Atlas Forum

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: YL on January 12, 2012, 01:43:54 pm



Title: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on January 12, 2012, 01:43:54 pm
I thought I'd start this now as a place to put the latest development in the Liverpool Lib Dems/Warren Bradley soap opera:
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/liverpool-news/local-news/2012/01/10/warren-bradley-to-stand-as-indepedent-candidate-in-liverpool-council-elections-100252-30090472/

Anyway, there are elections in all Scottish and Welsh unitaries, all English metropolitan councils, most English unitaries, and some English second tier districts.  (Full list here (http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/elec2012.htm).)  There's also, of course, the London mayor and Assembly election, and certain cities are being forced to have referendums on introducing elected mayors of our own.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on January 12, 2012, 03:46:16 pm
Just for interest's sake, if you apply a repeat of last year's seat gains/losses in the individual councils in England you get:

Labour gain;
Birmingham (from No Overall Control)
Bradford (from NOC)
Derby (from NOC)
North East Lincolnshire (from NOC)
Plymouth (from Conservatives)
Chorley (from NOC)
Rochdale (from NOC)
Sefton (from NOC)
Walsall (from NOC)
Wirral (from NOC)
Reading (from NOC)
Southampton (from Conservatives)
Thurrock (from NOC)
Exeter (from NOC)
Harlow (from Conservatives)
Newcastle-under-Lyme (from NOC)
Norwich (from NOC)
Rossendale (from NOC)

Conservative gain;
St Albans (from NOC)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on January 12, 2012, 04:37:48 pm
Up in Scotland the big question is whether the SNP can make further advances. The effects of a Lib Dem decline on an STV voting system is also intriguing. A stright Labour v SNP fight can squeeze out the smaller parties.

A dirty selection battle and threats of long standing Labour councillors running on an Independent Labour ticket coupled with the SNP's recent success means the key race will be the control for Glasgow. The SNP suffered from under nomination last time round, so the hope is that Glasgow will fall to NOC with the SNP hoping to equal or beat Labour this time round.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 12, 2012, 04:44:13 pm
Cardiff could well produce one of its trademark hilarious results.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Harry Hayfield on January 12, 2012, 07:32:56 pm
I'm glad to see a reference to Wales as this year will see what the local electorate make of the 2010 General Election and the 2011 Assembly Elections. I, myself, am hoping to be able to stand for Ceredigion again (this time in a different ward).

And in case, people are wondering about Cardiff, here is the result in 2008 (with the change on 2004)
Conservatives 70,238 votes (28% +7%) winning 17 seats (+5 seats)
Labour 68,024 votes (27% -3%) winning 13 seats (-14 seats)
Liberal Democrats 66,940 votes (26% -7%) winning 35 seats (+2 seats)
Plaid Cymru 32,120 votes (13% +3%) winning 7 seats (+4 seats)
Independents 11,685 votes (5% +3%) winning 3 seats (+3 seats)
Others 5,215 votes (2% -1%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Conservative lead of 2,214 (1%) on a swing of 5% from Lab to Con
No Overall Control, Liberal Democrats short by 3


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 12, 2012, 07:47:00 pm
And in case, people are wondering about Cardiff, here is the result in 2008 (with the change on 2004)
Conservatives 70,238 votes (28% +7%) winning 17 seats (+5 seats)
Labour 68,024 votes (27% -3%) winning 13 seats (-14 seats)
Liberal Democrats 66,940 votes (26% -7%) winning 35 seats (+2 seats)
Plaid Cymru 32,120 votes (13% +3%) winning 7 seats (+4 seats)
Independents 11,685 votes (5% +3%) winning 3 seats (+3 seats)
Others 5,215 votes (2% -1%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Conservative lead of 2,214 (1%) on a swing of 5% from Lab to Con
No Overall Control, Liberal Democrats short by 3

Bizarre numbers. Their fall in May will be steep there, in terms of seats, with majorities like what they must have in Cardiff wards...


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 12, 2012, 07:51:30 pm
Results from 2008 are on the site of Our Man in Bolton (http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2008/406/). As you can see, the exact method of calculating results in multi-member wards makes quite a difference in Cardiff.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on January 14, 2012, 05:57:27 am
And in case, people are wondering about Cardiff, here is the result in 2008 (with the change on 2004)
Conservatives 70,238 votes (28% +7%) winning 17 seats (+5 seats)
Labour 68,024 votes (27% -3%) winning 13 seats (-14 seats)
Liberal Democrats 66,940 votes (26% -7%) winning 35 seats (+2 seats)
Plaid Cymru 32,120 votes (13% +3%) winning 7 seats (+4 seats)
Independents 11,685 votes (5% +3%) winning 3 seats (+3 seats)
Others 5,215 votes (2% -1%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Conservative lead of 2,214 (1%) on a swing of 5% from Lab to Con
No Overall Control, Liberal Democrats short by 3

Bizarre numbers. Their fall in May will be steep there, in terms of seats, with majorities like what they must have in Cardiff wards...

The weird thing is that there are a quite a lot of safe Lib Dem seats in Cardiff (at least in the 2004/2008 context).  If the Lib Dems were to lose every seat they held with a majority of less than 10% in 2008 they would still be left with 20 seats (a loss of 15).  (Incidentally, one of the councillors who would lose out in that scenario is a very good friend of mine.)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 14, 2012, 06:25:48 am
Full list of what's up?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on January 14, 2012, 06:39:32 am
http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/elec2012.htm


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 19, 2012, 11:28:15 am
Do we have a London mayor thread? Because, erm... (http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4676) :D.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: joevsimp on January 19, 2012, 11:56:13 am
Do we have a London mayor thread? Because, erm... (http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4676) :D.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=117807.60

needs bumping definitely

fingers crossed for Ken (and Jenny Jones of course) but I can't vote in that since I've moved out to the sticks,


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on January 19, 2012, 01:43:15 pm
There will be a referendum on whether Doncaster should abandon the elected mayor system (http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/barnsley/breaking_news_voters_to_decide_on_mayor_s_future_1_4161087).


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on January 19, 2012, 06:29:56 pm
:) Two pieces of good news in a particularly awful month.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 20, 2012, 05:05:54 am
There will be a referendum on whether Doncaster should abandon the elected mayor system (http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/barnsley/breaking_news_voters_to_decide_on_mayor_s_future_1_4161087).
I would prefer a referendum on Donny independence. :D


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on January 25, 2012, 01:54:04 pm
Just to let everyone know that my book (http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/pdf/2008/2008-web.pdf) and spreadsheet (http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/pdf/2008/2008_results.zip) of the 2008 UK local election results are now finished.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on January 25, 2012, 03:53:58 pm
F'ing fantastic. :)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on January 26, 2012, 12:32:21 pm
The Liverpool Post (http://www.liverpooldailypost.co.uk/liverpool-news/regional-news/2012/01/26/liverpool-to-vote-for-first-ever-directly-elected-mayor-in-may-99623-30199851/) says that Liverpool is going to bypass the Government's referendum and go straight to having an elected mayor.

I don't like the sound of this:
Quote
The Liverpool Post can exclusively reveal the move is linked to a deal to get £130m of extra cash for schools, housing, regeneration and job creation.

Council leader Joe Anderson said the money is only available if the city chooses to have a mayor.

I presume that Liverpool can be trusted not to elect another Peter Davies, but he isn't exactly the only walking argument against elected mayors in the UK.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on January 27, 2012, 07:04:33 pm
Map of Welsh 2008 local election results:
(http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/misc/wales-1.png)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Harry Hayfield on January 31, 2012, 07:38:21 pm
Map of Welsh 2008 local election results:
(http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/misc/wales-1.png)


Lovely. Am I correct in assuming that white is Ind, pink are local Independents (Llais, Swansea Ind, Merthyr Ind) and that grey is Independent Independent?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: MaxQue on January 31, 2012, 08:01:06 pm
From researches on the wonderful website of the poster, pink is Llais Gwynedd, Independants @ Swansea, Merthyr Independants, People's Voice and Llantwit First Independants.

Gray is a postponed election (a candidate died, I suppose.).

Again, I wish to state than all that precious information was found on the marvelous website of Andrew Teale.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 31, 2012, 08:05:46 pm
I'm so stealing that outline for when I do the 2012 version of my all Wales 2008 map.

Gray is a postponed election (a candidate died, I suppose.).

Yeah, that's the rule.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: MaxQue on January 31, 2012, 08:59:50 pm
I think British people call them countermandered by-elections, no?

And, yes, I know the rule is that. We have the same here, in Canada.

It was applied in Quebec general elections of 1998 (a PQ incumbent running for reelection died. In 1998, eight days before the election in Masson).

We also had a postponed election in Quebec general elections of 1994 and 2003, due to a tie (in St. Jean in 1994 and in Champlain in 2003), which isn't the rule in UK and in most canadian provinces. It is a "drawing of lots" in UK, no?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 31, 2012, 09:03:38 pm
Officially, yeah. There have been two recent parliamentary ones; the first for decades. South Staffs and Thirsk & Malton, but you know that.

Yeah, that's right as well. Not something that happens in parliamentary elections, but there's usually a case or two every year at local government level.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 31, 2012, 09:15:18 pm
Interestingly, two different constituencies in Newfoundland didn't vote on election day in 2007. A candidate died in one constituency, and in the other the Tory was returned unopposed, which is something that would only happen in Newfoundland.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: MaxQue on January 31, 2012, 09:48:05 pm
Oh. Apparently, in the british contermandered elections, only the parties who ran in first can run and only with their first candidate? Or Wikipedia is totally confused?

In Quebec, there is no rule like that. The Champlain by-election was having a couple of minor candidates (like the Christian Democracy Party) not running in the general election, but running in the by-election.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 01, 2012, 09:45:13 am
Major corruption scandal has just blown up in Bury (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-16814508). One of the councillors arrested led the council until last May's elections.

Bribes, I note. Old school.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 01, 2012, 01:26:59 pm
All kicking off over at my own council as well (Wirral).

http://www.wirralnews.co.uk/wirral-news/local-wirral-news/west-wirral-news/2012/02/01/wirral-council-leadership-in-crisis-over-no-confidence-votes-80491-30235739/

9-month old Labour minority will probably be chucked out for a Tory minority before the election. Things could get interesting when the Tories (presumably) lose seats in May.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on February 01, 2012, 06:36:21 pm
Major corruption scandal has just blown up in Bury (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-16814508). One of the councillors arrested led the council until last May's elections.

Bribes, I note. Old school.

Bury people don't do nonsense.

The two Tory councillors arrested represented the two safest Tory wards in the borough: Church ward (basically western Bury along Bolton Road and Ainsworth Road, quite middle-class although there are some dodgier bits) and North Manor ward (a collection of villages between Bury and Ramsbottom that don't really have any connections to each other: Greenmount on the western side of the valley, Walmersley on the eastern side of the valley and Summerseat in the bottom of the valley - basically this ward only exists to keep Walmersley out of neighbouring Moorside ward and stop Moorside voting Tory).

Given that the Conservatives have several seats to defend this year which Labour won easily last year, plus some other difficult defences, they're not exactly making it easy for themselves.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: doktorb on February 02, 2012, 01:07:30 am
Oh. Apparently, in the british contermandered elections, only the parties who ran in first can run and only with their first candidate? Or Wikipedia is totally confused?

