Title: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on December 19, 2011, 02:08:51 AM
I've decided to sticky it here.
Updated Obama vs. Romney map:
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)
Note: Lighter shades indicate a state that was not polled so far, but that will most likely be won by these parties.
Nevada & North Carolina are pure tossups in the last poll, Indiana is grey because it is unpolled and not leaning in any direction.
Obama: 297 EV
Romney: 209 EV
Tossup: 21 EV
Unpolled & no lean: 11 EV
...
Updated Obama vs. Gingrich map:
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Note: Lighter shades indicate a state that was not polled so far, but that will most likely be won by these parties.
Arizona is a pure tossup in the last poll, Indiana is grey because it is unpolled and not leaning in any direction.
Obama: 401 EV
Gingrich: 115 EV
Tossup: 11 EV
Unpolled & no lean: 11 EV
Updated Obama vs. Romney map:
(
Note: Lighter shades indicate a state that was not polled so far, but that will most likely be won by these parties.
Nevada & North Carolina are pure tossups in the last poll, Indiana is grey because it is unpolled and not leaning in any direction.
Obama: 297 EV
Romney: 209 EV
Tossup: 21 EV
Unpolled & no lean: 11 EV
...
Updated Obama vs. Gingrich map:
(
Note: Lighter shades indicate a state that was not polled so far, but that will most likely be won by these parties.
Arizona is a pure tossup in the last poll, Indiana is grey because it is unpolled and not leaning in any direction.
Obama: 401 EV
Gingrich: 115 EV
Tossup: 11 EV
Unpolled & no lean: 11 EV
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Ben Romney on December 19, 2011, 03:07:17 PM
sorry but these map are strange if Mitt Romney will win MI there is no way he will lose FL or NC
and to think The Grinch could lose TX but win OH is crazy too
IMO
and to think The Grinch could lose TX but win OH is crazy too
IMO
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Ben Romney on December 19, 2011, 04:29:32 PM
http://www.facebook.com/groups/185054414852195/
there you can find my maps based on the polls
there you can find my maps based on the polls
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Oakvale on December 19, 2011, 04:41:30 PM
Knowing that Hillary2012 is actually a real person who runs a Facebook group and not some kind of spambot that quotes lines from HillaryIs44 is a little unnerving.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on December 20, 2011, 04:07:53 AM
Here is Obama vs. Paul:
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A lot of unpolled states (in lighter shades), while MO and IN are also unpolled and not leaning in any direction. IA is a tossup.
Obama: 355 EV
Paul: 156 EV
...
@ Hillary:
I'm not a member of the Facebook sect, could you please post your maps here ? Thx.
(
A lot of unpolled states (in lighter shades), while MO and IN are also unpolled and not leaning in any direction. IA is a tossup.
Obama: 355 EV
Paul: 156 EV
...
@ Hillary:
I'm not a member of the Facebook sect, could you please post your maps here ? Thx.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Ben Romney on December 20, 2011, 05:37:13 AM
how can I post a map here??
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on December 20, 2011, 07:18:17 AM
how can I post a map here??
Go here:
https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php
and fill out every state like you want it.
Then you click at "show map link" at the bottom of the page.
You copy this link and then you post this link here.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: pbrower2a on December 20, 2011, 08:33:58 AM
sorry but these map are strange if Mitt Romney will win MI there is no way he will lose FL or NC
and to think The Grinch could lose TX but win OH is crazy too
IMO
and to think The Grinch could lose TX but win OH is crazy too
IMO
The other way of putting it is that
(1) Michigan (and Pennsylvania) always look tempting to Republicans as a likely zone of political pick-offs, but in practice the labor unions prove the foot-soldiers for Democratic campaigns, and they are almost always (2010 excepted) extremely effective. You can't see now what goes on in the late summer and early autumn... the Religious Right tends to counter that to some extent, but without the numbers they lose. President Obama will get credit for saving the auto industry which will ensure him the huge margins in anything from Lansing to the south and east that will solidify Michigan.
(2) Ohio is a legitimate swing state to the extent that it has gone with the Presidential winner in every Presidential year since 1960. Ohio is slightly more R/less D than Michigan in most years, but this time most indicators favor Democrats. Its Democratic Senator is unlikely to lose, the Republican Governor is immensely unpopular, and in the last generic ballot the Democrats had the lead on Congress. As in Michigan, the unions are the real work behind Democratic campaigns, and this time the President will get credit for saving the industries that depend upon the auto industry.
(3) Gingrich has been shown as the most unforgivable phony to conservatives -- not so much for his sleazy marital life, but for first being a political insider and then posing as a political outsider while being a money-grubbing lobbyist. He may become irrelevant very fast. Newt Gingrich bled Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae for filthy lucre.
(4) Florida is beginning to look like a disaster for the GOP. The Governor is so unpopular that if he were the President of an independent Republic he would have to watch his back out of fear of a coup by the Armed Forces. The Democratic Senator is doing fine. The generic ballot favors Democrats in the House. (On the generic ballot for Congress I have only five states available; the Republicans will likely hold their one at-large seat in Congress, but the Democrats have the advantage in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. All of them -- indicating that unless something goes right for the Republicans, the now-majority delegations from those states will be reversed in 2012, and that will be a huge chunk of what the Democrats need in 2012 to win the House "back" from the Republicans).
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Ben Romney on December 20, 2011, 04:10:42 PM
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Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on December 21, 2011, 01:18:13 AM
How exactly did you manage to use the wrong colours with the link I have provided to you ?
Besides, your map isn't based on polling numbers - but more on what you personally think.
Besides, your map isn't based on polling numbers - but more on what you personally think.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Ben Romney on December 21, 2011, 05:40:47 PM
no its based on the polls but I dont replace one poll result with another I take the middle
for example:
Today you have a poll for Michigan Obama leads Romney 46/44 and tomorrow another pollster show Romney leading Obama 45/42 then today you would give MI to Obama and the next day to Romney in my electoral map it would be Romney 44.5 and 44 for Obama= a tie
for example:
Today you have a poll for Michigan Obama leads Romney 46/44 and tomorrow another pollster show Romney leading Obama 45/42 then today you would give MI to Obama and the next day to Romney in my electoral map it would be Romney 44.5 and 44 for Obama= a tie
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: pbrower2a on January 10, 2012, 11:45:25 PM
Obama vs. Romney, PPP (NC to Obama, even if it is by a mere 1%):
(
Quinnippiac will have a huge poll on Florida released at 6:30 EST
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on January 12, 2012, 09:22:23 AM
Obama vs. Romney (FL to Romney, older NV poll has Obama ahead):
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(
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: morgieb on January 13, 2012, 07:37:56 PM
Pretty interesting, but I can't see Obama winning the Carolina's if he loses Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Michigan.
