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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Hash on December 16, 2011, 05:20:00 pm



Title: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on December 16, 2011, 05:20:00 pm
Expected in February 2012 and posted because I found this poll amusing:

ND 30%
PASOK 15.5%
SYRIZA 14%
KKE 13.5%
Dem Left 9.5%
Nazis 6%
Greenies 4%
DISY 3%
Others 4.5%

It would be great if the KKE placed second!


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on December 16, 2011, 05:29:56 pm
If the forces of the "hard" left united, they could win this election...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on December 16, 2011, 05:31:37 pm
Bit like the Spanish election: they hate both main parties.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on December 16, 2011, 06:03:57 pm
Bit like the Spanish election: they hate both main parties.

In Spain, the PP, despite running an incompetent campaign with an incompetent leader that nobody seems to like, managed to win the best result in their history.

Meanwhile, according to this poll, the ND would be the biggest party in parliament despite actually getting a smaller share of the vote than in 2009.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on December 16, 2011, 06:06:15 pm
If there is one single depressing election in the world's history, it will probably be this one.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on December 16, 2011, 06:17:43 pm
Actually, I have to wonder.. if that result came to pass, would sort of government would form?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: RodPresident on December 16, 2011, 06:30:29 pm
Probably Papademos remains as PM, unless PASOK wants to show that is left and accept a nationalist left-wing pro-default coalition.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on December 16, 2011, 06:48:04 pm
What are the differences between the Dem Left and PASOK? Don't both parties want to remain in the Eurozone and accept austerity measures? Although I'd imagine the Dem Left is more friendly towards SYRIZA, seeing as they're a breakaway party, there doesn't seem to be very many substantial differences between them.

I'm really curious to see that if the disparate leftist/anti-euro forces can settle their differences after this election to end this ordeal. Stranger things have happened...

edit: I'm hoping for a KKE or SYRIZA overperformance


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MaxQue on December 16, 2011, 06:58:45 pm
What happened to the old Synapsiamos?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 17, 2011, 04:36:56 am
If the forces of the "hard" left united, they could win this election...
There are historical reasons why they won't. :(

What happened to the old Synapsiamos?
Renamed (merged with some minor organizations to form Syriza).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on December 17, 2011, 09:24:16 am
Probably Papademos remains as PM, unless PASOK wants to show that is left and accept a nationalist left-wing pro-default coalition.

Sure, if they want to destroy Europe and proceed to be shunned from the continent.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 19, 2011, 02:55:26 am
Figuring in the majority bonus, here's how Parliament would look with those results:

(http://i.imgur.com/F23jA.png)

And this is what it would look like if the three parties of the left were amalgamated:

(http://i.imgur.com/DYtyi.png)

If the forces of the "hard" left united, they could win this election...

There are historical reasons why they won't. :(

It would certainly be hilarious if the Communists took Greece 65 years late.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on December 19, 2011, 04:32:15 am
Figuring in the majority bonus, here's how Parliament would look with those results:

(http://i.imgur.com/F23jA.png)

And this is what it would look like if the three parties of the left were amalgamated:

(http://i.imgur.com/DYtyi.png)

What a shame it will never happen...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on December 19, 2011, 06:18:34 am
The majority bonus and whatever in the world Italy's system is technically called are probably the most flagrantly absurd electoral systems going right now, at least on paper. Straight-out just allocating blocks of seats to whoever got the most votes just rubs me the wrong way.


 One-day-newer poll: (http://www.metronanalysis.gr/gr/polls/ziped/pub1595FORUM.pdf)

ND 29.3%
PASOK 17.1%
KKE 13.6%
SYRIZA 10.7%
LAOS 9.2%
DIMAR 5.9%
Greens 5.8%
DISY 2.5%
Others 5.9%

By my very rough calculations that comes out to:

ND 123
PASOK 49
KKE 39
SYRIZA 30
LAOS 26
DIMAR 17
Greens 16

Bear in mind that with the 3% election threshold DISY misses out on representation with these numbers. Isn't it sad, DISY?

United Left:

Left 126
ND 83
PASOK 49
LAOS 26
Greens 16


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 19, 2011, 06:21:06 am
The majority bonus and whatever in the world Italy's system is technically called are probably the most flagrantly absurd electoral systems going right now, at least on paper. Straight-out just allocating blocks of seats to whoever got the most votes just rubs me the wrong way.
French local elections have that too.

There is a logic to it though - ensuring the winner has a thumping majority that can take some defections but the loser (and especially the losing side's lead personnel) cannot be locked out of the council/parliament/whatever, as can happen under fptp systems.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on December 19, 2011, 06:37:55 am
There is a logic to it though - ensuring the winner has a thumping majority that can take some defections but the loser (and especially the losing side's lead personnel) cannot be locked out of the council/parliament/whatever, as can happen under fptp systems.

I understand the logic behind it but I still think it's chimerical in...well, let's just say a way that doesn't appeal to me.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on December 19, 2011, 07:53:30 am
I like numerical majority bonuses (those like the Greek one, which consists in a block of seats awarded to a party) as long as they aren't too big (16.67%, which means you need 40% for a majority, is my upper limit). That said, the Italian system sucks indeed. You could get 20% and still win 55% of the seats.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on December 19, 2011, 11:11:58 am
I like numerical majority bonuses (those like the Greek one, which consists in a block of seats awarded to a party) as long as they aren't too big (16.67%, which means you need 40% for a majority, is my upper limit). That said, the Italian system sucks indeed. You could get 20% and still win 55% of the seats.

What happened to proportionality and fairly representing the intent of the voters? ;)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Iannis on December 20, 2011, 06:02:32 am
There is a logic to it though - ensuring the winner has a thumping majority that can take some defections but the loser (and especially the losing side's lead personnel) cannot be locked out of the council/parliament/whatever, as can happen under fptp systems.

I understand the logic behind it but I still think it's chimerical in...well, let's just say a way that doesn't appeal to me.

 Of course proportional representation is the best but this bonus is anyway far better than FPTP. In practice, it is an incentive for broad colitions. In the 2 occasions in which it has been used in Italy the winning coalition neve had less than 46,8% of votes, and even according present polls the winning coalition would have 45%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on December 20, 2011, 06:17:21 am
I like numerical majority bonuses (those like the Greek one, which consists in a block of seats awarded to a party) as long as they aren't too big (16.67%, which means you need 40% for a majority, is my upper limit). That said, the Italian system sucks indeed. You could get 20% and still win 55% of the seats.

What happened to proportionality and fairly representing the intent of the voters? ;)

It's still 1000 times fairer than constituency voting, where a party can get less votes than another and still win more seats.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 20, 2011, 06:18:38 am
I do like the bit of the Italian law about members of coalitions that fall by the threshold having their votes transferred to their coalition partners.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on December 20, 2011, 06:28:16 am
There is a logic to it though - ensuring the winner has a thumping majority that can take some defections but the loser (and especially the losing side's lead personnel) cannot be locked out of the council/parliament/whatever, as can happen under fptp systems.

I understand the logic behind it but I still think it's chimerical in...well, let's just say a way that doesn't appeal to me.

 Of course proportional representation is the best but this bonus is anyway far better than FPTP. In practice, it is an incentive for broad colitions. In the 2 occasions in which it has been used in Italy the winning coalition neve had less than 46,8% of votes, and even according present polls the winning coalition would have 45%

There's still a huge moral problem : the winning coalition wins the same number of seats no matter its results. Which also means that, the lower the results of the winning coalition are, the more other parties will be underrepresented. It might not have been a huge problem for general elections until now, but look at the current municipal council, where the De Magistris coalition holds 64% of the seats despite winning only 17% of the vote !!! That's pretty insane.

Also note that a 10% numerical majority bonus would have given the winning coalitions the same number (or slightly more) seats in 2006 and 2008.


I do like the bit of the Italian law about members of coalitions that fall by the threshold having their votes transferred to their coalition partners.

Yes, this is a very good thing. One of the main problem with election thresholds is the spoiler effect of little parties, and the Italian system has solved this problem. The majority bonus system is still pretty awful though.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 20, 2011, 07:35:43 am
Ultimately it's an example of an electoral law that attempts to have its cake and eat it.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on December 20, 2011, 09:43:12 am
Probably Papademos remains as PM, unless PASOK wants to show that is left and accept a nationalist left-wing pro-default coalition.

Sure, if they want to destroy Europe and proceed to be shunned from the continent.

More's the pity that similar results aren't being replicated across Europe.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 20, 2011, 01:37:43 pm
Proportional representation with a majority bonus combines the worst features of PR (unelected legislators) with the worst features of FPTP (legislature unrepresentative of popular vote).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on December 20, 2011, 02:04:39 pm
Proportional representation with a majority bonus combines the worst features of PR (unelected legislators) with the worst features of FPTP (legislature unrepresentative of popular vote).

Gosh, how many times will I have to repeat that ?

PREFERENTIAL VOTING

And besides that, PR with a small majority bonus is still way more representative of popular vote than any form of constituency-based system.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 20, 2011, 03:12:09 pm
And besides that, PR with a small majority bonus is still way more representative of popular vote than any form of constituency-based system.

But a system based on single member constituencies is not supposed to be representative of the overall popular vote.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on December 20, 2011, 03:16:56 pm
And besides that, PR with a small majority bonus is still way more representative of popular vote than any form of constituency-based system.

But a system based on single member constituencies is not supposed to be representative of the overall popular vote.

Yes, I've heard people who consider it's more important to represent "the country's diversity" and to have MPs closely tied to a small community. Besides the fact FPP rarely actually achieve that (because that requires 1-a very large number of seats 2-that MPs are actually freeminded and not party hacks ; I don't know any country where those two criteria are met, and most don't meet either of them), I personally don't think it's important at all.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 20, 2011, 03:19:52 pm
Yes, I've heard people who consider it's more important to represent "the country's diversity" and to have MPs closely tied to a small community. Besides the fact FPP rarely actually achieve that (because that requires 1-a very large number of seats 2-that MPs are actually freeminded and not party hacks ; I don't know any country where those two criteria are met, and most don't meet either of them), I personally don't think it's important at all.

The actual problem is that constituencies are rarely drawn with that kind of thing in mind. And that, even when they are, not every constituency is a stronghold for party x, party y, or whoever. And that, even in strongholds, there are always people who hate the dominant party. And so on.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on December 20, 2011, 03:43:31 pm
Yes, I've heard people who consider it's more important to represent "the country's diversity" and to have MPs closely tied to a small community. Besides the fact FPP rarely actually achieve that (because that requires 1-a very large number of seats 2-that MPs are actually freeminded and not party hacks ; I don't know any country where those two criteria are met, and most don't meet either of them), I personally don't think it's important at all.

The actual problem is that constituencies are rarely drawn with that kind of thing in mind. And that, even when they are, not every constituency is a stronghold for party x, party y, or whoever. And that, even in strongholds, there are always people who hate the dominant party. And so on.

You're right, this is certainly the biggest issue. Further reason why, even in the only logic that would make FPP legitimate, it's still ineffective.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 20, 2011, 03:50:12 pm
You're right, this is certainly the biggest issue. Further reason why, even in the only logic that would make FPP legitimate, it's still ineffective.

Well, no electoral system is exactly effective, at least not all the time, at least not always in practice. But rigged PR systems are just silly.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on December 20, 2011, 04:12:03 pm
You're right, this is certainly the biggest issue. Further reason why, even in the only logic that would make FPP legitimate, it's still ineffective.

Well, no electoral system is exactly effective, at least not all the time, at least not always in practice. But rigged PR systems are just silly.

Why so ? I hear this so often but I've never heard a convincing argument of what's so wrong with majority-bonus PR.

Consider this system : national PR, 10% majority bonus, 4% electoral threshold. That means that the assembly's composition will be, in the worst case, similar to the PV at around 80%. That also means the winning party needs around 40% of the popular vote to win a majority. The system is reasonably fair, and makes electoral majorities far easier (coalitions might still be the rule, but we'd avoid deadlocked parliaments). If you want popularly elected MPs, just make the attribution of seats to people (not the repartition to parties) based on multi-members constituencies and use preferential voting. Problem solved.

How can this system be considered worse than any kind of consituency-based system ?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 20, 2011, 05:13:29 pm
Why so ? I hear this so often but I've never heard a convincing argument of what's so wrong with majority-bonus PR

Because it is an attempt to have your cake and eat it. If you accept the principle of proportionality, then you also have to accept (as a direct consequence) that traditional majoritarianism is less than entirely ideal. It's the sort of 'solution' to the 'problems' caused by proportional systems that could only ever be beloved by the political elite (however defined).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on December 21, 2011, 06:00:41 am
Why so ? I hear this so often but I've never heard a convincing argument of what's so wrong with majority-bonus PR

Because it is an attempt to have your cake and eat it. If you accept the principle of proportionality, then you also have to accept (as a direct consequence) that traditional majoritarianism is less than entirely ideal. It's the sort of 'solution' to the 'problems' caused by proportional systems that could only ever be beloved by the political elite (however defined).

I really don't get it. What's wrong with having the cake and eating it, if we actually can ? Majority bonus PR is infinitely more representative than any constituency-based system, and avoids most of its shortcomings. I don't know why we should see things in black or white (either a perfectly fair system which causes instability, or an utterly unfair system which ensures strong majorities) instead of looking for pragmatic solutions which take into account both issues ?

Of course, it's not my favorite system. I support full PR in countries that have prove able to have a stable political system with it (namely, the scandinavians or Germany). But sometimes full PR is a disaster (say, 4th Republic France, Weimar Germany, etc...) and in such case I prefer to correct it with majority bonuses rather than swtching to a really unfair system like FPP.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: republicanism on December 21, 2011, 01:10:23 pm
I really don't get it. What's wrong with having the cake and eating it, if we actually can ? Majority bonus PR is infinitely more representative than any constituency-based system, and avoids most of its shortcomings.

But in a constituency-based system, every member of parliament can rely on a personal vote. He is supported by more people in his constituency than anyone else. That is a great thing if you ask me. The single MP is more independent in his voting, and, at least theoretically: No one is really save.
Tony Blair could have lost his super-safe constituency in Newcastle (right?, somewhere in Durham I think), if only a few thousand people voted another way around as they did. That is the charme of FPTP: No one is really save.

On the other hand, Schröder, Müntefering, Steinmeier and Steinbrück would have been elected in the Bundestag even if the SPD would have been down to 5,1% in 2009. No voter could have done anything to avoid that.

And majority bonus PR combines the non-proportionality of FPTP and the ultimate power of party bosses of list-PF.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on December 21, 2011, 02:34:55 pm
Now, you're really pissing me off.

Gosh, how many times will I have to repeat that ?

PREFERENTIAL VOTING


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 21, 2011, 02:42:52 pm
More seriously, the represent-a-community thing is why the idea doesn't seem as offensive in local elections (for smaller municipalities) as it does in federal parliaments.

And besides, a threshold to representation is not really all that different from a plurality bonus.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: RodPresident on December 21, 2011, 02:49:25 pm
Draft Arianna Huffington to run to be Greek PM...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 21, 2011, 04:56:00 pm
Open-list PR isn't nearly the same as single-member districts when it comes to members having a personal mandate. I've never heard of a person losing his seat because of open-list PR; indeed, the only example that I can think of offhand where it made a difference was in southern Italy in the good old days, when DC voters would also check the name of the local boss.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Iannis on December 22, 2011, 06:28:23 am
I really don't get it. What's wrong with having the cake and eating it, if we actually can ? Majority bonus PR is infinitely more representative than any constituency-based system, and avoids most of its shortcomings.

But in a constituency-based system, every member of parliament can rely on a personal vote. He is supported by more people in his constituency than anyone else. That is a great thing if you ask me. The single MP is more independent in his voting, and, at least theoretically: No one is really save.
Tony Blair could have lost his super-safe constituency in Newcastle (right?, somewhere in Durham I think), if only a few thousand people voted another way around as they did. That is the charme of FPTP: No one is really save.

On the other hand, Schröder, Müntefering, Steinmeier and Steinbrück would have been elected in the Bundestag even if the SPD would have been down to 5,1% in 2009. No voter could have done anything to avoid that.

And majority bonus PR combines the non-proportionality of FPTP and the ultimate power of party bosses of list-PF.

Quite the opposite, assuming that strongholds exist, a party leader can be elected even if his party gets 0,5% if in his constituency he's strong (a boss), but ignored in 99% of the country, with FPTP. But we know that everywhere people vote according to a national sentiment, also in Britain where the losses or gains are quite widespread regardless the qualities of local MPs. Indeed, I don't think thay in 1997 all tory MPs had become so hated from their local voters, the were just voting against tory as a national party. so it's right that if a national party is over 5% its leaders have to be in parliament, because nationally that party exists with some force.
And if you add the preferential vote, it's even better.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 28, 2011, 02:51:07 pm
Elections postponed to april in the hope that the government can maybe actually agree on anything for the next two months at any rate.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 28, 2011, 07:53:18 pm
Elections postponed to april in the hope that the government can maybe actually agree on anything for the next two months at any rate.

Democracy + dealing with controversial but important sh*t = not work properly.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on December 28, 2011, 11:35:25 pm
Elections postponed to april in the hope that the government can maybe actually agree on anything for the next two months at any rate.

Democracy + dealing with controversial but important sh*t = not work properly.

(Democracy/Theocracy) + dealing with controversial but important sh*t = not work properly.

Fixed.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on February 03, 2012, 05:07:49 pm
Number of polls now showing the PASOK in third or worst place behind the Commies or other leftie parties. Also, LAOS seems to be crashing and burning a bit.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 03, 2012, 05:16:50 pm
Number of polls now showing the PASOK in third or worst place behind the Commies or other leftie parties. Also, LAOS seems to be crashing and burning a bit.

Source?

Don't doubting it but you would like to see it. Are the Commies in second then?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on February 03, 2012, 05:56:31 pm
Have the elections already been scheduled ? And in this case, when will they be held ?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: RodPresident on February 03, 2012, 08:41:44 pm
LAOS made the dumbest thing to a anti-establishment party, join government and worse than join government is to join a puppet austherity government. They're cleggized.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Јas on February 04, 2012, 11:15:28 am
Number of polls now showing the PASOK in third or worst place behind the Commies or other leftie parties. Also, LAOS seems to be crashing and burning a bit.

Source?

Don't doubting it but you would like to see it. Are the Commies in second then?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Greek_legislative_election#Opinion_polls


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 04, 2012, 12:19:16 pm
PASOK 7.0%    ND 18.6%    KKE 8.7%    LAOS 4.3%    SYRIZA 8.2%    DIMAR 7.5%    Greens 3.6%    XA 1.7% (a new nazi party, apparently?)   other / undecided 40.4%

Oh wow. Oh lol.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Nhoj on February 04, 2012, 12:37:04 pm
PASOK 7.0%    ND 18.6%    KKE 8.7%    LAOS 4.3%    SYRIZA 8.2%    DIMAR 7.5%    Greens 3.6%    XA 1.7% (a new nazi party, apparently?)   other / undecided 40.4%

Oh wow. Oh lol.
That poll seems to be out of line with the rest though.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 04, 2012, 12:38:46 pm
PASOK 7.0%    ND 18.6%    KKE 8.7%    LAOS 4.3%    SYRIZA 8.2%    DIMAR 7.5%    Greens 3.6%    XA 1.7% (a new nazi party, apparently?)   other / undecided 40.4%

Oh wow. Oh lol.
That poll seems to be out of line with the rest though.
Not much apart from the high Green support. It's just that most of the others are recalculated to 100%.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on February 04, 2012, 12:50:29 pm
PASOK in fifth and ND at a paltry 30ish percent would be amusing in terms of forming a government out of that. KKE wants nothing to do with any government, to begin with.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 04, 2012, 12:53:34 pm
PASOK in fifth and ND at a paltry 30ish percent would be amusing in terms of forming a government out of that. KKE wants nothing to do with any government, to begin with.
Which is why I'm rooting for KKE to top the poll given Greece's electoral law. ;D


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on February 04, 2012, 01:14:22 pm
You guys... numbers people, numbers!!!


Here is the average of the last 3 polls on wikipedia, minus undecided.


29.6% ND (conservative)
13.2% KKE (communist)
13.1% PASOK (progressive)
12.8% SYRIZA (left-wing)
12.4% DIMAR (social democrat)
6.2% LAOS (right-wing)
4.2% Green (Green)
2.8% XA (nazi)
1.8% DISY (centrist)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on February 04, 2012, 01:16:04 pm
My only hope at this point is that ND does significantly worse than in 2009. Won't change the disgusting nature of these elections, but will alleviate the bitterness of PASOK's rout.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on February 04, 2012, 01:18:03 pm
Projection


124   ND
38   KKE
37   PASOK
36   SYRIZA
35   DIMAR
18   LAOS
12   GREEN


ND would need 27 extra seats for a majority.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on February 04, 2012, 01:20:07 pm
My only hope at this point is that ND does significantly worse than in 2009. Won't change the disgusting nature of these elections, but will alleviate the bitterness of PASOK's rout.

PASOK's rout will be sweet, not bitter. They don't deserve anything better.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Nhoj on February 04, 2012, 01:42:12 pm
Projection


124   ND
38   KKE
37   PASOK
36   SYRIZA
35   DIMAR
18   LAOS
12   GREEN


ND would need 27 extra seats for a majority.
What are the number if the greens don't make the threshold as they are prone to do?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on February 04, 2012, 01:51:09 pm
My only hope at this point is that ND does significantly worse than in 2009. Won't change the disgusting nature of these elections, but will alleviate the bitterness of PASOK's rout.

PASOK's rout will be sweet, not bitter. They don't deserve anything better.

Of course Papandreou acted stupidly at the end of his term. But I doubt any of Europe's current politicians would have done any better than him in a similar situation.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Make Politics Boring Again on February 04, 2012, 02:55:09 pm
It's true that around the world left-wing parties tend to balkanize, but what is preventing the three left-wing, non-tainted parties from forming a coalition and presenting a united left-wing, pro-default platform? Surely if there was an opportunity for success, this is it.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on February 04, 2012, 03:06:51 pm
It's true that around the world left-wing parties tend to balkanize, but what is preventing the three left-wing, non-tainted parties from forming a coalition and presenting a united left-wing, pro-default platform? Surely if there was an opportunity for success, this is it.

The fact that the KKE still lives in the 1950s and thinks every other party (left and right altogether) is an evil bourgeois enemy of the proletariate.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on February 04, 2012, 03:24:33 pm
If I were living in Greece right now, I'd spend more time making Molotov coktails than worrying about which of the useless parties to vote for. I imagine.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on February 04, 2012, 05:33:51 pm
It's true that around the world left-wing parties tend to balkanize, but what is preventing the three left-wing, non-tainted parties from forming a coalition and presenting a united left-wing, pro-default platform? Surely if there was an opportunity for success, this is it.

The KKE is Stalinist and hates SYRIZA, on paper its most likely "ally" with a passion unequaled.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 04, 2012, 06:30:23 pm
It's true that around the world left-wing parties tend to balkanize, but what is preventing the three left-wing, non-tainted parties from forming a coalition and presenting a united left-wing, pro-default platform? Surely if there was an opportunity for success, this is it.

Don't the KKE, SYRIZA and the DIMAR hate eachother completely?

Also, don't forget that New Democracy will get that 40 seat bonus for being FPTP which would make the arithmatic difficult.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 05, 2012, 04:32:12 am
It's true that around the world left-wing parties tend to balkanize, but what is preventing the three left-wing, non-tainted parties from forming a coalition and presenting a united left-wing, pro-default platform? Surely if there was an opportunity for success, this is it.

The fact that the KKE still lives in the 1950s and thinks every other party (left and right altogether) is an evil bourgeois enemy of the proletariate.
Also, that they're right about that (though nothing else whatsoever).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on February 08, 2012, 05:38:54 am
Public Issue Poll for Kathimerini
ND 31%
Democratic Left 18%
KKE 12.5%
SYRIZA 12%
PASOK 8 (!)%
LAOS 5%
Chrysi Avgi 3%

Will PASOK cease to exist after this election is held?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 08, 2012, 05:51:15 am
Quite possibly.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 08, 2012, 07:45:11 am
Remember that PASOK doesn't really have roots.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 08, 2012, 07:50:30 am
I do, that's why I said "quite possibly", and not "they'll be around... somehow... in some form". Heck, even Israeli Labour is a more genuinely Socialist party than that thing.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on February 08, 2012, 08:55:37 am
Oh, I had worked on Greek polls, but didn't noticed this thread. I'll try to put them into graphics. If somebody have time, PM me and I'll send the excel file.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 08, 2012, 11:04:45 am
I do, that's why I said "quite possibly", and not "they'll be around... somehow... in some form". Heck, even Israeli Labour is a more genuinely Socialist party than that thing.

Oh, I was just backing you up.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on February 08, 2012, 02:08:12 pm
So, how do I post pictures?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 08, 2012, 02:10:30 pm
<img></img> but with [] rather than <> and with the text thingy between. There is (I think) some sort of minimum number of posts rule as well. Can't recall what it is though.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on February 08, 2012, 03:32:48 pm
Then It goes.

Average Polling since September.

(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-sNoJ3lXOxwk/TzLXI950wCI/AAAAAAAAAEQ/A2W9J3XrgHo/s848/Greek%2520Election%252001-12b.png)

Probable Coalitions:

(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-bzqJYL51B7I/TzLXH_DumUI/AAAAAAAAAEI/rIwXEpVpHIM/s807/Greek%2520Election%252001-12a.png)

ND is going slightly downwards, but They're almost stable if compared to PASOK. The rest of the left surged as a whole, but lost ground on January, except for DIMAR, witch keeps a rocket ascention. The tentative center-right DISY wasn't able to take off and the Greens are endangered to crash in the ground. The horrible XA (what does it mean, Xenophobic Alliance?) appeared on the last couple of months on more than one poll. Before December, only VPRC included them.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on February 08, 2012, 03:40:40 pm
Actually, January polls detected a bigger proportion of "other / undecided" than previous months, reaching september levels again.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on February 09, 2012, 05:24:10 pm
Presumably XA's resurfaced as a consequence of LAOS propping up the government/alienating its support.

It appears DIMAR's gradually replacing PASOK - one of the biggest benefits of PR, in my opinion, is how it allows voters that opportunity without a second thought.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on February 09, 2012, 05:49:45 pm
one of the biggest benefits of PR, in my opinion, is how it allows voters that opportunity without a second thought.

Very true.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 11, 2012, 05:41:38 am
Unfortunately, this fake PR means that ND is guaranteed to win the next election.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on February 11, 2012, 05:49:24 am
Why did PASOK collapse so heavily over the winter? One would have thought that not being solely in charge of government would have taken some pressure off them.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 11, 2012, 05:52:01 am
On the other hand, now that PASOK isn't solely in charge of government, I can't think of any reason for anyone to cast a vote for them.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 11, 2012, 07:54:42 am
^^^

Again, PASOK does not have roots.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on February 11, 2012, 10:13:16 am
Unfortunately, this fake PR means that ND is guaranteed to win the next election.

Yeah, the Greek 'modification', makes that frustratingly true. But then again it'd be even worse under FPTP.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on February 11, 2012, 04:37:35 pm
Unfortunately, this fake PR means that ND is guaranteed to win the next election.

"Guaranteed" is too strong of a word. I think people are underestimating just how unpopular this next round of austerity measures will be. Cutting the minimum wage tends to be viewed as sacrilege and the people will know who is responsible. DIMAR is skyrocketing in the polls, PASOK will probably cease to exist at this rate, the KKE appear to have a ceiling at around ten percent etc.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Harry Hayfield on February 12, 2012, 06:49:35 pm
(Source: YAHOO News)
Greek coalition government expels 43 deputies, over dissent in crucial debt vote

Can anyone tell me what the tallies are at the moment (or is that impossible)?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 12, 2012, 07:48:33 pm
(Source: YAHOO News)
Greek coalition government expels 43 deputies, over dissent in crucial debt vote

Can anyone tell me what the tallies are at the moment (or is that impossible)?

PASOK 132
ND 62
KKE 21
LAOS 14
Left Coalition 9
Independents 62(!)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 13, 2012, 04:07:38 am
It's worth noting that not quite all of the independents are really independents, since new parliamentary groups cannot be created until after the next election.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Make Politics Boring Again on February 13, 2012, 05:04:19 am
(Source: YAHOO News)
Greek coalition government expels 43 deputies, over dissent in crucial debt vote

Can anyone tell me what the tallies are at the moment (or is that impossible)?

PASOK 132
ND 62
KKE 21
LAOS 14
Left Coalition 9
Independents 62(!)

Has there been this much disloyalty anywhere in the history of partisan parliaments, ever?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on February 13, 2012, 07:33:24 am
(Source: YAHOO News)
Greek coalition government expels 43 deputies, over dissent in crucial debt vote

Can anyone tell me what the tallies are at the moment (or is that impossible)?

PASOK 132
ND 62
KKE 21
LAOS 14
Left Coalition 9
Independents 62(!)

Has there been this much disloyalty anywhere in the history of partisan parliaments, ever?

I can think of a few US examples where the majority of backbenchers opposed the party leadership, but then in the US the party whips aren't nearly as strong as in other countries - there's no procedure to expel people from the party.  If David Duke wants to be a Republican or Lyndon LaRouche a Democrat, they can't do anything about it, nor can they remove them as candidates if they win the primary.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 13, 2012, 12:22:15 pm
Interesting to note that two of the expelled were Nazis who supported the bill (one of them being the old transport minister).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 17, 2012, 10:40:20 am
VPRC (Feb 10th-13th) Changes from 2009 in italics
New Democracy 27.5 (-3) (-6)
Democratic Left 16% (+3)
Communist 14 (+1.5) (+6.5)
Radical Left 13.5 (+1) (+8.9)
PASOK 11 (-1) (-32.9)
LAOS 4.5 (-1.5) (-1.1)
Greens 3.5 (+0.5)
Golden Dawn 2.5 (nc)
Democratic Alliance 2 (-0.5)
Citizens Chariot 2 (-0.5)
Anticapitalist Left 1 (nc)

No majority for the ND. I actually think DIMAR could just about win this...

And that landslide in 2009 seems so long ago.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on February 17, 2012, 10:44:07 am
Will they find a way to postpone the elections again, in the name of "stability" ?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on February 17, 2012, 11:31:32 am
This is going to be a great election. Hopefully the KKE can lead the Revolution after this.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Iannis on February 17, 2012, 12:02:11 pm
This is going to be a great election. Hopefully the KKE can lead the Revolution after this.

In their deep souls KKE leaders know that they are wrong, that their model would neve work. That's way they refuse any coalition with other parties.
i just fear leftist populims at government, but what can they do without possibility of public expenditure?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on February 17, 2012, 12:04:21 pm
This is going to be a great election. Hopefully the KKE can lead the Revolution after this.

In their deep souls KKE leaders know that they are wrong, that their model would neve work. That's way they refuse any coalition with other parties.
i just fear leftist populims at government, but what can they do without possibility of public expenditure?

Do you seriously think my support for the KKE is unironic?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on February 17, 2012, 08:50:21 pm
These are the same food, with different flavor. Last poll added.

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-g6aEuoCmaXo/Tz7jN7UNBbI/AAAAAAAAAEc/5XOsgyb5fLw/s846/Greek%2520Election%252002-12a.png)

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-7LkYB1oWU5Y/Tz8A99UQIGI/AAAAAAAAAFI/SLJjc_FXbG8/s846/Greek%2520Election%252002-12b.png)


As you can see, gentleman, the whole left voting intention varied, but didn't change at all. PASOK's voters are being sucked by DIMAR and, to a lesser extent, SYRIZA. The right seem to be on a  shrink trend, but the bleed is focused on LAOS.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Јas on February 18, 2012, 01:39:35 am
Struggling Greeks losing belief in the state (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17067104), Paul Mason, BBC


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: redcommander on February 18, 2012, 02:34:25 am
Wow the Communists could actually stand a chance of winning.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on February 18, 2012, 09:48:30 am
Wow the Communists could actually stand a chance of winning.

Not actually, no. The KKE is Stalinist and thus has a fairly limited base. I doubt they could do better than 14%. Which would still be their best result.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 18, 2012, 12:30:52 pm
Struggling Greeks losing belief in the state (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17067104), Paul Mason, BBC

Mason's been good on Greece from the start.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay on February 18, 2012, 02:31:40 pm
I heard a Greek commentator on euronews 2 days ago (and people invited by euronews use to be worth listening), saying that the political scene was really upside down, that nobody had no clue about the way it could evolve and that things could change in one day. So, given that it remains 2 months, I guess most predictions/polls wouldn't be tell much outside of confirming a messy situation. Ah well, that's the most I reminded from what he said, it was in the night, in English and I was barely half awaken, :P.

I'd stick to my personal feeling so far, that, maybe the situation will be very wavy, but that in then end people would accept EU 'diktat' (fancy to use this word for something mainly directed by Germany). That being said, who knows...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 18, 2012, 02:43:40 pm
The left parties would have to beat ND by 15.4% to win more seats than ND. That's looking like it might actually be possible.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Colbert on February 22, 2012, 12:18:20 am

PASOK 11 (-1) (-32.9)

Citizens Chariot 2 (-0.5)




in greece, right and left colors are based on byzantium traditions of chariot racing

the favorite team of the people is the green team, as the elite prefere the blue team.


thus, the actual "socialist" party, PASOK is identified with green, and so is the popular football club of athens Panathinaïkos




Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on February 22, 2012, 04:24:43 pm
Interesting. I had been wondering what the significance of green was. I knew about the Blue and Green chariot teams in Rome and Byzantium, but I hadn't connected the two.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on March 31, 2012, 05:28:15 am
Have the elections officially been scheduled yet ?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on April 01, 2012, 06:41:44 am
Have the elections officially been scheduled yet ?

*coughcough*


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 01, 2012, 07:02:54 am
They'll be held when Angela Merkel sees a chance of victory for her goons. Not before.

They haven't been officially called yet.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on April 01, 2012, 07:07:39 am
I've read somewhere that PASOK is rising in the polls.

Maybe they win this thing (if the election is called in a few months) ... :P


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 01, 2012, 07:20:24 am
I've read somewhere that PASOK is rising in the polls.

All the way up to 15%. ND are down to 22%. This is going to be a different election.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 01, 2012, 07:23:31 am
The major polling development of the last month has been the rise of yet another new party, ANEL, a populist/anti-diktat ND splinter.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on April 01, 2012, 07:28:49 am
They'll be held when Angela Merkel sees a chance of victory for her goons. Not before.

They haven't been officially called yet.

The coalition would gain a majority if the elections are held now. Maybe this will not be the case in 6 months.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 01, 2012, 02:48:59 pm
Results based on recent polling:

(http://i.imgur.com/Pr6uy.png)

Thanks to the 19 Nazi seats, no possible grouping has a majority.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on April 01, 2012, 03:28:36 pm
It appears as if the even-scarier XA has taken LAOS' support.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 01, 2012, 03:35:18 pm
They'll be held when Angela Merkel sees a chance of victory for her goons. Not before.

They haven't been officially called yet.

The coalition would gain a majority if the elections are held now. Maybe this will not be the case in 6 months.
I'm referring to an ND majority. I'm also being mildly caustic. :P


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on April 01, 2012, 03:40:39 pm
Results based on recent polling:

(http://i.imgur.com/Pr6uy.png)

Thanks to the 19 Nazi seats, no possible grouping has a majority.

What kind of party is AN.EL. ?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 01, 2012, 03:58:48 pm
The major polling development of the last month has been the rise of yet another new party, ANEL, a populist/anti-diktat ND splinter.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on April 01, 2012, 04:31:25 pm
Sorry, I skipped this post. Well, that sucks.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ObserverIE on April 01, 2012, 04:33:35 pm
Results based on recent polling:

(http://i.imgur.com/Pr6uy.png)

Thanks to the 19 Nazi seats, no possible grouping has a majority.

What kind of party is AN.EL. ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Greeks (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Greeks)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 03, 2012, 04:20:49 am
Sorry, I skipped this post. Well, that sucks.
Not really, seeing as they are drawing votes from ND. ;D


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on April 03, 2012, 11:12:55 am
Sorry, I skipped this post. Well, that sucks.
Not really, seeing as they are drawing votes from ND. ;D

As much as I despise ND, I tend to think the populist right is always a bad thing. And especially in Greece's context.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on April 03, 2012, 01:37:39 pm
Is it even going to be possible for anyone to form a government with the current numbers?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: redcommander on April 03, 2012, 04:55:11 pm
Is it even going to be possible for anyone to form a government with the current numbers?

It's probably going to be a very "colorful" combination of people no matter who wins the most seats.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 03, 2012, 09:27:11 pm
Is it even going to be possible for anyone to form a government with the current numbers?

A PASOK-ND coalition may be possible, although it won't exactly have a comfortable majority. If the two parties don't have a majority, they may get it if they let the Nazis in. It seems like they might be underpolling (one would certainly expect LAOS to be doing better, although participating in the government wasn't good for them from an electoral standpoint); does anyone know whether the Greek far-right generally underpolls?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 03, 2012, 09:39:39 pm
Is it even going to be possible for anyone to form a government with the current numbers?

A PASOK-ND coalition may be possible, although it won't exactly have a comfortable majority. If the two parties don't have a majority, they may get it if they let the Nazis in. It seems like they might be underpolling (one would certainly expect LAOS to be doing better, although participating in the government wasn't good for them from an electoral standpoint); does anyone know whether the Greek far-right generally underpolls?

I'm under the impression that the far-right underpolls everywhere.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: RodPresident on April 04, 2012, 05:06:17 pm
Another posibility to Troika's gang victory maybe Dora Bakoyannis' fan club running under PASOK umbrella. Although that would cause problems with Samaras.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on April 11, 2012, 02:14:55 pm
6th of May.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on April 11, 2012, 02:24:32 pm
6th of May.

Wow, just like France ? That's gonna be a big night...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 11, 2012, 02:26:43 pm
Cool. 8)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on April 11, 2012, 02:45:27 pm
6th of May.

Wow, just like France ? That's gonna be a big night...

Hadn't thought of that yet. Yes, a very big night, though it may cost Greece the attention it deserves. (Though hopefully France isn't going to be suspenseful at all ;) )


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 12, 2012, 11:31:35 am
What happens if it becomes near enough impossible to form a government?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 12, 2012, 11:37:51 am
What happens if it becomes near enough impossible to form a government?

It isn't as though Greece is a sovereign country, so it hardly matters.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on April 12, 2012, 04:47:29 pm
What happens if it becomes near enough impossible to form a government?

It isn't as though Greece is a sovereign country, so it hardly matters.

BrusselsBerlin-appointed caretaker government?  :P


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on April 12, 2012, 04:48:30 pm
What happens if it becomes near enough impossible to form a government?

It isn't as though Greece is a sovereign country, so it hardly matters.

BrusselsBerlin-appointed caretaker government?  :P

I suspect that solution would be more productive than anything the Greek voters will produce. Not that I would directly advocate doing it so blatantly ;)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on April 12, 2012, 06:18:59 pm
Yeah, it's working wonders at the moment.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on April 20, 2012, 03:01:08 pm
What happens if it becomes near enough impossible to form a government?
It isn't as though Greece is a sovereign country, so it hardly matters.
BrusselsBerlin-appointed caretaker government?  :P
Greece still is a sovereign nation after all and they could declare bankruptcy and leave the Euro. It would be a very tough proces to go through, but they would safe their national honour. The present situation is just too humiliating.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 21, 2012, 08:13:58 am
PASOK is rebounding. :( (And not at ND's expense.)

Averaging eight polls by eight different companies released over the past three days, leaving out the ninth one that isn't reweighted to 100% and doesn't tell undecideds apart from others.

ND 22.9
PASOK 16.5
Syriza 10.6
KKE 9.7
ANEL 9.4
Dimar 8.2
XA 5.1
LAOS 3.6
Greens 3.3
DISY 2.9
other 7.0 (some of these polls give breakouts to further parties, but none near the 3.0% threshold)
And then I added the totals and thought I had an error. And then I double-checked everything. And one of these pollsters is not reweighted to 100 but rather includes another 6.2 undecided / did not state (well it's abbreviated D.I./D.A. in the link.) Pah.

It really is a shame about Syriza's split. They'd have a chance of actually winning this election without it. As is, there's the sceptre of a continued ND-PASOK government after the election thanks to the 50-seat bonus.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on April 21, 2012, 08:49:48 am
Why the Dimar collapse ?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on April 21, 2012, 08:57:05 am
Holy fwuck... the *actual* Nazis are polling at over 5%?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 21, 2012, 09:10:21 am
Why the Dimar collapse ?
No idea, and we need px to wean himself off boring American elections and devote his attention here, but I would figure they'd be a logical intermediate host for disappointed PASOK voters floating back?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 21, 2012, 10:50:23 am
More pressingly, WHY the "Golden Dawn" (Nazi) surge?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 21, 2012, 11:04:04 am
Why wouldn't people reared on anticommunist rhetoric who are not dense (and not rich) enough to continue voting Conservative vote Nazi in such a near-apocalyptic crisis? That's what they've always done. LAOS of course have sold out; just be glad ANEL exists to draw enough of them off. :P


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 21, 2012, 11:09:08 am
New board rule: that particular party must always be referred to as 'Golden Shower'.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on April 21, 2012, 11:10:16 am
:D

It really is a shame about Syriza's split. They'd have a chance of actually winning this election without it. As is, there's the sceptre of a continued ND-PASOK government after the election thanks to the 50-seat bonus.

What? SYRIZA's split?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 21, 2012, 11:13:48 am
:D

It really is a shame about Syriza's split. They'd have a chance of actually winning this election without it. As is, there's the sceptre of a continued ND-PASOK government after the election thanks to the 50-seat bonus.

What? SYRIZA's split?


That's what the DIMAR is, I think.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 21, 2012, 11:14:30 am
Also, lol at whoever decided that this picture needed to go into Golden Dawn's wikipedia entry:

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c1/Golden_Dawn_girl_member.jpg)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 21, 2012, 11:15:12 am
:D

It really is a shame about Syriza's split. They'd have a chance of actually winning this election without it. As is, there's the sceptre of a continued ND-PASOK government after the election thanks to the 50-seat bonus.

What? SYRIZA's split?


That's what the DIMAR is, I think.
Yep, basically Syriza's moderate wing. (Since joined by several PASOK defectors.)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on April 21, 2012, 11:20:51 am
Oh, I had thought DIMAR were created from the leftist rump departing from PASOK, not simply added to. Yeah, that is a shame.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 21, 2012, 11:29:57 am
http://www.athensnews.gr/issue/13438/40086

Now-dated article that sheds some light on the issue.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on April 21, 2012, 11:46:36 am
Cheers. :)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 21, 2012, 05:28:55 pm
Why the Dimar collapse ?
No idea, and we need px to wean himself off boring American elections and devote his attention here, but I would figure they'd be a logical intermediate host for disappointed PASOK voters floating back?

Obviously you don't need my help. You pretty much nailed it.

More pressingly, WHY the "Golden Dawn" (Nazi) surge?

Because immigrants are always the easiest scapegoats during an economic crisis.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on April 21, 2012, 06:18:18 pm
Why the Dimar collapse ?
No idea, and we need px to wean himself off boring American elections and devote his attention here, but I would figure they'd be a logical intermediate host for disappointed PASOK voters floating back?

Obviously you don't need my help. You pretty much nailed it.

But the question is, why are they floating back ?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 21, 2012, 06:22:05 pm
Why the Dimar collapse ?
No idea, and we need px to wean himself off boring American elections and devote his attention here, but I would figure they'd be a logical intermediate host for disappointed PASOK voters floating back?

Obviously you don't need my help. You pretty much nailed it.

But the question is, why are they floating back ?

For the same reason 90% of Republicans will vote for Romney even though they don't like him.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on April 21, 2012, 06:24:29 pm
Why the Dimar collapse ?
No idea, and we need px to wean himself off boring American elections and devote his attention here, but I would figure they'd be a logical intermediate host for disappointed PASOK voters floating back?

Obviously you don't need my help. You pretty much nailed it.

But the question is, why are they floating back ?

For the same reason 90% of Republicans will vote for Romney even though they don't like him.

Considering that the choice isn't PASOK vs ND anymore but rather Brussel's government vs Hard-left alternative vs Hard-right alternative, I really don't see why anyone disappointed by PASOK would consider coming back.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 21, 2012, 08:36:48 pm
Why the Dimar collapse ?
No idea, and we need px to wean himself off boring American elections and devote his attention here, but I would figure they'd be a logical intermediate host for disappointed PASOK voters floating back?

Obviously you don't need my help. You pretty much nailed it.

But the question is, why are they floating back ?

For the same reason 90% of Republicans will vote for Romney even though they don't like him.

Considering that the choice isn't PASOK vs ND anymore but rather Brussel's government vs Hard-left alternative vs Hard-right alternative, I really don't see why anyone disappointed by PASOK would consider coming back.

If the alternatives were worthwhile then PASOK would have been in even more trouble. But most left parties are jokes. Besides their fervent anti-EU rhetoric they have nothing substantial to say, not a single serious proposition about how to handle the current crisis.
Anodyne platitudes and a stringent refusal to enter any kind of coalition government just vindicate PASOK's argument that a vote for SYRIZA, DIMAR or KKE is a vote wasted.

And don't forget that PASOK had a hard core of around 35% of the electorate between 1977-2009. It's not that easy for these people to vote for another party after a lifetime of being staunch supporters of PASOK. Most of them haven't voted for another party in their entire life.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on April 24, 2012, 05:28:11 pm
How is it that PASOK is winning back dissatisfied voters while led by the guy that was FINANCE MINISTER throughout the entire term (and still is)? 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 24, 2012, 05:51:55 pm
How is it that PASOK is winning back dissatisfied voters while led by the guy that was FINANCE MINISTER throughout the entire term (and still is)? 

Venizelos became finance minister last June after threatening Papandreou that he and his group of deputies would topple the government. Giorgos Papakonstantinou was until then and he took the blame for virtually everything by the media and his colleagues, even though he was constantly undermined by the likes of Venizelos and the rest of the old guard which didn't lift a finger to help with the necessary reforms.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: RedPrometheus on April 25, 2012, 06:56:56 am
Well I'm hoping for a PASOK-ND-KKE-SYRIZA-DIMAR-Greens coalition.

But I think I'm optimistic at that ;)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on April 25, 2012, 04:46:16 pm
Well I'm hoping for a PASOK-ND-KKE-SYRIZA-DIMAR-Greens coalition.

But I think I'm optimistic at that ;)
I'm hoping that SYRIZA will overtake PASOK (I was hoping that DIMAR would back in February and March, but that hasn't worked out).  Then it could hopefully overtake ND. 
I'd then hope for a SYRIZA-KKE-DIMAR-Greens coalition. 

Even more optimistic.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 26, 2012, 12:07:29 am
Well I'm hoping for a PASOK-ND-KKE-SYRIZA-DIMAR-Greens coalition.

But I think I'm optimistic at that ;)
What kind of coalition is that? Aren't those parties polar opposites in ideology?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 26, 2012, 07:00:47 am
Apologies for my extreme ignorance on the matter, but is it actually possible that the election will produce a government that refuses the austerity mandated by the terms of EU bailout?

If so, then how are things likely to play out?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Colbert on April 26, 2012, 07:49:59 pm
one of last polls :

01-ND........................21.5% (liberal)
02-PASOK..................14% (social-liberal)
03-SYRISA.................13% (radical left)
04-ANEL....................11% (national-conservative)
05-KKE......................11% (communist)
06-DIMAR....................9.5% (social-liberal)
07-XA..........................5.5% (nazi)
08-OP.........................3.5% (green)
09-LAOS.....................3% (nationalist)
10-DISY.......................2% (liberal)
11-ANTARSYA..............1% (?est.)(liberal)
12-DRASI....................1% (?est.)(liberal)
13-EPAM.....................1%
(?) (no information. on their site, they speak about FYROM, but, can't determine his political ideology)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 26, 2012, 07:53:59 pm
Something tells me the government formation's gonna drag on for a whiiiiiile...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Colbert on April 26, 2012, 07:55:10 pm
in aggregating ideological "coalition"


left...............................24%
liberal-left-wing............23.5%
green..............................3.5%
liberal-right-wing..........25.5%
right..............................14%
nazi...............................5.5%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Colbert on April 26, 2012, 07:56:33 pm
like france, seems greeks want another dose of liberalism...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 26, 2012, 09:20:21 pm
I think they mostly want to stop to be a German colony, like French are saying by rejecting Sarkozy, the CDU candidate.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 27, 2012, 12:24:47 am
like france, seems greeks want another dose of liberalism...

There are no real liberal/conservative parties in Greece and that's our biggest problem. Everybody from the far left to the far right favors our current system of elephantine government, absurd regulations and bureaucracy, and crony capitalism.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on April 27, 2012, 01:08:37 am
I think they mostly want to stop to be a German colony, like French are saying by rejecting Sarkozy, the CDU candidate.

Believe me - nothing in Greece or France seems to be as competent as the CDU. Which says more about the respective parties there than it does about the CDU. (Says the biased guy from Germany.)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on April 27, 2012, 11:59:29 am
What's the date of the election, again?

Also, does Greece plan to do anything about this ridiculous "give the winner 50 free seats" bulls**t at some point?  When the "winning" party may well get <25% of the vote?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Nhoj on April 27, 2012, 12:08:23 pm
What's the date of the election, again?

Also, does Greece plan to do anything about this ridiculous "give the winner 50 free seats" bulls**t at some point?  When the "winning" party may well get <25% of the vote?
May 6th same day as France's second round.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on April 27, 2012, 01:08:33 pm
What's the threshold to get any seats?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 27, 2012, 02:30:30 pm
What's the threshold to get any seats?

3%.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on April 27, 2012, 03:26:42 pm
What's the threshold to get any seats?

3%.
So is an ND+Anel+Laos gov't possible?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 27, 2012, 04:53:21 pm
What's the date of the election, again?

Also, does Greece plan to do anything about this ridiculous "give the winner 50 free seats" bulls**t at some point?  When the "winning" party may well get <25% of the vote?

It appears that the right rigs the system every time they take power.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 28, 2012, 12:31:48 am
What's the date of the election, again?

Also, does Greece plan to do anything about this ridiculous "give the winner 50 free seats" bulls**t at some point?  When the "winning" party may well get <25% of the vote?

It appears that the right rigs the system every time they take power.

Nah, PASOK was even better at that when they were in power.

Also, does Greece plan to do anything about this ridiculous "give the winner 50 free seats" bulls**t at some point?  When the "winning" party may well get <25% of the vote?

There would be a point to that if the smaller parties had shown a willingness to form coalitions and participate in governing.
But almost all of them (especially the left wing ones) have done the exact opposite and ruled out from the outset any such possibility. They are going after the protest vote and they couldn't care less about helping our country in any way.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 28, 2012, 04:20:53 am
PASOK did introduce a fully proportional system in the late 80s. That led to three elections in a year and to the abandonment of the idea by the Greek political ruling class.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 28, 2012, 04:24:47 am
PASOK did introduce a fully proportional system in the late 80s. That led to three elections in a year and to the abandonment of the idea by the Greek political ruling class.

They did it after the Koskotas scandal erupted, to prevent ND from getting a majority in the parliament. They never really believed the idea of coalition governments and certainly the way the left behaved that period did nothing to prove them wrong.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on April 28, 2012, 09:09:42 am
Here's the standard.at article about XA translated to English with Google Translate:

Quote
Fascists day dawning

Report | 28 April 2012, 14:27

"Golden Dawn" is the party of fascists in the elections on 6 May is probably the first time in parliament

Panteleimon was a healer, but in his neighborhood now festers Athens worst wound. Blue swastikas all over the house walls, Greek flags, planted defiantly on balconies, especially the "Hellas" lettering on the asphalt road mark the terrain of neo-fascists. "Greece of the Greeks" is in blue, and four feet tall on the forecourt of the church - to understand it, the immigrants from Bangladesh and North Africa alike. Agios Panteleimon, a run-down neighborhood north of the Athens Central Railway Station, has taken root Chrysi Avgi, the party of the "Golden Dawn". Now it is to jump on in Parliament.

All the polls say the collection of the fascists in the elections on 6 May require. It could be 17 seats, maybe more. "The support for us is much higher than the five or six percent in the polls," says Ilias Kasiliaris on the phone, number two of the party and nephew of Nikolaos Michaloliakos, the party founder. Kasiliaris has no time for a meeting with journalists, let alone foreign ones, which do not bring votes. "The Greeks choose us because we are the only party that is telling the truth," he explains and hangs up.

The "truth" is on small stickers on front doors and lamp posts in Saint Panteleimon: "I choose Chrysi Avgi, so that Greece will be cleaned." And on building walls, sprayed on by the anarchists and fascists renewed. Slogans such as "working for Greek workers" or "Throw the Koran into the fire." A mosque in a basement near the Attiki Square Pendant by Chrysi Avgi stuck in the past year on fire.

The election campaign of the ruling Socialists and conservatives have joined the campaign against the foreigners already bowed to pressure from big is the fascists and right-wing parties such as the Orthodox People's Assembly (Laos) and the Greeks became independent.

"We need to reclaim our cities," said Antonis Samaras, the head of the conservative New Democracy party and possible next prime minister. As a "hygiene bomb that is about to explode" means the Minister of Public Order, Michalis Chryssohoidis of PASOK politicians, illegal immigrants. He makes the Greeks supposedly infectious diseases of Africans and Asians fear. 1.1 million immigrants will be available in Greece, 400,000 are undocumented. After years of long waiting, the government announced the construction of 30 detention camps for illegal immigrants. The first will open next week north of Athens.

