Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: Simfan34 on January 02, 2012, 11:30:56 PM



Title: Who will win Lebanon in 2012?
Post by: Simfan34 on January 02, 2012, 11:30:56 PM
Today is Lebanon's first-in-the-nation primary race.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2012/Jan-03/158621-the-republicans-best-bet-may-not-be-whom-you-expect.ashx#axzz1iMldFaWt

This marks his second overseas endorsement.


Title: Re: Random Lebanese Newspaper endorses Huntsman
Post by: Psychic Octopus on January 02, 2012, 11:31:43 PM
GAME CHANGER


Title: Re: Random Lebanese Newspaper endorses Huntsman
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 02, 2012, 11:33:33 PM
What time do the polls close in Lebanon tomorrow night?


Title: Re: Random Lebanese Newspaper endorses Huntsman
Post by: Free Palestine on January 03, 2012, 12:09:51 AM
Maybe if an Israeli newspaper endorsed them.  They are the 51st state afterall.


Title: Re: Random Lebanese Newspaper endorses Huntsman
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 03, 2012, 12:12:40 AM
Unfortunately only Ron Paul was able to make it on to the ballot in Lebanon.


Title: Re: Random Lebanese Newspaper endorses Huntsman
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on January 03, 2012, 12:17:58 AM
Lebanon's a caucus, right?


Title: Re: Random Lebanese Newspaper endorses Huntsman
Post by: minionofmidas on January 03, 2012, 07:29:15 AM
Maybe if an Israeli newspaper endorsed them.  They are the 51st state afterall.
No. (http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xy5fe_new-model-army-51st-state_music)


Title: Re: Random Lebanese Newspaper endorses Huntsman
Post by: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 07:30:24 AM

I'm sure it's a primary.


Title: Re: Random Lebanese Newspaper endorses Huntsman
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on January 03, 2012, 08:13:00 AM
I expect Maronites, Muslims and Druzes voting sharply across religious lines.


Title: LE PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Santorum, Romney neck and neck, Huntsman rises
Post by: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 10:54:45 AM
New Poll: Lebanon President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-01-02 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920120101108)

Summary:
Romney:
22%
Santorum:
21%
Huntsman:
18%
Paul:
12%
Other:
5%
Undecided:
22%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_101914.pdf)

Look at those cross tabs- it almost seems strictly religious- Santorum's support is 92% Marionite.


Title: Re: LE PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Santorum, Romney neck and neck, Huntsman rises
Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2012, 11:00:52 AM
New Poll: Lebanon President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-01-02 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920120101108)

Summary:
Romney:
22%
Santorum:
21%
Huntsman:
18%
Paul:
12%
Other:
5%
Undecided:
22%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_101914.pdf)

Look at those cross tabs- it almost seems strictly religious- Santorum's support is 92% Marionite.

PPP now polls in Lebanon as well ? Their phone bill must be sky-high !

Unless it was an Internet poll (but if this were the case, Ron Paul for sure must be leading).


Title: Re: LE PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Santorum, Romney neck and neck, Huntsman ri
Post by: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 11:04:36 AM
Why? Everyone knows Lebanon is a state just like any other. Their primary is known for being rather important. It foreshadowed Giuliani's downfall in Florida when he preformed worse than expected here. It gave then-native son Émile Lahoud a bump in 2000 before being beaten by Bush on Super Tuesday. Then, cross-sectarian voting existed. Can we see it this year?

I really think Huntsman can gain the support of the Sunnis as well.


Title: Re: Random Lebanese Newspaper endorses Huntsman
Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2012, 11:05:34 AM
What time do the polls close in Lebanon tomorrow night?

In 2 hours, which is 8pm Beirut time. Exit Polls can be expected as well. Turnout was moderate.


Title: Re: Daily Star endorses Huntsman
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 03, 2012, 11:07:54 AM
Thought you meant the UK's Daily Star for a minute there. Would've been funnier.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Discussion Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 11:12:06 AM
Santorum has been to all six governates!


