Talk Elections

Okay guys, seeing as my old TL (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127788.0) was dying a slow death, I decided that I'd start over new for the 2014 midterms.

This is basically an extension of 2011 and Beyond....

Enjoy!

Excited!

Why not keep it in one thread?

I just thought it was time for a change.

Rachel: Welcome yet again to election night here on MSNBC. I'm Rachel Maddow and joining me are my friends Chuck Todd and Chris Matthews here to analyze the results of Midterm Night 2014.  We hope you will stay with us here at at MSNBC as we try to make sense of these results. Now, lets check in with our electoral guru Chuck!

Chuck: Thank you Rachel. Thats right. The polls, debates and votes have all come down to this night. President Obama's approval is standing at about even, 49% approving with 48% disapproving according to Gallup, we will no doubt see some very competitive races tonight. In the Senate, Republicans are hoping to pick up the 4 seats they need to flip control of the chamber, whereas House Democrats are eyeing a comeback. We'll also have a slew of Governoers races to watch for.

Chris:And it looks like we have our first results now. From the Bluegrass state, this was for Mitch McConnell's seat. The Republican leader's seat will actually going to a Democrat. The very popular Secretary of State, Alison Lundergan Grimes will be defeating Agriculture Commissioner Ritchie Farmer. Kentucky has long been a Democratic state, but Republicans have lately had a solid hold on its Senate seats. Not tonight.

Chuck: And its also worth noting that Grimes will be Kentucky's first woman Senator. This puts Republicans one seat further in the hole. Now, they'll need a net gain of 5 seats.

Rachel: We do have good news for Republican though. Senator Susan Collins will be comfortably reelected. Despite the blue lean of Maine, Collins defeats former Governor John Baldacci. Collins is one of the few Republicans who have worked with the President on major policy initiatives; her independent legislative record keeps her popular at home.
Chris: And the Republicans have another with. Governor Paul LePage will be heading back to Augusta. For the second time, he benefits from a split field; his to major opponents were Rep. Chillie Pingree and Independent Eliot Culter. Despite his tea party endorsements, voters never saw LePage as extreme. Still, this was one of most competitive races in the country. Going into tonight, this three-way contest was anyone's guess. Still, the AP projects LePage will come out on top.

Chuck: In West Virginia, earlier this year, longtime Senator Jay Rockefeller announced his retirement. His seat will be filled by Carte Goodwin, who served as an interim Senator after the death of Bob Byrd. Goodwin won against conservative businessman Bill Maloney; Goodwin was an early favorite after receiving endorsements from West Virginia's all-Democratic Congressional delegation. Maloney tried to tie his opponent to the unpopular Obama, but it wasn't enough. Goodwin's open House seat was filled by Secretary of State Natalie Tennant.

Yay it's back!

I still think that the Republicans can win back the Senate as 2008 was a really Democratic year, and Class II is a fairly Republican group.

Did LoBiondio, Bachus, Sessions, Roberts and Graham survive their primaries? And did anyone else (other than Durbin, Rockefeller, Levin, Merkley, McConnell, Alexander and Inhofe) retire?

Yes, this is back ^^!!! Obviously, southern democrats will have a great night (because the author loves dixies, as he's one of them hahaha).

Can't believe you brought LePage back for a second term. Can you alter it in favor of Pingree?

I'll cover that stuff as I roll out results :)

I did announce some retirements at the end of my old TL. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127788.645)

I'm crazy to see SC election night. Louisiana also, with Mme. Landrieu fighting for her seat (the only Southern seat in Democratic hands since Reconstruction). Senator Hagan fighting for re-election and Chambliss (may Cain-minus scandals have primaried him). A great election night...

Will Landrieu be able to survive? She always seems to squeak by but I'm sure Obama's approvals are underwater in Louisiana.

Yes, she will survive, for sure. Remember that Miles loves her ;)

Update soon, please!!!

My 'predictions'

Oregon: Merkley quitting makes it kinda competitive, but unless they run Smith, it'll probably remain in Democratic hands.

Montana: Leans Pickup. Baucus is very unpopular and Juneau is too liberal.

Wyoming: Safe, unless Enzi quits, where Frudenthal might run.

Idaho: Safe

Colorado: Udall's very visible - he should be fine.

New Mexico: Probable retention. Martinez or Wilson might make it kinda competitive, but maybe not.

Alaska: Tossup. Palin's very polarising, but Alaska is a very red state.

South Dakota: With Johnson running again, he should be favoured.

Nebraska: Safe

Kansas: Safe, unless Roberts loses his primary and Selebius runs.

Oklahoma: Semi-interesting, but it'll most likely remain in Republican hands.

Texas: Semi-interesting, but the Democrats need a really strong candidate.

Minnesota: Probably leans Democratic, but Pawlenty is probably more of a threat than Coleman.

Iowa: Safe unless the country turns sour, which it doesn't appear to be doing.

Illinois: Despite Durbin's retirement, I doubt they'll hand over both seats to the Republicans, plus they have a very strong candidate here.

Michigan: Toss-up. Republicans have a stronger bench here, but it also leans blue.

Arkansas: Leans Democratic, Pryor isn't an exceptionally strong candidate, but you let Lincoln pull off an upset (iirc?) and Pryor also has a famous last-name.

Louisiana: Landrieu would probably lose in real life, but given the identity of the person doing the TL, she probably will eek out another win :p

Mississippi: Cochran might retire, which could maybe make it interesting, but it's not likely.

Alabama: Easy win.

Georgia: Competitive on paper, but the Democrats don't have strong candidates.

South Carolina: ditto.

Tennessee: The Democrats won the other seat, I'm not sure if the state will elect 2.

North Carolina: Leans Hagan, but will be competitive if the Republicans find a strong candidate.

Virginia: Warner is probably unbeatable, even against McDonnell.

Delaware: Safe.

New Jersey: Depends on LoBiondio's primary. If he wins it, he's the favourite, otherwise Democratic gain.

Rhode Island: Safe

Massachusetts: Safe

New Hampshire: Interesting, but Shaheen will probably hang on.

To be fair, Landrieu has a 50% approval rating from the last poll I saw a couple months ago (which had Obama down in the general by 16 or so, so it seems accurate)

As I've said before, I expect a good night for southern democrats... but Miles always surprises us, so I can't make any reasonable prediction. I hope the democrat wins in Montana...

Miles, are you there? Don't forget you have to update this SOON!!!

Update today.

Chuck: Welcome back! We start off with an interesting and closely-watched race in South Carolina. I wouldn't really call this a thre--way rac; its more like a two-and-a half candidate race. Congressman Mick Mulvaney knocked off Senator Lindsey Graham in the GOP primary. Graham however, decided to run as a Write-In candidate. Here's a but of history for our viewers: exactly 60 years ago, Strom Thurmond won his write-in candidacy for this very same seat. The Democrat in this race was a man who no one seems to know much about, Mr. Alvin Greene. Greene was by no means a serious campaigner and his candidacy seemed to produce an an endless amount of gaffes. With about 10 counties left to report and only 47% of precincts in, Mulvaney is clinging to a lead of less than 2 points, with Greene a very distant third.

Rachel: And we do have a few other notable races in South Craolina. Governor Nikki Haley was easily reelected over Charleston councilman Vic Rawl. Vince Sheheen, who narrowly lost to Haley in 2010, won Mick Mulavaney's open House seat. Before Mulvaney, that seat had been in Democratic hands for over a century. This brings South Carolina's House delegation to 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats.

lol Greene.

I doubt we'd nominate Greene again, and Haley would either be primaried or lose.

I also think it's unlikely democrats would nominate Greene. However, he may have been the only democrat on the primary ballot, so...

Let's see if Graham wins this. If he does, it may be the beginning of the death of conservative (teabagger) craziness in the USA.

Wait, Greene may not have won the 2010 primary in this scenario. Otherwise, I'd agree that he couldn't win again. Didn't he try for a State Representative slot earlier this year and got like, 2%?

This TL starts in 2011, so Greene won in 2010 as he did in RL.
And yes, he ran this year and got a ridiculous result.

Chris: And now we have a few more closely-watched races coming in. Tonight is a good night to have the last name "Brown." Both former Senators Sherrod Brown and Scott Brown have successfully made political comebacks.

In Ohio, Democratic Governor Ted Strickland was term-limited. Despite Brown's loss in 2012, Ohio Republicans have become increasingly unpopular. While Governor Strickland leaves office with an lukewarm 41/45 approval rating, Ohioans give the Republican Legislative Majority a dismal 32/51 rating. Those numbers translated into an uphill battle for Republican nominee Josh Mandel. While Mandel did well in the west, Brown but together a coalition of the urban north and Appalachian east to win.


Rachel: And in my state of Massachusetts, we will have a new Governor. Governor Duval Patrick forewent a 3rd term in favoring of becoming the new DNC Chairman. While Scott Brown was voted out of his Senate seat in 2012, polls showed that Bay State voters still viewed him favorably. Brown built a geographic coalition similar to that of his 2010 Senate upset. Lieutenant Governor Tim Murray will be losing this race by about 6 points.

Also, very popular Senator John Kerry went unopposed.

Can't wait for the results from the Georgia races! My predictions:

Close races for both the senate and the governorship. I think Chambliss cleans up in the rural areas of the state but is finally too conservative for metro Atlanta. He narrowly loses reelection. Nathan Deal does better in the suburbs of Atlanta and wins a second term as governor.

I'm glad Sherrod has been elected governor. He didn't deserve to leave politics that soon.

Chris: Now lets move down to the state of Tennessee; here we have good news for both parties. Last year Senator Lamar Alexander announced his retirement. Well, popular Governor Bill Haslam will be heading to Washington to take his place; he defeats Congressman Jim Cooper. Cooper ran a good campaign, but with an approval rating of 57/39, Haslam was a strong favorite and will be winning by 17 points tonight. Democrats won Tennessee's other seat in 2012 with Bart Gordon, so it was always unlikely voters in this red-trending state would send two Democrats to the Senate; Haslam keeps this seat in GOP hands.
Now for the open statehouse, former Governor Phil Bredesen ran again. He left office in 2010, but he missed his old job; the DSCC even tried to draft him for Senate, but he instead ran for the Governorship again. Even though he's 70 years old, Bredesen is the most popular politician in the state, he has a 60/25 favorable rating. He will be defeating Lieutenant Governor Ron Ramsey. Ramsey ran a poor campaign filled with gaffes and struggled to fund raise. Bredesen  wins by 30 points, limiting Ramsey to only a handful of eastern counties.
Bredesen was known as a Governor who could cross party lines to pass legislation. He'll need that ability as a takes office again; he'll be working with Republican supermajorities in both Assembly chambers. 
Rachel: And we also have news from New Jersey. This was one of the more competitive races. We can project that Republican Senator Frank LoBiondo will be keeping his seat for a full term. If you remember, LoBiondo had scare in the primary against tea party Congressman Jon Runyan. Despite some of his liberal positions, LoBiondo had the endorsement of Governor Chris Christie. Christie's endorsement helped negate Runyan's challenge as LoBiondo won the primary by a 57-41 margin.
In the general election, Democrats ran Newark Mayor Cory Booker. Tonight it looks like Booker just didn't the turnout he needed in the upper portions of the state. By contrast, LoBiondo won his old district with 63% of the vote, a district that Barack Obama won in 2012 with 52%.

:( Poor Cory Booker

I think Chambliss will receive a primary challenge from the right. I would say either Tom Graves, Ashley Bell, or even Herman Cain.

Nathan Deal will likely coast to another term as governor.

Rachel: And now we have more southern states rolling in results. We start in the Carolinas. Senator Kay Hagan will be winning a second term as she defeats Speaker of the NC Assembly Thom Tillis. Hagan benefited from the campaign infrastructure from the 2012 DNC that was in North Carolina and she ran ahead of Tillis in fundraising. Hagan hammered Tillis on his work in the Assembly as he advocated bills that would restrict voting access and drastically cut education programs. In PPP's last poll confirmed the effectiveness of the Democrat's attacks; 42% voters viewed Tillis as "extreme" compared to only 31% for Hagan.
Chuck:We can also confirm that Senator Lindsey Graham will be coming out ahead in that three-way race in South Carolina; Graham dominated in the his old House district and cobbled together pluralities in the Columbia and Charleston areas to win. This was truly a great effort on the part of the Graham people. They studied Lisa Murkowski's successful write-in campaign 4 years earlier. Graham had the added benefit of a weak opponent. Greene ran for the Democratic nomination in 2010 but was defeated by Vic Rawl. This time around, Greene got the nomination and ran possibly the most comical campaign in the county. In any case, Greene was an awful candidate; only 22% of voters had a favorable opinion of him and he only won a handful of heavily black counties.

Here are some interesting stats. Even though Mulvaney beat Graham 65/31 with registered  Republicans and lost Independents by only 50/45, Graham's advantage with Democrats allowed him to win. Graham beat Greene 55-39 with that Democrats as part of a coalition of moderate Republicans and Independents.
Well, with Senator Jim DeMint retiring in 2016, Mulvaney may have a better opportunity to run again.

Chris: Speaking of three-way races, lets to go Louisiana. If a Landrieu can't win in here, then no Democrat can. This looks it will be headed to a runoff; remember, Louisiana re-implemented its old jungle primary system. While Landrieu is ahead, she failed to secure the 50% needed to preclude another round of voting.

Chuck: Thats right. Landrieu's two strong opponents were both Republicans. Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne finishes second with 30% and Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungusser finishes third with 26%. Mr. Nungesser and Dardenne are bitter enemies, as they both ran for Lieutentant Governor in 2011. Neither Senator Vitter nor Governor Jindal made primary endorsements.

What may help Landrieu is that, while Nungesser has conceded, he has implied that he will not  endorse Dardenne in the runoff. So, assuming Landrieu holds her 43.5%, she'll only need to pick up 25% of Nungesser voters in the runoff.
In our exit polls, we asked Nungesser voters who their second choice would be; 48% picked Dardenne and 38% picked Landrieu with 14% unsure. Surely good news for Senator Landrieu.

Rachel: In Mississippi, Senator Thad Cochran had only third-party opponents. Despite talk of a tea party challenge from Congressman Steve Palazzo, Cochran faced little opposition in the primary and general. Cochran is perhaps the biggest pork farmer in the Senate; following in the tradition of Senators from Mississippi. He takes 87% with third parties taking a combined 13%.

Finally, in Alabama, we have two Republican wins despite top Democrat recruitment. For the Senate, Jeff Sessions, best known for his role on the Judiciary Committee, turns back former Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks. Then, in the slightly closer race for Governor, Robert Bentley keeps his seat against former Lieutenant Governor Jim Folsom. Even with candidates like Sparks and Folsom, Democrats can't seem to break the GOP dominance in Alabama.