Has 5.3 percent receive Chrysi Avgi in Athens in the local elections in late 2010, the first elections after the outbreak of financial crisis and the drastic austerity measures. Nine percent were at Agios Panteleimon and in some polling stations of the district as much as 20 percent.

The three-percent threshold for the Parliament to take the fascists now with ease. State bankruptcy and immigration problems have made them strong. "They have managed to expel the immigrants of the squares in the center of Athens," says the historian Antonis Liakos. "The fascists have started businesses to protect the Greeks, 'and to build strong organizations in schools. You are their reservoir," says the professor of history at the University of Athens. Not their Nazi ideology Chrysi Avgi was popularized, but the foreigner issue. "People no longer feel protected by the state."

Night patrols

At night patrol commands of party supporters through the neighborhood, during the day, young men in track suits with push their dogs around on street corners. The police tolerate the intimidating presence of the fascists. Petros Constantinou, a radical leftist politicians from Agios Panteleimon, goes further: "In Greece, the police have always collaborated with the fascists."

Constantinou is the counterpart of Michaloliakos, the head of Chrysi Avgi. Both were elected in 2010 as a member of the Athens City Council. In January 2011 it came to a head. Because Michaloliakos came to the meetings with a group dressed in black and allegedly armed party members, Constantinou protested loudly. The following tumult was Michaloliakos (55), right-wing extremist convicted on the retreat. In parting, he got twice the Hitler salute. (Markus Bernath from Athens, THE STANDARD, 04.28.2012)

http://derstandard.at/1334796449707/Griechenland-Faschisten-wittern-Morgenluft

Disturbing ...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 28, 2012, 10:36:19 am

Disturbing ...
Google's cheek in offering that "translation" programe? Quite.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on April 28, 2012, 01:35:50 pm
What's the best English-language source for news coverage of this? (Is there like a France24 equivalent?)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 28, 2012, 01:56:28 pm
And what's it with the Commies and the islands (the Ionian islands and Lesbos and Samos, to be precise)?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on April 30, 2012, 07:48:22 pm
one of last polls :

01-ND........................21.5% (liberal)
02-PASOK..................14% (social-liberal)
03-SYRISA.................13% (radical left)
04-ANEL....................11% (national-conservative)
05-KKE......................11% (communist)
06-DIMAR....................9.5% (social-liberal)
07-XA..........................5.5% (nazi)
08-OP.........................3.5% (green)
09-LAOS.....................3% (nationalist)
10-DISY.......................2% (liberal)
11-ANTARSYA..............1% (?est.)(liberal)
12-DRASI....................1% (?est.)(liberal)
13-EPAM.....................1%
(?) (no information. on their site, they speak about FYROM, but, can't determine his political ideology)
PASOK has always been considered socialist/social democratic, but if we're going to call them what they really are, than you may as well call them neo-liberal.  But DIMAR is socialist/social democratic rather than left-liberal, no?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 30, 2012, 07:58:58 pm
one of last polls :

01-ND........................21.5% (liberal)
02-PASOK..................14% (social-liberal)
03-SYRISA.................13% (radical left)
04-ANEL....................11% (national-conservative)
05-KKE......................11% (communist)
06-DIMAR....................9.5% (social-liberal)
07-XA..........................5.5% (nazi)
08-OP.........................3.5% (green)
09-LAOS.....................3% (nationalist)
10-DISY.......................2% (liberal)
11-ANTARSYA..............1% (?est.)(liberal)
12-DRASI....................1% (?est.)(liberal)
13-EPAM.....................1%
(?) (no information. on their site, they speak about FYROM, but, can't determine his political ideology)
PASOK has always been considered socialist/social democratic, but if we're going to call them what they really are, than you may as well call them neo-liberal.  But DIMAR is socialist/social democratic rather than left-liberal, no?

Nobody really knows. Besides their opposition to austerity and some rather innocuous, garden variety leftist slogans, DIMAR has refused to make any concrete proposals about how we should deal with the crisis. And their position about staying in the Eurozone can be described at best as ambiguous and at worst as muddled and incoherent.   


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 01, 2012, 03:33:44 am
Basically "try to renegotiate with the EU because this is clearly not acceptable; but we don't really want to burn all bridges either so exiting the Eurozone is very much only a last resort even though it needs to be at least sort of on the table", which isn't all that different from Syriza, right? While the KKE stance is of course "we told you so. Now let's giddout".

Does anyone happen to have results be nomos for 1993 or earlier years?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 01, 2012, 05:01:52 am
Basically "try to renegotiate with the EU because this is clearly not acceptable; but we don't really want to burn all bridges either so exiting the Eurozone is very much only a last resort even though it needs to be at least sort of on the table", which isn't all that different from Syriza, right? While the KKE stance is of course "we told you so. Now let's giddout".

Does anyone happen to have results be nomos for 1993 or earlier years?

Yeah, something like that, even though they are much more vague when they actually talk about it.
SYRIZA actually has drifted much closer to KKE when it comes to Europe, that's after all the main reason why Kouvelis and the others left it and formed DIMAR.

I will try to find something for you Lewis.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 01, 2012, 05:49:33 am
There you go, not exact results but maps from 1974 to 2009.

http://www.kathimerini.gr/4dcgi/_w_articles_kathpolitics_1_25/09/2009_1289690 (http://www.kathimerini.gr/4dcgi/_w_articles_kathpolitics_1_25/09/2009_1289690)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 01, 2012, 06:06:33 am
Thanks, it's something. :)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on May 02, 2012, 08:14:08 am
I hadn't realised New Democracy's logo's similar to the old Tory one.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: DL on May 02, 2012, 09:30:53 am
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon link=topic=145547.msg3280115#msg3280115

[b
01-ND........................21.5% (liberal)



Since when is New Democracy a "liberal" party. i thought they were the traditional party of the Greek right and were very small "c" conservative. They are part of the EPP in the European Parliament along with all those other conservative parties.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on May 02, 2012, 01:05:27 pm
Most conservative parties are liberals ie 'liberal conservatives'.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 02, 2012, 02:06:23 pm
Color.me.effing.shocked.

I had just assumed... I mean, this is Greece... they've been led by Karamanlites and Papandreoi (or whatever the accurate plural forms are ;) ) as long as I can remember... and there are no other Venizeloi on wikipedia besides Evangelos, Eleutherios, and Eleutherios' son.

But:

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Is_evangelos_venizelos_related_to_eleutherios_venizelos


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 02, 2012, 02:08:47 pm
English Spiegel article on the major parties (http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,830663,00.html)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 02, 2012, 02:19:12 pm
And what's it with the Commies and the islands (the Ionian islands and Lesbos and Samos, to be precise)?
Not to mention, Ikaria.

I just had a look over municipal election results in Samos nomos in 2009 (the old municipalities) and then checked where they actually are.

The KKE won all three municipalities on Ikaria, since merged. The combined tally on the island was
KKE 37.1%
PASOK 25.5%
ND 17.7%
Syriza 10.2%
LAOS 3.4%
Greens (just under) 3.0%
other 3.0%

That's a far-left majority, if you will. The relatively sizable other vote is also topped by Antarsia, KKE (ML) and suchlike.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Colbert on May 03, 2012, 01:39:07 am
'found a poll....but i'm not certain the date is right

http://www.vprc.gr/uplds/File/teleytaia%20nea/Graphs_PoliticalSurvey_Kontra_April2012.pdf


only 68.4 % of people answering voting a party. So I take the results on base 100 upon base 68.4


SYRISA   18,42
ND   15,2
DIMAR   13,6
KKE   12,72
PASOK   8,63
ANEL   7,89
XA   6,29
LAOS   4,97
greens   4,24
DISY   2,05
DRASI   1,17
ANTARSYA   0,88
autres   3,95


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 03, 2012, 02:37:19 am
'found a poll....but i'm not certain the date is right

http://www.vprc.gr/uplds/File/teleytaia%20nea/Graphs_PoliticalSurvey_Kontra_April2012.pdf


only 68.4 % of people answering voting a party. So I take the results on base 100 upon base 68.4


SYRISA   18,42
ND   15,2
DIMAR   13,6
KKE   12,72
PASOK   8,63
ANEL   7,89
XA   6,29
LAOS   4,97
greens   4,24
DISY   2,05
DRASI   1,17
ANTARSYA   0,88
autres   3,95


That's a month old and you got the numbers wrong.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 03, 2012, 02:01:29 pm
So this basically has to result in a coalition, right? There's no way anyone is getting to 40%.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 04, 2012, 12:53:17 pm
Yessir. Which means the Greek vote and then Merkel declares the result.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on May 04, 2012, 04:39:31 pm
Given that, even though they're the "system parties" they f**king hate each other on general principle, could an ND/PASOK grand coalition even function? 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 05, 2012, 03:06:45 am
Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

  • As soon as the new Parliament takes office, the President gives the leader of the largest party an exploratory mandate, and this leader has three days to form a Government that can hold the confidence of Parliament.
  • If the first party can't form a government in three days, the President gives the leader of the second largest party an exploratory mandate, again with three days.
  • If that party can't form a government in time either, then the President gives the third largest party's leader an exploratory mandate and another three three days.
(note: in the event of a tie in seat total, the party with more votes in the last election takes precedence. If there's a tie for third place [or a three-way tie for second place, I suppose] the President has the option of giving a fourth exploratory mandate to the tied party. In no circumstance can he give more than four.)
  • If all of the exploratory mandates fail, the President is required to convene and chair a meeting of all Parliamentary party leaders (even inviting, if he desires, the leaders of parties too small to form official Parliamentary groups). At this meeting, one last chance exists for the various party leaders to negotiate and attempt to form a coalition.
  • If that fails too, the President must "make every endeavor" to have an all-party unity government formed in order to immediately administer new elections.
  • If the President can't even get the parties to cooperate for that, he has to pick one of the Chief Justices of Greece's three Supreme Courts to form a Cabinet to call for new elections. The President then dissolves Parliament.


Essentially, Greece has some pretty strict time limits for coalition negotiations that could lead to a very intense nine/ten days, and if ND (assuming they're the largest party, o/c) can't manage to form a government in 72 hours, then the parties that have the second and third most seats suddenly become much more important (and there's like six different parties those could be).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 05, 2012, 03:24:04 am
Essentially, Greece has some pretty strict time limits for coalition negotiations that could lead to a very intense nine/ten days, and if ND (assuming they're the largest party, o/c) can't manage to form a government in 72 hours, then the parties that have the second and third most seats suddenly become much more important (and there's like six different parties those could be).

Thank God, if there's anything Greece doesn't need it's to become another Belgium. I wish more countries had this rule. Allowing coalition negociations for months is not good for anyone.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 05, 2012, 03:32:01 am
Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

  • As soon as the new Parliament takes office
How long after the elections themselves is that?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 05, 2012, 04:22:45 am
Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

  • As soon as the new Parliament takes office
How long after the elections themselves is that?

The Greek Constitution states it has to be within thirty days of the election, with the specific date specified in the Presidential decree that called for the election.

My Google Fu must be getting rusty because it actually took me a few minutes to find the date: the 14th Session of the Hellenic Parliament will take office on May 17th. :)

So that's two weeks of negotiations available for the party that wins the 50 bonus seats.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 05, 2012, 05:37:31 am
Good job Mr. King. :)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 05, 2012, 05:52:08 am
Of course, it'd be hilariously difficult to shape a majority against the bonus seats.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lasitten on May 05, 2012, 07:39:34 am
Thank God, if there's anything Greece doesn't need it's to become another Belgium. I wish more countries had this rule. Allowing coalition negotiations for months is not good for anyone.

Finland got some tough coalition negations after last election and rise of the True Finns.

Now the main Finnish newspaper is stating that Greece is going to "election chaos". Maybe we're so interested how does to new government deal with the loans which are a hot debate in the Finnish politics.



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ObserverIE on May 05, 2012, 09:02:31 am
Essentially, Greece has some pretty strict time limits for coalition negotiations that could lead to a very intense nine/ten days, and if ND (assuming they're the largest party, o/c) can't manage to form a government in 72 hours, then the parties that have the second and third most seats suddenly become much more important (and there's like six different parties those could be).

Thank God, if there's anything Greece doesn't need it's to become another Belgium. I wish more countries had this rule. Allowing coalition negociations for months is not good for anyone.

Ironically, the Belgian economy seemed to trundle along pretty well during the period when there was no government.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 05, 2012, 09:18:18 am
So this XA party is actually an admitted Neo-Nazi party? And might hit 10%? Yikes.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on May 05, 2012, 09:23:20 am
It's very common that people vote for extreme right or extreme left partys during bad times.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 05, 2012, 09:26:19 am
It's very common that people vote for extreme right or extreme left partys during bad times.

Obviously but this is a little different than voting for, say, FN in France. This is an admitted Nazi party and we're talking 10%...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Simfan34 on May 05, 2012, 09:48:26 am
Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 05, 2012, 09:50:11 am
Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?

Then Greece is f**ked.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Kushahontas on May 05, 2012, 09:54:46 am
Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?

may god help us all...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on May 05, 2012, 09:58:36 am
They only polled at 5%, so in order to become largest party they would need another 15% or so, maybe even 20% because the ND might get easily as much as 25%.

And even if they get 1st (bad for Greece's image, I know), but then there are the more normal partys that can form a government and XA will probably fade into nothingness in the next years.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 05, 2012, 10:00:00 am
Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?

That's about as probable as a member of the communist party being elected President of the US.

Anyway, they've been under constant attack from the entire political spectrum during the last month and I expect them to underperform the last polls.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 05, 2012, 10:04:43 am
Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?

Coincidentally, I actually noted the possibility of this happening just a few hours ago in the predictions thread:

If there were an intrade for Greek elections I would put $5 on the Nazis winning over 15%.

What would happen in that case?

Nothing significant, it's an arbitrary number. But they were surging in the polls before polling stopped and they're exactly the kind of party that would do better on election day than their polling.

If the Golden Dawn manages 15%, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility for them to be first place and win the fifty bonus seats. Especially if there's a fairly even split on the left, and the increase in XA support comes mostly at the expense of ND rather than ANEL. Something like this:

XA: 15%
ND: 14%
PASOK: 13%
SYRIZA: 12%
DIMAR: 11%
ANEL: 11%
KKE: 9%
LAOS: 5%
EcoGreen: 4%
others: 6%

That's a bit of a scary prospect.

With something like that happening, the fifty seat bonus for XA would actually be like half of their seat total. No other party would even think about joining XA in a coalition, though it'd be hard for the other parties to find enough common ground to form a government. You'd probably either see a very loose coalition form that lasts a few months at most, or they'd go through the whole process and end up with new elections- the left would probably make an effort to coalesce around a specific party to take the lead from XA. SYRIZA and DIMAR I'm sure would remerge, at the very least, and as a result get the 50-seat bonus.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on May 05, 2012, 10:06:09 am
Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?

That's about as probable as a member of the communist party being elected President of the US.

Anyway, they've been under constant attack from the entire political spectrum during the last month and I expect them to underperform the last polls.

I don't think they will underperform, but I think they won't get more than 10%.

Despite being attacked from all the parties it didn't stop the other Right-wingers in Europe from overpolling by a few points, because their supporters are still very motivated to go out and vote. So, probably no underperforming (less than 5%).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 05, 2012, 10:14:02 am
Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?

That's about as probable as a member of the communist party being elected President of the US.

Anyway, they've been under constant attack from the entire political spectrum during the last month and I expect them to underperform the last polls.

I don't think they will underperform, but I think they won't get more than 10%.

Despite being attacked from all the parties it didn't stop the other Right-wingers in Europe from overpolling by a few points, because their supporters are still very motivated to go out and vote. So, probably no underperforming (less than 5%).

There are plenty other more "respectable" right-wing, anti-immigrant, anti-EU parties to vote for and XA's support is VERY soft.
Praising the 1967-74 dictatorship is one thing. But praising Hitler and the Nazis is a big no-no in a country that suffered immensely during WWII and the German occupation. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 05, 2012, 10:16:11 am
And probably a big no-no because they were...uh...Nazis. Though it is especially peculiar in Greece and even more ironic considering current Greek-German relations.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on May 05, 2012, 10:18:24 am
Without reading through their Wikipedia article, I would be interested what the XA's position on the German-led austerity measures for Greece is. Do they favor the annexation of Greece to Germany ?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on May 05, 2012, 10:18:54 am
And probably a big no-no because they were...uh...Nazis. Though it is especially peculiar in Greece and even more ironic considering current Greek-German relations.

It's quite simple really:

1. Merkel is a Nazi.
2. Germany is doing fine.
3. If we vote for Nazis, we'll do fine!


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Simfan34 on May 05, 2012, 10:21:50 am
They only polled at 5%, so in order to become largest party they would need another 15% or so, maybe even 20% because the ND might get easily as much as 25%.

And even if they get 1st (bad for Greece's image, I know), but then there are the more normal partys that can form a government and XA will probably fade into nothingness in the next years.

I was imagining XA-LAOS-?, but I can't find anyone willing to be "?".


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on May 05, 2012, 10:23:57 am
They only polled at 5%, so in order to become largest party they would need another 15% or so, maybe even 20% because the ND might get easily as much as 25%.

And even if they get 1st (bad for Greece's image, I know), but then there are the more normal partys that can form a government and XA will probably fade into nothingness in the next years.

I was imagining XA-LAOS-?, but I can't find anyone willing to be "?".

I think LAOS is a totally different construction site than XA (but maybe I'm wrong). I always thought of LAOS as a very rightwing FPÖ/BZÖ-like party without the Nazi component. But maybe Lyndon knows more.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 05, 2012, 10:34:06 am
Without reading through their Wikipedia article, I would be interested what the XA's position on the German-led austerity measures for Greece is. Do they favor the annexation of Greece to Germany ?

Just because they're Nazi doesn't mean they're pro-German. Their rhetoric towards Germany, the IMF, and the austerity measures is comparable to Hitler's rhetoric towards the Western Allies and the Versailles Treaty.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 05, 2012, 10:35:05 am
Without reading through their Wikipedia article, I would be interested what the XA's position on the German-led austerity measures for Greece is. Do they favor the annexation of Greece to Germany ?

Of course they are opposed, they are nationalists so they consider the measures imposed by EU as an infringement of our independence and freedom.

They only polled at 5%, so in order to become largest party they would need another 15% or so, maybe even 20% because the ND might get easily as much as 25%.

And even if they get 1st (bad for Greece's image, I know), but then there are the more normal partys that can form a government and XA will probably fade into nothingness in the next years.

I was imagining XA-LAOS-?, but I can't find anyone willing to be "?".

I think LAOS is a totally different construction site than XA (but maybe I'm wrong). I always thought of LAOS as a very rightwing FPÖ/BZÖ-like party without the Nazi component. But maybe Lyndon knows more.

There will be no coalition of anybody with XA. Everybody has denounced them as Nazi-loving thugs and pleaded with the voters not to send them in the parliament because that would be an embarrassment for our political system.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 05, 2012, 12:05:53 pm
Essentially, Greece has some pretty strict time limits for coalition negotiations that could lead to a very intense nine/ten days, and if ND (assuming they're the largest party, o/c) can't manage to form a government in 72 hours, then the parties that have the second and third most seats suddenly become much more important (and there's like six different parties those could be).

Thank God, if there's anything Greece doesn't need it's to become another Belgium. I wish more countries had this rule. Allowing coalition negociations for months is not good for anyone.

Ironically, the Belgian economy seemed to trundle along pretty well during the period when there was no government.

Not really ironic at all. With no government to pass austerity packages, there was nothing to drag the economy into recession.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 05, 2012, 02:47:46 pm
btw, px, how are you voting?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: rob in cal on May 05, 2012, 03:11:12 pm
The Nazi connection is ironic in that it was Italy's foolish invasion of Greece (from their bases in Italian occupied Albania) that sparked the German invasion.  Hitler wanted to prepare for the invasion of Russia, and getting involved in a sideshow war in Greece was the last thing he wanted to do, but without Germany's help, the Italians would have suffered a hugely embarassing defeat, and the loss of prestige for Mussolini would have weakened his regime. A further irony was that Greece's leader Metaxas, was considered a somewhat fascist.  He died during the war against Italy (before the Germans got in).  Germany would have prefered a neutral Greece and wanted peace and quiet in the Balkans while it geared up for its war against Russia.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 05, 2012, 08:50:50 pm
I will probably vote DISY if for no other reason because they are the only reasonable and responsible voice in the current political cacophony.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on May 05, 2012, 08:58:17 pm
I will probably vote DISY if for no other reason because they are the only reasonable and responsible voice in the current political cacophony.

That's probably not a terrible choice, despite them being ideologically far more right-wing than I am. All the other parties, from a serious standpoint, are irresponsible douches. Now, I don't know if I could resist not voting for the KKE, which is truly a party with so much comedic talent and skill.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 05, 2012, 09:06:18 pm
I will probably vote DISY if for no other reason because they are the only reasonable and responsible voice in the current political cacophony.

That's probably not a terrible choice, despite them being ideologically far more right-wing than I am. All the other parties, from a serious standpoint, are irresponsible douches. Now, I don't know if I could resist not voting for the KKE, which is truly a party with so much comedic talent and skill.

Yeah, I don't agree with some of the neoliberal policies on steroids they advocate for. Heck, I even got in a facebok brawl with one of their candidates because when I pointed out that one of his proposed policies would increase unemployment he said that he "didn't care" and that some people losing their jobs would be a small price to pay for complete economic freedom.

But compared to the socialist utopias, fascist dystopias or the waffling that comes from the other parties, I'll take it. Greece has drifted too much to the left (or rather a caricature of the left) and parties like DISY are necessary so as to have an ideologically balanced debate here.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 05, 2012, 11:47:30 pm
Does Greece do exit polls? Or do they have another ridiculous election law against those?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lasitten on May 06, 2012, 07:48:09 am
What's the best English-language source for news coverage of this? (Is there like a France24 equivalent?)

I want to know also. And is there any livestreams of the elections?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 07:49:23 am
Does Greece do exit polls? Or do they have another ridiculous election law against those?

We do. They will be released at 7PM local, which I guess is 12PM Eastern.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 07:50:33 am
What's the best English-language source for news coverage of this? (Is there like a France24 equivalent?)

I want to know also. And is there any livestreams of the elections?

ERT sometimes have subtitled broadcasts, but I'm quite sure their election coverage will be entirely in Greek. Don't know of any other possibilities.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 06, 2012, 10:04:13 am
Panos Kammenos looks like Chris Christie and shares a birthday with me. I think I have to root for ANEL today.  ;)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 10:31:41 am
Any rumours?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 10:48:58 am
Any rumours?

Just seen a crap article on the Guardian saying Syriza will finish second. ::)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 10:57:14 am
I voted 10 min. ago.
Waiting now for the exit polls in five minutes.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on May 06, 2012, 11:05:29 am
ND 17-20%
SYRIZA 15.5%-18.5%
PASOK 14-17%
ANEL 10-12%
KKE 7.5%-9.5%
XA 6-8%
DIMAR 4.5%-6.5%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Vosem on May 06, 2012, 11:06:15 am
Prediction:
ND 109 seats
PASOK 43 seats
SYRIZA 30 seats
ANEL 28 seats
KKE 27 seats
DIMAR 23 seats
XA 15 seats
LAOS 10 seats
Greens 9 seats
DISY 6 seats




Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 11:25:37 am
Results:

http://www.ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012a/public/index.html?lang=en


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 11:27:03 am
(http://thumbs.dreamstime.com/thumblarge_327/1225214460loO2w2.jpg)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on May 06, 2012, 11:32:47 am
When will we start getting actual numbers?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 11:33:57 am
When will we start getting actual numbers?

Small precincts have already started to report.
Conclusive results we'll have in 2 hours.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: RodPresident on May 06, 2012, 11:47:16 am
My hope is that DISY fails to enter parliament and Axis of Evil fails to get majority.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2012, 11:49:12 am
Lets do some simple math.  It seems ND + PASOK has 31-37% of the vote.
Lets take 34% as the result.  I know the rules are complex but assuming that we take the medium value of below

Political Party          Percentage (%)
New Democracy             17 - 20
Syriza                    15.5 - 18.5
Pasok                     14 - 17
Independent Greeks        10 - 12
Communist Party           7.5 - 9.5
Golden Dawn               6 - 8
Democratic Left           4.5 - 6.5
Laos                      2.5 - 3.5
Green Party               2.5 - 3.5

Gets us 88.5% assuming LAOS and Greens makes it past the 3%.  One has to assume Golden Dawn will perform better than exit polls.  So as long as LAOS and Greens make it past 3% the "wasted vote" would be around 10%.  This will give the pro-austrity package parties 95 PR seats.  Add in the 50 bonus seats which we can assume for now would be ND (could end up being Syriza) would still put the 2 mainstream parties at below majority.  

If that is what happends the new government would have to include parties what want to re-do the "contract."  This would be very bad for the markets monday.



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 11:50:11 am
Wasn't DIMAR polling high enough to become PASOK's succesor as the standard bearer of the (centerish) left at one point?



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 06, 2012, 12:03:26 pm
(http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/4c1219407f8b9a376f560900/merkel.jpg)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jeron on May 06, 2012, 12:07:29 pm
Prediction:
XA 15 seats


Terrible, just terrible.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jeron on May 06, 2012, 12:14:03 pm
Lets do some simple math.  It seems ND + PASOK has 31-37% of the vote.
Lets take 34% as the result.  I know the rules are complex but assuming that we take the medium value of below

Political Party          Percentage (%)
New Democracy             17 - 20
Syriza                    15.5 - 18.5
Pasok                     14 - 17
Independent Greeks        10 - 12
Communist Party           7.5 - 9.5
Golden Dawn               6 - 8
Democratic Left           4.5 - 6.5
Laos                      2.5 - 3.5
Green Party               2.5 - 3.5

Gets us 88.5% assuming LAOS and Greens makes it past the 3%.  One has to assume Golden Dawn will perform better than exit polls.  So as long as LAOS and Greens make it past 3% the "wasted vote" would be around 10%.  This will give the pro-austrity package parties 95 PR seats.  Add in the 50 bonus seats which we can assume for now would be ND (could end up being Syriza) would still put the 2 mainstream parties at below majority.  

If that is what happends the new government would have to include parties what want to re-do the "contract."  This would be very bad for the markets monday.



But the prediction still gives ND and PASOK 152 seats, which is a tiny majority.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 12:16:08 pm
Lets do some simple math.  It seems ND + PASOK has 31-37% of the vote.
Lets take 34% as the result.  I know the rules are complex but assuming that we take the medium value of below

Political Party          Percentage (%)
New Democracy             17 - 20
Syriza                    15.5 - 18.5
Pasok                     14 - 17
Independent Greeks        10 - 12
Communist Party           7.5 - 9.5
Golden Dawn               6 - 8
Democratic Left           4.5 - 6.5
Laos                      2.5 - 3.5
Green Party               2.5 - 3.5

Gets us 88.5% assuming LAOS and Greens makes it past the 3%.  One has to assume Golden Dawn will perform better than exit polls.  So as long as LAOS and Greens make it past 3% the "wasted vote" would be around 10%.  This will give the pro-austrity package parties 95 PR seats.  Add in the 50 bonus seats which we can assume for now would be ND (could end up being Syriza) would still put the 2 mainstream parties at below majority.  

If that is what happends the new government would have to include parties what want to re-do the "contract."  This would be very bad for the markets monday.



But the prediction still gives ND and PASOK 152 seats, which is a tiny majority.

As if they could risk that! Look at the number of defections both sides have seen since this whole fiasco began.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2012, 12:29:07 pm
It seems that if ND+PASOK does not reach majority or gets is a very slim majority as seems likely the two main pro-European Union parties  are now likely to win less than 40 per cent of the vote, their  leaders, Antonis Samaras and Evangelos Venizelos, may decide to press for a second election to be held within a few weeks,  rather than try to govern with an overall majority of less than 20 seats.



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 12:34:37 pm
Hey guys, do you know how to get a permanent visa for Canada, Australia, the moon?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 12:36:12 pm
Prediction:
XA 15 seats


Terrible, just terrible.

Urgh, yeah. Quite.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 12:44:06 pm
I will probably vote DISY if for no other reason because they are the only reasonable and responsible voice in the current political cacophony.
And I had you down for PASOK-no-matter-what. :o


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: hawkeye59 on May 06, 2012, 12:46:36 pm
Can someone tell me why austerity is good or bad?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 12:48:16 pm
My hope is that DISY fails to enter parliament and Axis of Evil fails to get majority.
Axis of Evil? ND-PASOK-ANEL-Far Right(-DISY)? :P


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 12:49:22 pm
Oh, cool. 8) Live results.

PASOK leading in Crete (lol), Syriza all over the metro and in Patras, ND in the Rhodopes and one more random place, KKE on Samos.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 12:54:01 pm
The Nazis at 7% right now, with about 1/5 counted.

Just like I expected them. They polled at about 5/6% before the election, but I predicted that they'll overpoll slightly, but not get more than 10%.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 12:55:22 pm
What's the last election where PASOK failed to be the largest party in all 4 Districts on Crete. 1977?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 12:57:16 pm
What's the last election where PASOK failed to be the largest party in all 4 Districts on Crete. 1977?
2004, actually. Freak result in Rhethymnon (usually their weakest), above average swing to ND that year, back to PASOK next time.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 01:07:49 pm
I haven't checked where results be from, but Laos, DISY and Greens all narrowishly below 3% atm. That ought to make finding a "majority" for Samaras a lot easier if it holds.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 01:13:12 pm
What's the last election where PASOK failed to be the largest party in all 4 Districts on Crete. 1977?
2004, actually. Freak result in Rhethymnon (usually their weakest), above average swing to ND that year, back to PASOK next time.

Well, might happen again today. SYRIZA ahead in Chanion with 18% reporting.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 01:14:28 pm
What's the last election where PASOK failed to be the largest party in all 4 Districts on Crete. 1977?
2004, actually. Freak result in Rhethymnon (usually their weakest), above average swing to ND that year, back to PASOK next time.

Well, might happen again today. SYRIZA ahead in Chanion with 18% reporting.
Oh, and in 1977 EK was the strongest party in Crete, not PASOK (nor ND).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 06, 2012, 01:15:40 pm
ND is actually doing a lot worse than 2009.

KKE hasn't benefitted at all.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 01:17:52 pm
ND is actually doing a lot worse than 2009.

Hardly surprising, that.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 01:18:34 pm
KKE hasn't benefitted at all.

They will say as usually that they did everything right but the people were hoodwinked by the media and their puppetmasters.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 01:21:07 pm
KKE hasn't benefitted at all.

They will say as usually that they did everything right but the people were hoodwinked by the media and their puppetmasters.

And, as usual, the second part of the statement will be technically correct (if a little... well not irrelevant exactly...) And the first not. At all. :D


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2012, 01:25:28 pm
Looks like PASOK just got pushed to 3rd.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 01:26:27 pm
You know, things might end up closeish for first place.

Though probably not.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 01:27:36 pm
KKE hasn't benefitted at all.

They will say as usually that they did everything right but the people were hoodwinked by the media and their puppetmasters.

And, as usual, the second part of the statement will be technically correct (if a little... well not irrelevant exactly...) And the first not. At all. :D

ΚΚΕ has its own newspaper, radio and TV station.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 01:32:12 pm
KKE hasn't benefitted at all.

They will say as usually that they did everything right but the people were hoodwinked by the media and their puppetmasters.

And, as usual, the second part of the statement will be technically correct (if a little... well not irrelevant exactly...) And the first not. At all. :D

ΚΚΕ has its own newspaper, radio and TV station.
Which are, presumably, only listened to and read by the people already hoodwinked by them.

(Does help explain why they're so stable... though it's not as if western Commies didn't/don't have their own newspapers as well.)

I had been wondering regarding the many Greek pollsters quoted on wiki whether the trad. parties don't have their own pollsters as well?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 01:54:40 pm
The official website has the first seat estimate

ND: 114
SYRIZA: 47
PASOK: 44
ANEL: 31
KKE: 25
Nazis: 21
DIMAR: 18


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on May 06, 2012, 01:55:18 pm
The Greek electoral system is rigged. I don't see how anybody who isn't a hack or an idiot can find anything good in that system.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: bgwah on May 06, 2012, 01:57:25 pm
Golden Dawn's top districts:

11.70% Korinthias
10.70% Lakonias
10.70% Argolidos
10.20% Attikis
9.15% Eyvoias


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on May 06, 2012, 02:01:36 pm
So with all the recent sprees of defections what would be a safe majority for an ND/PASOK coalition?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 02:02:18 pm
That's an... odd list. Attika and Negroponte (whatever the English transcription of Euböa is) have been good to LAOS as well, Morea the Peloponnese not really. And while the Peloponnese includes PASOK strongholds, ND strongholds, and more swingy areas, the list combines the latter with part of the middle ones. And other LAOS strongholds are missing.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 06, 2012, 02:03:16 pm
The official website has the first seat estimate

ND: 114
SYRIZA: 47
PASOK: 44
ANEL: 31
KKE: 25
Nazis: 21
DIMAR: 18

If that's true, ND + PASOK = 158. Solid majority, no?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 02:05:10 pm
There will be no ND-PASOK coalition government. The projections show that they will both have around 146 seats.
We are probably going to new elections in 40-50 days. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 06, 2012, 02:06:23 pm
Sorry, but how can they just call new elections? Some sort of runoff system?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 02:06:31 pm
That depends on Greens, DISY and LAOS staying out. As to solid... who knows. Have you seen the numbers of defections during the last parliament? Nothing is solid, in a way. Then again, can you expect similar things again, even assuming there will be "events"? Who knows? Certainly not we.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 02:07:21 pm
Sorry, but how can they just call new elections? Some sort of runoff system?
If no one can form a government quickly, there are new elections. Greece has the rules on that set down fairly tightly. There's a discussion of it; in the "super predictions" thread IIRC.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Korwinist on May 06, 2012, 02:14:31 pm
If the forces of the "hard" left united, they could win this election...

They wouldn't. ND and PASOK are both very much closer to each other than anyone else due to their positions regarding the Eurozone, and what matters will be whether those two get a combined majority over the small anti-Eurozone parties (in that sense, the KKE and LAOS are closer to each other than to their respective "wingmates").


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 02:18:32 pm
ND % of the vote
2009: 33.5%
2012: 20.7%

-12.8%

ND seats
2009: 91
2012: 113

+22

lol Greek electoral system


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 02:19:31 pm
It's not really getting closer anymore either.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dan the Roman on May 06, 2012, 02:26:12 pm
It's not really getting closer anymore either.

Nothing coming in from Athens. Whats out will be Syriza heavy. Not enough for the lead but a brief look at whats out points to about a 2% swing.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on May 06, 2012, 02:27:36 pm
It's not really getting closer anymore either.

I may be reading this wrong but I think only 26% of the vote is in. Hopefully it'll get closer. I may be on the right and in favor of the European consensus but I want the smile wiped off of Samaras's face.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Korwinist on May 06, 2012, 02:29:09 pm
ND % of the vote
2009: 33.5%
2012: 20.7%

-12.8%

ND seats
2009: 91
2012: 113

+22

lol Greek electoral system

Because PASOK was utterly destroyed

43.9% and 129 seats to
14.4% and 44 seats

The smaller parties, especially the anti-bailout left (Syriza, KKE) and right (Independent Greeks, LAOS, the Nazis), took a way bigger chunk of the vote.

From what I can tell, the pro-bailout parties aren't going to be able to form a government, which probably is getting the Euro bankers into a panic.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 02:29:46 pm
It's not really getting closer anymore either.

Nothing coming in from Athens. Whats out will be Syriza heavy. Not enough for the lead but a brief look at whats out points to about a 2% swing.
Yeah, may just have been a couple of non-Syriza-heavy updates, Crete is above average reporting fwiw.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 02:31:43 pm
ND % of the vote
2009: 33.5%
2012: 20.7%

-12.8%

ND seats
2009: 91
2012: 113

+22

lol Greek electoral system

Because PASOK was utterly destroyed

43.9% and 129 seats to
14.4% and 44 seats

The smaller parties, especially the anti-bailout left (Syriza, KKE) and right (Independent Greeks, LAOS, the Nazis), took a way bigger chunk of the vote.

From what I can tell, the pro-bailout parties aren't going to be able to form a government, which probably is getting the Euro bankers into a panic.

I'm aware of why it happened; that doesn't make the system any less ridiculous.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 02:34:04 pm
Kyklades have just flipped. :D


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 02:51:44 pm
With 31.52% reporting:

ND:         112   20,34 %
SYRIZA:    48   15,73 %
PASOK:    43    14,14 %
ANEL:       32   10,31 %
KKE:         26    8,42 %
XA:           21    6,80 %
DIMAR:     18    6,00 %
LAOS:               2,88 %
Greens:            2,79 %
DISY:                2,57 %


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 02:56:14 pm
Dimiourga Xana 1.91
Drasi 1.61
Antarsya 1.16
Koinoniki Symfonia 0.91
etc pp ct


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dan the Roman on May 06, 2012, 02:58:19 pm
With 31.52% reporting:

ND:         112   20,34 %
SYRIZA:    48   15,73 %
PASOK:    43    14,14 %
ANEL:       32   10,31 %
KKE:         26    8,42 %
XA:           21    6,80 %
DIMAR:     18    6,00 %
LAOS:               2,88 %
Greens:            2,79 %
DISY:                2,57 %


And looking at whats out, and the trend for the ND lead to shrink as more comes in, it will probably close a bit more.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on May 06, 2012, 02:59:43 pm
What are the chances we see ND go below 20%?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 03:00:44 pm
Fairly good I suppose. But possibly not all that much lower.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 03:01:41 pm
33.47% reporting now; what's coming in is pushing ND and PASOK down, keeping DISY away from the threshold, and mostly boosting SYRIZA (but also helping Greens and XA a bit).

ND:         112   20,26 %
SYRIZA:    48   15,81 %
PASOK:    43    14,06 %
ANEL:       32   10,32 %
KKE:         26    8,42 %
XA:           21    6,83 %
DIMAR:     18    6,00 %
LAOS:               2,88 %
Greens:            2,81 %
DISY:                2,53 %


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 03:02:29 pm
DISY won't make it, I am ready to declare. Far too early to tell for Greens and LAOS (my money is on aye for the latter, really can't tell for the former).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 03:13:29 pm
Hmmm... ND actually creeping back up as of the last updates...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 03:17:04 pm
36.90% reporting. Looks like new results are from conservative areas; ND/ANEL big winners at the expense of KKE/SYRIZA/DISY. LAOS getting closer to threshold.

ND:         112   20.36 %
SYRIZA:    48   15.79 %
PASOK:    43    14.08 %
ANEL:       32   10.35 %
KKE:         26    8.34 %
XA:           21    6.83 %
DIMAR:     18    5.98 %
LAOS:               2.89 %
Greens:            2.80 %
DISY:                2.49 %


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 03:25:21 pm
39.39% reporting (8117/20605 precincts)

Leftists and nationalists gain vote share at the expense of PASOK and ND. SYRIZA gains a seat from the Commies.

ND:         112   20.28%
SYRIZA:    49   15.86%
PASOK:    43    13.98%
ANEL:       32   10.39%
KKE:         25    8.31%
XA:           21    6.85%
DIMAR:     18    5.99%
LAOS:               2.90%
Greens:            2.81%
DISY:                2.49%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 03:33:10 pm
Sorry, but how can they just call new elections? Some sort of runoff system?
If no one can form a government quickly, there are new elections. Greece has the rules on that set down fairly tightly. There's a discussion of it; in the "super predictions" thread IIRC.

It was earlier in this thread, actually. :) Here's a repost, given the, er, likelihood that these results end up being an unworkable mess for everyone involved:

Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

  • As soon as the new Parliament takes office, the President gives the leader of the largest party an exploratory mandate, and this leader has three days to form a Government that can hold the confidence of Parliament.
  • If the first party can't form a government in three days, the President gives the leader of the second largest party an exploratory mandate, again with three days.
  • If that party can't form a government in time either, then the President gives the third largest party's leader an exploratory mandate and another three three days.
(note: in the event of a tie in seat total, the party with more votes in the last election takes precedence. If there's a tie for third place [or a three-way tie for second place, I suppose] the President has the option of giving a fourth exploratory mandate to the tied party. In no circumstance can he give more than four.)
  • If all of the exploratory mandates fail, the President is required to convene and chair a meeting of all Parliamentary party leaders (even inviting, if he desires, the leaders of parties too small to form official Parliamentary groups). At this meeting, one last chance exists for the various party leaders to negotiate and attempt to form a coalition.
  • If that fails too, the President must "make every endeavor" to have an all-party unity government formed in order to immediately administer new elections.
  • If the President can't even get the parties to cooperate for that, he has to pick one of the Chief Justices of Greece's three Supreme Courts to form a Cabinet to call for new elections. The President then dissolves Parliament.


Essentially, Greece has some pretty strict time limits for coalition negotiations that could lead to a very intense nine/ten days, and if ND (assuming they're the largest party, o/c) can't manage to form a government in 72 hours, then the parties that have the second and third most seats suddenly become much more important (and there's like six different parties those could be).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 03:42:09 pm
42.69% reporting (8796/20605 precincts)
Big loser in this batch is ND; big gains for the commies suggest this is one of those areas where KKE always does well.

ND:         112   20.21%
SYRIZA:    49   15.90%
PASOK:    43    13.95%
ANEL:       32   10.40%
KKE:         25    8.37%
XA:           21    6.85%
DIMAR:     18    5.99%
LAOS:               2.89%
Greens:            2.81%
DISY:                2.50%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on May 06, 2012, 03:59:14 pm
New Democracy look about to fall under 20%, and SYRIZA above 16%.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 03:59:18 pm
47.17% reporting (9720/20605 precincts)

PASOK loses a seat to KKE. ND and PASOK vote share is falling; SYRIZA biggest winner in this batch. DISY and Greens both inching towards the quota, while LAOS shows little movement

ND:  112    20.09%
SYRIZA:    49    15.99%
PASOK:    42    13.87%
ANEL:    32    10.42%
KKE:    26    8.37%
XA:    21    6.84%
DIMAR:    18    6.00%
LAOS:       2.88%
Greens:       2.82%
DISY:       2.57%

(I made the results an actual table so it looks nicer :))


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 04:23:23 pm
About to post new results once the next batch of precincts come in and there's over 50% reporting, but here's minor party results right now:

DX!: 1.98% (centrists)
Drasi: 1.64% (liberal)
ANTARSYA: 1.16% (revolutionary communist)
parties without one percent: 5.37% (a wide variety, including Pirates, another Green party, a half dozen communist splinter groups, some perennial candidates, independent alliances, and the current parliamentary caucus KOISY)

My favorite minor party names would have to be "Renewing Independent Left, Renewing Right, Renewing Pasok, Renewing New Democracy, No to War, Party of Action, I Give Away Land, I Give Away Debts, Save Lives, Panagrarian Labour Movement of Greece" (perennial candidate) as well as "Communist Party of Greece (Marxist-Leninist) – Marxist-Leninist Communist Party of Greece" (a union of two splinter groups).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 04:28:21 pm
52.54% reporting (10825/20605 precincts)

ND loses a seat to DIMAR. PASOK is falling dramatically, ND losing vote share as well. SYRIZA within four points of the lead now.

ND:  111    20.02%
SYRIZA:    49    16.09%
PASOK:    42    13.75%
ANEL:    32    10.45%
KKE:    26    8.36%
XA:    21    6.87%
DIMAR:    19    6.00%
LAOS:       2.87%
Greens:       2.83%
DISY:       2.54%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lasitten on May 06, 2012, 04:35:04 pm
My favorite minor party names would have to be "Renewing Independent Left, Renewing Right, Renewing Pasok, Renewing New Democracy, No to War, Party of Action, I Give Away Land, I Give Away Debts, Save Lives, Panagrarian Labour Movement of Greece" (perennial candidate) as well as "Communist Party of Greece (Marxist-Leninist) – Marxist-Leninist Communist Party of Greece" (a union of two splinter groups).

This party is cool to: ""Can't Pay, Won't Pay" Movement". Now because of the election result the negotiations for cabinet are going to be tough. I hope that SYRIZA is going to lead the cabinet. How could ND form a majority?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2012, 04:40:42 pm
I guess they can try to form a Europhile ND-PASOK-DIMAR government based on keeping Greece in the EU and minor tweeks in the deal with EU.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 04:46:11 pm
55.96% reporting (11527/20605 precincts)

ND and PASOK vote share continue to collapse. SYRIZA gains a seat from DIMAR. Greens keep inching towards threshold and may soon overtake LAOS.

ND:  111    19.98%
SYRIZA:    50    16.12%
PASOK:    42    13.69%
ANEL:    32    10.44%
KKE:    26    8.38%
XA:    21    6.87%
DIMAR:    18    6.01%
LAOS:       2.87%
Greens:       2.84%
DISY:       2.53%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: argentarius on May 06, 2012, 04:48:54 pm
I know this is a bit late to be asking, but what do the parties generally stand for?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 06, 2012, 04:49:26 pm
I guess the big question is whether more parties get in or not?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: rob in cal on May 06, 2012, 04:54:51 pm
If a non-ND government is formed this would be a case of the largest party not participating in government, I wonder when the last time that has happened in Europe.  If they didn't have the ridiculous seat bonus, I'm guessing it would be fairly likely that they wouldn't be able to form a coalition but I wonder with that seat bonus if they will have enough seats to form some weird coalition.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 04:57:07 pm
If a non-ND government is formed this would be a case of the largest party not participating in government, I wonder when the last time that has happened in Europe. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_parliamentary_election,_2011


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 04:57:19 pm
I think having the seat bonus may actually make things more difficult... without it a SYRIZA-PASOK-KKE-DIMAR coalition might be able to get hobbled together.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lasitten on May 06, 2012, 04:59:10 pm
I think having the seat bonus may actually make things more difficult... without it a SYRIZA-PASOK-KKE-DIMAR coalition might be able to get hobbled together.

Hmmm, PASOK and KKE in the same cabinet would be interesting.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 05:00:23 pm
If a non-ND government is formed this would be a case of the largest party not participating in government, I wonder when the last time that has happened in Europe. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_parliamentary_election,_2011

Even better example might be Belgium 2010:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgian_general_election,_2010


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 05:00:44 pm
I know this is a bit late to be asking, but what do the parties generally stand for?

Some blatant oversimplifications:

PASOK: center-left, pro-austerity, historically major party
ND: center-right, pro-austerity, historically major party
KKL: communist hard-liners, historically third party (with 7-8% vote ceiling)
SYRIZA: left, anti-austerity
DIMAR: center-left, somewhat ambiguous towards austerity
ANEL: right, anti-austerity
XA: fascist, anti-immigrant and anti-austerity
LAOS: right, anti-immigrant, somewhat ambiguous towards austerity
DISY: centrist to center-right, pro-austerity


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 05:04:27 pm
61.06% reporting (12581/20605 precincts)

ND and PASOK keep falling, SYRIZA keeps gaining; Greens almost overtaking LAOS.

ND:  111    19.80%
SYRIZA:    50    16.22%
PASOK:    42    13.65%
ANEL:    32    10.49%
KKE:    26    8.39%
XA:    21    6.89%
DIMAR:    18    6.02%
LAOS:       2.86%
Greens:       2.85%
DISY:       2.55%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on May 06, 2012, 05:09:35 pm
KKE would never have participated in any government, certainly not with PASOK and most definitely not with SYRIZA. KKE formally ruled out any coalition with anybody.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Zuza on May 06, 2012, 05:15:31 pm
"Renewing Independent Left, Renewing Right, Renewing Pasok, Renewing New Democracy, No to War, Party of Action, I Give Away Land, I Give Away Debts, Save Lives, Panagrarian Labour Movement of Greece" (perennial candidate)
Joke candidate?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Yelnoc on May 06, 2012, 05:16:50 pm
I wonder what will happen if ND and PASOK form another coalition?  If I were Greek I would scream bloody murder.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: hawkeye59 on May 06, 2012, 05:21:12 pm
Why is austerity bad, and what is the alternative?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 05:22:01 pm
Parties in first by electoral district, sorted by percent reporting so far
90%-100% reporting: 6 total; 6 ND
80%-90% reporting: 7 total; 5 ND, 1 KKE, 1 SYRIZA
70%-80% reporting: 11 total; 8 ND, 2 PASOK, 1 SYRIZA
60%-70% reporting: 16 total; 11 ND, 5 SYRIZA
50%-60% reporting: 12 total; 6 ND, 2 PASOK, 4 SYRIZA
40%-50% reporting:4 total; 1 ND, 3 SYRIZA

Looks like the gap between ND and SYRIZA will continue to narrow.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 05:26:27 pm
"Renewing Independent Left, Renewing Right, Renewing Pasok, Renewing New Democracy, No to War, Party of Action, I Give Away Land, I Give Away Debts, Save Lives, Panagrarian Labour Movement of Greece" (perennial candidate)
Joke candidate?

Indeed.

Why is austerity bad, and what is the alternative?

People hate it because it's caused massive cuts in pensions, minimum wage, and universal tax hikes while the economy is in the hole and unemployment is astronomical. No alternative though that doesn't involve leaving the Eurozone, and even then there'd still be horrible economic repercussions. (or, that's my understanding anyway, don't know too much about the details).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: hawkeye59 on May 06, 2012, 05:27:32 pm
"Renewing Independent Left, Renewing Right, Renewing Pasok, Renewing New Democracy, No to War, Party of Action, I Give Away Land, I Give Away Debts, Save Lives, Panagrarian Labour Movement of Greece" (perennial candidate)
Joke candidate?

Indeed.

Why is austerity bad, and what is the alternative?

People hate it because it's caused massive cuts in pensions, minimum wage, and universal tax hikes while the economy is in the hole and unemployment is astronomical. No alternative though that doesn't involve leaving the Eurozone, and even then there'd still be horrible economic repercussions. (or, that's my understanding anyway, don't know too much about the details).
So, PASOK and ND are the best?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 05:28:40 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/3335_05_10_09_11_45_40.png)

Says 1000 words.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 05:29:31 pm
66.97% reporting (13799/20605 precincts)

More gains for SYRIZA; ND held mostly steady this update. Greens only 110 votes from overtaking LAOS now.

ND:  111    19.79%
SYRIZA:    50    16.27%
PASOK:    42    13.63%
ANEL:    32    10.49%
KKE:    26    8.36%
XA:    21    6.88%
DIMAR:    18    6.04%
LAOS:       2.86%
Greens:       2.86%
DISY:       2.53%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 05:29:40 pm
Unless we have a huge surprise, there are going to be new elections by June 17.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 06, 2012, 05:30:36 pm
"Renewing Independent Left, Renewing Right, Renewing Pasok, Renewing New Democracy, No to War, Party of Action, I Give Away Land, I Give Away Debts, Save Lives, Panagrarian Labour Movement of Greece" (perennial candidate)
Joke candidate?

Indeed.

Why is austerity bad, and what is the alternative?

People hate it because it's caused massive cuts in pensions, minimum wage, and universal tax hikes while the economy is in the hole and unemployment is astronomical. No alternative though that doesn't involve leaving the Eurozone, and even then there'd still be horrible economic repercussions. (or, that's my understanding anyway, don't know too much about the details).
So, PASOK and ND are the best?

PASOK and ND especially are the reason Greece is in the mess it's in (that and the Euro). Pretty much all of these parties are bad.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 05:36:10 pm
Unless we have a huge surprise, there are going to be new elections by June 17.

Any idea what might happen then?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dan the Roman on May 06, 2012, 05:37:03 pm
Unless we have a huge surprise, there are going to be new elections by June 17.

Any idea what might happen then?

Pasok crashes enough for SYRIZA to come first?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 05:38:43 pm
Unless we have a huge surprise, there are going to be new elections by June 17.

Any idea what might happen then?

Your guess is as good as mine. Let's hope that people have vented off enough and when they see that SYRIZA and the rest of the joke parties have absolutely no intention to govern, they will vote more wisely.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on May 06, 2012, 05:39:17 pm
Why are KKE and Syriza so against each other?
Left vs hard left...both against austerity...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on May 06, 2012, 05:41:40 pm
Why are Trotskyists and Stalinists so against each other, they're both for communism! :P


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 05:42:29 pm
Why are KKE and Syriza so against each other?
Left vs hard left...both against austerity...

Historical tensions... two decades ago they were in an alliance and then had a falling out


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 05:43:24 pm
70.48% reporting (14522/20605 precincts)

ND:  111    19.77%
SYRIZA:    50    16.28%
PASOK:    42    13.59%
ANEL:    32    10.49%
KKE:    26    8.36%
XA:    21    6.88%
DIMAR:    18    6.04%
LAOS:       2.86%
Greens:       2.86%
DISY:       2.55%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on May 06, 2012, 05:44:36 pm
Why are KKE and Syriza so against each other?
Left vs hard left...both against austerity...

Historical tensions... two decades ago they were in an alliance and then had a falling out
LOL
Talk about short-sightedness.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 06, 2012, 05:46:30 pm
If there are new elections in June, the same candidates will be running, no?