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Discussion Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on January 03, 2012, 12:10:48 PM
Any word on turnout in Druze areas?


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Discussion Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 03, 2012, 12:41:41 PM

And how about the turnout among Polaqi refugees?


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Discussion Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on January 03, 2012, 01:05:35 PM

And how about the turnout among Polaqi refugees?


Don't worry. I already urged my cousins to support Santorum.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Discussion Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on January 03, 2012, 01:14:09 PM
Anyway, I predict Santorum victory due to other candidates splitting Muslin votes.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Discussion Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 01:27:57 PM
Santorum only has the Maronite vote secured, other Christian groups are strongly leaning Romney.

Did they allow expatriate voting? I know they were dithering on that issue, Lebanese abroad are heavily Maronite and that would greatly affect the results. I've also heard that Huntsman was making some inroads into the few Orthodocs. Paul has had the most mixed support, but he's still largely Sunni-backed.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: TheGlobalizer on January 03, 2012, 01:33:18 PM
I *heart* this thread.  Please continue.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 01:36:19 PM
Tender, can we sticky this? The first exit poll results should be coming out any time now.

Unfortunately, I'm hearing reports of irregularities in parts of Beirut.

edit: here is a blank map of Lebanon's counties (and Beirut's wards) that can be colored in as the night goes on.

()

And the source, so we know what's where. (http://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/wp-content/gallery/lebanon2005/2005-lebanon-legislative-districts.gif)

Has Jumblatt endorsed anyone yet? Or is he going to do one of his quixotic third party runs again that gets only 10% in his home state?


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: TheGlobalizer on January 03, 2012, 02:00:14 PM
Tender, can we sticky this? The first exit poll results should be coming out any time now.

Unfortunately, I'm hearing reports of irregularities in parts of Beirut.

edit: here is a blank map of Lebanon's counties (and Beirut's wards) that can be colored in as the night goes on.

()

And the source, so we know what's where. (http://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/wp-content/gallery/lebanon2005/2005-lebanon-legislative-districts.gif)

Has Jumblatt endorsed anyone yet? Or is he going to do one of his quixotic third party runs again that gets only 10% in his home state?

Walid Jumblatt is clearly the Ron Paul of Lebanon.

By the way, had a fantastic feast at a restaurant in a Druze town (Daliyat al-Karmel, Israel; near Haifa) in 2006.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on January 03, 2012, 02:23:39 PM
Wait...has anyone actually seen Jon Huntsman's birth certificate?


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on January 03, 2012, 02:24:45 PM
Significance of Lebanon primary cannot be understated.

Remember when, back in 1972, Muskie cried in Beirut? That changed the entire race.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on January 03, 2012, 02:33:34 PM
Don't count on Jumblatt backing out if his campaign falters outside of the Druze area's, people, because with the scores he's going to rack up in those he'll still be able to secure that all important 4th ticket to New Hampshire no matter what. If he wasn't on the ballot I'd exoect most of his support to coalesce around Romney and maybe Huntsman.

The big question of course is how well Paul is going to do in the Palestinian caucus meetings. If these are among the first to report Paul might be able to spin the evening's narrative in his advantage before the inevitable hammering in the Bekaa valley would come in.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on January 03, 2012, 03:02:18 PM
Is Hezbollah, as the state's Tea Party branch, still supporting Bachmann?


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 03, 2012, 03:15:06 PM
I *heart* this thread.  Please continue.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Yelnoc on January 03, 2012, 03:20:52 PM
Is Hezbollah, as the state's Tea Party branch, still supporting Bachmann?
Hezbollah, supporting a woman?  You've got to be kidding me.  Last I heard they've stuck with Perry since August.  That oops was a moment Hezbollah could sympathize with.  Everyone knows someone's who's had a suicide vest malfunction, after all.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 03:22:31 PM
Yelnoc, you seem to be confusing the two branches of Hezbollah. One goes on bombing sprees, fights Israel, yadda yadda. The other is non-military, political, and is the one affiliated with the Tea Party. They're much larger, and have been around since the 20's when the US received the League of Nations mandate over Lebanon. They opposed the 66' statehood referendum and rioted in  67' when Lebanon was admitted into the Union.