I think the Paul map also over-estimates his chances in certain states, but as polling is kinda thin on the ground I can sorta understand it.
I think the Paul map also over-estimates his chances in certain states, but as polling is kinda thin on the ground I can sorta understand it.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on January 18, 2012, 12:20:31 PM
Update
Obama vs. Romney (SC to Romney, OH to Obama):
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Obama vs. Romney (SC to Romney, OH to Obama):
(
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on February 05, 2012, 10:02:17 AM
NH and MI to Obama against Romney.
Also, someone reeeally needs to poll IN.
Also, someone reeeally needs to poll IN.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: pbrower2a on February 05, 2012, 12:24:31 PM
Update
Obama vs. Romney (MI, NH to Obama; FL, MO tie):
(
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on February 05, 2012, 01:26:49 PM
Update
Obama vs. Romney (MI, NH to Obama; FL, MO tie):
(map)
Thx for updating, but Obama "leads" in VA as well (by 1 point), per Mason-Dixon.
Obama also leads in the latest FL poll, but Romney leads in NC.
(
This map looks eerily familiar to a map we have already seen before ... :P
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: pbrower2a on February 05, 2012, 04:02:36 PM
Update
Obama vs. Romney (MI, NH to Obama; FL, MO tie):
(map)
Thx for updating, but Obama "leads" in VA as well (by 1 point), per Mason-Dixon.
Obama also leads in the latest FL poll, but Romney leads in NC.
(
This map looks eerily familiar to a map we have already seen before ... :P
The electorate now must look much like that of November 2008. Somehow I think that if President Obama has fulfilled most of his promises and the same people who didn't like those promises to begin with still don't like them even if they are achieved, then the electoral map of 2012 should look much like that of 2008. So it was in 1956 and 2004. Four states (KY, LA, MO, WV) shifted between 1952 and three (IA, NH, NM) shifted between 2000 and 2004.
There has been little Deep South or Plains-region polling in recent weeks.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on February 09, 2012, 03:59:16 PM
PA to Romney, NC to Obama.
How do I post a map? Do I click the prediction button or the EVC button?
How do I post a map? Do I click the prediction button or the EVC button?
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on February 09, 2012, 04:05:18 PM
PA to Romney, NC to Obama.
How do I post a map? Do I click the prediction button or the EVC button?
How do I post a map? Do I click the prediction button or the EVC button?
https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php
Have fun.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on February 09, 2012, 04:18:45 PM
Like this?
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I'm still not sure how to get that thing with the lighter shades and the pure white for MO, though. Do I do a lower percent thing?
(
I'm still not sure how to get that thing with the lighter shades and the pure white for MO, though. Do I do a lower percent thing?
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on February 09, 2012, 06:34:46 PM
I should point out that Susquehanna isn't exactly what we'd call a very reputable pollster.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: pbrower2a on February 09, 2012, 07:11:50 PM
Like this?
()
I'm still not sure how to get that thing with the lighter shades and the pure white for MO, though. Do I do a lower percent thing?
(
I'm still not sure how to get that thing with the lighter shades and the pure white for MO, though. Do I do a lower percent thing?
Use "4" for the color (it's really yellow) and "1" for the shade. The number shows up black for all shades of yellow but white for all shades of red, blue, or green. You can also use it for Indiana if Ohio gives President Obama a 4%-7% lead over the strongest Republican.
I should point out that Susquehanna isn't exactly what we'd call a very reputable pollster.
Yes, I would revert Pennsylvania. Susquehanna is practically an in-house pollster for the Pennsylvania Republican Party or Scaife. Think about it: would you take a poll taken by or for either the UAW or the NAACP seriously? I respect those organizations, but I wouldn't trust them to take an unbiased, scientific poll.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: pbrower2a on February 09, 2012, 08:11:38 PM
Here we go. Susquehanna poll discredited; Indiana considered a toss-up; President Obama goes ahead of everyone in North Carolina.
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(
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: SPQR on February 13, 2012, 06:51:00 AM
Shouldn't you consider Nebraska's 3 CD's as well?
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: pbrower2a on February 13, 2012, 01:06:39 PM
Shouldn't you consider Nebraska's 3 CD's as well?
I did; they just don't show.
Reapportionment has put both NE-01 and NE-02 in play, this time with NE-01 more likely to go for the President but still a likely R win. NE-03 (central and western Nebraska) is one of the most R-leaning districts in the US and would likely still go R in an Obama blowout reminiscent of Nixon 1972 or Reagan 1984.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on February 19, 2012, 12:02:35 PM
Are we going to give IN and IA to Romney?
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on February 23, 2012, 09:25:10 AM
Here's the latest Obama vs. Romney map:
()
MO is a complete tie and IN was still not polled
Lighter shades indicate states that have not been polled recently, but which are certain to go for either candidate.
()
MO is a complete tie and IN was still not polled
Lighter shades indicate states that have not been polled recently, but which are certain to go for either candidate.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 04, 2012, 09:25:25 AM
Why did you abandon the Atlas map ?
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2012, 09:30:35 AM
Why did you abandon the Atlas map ?
Just wanted to do something with the Paint ... ;)
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on March 27, 2012, 08:50:51 AM
Update:
()
()
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Ben Romney on March 27, 2012, 04:30:31 PM
Here`s my weekly electoral map:
GOP Primary: National: Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are the frontrunners now!
