Talk Elections

So far we have (incumbents underlined and italicized) (and Here (http://www.opensecrets.org/races/election.php?state=OH) are fundraising numbers through December):

OH-1:
-Steve Chabot (R)
-Connie Pillich (D)

OH-2:
-Jean Schmidt(R)
-Brad Wenstrup (R)
-Frederick Kundrata (R)
-David Krikorian (D)

OH-3:
-Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
-Ted Celeste( D)
-Priscilla Tyson(D)
-Joyce Beatty (D)

OH-4:
-Jim Jordan(R)

OH-5:
-Bob Latta (R)
-Angela Kay Zimmerman(D)

OH-6:
-Bill Johnson (R)
-Charlie Wilson(D)

OH-7:
-Bob Gibbs (R)
-Zach Space(D)

OH-8:
-John Boehner (R)
-John Lewis(R)

OH-9:
-Marcy Kaptur (D)
-Dennis Kucinich (D)
-Graham Veysey(D)
-Samuel Wurzelbacher(R)
-Steven Kraus(R)

OH-10:
-Mike Turner (R)
-John D. Anderson(R)
-Olivia Freeman(D)
-David Esrati(D)
-Thomas McMasters(D)
-Sharen Swartz Neuhardt(D)
-L. Mack Van Allen(D)

OH-11:
-Marcia Fudge (D)

OH-12:
-Pat Tiberi (R)
-William Yarbrough(R)
-James Reese(D)

OH-13:
-Tim Ryan (D)
-Lisa Regula(D)
-Marisha Agana(R)

OH-14:
-Steve LaTourette (R)

OH-15:
-Steve Stivers (R)
-Mark Brown(D)
-Pat Lang(D)

OH-16:
-Jim Renacci (R)
-Betty Sutton (D)
-John  Boccieri(D)
-Dawn Howard(D)

Of these, the ones that could be interesting are:

OH-2: Perennially embattled GOP Representative Jean Schmidt faces a serious primary challenge from Brad Wenstrup (http://www.citybeat.com/cincinnati/blog-2083-wenstrup_runs_for_co.html) who unsuccessfully challenged Cincinnati Mayor Mark Milloy in 2009, losing 54-46. Wenstrup is a podiatrist who spent a year serving in Iraq as a doctor. Schmidt has a fundraising advantage, but this one could still be interesting to watch. Whoever wins the primary will likely win the general election barring something unexpected happening.

OH-6: This is a rematch from 2010 when Republican Bill Johnson narrowly upset Charlie Wilson for a seat that started the 2000s as a Democratic pack seat. This time, Johnson should have the edge since the current district is 4-5 points more Republican, but Wilson remains fairly popular and may have a chance here no matter what the presidential numbers might say.

OH-7: This is again another rematch from 2010, but this seat is much less ancestrally Democratic than OH-6 and is more suburban than anything else in its newly redrawn form.

OH-9: The battle here is between incumbent Democrats Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich, whose districts in Toledo and Cleveland were merged into a Lake Erie district. Kucinich has the fundraising advantage, but Kaptur has picked up the key endorsement of Chase Ritenauer (http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2012/01/map_shows_the_route_to_kucinic.html). Meanwhile, Kucinich has Alan Grayson campaigning for him (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/01/ally_helps_rep_dennis_kucinich.html) in case there is any doubt about who can be the most inflammatory.

OH-16: The main story here is often considered to be the general election fight between Betty Sutton and Jim Renacci, but I've also read that former Democratic Congressman John Boccieri is running here, so Sutton may have a primary challenger. The moderate Boccieri would be a far better general election candidate, but Stark County is probably carved into too many pieces for Boccieri to win a primary in OH-7, OH-13, or here against Sutton. I doubt Sutton can win against Renacci, but I think Boccieri could.

Your colors are wrong.

Atlas' colors are wrong.

DIAF

Neither Space nor Boccieri are running.

Do you have a source on that? I was having trouble finding definitive answers on those two (I am aware that Nina Turner and Rob Frost dropped out even though they are listed on the fundraising site and have money).