Also, who are the leaders of the parties besides ND and PASOK, and what are their personalities?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 06, 2012, 05:48:51 pm
Guys, the KKE is kind of a joke party relic of the Cold War. Go read what their leaders and platform actually say. I doubt they'd ever join any government.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on May 06, 2012, 05:52:04 pm
...I don't see why the coalition fails.  ND-PASOK, despite their historic animosity towards each other, have a vested interest in making the grand coalition (not so grand anymore, but take the term) work, because if they call people back to the polls, they'll just keep going down.  An ND-PASOK coalition has 153/300 seats, enough, barely, to trudge along passing unpopular austerity packages through etc.  If they call another election, PASOK will likely sink to the point that SYRIZA might become the largest party and form an anti-austerity government.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 05:55:20 pm
Parties in first by electoral district, sorted by percent reporting so far
95%-100% reporting: 10 total; 9 ND, 1 KKE
90%-95% reporting: 2 total; 1 ND, 1 SYRIZA
85%-90% reporting: 5 total; 5 ND
80%-85% reporting: 4 total; 3 ND, 1 SYRIZA
75%-80% reporting: 7 total; 4 ND, 2 PASOK, 1 SYRIZA
70%-75% reporting: 8 total; 5 ND, 3 SYRIZA
65%-70% reporting: 6 total; 4 ND, 1 PASOK, 1 SYRIZA
60%-65% reporting: 8 total; 4 ND, 3 SYRIZA, 1 PASOK
55%-60% reporting: 2 total; 1 ND, 1 SYRIZA
50%-55% reporting: 3 total; 3 SYRIZA

Also, significantly, the (by far) largest district in the country, with 42 seats, is giving Syriza 22% with only 62% reporting.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 05:56:14 pm
...I don't see why the coalition fails.  ND-PASOK, despite their historic animosity towards each other, have a vested interest in making the grand coalition (not so grand anymore, but take the term) work, because if they call people back to the polls, they'll just keep going down.  An ND-PASOK coalition has 153/300 seats, enough, barely, to trudge along passing unpopular austerity packages through etc.  If they call another election, PASOK will likely sink to the point that SYRIZA might become the largest party and form an anti-austerity government.

153 (if they even end up with that by the end of the night) is far too unstable given the amount of defections that ND and PASOK have seen recently.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 05:57:47 pm
If there are new elections in June, the same candidates will be running, no?

Also, who are the leaders of the parties besides ND and PASOK, and what are their personalities?

Presumably yes but this time the representatives will be elected through a list system, not by the constituents marking the name of their prefered candidate.

Tsipras (SYRIZA) is an arrogant brat. Imagine Tom Cruise in Top Gun without the redeeming qualities.

Papariga (KKE) is your typical stalinist drone, even though when she speaks candidly she has shown to be a very shrewd politician with a deeply analytical mind.
 
Kamenos (ANEL) is a conservative populist who has always been a media darling because of his overblown rhetoric and flamboyant personality.

Kouvelis (DIMAR) is a low key, experienced statesman.

Mihaloliakos is a far right wing nutjob that would feel right at home at Mississippi back in the segregation days.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 06, 2012, 05:59:46 pm
Don't know if anyone's posted this, but the interactive map on the Guardian of election results is great: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2012/may/06/greece-elections-results-map


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 06:00:13 pm
72.81% reporting (15002/20605 precincts)

Greens have overtaken LAOS! Good shot that they'll make it into Parliament, based on what's out. Also, ND/PASOK fall some more while SYRIZA gains. Only 3.4% gap between top two now.

ND:  111    19.71%
SYRIZA:    50    16.33%
PASOK:    42    13.55%
ANEL:    32    10.47%
KKE:    26    8.38%
XA:    21    6.88%
DIMAR:    18    6.04%
Greens:       2.86%
LAOS:       2.86%
DISY:       2.56%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 06:09:23 pm
72.81% reporting (15002/20605 precincts)

Greens have overtaken LAOS! Good shot that they'll make it into Parliament, based on what's out. Also, ND/PASOK fall some more while SYRIZA gains. Only 3.4% gap between top two now.

ND:  111    19.71%
SYRIZA:    50    16.33%
PASOK:    42    13.55%
ANEL:    32    10.47%
KKE:    26    8.38%
XA:    21    6.88%
DIMAR:    18    6.04%
Greens:       2.86%
LAOS:       2.86%
DISY:       2.56%

They won't.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 06:11:52 pm
74.71% reporting (15393/20605 precincts)

ND loses a seat to DIMAR somewhere. Greens inching closer to threshold. Difference between ND and SYRIZA: 3.34%

ND:  110    19.68%
SYRIZA:    50    16.34%
PASOK:    42    13.55%
ANEL:    32    10.47%
KKE:    26    8.38%
XA:    21    6.89%
DIMAR:    19    6.04%
Greens:       2.87%
LAOS:       2.86%
DISY:       2.58%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 06:16:43 pm
Don't know if anyone's posted this, but the interactive map on the Guardian of election results is great: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2012/may/06/greece-elections-results-map

I second that.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 06:19:37 pm
px, how does Greek seat distribution actually work?

Like, for example, I have no idea what the hell is going on in Imathias:

ND: 21%, no seats
PASOK: 16%, no seats
SYRIZA: 13%, no seats
ANEL: 12%, 1 seat
KKE: 9%, 1 seat
XA: 8%, 1 seat
DIMAR: 6%, 1 seat



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: netzero19 on May 06, 2012, 06:20:58 pm
So an ND Pasok coalition now has a majority of 1...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 06, 2012, 06:21:37 pm
Yeah I thought seat distribution was nationwide proportional (with the 3% threshold and the +50 seat thing), but then apparently each constituency has seats as well but these seats aren't really distributed proportionally but the national numbers still match what they should be if seat distribution was done nationally?!


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 06:25:44 pm
77.60% reporting (15989/20605 precincts)

ND and PASOK vote share continues to fall, with pretty much every other party increasing. Greens continue to approach threshold, with LAOS showing movement as well.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 3.12%

ND:  110    19.53%
SYRIZA:    50    16.41%
PASOK:    42    13.49%
ANEL:    32    10.51%
KKE:    26    8.38%
XA:    21    6.91%
DIMAR:    19    6.05%
Greens:       2.88%
LAOS:       2.87%
DISY:       2.58%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 06:26:12 pm
Re: Lewis' enthusiasm for the KKE's strength on Samos:

The isle of Samos itself is actually rather disappointing for the KKE and seems to have ND as largest party right now, nearby Ikarias makes the whole into a leftwing bulwark. KKE+SYRIZA at over 60%.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 06:27:50 pm
The good news for the Greens is that they'll get another shot at making it into Parliament in only a month :D


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Korwinist on May 06, 2012, 06:28:39 pm
Of course, the only reason the ND-PASOK coalition is even forming a plurality (let alone a majority) is because they rigged it by giving the #1 party a 50 man bonus, knowing that either one was guaranteed to come first even if they both bombed.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 06, 2012, 06:29:03 pm
Figuring in the majority bonus, here's how Parliament would look with those results:
It would certainly be hilarious if the Communists took Greece 65 years late.

Well, the Communists took Cyprus.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 06:30:14 pm
Also thank God for Patras, the Peloponisos would be absolutely horrible without that touch of pink at the top. (Nice town to waste a touristy afternoon as well)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 06:36:46 pm
Of course, the only reason the ND-PASOK coalition is even forming a plurality (let alone a majority) is because they rigged it by giving the #1 party a 50 man bonus, knowing that either one was guaranteed to come first even if they both bombed.

To be fair, the law for the 50 seat bonus was first passed in 2007, and the "reinforced proportionality" system has been the norm in Greece since they got rid of the junta (excluding a failed experiment with direct proportionality in 1989 that caused 3 elections in 10 months). Not something that was put in place because everyone hates 'em now.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on May 06, 2012, 06:40:58 pm
Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 06:41:05 pm
80.02% reporting (16588/20605 precincts)
~25% of remaining precincts are from Athens.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 3.05%

ND:  110    19.48%
SYRIZA:    50    16.43%
PASOK:    42    13.51%
ANEL:    32    10.52%
KKE:    26    8.38%
XA:    21    6.89%
DIMAR:    19    6.07%
Greens:       2.88%
LAOS:       2.86%
DISY:       2.58%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2012, 06:44:28 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_general_election,_1999

One Israel which is really a alliance dominted by Labor Party only got 20.2% and was the top vote getter

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 06:44:48 pm
Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

How about this? Not really the same, though, given that parties only compete in half of the country (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgian_general_election,_2010).

Quote
Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.

Yep.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2012, 06:47:39 pm
I found one

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_general_election,_1988

Two top parties both got 19.3%


Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Also, the idea that PASOK/ND is even possible after combining for only 33% of the vote is an absurd failure of democracy.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 06, 2012, 06:48:53 pm
So will the right have a ruling coalition just because of the 50 seat bonus? That's really two questions, will they have a ruling coalition, and would they not without the 50 seat bonus?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2012, 06:55:15 pm
Yep.  It is pretty sad the ND-PASOK will get less that 33% of the vote but will, in theory, be able to form a government.  The vote got split amoung too many parties which failed to cross 3% AND the 50 seat bonus seems to have done it.  Of course both ND and PASOK seems to be losing vote share as the count continues so I can see them being down to 150.

So will the right have a ruling coalition just because of the 50 seat bonus? That's really two questions, will they have a ruling coalition, and would they not without the 50 seat bonus?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 06:56:27 pm
So will the right have a ruling coalition just because of the 50 seat bonus? That's really two questions, will they have a ruling coalition, and would they not without the 50 seat bonus?

Right has a majority, but nobody is going to let Golden Dawn into government so that's a nonstarter. The current grand coalition barely has a majority that will be entirely unworkable in practice, and certainly wouldn't have a majority without the bonus.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 06:56:36 pm
The most obvious being:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2012, 07:01:00 pm
The most obvious being:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

I thought of that as well but I choose not to count it because it was the first of two rounds.  I am pretty sure the results would be dramatically different if the voting population in France were told that there would only be one round.  In cases like this the first round votes would be more scattered.  The Greek system only has one round ergo I choose not to go with this example.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on May 06, 2012, 07:06:15 pm
The Thai 1988 election works.  Thanks, jaichind!

Anyway, it'd be difficult at this point, but it's still possible that the Greens cross the barrier, which would utterly change the dynamics and make ND/PASOK impossible in theory as well as practice.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 07:08:25 pm
px, how does Greek seat distribution actually work?

Like, for example, I have no idea what the hell is going on in Imathias:

ND: 21%, no seats
PASOK: 16%, no seats
SYRIZA: 13%, no seats
ANEL: 12%, 1 seat
KKE: 9%, 1 seat
XA: 8%, 1 seat
DIMAR: 6%, 1 seat



That's a good question. Unfortunately I suspect that not even the ones who wrote the law know the answer.

Also thank God for Patras, the Peloponisos would be absolutely horrible without that touch of pink at the top. (Nice town to waste a touristy afternoon as well)

Peloponisos was always one of the most conservative regions but it's not like we are talking about the Deep South. Achaia was always a progressive bastion because the Papandreou clan are from there.



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 07:10:36 pm
85.41% reporting (17391/20605 precincts)
~25% of remaining precincts are from Athens, still.
SYRIZA gains a seat at the expense of PASOK. Movement for Greens and LAOS towards threshold.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.91%

ND:  110    19.40%
SYRIZA:    51    16.49%
PASOK:    41    13.47%
ANEL:    32    10.51%
KKE:    26    8.38%
XA:    21    6.90%
DIMAR:    19    6.06%
Greens:       2.89%
LAOS:       2.87%
DISY:       2.58%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Edu on May 06, 2012, 07:19:30 pm
Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Lol, look at this one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrgyzstani_parliamentary_election,_2010 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrgyzstani_parliamentary_election,_2010)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 07:20:31 pm
86.93% reporting (17911/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.82%

ND:  110    19.33%
SYRIZA:    51    16.51%
PASOK:    41    13.46%
ANEL:    32    10.52%
KKE:    26    8.37%
XA:    21    6.90%
DIMAR:    19    6.07%
Greens:       2.89%
LAOS:       2.87%
DISY:       2.60%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Joe Republic on May 06, 2012, 07:25:53 pm
Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

Lol, look at this one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrgyzstani_parliamentary_election,_2010 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrgyzstani_parliamentary_election,_2010)

I like how the leader of the largest party doesn't even have a Wikipedia page.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on May 06, 2012, 07:32:05 pm
How much further does ND have to drop before they lose another seat?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on May 06, 2012, 07:32:40 pm
Isn't the +50 bonus given only if the most voted party/coalition reaches 39% of the total share?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on May 06, 2012, 07:34:49 pm
And ND loses another to ANEL. ND/PASOK no longer works.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 07:36:00 pm
And ND loses another. ND/PASOK no longer works.

I told you like three hours ago but apparently I was ignored.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on May 06, 2012, 07:37:27 pm
And ND loses another. ND/PASOK no longer works.

I told you like three hours ago but apparently I was ignored.

Yeah, but now it wouldn't even work in theory.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 07:39:09 pm
How much further does ND have to drop before they lose another seat?

An answer for that question requires one to somehow understand the arcane and incomprehensible rules of Greek seat distribution. For example, ND currently has 0 seats out of 4 from Imathias, where they're in first, but 3 out of 8 seats in Irakleiou, where they're in fifth.

Isn't the +50 bonus given only if the most voted party/coalition reaches 39% of the total share?

No, that's the approximate percentage of the vote a party would need to reach a majority from the bonus seats. :)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on May 06, 2012, 07:39:53 pm
If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 07:43:09 pm
89.61% reporting (18464/20605 precincts)

As previously mentioned, ND loses a seat to ANEL.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.72%

ND:  109    19.26%
SYRIZA:    51    16.54%
PASOK:    41    13.42%
ANEL:    33    10.53%
KKE:    26    8.41%
XA:    21    6.91%
DIMAR:    19    6.07%
Greens:       2.90%
LAOS:       2.87%
DISY:       2.60%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 07:43:41 pm
If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 07:44:12 pm
If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

I'd guess like nine seats or so, but see:

An answer for that question requires one to somehow understand the arcane and incomprehensible rules of Greek seat distribution.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 06, 2012, 07:45:53 pm
If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on May 06, 2012, 07:46:20 pm
If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?

Probably because you can't f'ing read? It's obvious from what I wrote I didn't regard it a possibility, I was interested in terms of electoral peculiarity, and for possible future elections.

Thanks Bacon King.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2012, 07:46:44 pm
I guess the only realistic government would be ND-PASOK-DIMAR like I mentioned before.  This government can have a programme of staying in Eurozone and chip away at the deal with the EU bailout but not at the expense of exiting the Euro.  Not sure how realistic this is or how long it would last.  But I can see no other government.  If this does not work out then I guess it would another election.  


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 07:49:01 pm
If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?

I can only speak for myself, but I'm certainly listening to you and appreciate the commentary and answers you've provided. And note that he gave a rather large caveat that greens at 3% was "beyond unlikely"; I don't think he's ignoring you :)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2012, 07:49:46 pm
Markets are already reacting.  US stock futures are off 0.9%.  Oil is off 2% and Korean stock exchange is off 1.5%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Zuza on May 06, 2012, 07:50:16 pm
Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.
And yet another example: Brazil since 1990 (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Brazil#Election_results_1982-2010).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 07:51:58 pm
If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 07:52:50 pm
If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?

I can only speak for myself, but I'm certainly listening to you and appreciate the commentary and answers you've provided. And note that he gave a rather large caveat that greens at 3% was "beyond unlikely"; I don't think he's ignoring you :)

Yeah but following that logic we might as well ask the same thing about the Pirates. It's a useless conversation.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on May 06, 2012, 07:53:45 pm
You know, that's a stupid comparison.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on May 06, 2012, 07:54:03 pm
If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

Independent Greeks and SYRIZA are both passionately anti-austerity and would never participate in an austerity government.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 06, 2012, 07:54:48 pm
If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Ah, thanks. That was a very clear post.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 07:56:38 pm
91.48% reporting (18849/20605 precincts)
~25% votes remaining from Athens
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.65%

ND:  109    19.22%
SYRIZA:    51    16.57%
PASOK:    41    13.41%
ANEL:    33    10.54%
KKE:    26    8.40%
XA:    21    6.92%
DIMAR:    19    6.07%
Greens:       2.90%
LAOS:       2.87%
DISY:       2.60%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on May 06, 2012, 07:57:56 pm
If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

Independent Greeks and SYRIZA are both passionately anti-austerity and would never participate in an austerity government.

To the point where they'd even coalesce against it, despite being polar opposites on the political spectrum. DIMAR were, and have always been, the only possible coalition partner ND-PASOK can turn to.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on May 06, 2012, 07:58:33 pm
ANEL and SYRIZA are anti-bailout, while DIMAR splited from SYRIZA to be on a pondered position. So, jaichind is probably right. Nevertheless, It would be an unstable coalition just like the last Italian leftist one. What do you think, px?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on May 06, 2012, 07:59:10 pm
If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

Independent Greeks and SYRIZA are both passionately anti-austerity and would never participate in an austerity government.

Oh, didn't saw yours.

To the point where they'd even coalesce against it, despite being polar opposites on the political spectrum. DIMAR were, and have always been, the only possible coalition partner ND-PASOK can turn to.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on May 06, 2012, 08:01:14 pm
91.48% reporting (18849/20605 precincts)
~25% votes remaining from Athens
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.65%

ND:  109    19.22%
SYRIZA:    51    16.57%
PASOK:    41    13.41%
ANEL:    33    10.54%
KKE:    26    8.40%
XA:    21    6.92%
DIMAR:    19    6.07%
Greens:      2.90%
LAOS:      2.87%
DISY:      2.60%

Do you believe there is any space to SYRIZA reach ND? I mean, 2.65 in 8.52 is quite an accomplishment.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 08:04:41 pm
If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Ah, thanks. That was a very clear post.

Glad I could help!

Here's a link to the earlier post I referenced, btw (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145547.msg3285175#msg3285175).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on May 06, 2012, 08:08:08 pm
ND all the way down to 19.17%.

ND+PASOK=32.54%.




Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 08:12:46 pm
Do you believe there is any space to SYRIZA reach ND? I mean, 2.65 in 8.52 is quite an accomplishment.

Looking at where votes are out, I think that the race will definitely keep tightening but I doubt it'll be enough to put SYRIZA over the top. I'll give it maybe a one in four chance of happening.

Of course, if SYRIZA does take the lead, from my admittedly poor understanding of Greek electoral law that could lead to a lot of random shifts in seat results for all the parties, given the way that the 50 bonus seats are actually picked among electoral district seats through some convoluted process.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 06, 2012, 08:14:16 pm
Are the Greens anti-austerity?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 08:14:50 pm
93.58% reporting (19282/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.52%

ND:  109    19.14%
SYRIZA:    51    16.62%
PASOK:    41    13.36%
ANEL:    33    10.55%
KKE:    26    8.42%
XA:    21    6.92%
DIMAR:    19    6.08%
Greens:       2.91%
LAOS:       2.88%
DISY:       2.60%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 06, 2012, 08:29:11 pm
Greek Ecologists sounds fairly leftwing, are they anti-austerity?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 08:40:23 pm
94.77% reporting (19476/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.42%

This is going to be close... SYRIZA leads- and is polling above their national percentage- in the ten districts with the most left to report. And in one of those other three regions, ND is leading with a total below their current national average.

ND:  109    19.08%
SYRIZA:    51    16.66%
PASOK:    41    13.32%
ANEL:    33    10.55%
KKE:    26    8.43%
XA:    21    6.93%
DIMAR:    19    6.08%
Greens:       2.91%
LAOS:       2.88%
DISY:       2.59%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 08:40:53 pm
Greek Ecologists sounds fairly leftwing, are they anti-austerity?

I think so, yes.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2012, 08:42:03 pm
This is what I found

--------------------------------------------------------------
Founded in 2002, this environmentalist party has never broken the three per cent barrier necessary to win seats in parliament. That might change this election: polls show the party may narrowly pass the threshold.

Ecologist Greens oppose the memorandum, partly for environmental reasons. Yiannis Paraskevopoulos, the head of the party’s list of state deputies, said that the reforms spelled out in the memorandum favour an "economy of plunder", including plans to drill for oil and mine gold in Greece.

The party supports Greece's membership in the eurozone and the EU. Although Ecologist Greens have said they would not be part of a coalition with New Democracy or PASOK, they may be open to working with SYRIZA
--------------------------------------------------------------------
The memorandum above refers to the second financial rescue package.

Greek Ecologists sounds fairly leftwing, are they anti-austerity?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2012, 08:45:05 pm
Wow, it seems ND might break below 19%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on May 06, 2012, 08:47:09 pm
ND might finish second behind "Other."  :D


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on May 06, 2012, 08:49:15 pm
How I wish there was another 20% to count.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 08:49:40 pm
ND might finish second behind "Other."  :D

fifty deputies for everyone below the threshold to share? :D :P


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 08:59:40 pm
95.85% reporting (19476/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.37%

ND:  109    19.04%
SYRIZA:    51    16.67%
PASOK:    41    13.30%
ANEL:    33    10.55%
KKE:    26    8.44%
XA:    21    6.95%
DIMAR:    19    6.09%
Greens:       2.91%
LAOS:       2.89%
DISY:       2.58%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 06, 2012, 09:17:24 pm
If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Got it, but what is the likely *eventual* outcome of this?  I mean, let's say they keep having election after election for months.....is there some kind of combination of parties that might eventually form a coalition that seems implausible now?  If, for example, SYRIZA gets the most seats in a future election, is there any chance of them forming an anti-austerity coalition that includes both the far left and far right?  Or is that never going to happen?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 06, 2012, 09:23:22 pm
PASOK might eventually have to join an anti-austerity coalition led by SYRIZA in order not to be annihilated. But thats after 2-3 defeats.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 09:26:16 pm
If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Got it, but what is the likely *eventual* outcome of this?  I mean, let's say they keep having election after election for months.....is there some kind of combination of parties that might eventually form a coalition that seems implausible now?  If, for example, SYRIZA gets the most seats in a future election, is there any chance of them forming an anti-austerity coalition that includes both the far left and far right?  Or is that never going to happen?


Anyone who claims to know what the eventual outcome is going to be is a liar/a fool... there's no way of knowing.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 09:28:59 pm
If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Got it, but what is the likely *eventual* outcome of this?  I mean, let's say they keep having election after election for months.....is there some kind of combination of parties that might eventually form a coalition that seems implausible now?  If, for example, SYRIZA gets the most seats in a future election, is there any chance of them forming an anti-austerity coalition that includes both the far left and far right?  Or is that never going to happen?


Anyone who claims to know what the eventual outcome is going to be is a liar/a fool... there's no way of knowing.

Am I a liar/a fool if I claim to know than it won't be pretty?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 09:47:46 pm
If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Got it, but what is the likely *eventual* outcome of this?  I mean, let's say they keep having election after election for months.....is there some kind of combination of parties that might eventually form a coalition that seems implausible now?  If, for example, SYRIZA gets the most seats in a future election, is there any chance of them forming an anti-austerity coalition that includes both the far left and far right?  Or is that never going to happen?


I have no idea what's going to happen. ND has two weeks now to try to negotiate a coalition and there options aren't very good. Only option for them is ND+PASOK+DIMAR or maaybe ND+PASOK+ANEL or ND+ANEL+DIMAR. None of those sound feasible and on the off-chance those are actually agreed to, they certainly won't last long. If there's no coalition, SYRIZA gets a chance, and then PASOK, and neither of them have any path to a majority. Certainly a new election, sooner or later.

As for the probable results of a future election, ND and PASOK would probably lose more support as they appear increasingly unable to govern the country. SYRIZA would probably come in first, and I could possibly see the formation of an anti-austerity SYRIZA+DIMAR+ANEL+(ND/PASOK breakaway parties) coalition form as a result. Honestly though, I've got no idea, this is just a bit of conjecture.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 09:50:00 pm
Also, updated election results

96.57% reporting (19899/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.31%

ND:  109    19.01%
SYRIZA:    51    16.70%
PASOK:    41    13.27%
ANEL:    33    10.56%
KKE:    26    8.45%
XA:    21    6.96%
DIMAR:    19    6.09%
Greens:       2.92%
LAOS:       2.89%
DISY:       2.58%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on May 06, 2012, 10:03:05 pm
The guys on Something Awful argued that the ND's best hope is to encourage bribe individual members of ANEL to jump ship to ND and members of DIMAL to join PASOK.  It'd be a tough sell (who wants to climb onto a sinking ship?), but with the right kind of inducements, it doesn't seem too far out.

Also, ND at exactly 19.00%.

Other's at 18.97%.  I think it'd look so cool to see the "winner" be Other.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 10:06:20 pm
ND is on the verge of losing another seat.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 10:20:18 pm
And there it goes; ND to SYRIZA.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 06, 2012, 10:27:07 pm
97.52% reporting (20094/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.24%
Seat change from ND to SYRIZA
Total other (18.99%) now greater than ND

ND:  108    18.97%
SYRIZA:    52    16.73%
PASOK:    41    13.23%
ANEL:    33    10.57%
KKE:    26    8.46%
XA:    21    6.96%
DIMAR:    19    6.09%
Greens:       2.92%
LAOS:       2.89%
DISY:       2.57%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 06, 2012, 10:48:55 pm
Fun times ahead for Greece!


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on May 06, 2012, 11:01:49 pm
Poor Greek Greens.  2.93%.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 07, 2012, 01:58:44 am
The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on May 07, 2012, 04:47:35 am
'Not in Parl/mnt' is the winning 'party' now.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 07, 2012, 05:26:04 am
The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 

That's truly frightening that the wonderful, peace creating Euro has allowed national socialists to enter a European parliament again.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on May 07, 2012, 05:53:48 am
The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 

The thought that any share of anyone's compatriots voted neonazis inside a parliament is not only depressive, but is another argument against mankind.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 07, 2012, 07:07:14 am
Markets reacting predictably; Greek Stock Market was down 8.2% before a slight rally that's "only" left it down 6% for the day.

In other news, DIMAR has ruled out the possibility of a coalition with ND and/or PASOK.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 07, 2012, 07:25:24 am
Also, looks like I misunderstood the Greek Constitution- process doesn't start when Parliament's seated, it starts now. President Papoulias just gave an exploratory mandate to the ND leader. If he's going to get a Government, he's got 71.5 hours for the bribes to go through. :P


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on May 07, 2012, 07:27:13 am
149 seats for Pasok+ND...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 07, 2012, 07:29:22 am
Time for a few ANEL members to save the world.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 07, 2012, 08:08:08 am
The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 

That's truly frightening that the wonderful, peace creating Euro has allowed national socialists to enter a European parliament again.

Would it be banal of me to reflect that currencies, being abstractions, can't vote.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on May 07, 2012, 08:14:38 am
The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 

That's truly frightening that the wonderful, peace creating Euro has allowed national socialists to enter a European parliament again.

Would it be banal of me to reflect that currencies, being abstractions, can't vote.

That's true, but exactly by being abstractions they can influence society and politics much more than us, physical beings.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 07, 2012, 08:52:56 am
The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 

That's truly frightening that the wonderful, peace creating Euro has allowed national socialists to enter a European parliament again.

Would it be banal of me to reflect that currencies, being abstractions, can't vote.

That's true, but exactly by being abstractions they can influence society and politics much more than us, physical beings.

Yes, but so do many other things...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on May 07, 2012, 09:03:37 am
The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 

That's truly frightening that the wonderful, peace creating Euro has allowed national socialists to enter a European parliament again.

Would it be banal of me to reflect that currencies, being abstractions, can't vote.

That's true, but exactly by being abstractions they can influence society and politics much more than us, physical beings.

Yes, but so do many other things...

And which other boosted utterly-retarded votes in Greece?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 07, 2012, 09:14:54 am
The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 

That's truly frightening that the wonderful, peace creating Euro has allowed national socialists to enter a European parliament again.

Would it be banal of me to reflect that currencies, being abstractions, can't vote.

That's true, but exactly by being abstractions they can influence society and politics much more than us, physical beings.

Yes, but so do many other things...

And which other boosted utterly-retarded votes in Greece?

Can we at least go a few minutes without marking disparaging remarks about Greeks? I know some forumers seem to find that very difficult but hey, fairness and analysis and all that.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on May 07, 2012, 09:42:00 am
The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 

That's truly frightening that the wonderful, peace creating Euro has allowed national socialists to enter a European parliament again.

Would it be banal of me to reflect that currencies, being abstractions, can't vote.

That's true, but exactly by being abstractions they can influence society and politics much more than us, physical beings.

Yes, but so do many other things...

And which other boosted utterly-retarded votes in Greece?

Can we at least go a few minutes without marking disparaging remarks about Greeks? I know some forumers seem to find that very difficult but hey, fairness and analysis and all that.

Is there some especial reason why it's unfair to make disparaging remarks about Greeks who voted for Golden Dawn?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 07, 2012, 09:45:49 am
The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 

That's truly frightening that the wonderful, peace creating Euro has allowed national socialists to enter a European parliament again.

Would it be banal of me to reflect that currencies, being abstractions, can't vote.

That's true, but exactly by being abstractions they can influence society and politics much more than us, physical beings.

Yes, but so do many other things...

And which other boosted utterly-retarded votes in Greece?

Can we at least go a few minutes without marking disparaging remarks about Greeks? I know some forumers seem to find that very difficult but hey, fairness and analysis and all that.

Is there some especial reason why it's unfair to make disparaging remarks about Greeks who voted for Golden Dawn?

No. Don't be silly. But they aren't "Greeks", they are Greeks who have done something specific.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: © tweed on May 07, 2012, 09:48:45 am
the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.

Edit: link to nazi website removed.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 07, 2012, 09:51:11 am
the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.


Tweed, you have lost me now.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on May 07, 2012, 09:52:36 am
The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 

That's truly frightening that the wonderful, peace creating Euro has allowed national socialists to enter a European parliament again.

Would it be banal of me to reflect that currencies, being abstractions, can't vote.

That's true, but exactly by being abstractions they can influence society and politics much more than us, physical beings.

Yes, but so do many other things...

And which other boosted utterly-retarded votes in Greece?

Can we at least go a few minutes without marking disparaging remarks about Greeks? I know some forumers seem to find that very difficult but hey, fairness and analysis and all that.

Is there some especial reason why it's unfair to make disparaging remarks about Greeks who voted for Golden Dawn?

No. Don't be silly. But they aren't "Greeks", they are Greeks who have done something specific.

It was the votes that were described as utterly-retarded.


the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.



Nope. Not when there are better options available, which is very, very, very seldom NOT the case.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: © tweed on May 07, 2012, 09:53:30 am
the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.



Tweed, you have lost me now.

the point is to break out of the grip of the international financial institutions: THE crucial plank shared by the far right and Left (Syriza, KKE insofar as it has an actual platform, and GD).  then once that is done, the vacuum is created and we can slug it out on the streets.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on May 07, 2012, 09:54:57 am
the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.


Tweed, you have lost me now.

the point is to break out of the grip of the international financial institutions: THE crucial plank shared by the far right and Left (Syriza, KKE insofar as it has an actual platform, and GD).  then once that is done, the vacuum is created and we can slug it out on the streets.

The problem is I'm not confident in the chances at that point. The far right seems a lot more brutal.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 07, 2012, 09:56:27 am
@Nathan: It's not clear to whom he was referring with his [batmacumba] comments about 'retarded votes'. I hope it is the neonazis but I can't be sure, look at attitudes the likes of Franzl have constantly displayed in threads on this issue to see this.

the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.


Tweed, you have lost me now.

the point is to break out of the grip of the international financial institutions: THE crucial plank shared by the far right and Left (Syriza, KKE insofar as it has an actual platform, and GD).  then once that is done, the vacuum is created and we can slug it out on the streets.

Do I really need to explain why this is a terrible idea?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: © tweed on May 07, 2012, 10:01:09 am
there are reasons why it could or would be, but I would be interested to hear why you would think it so.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Grumpy Santa on May 07, 2012, 10:03:58 am
Can we at least go a few minutes without marking disparaging remarks about Greeks? I know some forumers seem to find that very difficult but hey, fairness and analysis and all that.

No.  My grandparents who hailed from Greece just had their burning desire to get the hell out of there asap when they were young, validated.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 07, 2012, 10:08:39 am
Can we at least go a few minutes without marking disparaging remarks about Greeks? I know some forumers seem to find that very difficult but hey, fairness and analysis and all that.

No.  My grandparents who hailed from Greece just had their burning desire to get the hell out of there asap when they were young, validated.


That was validated a long time ago. Though America should share some responsibility in that.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 07, 2012, 10:11:27 am
@Nathan: It's not clear to whom he was referring with his [batmacumba] comments about 'retarded votes'. I hope it is the neonazis but I can't be sure, look at attitudes the likes of Franzl have constantly displayed in threads on this issue to see this.

the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.



Tweed, you have lost me now.

the point is to break out of the grip of the international financial institutions: THE crucial plank shared by the far right and Left (Syriza, KKE insofar as it has an actual platform, and GD).  then once that is done, the vacuum is created and we can slug it out on the streets.

Do I really need to explain why this is a terrible idea?

Now I'm confused - What are you complaining about? I simply stated that I believe the Euro has caused a great deal of harm, especially evidenced by the fact that 7% of Greeks have been lured into voting for open national socialists. I find it ironic that the currency that was supposed to enhance freedom and peace in Europe has lead to consequences such as this.

Do you disagree with this?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 07, 2012, 10:13:37 am
@Nathan: It's not clear to whom he was referring with his [batmacumba] comments about 'retarded votes'. I hope it is the neonazis but I can't be sure, look at attitudes the likes of Franzl have constantly displayed in threads on this issue to see this.

the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.



Tweed, you have lost me now.

the point is to break out of the grip of the international financial institutions: THE crucial plank shared by the far right and Left (Syriza, KKE insofar as it has an actual platform, and GD).  then once that is done, the vacuum is created and we can slug it out on the streets.

Do I really need to explain why this is a terrible idea?

Now I'm confused - What are you complaining about? I simply stated that I believe the Euro has caused a great deal of harm, especially evidenced by the fact that 7% of Greeks have been lured into voting for open national socialists. I find it ironic that the currency that was supposed to enhance freedom and peace in Europe has lead to consequences such as this.

Do you disagree with this?

No. However, I would not say the problem has just been the euro.

But the tones of your remarks have had all the hallmarks of smugness and a sense of superiority. At least, to me.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 07, 2012, 10:17:12 am
The ANEL leader is refusing to meet with ND; says they are "traitors."

ND has met with SYRIZA, PASOK and DIMAR (though DIMAR has said it would not support an ND-PASOK government). ND not meeting with KKE or XA for obvious reasons.

SYRIZA has also ruled out a coalition with ND.

I think all that together shoots any possible formula to bits.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 07, 2012, 10:17:26 am
There's no point in supporting the anti-austerity far right when there are anti-austerity leftists to support, as in the case in Greece.

The euro is an obvious disaster [along with austerity as it has been enacted], but Greece will not leave it imminently, and Germany will not kick them out. No one seems to be discussing the ideal solution, which is that Germany and a few other neighboring countries leave the euro and form a separate D-M zone, leaving France to pursue its long-held ambitions of leading the euro. So it is an impasse.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 07, 2012, 10:19:27 am
Not to interrupt the discussion, but coalition news:

-Samaras says he'll probably conclude exploratory mandate tomorrow, success or failure
-ANEL refused to even enter talks with ND
-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 07, 2012, 10:20:52 am
But the tones of your remarks have had all the hallmarks of smugness and a sense of superiority. At least, to me.

Well to an extent. I feel confirmed in my belief that the Euro is destined to cause trouble. I

Sense of superiority to what or who though? The Greeks? No. While I do believe they made a very immature and dangerous decision yesterday (something px would certainly agree to), bad times are known to bring out the worst in voters. The average Greek voter, I believe I read in the Frankfurt Rundschau this morning, earns 30% less than he did two years ago. While you can argue about whether they were making too much to begin with..... on a personal level, it's certainly very devestating.



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: © tweed on May 07, 2012, 10:22:48 am
-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.

KKE wants actual power like they want the plague.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 07, 2012, 10:24:09 am
-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.

KKE wants actual power like they want the plague.

Indeed. Perpetual opposition is their entire raison d'être.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on May 07, 2012, 10:35:32 am
An anti-austerity coalition would have to include either one of the two 'system' parties or the Nazis, and one including the Nazis would have a majority of 2 seats, unless Tsipras thinks a few ND or PASOK MPs can be lured away. A couple dozen defections would keep the Nazis out but I'm not sure if anybody considers that at all likely or not.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 07, 2012, 10:37:26 am
The euro is an obvious disaster [along with austerity as it has been enacted], but Greece will not leave it imminently, and Germany will not kick them out. No one seems to be discussing the ideal solution, which is that Germany and a few other neighboring countries leave the euro and form a separate D-M zone, leaving France to pursue its long-held ambitions of leading the euro. So it is an impasse.
That's because its completely unrealistic. The Euro was and is first and foremost a political project and the German-French axis is still the core of the EU. No common European currency without France.

As a Scandinavian I can regret that because your idea would be appealing to Denmark and Sweden. You cant sell the Euro to Scandinavian voters, but a new D-Mark would be another matter.

Regarding Greece the chances of avoiding a second election looks slim (below 5%). Any thoughts about who would win a rematch?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 07, 2012, 10:48:31 am
Some finance ministry folks are now saying that the country could run out of money by the end of June if a new government isn't in place to negotiate another aid tranche and if government revenues fall below the forecast.

Also KKE is now saying that ND did reach out to them but KKE refused to meet. lol


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on May 07, 2012, 10:56:02 am
The guys on Something Awful argued that the ND's best hope is to encourage bribe individual members of ANEL to jump ship to ND and members of DIMAL to join PASOK.  It'd be a tough sell (who wants to climb onto a sinking ship?), but with the right kind of inducements, it doesn't seem too far out.

That's exactly what I was thinking.  (Also, what's so conservative about ANEL anyway?  Socon/anti-immigrant?)

An anti-austerity coalition would have to include either one of the two 'system' parties or the Nazis, and one including the Nazis would have a majority of 2 seats, unless Tsipras thinks a few ND or PASOK MPs can be lured away. A couple dozen defections would keep the Nazis out but I'm not sure if anybody considers that at all likely or not.

Perhaps everyone-but-Nazis with the Nazis giving confidence and supply?  (Although I imagine anything involving the Nazis will cause DIMAR or SYRIZA deputies to defect to PASOK, giving the grand coalition a majority).



My Greece, you are a clusterphuck!  Thanks for sinking the US economy, assholes! >:(


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 07, 2012, 11:05:43 am
It's not the same thing (reserve currency status), but it's not like the U.S. is in much better financial shape than Greece. Look at the American deficit.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on May 07, 2012, 11:09:09 am
It's not the same thing (reserve currency status), but it's not like the U.S. is in much better financial shape than Greece. Look at the American deficit.

Well of course, but it's not it's caused an international financial panic yet.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 07, 2012, 11:33:09 am
-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.

Serious stuff aside, a governing coalition gathering paleocommies, random far-lefties, populist right-wingers and literal nazis would be something quite epically hilarious to see.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on May 07, 2012, 11:47:14 am
@Nathan: It's not clear to whom he was referring with his [batmacumba] comments about 'retarded votes'. I hope it is the neonazis but I can't be sure, look at attitudes the likes of Franzl have constantly displayed in threads on this issue to see this.

the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.


Tweed, you have lost me now.

the point is to break out of the grip of the international financial institutions: THE crucial plank shared by the far right and Left (Syriza, KKE insofar as it has an actual platform, and GD).  then once that is done, the vacuum is created and we can slug it out on the streets.

Do I really need to explain why this is a terrible idea?

Mist, I really don't know what's not clear. You were the only to have misunderstood. My sentence does not contain the word 'Greek' at all. And if It was like you thought, it would be about turn out, which is obviously not the case.

Tweed, to use a metaphore which is dare to you marxists, it does matter the cat's colour. Not only this, but the puss may chase birds along with rats. And this may be worse than the rats.

EDIT. Opposite to other forumers, I do not bash the results at all. I find them very healthy, actually, despite the utterly-retarded branch.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 07, 2012, 12:27:53 pm
For the record, here's the final results with 100% in.

Turnout:         65.10%
Valid votes:    97.64%
Invalid votes:   1.80%
Blank votes:     0.55%


Final margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.07%

ND:  108    18.85%
SYRIZA:    52    16.78%
PASOK:    41    13.18%
ANEL:    33    10.60%
KKE:    26    8.48%
XA:    21    6.97%
DIMAR:    19    6.11%
(total below threshold):      (19.03%)
Greens:       2.93%
LAOS:       2.90%
DISY:       2.55%
DX!:       2.15%
Drasi:       1.80%
ANTARSYA:       1.19%
(parties <1%):       (5.43%)



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 07, 2012, 12:33:43 pm
A pity the greens didn't get in. :P

I'm positively surprised the turnout didn't dwindle that much. Unless 65% is unusually low for Greece, but I doubt it is.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on May 07, 2012, 12:39:57 pm
Samaras of ND hands back mandate to Prez saying that he could not form a government.  I guess it would be Syriza's turn.  I doubt they would come up with anything.  It seems another election is coming.  I am surprised at this turn of events.  I figured that Samaras would try for al least a couple of days.  It could be that he feels that any government would not last long and will further destroy the ND.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Antonis Samaras, who received a
mandate to form a government for Greece today, said he failed to
reach agreement with the five party leaders he spoke with and
handed back the mandate to President Karolos Papoulias.
     The mandate to form a government will now pass to the head
of the second-biggest parliamentary party arising from the
elections yesterday, Syriza.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 07, 2012, 12:41:39 pm
BREAKING FROM AP (if not entirely expected): ND leader Samaras announces he is unable to form a coalition government (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/greek-conservative-leader-samaras-says-unable-to-form-coalition-government/2012/05/07/gIQAJ50K8T_story.html).

So Syriza is up to bat tomorrow; let's see what they can do!

edit- my internet weirded out and it took me five minutes to make this post, so I got ninja'd by jaichind :(


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 07, 2012, 12:54:27 pm
In other news, here's an amusing bit of sensationalism from Forbes (http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamespoulos/2012/05/07/can-europe-survive-a-civil-war-in-greece/).

Highlights:

Quote
With the Second Reich destroyed, what was Germany? What was it for? These existential questions are the same that face Greece, and the fresh electoral triumph of its far-left and far-right parties repeats the pattern of competing answers first put on display in ’20s and ’30s Germany. ...

... The tinderbox in Greece is devilishly simple: the military. Unlike most countries in Europe, Greece has an outsized military budget, and the armed forces to match... Indeed, the real issue is that a civil war now appears far more likely in Greece than a war of aggression. ...

... There is only France. Can anyone envision Hollande sending the tricolor to Athens — even in the name of left solidarity?

The state of play in Europe is straightforward. Greece is very likely to become a failed state. Over the next five years, civil war is probable.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: © tweed on May 07, 2012, 12:58:07 pm
lol at the Hollande bit.  still nice to see some panic at the outer reaches of the business press.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 07, 2012, 12:59:48 pm
Who do you think will gain from a new election? Establishment or new parties?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on May 07, 2012, 01:05:47 pm
-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.

Serious stuff aside, a governing coalition gathering paleocommies, random far-lefties, populist right-wingers and literal nazis would be something quite epically hilarious to see.

The "everyone not in favor of austerity" coalition would be the most tragicomic government ever created.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 07, 2012, 01:06:59 pm
A pity the greens didn't get in. :P

I'm positively surprised the turnout didn't dwindle that much. Unless 65% is unusually low for Greece, but I doubt it is.

It is, actually. Lowest Greek turnout for legislative elections in modern times. Voting is mandatory in Greece, and although there are no penalties enforced against non-voters, I think that still boosts participation somewhat. Greek turnout has historically been stable at around 80% (even through the 89-89-90 election trio). Over the two decades it's fallen some, usually been around 75%. 2009 was the lowest turnout since the dictatorship at 'only' 71%.

Who do you think will gain from a new election? Establishment or new parties?

I don't see how the establishment could benefit from all of this, though I suppose anything is possible.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 07, 2012, 01:12:09 pm
A pity the greens didn't get in. :P

I'm positively surprised the turnout didn't dwindle that much. Unless 65% is unusually low for Greece, but I doubt it is.

It is, actually. Lowest Greek turnout for legislative elections in modern times. Voting is mandatory in Greece, and although there are no penalties enforced against non-voters, I think that still boosts participation somewhat. Greek turnout has historically been stable at around 80% (even through the 89-89-90 election trio). Over the two decades it's fallen some, usually been around 75%. 2009 was the lowest turnout since the dictatorship at 'only' 71%.

Ah, I see. Well, I still think it could have been worse.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on May 07, 2012, 01:14:56 pm
20% for parties below threshold - and it didn't even fulfill the supposed goal of "keeping Nazis out."  Can we please abolish such things?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 07, 2012, 01:19:56 pm
20% for parties below threshold - and it didn't even fulfill the supposed goal of "keeping Nazis out."  Can we please abolish such things?
The parties between 1-3% where 3 centre-right parties, 1 green party, 1 xenophobic right wing populist party and 1 trotskyist party. So 4 "good" and 2 "bad" ones.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 07, 2012, 02:43:01 pm
Results in the Ikarian Soviet Republic:

KKE 41%
Syriza 20%
everybody else below 10

And some outfit called Koinoniki Symfonia that polled just under 1% nationally topped the poll in the small dodecanese island municipality of Astypalaia.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 07, 2012, 03:01:47 pm
Regarding the seat distribution: Unlike the 74-85 and 93-2000 system, it's only the distribution down to the constituencies that is beyond complex. The national figures are perfectly proportional (largest remainder method) apart from the threshold and the 50 (formerly 40) seat bonus.
Any system that distributes national seat totals down to constituencies with fixed numbers of seats (and they exist in a number of European countries; Italy, Norway, Denmark IIRC, probably more) ends up forced to distribute some of these seats essentially at random, esp. if the constituencies vary widely in size. (Germany even manages to distribute some seats essentially at random despite not fixing the number of seats per constituency!) Add the problem of the majority bonus and the nature of this election, and very strange things were always certain to happen.
Well, I suppose it's good to know for an MP how he got elected. ;D


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Vosem on May 07, 2012, 03:09:11 pm

And some outfit called Koinoniki Symfonia that polled just under 1% nationally topped the poll in the small dodecanese island municipality of Astypalaia.


Erm, no they didn't -- it seems they got only 1 vote there: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2012/may/06/greece-elections-results-map?newsfeed=true


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 07, 2012, 03:46:23 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=E4AXJx3IzdY (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=E4AXJx3IzdY)

Well... that was, ehm, interesting.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 07, 2012, 03:57:01 pm
If we have elections next month then the constituencies will change based on the 2011 census.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on May 07, 2012, 04:46:14 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=E4AXJx3IzdY (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=E4AXJx3IzdY)

Well... that was, ehm, interesting.

Voters are idiots retards who should be shot, mk 999,999,999.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on May 07, 2012, 05:15:49 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=E4AXJx3IzdY (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=E4AXJx3IzdY)

Well... that was, ehm, interesting.

Just fascinating. I want to see a KKE interview to really feel like I'm being transported back to the 30's, though.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Great Again: Roy Moore's Handmaid's Tale on May 07, 2012, 05:34:22 pm
Boy, Greece is such a mess.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 07, 2012, 05:35:34 pm
Tsipras scheduled to officially get his exploratory mandate at 2PM tomorrow. Odds he'll make it to Wednesday before giving up?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 07, 2012, 08:06:05 pm
I find it ironic that the currency that was supposed to enhance freedom and peace in Europe has lead to consequences such as this.

The problem is than every currency is run according to a policy (it's inevitable, even laissez-faire is a policy) and than the policies chosen were beneficial to Germany and North Europe while being detrimental to Southern Europe and France (and UK if it joined, but they saw it wouldn't be good for them).

Sure, from the German view (whose economy is technology-based), Euro is great, but, from countries who aren't beneficing from it (a stong currency manifactural-based economies), it leads to deindustrialisation and the political consequences that goes with that.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Vosem on May 07, 2012, 08:26:01 pm
So, it seems logical to just keep using this thread for the June election, since it's Greece 2012?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Foucaulf on May 07, 2012, 08:33:31 pm
Tsipras scheduled to officially get his exploratory mandate at 2PM tomorrow. Odds he'll make it to Wednesday before giving up?

(This definitely overcomplicates things, but I'm in an overcomplicating mood.)

No party has agreed to work with ND (except PASOK, but all they referred to is a "government of national unity"). Two parties have not definitively rejected cooperation with SYRIZA: PASOK and DIMAR. Let's say they cooperate and get 112 seats.

SYRIZA will still need cooperation from right-wing ANEL and Stalinist KKE. That will not happen. But SYRIZA can take the whole three days, and by the end blame those two parties for not cooperating. All this is to suck votes from KKE and ANEL sympathizers in the following election so they edge over ND.

I would say SYRIZA is most eager for an election right now. They can gain votes from new KKE voters who realizes that their votes can make more of a difference with SYRIZA, as well as votes from all those parties not in parliament. There's around 8-9% of votes for anti-austerity parties who did not get into parliament ripe for the picking.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on May 07, 2012, 09:04:39 pm
SYRIZA will still need cooperation from right-wing ANEL and Stalinist KKE. That will not happen. But SYRIZA can take the whole three days, and by the end blame those two parties for not cooperating. All this is to suck votes from KKE and ANEL sympathizers in the following election so they edge over ND.

Not cooperating in forming a presumably pro-austerity coalition with PASOK and DIMAR? After all they're conflicting with SYRIZA on that, so either one has to have an enormous Damascene conversion if they're to form just that coalition, and if it's 1) PASOK & DIMAR that have had that conversion they may as well force another election to unite the left behind them, or 2) SYRIZA that's done it, then if anything SYRIZA will be losing votes to KKE, and possibly ANEL, for that betrayal and will receive no sympathy for not being able to form a coalition with the two parties who stuck to their principles.

I think SYRIZA will naturally gain votes from elsewhere, just by being hot on the heels of New Democracy - and the anti-austerity voters will have seen that (and recognise it as their best hope).

   


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 07, 2012, 10:53:10 pm
Tsipras scheduled to officially get his exploratory mandate at 2PM tomorrow. Odds he'll make it to Wednesday before giving up?

(This definitely overcomplicates things, but I'm in an overcomplicating mood.)

No party has agreed to work with ND (except PASOK, but all they referred to is a "government of national unity"). Two parties have not definitively rejected cooperation with SYRIZA: PASOK and DIMAR. Let's say they cooperate and get 112 seats.

SYRIZA will still need cooperation from right-wing ANEL and Stalinist KKE. That will not happen. But SYRIZA can take the whole three days, and by the end blame those two parties for not cooperating. All this is to suck votes from KKE and ANEL sympathizers in the following election so they edge over ND.

I would say SYRIZA is most eager for an election right now. They can gain votes from new KKE voters who realizes that their votes can make more of a difference with SYRIZA, as well as votes from all those parties not in parliament. There's around 8-9% of votes for anti-austerity parties who did not get into parliament ripe for the picking.

SYRIZA will still need cooperation from right-wing ANEL and Stalinist KKE. That will not happen. But SYRIZA can take the whole three days, and by the end blame those two parties for not cooperating. All this is to suck votes from KKE and ANEL sympathizers in the following election so they edge over ND.

Not cooperating in forming a presumably pro-austerity coalition with PASOK and DIMAR? After all they're conflicting with SYRIZA on that, so either one has to have an enormous Damascene conversion if they're to form just that coalition, and if it's 1) PASOK & DIMAR that have had that conversion they may as well force another election to unite the left behind them, or 2) SYRIZA that's done it, then if anything SYRIZA will be losing votes to KKE, and possibly ANEL, for that betrayal and will receive no sympathy for not being able to form a coalition with the two parties who stuck to their principles.

I think SYRIZA will naturally gain votes from elsewhere, just by being hot on the heels of New Democracy - and the anti-austerity voters will have seen that (and recognise it as their best hope).

   


Good analysis from the both of you, but I doubt anyone is going to be losing votes to the Stalinists under any circumstance. Just not how that party operates.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: © tweed on May 08, 2012, 10:15:12 am
bourgeois press fail: CNBC refers to Tsipras as 'Greek Communist leader'

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47323787


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on May 08, 2012, 11:16:03 am
Ive noticed the North American press is quite biased in their coverage European elections.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 08, 2012, 11:22:31 am
Ive noticed the North American press is quite biased in their coverage European elections.

You have only noticed this now?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: © tweed on May 08, 2012, 11:23:28 am
Ive noticed the North American press is quite biased in their coverage European elections.

You have only noticed this now?

perhaps there is a bit of a slant in Israel-Palestine too.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Vosem on May 08, 2012, 03:08:52 pm
Ive noticed the North American press is quite biased in their coverage European elections.

It sucks, but at least they're biased for the good guys...



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on May 08, 2012, 03:37:49 pm
Ive noticed the North American press is quite biased in their coverage European elections.

It sucks, but at least they're biased for the good guys...