Chuck: Now lets have a look at our compiled Senate map. Democrats have held West Virginia, North Carolina and Massachusetts and flipped Kentucky. Republicans have Maine, New Jersey, Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama; Graham from South Carolina will continue to caucus with the GOP as well. Louisiana will, of course, not be decided tonight. Already at a net loss of 1, the GOP needs to flip at least 5 more seats.

Oh, I thoguth democrats would have a chance in Alabama with Jim Folsom as their candidate. But it doesn't matter. He's a DINO.

Jim Folsom Jr. is a Harold Stassen who wins primaries only going to lose on a geral. Bob Bright or even Bud Cramer would be wisest choices to Senate.

I have a big update later today.

I have Senate/Gov races for about 8 states.

Can't wait!!

Rachel: Now we have a slew of races to report on. Lets start with a state thats always fun to watch: Florida. The current Governor, Rick Scott, was so unpopular that he lost his party's nomination this week. George P. Bush, son of former Governor Jeb Bush, ran against Scott and won 50-42 in the primary. Bush also ran in 2012 but lost a close race for his party's Senate nomination. Bush went on to face Congressman Ron Klein in the general election and will be winning with about 51%. For more lets go to our numbers man, Chuck Todd.

Chuck: Well, there were some interesting statistics here. First, Governor Rick Scott will be leaving office with a 32% approval rating. Another unpopular figure here is President George Bush; 38% have a favorable opinion of him while 51% don't. You may think that would have been a drag on the Republicans in this race. But, Jeb Bush remains a very popular; his favorables are at a strong 53/39 spread. So, Jeb Bush's popularity was a big asset to his son in the election.

Chris: Well, we have numbers in from the home state of George W. Bush. In Connecticut, Governor Dan Malloy loses a rematch to Tom Foley. Despite being a Democratic Governor in a blue state, Malloy was never popular.

This next state is very dear top me: Pennsylvania. Here, we also have another incumbent losing. Governor Tom Corbett  was best known for his controversial plan to split up Pennsylvania's electoral votes by Congressional district; this never did pass, but things like that caused voters to see him as too partisan. His opponent, Congressman Jason Altmire, a conservative Democrat, won with an unusually strong showing in the western part of the state. Altmire's win breaks the 2-term trend that most Pennsylvania Governor's get.

Chuck: In New York, we have a another landslide win for popular Governor Andrew Cuomo. His opponent was Doug Hoffman, a tea party Republican who was endorsed by Sarah Palin. Obviously, Palin's endorsement doesn't play very well in New York state politics. Cuomo wins with two-thirds of the vote.

Rachel: And we have a similar case in Maryland. Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown is elected, succeeding term-limited Martin O'Malley. Brown defeats a buddy of mine, former RNC Chair Michael Steele. In any case, Brown is widely viewed as a rising star in national Democratic politics.  

Chris: In Georgia, it looks like we have a good night for Republicans. Governor Nathan Deal will be wining a second term. Democrats had perhaps their strongest recruit possible here; Congressman John Barrow. While Barrow made this into a race, Deal's overwhelming strength in northern Georgia allows him a victory.
The Senate race wasn't as close. Senator Saxby Chambliss lost the primary to conservative advocate Herman Cain. Cain ran a great campaign and his fundraising was top-notch. Cain defeats 2008 Senate candidate Jim Martin.

Chuck: Now moving a few states over to Arkansas. Senator Mark Pryor, who's father was the very popular Senator David Pryor, is reelected to another term over Republican Secretary of State Mark Martin. In 2008, Pryor went unopposed, but this time, he'll be winning with a margin similar to that of his first Senate campaign.
When Vice President Mike Beebe resigned from office, he was replaced with Lieutenant Governor Mark Darr. Beebe left office with a 66% approval rating; Darr, by contrast, struggled to get his initiatives through the Democratic since then, as his approval stands at a poor 40/48 spread. To regain the Governorship, Democrats nominated Attorney General Dustin McDaniel. McDaniel easily defeats Darr.

So looking at our big map, we have Republicans flipping two seats while Democrats have picked up 3.

Ron Klein :P. Thank God he lost, he was a terrible Congressman. I live in his district. Awesome update, sad to see Scott go. Weird seeing Herman Cain in the Senate.

Poor GA dems... and did Dustin McDaniel win every district in Arkansas, or not?

Pryor and McDaniel both won the 3 Dixiecrat districts (1,2 and 4). McDaniel is from Fayetteville, but I don't think even he could carry the 3rd.

No update today (traveling all day). Probably lots of new stuff over the weekend.

=/ When I saw the last post was from you, I thought it was an update...

Awesome! Senator Cain ftw!

Isn't Arkansas a Dem Hold, not a pickup?

Beebe became Obama's Veep, the LG was a Republican.

Chris: And we're back with more results! Lets start in Delaware. Well, Senator Chris Coons goes unopposed because there are no Republicans left in Delaware to oppose him! Former Congressman Mike Castle is too old, 75, and his former opponent, Christine O'Donnell has happily accepted a job as a reporter for Fox News. If there is a Republican party in Delaware, it certainly isn't visible to the naked eye.

Rachel: Moving just a state or two over, Virginia Senator Mark Warner handily defeats AG Ken Cuccinelli. Warner is one of the most popular figures in Virginia politics. Former Governor Bob McDonnell decided against running for Senate; most speculate that he'll be gearing up to run for President in 2016 instead.

Chuck: As we look out west, we have some unusually competitive races for otherwise safe seats. When Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe annouced his retirement, Governor Mary Fallin jumped into the race to fill his seat. She was a heavy favorite and defeats Former AG Drew Edmondson.
Well, the race to watch here was for Governor. Congressman Dan Boren gave up his House seat to run for Governor against Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb. Boren had help from his father, University of Oklahoma President David Boren, as well as former Governor Brad Henry, both are extremely popular. Boren will be pulling out a narrow win here as he performed very well in the rural eastern and southern parts of the state. Boren was helped in large part by a 68/30 advantage in his district.

Chris: Texas politics in something else. Tonight is the first election since Ann Richards in 1990 that a Democrat is elected Texas Governor. Congressman Max Sandlin will be defeating tea party Republican Debra Medina. Sandlin defeated Ann Richards' daughter, Cecile, in the primary. A lot of moderate Democrats worried that Cecile Richards, the President of Planned Parenthood would be too liberal to win the general election; they thought that Sandlin would do a better job of reaching out to ordinarily Republican-leaning voters.
Medina surprised the establishment when she upset Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst in the primary. Still, in the general, she had one too many gaffes. Sandlin also had the NRA's endorsement, which helped to neutralize Medina's support with rural voters.

Chuck: Well, Max Sandlin had an unusual level of crossover support. Here's an example: Look at Bowie County (Texarkana). This was Sandlin's homebase. This county only gave President Obama 30%; tonight, it gave Sandlin 56%. So, Democrats had a candidate that could really go toe-to-toe with the Republican in rural, conservative areas of the state.
Now, Governor Rick Perry is leaving office with a poor 40/49 approval rating, that really played in favor of the Democrats.
Finally, the Senate was much less competitive. Attorney Ted Cruz defeated Senator John Cornyn in the primary. Cruz portrayed the Senator as a Beltway insider who lost touch with conservative wing of the GOP. Tea party PACs poured millions into Texas for Cruz; and he squeaked out a 250-vote win over Cornyn in the primary runoff. In the general, Cruz defeats former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez.

Rachel: We also just received word from Kansas. If you remember, we had another tea party primary win here as well. Congressman Tim Huelskamp ousted Senator Pat Roberts by following the model of Ted Cruz in Texas. The general election was competitive as well. Former Governor Mark Parkinson ran for the Democrats; Parkison served as interim Governor after Kathleen Sebelius joined the Obama Cabinet. Parkinson loses by 7 points, coming pretty close by Kanas standards. Still, I he's only 56, so we could see him run again in the future.
The Kansas Democratic party focused almost all its resources on the Senatorial race and never filled to oppose Governor Sam Brownback; he wins with 80% of the vote against third parties.

I like Mark Parkinson a lot :(

Don't think Parkinson would have kept it that close, especially cause the Tea Party doesn't have an incredibly strong presence in Kansas. Certainly not enough to knock out Roberts.

Other than that, GREAT update! :)

'Ya can't win them all! ;)

I actually thought I was being a little too generous to the D's in this update.

Surely you can find some Republican to challenge Coons?

Neat, Senator Herman Cain!

I'll shoot for an update by tonight.

=D

Chris: We have three more states that just reported. First in Rhode Island, both incumbents are reelected. Despite a very strong recruit in former Governor John Carcieri, the GOP couldn't topple Senator Jack Reed. Reed had been reelected twice with over 70% of the vote, so this was always a very steep climb for Republicans.
Then, Governor Lincoln Davis was reelected over former Congressman David Cicilline while 10% of the vote went to third parties. Chafee was lucky that the RGA didn't recruit a candidate here; it spent its resources defending other seats like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.


Rachel: In New Hampshire, Senator Jeanne Shaheen keeps her seats against former Congressman Charlie Bass. She wins by roughly the same margin as she did in 2008. The race to watch here was for Governor. Popular Governor John Lynch stepped aside after a 6th 2-year term. Lynch left office with a 61% approval rating. Still, despite that, Democrat Paul Hodes will be falling just short to Republican Ovide Lamontagne. This is significant because New Hampshire is the GOP's third pickup, after Scott Brown in Massachusetts and Tom Foley in Connecticut.

Chuck: And we have the status quo in the President's home state. Illinois voters have elected Lieutenant Governor Sheila Simon to the Senate seat being vacated by Dick Durbin. Simon ran against former Congressman Joe Walsh; despite his strong support from conservatives, Walsh was dogged by some questions about his personal life throughout the campaign. For Governor, AG Lisa Madigan wins against former Congressman Bobby Schilling. Governor Pat Quinn decided against running for a second full term and endorsed Madigan.

i don't see why Schilling would do so badly. He isn't too hard right to turn off the suburban voters and is populist enough to win a lot of the "Reagan Democrat" voters. The only areas he would probably be crushed in would be the minority areas and most of the jewish liberal areas in the north shore.

Sheila gets Daddy's former seat. Madigan could choice the job she wanted, although gubernatorial is more of a uphill job, as Illinois is an ungovernable state, but I believe that Quinn reformed kinds enough to prevent repeats of Ryan and Blago. I think that in RI, the better thing that GOP could get is a town councillor or a state senator/representative from a swing area by RI standards, but it's a smart decision towards senate election, in order to keep some Chaffee's Republicans from supporting senator Reed, but I think that margin for Chaffee against Cicilline would be somewhat higher, breaking the 50s. Maybe a stronger than-expected libertarian guy.

Great. But I don't see Lincoln Davs running in Rhode Island haha:

Lincoln Chafee....Lincoln Davis didn't carpetbag up to Rhode Island!


As you can tell, Illinois political geography isn't my area of expertise!

Miles, can you show me how to make those county maps? I still can't figure out how to do those!

I pretty much just go into Paint and then put the images on a transparent background. I know the color values for the percentages.

PM me if you'd like me to show you.

On deck for next update: MI, WI, MN and NM.

C'mon!!

update, please

Chris: And now we're back after a long commercial break! We'll go to Wisconsin first. Earlier in the campaign, Governor Scott Walker lost the primary to Senator Ron Johnson. Most Republicans in the establishment feared that Walker, despite his legislative accomplishments would lose; he has a 36% approval rating. So, they drafted Senator Johnson to run for Governor, who would be a fresher face. Johnson has a better 45/37 approval rating and was seen as more electable. Walker lost the primary 51-42. It looks like Johnson will be winning the general election as well, as he was able to pour millions of his own dollars into this race. Walker's 2010 opponent Tom Barrett was able to come closer this time, but Johnson keeps this for the GOP.
Chuck: And its worth noting that in hypothetical polling, Barrett would have beaten Walker 47-40. Of course, Ron Johnson will be appointing an interim Senator to his seat once he takes office as Governor.

In Minnesota, we have Senator Betty McCollum clinging to a two-point lead over Governor Tim Pawlenty. Pawlenty isn't as popular as he once was, as he posts average favorable numbers; he tried to portray McCollum as too liberal for Minnesota, but remember, this was the state that gave us the late Paul Wellstone and Al Franken, two strong progressives in the Senate. The AP does not want to call this race yet. The current Governor, Mark Dayton will be reelected over former Congressman Chip Cravaack. Dayton made a good first impression on voters back in his first two years when he battled the Republican legislator; those Republicans have since lost their majority. Still, Dayton's approvals have usually been at or above 50%, which usually translates into reelection.

Chris: In Michigan, Senator Carl Levin's seat stays with the Democrats. Congressman Hansen Clarke moves up the Senate by defeating tea party Republican Justin Amash. Amash narrowly defeated Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley in the primary; at the last minute, Amash had a campaign event with Congressman Michele Bachmann, which helped to energize conservatives in his favor going into the primary.  Despite representing metro Detroit, Clarke was a great campaigner who was able to compete statewide and used Amash's endorsement from Bachmann against him. Clarke becomes the first Bangladeshi-American to serve in the Senate.
Our good friend Michael Moore was the Democratic nominee for Governor, but he'll be coming up short against Governor Rick Snyder.

Chuck: Thats right. Even though Snyder was never a particularly popular Governor, Moore was seen a bit too polarizing. Snyder, posting 41/48 job approvals, will still be winning by about 7%. Note that almost 5% of the vote went to third parties, which reflects the large percentage of voters who didn't like Snyder, but weren't willing to vote for Moore either.
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Rachel: We have somewhat of an upset in New Mexico. Former Governor Gary Johnson has ousted Senator Tom Udall. Johnson said that he would go to Washington and battle both parties, which strongly resonated with Independent voters; he also had a good amount of crossover support, getting about 20% of Democrats. This was a major upset, as the last poll  had Udall up 49-44.
Governor Martinez was reelected quite comfortably over former Congressman Harry Teague. She is seen as a rising star within the party and some are trying to draft her for President in 2016.

And now lets check in with Chuck for overall maps. How are the Republicans doing?

Chuck: Well Rachel, the Republicans have had some impressive results, like holding Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey and pulling off that upset in New Mexico, but, as far as the Senate, the GOP needs to net at least 4 seats for outright control.
Looking at what we have, they could accomplish that a few ways, but this is the most likely scenario: They'd have to knock of Mary Landrieu the runoff and Pawlenty would have to pull ahead of McCollum in Minnesota. Then, Republicans have to take at least two more between Montana, Colorado, Oregon or Alaska. Basically, the GOP would need top take at least 4 of those 6 races.
As for the Governors, we have a Democrats netting two seats. Republicans picked up a trio of New England statehouses while Democrats flipped five states. As we get more results back, even larger gains are possible for both parties.