Perry's secessionist comments actually were a plus with them, with their whole semi-independentism

Don't count on Jumblatt backing out if his campaign falters outside of the Druze area's, people, because with the scores he's going to rack up in those he'll still be able to secure that all important 4th ticket to New Hampshire no matter what. If he wasn't on the ballot I'd exoect most of his support to coalesce around Romney and maybe Huntsman.

The big question of course is how well Paul is going to do in the Palestinian caucus meetings. If these are among the first to report Paul might be able to spin the evening's narrative in his advantage before the inevitable hammering in the Bekaa valley would come in.

I meant that Jumblatt would run as an independent, but why not?

People often write off this primary, despite its first-in the nation status, because of its radically different demographics and religious/ethnic voting, but I think Lebanon holds a key as to various groups and demographics in back in the other 50 states.

And don't rule out the Bekaa Valley- Paul has been able to draw support across ethnic and religious lines,  and he can at least count on the ~15%-odd Sunni vote there. We'll see how it turns out.

I really don't know why Jumblatt is running in the GOP. He's an outright socialist. He's not going anywhere. I know Lebanon is, like, the only state were all groups are 50% Democrat and 50% Republican, but I see no path for him. He's not in Buddy Roemer-land. He's in Karger-land.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on January 03, 2012, 03:25:07 PM
Is Hezbollah, as the state's Tea Party branch, still supporting Bachmann?
Hezbollah, supporting a woman?  You've got to be kidding me.  Last I heard they've stuck with Perry since August.  That oops was a moment Hezbollah could sympathize with.  Everyone knows someone's who's had a suicide vest malfunction, after all.

Hezbollah with Perry? You got to be kidding me, my friend. Perry, with all his talk about border security, cannot appel to Hezbollah for a very obvious reason!


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 03:35:59 PM
BREAKING NEWS: LB GOP Chairman Samir Jaja is announcing that vote count in Bint Jbeil, Marjeyoun, and Bekaa West is being stopped. These are Paul's strongest areas!

Yet again, trilingualism makes these kinds of things difficult.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on January 03, 2012, 03:46:00 PM
Is Hezbollah, as the state's Tea Party branch, still supporting Bachmann?
Hezbollah, supporting a woman?  You've got to be kidding me.  Last I heard they've stuck with Perry since August.  That oops was a moment Hezbollah could sympathize with.  Everyone knows someone's who's had a suicide vest malfunction, after all.

Hezbollah with Perry? You got to be kidding me, my friend. Perry, with all his talk about border security, cannot appel to Hezbollah for a very obvious reason!

It should be noted that Gingrich's poll numbers have been in free-fall ever since he pledged not to appoint any Muslims to government positions if elected.

A portion of Hezbollah has clearly become almost religiously dedicated  to electing Ron Paul due to his opposition to U.S. military intervention in the Middle East and his staunch support for deficit reduction (specifically cutting aid to Israel).  The real question is whether or not undecided Hezbollah voters will be willing to overlook his liberal social views such as his opposition to the war on drugs.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 03:57:45 PM
Romney ad in French:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKzezH3-k7c


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on January 03, 2012, 04:04:29 PM
Romney ad in French:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKzezH3-k7c

So typically Romney to really pander to the Maronite vote. One just has to wonder what his campaign think they are doing by so completely ignoring other crucial voting blocs. With such a complete disconnect with the actual situation on the ground (even among Maronites, surely, a move as transparant as this one must feel very 1980s)I'm hard pressed to see him do better than a distant third.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on January 03, 2012, 04:17:36 PM
I've heard about a movement that encourages to write-in Bashar Al-Assad, because no candidate is "conservative" enough.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Vosem on January 03, 2012, 04:38:12 PM
I've heard about a movement that encourages to write-in Bashar Al-Assad, because no candidate is "conservative" enough.