'Good' guys? Surely you jest.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 08, 2012, 04:58:23 pm
Well KKE has refused to meet with SYRIZA as well. Tsipras has laid out a schedule of meetings that take him through Thursday so I guess we'll have to wait until then for him to officially give up. He's also meeting with the Greens and another minor leftist party that missed the threshold (perhaps to boost their profile for the next election?) and with "business and trade union leaders" (just for kicks I guess? to make him seem more Prime Ministerial?)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Nhoj on May 08, 2012, 05:12:45 pm
Well KKE has refused to meet with SYRIZA as well. Tsipras has laid out a schedule of meetings that take him through Thursday so I guess we'll have to wait until then for him to officially give up. He's also meeting with the Greens and another minor leftist party that missed the threshold (perhaps to boost their profile for the next election?) and with "business and trade union leaders" (just for kicks I guess? to make him seem more Prime Ministerial?)
Is it possible hes trying to get them to run on a Joint list with syriza for june? iIm not sure if joint lists are allowed or not]


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 08, 2012, 06:03:37 pm
He is just building bridges for next month's election. Tsipras never seriously intended to form a government.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 08, 2012, 06:58:09 pm
What will Pasok do, when its their turn (as third largest party) to try to form a government? Just say outright its impossible, or what do you think?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 08, 2012, 07:48:47 pm
bourgeois press fail: CNBC refers to Tsipras as 'Greek Communist leader'

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47323787
Forbes referred to him as "bailout-hater."  The article's title was "Bailout-Hater Tsipras Now Trying to Form Government in Greece." (they could've at least said something more professional like "Bailout Opponent" or "Anti-Bailout Leftist.")  It also called his rhetoric "violent."  And of course, the last paragraph was all about how markets are reacting negatively. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 08, 2012, 07:51:31 pm
bourgeois press fail: CNBC refers to Tsipras as 'Greek Communist leader'

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47323787
Forbes referred to him as "bailout-hater."  The article's title was "Bailout-Hater Tsipras Now Trying to Form Government in Greece." (they could've at least said something more professional like "Bailout Opponent" or "Anti-Bailout Leftist.")  It also called his rhetoric "violent."  And of course, the last paragraph was all about how markets are reacting negatively. 

The best i've seen him described by the clueless English-language press is "far-left", which is pushing it.

Why can international press never cover other country's elections properly!?!?!?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 09, 2012, 01:22:51 am
Tsipras isn't a bailout opponent. He is welcoming the funds but is opposed to the austerity measures and reforms that come attached with them.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 09, 2012, 01:31:45 am
If somehow funds are cut off from Greece yet the country remains on the euro still, the situation might still be salvaged. As I understand it, popular support for remaining on the euro remains much higher than popular support for austerity. If Greeks saw for a brief time what life is like without external funding, public opinion may change. Let us say government services are shut down, it is like the strikes in the UK in 1974 or 1979. At the same time, Germany must give Greece more time to fulfill its obligations, as well as stimulate its own economy. Finally, the ECB must play a role in protecting financial stability. This goes beyond Greece, the fate of 100 million or more across the continent are directly impacted, and the entire world is indirectly impacted.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 09, 2012, 04:29:44 am
If somehow funds are cut off from Greece yet the country remains on the euro still, the situation might still be salvaged. As I understand it, popular support for remaining on the euro remains much higher than popular support for austerity. If Greeks saw for a brief time what life is like without external funding, public opinion may change. Let us say government services are shut down, it is like the strikes in the UK in 1974 or 1979. At the same time, Germany must give Greece more time to fulfill its obligations, as well as stimulate its own economy.
Since Greek Euro membership is the main problem now, thats not a good solution.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on May 09, 2012, 08:17:06 am
If somehow funds are cut off from Greece yet the country remains on the euro still, the situation might still be salvaged. As I understand it, popular support for remaining on the euro remains much higher than popular support for austerity. If Greeks saw for a brief time what life is like without external funding, public opinion may change. Let us say government services are shut down, it is like the strikes in the UK in 1974 or 1979. At the same time, Germany must give Greece more time to fulfill its obligations, as well as stimulate its own economy.
Since Greek Euro membership is the main problem now, thats not a good solution.

At the same time,they can't quit the Euro without quitting the EU.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 09, 2012, 10:15:38 am
He is just building bridges for next month's election. Tsipras never seriously intended to form a government.
It looks to me that he's being as serious as you can be about things like that when you know beforehand that you don't, actually, stand a chance - presumably mostly because he thinks that's what the voters expect from him and he wants to win next month's elections. So, basically, what you said. :)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 09, 2012, 10:19:39 am

And some outfit called Koinoniki Symfonia that polled just under 1% nationally topped the poll in the small dodecanese island municipality of Astypalaia.


Erm, no they didn't -- it seems they got only 1 vote there: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2012/may/06/greece-elections-results-map?newsfeed=true
Indeed, I actually named the wrong island. Agathonissi, not Astypalaia. (Also, I belatedly realized that Koinoniki Symfonia is, of course, the PASOK splinter Koisy. And sure enough, checked it and one of their eight MPs was from Dodecanese (and presumably from Agathonissi?)
Agathonissi is also the northernmost island in the Dodecanese.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 09, 2012, 10:23:09 am
The Greens lost votes in their earlier Attic strongholds, gained elsewhere esp. in the islands (where they'd done relatively well for rural Greece even before). KKE also lost in a few places esp. in Attica. Tactical support for Syriza?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 09, 2012, 11:50:51 am
I haven't found the whole thing, but I've found a law changing part of the election procedure, and suddenly why the seat distribution is so bizarre is making a lot more sense.

The process appears to be - roughly - like this:

1) Calculate the number of seats nationally for all the parties.
2) Award the one-seater district's seats on an fptp basis (provided the fptp winner has crossed the national threshold). Award seats in multi-member seats according to an electoral quota: in a three-seater, award a seat to any party with over a third of the vote etc. This is of the entire valid vote, not the after-threshold vote. Obviously a sizable number of seats remain unallocated - most of them with an election result like this one.
3) Repeat procedure, for votes not yet "used" (this includes all losers in single-seaters, obviously), at the periphery (region) level. Attribute any seats won this way back to nomoi with open seats by a process I haven't found. The logic here is that if Party A has some elevated non-majoritarian support in Region B which consists only of fairly small constituencies, it should still have a good chance of electing a regional MP.
4) Calculate the number of seats parties are still due, still not including the fifty seat bonus, allocate 12 of them (which twelve? I don't know) to the national replacement lists and the remainder to nomoi that still have seats open, by whatever process.
5) You should still be left with fifty nomoi seats left open. Those become the topup seats.

And suddenly we at least understand the difference between
Imathia ND 21%, 0 seats out of 4
Pieria ND 27%, 3 seats out of 4.

The other parties' slightly lower shares in Pieria (or in the case of PASOK, who polled 16% in both, perhaps Imathia's slightly larger size or somesuch), led to all the seats in Imathia and just one (or two, ND getting one) of those in Pieria being filled in steps three and four. Hence, two Pierian topup seats for ND.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 09, 2012, 12:14:24 pm
Well KKE has refused to meet with SYRIZA as well. Tsipras has laid out a schedule of meetings that take him through Thursday so I guess we'll have to wait until then for him to officially give up. He's also meeting with the Greens and another minor leftist party that missed the threshold (perhaps to boost their profile for the next election?) and with "business and trade union leaders" (just for kicks I guess? to make him seem more Prime Ministerial?)
Is it possible hes trying to get them to run on a Joint list with syriza for june? iIm not sure if joint lists are allowed or not]

SYRIZA is itself a joint list of a number of left-wing parties, so that would make sense.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 09, 2012, 02:42:50 pm
The Greens lost votes in their earlier Attic strongholds, gained elsewhere esp. in the islands (where they'd done relatively well for rural Greece even before). KKE also lost in a few places esp. in Attica. Tactical support for Syriza?

Quite possibly; the places where Greens and Commies lost votes are all pretty high up on the list of districts where Syriza had the greatest increase in vote share, so there certainly appears to be a correlation at first glance.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 09, 2012, 04:38:20 pm
I doubt it, no one expected SYRIZA to do so well and KKE voters wouldn't vote for a non-communist party under any circumstances.  A perfect example of this is how the labor unions refused to meet with Tsipras (the labor unions are pretty much run by KKE with a little bit of PASOK, which is why KKE always gets appr. 8%, the labor union vote).

SYRIZA had the support of the Democratic Left and ANEL (Kammenos) which would have given them 52+19+33=104 seats, so they could have governed with an additional 17 votes if at least 60 MPs from other parties didn't vote.  It would have been really difficult to govern however if ND had 108 MPs, so they asked Venizelos and Samaras to publicly declare they are against the bailout.

SYRIZA is by far the most socially liberal party in Greece, so I'm surprised they did so well, but I guess that also explains why they did so well in urban centers and the islands.

Venizelos tomorrow will ask Kouvelis (Democratic Left) to become the Prime Minister in a PASOK-ND-Democratic Left government and when he refuses in the next elections SYRIZA will win first place easily while PASOK will be in danger of not even getting 3%.  ND will also lose some votes to ANEL and perhaps to the new alliance between DISY and Drasi.  It will be interesting to see how the traditional right-wing voters of DISY react to the fact that one of the leaders of Drasi is gay activist Vallianatos.

I also have a feeling that KKE will lose votes to SYRIZA since many left wing voters are beginning to realize what a joke the communist party is.  What's interesting is that even if SYRIZA is the first party they will not get the 50-seat bonus because they are a coalition of 16 smaller parties, and coalitions are not allowed to get the bonus.  There is some talk however that the SYRIZA parties might unite into one in order to form a government.

It will be interesting to see how people react to Golden Dawn.  A lot of their voters didn't realize what they were dealing with since they media never gave them the chance to speak before the elections (huge mistake) and now that they're learning more about them, a lot of older voters are shocked.  So there's a good chance that their percentage will drop.



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on May 09, 2012, 04:50:28 pm
What's interesting is that even if SYRIZA is the first party they will not get the 50-seat bonus because they are a coalition of 16 smaller parties, and coalitions are not allowed to get the bonus.  There is some talk however that the SYRIZA parties might unite into one in order to form a government.

Thanks for that, I was unaware of this obstacle.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 09, 2012, 04:52:48 pm
Interesting post. I doubt Pasok will fail that much. They have some core supporters (7-8%).

Didnt know about Syiza not getting the bonus. They simpy have to unite, otherwise its (even more)ridiculous. But if they dont, who gets the bonus? The second party could be ND again, would they get it then?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Zuza on May 09, 2012, 05:16:23 pm
Didnt know about Syiza not getting the bonus. They simpy have to unite, otherwise its (even more)ridiculous.
It probably will be very hard to unite all 13 (according to Wikipedia) parties, from social democrats to maoists and trotskyists, into one in such a short time...

Maybe Synaspismos will try to run independently?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 09, 2012, 05:37:52 pm
I don't know where you got that info from but I'm 99.9% sure Syriza in first place would still get the bonus.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 09, 2012, 05:55:10 pm
I don't know where you got that info from but I'm 99.9% sure Syriza in first place would still get the bonus.

Indeed. This part of the law is blatantly unconstitutional and our supreme court has already endorsed a VERY lax enforcement of the law.
Essentially a signed statement by a party's leader declaring that it's a single party and not a coalition is enough.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 09, 2012, 06:29:45 pm
Interesting post. I doubt Pasok will fail that much. They have some core supporters (7-8%).

Who? It's not as though the Panhellenic Socialist Movement actually stands for anything.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on May 09, 2012, 06:31:50 pm
Remember when somebody confused Gael L'Hermine for the PASOK leader? Those were cool days. I'd wager that this Mr. L'Hermine could have done better than the fat retard.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 09, 2012, 06:48:33 pm
Interesting post. I doubt Pasok will fail that much. They have some core supporters (7-8%).

Who? It's not as though the Panhellenic Socialist Movement actually stands for anything.

A few posts back someone said PASOK controls some of the unions, so they're probably a key component of whatever core base the party may have.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 09, 2012, 07:34:58 pm
Interesting post. I doubt Pasok will fail that much. They have some core supporters (7-8%).

Didnt know about Syiza not getting the bonus. They simpy have to unite, otherwise its (even more)ridiculous. But if they dont, who gets the bonus? The second party could be ND again, would they get it then?

No one does.  All 300 seats are allocated based on percentage of votes to parties with more than 3%.
PASOK does have some power with the unions, but it's mostly KKE, which is where KKE gets most of their votes.
PASOK has no reason to exist now that SYRIZA is the "big" leftist" party, since SYRIZA is to the left of PASOK.  


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 09, 2012, 07:51:19 pm
Didnt know about Syiza not getting the bonus. They simpy have to unite, otherwise its (even more)ridiculous.
It probably will be very hard to unite all 13 (according to Wikipedia) parties, from social democrats to maoists and trotskyists, into one in such a short time...

Maybe Synaspismos will try to run independently?

No, they won't run independently.  One of SYRIZA's greatest assets is Manolis Glezos, the symbol of Greece's resistance during the Nazi occupation, who is a member the Active Citizens, one of the 13 parties that form the coalition.  A lot of older Greeks are really hesitant to vote for a leftist party, but Glezos' presence probably played a big role in SYRIZA getting such a high percentage.
I think it's more likely they will unite and change their name.

But there are some rumors that Venizelos will ask Kouvelis to form his own government without any input from PASOK or ND.  If Kouvelis and ND accept the offer, it will be a really interesting development because isn't exactly against the bailout.
This is more of an act of desparation by Venizelos who knows PASOK will be destroyed if the elections take place next month.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Zuza on May 09, 2012, 08:31:43 pm
PASOK has no reason to exist now that SYRIZA is the "big" leftist" party, since SYRIZA is to the left of PASOK.  

Isn't SYRIZA too left for ex-PASOK voters? I suppose most of them in future will vote for PASOK or DIMAR rather than SYRIZA.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 09, 2012, 09:01:03 pm
Most PASOK or ND voters don't vote based on ideology, so with PASOK losing power they will have to find a new home.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 10, 2012, 01:28:56 am
The fate of Greece lies in the hands of Fotis Kouvelis. It would be better for the euro not to have another election, as it could result in Syriza gaining even more seats.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 10, 2012, 03:55:33 pm
The first poll after the elections has SYRIZA on top:

http://www.alphatv.gr/getattachment/Microsites/Ekloges-2012/Polls/20-04-2012/Δημοσκοπηση-Alpha-10-05-12.pdf.aspx

SYRIZA 27.7
ND 20.3
PASOK 12.6
ANEL 10.2
KKE 7
Golden Dawn 5.7
DIMAR 4.9

Tsipras as the VP of the European Left wrote to Barroso, the EU Commission and the Eurogroup suggesting that the EU re-examines its current policies, which are putting in danger the future of all europeans.

In the meantime PASOK and DIMAR reached an agreement to form a government for 2 years with Kouvelis being the PM, and Venizelos is planning to request the support of all democratic parties (as he described them) meaning SYRIZA and ND.  ND will most definitely accept, but SYRIZA insists that Greece doesn't accept the bailout.  ANEL, which Venizelos apparently doesn't consider a democratic party for some reason, has already said they will only join a coalition if PASOK and ND change their position on the bailout.

Kouvelis knows that forming a government with the support of PASOK and ND only (without the support of SYRIZA) would be political suicide so there's still a lot of uncertainty.
If a government isn't formed within 3 days, the country's President (Papoulias) will have to invite the leaders of all 7 parliamentary groups, which means that he will have to shake hands with the leader of Golden Dawn.  Papoulias fought during WWII and has no intention to meet with the Golden Dawn leader, so he will probably push for a solution within the next 3 days.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 10, 2012, 04:01:37 pm
Yeah, I don't see why Kouvelis would support such a government unless significant policy changes are agreed upon (which of course, is very unlikely).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: RodPresident on May 10, 2012, 04:03:56 pm
I think that we can have interesting implications in next elections. Bakoyannis can try to create a coalition with other minor pro-European liberal parties in order to become viable, although I think that she would veto Samaras as PM. Social Agreement can join SYRIZA, DIMAR or even Greens to enter parliament. LAOS will collapse and its remains will go to ANEL. Tsipras will be under hard vetting until June.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 10, 2012, 04:37:35 pm
That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 10, 2012, 04:42:10 pm
The more I look at it the more I think the best thing would be a new election which results in SYRIZA as the largest party and hopefully able to form government with ANEL and DIMAR. Then finally they will most likely be kicked out of the EMU, which quite franly is what both Greece and the EU needs. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 10, 2012, 04:47:04 pm
That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 10, 2012, 04:49:39 pm
That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16

So there'd basicly be two possibilities?

Pure anti-austerity: SYRIZA+ANEL+DIMAR (169 seats)

Pure left-wing: SYRIZA+PASOK+DIMAR (175 seats)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on May 10, 2012, 05:14:02 pm
Where do ANEL and DIMAR stand on Greece staying in the Eurozone?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 10, 2012, 05:18:30 pm
Venizelos meeting with ND in the morning. If Kouvelis is truly as supportive as it sounds, looks like we might actually see a government form tomorrow.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 10, 2012, 05:19:09 pm
They both want to remain in the Eurozone, however the ANEL leader claims that the current EU leaders are corrupt, while Kouvelis would like to see the EU integrate even more (publish eurobonds, have a common foreign and economic policy etc.).
SYRIZA btw is also in favor of remaining in the Eurozone but they claim that different policy is required due to Greece being in a recession for 5 years.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 10, 2012, 05:34:01 pm
That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16

So there'd basicly be two possibilities?

Pure anti-austerity: SYRIZA+ANEL+DIMAR (169 seats)

Pure left-wing: SYRIZA+PASOK+DIMAR (175 seats)
In theory (and I know its only in theory) there would also be pure left of center option: SYRIZA + DIMAR + KKE = 161. The Communists would be in a dilemma, since there would actually be a majority for creating a Socialist society (of some sorts). If they kept up their "no responsibility for us" act they would have some explaining to do to their voters.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: RodPresident on May 10, 2012, 05:42:05 pm
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_09/05/2012_441398
Looks that Samaras is hated even by right-wingers. A Manos-Bakoyannis alliance can generate even more collapse in ND voting, even helping pro-austherity prospects.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 10, 2012, 06:00:08 pm
If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: LastVoter on May 10, 2012, 06:02:25 pm
If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.
Take the advice from the Russians, they have experience with this sort of thing :)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Zuza on May 10, 2012, 06:06:10 pm
That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16

So there'd basicly be two possibilities?

Pure anti-austerity: SYRIZA+ANEL+DIMAR (169 seats)

Pure left-wing: SYRIZA+PASOK+DIMAR (175 seats)
In theory (and I know its only in theory) there would also be pure left of center option: SYRIZA + DIMAR + KKE = 161. The Communists would be in a dilemma, since there would actually be a majority for creating a Socialist society (of some sorts). If they kept up their "no responsibility for us" act they would have some explaining to do to their voters.

I doubt that SYRIZA and especially DIMAR considered as socialist parties in KKE eyes (and probably in eyes of most KKE voters?). Even stalinists and trotskyists hate each other, not to mention the non-Marxist socialists.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 10, 2012, 06:07:45 pm
Wait: So what is the chance that there may actually be a plausible government in the making? Or are we still convinced that there are going to be new elections?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 10, 2012, 06:17:46 pm
Sounds like either Venizelos totally capitulated, or Kouvelis just wants to be PM so badly that he's willing to sacrifice all principles (and his party's fortunes) so he can be PM for even just 2 years (or less, depending on how long the government actually lasts).  If anything, it sounds like it's probably the later (do really think PASOK and ND would backtrack on all the austerity, which he set as a condition for joining?)  If I were Greek and a DIMAR voter (which I ideologically would be, though I might have tactically voted for SYRIZA), I'd be EXTREMELY pissed off right now.  


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 10, 2012, 06:26:44 pm
If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 10, 2012, 06:37:45 pm
If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.
What you are describing clearly is a coup.

Also the EU would never approve of this.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 10, 2012, 06:40:05 pm
If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.
What you are describing clearly is a coup.

EU santioned anti-democracy!? Well, i'm shocked.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 10, 2012, 06:41:44 pm
If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.
What you are describing clearly is a coup.

No because this procedure is laid out in our constitution. It can be retroactively approved by the parliament if it's not in session at the time it happens.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 10, 2012, 06:54:50 pm
The more I look at it the more I think the best thing would be a new election which results in SYRIZA as the largest party and hopefully able to form government with ANEL and DIMAR. Then finally they will most likely be kicked out of the EMU hopefully force the EU to take a different direction, establish EuroBond and real economic solidarity between countries, which quite franly is what both Greece and the EU needs. 

Corrected.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 10, 2012, 07:07:15 pm
If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.
What you are describing clearly is a coup.

No because this procedure is laid out in our constitution. It can be retroactively approved by the parliament if it's not in session at the time it happens.

Greece is not "under siege" and any attempt to apply emergency procedures designed for a war situation to prevent a certain type of government from being established is a coup.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 10, 2012, 07:19:04 pm
That's called a coup. And, probably, under the circumstances, it would be the ideal pre-text for kicking Greece out of the EU in the nastiest manner imaginable. I am pretty sure, the Germans will take the opportunity to do it.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 10, 2012, 07:23:17 pm
If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.
What you are describing clearly is a coup.

No because this procedure is laid out in our constitution. It can be retroactively approved by the parliament if it's not in session at the time it happens.

Greece is not "under siege" and any attempt to apply emergency procedures designed for a war situation to prevent a certain type of government from being established is a coup.

^ This.

It's not good to have the powers that be throwing a hissy fit and ignore the will of the electorate just because they don't like how they voted.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 10, 2012, 08:09:52 pm
If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.
What you are describing clearly is a coup.

No because this procedure is laid out in our constitution. It can be retroactively approved by the parliament if it's not in session at the time it happens.

Articles 44 and 48 allow for Parliament to be temporarily bypassed "under extraordinary circumstances of an urgent and unforeseeable need" and in "case of war... or an imminent threat against national security, as well as in case of an armed coup aiming to overthrow the democratic regime" respectively, (the latter only when it's "objectively impossible" to convene Parliament in time) but both can only be declared by the President at the Cabinet's initiative. No mechanism for military involvement. The available time limit is also incredibly limited, with Article 48 requiring Parliamentary consent within fifteen days, and Article 44 requires decrees to be submitted for Parliament's approval within forty days.

The military stepping in directly would certainly be unconstitutional; the only legal "option" to prevent a Syriza government would involve the outgoing Cabinet declaring a national emergency under Article 44 Paragraph 1 just before they were officially replaced, and then have Papoulias postpone the commencement of Parliament for a month under Article 40 Paragraph 2&3 so the new anti-austerity cabinet couldn't take office. And even then, after that month PASOK/ND would be absolutely hated, with the appearance of illegitimately clinging to power, and the electoral repercussions would be disastrous. But to do it any other way would probably be treason.

(Unless I'm overlooking something or the translation I found of the Greek Constitution is bad, anyway)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 11, 2012, 01:32:35 am
The more I look at it the more I think the best thing would be a new election which results in SYRIZA as the largest party and hopefully able to form government with ANEL and DIMAR. Then finally they will most likely be kicked out of the EMU hopefully force the EU to take a different direction, establish EuroBond and real economic solidarity between countries, which quite franly is what both Greece and the EU needs. 

Corrected.

Ah yes I'm sure you might be right that a single protest election in Greece might get the European establishment revaluate everything they have done to handle the crisis so far and make a U-turn.  (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mpqiq-FHDV4)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 11, 2012, 01:59:25 am
If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.
What you are describing clearly is a coup.

No because this procedure is laid out in our constitution. It can be retroactively approved by the parliament if it's not in session at the time it happens.

Greece is not "under siege" and any attempt to apply emergency procedures designed for a war situation to prevent a certain type of government from being established is a coup.

I'm not saying it will happen but the mere fact that such a possibility is not anymore casually dismissed in a conversation shows at least that we are indeed in a situation that approaches a national emergency.
And of course if this where ever to happen there would be a provocation first, not unlike the December 2008 riots.

That's called a coup. And, probably, under the circumstances, it would be the ideal pre-text for kicking Greece out of the EU in the nastiest manner imaginable. I am pretty sure, the Germans will take the opportunity to do it.

Not if they are in the loop. Frankly, Germany has shown till now very little regard to the democratic process of the EU and its members.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 11, 2012, 02:22:17 am
Of course, just playing devil's advocate here, whatever signals of tacit approval that potentially get sent in favor of a coup-if-necessary could just be the Troika hedging their bets. If Greece's military becomes "needed" the austerity deal will be effectively unsalvageable anyway, so it'd be Germany's perfect excuse to kick Greece out of the Eurozone and wash their hands of everything.     


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: 🍁 Hatman on May 11, 2012, 02:30:55 am
What's the point of asking PASOK to try and form a government? Theoretically since ND and SYRIZA couldn't do it, then PASOK shouldn't be able to form a coalition with either, and there's not enough seats left to form a majority.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 11, 2012, 02:37:14 am
It's the procedure outlined in the Constitution.
Anyways, DIMAR-ND-PASOK, with a DIMAR PM is the proposal of PASOK, now. Only the approval of ND is needed.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 11, 2012, 02:50:32 am
Of course, just playing devil's advocate here, whatever signals of tacit approval that potentially get sent in favor of a coup-if-necessary could just be the Troika hedging their bets. If Greece's military becomes "needed" the austerity deal will be effectively unsalvageable anyway, so it'd be Germany's perfect excuse to kick Greece out of the Eurozone and wash their hands of everything.     

The problem here isn't so much austerity. The mischief and mayhem is caused mostly by interest groups with entrenched privileges which stringently oppose even the slightest reform (taxi drivers, university professors, and above all civil servants) and the leftist parties like KKE and SYRIZA whose sole purpose is to create turmoil in the name of protecting workers rights, even during good times.   


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 11, 2012, 03:02:41 am
It's the procedure outlined in the Constitution.
Anyways, DIMAR-ND-PASOK, with a DIMAR PM is the proposal of PASOK, now. Only the approval of ND is needed.

And PASOK's talking with ND at this very moment, so presumably we'll hear fairly quickly whether a tentative coalition is workable.

Honestly, though, I'm not sure if DIMAR's entirely on board as much as Venizelos is making it out to be:

http://www.euractiv.com/euro-finance/venizelos-holds-break-talks-greece-news-512640
Quote
After talks with Venizelos on Thursday, the Democratic Left leader, Fotis Kouvelis, said he was willing to join a broad-based government that would keep the country in the euro but "gradually" disengage it from the terms of the EU/IMF bailout.

"There is a very slim chance for a coalition if Kouvelis agrees," one socialist party official quoted by Reuters said, adding that his party is “split right down the middle”.

According to the daily Kathimerini, Kouvelis appears to believe that a unity government with a specific agenda could meet his two specific goals of keeping Greece in the euro and moving the country away from the fiscal restrictions of the bailout programme agreed with the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

“I propose the formation of a broad-based government made up of trustworthy political figures that will reflect and respect the message from the elections,” Kouvelis said.

Sounds to me like Kouvelis is hedging a bit, and wants to see what the actual coalition agreement would look like. He's also probably worried that half of his caucus would jump back over to Syriza if DIMAR joins a government with nobody else but ND and PASOK. It's possible Venizelos trumped up yesterday's meeting so much just to pressure DIMAR against backing out.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 11, 2012, 03:09:05 am
Here's some definite good news, at least: The EU will continue funding Greece until they have a government, even if new elections are needed (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-eu-greece-financingbre84911l-20120510,0,5861376.story).

Quote
"My understanding is that a second election in Greece could be by mid-June. We have the means to support Greece through the end of June," a second euro zone official said.

Asked if the funding could be disbursed even though there would be no proper Greek government to enforce the conditions of the bailout, the official said: "No one would expect a non-existent government to be passing legislation."

"We will provide enough funds for Greece to stay afloat for as long as the political decision is clarified," the first euro zone official said.

"There is no use letting them default in the middle of things. That is what yesterday was all about - giving them enough money to stay afloat and not induce new chaos if people are not paid, but not giving them more than the bare minimum to discourage parties which say that 'we can do whatever we want and they will still save us because it is in the EU's interest.'"


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Colbert on May 11, 2012, 03:59:33 am
SYSRISA is a joke. There is absolutely NO POSSIBILITIES to refuse the bailout AND stay in the eurozone.

At the end of the day, a choice must be made by SYRISA.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: LastVoter on May 11, 2012, 04:11:02 am
So would they keep passing the coalition forming ability down the party rank until it Communists, and then even Fascist get a shot at it? That could be some serous shenanigans.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 11, 2012, 04:39:07 am
So would they keep passing the coalition forming ability down the party rank until it Communists, and then even Fascist get a shot at it? That could be some serous shenanigans.

No. Only the first three parties get the chance to explore if there is a possibility to form a coalition government. If they fail then the President will summon to the presidential mansion all the heads of the parties which have elected deputies.   


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 11, 2012, 05:22:39 am
So would they keep passing the coalition forming ability down the party rank until it Communists, and then even Fascist get a shot at it? That could be some serous shenanigans.

No. Only the first three parties get the chance to explore if there is a possibility to form a coalition government.

Up to four parties, hypothetically, if two of them are tied in seat count :)

Quote
If they fail then the President will summon to the presidential mansion all the heads of the parties which have elected deputies.   

Well, the Constitution says the President summons all parties, but the precedent from 1989 was that only the three biggest parties were invited. That gives Papoulias enough leeway to get away with ignoring Golden Dawn, I'd think, but no reason he'd not invite any of the other parties.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 11, 2012, 06:13:17 am
Kouvelis just said that he's not joining ND or PASOK it government.  I guess it probably was just Venizelos trying to pressure him.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 11, 2012, 06:15:54 am
Kouvelis just said that he's not joining ND or PASOK it government.  I guess it probably was just Venizelos trying to pressure him.

He has said it so many times I've lost counting. Kouvelis isn't stupid or suicidal to carry the burden of governance while leaving the fertile opposition field to Tsipras alone.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 11, 2012, 09:08:25 am
Kouvelis just said that he's not joining ND or PASOK it government.  I guess it probably was just Venizelos trying to pressure him.

He has said it so many times I've lost counting. Kouvelis isn't stupid or suicidal to carry the burden of governance while leaving the fertile opposition field to Tsipras alone.

So is it now pretty much certain that new elections will happen?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 11, 2012, 10:38:03 am
If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.
What you are describing clearly is a coup.

Also the EU would never approve of this.
The coup has already happened, and the EU has committed it.
But it probably wouldn't be willing to countenance open military involvement.

ag, you got the German government's objective here all wrong. It is to prevent anybody to leave the Euro, under any circumstances - neither voluntarily nor involuntarily - as that would likely destroy it entirely. Which beyond economic uncertainty would also be a gigantic prestige blow.
If that means Greece cannot have an elected government, cannot have any sort of economic recovery, and px will eventually be forced to emigrate to the US in order to escape starvation, then so be it.
They still think they're doing well economically out of this crisis because of teh reforms yaddah yaddah. There are economists in Germany who have realized the situation for what it is - a bubble, caused by the money needing to go somewhere, and a bubble that will eventually burst no matter what - but they can't get themselves heard. (And I'm not referring to anticapitalist left types.)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 11, 2012, 10:48:23 am
If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.
What you are describing clearly is a coup.

Also the EU would never approve of this.
The coup has already happened, and the EU has committed it.
But it probably wouldn't be willing to countenance open military involvement.

ag, you got the German government's objective here all wrong. It is to prevent anybody to leave the Euro, under any circumstances - neither voluntarily nor involuntarily - as that would likely destroy it entirely. Which beyond economic uncertainty would also be a gigantic prestige blow.
If that means Greece cannot have an elected government, cannot have any sort of economic recovery, and px will eventually be forced to emigrate to the US in order to escape starvation, then so be it.
They still think they're doing well economically out of this crisis because of teh reforms yaddah yaddah. There are economists in Germany who have realized the situation for what it is - a bubble, caused by the money needing to go somewhere, and a bubble that will eventually burst no matter what - but they can't get themselves heard. (And I'm not referring to anticapitalist left types.)

I'm sure they will eventually have to face reality at some point. I can't imagine anyone could possibly perseverate in this view in spite of evidence.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 11, 2012, 10:59:56 am
Just to clarify things. When I say it won't be a coup I mean (besides the fact that it will be done in an ostensibly constitutional way) that the military won't actually be running things. There will be a political, pro-European government that will enact the reforms and other measures that have been stalled due to public opposition, without any input or involvement by the generals and the admirals. They will merely act to preserve law and order and prevent any kind of destructive disruptions like the ones caused by the taxi drivers last summer or the members of KKE which close the ports every now and then.

Damn! I never thought that I would actually discuss something like this in the year 2012.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 11, 2012, 11:08:45 am
They may very well have been approached already when Papandreou was forced out.
I just don't think there'll be any public pronouncement from the military. That would be impossible to sell here.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 11, 2012, 11:15:54 am
There are economists in Germany who have realized the situation for what it is - a bubble, caused by the money needing to go somewhere, and a bubble that will eventually burst no matter what - but they can't get themselves heard. (And I'm not referring to anticapitalist left types.)

So you agree with the far-right Austrian types then, that it all must end in doom?

Kouvelis just said that he's not joining ND or PASOK it government.  I guess it probably was just Venizelos trying to pressure him.

He has said it so many times I've lost counting. Kouvelis isn't stupid or suicidal to carry the burden of governance while leaving the fertile opposition field to Tsipras alone.

That is not good at all. By that kind of thinking, no democratic party should carry the burden of governance now. Even it would be a very risky proposition for Tsipras.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 11, 2012, 11:26:42 am
No. Or nyes. I agree the Euro has major construction flaws that didn't matter only as long as nobody cared.
And alas, these problems are largely due to Germany winning the negotiations on how it was to be set up but Southern Europe won on who was to be included, ie everybody who wanted to. Which latter victory, hilariously, is thanks in part to Britain's unwillingness to join the Euro and our desire to make it a "success story" anyways. A fully integrated joint currency of only Germany-France-Benelux, with the rest of the EU connected to it in much the same way as it was in the 90s, including the possibility to opt out, would I think have weathered the crisis fine.)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 11, 2012, 11:30:12 am
Merkel looks sane enough to me. In particular, it does begin to seem she realizes, that, short of incorporating Greece into Bavaria (:)) ), there aren't many ways to keep Greece in the Eurozone of which Germany would want to be a part. The excuse that Greece is no longer a democracy would be appropriate enough to cut the line.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 11, 2012, 11:37:52 am
Merkel and begun to realize anything really do not belong in one sentence. She has deeply held unchangeable convictions until they're replaced with completely different deeply held unchangeable convictions. (It is so obvious she's a Lutheran parson's daughter. ;D )
(Other members of her government or her party... ah, that's a different matter.)

Though frankly, Syriza being able to form a government and official Greece publicly repudiating all the bad things she has done to them would be a stronger push factor by far for her than Greece being "no longer a democracy". Who is or isn't a democracy is still a question to be decided by our media, after all, and only somewhat affected by the facts on the ground.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 11, 2012, 11:53:24 am
Never expected you to sound so apocalyptic :))

Let's agree on something, at least. Either Syriza (or the like), eventually, form an anti-austerity government or Greece ceases to be a democracy. In the former case Greece will be kicked out of the euro. In the latter case it will be kicked out of both euro and Europe. Merkel, whatever you say of her, is a good politician, who can count that far.

And, no, what's a democracy and what's not is, usually, fairly straightforward - straightforward enough for the (foreign) media not being able to define it.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 11, 2012, 12:12:25 pm
Never expected you to sound so apocalyptic :))

Let's agree on something, at least. Either Syriza (or the like), eventually, form an anti-austerity government or Greece ceases to be a democracy. In the former case Greece will be kicked out of the euro. In the latter case it will be kicked out of both euro and Europe. Merkel, whatever you say of her, is a good politician, who can count that far.
I don't see where you're getting the notion from that anybody in the European ptb or in their media - has counted that far yet. It is blatantly obvious that they haven't (though they may well be getting there.) and that they're holding out hope for a government that fulfills their (to an extent flexible) minimum standards, regarding both democracy and austerity/their power and influence (heh, they're spending money on it.) I mean, it's not as if the current Greek government is elected. It's not as if the current Italian government is elected. It's not as if Belgium has had elected governments for most of the past few years. And it's not as if these people see anything whatsoever wrong with that.
Merkel fully expected Sarkozy to pull through. No one taking his news on the issue from German tv would have remotely shared our expectation that he was utterly done for. They're lost in their own bubble where what they're doing is right and everybody will be made to see that eventually. It happens when you don't talk to anybody outside the circle.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 12, 2012, 09:01:48 am
On a related note, the Intrade prices in these markets has gone up markedly in the last week or so:

Any country currently using the Euro to announce the intention to drop it...
before Dec. 31, 2012: 42.0
before Dec. 31, 2013: 60.0


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Vosem on May 12, 2012, 09:20:22 am
Averaging out the three extant polls for a June election, from MARC on May 10, KAPA RESEARCH on May 12, and METRON ANALYSIS on May 12, we get:

Vote:
SYRIZA 24.6%
ND 20.0%
PASOK 13.1%
ANEL 9.7%
KKE 6.3%
XA 5.4%
DIMAR 5.1%
Greens 2.2%
LAOS 2.1%
DX 1.8%
DISY 1.7%
DRASI 1.5%
Other 6.5%

Seats:
SYRIZA 123 (+71)
ND 59 (-49)
PASOK 39 (-2)
ANEL 29 (-4)
KKE 19 (-7)
XA 16 (-5)
DIMAR 15 (-4)

After seeing its vote decline by 15% but nevertheless gaining 17 seats in the 6 May election, ND gains 1 percentage point somehow but nevertheless loses 49 seats. Oh you 50-seat bonus...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 12, 2012, 01:14:37 pm
If somehow funds are cut off from Greece yet the country remains on the euro still, the situation might still be salvaged. As I understand it, popular support for remaining on the euro remains much higher than popular support for austerity. If Greeks saw for a brief time what life is like without external funding, public opinion may change. Let us say government services are shut down, it is like the strikes in the UK in 1974 or 1979. At the same time, Germany must give Greece more time to fulfill its obligations, as well as stimulate its own economy.
Since Greek Euro membership is the main problem now, thats not a good solution.

At the same time,they can't quit the Euro without quitting the EU.

A late reply... but it may be a good solution for preserving the euro. While it would be fine if Greece alone left the euro, unfortunately Greece leaving the euro a this juncture with so many other countries' issues unresolved would set off contagion. That would either force the ECB to intervene massively - if it does not the entire euro will end. Even that even big majorities in Greece - even SYRIZA supports the euro, that would not be an optimal outcome.

To prevent contagion and preserve the euro, Greece could be cut off from aid but stay on the currency. This would force it to undergo austerity yet at the same time it would not require politicians to approve austerity. But nor would it require the government to violate democracy. The Greek government would simply stop operating for a period of time, in certain areas. Such as, civil servants do not get paid, or the mail does not get delivered, and such and such. It would be horrible, but give the Greeks a taste and then more time to think whether they really want to go back to the Drachma or not. At this point, Greek electorate is not thinking clearly. It is a solution that is compatible with German-demands of austerity, current Greek preferences to stay in the euro, and democracy.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Yelnoc on May 12, 2012, 01:38:18 pm
Averaging out the three extant polls for a June election, from MARC on May 10, KAPA RESEARCH on May 12, and METRON ANALYSIS on May 12, we get:

Vote:
SYRIZA 24.6%
ND 20.0%
PASOK 13.1%
ANEL 9.7%
KKE 6.3%
XA 5.4%
DIMAR 5.1%
Greens 2.2%
LAOS 2.1%
DX 1.8%
DISY 1.7%
DRASI 1.5%
Other 6.5%

Seats:
SYRIZA 123 (+71)
ND 59 (-49)
PASOK 39 (-2)
ANEL 29 (-4)
KKE 19 (-7)
XA 16 (-5)
DIMAR 15 (-4)

After seeing its vote decline by 15% but nevertheless gaining 17 seats in the 6 May election, ND gains 1 percentage point somehow but nevertheless loses 49 seats. Oh you 50-seat bonus...
Actually Syriza will not get the 50 seat bonus unless they manage to merge their coalition into one party.  They are legally a coalition, and thus inelgible, so even if they placed first in the popular vote and ND second, ND would get the 50 seat bonus (assuming, again, that they are still a coalition).  I would hope that would be enough to spark major riots.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Vosem on May 12, 2012, 01:57:35 pm
Averaging out the three extant polls for a June election, from MARC on May 10, KAPA RESEARCH on May 12, and METRON ANALYSIS on May 12, we get:

Vote:
SYRIZA 24.6%
ND 20.0%
PASOK 13.1%
ANEL 9.7%
KKE 6.3%
XA 5.4%
DIMAR 5.1%
Greens 2.2%
LAOS 2.1%
DX 1.8%
DISY 1.7%
DRASI 1.5%
Other 6.5%

Seats:
SYRIZA 123 (+71)
ND 59 (-49)
PASOK 39 (-2)
ANEL 29 (-4)
KKE 19 (-7)
XA 16 (-5)
DIMAR 15 (-4)

After seeing its vote decline by 15% but nevertheless gaining 17 seats in the 6 May election, ND gains 1 percentage point somehow but nevertheless loses 49 seats. Oh you 50-seat bonus...
Actually Syriza will not get the 50 seat bonus unless they manage to merge their coalition into one party.  They are legally a coalition, and thus inelgible, so even if they placed first in the popular vote and ND second, ND would get the 50 seat bonus (assuming, again, that they are still a coalition).  I would that would be enough to spark major riots.

If that's so, ND would get 109 seats (+1), SYRIZA would get 73 (+21), and the others would be unchanged.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 12, 2012, 02:45:26 pm
Syriza would still get the fifty seat bonus; they're a "party" for the purposes of electoral law as long as Syriza's leader declares it to be so to the electoral commission.

Edit- and even if they didn't for some reason do so, the fifty seat bonus wouldn't apply and all 300 seats would be allocated proportionally IIRC; it wouldn't go to ND.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 12, 2012, 07:00:35 pm
Syriza's position:

"Syriza argues that Greece can abandon the bailout and European leaders will not carry out their threats to withhold funding, because they cannot risk the damage to other EU countries that would be caused by a Greek collapse. "They will be begging us to take the money," Syriza's deputy, Dimitris Stratoulis, claimed on Friday."

Really? These are the people whom the Greek voters want to bet the future of their country on?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 12, 2012, 07:02:33 pm
Well, they are right.
If Greece goes down, Europe goes down.
Hard austerity isn't the solution, since it kills growth.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 12, 2012, 07:08:37 pm
Syriza's position:

"Syriza argues that Greece can abandon the bailout and European leaders will not carry out their threats to withhold funding, because they cannot risk the damage to other EU countries that would be caused by a Greek collapse. "They will be begging us to take the money," Syriza's deputy, Dimitris Stratoulis, claimed on Friday."

Really? These are the people whom the Greek voters want to bet the future of their country on?

These people are just a bunch of jokers. Today another of their prominent members told that they would force people with over 20000 euros income to loan 100 euros every month to the poors.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 12, 2012, 07:09:16 pm
Well, they are right.
If Greece goes down, Europe goes down.
Hard austerity isn't the solution, since it kills growth.

Yes but only Germany can choose growth for Europe. The idea that Greece can choose growth within the Euro is the fatal lie of Syriza. Will Germans really be begging Greece to take the money? Name one German who would- it can be anybody.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 12, 2012, 07:48:39 pm
Well, if all the Euro countries decide to pursue a sensible policy for Euro, Germany will have no choice, but to end their short-view egoist policy.

The current laissez-faire monetary of the Euro is the problem. And since it's good for Germany, Germany froces it to stay that way. Which is dumb, because it will lead to an economical collapse in Europe.

But Merkel doesn't care. She won't been in power when that will happen. She chose short term popularity, without giving a damn about future.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Colbert on May 12, 2012, 09:51:01 pm
everybody will don't care but...i had read that the royalist party of greece was forbidden to run on the election. Apparently, because they don't want to be loyal to the republican consitution.

At the same time, golden showerdawn can run... :/


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 12, 2012, 11:17:18 pm
Well, if all the Euro countries decide to pursue a sensible policy for Euro, Germany will have no choice, but to end their short-view egoist policy.

The current laissez-faire monetary of the Euro is the problem. And since it's good for Germany, Germany froces it to stay that way. Which is dumb, because it will lead to an economical collapse in Europe.

But Merkel doesn't care. She won't been in power when that will happen. She chose short term popularity, without giving a damn about future.

Well sure, I agree with that. But with regard to the topic of this thread (Greece 2012) it is Syriza that is lying to the people about its platform- a pure fantasy. If they try to implement it, they may not end up any better than PASOK. And at that point you have the mainstream and the radical left discredited - who is left? Hint: the name has a shiny element in it, and a time of day.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on May 12, 2012, 11:39:51 pm
Well, if all the Euro countries decide to pursue a sensible policy for Euro, Germany will have no choice, but to end their short-view egoist policy.

The current laissez-faire monetary of the Euro is the problem. And since it's good for Germany, Germany froces it to stay that way. Which is dumb, because it will lead to an economical collapse in Europe.

But Merkel doesn't care. She won't been in power when that will happen. She chose short term popularity, without giving a damn about future.

Well sure, I agree with that. But with regard to the topic of this thread (Greece 2012) it is Syriza that is lying to the people about its platform- a pure fantasy. If they try to implement it, they may not end up any better than PASOK. And at that point you have the mainstream and the radical left discredited - who is left? Hint: the name has a shiny element in it, and a time of day.


SYRIZA has a very clear position.  What they're saying is that Greece needs to finally tax its rich (and that's where the money will come to pay for the social safety net that is collapsing due to Merkel's policies).  They're also saying that under EU laws no one has the right to force Greece out of the eurozone, which was confirmed by the Austrian Finance Minister, and it wouldn't benefit the the other Eurozone countries either as it would lead to a great amount of instability in all Mediterrenean economies.  The other thing they're saying is that Greece must begin producing green energy (solar, wind), something they obviously have in abundance.  Don't forget that SYRIZA along with being a leftist party is also a green party.
Finally when a country has been in a recession for 5 years, at some point the austerity has to stop, if only for humanitarian reasons.
 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 13, 2012, 12:07:21 am
Except Syriza can't end austerity, even if they're right about the euro thing (which is uncertain).

The problem with austerity is this... after 4 years of recession, why haven't prices come down? Why hasn't the current account deficit been eliminated? Greece is getting all the pain of austerity but none of the benefit. That is the real riddle here. But it's more an economics question, off topic.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 13, 2012, 12:31:42 am
Greece, probably, can't be kicked out of the euro: but, once it starts acting unilaterally, the euro will soon become so hot for it, that it will run kicking and screaming to the exit itself, all completely voluntarily. The general capital controls will be introduced by the Greeks themselves, in a desperate attempt to keep their own banking system from collapsing (it is not unlikely, that the banks will be nationalized, anyway). Also, most likely, they will quickly be forced to start paying its domestic obligations in IOUs: there would simply not be enough cash. Whether those IOUs or money in Greek bank accounts at that point is still technically denominated in euros or not won't matter much: it all will trade at a steep discount to euro either in the open, or in the black market, if doing it in the open is prohibited. That's all.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: LastVoter on May 13, 2012, 02:54:07 am
Except Syriza can't end austerity, even if they're right about the euro thing (which is uncertain).

The problem with austerity is this... after 4 years of recession, why haven't prices come down? Why hasn't the current account deficit been eliminated? Greece is getting all the pain of austerity but none of the benefit. That is the real riddle here. But it's more an economics question, off topic.
Because there are no benefits to austerity.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 13, 2012, 07:28:58 am
Well, they are right.
If Greece goes down, Europe goes down.
Hard austerity isn't the solution, since it kills growth.
This domesday scenario simply isnt right. Greece is a small and insignificant part of the European economy. If Greece goes bankrupt it will of course affect general trust in the Euro, but after a while sensible, rational actors in the financial markets will come to terms with the fact, that this is an extreme case, that is not likely to replicate in important countries like Spain and Italy. There is a large element of hysteria in the reaction to the Greek crisis and a lack of understanding of the differences between long term and short term consequences.

Secondly, large parts of Europe (East and North) are not in the Euro-zone. You cant say Euro-zone = Europe.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 13, 2012, 11:56:30 am
So I amused myself with a new electoral system for Greece.
The starting point was, really, "what if instead of that 50-seat bonus they just used D'Hondt in the constituencies to achieve pseudo proportionality, like the Spanish and the Portuguese?" The problem is, obviously, that Greek constituencies have between 1 and 42 seats available - people in smaller constituencies would have voted differently with a different electoral system.
So I drew new ones. ;D For essentially lazy reasons, the corridor for constituency size has been set at from 6 to 17 seats (so Athens B was the only place too large and none of the peripheries was too small for a constituency of its own) and new constituencies' seat totals are just component constituencies' seat numbers, tallied. THis also means there are only 288 seats, not 300.

Tally:
ND 76
Syriza 63
PASOK 48
Anel 36
KKE 25
ChrA 18
Dimar 15
Greens 1
LAOS 0. Lack of pronounced strongholds.
Disy 3
DX! 1
Drasi 2
all other 0

the constituencies. Listing all parties winning seats.
Thrace, 10 seats. This splits the current periphery (of East Macedon & Thrace) along the traditional regional line.
ND 23.6, 3
PASOK 19.2, 3
Syriza 14.3, 2
Anel 8.5, 1
Disy 8.1, 1

East Macedon, 7 seats
ND 24.8, 3
PASOK 17.0, 2
Syriza 12.4, 1
Anel 11.2, 1

Serres, 7 seats. In grouping Central Macedon, I left the Thessaloniki A constituency unchanged (duh) and decided to have three rather than two constituencies for the remainder as would technically have been possible. This meant Serres prefecture on the borders with East Macedon stands alone.
ND 30.1, 4
PASOK 15.9, 1
Anel 10.7, 1
Syriza 9.2, 1

Thessaloniki, 16 seats
Syriza 17.5, 4
ND 14.8, 3
Anel 11.6, 3
PASOK 10.4, 2
KKE 9.3, 2
Dimar 7.4, 1
ChrA 6.9, 1

Central Macedon (Thessaloniki B, Chalkidiki, Kilkis), 13 seats
ND 21.9, 4
Syriza 13.7, 2
PASOK 12.9, 2
Anel 11.7, 2
KKE 8.4, 1
ChrA 7.6, 1
Dimar 6.4, 1

West Central Macedon (Pella, Imathia, Pieria), 12 seats
ND 25.2, 4
PASOK 17.1, 2
Anel 11.5, 2
Syriza 10.9, 1
KKE 7.4, 1
ChrA 7.4, 1
Dimar 6.3, 1

West Macedon, 10 seats
ND 25.9, 4
PASOK 15.2, 2
Syriza 13.4, 2
Anel 10.4, 1
KKE 8.0, 1

Epiros, 11 seats
ND 25.0, 4
Syriza 17.6, 3
PASOK 16.4, 2
KKE 8.4, 1
Anel 7.7, 1

Ionian Islands, 6 seats
ND 19.7, 2
Syriza 18.1, 2
KKE 13.4, 1
PASOK 12.8, 1

West Thessaly (the landlocked prefectures of Trikala and Karditsa), 10 seats
ND 26.5, 4
PASOK 16.2, 2
Syriza 13.1, 1
KKE 10.4, 1
Anel 8.4, 1
Dimar 6.6, 1

East Thessaly (Larisa and Magnesia), 13 seats
ND 20.7, 3
Syriza 15.7, 3
PASOK 12.4, 2
KKE 10.4, 2
Anel 10.2, 1
ChrA 6.4, 1
Dimar 6.2, 1

Central Greece and Euboea, 17 seats
ND 18.4, 4
Syriza 17.3, 4
PASOK 13.5, 3
Anel 12.1, 3
ChrA 7.8, 1
KKE 7.8, 1
Dimar 5.7, 1

Aetolia & Akarnania, 8 seats. I split the West Greece region in the logical way, ie along the Gulf of Corinth.
ND 24.1, 3
PASOK 17.0, 2
Syriza 15.3, 1
KKE 8.5, 1
ChrA 7.9, 1

NW Peloponnese, 15 seats (Elis and Achaia)
ND 19.3, 4
Syriza 19.3, 4 (98 votes behind)
PASOK 15.6, 3
Anel 8.8, 1
KKE 7.5, 1
ChrA 6.8, 1
Dimar 5.7, 1

South Peloponnese (Laconia and Messenia), 8 seats
ND 32.9, 4
PASOK 14.1, 2
Syriza 12.3, 1
ChrA 8.8, 1

East Peloponnese (Corinth, Argolis, Arcadia), 10 seats
ND 24.5, 4
PASO 15.2, 2
Syriza 14.1, 2
ChrA 10.1, 1
Anel 8.8, 1

Attica, 12 seats. Identical not only to the constituency but also to the East Attica and West Attica "regional units".
Syriza 19.4, 3
ND 13.7, 2
Anel 13.5, 2
ChrA 9.7, 2
KKE 8.7, 1
PASOK 8.2, 1
Dimar 5.3, 1

Athens City, 17 seats. Identical to the current constituency and the official city.
Syriza 19.1, 4
ND 15.8, 3
PASOK 9.7, 2
Anel 9.0, 2
ChrA 8.8, 2
KKE 8.6, 2
Dimar 6.0, 1
Drasi 4.3, 1

Athens Central Suburban, 8 seats. That part of the Central Athens regional unit outside the city of Athens, and in the current Athens B constituency. Mostly to the city's immediate east with two unfortunate enclaves to its northwest, but I decided to let it stand and use the regional units here.
Syriza 23.3, 3
ND 11.9, 1
KKE 10.7, 1
Anel 10.3, 1
PASOK 9.5, 1
Dimar 6.9, 1

North Athens, 13 seats. This one and the next two identical to regional units of the same name.
Syriza 19.8, 3
ND 14.6, 2
Anel 10.6, 2
PASOK 9.1, 1
KKE 7.5, 1
Dimar 6.7, 1
Drasi 6.1, 1
ChrA 5.7, 1
DX! 5.3, 1

West Athens, 10 seats
Syriza 24.3, 4
KKE 12.5, 2
Anel 11.5, 1
ND 10.0, 1
PASOK 8.6, 1
ChrA 8.2, 1

South Athens, 11 seats
Syriza 20.8, 3
ND 12.5, 2
Anel 11.9, 2
PASOK 9.1, 1
KKE 8.6, 1
Dimar 6.9, 1
ChrA 6.5, 1

Piraeus, 14 seats. The A and B constituencies combined. Also the Piraeus and Islands regional units combined (the division is not identical. Piraeus A is the city and the islands except the largest one of Salamis; Piraeus B is the proletarian portside suburbs west of Piraeus plus Salamis. Piraeus regional unit is the mainland parts of both, Islands is... oh I guess you figured it out).
Syriza 22.0, 4
ND 12.6, 2
Anel 12.5, 2
KKE 10.4, 2
ChrA 9.2, 2
PASOK 8.3, 1
Dimar 6.0, 1

North Aegean, 6 seats
ND 19.8, 2
KKE 16.0, 1
PASOK 14.6, 1
Syriza 13.5, 1
Anel 9.8, 1

South Aegean, 8 seats
ND 18.1, 2
Anel 15.8, 2
PASOK 14.6, 2
Syriza 13.6, 1
Dimar 7.1, 1

Crete, 16 seats
PASOK 18.5, 4
Syriza 15.8, 3
Anel 11.0, 2
Disy 10.1, 2
ND 10.1, 2 (seven votes behind! :D )
Dimar 7.9, 1
KKE 6.2, 1
Greens 4.3, 1


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Colbert on May 13, 2012, 05:04:59 pm
Well, they are right.
If Greece goes down, Europe goes down.
Hard austerity isn't the solution, since it kills growth.
This domesday scenario simply isnt right. Greece is a small and insignificant part of the European economy. If Greece goes bankrupt it will of course affect general trust in the Euro, but after a while sensible, rational actors in the financial markets will come to terms with the fact, that this is an extreme case, that is not likely to replicate in important countries like Spain and Italy. There is a large element of hysteria in the reaction to the Greek crisis and a lack of understanding of the differences between long term and short term consequences.