Romney:38.4% Santorum:27.2% Gingrich:13.2% Paul:12.0%
Romney :AK AZ CA CT FL HI ID IL MA MD ME MI NH NJ NV NY OH OR RI SD UT VA VT WA WY
Gingrich:GA KY MT NE NM SC WV
Santorum:AL CO IA IN LA MN MO MS NC ND OK PA TN TX WI
IA Caucus: Jan.3:
RS24.6% MR24.5% RP21.5% NG13.3% RP010.3% MB05.0% JH00.6% 25 Delegates
NH Primary: Jan.10:
MR39.3% RP22.9% JH16.9% NG09.4% RS09.4% RP00.7% 12 Delegates
SC Primary: Jan.21: NG40.4% MR27.9% RS17.0% RP13.0% 25 Delegates
FL Primary: Jan.31: MR46.4% NG31.9% RS13.3% RP07.0% 50 Delegates
NV Primary: Feb.04: MR50.0% NG21.1% RP18.7% RS09.9% 28 Delegates
ME Primary: Feb.04-11: MR:39.2% RP:35.7% RS17.7% NG:06.3% 24 Delegates
Co Caucus: Feb.07: RS40.2% MR:34.9% NG:12.8% RP:11.8% 36 Delegates
MN Primary: Feb.07: RS44.8% RP27.2% MR16.9% NG10.7% 40 Delegates
MO Primary: Feb.07: RS55.2% MR25.3% RP12.2% 00 Delegates
AZ Primary: Feb.28: MR47.3% RS26.6% NG16.2% RP08.5% 29 Delegates
MI Primary: Feb.28: MR41.1% RS37.9% RP11.6% NG06.5% 30 Delegates
WY Caucus: Feb.29: MR39.0% RS31.9% RP20.8% NG07.8% 29 Delegates
WA Caucus: Mar.3: MR37.6% RP24.8% RS23.8% NG10.3% 43Delegates
AK Caucus: Mar.6: MR32.6% RS29% RP24.0% NG14.2% 27 Delegates
GA Primary: Mar.6: NG47.2% MR25.9% RS19.6% RP:06.5% 76 Delegates
ID Caucus: Mar.6: MR63.2% RP17.4% RS17.1% NG02.2% 32 Delegates
MA Primary: Mar.6: MR:72.1% RP:12.1% RS09.6% NG:04.0% 41 Delegates
ND Caucus: Mar.6: RS39.7% RP28.1% MR23.7% NG08.5% 28 Delegates
OH Primary: Mar.6: MR38.4% RS37.4% NG14.8% RP09.4% 66 Delegates
OK Primary: Mar.6: RS33.8% MR28.0% NG27.5% RP09.6% 43 Delegates
TN Primary: Mar.6: RS37.2% MR28.0% NG24.0% RP09.1% 58 Delegates
VT Primary: Mar.6: MR40.3% RP25.1% RS23.4% NG08.3% 17 Delegates
VA Primary: Mar.6: MR59.5% RP40.5% 49 Delegates
KS Caucus: Mar.10: RS:51.2 MR:20.9% NG:14.4 RP:12.6% 40 Delegates
NMI: Mar.10: MR:87.3% RS:06.3% RP:03.3% NG:03.2% 09 Delegates
VI Caucus : Mar.10 : MR:34.4% RP:29.2% RS:06.0% NG:04.7% 09 Delegates
Guam Caucus : Mar. 10: MR:100% 09 Delegates
AL Primary: Mar. 13: RS:34.5% NG29.3% MR29.0% RP05.0% 50 Delegates
HI Caucus: Mar.13: MR45.4% RS25.3% RP:18.3% NG11.0% 20 Delegates
MS Primary: Mar.13: RS32.9% NG31.3% MR30.3% RP04.4% 40 Delegates
AS Caucus: Mar.13: MR:100% 09 Delegates
PR Primary: Mar.18:
MR:82.9% RS:08.0% BR:02.2% NG:02.0% FK:01.7% RP:01.2% 23 Delegates
IL Primary: Mar.20: MR:46.7% RS:35.0% RP:09.3% NG:07.9% 54Delegates
LA Primary: Mar.24: RS49.0% MR:26.7% NG:15.9% RP:06.2% 20 Delegates
MD Primary: Apr.03: no polls but Romney should win here 37 Delegates
DC Primary: Apr.03: no polls but Romney should win here 19 Delegates
Wi Primary: Apr.03: MR36.8% NG07.6% RP10.1% RS31.4% 42 Deelegates
Delegates:
Mitt Romney: 564 + 32 +2 = 598
Ron Paul: 068 + 01 = 069
RickSantorum: 288 + 02 = 290
Newt Gingrich: 140 + 03 = 143
If the presidential election would be held today a Generic GOP candidate could get 323EV! President Obama could get 205EV! 10EV from MN are a toss-up! A candidate needs 270EV to get elected!
Mitt Romney 53.2% 45.0% Barack Hussein Obama
Rick Santorum 51.4% 47.7% Barack Hussein Obama
Newt Gingrich 45.3% 51.5% Barack Hussein Obama
Ron Paul 47.6% 47.8% Barack Hussein Obama
If its Mitt Romney against Obama it would be:
290 EV 218 EV 030 EV toss-up
If its Newt Gingrich against Obama it would be:
149 EV 389 EV 000 EV toss-up
If its Ron Paul against Obama it would be:
215 EV 221 EV 102 EV toss-up
If its Rick Santorum against Obama it would be:
176 EV 216 EV 146 EV toss-up
Senate:
2010: GOP: 47 DEM: 51 IND: 02
2012: GOP: 52 DEM: 45 IND: 01 -1 Toss-up: 2
Takeover GOP: MO MT NE VA WI
DEM:
Toss-up: CT FL
Governor:
2010: GOP: 29 DEM: 20 IND: 01
2012: GOP: 33 DEM: 16 IND: 01 Toss-up: 1
Takeover GOP: MT NC WA WV
DEM:
Toss-up: IN
President: Approve/Disapprove
Strong approve Obama:
CA: (53.2/41.0)
DC (85.0/15.0)
DE:(56.6/43.5)
HI (59.2/36.7)
MA (56.0/38.2)
MD (54.4/41.6)
NY (65.1/29.3)
VT (54.3/37.3)
Lean approve Obama:
CT:(52.8/43.3)
IL: (51.9/42.2)
MI (50.5/43.4)
RI (51.4/41.5)
NJ: (50.6/43.0)
WA (50.2/44.9)
WI: (49.9/44.8)
Weak approve Obama:
Strong disapprove :
AL (59.9/39.0)
AK (59.8/38.8)
AZ (54.7/41.0)
AR (63.7/33.2)
ID (71.0/29.0)
IN (56.0/40.5)
KS (62.2/36.0)
KY (58.0/35.9)
LA (59.7/39.0)
MS (57.8/39.7)
MT (58.6/38.8)
NE (60.6/37.3)
ND (60.7/38.7)
OK (66.4/33.4)
SD (58.1/40.7)
TN (52.4/39.6)
TX (52.8/39.7)
UT (69.3/28.1)
WV (63.3/29.1)
WY (68.9/30.4)
Lean disapprove:
CO (50.0/43.8)
FL (50.6/46.0)
GA (49.6/42.8)
MO (52.1/42.8)
NH (50.0/43.2)
NM: (49.7/44.3)
NV (50.1/43.9)
OH (49.5/43.6)
OR:(52.7/44.6)
PA (49.6/45.2)
SC (49.1/43.6)
Weak disapprove :
IA: (47.7/45.7)
ME:(47.7/47.0)
NC (50.2/47.0)
VA: (47.0/48.3)
Toss-up:
MN:( 46.9/46.9)
GOP Primary: National: Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are the frontrunners now!