Boccieri: http://www.the-daily-record.com/news/article/5137010

"Renacci's former opponent, Boccieri, has decided he is not running for Congress this time around."

Space: http://www.rollcall.com/news/zachary_space_joins_consulting_firm-210329-1.html

New job.

Where is Joe the Plumber?

I'd love to see a Kaptur vs. Kucinich poll.

Austria isn't running against Turner? The GOP did that map flaw (not appending Clinton County to OH-10, in lieu of stretching into Madison County), and excising some Dem precincts from Greene County so that all of Clinton could be included, all for nothing?

This seems like a very, very god awful lineup given that Bob Taft gave the Democrats the state just a few years ago.

Austria announced he is not seeking another term. (http://www.politico.com/blogs/david-catanese/2011/12/austria-to-retire-109149.html)

Essentially yes, though Austria did attack John Boehner a bit over the new map before deciding not to run, so it may have been worth drawing it this way so as to make it appear that the GOP at least cared about him a little.

Seriously, where is Joe the Plumber on your list?  He was a candidate at one point, Lawrence O'Donnell had him on.  Did he give up already?

Joe the Plummer's real name is Samuel Wurzelbacher. He's still a candidate.

In typical fashion, Dennis Kucinich is off fundraising with his attention turned somewhere other than Ohio. (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/01/rep_dennis_kucinich_spends_sat.html) He held a celebrity fundraiser for his campaign and a Haiti fundraiser with Sean Penn, Kim Kardashian, Leonardo DiCaprio, and others.

Meanwhile:
"Kaptur campaign manager Steve Fought said his boss spent the weekend in Cleveland."

Why does this not surprise me at all?

Wilson seeking a rematch? That's nice to hear.

Barney Frank endorsed Kucinich in the 9th. (http://kucinich.us/media/breaking-news-barney-frank-dennis-kucinich)

Interestingly, Kaptur's campaign is saying Frank's endorsement of Kucinich came because Kaptur opposed Dodd-Frank (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/01/rep_dennis_kucinich_gets_barne.html) and that the bill "pampered Wall Street insead of holding them accountable for the damange inflicted on this country."

I also have an odd suspicion that this endorsement might end up hurting Kucinich more than it helps.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer endorses Kaptur over Kucinich (http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2012/02/plain_dealer_endorses_kaptur_i.html). The walls may be closing in on Dennis here. I don't think he's going to survive this one.

Thats a shame.

He should be President.

Another nudge to Dennis. Voinovich suggested (http://www.politico.com/blogs/david-catanese/2012/02/voinovich-kaptur-better-than-kucinich-113595.html) that Kaptur would be a better fit for the district. Though, I'm not sure how much weight he'll have in a Democratic primary.

Is there any bad blood left from when Voinovich defeated Dennis for Cleveland mayor in 1979?

Let us not forget that Kucinich is a Croat and Voinovich is a Serb. ;D

There could be, but I personally think Voinovich finds Kaptur easier to get along with and better positioned to represent the Cleveland area in Congress than Kucinich is. Voinovich has always seemed to value the ability to get along with others easily, right back to his days in City Hall. Kucinich has not.

A Texas-based SuperPAC is targeting Jean Schmidt in the Republican primary (http://www.chillicothegazette.com/article/20120130/NEWS01/201300304). They claim their goal is to encourage primary accountability by funding primary challengers to "long-term congressional incumbents" that "do not have strong support from the voters of her district".

I have to laugh some at this explanation of "long-term incumbents" with "weak support" seing as they are also doing calls on behalf of Dennis Kucinich (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/02/texas_super_pac_does_robocalls.html), who is pretty much the definition of a long-term incumbent who lacks strong support. But then again these guys are in Texas not Ohio :P

I'm skeptical.  How much are newspaper/news site endorsements worth these days?