Secondly, large parts of Europe (East and North) are not in the Euro-zone. You cant say Euro-zone = Europe.



markets are not rationnals and trust is one of the most important thing in economy.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 13, 2012, 06:35:56 pm
Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition? :P


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Yelnoc on May 13, 2012, 06:38:11 pm
Syriza would still get the fifty seat bonus; they're a "party" for the purposes of electoral law as long as Syriza's leader declares it to be so to the electoral commission.

Edit- and even if they didn't for some reason do so, the fifty seat bonus wouldn't apply and all 300 seats would be allocated proportionally IIRC; it wouldn't go to ND.
Are you sure about that?  I got my info from a Greek poster on another forum.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 13, 2012, 10:37:36 pm
Syriza would still get the fifty seat bonus; they're a "party" for the purposes of electoral law as long as Syriza's leader declares it to be so to the electoral commission.

Edit- and even if they didn't for some reason do so, the fifty seat bonus wouldn't apply and all 300 seats would be allocated proportionally IIRC; it wouldn't go to ND.
Are you sure about that?  I got my info from a Greek poster on another forum.

I don't remember my initial source, but here's confirmation of my interpretation by our forum's own Greek poster:

I don't know where you got that info from but I'm 99.9% sure Syriza in first place would still get the bonus.

Indeed. This part of the law is blatantly unconstitutional and our supreme court has already endorsed a VERY lax enforcement of the law.
Essentially a signed statement by a party's leader declaring that it's a single party and not a coalition is enough.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 14, 2012, 12:30:17 am
Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition? :P

Yes.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Yelnoc on May 14, 2012, 10:32:06 am
Syriza would still get the fifty seat bonus; they're a "party" for the purposes of electoral law as long as Syriza's leader declares it to be so to the electoral commission.

Edit- and even if they didn't for some reason do so, the fifty seat bonus wouldn't apply and all 300 seats would be allocated proportionally IIRC; it wouldn't go to ND.
Are you sure about that?  I got my info from a Greek poster on another forum.

I don't remember my initial source, but here's confirmation of my interpretation by our forum's own Greek poster:

I don't know where you got that info from but I'm 99.9% sure Syriza in first place would still get the bonus.

Indeed. This part of the law is blatantly unconstitutional and our supreme court has already endorsed a VERY lax enforcement of the law.
Essentially a signed statement by a party's leader declaring that it's a single party and not a coalition is enough.

Ok, well this is where I got it from.  If you have an account on ah.com read the thread (http://alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=238695&page=46); it's very informative.

Quote from: Don_Giorgio;6049468
Laws 3231/2004 and 3636/2009 do not say it explicitly but there is a case law from the Supreme Court which applies here and stipulates that 50 seats bonus is unconstitutional if there is multifragmentation in Parliament as this bonus would remove seats from lesser parties thus twisting popular vote.

This 50 seats bonus has been challenged in the past and the Supreme Court found it constitutional but in the case of multifragmentation is unconstitutional as it is unjust for lesser parties...

Also current electoral law 3636/2008 allows a coalition of parties to take the 50 seats bonus if the "main" party has the most votes than the other collaborating parties... However this doesnt apply here as SYRIZA appears in ballots as unified without the option of voting separately. It only applies on loose coalitions like when parties agree to cooperate but they retain separate ballot papers.

i.e. AKOA is one of the parties that make SYRIZA and when someone votes he might vote for AKOA's candidate but not for the party of AKOA and the vote goes to SYRIZA as a coalition. The supreme court stipulates that voting for a certain candidate does not imply that you vote for his party if he is in a coalition of parties and the ballot goes to the entire coalition.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 14, 2012, 10:53:07 am
So what's going on? Any government in sight?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Great Again: Roy Moore's Handmaid's Tale on May 14, 2012, 11:15:19 am
Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition? :P

Yes.

Has this been a political issue in Greece before all the troubles started?

Otherwise it's just seems a bit too contrived. "Ah, well, we've got major economic problems now and desperately need some money. Luckily, there was this war 70 years ago we never got any reparations for, so maybe we'll go with this one."


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 15, 2012, 08:51:44 am
Swedish television now reporting that Venizelos is saying it's official, there will be new elections.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Yelnoc on May 15, 2012, 10:48:13 am
Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition? :P

Yes.

Has this been a political issue in Greece before all the troubles started?

Otherwise it's just seems a bit too contrived. "Ah, well, we've got major economic problems now and desperately need some money. Luckily, there was this war 70 years ago we never got any reparations for, so maybe we'll go with this one."
I thought Germany gave Greece a lump sum of money in 1960 or thereabouts.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 15, 2012, 11:02:44 am
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbyFPPG1MXQ/T7DtNjdrJkI/AAAAAAAAI4U/29KgXsrRkdE/s1600/Dim_Xatz_tanea140512.jpg)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 15, 2012, 11:06:54 am
My sympathies, Px.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 15, 2012, 11:17:14 am
Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 15, 2012, 11:19:04 am
Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 15, 2012, 11:21:41 am
Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Maybe if it's only Greece, but you know that other countries would follow suit.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 15, 2012, 11:23:55 am
Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Maybe if it's only Greece, but you know that other countries would follow suit.

Hmmm. We'll see soon enough. Do you reckon I should be exchanging my saving from € to $? ;)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 15, 2012, 11:28:21 am
A Chief Justice will be appointed tomorrow to lead a caretaker government.

In other news: newest poll, from some company called Rass.

SYRIZA: 20.5%
ND: 19.4%
PASOK: 11.8%
ANEL: 7.8%
DIMAR: 6.2%
KKE: 4.8%
XA: 3.8%
[threshold: 3%]
DISY 2.4%
DX: 2.3%
LAOS: 2.0%
Greens: 1.8%

others: 3.7%
undecided: 11.3%

That's a lot of parties near the threshold, and it's refreshing to see Golden Dawn polling so low. It looks like ND might have a chance to keep the fifty bonus seats if undecideds on the right coalesce around them to a greater extent than leftist undecideds do so for SYRIZA.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 15, 2012, 11:35:03 am
Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Maybe if it's only Greece, but you know that other countries would follow suit.

Hmmm. We'll see soon enough. Do you reckon I should be exchanging my saving from € to $? ;)

Who knows ? It depends a bit on the results of the next greek elections, a bit on the results of the french legislative elections this june, a bit on other european election, and a lot on the temperament of European leaders. I'm pretty sure the next 6 months will be crucial in determining our future...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 15, 2012, 11:35:39 am
Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Of course. Especially if are eager to relive the experience of Ceausescu's Romania.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 15, 2012, 11:39:10 am
Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Of course. Especially if are eager to relive the experience of Ceausescu's Romania.

Think it would get that bad? I admit I don't have much insight into how bad things really are on the ground in Greece.

Either way, I do feel sorry that we all got ourselves into this mess to begin with. And I'm not pointing fingers at any one nationality here. I think everyone jumped into this focused on a grand political project without adequately considering the potential consequences.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 15, 2012, 11:41:20 am
Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Of course. Especially if are eager to relive the experience of Ceausescu's Romania.

Think it would get that bad? I admit I don't have much insight into how bad things really are on the ground in Greece.

Either way, I do feel sorry that we all got ourselves into this mess to begin with. And I'm not pointing fingers at any one nationality here. I think everyone jumped into this focused on a grand political project without adequately considering the potential consequences.

Honestly, it doesn't matter much to me where the problem stems from. The main issue is what has (and has not) been done to solve it since it emerged.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 15, 2012, 11:48:22 am
Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Of course. Especially if are eager to relive the experience of Ceausescu's Romania.

Think it would get that bad? I admit I don't have much insight into how bad things really are on the ground in Greece.

Either way, I do feel sorry that we all got ourselves into this mess to begin with. And I'm not pointing fingers at any one nationality here. I think everyone jumped into this focused on a grand political project without adequately considering the potential consequences.

We are broke, we don't produce anything (we import garlic from China and lemons from Morocco!) and our public administration is in shambles and rife with corruption.

If we return to drachma we will probably experience inflation around 50%. We will be unable to buy oil, medicine and other vital supplies and the people will need in a few months a couple of millions just to buy a loaf of bread.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 15, 2012, 11:51:55 am
So I guess the big question is, Px: Will the voters show the maturity they failed to show in the last elections when confronted with this possibility?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 15, 2012, 11:55:28 am
As soon as Greece leaves the Euro, so does Spain. And then the whole house of cards collapses. Greece isn't big enough to take down the Eurozone on its own, but it's certainly big enough to start the mad dash for the door.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 15, 2012, 12:01:38 pm
So I guess the big question is, Px: Will the voters show the maturity they failed to show in the last elections when confronted with this possibility?

Maturity ?!? Goddamnit, this post is so wrong that it depresses me...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 15, 2012, 12:03:57 pm
So I guess the big question is, Px: Will the voters show the maturity they failed to show in the last elections when confronted with this possibility?

Maturity ?!? Goddamnit, this post is so wrong that it depresses me...

Disagreement with the neoliberal establishment is a sign of immaturity and lack of seriousness, Antonio.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 15, 2012, 12:11:21 pm
So I guess the big question is, Px: Will the voters show the maturity they failed to show in the last elections when confronted with this possibility?

How would voting ND show that sort of 'maturity', exactly?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 15, 2012, 12:14:04 pm
I would also point out that, so far, the greatest immaturity and most utter lack of realism has been displayed by European neoliberal leaders, and chiefly Merkel.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 15, 2012, 12:14:46 pm
So I guess the big question is, Px: Will the voters show the maturity they failed to show in the last elections when confronted with this possibility?

How would voting ND show that sort of 'maturity', exactly?

It would be mature in the sense that it would keep the money flowing that Greece needs right now. I understand that people are severely hurting, and that it seems to them to be in their short term interest to stop the pain (i.e. reject austerity), but you can't realistically expect other countries to go along with giving, giving and giving without at least some sign that the people receiving the money are interested in actually solving their budget problems.

I understand the irony of being forced to vote for a party that largely contributed to the crisis in the first place, but voting for the Radical Left isn't an option if Greece desires to avoid the catastrophe Px is describing.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 15, 2012, 12:20:45 pm
The money that would flow into Greece so that Greece can pay back the money that it owes, much of which it owes because of the horrific (hilarious?) failure of the first grand plan to solve its fiscal crisis? While things continue to get ever worse on a day-to-day basis in realityland? Election winning slogan right there.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 15, 2012, 12:23:05 pm
Not, I should add, that I'm especially well disposed towards SYRIZA or whoever. Clearly they are delusional. But then so is everyone else (Merkel and so on absolutely included), if in different ways.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 15, 2012, 12:25:41 pm
"Some sign?" The entire political establishment has destroyed itself for the sake of "solving their budget problems."

In 2010-11, the Greek government adopted measures to cut spending by 8.7 percent of GDP. In the US, that would be the equivalent of cutting $1.3 trillion off the budget in a single year. In contrast, the US "sequestration" plan only envisions cuts of $1.2 trillion over ten years. So Greece has already done ten times more than, say, the US. Greece's deficit is far lower than numerous other developed countries, including the US and Japan. Yes, I would say they have put "some sign" that they are interested in solving their budget issues. The problem is, the budget is composed of a revenues side as well as a spending side. They are being squeezed to death.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 15, 2012, 12:32:16 pm
"Some sign?" The entire political establishment has destroyed itself for the sake of "solving their budget problems."


Oh absolutely. But voting in the Radical Left would draw that intention into question and seriously suggest that they are no longer interested in saving.

You can't seriously expect countries like Germany, Austria, etc. to continue giving money away if Greece has a government that openly says it has no intention of paying the money back?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 15, 2012, 12:34:54 pm
Yes I don't agree with the Radical Left in this case-- they're saying what people want to hear when they probably know it's not true. Or they've convinced themselves something they want to believe with no basis in reality.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 15, 2012, 01:04:23 pm
If Syriza takes power it's not like they'll commit national economic suicide rather than look like hypocrites, if they had no other option. They're led by a shrewd politician who, if nothing else, certainly realizes at least that being single-handedly responsible for triple digit inflation doesn't bode well in terms of future electoral prospects. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 15, 2012, 01:30:51 pm
Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

You really think the politically dominant European right is going to simply roll-over and surrender on it's core positions just because a new radical government in a country that at the moment is completly dependent on their good will, is threatining to shoot itself? Please Antonio you are much smarter than that.  

And no, your new moderate President that won by a slim margin is not going to make himself immediatly unpopular by demanding French tax-payers pay Greek loans. He is much smarter than that.  


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ingemann on May 15, 2012, 02:01:07 pm
I agree with Swedish Cheese, but there are also another aspect people forget:.
Greece is the Euro country which has behaved in the worst possible (and directly criminal) way, they have shown no interest in any kind of reforms, the medicin has had to be forced down their throat, and they have fought every step of way to not having to reform anything. If they are let off the hook it's a insult to Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland, who have tried seriously to deal with crisis. And worst of all it would open up for other countries doing the same as Greece.
That's the political reaction, in all likelyhood we would also see rising prices for bonds for all Euro countries, because the market would also see that.
As such it's less bad for the rest of the Eurozone if Greece left, it will also serve as a ugly object lection for other members in the crisis. This doesn't mean I don't feel bad for the Greek people, but I see little alternative for EU than to play hardball against Greece.
In the long term I also think it's best for Greece that EU doesn't back down, the disaster which will hit them, will force their politicians to become responsable.  


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 15, 2012, 02:05:54 pm
So I guess the big question is, Px: Will the voters show the maturity they failed to show in the last elections when confronted with this possibility?

Hope springs eternal.
But right now I wouldn't bet my house on that.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 15, 2012, 02:19:04 pm
Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

You really think the politically dominant European right is going to simply roll-over and surrender on it's core positions just because a new radical government in a country that at the moment is completly dependent on their good will, is threatining to shoot itself? Please Antonio you are much smarter than that. 

And no, your new moderate President that won by a slim margin is not going to make himself immediatly unpopular by demanding French tax-payers pay Greek loans. He is much smarter than that.   

Considering their "core positions" are completely unrealistic and that their application has directly resulted into the mess we are currently in, I want to believe that, at some point, right-wing leaders will show some pragmatism and admit that their current policies have utterly failed. Being faced by a ballsy government who tells you "now either you help me or may God have mercy of our souls" can be a huge incentive to that. If they are that smart, this is what they should do.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 15, 2012, 02:39:17 pm
The biggest mistake and miscalculation that Merkozy did was when last November they humiliated Papandreou at Cannes, after the latter decided to hold a referendum about whether we wanted to stay in the Euro or return to drachma. They failed to see that by doing that they essentially discredited the only politician who was seriously trying to pass the necessary reforms and opened the can of worms named instability.

If the referendum was held then, the pro-Euro position would have prevailed with 70-80% and nobody would dare to play chicken with the EU like Tsipras does know.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 15, 2012, 03:01:45 pm
Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

You really think the politically dominant European right is going to simply roll-over and surrender on it's core positions just because a new radical government in a country that at the moment is completly dependent on their good will, is threatining to shoot itself? Please Antonio you are much smarter than that. 

And no, your new moderate President that won by a slim margin is not going to make himself immediatly unpopular by demanding French tax-payers pay Greek loans. He is much smarter than that.   

Considering their "core positions" are completely unrealistic and that their application has directly resulted into the mess we are currently in, I want to believe that, at some point, right-wing leaders will show some pragmatism and admit that their current policies have utterly failed. Being faced by a ballsy government who tells you "now either you help me or may God have mercy of our souls" can be a huge incentive to that. If they are that smart, this is what they should do.

We all want to believe our political opponents will see the light one day and change their wicked ways. Personally I wouldn't want to stake a country on that belief though.

But we will see, Tsipras will be Prime Minister soon enough.   


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 15, 2012, 03:11:21 pm
We all want to believe our political opponents will see the light one day and change their wicked ways.

Especially when facing, you know, facts.

To be clear, I'm not sure they will. I'm just willing to take the bet, because this is the only way out which doesn't involve a total wrecking of EU's economy.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on May 15, 2012, 03:15:26 pm
I hope SYRIZA wins and withdraws from the Eurozone. I'd rather watch the whole world burn than see fellow citizens in the European periphery be subjected to the rape of their economy without their sovereign will being truly exercised. I'd rather the failures of the austeritymongers and the potential crisis they helped to create during the heady boom days be exposed now than see their manufactured problems slowly come to light over the next few years as the neo-liberal vampires suck the lifeblood out of Spain then Portugal then Italy then France. I'm sick of so-called serious people lecturing whole entire nations of people about their profligacy and lazy behavior when the crisis had everything to do with the EU being a flawed project. I'm sick of people treating economics as a morality play to the point where I'd like to see an economic crisis blow up in the face of the Merkels of the world just to see them suffer politically and to see the "center consensus" destroyed permanently.

That's my poorly constructed rant of the day that exposes my sentiments more than my actual policy positions. I've given up on the idea of the European Union actually exercising itself as a legitimate governing body and to me, default is the logical next step. Design a godawful system, get a bad result.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on May 15, 2012, 03:27:17 pm
Interesting blog on the Torygraph (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100017148/appetiser-cost-of-greek-exit-is-e155bn-for-germany-france-trillions-for-meat-course/):

Quote
Appetiser cost of Greek exit is €155bn for Germany, France: trillions for meat course

Eric Dor's team at the IESEG School of Management in Lille has put together a table on the direct costs to Germany and France if Greece is pushed out of the euro.

These assume that relations between Europe and Greece break down in acrimony, with a full-fledged "stuff-you" default on euro liabilities. It assumes a drachma devaluation of 50pc.

Potential losses for the states, including central banks
   
Upper bound of losses Billions €French
State
German
State
TARGET2 liabilities of the Bank of Greece22.730.2
Greek sovereign bonds held by the Eurosyste
m: SMP
9.814
Bilateral loans to Greece in the context
of the first programme
11.415.1
Guarantees to bonds issued by the EFSF to
provide loans to Greece in the context of the
second programme
8.411.2
Guarantees to debts issued by the EFSF
in the context of its participation to the
“Private Sector Involvement” –
restructuration of the Greek debt:
“sweetener”
6.58.6
Guarantees to debts issued by the
EFSF in the context of its participation
to the “Private Sector Involvement” –
restructuration of the Greek debt:
payment of accrued interest
11.4
Guarantees to bonds issued by the
EFSF to provide loans to Greece in order
 to buy back sovereign bonds used by
banks as collateral to obtain funding
from the Eurosystem
7.610.2
Total66.489.8
   
They conclude:

  • The total losses could reach €66.4bn for France and €89.8bn for Germany. These are upper bounds, but even in the case of a partial default, the losses would be huge.
  • Assuming that the new national currency would depreciate by 50 per cent against the euro, which is realistic, the losses for French banks would reach €19.8bn. They would reach €4.5bn for German banks.
   
Sounds about right.

I doubt that the US, China, and the world powers would sit back if the EU tried to "teach Greeks a lesson" by making life Hell for them.

There would be massive global pressure on Europe to handle the exit in a grown-up fashion, with backstops in place to stabilize Greece. The IMF would step in.

The German finance ministry is already drawing up such plans, and quite correctly so (unfortunately roping in the British too to spread the losses, which is a thorny subject).

Needless to say, the real danger is contagion to Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Belgium, France, and the deadly linkages between €15 trillion in public and private debt in these countries and the €27 trillion European banking nexus.

This is where any further errors by EU leaders could take the world into full depression.

This nonsense can of course be stopped in ten minutes if the EU:

1) announces that it will equip itself with a real central bank (a lender of last resort) that takes all risk of sovereign default off the table — with conviction and overwhelming force, with no ifs and buts, and no ambushes from the Bundesbank.

2) announces EMU debt-pooling, fiscal union, a joint EMU budget and tax system, and an EMU government as a counterpart for the enhanced the ECB.

Yes, this means rewriting the German constitution, and in effect means the abolition of Germany as a functioning sovereign nation.

My sympathies to the German people. This is what your leaders got you into (without asking permission). It was the elemental implication of monetary union.

We at the Telegraph screamed from rooftops in the early 1990s that EMU was a destroyer of nation states, and democracies. So did the brave German professors. Nobody would listen.

My guess is that German citizens will not accept this implication. If so, we are all stuffed.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 15, 2012, 03:51:49 pm
All available options are clearly terrible. That is what needs to be said first and foremost.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Great Again: Roy Moore's Handmaid's Tale on May 15, 2012, 04:11:11 pm
Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition? :P

Yes.

Has this been a political issue in Greece before all the troubles started?

Otherwise it's just seems a bit too contrived. "Ah, well, we've got major economic problems now and desperately need some money. Luckily, there was this war 70 years ago we never got any reparations for, so maybe we'll go with this one."
I thought Germany gave Greece a lump sum of money in 1960 or thereabouts.

No clue. We managed to f**k it up so big that I lost track of all the reparations we had to pay.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 15, 2012, 04:22:57 pm
Given than all options are bad, I'm only saying than the best one is the one stopping the neoliberalism in Europe, before the whole state and safety net is destroyed.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ingemann on May 15, 2012, 04:30:41 pm
Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition? :P

Yes.

Has this been a political issue in Greece before all the troubles started?

Otherwise it's just seems a bit too contrived. "Ah, well, we've got major economic problems now and desperately need some money. Luckily, there was this war 70 years ago we never got any reparations for, so maybe we'll go with this one."
I thought Germany gave Greece a lump sum of money in 1960 or thereabouts.

No clue. We managed to f**k it up so big that I lost track of all the reparations we had to pay.

A funny fact, with all the attack by CDU on SSW in Schleswig-Holstein, Denmark gave up any monetary claim against Germany with the Bonn-Copenhagen Declaration in 1955, the same treaty which CDU in Kiel now show themself very hostile to.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 15, 2012, 04:31:12 pm
Actually not all options are bad. There is a good solution. It is simply for Germany to switch to stimulus, a larger central bank role and perhaps some degree of fiscal union, while Greece enacts those reforms which are necessary to stimulate exports and open the labor market. In the short term, Germany will commit to fiscal transfers to Greece which seem endless, but over time the implementation of labor market reforms will mean German prices and wages will rise relative to Greek ones, and Greece will regain competitiveness. As this happens, Greece will become a net exporter to Germany and earn enough euro credits to repay Germany.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 15, 2012, 04:36:13 pm
For anyone who has the stomach, here is a really dystopian view of the future in case of a Greel exit from the Euro.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/if-greece-exits-here-what-happens (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/if-greece-exits-here-what-happens)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on May 15, 2012, 04:48:49 pm
I hope SYRIZA wins and withdraws from the Eurozone. I'd rather watch the whole world burn than see fellow citizens in the European periphery be subjected to the rape of their economy without their sovereign will being truly exercised. I'd rather the failures of the austeritymongers and the potential crisis they helped to create during the heady boom days be exposed now than see their manufactured problems slowly come to light over the next few years as the neo-liberal vampires suck the lifeblood out of Spain then Portugal then Italy then France. I'm sick of so-called serious people lecturing whole entire nations of people about their profligacy and lazy behavior when the crisis had everything to do with the EU being a flawed project. I'm sick of people treating economics as a morality play to the point where I'd like to see an economic crisis blow up in the face of the Merkels of the world just to see them suffer politically and to see the "center consensus" destroyed permanently.

That's my poorly constructed rant of the day that exposes my sentiments more than my actual policy positions. I've given up on the idea of the European Union actually exercising itself as a legitimate governing body and to me, default is the logical next step. Design a godawful system, get a bad result.

Poorly constructed rant or no, I feel like stating that you're not alone in feeling exactly like this.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on May 15, 2012, 05:04:50 pm
After thinking about it a lot... I now believe that Greece will have a better (not so bad) future if they stay in the Euro. I've read a lot about it in right, centre and left newspapers, I've read px and other posters opinions, I've watched some programmes about it on TV... And my conclusion is that Greece will have an even harder problem to fix if they go back to the drachma. The European Union is a good idea, it was good for the growth of Greece and Spain, and for the entire union. The problem is that it's been taken over by Merkel and her ultraliberal friends (bye, bye, Sarko!!).

The only solution is to beat Merkel next year. That's the only real solution. But Greece (and Spain) can't wait until 2013 =S

And if I were a Greek... after "having voted" DIMAR last month (SRYZA being my 2nd option) I'd probably come back home and vote Venizelos. I used to dislike him because he seems to be as conservative as Bono in Spain and even more opportunistic, I'm beginning to believe he really cares about Greece. So, it'd be DIMAR or PASOK, that for sure.

What about the rest of you? What party would you vote?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lasitten on May 15, 2012, 06:06:36 pm
And if I were a Greek... after "having voted" DIMAR last month (SRYZA being my 2nd option) I'd probably come back home and vote Venizelos. I used to dislike him because he seems to be as conservative as Bono in Spain and even more opportunistic, I'm beginning to believe he really cares about Greece. So, it'd be DIMAR or PASOK, that for sure.

What about the rest of you? What party would you vote?

I would vote DIMAR and hope that SYRIZA would be the biggest party and could form a coalition with PASOK and DIMAR and stay in euro.

SYRIZA would be 2nd option for me too.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 15, 2012, 06:09:23 pm
And if I were a Greek... after "having voted" DIMAR last month (SRYZA being my 2nd option) I'd probably come back home and vote Venizelos. I used to dislike him because he seems to be as conservative as Bono in Spain and even more opportunistic, I'm beginning to believe he really cares about Greece. So, it'd be DIMAR or PASOK, that for sure.


Venizelos is a corrupt, narcissistic jerk, too enamored with the sound of his voice. He is the poster boy of our bloated client state and along with his lieutenants did everything he could to undermine Papandreou and the other reform-minded ministers.

I will vote ND before I even consider to do so for PASOK as long as this demagogue is their leader.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lasitten on May 15, 2012, 06:13:52 pm
Venizelos is a corrupt, narcissistic jerk, too enamored with the sound of his voice. He is the poster boy of our bloated client state and along with his lieutenants did everything he could to undermine Papandreou and the other reform-minded ministers.

I will vote ND before I even consider to do so for PASOK as long as this demagogue is their leader.

Isn't corruption a problem with ND too?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 15, 2012, 06:32:36 pm
This nonsense can of course be stopped in ten minutes if the EU:
1) announces that it will equip itself with a real central bank (a lender of last resort) that takes all risk of sovereign default off the table — with conviction and overwhelming force, with no ifs and buts, and no ambushes from the Bundesbank.
2) announces EMU debt-pooling, fiscal union, a joint EMU budget and tax system, and an EMU government as a counterpart for the enhanced the ECB.
Funny, how they put it. I guess, what they mean by 10 minutes is several years for negotiating a new European treaty and then ratifying it by every single of the 27 or 28 states that form EU. Achieving, in the process, a radical leap towards full integration: so radical, in fact, that it is comparable to all that has been done over decades during the entire process of European integration.

Quite 10minutes :))
 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: LastVoter on May 15, 2012, 06:59:41 pm
The way things are looking for Greece it's better to exit if they don't want to deal with 10 more years of austerity, one swift default and a few months of unrest and they can go back to being a functioning tourist trap.
@ Leftbehind, much simpler solution would be equalization payments, where Germany pays a few billion to Greece each year.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 15, 2012, 08:33:59 pm
The only solution is to beat Merkel next year. That's the only real solution. But Greece (and Spain) can't wait until 2013 =S

One of the major reasons Merkel's governemt is unpopular is because German tax-payers are tired of having to bail-out Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and all other Euro-countries that can't pay their own debts. So thinking the SDP will sweep her out of power just to start handing out bail-outs for free without any demands for a tougher Greek budget is just silly. 

German politicians will serve German intrests. Just like Greek politicians will serve Greek intrests. (In their own strange ways) The leader on top really does a lot less difference than some people seem to realise.



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 15, 2012, 09:16:16 pm
The main problem isn't Greek budget, it's the fiscal policies of EU decided by Germany which are destroying the manifactural economy of Southern EU.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 15, 2012, 09:58:48 pm
The way things are looking for Greece it's better to exit if they don't want to deal with 10 more years of austerity, one swift default and a few months of unrest and they can go back to being a functioning tourist trap.

One leap off this cliff and it's all over...

Funny, how they put it. I guess, what they mean by 10 minutes is several years for negotiating a new European treaty and then ratifying it by every single of the 27 or 28 states that form EU. Achieving, in the process, a radical leap towards full integration: so radical, in fact, that it is comparable to all that has been done over decades during the entire process of European integration.

The central bank part can be done in 10 minutes.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 16, 2012, 04:16:27 am
Funny, how they put it. I guess, what they mean by 10 minutes is several years for negotiating a new European treaty and then ratifying it by every single of the 27 or 28 states that form EU. Achieving, in the process, a radical leap towards full integration: so radical, in fact, that it is comparable to all that has been done over decades during the entire process of European integration.

The central bank part can be done in 10 minutes.

You fail to understand European Law 101. The EU is not the US federal government, and does not have surpreme legislative power over its member states. According to Article 5 of the Treaty on the European Union (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:C:2008:115:0013:0045:EN:PDF) it can only create legislation within areas where it has been granted power by the national governments in a treaty. That's for example why the Union can't raise its own taxes. 


So no it couldn't be done in 10 minutes, because the current EU treaty does not allow the Union the power to create a central bank. You would need  to pass a  new treaty for it to be possible. And as pointed out by ag, it takes a few years at best, a decade if it's such controversial ideas as a European central bank.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 16, 2012, 04:59:25 am
The ECB can very well print money and act as lender of last resort, there is no need for a law to do that. The only obstacle is Germany's psychotic fear of inflation.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 16, 2012, 10:49:40 am
The ECB can very well print money and act as lender of last resort, there is no need for a law to do that. The only obstacle is Germany's psychotic fear of inflation.

If the ECB starts doing this at a scale that's going to make a difference for Greece, within a few years euro will be a currency of Greece and Greece alone :))


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 16, 2012, 12:10:35 pm
The relevant poll is on BBC. Over Monday and Tuesday Greek banks had 1.2 bln euro withdrawn (0.75% of deposits). There may well be a bank run within days (actually, this IS an early stage of the bank run, the question is if it is contained). If that happens, the political situaion is going to be changed fairly radically: god knows how, though.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: LastVoter on May 16, 2012, 12:46:44 pm
The relevant poll is on BBC. Over Monday and Tuesday Greek banks had 1.2 bln euro withdrawn (0.75% of deposits). There may well be a bank run within days (actually, this IS an early stage of the bank run, the question is if it is contained). If that happens, the political situaion is going to be changed fairly radically: god knows how, though.
So Greeks are voting for SYRIZA before voting for SYRIZA?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 16, 2012, 12:55:26 pm
I've already started withdrawing my money and sending them to Cyprus.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 16, 2012, 01:14:25 pm
The ECB can very well print money and act as lender of last resort, there is no need for a law to do that. The only obstacle is Germany's psychotic fear of inflation.
Indeed it can, and even is doing a tiny little bit in that direction - more than many of its own employees are comfortable with (huge numbers of Germans there, it's here in Frankfurt after all) or that its treaty "mandate" arguably covers. It's a sizable part of the reason why only Greece has gone totally down the drain, and not Spain, Portugal, Ireland, possibly Italy as well.

Another (esp. regarding Ireland) is obviously private lender irrationality. They speak English in Ireland, you can trust them. ;)

But seriously, the ECB is not your main enemy in all this. That's the big private investment banks. Followed by the Merkozy governments.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 16, 2012, 03:08:52 pm
Funny, how they put it. I guess, what they mean by 10 minutes is several years for negotiating a new European treaty and then ratifying it by every single of the 27 or 28 states that form EU. Achieving, in the process, a radical leap towards full integration: so radical, in fact, that it is comparable to all that has been done over decades during the entire process of European integration.

The central bank part can be done in 10 minutes.

You fail to understand European Law 101. The EU is not the US federal government, and does not have surpreme legislative power over its member states. According to Article 5 of the Treaty on the European Union (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:C:2008:115:0013:0045:EN:PDF) it can only create legislation within areas where it has been granted power by the national governments in a treaty. That's for example why the Union can't raise its own taxes. 


So no it couldn't be done in 10 minutes, because the current EU treaty does not allow the Union the power to create a central bank. You would need  to pass a  new treaty for it to be possible. And as pointed out by ag, it takes a few years at best, a decade if it's such controversial ideas as a European central bank.

Who said anything about creating a central bank? I'm talking about the ECB, which was already created. You would not need a treaty. In fact, the ability to supercede treaties and politicians within the institutional structure is the prime reason why ECB action is the only feasible solution to this.

We are not asking the ECB do anything qualitatively different than what it has already done, only quantitatively.

Third, you cannot have a currency union without a common central bank and a common monetary policy. These things ought to have been implied within the meaning of joining into a single currency.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on May 16, 2012, 03:53:29 pm
Why isn't TheNationalist/TheNazi banned yet?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 16, 2012, 03:56:45 pm
Why isn't TheNationalist/TheNazi banned yet?

Looks like mods are slow on IP checking...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 16, 2012, 04:04:55 pm
Why isn't TheNationalist/TheNazi banned yet?
Because Greece is a democracy?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 16, 2012, 05:02:25 pm
Why isn't TheNationalist/TheNazi banned yet?
Because Greece is a democracy?

We are talking of Atlas poster, on the forum.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 16, 2012, 06:54:48 pm
I've already started withdrawing my money and sending them to Cyprus.

Better send it to UK.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 16, 2012, 06:57:05 pm
I've already started withdrawing my money and sending them to Cyprus.

Better send it to UK.

Difficult. I must go in person there and open an account, and probably give proof that I have a residence there too.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 16, 2012, 07:09:48 pm
Residence? For the moment you are still in EU, aren't you? So, even if they ask for it, establishing residence shouldn't be hard.

Anyway, I still have some cash in a Spanish account - I should use it to buy stuff ASAP.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 17, 2012, 12:32:40 am
Residence? For the moment you are still in EU, aren't you? So, even if they ask for it, establishing residence shouldn't be hard.


You know the UK, they must be different in everything they do from the continent.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on May 17, 2012, 12:35:24 am
px, who did you vote for/will vote for?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 17, 2012, 12:50:41 am
px, who did you vote for/will vote for?

I mentioned before the elections that I'd vote for DISY on May 6.

This time I'll wait and see. If the first place is contested then I might be forced to hold my nose and vote for ND, just to stop those SYRIZA clowns from taking us back to the drachma.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 17, 2012, 04:32:29 am
So the new elections are scheduled for the same day as the second round of French legislatives, after the previous ones were held on the same day as the second round of the Presidential. It's a conspiracy ! ;)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 17, 2012, 04:38:52 am
June 17th is of course also the perfect date for a popular uprising against authoritarian Germans. ;D


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Iannis on May 17, 2012, 05:50:09 am
px, who did you vote for/will vote for?

I mentioned before the elections that I'd vote for DISY on May 6.

This time I'll wait and see. If the first place is contested then I might be forced to hold my nose and vote for ND, just to stop those SYRIZA clowns from taking us back to the drachma.

Well, At this point I think it's necessary to vote ND, Syiriza could really be the first party.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 17, 2012, 06:53:51 am
The ECB can very well print money and act as lender of last resort, there is no need for a law to do that. The only obstacle is Germany's psychotic fear of inflation.

If the ECB starts doing this at a scale that's going to make a difference for Greece, within a few years euro will be a currency of Greece and Greece alone :))

Yeah, just like all that quantitative easing by the Fed devalued the dollar. ::)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on May 17, 2012, 07:05:07 am
Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.
The reports I've seen seem to indicate lots of trouble for Spanish and Italian banks...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 17, 2012, 09:02:11 am
What's greek for Iatrogenesis?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Simfan34 on May 17, 2012, 09:39:49 am
What's greek for Iatrogenesis?

Probably iatrogenesis.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Simfan34 on May 17, 2012, 09:44:52 am
And what happens if these elections fail to produce a government?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on May 17, 2012, 09:52:47 am
And what happens if these elections fail to produce a government?

New Elections.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 17, 2012, 10:25:41 am
And what happens if these elections fail to produce a government?

New Elections.

European non-government practices are fairly diverse, aren't they?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 17, 2012, 12:23:49 pm
And what happens if these elections fail to produce a government?

New Elections.

European non-government practices are fairly diverse, aren't they?

I'm starting to think the Belgian model is highly preferable...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 17, 2012, 12:25:03 pm
What's greek for Iatrogenesis?

Probably iatrogenesis.

I think you missed my point there.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on May 17, 2012, 12:45:14 pm
I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now? If they turn out to be right about being able to hold Europe hostage for better terms I'd be in shock.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 17, 2012, 12:47:51 pm
I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now? If they turn out to be right about being able to hold Europe hostage for better terms I'd be in shock.

SYRIZA = Greece?

Tbh, "Greece" hasn't been winning much friends from the start of this whole crisis dealey. But neither have the other states involved indicated much desire to be friends with it.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 17, 2012, 12:49:37 pm
I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now? If they turn out to be right about being able to hold Europe hostage for better terms I'd be in shock.

Winning friends ? Why would the victim ask its torturer to become friends ?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 17, 2012, 01:04:16 pm
Where is a lot of sympathy for the Greeks from left wingers in Scandinavian countries, I would guess that the left in other European countries is also quite sympathetic to the torments of the ordinary Greeks. But maybe its just because we are generaly euro sceptics.

Even a lot of rigt wingers on the anti-EU side here in Denmark are fairly sympathetic towards the Greeks (guess you could call them ANEL symphatizers).



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on May 17, 2012, 01:05:35 pm
I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now? If they turn out to be right about being able to hold Europe hostage for better terms I'd be in shock.

Winning friends ? Why would the victim ask its torturer to become friends ?

They meant winning friends among the European masses, not the European governments.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 17, 2012, 01:15:29 pm
I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now? If they turn out to be right about being able to hold Europe hostage for better terms I'd be in shock.

Winning friends ? Why would the victim ask its torturer to become friends ?

They meant winning friends among the European masses, not the European governments.

Does it matter though ? I guess a third of European public opinion recognizes greeks as victims, a third thinks they're just lazy bastards who would are taking their money away and another third doesn't give a damn. There's not much they can do to change their image.

On the other hand, it is clear that polite requests or desperate supplications haven't convinced the neoliberal clique ruling Europe. Therefore, it's time to try something else, such as blackmailing.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 17, 2012, 01:28:42 pm
Yeah, that meanie doesn't want to give me his money...guess I should hold a gun to his head. Right, Antonio? ;)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 17, 2012, 01:57:33 pm
Yeah, that meanie doesn't want to give me his money...guess I should hold a gun to his head. Right, Antonio? ;)

I guess you know that it has never been about actually giving any money, right ?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on May 17, 2012, 02:07:27 pm
Yeah, that meanie doesn't want to give me his money...guess I should hold a gun to his head. Right, Antonio? ;)

If your countrymen continue with that line of thought, you'll be dragged into a crippling economic crisis as well, even if it's of a different sort.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 17, 2012, 03:40:11 pm
Yeah, that meanie doesn't want to give me his money...guess I should hold a gun to his head. Right, Antonio? ;)

I guess you know that it has never been about actually giving any money, right ?

If SYRIZA wins, it was a lot of money given.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 17, 2012, 05:15:37 pm
Yeah, that meanie doesn't want to give me his money...guess I should hold a gun to his head. Right, Antonio? ;)

I guess you know that it has never been about actually giving any money, right ?

If SYRIZA wins, it was a lot of money given.

Well, we wouldn't be there if the German governments didn't bullied neoliberalism on all Europe...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 17, 2012, 05:22:11 pm
Yeah, that meanie doesn't want to give me his money...guess I should hold a gun to his head. Right, Antonio? ;)

I guess you know that it has never been about actually giving any money, right ?

If SYRIZA wins, it was a lot of money given.

Well, we wouldn't be there if the German governments didn't bullied neoliberalism on all Europe...

You know, I do think you're rather simplifying this problem. I think several things happened that even made this situation possible, such as forming a common currency in the first place, not to mention the corrupt former Greek governments falsifying their data and so on to get in.



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 17, 2012, 06:07:46 pm
Yeah, that meanie doesn't want to give me his money...guess I should hold a gun to his head. Right, Antonio? ;)

I guess you know that it has never been about actually giving any money, right ?

If SYRIZA wins, it was a lot of money given.

Well, we wouldn't be there if the German governments didn't bullied neoliberalism on all Europe...

You know, I do think you're rather simplifying this problem. I think several things happened that even made this situation possible, such as forming a common currency in the first place, not to mention the corrupt former Greek governments falsifying their data and so on to get in.



I know than I'm oversimplifying things, but I think than the fight against neoliberalism is more important than all those details. It is quite possible to have Euro and to not use it for pushing neoliberalism.

As for Greeks cooking their books, that's a problem, but Greek people shouldn't be punished because their government is corrupt. Measures against corruption must be taken, in the whole of Europe, to that situation to not repeat.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 17, 2012, 10:13:04 pm
Yeah, that meanie doesn't want to give me his money...guess I should hold a gun to his head. Right, Antonio? ;)
More like, I'm starving (and penniless) because all of my money (and food) got thrown away by my drunken partner, as someone with access to my money.  A multi-millionaire landlord is walking down the street and sees me, frail, and begging for food, and he agrees to buy me a single meal as long as I pay for a lot of it by selling all of my clothes and shoes, and whatever bare essentials I have left, on a cold, winter day, to prove my "seriousness" about paying for it. 
So I'm angry that he wouldn't have more sympathy and a desire to help.  But of course, it's mainly because he lives in the same neighborhood and the value of his property (apartment buildings) is lowered by the sight of me, a frail, starving beggar, that he's actually bothering to do anything at all. 

That is a more accurate description of what Greeks are enduring at the hands of the Germans.  And I apologize in advance if I offend you or anyone else, but god, you Germans, why does it seem so hard for you to feel any compassion at all?  I expect much of this paragraph to be edited out, I know, but I mean it seriously.  I know I'm talking generally here, and I know there are plenty of exceptions but even considering the experience of hyper-inflation, why do Germans seem like the second most heartless people in the western world (with only us Americans being worse)?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 18, 2012, 12:41:21 am
Yeah, that meanie doesn't want to give me his money...guess I should hold a gun to his head. Right, Antonio? ;)

I guess you know that it has never been about actually giving any money, right ?

If SYRIZA wins, it was a lot of money given.

Well, we wouldn't be there if the German governments didn't bullied neoliberalism on all Europe...

You know, I do think you're rather simplifying this problem. I think several things happened that even made this situation possible, such as forming a common currency in the first place, not to mention the corrupt former Greek governments falsifying their data and so on to get in.



Everybody, even Germany falsified their data to get in. That's common knowledge by now.
The problem is that we continued to do so afterwards. But even then it was Merkel and Baroso who turned a blind eye to the shenanigans of their conservative pal, Karamanlis.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 18, 2012, 05:05:58 am
I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now?
Right now? They are, actually. Not a majority, obviously.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 18, 2012, 05:09:21 am
the corrupt former Greek governments falsifying their data and so on to get in.


They were effectively told to by the governments of Europe.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on May 18, 2012, 05:18:35 am
Yeah, that meanie doesn't want to give me his money...guess I should hold a gun to his head. Right, Antonio? ;)

I guess you know that it has never been about actually giving any money, right ?

If SYRIZA wins, it was a lot of money given.

Well, we wouldn't be there if the German governments didn't bullied neoliberalism on all Europe...

You know, I do think you're rather simplifying this problem. I think several things happened that even made this situation possible, such as forming a common currency in the first place, not to mention the corrupt former Greek governments falsifying their data and so on to get in.


Or such as SOME governments not giving a crap about other governments falsifying their data,because what was important was respecting the Maastricht criteria on time,so that we could get a common currency in a context that would favour only SOME countries.
Oh,btw,there is an OCSE research that demonstrates how all the European countries falsified their data in order to respect the criteria. That's the same OCSE research that Der Spiegel used a few days ago. Obviously,they used it only to attack Italy...it's clear that Monti's proposal for growth is not liked by someone over there.

Also,how come nobody mentions the fact that the limits imposed by the Stability and Growth Pact were not respected by GERMANY AND FRANCE, and that the European Council of Ministers decided not to sanction them,and that the European Court of Justice afterwards imposed a reform of the pact,otherwise the sanctions had to be applied?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on May 18, 2012, 05:40:35 am
I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now?
Right now? They are, actually. Not a majority, obviously.

If anything it's Germany that's making itself lose some popularity abroad.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ingemann on May 18, 2012, 09:32:41 am
I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now?
Right now? They are, actually. Not a majority, obviously.

If anything it's Germany that's making itself lose some popularity abroad.

Maybe down south, but up here, I haven't meet anybody with much sympathy for the Greeks, and no it's not "those lazy South European" kind of thing, there are significant sympathy for the Iberians. And before you ask most people I deal with are working class and lower middle class.
Most people understand why the Germans don't want to send money to the bottomless hole which is Greece, even the people who disagree with the austerity policies.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 18, 2012, 09:44:12 am
I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now?
Right now? They are, actually. Not a majority, obviously.

If anything it's Germany that's making itself lose some popularity abroad.

Maybe down south, but up here, I haven't meet anybody with much sympathy for the Greeks, and no it's not "those lazy South European" kind of thing, there are significant sympathy for the Iberians. And before you ask most people I deal with are working class and lower middle class.
Most people understand why the Germans don't want to send money to the bottomless hole which is Greece, even the people who disagree with the austerity policies.

What is happening to Greece is quantitatively, not qualitatively different to what is happening in other South European countries.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ingemann on May 18, 2012, 10:13:48 am
I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now?
Right now? They are, actually. Not a majority, obviously.

If anything it's Germany that's making itself lose some popularity abroad.

Maybe down south, but up here, I haven't meet anybody with much sympathy for the Greeks, and no it's not "those lazy South European" kind of thing, there are significant sympathy for the Iberians. And before you ask most people I deal with are working class and lower middle class.
Most people understand why the Germans don't want to send money to the bottomless hole which is Greece, even the people who disagree with the austerity policies.

What is happening to Greece is quantitatively, not qualitatively different to what is happening in other South European countries.

I disagree, the reason for the trouble in the different country are quite distinct. If you look at Spain and Portugal, it's too large extent the banks, which has pulled the economy into a recession, while in Greece it's the state. which has pulled the banks down with them. The Greek state has shown a degree of mismanagement which would be funny if it wasn't so tragic. The Greek state has shown it unwilling to collect taxes, something which isn't similar in Spain nor Portugal, which both collect their taxes. Greece also have a degree of clientism almost unheard off in EU15. I find it completely unfair and insulting to the Spaniards and Portugeese to compare their states with Greece.
Why do I not compare Italy with Greece, because Italy have many of the same problems, but at the same time Italy do have the benefit of having a functioning industry and export sector, and the degree of clientism and tax evasion in Italy is significant lower.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 18, 2012, 10:36:14 am
Of course, I don't mean all southern countries have the same strural problems Greece has. But at this point, structural issues internal to countries don't matter anymore. Spain is roughly in the situation Greece was one or two years ago, and Italy might be in the situation Greece was two or three years ago. The problem here does not lie in the inefficiency of the Greek State (even though this is also a problem which ought to be solved, it is not the core issue), it lies in the fact that we have a common currency which isn't backed by a common borrowing system, something which just isn't viable. It lies in the unwillingness of Germany and other "virtuous" countries to "pay for" other countries (even though, at the end of the day, the effects would be positive for these countries as well). This system just cannot work. Therefore, the solutions are two : either the Eurozone disbands, or we finally create these goddamned EuroBonds.

And as a side note, I find it extremely unfair to blame the entire Greek people for the corruption and general inefficiency of their institutions, and making it "pay the price for it".


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Iannis on May 18, 2012, 10:55:29 am
Yeah, that meanie doesn't want to give me his money...guess I should hold a gun to his head. Right, Antonio? ;)

I guess you know that it has never been about actually giving any money, right ?

If SYRIZA wins, it was a lot of money given.

Well, we wouldn't be there if the German governments didn't bullied neoliberalism on all Europe...

Neoliberalism? Funny, They canceled 140 billion debt, owed to european banks, so neoliberal.. they are only asking not to do new debt, actually, the consequence is that Greece will have the development that its industry and productivity allow, nothing special. Too bad that the productivty is at balkanic levels, but this is not german fault of course.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 18, 2012, 10:59:34 am
No, if that's any foreign power's fault it's British and American. And holidaymakers', so I guess Germany is right back in the boat. ;D


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 18, 2012, 11:17:59 am
Antonio,

The Greeks have voted in elections for over 35 years now and been member of EU since early eighties. How on earth are they not responsible for their government, or are there systematic election fraud that I am not aware of.

Even if people do vote for corrupt politicians, and even if a significant share of the population has probably benefitted from or taken part to corruption, it is still absurd to hold people directly responsible for it. These kind of systems, once established (and their establishment itself generally comes from inherent societal factors), create dependences which make them very hard to break up.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass! on May 18, 2012, 11:53:11 am
Even if people do vote for corrupt politicians, and even if a significant share of the population has probably benefitted from or taken part to corruption, it is still absurd to hold people directly responsible for it. These kind of systems, once established (and their establishment itself generally comes from inherent societal factors), create dependences which make them very hard to break up.
This is true but irrelevant. It is always the citizens of a country that suffer the consequences of it's incompotence... even places like North Korea. If the North Koreans are to suffer for the incompetence of their horrible regime, I feel no pity for Greeks suffering the consequences of incompotence by their elected government.

Sure innate structural factors that the Greeks did not choose are responsible. You can say the same thing when it comes to individuals... is the serial killer to blame for possessing a neurology or suffering an upbringing that primed to murder people? No, nonetheless we punish him because no quantity of philosophy can overrule the iron law of society: people and groups are responsible for their actions.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 18, 2012, 12:03:48 pm
Even if people do vote for corrupt politicians, and even if a significant share of the population has probably benefitted from or taken part to corruption, it is still absurd to hold people directly responsible for it. These kind of systems, once established (and their establishment itself generally comes from inherent societal factors), create dependences which make them very hard to break up.
This is true but irrelevant. It is always the citizens of a country that suffer the consequences of it's incompotence... even places like North Korea. If the North Koreans are to suffer for the incompetence of their horrible regime, I feel no pity for Greeks suffering the consequences of incompotence by their elected government.

Sure innate structural factors that the Greeks did not choose are responsible. You can say the same thing when it comes to individuals... is the serial killer to blame for possessing a neurology or suffering an upbringing that primed to murder people? No, nonetheless we punish him because no quantity of philosophy can overrule the iron law of society: people and groups are responsible for their actions.

If we spent less time "punishing" people, and more time trying to fix what's wrong with societies or institutions, human progress would be so much quicker.

And even if the Greeks had deserved a "punishment", I think anybody with a tad of common sense and who isn't an utter hypocrite can agree that they have suffered more than enough for their "sins".


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ingemann on May 18, 2012, 12:32:09 pm
Of course, I don't mean all southern countries have the same strural problems Greece has. But at this point, structural issues internal to countries don't matter anymore. Spain is roughly in the situation Greece was one or two years ago, and Italy might be in the situation Greece was two or three years ago. The problem here does not lie in the inefficiency of the Greek State (even though this is also a problem which ought to be solved, it is not the core issue), it lies in the fact that we have a common currency which isn't backed by a common borrowing system, something which just isn't viable. It lies in the unwillingness of Germany and other "virtuous" countries to "pay for" other countries (even though, at the end of the day, the effects would be positive for these countries as well). This system just cannot work. Therefore, the solutions are two : either the Eurozone disbands, or we finally create these goddamned EuroBonds.

And as a side note, I find it extremely unfair to blame the entire Greek people for the corruption and general inefficiency of their institutions, and making it "pay the price for it".

