why is KS colored in? They don't have a congressional map yet.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: jimrtex on April 20, 2012, 11:09:58 AM Why is KS colored in? They don't have a congressional map yet. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on April 20, 2012, 11:25:53 AM Why is KS colored in? They don't have a congressional map yet. That was just the map we went with for the time being. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: muon2 on April 20, 2012, 02:53:48 PM Why is KS colored in? They don't have a congressional map yet. That was just the map we went with for the time being. Then why not treat it like NH? Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on May 28, 2012, 05:49:41 PM Bump
Kansas is the last state not to pass an official plan. Here's New Hampshire, btw: http://images.dailykos.com/i/user/303419/NH_map.html Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on May 28, 2012, 05:56:19 PM I think Miles drew a copy of it as well.....
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on May 29, 2012, 04:26:57 PM I think Miles drew a copy of it as well..... Yeah, I drew NH. I'll go dig it up... We'll also have to change KS as some point as well. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Horus on June 06, 2012, 05:12:05 PM Very, very early predictions. Didn't have time to be as detailed as I like to be, but this is my gut feeling map. I'm sure it will change quite a bit. I'm just assuming the KS map will stick, although I know that isn't likely.
() Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on June 06, 2012, 08:47:47 PM Why is the Delta district in Mississippi not the red one?
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on June 06, 2012, 09:50:01 PM I think Miles drew a copy of it as well..... Yeah, I drew NH. I'll go dig it up... Here we go: () Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 06, 2012, 11:24:08 PM Very, very early predictions. Didn't have time to be as detailed as I like to be, but this is my gut feeling map. I'm sure it will change quite a bit. I'm just assuming the KS map will stick, although I know that isn't likely. () I'd probably favor the GOP in the Bucks County district, while Critz will probably hold on. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Horus on June 07, 2012, 10:51:55 AM Very, very early predictions. Didn't have time to be as detailed as I like to be, but this is my gut feeling map. I'm sure it will change quite a bit. I'm just assuming the KS map will stick, although I know that isn't likely. () I'd probably favor the GOP in the Bucks County district, while Critz will probably hold on. I've made a few changes to the map already. Since you know the state better than I, I will take your word on the Bucks county district. I've narrowed the gap in the Critz district but I still feel like this year will be sub-par for dems in working class white districts and he'll be one of the victims. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Brittain33 on June 07, 2012, 02:00:59 PM I don't think Hayworth loses.
Nice work! 435 races so you'll get some nitpicks and disagreement. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 07, 2012, 02:16:39 PM Oh, and you did fill in the wrong district in Mississippi. It should be the delta district that is safe D.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Brittain33 on June 07, 2012, 03:06:36 PM Is this map showing presidential or congressional winners?
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Horus on June 07, 2012, 03:52:05 PM Is this map showing presidential or congressional winners? Congressional, although I think that may line up more with presidential than any year before. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on June 08, 2012, 03:20:21 PM The KS court-drawn map:
() I'll update the cumulative map. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on June 08, 2012, 07:02:09 PM This looks like the final map (at least for 2012).
I added NH, modified KS and fixed the VA Pres-by-CD numbers. () Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: nclib on June 08, 2012, 09:07:15 PM Good map. It would be good to have a Kerry/Bush map where possible (even if no shading). Plenty of states have that information available (CA, PA, NJ, NY, etc.) and others (at-large states, New England, Deep South) are easily discernable. Anyone want to try this? Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Linus Van Pelt on June 10, 2012, 02:01:46 PM This looks like the final map (at least for 2012). I added NH, modified KS and fixed the VA Pres-by-CD numbers. () Nice work, guys. One thing though - did McCain really win the northern NM district? That seems like a possible mistake to me. Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: minionofmidas on June 10, 2012, 02:52:09 PM Obama cracked 60 there.
Title: Re: Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map Post by: Miles on June 10, 2012, 11:17:27 PM The corrected map.
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