In general I don't think they're worth very much but if there's one endorsement you would want in this town it would be the Plain Dealer's, especially in a primary. The other notable issue here is that this district is split between the Toledo and Cleveland metro areas, such that most people assume Kaptur will sweep Toledo, Kucinich will sweep Cleveland, and the areas in between will determine the outcome of the election. Cleveland's paper endorsing the woman from Toledo means a lot. Kucinich did manage to get the endorsement of the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party, while Kaptur unsurprisingly has the Lucas County endorsement. Though at the Cuyahoga County meeting, a large number of people stormed out in protest and most of the delegates from Lakewood dissented. Kucinich will beat Kaptur in the Cuyahoga part of the district but the issue is by how much. If it's even remotely close, Kaptur will win comfortably. I doubt Kucinich will even win Lakewood, so he'll need to really run up a huge margin in Cleveland/Parma/Brooklyn.

From these types of endorsements, it always seems like Kucinich is a heavy favorite—among everyone who doesn't live in Ohio.

Kaptur is an embarrassment.

I don't see why people like Kucinich.

He looks like the Democrat version of Trump (i.e. a troll).

I think Kucinich is actually extremely unpopular among most Democrats (including liberals) and especially among Ohio Democrats. 

Basically only very liberal high school and college-age Democrats like Kucinich. Others generally see him as a troll.

(Raises hand)

Updated:

OH-1:
-Steve Chabot (R)
-Jeff Sinnard (D)
-Malcom Kantzler (D)

OH-2:
-Jean Schmidt(R)
-Brad Wenstrup (R)
-Frederick Kundrata (R)
-Tony Bruch (R)
-Joe Green (R)
-David Krikorian (D)
-William Smith (D)

OH-3:
-Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
-Ted Celeste( D)
-Priscilla Tyson(D)
-Joyce Beatty (D)
-Chris Long (R)
-John Adams (R)

OH-4:
-Jim Jordan(R)
-Jim Sloan (D)

OH-5:
-Bob Latta (R)
-Robert Wallis (R)
-Angela Kay Zimmerman(D)

OH-6:
-Bill Johnson (R)
-Victor Smith (R)
-Charlie Wilson (D)
-Cas Adulewicz (D)

OH-7:
-Bob Gibbs (R)
-Hombre Liggett (R)
-Joyce Abrams-Healy (D)

OH-8:
-John Boehner (R)
-John Lewis(R)

OH-9:
-Marcy Kaptur (D)
-Dennis Kucinich (D)
-Graham Veysey(D)
-Samuel Wurzelbacher(R)
-Steven Kraus(R)

OH-10:
-Mike Turner (R)
-John D. Anderson (R)
-Ed Breen (R)
-Olivia Freeman(D)
-David Esrati(D)
-Thomas McMasters(D)
-Sharen Swartz Neuhardt(D)
-L. Mack Van Allen(D)
-Ryan Steele (D)

OH-11:
-Marcia Fudge (D)
-Gerald Carver Henley (D)
-Isaac Powell (D)

OH-12:
-Pat Tiberi (R)
-William Yarbrough(R)
-James Reese(D)
-Doug Litt(D)

OH-13:
-Tim Ryan (D)
-Marisha Agana(R)

OH-14:
-Steve LaTourette (R)
-Dale Virgil Blanchard (D)

OH-15:
-Steve Stivers (R)
-Charles Chope (R)
-Scott Wharton (D)
-Pat Lang (D)

OH-16:
-Jim Renacci (R)
-Betty Sutton (D)

I doubt it matters much, but  Kaptur was endorsed by Bob Dole (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/03/rep_marcy_kaptur_gets_endorsem.html) (and a few actors).

I don't understand why Democrats are so obsessed with compromising on their values that they need to vote out Kucinich.

Normally I'd agree but in this case he's through no fault of any Democrat's found himself running in a primary against somebody who's probably more representative of the values of Ohio Democrats than he is and who also seems to be more able to work well with others.

Kucinch should attack Kaptur for accepting an endorsement from Bob Dole.

I don't think anybody actually minds Bob Dole very much, though.