I'm only saddened that my beloved Rachel isn't on this update. It's very hard to see WI and MI sending members of Tea Party's gang back into gubernatorial mansions, but it will be fun to see Gary Johnson at Senate...

I'd have voted for Johson :)

Hoeever, I didn't like seeing Michael Morre losing that election. He'd be the best governor ever (not joking)

Rachel did the New Mexico segment! :)

But yeah, Chris and Chuck kinda dominated this update!

So...???

Rachel: Lets go to Montana, where we have one of the closest-watched Senate races in the county. Democrat Denise Junaeu, the state education superintendent, ousted Senator Max Baucus in the Democratic primary. Despite a 40% approval rating, the entrenched Baucus ran again. Juneau didn't necessarily run to Baucus' right, but she frmaed herself as a more populist alternative; she won the primary with 54% to 44% for Baucus.
Tonight, as the polls suggested Juneau is a tight race with Republican Steve Daines, who also ran against Senator Jon Tester in 2012. This seat has been in Democratic hands for 101 years, since 1913; well see if Democrats can continue that streak despite the Republican lean of Montana. Juneau has very strong support among native Americans, but Daines has tried to tie her to Obama, despite her outsider status.

Chuck: Denise Juneau could be one of the next rising stars in the Democratic party if she wins tonight. She'd be the first Native American Senator since Nighthorse Campbell in Colorado. Speaking of Colorado, we have our results in from the Centennial State. Governor John Hickenlooper is very popular and will be reelected in a landslide. Republicans ran tea party candidate Marilyn Musgrave, who served in Congress for three terms. Musgrave was known for her conservative firebrand style and was swept out in the 2008 wave. Governor Hickenlooper approvals were always above 50% and some Republicans insiders privately acknowledge that their party punted on this race  and conceded the nomination to the unelectable Musgrave.
But, the race for Senate here was a bit closer. Senator Mark Udall faced a well-funded challenge but will not end up like his cousin in New Mexico. Congressman Scott Tipton vacated his House seat to challenge Udall; he was mostly a self-funder.

Chris: Now returns are in from Iowa. In the Senate race, Senator Tom Harkin, probably one of the last few real populists left in the Senate, crushes Republican Bob Vander Plaats. Vander Plaats was considered the "Michele Bachmann" of Iowa. Still, his appeal was pretty limited to the conservative western portion of the state. We had two fimiliar faces in the Governor's race. Former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack ran against Governor Terry Branstad. Branstad will be winning a 6th term, but he acknowledged that Vilsack was one of his toughest opponents.

Oh, please, let Denise Junaeu win! She'd be one of the most interesting senators in the History of the USA... while Steve Daines would be the most boring, loser ever.

This update is more equally distributed than previous. The fun is that we have two gubernatorial fights in Colorado...I'd like to see updates of at-large house districts. Will Dave Freudenthal win re-election in WY-AL?

This is great, but you realize there is no way LePage is getting reelected, right?

Started reading this timeline series of yours yesterday and just got through it all. Gotta say, I'm really loving it - particularly Johnson in the Senate. ;)

Keep up the good work, man! I'm glued. :D

Great timeline! Looking forward to the next update :)

I'm aiming for an update tomorrow evening.


Thanks for the comments!

You promissed it...

It's coming!

Its still Friday ;)

Chuck: And now just a few more quick updates. We have Wyoming reporting now. The final retirement of this year was Senator Mike Enzi. He announced just weeks before the filling date. The Republican nominee was Colin Simpson, son of the former Senator Alan Simpson. Simpson emerged victorious from a primary with former Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis, winning by about 10 points. In the general, Simpson had only a handful of third-party opponents who accounted for 10% of the vote. Governor Matt Mead opted to run for a second term in the Governor's mansion; he wins easily in a rematch against Democrat Leslie Peterson. Finally, Congressman Dave Freudenthal cruises to another term in the House, despite Wyoming's overwhelmingly Republican tilt. Freudenthal defeats former State Auditor Rita Meyer by 38 points, as he maintains a tremendous amount of crossover support.
Rachel: And we have a few more close races to report. We can call that Minnesota race for Senator Betty McCollum. She defeats Governor Tim Pawlenty to win a full 6-year term in the Senate. Finally, we only had one statewide race in Nevada. For the Governor's Democrats had a strong recruit in Secretary of State Ross Miller. Still, the incumbent Brian Sandoval remained popular. While they both traded leads in the polls, Sandoval will be coming out ahead tonight.

Frudenthal should've run for the Senate.

This was an abnormally busy week for me...more over the weekend.

Looking forward to it

Coming up.

Its Mardi Gras weekend....this is technically a five-day "weekend" for me! haha

Julio, I really don't forget about this :)

OK, Miles, thanks.

And sorry for being that annoying.

This is an awesome timeline Miles :D

Update tonight, come hell or high water.

Rachel: One of the most unexpectedly fun-to-watch states this year was Nebraska. Despite being solidly red, both its statewide races made headlines this year. Senator Bob Kerrey, a Democrat, sought a return to Capitol Hill this year. While, Kerrey was in a unique position to challenge Senator Mike Johanns, the Republican will still be winning here. While Kerrey had a good amount of crossover appeal, some thought he had lost touch with the state.

The Governors race featured another ex-Senator seeking a comeback. When then-Governor Dave Heinemann was elected to the Senate, Lieutenant Governor Rick Sheehy took his place. Sheehy could never much match the popularity of his predecessor. Enter former Senator Chuck Hagel. Rather than challenging Sheehy in the Republican, Hagel, a moderate Republican ran as an Independent, ultimately earning the endorsement of many state Democrats. Going into this election, Hagel had strong favorables, at 55/26, while Sheehy's job approval rating was 45/36. BY comparison, Heinemann left office with a 62% approval rating. Hagel's 56-42 win over Sheehy tonight is a function of his positive image and his unusual amount of crossover support. From a structural perspective, Nebreska may be the most "Independent" state in the nation; it has a nonpartisan Legislature and now an Independent Governor.

Chris: And over in South Dakota, Senator Tim Johnson is going back to Congress. He's usually squeaked out wins, but in 2008 he won with 62%. Tonight won't be that much of a landslide, but Johnson defeats former Governor Mike Rounds by 7 points. Rounds had mediocre favorable ratings when he left office, 44/42; Johnson's by contrast are 51/41. Incumbents polling over 50% tend not to lose, and tonight, thats the certainly the case here. Despite running in a state that gave Romney 68% in 2012 (thanks to native son John Thune's VP position on the ticket), Johnson knew how to frame himself to win here.

Chuck: In Idaho, Governor Butch Otter did not seek a third term. Republican Congressman Mike Simpson ran against former Congressman Walt Minnick. Even though Minnick ran significantly ahead of most Idaho Democrats, we have word that the Republican will be winning by 8 points.
The Senate race was less noteworthy. Remember Congressman Larry LaRocco? Well, he ran in a rematch agaoinst Senator Jim Risch.  Risch is a popular figure in the state; he holds a 57/28 approval rating. The result tonight is much the same as the 2008 race.

Labeling things instead of just putting photos is a suggestion that I would make for this

I like that.

So, when does the Pacific Coast report in? :)

Towards the end...just like on election night! haha

Here's where we stand:

Ok, the next (and possibly last update of Election Night 2014) will be Wednesday.

I will have House results also. Instead of the House map I drew for Election 2012, I'll be using the real districts. I'll use the national Congressional map (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145506.75) that I worked on with other forum members. I'll just make up my own maps for the three states that aren't done with redistricting yet (FL, NY, NH).

Thanks, Miles ;)

Excellent. I've read through the topic and I think that it's amazing. It's my favorite timeline for sure, and I can't wait to see the conclusion!

Update later tonight.

Rachel: And now we're really scraping the bottom of the barrel; we only have a few more races that still haven't reported. Here are a few of them that we just got in.
In Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley will keep the Democrats' Gubernatorial winning streak alive by defeating Republican Chris Dudley. Dudley has hoped to face incumbent John Kitzhaber in a rematch, but Kiitzhaber decided to forgo a fourth non-consecutive term. Part of that may have been because of his dull approval rating; despite winning narrowly in 2010, Kitzhaber's approval rating sat at 40/48. By contrast, Merkley had a solid 45/32 rating as a Senator. Merkley's popularity really helped Democrats hold the statehouse; hypothetical exit polling showed Duddley actually leading Kitzhaber 44-42.

The bad news for Democrats is that they were left with an open seat to defend. Enter GOP Congressman Greg Walden. While the the national Republican party is unpopular in Oregon, 36% see it favorably to 52% who don't, Walden was able to distance himself from his party. Early polling showed him only slightly trailing the Democratic nominee, David Wu. Then, in the last week of the election, news broke of Wu's erratic behavior at a Halloween party and rumors spread of possibly inappropriate relations that Wu had with some of his staffers, leading voters to question Wu's judgement.
The firm PPP confirmed this. Going into October, before Halloween, Wu led Walden 48-44. In PPP's last poll, released a few days ago, Walden had pulled out to a 50-43 lead. Tonight's results are in line with PPP's projection, as Wu's personal scandal was too much for him to overcome on election day.

Chris: And in Hawaii, we have another Governor elected in 2010 leaving office. This seems to be a bit of a trend. Former Congressman Charles Djou ousts Democrat Neil Abercombie. Despite its deeply blue status, Abercrombie had a 38/51 approval spread. Its not often that incumbents polling at 38% get reelected and that surely seems to be the case tonight.



Chuck: Here we have one of the most anticipated contests of the night. While we don't have the geographical breakdowns yet, we do have most precincts reporting in Alaska. We can say that Senator Mark Begich will be holding off Governor Palin by double digits. This is truly a a remarkable result considering the millions that Palin was able bring in from PACs and outside sources. In fact, that was Begich's central campaign strategy; he tried to portray Palin as out of touch with Alaska, and the millions that Palin received from outside the state surely bolstered Begich's argument.

Also, Begich tried to frame himself as an independent voice for the state as he called Palin's views too extreme and controversial.  Polling showed that this was largely successful. 48% considered Begich to be 'mainstream' while only 34% considered his views extreme. For Palin, these numbers were the opposite. 30% of the electorate consider her 'mainstream' compared to 57% who consider her views too extreme. This was really a pivotal race for both parties and, had the Republicans gone with a less controversial candidate, they could have flipped this seat.

On the Governor's side, Sean Parnell remains popular. He turns back a challenge from Sitka mayor Scott McAdams.

Before I cover the last handful of statewide races, here are House results! Enjoy!

I'd like to see some detailed results from some intersting House races!

Because some on this forum (from my own party) have chosen to personally attack me because of my stances on a few issues, I will be suspending this TL. I am deeply dissapointed that my views and work are not welcomed here. I will resume when I feel that my voice on this forum is respected and valued.


Cheers,
Miles

I'm very saddened because suspension of thread. Miles, you made a hard and good work, mapping counties and districts. Only thing that I have to consider is that you forgot was California gubernatorial election. I hope to you get back on the track to talk about new Congress, off-year elections and 2016 primaries.

Why exactly?

Okay. Problem solved.

Bottom line: I need to take things less personally.



Just some of my conservative Dixiecrat social views were causing controversy.  ;)

Okay, now that everything is back in accord, I'll post an update Wednesday.

It will be really anything I haven't yet covered in 2014; I don't have that much left of the midterms. I believe I only need to post Senate/Governor races in AZ and CA and make an official call in MT.

I'll also probably have a separate post dealing with the runoff between Landrieu and Dardenne in LA (I know, who will win that ?! lol).

Also, feel free to ask about specific House races from the map.

Cheers,
Miles

thanks, Miles

Well, I am glad that you're not discontinuing this timeline as I do enjoy it so. Can't wait for the next update! Especially to see the results for the MT Senate race, that one's a real nail-biter. I always like to see Democrats do well in Montana, so hopefully that will bring some good luck for the Dem in that race. Hah!

Indeed, I am under the impression that Montana Dems are the best Dems, unless their name is Max. I mean, come on - Schweitzer, Bullock, and Tester all out of one state. ;)

Glad you're sticking around, Miles.

EDIT: just saw the last post!  Good to hear!

Rachel: And we're back! We only have a trio of statewide races still out, so lets get to it! In that Montana Senate race, Democrat Denise Juneau will be clinging onto a win over Republican Steve Daines. Juneau ousted entrenched incumbent Max Baucus in the primary. Despite Baucus' key committee positions, this Juneau's primary win was probably good news for Democrats as hypothetical exit polls showed in losing to Daines. Juneau won thanks to the popularity of Congressman Brian Schweitzer, who went to bat for her during the campaign, as well as the sky-high native American turnout she was able to draw.

Chris: And in the Arizona Governor's race to replace the infamous Jan Brewer, Congressman Jeff Flake holds the seat for the Republicans against Democrat Rodney Glassman. While Brewer doesn't leave office as a particularly popular Governor, Arizona is hard state for Democrats to crack in these midterm elections. Finally our last race was in California, where incumbent Jerry Brown will serve his fourth and final term. He turns back a challenge from Republican Congressman David Dreier, who lost his seat during redistricting in 2012. Brown is a popular Governor; the last poll put his approval rating at a healthy 53/37 spread. Tonight's results seem to be a reflection of that.

Great update! Glad that Juneau won!

I'm not sure though if Brown would run again in 2014...he would be 76 years old by then.

Yes... Juneau and Brown, won so I'm a happy camper. I guess my good luck wish for Montana worked after all. (Heh.) Excellent work!

Senator Juneau. I love it.

I love the thought of your AZ race; "Do you really want to have a Flake as governor?"

Brown hinted in the 2010 debate that if he won he would seek reelection

LANDRIEU WINS LA RUNOFF, PRESERVES SENATE BALANCE


Rachel: Welcome back to our last mini-segment of election 2014! After failing to capture a Senate majority last month, Republicans had one last chance to pick-off a Senate seat, that of Mary Landrieu in Louisiana. While this one seat wouldn't flip the chamber for the GOP, it would nonetheless be somewhat of a constellation prize. Despite finishing first in the jungle primary, Landrieu was forced into a runoff after failing to secure more than 50%; this would be the Senator's third runoff.