I doubt anything will come of it, though. If only Assad had announced his candidacy, he could be dominating right now. It's amazing how many potential Presidents missed out on this nomination-on-a-platter -- Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Bashar al-Assad, Chris Christie.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: ilikeverin on January 03, 2012, 04:46:05 PM
Anyway, I predict Santorum victory due to other candidates splitting Muslin votes.

I don't know.  Bachmann has been seen recently campaigning in Baalbek, wearing a Muslin dress.  I've heard the Muslin-wearing fashionistas in Jdeide were very appreciative, so much so that Perry was seen a couple of days later touring through Baalbek in a Muslin dress of his own.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on January 03, 2012, 04:49:26 PM
Anyway, I predict Santorum victory due to other candidates splitting Muslin votes.

I don't know.  Bachmann has been seen recently campaigning in Baalbek, wearing a Muslin dress.  I've heard the Muslin-wearing fashionistas in Jdeide were very appreciative, so much so that Perry was seen a couple of days later touring through Baalbek in a Muslin dress of his own.

Oh, you got me ;D


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 04:54:53 PM
Romney ad in French:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKzezH3-k7c

So typically Romney to really pander to the Maronite vote. One just has to wonder what his campaign think they are doing by so completely ignoring other crucial voting blocs. With such a complete disconnect with the actual situation on the ground (even among Maronites, surely, a move as transparant as this one must feel very 1980s)I'm hard pressed to see him do better than a distant third.

Yet Maronites are clearly with Santorum. This could alienate him with his Orthodox core base. Most of his support comes from non-Maronite Christians.

Perhaps if the 16 million Lebanese (who are virtually all Maronite) abroad come back, it would pay off, but until then he has to deal with the 4 million here.

Anyway, I predict Santorum victory due to other candidates splitting Muslin votes.

I don't know.  Bachmann has been seen recently campaigning in Baalbek, wearing a Muslin dress.  I've heard the Muslin-wearing fashionistas in Jdeide were very appreciative, so much so that Perry was seen a couple of days later touring through Baalbek in a Muslin dress of his own.

Damn low cell-phone penetration. I would have killed to see that. Syria's primary isn't until super Tuesday, but I really think al-Assad would have made a great president. So stylish, a good record as governor! All these two states are surrounded by foreign countries, and the other 50 of our 52 in North America are... um... why did I say that?


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 03, 2012, 05:14:03 PM
Anyway, I predict Santorum victory due to other candidates splitting Muslin votes.

I don't know.  Bachmann has been seen recently campaigning in Baalbek, wearing a Muslin dress.  I've heard the Muslin-wearing fashionistas in Jdeide were very appreciative, so much so that Perry was seen a couple of days later touring through Baalbek in a Muslin dress of his own.

()


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: ilikeverin on January 03, 2012, 05:16:27 PM
Anyway, I predict Santorum victory due to other candidates splitting Muslin votes.

I don't know.  Bachmann has been seen recently campaigning in Baalbek, wearing a Muslin dress.  I've heard the Muslin-wearing fashionistas in Jdeide were very appreciative, so much so that Perry was seen a couple of days later touring through Baalbek in a Muslin dress of his own.

()

A common misapprehension, but Obama's Muslin dresses are indeed full-Muslin; he just prefers a wider variety of colors than is typical.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 03, 2012, 05:25:06 PM
I've heard about a movement that encourages to write-in Bashar Al-Assad, because no candidate is "conservative" enough.

I doubt anything will come of it, though. If only Assad had announced his candidacy, he could be dominating right now. It's amazing how many potential Presidents missed out on this nomination-on-a-platter -- Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Bashar al-Assad, Chris Christie.

Assad would end up like Perry.

"If elected, there are 3 things I will do to my opponents : murder them, torture them, and... wait, what was that ? Murder, torture, and... ? Oops."