In Quebec, there is no rule like that. The Champlain by-election was having a couple of minor candidates (like the Christian Democracy Party) not running in the general election, but running in the by-election.

From what I understand, yes. The rules on deaths during an election were found to be seriously wanting in South Staffordshire, so when it happened again in Thirsk and Malton there was far less confusion.

If the ballot paper in Somewhereshire looks like this:

A. BOLTON (Labour)
C. DENVER (Lib Dem)
C. FARLAND (Cons)
B. HIGGINBOTTOM (Green)
T. SMITH (BNP)

And during the election campaign, the LibDem dies, the only party which can nominate a candidate is the LibDem. No other (additional) party can join the ballot, and the other candidates can be changed if necessary.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Harry Hayfield on February 02, 2012, 03:33:03 pm
Welsh Local Elections 2004 - 2008

I know that Andrew has done some sterling work on the Welsh local elections, but in Wales (as he has pointed out) there is more than one kind of Independent and whilst generally speaking most Independent groupings work together they have been known to squabble over the years so this tally of councillors elected is based on how they were nominated as opposed to their actual workings in council

Welsh Local Elections 2004
Labour   525377   35.48%    (476 Seats)
Independent   218762   14.77%    (315 Seats)
Plaid Cymru   226673   15.30%    (174 Seats)
Liberal Democrat   220310   14.88%    (146 Seats)
Conservative   187593   12.67%    (108 Seats)
Ratepayers    13198    0.89%    (10 Seats)
Non Party Independent    23444    1.58%    (9 Seats)
Swansea Independents    10601    0.71%    (6 Seats)
Merthyr Independents     6077    0.41%    (6 Seats)
People Before Politics     7603    0.51%    (3 Seats)
Social Democratic Party     2655    0.17%    (3 Seats)
Democratic Alliance of Wales     2221    0.15%    (3 Seats)
Llanwit First Independents     3250    0.21%    (2 Seats)
Green    16570    1.11%
Forward Wales     4943    0.33%
Cardiff Citizens     3841    0.25%
Independent Ratepayers     1762    0.11%
Llais Ceredigion     1096    0.07%
United Kingdom Independence Party      907    0.06%
Socialist Alternative      809    0.05%
Rhondda People's Party      596    0.04%
Captain Beany, NMBP      522    0.03%
Communist      382    0.02%
Debra Hill, CPA      266    0.01%
British National Party      254    0.01%
Socialist Labour Party      249    0.01%
Huw Pudner, Respect      210    0.01%
None of the Above Parties      155    0.01%
Anne Savoury, ProLife      134    0.00%
Karl-James Langford, Liberal      110    0.00%

Welsh Local Elections 2008
Labour   462858   29.97%    (344 Seats -132)
Independent   227183   14.71%    (282 Seats -33)
Plaid Cymru   241668   15.65%    (207 Seats +33)
Conservative   272712   17.66%    (173 Seats +65)
Liberal Democrat   223342   14.46%    (166 Seats +20)
Non Party Independent    39352    2.54%    (46 Seats +37)
Llais Gwynedd     7119    0.46%    (12 Seats)
Blaenau Gwent People's Voice    12198    0.79%    (8 Seats)
Swansea Independents    11282    0.73%    (8 Seats +2)
Merthyr Independents     6648    0.43%    (6 Seats)
Ratepayers     9756    0.63%    (4 Seats -6)
Llanwit First Independents     6276    0.40%    (3 Seats +1)
Social Democratic Party     2778    0.17%    (3 Seats)
Green     9544    0.61%
British National Party     4564    0.29%
Independent Ratepayers     2777    0.17%
United Kingdom Independence Party     1723    0.11%
Socialist Alternative      804    0.05%
Communist      695    0.04%
Captain Beany, NMBP      369    0.02%
Respect - The Unity Coalition      186    0.01%
None of the Above Parties       96    0.00%
Karl Langford, Liberal       73    0.00%


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on February 02, 2012, 06:43:09 pm
^Good work.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on February 19, 2012, 07:33:54 pm
So yeah, two weeks ago Labour saw it's budget in Glasgow pass by just 2 votes. There were also 7 defections from the party and a number of those who defected (and were deselected in London's cull a few months ago) will be running against the official Labour candidates.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Andrea on March 04, 2012, 11:35:21 am
The Liverpool Post (http://www.liverpooldailypost.co.uk/liverpool-news/regional-news/2012/01/26/liverpool-to-vote-for-first-ever-directly-elected-mayor-in-may-99623-30199851/) says that Liverpool is going to bypass the Government's referendum and go straight to having an elected mayor.

I don't like the sound of this:
Quote
The Liverpool Post can exclusively reveal the move is linked to a deal to get £130m of extra cash for schools, housing, regeneration and job creation.

Council leader Joe Anderson said the money is only available if the city chooses to have a mayor.

I presume that Liverpool can be trusted not to elect another Peter Davies, but he isn't exactly the only walking argument against elected mayors in the UK.



Joe Anderson has been adopted as the Labour candidate for Liverpool Mayor. He was the only one putting his name forward.

In Salford, Labour has selected Ian Stewart (Eccles MP 1997-2010 before losing out in selections contests against Barbara Keeley and Hazel Blears when one seat was abolished) to be their mayoral candidate. It was a competitive selection (at least on paper. I haven't seen voting figures yet): his rivals were John Merry (current council leader) and Peter Wheeler (a former NEC member and local candidate).  UPDATE: Stewart 259 votes, Merry 131, Wheeler 89
Salford Tories are fielding Karen Garrido (a Worsley councillor and leader of the Tory council group)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 04, 2012, 12:24:56 pm
Joe Anderson's been a fairly good council leader from what I gather, atleast compared to Warren Bradley (not that that says much). He'll win.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on March 10, 2012, 04:07:20 am
Polls reported on Look North last night show "Yes" ahead in the elected mayor referendums in all four Yorkshire cities that are having them.  Retaining the mayor is also ahead in Doncaster.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-17304093


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 25, 2012, 11:52:10 am
My polling card came today. This election'll be my first.

/attentionwhoring


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 29, 2012, 01:14:22 pm
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/03/29/liam-byrne-to-quit-shadow_n_1388155.html?ref=uk

Hope the door doesn't hit him on the way out.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on March 30, 2012, 01:03:04 am
So, what's going to happen in Bradford?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on April 01, 2012, 12:57:37 pm
What Glasgow has in store;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_City_Council_election,_2012


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Andrea on April 01, 2012, 02:19:27 pm
In Scotland SNP and Labour have already guaranteed of 13 seats each because of lack of enough other candidates in some wards (for ex 4 members ward with 5 candidates including 2 Lab/SNP). The Tories and the LibDems are sure of 1 each too.

Labour 13 (3 in North Lanarkshire, 2 in East Ayrshire, 3 in Dumfries & Galloway, 2 in Falkirk, 1 in South Lanarkshire, 1 in Clackmannanshire, 1 in Inverclyde)

SNP 13 (1 in Moray, 2 in Clackmannanshire, 3 in Falkirk, 1 in Western Isles, 2 in Angus, 3 in East Ayrshire, 1 in Aberdeenshire)

Con 1 (in Dumfries and Galloway)

LD 1 (in Argyll and Bute)

There aren't totally unopposed returns though ( for ex 4 members wards with just 4 candidates)




Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on April 01, 2012, 03:38:26 pm
Not having anything better to do I have put all the Scottish candidate lists together into one document.

Download here (https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D7011697_3174152_669114?directDownload=true) (PDF, 2.60 MB)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 01, 2012, 04:05:39 pm
How does the number of candidates in Scotland compare with last time's? Up? Down?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on April 01, 2012, 04:12:39 pm
How does the number of candidates in Scotland compare with last time's? Up? Down?

Up. There's less 'undernomination' by the SNP and more minor party representation. The Greens are also better represented it seems.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on April 01, 2012, 04:19:40 pm
Once against, the political machinations of Blantyre's great and good on the political scene never ceases to amaze me.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Andrea on April 01, 2012, 04:39:21 pm
The number of candidates in 2007 was 2,607
Lab 521
SNP 437
Con 379
LD 331
SSP 126
Green 100
Solidarity 83
Ind 551
Others 79

I think the overall number of candidates this time is a bit down. According to a poster on another forum, the total this year is around 2,401. SNP is clearly up: from 437 to 612. Lab and Con are a bit down (498 and 360). LibDems have reduced their candidatures by 100 to 227. Greens are at 84. The far left has taken a big dip: just over 60 candidates between Sol and SSP


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on April 01, 2012, 04:47:58 pm
The number of candidates in 2007 was 2,607
Lab 521
SNP 437
Con 379
LD 331
SSP 126
Green 100
Solidarity 83
Ind 551
Others 79

I think the overall number of candidates this time is a bit down. According to a poster on another forum, the total this year is around 2,401. SNP is clearly up: from 437 to 612. Lab and Con are a bit down (498 and 360). LibDems have reduced their candidatures by 100 to 227. Greens are at 84. The far left has taken a big dip: just over 60 candidates between Sol and SSP

Well I'll be...


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: doktorb on April 01, 2012, 11:28:44 pm
Oh god, the other forum's gone down :(


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 02, 2012, 12:58:39 pm
Labour held their campaign launch today in Birmingham btw.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Harry Hayfield on April 03, 2012, 02:10:44 am
Once against, the political machinations of Blantyre's great and good on the political scene never ceases to amaze me.

Does this mean that you are not standing for the locals then?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on April 03, 2012, 06:10:23 am
One fewer candidate for the Scottish locals: Aberdeen council have found out that Helena Torry, who had been nominated for Hazelhead/Ashley/Queens Cross ward, is actually a mannequin.

http://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/Article.aspx/2708037
http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/CouncilNews/ci_cns/pr_notice_poll_020412.asp


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 03, 2012, 06:32:02 am
So? Why is that a problem?

Also, how the hell was she selected?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 03, 2012, 06:37:28 am
Labour held their campaign launch today in Birmingham btw.

It's the obvious place.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 03, 2012, 06:52:35 am
Labour held their campaign launch today in Birmingham btw.

It's the obvious place.

Of course.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 04, 2012, 12:15:34 pm
Nominations out in Gwynedd, and it looks as though Plaid are making a big push against Llais. Of course we knew that anyway, so this is just confirmation. But that's where the action is up here.  Also looks likely to be several interesting contests in Bangor and maybe one or two elsewhere (hard to tell, though Seiont ward in Caernarfon will be as bizarre as always; but then that can now be filed in the Llais Drama category).

Loads of unopposed returns, including the ward I live in.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 04, 2012, 01:22:51 pm
Anyone want to predict Labour's vote share in Kirkdale, Liverpool? :P


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Harry Hayfield on April 04, 2012, 02:52:55 pm
Ceredigion's is partially out (eight wards have not had their nominations published online as of 1833 BST today), but the main headlines are:

  • Record number of Conservatives (20 so far) and Liberal Democrats (28)
  • Only two unopposed returns (Lledrod for the Independents and Tregaron for Plaid Cymru)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 05, 2012, 09:50:06 am
SOPN is out for Bradford. Respect (George Galloway)* have not managed to find candidates for every ward in the Met District or even the City proper. Which is not a surprise. What is a little bit of a surprise is the lack of a Respect (George Galloway) candidate in Toller.