It has nothing to do with virtuous, but everything with being able to explain their voters why they need to support the other countries. It would be a death of kiss for any government which send a fortune to Greece, only for the national media bringing the news that the the Greeks continued their existing dysfunctional behaviour.
In fact I'm going to be pensioned when I'm between 70-72, I pay a marginal tax of 40% (and I'm working class), it's really hard for any government to explain to my kind of people, that we have to pay to Greeks among whom 6 out of 10 don't pay income tax, who is able to go on pension at 55 (50 for women), while at the same time we're pushing internal austerity. It's not a popular issue among the electorate, which is the most important reason the northern countries has pushed austerity on the southern countries, they needed a internal excuse to help. Or at least it were at first, the Greek continued abyssal behaviour, have spiraled it all out of control to the point where we are now, where bailing the Greeks out would be political suicide for Merkel or any other German government.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 18, 2012, 01:19:37 pm
It has nothing to do with virtuous, but everything with being able to explain their voters why they need to support the other countries. It would be a death of kiss for any government which send a fortune to Greece, only for the national media bringing the news that the the Greeks continued their existing dysfunctional behaviour.

Maybe "either we do this or we are all screwed" might be a decent explanation. Considering European leaders have contributed to spreading the delusion according to which since 2009 they have made enormous sacrifices to help Greece, and by pure generosity (whereas, in fact, they have done almost nothing and the little they have done was to avoid economic disaster in the eurozone as a whole), they bear a lot of responsibility in the state of public opinions.


Quote
In fact I'm going to be pensioned when I'm between 70-72, I pay a marginal tax of 40% (and I'm working class), it's really hard for any government to explain to my kind of people, that we have to pay to Greeks among whom 6 out of 10 don't pay income tax, who is able to go on pension at 55 (50 for women), while at the same time we're pushing internal austerity.

So, you're a working class Dane. Tell me, would you trade your economic situation for that of a working class Greek ? Do you think he's better off than you right now ? Do you think he will be better of at the end of his life ? AFAIK, considering the wage cuts, the dismantlement of welfare State Merkel&co have imposed to Greece and the massive recession the country is enduring and will probably endure in the next decade at least, I'm not sure you would gain much from this trade-off.


Quote
It's not a popular issue among the electorate, which is the most important reason the northern countries has pushed austerity on the southern countries, they needed a internal excuse to help.

Which is pretty damn stupid, considering austerity is part of the problem : it has ruined any chance of economic recovery, pushed Europe back into recession, and the most ridiculous of all is that it actually increases deficits. An excellent idea, really.


Quote
Or at least it were at first, the Greek continued abyssal behaviour, have spiraled it all out of control to the point where we are now, where bailing the Greeks out would be political suicide for Merkel or any other German government.

::)

Now I really don't get it. How exactly are the Greeks responsible for the evolution of their country since 2009 ? All they have done since has basically been imposed by the Troika/Merkozy, so, if you have to blame someone, don't look at poor Papandreou...

Of course it would be beneficial to all (Greeks comprised) if corruption suddenly ceased and Greece became a perfect country like the scandinavians. We all wish that. However, I can't believe you are naive enough to think all this could be done in a trice. Structural reforms take time. They can take a full generation to produce their effects. And, above all, there is zero chance to see a diminution of corruption and illegality in a situation of economic depression. When people are desperate, there is no chance they will make an effort to pay their taxes or wouldn't try to bribe the local civil servant for an advantage. So, by pushing Grece into destitution, you paladines of austerity not really helping.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 18, 2012, 01:50:05 pm
OK, I won't respond to any more post which contain "why should we pay". Now I'm sick of this mind-numbed rhetoric.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 18, 2012, 01:55:05 pm
OK, I won't respond to any more post which contain "why should we pay". Now I'm sick of this mind-numbed rhetoric.

Well but it's true. You don't seem to have much respect for what belings to people (including collectively as a country). You can argue and debate what is in the best interest of all participants, but you act like Spain, Greece, whoever else have a right to German, Austrian and Finnish money. Whatever your beliefs on the Euro crisis, we are talking about sovereign countries. What you're suggesting is comparable, in principle, to saying Niger has a right to receive money from Europe because their people live in poverty (which, morally at least, is much more understandable and worthy of support.)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 18, 2012, 01:59:17 pm
Even if we suppose that Greece deserves all the punishment it gets, why are the Germans imposing the same punishment on countries like Ireland and Spain which were examples of fiscal prudence until 2008?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 18, 2012, 02:01:51 pm
OK, I won't respond to any more post which contain "why should we pay". Now I'm sick of this mind-numbed rhetoric.

Well but it's true. You don't seem to have much respect for what belings to people (including collectively as a country). You can argue and debate what is in the best interest of all participants, but you act like Spain, Greece, whoever else have a right to German, Austrian and Finnish money. Whatever your beliefs on the Euro crisis, we are talking about sovereign countries. What you're suggesting is comparable, in principle, to saying Niger has a right to receive money from Europe because their people live in poverty (which, morally at least, is much more understandable and worthy of support.)

This is not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that there are two options : either we accept the idea of a common currency, with everything it entails (including eurobonds), or we definitely settle on the old-fashioned selfish nationalist logic with everything it entails (ie abandoning Euro). Both these choices are absolutely legitimate (even though I think the second would be an economic suicide). All what I want is some consistency in reasoning.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 18, 2012, 02:05:08 pm
Even if we suppose that Greece deserves all the punishment it gets, why are the Germans imposing the same punishment on countries like Ireland and Spain which were examples of fiscal prudence until 2008?

I'm not using the word punishment at all. I don't think the Greek deserve punishment , as if they were children being sent to their rooms for misbehaving.

I think we've gotten ourselves into a project that doesn't work. The financial and economic abilities of the member states are simply too great to overcome, and we can basically say that there are contradictory interests here. It appears to me that policies that would benefit the Southern countries would invariably disadvantage the Northern ones....and the other way around.



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 18, 2012, 02:44:20 pm
There's a question as to how you measure whether a more economically prosperous entity benefits or not from being in a currency, fiscal, or political union with less prosperous entities. I mean, if you add up the total transfers to and from the US state of New York in it's history, surely transfers out of New York dwarf transfers into New York. So then does it mean New York has not benefitted from being a member of the United States? It's benefitted tremendously because it made Wall Street the nexus of the world's largest economy, and Ellis Island the gateway to a continent. Similarly, there are intangible benefits to Germany of being in the eurozone. Besides helping the competitiveness of German manufactures and the like. It makes Frankfurt the nexus of a potential economic superpower. It puts German institutions at the forefront of a continent of people much larger than Germany. Over time, this could draw power, influence, and capital into Germany itself, more than would occur if Germany was on its own. We're already seeing it. Arguably, Angela Merkel is the most powerful Chancellor in German history.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 18, 2012, 02:52:11 pm
OK, I won't respond to any more post which contain "why should we pay". Now I'm sick of this mind-numbed rhetoric.

It's not rhetoric: it's the essence of things. And you'd better understand that.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 18, 2012, 02:56:25 pm
Even if we suppose that Greece deserves all the punishment it gets, why are the Germans imposing the same punishment on countries like Ireland and Spain which were examples of fiscal prudence until 2008?

Germany is not imposing a punishment on anyone - not even on Greece. The issue is not punishment - the issue is, Greece cannot stay in euro (unless of course, everybody else leaves). If you really need a hate figure, it should not be Merkel, but Papademos - wasn't it him, who engineered Greek joining the euro back in the day?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 18, 2012, 02:56:46 pm
OK, I won't respond to any more post which contain "why should we pay". Now I'm sick of this mind-numbed rhetoric.

It's not rhetoric: it's the essence of things. And you'd better understand that.

::)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 18, 2012, 02:58:10 pm
This is not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that there are two options : either we accept the idea of a common currency, with everything it entails (including eurobonds), or we definitely settle on the old-fashioned selfish nationalist logic with everything it entails (ie abandoning Euro). Both these choices are absolutely legitimate (even though I think the second would be an economic suicide). All what I want is some consistency in reasoning.

The idea of the common european currency entails not merely eurobonds, but a european government responsible to a european parliament that has direct taxation authority over the european population. Unless you are willing to share you real president with the German voters, you aren't accepting what a common currency entails.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 18, 2012, 03:01:32 pm
Even if we suppose that Greece deserves all the punishment it gets, why are the Germans imposing the same punishment on countries like Ireland and Spain which were examples of fiscal prudence until 2008?

Germany is not imposing a punishment on anyone - not even on Greece.

Yes she does. Merkel said as much to Papandreou when he asked for a more lenient program back in 2010. Go read the WSJ article from a couple of days ago.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 18, 2012, 03:15:20 pm
This is not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that there are two options : either we accept the idea of a common currency, with everything it entails (including eurobonds), or we definitely settle on the old-fashioned selfish nationalist logic with everything it entails (ie abandoning Euro). Both these choices are absolutely legitimate (even though I think the second would be an economic suicide). All what I want is some consistency in reasoning.

The idea of the common european currency entails not merely eurobonds, but a european government responsible to a european parliament that has direct taxation authority over the european population. Unless you are willing to share you real president with the German voters, you aren't accepting what a common currency entails.

You are absolutely right, I couldn't agree more. All this is what should come next. But you can't do everything at once. The next step is Eurobonds, then something else, etc. until we have a complete European Federation.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 18, 2012, 03:24:26 pm
This is not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that there are two options : either we accept the idea of a common currency, with everything it entails (including eurobonds), or we definitely settle on the old-fashioned selfish nationalist logic with everything it entails (ie abandoning Euro). Both these choices are absolutely legitimate (even though I think the second would be an economic suicide). All what I want is some consistency in reasoning.

The idea of the common European currency entails not merely eurobonds, but a European government responsible to a European parliament that has direct taxation authority over the European population. Unless you are willing to share you real president with the German voters, you aren't accepting what a common currency entails.

You are absolutely right, I couldn't agree more. All this is what should come next. But you can't do everything at once. The next step is Eurobonds, then something else, etc. until we have a complete European Federation.
But a large number of European states, especially in the east and north, doesn't want that, so you would need to split the present EU before you could get that far, which is a cumbersome process. Furthermore you would have to create a new structure for cooperation between the European Federation and the rest of the old EU (including several states from the Euro zone). I just cant see how this can be accomplished. Especially in the middle of an economic crisis.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 18, 2012, 03:34:40 pm
This is not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that there are two options : either we accept the idea of a common currency, with everything it entails (including eurobonds), or we definitely settle on the old-fashioned selfish nationalist logic with everything it entails (ie abandoning Euro). Both these choices are absolutely legitimate (even though I think the second would be an economic suicide). All what I want is some consistency in reasoning.

The idea of the common European currency entails not merely eurobonds, but a European government responsible to a European parliament that has direct taxation authority over the European population. Unless you are willing to share you real president with the German voters, you aren't accepting what a common currency entails.

You are absolutely right, I couldn't agree more. All this is what should come next. But you can't do everything at once. The next step is Eurobonds, then something else, etc. until we have a complete European Federation.
But a large number of European states, especially in the east and north, doesn't want that, so you would need to split the present EU before you could get that far, which is a cumbersome process. Furthermore you would have to create a new structure for cooperation between the European Federation and the rest of the old EU (including several states from the Euro zone). I just cant see how this can be accomplished. Especially in the middle of an economic crisis.

It will take time. Maybe an entire century... But I want to believe this is what we are heading to, because all the other outcomes I can think of are despairingly bleak.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Nhoj on May 18, 2012, 04:42:33 pm
Isn't one of the rules for this board, not having these kind of discussions here?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Zuza on May 18, 2012, 05:28:46 pm
For the first time since 6 May elections, one poll (Marc/Alpha) indicate ND lead with 23.1 % (SYRIZA 21 %). ND and PASOK combined would get 164 seats. Can they form coalition in case of such election result?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 18, 2012, 05:51:27 pm
For the first time since 6 May elections, one poll (Marc/Alpha) indicate ND lead with 23.1 % (SYRIZA 21 %). ND and PASOK combined would get 164 seats. Can they form coalition in case of such election result?

Yeah, 151 seats gets them a majority of 1.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 18, 2012, 06:32:52 pm
Isn't one of the rules for this board, not having these kind of discussions here?

It's not exactly banned, but is certainly heavily discouraged. Hard to really stop it in a thread about Greece, though.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 18, 2012, 07:06:51 pm

You are absolutely right, I couldn't agree more. All this is what should come next. But you can't do everything at once. The next step is Eurobonds, then something else, etc. until we have a complete European Federation.

Fine - if you can persuade the other Europeans :) But the common currency will naturally come after you have all that - not before. That's the problem: they put the cart ahead of the horse, so the whole things is imploding.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 19, 2012, 04:18:35 am
Political union of that kind is dead. It's been killed, partially on purpose, over the past decade.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 19, 2012, 05:08:50 am
Political union of that kind is dead. It's been killed, partially on purpose, over the past decade.

It has been extremely weakened, but I don't think it's dead. I can't believe the only idea that can avoid the inexorable decline of Europe is dead. If I believed that, I'd give up on politics outright.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Iannis on May 19, 2012, 05:32:53 am
This is not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that there are two options : either we accept the idea of a common currency, with everything it entails (including eurobonds), or we definitely settle on the old-fashioned selfish nationalist logic with everything it entails (ie abandoning Euro). Both these choices are absolutely legitimate (even though I think the second would be an economic suicide). All what I want is some consistency in reasoning.

The idea of the common european currency entails not merely eurobonds, but a european government responsible to a european parliament that has direct taxation authority over the european population. Unless you are willing to share you real president with the German voters, you aren't accepting what a common currency entails.

You are absolutely right, I couldn't agree more. All this is what should come next. But you can't do everything at once. The next step is Eurobonds, then something else, etc. until we have a complete European Federation.

No no, it must be done in the SAME moment, or better, first a unique fiscal authorithy with a control on any expense of any state in cluding Greece, and THEN the eurobond as a consequence. This implies that laws about greek pensions, for instance, are not anymore possible, not with money of fiscal disciplined peopleo of Germany, Austria, Finland, Netherlands, Northern Italy.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on May 19, 2012, 06:27:55 am
This is not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that there are two options : either we accept the idea of a common currency, with everything it entails (including eurobonds), or we definitely settle on the old-fashioned selfish nationalist logic with everything it entails (ie abandoning Euro). Both these choices are absolutely legitimate (even though I think the second would be an economic suicide). All what I want is some consistency in reasoning.

The idea of the common european currency entails not merely eurobonds, but a european government responsible to a european parliament that has direct taxation authority over the european population. Unless you are willing to share you real president with the German voters, you aren't accepting what a common currency entails.

You are absolutely right, I couldn't agree more. All this is what should come next. But you can't do everything at once. The next step is Eurobonds, then something else, etc. until we have a complete European Federation.

No no, it must be done in the SAME moment, or better, first a unique fiscal authorithy with a control on any expense of any state in cluding Greece, and THEN the eurobond as a consequence. This implies that laws about greek pensions, for instance, are not anymore possible, not with money of fiscal disciplined peopleo of Germany, Austria, Finland, Netherlands, Northern Italy.
Ahah yeah sure,the same "fiscal disciplined people of Northern Italy" who have ridicolous tax evasion rates.
Please...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Iannis on May 19, 2012, 07:19:41 am
This is not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that there are two options : either we accept the idea of a common currency, with everything it entails (including eurobonds), or we definitely settle on the old-fashioned selfish nationalist logic with everything it entails (ie abandoning Euro). Both these choices are absolutely legitimate (even though I think the second would be an economic suicide). All what I want is some consistency in reasoning.

The idea of the common european currency entails not merely eurobonds, but a european government responsible to a european parliament that has direct taxation authority over the european population. Unless you are willing to share you real president with the German voters, you aren't accepting what a common currency entails.

You are absolutely right, I couldn't agree more. All this is what should come next. But you can't do everything at once. The next step is Eurobonds, then something else, etc. until we have a complete European Federation.

No no, it must be done in the SAME moment, or better, first a unique fiscal authorithy with a control on any expense of any state in cluding Greece, and THEN the eurobond as a consequence. This implies that laws about greek pensions, for instance, are not anymore possible, not with money of fiscal disciplined peopleo of Germany, Austria, Finland, Netherlands, Northern Italy.
Ahah yeah sure,the same "fiscal disciplined people of Northern Italy" who have ridicolous tax evasion rates.
Please...

It's one of the lowest rate in europe, the same of Germany or Finland, as hugely demonstrated many and many times


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on May 19, 2012, 09:02:30 am
If a "fiscal union" is created for the purpose not of clamping down on profligacy but using German/Germanic credit quality to increase it, then 3-7 years later we'd be talking about the entire-EU debt crisis.  While such an event would undoubtedly be hilarious in several ways, it would probably provoke a worldwide depression.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on May 19, 2012, 10:00:48 am
This is not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that there are two options : either we accept the idea of a common currency, with everything it entails (including eurobonds), or we definitely settle on the old-fashioned selfish nationalist logic with everything it entails (ie abandoning Euro). Both these choices are absolutely legitimate (even though I think the second would be an economic suicide). All what I want is some consistency in reasoning.

The idea of the common european currency entails not merely eurobonds, but a european government responsible to a european parliament that has direct taxation authority over the european population. Unless you are willing to share you real president with the German voters, you aren't accepting what a common currency entails.

You are absolutely right, I couldn't agree more. All this is what should come next. But you can't do everything at once. The next step is Eurobonds, then something else, etc. until we have a complete European Federation.

No no, it must be done in the SAME moment, or better, first a unique fiscal authorithy with a control on any expense of any state in cluding Greece, and THEN the eurobond as a consequence. This implies that laws about greek pensions, for instance, are not anymore possible, not with money of fiscal disciplined peopleo of Germany, Austria, Finland, Netherlands, Northern Italy.
Ahah yeah sure,the same "fiscal disciplined people of Northern Italy" who have ridicolous tax evasion rates.
Please...

It's one of the lowest rate in europe, the same of Germany or Finland, as hugely demonstrated many and many times
(http://onthenord.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/evasione_regionali.jpg)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 19, 2012, 10:05:42 am
That image does show Northern Italy as a low evasion zone.

Of course, whoever counted? Whoever defined evasion? Heck, whoever claimed Germany was a low tax evasion country? ???


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on May 19, 2012, 10:07:55 am
That image does show Northern Italy as a low evasion zone.

Of course, whoever counted? Whoever defined evasion? Heck, whoever claimed Germany was a low tax evasion country? ???
If you look at the bottom,it shows how the amount of money evaded in the North is larger than that of the rest of Italy combined...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 19, 2012, 10:20:40 am
That image does show Northern Italy as a low evasion zone.

Of course, whoever counted? Whoever defined evasion? Heck, whoever claimed Germany was a low tax evasion country? ???
If you look at the bottom,it shows how the amount of money evaded in the North is larger than that of the rest of Italy combined...

That's a rather dishonest way of comparing, you know.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 19, 2012, 10:29:26 am
That image does show Northern Italy as a low evasion zone.

Of course, whoever counted? Whoever defined evasion? Heck, whoever claimed Germany was a low tax evasion country? ???
If you look at the bottom,it shows how the amount of money evaded in the North is larger than that of the rest of Italy combined...
The text at the bottom seems to claim something completely different than the map does. ???


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 19, 2012, 10:34:24 am
Well, the south evades more, but the South is way poorer than the North.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on May 19, 2012, 10:34:42 am
That image does show Northern Italy as a low evasion zone.

Of course, whoever counted? Whoever defined evasion? Heck, whoever claimed Germany was a low tax evasion country? ???
If you look at the bottom,it shows how the amount of money evaded in the North is larger than that of the rest of Italy combined...

That's a rather dishonest way of comparing, you know.
It would be if I were trying to prove that the evasion in the South is lower.

All I am trying to say is that the North is no paradise.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 19, 2012, 06:55:25 pm
The South is persecuted once again.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on May 19, 2012, 06:58:15 pm
The South is persecuted once again.

Phil, what are your thoughts on Giuseppe Garibaldi?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 19, 2012, 07:49:46 pm
The South is persecuted once again.

Phil, what are your thoughts on Giuseppe Garibaldi?

Love him, of course. I'm proud of my southern roots and don't like when others beat up on the South but I obviously support Italian nationalism.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on May 19, 2012, 10:38:22 pm
The South is persecuted once again.

Phil, what are your thoughts on Giuseppe Garibaldi?

Love him, of course. I'm proud of my southern roots and don't like when others beat up on the South but I obviously support Italian nationalism.

Same here. I have ancestors from the Two Sicilies and ancestors from Milan and I'm proud of my roots with both sets, for some similar and some different reasons.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 20, 2012, 06:23:57 am
Four new polls out today. Two of them show SYRIZA ahead and the other two ND. PASOK is on the rise too, the smaller parties fade. This is going to be a polarizing election.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Gustaf on May 20, 2012, 06:30:42 am
Four new polls out today. Two of them show SYRIZA ahead and the other two ND. PASOK is on the rise too, the smaller parties fade. This is going to be a polarizing election.

Oh! May we ask for full poll results?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 20, 2012, 10:43:48 am
(http://images.watchit.gr/?h=337&w=600&src=http://www.newsit.gr/files/Image/2012/05/19/realdhmosk.jpg)

(http://images.watchit.gr/?h=341&w=600&src=http://www.newsit.gr/files/Image/2012/05/19/protothemadhmo.jpg)

(http://images.watchit.gr/?h=348&w=600&src=http://www.newsit.gr/files/Image/2012/05/19/protagondhmo.jpg)

And Public Issue's poll:

SYRIZA 28%
ΝD        24%
PASOK 15%
ΑNEL      8%
DIMAR     7%
KKE        5%
XA          4,5
DIMIOURGIA XANA 3%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on May 20, 2012, 10:51:07 am
Greece increasingly reminds me of that guy in that Scary Movie clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rMpCud1IwQ


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 20, 2012, 11:37:24 am
Four new polls out today. Two of them show SYRIZA ahead and the other two ND. PASOK is on the rise too, the smaller parties fade. This is going to be a polarizing election.

Good. This, actually, might give Greece a government.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: argentarius on May 20, 2012, 11:45:59 am
How are LAOS doing?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 20, 2012, 11:49:44 am
What is dimiourga xana ?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 20, 2012, 11:55:28 am

Goddamnit, another nazi party ? *__*


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Great Again: Roy Moore's Handmaid's Tale on May 20, 2012, 12:16:47 pm
^^

According to Wikipedia, Dimiourgia Xana ("Recreate Greece") is a pro-European centre-right party.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recreate_Greece


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 20, 2012, 12:22:01 pm
What is dimiourga xana ?

A Neo-liberal party. It was founded recently by a businessman. You won't like it a bit.

How are LAOS doing?

Terribly.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on May 20, 2012, 12:25:53 pm
Do you think that the neo-liberals will coalesce behind one party? DISY and DRASI haven't been registering support in the last few polls while Recreate Greece is performing slightly better than their electoral support, which was a clear over-performance considering they were founded a few months ago.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 20, 2012, 12:32:49 pm
Do you think that the neo-liberals will coalesce behind one party? DISY and DRASI haven't been registering support in the last few polls while Recreate Greece is performing slightly better than their electoral support, which was a clear over-performance considering they were founded a few months ago.

Conservatives are already coalescing behind ND to stop SYRIZA. DISY's president Dora Bakoyianni is close to a deal with Samaras and DRASI will probably abstain from this election.
LAOS, ANEL and XA have also seen their numbers come down sharply as their voters are simply terrified after what they have seen and heard till now by the members of SYRIZA.

PASOK is also registering a slight uptick, probably old voters who stayed out on May 6 or voted for SYRIZA, DIMAR and KKE.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 20, 2012, 12:45:59 pm
Let's hope for a SYRIZA-ANEL-DIMAR coalition.  SYRIZA-DIMAR seems unlikely at this point, but either way, it be the perfect middle finger to Merkel (let's hope Hollande sides with Greece if this government is the case.)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ingemann on May 20, 2012, 12:51:51 pm
Let's hope for a SYRIZA-ANEL-DIMAR coalition.  SYRIZA-DIMAR seems unlikely at this point, but either way, it be the perfect middle finger to Merkel (let's hope Hollande sides with Greece if this government is the case.)

Yes for the Greeks to hang themselves is the best way to spite Merkel.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 20, 2012, 02:02:38 pm
I'm sure ANEL support is also going to SYRIZA, given their closeness to the bonus.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 20, 2012, 02:06:08 pm
Let's hope for a SYRIZA-ANEL-DIMAR coalition.  SYRIZA-DIMAR seems unlikely at this point, but either way, it be the perfect middle finger to Merkel (let's hope Hollande sides with Greece if this government is the case.)
Yes for the Greeks to hang themselves is the best way to spite Merkel.

^^^^^

Really, voting out of 'spite' is about the worst thing that Greeks can do at this point.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on May 20, 2012, 02:07:42 pm
Let's hope for a SYRIZA-ANEL-DIMAR coalition.  SYRIZA-DIMAR seems unlikely at this point, but either way, it be the perfect middle finger to Merkel (let's hope Hollande sides with Greece if this government is the case.)

Yes for the Greeks to hang themselves is the best way to spite Merkel.

I don't want to intervene in this debate... but I'll hang my colours to the mast with this. As much as telling Merkie to go f- herself would be fun, the results would be terrible for Greece and for Europe as a whole.

If I were Greek, I'd probably hold my nose and vote ND at this point. They're a terrible party, but I'm not one to join on Tsipras' bandwagon. That guy is a tool and/or moron.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 20, 2012, 02:08:13 pm
I am sorry. I didn't mean Nazis in the literal sense. Just that they are a horrible party ;)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ingemann on May 20, 2012, 02:16:58 pm
Let's hope for a SYRIZA-ANEL-DIMAR coalition.  SYRIZA-DIMAR seems unlikely at this point, but either way, it be the perfect middle finger to Merkel (let's hope Hollande sides with Greece if this government is the case.)

Yes for the Greeks to hang themselves is the best way to spite Merkel.

I don't want to intervene in this debate... but I'll hang my colours to the mast with this. As much as telling Merkie to go f- herself would be fun, the results would be terrible for Greece and for Europe as a whole.

If I were Greek, I'd probably hold my nose and vote ND at this point. They're a terrible party, but I'm not one to join on Tsipras' bandwagon. That guy is a tool and/or moron.

I agree, and in fact there may be a bonus, ND may discredit itself to the same point as PASOK did, which mean both ND and PASOK get to clean up after themself, and at the same time the Greeks get rid of these two parties as the only major forces in Greek politic. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 20, 2012, 02:17:39 pm
I am sorry. I didn't mean Nazis in the literal sense. Just that they are a horrible party ;)

Yeah, after we got to know Golden Dawn, one should be much more careful in using the word. ;)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ObserverIE on May 20, 2012, 02:26:35 pm

Merkel fanboys (http://dimiourgiaxana.gr/intl/index.php/en/speeches-a-articles/196-letter-to-merkel) who want to ban public demonstrations (http://dimiourgiaxana.gr/intl/index.php/en/trade-unions) and sound as if they'd rather like to ban the KKE (http://dimiourgiaxana.gr/intl/index.php/en/2011-11-02-20-09-43).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 20, 2012, 02:41:30 pm
Merkel fanboys (http://dimiourgiaxana.gr/intl/index.php/en/speeches-a-articles/196-letter-to-merkel)

LOL masochists LOL


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 20, 2012, 04:09:45 pm
I've taken a look at the polls so far; here's a bit of analysis:

  • I don't think you can really conclude that PASOK is rising. Their differing results appears to mostly be pollsters' different methodologies being applied. All three firms that have released two polls in the last two weeks all show PASOK essentially stable. So, while no poll agrees on how well PASOK is actually polling, it appears to be statistical noise rather than anything else.
  • SYRIZA is definitely up from their result in May. The different methodologies, however, muddle one from seeing whatever trend exists. The two firms that had them in the high twenties a week ago are showing big declines now, while if you exclude those results there appears to be a steady increase from 20% to around 22% for SYRIZA.
  • I have no idea what's going on with ND. Marc/Alpha is showing them up 2.8% while Metron is showing them down 2%, in pretty much the same time frame. All pollsters generally agree that ND is polling somewhere around 22% though, plus or minus a couple of points; their results are definitely more stable between pollsters than most other parties (especially SYRIZA).
  • ANEL and KKE are definitely losing support. This is notable because pretty much everyone overestimated KKE in the May polls.
  • XA is certainly losing support, but I worry that there might be some sort of "shy Nazi" effect, where some prospective Golden Dawn voters don't want to admit who they support to a random phone caller. I wish I could read Greek to really look into this; I'd love to see if there's a disparity in Golden Dawn support between live-call and automated pollsters.
  • Remember that in May pretty much every pollster significantly overestimated ND and PASOK, while seriously underestimating SYRIZA. I assume they've all corrected the way they assign undecideds now, but I have no actual evidence of that (again, I wish I could read Greek! :P).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ObserverIE on May 20, 2012, 04:51:15 pm
Merkel fanboys (http://dimiourgiaxana.gr/intl/index.php/en/speeches-a-articles/196-letter-to-merkel)

LOL masochists LOL

Not necessarily masochists. There are plenty of enthusiasts for swingeing austerity who believe that swingeing austerity will principally affect others and not themselves.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Iannis on May 20, 2012, 05:03:43 pm

Merkel fanboys (http://dimiourgiaxana.gr/intl/index.php/en/speeches-a-articles/196-letter-to-merkel) who want to ban public demonstrations (http://dimiourgiaxana.gr/intl/index.php/en/trade-unions) and sound as if they'd rather like to ban the KKE (http://dimiourgiaxana.gr/intl/index.php/en/2011-11-02-20-09-43).

I love this party, I hope they will join DRASI to form a bigger force


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Zuza on May 20, 2012, 10:08:37 pm
For the first time since 6 May elections, one poll (Marc/Alpha) indicate ND lead with 23.1 % (SYRIZA 21 %). ND and PASOK combined would get 164 seats. Can they form coalition in case of such election result?

Yeah, 151 seats gets them a majority of 1.
I understand, I asked about how likely that both ND and PASOK will agree to form coalition. Before 6 May ND rejected such possibility. What now say ND and PASOK leaders?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 21, 2012, 01:29:32 am
For the first time since 6 May elections, one poll (Marc/Alpha) indicate ND lead with 23.1 % (SYRIZA 21 %). ND and PASOK combined would get 164 seats. Can they form coalition in case of such election result?

Yeah, 151 seats gets them a majority of 1.
I understand, I asked about how likely that both ND and PASOK will agree to form coalition. Before 6 May ND rejected such possibility. What now say ND and PASOK leaders?

It's a virtual certainty. Of course having just 151-52 could be problematic. But if they manage to get 160+ together, then it's a done deal.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 21, 2012, 05:21:01 am
Merkel fanboys (http://dimiourgiaxana.gr/intl/index.php/en/speeches-a-articles/196-letter-to-merkel)

LOL masochists LOL

Not necessarily masochists. There are plenty of enthusiasts for swingeing austerity who believe that swingeing austerity will principally affect others and not themselves.
Upper income ultra-populist class warriors.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: RodPresident on May 21, 2012, 06:50:40 pm
Bakoyannis accepted Samaras' offer and she'll support him.
 
Merkel fanboys (http://dimiourgiaxana.gr/intl/index.php/en/speeches-a-articles/196-letter-to-merkel)

LOL masochists LOL

Not necessarily masochists. There are plenty of enthusiasts for swingeing austerity who believe that swingeing austerity will principally affect others and not themselves.
Upper income ultra-populist class warriors.
DX refused to accept Liberal Alliance in a pro-European coalition with Drasi. Manos is very surprised, but Tzimeros don't want to lose conservative voters because Valianatos is a gay rights activist.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lasitten on May 24, 2012, 03:51:33 pm
Reuters now announces that SYRIZA is polling 30 % and ND 26 %.
How can the situation differ so much? Elections going to be very interesting.

PASOK seems to be not rising from the 3rd place. Have Greeks lost their trust on PASOK? And are the people who usually vote for PASOK now voting SYRIZA?

Ou, I cannot post the link.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on May 24, 2012, 03:57:30 pm
Welcome!

You can just post the URL and we can copypaste it into our address bars, I think.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 24, 2012, 07:19:58 pm
This is the poll, presumably: http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120524-715300.html

Public Issue, released 5/24
SYRIZA: 30%
ND: 26%
PASOK: 15.5%
ANEL: 8%
DIMAR: 6.5%
KKE: 5%
XA: 4%
DIXA-DRASI: 3%

DATA RC, released 5/24
ND: 23.5%
SYRIZA: 23%
PASOK: 10.6%
ANEL: 5.3%
KKE: 4.6%
XA: 5.1%
DIMAR: 3.3%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on May 25, 2012, 12:30:29 am
Of those two polls, note that the former pollster tries to predict undecideds by determining how they lean, while the latter just reports undecideds like a US poll would. So it looks like there's like 25% undecided, most of them on the left (if you compare with the first poll).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: RodPresident on May 25, 2012, 12:35:25 am
In my opinion there are some undecideds on right too between ND and DX-Drasi coalition. Many of them see Samaras as too vacilating.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: © tweed on May 25, 2012, 11:18:05 am
GD and KKE lost ground.  predictably


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lasitten on May 26, 2012, 08:07:16 am
It's getting interesting because the Finnish media is full of news about Greece elections and one day they're predict that SYRIZA is going to win and other day all the media is for ND. It's like all Finns are interested for the result...

I wonder what's going to happen to DIMAR. Are supporters moving to vote SYRIZA or back to voting PASOK?



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2012, 12:55:44 pm
Four new polls today and they all show ND ahead by margins from 1,1 to 5,7%.

Kappa Research

(http://www.real.gr/filescalendar/2012/May/kappa.jpg)

ALCO

(http://www.real.gr/filescalendar/2012/May/ALCO.jpg)

MARC

(http://www.real.gr/filescalendar/2012/May/MARC%201.jpg)

And MRB has the following results:

ND                    23,3%
SYRIZA             22,2%
PASOK              13,8%
ANEL                     7%
DIMAR                5,7%
KKE                       5%
XA                         4%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on May 26, 2012, 01:25:32 pm
Christine Lagarde says that it is payback time for Greece

CHRISTINE Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that she had more sympathy for children in Africa than austerity-hit Greeks, who could help themselves by paying their taxes.

In an interview with The Guardian, the managing director of the IMF said that she was not worried by the economic and social impact of austerity on the Mediterranean country.

"No, I think more of the little kids from a school in a little village in Niger who get teaching two hours a day, sharing one chair for three of them, and who are very keen to get an education. I have them in my mind all the time. Because I think they need even more help than the people in Athens," Ms Lagarde told the British newspaper.

"Do you know what? As far as Athens is concerned, I also think about all those people who are trying to escape tax all the time. All these people in Greece who are trying to escape tax."

Ms Lagarde went on to say that she thought "equally" about Greeks who were deprived of public services and of Greek citizens who did not pay their tax.

"I think they should also help themselves collectively," she said. Asked how, she replied: "By all paying their tax".

Asked by The Guardian if she was essentially saying to the Greeks and others in Europe that they had had a nice time and that it was now payback time, she responded: "That's right".

Ms Lagarde reiterated that the IMF had no intention of softening the austerity demands to which Greece agreed in return for a multi-billion euro bailout.

Opinion polls suggest that Syriza, a leftist, anti-austerity party that came came second in Greece's May 6 election, could to win the vote at a new election on June 17. There are fears that if Greece turns its back on the austerity program, it could be forced out of the eurozone, triggering a Europe-wide crisis.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/christine-lagarde-says-that-it-is-payback-time-for-greece/story-fnawdwo8-1226367715480


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on May 26, 2012, 02:02:53 pm
Such a kind heart, our Christine. Almost too good for this fallen world.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: argentarius on May 26, 2012, 05:48:31 pm
What a bitch.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on May 26, 2012, 06:21:46 pm
A certain word that begins with a "c" comes to mind.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ingemann on May 26, 2012, 06:29:05 pm
Did she hurt the poor Greeks emotions, what a terrible person. I find it refreshing that she say that everybody, who have had to deal with this mess thinks. We have wasted five year which could have been used a lot better on eternal negotiation, to say nothing about the enormous capital transfer. I doubt many people have much patience with the Greeks right now, she justsaid it openly, while everyone else bite it in them.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on May 26, 2012, 06:35:29 pm
Did she hurt the poor Greeks emotions, what a terrible person. I find it refreshing that she say that everybody, who have had to deal with this mess thinks. We have wasted five year which could have been used a lot better on eternal negotiation, to say nothing about the enormous capital transfer. I doubt many people have much patience with the Greeks right now, she justsaid it openly, while everyone else bite it in them.

Yes, let us make blanket generalizations about all the Greeks as lazy, disgusting tax evaders who deserve to be dealt blows through the economic justice system. The austerity measures are how they will pay for their numerous sins. If the troika courts find that these measures won't be enough, let us give the hellenic peoples whips to lash themselves so that they can repent further.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ingemann on May 26, 2012, 07:22:33 pm
Did she hurt the poor Greeks emotions, what a terrible person. I find it refreshing that she say that everybody, who have had to deal with this mess thinks. We have wasted five year which could have been used a lot better on eternal negotiation, to say nothing about the enormous capital transfer. I doubt many people have much patience with the Greeks right now, she justsaid it openly, while everyone else bite it in them.

Yes, let us make blanket generalizations about all the Greeks as lazy, disgusting tax evaders who deserve to be dealt blows through the economic justice system. The austerity measures are how they will pay for their numerous sins. If the troika courts find that these measures won't be enough, let us give the hellenic peoples whips to lash themselves so that they can repent further.

6 out of 10 Greeks do not pay income tax
http://articles.cnn.com/2010-12-31/world/greece.taxes_1_income-taxes-greek-press-tax-evasion?_s=PM:WORLD

27,5% of the economy are in the so-called shadolw economy
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2011/07/11/110711ta_talk_surowiecki


In tax fines Greece has an embezzle rate of 40% (with further 40% simply being written off)
http://digitaljournal.com/article/316094

This was not a few bad apples, this is a general problem, and unless they take responsibility for the action of a major part of their population, the problem won't go away, no matter how much other pay for their irresponsibility. Greece aren't the first country which has problems with using more money than they got in, my own country had the same problem in the 80ties, and the result was that our tax rate was raised from 40% to 50%, we put high taxes on foreign products we didn't produce ourself (which is why a car in Denmark cost 300% of a car in most other countries) plus on gasolin to improve the BOP. The results was ugly, but as result Denmark are one of Europe richest countries today, a netto-exporter with a strong valuta. If we choosed to do nothing, the Danish valuta would have been a complete joke today and our living standards lower.

My biggest problem with Greece is that I don't hear a alternative to austerity, what the Greeks suggest are to keep things as they are. That's unacceptable and people can whine just as much about  all us evil foreigners seeing the Greeks as lazy, corrupt and dishonest, it doesn't change the fact that Greece need to change, and if they doesn't other countries will find continued financial support to Greece completely unacceptable.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 26, 2012, 07:50:24 pm
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_gWQaU40PH24/TSOSVuF5fvI/AAAAAAAAKBo/FzxUm6ozKNo/s1600/facepalm111.jpg)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 26, 2012, 08:23:01 pm
Of course this my general problem with modern Social Democracy. People who screw things up for themself are always victims and should never ever have to fix their problems by them selves, while people who have done everything right are horrible people if they don't do everything to help the people who screwed up. It's worthless as a domestic social policy and just as worthless when you try to apply on international relations.

The attitude on this site that Merkel and the IMF are horible people because they expect Greece and other nations they pour money into to get their bloody act together irks me. Good on people to remind me why I'm most certainly a right-winger.

Greece needs to get people to start paying their taxes, end of story. It's actually one of the reasons I think SYRIZA winning would be preferable. ND is a failed party, and obviously they're not gonna make wealthy Greek tax-evaders pay their taxes. SYRIZA could maybe. 

 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Vosem on May 26, 2012, 08:30:08 pm
Christine Lagarde says that it is payback time for Greece

CHRISTINE Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that she had more sympathy for children in Africa than austerity-hit Greeks, who could help themselves by paying their taxes.

In an interview with The Guardian, the managing director of the IMF said that she was not worried by the economic and social impact of austerity on the Mediterranean country.

"No, I think more of the little kids from a school in a little village in Niger who get teaching two hours a day, sharing one chair for three of them, and who are very keen to get an education. I have them in my mind all the time. Because I think they need even more help than the people in Athens," Ms Lagarde told the British newspaper.

"Do you know what? As far as Athens is concerned, I also think about all those people who are trying to escape tax all the time. All these people in Greece who are trying to escape tax."

Ms Lagarde went on to say that she thought "equally" about Greeks who were deprived of public services and of Greek citizens who did not pay their tax.

"I think they should also help themselves collectively," she said. Asked how, she replied: "By all paying their tax".

Asked by The Guardian if she was essentially saying to the Greeks and others in Europe that they had had a nice time and that it was now payback time, she responded: "That's right".

Ms Lagarde reiterated that the IMF had no intention of softening the austerity demands to which Greece agreed in return for a multi-billion euro bailout.

Opinion polls suggest that Syriza, a leftist, anti-austerity party that came came second in Greece's May 6 election, could to win the vote at a new election on June 17. There are fears that if Greece turns its back on the austerity program, it could be forced out of the eurozone, triggering a Europe-wide crisis.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/christine-lagarde-says-that-it-is-payback-time-for-greece/story-fnawdwo8-1226367715480

Well, yes. When you receive something, you should pay it back. When it is lump sums of money, you should pay it back with interest.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on May 26, 2012, 08:55:17 pm
Someone help me find a way to respond to Swedish Cheese with a post that isn't just a string of expletives on how he's completely missing the point.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Velasco on May 26, 2012, 10:59:30 pm
Legarde seems to be a kind hearted woman, indeed. I can´t see the Greek issue as a simple question of payback. You can say that Greece is a failed state, complain about  people who don´t pay their taxes and think that they need reforms. This could be true under a certain point of view and in that country many things really don´t work, but I don´t think that tighten the rope on a hanged person´s neck would help. One can wonder about the efficiency of the measures adopted and about the fact that Greece is paying interests over interests (isn´t it usury?). The money is lost but who is more guilty, the debtor or the moneylender? In the other hand I wonder about what is doing IMF actually to alleviate the situation in countries like Mali. Maybe fairer trade laws or some other measures would help?

The last polls show ND slightly ahead over Syriza. I don´t know if there are seat-projections aviable but I guess that a ND-PASOK majority is possible with the first over the 20% of share, given the 50-seats bonus. In the other hand I don´t trust Greek polls very much.  


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on May 27, 2012, 01:56:14 am
Someone help me find a way to respond to Swedish Cheese with a post that isn't just a string of expletives on how he's completely missing the point.

How is he missing the point? He seems to have gotten the main concerns down pretty well.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 27, 2012, 04:00:43 am
As much as Lagarde's statements were impolitic and clumsy, it pains me to say that they were absolutely true. Our governments failed miserably when it comes to cracking down on tax evasion and reforming our judicial system (a necessary act because thousands of tax cases are stagnating for years, if not decades, in our courts).

And the people here are not innocent. Not only because many of them are evading taxes but also because those that they don't do not seem to care enough so that they apply pressure on our politicians to end this game or help the state to catch corrupt IRS officers when they ask bribes.

P.S. I'd love to see Bacon King's analysis of the new polls.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on May 27, 2012, 04:07:24 am
If the troika courts find that these measures won't be enough, let us give the hellenic peoples whips to lash themselves so that they can repent further.

Well we would need to discuss some details, like where the whips would be made? Shall we have Greece make them for themselves, or should Northern Europe be allowed to sell them to get back a little money? Perhaps a neutral place like Switzerland would be best.

And perhaps more importantly, do you have any...let's say...."workout plan" in mind that could be sent with the whips? Need to make sure everyone knows how to best use them.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 27, 2012, 04:39:56 am
transparency international's corruption index

Greece 2008 4.7 / 57th in the world
Greece 2009 3.8 / 71st in the world
Greece 2010 3.5 / 78th in the world*

Some of this is presumably due to reassessment rather than an actual increase, but the general point stands: The troika's recipes (and the crisis itself) are making things worse, not better. It's self-evident, really: fixing endemic corruption issues requires spending money. What little in that regard was included in the troika diktats was largely window-dressing, declarations of intent for the future, and quite possibly the Greek government's own contribution to the packages. What happened straight away were across-the-board cuts for those unable to evade them - those not at fault, in short (except in the indirect "not exert enough pressure" sense of px' post).
The IMF's track record in Third World countries is of course exactly the same.
Of course, Greece doesn't have much of an industrial heritage of anything; its economy is based on tourism, money sent home by emigrants, and formerly on agricultural exports - a typical setup for a postcolonial economy that's doing fine (not based on oil etc) really, and a breeding ground for this kind of tax etc issues. Let us not forget that Britain basically considered Greece a de-facto colony / part of its "influence sphere" until WWII (which is why the failed intervention of Crete 1941, the plans for an invasion in 1944, and the intervention of 1945). Also, the overinflated army, involved in economic sectors where it doesn't belong and importing German armaments of course. Lagarde seems to be fine with that continuing.

*2001 to 2008 is not really much different (the rating rose somewhat, but the world rank remains about the same). 2000 was noticeably better, it's also the last time Greece wasn't bottom of the EU-15 - though a gap vs Italy didn't open until 2009. 2011 is 3.4 / 80th. Greece is still not at the bottom of the new enlarged EU in these tables, but it's 26th barely ahead of Bulgaria and slightly below Romania.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 27, 2012, 05:47:24 am
If the troika courts find that these measures won't be enough, let us give the hellenic peoples whips to lash themselves so that they can repent further.

Well we would need to discuss some details, like where the whips would be made? Shall we have Greece make them for themselves, or should Northern Europe be allowed to sell them to get back a little money? Perhaps a neutral place like Switzerland would be best.

And perhaps more importantly, do you have any...let's say...."workout plan" in mind that could be sent with the whips? Need to make sure everyone knows how to best use them.

What about this work-out plan? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3bEBKYrR8U)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Free Palestine on May 27, 2012, 03:51:36 pm
I'm hoping that either SYRIZA gets a majority, or SYRIZA gets just under a majority and the KKE and/or DIMAR come to their senses and agree to form a coalition.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 27, 2012, 05:15:18 pm
There is now a fifth poll from Pulse showing ND ahead.

(http://www.e-typos.com/content/1(32).jpg)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 27, 2012, 05:53:43 pm
Lyndon, is there a chance of a left-wing coalition between SYRIZA and PASOK if SYRIZA tops the polls, or is the only realistic alternatives with DIMAR and/or ANEL? And how well would SYRIZA and ANEL actually get along?

And while I'm asking questions anyway, why does KKE use Latin letters for their short from?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 27, 2012, 06:02:49 pm
Lyndon, is there a chance of a left-wing coalition between SYRIZA and PASOK if SYRIZA tops the polls, or is the only realistic alternatives with DIMAR and/or ANEL? And how well would SYRIZA and ANEL actually get along?

And while I'm asking questions anyway, why does KKE use Latin letters for their short from?

If SYRIZA comes first then that's probably what's going to happen (SYRIZA-PASOK-DIMAR) because as sure as hell nobody is anywhere close to getting a majority.
Forget about ANEL, they are a bunch of right-wing cranks. Tsipras might occasionally talk favorably about them but he knows very well that if he accepts them in a coalition he will become a joke.

And those are greek letters dude. They stand for "Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας" (Communist Party of Greece).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Vosem on May 27, 2012, 07:01:22 pm
Lyndon, is there a chance of a left-wing coalition between SYRIZA and PASOK if SYRIZA tops the polls, or is the only realistic alternatives with DIMAR and/or ANEL? And how well would SYRIZA and ANEL actually get along?

And while I'm asking questions anyway, why does KKE use Latin letters for their short from?

If SYRIZA comes first then that's probably what's going to happen (SYRIZA-PASOK-DIMAR) because as sure as hell nobody is anywhere close to getting a majority.
Forget about ANEL, they are a bunch of right-wing cranks. Tsipras might occasionally talk favorably about them but he knows very well that if he accepts them in a coalition he will become a joke.

And those are greek letters dude. They stand for "Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας" (Communist Party of Greece).

Would SYRIZA really accept PASOK into the government? There seemed to be no chance of that last time around, and it doesn't seem like circumstances have changed much.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MustCrushCapitalism on May 27, 2012, 09:57:07 pm
That's kind of disappointing. Things right now could turn out two ways for SYRIZA, I think.

Either they'll refuse to work with PASOK, and partake in left-wing policy like that of Evo Morales in Bolivia or Hugo Chavez in Venezuela (probably not), or they'll fall into coalitionism with PASOK and prove themselves to just be another social democratic party no better than PASOK.

It's still interesting to watch it unfold though, anyway. I think we'd all hope that Golden Dawn doesn't make any more gains.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on May 27, 2012, 09:58:48 pm
That's kind of disappointing. Things right now could turn out two ways for SYRIZA, I think.

Either they'll refuse to work with PASOK, and partake in left-wing policy like that of Evo Morales in Bolivia or Hugo Chavez in Venezuela (probably not), or they'll fall into coalitionism with PASOK and prove themselves to just be another social democratic party no better than PASOK.

They might be somewhat hamstrung by the EU in the former eventuality. Then again, the EU might kick them out, in practice if not in name, anyway.

Quote
It's still interesting to watch it unfold though, anyway. I think we'd all hope that Golden Dawn doesn't make any more gains.

I don't think there's much danger of that.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Free Palestine on May 28, 2012, 12:05:22 am
I don't think there's much danger of that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_1928
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_1930

Nazis must be treated like the dangerous threat they are.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on May 28, 2012, 12:18:14 am
If the troika courts find that these measures won't be enough, let us give the hellenic peoples whips to lash themselves so that they can repent further.

Well we would need to discuss some details, like where the whips would be made? Shall we have Greece make them for themselves, or should Northern Europe be allowed to sell them to get back a little money? Perhaps a neutral place like Switzerland would be best.

Let's take it a little further. Northern Europe would not only be allowed to sell some meagre whips to get back a little money. Northern Europe has been treated so unjustly by Greece this entire catastrophe, that I think Northern Europe should be allowed to sell Greece 50 nuclear power plants, 5 million automobiles, 100 million free vacations, 1 million villas, 1 million swimming pools, 5 million smartphones, 5 million laptop computers, 50 skyscrapers, 20,000 schools, 20 subway systems, 5 million Louis Vuitton handbags, 100 fighter jets, an aircraft carrier, 20 Airbus A330s, 50 million coupons for manicures in Germany, 20 million pairs of shoes, and the isle of Rugen in the Baltic. Northern Europe will be permitted to earn 1 trillion euros in exchange.

The sum can simply be added to the Greek national debt.

Also, pass a law forbidding Greeks from engaging in productive labor, on penalty of death. When Greeks need water to drink, they must buy it from the Germans. When they need bread to eat, they must buy it from the Germans. They will add the costs of these to their national debt also, naturally.

That would solve your problems immediately, Franzl. All the money owed to Germany would make your country fantastically wealthy, and the happiness of your people will multiply like the loaves of bread Jesus handed out in the New Testament.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on May 28, 2012, 12:28:43 am
Did she hurt the poor Greeks emotions, what a terrible person. I find it refreshing that she say that everybody, who have had to deal with this mess thinks. We have wasted five year which could have been used a lot better on eternal negotiation, to say nothing about the enormous capital transfer. I doubt many people have much patience with the Greeks right now, she justsaid it openly, while everyone else bite it in them.

Yes, let us make blanket generalizations about all the Greeks as lazy, disgusting tax evaders who deserve to be dealt blows through the economic justice system. The austerity measures are how they will pay for their numerous sins. If the troika courts find that these measures won't be enough, let us give the hellenic peoples whips to lash themselves so that they can repent further.

6 out of 10 Greeks do not pay income tax
http://articles.cnn.com/2010-12-31/world/greece.taxes_1_income-taxes-greek-press-tax-evasion?_s=PM:WORLD

27,5% of the economy are in the so-called shadolw economy
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2011/07/11/110711ta_talk_surowiecki


In tax fines Greece has an embezzle rate of 40% (with further 40% simply being written off)
http://digitaljournal.com/article/316094

This was not a few bad apples, this is a general problem, and unless they take responsibility for the action of a major part of their population, the problem won't go away, no matter how much other pay for their irresponsibility. Greece aren't the first country which has problems with using more money than they got in, my own country had the same problem in the 80ties, and the result was that our tax rate was raised from 40% to 50%, we put high taxes on foreign products we didn't produce ourself (which is why a car in Denmark cost 300% of a car in most other countries) plus on gasolin to improve the BOP. The results was ugly, but as result Denmark are one of Europe richest countries today, a netto-exporter with a strong valuta. If we choosed to do nothing, the Danish valuta would have been a complete joke today and our living standards lower.

My biggest problem with Greece is that I don't hear a alternative to austerity, what the Greeks suggest are to keep things as they are. That's unacceptable and people can whine just as much about  all us evil foreigners seeing the Greeks as lazy, corrupt and dishonest, it doesn't change the fact that Greece need to change, and if they doesn't other countries will find continued financial support to Greece completely unacceptable.

Well, I know It's a feeble comparision, but people who doesn't pay taxes here would be extremely glad if They'd be able to do It. And I was only able to do It after I stopped doing things as a professional and started being juridically an enterprise. I would also like to remember that the stimulus for overdebt/overcomsumption on southern UE was the core of northern UE countries policies. Pretty hypocritical to blame them now.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on May 28, 2012, 12:49:46 am
I don't think there's much danger of that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_1928
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_1930

Nazis must be treated like the dangerous threat they are.

I meant in terms of no polling indicating it.

Of course, they still need to be campaigned strongly against. And if they were to end up winning more seats it would be a cause for serious concern no matter whether or not they still 'seemed relatively minor'.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Amorphous on May 28, 2012, 02:22:45 am
There is now a fifth poll from Pulse showing ND ahead.

