Talk Elections

New Poll: Iowa President by Public Policy Polling on 2011-12-18 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920111218108)

Summary:

Paul:	23%
Romney:	20%
Gingrich:	14%
Bachmann:	10%
Perry:	10%
Santorum:	10%
Other:	6%
Undecided:	7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_1218925.pdf)

It has actually happened. Gingrich is in free fall, and Santorum is on the way up too.

So is Paul going to be the new flavor? That would definitely be a WTF.

The Paul people are going to be unbearable this week.

Don't worry guys, the Gingrich-Bachmann-Perry-Santorum vote is going to coalesce around one candidate before the caucus.

I can't remember a poll where SIX candidates were in double digits.

So you expect the anti-Romney/Paul candidate to defeat Romney and Paul?

Phil must be happy Santorum is now in double digits. LOL at Gingrich's FAIL of FOTM status.

A Paul and Romney top 2 will virtually guarentee a Romney victory in this primary. Gingrich...the Giuliani of 2008. His national lead just started a few months later.

I'm calling it now: a Santorum surge. He's been barnstorming the state, has a great ground game and has been winning the endorsements of prominent evangelical leaders. I'd assert that his numbers are underestimated in the polls.

Paul is only up 2 from last week, and Santorum's gain isn't that big either actually (he was at 8% last week in PPP's poll apparently).  Romney's the most improved, from 16% to 20%.

Newt seems to be on his way to 6th.

The big, big question here is what the conservatives do.  Someone has to make a last stand in SC.

I think that's about their only option left. I can't believe that the evangelicals would just roll over for Romney or Paul.

Before this thread is submerged in a deluge of gleeful Paulites, it should be noted that he only gained a mere two points.

The real story is obviously the Gingrich collapse. Haha, Newt Gingrich.

Second choice of Newt's supporters is 30% Romney, 22% Perry, 14% Santorum, 13% Bachmann, 11% Paul. So a further erosion of Newt is only going to help Romney more.

Yeah, going off of PPP's crosstabs, Paul doesn't have much room for growth. His hard ceiling in Iowa appears to be somewhere between 25%-30%. He just isn't that popular among Gingrich supporters to get much of a bounce.

At this point, Gingrich isn't going to win Iowa. Its down to the ground game now, and he is far behind the others. This is a win-win for Romney - he wins Iowa, he has the nomination. If he loses to another, that candidate and Gingrich will likely split up the vote in SC. Unless there is a shakeup soon, i dont see a good path for a Gingrich victory without Iowa, and who exactly would be left to try and challenge Mitt??

This will be interesting.

Looks like Paul fans will have reason to flood YouTube video comment boards for weeks to come.  That last debate must have really changed things.

However, 10% isn't enough for Santorum to be considered 'flavor of the month' (okay, I just threw up a little typing that).

Both Perry and Gingrich's people like Mitt more than Santorum according to the poll (only Bachmann's people really like Santorum as a back-up). I don't see his surge really happening.

Paul is also beating him amongst people who have seen a candidate in person, so I'm not sure his live-in-Iowa strategy is really panning out.

Great news for Santorum.


Oh, they're bearable any other time?

Santorum's +20 on favorability, 52% favorable and 32% unfavorable, which is a better margin than any other candidate, though Bachmann is close behind at +18.

So Santorum might have some potential for further gains.

I hope so

The Douchebaggers™  are going to be unbearable this week.

I have noticed every time there is something like this in the news the is a wave of posts like this:


I see all these posts about how we will be jizzing our collective pants and will be unbearable yet every time I see more posts about that then there are from actual Paulites. I am convinced that the haters are more obsessed with him than his actual following given how much more you talk about him.

A similar thing happened in the months following Scott Brown's win. I would see a ton of preemptive posts about how GOPers would be crying SCOTT BROWN when when claiming the GOP might win a seat, yet they (who shall henceforth be referred to as Douchebaggers) were the only people that brought him up.

*after I typed this I went back to do this little count*
Posts about the Paultards: 5
Posts  by actual Paulites: 0

Among people who claim to have supported McCain in the 2008 caucus:

Paul 24%
Gingrich 22%
Bachmann 15%
Romney 14%
Perry 8%
Huntsman 6%
Santorum 1%

Amusing, given the vast differences between McCain and Paul on foreign policy.  But then, McCain actually did well in the 2008 primaries (at least compared to Huck and Romney) among GOP voters who opposed the Iraq War.  He was strong among voters whose party identification with the GOP was weak, just like Paul.

Most important issue:

jobs / economy:

Romney 25%
Paul 24%
Gingrich 13%

govt. spending / debt:

Paul 21%
Romney 21%
Gingrich 18%

taxes:

Perry 29%
Paul 28%
Gingrich 19%

social issues:

Santorum 29%
Paul 17%
Bachmann 15%

illegal immigration:

Gingrich 28%
Paul 21%
Santorum 15%

foreign policy / national security:

Paul 33%
Romney 13%
Perry 11%
Santorum 11%

So Newt is actually fizzling out far quicker than Herman Cain did. Fascinating.

Basically, this.  Huntsman will start to show up in NH, very interested to see PPP's results there.  Wouldn't be surprised by Romney/Paul/Huntsman/Gingrich.  The real question is whether Paul can make his case to the religious right.  I think he has an argument but he needs to make it more forcefully and in terms they can relate to.

One counterpoint to the ceiling discussion - if Paul can break the electability meme, he could take off.  A lot of his ceiling seems to be based around the idea that he can't win, and Republicans REALLY want to beat Obama.

Paul really isn't going anywhere guys. Look at those numbers. He only gets a >25% plurality in Iowa which I doubt is going to be repeated in other states.

The real fight will be Romney v. the candidate that Bachmann/Santorum/Perry/Gingrich's followers get behind (which isn't going to be Paul or Huntsman).

It will be pathetic if the not-Romney vote can't even get behind one candidate and Romney squeaks by with a plurality.

But yeah the real story here looks like the Newt train going off track

This primary is hilarious

ROFL, I can't believe this. ;D So Paul is set to be the january's fad ?

This primary is such a trainwreck...

One of the fastest collapses I can recall...

Some of the spin in this thread is actually more hillarious than the poll itself.

Not really surprising to see this in Iowa, since this is typically the most volatile time of the campaign and voters there are much more conscious of what's going.

I do wonder whether other polls will reflect this decline for Gingrich. Both Paul and Romney have scored support in the low double-digits in at least one recent poll. That said, if Gingrich is declining, it might be a bad thing for Paul. It's probably just early enough that either Santorum, Bachmann, or Perry will be able to consolidate the loose support.

(Also, has anything else happened to Santorum? Hard to believe that his trading price on Intrade tripled on news of this poll alone.)

I absolutely called this last night.



Again, Paul has been shown to be less like a house and more like an elevator; he can cleave off more support over time. Anyway, going by the crosstabs about a month ago, it would have been impossible for Paul to get to where he is.

Paul's ceiling goes up as more and more liberals cross over to support him...making this thread ironic.

Damn.... c'mon Santorum!!!

Santorum has really always been the most tolerable of the potential FOTMs.

It looks like the upcoming NH poll from PPP will look a lot like the ARG one ...

Paul has the lead in the newly-released Insider Advantage poll, too (which, incidentally, has Santorum at an unbelievably low 3%, and Perry just behind Romney in 3rd). RCP average for Iowa is now 22% Paul, 20% Romney, 16% Gingrich, 12% Perry.

()

Someone update the map for this poll!

He did, Tender has a stickied thread now.