In non dancing cat related news, the Labour candidate in eternally Tory Ilkley is none other than Ann Cryer.

*For that is how they shall appear on the ballot.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on April 05, 2012, 11:19:42 am
In Sheffield there are five full slates: Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens, the Tories and UKIP (in order of relevance).  There are five TUSC candidates, one English Democrat and three Independents, one of whom is the Lib Dem (now presumably ex-Lib Dem) who lost in Crookes last year, standing again in his old ward.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on April 05, 2012, 11:26:52 am
Nominees for the single vacancy for Molesey East ward, Elmbridge district council, Surrey.

"Badger" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Steve Bax (Con)
"Bone" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
"Chinners" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Niger Cooper (Molesey Residents Association)
"Crazy Dave" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Ben Griffin (Lab)
"Large" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
"Monkey the Drummer" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Pea Gee Tipps (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
"Scunny" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
SMFMusic Lab (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 06, 2012, 03:48:54 am
wtf?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 06, 2012, 12:29:08 pm
...and confirmation that the attention of Respect has shifted elsewhere has come with the news that there will be no Respect candidate in Sparkbrook.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 06, 2012, 01:06:13 pm
...and confirmation that the attention of Respect has shifted elsewhere has come with the news that there will be no Respect candidate in Sparkbrook.

Joke party.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Bacon King on April 07, 2012, 12:29:03 am
Nominees for the single vacancy for Molesey East ward, Elmbridge district council, Surrey.

"Badger" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Steve Bax (Con)
"Bone" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
"Chinners" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Niger Cooper (Molesey Residents Association)
"Crazy Dave" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Ben Griffin (Lab)
"Large" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
"Monkey the Drummer" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Pea Gee Tipps (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
"Scunny" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
SMFMusic Lab (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)

LOL


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 07, 2012, 03:51:54 am
...and confirmation that the attention of Respect has shifted elsewhere has come with the news that there will be no Respect candidate in Sparkbrook.

Joke party.
It's really more a pressure group on Labour (and a one man show, of course of course) than a real party.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 07, 2012, 12:23:53 pm
Yaqoob was actually born in Bradford so don't be surprised if she runs for something there at some point if she's well enough.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 07, 2012, 06:42:19 pm
Do you respect (George Galloway)?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 09, 2012, 05:53:04 pm
No Lib Dem candidates in the marginal Lab-Con wards of Angela Eagle's constituency (next door to me). ::)

Tory-Lib Council
Tory-Lib Government

Monkey see-Monkey do


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 10, 2012, 11:04:06 am
Labour's first PPB
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=radTKsTJPNE&feature=youtu.be


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Andrea on April 10, 2012, 12:54:27 pm
With candidates officially announced by all councils, at least 97 candidates have been elected unopposed.


Con 19 (6 in Powys, 2 in Flintshire, 1 in Flintshire, 1 in West Oxfordshire, 1 in Newcastle under Lyme, 1 in Conwy, 1 in Rugby, 6 in Monmouthshire)

Lab 20 (1 in Knowsley, 1 in Gwynedd, 2 in Powys, 2 in Pembrokeshire, 4 in Flintshire, 4 in Neath, 1 in Rhondda, 5 in Bridgend)

LD 6 (1 in Gwynedd, 3 in Powys, 1 in Pembrokeshire, 1 in Flintshire)

Plaid 22 (12 in Gwynedd, 2 in Pembrokeshire, 3 in Denbighshire, 1 in Ceredigion, 4 in Conwy)

Ind/No Description 30 (4 in Gwynedd, 12 in Powys, 7 in Pembrokeshire, 1 in Flintshire, 3 in Wrexham, 1 in Denbighshire, 1 in Ceredigion, 1 in Conwy)

Parties are already also guaranteed further 55 seats (for ex 2 members ward with 2 Lab, 1 Con standing):

Con 10 (3 in Daventry, 1 in Broxbourne, 1 in Conwy, 4 in Rugby, 1 in Dumfries and Galloway
Lab 31 (1 in Hartlepool, 2 in Flintshire, 1 in Wrexhan, 3 in Caerphilly, 1 in Neath, 2 in Rhondda, 2 in Merthyr, 3 in Blaenau Gwent, 1 in Bridgend, 2 in Swansea, 3 in North Lanarkshire, 2 in East Ayrshire, 3 in Dumfries & Galloway, 2 in Falkirk, 1 in South Lanarkshire, 1 in Clackmannanshire, 1 in Inverclyde)

13 SNP (1 in Moray, 2 in Clackmannanshire, 3 in Falkirk, 1 in Western Isles, 2 in Angus, 3 in East Ayrshire, 1 in Aberdeenshire)

1 LD (Argyll & Bute)


1 ward in Gwynedd has no candidates.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 10, 2012, 01:11:09 pm
Unopposed returns in Wales:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/8_10_04_12_12_41_08.PNG)

Lighter colour means a guaranteed seat. Very dark grey means no election. The very pretty base map blatantly stolen from Andrew Teale because its much prettier than the one I made years back.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Andrea on April 10, 2012, 03:29:55 pm
thanks for the map.
I loved MPs and local parties congratulating on twitter, without any sign of irony, Cllrs re-elected unopposed last week.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: joevsimp on April 11, 2012, 01:43:25 am
thanks for the map.
I loved MPs and local parties congratulating on twitter, without any sign of irony, Cllrs re-elected unopposed last week.

what happens to the ward with no nominations? and I take it Ynys Mon still have the administrators in


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 11, 2012, 02:53:45 am
thanks for the map.
I loved MPs and local parties congratulating on twitter, without any sign of irony, Cllrs re-elected unopposed last week.

what happens to the ward with no nominations? and I take it Ynys Mon still have the administrators in

A by-election in June, no?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 11, 2012, 11:54:57 am
The Island will have its local elections next year, yeah.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 11, 2012, 12:59:34 pm
So, then. A few cursory predictions, of sorts? Why ever not. I never get very far with this sort of thing, but the general plan is to do all of Wales, and then go through England starting in the North East. Scotland would be last (and so not done at all, probably) because of STV and my inability to count to three.

---

Isle of Anglesey (Ynys Môn)

There are no elections on Anglesey as its councillors have been naughty. Call back this time next year, probably.

Gwynedd

Current Composition: Plaid 38, Independent 21, Llais Gwynedd 9, Labour 4, LDem 3. Or something like that; it can be hard to keep up with things. Just for the record, the figures after the 2008 elections were Plaid 35, Independent 18, Llais Gwynedd 12, LDem 5, Labour 4.

Current Administration: Plaid regained their lost majority via defections and by-elections, but the council is still run according to a very strange committee model. This will not be the case after May when the council switches to the (now) usual Leader and Cabinet structure.

Prediction: Almost certain to be a Plaid majority, unless something goes serious wrong under the surface. Making further predictions more detailed than that would be an error because local elections in Gwynedd can be quite strange and don't always follow wider patterns, but its clear that the main contest is between Plaid and Llais, with Plaid aiming avenge 2008 and to come as close to wiping out Llais as is possible. There are also a couple of spectacularly unpredictable contests in Bangor.

Conwy

Current Composition: Con 18, Ind 15, Plaid 14, Labour 7, LDem 5

Current Administration: A coalition made up of all groups but the Tories.

Prediction: Most likely another hung council with the Tories as the largest party. They have underperformed badly here in local elections for a long time (there are quite a few affluent coastal wards that 'ought' to have Tory councillors but don't), but recent Westminster and Assembly elections have been quite encouraging. Significant gains against the grain (possibly taking them to a narrow majority) are not that likely, but can't be ruled out.

Denbighshire

Current Composition: Con 18, Independent 15, Plaid 8, Labour 6

Current Administration: an All Party coalition, apparently.

Prediction: It's fairly obvious that no party will win a majority. Beyond that, Labour will be looking to make significant gains in and around Rhyl and ought to do so.

More whenever.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 12, 2012, 09:34:31 am
Pointless bit of trivia for any internationals reading this, but the last time Labour made gains on this cycle of seats was in 1995 when they secured 48% of the English vote.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: joevsimp on April 12, 2012, 11:22:37 am
Pointless bit of trivia for any internationals reading this, but the last time Labour made gains on this cycle of seats was in 1995 when they secured 48% of the English vote.

even with a moderately favourable set of councils up, that is a ridiculous result for labour, they'll probably not get that again for another 15 years I reckon


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 12, 2012, 11:29:58 am
Pointless bit of trivia for any internationals reading this, but the last time Labour made gains on this cycle of seats was in 1995 when they secured 48% of the English vote.

even with a moderately favourable set of councils up, that is a ridiculous result for labour, they'll probably not get that again for another 15 years I reckon

Of course Labour (or even the Tories for that matter) won't see that for a good, long time. It was Blair's first locals and Tony Blair was unhumanly popular right from 1994 until Iraq.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 12, 2012, 06:32:57 pm
Liberals only fighting 70% of seats, the lowest since 2000.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9200703/Three-in-10-council-seats-not-contested-by-Liberal-Democrats-at-local-elections.html


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on April 12, 2012, 06:45:21 pm
I'd be interested to see party contesting rates through the years. It says at least 12 years, which opens the door for it being a much longer record (certainly the '00/'04/'08 figures it quotes all hover around 80%, whereas these are at 70%).   


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 12, 2012, 07:06:27 pm
I'd be interested to see party contesting rates through the years. It says at least 12 years, which opens the door for it being a much longer record (certainly the '00/'04/'08 figures it quotes all hover around 80%, whereas these are at 70%).   

If you go by election results alone, we could be looking at 1989/1990.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 12, 2012, 07:18:59 pm
Just looking at the raw figures we have from the past few years, I can only really see the LibDems holding on in Eastleigh and that council which is basically the Westmoreland seat. They'll get 3, if they're lucky, down from 7.

If we're to take the most recent ICM (38-37-13 to Labour) as gospel (which, of course, we shouldn't for many reasons), we'll be seeing a Con>Lab swing of 10.5% and a Lib>Lab swing of 18%, if we work from the projected national swing in 2008.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on April 12, 2012, 07:19:51 pm
Rallings & Thrasher had them at their lowest since 1980, IIRC.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 12, 2012, 07:41:54 pm
2012 and 2013 locals will be very good for Labour, given how 2008 and 2009 were bad.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 12, 2012, 07:55:26 pm
2012 and 2013 locals will be very good for Labour, given how 2008 and 2009 were bad.

2012, on paper, should be excellent. But them again, 2011 was meant to be, but we under performed and the Tories did much better than expected.

2013 should be good, but it's not like many of the seats are in the heartlands.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on April 13, 2012, 06:39:03 am
A few words on Glasgow

Glasgow is being touted as the biggest municipal battle in Scotland and in the Scottish press as ‘second to London.’ Labour will 'loose' Glasgow in the sense that the party will loose it's majority. However the UK press not being intersted in such things will ignore the complexities of STV and instead have people on the 6 O'Clock news believe that something really phenomenal will have happened. Of course, it will have but just not in the way that people will be led to think.

This year saw a slew of resignations from the Labour group after a long running schism. In 2011 long standing (and to their defenders, hard working) councillors were deselected. Alleged ‘bullying’ during the budget debate began a series of resignations from the deselected councillors resulting in Labour loosing control of the council shortly before shutdown. A new party ‘Glasgow First’ (chosen after Labour registered their preferred name of ‘Glasgow Labour’) is standing in a number of wards including of a number of the deselected councillors. Whether or not they will be a success depends highly on the mood of the electorate. 