Romney:38.4% Santorum:27.2% Gingrich:13.2% Paul:12.0%
Romney :AK AZ CA CT FL HI ID IL MA MD ME MI NH NJ NV NY OH OR RI SD UT VA VT WA WY
Gingrich:GA KY MT NE NM SC WV
Santorum:AL CO IA IN LA MN MO MS NC ND OK PA TN TX WI
IA Caucus: Jan.3:
RS24.6% MR24.5% RP21.5% NG13.3% RP010.3% MB05.0% JH00.6% 25 Delegates
NH Primary: Jan.10:
MR39.3% RP22.9% JH16.9% NG09.4% RS09.4% RP00.7% 12 Delegates
SC Primary: Jan.21: NG40.4% MR27.9% RS17.0% RP13.0% 25 Delegates
FL Primary: Jan.31: MR46.4% NG31.9% RS13.3% RP07.0% 50 Delegates
NV Primary: Feb.04: MR50.0% NG21.1% RP18.7% RS09.9% 28 Delegates
ME Primary: Feb.04-11: MR:39.2% RP:35.7% RS17.7% NG:06.3% 24 Delegates
Co Caucus: Feb.07: RS40.2% MR:34.9% NG:12.8% RP:11.8% 36 Delegates
MN Primary: Feb.07: RS44.8% RP27.2% MR16.9% NG10.7% 40 Delegates
MO Primary: Feb.07: RS55.2% MR25.3% RP12.2% 00 Delegates
AZ Primary: Feb.28: MR47.3% RS26.6% NG16.2% RP08.5% 29 Delegates
MI Primary: Feb.28: MR41.1% RS37.9% RP11.6% NG06.5% 30 Delegates
WY Caucus: Feb.29: MR39.0% RS31.9% RP20.8% NG07.8% 29 Delegates
WA Caucus: Mar.3: MR37.6% RP24.8% RS23.8% NG10.3% 43Delegates
AK Caucus: Mar.6: MR32.6% RS29% RP24.0% NG14.2% 27 Delegates
GA Primary: Mar.6: NG47.2% MR25.9% RS19.6% RP:06.5% 76 Delegates
ID Caucus: Mar.6: MR63.2% RP17.4% RS17.1% NG02.2% 32 Delegates
MA Primary: Mar.6: MR:72.1% RP:12.1% RS09.6% NG:04.0% 41 Delegates
ND Caucus: Mar.6: RS39.7% RP28.1% MR23.7% NG08.5% 28 Delegates
OH Primary: Mar.6: MR38.4% RS37.4% NG14.8% RP09.4% 66 Delegates
OK Primary: Mar.6: RS33.8% MR28.0% NG27.5% RP09.6% 43 Delegates
TN Primary: Mar.6: RS37.2% MR28.0% NG24.0% RP09.1% 58 Delegates
VT Primary: Mar.6: MR40.3% RP25.1% RS23.4% NG08.3% 17 Delegates
VA Primary: Mar.6: MR59.5% RP40.5% 49 Delegates
KS Caucus: Mar.10: RS:51.2 MR:20.9% NG:14.4 RP:12.6% 40 Delegates
NMI: Mar.10: MR:87.3% RS:06.3% RP:03.3% NG:03.2% 09 Delegates
VI Caucus : Mar.10 : MR:34.4% RP:29.2% RS:06.0% NG:04.7% 09 Delegates
Guam Caucus : Mar. 10: MR:100% 09 Delegates
AL Primary: Mar. 13: RS:34.5% NG29.3% MR29.0% RP05.0% 50 Delegates
HI Caucus: Mar.13: MR45.4% RS25.3% RP:18.3% NG11.0% 20 Delegates
MS Primary: Mar.13: RS32.9% NG31.3% MR30.3% RP04.4% 40 Delegates
AS Caucus: Mar.13: MR:100% 09 Delegates
PR Primary: Mar.18:
MR:82.9% RS:08.0% BR:02.2% NG:02.0% FK:01.7% RP:01.2% 23 Delegates
IL Primary: Mar.20: MR:46.7% RS:35.0% RP:09.3% NG:07.9% 54Delegates
LA Primary: Mar.24: RS49.0% MR:26.7% NG:15.9% RP:06.2% 20 Delegates
MD Primary: Apr.03: no polls but Romney should win here 37 Delegates
DC Primary: Apr.03: no polls but Romney should win here 19 Delegates
Wi Primary: Apr.03: MR36.8% NG07.6% RP10.1% RS31.4% 42 Deelegates
Delegates:
Mitt Romney: 564 + 32 +2 = 598
Ron Paul: 068 + 01 = 069
RickSantorum: 288 + 02 = 290
Newt Gingrich: 140 + 03 = 143
If the presidential election would be held today a Generic GOP candidate could get 323EV! President Obama could get 205EV! 10EV from MN are a toss-up! A candidate needs 270EV to get elected!