Chuck: The Republicans had this past month a month to coalesce over their nominee, Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne. However, the jungle primary was particularly brutal on Republicans. Dardenne finished with 30%; the other major Republican, Billy Nungesser, got 26%. The two Republicans have long had a bitter relationship towards each other which was only amplified in this campaign. Nungesser refused to endorse Dardenne in the general election, we have him here quoted as saying "Dardenne is a typical politician masquerading as a conservative. He doesn't understand us down here on the coast. He's too much of a Baton Rouge insider. At least Mary has been able to help us get a fair hearing with the feds.". 'Pretty harsh.

Chris: Well, its hard to beat a Landrieu in Louisiana, and its really hard if there's that kind of infighting among Republicans. If you look at the map, the vast majority of Nungesser's parishes along the coast have actually flipped to Landrieu instead of Dardenne. Looks like Dardenne was able to win in Baton Rouge, but thats where his base is. I think Landrieu pulls this out. Louisiana Democrats have always been the most conservative Democrats and I think Mary Landrieu keeps up that tradition.

Rachel: And we have an official AP call! Mary Landrieu will be going back to the Senate. She defeats Jay Dardenne by about 2 percentage points. I have to give the Landrieu campaign credit here; this is a state where the President has an approval rating off less than 40%. A win like this is pretty impressive.

Chuck: Well, Landrieu was able to win by appealing to constituencies that vote Republican in Presidential races. The Republican infighting here was big; thats why she was able to do so well in the typically Republican coastal parishes. The Landrieu name is of course very popular in the greater New Orelans area. Look at Jefferson parish, which makes up the western New Orleans suburbs. President Obama took only 36% here, but Landrieu was able to win the parish with 52%.

So, with this last race in,these are our national maps:


The 114th Senate will have 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans. It will have 14 freshmen who were elected last month (who's names are highlighted). A quick note about Wisconsin; Senator  Ron Johnson, who is now Governor-elect Johnson, said he will appoint former Governor Tommy Thompson to fill out the remaining 2 years of the Class III Senate term.


After this cycle, the Republicans retain a majority of Governorships. The GOP holds 26 states, Democrats have 22 and 2 states, Rhode Island and Nebraska, have Independent Governors. On our chart, Governors who have highlighted years will be term-limited next cycle.

Chris: So from our entire panel here at MSNBC, we hope you enjoyed our coverage of Election 2014. 'Ya know, the race for President in 2016 basically started after these midterms finished. We hope you will stay with us for what looks like a very exciting Presidential campaign!

And were off to 2016 :)

Not quite yet ;)

We still have a few races in 2015!

MS-GOV: TAYLOR EXTREMELY POPULAR, STRONG FOR REELECTION


PPP- There will probably be a handful of competitive statewide races this year, but the contest for Mississippi Governor will not be one of them. Our February 2015 survey finds Gene Taylor to be one of the most popular Governors in the county. 58% of voters like Taylor's performance while only 29% don't. He leads a quartet of potential Republican challengers by double-digits and maintains considerable crossover support.

Do you approve of Governor Taylor's work in office?
Yes- 58%
No- 29%
Unsure- 13%

If 2011 Republican nominee Tate Reeves ran for a rematch who would you vote for?
Taylor- 55%
Reeves- 36%

If this next election, was between Governor Taylor (D) and former Congressman Chip Pickering (R), who would you vote for?
Taylor- 56%
Pickering- 32%

If this next election, was between Governor Taylor (D) and State House Speaker Phil Gunn (R), who would you vote for?
Taylor- 57%
Gunn- 34%

If this next election, was between Governor Taylor (D) and Congressman Gregg Harper (R), who would you vote for?
Taylor- 52%
Harper- 41%

What party are you registered with?
Democrat- 40%
Republican- 45%
Independent- 15%

Who did you vote for in 2012?
Barack Obama- 41%
Mitt Romney- 52%
Other/Don't remember- 7%

When breaking down his approval along party lines, its easy to see why Taylor is so popular. Among Democrats, he stands at a 79/12 spread; Taylor has taken a centrist approach to governing, but he clearly hasn't antagonized his own party in the process. With Republicans, he is on only slightly negative territory; 35% of Republicans like Taylor whereas 46% don't. And finally, while Independents only made up 15% of this sample, that group likes his work by a 62/25 spread.

Our sample voted for Romney in 2012 by a 52/41 margin, which is close to Romney's actual 55/44 victory in Mississippi. Taylor's crossover support is impressive, especially considering the sharply polarized electorate in Mississippi. In every match-up Taylor holds 27%-32% of Romney voters while consolidating the Obama vote. Despite the conservative bend of Mississippi, Republicans would probably be wiser to focus their resources elsewhere.

Gene Taylor should run for something in Real Life... Mississippi needs some democrats in elected positions, even if they are DINOS.

This is an AWESOME timeline Miles! :)

Who's speculated to run in 2016?

This is a fantastic timeline, btw. Up there with my favourites on the site.

Top 3

Democrats:
O'Malley
Warner
Cuomo

Republicans:
Jindal
Rubio
Christie

Rand Paul / Marco Rubio 2016!

Still hoping for Schweitzer.

I'd put Gary Johnson running under Paulite wing. In Democratic Party, Schweitzer could be a strong candidate, like Sebelius running too. Vice President Beebe can have a good way towards Presidency, although he'd be more useful running to Senate.

Im not sure if he would challenge Rand. But if he were not to run, then he could run.

In this thread, Paul could throw hat in if things go enough bad to assure him re-election in Kentucky. I'd like to see George Clooney in this thread too, challenging Paul or trying to get Boxer's seat.

PPP- Fresh on the heels of out Mississippi poll last week, we have results from the 2 other states with contests this year. Both Louisiana and Kentucky will be open seats this year, as incumbents Bobby Jindal and Steve Beshear are both term-limited.
 
Barack Obama is unpopular in both states. In Louisiana, he stands at a 35/56 spread; he posts slightly better but similar numbers in Kentucky, 37/54. Still, despite the President's job approval, both races have the potential become competitive.

In Louisiana, when asked about a gubernatorial run, Vitter said the he was "probably leaning towards going that route." As a Senator, he has decent approval ratings; 54% like his job to 40% who don't. Its worth noting that Vitter is a very polarizing figure, as  less than 10% of Democrats cross over to vote for him in any of our samples while he has near-universal support from Republicans; this is interesting when compared to his senior Senator Mary Landireu, who was able to attract a great deal of crossover support in her recent reelection.

Also, Vitter's prostitution scandal seems to be far in the rear-view mirror for LA voters; 50% consider him a man of "good values" while 38% don't and 12% are unsure.

The candidate that polls the best for Democrats is, not surprisingly, a Landrieu. We tested 3 Democrats against Vitter: New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, political analyst James Carville and attorney Caroline Fayard. Mayor Landrieu is the only Democrat who comes within 10 points of Vitter.

Do you approve of Governor Bobby Jindal's job as Governor?
Yes- 53%
No- 37%

If this next election was between Senator David Vitter (R) and Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D), who would you vote for?
Vitter- 48%
Landrieu- 43%

If this next election was between Senator David Vitter (R) and James Carville (D), who would you vote for?
Vitter- 51%
Carville- 39%

If this next election was between Senator David Vitter (R) and Caroline Fayard (D), who would you vote for?
Vitter- 50%
Fayard- 38%

What party are you registered with?
Democrat- 45%
Republican- 38%
Independent- 17%

Who did you vote for in 2012?
Barack Obama- 38%
Mitt Romney- 56%
Unsure/forgot- 6%

Actual 2012 result: 58/40 Romney.

---

In Kentucky, Democrat Steve Beshear is very popular, as such, his party is favored to hold the Governor's mansion. We tested 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. For the Democrats, former state Auditor Crit Luallen is considered a wide favorite for the nomination, should she run. If Luallen opts to run for Senate in 2016 instead of Governor, we also tested Congressman Ben Chandler. For the GOP, we polled the only elected statewide Republican, Ag Commissioner James Comer, and we also tried Congressman Brett Guthrie.

Do you approve of Governor Steve Beshear's job as Governor?
Yes- 54%
No- 33%

If this next election was between Crit Luallen (D) and James Comer (R), who would you vote for?
Luallen- 53%
Comer- 39%

If this next election was between Crit Luallen (D) and Brett Guthrie (R), who would you vote for?
Luallen- 51%
Comer- 35%

If this next election was between Ben Chandler (D) and James Comer (R), who would you vote for?
Chandler- 46%
Comer- 42%

If this next election was between Ben Chandler (D) and Brett Guthrie (R), who would you vote for?
Chandler- 47%
Guthrie- 40%

What party are you registered with?
Democrat- 51%
Republican- 37%
Independent- 12%

Who did you vote for in 2012?
Barack Obama- 41%
Mitt Romney- 53%
Unsure/forgot- 6%

Actual 2012 result: 56/43 Romney.

We also looked at the popularity of both of Kentucky's Senators. Freshly elected Democrats Alison Lundergan Grimes is on slightly positive ground at 37/30; she was only sworn in a few months ago, so many voters haven't had enough time to develop an opinion about her. Senator Rand Paul, on the other hand, has a 40/46 approval rating. This would leave him vulnerable in a Presidential year like 2016, especially of either Luallen or Chandler opt to run for Senate.

I'll shoot for an update...Wednesday.

YAAAAY!

Awesome TL!  :)

Where is Clooney politically by the way?

Very liberal. No way he's going to Kentucky.

I know I'm waaaay overdue, but I'll have a huge 2016 Preisdent update tomorrow!

:)

I hope that's true :p

Lol, it will be quite true!

JINDAL, CUOMO FIRST TO ENTER 2016 RACE

Politico- This week, major candidates from both parties declared their intentions to succeed term limited President Barack Obama. With Vice President Beebe not seeking the Presidency, both sides will see competitive primaries. Governors Bobby Jindal and Andrew Cuomo, who are both popular in their respective states, both announced this week that they would seek the Presidency.
In Jindal's speech, the Governor was very critical of the President. "2016 will be our chance to elect a President who's right on the issues. All throughout his eight years, President Obama has ignored the very real solutions that Republicans have proposed. Instead of working with us, Obama and Congressional Democrats have pushed a liberal agenda that is just not right for our country."
"My governing philosophy has always been about choosing liberty and freedom over regulations and bureaucrats. In my view, the strength of America is not found in our government. It is found in the compassionate hearts and enterprising spirit of our citizens. Before I became Governor, much of our state's public programs were broken after a century of corrupt, Democratic rule. However, in Louisiana, Republicans have been the party of real and meaningful change. As Governor, I've worked to lower taxes, reformed our pension and education systems and cleared the way for business to invest in Louisiana. As a result, we have a more responsible government and an 5.7% unemployment rate, under the national average."
"Growing up in India, my father had seen extreme poverty. He would tell me: 'Bobby, Americans can do anything.' I still believe that holds true to this day. That is why, as my term as Governor draws to and end, I will be seeking the Presidency of the United States."

Governor Cuomo was more supportive of the President and vowed to continue the work of President Obama.
"I don't there's any question: President Obama and Vice President Beebe have been a good team for America. As Governor, it was great to know that I was working with a strong President who understood the needs of my state."
"When I took over, New York State is upside down and backwards; high taxes and low performance. The New York State government was at one time a national model. Then, unfortunately, it's a national disgrace. Working across party lines, we put New York on a path back to economic solvency.
Our next President needs to now how to forge bipartisan solutions with a likely divided Congress. Thats exactly what I've done with a split legislature here in New York."

I don't like these candidates :P

I know Jindal, but who the heck is Cuomo?

The governor of New York.

They'll be more!

While I really like this TL, am I the only one that feels it's too kind to the Democrats?

Ones I can think of:

Landrieu's win (mainly because of the Obama years)
The margin of Pryor's win (ditto)
Juneau's win
Grimes's win (see Landrieu, Pryor)
Goodwin's win (ditto)

Also semi-surprised that Lindsey Graham won.

Still a good timeline though. Well done.

Yes, I've often noticed that myself.

I'm very favorable to southern Democrats, since I identify with them.

Miles likes to put moderates into power (Dems in the South and Republicans in the Northeast). I'm perfectly ok with this. :)

I'll update tomorrow...I'm running through a few 2016 scenarios today.

*yay*

Bump!!!

I would have updated this on time, but its exam time and I have quite a bit on my plate. I'm still working on a update!

Take as long as you want, but I expect regular updates come summer ;)

*fires a flare from signal gun so Miles can see it*
Bump!

()

Rachel: Welcome to Election Night 2015! We're so glad you're joining us her on MSNBC for our live coverage of these off-year Gubernatorial elections! Without ado, lets jump into it!

Chris: We only have a few races to cover tonight, but this will still be very telling. The first state where we have returns from is Kentucky. Ever since I've been covering politics, which has been a while, the Republicans could never do well in these Kentucky races. We have 53% of precincts reporting in the Bluegrass State and the Democrat, Crit Luallen is cruising to a win. In fact, the AP is already calling the race for her. The Republicans ran Congressman Geoff Davis. Davis carried his old district across the Ohio border and won in the Republican southern region. Luallen's margins in the eastern coalfields and in the central part of the state gave her a win. With more analysis, we have our own electoral guru Chuck Todd. Chuck, whats your take on this?
Chuck: Well, the outgoing Democratic Governor, Steve Beshear, was very popular. He left office with an almost 65% approval rating, so it isn't very surprising that the Democrats held this seat. The last poll, from SurveyUSA showed Luallen defeating Davis 55-40, that seems pretty accurate as the results roll in. Here's an interesting fact about Kentucky: in the 67 years since 1948, Democrats held the Governorship for 61.

Rachel: Our second state reporting tonight is Mississippi. There, with only 48% of the votes counted, the AP is projecting that Governor Gene Taylor will win reelection by a landslide. Taylor was popular throughout his term as he crafted an image as both a fiscal centrist and a social conservative. That seemed to be a winning combination is Mississippi.
Taylor ran against former Congressman Chip Pickering, who was considered a second-tier opponent in this increasingly Republican state. The RGA spent almost nothing here, as national Republicans realized that they could not overcome Taylor's popularity.

Chuck: Thats right. Going into the election, polls showed that less than 35% of Mississippi voters did not approve of Taylor's job performance; that didn't provide much of a base for Pickering. Another thing to notice is Taylor's old district. Even though he lost by 6 points there in 2010, he's getting 66% in that same area tonight. The voters that know him the best seem to realize that ousting him in 2010 was a mistake.