After under nominating in 2007, the SNP are fielding more candidates with the aim of becoming the largest party (talk of winning outright control has receded somewhat). The Greens who capitalised on transfers last time, winning 5 seats despite getting a smaller share of the vote than the Tories are targeting Lib Dem voters directly in literature. The Greens may fall back given that they won seats on the back of SNP underrepresentation. While Lib Dems are in serious trouble as there is no where in the city where they can win the most first preferences or get above quota prior to the second stage, given that they will survive on the back of transfers to them they may still win 2-3 seats. The Tories underperformed in 2007 (where they won 1 seat despite proportionally being entitled to around 6) and are privately hoping to simply return popular councillor David Meickle in Pollockshields, they also have a shot of winning a seat in Newlands/Auldburn

Prediction?

Had the locals been fought in 2011 during the SNP wave, they would probably have won control of the city knocking Labour out of power for the first time since 1980. Under the old FPTP system, it would have probably won outright.

How Glasgow First will fare is unknown; they may take scalps in every ward or fizzle without trace and it's very difficult to determine what will happen. In most of these seats, the opposing. Labour candidates are unknown so this may help Glasgow First get elected if name recognition means anything. On a good night, I could see them ending up with 3 or 4 councillors getting returned.

I expect Labour to loose overall control, however I have a feeling they will be close to level with the SNP on seats. The problem with STV in a city like Glasgow is that if you have the same two competitive parties in every ward, they will mop up most of the seats leaving the smaller parties the chance of winning only in the 4 seat wards. So you may find results like LAB LAB SNP, SNP SNP LAB and SNP, SNP, LAB, LAB being the order of the day particularly as Labour and SNP voters are interchangable. This could end up squeezing the smaller parties out of contention.

The Lib Dem collapse won’t help. Of course, if the Lib Dems get preferences way down the ballot they might still get candidates over the line. I have the feeling that Tory candidates with a good breathing space between them and the Lib Dems will still end up getting leapfrogged. I

Just to note that the last by-election was in Hillhead in November 2011. Hillhead is the most untypical of Glasgow wards and here the SNP were up 12%, Labour up 5%, the Tories up 2%, the Greens down 5% and the Lib Dems down 9%.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on April 13, 2012, 10:25:00 am
Lose. ;)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: joevsimp on April 13, 2012, 12:27:36 pm
2012 and 2013 locals will be very good for Labour, given how 2008 and 2009 were bad.

2012, on paper, should be excellent. But them again, 2011 was meant to be, but we under performed and the Tories did much better than expected.

2013 should be good, but it's not like many of the seats are in the heartlands.

there's the county councils, I'm fairly sure Labour will want to regain Lancs, Notts, Derbyshire and Staffs, could also do with overtaking the Lib Dems and winning back some of the BNP vote in places like Norhants,  Leicestershire and  Essex


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 13, 2012, 03:08:32 pm
And the award for Cheesiest Party Political Broadcast of the Year goes to Arrogant Alex and the Balamory Party:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01dd1mt/Party_Election_Broadcasts_Scottish_Local_Elections_2012_Scottish_National_Party_16_03_2012/


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 15, 2012, 06:32:27 am
Glasgow SNP leader has an interesting moment at the hustings.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRkyugSQeh4


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on April 16, 2012, 02:24:20 pm
How I'll be voting

Black (CON) 1
Thompson (SNP) 2
Mullen (SNP) 3
Watson (Lib Dem) 4

Not marked: 2 Labour candidates, Indepedent, Christian oddball.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on April 16, 2012, 02:25:56 pm
No elections here until 2015.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: joevsimp on April 16, 2012, 03:13:24 pm
No elections here until 2015.

me neither, county council next year though, and all the fun of the police and crime commissioner elections in november


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 16, 2012, 04:04:43 pm
It's happened...
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/4v1i2t5nh2/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-160412.pdf

So, are the LibDems now technically an "Other"?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on April 16, 2012, 05:41:59 pm
No elections here until 2015.

me neither, county council next year though, and all the fun of the police and crime commissioner elections in november

Argh, don't remind me!

*nosuchthingaselectedpolicecommissionersnosuchthingaselectedpolicecommissionersnosuchthingasel
ectedpolicecommissioners*


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 16, 2012, 06:18:14 pm
No elections here until 2015.

me neither, county council next year though, and all the fun of the police and crime commissioner elections in november

Argh, don't remind me!

*nosuchthingaselectedpolicecommissionersnosuchthingaselectedpolicecommissionersnosuchthingasel
ectedpolicecommissioners*

Talking of which, I got a leaflet/letter from Tal Michael today: his effort to get the Labour nomination here seems to be pretty organised.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on April 16, 2012, 07:37:22 pm
But have you told him there's no such thing as one?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on April 19, 2012, 12:32:56 pm
Quick summary

Labour 2011 - 'The SNP are only focused on independence, this election is about the Tory cuts'
SNP 2011 - 'This is an election to elect members of the Scottish Parliament'

Labour 2012 - 'The SNP are only focused on independence, this election is about the Tory/SNP cuts'
SNP 2012 - 'This is an election to elect councillors for your local area'

Thoughts on how that might work out for them?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: joevsimp on April 19, 2012, 02:39:00 pm
todays libdem ppb was fairly dire, tax cuts, is that the best you can manage?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: doktorb on April 20, 2012, 07:51:26 am
County Councils for us next year. Always fun.

Police and Crime what now?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: stepney on April 20, 2012, 08:28:29 am
County Councils for us next year. Always fun. 

Those county councils up for election next year in full:

BuckinghamshireConservative
CambridgeshireConservative
CumbriaNo overall control 
DerbyshireConservative
DevonConservative
Dorset  Conservative
East Sussex  Conservative
Essex Conservative
Gloucestershire  Conservative 
Hampshire Conservative 
Hertfordshire  Conservative 
Kent  Conservative
Lancashire  Conservative
Leicestershire Conservative 
Lincolnshire Conservative 
NorfolkConservative 
North Yorkshire Conservative 
Northamptonshire  Conservative 
Nottinghamshire  Conservative
Oxfordshire  Conservative
Somerset  Conservative
Staffordshire  Conservative
Suffolk  Conservative 
SurreyConservative 
Warwickshire Conservative
West Sussex Conservative 
Worcestershire Conservative 

Guess it'll be a good night for Labour and Lib Dems; it can't be a bad night, really. The reverse for us - unless something bizarre happens and we pick up Cumbria. :)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on April 26, 2012, 04:20:13 pm
Preview of the elections in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire.  To a large extent I've already posted this elsewhere, but it's updated a bit.

NB to anyone who isn't familiar with our local elections: all these councils elect by thirds, so these seats were last contested in 2008, and each ward has two councillors who aren't up this year.

Barnsley

Currently Lab 42, Barnsley Independent Group (hereafter BIG) 12, Con 6, no party 2.

(Of the two "no party" councillors, one is in Monk Bretton and was elected as a non-BIG independent, and the other is in Darton East and was originally elected as BIG in 2010.)

2008 was BIG 9 (plus an extra one in a double vacancy election in Old Town), Lab 8, Con 2, LD 1, Ind 1.  The LD was in Dearne South and has defected to Labour, so BIG and Labour are each defending 9 seats,  the Tories are defending the two Penistone wards, and there's the aforementioned independent in Monk Bretton (but he is not defending his seat).

As the numbers above show, BIG have struggled since 2008, with only three of their councillors elected since then.  Dodworth is their stronghold, which they won in both 2010 and 2011 and so they have all three councillors there, and they also won North East (home of Grimethorpe Colliery Band) in 2011.  So in 2012 they're defending in seven wards where they don't have any other councillors: Darfield, Hoyland Milton, Kingstone, Old Town, Rockingham, Stairfoot, Worsbrough.

The Boundary Commission's initial proposals move Penistone West ward into Nick Clegg's constituency, and presumably because of that the Lib Dems do have a candidate there for once; it might be interesting to see how they do.  It was held fairly comfortably by the Tories in 2011, though, as was neighbouring Penistone East.

Candidates: Lab 21, Con 21, BIG 13, English Democrats 12, BNP 4, UKIP 3, Lib Dem 2, Socialist Labour 2, TUSC 1, Independent (non-BIG) 4.

Doncaster

Currently Lab 44, Con 9, LD 6, Ind 4.  Three of the Independents were elected as such and are listed on the Council website as "Alliance of Independent Members" the fourth was elected for the Community Group, who used to have several members on the Council; he is defending his seat under that label again, so I don't know why he's Independent on the website.  The Council of course also has an English Democrat Mayor (ugh); there will also be a referendum on abolishing the mayoral system.

2008 was Lab 8, Ind 5, LD 4, Con 3, Community Group 1.  The Independent in Great North Road has defected to Labour, and the Independent seat in Rossington went Labour in a by-election.  So Labour are defending 10 seats, the Lib Dems 4 and the Tories 3, and all four independent seats are up.

The Tories have all three seats in their three wards: Sprotborough, Finningley and Torne Valley.  Of these only Sprotborough looks at all marginal.

The Lib Dems are defending all their seats outside Bessacarr & Cantley this year (and even that ward was quite close last year).  The other wards they're defending are Mexborough, Town Moor and Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandal & Barnby Dun.  The results from last year are not promising for them: they came last in both EKSBD and Town Moor with embarrassing vote shares, and while they did come second in Mexborough it was a pretty distant second.

The Independents in Balby and Edlington & Warmsworth are defending their seats.  All three seats held by Independents (those two and Armthorpe) and also Thorne (Community Group) are in wards won reasonably comfortably by Labour last year.

Candidates: Lab 21, Con 21, Lib Dem 12, English Democrats 7, Community Group 2, Democratic Nationalists 1, UKIP 1, Green 1, Independent 8.

Rotherham

Currently Lab 54, Con 7, BNP 1, Vacant 1.

2008 was a bad year for Labour in Rotherham as many places were, but in Rotherham that means they still won two thirds of the seats: Lab 14, Con 5, BNP 2.  The Tory elected in Anston & Woodsetts defected to Labour, and the BNP councillor elected in Brinsworth & Catcliffe had a somewhat bizarre career (he's the one who supposely joined the National Front without realising that they were a bunch of racists) which ended with him being kicked off the council for non-attendance.

So the Tories are defending four seats: Sitwell, which they held last year, and Hellaby, Wales and Wickersley which were won by Labour.  The BNP are defending Maltby, and Brinsworth & Catcliffe is vacant; both of those were won comfortably by Labour last year.  Everything else is Labour, Labour, Labour.

Is a redwash possible?  Last year Sitwell was Tory by 8%, so it doesn't seem implausible.

Candidates: Lab 21, Con 21, UKIP 12, BNP 5, Lib Dem 4, Green 1, TUSC 1, Raving Loony 1, Independent 5.

Sheffield

Currently Lab 50, LD 32, Green 2.

2008 was LD 16, Lab 11, Green 1.  The LD elected in Gleadless Valley went Independent in 2009 and then Labour in 2011.