Mitt Romney 53.2% 45.0% Barack Hussein Obama
Rick Santorum 51.4% 47.7% Barack Hussein Obama
Newt Gingrich 45.3% 51.5% Barack Hussein Obama
Ron Paul 47.6% 47.8% Barack Hussein Obama
If its Mitt Romney against Obama it would be:
290 EV 218 EV 030 EV toss-up
If its Newt Gingrich against Obama it would be:
149 EV 389 EV 000 EV toss-up
If its Ron Paul against Obama it would be:
215 EV 221 EV 102 EV toss-up
If its Rick Santorum against Obama it would be:
176 EV 216 EV 146 EV toss-up
Senate:
2010: GOP: 47 DEM: 51 IND: 02
2012: GOP: 52 DEM: 45 IND: 01 -1 Toss-up: 2
Takeover GOP: MO MT NE VA WI
DEM:
Toss-up: CT FL
Governor:
2010: GOP: 29 DEM: 20 IND: 01
2012: GOP: 33 DEM: 16 IND: 01 Toss-up: 1
Takeover GOP: MT NC WA WV
DEM:
Toss-up: IN
President: Approve/Disapprove
Strong approve Obama:
CA: (53.2/41.0)
DC (85.0/15.0)
DE:(56.6/43.5)
HI (59.2/36.7)
MA (56.0/38.2)
MD (54.4/41.6)
NY (65.1/29.3)
VT (54.3/37.3)
Lean approve Obama:
CT:(52.8/43.3)
IL: (51.9/42.2)
MI (50.5/43.4)
RI (51.4/41.5)
NJ: (50.6/43.0)
WA (50.2/44.9)
WI: (49.9/44.8)
Weak approve Obama:
Strong disapprove :
AL (59.9/39.0)
AK (59.8/38.8)
AZ (54.7/41.0)
AR (63.7/33.2)
ID (71.0/29.0)
IN (56.0/40.5)
KS (62.2/36.0)
KY (58.0/35.9)
LA (59.7/39.0)
MS (57.8/39.7)
MT (58.6/38.8)
NE (60.6/37.3)
ND (60.7/38.7)
OK (66.4/33.4)
SD (58.1/40.7)
TN (52.4/39.6)
TX (52.8/39.7)
UT (69.3/28.1)
WV (63.3/29.1)
WY (68.9/30.4)
Lean disapprove:
CO (50.0/43.8)
FL (50.6/46.0)
GA (49.6/42.8)
MO (52.1/42.8)
NH (50.0/43.2)
NM: (49.7/44.3)
NV (50.1/43.9)
OH (49.5/43.6)
OR:(52.7/44.6)
PA (49.6/45.2)
SC (49.1/43.6)
Weak disapprove :
IA: (47.7/45.7)
ME:(47.7/47.0)
NC (50.2/47.0)
VA: (47.0/48.3)
Toss-up:
MN:( 46.9/46.9)
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Hash on April 01, 2012, 03:52:41 PM
Stop posting.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Ben Romney on April 10, 2012, 05:17:57 PM
GOP Primary: National: Mitt Romney is the frontrunners now!
Romney:41.4% Paul:10.7% Gingrich:09.8%
Romney :AK AZ CA CT DC FL HI IN ID IL MA MD ME MI NH NC NJ NV NY OH OR PA RI SD TX UT VA VT WA WI WY
Gingrich:GA KY MT NE NM SC WV
Santorum:AL CO IA LA MN MO MS ND OK TN
IA Caucus: Jan.3:
RS24.6% MR24.5% RP21.5% NG13.3% RP010.3% MB05.0% JH00.6% 25 Delegates
NH Primary: Jan.10:
MR39.3% RP22.9% JH16.9% NG09.4% RS09.4% RP00.7% 12 Delegates
SC Primary: Jan.21:
NG40.4% MR27.9% RS17.0% RP13.0% 25 Delegates
FL Primary: Jan.31:
MR46.4% NG31.9% RS13.3% RP07.0% 50 Delegates
NV Primary: Feb.04:
MR50.0% NG21.1% RP18.7% RS09.9% 28 Delegates
ME Primary: Feb.04-11: MR:39.2% RP:35.7% RS17.7% NG:06.3% 24 Delegates
Co Caucus: Feb.07: RS40.2% MR:34.9% NG:12.8% RP:11.8% 36 Delegates
MN Primary: Feb.07: RS44.8% RP27.2% MR16.9% NG10.7% 40 Delegates
MO Primary: Feb.07: RS55.2% MR25.3% RP12.2% 00 Delegates
AZ Primary: Feb.28: MR47.3% RS26.6% NG16.2% RP08.5% 29 Delegates
MI Primary: Feb.28: MR41.1% RS37.9% RP11.6% NG06.5% 30 Delegates
WY Caucus: Feb.29: MR39.0% RS31.9% RP20.8% NG07.8% 29 Delegates
WA Caucus: Mar.3: MR37.6% RP24.8% RS23.8% NG10.3% 43Delegates
AK Caucus: Mar.6: MR32.6% RS29% RP24.0% NG14.2% 27 Delegates
GA Primary: Mar.6: NG47.2% MR25.9% RS19.6% RP:06.5% 76 Delegates
ID Caucus: Mar.6: MR63.2% RP17.4% RS17.1% NG02.2% 32 Delegates
MA Primary: Mar.6: MR:72.1% RP:12.1% RS09.6% NG:04.0% 41 Delegates
ND Caucus: Mar.6: RS39.7% RP28.1% MR23.7% NG08.5% 28 Delegates
OH Primary: Mar.6: MR38.4% RS37.4% NG14.8% RP09.4% 66 Delegates
OK Primary: Mar.6: RS33.8% MR28.0% NG27.5% RP09.6% 43 Delegates
TN Primary: Mar.6: RS37.2% MR28.0% NG24.0% RP09.1% 58 Delegates
VT Primary: Mar.6: MR40.3% RP25.1% RS23.4% NG08.3% 17 Delegates
VA Primary: Mar.6: MR59.5% RP40.5% 49 Delegates
KS Caucus: Mar.10: RS:51.2 MR:20.9% NG:14.4 RP:12.6% 40 Delegates
NMI: Mar.10: MR:87.3% RS:06.3% RP:03.3% NG:03.2% 09 Delegates
VI Caucus : Mar.10 : MR:34.4% RP:29.2% RS:06.0% NG:04.7% 09 Delegates
Guam Caucus : Mar. 10: MR:100% 09 Delegates
AL Primary: Mar. 13: RS:34.5% NG29.3% MR29.0% RP05.0% 50 Delegates
HI Caucus: Mar.13: MR45.4% RS25.3% RP:18.3% NG11.0% 20 Delegates
MS Primary: Mar.13: RS32.9% NG31.3% MR30.3% RP04.4% 40 Delegates
AS Caucus: Mar.13: MR:100% 09 Delegates
PR Primary: Mar.18: MR:82.9% RS:08.0% BR:02.2% NG:02.0% FK:01.7% RP:01.2% 23 Delegates
IL Primary: Mar.20: MR:46.7% RS:35.0% RP:09.3% NG:07.9% 54Delegates
MO Caucus: Apr.10: no polls but Santorum should win here
LA Primary: Mar.24: RS49.0% MR:26.7% NG:15.9% RP:06.2% 20 Delegates
MD Primary: Apr.03: MR49.1% RS28.9% NG10.9% RP09.5% 37 Delegates
DC Primary: Apr.03: MR70.2% RP12.0% NG10.7% JH07.0% 19 Delegates
Wi Primary: Apr.03: MR42.5% RS37.6% RP11.7% NG06.1% 42Deelegates
Prediction:
CT Primary: Apr.24: MR:36.7% NG:20.4% RP.07.8% 28 Delegates
DE Primary: Apr.24: no polls available yet 17 Delegates
NY Primary: Apr.24: MR47.7% NG09.2% RP10.5% 95 Delegates
PA Primary: Apr.24: MR37.3% NG06.7% RP08.3% 72 Delegates
RI Primary: Apr.24: MR39.0% NG13.0% RP05.0% 19 Delegates
Delegates:
Mitt Romney: 647 + 32 +2 = 681
Ron Paul: 068 + 01 = 069
RickSantorum: 291 + 02 = 293
Newt Gingrich: 140 + 03 = 143
If the presidential election would be held today a Generic GOP candidate could get 339 EV!President Obama could get 189 EV! 10EV from MN are a toss-up!
