Talk Elections

Imagine that fair and free elections for President of Earth are held in the not-too-distant future.

For instance, here's a generic map (via Wikipedia) where countries vote according to GDP (PPP).  Orange countries have PPP GDP below the world average, blue countries have PPP GDP above the world average.

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However, given what we've observed in other elections we'd be unlikely to see quite so strong "class" based voting. What other factors would be involved? What coalitions do the major candidates draw upon? Who are some strong candidates?

Barack Obama vs Hugo Chavez

I think this a plausible matchup - an establishment Western candidate versus a populist non-Western candidate.

I think Obama would be likely to win by a significant margin, though much of this is personal favourability. Chavez is strong in South America and the Middle East (except Israel), but has very little support in the West and is unable to overcome Obama's and the USA's popularity in Africa. Not sure on how Asia will play out, but I doubt it would be enough to give Chavez the win.

It could be an interesting race with a weaker Western candidate, though. I wonder how George W. Bush would do versus Chavez, particularly in rich but anti-Bush Western areas. Does Chavez win any US states or Western European countries?

Not really.

>America voting the same way as the progressive, civilized countries.

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The difference between the USA and Sweden culturally and politically is a lot smaller than the difference between the USA and Saudi Arabia or China.

Not really.  Swedes aren't barbarians.

I doubt you would see a candidate from the US winning many votes from the rest of the world, for the same reason we'll never see an American pope or UN Secretary General. Political elites in the US would probably end up supporting someone from Western Europe.

A lot would depend on how this "President of Earth" is elected. If it's a single round vote, you'd end up with a two-party system and probably see a map that looks a bit like the one in the OP, yeah, with nations roughly divided between core and periphery. There'd also be more geopolitical divisions, though. For example, Russia, Belarus, Venezuala, Iran, and the rest of the Arab world would probably be orange, while Colombia would be blue.

If it's a two-round system (or something like IRV), then you'd see a lot more regional candidates.

I agree it would be difficult for Americans in general, but Obama would be almost uniquely positioned to be able to win.


Although it could be a multi-round system, I'm mostly interested in what a two horse race would look like, whether it emerged "naturally" or via a run-off.

I imagine religion, race, and gender will play big roles. If the Western states put forward a Muslim or Atheist I think you'd lose the American vote...

True, but they'd have a shot at the African and Middle Eastern States, and I'm assuming there's no type of electoral collegeish system; it's pop vote right?  If so, the trade off might be comparable