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on January 03, 2012, 05:27:10 PM
I've heard about a movement that encourages to write-in Bashar Al-Assad, because no candidate is "conservative" enough.

I doubt anything will come of it, though. If only Assad had announced his candidacy, he could be dominating right now. It's amazing how many potential Presidents missed out on this nomination-on-a-platter -- Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Bashar al-Assad, Chris Christie.

Assad would end up like Perry.

"If elected, there are 3 things I will do to my opponents : murder them, torture them, and... wait, what was that ? Murder, torture, and... ? Oops."

I feel Assad prefers to remain Governor of Syria for life, just like Perry wants to be Governor of Texas for life.

Btw, any thoughts from will Alawites support during Syria primary?


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 05:31:48 PM
I've heard about a movement that encourages to write-in Bashar Al-Assad, because no candidate is "conservative" enough.

I doubt anything will come of it, though. If only Assad had announced his candidacy, he could be dominating right now. It's amazing how many potential Presidents missed out on this nomination-on-a-platter -- Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Bashar al-Assad, Chris Christie.

Assad would end up like Perry.

"If elected, there are 3 things I will do to my opponents : murder them, torture them, and... wait, what was that ? Murder, torture, and... ? Oops."

I feel Assad prefers to remain Governor of Syria for life, just like Perry wants to be Governor of Texas for life.

Btw, any thoughts from will Alawites support during Syria primary?

You're far too unkind. The riots this year were led by independentist leftists. It's hard to understand from here. I even heard he wants to institute term limits- no five terms as governor like dad. I think he'd make a great candidate in 2016 for the GOP. He's not a dictator, far less autocratic than Perry or Bloomberg are. This picture sums up how most feel:

()

Voting in Syria is far less ethnic-based than Lebanon when it comes to national two-party politics. And in any case, al-Assad has endorsed Romney.

All right, all right, we get it, every presidential candidate picks up a few muslin dresses while swinging through the two Levantine States. Back to the primary.

We have a new exit poll from Université Saint-Joseph. They've been fairly reliable.

22%  Santorum
21%  Romney   
21%  Huntsman
17%  Paul
13%  Jumblatt
6%    Others

http://www.usj.edu.lb/en/polling/primary2012/exit/2330poll03012012.pdf


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on January 03, 2012, 05:35:47 PM
All right, all right, we get it, every presidential candidate picks up a few muslin dresses while swinging through the two Levantine States. Back to the primary

We have a new exit poll from Université Saint-Joseph. They've been fairly reliable.

22%  Santorum
21%  Romney  
21%  Huntsman
17%  Paul
13%  Jumblatt
6%    Others

http://www.usj.edu.lb/en/polling/primary2012/exit/2330poll03012012.pdf

Looks like Jumblatt't candidacy hurts Romney.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Free Palestine on January 03, 2012, 05:55:47 PM
There's no way any Middle Eastern state would vote for anyone other than Paul.  Since Paul is the only one who doesn't worship Israel.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 05:58:09 PM
There's no way any Middle Eastern state would vote for anyone other than Paul.  Since Paul is the only one who doesn't worship Israel.

Most people there, being Americans, don't hate Israel. And the polls prove you wrong. His tolerance for Iranian nuclear weapons resulted in a sharp decline in both states- he went from 18% to 7% there in Lebanon.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Free Palestine on January 03, 2012, 06:17:19 PM
Well here in Best Korea he's way ahead in the polls.  But then again, he's the only one on the ballot and anyone who doesn't vote for him gets sent to a camp.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on January 03, 2012, 06:18:59 PM
I think Governor Assad would have been a dream candidate for the GOP, had he only ran. Young (46), yet experienced (eleven years as Governor, longer than anyone in the nation). Has attractive wife and is very popular (reelected with 97.6% last time).


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 06:22:03 PM
I think Governor Assad would have been a dream candidate for the GOP, had he only ran. Young (46), yet experienced (eleven years as Governor, longer than anyone in the nation). Has attractive wife and is very popular (reelected with 97.6% last time).