Kucinich doesn't represent Democratic values, he represents Dennis Kucinich and that's about it, also he has the Alan Grayson problem (he's an attention-craving demagogue who tea-partiers can use for false equivalency whenever someone calls out Bachmann, King, Broun, etc on their extremism).  Plus, in all honesty, Kaptur can do far more for the district (even if one removes Norm Dicks retirement from the equation) than Kucinich ever will be able to (ideology isn't the only thing that matters). 

But Kaptur is just another member of the establishment, it seems.  Kucinich is much better at representing the Progressive movement as a whole and, unlike Kaptur, is willing to stand against his own party leadership when those values are compromised. (http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2011/03/21/kucinich-obama-could-be-impeached.html)  As for working with the other side, he's done plenty of work with Ron Paul.  But if the Democrats want their party to have any legitimacy at all, it needs to nominate less Marcy Kapturs' and more Dennis Kucinichs' and Alan Graysons'.  The Republicans nominate theirs all the time.

Hell, if Kaptur wins the primary, I'll just support the Green Party candidate.  Kucinich can carry out the rest of his work in WA.

I'm conflicted on this race because Kaptur voted against the DREAM Act, which is completely unacceptable to me and shows a lack of moral character. Dennis has consistently displayed this trait through his egomania but at least he votes the right way. Kucinich is a useless troll but on national issues, he's far superior to Kaptur.

Kaptur in a nutshell. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLSLgNFc2kA&feature=player_embedded)

I think Kucinich will lose and  this article shows why (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/03/colleagues_retirement_position.html). Kaptur is seen as more powerful in DC and Kucinich is seen as having lost any connection to Cleveland. He even refused to rule out running in Washington State if he loses the primary. That ought to be a softball question right there. Look at the comments on the bottom for an idea of the local sentiment. I don't see how Kucinich can win this. I just don't.

Also, this is NE Ohio. No one cares about illegal immigration.

From what I've read, there is far more enthusiasm for Kucinich (tons of yard signs for Kucinich in Cleveland). Most of the negative feedback towards Kucinich is coming from Republicans and conservative-leaning independents (I scrolled through news stories and found this out). Democrats/progressives tended to side with Kucinich. Kaptur's ads strike me as general election ads and they parrot Republican talking points plus blatantly lie to the voters. She's received lots of flak because of them.

All the more reason for Kaptur to have the moral conscience to vote for the DREAM Act...

If Kucinich loses to Kaptur, can he still run for one of Washington's open congressional seats?

He will.

And fortunately he will get destroyed should he attempt to run in Washington. 

Except that he doesn't represent the progressive movement well, if anything he hurts and discredits it.  The progressive/liberal-wing of the democratic party is/has been best represented by people like Russ Feingold, Sherrod Brown, Tom Perriello, Paul Wellstone, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, etc.  People like Kucinich and Alan Grayson are self-promoting demagogues who increase polarization, demonize anyone who disagrees with them (rather than acknowledging that good people sometimes disagree on political issues), and alienate voters.  If the Democratic party ever becomes a party of Alan Grayson-types than I would want no part in it.  Additionally, saying "I'm going to be so ideologically puritanical that the candidates I support will never be in a position to actually do anything" is taking the easy way out.  It's like saying "society is so beneath my moral standards that I am not going to participate in it in a meaningful way."  Although this allows one to feel superior, it doesn't fix anything, in fact all it really does is ensure that there will be one less person trying to change society or policy for the better.   

uhhm, no thank you.

Kucinich and Grayson only add to that group.  Increasing polarization?  Demonizing their opponents?  Have you seen the Republican primaries this year?  If the party does change in the way that they both want it to, that will only be for the better.  The modern Progressive movement, as far as I've seen, has become nothing but another pro-establishment movement.  That's what weakens the base.  If we lose the spine of the progressive wing, the Democratic Party as a whole will only look weaker.  We already lost one of those heroes in the last midterm.

And Grayson will probably be back next year.

Look, I really like Kucinich, but I just think Kaptur is better for Ohio. She's more pragmatic, IMO, and she has a great seniority advantage.