A candidate needs 270 EV to get elected!
Mitt Romney 51.0% 46.4% Barack Hussein Obama
Newt Gingrich 45.8% 50.3% Barack Hussein Obama
Ron Paul 47.6% 46.1% Barack Hussein Obama
If its Mitt Romney against Obama it would be: 204 EV 220 EV 114 EV toss-up
If its Newt Gingrich against Obama it would be: 149 EV 374 EV 015 EV toss-up
If its Ron Paul against Obama it would be: 215 EV 221 EV 102 EV toss-up
Senate:
2010: GOP: 47 DEM: 51 IND: 02
2012: GOP: 49 DEM: 46 IND: 02 Toss-up: 3
Takeover GOP: MO MT NE VA
DEM:
IND: ME
Toss-up: CT MA WI
Governor:
2010: GOP: 29 DEM: 20 IND: 01
2012: GOP: 32 DEM: 16 IND: 01 Toss-up: 2
Takeover GOP: MT NC WA WV
DEM:
Toss-up: IN WI
President: Approve/Disapprove
Strong approve Obama:
CA: (53.2/41.0)
DC (85.0/15.0)
DE:(56.6/43.5)
HI (59.2/36.7)
MA (56.0/38.6)
MD (54.4/41.6)
NY (59.2/36.4)
VT (54.3/37.3)
Lean approve Obama:
CT:(52.8/43.3)
IL: (51.9/42.2)
ME:(47.7/47.0)
RI (51.4/41.5)
NJ: (50.6/43.0)
WA (50.2/44.9)
Weak approve Obama:
WI: (50.2/43.5)
Strong disapprove :
AL (59.9/39.0)
AK (59.8/38.8)
AZ (54.7/41.0)
AR (63.7/33.2)
ID (71.0/29.0)
IN (56.0/39.7)
KS (62.2/36.0)
KY (58.0/35.9)
LA (59.7/39.0)
MS (57.8/39.7)
MT (58.6/38.8)
NE (55.5/37.7)
ND (60.7/38.7)
OK (66.4/33.4)
SD (58.1/40.7)
TN (52.4/39.6)
TX (52.8/39.7)
UT (69.3/28.1)
WV (63.3/29.1)
WY (68.9/30.4)
Lean disapprove:
GA (49.6/42.8)
MI (49.2/47.2)
MO (52.1/42.8)
NH (50.0/43.2)
NM: (49.7/44.3)
OH (49.3/45.3)
OR:(52.7/44.6)
PA (50.2/43.8)
SC (49.1/43.6)
VA: (48.7/44.7)
Weak disapprove :
CO (48.5/46.9)
FL (49.8/46.5)
IA: (47.7/45.7)
NC (49.6/45.5)
NV (48.0/46.9)
Toss-up:
MN:( 46.9/46.9)
Romney:41.4% Paul:10.7% Gingrich:09.8%
Romney :AK AZ CA CT DC FL HI IN ID IL MA MD ME MI NH NC NJ NV NY OH OR PA RI SD TX UT VA VT WA WI WY
Gingrich:GA KY MT NE NM SC WV
Santorum:AL CO IA LA MN MO MS ND OK TN
IA Caucus: Jan.3:
RS24.6% MR24.5% RP21.5% NG13.3% RP010.3% MB05.0% JH00.6% 25 Delegates
NH Primary: Jan.10:
MR39.3% RP22.9% JH16.9% NG09.4% RS09.4% RP00.7% 12 Delegates
SC Primary: Jan.21:
NG40.4% MR27.9% RS17.0% RP13.0% 25 Delegates
FL Primary: Jan.31:
MR46.4% NG31.9% RS13.3% RP07.0% 50 Delegates
NV Primary: Feb.04:
MR50.0% NG21.1% RP18.7% RS09.9% 28 Delegates
ME Primary: Feb.04-11: MR:39.2% RP:35.7% RS17.7% NG:06.3% 24 Delegates
Co Caucus: Feb.07: RS40.2% MR:34.9% NG:12.8% RP:11.8% 36 Delegates
MN Primary: Feb.07: RS44.8% RP27.2% MR16.9% NG10.7% 40 Delegates
MO Primary: Feb.07: RS55.2% MR25.3% RP12.2% 00 Delegates
AZ Primary: Feb.28: MR47.3% RS26.6% NG16.2% RP08.5% 29 Delegates
MI Primary: Feb.28: MR41.1% RS37.9% RP11.6% NG06.5% 30 Delegates
WY Caucus: Feb.29: MR39.0% RS31.9% RP20.8% NG07.8% 29 Delegates
WA Caucus: Mar.3: MR37.6% RP24.8% RS23.8% NG10.3% 43Delegates
AK Caucus: Mar.6: MR32.6% RS29% RP24.0% NG14.2% 27 Delegates
GA Primary: Mar.6: NG47.2% MR25.9% RS19.6% RP:06.5% 76 Delegates
ID Caucus: Mar.6: MR63.2% RP17.4% RS17.1% NG02.2% 32 Delegates
MA Primary: Mar.6: MR:72.1% RP:12.1% RS09.6% NG:04.0% 41 Delegates
ND Caucus: Mar.6: RS39.7% RP28.1% MR23.7% NG08.5% 28 Delegates
OH Primary: Mar.6: MR38.4% RS37.4% NG14.8% RP09.4% 66 Delegates
OK Primary: Mar.6: RS33.8% MR28.0% NG27.5% RP09.6% 43 Delegates
TN Primary: Mar.6: RS37.2% MR28.0% NG24.0% RP09.1% 58 Delegates
VT Primary: Mar.6: MR40.3% RP25.1% RS23.4% NG08.3% 17 Delegates
VA Primary: Mar.6: MR59.5% RP40.5% 49 Delegates
KS Caucus: Mar.10: RS:51.2 MR:20.9% NG:14.4 RP:12.6% 40 Delegates
NMI: Mar.10: MR:87.3% RS:06.3% RP:03.3% NG:03.2% 09 Delegates
VI Caucus : Mar.10 : MR:34.4% RP:29.2% RS:06.0% NG:04.7% 09 Delegates
Guam Caucus : Mar. 10: MR:100% 09 Delegates
AL Primary: Mar. 13: RS:34.5% NG29.3% MR29.0% RP05.0% 50 Delegates
HI Caucus: Mar.13: MR45.4% RS25.3% RP:18.3% NG11.0% 20 Delegates
MS Primary: Mar.13: RS32.9% NG31.3% MR30.3% RP04.4% 40 Delegates
AS Caucus: Mar.13: MR:100% 09 Delegates
PR Primary: Mar.18: MR:82.9% RS:08.0% BR:02.2% NG:02.0% FK:01.7% RP:01.2% 23 Delegates