The Lib Dems are defending the following wards which Labour won in 2011: East Ecclesfield, West Ecclesfield, Stocksbridge & Upper Don, Hillsborough, Walkley, Broomhill, Crookes, Nether Edge, Mosborough.  Many of these were won by quite big margins last year; Hillsborough and Mosborough had margins over 20%.  West Ecclesfield was the narrowest Labour gain, the margin there being just over 3%.

Then the Lib Dems are defending six wards they did win last year.  Three of these, Stannington (won by just 5 votes), Graves Park and Beauchief & Greenhill, were fairly narrow holds (margins under 7% over Labour).  Ecclesall and Fulwood should be safe for them, while if Dore & Totley is vulnerable to anyone it'll be to the Tories.

The 12 wards Labour are defending all look pretty safe in the current climate.  The remaining ward is Central, which the Greens held narrowly (again over Labour) last year.

Candidates: Lab 28, Lib Dem 28, Con 28, Green 28, UKIP 28, TUSC 5, Eng Dem 1, Independent 3.




Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on April 27, 2012, 01:49:21 pm
Now for West Yorkshire, which is perhaps a bit more interesting, with three hung councils, one of which is Bradford.  The system of elections by thirds is the same as in South Yorkshire.

Bradford

Currently Lab 43, Con 27, Lib Dem 11, Green 3, Ind 5 (2 ex-Tory, 2 ex-BNP, 1 ex-Labour), Vacant 1.  The Council is run by a minority Labour administration.  It's worth remembering that this district contains a lot of areas which aren't part of Bradford as most people understand it.

2008 was Con 14, Lab 9, LD 6, Green 1.  The Tory elected in Craven is now Independent and is defending his seat, the Tory elected in Keighley West has resigned from the Council, and the Tory elected in Toller defected to Labour.  So, including the vacancy, the Tories are defending 12 seats, Labour 10, the Lib Dems 6, the Greens 1, and an Independent is defending Craven.

Of the Tory defences, Bowling & Barkerend, Clayton & Fairweather Green, Heaton, Keighley East and Keighley West were won by Labour last year, only Keighley West having a margin under 10%.  (How the Tories ever managed to win some of these places may seem a bit of a mystery, but as we know Bradford politics can be seriously weird.)  Queensbury was won by the BNP (now Independent).  The other six were Tory holds, Thornton & Allerton having the closest margin at just under 10% over Labour.

Of the Lib Dem defences, Baildon was won by the Tories last year with the Lib Dems in a poor third, and Bradford Moor, Eccleshill and Windhill & Wrose were won by Labour, Bradford Moor by an huge margin.  Idle & Thackley looks fairly safe for the Lib Dems (whose candidate posts on Vote UK), Bolton & Undercliffe a bit less so.

Craven, being defended by an ex-Tory Independent, is generally a safe Tory ward, and Shipley looks fairly safe for the Greens.

All the wards Labour are defending this year, including Toller where the councillor was elected as a Tory, were won by them last year, some with huge majorites.  The wards with huge majorities, of course, include Toller.  However, Keighley Central was only narrowly gained from a defending Tory.

Of course, a certain recent byelection result may have an impact here.  Respect seem a bit disorganised, and although they had at least 15 candidates only 12 of them actually got their papers in on time.  One of the wards they missed was Toller, which otherwise would have been a likely gain for them.  They're likely to threaten what would otherwise have been easy Labour holds in wards like City, Manningham and Little Horton, and similarly what looked like a nailed on Labour gain in Heaton could well go to Respect instead.  Other wards with added uncertainty would include Clayton & Fairweather Green (where the Green candidate from the byelection is standing for Respect - isn't Bradford politics fun?) and maybe Bradford Moor.

Candidates: Lab 30, Lib Dem 30, Con 28, Green 13, Respect 12, UKIP 8, Democratic Nationalists 3, Socialist Labour 1, BNP 1, Independent 1.

Calderdale

Currently Con 21, Lab 13, LD 13, Ind 4. The council is run by a Lib Dem/Labour coalition.

2008 was Con 8, LD 6, Lab 2, BNP 1. The BNP candidate elected in Illingworth & Mixenden is now an Independent, as is the Lib Dem in Warley (Independent Lib Dem on the Council website). Also, the Lib Dem elected in Greetland & Stainland defected to the Tories, so the Tories are defending nine wards, the Lib Dems four and Labour two, with the remaining two now independent.

Of the nine wards they're defending, the Tories won six last year. Labour won Todmorden and Sowerby Bridge, and the Lib Dems won Greetland & Stainland (as mentioned above, this seat is only Tory by defection).  Of the six wards Tory in both 2008 and 2011, Brighouse and Rastrick were close enough that they look plausible Labour targets, while Skircoat is perhaps a rare example of a potential Lib Dem gain.

The Lib Dems had a bad year here too in 2011, only winning Greetland & Stainland and Warley. Of the wards they're defending, Labour won Calder (the ward which includes Hebden Bridge) and Park (in Halifax), both comfortably, while the Tories won Luddendenfoot (Labour close behind with the LDs well back in third) and Elland (close three way).

Illingworth & Mixenden, BNP in 2008, was Labour last year with the Tories second.  The councillor elected in 2008 is defending his seat as an Independent.

Candidates: Lab 17, Con 17, Lib Dem 16, Green 6, TUSC 1, British People's Party 1 (though the candidate has apparently been expelled from the party since the nominations were handed in), Independent 3.


Kirklees

Currently Lab 27, Con 21, LD 14, Green 4, Ind 3, with a Labour minority administration.

2008 was Con 8, Lab 7, LD 7, Green 1, with no changes since.

Of the wards the Tories are defending, they won six in 2011, while Holme Valley North was won by an Independent and Kirkburton by a Green.  (Kirkburton is interesting as a Green/Tory marginal.)  Denby Dale and Liversedge & Gomersal were close enough that they look plausible Labour targets.

The Lib Dems had a bad night in 2011 as in many Mets, only winning two wards.  Of the other five they're defending this year, Dewsbury West, Dalton and Golcar were won by Labour, while Colne Valley and Lindley were won by the Tories.  Colne Valley was a three-way marginal last year (Con 1656, Lab 1554, LD 1425).

All seven of the wards Labour are defending this year went for them last year, and none look close.

Newsome has three Green councillors and they won it comfortably last year.

Candidates: Lab 23, Con 23, Lib Dem 23, Green 19, TUSC 3, UKIP 3, English Democrat 1, Independent 5.

Leeds

Currently Lab 55, Con 21, Lib Dem 16, Morley Borough Independents (MBI) 5, Green 2.

2008 was Lab 13, Lib Dem 9, Con 8 (plus one in a double vacancy), MBI 2, Green 1, and there have been no changes.

Of the eight wards the Tories are defending, Roundhay and Temple Newsam were won fairly comfortably by Labour last year, and the Tories held the other six.  Four of them look safe, while in Guiseley & Rawdon and Calverley & Farsley Labour weren't that far behind.

Of the nine wards the Lib Dems are defending, they only won two last year (Weetwood and Otley & Yeadon); Labour won six, a couple by huge margins (you'd never believe that Gipton & Harehills had recently voted Lib Dem from the 2011 result), and Horsforth turned into a three-way marginal which the Tories won.

All the wards Labour are defending look pretty safe.  Then the two Morley wards are being defended by the MBIs, who last year held North easily but lost South narrowly to Labour -- and Farnley & Wortley by the Greens, who held it by a few hundred votes last year (but didn't win it in 2010).

Candidates: Lab 33, Con 33, Lib Dem 30, Green 19, UKIP 14, English Democrats 11, Alliance for Green Socialism 9, TUSC 4, BNP 1, Independent 4.


Wakefield

Currently Lab 40, Con 19, Ind 2, vacant 2.  One Independent was elected as such; the other one was elected as a Tory.

2008 was Con 11, Lab 8, Ind 3, with a double vacancy in Hemsworth, the runner-up there being Labour.  The Independent elected in Featherstone has joined Labour, and the Tory elected in Horbury & South Ossett is now an Independent.  There are vacancies in two wards, Hemsworth (Ind) and Pontefract North (Con).  So, including the two vacancies, the Tories are defending 10 seats, Labour 8 and independents 3.

The two Independents, Graham Jesty (Horbury & South Ossett; elected as Con) and Wilf Benson (South Elmsall & South Kirkby), are both defending their seats.  Both wards were won by Labour last year, the former rather narrowly (over Con) and the latter by a landslide.  Hemsworth was also comfortably Labour last year.

Last year the Tories only won four wards: Ossett, Wakefield Rural, Wakefield South and Wakefield West.  All of these were marginal over Labour (within 5%) except Wakefield South, which looks safe.  The other six wards the Tories are defending (Ackworth et al, Crofton et al, Pontefract N, Pontefract S, Stanley & Outwood E, Wrenthorpe & Outwood W) were won by Labour; only Pontefract S and Wrenthorpe & Outwood W were within 10%, and those not by much.

Everywhere Labour are defending was won comfortably by them last year.  Their best performance was 80% in Airedale & Ferry Fryston.

Candidates: Lab 21, Con 21, UKIP 10, Lib Dem 7, TUSC 2, Green 2, English Democrats 1, Independent 2, no description 4.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Peter on April 29, 2012, 07:44:47 am
Oxford 2012 (half council up)

Incumbent map below.

Present seats (seats up)

Labour 26 (13)
Lib Dem 16 (7)
Green 5 (3)
IWCA 1 (1)

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/3_29_04_12_7_35_49.png)

This is the first election in Oxford since the coalition government came into being. The IWCA seems to have disbanded and are not contesting their seat - expect a Labour gain there.

The Lib Dem student wards are potentially quite vulnerable: The Headington ward (the LD ward on its own) is the Oxford Brookes ward - its probably most vulnerable to Labour.

The two most southerly wards in the centre, Carfax & Holywell, will be vulnerable to the Greens.

Most of the Labour wards should be safe, though I haven't been following the fickle Cowley road politics which historically have involved key groups swinging basically wholesale between the LDs and Labour.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 29, 2012, 11:37:23 am
Is a total yellow meltdown possible, or are some wards just too safe for even an outside chance of that?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Peter on April 29, 2012, 12:29:00 pm
Ward name map (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oxford_wards_OSM.svg)

Of the four remaining wards to the NW, Wolvercote (the most northerly) is the most vulnerable on paper. To the Tories. Which could actually happen if there is a mini-collapse in the LD vote and the Tory vote holds.

The two directly below that, Summertown and St Margarets, will never fall. If anything, the LD voters of those wards are the most likely in Oxford to support coalition policies.

The final ward, North, just above the Carfax-Holywell pairing, looks quite safe on paper, however, Sushilla Dhall is contesting it for the Greens. She's a pretty big hitter for the LDs locally: she was Councillor for Carfax ward; she polled very well in this ward back in 2004; and contested a general election in Oxford in 2010. She'll be coming from a low base of 14%, but there's a good number of students in that ward, so its possible.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Gary J on April 29, 2012, 06:35:26 pm
I can give some details for the election of a third of Slough Borough Council (Slough is the area to the west of London Heathrow Airport to those unfamiliar with it).

There is one vacancy in each of the 14 wards. The Council has a total of 41 members (as one ward has 2 councillors). The current membership of the Council is Labour 27, Conservative 8 and Britwellian, Independent, Liberal and Liberal Democrat Group (BILLD) 5.