 

Yes, I have seen the Republican primaries and the tea-party movement, that's the whole point.  I don't want the Democratic party to become that.  Grayson and Kucinich would not add to the group I mentioned, they would only discredit it.  There is a difference between having a spine and being a self-promoting demagogue.  Also, saying that because the Republicans have been hijacked by their most extreme factions, the Democrats should allow the same thing to happen to them is the political equivalent of "it's not my fault, they started it," hardly a valid justification for doing something.  Additionally, ideology isn't all that matters to voters, and objectively speaking, Kucinich will never be able to do anywhere near as much for Ohio as Kaptur due to the simple fact that he is (rightfully) a pariah in the eyes of most Democrats (including most liberals), Democratic politicians and rank-and-file voters can't stand the man.

If the Democrats continue to compromise on their values for the sake of appearing bipartisan, the other side will win.  All the establishment Democrats did during the first half of Obama's term was compromise every little thing they tried to pass and the Republicans didn't compromise a single thing.  As a result, we lost 60+ seats two years ago, and many of those lost seats belonged to pro-establishment, Republican-lite Democrats.  That is the biggest threat facing the Democratic Party today- not Dennis Kucinich or Alan Grayson.

Voting for a conservadem over a progressive in a primary because the former happens to have seniority on a committee is exactly what the establishment is promoting.  Kucinich has pushed for many things that benefit the country as a whole, while Kaptur served as a lapdog to the GOP.  The opposition Kucinich takes from the left comes mostly from that he isn't moderate enough for mainstream Democrats.  If most liberals are upset with Kucinich for his views, then that underlines the very problem with American liberalism today: it is a center-right ideology.

I drove home to Sandusky to vote this morning and kept my eyes peeled for election lawn signs for the congressional race. I saw a few Kaptur signs in Erie County and one for Graham Veysey (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nypbKOlYEpU) but none for Kucinich. It probably doesn't mean much because I highly doubt Kucinich was ever expecting to win Erie County, but I thought he would have at least managed to put signs up in front of the polling places like Kaptur's campaign did.

Veysey makes a very convincing case.  Why was Kaptur so slow to respond on how she voted on gay marriage?

She was probably trying to come up with a way to avoid giving an answer that would be unpopular in the Democratic primary. By her answer it seems rather likely she did in fact vote for the ban in '04.

Where will the link to primary results be for tonight?

Do it for Helms Deep! Don't let the Orcs(Kaptur) win.

Kucinich up 12225-11909 right now. Almost all of Kucinich's votes are from Cuyahoga County and almost all of Kaptur's are from everywhere else. If this keeps up, Kucinich will lose since less than half the district is in Cuyahoga County.

Where are you getting these results from?

Turnout might be different.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/OH_Page_0306.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/OH_Page_0306.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

I'm also looking at county BOE sites. Only Cuyahoga and Erie are particularly useful though.

Kaptur now leading 16,325 to 14,196 with 16% in.

Damn, I don't see him winning this.

Washington state, it shall be.

Kaptur expands her lead 17,901-14,258 with 20% in.

Where he will lose too. Since he'd lose both the 10th and 1st in the general (not to mention he wouldnt have a chance in the primary in the 10th). The 6th is a possibility, but the D field is pretty deep.

http://beta.wosu.org/news/2012/03/06/ohio-primary-election-news-turnout-light/

Joyce Beatty Defeats Mary Jo Kilroy In 3rd District Primary




As expected, the Republicans drew a favorable map for blacks in exchange for black support of the Congressional map.

Certainly it has worked as blacks now have 2 Representatives out of 18, rather than 1 out of 16!

Political genuises you guys are and you missed this one...

U.S. House - District 2 - GOP Primary
625 of 632 Precincts Reporting - 99%
   Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
   Wenstrup, Brad   GOP   41,120   49%
   Schmidt, Jean (i)   GOP   36,141   43%
   Brush, Tony   GOP   4,161   5%
   Kundrata, Fred   GOP   2,890   3%

Woah.

Why/how did this happen?

Republicans finally woke up and realized that Donald Duck is more electable than Jean Schmidt.

I like Kaptur :P

FINALLY! Dennis is gone. Now hopefully Joe the Plumber will beat Kaptur!