IL Primary: Mar.20: MR:46.7% RS:35.0% RP:09.3% NG:07.9% 54Delegates
MO Caucus: Apr.10: no polls but Santorum should win here
LA Primary: Mar.24: RS49.0% MR:26.7% NG:15.9% RP:06.2% 20 Delegates
MD Primary: Apr.03: MR49.1% RS28.9% NG10.9% RP09.5% 37 Delegates
DC Primary: Apr.03: MR70.2% RP12.0% NG10.7% JH07.0% 19 Delegates
Wi Primary: Apr.03: MR42.5% RS37.6% RP11.7% NG06.1% 42Deelegates
Prediction:
CT Primary: Apr.24: MR:36.7% NG:20.4% RP.07.8% 28 Delegates
DE Primary: Apr.24: no polls available yet 17 Delegates
NY Primary: Apr.24: MR47.7% NG09.2% RP10.5% 95 Delegates
PA Primary: Apr.24: MR37.3% NG06.7% RP08.3% 72 Delegates
RI Primary: Apr.24: MR39.0% NG13.0% RP05.0% 19 Delegates
Delegates:
Mitt Romney: 647 + 32 +2 = 681
Ron Paul: 068 + 01 = 069
RickSantorum: 291 + 02 = 293
Newt Gingrich: 140 + 03 = 143
If the presidential election would be held today a Generic GOP candidate could get 339 EV!President Obama could get 189 EV! 10EV from MN are a toss-up!
A candidate needs 270 EV to get elected!
Mitt Romney 51.0% 46.4% Barack Hussein Obama
Newt Gingrich 45.8% 50.3% Barack Hussein Obama
Ron Paul 47.6% 46.1% Barack Hussein Obama
If its Mitt Romney against Obama it would be: 204 EV 220 EV 114 EV toss-up
If its Newt Gingrich against Obama it would be: 149 EV 374 EV 015 EV toss-up
If its Ron Paul against Obama it would be: 215 EV 221 EV 102 EV toss-up
Senate:
2010: GOP: 47 DEM: 51 IND: 02
2012: GOP: 49 DEM: 46 IND: 02 Toss-up: 3
Takeover GOP: MO MT NE VA
DEM:
IND: ME
Toss-up: CT MA WI
Governor:
2010: GOP: 29 DEM: 20 IND: 01
2012: GOP: 32 DEM: 16 IND: 01 Toss-up: 2
Takeover GOP: MT NC WA WV
DEM:
Toss-up: IN WI
President: Approve/Disapprove
Strong approve Obama:
CA: (53.2/41.0)
DC (85.0/15.0)
DE:(56.6/43.5)
HI (59.2/36.7)
MA (56.0/38.6)
MD (54.4/41.6)
NY (59.2/36.4)
VT (54.3/37.3)
Lean approve Obama:
CT:(52.8/43.3)
IL: (51.9/42.2)
ME:(47.7/47.0)
RI (51.4/41.5)
NJ: (50.6/43.0)
WA (50.2/44.9)
Weak approve Obama:
WI: (50.2/43.5)
Strong disapprove :
AL (59.9/39.0)
AK (59.8/38.8)
AZ (54.7/41.0)
AR (63.7/33.2)
ID (71.0/29.0)
IN (56.0/39.7)
KS (62.2/36.0)
KY (58.0/35.9)
LA (59.7/39.0)
MS (57.8/39.7)
MT (58.6/38.8)
NE (55.5/37.7)
ND (60.7/38.7)
OK (66.4/33.4)
SD (58.1/40.7)
TN (52.4/39.6)
TX (52.8/39.7)
UT (69.3/28.1)
WV (63.3/29.1)
WY (68.9/30.4)
Lean disapprove:
GA (49.6/42.8)
MI (49.2/47.2)
MO (52.1/42.8)
NH (50.0/43.2)
NM: (49.7/44.3)
OH (49.3/45.3)
OR:(52.7/44.6)
PA (50.2/43.8)
SC (49.1/43.6)
VA: (48.7/44.7)
Weak disapprove :
CO (48.5/46.9)
FL (49.8/46.5)
IA: (47.7/45.7)
NC (49.6/45.5)
NV (48.0/46.9)
Toss-up:
MN:( 46.9/46.9)
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 12, 2012, 05:41:34 PM
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Miles on April 12, 2012, 05:43:09 PM
Or at least make your own thread.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Grumpier Than Thou on April 12, 2012, 05:45:24 PM
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on April 15, 2012, 01:48:48 PM
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Oakvale on April 15, 2012, 01:52:37 PM
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on April 15, 2012, 02:47:57 PM
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2012, 02:49:11 PM
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Oakvale on April 15, 2012, 02:55:51 PM
I'd like to make it clear to anyone who's confused that the string of empty quoting is directed at Hillary2012, not Tender Branson, who is a Freedom Fighter of the highest strata.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 15, 2012, 02:58:15 PM
I'd like to make it clear to anyone who reads this that empty quoting is not very beneficial to the forum, and it's especially annoying when the same post is made 7 times in a row.
;)
;)
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 15, 2012, 03:05:41 PM
And, yes, Tender is the best!