Chris: Finally, we actually have a competitive race! In Louisiana, we have three well-known faces competing for the Governor's mansion. The Republican establishment got behind Senator David Vitter. After a prostitution scandal in his first term, there appeared to be no place for Vitter in the national GOP leadership, so he went back home to run for Governor. Smart move. However, at the last minute, former Governor Buddy Roemer jumped into the race.
On the other side, Democrats got behind former Clinton campaign adviser James Carville. Carville relied on his folksy and almost comical campaign style to get votes.
Chuck: With 56% of votes counted, a runoff between Vitter and Carville seems likely. Roemer's campaign wasn't able to garner much traction outside his old 4th Congressional district. In the runoff, President Bill Clinton as well has Governor Gene Taylor and Max Sandlin are scheduled to campaign with Carville. Its worth noting that in our exit polls, Governor Jindal, who is now running for President, is leaving office with a 57% approval rating while 39% disapprove.

Rachel: And I hope you'll stay with us for our continuing coverage of these elections!

And no complaining about the photoshop of Chuck Todd's head onto Keith Olbermann's body!! haha

Carville? Interesting, though I would have gone with Mitch Landrieu.

Was the election in Louisiana about the economy, stupid?

Rachel:Well, with nearly all precincts in these states reporting, we can make our final calls. In Kentucky, little has changed since the early results began to roll in. Democrats Crit Luallen holds that seat with 57% percent of the vote.

Chris: And Governor Gene Taylor will be cementing his win. This was even more of a blowout than Kentucky. Mississippi will be returning its incumbent Governor to the statehouse by a 26% margin.

Chuck: But, in Louisiana, the race will head to a runoff. Democrat James Carville will be clinging to a 2% edge over Republican David Vitter, with former Governor Buddy Roemer a distant third. Vitter will face Carville in December.

Good update, Miles. Good luck to Carville in run-off. Any new thing about Presidential contest?

Awesome!

Thanks, Miles :)

2016 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

PART I: THE REPUBLICANS

GOV. BOBBY JINDAL (LA)
()
TEA PARTY FAVORABILITY: 62/29
HOME STATE APPROVAL: 60/37
Endorsements:
-Sen. David Vitter-LA
-Sen. John Boozman-AR
-Gov. Robert Bentley-AL
-Gov. Nikki Haley-SC
-Sen. Tom Coburn-OK
-Gov. Brian Sandoval-NV
-Sen. Bill Haslam-TN
-Ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee-AR
-Ex-Gov. Haley Barbour-MS
-Ex-Sen. Rick Santorum-PA
-The LA Republican House delegation
-Ex-Mayor Pat McCrory-NC

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (FL)
()
TEA PARTY FAVORABILITY: 70/24
HOME STATE APPROVAL: 41/40
-Gov. George Bush-FL
-Sen. Mike Lee-UT
-Gov. Ron Johnson-WI
-Gov. Jeff Flake-AZ
-Sen. Tim Huelskamp-KS
-Rep. Raul Labrador-ID
-Rep. Virginia Foxx-NC
-Rep. Allen West
-Rep. Ileana Ros-Lethenin-FL
-Rep. Jeb Hensarling-TX
-Ex-Mayor Rudi Guiliani-NC
-Ex-AG. Ken Cuccinelli-VA

GOV. SUSANA MARTINEZ (NM)
()
TEA PARTY FAVORABILITY: 50/25
HOME STATE APPROVAL: 51/40
-Sen. Gary Johnson-NM
-Gov. Jan Brewer-AZ
-Gov. Greg Walden-OR
-Ex-Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison-TX
-Rep. Dean Heller-NV
-Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers-WA
-Rep. Shelley Moore Capito-WV
-Rep. Bill Young-FL
-Rep. Mary Bono Mack-CA
-Ex-Rep. Heather Wilson-NM
-Ex-Gov. Linda Lingle-HI

GOV. JON HUNTSMAN (UT)
()
TEA PARTY FAVORABILITY: 39/50
HOME STATE APPROVAL: 62/30
Endorsements:
-Sen. Frank LoBiondo-NJ
-Sen. Susan Collins-ME
-Sen. Lindsay Graham-SC
-Sen. Lisa Murkowski-AK
-Gov. Gary Herbert
-Gov. Scott Brown-MA
-Ex-Gov. George Pataki-NY
-Ex-Sen. Orrin Hatch-UT
-Ex-Sen. Bob Bennett-UT
-Sen. Barbara Bush-TX
-Rep. Frank Wolfe-VA

REP. LOUIE GOHMERT (TX)
()
TEA PARTY FAVORABILITY: 76/20
HOME STATE APPROVAL: 40/25
-Rep. Michelle Bachmann-MN
-Rep. Steve King-IA
-Sen. Herman Cain-GA
-Sen. Ted Cruz-TX
-Rep. Sue Myrick-NC
-Ex-Sen. Jim Inhofe-OK
-Carl Paladino-NY
-Sharron Angle-NV
-Debra Medina-TX
-Mark Levin
-Sean Hannity

---

Polls:
Iowa (PPP)
Jindal- 23%
Rubio- 19%
Huntsman-16%
Martinez- 12%
Gohmert- 11%

Iowa (Rasmussen)
Jindal- 24%
Rubio-22%
Huntsman-15%
Martinez-13%
Gohmert-13%

New Hampshire (PPP)
Hunstman- 27%
Jindal- 23%
Martinez- 17%
Rubio- 15%
Gohmert- 9%

Interesting. If none of the Tea Party favored candidates can break out ahead of the pack, it seems that Huntsman could win ala-Romney; by a divided opposition. A Huntsman v Schweitzer race would probably redraw the map.

Great start, and post the runoff results!

Please, please, please let Gohmert be the nominee! :D

Huntsman/Martinez. Calling it.

...I would vote for that.

Do you two hate the GOP that much?  ;)

Is it too late to have Haley Barbour jump in?

Yes.

Yeah...he's already endorsed Jindal.

can't wait to see Which Democrats are running

It's not like there's much difference anymore

Some good names that I feel that aren't on field: John Hoeven (he would be a good fit for Iowa), Eric Cantor and a pure breeding Paulite.
Martinez would be ahead of Huntsman in Iowa. She isn't like 2012' bunch of crazy people who ran. Rubio wouldn't be ahead of Jindal in SC, unless he gets DeMint's endorsement. Martinez and Rubio would be better fits for Ohio and Michigan.
Huntsman needs to throw big money if he wants to win primary. Early states map is bad for Martinez, because she has shot only to win Nevada.
Primary dates are important, like if delegations will suffer punition or not.

Rand Paul!

Is Christie still a chance?

Yeah, I think the absence of Rand Paul is big. I also think Gary Johnson would run if Rand did not.

But Rand would be much better at energizing the libertarian movement, I contend better than his father.

Those 5 Republicans are pretty much it.

I'll have the Democrats up soon...I'll have 6.

And the LA Gubernatorial? :)

I'll take care of that after I post the Democrats and announce the primary schedule.

For now, going into the runnoff...

PPP polled LA:

Vitter-51%
Carville-44%
Unsure-5%

So, just to be clear (I'm unaware of how the runoff system works), is the runoff when the GE would be scheduled in other states, or is the blanket primary the night of elections in other states, with the runoff scheduled for an amount of time afterwards if needed?

In LA federal elections, the jungle primary is usually in November (like all the other states), but the runoff is usually at some point in December.

Thanks.  I assume this is what CA has done now.  I honestly don't even remember reading about the switch in the news or anything, or when/how/why we switched to it.  Anyways, great work as always man ;)

2016 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

PART II: THE DEMOCRATS

GOV. ANDREW CUOMO (NY)
()
Endorsements:
-NY Democratic House delegation
-Sen. Jack Markell-DE
-Sen. Charlie Crist-FL
-Sen. Kristen Gillibrand-NY
-Sen. Chuck Schumer-NY
-Sen. Jack Reed-RI
-Gov. Byron Dorgan-ND
-Sen. Pat Leahy-VT
-Gov. Jason Altmire-PA
-Rep. Leonard Boswell-IA
-Sen. Richard Blumenthal-CT
-Ex-Gov. Ed Rendell-PA
-Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz-FL

REP. BRAD MILLER (NC)
()
Endorsements:
-Sen. Bernie Sanders-VT
-Sen. Hansen Clarke-MI
-Sen. Maria Cantwell-WA
-Sen. Kay Hagan-NC
-Rep. Alan Grayson-FL
-Gov. Peter Shumlin-VT
-Ex-Rep. Dennis Kucinich-OH
-Rep. Lloyd Doggett-TX
-Rep. Bruce Braley-IA
-Rep. Dave Loebsack-IA
-Rep. Bill Halter-AR
-Rep. Ann McLane Kuster-NH
-Rep. Peter Welch-VT
-Prof. Elizabeth Warren-MA
-Markos Moulitsas (DailyKos)

GOV. DEVAL PATRICK (MA)
()
Endorsements:
-Sen. John Kerry-MA
-Sen. Vicki Kennedy-MA
-Sen. Barbara Mikulski-MD
-Sen. Ben Cardin-MD
-Gov. Jerry Brown
-Ex-Gov. John Lynch-NH
-Gov. Lincoln Chafee-RI
-Ex-Gov. Dan Malloy-CT
-Ex-Gov. Jenny Granholm-MI
-Gov. Anthony Brown-MD
-Gov. Beau Biden-DE
-Rep. Jim Clyburn-SC
-Rep. John Lewis-GA

SEN. MARK UDALL (CO)
()
Endorsements:
-Sen. Tom Harkin-IA
-Sen. Michael Bennet-CO
-Gov. John Hickenlooper-CO
-Ex-Sen. Bob Kerrey-NE
-Sen. John Tester-MT
-Ex-Sen. Max Baucus-MT
-Ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack-IA
-Sen. Kent Conrad-ND
-Ex-Sen. Jeff Bingaman-NM
-Rep. Gabby Giffords-AZ

SEN. MARK WARNER (VA)
()
Endorsements:
-Sen. Tim Kaine-VA
-Gov. Tom Perriello-VA
-Gov. Dustin McDaniel-AR
-Gov. Steve Beshear-KY
-Ex-Gov. Ted Strickland-OH
-Ex-Gov. Jim Hunt-NC
-Gov. Gene Taylor-MS
-Sen. Mary Landrieu-LA
-Ex-Sen. Bill Nelson-FL
-VA Democratic House delegation
-WV Congressional delegation
-Rep. Mark Critz-PA
-Rep. Steny Hoyer-MD

SEN. RON WYDEN (OR)
()
-Gov. Jeff Merkley-OR
-OR Democratic House delegation
-Gov. Chris Gregoire-WA
-Sen. Barbara Boxer-CA
-Ex-Sen. Dianne Feinstein-CA
-Sen. Kamala Harris-CA
-Sen. Claire McCaskill-MO
-Sen. Ben Ray Lujan-NM
-Sen. Russ Feingold-WI
-Sen. Tim Johnson-SD
-Sen. Debbie Stabenow-MI
-Sen. Carl Levin-MI
-Rep. Shelley Berkley-NV

---

Polls:

IA (PPP)
Udall- 21%
Warner- 19%
Cuomo-15%
Miller-15%
Wyden-12%
Patrick- 8%

IA (Rasmussen)
Warner- 22%
Udall- 18%
Cuomo-17%
Miller-14%
Wyden-11%
Patrick- 9%

NH (Mason-Dixon)
Cuomo- 24%
Patrick- 20%
Miller- 17%
Wyden- 13%
Warner- 12%
Udall- 9%

Miles, you made not so good, not so bad update. Miller isn't so representative of progressive movement. A NC bias is bad. A more exciting candidate for progressives would be Tammy Baldwin or maybe Denise Juneau. He'll only derail Warner's train in South. Cuomo's situation is bad, very bad. If he fails to win IA or NH, he'll have to drop-out. Patrick should focus in NH and SC. Wyden isn't a presidential material. I'd put my money in nomination going for Patrick or Udall.

Primary Dates & delegates.

For simplicity's sake, the Republicans will be strictly winner-take-all and the Democrats will be proportional (with a 15% threshold).

()

()

Go Warner and Rubio!

Wyden/Baldwin 2016!

go Warner and Huntsman

Update by tomorrow night.

Great!

This is one of the few timelines I'm actually following closely.

I'd like Miller or Udall to win this.

VITTER WINS LA GOVERNOR RACE

AP- In the runoff election last night to replace the term-limited Governor Bobby Jindal, the Republicans continued their streak of Gubernatorial  victories in the Pelican State. The Republican, Senator David Vitter, defeated Democrat James Carville by about 6 points. All recent polling showed Vitter ahead, but usually had Carville trailing by single-digits, giving Democrats hope for an upset. Also, former President Bill Clinton, for whom Carville served as a top campaign adviser in the 1990s, made several campaign stops for the Democratic candidate. Still, President Obama's approval in the state is hoovering just slightly above 35%, which gave Republicans a boost. Former Governor Buddy Roemer (R), who also ran in the open primary, but failed to make the runoff, did not make an endorsement.

"Carville ran a good campaign" said New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu. "For the past two cycles, Democrats haven't strongly contested the Louisiana Governorship. The Carville campaign certainly worked hard to get out the vote her in New Orleans. I think he made a strong showing at the polls overall, but it just wasn't our night. Look, James ran almost 15 ahead of the President in 2012; I think that shows Democrats can still compete here."

Republican strategists pointed out that while Carville was able to make the contest competitive, Vitter won 5 of the state's 6 Congressional districts. Outside of the majority-minority 2nd, Carville did not carry a single Congressional district, though he did come close in the Shreveport-based 4th.

Moving forward, Vitter has announced that, upon resigning from the Senate, he will appoint Congressman Steve Scalise (R) to fill the vacancy. If he stands for election, which is likely, Scalise will have to defend the Class III seat next November.

This runoff ended an election season that was otherwise favorable towards Democrats; they held the Governor's seat in Kentucky and in Mississippi, incumbent Gene Taylor was reelected in a landslide.

Senate update tonight w/ Iowa poll.

No governor Carville?

Drat.

2016 SENATE SUPER-UPDATE



538.com- With slightly less than a year until election day 2016, control of the next Senate looks like very much a tossup. With this first look at the Senate races, we have found 5 tossup races as well as several other states that only lean slightly towards one of the parties; these are the states that will likely swing the Senate.

TOSSUPS:

AZ: OPEN- MCCAIN (R)
()
Longtime Senator and 2008 Presidential nominee John McCain is retiring from the Senate after 30 years. Through most of his tenure, McCain was very popular in his home state, though his image began to erode after he lost to President Obama; this was seen with his less-than-inspiring 59% last cycle. Democrats have recruited Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords; Giffords has held a slightly GOP-leaning district in southeastern Arizona for nearly 10 years. Other than a close call in 2010, Giffords has won her district comfortably since. The GOP has yet to line up behind a candidate. Congressman Ben Quayle is running as a mainstream Republican while former Congressman J.D Hayworth, who tried to primary McCain last time around, is running as a tea-flavored alternative. While Giffords is no doubt a top-line candidate, AZ has a pervading GOP tilt.