The unholy alliance between black Democrats and Republicans makes me sick.

Well, congratulations to the establishment.  You get to keep your war-funder.

Kucinich takes a last swing at Kaptur as he concedes:

I would like to be able to congratulate Congresswoman Kaptur but I do have to say that she ran a media campaign in the Cleveland media market that was utterly lacking in integrity with false statements half truths, [and] misrepresentations. I hope that is not the kind of representation she would provide to this community. And I don't think the people of Toledo have any idea of the kind of campaign that was run up in the Cleveland area.

Preach it!

Wow I'm liking these results. Kucinich, Kilroy, and Schmidt all lose their seats. If this is any indication of things to come, I'll certainly like all the fresh faces in Congress this January.

Lucas:

Kaptur 94.2%
Kucinich 3.7%
Veysey 2.1%

Ottawa:

Kaptur 81.6%
Veysey 10.5%
Kucinich 7.9%

Huron:

Kaptur 73.3%
Kucinich 18.4%
Veysey 8.3%

Lorain:

Kaptur 49.6%
Kucinich 45.6%
Veysey 4.9%

Cuyahoga County:

Kucinich 72.5%
Kaptur 24.3%
Veysey 3.2%

Maybe if Kucinich hadn't attacked the city of Toledo, he would have done better there.


*I* noticed it, but nobody read my primaries thread.

Politico (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73754.html) has a story on the dragon lady's demise. The Reader's Digest version is that she had no friends, and the Mitten's operation in Hamilton County ballooned the turnout there of the voters least enamored with her. Heck, Schmidt even lost her home county of Clermont; the bulk of it was just too upscale suburban for her own good. It also didn't help that her new CD has more of Hamilton than its pervious iteration.

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In her close GE races, of course, it was the rural parts that split tickets to a dangerous degree and these very voters that saved her. I guess that may be a name rec issue of Wenstrup's.

Yes, it is ironic, but the voters in question are more partisan (rural voters most places are more swingy), so while they don't like Schmidt, they would like a Dem replacement less.

Hahaha to Kucinich I say.

And I'm upset that Jean lost. Wenstrup is an Iraq Veteran, so that maybe the only reason why I may wind up supporting.


Though, if Jean runs as an Indy, I'll actually donate $$$$$ to her even though I live  in NC lol.

Why? I might agree with her politically, but Jean Schmidt was not a very good representative. If she was, she would still be in office. These sorts of things happen when there are better people for a job than the person who currently holds it. Such a pruning, as long as it isn't an ideological fight, is almost always a good thing.

Quite.

There is a SuperPac going after incumbents in primaries.  They went 1 for 2 in Ohio, defeating Schmidt, but not Kaptur.

Unless they were supporting one of the also-rans in that primary (I think there were two)...

What about Krikorian? He was the "establishment" candidate, I suppose.

Supposedly they were supporting Kucinich.  8-termer over the 15-termer.

Inspired by the Masters, the Ohio Democratic Party is attacking Rep. Jim Renacci for belonging to an all male golf club (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/04/democrats_club_rep_jim_renacci.html). The GOP War on Women is on now!

Kucinich has a survey (http://action.kucinich.us/page/s/washington-state-survey) asking whether or not he should run in Washington.

Wrong thread ;D

Yeah, at this point, it kinda is the wrong thread!

Hm, I thought he ruled that out already.  Good to see, nonetheless.

It would be a cool thing if he ran in WA and won. I support him, but I don't know how badly local leaders would react.

It would be great if he ran in WA-1 b/c he has no chance of making it to the runoff and he'll only take money and support from the weakest Democrat in the race (Darcy Brunner).

Here is the primary map for OH-9 between Kaptur and Kucinich (in two pieces becuase the district is weird shaped):
Kaptur in blue
Kucinich in red

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It is almost entirely a clash of media markets where Kaptur almost literally won all of here territory and Kucinich only held about 75%. There are a grand total of five precincts in the Lucas County portion where Kaptur had less than 90% of the two-way vote. There were more precincts where Kucinich literally had zero votes.

Good job TJ!