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Oakvale on April 15, 2012, 03:06:07 PM
I'd like to make it clear to anyone who reads this that empty quoting is not very beneficial to the forum, and it's especially annoying when the same post is made 7 times in a row.
;)
;)
It's for a good cause!
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on April 16, 2012, 05:54:50 PM
I'd like to make it clear to anyone who reads this that empty quoting is not very beneficial to the forum, and it's especially annoying when the same post is made 7 times in a row.
;)
;)
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on April 16, 2012, 06:30:18 PM
I'd like to make it clear to anyone who reads this that empty quoting is not very beneficial to the forum, and it's especially annoying when the same post is made 7 times in a row.
;)
;)
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on April 17, 2012, 02:00:06 PM
I'd like to make it clear to anyone who reads this that empty quoting is not very beneficial to the forum, and it's especially annoying when the same post is made 7 times in a row.
;)
;)
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Oakvale on April 17, 2012, 02:03:27 PM
Okay, yeah, let's stop now.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: morgieb on April 17, 2012, 07:23:47 PM
I'd like to make it clear to anyone who reads this that empty quoting is not very beneficial to the forum, and it's especially annoying when the same post is made 7 times in a row.
;)
;)
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 17, 2012, 08:08:26 PM
Tender, I think you should just give Iowa to Obama. That last poll was probably an outlier. :P
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on May 04, 2012, 01:05:39 AM
Update:
(
)
Looks very 2008-ish.
(
Looks very 2008-ish.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: pbrower2a on May 08, 2012, 07:57:11 PM
Update:
()
Looks very 2008-ish.
(
Looks very 2008-ish.
(
Even more so. Iowa just went deep red and Ohio went mid-red (colors of this website) according to the most recent PPP polls.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on May 17, 2012, 11:57:58 PM
We use Red for Democrats here and Blue for the GOP !!!
Otherwise I get eye-cancer !
Otherwise I get eye-cancer !
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on May 20, 2012, 12:40:20 AM
Update:
(
)
(
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on May 20, 2012, 10:47:11 AM
Update (TN goes from Romney+1 among Adults to Romney+7 among Registered Voters):
(
)
(
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on May 23, 2012, 09:03:19 AM
Update (NC goes from "slight Romney" to "tossup", FL goes from "tossup" to "lean Romney"):
(
)
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on May 24, 2012, 12:32:16 AM
Update (WI from "slight" to "lean" Obama - CA, MA and GA remain "strong"):
(
)
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 24, 2012, 10:46:36 PM
Out of curiosity, why is Florida "Lean Romney" and not "Slight Romney" or even "Tossup", considering that Mitt only leads by .5% on the RCP average?
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on May 24, 2012, 11:26:27 PM
Out of curiosity, why is Florida "Lean Romney" and not "Slight Romney" or even "Tossup", considering that Mitt only leads by .5% on the RCP average?
Because I only use the latest poll, which is Quinnipiac (Romney+6),
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2012, 04:03:15 AM
Update (CA, MD, MI & CO):
(
)
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2012, 02:09:59 PM
Update (WI back to "strong Obama", MO to tossup):
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As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on May 31, 2012, 05:59:49 AM
Update (NV to "slight Obama", CO & IA to tossup):
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As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Fritz on May 31, 2012, 05:20:36 PM
Shouldn't Ohio be changed?
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on June 06, 2012, 04:42:49 AM
Update (OH, VA, FL, WI, PA):
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As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: argentarius on June 06, 2012, 11:21:27 PM
Tender could you do a special request? I would like one map showing PPP polls and another showing non-PPP polls.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on June 07, 2012, 06:14:58 AM
Tender could you do a special request? I would like one map showing PPP polls and another showing non-PPP polls.
I see no reason for this, because PPP is a legitimate and usually accurate pollster.
...
Update (VA):
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on June 25, 2012, 11:34:24 PM
Update:
(
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As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on June 26, 2012, 11:36:23 AM
Update:
(
)
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on July 19, 2012, 04:36:20 AM
Update:
(
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As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on August 01, 2012, 03:10:11 AM
Update (I also changed NE-02, TN and SC to "strong GOP" because the polls are really old):
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As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 01, 2012, 10:41:17 AM
The South Carolina poll might be old, but I'm expecting that Romney's margin of victory will be on either side of the 10% cutoff between Lean and Strong.
Also going all the way from Slight R to Strong R in NE-02 seems a bit of an over correction.
Also going all the way from Slight R to Strong R in NE-02 seems a bit of an over correction.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on August 01, 2012, 10:44:24 AM
The South Carolina poll might be old, but I'm expecting that Romney's margin of victory will be on either side of the 10% cutoff between Lean and Strong.
Also going all the way from Slight R to Strong R in NE-02 seems a bit of an over correction.
Also going all the way from Slight R to Strong R in NE-02 seems a bit of an over correction.
I simply want new polls and I can change it again if they show similar close results.
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on August 06, 2012, 01:34:55 PM
Update:
(
)
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: JoeBlow on August 07, 2012, 10:52:07 AM
• I think you need to evaluate other factors such as the overall good he’s doine and has done in the global perception of America. Posted by Joe
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Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on August 07, 2012, 11:21:41 AM
• I think you need to evaluate other factors such as the overall good he’s doine and has done in the global perception of America. Posted by Joe
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Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on August 07, 2012, 01:27:36 PM
Update (no change in Colorado, which is Obama+3, because of an Obama+6 poll from PPP and a tie from Rasmussen, while North Carolina moves back to toss-up because of a Obama+3 poll from PPP and an earlier Romney+5 poll produces a Romney+1 average, which according to Atlas rules is a polling map tie):
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As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on September 23, 2012, 01:33:09 AM
Update:
(
)
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2012, 01:08:59 AM
Update:
Don't know if I should colour AZ as "toss-up" or "slight Romney".
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As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Don't know if I should colour AZ as "toss-up" or "slight Romney".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 15, 2012, 01:59:15 AM
Mmmm, man, I gotta say: I think you need to move AZ into slight Romney. Also, while I agree with the method and it works fine in general, seeing PA and OH lit up the same color gives me weird vibes...
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2012, 01:18:35 PM
Update (MI, PA, AZ):
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As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
(
As a reference, I use the Atlas scales here, which means 0-1% is considered "tossup", 2-4% is considered "slight", 5-9% is considered "lean" and 10+ is considered "strong".
Title: Re: Tender Branson's General Election Maps
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 15, 2012, 01:39:25 PM
I'd say it looks like a perfect snapshot. Thanks for these maps, TB!