IL: KIRK (R)
()
Then-Congressman Mark Kirk seemed to be in right place at the right time in 2010. A moderate Republican, he drew a very weak Democratic opponent in solidly blue Illinois. While both candidates had faults, Kirk was able to cling to a win. In 2016, he may not be as lucky. Several established Democrats have considered running against him. Most notably, First Lady Michelle Obama has been mentioned. If she decides not to run, Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth has also been mulling a statewide run. Both Obama and Duckworth hold leads over Kirk in the polls. However, until this race begins to take form, we'll call it a tossup.

IA: OPEN- GRASSLEY (R)
()
Veteran statesman Chuck Grassley is stepping down after nearly 4 decades. On the Republican side, the party seems united around Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds. For the Democrats, former Governor Chet Culver, who's father was defeated by Grassley in 1980, is seriously considering a bid. Some top Democrats are also trying to recruit former Governor and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, though the Secretary said he will "probably not" seek any office after his term with the Obama Administration concludes.

NC: BURR (R)
()
Despite serving two terms in the Senate, Richard Burr remains as anonymous as ever to many in North Carolina; based on the latest polls, nearly 35% of voters have no opinion of Burr. Ever since his retirement in 2012, Congressman Heath Shuler, has been rumored to make a statewide run. 2016 is looking like his most likely chance; he is competitive with Burr in the polls and has proven that he can win over normally Republican-leaning voters. Still, while Burr looked vulnerable in 2009, he wound up winning by 12 points in 2010.

WI: OPEN- THOMPSON (R)
()
After then-Senator Ron Johnson was elected Governor in 2014, he appointed former Governor Tommy Thompson to this seat. Thompson (74) announced that he would only hold the seat until the 2016 election. In the meantime, both sides seem to have interesting primaries. On the incumbent side, former State Party Chair Reince Priebus is facing off against Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. Both are considered younger rising stars in the party; Preibus, of course, has much of the state establishment backing him while Kleefisch is running a more grassroots campaign. There is a similar dichotomy on the Democratic side; Rep. Ron Kind is a seasoned Congressman from the western 3rd district while Mahlon Mitchell of Milwaukee, the President of the WI Firefighters union, is running to left. Mahlon and Kind are likewise considered to be rising leaders within the party.  Polls for this open seat are close, with no candidate breaking past the low-40s.

2016 SENATE SUPER-UPDATE CONT'D


SLIGHT DEMOCRATIC:

CO: BENNET (D)
()
Michael Bennet impressively held onto his seat in the Republican wave of 2010, where his party lost 2 Congressional districts in the state. While Bennet had the benefit of a very polarizing opponent, national Democrats looked to his strong 2010 campaign as an outline for Obama's 2012 efforts in the Centennial State. While he will have to run in more friendly atmosphere this time, neither of his two potential opponents make the electoral math particularly easy. Congressman Mike Coffman has been elected statewide before; even though his district was made considerably more Democratic in 2012, he has won it twice since. Congressman Cory Gardner was swept in in the 2010 wave and has made his statewide intentions known. Bennet leads either by about 5 points, and will benefit from a costly GOP primary, but this race will likely tighten going into the final stretch.

MO: BLUNT (R)
()
Since he handily beat SoS Robin Carnahan in 2010, Missourians never seemed to be very found of Blunt's tenure in the Senate. In fact, his approvals in the chamber rarely crossed 40%.  A casualty of redistricting, Russ Carnahan, the brother of the woman he beat in 2010, is challenging Blunt. The few polls taken so far show Blunt to be a slight underdog. Still, going into 2010, Robin Carnhan also posted similar leads. If outgoing Governor Jay Nixon, a popular figure in the state, were to jump in, he would be approaching 50% in the general election. Still, Nixon has said that Governor of Missouri is the "highest office" that he would seek in his life.


SLIGHT REPUBLICAN:

KY: PAUL (R)
()
Ever since they failed to defeat him in a rough year nationally, Kentucky state Democrats have been chopping at the bit to take on the controversial Rand Paul. The Democratic State Auditor, Adam Edelen, a protege of the popular Governor Crit Luallen, is widely seen as the front runner to take on Paul. While the Kentucky Democratic party is stronger than most of its counterparts in the south and Paul has posted less-than inspiring approval numbers, the incumbent Senator is still popular with national tea party groups and has impressive fundraising.

PA: TOOMEY (R)
()
After a clinging to a 51% win in 2010, Republican Pat Toomey finds himself one of the more vulnerable Republicans of this cycle. Last cycle he had the luxury of a relatively conservative off-year electorate; with national Democrats pushing hard in the Keystone State, the DSCC has put Toomey on its top targets list. Both his most likely opponents, Congressman Mark Critz and former Rep. Tim Holden come within 5 points of the incumbent.

LEAN DEMOCRATIC:

AR: LINCOLN (D)
()
Senator Blanche Lincoln was lucky to draw a weak opponent, State Senator Gilbert Baker, in 2010; even still she held on with only a plurality. Though Arkansas has a long history of sending populist and conservative-minded Democrats to the Senate, national factors, such as President Obama's race and presence in the White House, have energized the state GOP. For now, the Republican field could become crowded; Congressmen Rick Crawford and Tom Cotton, former Congressman Tim Crawford and SoS Mark Martin are all considered potential candidates. Lincoln leads that field by about 5 or 6 points. Another question looming is whether outgoing Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter will launch a primary challenge from the left. While such a move could energize progressive Democrats, it could ultimately complicate the party's chances of holding the seat.

CA: OPEN- BOXER (D)
()
Senator Barbara Boxer, who has often drawn the ire of conservatives and the unwavering support of many liberal and green environmental groups, announced that she would not be a candidate for reelection. The Democratic primary (and, no, the only state in this TL that has a jungle primary is Louisiana) is shaping up as a contest between two statewide officials. SoS Debra Bowen was term-limited in 2014 and remains popular. More recently, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom has announced his plans to run. Newsom is a close ally of Senator Kamala Harris, but mush of Boxer's progressive and environmental support could very well go to Bowen. Rather than punting on this election, Republicans think they have a viable candidate in former Lieutenant Governor Abel Maldonaldo. A more liberal Republican, he has been campaigning for this seat since 2014 and has been focused on winning over voters who typically support Democrats.

LEAN REPUBLICAN:

FL: RUBIO (R)
()
Rubio, now running for the GOP Presidential nod, will still have a Senate seat on the ballot this November. While much of Team Rubio's energy is currently focused elsewhere, at home, the Republican benefits from a fluid Democratic bench.  The Democrat who performs the best in the general election is Tampa Congresswoman Cathy Castor, who is still considering entering the race. The DailyKos and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee are starting a movement to draft liberal firebrand Rep. Alan Grayson, of Orlando. Still, while he may prove to be a strong fundraiser, Grayson remains a highly polarizing figure, perhaps too much so to win in swingy Florida. Grayson will more likely stand for reelection in his 60% Obama House seat. Another option may be Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz; like Grayson, she is a strong fundraiser, but lacks the controversy.

IN: OPEN-COATS (R)
()
After making a comeback, the 73 year-old Coats will call it quits after one term. The first Republican to launch a Senate campaign was Congressman Marlin Stutzman of the northeaster n 3rd district. Former Governor Mitch Daniels has expressed some interest in running saying that he's "open to all options" but most Republicans privately admit that he is holding out for a VP selection or a Cabinet appointment, should the GOP take the White House. Former Congressman Joe Donnelly is the only announced Democrat in the race. Despite Donnelly's centrist record, we favor the GOP here.

LA: SCALISE (R)
()
While he hasn't even assumed office yet Rep. Steve Scalise is already in campaign mode for a full term. When he takes over the LA Governorship in a few weeks, Senator David Vitter said that he will appoint Rep. Scalise, of the suburban New Orleans 1st district, to the Senate. While Louisiana was for most of its history a bastion for conservative Democrats, its electorate has grown increasingly hostile towards the national party. While only 46% of voters know enough to offer an opinion of their soon-to-be appointed Senator, we give the GOP a leg up here given that the Democratic Presidential ticket will likely fare poorly there. Two main Democratic names have been bounced around. Former Congressman Chris John, who represented the Cajun 7th district, is said to be mulling a run after 12 years out of elected office. A less likely candidate who could be more competitive is mayor Mitch Landrieu. Unlike Scalise or John, Landrieu has won statewide before.

NV: OPEN- REID (D)
()
After 30 years in the Senate and many hard-fought elections Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is retirng.  Sadly for Democrats, the very popular Republican Brian Sandoval seems to be in the driver's seat here. Sandoval leads both his potential opponents, Rep. Shelley Berkley and SoS Ross Miller by double-digits. On election day, there will be a few factors working in the Democrat's favor, such as help from the national party and local 'union effect', but for now, Sandoval is favored to flip this seat.

OK: OPEN-COBURN (R)
()
In 2004, Senator Tom Coburn took a two-term pledge and is sticking to his word. While the GOP Presidential ticket will likely dominate here, Democrats are hoping to compete in this race. Former Rep. Brad Carson, who held down the ancestrally Democratic CD2 before losing to Coburn in 2004, is running. Former Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins is also considering a bid. Still, both would start out behind Rep. Jim Lankford, an ally of Sen. Mary Fallin, who the GOP has seemed to coalesce around. The sheer redness of the state presents an uphill climb to any Democrat here. Former Governor Brad Henry, who won his final term with 67%, would only lead Lankford  by 4 points in a hypothetical match, though he has decided not to run. Still, its seems that the overarching concept here is that Oklahomans will elect Democrats to state posts, as evidenced by Governor Dan Boren's 2014 win, but are reluctant to send Democrats to federal offices.

OH: PORTMAN (R)
()
Portman, like his colleagues in NC and FL, won by a considerable margin in 2010, yet remains fairly anonymous to voters. The only announced Democrat here is Congresswoman Betty Sutton; Sutton has carried a 51% Romney district for the past 2 cycles, albeit by narrow margins. Still, she will need to raise her statewide name recognition if she wants to make this a race. For now, Portman's name recognition and funding edge justifies a Lean R rating.

STATE-BY-STATE POLLS
()

Iowa poll will be next update.

Looks good, but I have an issue with this:


The GOP really maxed out here in 2010 and Democrats already hold a majority in the Senate. All of the toss ups on your map are GOP held seats and its a Presidential year. Seems like the Democrats would be favored, no? :P

How come Inouye is running again, given he'll be 98 by the end of his term and Hawaii has a Republican governor?

He's already declared he plans to run again.

Great!! It seems that we'll trade MO for NV :( Oh, and it'd be interesting if Davis runs as a GOPer in Alabama. The poll against Bright indicates he leads him by 10. I'd like to know if that changes if Alabama republicans discover Davis is black.. and Bright is conservative and white :p

So has Shelby though......

What happened to Linda Lingle ITTL?

Nothing much...

I made Djou Governor though.

I know (and I appreciate this), but did she even run for senate?

I don't think so.

Akaka was reelected in 2012 against Ed Case, who changed parties. If she ran now I still don't think she'd win; even at age 98, I think Inouye would still be unbeatable.

Looking good.

I would expect Todd Rokita to run for an open Senate seat in Indiana though. He was elected in 2010 from a rather conservative district, after two terms as the Secretary of State. He seems like the type of guy the party would recruit.

Someone's gotta do it.

JINDAL HOLDS TENUOUS LEAD IN IOWA

()
_{Gov. Jindal campaigns with former Texas Gov. Rick Perry; Rep. Steve King hosts a townhall for Rep. Gohmert.}

PPP- With two weeks to go until the Iowa Caucus, out latest poll shows that Louisiana's Bobby Jindal has the edge going into the final stretch. Jindal gets 23% of the vote; 4% more than Senator Marco Rubio. Rubio is closely followed by Governor Jon Huntsman and Congressman Louie Gohmert, who poll at 18% and 17% respectively. Finally, New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez rounds out the list at 14%.

Breaking down the poll's demographics, Jindal posts numbers at the top, or near the top, in most categories; this consistent performance is what he can attribute his overall lead to.

Jindal, Huntsman and Martinez are actually in a three-way tie at the top when it comes to the female vote. However, unfortunately for the latter two, women are only expect to make up, at most, 45% of the caucus vote. With men, the Louisiana Governor is up by a relatively comfortable 6 points; if any other candidate is going to pull and upset, they'll likely have to make significant inroads with males voters.

With actual Republican voters, Jindal's lead remains at 23%, but Rubio receives a slight bump up to 20% and Gohmert nears 20% as well. Independent voters, as expected, skew considerably towards Huntsman, which speaks to his greater electability in a general election. Conversely, less than 10% of Independents chose Gohmert. From an pollster's perspective, the GOP nominating Gohmert would be akin to handing Democrats the Presidency.

Looking along the ideological spectrum centrist voters love Huntsman; his 37% with them is 14% more than the next highest, Martinez. Again, sadly for them, moderate voters should not make up more than 20% of the electorate. Mildly conservative voters seem to the "Goldilocks" group; there numbers are the closest match to the overall toplines.  Finally, Gohmert and Jindal tie among the most conservative voters.

When we asked about three individual issues, we were surprised to find that Jindal did not lead in a single category. Huntsman is in a strong position with voters who emphasize job creation; this could be a result of the ads he has run highlighting the expansion of the Utah economy under his tenure. Jindal is a close second; under his Governorship, Louisiana consistently had a jobless rate under that of the nation as a whole. "Values voters" support Congressman Gohmert; this isn't surprising given that he has campaigned heavily in the socially conservative northwest portion of the state. Respondents who place Obamacare repeal on the top of their list narrowly favor Gohmert with 24%, though Rubio and Jindal are very close behind, at 23% and 21% respectively.

A strong majority of the Iowa GOP is Evangelical; this was likewise reflected in our poll. Evangelical voters are going for Gohmert, Jindal and Rubio, who are all within a point of each other with that demographic. Likewise, with the non-Evangelical group, its a close contest between Huntsman and Martinez.

We actually found that, despite standing in third place, Jon Huntsman is favored to carry the left-leaning 1st Congressional district. The 2nd district looks like its up for grabs and Governor Jindal is a modest favorite in the 3rd. What really stands out here is Gohmert's performance in the 4th. When we surveyed all GOP voters, 67% have a favorable opinion of Congressman Steve King to only 25% who don't. When King threw his weight behind Gohmert, that really boosted the Texas Congressman's chances in the 4th district. If Gohmert can expand his dominance in the 4th district to the neighboring 3rd, we could see an upset.