The 41st Councillor, not in any group, is the remarkable Councillor Pervez Choudhry. He was elected as a Labour Councillor from Central Ward in 2008. He was then blocked from becoming Labour group leader in 2008, as his factional opponents had better ties with the national party. Choudhry responded by defecting to the Conservatives and by 2010 had become their group leader. He was then charged with bigamy. As a result he was suspended from the Council group and resigned from the Conservative Party. Since then he has been sitting as an Independent. Recently Choudhry took the very unusual step, for a sitting Councillor for one ward, of contesting Baylis and Stoke ward as an Independent in a by-election. He polled quite well but was not close to winning the by-election. He is a candidate in the same ward in this year's ordinary election. After nominations closed, Choudhry's bigamy trial was heard at Reading Crown Court. At the last moment Chaudhry changed his plea to guilty. He will be sentenced next month, after the election. Surely he will not be re-elected, even though he does not have a Conservative opponent in the May election.

The seats up for election this year are held by 8 Labour, 3 Conservative, 4 BILLD (1 Lib Dem, 1 Independent Britwellian Residents, 1 Liberal and 1 Independent) and 1 Independent councillors.

The Labour Party should do well on national trends, but may be affected by some little, local difficulties. Another round of factional infighting saw the Labour leader of the Council and a cabinet commissioner (who is reputedly a very, very close friend of Fiona MacTaggart MP) de-selected in the wards they represented. They are now contesting opposition held seats. The local Labour Party itself is being investigated by the Labour Party nationally over what happened in candidate selection. Perhaps someone with influence on the national party was not amused by what happened. In any event the report on the investigation is being delayed until after the local election. Perhaps more seriously, the Heart of Slough project is over budget, over time and has caused traffic chaos. The new bus station is drafty and wet in bad weather and is not considered by bus users to be an improvement on the old bus station. The council seems to have a fixation on building prestige projects in the town centre and neglecting outlying areas. Some of these problems may enable some opposition candidates to survive.

The Conservative Party is weak in the town, but has gained ground as against the BILLD Group. In the 2004-2008 joint administration, the Conservatives were the smaller group but since then they have lost less than the other opposition group. The Tories seem reasonably safe in Langley St Mary's ward (where they hold all three seats) and Haymill ward (where they won from the Liberals in the last two cycles and the octogenarian Liberal incumbent is retiring this year). They may hold on to the one seat they have in Upton (Lab/Con marginal, where a well respected veteran Conservative veteran may hold on to the last Tory seat in the ward) and in Chalvey (energetic young Asian incumbent, whose election in 2008 was a surprise when he defeated a white Muslim in a hitherto Labour ward, facing the aforementioned friend of the MP who is of eastern European origin). The Tories surely have no hope of winning Central ward (where a former Conservative councillor and some of his associates went to jail for election fraud a few years ago) or any of the other seats in Slough.

Of the components of the BILLD group, the Liberals and Wexham Lea Independents are not contesting their seats. Labour had a large majority in Wexham Lea last year and the Conservatives have been winning Haymill from the Liberals in the last two cycles. The IBR incumbent in Britwell, facing the Labour Council leader in a ward which Labour has won in 2010 and 2011, may have an outside chance of retaining his seat and if he does it will cause an earthquake in Slough politics. The Lib Dem incumbent in Foxborough ward is seeking to retain his seat. Labour won the ward last year, but the Lib Dems retained the seat in 2010 (the only BILLD seat retained in that cycle) and the 2011 campaign was disrupted by the death of the then incumbent Councillor whose seat was up that year, so the contest may be close.

Labour and UKIP (re-launched in Slough this year) are contesting all 14 seats. The Conservatives have 11 candidates, as they are not splitting the anti-Labour vote for the three non Tory opposition councillors seeking re-election. There are four LibDem candidates as well as their BILLD ally in Britwell. There are three Independent nominees (including Pervez Choudhry). There are a total of 47 candidates for the 14 seats (an average of 3.36 candidates per seat).

The never dull caravan of Slough local politics rolls on.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Gary J on April 29, 2012, 06:42:25 pm
Slight correction on the seats up this year. I totalled 15 in the long post because one of the Labour Councillors elected in 2008 was returned in a two seat election, in Central ward, with the extra seat being to fill the vacancy caused by a Conservative councillor disqualified for electoral corruption. The four year term, up this year, was won by Pervez Choudhry.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: joevsimp on May 01, 2012, 02:11:16 am
Ward name map (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oxford_wards_OSM.svg)

Of the four remaining wards to the NW, Wolvercote (the most northerly) is the most vulnerable on paper. To the Tories. Which could actually happen if there is a mini-collapse in the LD vote and the Tory vote holds.

The two directly below that, Summertown and St Margarets, will never fall. If anything, the LD voters of those wards are the most likely in Oxford to support coalition policies.

The final ward, North, just above the Carfax-Holywell pairing, looks quite safe on paper, however, Sushilla Dhall is contesting it for the Greens. She's a pretty big hitter for the LDs locally: she was Councillor for Carfax ward; she polled very well in this ward back in 2004; and contested a general election in Oxford in 2010. She'll be coming from a low base of 14%, but there's a good number of students in that ward, so its possible.

you can spend 5 minutes in Summertown (on a bicycle of course) and know that its a Lib Dem area, but as you say, the kind of more centrist liberal lib dems

any chance of carfax and Holywell being regained by the Greens?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 01, 2012, 06:20:56 am
Quick update on Glasgow

Glasgow First do not appear to be making much of an impact. Their sitting councillors are however hoping that their incumbency will help them over the line. David Meickle, the lone Tory (who should be re-elected) has pretty much confirmed that he will be looking at an alliance with the SNP. The Greens have indicated the same thing. The Tories are concentrating on trying to get Meickle and two others over the line. The Greens are confident that they will hold on to most of the seats they are defending.

The big battle is between Labour and the SNP with Salmond visiting the city at the weekend (and shaking hands with a certain bemused forum Tory) While Labour seem dejected as if in the last days of Rome, the SNP are suprisingly cautious. There is still talk of them forming a majority administration which I would like to dismiss, but it comes from the same sources that whispered 'landslide' last year.

It should be assumed though, that as long as Labour don't hold a majority of seats then they are out of office for the first time since 1980. The smaller parties seem set on forming a coalition to keep Labour out which given the shenanigans of the last council and the threats made within, makes sense. The same is true of Glasgow First, should they return any councillors.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Andrea on May 01, 2012, 06:34:07 am
Thanks for the detailed report on various authorities.


The interesting thing if SNP win Glasgow is who will be the council leader. The current group leader is the weakest point of their campaign. She already mentioned that she may not even run when SNP will elect their new group leader after the election.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 01, 2012, 07:48:22 am
For some reason YouGov have done a local elections poll of Wales:

Labour 48%, Tories 17%, Independents 15%, Plaid 14%, LibDems 17%


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 01, 2012, 12:20:49 pm
A UKIP candidate in Sheffield has been suspended by the party over a blog post he made about Norwegian mass murderer Anders Breivik's "manifesto".

The UKIP statement is at http://www.ukipsheffield.co.uk/2012/05/suspension-of-candidate/
and for more on the case and the candidate in question (who, shall we say, has a bit of form) including the text of the post in question, there's a thread on the Sheffield Forum:
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?t=981944


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 01, 2012, 12:25:55 pm
There are a couple of posts about the local elections in Bradford on the Guardian's Northerner.  I'm not expecting a particularly positive reaction to them.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/the-northerner/2012/may/01/respect-george-galloway-bradford-labour-local-elections
and
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/the-northerner/2012/may/01/bradford-elections-george-galloway-respect-labour


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: mileslunn on May 01, 2012, 04:15:06 pm
What are the BNP polling numbers looking like?  I heard they are down which is surprising as usually extremist parties tend to do best during bad economic times rather than good ones.  Is this true?  And did they have any bad publicity to cause it as certainly every time they are in the news they look bad and may make some think twice about going for them. 


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 01, 2012, 04:39:22 pm
What are the BNP polling numbers looking like?  I heard they are down which is surprising as usually extremist parties tend to do best during bad economic times rather than good ones.  Is this true?  And did they have any bad publicity to cause it as certainly every time they are in the news they look bad and may make some think twice about going for them. 

They're down, yeah. They've been plagued by infighting since 2010 when Nick Griffin failed to get elected and they lost every council seat in Barking, their strongest council, and then they were trashed, across the country, last year as well. They lost their one London Assembly Member (he became an independent) after a pretty slimy leadership election and Griffin announced he's going in 2013. They're apparently drowning in debt as well.

Catalyse that with a lot of their working class voters going back to Labour as they realise that the Tories were everything everyone thought they'd be. The far-right never really has much success when the Tories are in government, look at the NF in the 80s.

The far-right's gone back into its box, for now, their councillor base is getting slaughtered and it's doubtful they'll even win their EU seats again in 2014.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: mileslunn on May 01, 2012, 04:48:30 pm
What are the BNP polling numbers looking like?  I heard they are down which is surprising as usually extremist parties tend to do best during bad economic times rather than good ones.  Is this true?  And did they have any bad publicity to cause it as certainly every time they are in the news they look bad and may make some think twice about going for them. 

They're down, yeah. They've been plagued by infighting since 2010 when Nick Griffin failed to get elected and they lost every council seat in Barking, their strongest council, and then they were trashed, across the country, last year as well. They lost their one London Assembly Member (he became an independent) after a pretty slimy leadership election and Griffin announced he's going in 2013. They're apparently drowning in debt as well.

Catalyse that with a lot of their working class voters going back to Labour as they realise that the Tories were everything everyone thought they'd be. The far-right never really has much success when the Tories are in government, look at the NF in the 80s.

The far-right's gone back into its box, for now, their councillor base is getting slaughtered and it's doubtful they'll even win their EU seats again in 2014.

Good to see.  It seems though throughout much of continental Europe the far right is on the rise, although true they often go in cycles.  Unfortunately, I think it only a matter of time before the BNP makes a comeback.  In every European country there is at least 10% who are outright racist and another 30-50% who are somewhat prejudiced towards people different than them so it is not as though they don't have a large pool of potential voters.  Off course immigration is not the only issue people care about and they also want competent leaders too.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 01, 2012, 05:05:45 pm
What are the BNP polling numbers looking like?  I heard they are down which is surprising as usually extremist parties tend to do best during bad economic times rather than good ones.  Is this true?  And did they have any bad publicity to cause it as certainly every time they are in the news they look bad and may make some think twice about going for them. 

They're down, yeah. They've been plagued by infighting since 2010 when Nick Griffin failed to get elected and they lost every council seat in Barking, their strongest council, and then they were trashed, across the country, last year as well. They lost their one London Assembly Member (he became an independent) after a pretty slimy leadership election and Griffin announced he's going in 2013. They're apparently drowning in debt as well.

Catalyse that with a lot of their working class voters going back to Labour as they realise that the Tories were everything everyone thought they'd be. The far-right never really has much success when the Tories are in government, look at the NF in the 80s.

The far-right's gone back into its box, for now, their councillor base is getting slaughtered and it's doubtful they'll even win their EU seats again in 2014.

Good to see.  It seems though throughout much of continental Europe the far right is on the rise, although true they often go in cycles.  Unfortunately, I think it only a matter of time before the BNP makes a comeback.  In every European country there is at least 10% who are outright racist and another 30-50% who are somewhat prejudiced towards people different than them so it is not as though they don't have a large pool of potential voters.  Off course immigration is not the only issue people care about and they also want competent leaders too.