All these polls seem to be within the margin of error given that the sample sizes seem to be 1000-1200 (correct me if I'm wrong), which makes roughly for a +/- 3% margin of error, so in essence you have a near statistical tie based on existing polling.  It seems to me the markets today are OVERreacting positively anticipating an optimistic scenario of a pro-bailout coalition being favored by the Greek public based on these polls.

More importantly, I understand these polls exclude undecideds as well as those who refuse to answer.  How do those undecideds tend to vote in Greece?  In the U.S., undecideds tend to vote for the challenger the majority of the time.

Do we know anything about polling methodologies?  Are these all landline based polls, if so, that would seem to generally favor older voters who are likely to break conservative (as it does in the U.S.)?

The issue I see is that the polls were off the mark prior to the May 6th election, and the question is why.  Could Syriza be underpolling again?  If there is a proposed debate just prior to the election my guess is that may be a decisive factor and all these early polls are interesting but not reflective of how things will turn out.



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 28, 2012, 03:44:24 am
If the troika courts find that these measures won't be enough, let us give the hellenic peoples whips to lash themselves so that they can repent further.

Well we would need to discuss some details, like where the whips would be made? Shall we have Greece make them for themselves, or should Northern Europe be allowed to sell them to get back a little money? Perhaps a neutral place like Switzerland would be best.

Let's take it a little further. Northern Europe would not only be allowed to sell some meagre whips to get back a little money. Northern Europe has been treated so unjustly by Greece this entire catastrophe, that I think Northern Europe should be allowed to sell Greece 50 nuclear power plants, 5 million automobiles, 100 million free vacations, 1 million villas, 1 million swimming pools, 5 million smartphones, 5 million laptop computers, 50 skyscrapers, 20,000 schools, 20 subway systems, 5 million Louis Vuitton handbags, 100 fighter jets, an aircraft carrier, 20 Airbus A330s, 50 million coupons for manicures in Germany, 20 million pairs of shoes, and the isle of Rugen in the Baltic.
Woah. Hold it right there. We don't want to lose Rügen, it's a moneymaker. Rather, we want the Greeks to write over the Akropolis* and the prettier islands.

*not a joke, alas. These are exactly the kind of things the yellow press clamoured for. Well, they did talk about "sell", but...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on May 29, 2012, 10:54:27 am
So what would be the process by which Greece was kicked out of the Eurozone? Which European bodies would make the decision? Would it even be legal to do so? At this point I kinda want to see SYRIZA win just to see the frantic activity that would result.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on May 29, 2012, 11:32:53 am
It is technically impossible to force a country to leave the eurozone.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ingemann on May 29, 2012, 11:50:53 am
Well, I know It's a feeble comparision, but people who doesn't pay taxes here would be extremely glad if They'd be able to do It. And I was only able to do It after I stopped doing things as a professional and started being juridically an enterprise. I would also like to remember that the stimulus for overdebt/overcomsumption on southern UE was the core of northern UE countries policies. Pretty hypocritical to blame them now.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean. The money transfered from the richer parts of Europe, wasn't loans, but mostly free support to development of infrastructure and agricultural support. The debt the Greek has build up here, is a result of them being member of the Euro, which meant that they could sell low interest bonds. It wouldn't have been such a big problem, if they hadn't hidden the size of their debt, by lying about the degree of tax evasion and money lost to corruption, until the point there they couldn't hide it anymore (when the crisis began and the American bank which had helped them conning the rest of EU, suddely couldn't/wouldn't help them with the con anymore). This is the primary reason, that few net contributor to EU are willing to let the Greeks off the hook.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 29, 2012, 12:33:44 pm
So what would be the process by which Greece was kicked out of the Eurozone? Which European bodies would make the decision? Would it even be legal to do so? At this point I kinda want to see SYRIZA win just to see the frantic activity that would result.

Greece defaults. There is a run on the Greek banks. ECB announces that it is up to the Greeks to resolve it. Target 2 is blocked: interbank settlements are to be conducted on the bank-to-bank basis, within the limits of funds in appropriate correspondence accounts. Greek CB is reminded about the limits on the ammount of cash euros it is allowed to issue and warned that exceeding those limits (as it has been doing recently) will result in those euros extra (identified by serial numbers) no longer being accepted as legal tender in other member states (as they are, obviously, fakes).

Greek government announces a banking holiday. International bank transfers are blocked. When, after a week or so, banks reopen, they "temporarily" issue their customers not with euro cash, but with Greek government or Central Bank bonds (possibly still denominated in euors). The same bonds are used to pay public sector sallaries, etc. These new Greek euros trade at a discount: say, three Greek euros per actual cash euro.

That's the transition - and the beauty is, nobody needs to make any political decisions whatsoever.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on May 29, 2012, 12:36:56 pm
It is technically impossible to force a country to leave the eurozone.

What is your definition of technical? It is not that difficult to make a country drop out "voluntarily" - for lack of realistic alternatives. The only thing that's "technically" impossible is to stop that country from calling euro its currency - but, in practice, the currency then would be a "national euro", with its own exchange rate into actual euros (black market rate, if legal transactions other than at 1-to-1 are banned).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on May 29, 2012, 02:50:58 pm
Well, I know It's a feeble comparision, but people who doesn't pay taxes here would be extremely glad if They'd be able to do It. And I was only able to do It after I stopped doing things as a professional and started being juridically an enterprise. I would also like to remember that the stimulus for overdebt/overcomsumption on southern UE was the core of northern UE countries policies. Pretty hypocritical to blame them now.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean. The money transferred from the richer parts of Europe, wasn't loans, but mostly free support to development of infrastructure and agricultural support. The debt the Greek has build up here, is a result of them being member of the Euro, which meant that they could sell low interest bonds. It wouldn't have been such a big problem, if they hadn't hidden the size of their debt, by lying about the degree of tax evasion and money lost to corruption, until the point there they couldn't hide it anymore (when the crisis began and the American bank which had helped them conning the rest of EU, suddenly couldn't/wouldn't help them with the con anymore). This is the primary reason, that few net contributor to EU are willing to let the Greeks off the hook.

If that was the problem, It would struck only on them, not on the whole UE periphery. I must agree It made things worse, but It seems ingenuity to believe the central UE members and institutions weren't just seen It and were caught by surprise. In the other side of the ocean, a nobody whose main work is with built cultural heritage was aware they did tricks, I suppose, even the exact tricks weren't publicly known, the responsible staff at Brussels, Berlin or whateverwhere should had tracked and be prepared for It, if they were really responsible.
The money directly transferred wasn't the main issue here, but how things were done. I'm not aware of Danemark's specific case, but the rule was to export to the peripheral countries and be very glad they were avid consumers, relying the core of their economy on monetarist policies, father than building up more relyable economic bases.
Than, the structural problem of European consensus came down, hit one by one and was specially mean on economies floating in the air, as monetarist recipes prescribe. Than everyone comes (including those who were very fine with the previous situation, thanks) and points their fingers: "the problem was that you were a mean kid! It's all your fault!".
To me, this is obvious scapegoating.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ingemann on May 29, 2012, 03:22:27 pm
Well, I know It's a feeble comparision, but people who doesn't pay taxes here would be extremely glad if They'd be able to do It. And I was only able to do It after I stopped doing things as a professional and started being juridically an enterprise. I would also like to remember that the stimulus for overdebt/overcomsumption on southern UE was the core of northern UE countries policies. Pretty hypocritical to blame them now.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean. The money transferred from the richer parts of Europe, wasn't loans, but mostly free support to development of infrastructure and agricultural support. The debt the Greek has build up here, is a result of them being member of the Euro, which meant that they could sell low interest bonds. It wouldn't have been such a big problem, if they hadn't hidden the size of their debt, by lying about the degree of tax evasion and money lost to corruption, until the point there they couldn't hide it anymore (when the crisis began and the American bank which had helped them conning the rest of EU, suddenly couldn't/wouldn't help them with the con anymore). This is the primary reason, that few net contributor to EU are willing to let the Greeks off the hook.

If that was the problem, It would struck only on them, not on the whole UE periphery. I must agree It made things worse, but It seems ingenuity to believe the central UE members and institutions weren't just seen It and were caught by surprise. In the other side of the ocean, a nobody whose main work is with built cultural heritage was aware they did tricks, I suppose, even the exact tricks weren't publicly known, the responsible staff at Brussels, Berlin or whateverwhere should had tracked and be prepared for It, if they were really responsible.
The money directly transferred wasn't the main issue here, but how things were done. I'm not aware of Danemark's specific case, but the rule was to export to the peripheral countries and be very glad they were avid consumers, relying the core of their economy on monetarist policies, father than building up more relyable economic bases.
Than, the structural problem of European consensus came down, hit one by one and was specially mean on economies floating in the air, as monetarist recipes prescribe. Than everyone comes (including those who were very fine with the previous situation, thanks) and points their fingers: "the problem was that you were a mean kid! It's all your fault!".
To me, this is obvious scapegoating.

I don't follow the logic. What precisely do you want people to do, keep sending money to Greece? We can talk as much as we want about scapegoating and it being everybody else but the Greeks fault that they evaded tax, stole and in general behaved deeply irresponsable, it doesn't change the fact that there are two possible scenarios. Greece keep on going as they have done in decades or they change. The other Euro countries with Germany in charge has told them that the former is unacceptable. That's not scapegoating that's a intervention.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on May 29, 2012, 10:40:26 pm
Well, I know It's a feeble comparision, but people who doesn't pay taxes here would be extremely glad if They'd be able to do It. And I was only able to do It after I stopped doing things as a professional and started being juridically an enterprise. I would also like to remember that the stimulus for overdebt/overcomsumption on southern UE was the core of northern UE countries policies. Pretty hypocritical to blame them now.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean. The money transferred from the richer parts of Europe, wasn't loans, but mostly free support to development of infrastructure and agricultural support. The debt the Greek has build up here, is a result of them being member of the Euro, which meant that they could sell low interest bonds. It wouldn't have been such a big problem, if they hadn't hidden the size of their debt, by lying about the degree of tax evasion and money lost to corruption, until the point there they couldn't hide it anymore (when the crisis began and the American bank which had helped them conning the rest of EU, suddenly couldn't/wouldn't help them with the con anymore). This is the primary reason, that few net contributor to EU are willing to let the Greeks off the hook.

If that was the problem, It would struck only on them, not on the whole UE periphery. I must agree It made things worse, but It seems ingenuity to believe the central UE members and institutions weren't just seen It and were caught by surprise. In the other side of the ocean, a nobody whose main work is with built cultural heritage was aware they did tricks, I suppose, even the exact tricks weren't publicly known, the responsible staff at Brussels, Berlin or whateverwhere should had tracked and be prepared for It, if they were really responsible.
The money directly transferred wasn't the main issue here, but how things were done. I'm not aware of Danemark's specific case, but the rule was to export to the peripheral countries and be very glad they were avid consumers, relying the core of their economy on monetarist policies, father than building up more relyable economic bases.
Than, the structural problem of European consensus came down, hit one by one and was specially mean on economies floating in the air, as monetarist recipes prescribe. Than everyone comes (including those who were very fine with the previous situation, thanks) and points their fingers: "the problem was that you were a mean kid! It's all your fault!".
To me, this is obvious scapegoating.

I don't follow the logic. What precisely do you want people to do, keep sending money to Greece? We can talk as much as we want about scapegoating and it being everybody else but the Greeks fault that they evaded tax, stole and in general behaved deeply irresponsable, it doesn't change the fact that there are two possible scenarios. Greece keep on going as they have done in decades or they change. The other Euro countries with Germany in charge has told them that the former is unacceptable. That's not scapegoating that's a intervention.

Ingemann, the logic is that, apart from creative financial management, they did what they were expected to do. Everybody is closing the eyes to this and keeps only remembering their ways as smart-asses. Their tricks May be associated with, but were clearly not the central cause, and using that as the main rhetorical point for intervention is mean. It would have happend anyway, with or without evasion. And if the main issues don't come to the center of the debate, you folks will be faded to not getting out of this mess.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 30, 2012, 02:56:48 am
New poll from GPO, the 6th in a row that shows SYRIZA falling behind ND. The trend is undeniable now.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-R-oUy6pv1gc/T8VNVxuWF5I/AAAAAAAAIf0/QoAAYufrTdU/s640/GPO+MEGA+295.jpg)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Make Politics Boring Again on May 30, 2012, 03:09:58 am
Why does PASOK even exist now, let alone still obtain a respectable share? Surely those who want EU-backed austerity can just vote ND, and the old days of party patronage must be over for good.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on May 30, 2012, 09:22:35 am
Why does PASOK even exist now, let alone still obtain a respectable share? Surely those who want EU-backed austerity can just vote ND, and the old days of party patronage must be over for good.

If KKE can get 6% even when a viable leftist party exists, then PASOK can certainly survive.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2012, 09:29:31 am
(http://www.epikaira.gr/content/data/multimedia/images/imagescache/08fbfc0faa0d1804f3789d3103c843a639e6b8a2.576.267.8588b5988b13d93aa175ba4892d1a7f04bc1c8a2.jpg)

px, what does the other stuff on that page below mean ?

http://www.epikaira.gr/epikairo.php?id=43642&categories_id=69


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 30, 2012, 10:33:50 am
(http://www.epikaira.gr/content/data/multimedia/images/imagescache/08fbfc0faa0d1804f3789d3103c843a639e6b8a2.576.267.8588b5988b13d93aa175ba4892d1a7f04bc1c8a2.jpg)

px, what does the other stuff on that page below mean ?

http://www.epikaira.gr/epikairo.php?id=43642&categories_id=69

Ignore that poll. It was commissioned by Epikaira, a conspiracy-peddling publication with no credibility whatsoever. Even if the topiline numbers were correct, it would still be a bad result for SYRIZA since two weeks ago they showed it more than 6 points ahead of ND.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2012, 10:35:47 am
(http://www.epikaira.gr/content/data/multimedia/images/imagescache/08fbfc0faa0d1804f3789d3103c843a639e6b8a2.576.267.8588b5988b13d93aa175ba4892d1a7f04bc1c8a2.jpg)

px, what does the other stuff on that page below mean ?

http://www.epikaira.gr/epikairo.php?id=43642&categories_id=69

Ignore that poll. It was commissioned by Epikaira, a conspiracy-peddling publication with no credibility whatsoever. Even if the topiline numbers were correct, it would still be a bad result for SYRIZA since two weeks ago they showed it more than 6 points ahead of ND.

But VPRC looked like the best pollster to me in the 1st election.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on May 30, 2012, 10:49:08 am
Why does PASOK even exist now, let alone still obtain a respectable share? Surely those who want EU-backed austerity can just vote ND, and the old days of party patronage must be over for good.

PASOK still has some strongholds where patronage no doubt works (like Crete), and honestly will probably surge back into government if either ND or SYRIZA messes up after taking over.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 30, 2012, 10:59:36 am
(http://www.epikaira.gr/content/data/multimedia/images/imagescache/08fbfc0faa0d1804f3789d3103c843a639e6b8a2.576.267.8588b5988b13d93aa175ba4892d1a7f04bc1c8a2.jpg)

px, what does the other stuff on that page below mean ?

http://www.epikaira.gr/epikairo.php?id=43642&categories_id=69

Ignore that poll. It was commissioned by Epikaira, a conspiracy-peddling publication with no credibility whatsoever. Even if the topiline numbers were correct, it would still be a bad result for SYRIZA since two weeks ago they showed it more than 6 points ahead of ND.

But VPRC looked like the best pollster to me in the 1st election.

Maybe they were, I haven't checked it out. But after six straight polls showing virtually the same results I'm skeptical about today's numbers. And their client makes me even more so.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on May 30, 2012, 12:58:22 pm
You can't really judge a pollster by its client.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 30, 2012, 02:34:47 pm
You can't really judge a pollster by its client.

Here in Greece you can. The client almost always gets what he pays for.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 30, 2012, 07:08:38 pm
Why does PASOK even exist now, let alone still obtain a respectable share? Surely those who want EU-backed austerity can just vote ND, and the old days of party patronage must be over for good.

PASOK still has some strongholds where patronage no doubt works (like Crete), and honestly will probably surge back into government if either ND or SYRIZA messes up after taking over.
How could they possibly win back votes in other places? 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: mileslunn on May 30, 2012, 08:03:52 pm
So what would be the process by which Greece was kicked out of the Eurozone? Which European bodies would make the decision? Would it even be legal to do so? At this point I kinda want to see SYRIZA win just to see the frantic activity that would result.

It could be done although I think they would need to amend the treaties first as my understanding is other than Denmark and the UK (who sought opt-outs in the Maastrict Treaty), every other country and any future member must join the Euro and cannot leave or be kicked out.  Most of the rules governing the Euro were made in the 90s when many dreamed of the idea of a European superstate without actually having a clue as to how it would work.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on May 31, 2012, 04:45:54 am
So what would be the process by which Greece was kicked out of the Eurozone? Which European bodies would make the decision? Would it even be legal to do so? At this point I kinda want to see SYRIZA win just to see the frantic activity that would result.

It could be done although I think they would need to amend the treaties first as my understanding is other than Denmark and the UK (who sought opt-outs in the Maastrict Treaty), every other country and any future member must join the Euro and cannot leave or be kicked out.  Most of the rules governing the Euro were made in the 90s when many dreamed of the idea of a European superstate without actually having a clue as to how it would work.
Thats correct, and Sweden stays out by not complying to one of the requirements for joining the Euro.
But if Greece where to leave, I am sure the EU would find a solution. Greece getting a similar exception as the UK and Denmark will in itself be one of the smaller problems in this crisis.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ingemann on May 31, 2012, 10:03:52 am

Ingemann, the logic is that, apart from creative financial management, they did what they were expected to do. Everybody is closing the eyes to this and keeps only remembering their ways as smart-asses. Their tricks May be associated with, but were clearly not the central cause, and using that as the main rhetorical point for intervention is mean. It would have happend anyway, with or without evasion. And if the main issues don't come to the center of the debate, you folks will be faded to not getting out of this mess.

I fail to see how its anybody but the Greeks fault that they cheated, yes most expected some fraud in Greece, but no one had a idea of the scale, and the major problem was as long as it wasn't or couldn't be proved, no one was going to make accusations. When we now have the knowledge of the scale and but also hard proffs, no one is going to send more money, before they are sure that they aren't wasted.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Amorphous on May 31, 2012, 01:54:15 pm
New poll from GPO, the 6th in a row that shows SYRIZA falling behind ND. The trend is undeniable now.


These polls all seem to be within the margin of error which is around 3%, so the reality is that this will be a tight race, and that's all we can say definitively.  A poll where the two top choices are withing the margin of error is a statistical tie for all intents and purposes.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 31, 2012, 02:00:51 pm
New poll from GPO, the 6th in a row that shows SYRIZA falling behind ND. The trend is undeniable now.


These polls all seem to be within the margin of error which is around 3%, so the reality is that this will be a tight race, and that's all we can say definitively.  A poll where the two top choices are withing the margin of error is a statistical tie for all intents and purposes.

You said the same thing the other day. If six polls show the same result, even within the margin of error, then what is the chance that they are ALL wrong?

And anyway, today we had three more. Two of them showed yet again ND ahead by a couple of points and one showed a tie. Compare these numbers to the unmistakable high single digit SYRIZA lead that everybody found the first 10 days after the May 6th election.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Amorphous on May 31, 2012, 02:11:24 pm
I'm particular loathe to accept at face value polls that exclude those who are undecided and that are within the margin of error.  The question is, how many were excluded due to being undecided?  Who are undecided voters likely to break for?  Unless you can answer that question, the "trend" you cite is meaningless especially in light of the margin of error.

A classic example is the Lisbon treaty vote in Ireland.  Everyone assumed it was a slam dunk due to polls showing the Yes votes with an advantage, but what the mainstream media ignored was the large percentage of undecided voters before the actual vote.  These undecided voters broke for 'No' and the Lisbon Treaty lost.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on May 31, 2012, 03:16:42 pm

Ingemann, the logic is that, apart from creative financial management, they did what they were expected to do. Everybody is closing the eyes to this and keeps only remembering their ways as smart-asses. Their tricks May be associated with, but were clearly not the central cause, and using that as the main rhetorical point for intervention is mean. It would have happend anyway, with or without evasion. And if the main issues don't come to the center of the debate, you folks will be faded to not getting out of this mess.

I fail to see how its anybody but the Greeks fault that they cheated, yes most expected some fraud in Greece, but no one had a idea of the scale, and the major problem was as long as it wasn't or couldn't be proved, no one was going to make accusations. When we now have the knowledge of the scale and but also hard proffs, no one is going to send more money, before they are sure that they aren't wasted.

Well, now It's me the one not following the logic: I kept defending through three posts that the issue are not the cheatings, that they are marginal, that the whole problem happens independently of their existence, and You kept ignoring my points and getting back to that. Also, as far as I'm aware, the demands put by the UE doesn't seem to focus on frauds but on cutting wellfare, independently of spreadsheet veracity.

If the whole issue was that poor financial management and frauds had led to the crisis, than there wouldn't be any arguing about. And also, It wouldn't reach the structural level It is now, neither would had started at other countrues. The problem here, again, is that's not the matter. The crisis exists without the evasion. And I dare say that the evasions helped the problem to be more bearable to the Greek population, but, again, this is not the issue at all. Please.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Phony Moderate on June 02, 2012, 09:47:13 pm
It's quite amazing how many people I know are planning to go on holiday in Greece in the near future.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on June 02, 2012, 09:58:27 pm
I've seen it as a solidarity 'the Greeks are suffering, and tourism's big for the country, so we'll have a holiday there' thing.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 03, 2012, 12:01:28 am
It's quite amazing how many people I know are planning to go on holiday in Greece in the near future.

Country in ruin or not, Greece is still amazing for we Brits abroad.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Gustaf on June 03, 2012, 06:24:17 am
New poll from GPO, the 6th in a row that shows SYRIZA falling behind ND. The trend is undeniable now.


These polls all seem to be within the margin of error which is around 3%, so the reality is that this will be a tight race, and that's all we can say definitively.  A poll where the two top choices are withing the margin of error is a statistical tie for all intents and purposes.

You said the same thing the other day. If six polls show the same result, even within the margin of error, then what is the chance that they are ALL wrong?

And anyway, today we had three more. Two of them showed yet again ND ahead by a couple of points and one showed a tie. Compare these numbers to the unmistakable high single digit SYRIZA lead that everybody found the first 10 days after the May 6th election.

That is correct. (well, technically, it's a rhetorical question so it can't be, but still :P)

It is also not true that a 6% difference is insignificant if the MoE is 3%.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Vosem on June 03, 2012, 03:04:41 pm
Since there won't be any more public polls and it's doubtful anything will really change the state of the race, here are my predictions -- they come largely from averages, with some weighting. I actually put a quite a great deal of thought into this. Note that, when you take away the 50-seat bonus, ND/DISY only beat SYRIZA 71-70 -- meaning that, even though most thought it was pointless, the alliance with DISY, with these results, would have been the decisive moment of the campaign.

ND/DISY 121 (+13)
SYRIZA 70 (+18)
PASOK 37 (-4)
ANEL 19 (-14)
DIMAR 17 (-2)
KKE 14 (-12)
XA 13 (-8)
DX/DRASI-FS 9 (+9)

Note that a grand pro-austerity coalition, ND/PASOK/DISY/DX/DRASI-FS, would have 167 seats and therefore a rather comfortable majority. The Grexit...is averted. However, if we shift a single seat from ND to SYRIZA...SYRIZA/DIMAR would have only 138 seats, and they would have to recruit either KKE (doubtful), or more likely, ANEL for a grand anti-austerity coalition...I'm not sure to what extent SYRIZA/ANEL/DIMAR would really work though.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lasitten on June 07, 2012, 06:46:12 am
athensnews.gr/portal/8/56094

Way to go :D MP from to Golden Dawn attacks two other from SYRIZA and KKE.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 07, 2012, 07:22:53 am
During a talkshow. They had remarked about the fact that he's facing trial for an armed robbery. He fled the studio afterwards... and had his bail revoked as a result of the incident and is currently at large.

Finally a party that can speak for the nonrespectable working class.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: batmacumba on June 07, 2012, 08:00:53 am
The original German word is Lumpenproletariat.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 07, 2012, 08:24:26 am
The original German word is Lumpenproletariat.
While also fitting here, it's not a term in my lexicon and not precisely what I meant. :P


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Seattle on June 07, 2012, 11:16:15 am
Pretty ridiculous actions, but completely expected from him. Poor KKE woman, getting beat up.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 07, 2012, 11:26:42 am
Pretty ridiculous actions, but completely expected from him. Poor KKE woman, getting beat up.

Well, she is not exactly an innocent bystander. Kanelli is our communist equivalent of Steve King and Michele Bachmann.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Boris on June 07, 2012, 12:24:30 pm
As a Greek I'll tell you some facts about the aftermath.The beating and cursing continued while there was a commercial break.The man was chased in the studio by cameramen and the floor manager and they managed to lock him in a room where he hid until the police came.He then busted the door open and run away from the studio in the nearby fields

I wish they had left the cameras running! this would have been comical to watch


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: lilTommy on June 07, 2012, 12:35:33 pm
Pretty ridiculous actions, but completely expected from him. Poor KKE woman, getting beat up.

Well, she is not exactly an innocent bystander. Kanelli is our communist equivalent of Steve King and Michele Bachmann.

... And every time i see Michele Bachmann i DO want to punch her in the face...

Kanelli did after all throw some paper at him, and in good old fashioned neo-nazi style the best response is to be heavy handed... literally.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on June 07, 2012, 02:45:34 pm
Surley this  must mean the end to Golden Dawn's time in parliament? No party can have a sitting MP do this on live TV right before an election and survive, not even in the special circumstances of this Greek election.

It's bad when you make me feel sympathetic to a communist. Especially when the communist is apperently a left-wing Michelle Bachmann. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 07, 2012, 07:48:04 pm
He punches like a woman as well.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Seattle on June 07, 2012, 08:59:41 pm
Pretty ridiculous actions, but completely expected from him. Poor KKE woman, getting beat up.

Well, she is not exactly an innocent bystander. Kanelli is our communist equivalent of Steve King and Michele Bachmann.

Oh, I know. But physical violence never has a place in the arena of politics.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on June 07, 2012, 09:56:56 pm
So they have The Jerry Springer Show in Greece?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 09, 2012, 01:32:28 pm
Surley this  must mean the end to Golden Dawn's time in parliament?

Well, the thing is, if a person is actually a horrible enough human being to find it in themselves to vote for a neo-nazi party, than would they actually be bothered by something like this?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on June 09, 2012, 02:21:24 pm
Surley this  must mean the end to Golden Dawn's time in parliament?

Well, the thing is, if a person is actually a horrible enough human being to find it in themselves to vote for a neo-nazi party, than would they actually be bothered by something like this?

Sadly, I think the kind of people who vote for XA are just deluded idiots who have no idea what kind of party they are voting for. A share of them probably don't even know what a nazi is...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ObserverIE on June 09, 2012, 08:18:32 pm
Not sure if this is old news, disinformation, or both, but from today's Irish Times (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0609/1224317568992.html):

Quote
A moratorium on the publication of opinion polls has been in place since June 1st but pollsters have been conducting surveys privately on behalf of the parties since then.

According to the findings of one pollster, who spoke to this newspaper on condition of anonymity, the Radical Left Coalition (Syriza) is in first place and could comfortably form a government with the moderate Democratic Left party without requiring the support of socialist Pasok.

Another informed source has tentatively suggested that Syriza, which says it will cancel the existing memorandum and seek to renegotiate the country’s legitimate loan commitments, may even be in a position to form a majority government on its own.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: LastVoter on June 09, 2012, 09:56:50 pm
Surley this  must mean the end to Golden Dawn's time in parliament?

Well, the thing is, if a person is actually a horrible enough human being to find it in themselves to vote for a neo-nazi party, than would they actually be bothered by something like this?

Sadly, I think the kind of people who vote for XA are just deluded idiots who have no idea what kind of party they are voting for. A share of them probably don't even know what a nazi is...
Nah they know what a Nazi is, they just deny what they have done.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: © tweed on June 13, 2012, 11:04:50 am
As a Greek I'll tell you some facts about the aftermath.The beating and cursing continued while there was a commercial break.The man was chased in the studio by cameramen and the floor manager and they managed to lock him in a room where he hid until the police came.He then busted the door open and run away from the studio in the nearby fields

I wish they had left the cameras running! this would have been comical to watch

problem is half of cops voted XD last turnaround.  I saw something two days ago that says XD is planning to forcibly evict illegal immigrants from hospitals.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Boris on June 13, 2012, 12:37:03 pm
I don't think they mention anything about 'illegal:'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/12/golden-dawn-hospital-immigrants-greece?fb=native&CMP=FBCNETTXT9038

Of course, the problem with going around and beating up/murdering everyone who isn't white is that eventually they're going to do it to another EU national or an American. Which would then decimate the Greek tourism industry. But I suppose most XA members probably have some form of mental illness and therefore are incapable of reaching such conclusions.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on June 13, 2012, 01:24:56 pm
As a Greek I'll tell you some facts about the aftermath.The beating and cursing continued while there was a commercial break.The man was chased in the studio by cameramen and the floor manager and they managed to lock him in a room where he hid until the police came.He then busted the door open and run away from the studio in the nearby fields

I wish they had left the cameras running! this would have been comical to watch

problem is half of cops voted XD last turnaround.  I saw something two days ago that says XD is planning to forcibly evict illegal immigrants from hospitals.


Ok, can we call XD Golden Dawn? I had to reread your post 2 or 3 times before I realized you weren't super excited that cops voted. Having a party abbreviation that's the same as an emote is super annoying.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on June 13, 2012, 01:49:06 pm
It's also XA in Greek and GD in English so I don't know where XD is coming from.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: © tweed on June 13, 2012, 08:35:36 pm
XD is a smilie/emoticon.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 13, 2012, 09:20:49 pm
Ok, can we call XD Golden Dawn?

No. The board rule is that they are to be called Golden Shower.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on June 14, 2012, 03:41:55 am
Isn't that Rule 34 ? ;)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 14, 2012, 06:37:21 am
My gut feeling is that ND is going to beat out SYRIZA.  It should be something like
ND       29
SYRIZA 25
PASOK  10

At this stage the desire to get to a stable governement should be overriding all other concerns. This should be enough for ND-PASOK to get a slim majority. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: LastVoter on June 15, 2012, 12:50:16 am
My gut feeling is that ND is going to beat out SYRIZA.  It should be something like
ND       29
SYRIZA 25
PASOK  10

At this stage the desire to get to a stable governement should be overriding all other concerns. This should be enough for ND-PASOK to get a slim majority. 
lol why would Greeks want a stable government? It's pretty clear 80% of them hate Germany so they might as well go suicide bomb it.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on June 15, 2012, 03:59:21 am
My gut feeling is that ND is going to beat out SYRIZA.  It should be something like
ND       29
SYRIZA 25
PASOK  10

At this stage the desire to get to a stable governement should be overriding all other concerns. This should be enough for ND-PASOK to get a slim majority. 
lol why would Greeks want a stable government? It's pretty clear 80% of them hate Germany so they might as well go suicide bomb it.

Yeah, that'll teach us a lesson. It's attitudes like this that make me certain that the entire Euro is a stupid idea. Mooch off of the participants that are responsible and then throw a fit when mummy won't tolerate it any longer.

For their own sake, I hope the Greek voters are more responsible than that. It'd heard them a lot more than us.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: LastVoter on June 15, 2012, 04:20:59 am
My gut feeling is that ND is going to beat out SYRIZA.  It should be something like
ND       29
SYRIZA 25
PASOK  10

At this stage the desire to get to a stable governement should be overriding all other concerns. This should be enough for ND-PASOK to get a slim majority. 
lol why would Greeks want a stable government? It's pretty clear 80% of them hate Germany so they might as well go suicide bomb it.

Yeah, that'll teach us a lesson. It's attitudes like this that make me certain that the entire Euro is a stupid idea. Mooch off of the participants that are responsible and then throw a fit when mummy won't tolerate it any longer.

For their own sake, I hope the Greek voters are more responsible than that. It'd heard them a lot more than us.
Europe fed Greeks well enough before Euro.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on June 15, 2012, 07:43:05 am
My prediction:

ND 28
SRYZA 26
PASOK 14
DIMAR 7
ANEL 6
KKE 4
XA 4
DX! 3
LAOS 2 (yes, I think it'll overperform)
Greens 2
Others 3


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 15, 2012, 10:09:06 am
I've read rumours lately that recent opinion polls (which haven't been published) show ND ahead.  Hope the election doesn't end up like that. 



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on June 15, 2012, 10:13:24 am
It's a shame the Greens and SYRIZA couldn't work something out.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 15, 2012, 11:51:52 am
I'd use ChrA.




Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on June 15, 2012, 04:59:42 pm
After having supported SYRIZA last elections, and after switching my support to PASOK last month, I switch back my endorsement to Tsipiras. He HAS to win this election. Capitalism as we know it in Europe is not working. Tsipiras could change it. Samaras or Venizelos will not.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on June 16, 2012, 05:12:53 am
My gut feeling is that ND is going to beat out SYRIZA.  It should be something like
ND       29
SYRIZA 25
PASOK  10

At this stage the desire to get to a stable governement should be overriding all other concerns. This should be enough for ND-PASOK to get a slim majority. 
lol why would Greeks want a stable government? It's pretty clear 80% of them hate Germany so they might as well go suicide bomb it.

Yeah, that'll teach us a lesson. It's attitudes like this that make me certain that the entire Euro is a stupid idea. Mooch off of the participants that are responsible and then throw a fit when mummy won't tolerate it any longer.

For their own sake, I hope the Greek voters are more responsible than that. It'd heard them a lot more than us.
Europe fed Greeks well enough before Euro.
This.
And Europe was the one which closed both eyes when Greece,Austria,Germany and 90% of the countries were falsifying their budgets so that they could be within the Maastricht Criteria...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 16, 2012, 12:58:25 pm
What I'm hoping is that maybe there's been a "shy SYRIZA" factor here.  For any Greeks on this board, are there any people who might be somewhat embarrassed to say that they want to vote for SYRIZA, given the way it's being demonized as a party that will lead to a "Grexit?" 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on June 16, 2012, 02:28:20 pm
Consider that if I remember correctly the 'radical' parties in general slightly underpolled at the last election, and there wasn't a terribly big expectation that ND would slip below 20%.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 16, 2012, 03:14:37 pm
Any results yet?  This board seems awfully quiet for election day.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on June 16, 2012, 03:25:37 pm
Is it morning in Greece already?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 16, 2012, 03:39:44 pm
Is it morning in Greece already?

It's nearly midnight Saturday into Sunday.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on June 16, 2012, 03:49:08 pm
I hope ND/PASOK can win enough for a majority...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 16, 2012, 04:00:37 pm
I hope ND/PASOK can win enough for a majority...
I hope SYRIZA/DIMAR can win enough for a majority. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 16, 2012, 04:06:18 pm
I'm with Nagas, but I also support a Grexit.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on June 16, 2012, 04:09:29 pm
I hope ND/PASOK can win enough for a majority...
I hope SYRIZA/DIMAR can win enough for a majority.  

That won't matter as DIMAR don't want to work with SYRIZA.

The most likely outcome should SYRIZA be the largest party is yet another deadlock actually (even if the KKE finally decide to drop their wearing sectarianism).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 16, 2012, 04:23:33 pm
The Greeks are screwed either way. I feel sorry for them, no population deserves this.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 16, 2012, 04:56:59 pm
I hope ND/PASOK can win enough for a majority...
I hope SYRIZA/DIMAR can win enough for a majority.  

That won't matter as DIMAR don't want to work with SYRIZA.

The most likely outcome should SYRIZA be the largest party is yet another deadlock actually (even if the KKE finally decide to drop their wearing sectarianism).
Really?  I just thought they want guarantees for staying in the Eurozone.  And that Greece won't default. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on June 16, 2012, 04:57:48 pm
I hope ND/PASOK can win enough for a majority...
I hope SYRIZA/DIMAR can win enough for a majority.  

That won't matter as DIMAR don't want to work with SYRIZA.

The most likely outcome should SYRIZA be the largest party is yet another deadlock actually (even if the KKE finally decide to drop their wearing sectarianism).
Really?  I just thought they want guarantees for staying in the Eurozone.  And that Greece won't default. 

Exactly.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 16, 2012, 05:03:55 pm
Oh.  That's what you mean.  Well, that's why I'm hoping for a SYRIZA/DIMAR government.  Anti-austerity, but still some fiscal/Euro competence.  But if DIMAR won't opt for SYRIZA, then my hope: SYRIZA majority! 



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on June 16, 2012, 05:07:05 pm
There is no such thing as "anti-austerity," except as a lie, a dream. The pot at the end of the rainbow to that one is north of the Alps.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on June 16, 2012, 05:12:39 pm
There is no such thing as "anti-austerity," except as a lie, a dream. The pot at the end of the rainbow to that one is north of the Alps.

The pot was already given over at very low interest rates years earlier and the leprechauns now want it back and they are very, very persistent.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on June 16, 2012, 05:21:39 pm
There is no such thing as "anti-austerity," except as a lie, a dream. The pot at the end of the rainbow to that one is north of the Alps.

The pot was already given over at very low interest rates years earlier and the leprechauns now want it back and they are very, very persistent.

Just give it to them - not what they had but enough to prevent disaster from occurring. The well-being of one's neighbor is one's well-being, as well, to some extent. I would say the same about post WWI reparations as well.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on June 16, 2012, 05:25:19 pm
There is no such thing as "anti-austerity," except as a lie, a dream. The pot at the end of the rainbow to that one is north of the Alps.

The pot was already given over at very low interest rates years earlier and the leprechauns now want it back and they are very, very persistent.

Just give it to them - not what they had but enough to prevent disaster from occurring. The well-being of one's neighbor is one's well-being, as well, to some extent. I would say the same about post WWI reparations as well.

That's not enough. And it is a bit late in the day to speak of disaster not occurring - it has already happened, it just hasn't made itself clear yet in all its manifestations.

You are right of course. But try telling that to Franzl and the rest of "we all need to be modern" fetishists. Or the Axel-Springer group for that matter.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Zuza on June 16, 2012, 06:15:08 pm
I hope ND/PASOK can win enough for a majority...
I hope SYRIZA/DIMAR can win enough for a majority.  

That won't matter as DIMAR don't want to work with SYRIZA.

The most likely outcome should SYRIZA be the largest party is yet another deadlock actually (even if the KKE finally decide to drop their wearing sectarianism).

There is also some chance of SYRIZA+ANEL coalition.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 16, 2012, 06:27:20 pm
Shouldn't some results be in by now?  It's past 2 in the morning in Greece. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on June 16, 2012, 06:28:39 pm
Shouldn't some results be in by now?  It's past 2 in the morning in Greece. 

The election is tomorrow.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 16, 2012, 06:36:45 pm
Oh.  Lol sorry I'd assumed it would be today (since they normally vote on Sunday in Europe).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on June 16, 2012, 06:40:37 pm
Oh.  Lol sorry I'd assumed it would be today (since they normally vote on Sunday in Europe).

They do. Today is Saturday.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 16, 2012, 06:44:03 pm
Oh.  Lol sorry I'd assumed it would be today (since they normally vote on Sunday in Europe).

They do. Today is Saturday.
Darn it!  I'm really discombobulated right now.  (slept until 1 today, so I'm kinda in that state where I slept so long that it's like I didn't sleep enough).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Lief 🐋 on June 16, 2012, 10:39:56 pm
Greece's Euro victory will push SYRIZA over the line.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 17, 2012, 12:02:05 am
Greece's Euro victory will push SYRIZA over the line.
I hope you're right.  Imagine what it'll be like if they face Germany in the quarterfinal five days from now (since it's officially Sunday now where I am...yay).  Eesh.  


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on June 17, 2012, 12:09:37 am
My prediction:

29% ND
28% SYRIZA
14% PASOK
  6% DIMAR
  5% ANEL
  5% KKE
  4% XA
  9% Others


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 17, 2012, 12:22:01 am
I just voted for ND for the first time in my life.
The truth is that we face a terrible choice. Our house is on fire and we have to vote either for an incompetent firefighter (Samaras) or for an arsonist (Tsipras). I just hope that I will be able to live for the rest of my life with what I did just a few minutes ago.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on June 17, 2012, 12:32:45 am
When can we expect the exit polls again ?

8pm Athens time (which would be 7 here) ?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 17, 2012, 12:39:39 am
When can we expect the exit polls again ?

8pm Athens time (which would be 7 here) ?
They close at 7 pm Athens time which is 6 pm where you are, and 12 pm where I am.  Oh boy, I'll have a tense afternoon.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 03:33:27 am
Couldn't help see the political significance last night, yeah. Especially in Sifakis' (shown live but only partially translated, of course...) ramblings afterwards. Screw the EU, screw the UEFA, screw the refs, screw the IMF, screw the defeatist press, screw the defeatist austeritymongers. Greece shall rise again, alone and in opposition.
That was not presumably what he said, it certainly wasn't what the translator said, but it was the vibe you got from the tone of voice and the partial translation.
And on friday the second German-dominated Großeuropa will crash and burn. In Danzig. How fitting.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ObserverIE on June 17, 2012, 05:06:11 am
Greece's Euro victory will push SYRIZA over the line.
I hope you're right.  Imagine what it'll be like if they face Germany in the quarterfinal five days from now (since it's officially Sunday now where I am...yay).  Eesh.  

The match will be replayed as many times as needed until the right result is produced.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 05:07:45 am
Positive side aspects of what was planned for the first game will be missing from the replay, however.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Velasco on June 17, 2012, 05:38:50 am
From bailout country to bailout country: good luck, Greece. If you are religious, guys, just pray: God save us from our incompetent firemen. If you are agnostic like me just cross your fingers. I read yesterday in times like these which has been deemed radical now seems a no-nonsense approach. Even Samaras talks about a renegotiation.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on June 17, 2012, 08:48:12 am
I just voted for ND for the first time in my life.
The truth is that we face a terrible choice. Our house is on fire and we have to vote either for an incompetent firefighter (Samaras) or for an arsonist (Tsipras). I just hope that I will be able to live for the rest of my life with what I did just a few minutes ago.

I agree with this post, unfortunately. I can't believe I want ND to win, but Tsipras and SYRIZA represents everything I loathe about the left and they're the reason why I'll never be a "real" left-winger despite everything.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 09:17:11 am
from the guardian:

"News in from Helena Smith, our correspondent in Athens, on the latest polls being conducted on behalf of political parties ahead of the close of the ballot at 7pm local time (5pm BST).

I have just spoken to a senior cadre in the socialist Pasok party where polling results are being monitored on a two-hourly basis. "The next few hours are crucial as the rush to vote has only just begun among young people," he told me. "From now to the close of the election polling stations are likely to be packed."

Latest results, he said, show the conservative "pro-European" New Democracy party in the lead with 29% of the vote closely followed by the anti-bailout far-left Syriza party with 27%. Pasok is in third with 12%. The small European-oriented Democrat Left has around 6%. Support for the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party, which was catapulted into parliament for the first time since the collapse of military rule in 1974, was also at 6%. Figures for the communist KKE party and anti-austerity Independent Greeks party were not available."


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on June 17, 2012, 09:38:36 am
Interestingly, I found out that I have a Greek cable channel on my TV.

Will probably use this ERT World one for the Exit Polls.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 17, 2012, 11:02:33 am
BBC say its very close, for what that's worth.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on June 17, 2012, 11:03:19 am
ND seems to have a teeny, tiny edge over the arsonists.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on June 17, 2012, 11:04:58 am
ND seems to have a teeny, tiny edge over the arsonists.

Of course, the real question is whether a pro stability majority can be found. ND finishing on top doesn't mean we won't still have chaos...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 11:05:34 am
One would think that ND (and PASOK) would be the arsonists in the image. Seeing as the building is clearly burning already.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: netzero19 on June 17, 2012, 11:10:02 am
First exit poll results via Mega TV:
New Democracy - 27.5-30.5%,
 Syriza - 27-30%,
 Pasok - 10-12%,
Independent Greeks - 6-7.5%,
Golden Dawn - 6-7.5%,
Democratic Left - 5.5-6.5%,
Communists - 5-6%.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 11:10:55 am
That's not going to produce a pro-bailout majority, is it?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 11:11:21 am
First exit poll by Star Channel: ND 27-30, SYRIZA 26-29, PASOK 10-12, Ind Greeks 6-8, Golden Dawn 6-8, Dem Left 6-7, KKE 5-6 #Greece2012

#Greece 2012 Megatv poll: ND 27.5-30.5 Syriza 27.30 Pasok 10-12 IndGreeks 6-7.5

SYRIZA 28, ND 27.5, PASOK 13, Dem Left 7.5, Ind Greeks 7.5, GD 5.5, KKE 5.5 Skai TV opinion poll, not exit poll #Greece2012


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 11:11:27 am
Exit polls show

ND               27.5-30.5
SYRIZA         27   - 30
PASOK          10  -  12
Ind Greeks     6  -   7.5
Golden Dawn  6  -  7.5


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on June 17, 2012, 11:12:40 am
That's not going to produce a pro-bailout majority, is it?

It might if ND gets the 1st place bonus.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 11:13:00 am
Quite the rally for the two new major parties of Greece. Shower and Dimar holding, PASOK, ANEL, Commies down a few points. All others combined must be down quite a lot.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 11:13:32 am
That's not going to produce a pro-bailout majority, is it?

It might if ND gets the 1st place bonus.

Operative word at the moment being "if".


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Phony Moderate on June 17, 2012, 11:18:06 am
All things considered, PASOK have actually done quite well.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: bore on June 17, 2012, 11:19:12 am
This should be fun...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 11:20:10 am
This should be fun...

Unless you're a trader tomorrow morning.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: bore on June 17, 2012, 11:24:46 am
This should be fun...

Unless you're a trader tomorrow morning.

Or a Greek today.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 11:24:50 am
Pub Issue (opinion poll): Syriza 31-25, ND 30-25, Pasok 15-11, IndGreeks 9-6, DemLeft 9-6, KKE 7-4, GolDawn 7-4, Recreation 3-1


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on June 17, 2012, 11:27:20 am
Nailbiter until the end...

Well, I am going to forget the political aspect of this and focus solely on the entertainment value this might have (especially since there is another election today for which I'll focus only on the political aspect :P).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 11:27:35 am
Quick calculation that may be wildly wrong, using midpoints of the exit polls:

ND c.122 (with 50 seat bonus)
Syriza c.71
PASOK c.28
Ind Greeks c. 19
Golden Dawn c.19

122+28=150, so an ND+PASOK coalition would scrape an overall majority with the 50 extra seats, but they'd need Democratic Left to make it work.



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 11:28:23 am
This should be fun...

Unless you're a trader tomorrow morning.
Oh, they'll be having an eventful day. Not that Europe's future depends on Greece, of course. That's Spain and Italy you want.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 11:31:16 am
Anyone with link to results

May 5th results were at

http://www.ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012a/public/index.html?lang=en

but that one does not work anymore


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 11:32:24 am
http://ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012b/public/index.html

See what they did there?

Oh yeah, some exit pollster says one third of voters changed their votes compared to forty days ago.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 11:34:19 am
Folks might want the English language version - no offence intended, Lewis (http://ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012b/public/index.html?lang=en#{%22cls%22:%22main%22,%22params%22:{}})


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on June 17, 2012, 11:34:29 am
Well, Nazis will have more or less the same results they had last month... That's disgusting.... I think they could reach 8% :(

However, if SYRIZA wins, it'll be a good day for Europe, Spain AND Greece. So, that could balance the XA thing.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 11:37:19 am
Folks might want the English language version - no offence intended, Lewis (http://ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012b/public/index.html?lang=en#{%22cls%22:%22main%22,%22params%22:{}})
I am offended.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 11:38:28 am
neither does   athens news.gr   im assuming they crashed cause it was up earlier.  hope someone finds one that works


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 11:39:30 am
I didn't think they'd come that close before seeing these exits, but i'm thinking Syriza have won... Greece are screwed either way.

Anyway, here comes the double-dip.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on June 17, 2012, 11:45:47 am
English results (http://www.ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012b/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"level","params":{"level":"epik","id":1}})

Nothing in yet though


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 11:46:10 am
     June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Greek police said a group of 10
people wearing motorcycle helmets to disguise their identity
attacked two police officers guarding a polling station in the
central Athens neighborhood of Exarhia.
     The group set the ballot box at the station on fire,
according to a phone text message from the police. The two
officers were taken to hospital for their injuries.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 11:46:28 am
Golden Dawn, Greece's far-right party, quoted by Athens News: "Our struggle will continue inside and outside parliament to get rid of the memorandum." "Memorandum" is the official term for the terms of the bailouts.

Golden Dawn chief Nikos Michaloliakos makes televised statement: We will rise from 6th party to 4th party, we will fight the memorandum in and outside parliament.



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 11:47:30 am
Golden Dawn, Greece's far-right party, quoted by Athens News: "Our struggle will continue inside and outside parliament to get rid of the memorandum."
I still wouldn't get into coalition with them if I were Tsipras, Starkie.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on June 17, 2012, 11:51:01 am
Looks like my prediction was almost correct, based on the exit polls.

Don't think that there will be enough seats for a ND-PASOK government though.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 11:54:40 am
Looks like my prediction was almost correct, based on the exit polls.

Don't think that there will be enough seats for a ND-PASOK government though.

ND-PASOK-DL could swing it, but only if ND win.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 11:56:41 am
insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.   thats what we may have going on here.  in 2 ways really:  people wanting a ND-PASOK govt and just have an election even.  how many elections can greece have even?   if it remains stalemate i would imagine thats when the military steps in..


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on June 17, 2012, 11:57:15 am
If you press on the map, there are already some results shown - but nothing on the national table. Why is it? Just delay in tabulating?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 11:57:39 am
Maria Kagkelidou tweets: New Democracy supporters outside electoral kiosk look uncomfortable. Not many politicians wishing to comment, many cancelling on media


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 11:59:11 am
If you press on the map, there are already some results shown - but nothing on the national table. Why is it? Just delay in tabulating?
Perhaps they're considering a national tally from a handful of precincts too misleading or something. I do recall they didn't add an official seats projections until some time later last time.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 17, 2012, 11:59:59 am
Maybe I should start reading the Weimar Republic history.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 12:00:34 pm
Vote breakdown by age:

18-34 SYRIZA 33%, ND 20%
35-54 SYRIZA 34%, ND 24%
55+ ND 39%, SYRIZA 20%


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 12:01:38 pm
insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.   thats what we may have going on here.  in 2 ways really:  people wanting a ND-PASOK govt and just have an election even.  how many elections can greece have even?   if it remains stalemate i would imagine thats when the military steps in..

If I was buying into this whole "Merkel running the show" rhetoric, i'd just say that she wouldn't let it happen so as to avoid poor stereotypes.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 17, 2012, 12:02:13 pm
Wow.  I was right.  This will be a tense afternoon.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on June 17, 2012, 12:03:27 pm
From the scattered precincts it looks that, aside from those anyway below the threshold, the big looser will be KKE.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on June 17, 2012, 12:03:54 pm
Numbers seem to come in and with about 15% in in a few districts, it seems ND is gaining the most.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 12:04:19 pm
Click on election districts on the Greek election site and you can see who is currently leading in each one.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 12:05:19 pm
Numbers seem to come in and with about 15% in in a few districts, it seems ND is gaining the most.

Seem to be leading in most election districts, but there's nowhere more than 50%.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: bore on June 17, 2012, 12:07:33 pm
Whats the reporting pattern like in Greece? Do the left wing areas come in later than the right wing ones?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Hash on June 17, 2012, 12:08:50 pm
Go away, Stark. We don't want your drooling over Nazis.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on June 17, 2012, 12:09:08 pm
Well, yeah, SYRYZA is doing better - as does ND. And most of the improved performance is the consolidation of the previously splintered vote: the KKE fall is definitely part of the same story.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on June 17, 2012, 12:09:34 pm
Whats the reporting pattern like in Greece? Do the left wing areas come in later than the right wing ones?

Last time I think the rural areas came in for the most part before the cities and Athens came in last, but I could be misremembering.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 12:11:13 pm
Whats the reporting pattern like in Greece? Do the left wing areas come in later than the right wing ones?

Last time I think the rural areas came in for the most part before the cities and Athens came in last, but I could be misremembering.
No, that is quite right.

And actually I have no problem whatsoever with Stark discussing the election performance of nazis. This is an elections board.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on June 17, 2012, 12:13:40 pm
In many areas so far, the ND is doubling its share from May.

Could be offset by a strong SYRIZA showing in the Athens area though (which currently is the case).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: bore on June 17, 2012, 12:13:53 pm
Whats the reporting pattern like in Greece? Do the left wing areas come in later than the right wing ones?

Last time I think the rural areas came in for the most part before the cities and Athens came in last, but I could be misremembering.

Thanks :)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on June 17, 2012, 12:16:56 pm
What has ANEL said about coalitions? I'm trying to work out what SYRIZA's options will be if it wins.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 12:18:33 pm
I assume Athinon is Athens - both districts there are well out.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 17, 2012, 12:20:05 pm
Stark can post bland factual statements about the election, but does not get to drool. Attempts will be made to get him thrown off the forum again.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 12:21:44 pm
from athens news
29%  ND
28.5%  Syriza
11%  PASOK
6.75%  XE
6.75%  IG
6%   DL
5.5%   KKE

Projected allocation of seats


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 17, 2012, 12:22:09 pm
What has ANEL said about coalitions? I'm trying to work out what SYRIZA's options will be if it wins.
According to Wikipedia, ANEL says that any coalition it joins will have to be "center-right" and that it'll have to tear up the memorandum.  So basically they're saying that they won't be taking part in any government.  