Finally, just for fun, we asked about the President's birthplace. 62% are either unsure where he was born or believe he was not born in America. With the 38% who do think the President was born in Hawaii, Huntsman leads the field with almost 40%. Not surprisingly, "birthers' flock to Gohmert; he is the only candidate with an outright majority of his supporters saying that the President is definitely not a US citizen.  Finally, voters that are unsure of the President's birthplace support Jindal.

()

Who's Gohmert again?

A very, very conservative congressman from Texas.

He was elected as a result of the Delaymander.

He's best known for making comments like this (http://www.texastribune.org/texas-mexico-border-news/arizona-immigration-law/tx-rep-louie-gohmert-warns-of-terrorist-babies/) and this. (http://www.advocate.com/news/daily-news/2011/10/06/gohmert-conspiracy-theory-obama-jobs-bill-gift-gays)

lol

So in the chocolate box of republican candidates, Gohmert is the chocolate with too many nuts, and a shot of bourbon inside.  Way too strong.

Keep it coming, please!  ;)

Iowa D poll will be out tonight.

UGHH!!! I thought I saved the calculations for the other Iowa poll, but apparently, I didn't. The update will be pushed to tomorrow....sorry guys.

That sucks.  Looking forward to it ;)

Just to keep everyone in suspense for a little while longer, here are the toplines and CD leaders:

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Crosstabs will be out mid-day Sunday morning Monday.

Cool

()
_{Senators Udall and Warner, who are tied at the top of the field, talk with voters while Rep. Brad Miller is running as formidable campaign from the left.}

PPP- For our Democratic poll, we find that Senators Mark Udall and Mark Warner about tied at the top of the field with Congressman Brad Miller in third. An important note here is that neither Governor Cuomo nor Governor Patrick have invested much efforts in Iowa; they both seem to be eyeing the upcoming contests in Hew Hampshire and Florida instead. For now, the Democratic field in Iowa is just as fragmented as that of the GOPs, as no candidate can get even 25% support overall.

Our key finding in this poll is that Miller is establishing himself as a legitimate liberal alternative to the two frontrunners. A Miller upset would be dependent on two things: first, the Congressman is already popular with "very liberal" voters, as he gets 31% with that group; he would have to make inroads with voters who are closer to the middle of the spectrum. Next, turnout among younger voters would have to be relatively high; Miller's message of tighter Wall Street regulation and financial reform is resonating well with college students and younger, educated voters.

Warner's strength is derived from his popularity with centrist voters and older citizens. Among those voters who value job creation as their first priority, Warner is an easy favorite. Likewise, Independent voters hold him in the highest esteem. These two things should play well for his prospects in a general election.

Finally, like Governor Jindal in our GOP poll, Udall seems to be the best "all around" performer; he is at or near the top among most demographics that we surveyed for. It looks like he has the more rural 3rd and 4th districts locked down. To solidify his lead, Udall would need to focus more closely on the eastern duo of districts in these last few weeks.

()

Continue, please!

I think, for simplicity's sake, I'll just skip right to election night in Iowa.

I'll work on the numbers/maps tonight and start tomorrow with results.

Cool :)

Strickland lost to John Kasich in 2010.

he made changes to some elections in 2010 in his Tl

Yeah he gave Lincoln and Strickland wins instead of their real opponents.

And their names are Don Carcieri and Lincoln Chafee.  You called them by the wrong names.

Yes, I saved Blanche Lincoln and Ted Strickland by a few hundred votes each.

I think I referred to Lincoln Chafee as Lincoln Davis; I think Julio pointed that out a few months ago.

I'll have to update tomorrow...I'm at the beach and I have very erratic WiFi; I didn't accomplish as much as I planned to today.

Take your time ;)

JINDAL, WARNER JUMP OUT TO EARLY LEAD IN IOWA; HUNTSMAN AND MILLER PERFORM SURPRISINGLY WELL

AP: 39% of precincts reporting:

Interesting to see how well Huntsman does in Iowa considering how well he did otl.  Looking Forward to more ;)

This.

Miller vs. Huntsman would be the best campaign ever.

Who's Miller?  Is he a favorite of yours?

A progressive democrat congressman from NC, who will not run for reelection this year because of redistricting...

Yes; here's a bit more background on Miller:

As Julio alluded to, redistricting played a big part in starting (and ending) his Congressional career. Back in 2000, he was the NC State Senator who led the redistricting Committee. Back then, NC gained one seat in the census; he drew the new 13th district (http://assets.realclearpolitics.com/images/districts/NC13.gif) for himself. He won 5 terms in Congress and was known for his role as a strong Keynesian voice on the Financial Services Committee; he's also a blogger at the DailyKos.
 
Well, when the Republicans won a majority the NC Legislature in 2010, they controlled redistricting. They turned Miller's 13th from a 59/40 Obama district to a 54/45 McCain one (http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg807/scaled.php?server=807&filename=nc13e.jpg&res=landing). His other option was to run against Rep. Dave Price, another Democrat, in the redrawn 4th; at 72% Obama, the new 4th was drawn as a Democratic vote sink (http://at 72% Obama, the new 4th was drawn as a Democratic vote sink.). Either way, he'd be the underdog, so he just retired. I hear Price may be retiring in a few cycles, so a Miller comeback may be in the cards.

I'm friends with him on my Facebook account (as nerdy as that sounds); we've had a few good conversations about politics.

Interesting.  Thanks for the info ;).

So you're friends with the Congressman on Facebook?  That's pretty cool, I never knew public figures had the time/will to speak with people one-on-one.  I might have to check if Ron Paul's got a Facebook account ;)

65% of precincts reporting:

Been far too lazy to follow this. Looks interesting though.

I'll update this later on July 4th.

For now, a shout-out to one of our newer poster, kenyanobama.

I read this post and I thought of my TL:

Its crazy, the Democratic party is often considered the party for minorities, yet half of the GOP candidates are minority race, and one is female. In comparison, the Democrats are running 6 men, only one being a minority (and probably towards the bottom of the pack!).

I thought of that too after I picked the candidates. haha

My Republicans are definitely much more diverse.

Moderate Dems and Moderate Repubs are much more frequent in Miles's TLs. ;)

His wife does. I tried to add her, but her friend requests were maxed out. I have found Barry Goldwater Jr, Tom Tancredo, and most of the Bush families personal facebooks.

Im surprised that they are so open with their personal stuff.

Who would be more of a fiscal conservative, Cuomo or Warner?  Also, does anyone know Cuomo's positions on gun control?

JINDAL HOLDS ON DESPITE GOHMERT SURGE; WARNER CLINGS TO VICTORY OVER UDALL, MILLER

100% of precincts reporting

Cool

I'm going to say Cuomo.

I don't think Cuomo has a particularly gun-friendly record.  (http://www.ammoland.com/2011/09/22/nys-cuomo-pushing-gun-control-prison-closures/#axzz1ziQRNxni)

Great TL! Although I was hoping for Wyden to do better even if i don't agree with him on much......

Well, he may do better in the next contests :)

I do take the comments from my readers into consideration when I plan out the results! :)

Please let Gohmert win the Republican nomination! :D

IMO Miller should've ran for the Senate.

I'm sad now.

Update tonight.

Looking ahead to the next contests:

()

In NH, a victory for Huntsman is very likely, although I believe that Martinez is underpolling. Wyden should drop out. His voters would go Patrick and Miller.
In South Carolina, I believe that Patrick is very underpolling and he's leading, unless Brad Miller gets to peform very well with African American democratics. Gohmert is in win-or-die contest in SC. M
A early state absent is Nevada. Maybe, Martinez's hopes are there.

CUOMO, HUNTSMAN TAKE NEW HAMPSHIRE

In the New Hampshire primary tonight Governors Huntsman and Cuomo have won the contests for their respective parties.

On the Democratic side, this evolved into something of a two-way race between Cuomo and Patrick, however the Miller campaign stepped up campaigning the last few days. Warner, Wyden, Udall largely forewent this contest in favor of campaigning in upcoming states. It seems that Cuomo has Miller to thank for his victory. Just weeks ago, Cuomo and Patrick were running basically even; since then, progressive groups came in on behalf of Miller. As a result, the North Carolina Congressman likely took away a noticeable portion of Patrick's vote.

The Huntsman campaign invested heavily here, and the results tonight reflect those efforts. The real surprise for Republicans was the second-place slot; Governor Martinez slipped past Governor Jindal. Martinez was helped by the relatively large number of Independent voters who turned out tonight. Neither Senator Rubio nor Congressman Gohmert made serious efforts here.

Going forward, South Carolina could be the most competitive race yet. Southerners Jindal and Rubio are running neck-and-neck for the GOP vote; the 6 SC House Republicans, all tea party-aligned, have backed Gohmert while the Governor Nikki Haley has endorsed Jindal. For the Democrats, Patrick is banking on the state's large black electorate while Warner is touting his Virginia background.

Cool.

Wyden should drop out as he has no path towards nomination.

Martinez!!!

And...?

Sorry...lol

NC mapping has been taking up most of my time ;)

I was going to do SC and FL tonight for this.

Any chance you could date your timeline posts? Great TL btw. Big fan.

I dated my posts when I first started doing this, but I've slipped out of that since. But, I can start dating them again :)

For the primaries, this is the schedule I'm going by:

()

Looking forward to it. Especially the 2016 election. You plan on going that far?

Of course :)

GOHMERT SOARS IN SC; WARNER PULLS OUT NARROW WIN

1/25/16

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RUBIO (BASICALLY) UNOPPOSED AT HOME IN FL; CUOMO DOMINATES D FIELD

2/2/16

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And yes, its purely by coincidence that Warner and Cuomo are exactly one delegate apart!

Good, though I think you're slightly insulting the GOP's intelligence by putting Gohmert this well. I just don't see it as even a remote possibility. ;)

Haha. Well, most of my Republican friends from SC are tea party supporters...I know their not necessarily representative of the entire SC Republican electorate, but that's what I see, 'ya know?

Wyden should drop out. He has no delegates and no favorable primaries coming up.

Illinois looks like it will be Patrick's reckoning, and his opportunity to turn the 2-man race into a 3-man one.

And Tmthforu: Just look at who won Iowa and who won South Carolina this year. ;)

If Wyden doesn't win Nevada in like a 50-everyone else ratio, he's done momentum-wise.

Keep it coming.

Great!! Although I have to swith my support from Miller to Patrick. Cuomo and Warner may be the most electable, but they're not liberal enough :P.


Santorum, Angle, Miller, Buck, Mourdock (over Lugar), McMahon, Paladino, Inhofe...
Not saying republicans are dumb. Democrats have nominated some radicals occasionally, too. But the electorate is not intelligent, generally speaking.

Tom Coburn would be a better candidate in GOP primaries than Gohmert, although his friendship to Obama can play against him.

Coburn also endorsed Manchin and is good friends with Chuck Schumer ;)

Oh darn! I just realized that I grouped ME with about 3 or 4 other states on my primary schedule. I'll have those out next...oh well.

oh sh**t Wyden, get out before its too late son!

Wyden and Udall should drop out, they have no path to victory. Warners chances also seem to be waning.

Wyden is the best candidate here, but he should drop out now.

Go Huntsman :-D

Also, Susana Martinez is done.

Not sure how Martinez lost Nevada, unfortunate.

warner still has a chance the south, and udall lost momentum but he needs to win one state to stay relevant ans wyden well hes out pretty much, huntsman is on a roll so far, and martinez is well Nevada was her last chance and she blew it, rubio well he needs to win a state other then Florida   

That can be said in both parties.  But enough PA Republicans voted for Casey in 06 to throw Santorum out on his sorry ass.  McMahon I like.  Murdock can win.  I can't really comment on Inhofe and Paladino cuz I don't know them ;).  And just because some of our politicians are social conservative neocon loons doesn't mean the GOP or even all of the TEA Party is too.  Look at our former leader: Ron Paul ;) (till Sarah stole the crown that rightfully belonged to him >:O)

Likely update Sunday night w/ IL primary and MN caucus.

Great! Looking forward to it.

You think it's time for some people to drop out?

Wait for it...;)

That was gonna be my next post. But I guess by now, its pretty obvious who's on track to drop out.

Mark Warner and/or Andrew Cuomo, maybe?? :P

im rooting for Huntsman and Cuomo: battle of the moderates!

I think Wyden drops out in favor of Miller, and Oatrick drops out for Cuomo. Udall would've dropped out of he hadn't won Minnesota. Go Cuomo!

Jindal / Rubio 16, and go Cuomo for Dems ;)

WYDEN DROPS OUT, ENDORSES UDALL; RUBIO ENDS WH BID, BACKS JINDAL


Politico- The race for the White House will go on after this week without two competitors. Senators Ron Wyden and Marco Rubio, neither of whom gained much traction, will be heading back to the Senate rather than continuing to pursue national ambitions.

In a press conference today, Wyden thanked his staffers and supporters. "I enjoyed working with everyone on this campaign team and taking our message out to the voters. Still, on election days, the numbers just weren't working in our favor. In the end, I will be going back to Congress to serve the people of Oregon." Wyden then said that he supports fellow Senator Mark Udall. "Mark and I have done some great work together in the Senate. Serving on the Energy and Natural Committe with him, we have worked to promote sustainable solutions for our country's future. On fiscal issues, I am confident that Mark's common-sense approach will carry him into the White House."

Rubio, initially considered the favorite of the tea party, saw his support dwindle as Congressman Louie Gohmert was better able to mobilize far-right voters. Other than winning his home state of Florida, a state which was largely uncontested, Rubio struggled to keep up with his competitors' fundraising. In his statement, he threw his support behind Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. "As the son of immigrants myself, I identify firsthand with the Governor's inspiring life story. Likewise, Governor Jindal and I have a similar vision for this country. As a one of our neighbors along the Gulf Coast region, I have closely watched the work he has done. Before Governor Jindal's tenure, the state of Louisiana was facing a fiscal crises due to decades of corrupt Democratic rule; using Republican principles, he has made Louisiana one of the most business-friendly states in the nation while consistently keeping unemployment low. These conservative reforms are what I work towards every day in the Senate and this can be a model for the country."

Oh God then please let Jindal win!  No Gohmert!

Keep it coming, this is great ;)

Tonight will be NE, WY, AZ and MI.

The hack in me wants Gohmert to win, but HUntsman or Jindal as the nominee would make for a much more competitive race. :)

I hope it's Udall vs. Gohmert. I'm tired of close elections, I'd love to see a emocrat carrying Texas hahaha

Tonight will be WA and MA. I was supposed to include MA with the last batch of states, but I must have overlooked it; I'll just squeeze it in here instead.

These will be the last two states before Super Tuesday.

Not a fan of that Michigan county map. :P

Took me a while to figure out what that was.