That's only because the Dems actually didn't nominate a candidate. He's not running for a fourth term, though.

Any news from Lebanon? No one except Huntsman is in state, the rest are in Iowa. Even he's leaving for NH.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on January 03, 2012, 06:23:25 PM
I think Governor Assad would have been a dream candidate for the GOP, had he only ran. Young (46), yet experienced (eleven years as Governor, longer than anyone in the nation). Has attractive wife and is very popular (reelected with 97.6% last time).

That's only because the Dems actually didn't nominate a candidate.

That's because they knew Assad will massacre them (in election, of course).


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 07:03:49 PM
Huntsman has conceded.

Quote
“‘Today, perhaps, things didn’t get’ — hold on, I’ll start again. ‘Today, perhaps, things didn’t go our way. But you know what they say: when we get knocked down, WE GET BACK UP AGAIN.’ [aside, to aide] So yadda yadda, then wait for the applause, and we’re done. [stares out window] What the hell is that from, anyway? [aide points at laptop] ‘Thub-tumping?’ What’s that? Some Scottish thing? [aide Windexes laptop screen] Hmm. I’ll be damned. [Aide points at screen repeatedly] Ah, TUB-thumping. Got it. [long pause] Really, what the hell is that? [aide shrugs] Do you have Wikipedia on this thing?”


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 08, 2012, 05:10:16 PM
Jumblatt has dropped out.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 08, 2012, 09:18:35 PM
Is there any truth to the rumor that if this somehow ends up going to convention former Governor Lahoud might be a compromise candidate?


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on January 08, 2012, 09:21:58 PM
Is there any truth to the rumor that if this somehow ends up going to convention former Governor Lahoud might be a compromise candidate?

If Emil Lahoud can overcome the legacy of the '05 crisis, then maybe. His opposition to the independence of  the state organizations- the police, for one, from Syria really hurt his popularity. I'm surprised he wasn't impeached.

I mean, merging them made sense in 1978, but by 2005 it was really pointless and seen as a sign of a "domination" of sorts.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 08, 2012, 11:13:14 PM
I'm not saying Lahoud would be a good compromise candidate; if anything the rumor that he's being considered makes the whole tenor of this primary season even more depressing than it already was.


Title: Re: Official Lebanon Primary Results Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on May 09, 2012, 05:27:16 PM
Santorum, by a margin of 1.2%

Santorum 21%
Romney 19%
Huntsman 18%
Paul 12%
Perry 5%
Gingrich 5%


Title: Re: Who will win Lebanon in 2012?
Post by: Simfan34 on May 09, 2012, 05:34:20 PM
I'm calling Lebanon for Romney, 53%.


Title: Re: Who will win Lebanon in 2012?
Post by: The Mikado on May 09, 2012, 06:13:48 PM
We all knew this would happen, but will he win in the General?  We all remember the Obama 2008 campaign's stealth "Obama is a Muslim" campaign they ran in Lebanon, helping him win big among Sunni businessmen who are usually suspicious of the Democratic Party's loose social policy and hostility towards business interests.  Sad to say, but there are still people in Lebanon who devotedly believe that Obama is a Muslim.  Will this give him enough of an edge to beat Romney?


Title: Re: Who will win Lebanon in 2012?
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 09, 2012, 11:45:55 PM
Whoever mentioned Reagan the least would probably win.


Title: Re: Who will win Lebanon in 2012?
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 10, 2012, 08:41:08 AM
Mikado's right. Also remember that Romney's mormonism isn't going to play great among Maronites. They'd be strong for Santorum, but...


Title: Re: Who will win Lebanon in 2012?
Post by: Simfan34 on September 10, 2012, 06:51:32 PM
Obama or Romney?


Title: Re: Who will win Lebanon in 2012?
Post by: Insula Dei on September 10, 2012, 07:03:57 PM
So sad to see a the last, grim spasms of a dying former glory.