We have, of course, had some good polling for UKIP if you want to count them as far-right (which is extremely tenuous, of course).


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 01, 2012, 06:08:00 pm
They're not far-right, but they're right-wing populists/an anti-immigration vote similar to many - not all, mind - of what are being voted in across Europe at the moment.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 02, 2012, 07:13:48 am
A suprisingly bold statement from Labour's leader in Glasgow, Gordon Matheson who has publically annouced that he expects Labour to retain outright control.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 02, 2012, 07:44:10 am
YouGov Welsh poll:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-17906118

Topline voting intention figures are as follows:

Westminster (change since 2010 GE): CON 23% (-3), LAB 50% (+14), LD 7% (-13), PC 12%(+1)
Welsh Assembly constituency (change since 2011): CON 19% (-6), LAB 48% (+6), LD 7% (-4), PC 18% (-1)
Welsh Assembly regional (change since 2011): CON 13% (-10), LAB 33% (-4), LD 9% (+1), PC 22% (+4)
Local elections (change since 2008): CON 17% (+1), LAB 48% (+21); LD 7% (-6); PC 14% (-3); Independents and Others 15% (-12)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 02, 2012, 08:08:39 am
Welsh Assembly regional (change since 2011): CON 13% (-10), LAB 33% (-4), LD 9% (+1), PC 22% (+4)

UKIP 10% (+5), GRN 9% (+6), OTH 3% (-4).


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 02:32:32 am
Just voted.
Abdul Khayum (Lab)
Against elected mayor


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 03, 2012, 06:08:44 am
1. Conservative
2. SNP
3. SNP
4. Liberal Democrat

Not marked; 3 Labour candidates, 2 Independents and a Christian.

It's the first time I've ever voted for a Liberal Democrat.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 03, 2012, 07:02:53 am
Just voted (first time).

TUSC
Green
Labour (I put the cross next to the long-serving 'establishment' man, ftr)

Turnout seems to be (quite predictably) pathetic. No one else entered the polling station for the entire five minutes or so I was in and around it. When the workers saw that I was 18, they acted as if Her Majesty had visited - "You're 18????". :P


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 03, 2012, 10:07:29 am
If the Tory gets in in Hamilton North and East this year I may have to find a corner to cry in.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 10:11:32 am
Just got back from voting, my first time. One of the loudspeaker vans flew past me before for Labour, we haven't had them round here in literally years.

The polling station was dead, saw one other voter just leaving as I went in and the poll workers looked beyond miserable.

Quite a few people are going out to vote in my sixth form though - buzz of the 'first time' I suppose.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 11:15:59 am
What are we predicting? I'm assuming Labour'll underperform, so i'm not willing to say any more than 400-500 gains. My gut tells me the Tories will lose more than the LibDems simply because they have further to fall on 2008, but the LibDems will have another dire night considering there's load've northern councils up again, so plenty of places they'll lose almost by default.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 03, 2012, 11:23:27 am
What are we predicting? I'm assuming Labour'll underperform, so i'm not willing to say any more than 400-500 gains. My gut tells me the Tories will lose more than the LibDems simply because they have further to fall on 2008, but the LibDems will have another dire night considering there's load've northern councils up again, so plenty of places they'll lose almost by default.

I can't predict anything at this stage. 2011 was a surprise because not only did Labour underperform, but the Tories ended up making gains. This time round I have a feeling that the Lib Dems will not fall as hard as people would think. I think the Tories will have a rough night but I can take comfort that this far into Blair's premiership Labour lost nearly 600 councillors and won the GE by a landslide a year later.

Scotland is even more difficult to predict.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 11:29:29 am
What are we predicting? I'm assuming Labour'll underperform, so i'm not willing to say any more than 400-500 gains. My gut tells me the Tories will lose more than the LibDems simply because they have further to fall on 2008, but the LibDems will have another dire night considering there's load've northern councils up again, so plenty of places they'll lose almost by default.

I can't predict anything at this stage. 2011 was a surprise because not only did Labour underperform, but the Tories ended up making gains. This time round I have a feeling that the Lib Dems will not fall as hard as people would think. I think the Tories will have a rough night but I can take comfort that this far into Blair's premiership Labour lost nearly 600 councillors and won the GE by a landslide a year later.

Scotland is even more difficult to predict.

Conventional wisdom for Scotland tells me that Labour and the Tories will stay round and about the same level (a handful of loses) and most LibDem councillors will become SNP councillors. Not willing to give any figures, don't know Scottish politics well enough.

Wales, will of course, give Llafur an incredible night.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 11:53:00 am
No election in Felin and not much sign of one in Caernarfon. But more election activity in Bangor than I've ever seen before. There are some very interesting contests in that little city today, not that it makes any sense to make predictions because local politics in this little corner of the world is what it is.

Parochial folly aside, most local authorities in Wales could see a change in administration tonight/tomorrow, and that's including the two big cities.  Unless something very odd happens Labour will win a majority in Swansea and probably quite a large one. Cardiff is less predictable, but it might produce another of its trademark hilarious results (we shall see).

Elsewhere, the big prize up tonight is Brum.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: joevsimp on May 03, 2012, 12:49:22 pm
Just voted (first time).

TUSC
Green
Labour (I put the cross next to the long-serving 'establishment' man, ftr)

Turnout seems to be (quite predictably) pathetic. No one else entered the polling station for the entire five minutes or so I was in and around it. When the workers saw that I was 18, they acted as if Her Majesty had visited - "You're 18????". :P

yeah, they do that, I didn't have the heart to tell them I was spoiling my paper when I voted the first time


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 01:12:38 pm
Rugby is an odd town. Any predictions for there?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 01:17:10 pm
What are we predicting? I'm assuming Labour'll underperform, so i'm not willing to say any more than 400-500 gains. My gut tells me the Tories will lose more than the LibDems simply because they have further to fall on 2008, but the LibDems will have another dire night considering there's load've northern councils up again, so plenty of places they'll lose almost by default.

A hopeless cause, I know, but I do wish people used a better way of measuring the results than councillors gained/lost.  The variation in ward size in the UK is large enough that that can be misleading.  (The fact I live in one of the bigger ones might have something to do with my views on this...)

Also worth saying that Labour's performance in last year's English locals wasn't that bad, really.  (Scotland, of course, was a different matter and affected the perception of things a lot.)  They did well in some areas (most of the Mets, for example) and not so well in others; overall I think it was about in line with their poll rating at the time.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 03, 2012, 01:41:51 pm
Back from work and voting.  My long week in work is over, now time to relax.

Again, the polling station was pretty dead (only one other voter while I was there), and this is one of Bolton's biggest polling districts.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 01:43:15 pm
One issue is that the media have a bit of a deluded idea as to what swing areas are actually like and which areas are actually swing areas...


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 04:07:08 pm
Polls have closed.


Just crushing some numbers for my own council (Wirral), it should be a Labour gain tonight.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 03, 2012, 04:24:57 pm
Crunching is the term, I believe. ;)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 03, 2012, 04:34:47 pm
A report from Bradford by Al's favorite journalist:

Quote
Things are getting testy in Bradford, where George Galloway's Respect party is challenging the political establishment in 12 out of the 30 wards up for grabs. Salma Yaqoob, leader of Respect, has just tweeted that her brother's car was attacked by "Labour supporters" in the city this afternoon.

I have just spoken to her brother, Farrukh Haroon, who has been helping the Respect campaign. The 36-year-old says he was outside the Iqra school polling station in the Manningham area of the city – a ward Respect is confident of winning from Labour – when the alleged attack happened.

Haroon says he and his cousin had been driving up and down the Drummond Road with a megaphone, shouting Respect slogans "and saying stuff about Labour's support for the war" when they attracted the attention of some Labour supporters outside the primary school. He claims that they "attacked" the car, yanking off a wing mirror and pulling the keys from the ignition, snapping them into three pieces. Two children in the back of Haroon's car were "terrified", he says, and one was so frightened he jumped out of the car and tried to run away.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 04:36:01 pm
Crunching is the term, I believe. ;)

Typo. :P


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 04:44:40 pm
Early rumours suggest No to mayor in Birmingham; hopefully others will follow.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on May 03, 2012, 04:47:31 pm
Voted in Havering today - not a huge amount of activity at my polling station at what should have been a busy time.

Poor weather today has probably hit turnout.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 04:47:49 pm
Early rumours suggest No to mayor in Birmingham; hopefully others will follow.

The thought of Liam Byrne or Salma Yaqoob or whoever as my mayor would encourage me to vote no as well.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 04:58:46 pm
http://news.sky.com/home/interactive-graphics/elections-2012
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/vote2012/council/gb.stm

All the usual stuff, we know the routine, i'm sure. Check council websites for wards, etc, etc.

BBC's programme starts at 23:35 after Question Time, I think Sky's already got their Decision 2012 programme on.

Do we get London Assembly results tonight by the way or is that tomorrow as well?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 05:01:44 pm
Sunderland are declaring atm according to Twitter. Fast, even for them.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 05:04:01 pm
This guy is tweeting from the Bradford count:
http://twitter.com/#!/UmarOnline

He seems to think Respect are doing well in Great Horton and Bradford Moor (both outside the West constituency).


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 05:08:43 pm
Sunderland are declaring atm according to Twitter. Fast, even for them.

Labour have apparently gained Barnes ward in Sunderland, which the Tories won narrowly last year.

Edit: and here are the figures: Barnes: Rebecca Atkinson (Lab) 2041; Gouilnara Dixon (Lib) 150; Tony Morrissey (Sitting Con councillor) 1486.  Not even close.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 05:11:06 pm
Slightly OT: Discussing Francois Hollande on Question Time. All of them except the Welsh guy (assuming he's Plaid) and Harriet Harman seem to despise him. Idiots. Even Ming Campbell's slamming him. IDS and some guy from Dragon's Den calling him a big spending socialist.

Why not just call him a red under the bed and get it over with?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 05:15:36 pm
A Cambridge Green councillor defected to Labour this morning.

Labour +1.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 05:27:29 pm
Edit: and here are the figures: Barnes: Rebecca Atkinson (Lab) 2041; Gouilnara Dixon (Lib) 150; Tony Morrissey (Sitting Con councillor) 1486.  Not even close.

Now that's nice news to see when you log in...


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 05:29:37 pm
Early results i'm reading about suggesting huge swings away from the ConDems.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Pilchard on May 03, 2012, 05:32:21 pm
A Cambridge Green councillor defected to Labour this morning.

Labour +1.

Cambridge's other Green councillor (in the same ward) is stepping down at this election and Labour will be hoping to do well there. There's a good chance the Lib Dems lose their majority tonight, but even with the defection this morning Labour would need a very good night to become the largest party.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 05:32:42 pm
Lib Dems wiped out in Sunderland.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 05:34:25 pm
Labour just carried Linacre ward in Sefton with 92% of the vote! :O


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 03, 2012, 05:35:16 pm
Linacre ward is in Bootle, so the smiley ain't necessary.

Sunderland has finished counting.  Well done to them.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 05:35:43 pm
Linacre ward is in Bootle, so the smiley ain't necessary.


I know.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 05:38:58 pm
Labour about a hundred votes off gaining Fulwell. Comedy percentages in the Red Belt.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 05:45:27 pm
Rumours that Manchester is a redwash again.