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 12:24:44 pm
Just reading that late-deciders chose Tsipras over Samaras 30-25 as preferred Prime Minister. Explains a lot.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 12:25:58 pm
I assume Athinon is Athens - both districts there are well out.
Athinon A is the city of Athens proper. Athinon B is most of her inner and middle suburbs. That's by far the largest constituency in Greece, and is further left on balance than the city proper. Piraeus A is that suburban city plus the lesser Saronic islands and Kythera and the bit of the Peloponnese that are included in Attica for reasons unknown. Piraeus B are the very working class, very lefty portside suburbs west of Piraeus, including Salamis (the most populated of the Saronic islands). Attica are the outer suburban and quasi-rural parts of Attica.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 12:27:34 pm
I assume Athinon is Athens - both districts there are well out.
Athinon A is the city of Athens proper. Athinon B is most of her inner and middle suburbs. That's by far the largest constituency in Greece, and is further left on balance than the city proper. Piraeus A is that suburban city plus the lesser Saronic islands and Kythera and the bit of the Peloponnese that are included in Attica for reasons unknown. Piraeus B are the very working class, very lefty portside suburbs west of Piraeus, including Salamis (the most populated of the Saronic islands). Attica are the outer suburban and quasi-rural parts of Attica.

B being V on the site, correct?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on June 17, 2012, 12:27:54 pm
What has ANEL said about coalitions? I'm trying to work out what SYRIZA's options will be if it wins.

According to Wikipedia, ANEL says that any coalition it joins will have to be "center-right" and that it'll have to tear up the memorandum.  So basically they're saying that they won't be taking part in any government.  

As useless as the f'ing KKE.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 12:29:17 pm
I assume Athinon is Athens - both districts there are well out.
Athinon A is the city of Athens proper. Athinon B is most of her inner and middle suburbs. That's by far the largest constituency in Greece, and is further left on balance than the city proper. Piraeus A is that suburban city plus the lesser Saronic islands and Kythera and the bit of the Peloponnese that are included in Attica for reasons unknown. Piraeus B are the very working class, very lefty portside suburbs west of Piraeus, including Salamis (the most populated of the Saronic islands). Attica are the outer suburban and quasi-rural parts of Attica.

B being V on the site, correct?
Yes, of course. V being the modern (past 1800? years) pronunciation of the second letter of the Greek alphabet.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on June 17, 2012, 12:29:35 pm
Why is this site showing the district results but not the national results ?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 12:29:41 pm
Quite a damning result for democracy if the anti-bailout parties (who've probably won the most votes collectively) are pipped-to-the-post because of the 50-seat bonus.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 12:31:40 pm
According to Public Issue, the minimum percentage required for forming a coalition government (151 seats) is 38.2. Exit polls put the threshold at 37.8 percent.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 12:32:17 pm
Why is this site showing the district results but not the national results ?

District results aren't finalised yet, so they're not showing any national ones.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 12:33:00 pm
Skai TV gives first seat projections from their exit polls: Syriza 28% 124 seats, ND, 27.5% 73 seats, Pasok 13% 33 seats. I


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 12:33:09 pm
I assume Athinon is Athens - both districts there are well out.
Athinon A is the city of Athens proper. Athinon B is most of her inner and middle suburbs. That's by far the largest constituency in Greece, and is further left on balance than the city proper. Piraeus A is that suburban city plus the lesser Saronic islands and Kythera and the bit of the Peloponnese that are included in Attica for reasons unknown. Piraeus B are the very working class, very lefty portside suburbs west of Piraeus, including Salamis (the most populated of the Saronic islands). Attica are the outer suburban and quasi-rural parts of Attica.

B being V on the site, correct?
Yes, of course. V being the modern (past 1800? years) pronunciation of the second letter of the Greek alphabet.

Thanks for both of those.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 12:35:30 pm
I'm quite sure they had a national tally up by this time in the count in may.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Meeker on June 17, 2012, 12:35:57 pm
I'm quite sure they had a national tally up by this time in the count in may.

Indeed. It's rather frustrating.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on June 17, 2012, 12:37:29 pm
Any predictions as to who wins at this point?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: hawkeye59 on June 17, 2012, 12:38:35 pm
I'm quite sure they had a national tally up by this time in the count in may.
and now they do!


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 12:38:48 pm
Map's updated on the government's site.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 12:39:04 pm
interior ministry has national results up


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 12:40:13 pm
syriza - cities  ND - farms...    thats what it looks like to me..


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on June 17, 2012, 12:41:18 pm
Any predictions as to who wins at this point?

Dead heat, basically.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 12:41:36 pm
Antenna TV estimates that New Democracy will win by more than 1 percentage point, Kathimerini reports.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 12:43:31 pm
PASOK actually leading somewhere! Eastern Crete.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 17, 2012, 12:45:23 pm
The final exit poll shows ND ahead by 1-1,5%.  

Projected seats:

ND         127
SYRIZA    72
PASOK    33
ANEL       20
XA           18
DIMAR     16
KKE         14


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 12:46:24 pm
The nonrepresented parties took quite the hit. LAOS at 1.5, a joint list of DX and Drasi and one more outfit at 1.4, Greens at 0.8, Antarsya at 0.3 (one other party that I know nothing about at 0.4).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on June 17, 2012, 12:48:28 pm
PASOK actually leading somewhere! Eastern Crete.

PASOK could announce its new policy was eating babies and it would still win Crete.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 12:48:49 pm
Greek state TV estimates that on those exit numbers New Democracy and Pasok could form a coalition. The 300 seats would be distributed thus:
New Democracy 127 (including the bonus 50 for winning), Syriza 72, Pasok 32, Independent Greeks 21, Golden Dawn 19, Democratic Left 16, Communist Party of Greece 13.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on June 17, 2012, 12:49:25 pm
And now ND(!) is first in Eastern Crete and PASOK is third.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 12:49:59 pm
And now ND(!) is first in Eastern Crete and PASOK is third.
It's a close threeway tie.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 12:50:50 pm
Greek state TV estimates that on those exit numbers New Democracy and Pasok could form a coalition. The 300 seats would be distributed thus:
New Democracy 127 (including the bonus 50 for winning), Syriza 72, Pasok 32, Independent Greeks 21, Golden Dawn 19, Democratic Left 16, Communist Party of Greece 13.

I am a bit sceptical based on how last time around ND and PASOK vote share fell a lot as the couting continued.  But if greek state TV takes into type of trend into account I would be glad to believe this as this is the only real result that could lead to some sort of stability.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 12:52:45 pm
Looks like Greens and LAOS are losing vote share to the larger parties.  Even PASOK is ahead of its vote share in May.  That might change as time goes on but I am surprised.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 01:03:18 pm
23% in. Doesn't look to be getting closer fast enough; I suppose ND will have won.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 01:04:19 pm
Looks like Athens is slower.  That is SYRIZA's last hope.  They are releatively strong there, but so is ND. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on June 17, 2012, 01:06:30 pm
ND is ahead in Athens A  (w/ almost 25% reporting nationwide).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on June 17, 2012, 01:08:46 pm
XA once again strong...bleah.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 01:09:41 pm
ND is ahead in Athens A  (w/ almost 25% reporting nationwide).

I think you are talking about A' Athens.  For V' Athens (which I assume is Athens suburbs whereas A' Athens is central city) which has a much larger voting popluation and SYRIZA is ahead.  Both has about 16% of the vote in while the nation as a whole are 27% in.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ag on June 17, 2012, 01:10:41 pm
ND is ahead in Athens A .

I think you are talking about A' Athens.  

Most definitely. Since that's exactly what I said :))


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 01:11:11 pm
Marella Oppenheim tweets: Here in Athen looks like New Democracy to win. Now the country braces itself for street demos and mayhem.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 01:15:30 pm
ND is ahead in Athens A .

I think you are talking about A' Athens.  

Most definitely. Since that's exactly what I said :))

Ooops.  You are right.  :)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on June 17, 2012, 01:22:23 pm
All the american news organizations seem pretty sure that ND will win. Or at least that's what it seems like on twitter.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 01:26:52 pm
New Democracy could form a coalition with Pasok, but from this tweet from Radiobubble's Spyros Gkelis suggests might not happen.

PASOK officially states that won't participate in any government without SYRIZA in it #Greece2012 #rbnews


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on June 17, 2012, 01:27:23 pm
With 32.4% in:

ND 30.65%
SYRIZA 25.85%
PASOK 12.96%
ANEL 7.41%
SHOWER 6.93%
DIMAR 6.00%
KKE 4.42%
OTHER 5.79%

OTHER is way down from a month ago.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on June 17, 2012, 01:31:32 pm
New Democracy could form a coalition with Pasok, but from this tweet from Radiobubble's Spyros Gkelis suggests might not happen.

PASOK officially states that won't participate in any government without SYRIZA in it #Greece2012 #rbnews

Good old PASOK, pulling defeat from the jaws of victory.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ObserverIE on June 17, 2012, 01:33:24 pm
New Democracy could form a coalition with Pasok, but from this tweet from Radiobubble's Spyros Gkelis suggests might not happen.

PASOK officially states that won't participate in any government without SYRIZA in it #Greece2012 #rbnews

Good old PASOK, pulling defeat from the jaws of victory.

Define "victory".

Map-based visualisation of results here (http://www.igraphics.gr/en/multimedia/2012/06/elections2012b).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 01:34:30 pm
New Democracy could form a coalition with Pasok, but from this tweet from Radiobubble's Spyros Gkelis suggests might not happen.

PASOK officially states that won't participate in any government without SYRIZA in it #Greece2012 #rbnews

If they do that then there will be a third election where PASOK will get less than 3% of the vote.  If a vote for PASOK is really a vote for SYRIZA then why not just vote for SYRIZA and skip the middleman.  If one does not like SYRIZA then just vote for ND.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on June 17, 2012, 01:35:38 pm
New Democracy could form a coalition with Pasok, but from this tweet from Radiobubble's Spyros Gkelis suggests might not happen.

PASOK officially states that won't participate in any government without SYRIZA in it #Greece2012 #rbnews

If that is true, what was the point of even having an election? There will never be a national unity government. This is Weimar! They need a coalition of the sane parties.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 01:36:29 pm
New Democracy could form a coalition with Pasok, but from this tweet from Radiobubble's Spyros Gkelis suggests might not happen.

PASOK officially states that won't participate in any government without SYRIZA in it #Greece2012 #rbnews

SYRIZA-PASOK-ANEL-DIMAR only gets them to 141, so no.



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 01:37:12 pm
How is joining a rightwing government not suicide for PASOK?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 01:40:57 pm
How is joining a rightwing government not suicide for PASOK?

I too would like to know this


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on June 17, 2012, 01:41:28 pm
They wouldn't be any worse off than they were before the election. If the logic is that they want to bring in more parties to share in unpopular decisions because they think they can't survive electorally, well they will never bring the Nazis and Communists together and god help us if those are the only two parties taking an opposition role.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: LastVoter on June 17, 2012, 01:42:21 pm
Why doesn't PASOK just forma  coalition with SYRIZA?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 01:43:43 pm
As votes continue to come in the trend is for SYRIZA to gain at the expense of PASOK whereas ND stays around the same.  It should be the affect of Athens coming in where ND and SYRIZA are strong and PASOK is weak.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on June 17, 2012, 01:45:00 pm
Why doesn't PASOK just forma  coalition with SYRIZA?

They probably will if SYRIZA manages to win. But that is looking more and more unlikely.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 01:45:29 pm
Why doesn't PASOK just forma  coalition with SYRIZA?

They'd only have like 100 seats and you need 151 for a majority.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on June 17, 2012, 01:46:12 pm
37.5% in:

ND: 30.53
SYRIZA: 25.99
PASOK: 12.87
ANEL: 7.41
Golden Shower: 6.95
DIMAR: 6.01
KKE: 4.43


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on June 17, 2012, 01:46:33 pm
How is joining a rightwing government not suicide for PASOK?

Why is what PASOK has done up to now not electoral suicide? If they can survive 2 elections with a viable leftist alternative it can survive an ND-PASOK government.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 01:47:32 pm
Official government projection - 29.6% ND, 27.1% Syriza.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 01:48:05 pm
Syriza is closing the gap however...   i see a 3rd election...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 01:49:02 pm
30.50 to 26.00 atm. Lol.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 01:50:44 pm
KKE heading for the worst result in it's history. lol.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 01:53:31 pm
ND spokesperson saying there's gonna ask Syriza for a grand coalition. No chance.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on June 17, 2012, 01:55:28 pm
40.2% in:

ND 30.45
SYRIZA 26.04
PASOK 12.85
ANEL 7.43
Nazis 6.96
DIMAR 6.04
KKE 4.39
OTHER 5.83


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 01:58:13 pm
Reading the article below, if there is a third election because PASOK refuses to join ND then it is the fault of the 2 large parities and not itself, at least according to PASOK.


     June 17 (ANA-MPA) -- PASOK should not participate in any
government that did not have the Radical Leftist Coalition
(SYRIZA) within it, top flight PASOK cadre Anna Diamantopoulou
said during a discussion with reporters at PASOK's offices on
Sunday.
     Asked whether the country could withstand a third round of
elections, Diamantopoulou said that responsibility for forming
a government belonged to the two 'big' parties and that SYRIZA
should take on responsibility for leading the country to
elections.
     She noted that the ND-PASOK coalition could not work again
because it had been 'battered' by the people and that the
country could not be governed by 41 percent of the electorate
with 59 percent opposed.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 17, 2012, 02:04:12 pm
Holy $h*t, what what the f--k have the PASOK folks been smoking?  Are they honestly hoping to provoke new elections?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 02:07:14 pm
Panos Kammenos, leader of the Independent Greeks, a right-wing party that could have been in line to ally with New Democracy has told the press that the party is keen to support a government that will condemn the bailout agreements – that would in effect rule out a deal with New Democracy.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on June 17, 2012, 02:07:35 pm
It would be nice if someone would actually step up to the plate in that country and not constantly try to shift the burden to someone else.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 02:09:14 pm
If this woman is reflecting PASOK's actual views, my guess is that the party is considering that any coalition with ND is going to damage it very badly electorally for a clear decade - and give Syriza a chance at a majority at the 2016 elections - because the bailout if it continues will hurt their working-class voters (of course, so too would a default).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 02:09:52 pm
http://www.skai.gr/ekloges2012  great results table graphic thing here


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on June 17, 2012, 02:10:05 pm
It would be nice if someone would actually step up to the plate in that country and not constantly try to shift the burden to someone else.

ND has, sort of.  (Besides the whole pandering/preparing to blame the Germans by saying they'll "renegotiate" the bailout agreement).


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on June 17, 2012, 02:11:48 pm
Reading the article below, if there is a third election because PASOK refuses to join ND then it is the fault of the 2 large parities and not itself, at least according to PASOK.


     June 17 (ANA-MPA) -- PASOK should not participate in any
government that did not have the Radical Leftist Coalition
(SYRIZA) within it, top flight PASOK cadre Anna Diamantopoulou
said during a discussion with reporters at PASOK's offices on
Sunday.
     Asked whether the country could withstand a third round of
elections, Diamantopoulou said that responsibility for forming
a government belonged to the two 'big' parties and that SYRIZA
should take on responsibility for leading the country to
elections.
     She noted that the ND-PASOK coalition could not work again
because it had been 'battered' by the people and that the
country could not be governed by 41 percent of the electorate
with 59 percent opposed.


Thats interesting, because PASOK had no problem governing with 43% of the electorate in 2009


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on June 17, 2012, 02:14:49 pm
PASOK's leader has said that Syriza should be in any coalition - BBC.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 17, 2012, 02:17:32 pm
It would be nice if someone would actually step up to the plate in that country and not constantly try to shift the burden to someone else.
It is sad the way the Greek politicians' inability to step up is probably giving the Germans more reason to think that Greeks are just a bunch of lazy slackers. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Velasco on June 17, 2012, 02:19:57 pm
She noted that the ND-PASOK coalition could not work again
because it had been 'battered' by the people and that the
country could not be governed by 41 percent of the electorate
with 59 percent opposed.


Thats interesting, because PASOK had no problem governing with 43% of the electorate in 2009

Not really a good comparison; PASOK and ND polled together almost 80% and 43% today.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on June 17, 2012, 02:21:06 pm
She noted that the ND-PASOK coalition could not work again
because it had been 'battered' by the people and that the
country could not be governed by 41 percent of the electorate
with 59 percent opposed.


Thats interesting, because PASOK had no problem governing with 43% of the electorate in 2009

Not really a good comparison; PASOK and ND polled together almost 80% against 43% today.

Yeah but ND wasn't in government.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Velasco on June 17, 2012, 02:22:26 pm
ND was in the Papademos government if I am not wrong.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 17, 2012, 02:27:38 pm
ND was in the Papademos government if I am not wrong.
But not the Papandreau one. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on June 17, 2012, 02:28:53 pm
SYRIZA would gain nothing from being part of a coalition they're not leading. It's not going to happen.

In the end PASOK will probably feel forced to join ND, but they're aware that doing so will mean confirming SYRIZA as the major centre-left party in the country for decades to come, and if things go bad for the coalition might also mean death for the entire party. So naturally they're at least going to try to get as many as possible to dip their hands in the blood.    


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: True Federalist on June 17, 2012, 02:29:18 pm
I know that it would be extremely shaky, but is there any chance of ND forming a government without PASOK?  Perhaps an ND/DIMAR government if some more PASOK members defect to DIMAR?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 02:31:10 pm
Golden Dawn   6,95%   188.708   -0,0%  change

opinion polls showed 3.9% before the blackout.   what does it mean when the only party seemingly unaffected by the last 6 weeks are the neo-nazis?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on June 17, 2012, 02:31:22 pm
13 out of 14 SYRIZA districts have a lower % reporting than nationally, good news for them.

Edit: Nevermind, seems some parts of the Greek elections website update faster than others.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 02:32:25 pm
Thats interesting, because PASOK had no problem governing with 43% of the electorate in 2009

This was exactly what I was thinking a few minutes after I posted the PASOK position.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Velasco on June 17, 2012, 02:32:46 pm
ND was in the Papademos government if I am not wrong.
But not the Papandreau one.  
Yes but what do you mean saying this? The fact is that there's still a majority against the memorandum and this is the reason why ND and PASOK are below their former numbers.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 02:33:52 pm
Golden Dawn   6,95%   188.708   -0,0%  change

opinion polls showed 3.9% before the blackout.   what does it mean when the only party seemingly unaffected by the last 6 weeks are the neo-nazis?
Either that there's a shy nazi factor or that something in the last two weeks worked in their favor?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 02:34:54 pm
It would be nice if someone would actually step up to the plate in that country and not constantly try to shift the burden to someone else.
It is sad the way the Greek politicians' inability to step up is probably giving the Germans more reason to think that Greeks are just a bunch of lazy slackers. 

Or that the Greeks are a bunch of very smart game theory players and they are doing a good cop (ND/PASOK) bad cop (SYRIZA) con job on the Germans and rest of EU.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 02:37:06 pm
Golden Dawn   6,95%   188.708   -0,0%  change

opinion polls showed 3.9% before the blackout.   what does it mean when the only party seemingly unaffected by the last 6 weeks are the neo-nazis?
Either that there's a shy nazi factor or that something in the last two weeks worked in their favor?
I tend to guess that some of the communist votes went over the Golden Dawn.  They have similar social bases.  Whereas the communists are more of the same the Golden Dawn is at least proposing new radical solutions.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: True Federalist on June 17, 2012, 02:37:28 pm
Golden Dawn   6,95%   188.708   -0,0%  change

opinion polls showed 3.9% before the blackout.   what does it mean when the only party seemingly unaffected by the last 6 weeks are the neo-nazis?

DIMAR has about the same share of the vote as last time as well, but both DIMAR and XA are losing seats because the shares of the microparties are down.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 17, 2012, 02:38:58 pm
ND was in the Papademos government if I am not wrong.
But not the Papandreau one.  
Yes but what do you mean saying this? The fact is that there's still a majority against the memorandum and this is the reason why ND and PASOK are below their former numbers.
What I'm saying, and what Jaichind is saying, is that PASOK claims that a government whose parties got 41% between them wouldn't have democratic legitimacy, yet in 2009, they had no problem forming a government whose only party got 43%.  I didn't realize that there's a magic number between 41 and 43 that they think gives democratic legitimacy.  


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on June 17, 2012, 02:42:58 pm
So will there be a third election now?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 02:44:24 pm
 
     June 17 (New York Times) -- Alexis Tsipras, Leader of Syriza
Party, Concedes in Greek Election


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 02:45:33 pm
     Athens, Greece (AP) -- The pro-bailout New Democracy party
came in first Sunday in Greece's national election, and its
leader has proposed forming a pro-euro coalition government.
     New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras says "the Greek people
today voted for Greece to remain on its European path and in
the eurozone."
     He says voters chose "policies that will bring jobs,
growth, justice and security.
     His party beat the anti-bailout Syriza party, which wanted
to cancel Greece's international bailouts. Syriza chief Alexis
Tsipras has conceded the election.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 02:46:30 pm
     June 17 (AFP) -- The leader of Greece's anti-austerity
radical leftist party Syriza on Sunday conceded defeat in a
general election and turned down his conservative rival's offer
to join a national unity government.
     "I spoke to (New Democracy leader Antonis) Samaras to
congratulate him. He can form a government," said Alexis
Tsipras, whose party came second with 27.1 percent of the vote
according to the first official estimates.
     "We will be here as the opposition, we represent a
majority of people opposed to the bailout deal," he said.
     hec-cb/dt/jmm


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 02:46:46 pm
So will there be a third election now?

yes...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Velasco on June 17, 2012, 02:48:28 pm
What I'm saying, and what Jaichind is saying, is that PASOK claims that a government whose parties got 41% between them wouldn't have democratic legitimacy, yet in 2009, they had no problem forming a government whose only party got 43%.  I didn't realize that there's a magic number between 41 and 43 that they think gives democratic legitimacy. 

Because the election that PASOK won was a "normal" one,  before the memorandum. This time makes sense what PASOK spokeswoman is saying.

Syriza is ahead in Samos, a KKE stronghold.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on June 17, 2012, 02:57:53 pm
What I'm saying, and what Jaichind is saying, is that PASOK claims that a government whose parties got 41% between them wouldn't have democratic legitimacy, yet in 2009, they had no problem forming a government whose only party got 43%.  I didn't realize that there's a magic number between 41 and 43 that they think gives democratic legitimacy.  

Because the election that PASOK won was a "normal" one,  before the memorandum. This time makes sense what PASOK spokeswoman is saying.

Syriza is ahead in Samos, a KKE stronghold.

An election is an election. It isn't invalid just because the issues in one are different from the issues in another.

Another election is not likely to produce any more satisfactory result than this one, as long as ND and SYRIZA are at loggerheads.

Besides, what PASOK is asking for is basically that all the non-KKE/Golden Dawn parties form an unpopular coalition, forcing anyone who is against the government to vote KKE or Golden Dawn. This is a recipie for Golden Dawn's emergence as a big national party, the worst possible scenario. It is absolustely craven for PASOK to puts is own party interest ahead to risk this. They are making Samaras into Bruning and themselves into the hapless German SPD.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 03:00:25 pm
ND's lead in eastern Crete down to two votes.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Velasco on June 17, 2012, 03:06:35 pm
 

An election is an election. It isn't invalid just because the issues in one are different from the issues in another.

Another election is not likely to produce any more satisfactory result than this one, as long as ND and SYRIZA are at loggerheads.

Besides, what PASOK is asking for is basically that all the non-KKE/Golden Dawn parties form an unpopular coalition, forcing anyone who is against the government to vote KKE or Golden Dawn. This is a recipie for Golden Dawn's emergence as a big national party, the worst possible scenario. It is absolustely craven for PASOK to puts is own party interest ahead to risk this. They are making Samaras into Bruning and themselves into the hapless German SPD.

I didn't say that the election is invalid. Your argumentation makes sense but a "national unity" government also does. Brüning's government hadn't parliamentary support; he was appointed by Hindenburg and made laws by decree.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 03:09:38 pm
...which is precisely what Europe wants (with Merkel as Hindenburg) but the Greek constitution bans it and prescribes new elections instead if Brüning can't get the SPD onboard.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on June 17, 2012, 03:10:27 pm
A national unity government isn't going to happen. All PASOK is doing is deepening the crisis by preventing the country from having a badly needed government.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 03:11:18 pm
Euro is up 2 cents on US dollar since the exit polls.  If PASOK refuses to join ND gov it will go the other direction real soon.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: hawkeye59 on June 17, 2012, 03:15:17 pm
How likely would be a ND-PASOK coalition, with Venizelos as PM?
Also, is PASOK just bluffing?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2012, 03:18:28 pm
     June 17 (Bloomberg) -- European governments indicated a
willingness to adjust the terms of Greece’s bailout package as
long as a new government “swiftly” emerges from today’s
closely fought election.
     “The Eurogroup expects the Troika institutions to return
to Athens as soon as a new government is in place to exchange
views with the new government on the way forward,” euro-area
finance ministers, known as the Eurogroup, said in an e-mailed
statement in Brussels tonight.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 03:20:50 pm
with that kind of coalition greece will burn...    pasok lost its mandate..  they are not change...  its like us voting democrats into congress and the white house for change..  you not going to get change from the same two parties uve been voting for for the last 30 years (hundreds in our case)  the may election made it clear that the greeks want change.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on June 17, 2012, 03:22:12 pm
Don't have computer access unfortunately, just skimming through everything with my phone, but it's interesting to see SYRIZA basically replacing PASOK (and PASOK replacing KKE) in a manner reminiscent of Greece's old two-and-a-half party system.

Never got to post my analysis of the last polls; these results are similar to what I was expecting, though I was thinking there'd be a closer margin. Wouldn't be surprised to see SYRIZA close the gap a bit with late returns, though, just like they did last month. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 03:31:07 pm
Zakynthos is all in.

Syriza 34.7 (+18.7)
ND 28.3 (+7.2)
PASOK 11.7 (-3.9)
KKE 7.6 (-5.6)
ChrA 5.5 (-0.6)
Dimar 4.2 (-0.8)
Anel 4.1 (-1.3)

turnout 55.2, don't have the comparison figure but raw votes cast appear to be a tiny handful fewer than last time.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Јas on June 17, 2012, 03:55:57 pm
Just 1 vote for the Farmer Labour party (PAEKE) so far.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 04:02:06 pm
Samos all in.

Syriza 25.5 (+11.5)
ND 24.6 (+7.3)
KKE 18.3 (-6.4)
PASOK 10.8 (-1.1)
ChrA 5.9 (+0.8)
Anel 5.7 (-2.8)
Dimar 4.6 (-0.3)

turnout 51.0%

Fun fact: Syriza didn't win any of the three islands the constituency is made up from.

Samos itself went 28.1-24.5 ND, Ikaria remains in KKE hands though it was close at 34.1-31.4, and tiny Fournoi was actually won by PASOK in a close three way tie with KKE (who won there last time) and ND.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 17, 2012, 04:12:07 pm
(http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02251/1806POLLS_2251187c.jpg)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on June 17, 2012, 04:16:47 pm
Of course, the 'anti-bailout' SYRIZA's campaign consists of promising an even bigger bailout, even though it's not theirs to promise.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 04:18:29 pm
Well, "anti-bailout" is a ridiculous term.



Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 04:26:27 pm
ND finally drops under 30%.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on June 17, 2012, 04:42:15 pm
Could ND be allowed to form a minority government and PASOK could give it confidence without joining the government?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay on June 17, 2012, 04:44:46 pm
(http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02251/1806POLLS_2251187c.jpg)

I wonder how one can seriously rank Goden Dawn (their name would be the only fancy thing they have) in any part, that'd barely be a political party, but merely an anti-foreigners militia, and a quite efficient and appreciated one when it comes to violently wipe out foreigners from the center of Athens if I believe what said once the quite good French journalist in Greece Alexia Kefalas, apparently in some districts they became a kind of unofficial police that people call first.

And more generally yeah, this way to show things is kinda twisted.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on June 17, 2012, 04:46:46 pm
ATHENS--The radical left Syriza party that won second place in Sunday's Greek elections will not participate in a government with the conservative winner, New Democracy, which is expected to form a coalition with the Socialist Pasok party this week.

"We will fight tooth and nail to persuade Syriza to participate," said a senior official of Pasok, whose leader has called repeatedly for a broad government of national unity. "But failing that, we will not leave the country ungoverned," he said.

Pasok officials added that they would seek to form a government with New Democracy and smaller parties such as the Democratic Left.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120617-701186.html

Such a government would have 160+ votes, similar to or more than PASOK started with in 2009.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on June 17, 2012, 04:49:44 pm
Tonight on CNBC, Michelle Caruso-Cabrera leads CNBC special documentary on "A Greek Tragedy." 8PM (eastern US, I assume)

Watch here
http://www.zahistation.com/watch-cnbc-live


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on June 17, 2012, 04:53:09 pm
As expected really... most surprising thing is that XA's vote more or less held steady.

See you in this thread again in six months time.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay on June 17, 2012, 05:08:34 pm
What the heck?

I'm on itélé for French elections and their journalists (not the one I mentioned earlier), just said Golden Dawn would be part of the new govt.

Nah, it's just that this journalist might be very tired or something...(isn't it??)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: The Mikado on June 17, 2012, 05:36:32 pm
What the heck?

I'm on itélé for French elections and their journalists (not the one I mentioned earlier), just said Golden Dawn would be part of the new govt.

Nah, it's just that this journalist might be very tired or something...(isn't it??)

Oh, but wouldn't it make a lot of sense to go into coalition with the Nazis?  I'm sure you could buy them off by just giving them the Interior Ministry.

:P


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on June 17, 2012, 05:50:01 pm
AND, well, they proved themselves worthy by throwing water at Syriza's face, and punching KKE in the face so... That would be quite the reward to invite them.

Pasok make me puke. The sole fact that this "So" in their name stands for "socialist" makes me want to throw on each and every one of them.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: True Federalist on June 17, 2012, 06:49:47 pm
What the heck?

I'm on itélé for French elections and their journalists (not the one I mentioned earlier), just said Golden Dawn would be part of the new govt.

Nah, it's just that this journalist might be very tired or something...(isn't it??)

Oh, but wouldn't it make a lot of sense to go into coalition with the Nazis?  I'm sure you could buy them off by just giving them the Interior Ministry.

:P

Not only that, but turning over policing functions to XA volunteers would save the government money.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on June 17, 2012, 07:11:00 pm
Where's the CNBC special report? I must have gotten the time wrong.

The Greek people have once again put in a heroic effort. The ball is now in Germany's court.

This government has six months to achieve internal devaluation, fix the current account, balance the primary deficit, and generally meet the targets of the IMF/Troika agreement. F__king around isn't going to do it any more. The success depends on things like opening up the professions (for real, not just passing a law that says 'we'll open the professions' but when you actually see more taxis on the streets), massively slashing government payrolls and government salaries, and the like, instead of enacting new taxes. Cost cuts should be focused on operations, while infrastructure and other projects to boost growth should not be cut.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on June 17, 2012, 07:14:13 pm
Good results, happy for Greece.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 17, 2012, 07:24:01 pm
We had a near death experience. Let's hope that Merkel and Co. now will act or else she might become the person that resurrects from their graves both fascism and communism.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay on June 17, 2012, 07:27:16 pm
The ball is now in Germany's court.

Yeah, and Schaüble immediately warmly welcomed them:

'Greeks have accepted to lead deep reforms tonight'

What about, after Merkel telling Greece to do 'the right choice' a few days ago, Germany to begin to consider that the concept of Freedom and of Democracy can also belong to Greeks, or more simply put, what about a bit of respect? Might eventually help things to improve...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on June 17, 2012, 07:27:58 pm
Since it appears that many civil servants have already seen their salaries cut by 3, how will you "slash government payrolls and salaries" ?

This is an example of the contrary of democracy : when you tell people 24h/24 that something is the only way, they end up chosing it. And even if they do not, you make them vote again, and again, and again, until they vote what you demanded they should vote. Worked in Denmark, worked in Ireland, worked in France (referendum of 2005, congressional vote of 2007), apparently works in Greece...

Depresses me...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay on June 17, 2012, 07:31:25 pm
worked in France (referendum of 2005, congressional vote of 2007)

Hmm, just, the congressional vote and the referendum one aren't really the same kind, to say the least, and that's precisely something that remains a big enough issue, people like MLP can enjoy surfing on that democratic rigging...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Beet on June 17, 2012, 07:38:52 pm
Since it appears that many civil servants have already seen their salaries cut by 3, how will you "slash government payrolls and salaries" ?

What are Greece's current unit labor costs? What is the month-over-month and year-over-year rate of CPI compared to Germany? What is the current account balance? What is the non-interest expenditure and its change over the past year, two years, three years?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Ljube on June 17, 2012, 07:42:45 pm
Where's the CNBC special report? I must have gotten the time wrong.

The Greek people have once again put in a heroic effort. The ball is now in Germany's court.

This government has six months to achieve internal devaluation, fix the current account, balance the primary deficit, and generally meet the targets of the IMF/Troika agreement. F__king around isn't going to do it any more. The success depends on things like opening up the professions (for real, not just passing a law that says 'we'll open the professions' but when you actually see more taxis on the streets), massively slashing government payrolls and government salaries, and the like, instead of enacting new taxes. Cost cuts should be focused on operations, while infrastructure and other projects to boost growth should not be cut.

If you want to see any growth in the future, you’ll have to drop out of EURO and print Drachma again. Then you’ll be able to devalue. It’ll be hard in the beginning, but you’ll return to the path of growth in no more than 2 years.

If you keep EURO you will forever be dependant on future help from Germany and others. You might also recover with EURO, but the recovery will take much longer.
 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 17, 2012, 07:43:16 pm
Schaüble...

I eagerly wait the day where some politician of another country says him than he is Germany's Finance minister and to stop putting his nose in other countries.

I'm not sure he would like if all foreign finance ministers said him what do to.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay on June 17, 2012, 07:51:42 pm
Schaüble...

I eagerly wait the day where some politician of another country says him than he is Germany's Finance minister

Ah, no, he is more than that, he is the latest Charlemagne...

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BOHX-ce0PS4/T7Vcy_zADqI/AAAAAAAAPMc/RHYEan9UwOE/s1600/Grand%2BKeiser.jpg)

...then I guess it makes him feel fully legitimate to tell other people what they have to do anywhere in his empire...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 17, 2012, 08:04:03 pm
God, I hope that Hollande manages to mitigate the German austerity.  That is, if he even cares.  Which I'm now getting the sense that he doesn't. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay on June 17, 2012, 08:07:44 pm
God, I hope that Hollande manages to mitigate the German austerity.  That is, if he even cares.  Which I'm now getting the sense that he doesn't. 

Actually I've been kinda surprised of the rather firm tone that Hollande/Ayrault/Moscovici have taken with Germany, became suddenly kinda, tensed.

That being said, a tone is a tone and some words are some words, Sarkozy had used us with so much impressive big words, and...

True things will happen on the end of June, 28th iirc...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 17, 2012, 08:20:50 pm
God, I hope that Hollande manages to mitigate the German austerity.  That is, if he even cares.  Which I'm now getting the sense that he doesn't. 

Actually I've been kinda surprised of the rather firm tone that Hollande/Ayrault/Moscovici have taken with Germany, became suddenly kinda, tensed.

That being said, a tone is a tone and some words are some words, Sarkozy had used us with so much impressive big words, and...

True things will happen on the end of June, 28th iirc...
Well, he keeps telling Greece that it has to stick to its previous commitments or be kicked out of the eurozone.  Seems like he's sold out to me.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay on June 17, 2012, 08:26:25 pm
God, I hope that Hollande manages to mitigate the German austerity.  That is, if he even cares.  Which I'm now getting the sense that he doesn't. 

Actually I've been kinda surprised of the rather firm tone that Hollande/Ayrault/Moscovici have taken with Germany, became suddenly kinda, tensed.

That being said, a tone is a tone and some words are some words, Sarkozy had used us with so much impressive big words, and...

True things will happen on the end of June, 28th iirc...
Well, he keeps telling Greece that it has to stick to its previous commitments or be kicked out of the eurozone.  Seems like he's sold out to me.

Nah, there hasn't been something like that, it's not at all the Hollande/new govt style. The point is that Hollande focuses more on building new general rules for the Politico-Economic ruling of Euro Zone rather than on focusing on Greece particularly.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 17, 2012, 08:35:20 pm

Nah, there hasn't been something like that, it's not at all the Hollande/new govt style. The point is that Hollande focuses more on building new general rules for the Politico-Economic ruling of Euro Zone rather than on focusing on Greece particularly.
The point is that he supports the austerity measures that've already been imposed.  So, he's part of the pro-austerity circles, even if he's more pro-growth than the rest. 


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay on June 17, 2012, 08:46:24 pm

Nah, there hasn't been something like that, it's not at all the Hollande/new govt style. The point is that Hollande focuses more on building new general rules for the Politico-Economic ruling of Euro Zone rather than on focusing on Greece particularly.
The point is that he supports the austerity measures that've already been imposed.  So, he's part of the pro-austerity circles, even if he's more pro-growth than the rest. 

That's Hollande, not Mélenchon.

He knows he has to manage Germany well if he wants to obtain something in counterpart, France military became far bigger than German one, but the time where we could think we could rule it by an invasion seems to be kinda over, so, seems we are condemn to, either wait a divine revelation from Germany, or to you know...negotiate...the most smartly possible, which isn't easy when you don't have the dominating position, but if countries like France, Italy, Spain and maybe soon Netherlands decide to unite for new solutions than German diktats, then the outnumbering might make change the things (especially since Euro Zone is the 1st market of Germany).

Hollande and Monti made a summit in this sense a few days ago, to prepare the European one.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Dereich on June 17, 2012, 09:40:24 pm
Ok has something new changed with the whole PASOK situation? Last I heard they were totally unwilling to enter a coalition without SYRIZA, but all the news channels and the financial markets act like its a done deal.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: RodPresident on June 17, 2012, 10:19:00 pm
Ok has something new changed with the whole PASOK situation? Last I heard they were totally unwilling to enter a coalition without SYRIZA, but all the news channels and the financial markets act like its a done deal.
Venizelos and Samaras need to keep drama going to get better conditions from Troika and to show that Syriza is unwilling to join government.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on June 18, 2012, 03:44:29 am
Schaüble...

I eagerly wait the day where some politician of another country says him than he is Germany's Finance minister and to stop putting his nose in other countries.

I'm not sure he would like if all foreign finance ministers said him what do to.

Well it's his business, considering lots of German money is at stake here. Don't like it? That's a problem caused by the EU. It's not as if Schäuble chose Greece to go bankrupt.

Schäuble is certainly one of the more competent people in charge now.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ZuWo on June 18, 2012, 04:04:43 am
I am somewhat relieved about this result from a Swiss point of view. A SYRIZA victory and its dire consequences could have caused an even worse recession in Greece and Europe, which would also have affected my own country (a further deterioration of the European economy = big problems for the Swiss exporting industry = a recession in Switzerland). Now a ND victory and the possible formation of a pro-Euro coalition still don't guarantee an improvement of the current Greek situation, but it's definitely a step in the right direction.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Mr. Morden on June 18, 2012, 04:52:16 am
From Intrade:

Any current Eurozone member to drop out of the Euro by end of 2012: 30.2
by the end of 2013: 50.0
by the end of 2014: 59.1

All three numbers are down from a week ago, but still up quite a bit from a year ago.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Gustaf on June 18, 2012, 05:29:01 am
Those of you who think German tax payers should pay for the rest of Europe without complaining or demanding anything in return...what principle is that based on?

If you've wasted all your money you can't really expect to get more with no questions asked.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Franzl on June 18, 2012, 05:46:01 am
Those of you who think German tax payers should pay for the rest of Europe without complaining or demanding anything in return...what principle is that based on?

If you've wasted all your money you can't really expect to get more with no questions asked.

European unity! And a good portion of jealousy.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ZuWo on June 18, 2012, 06:38:53 am
Those of you who think German tax payers should pay for the rest of Europe without complaining or demanding anything in return...what principle is that based on?

If you've wasted all your money you can't really expect to get more with no questions asked.

European unity! And a good portion of jealousy.

If that's what "European unity" and "economic integration" is supposed to mean (i.e. some countries work hard to develop and maintain prosperous economies while other countries just waste their money and demand to be supported by the more prosperous members of the European Union) this is a scary.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on June 18, 2012, 06:43:42 am
Stupidity...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ZuWo on June 18, 2012, 06:49:23 am
Those of you who think German tax payers should pay for the rest of Europe without complaining or demanding anything in return...what principle is that based on?

Stupidity...

Thanks for answering Gustaf's question. ;)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on June 18, 2012, 06:51:27 am
Those of you who think German tax payers should pay for the rest of Europe without complaining or demanding anything in return...what principle is that based on?

If you've wasted all your money you can't really expect to get more with no questions asked.

European unity! And a good portion of jealousy.

If that's what "European unity" and "economic integration" is supposed to mean (i.e. some countries work hard to develop and maintain prosperous economies while other countries just waste their money and demand to be supported by the more prosperous members of the European Union) this is a scary.

The problem is that that is already what has happened without anyone really realizing it or intending it to be the case.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on June 18, 2012, 06:53:37 am
Sorry, that's the only thing that came to my mind after reading your posts. There's no way to argue with such mind-numbed talking points. It's like arguing with AmericanNation or CaDan.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 18, 2012, 06:54:46 am
     June 18 (Bloomberg) -- New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras
will meet Pasok head Evangelos Venizelos at 6 p.m.
in Athens today, New Democracy spokesman Chrisostomos Bikatzik
said in a telephone interview today.
     Samaras received a mandate to form a government
from President Karolos Papoulias earlier today after New
Democracy won elections yesterday. Pasok came third in the June
17 poll.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: ZuWo on June 18, 2012, 07:04:42 am
Sorry, that's the only thing that came to my mind after reading your posts. There's no way to argue with such mind-numbed talking points. It's like arguing with AmericanNation or CaDan.

A friendly advice - do not display such an elitist and self-righteous attitude towards people who have a different point of view. It's neither helpful on a forum nor in real life.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on June 18, 2012, 07:41:37 am
Believe me, I don't like to. But I felt the need to express my feelings, because my despair reaches new heights every time I realize how widespread your "views" are.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 18, 2012, 07:52:20 am
Those of you who think German tax payers should pay for the rest of Europe without complaining or demanding anything in return...what principle is that based on?

If you've wasted all your money you can't really expect to get more with no questions asked.

I, for one, will not make sure an argument.  But such an argument can be made.  It is mostly based on the fact that lots of the Greek and Spanish troubles has its roots in German banks lending to their counterparts in Greece and Spain.  These loans, it turns out, were unsustainable.  While the Greeks and Spanish should take responsbility for this, it takes two sides for a loan to take place.  Where were the due dilgence of German banks?  Like I said, I do not posit this argument but I do feel one can make a case for this point of view.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Velasco on June 18, 2012, 11:05:36 am
Media coverage sucks. I'll extract one paragraph from NYT.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/18/world/europe/greek-elections.html?ref=world

Quote
Even the most pro-Europe of Greece’s political parties, the conservative New Democracy, which came in first, has said a less austere agreement is crucial to a country with a 22 percent unemployment rate and the rising prospect of social unrest.

False statement: ND is not the most pro-Europe party in Greece; just remember that Samaras rejected the bailout when he was in the opposition. As all the Greek right-wing ND is staunchly nationalist. It's important to remark what I put in bold letters.

The Guardian another progressive-liberal media usually depicts Syriza as "far-left" and "anti-bailout" which is not correct. It´s more accurate if you say "anti-memorandum", i.e., opposed to the harsh austerity measures attached to the bailout.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/18/greek-election-coalition-government

Quote
Evangelos Venizelos, the former finance minister who oversaw the negotiations that secured Greece's second EU-IMF sponsored bailout package, has openly backed the need for reform even if, like Samaras, he also believes the loan agreement should be renegotiated to take some of the heat out of a society that has reached breaking point because of cutbacks. Combined, New Democracy and Pasok would control 162 seats.

If we identify Pro-Europe with Pro-Bailout, surely Evangelos Venizelos is the most europeist leader in Greece. Anyways Venizelos also believes that a renegotation is indispensable.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 18, 2012, 01:38:04 pm
Sorry, that's the only thing that came to my mind after reading your posts. There's no way to argue with such mind-numbed talking points. It's like arguing with AmericanNation or CaDan.

A friendly advice - do not display such an elitist and self-righteous attitude towards people who have a different point of view. It's neither helpful on a forum nor in real life.
Well what can you do when faced with stuff like this
Schaüble...

I eagerly wait the day where some politician of another country says him than he is Germany's Finance minister and to stop putting his nose in other countries.

I'm not sure he would like if all foreign finance ministers said him what do to.

Well it's his business, considering lots of German money is at stake here. Don't like it? That's a problem caused by the EU. It's not as if Schäuble chose Greece to go bankrupt.

from somebody who didn't spend the summer of 2010 in a koma?


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: TheParliamentarian on June 18, 2012, 03:53:51 pm
Samaras received a mandate from the president to form a coalition, and a New Democracy source said the party expected to clinch a deal on Tuesday after Samaras met the third-placed PASOK Socialists and the small Democratic Left group.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on June 18, 2012, 04:27:57 pm
Those of you who think German tax payers should pay for the rest of Europe without complaining or demanding anything in return...what principle is that based on?

If you've wasted all your money you can't really expect to get more with no questions asked.

Three men are in a boat. One man falls asleep one night and the boat hits a rock. The boat now has a hole in it. One of the other men has a bucket. He asks the third man: 'Say, why do you want me to empty the boat? This is not my fault, and besides I once hurt my back rather badly while working and ever since I've had an irrational fear of physical exercise. I don't want us emptying the boat together eithe, since I don't belief in groups. Rather I feel we should make our friend drink all this water. He broke the boat; it's only right he should suffer.'

One day later the first man dies an agonizing death due to all the salty water he was made to drink. The very next day both other men drown.

Not very inspired as an analogy, I know.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: PR on June 18, 2012, 04:51:43 pm
President Obama has praised the results in Greece:



Quote
Barack Obama hailed the Greek election results as offering a glimmer of hope in a eurozone crisis that is threatening to undermine the US recovery and the president's chances of re-election.

In his first comment on Sunday's election, Obama told reporters at the G20 summit in Mexico on Monday that the Greek election offered a "positive prospect".

That endorsement went much further than most other world leaders, particularly European ones, who have been much more circumspect in their reaction.

The White House has been watching in desperation at European leaders have bounced from summit to summit, leaving the crisis unresolved.

Although Obama needs a quick fix to the eurozone crisis, European leaders cautioned against expecting any solutions to emerge from the G20 summit, the gathering of the most advanced economies.

The euro crisis is acting a drag on business and consumer confidence in the US but the Obama administration has opted against injecting into Europe the billions of dollars that might help stabilise it, partly because it would be near impossible to get such a package through Congress.

Obama, at a meeting with Mexican president Felipe Calderon, who is hosting the summit, told reporters it was going to be a busy day and a half: "The world is very concerned about the slowing of growth that has taken place."

He added: "Now is a time as we've discussed to make sure that all of us do what's necessary to stabilise the world financial system, to avoid protectionism."

The White House issued a bland statement on Sunday welcoming the Greek vote and hoping its government would make "timely progress" on the economic challenges it faces. European leaders want Greece to make deep spending cuts in return for a rescue package.

Obama, who had spent the weekend having a break in Chicago, adopted a more positive tone on Monday than the White House statement from Sunday. "I think the election in Greece yesterday indicates a positive prospect for not only them forming a government, but also them working constructively with their international partners in order that they can continue on the path of reform and do so in a way that also offers the prospects for the Greek people to succeed and prosper," Obama said.

"And we are going to be working under your leadership and with our European partners, and with all countries, to make sure that we're contributing so that the economy grows, the situation stabilises, confidence returns to the markets and, most importantly we're giving our people the chance if they work hard to succeed and do well."

The summit will allow the Europeans to take "one important step in a series of steps that are going to be required to continue to improve global economic prospects," he said.

In spite of Obama's words, the main decisions are unlikely to be made at the summit but at meetings later in Europe, where there is remaining scepticism about whether Greece might yet have to leave the eurozone and also about the future of other members, such as Spain.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/18/barack-obama-greek-elections-positive?newsfeed=true (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/18/barack-obama-greek-elections-positive?newsfeed=true)


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 18, 2012, 04:58:16 pm
Samaras received a mandate from the president to form a coalition, and a New Democracy source said the party expected to clinch a deal on Tuesday after Samaras met the third-placed PASOK Socialists and the small Democratic Left group.


Interesting that DIMAR's even considering it...


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on June 18, 2012, 07:46:50 pm
Not very inspired as an analogy, I know.

... really you couldn't think of a better analogy? Really, nothing at all?

Firstly it's not like Germany hasn't already spent billions of euros trying to save failing European economies, thereby in difference to your analogy definatley using its bucket. But emptying the boat is rather pointless if there is still a bloody HOLE in it. It's quite reasonable to demand the guy responsible for the accident to try to fix it.

I'm guessing the stupidity of sailing in the middle of dark night is representing the stupidity of the idea of the Euro.     


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Iannis on June 19, 2012, 05:02:13 am
Believe me, I don't like to. But I felt the need to express my feelings, because my despair reaches new heights every time I realize how widespread your "views" are.

The hard reality for your kind of answering usually is the lack of good arguments and the lack of competence on the issues treated


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on June 19, 2012, 05:08:36 am
Anybody who has taken time to actually argue on this issue knows that I do have arguments. Whether they are good or not is left to your judgement.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on June 19, 2012, 06:01:07 am
Election result:
 
ND 129
 
Syriza 71
 
Pasok 33
 
ANEL 20
 
XA 18
 
DIMAR 17
 
KKE 12
 

ND + Pasok = 162

Anti-austerity: 138

How long would an ND/Pasok coalition last with such a relatively narrow majority? Anyone wants to bet 10.000 Euros there is going to be a new election within 6 months?

Why is Pasok even interested in taking part in such a government
 





Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: A Strange Reflection on June 19, 2012, 06:11:15 am
Why is Pasok even interested in taking part in such a government

They have to. I might have supported Syriza, but ND has won fair and square and Greece's interest is to have a stable government. If Dimar could be brought into it (I'm sure they don't want to, but still) it would be even better.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: politicus on June 19, 2012, 06:15:00 am
Why is Pasok even interested in taking part in such a government

They have to. I might have supported Syriza, but ND has won fair and square and Greece's interest is to have a stable government. If Dimar could be brought into it (I'm sure they don't want to, but still) it would be even better.
You a being a bit too deterministic. A party never has to take part in a government, they can choose not to for a number of reasons - including self interest.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: jaichind on June 19, 2012, 06:57:45 am
Looks like it will be ND-PASOK-DIMAR.  DIMAR was always on the fence on the Memorandum.  Of course after the last election ND-PASOK-DIMAR was the only viable coalition but PASOK and DIMAR said no.  Now after market chaos and Greece getting close to the brink, they finally has come to their senses.  That is the way things ought to be, when you do something stupid, the market will punish you and then you better be with the picture. 



     June 19 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic Left leader Fotis
Kouvelis said it was possible that an agreement on a Greek
coalition government could be reached in the next few hours.
     “Agreement on a policy roadmap is the definitive point to
form a government,” Kouvelis said after meeting with Pasok
leader Evangelos Venizelos in Athens today. “The process is
speeding up. It is possible that in the next few hours, or
within the day, a government can be decided.”
     He spoke in Athens in comments carried live on state-run
NET TV.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass! on June 19, 2012, 07:48:20 am
My bet is that, while PASOK will work their damned hardest to look like they're trying, they'll sabotage the negotiations subtly(or not so subtly through insistence that SYRIZA participate). The reason being that if ND fails to form a government in three days SYRIZA gets the opportunity(they'll fail), and then PASOK gets their shot.

Then theirs DIMAR. They may want a coalition government for fear of their vote share falling if a third election is held... but they'd probably prefer that PASOK rather then ND head that government since PASOK is closer to DIMAR's platform(indeed many DIMAR members are former members of PASOK), and a PASOK led government would outrage their voters more then an ND one would.

Then it comes down to ND's decision: would they rather accept PASOK formed coalition to avoid the specter of a third election that SYRIZA might win?... or do they risk another role of the dice instead.


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on June 19, 2012, 08:09:06 am
I agree with Antonio. I supported SIRYZA, but after the election, I think the best for Greece, Europe, and Spain, is a stable government led by the winner (Samaras) but supported by the centre-left. A third election would be a disaster.. And Greeks have already said for the second time in 2 months that they want ND to be the biggest party, and they've given ND-PASOK-DIMAR a majority in the Parliament twice... So, let's give an opportunity to Samaras, I won't start complaining until September :p


Title: Re: Greece 2012
Post by: LastVoter on June 19, 2012, 08:51:28 am
Looks like it will be ND-PASOK-DIMAR.  DIMAR was always on the fence on the Memorandum.  Of course after the last election ND-PASOK-DIMAR was the only viable coalition but PASOK and DIMAR said no.  Now after market chaos and Greece getting close to the brink, they finally has come to their senses.  That is the way things ought to be, when you do something stupid, the market will punish you and then you better be with the picture. 



     June 19 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic Left leader Fotis
Kouvelis said it was possible that an agreement on a Greek
coalition government could be reached in the next few hours.
     “Agreement on a policy roadmap is the definitive point to
fo