Also, I had already almost succeeded in forgetting Huntsman ever existed.


Title: Re: Who will win Lebanon in 2012?
Post by: Simfan34 on September 10, 2012, 07:14:04 PM
So sad to see a the last, grim spasms of a dying former glory.

Also, I had already almost succeeded in forgetting Huntsman ever existed.

Is this an insult?


Title: Re: Who will win Lebanon in 2012?
Post by: mileslunn on September 10, 2012, 07:49:54 PM
Lebanon is not part of the US, so the only ones voting there would be US citizens living there otherwise Republicans or Democrats abroad.  On election day, their votes will be counted in the last state they lived in.  Its not like France or Italy where they have electoral districts globally for abroad residents.  Off course the US lets those abroad vote unlike some, for example where I live in Canada, if you are Canadian who has not resided in the country in the past five years you cannot vote.  I am not sure how many other countries follow this although it is a rule I generally support, mind you unlike the US we don't tax citizens living outside the country either.


Title: Re: Who will win Lebanon in 2012?
Post by: Simfan34 on September 10, 2012, 07:56:19 PM
Lebanon is not part of the US, so the only ones voting there would be US citizens living there otherwise Republicans or Democrats abroad.  On election day, their votes will be counted in the last state they lived in.  Its not like France or Italy where they have electoral districts globally for abroad residents.  Off course the US lets those abroad vote unlike some, for example where I live in Canada, if you are Canadian who has not resided in the country in the past five years you cannot vote.  I am not sure how many other countries follow this although it is a rule I generally support, mind you unlike the US we don't tax citizens living outside the country either.

Of course Lebanon is part of the US. So is Syria. With Alaska and Hawaii they are the four states not part of the 48 contiguous states.


Title: Re: Who will win Lebanon in 2012?
Post by: mileslunn on September 10, 2012, 07:57:45 PM
Lebanon is not part of the US, so the only ones voting there would be US citizens living there otherwise Republicans or Democrats abroad.  On election day, their votes will be counted in the last state they lived in.  Its not like France or Italy where they have electoral districts globally for abroad residents.  Off course the US lets those abroad vote unlike some, for example where I live in Canada, if you are Canadian who has not resided in the country in the past five years you cannot vote.  I am not sure how many other countries follow this although it is a rule I generally support, mind you unlike the US we don't tax citizens living outside the country either.

Of course Lebanon is part of the US. So is Syria. With Alaska and Hawaii they are the four states not part of the 48 contiguous states.

Nonsense.  I don't recall the US invading either country or either country asking to join.  Never mind I doubt the US would want a Muslim majority state, which both are.  Hawaii and Alaska are different as they voluntarily joined the US.


Title: Re: Who will win Lebanon in 2012?
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on September 11, 2012, 07:27:12 AM
Lebanon is not part of the US, so the only ones voting there would be US citizens living there otherwise Republicans or Democrats abroad.  On election day, their votes will be counted in the last state they lived in.  Its not like France or Italy where they have electoral districts globally for abroad residents.  Off course the US lets those abroad vote unlike some, for example where I live in Canada, if you are Canadian who has not resided in the country in the past five years you cannot vote.  I am not sure how many other countries follow this although it is a rule I generally support, mind you unlike the US we don't tax citizens living outside the country either.

Of course Lebanon is part of the US. So is Syria. With Alaska and Hawaii they are the four states not part of the 48 contiguous states.

Nonsense.  I don't recall the US invading either country or either country asking to join.  Never mind I doubt the US would want a Muslim majority state, which both are.  Hawaii and Alaska are different as they voluntarily joined the US.

I think you've missed the joke...


Title: Re: Random Lebanese Newspaper endorses Huntsman
Post by: minionofmidas on September 11, 2012, 08:17:17 AM
Maybe if an Israeli newspaper endorsed them.  They are the 51st state afterall.
I thought that was Britain.

While one day, the United States will be London's 57th postal district. (That's from perhaps my favorite movie.)