Well, I'm using the shape files from DRA. I just like how they look...'something of a personal touch on my part!

Udmentum!

Udall/Patrick or Patrick/Udall 2016 (as Miller isn't a factor anymore).

I'm hoping for Cuomo/Patrick, personally.

It's looking like a Warner/Huntsman race.

Cuomo/Udall!

MARTINEZ EXITS BEFORE SUPER TUESDAY, BACKS HUNTSMAN


With just days until Super Tuesday, New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez has suspended her campaign. Citing her disappointing numbers so far, the Governor said that she felt it was "her time" to step aside. In her speech, she threw her support behind Huntsman. "In New Mexico, I have to be a leader that everyone can get behind; not just Republicans, but Democrats and Independents as well. In my capacity as Governor, I try to do that as much as I can every day. Governor Huntsman and I share that basic approach. I think Jon will be a President that can truly unite this country while still advancing conservative principles. That's why, today, I will be supporting my friend and neighbor, Governor Huntsman as he goes into these crucial Super Tuesday contests and beyond into the General Election."

With Martinez's exit, Huntsman has the entire moderate wing of the GOP field to himself; this could give him a structural advantage as he squares off against two considerably more conservative candidates. Martinez's endorsement will also help Huntsman make inroads with Hispanic Republicans in states like Colorado, Texas and California.

Could we get a primary map update? It appears as though Huntsman is the frontrunner now.

Yeah, I was just going to do a cumulative map before Super Tuesday. 'Should be up by tonight!

I'd like to see Udall winning the nomination and going against Jindal. A Democratic Mormon vs. Indian-American Republican.

That would be entertaining but its hard to root against the home team..

Imagine a Udall-Huntsman race! Haha

Seriously, if it were Udall vs Jindal, how close would Udall come in Utah?

Well, Udall himself isn't actually Mormon, though his father and cousin are.

Maybe he'd still hold Jindal under 60%...

Ok, I'm pretty sure this is accurate:

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Delegates:
()

'Too bad for Jindal that the R primary is winner-take-all; he was only a point or so behind Huntsman in MI, WA and IL.

'Lucky for Patrick he was from a state with 118 delegates and won them all...that really put him back in the game in the delegate tally.

Miller is fading in a very serious way, and damn Huntsman is just killing it.

I'll probably have the next update ready by Friday night...I have quite a few states.

A few states to start off...

HUNTSMAN CRUISES IN VT; PROGRESSIVE DEMS CARRY MILLER IN VT PRIMARY

NY GOES TO HUNTSMAN, THOUGH JINDAL PERFORMS BETTER THAN EXPECTED; CUOMO DOMINATES  AT HOME

IN GA, JINDAL TURNS BACK GOHMERT EFFORTS; PATRICK SHOCKS WARNER WITH UPSET AS A COALITION OF URBAN AND BLACK DEMOCRATS OUTWEIGH DIXIECRATS

So Gohmert won't be the nominee :(

Dark gray states haven't reported yet:

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Nooooo! Gohmert has lost Texas :( ... GOPers will have a no-that-bad candidate.
Gohmert loss is compensated by Miller and Udall momentum, which is damaging Cuomo (but helping Warner...).

Oh, please, let Warner NOT win the nomination! Maybe Udal has some momentum now, after carrying 3 states (unlikely, as they were mormon states, so he was safe there).

Gohmert has only won in MO. He'd better drop out now and support Jindal. Huntsman would win the GE easily :(

MILLER SUSPENDS CAMPAIGN; NO ENDORSEMENT

()

Today, after the dust settled in the crucial Super Tuesday contests, former Congressman Brad Miller announced that he would effectively be ending his campaign. With backing from the "Daily Kos" wing of the party, the main issues Miller ran on were regulatory reform, higher taxes on the wealthy and increased access to and funding for higher education. As such, college-age students and younger voters made up the core of his national base. His backing from progressives help him win four states: Minnesota, Maine, and most recently, North Dakota and Vermont. Despite wins in these relatively small states, a feasible path to nomination seemed elusive to the North Carolina Congressman.

"It with great honor and gratitude that, today, I announce that I will be no longer campaigning for the Democratic nomination for President. I am extremely thankful to the many supports, staffers and contributors we've had over the course of this past year, and to the entire Netroots community, who's support I could always count on....

Our county will face a serious choice this November between candidates with very real differences. On the Republican side, two of the three remaining candidates are as far-right as they come; their idea of prosperity is ensuring that the rich even richer and rolling back financial regulations while leaving our schools and taxpayers with the bill. The third, despite his claims of moderation, would still take us back to the days of  George W. Bush.

 I am confident that, as a party, our nominee will stand for change that makes a difference. I can say this because our campaign has been all over the country bringing attention to the issues that the progressive movement cares about, like economic fairness and or the role of money in politics. Whether I am running or not, these issues will define this campaign "

More please!  ;)

Keep it coming! :)

Yay!!

Looking ahead to polling for the next 3 states:

Louisiana (R)
Jindal- 67%
Gohmert- 16%
Huntsman- 8%

Louisiana (D)
Patrick- 35%
Warner- 30%
Cuomo- 27%
Udall- 5%

Mississippi (R)
Jindal- 54%
Gohmert- 26%
Huntsman- 14%

Mississippi (D)
Warner- 39%
Patrick- 35%
Cuomo- 18%
Udall- 6%

West Virginia (R)
Gohmert- 50%
Jindal- 34%
Huntsman- 12%

West Vrigina (D)
Warner- 57%
Udall- 16%
Cuomo- 14%
Patrick- 8%

Why is Patrick still in this? Keep it up.

I don't know, he'd better drop out now and support Udall. Udall/Patrick 2016!!

Michigan is a swing state.  Keep going, though.  And besides, Snyder's probably not running for reelection.  I'm guessing it'll be Bill Schuette vs. Andy Dillon, with Schuette winning.

I'm thinking Gretchen Whitmer will run in 2014.

Udall v Jindal could shake-up the west, but Huntsman would neutralize any ground that Udall would make among Mormons.

Oh, and one more thing: Michael Moore for Governor?  Hand me the barf bag, I think I'm gonna do the Technicolor yawn.  In the words of Hubert Humphrey, this would be funny if it weren't so serious.  I'm glad he lost.  Bill Schuette for OTL Governor 2014!

I laughed my ass off there.  Who's Bill Schuette?

He's the Michigan Attorney General.  A Republican and hopefully our next governor once Snyder retires in 2014.

Snyder is retiring?  I thought he only was elected in 2010...

He's said that he won't go for a second term if he does what he wants to now.

That's actually really admirable.  I've just gained a lot of respect for him.

!!

What are the nation wide delegates total atm?

Damn Warner.

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REPUBLICANS
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DEMOCRATS
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Kinda odd to see Cuomo leading despite only carrying 4 states. He did have a lot of good 2nd and 3rd place finishes, where the proportional allocation system worked in his favor. NY was also a huge cushion for him, as it was worth almost 300 delegates.

I wish Patrick would drop out. He's splitting the northeastern vote.

Rubio dropped out in favor of Jindal right?  If he hasn't, he'd better if he wants a political career of his own

I wish Cuomo would. Patrick is the candidate I like the most with realistic chances of being nominated, as Udall has lost all the momentum he once had.

Who did you like initially?

Miller.

If I could chose the President myself, he'd surely be on my short list.

if i could choose for he dem side it would be Udall &Warner

for real!

Sorry, I'm nearing the end of a really busy stretch here. Should be updated by mid-week.

When I'm busy, this is kinda always the first thing I triage :P

Keep up the good work!

Miles, you should update this more frequently if you want us not to forget the story... Because I can't remember if Patrick dropped out. I have to check that.

I honestly couldn't even remember some of this stuff as of late! lol

Update over the weekend. 'Gonna be big!

Go Jindal! Great story so far :)

Ok, just so I can start posting states, Patrick has indeed dropped out. No endorsement yet.

So how about some results? ;)

Getting to that...

A few housekeeping notes:

- I'm experimenting with a slightly altered format. While I'm phasing out the pics of the candidates, this format will allow me to generate and post the maps/results quicker.

- I couldn't load the shapefile for MD, for some strange reason, so I substituted it with AL for this post.

- I'll go review the Senate races to see what primaries there are worth noting.

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WITH WALKER HELP, JINDAL TAKES WI; UDALL INVESTS HEAVILY FOR BIG NIGHT IN WI, BUT WILL IT BE HIS LAST WIN?
CT NOT COMPETITIVE; HUNTSMAN, CUOMO WIN EASILY
DE GOP LEARNS FROM PAST MISTAKES, PICKS THE MOST ELECTABLE CANDIDATE; WARNER SQUEAKS OUT AHEAD OF CUOMO

JINDAL TAKES NEIGHBOR AL COMFORTABLY, DESPITE THREAT FROM GOHMERT; AL UNCONTESTED BY DEMS

Udall should go to do a Western campaign and try to heir Patrick's voters in Northeast. He should make a very big push to win California in a landslide to get momentum into Convention. Pennsylvania should be a battleground between Cuomo and Warner.

GOHMERT TO REPORTEDLY DROP BID IF HE LOSES TN

()

Politico- According to several reports from those within the RNC, Tea Party Republican Presidential candidate Louie Gohmert will likely drop out of the race, should he lose Tennessee. It clear any path Gohmert would have to the nomination would run through the Volunteer State.

The Gohmert campaign is citing their dominating performance in West Virginia, where the Republican electorate is similar to that of TN. However, one asset Jindal has is the popular Senator Bill Haslam. Haslam is helping Jindal mobilize voters in growing suburban areas such as Rutherford County and parts of Shelby County. The House delegation is overall split in terms of support. The 6 Congressional Republicans from TN have split even Roe, Duncan and Black have backed Jindal while Fleischmann, Blackburn and Fincher have endorsed Gohmert.

On the Democratic side, Warner is expected to win in a landslide. Governor Bresdesen has endorsed Warner as have Senator Gordon and Reps. Cohen, Cooper and Stewart.

In the Connecticut and Maryland primaries, Governors Huntsman and Cuomo are expected to win their respective primaries.

Polling:

TN (PPP)

Jindal- 44%
Gohmert- 40%
Huntsman- 9%

TN (Rasmussen)

Jindal- 43%
Gohmert- 42%
Huntsman-11%

You can do it, Louie

NOOOO!

Yay. Been reading up on one of my favorite timelines. Louie Gohmert vs. Bobby Jindal. Yikes. It's like Aliens vs. Predator. Whoever wins... we lose.

Can't wait to see how the primaries turn out.

Alabama is not "Jindal's neighbor"...there's this thing in the way called Mississippi?

I still consider the guy who lives two doors down from me to be my "neighbor."

I don't think Blackburn would endorse Gohmert, but hey, minor details. ;)

GOHMERT COMES UP SHORT IN TN, EFFECTIVELY EXITS RACE


Tonight, Republicans came one step closer to choosing a Presidential nominee. Behind in delegates, any path to the nomination for tea party firebrand Louie Gohmert would have run through Tennessee. In fact, a top Gohmert spokesman announced recently that the candidate's presence in the primary hinged on the Tennessee GOP electorate.

With 96% of precincts reporting, Governor Jindal is clinging to nearly a 5-point lead and the AP has called the race in teh Governor's favor. Governor Jon Huntsman, despite leading in overall delegates, was largely a non-factor tonight.

Gohmert's margins in rural western and middle TN helped to cancel out Jindal's support in the Nashville and Memphis areas. However, Jindal's surprisingly strong performance in the east made up the bulk of his statewide margin; Senator Bill Haslam, hailing from Knoxville, was an ardent Jindal surrogate throughout the campaign.

On the Democratic side, only Warner made campaign stops in TN; it was a forgone conclusion that the Virginia Governor would win in a landslide.

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Looking ahead:

PA (PPP)

Jindal- 44%
Huntsman- 39%

Warner- 40%
Udall- 36%
Cuomo- 21%

NJ (Rasmussen)

Huntsman- 43%
Jindal- 42%

Cuomo- 37%
Warner- 31%
Udall- 26%

RI (PPP)

Huntsman- 51%
Jindal- 39%

Udall- 42%
Cuomo- 34%
Warner- 21%

can you do a map of the current primaries in your next update?

So Jindal vs. Warner it is?

Also, I'm rather surprised that an Italian Catholic Northeasterner isn't ahead in RI, especially since he just carried CT so handily. :P

Obama won CT and Hillary won RI.

Some statistics to establish context:

March 2016

National Unemployment Rate- 6.2%

_{Rasmussen survey of 1000 registered voters.}

How would you describe your view of the President?
Favorable- 57%
Unfavorable- 37%
Neutral- 6%

How would you rate the President's job performance?
Approve- 49%
Disapprove- 43%
Unsure/Neutral- 8%

How would you rate the job performances of the following elected figures:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
Approve- 35%
Disapprove- 47%
Unsure- 18%

Senate Minority Leader John Thune
Approve- 38%
Disapprove- 40%
Unsure- 22%

House Speaker John Boehner
Approve- 38%
Disapprove- 52%
Unsure- 10%

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi
Approve- 39%
Disapprove- 51%
Unsure- 10%

Generally speaking, if Congressional elections were today, which party's candidate would you vote for?
Democratic- 44%
Republican- 41%
Unsure- 15%

How would you describe the state of the economy?
Getting better- 40%
Getting worse- 26%
Staying the same- 34%

How would you rate your personal financial situation?
Excellent- 18%
Good- 34%
Fair- 32%
Poor- 16%

I thought you wouldn't update anymore.

Jindal/Gohmert 2016 !! (That means Udall can win 'a la Reagan')!

bump this is was interesting...

That's right.

Eh, sorry guys. I think I'm out of the TL business for now. It just isn't what it used to be for me for some reason. I appreciate the enthusiasm though.

Maybe I'll get back into it down the road...

I think it just might be that time.

Hopefully an update this weekend.

Polling aggregates:

PA

Jindal- 43%
Huntsman- 40%

Warner- 41%
Cuomo- 33%
Udall- 19%

NJ

Huntsman- 48%
Jindal- 39%

Cuomo- 45%
Warner- 25%
Udall- 20%

RI

Huntsman- 56%
Jindal- 34%

Cuomo- 40%
Udall- 30%
Warner- 17%

CA

Huntsman- 50%
Jindal- 39%

Cuomo- 39%
Udall- 34%
Warner- 22%

NM

Huntsman- 45%
Jindal- 40%

Udall- 51%
Cuomo- 21%
Warner- 16%

I need to do an update on the Senate, so look for that to be out soon, too.

I think it just (really) might be that time.

Yay!

Ya know back in 2013 I might of supported Jindal, but now I'm supporting Huntsman :P