Turnout seems to be bad in many places, though of course it was high last year and that's what it's being compared with.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 03, 2012, 05:46:25 pm
Early rumours suggest No to mayor in Birmingham; hopefully others will follow.
Excellent news.

Hope you're all staying up 'til 4? ;)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 03, 2012, 05:46:37 pm
I'm eagerly awaiting the Kirkdale result.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 05:47:17 pm
Our first result in:

Sunderland - Labour hold
64 (+8)
8 (-6)
0 (-1)

Lab-Con-Lib


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 05:48:28 pm
15 minutes in and Jeremy Vine hasn't started rapping yet. :(


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 03, 2012, 05:54:06 pm
LOL

Actually found myself glad they've kept it simple earlier just remembering that crap.

Also :D at the Sunderland result.

The graphics/trend shown a few moments ago on regional gains/losses by parties was great. Shown what many were arguing last year - gains from the Liberals (in the South) hidden Tory losses.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 03, 2012, 05:56:21 pm
Labour may have taken control of Plymouth.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 05:56:29 pm
LOL

Actually found myself glad they've kept it simple earlier just remembering that crap.

Also :D at the Sunderland result.

The graphics/trend shown a few moments ago on regional gains/losses by parties was great. Shown what many were arguing last year - gains from the Liberals (in the South) hidden Tory losses.

There were some bizarre results last year down south. WTF went on in Eastleigh? Massive Liberal gains.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 06:07:20 pm
Sayeedi Warsi just implied that the BNP and UKIP are in cahoots together because there's a correlation between UKIP fielding more candidates and BNP fielding less.

She really is crazy.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 06:08:28 pm
Curious rumours from Bradford, with Labour apparently having won the postal votes in City and Manningham, so much less promising for Respect than earlier.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 06:12:07 pm
Tories hold Castle Point, no change in seats.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 06:12:36 pm
The People's Republic of Knowsley is now ALL Labour councillors.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 06:13:27 pm
lol


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 03, 2012, 06:20:11 pm
800 to 1000 gains according to Warsi lolz.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 03, 2012, 06:20:51 pm
800 to 1000 gains according to Warsi lolz.

....


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 06:21:00 pm
Labour have made huge gains in Nuneaton. And... er... the Greens have picked up a seat on the eternally Tory side of town.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 06:22:03 pm
Apparently Labour have won Charlemont with Grove Vale on Sandwell MBC, which was the one ward there they didn't win last year.  So maybe another redwash on the cards.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 06:24:48 pm
LibDems are briefing that they've done badly in Cardiff and Wrexham.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 06:28:40 pm
Some results are in in Rotherham, the first I've seen in Yorkshire.  Labour have comfortably won the two wards the BNP won in 2008 (Maltby and Brinsworth & Catcliffe) and have won Hellaby from the Tories (they did this last year as well).  But the Tories have held Sitwell so no redwash there.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 06:30:45 pm
Leader of Wrexham Council reported to have lost his seat. Which would be remarkable if true; he polled over 80% in 2008.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 03, 2012, 06:33:21 pm
I'd class a ward showing Con 43%, Lab 35%, UKIP 21% last year to be a safe Tory.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 03, 2012, 06:35:20 pm
Leader of Wrexham Council reported to have lost his seat. Which would be remarkable if true; he polled over 80% in 2008.

hahahahahahahahahaha....


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 03, 2012, 06:36:08 pm
LOL that's amazing.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 06:41:03 pm
Talk of 70% for Joe Anderson in Liverpool! :D


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 06:44:25 pm
Lib Dems have apparently conceded to Respect in Bradford Moor.  (Via Umar Farooq on Twitter again.)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 03, 2012, 06:45:50 pm
BBC early prediction: Con 34% Lab 40% Lib 13%


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 06:46:11 pm
Labour just gained Wirral. First time since 2000.

(http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2009/05/woo-hoo.jpg)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 03, 2012, 06:47:49 pm
Lab gain Great Yarmouth.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 06:47:57 pm
Leader of Cardiff City Council seems to be in trouble.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 06:48:44 pm
Ind gain from Lab (elected as Con) in Rotherham, Anston and Woodsetts.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 06:50:33 pm
Tories may have lost their majorities in Monmouth and the Vale of Glamorgan. Just rumours, mind. The former would be a huge blow.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 06:56:22 pm
Looks as if Bradford may have voted for a Mayor; that could be "interesting".


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 06:57:20 pm
Lab gain Chipping Norton :) :)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 06:58:55 pm
Lab gain Chipping Norton :) :)

hahahahaha


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 03, 2012, 06:59:14 pm
Good to see Greens are gaining alongside Labour so far.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 03, 2012, 07:03:56 pm
Any news on Coventry yet?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 07:07:50 pm
Trident on Vote UK says Labour have taken control of Sefton for the first time ever.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 07:08:00 pm
Labour seem set for a majority on Duuuudlooooyyiiii council.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 07:09:16 pm
The Bradford Spring seems to be regaining momentum:

Quote
Umar Farooq ‏ @UmarOnline

Respect expecting to win 7-10 seats in Bradford. Lab council leader Ian Greenwood says Little Horton is 'too close to call' #atthecount


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 07:12:34 pm
Labour gain Birmingham.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 07:12:55 pm
Lab gain Penistone West, Barnsley MBC, majority 52.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 07:13:55 pm
Labour gain Sutton Vesey, Birmingham!!!!!


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 07:16:49 pm
Labour gain Sutton Vesey, Birmingham!!!!!

Yeah, that's pretty huge. Also, a great example of a frequent candidate hitting the jackpot.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 07:17:03 pm
Labour haven't a known an election night like this since... I dunno...


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 07:19:26 pm
Second reported gain in Bradford for Respect: Bowling & Barkerend (from Con).


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 07:23:26 pm
Cannock and Carlisle have Labour majorities; not sure if that's been mentioned yet.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 07:25:15 pm
No to mayor in Nottingham.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 07:26:01 pm
A Plaid majority likely in Ceredigion; an excellent result for them given the ghastly Westminster result and poor Assembly one.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 07:26:38 pm
Nigel Dawkins goes down in Bournville.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 07:29:23 pm
Early results in Caerphilly are strikingly good for Labour.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 07:30:15 pm
Lab gain Blundellsands, Sefton.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 07:31:59 pm
Labour gain Sutton Vesey, Birmingham!!!!!

Another "not even close" moment.

Lab 3,231
Con 2,426
Green 285
LD 241


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Pilchard on May 03, 2012, 07:33:36 pm
Peterborough is all in, Conservative hold.

Was Con 35, Peterborough Independents 9, Lab 6, Liberal 3, Lib Dem 3, English Democrats 1
Now Con 32 (-3), Peterborough Independents 7 (-2), Lab 11 (+5), Liberal 3 (nc), Lib Dem 4 (+1), English Democrats 0 (-1)

Labour gained 2 from Conservatives (Paston and Orton Longueville), 2 from the independent group who had recently defected from the Tories (Fletton and Woodston, Bretton North) and 1 from English Democrats (who were not contesting their seat in East). Liberal Democrats gained Werrington South from the Conservatives.

So far in Cambridge, Lib Dems have lost East Chesterton to Labour but have held 3 other wards. Labour have held 1. Lib Dems may hang on to their majority after all.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 07:33:57 pm
Labour gain Sutton Vesey, Birmingham!!!!!

Another "not even close" moment.

Lab 3,231
Con 2,426
Green 285
LD 241

Fycking hell.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 07:36:27 pm
Labour have made large gains in Wrexham and are now the largest group with 23 seats (more than double the result in 2008). Independents have basically held their ground, as have the Tories. Plaid wiped out and big LibDem losses.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 07:38:19 pm
Remarkable news from Merthyr: according to the BBC Jeff Edwards (Council Leader and longtime fixture of Independent politics in the Valleys) has lost his seat.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 07:39:55 pm
Early results in Caerphilly are strikingly good for Labour.

Rumours that the Leader of the Council has lost his seat (not a good night for people in that post, is it?) along with Ron Davies.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 07:40:18 pm
Sadeeq and Sayeeda were arguing for about 2 hours on BBC, now they've hopped over to Sky together. Jesus.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 03, 2012, 07:44:07 pm
Huge Labour gains in Bury.  Labour gained all three Lib Dem seats in Prestwich and seven seats from the Conservatives in the rest of the borough.  The Tories won only Pilkington Park in Whitefield, Church in Bury and North Manor; they lost Tottington.  New council is Lab 36 (+10) C 13 (-7) LD 2 (-3).

Bolton had the same results as last year.  New council is Lab 41 (+6) C 14 (-4) LD 3 (-2).


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 03, 2012, 07:44:33 pm
Eastleigh. 40-2 to the Libs. Bizarre place.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 03, 2012, 07:55:01 pm
Whenever the Times were doing articles with councils to watch, they included Eastleigh with the comment "UKIP candidates in Chris Huhne's constituency".  Pointless.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 03, 2012, 07:55:36 pm
Sounds like a Lab Gain in Southampton.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 03, 2012, 08:00:48 pm
Two more big Labour gains: Queen Edith's ward in Cambridge and Harington ward in Sefton (posh bit of Formby).


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 08:16:31 pm
Labour gain Blaenau Gwent. I'm sure that this news will come as a great shock to all.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Pilchard on May 03, 2012, 08:22:55 pm
Two more big Labour gains: Queen Edith's ward in Cambridge and Harington ward in Sefton (posh bit of Formby).

That's a big one, Labour haven't held any seats in Queen Edith's at all since it was created in 1976 and haven't done better than 3rd since 1995. It's a Labour Co-op candidate as well.

Final result LD 21 (-4) Lab 19 (+4) Con 1 (+1) Ind 1 (nc) Green 0 (-1), Lib Dems lose majority but have half of the seats.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 08:34:41 pm
Labour gain Merthyr Tydfil. But a bizarre detail: a seat for UKIP in Penydarren. Candidate in question is yet another former member of Forward Wales and has run in Westminster and Assembly elections before and was an incumbent councillor (elected as an Indy).


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 03, 2012, 08:56:40 pm
Reports on Twitter that the Lib Dems have held Llandaff ward (Cardiff) with increased majorities.  As one of the Lib Dem councillors for Llandaff is a good friend of mine from the quiz circuit, I am very happy :D


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 09:00:18 pm
Would be pretty funny if they held Llandaff while losing certain other wards.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 09:01:09 pm
LibDems wiped out in Merthyr. And another shutout in Manchester, it seems.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 03, 2012, 09:03:45 pm
Another Lib Dem shutout in Rochdale.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 03, 2012, 09:14:09 pm
BBC projected national share (with changes from last year): Lab 39% (+3%) Con 31% (-4%) Lib 16% (n/c) Oth 14% (+1%).


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 03, 2012, 09:30:09 pm
No vote in Manc as well. :)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 03, 2012, 09:39:29 pm
Anyways, time to call it a night.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 03, 2012, 09:42:46 pm
Hope you caught Dimbleby saying (quoting Ken) bastards.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: joevsimp on May 04, 2012, 01:00:08 am
just been looking at the damage in manchester in more depth.


In Hulme, which was briefly held by the greens a few years back the Lib Dems rad their candidate as "Liberal Democrats - For a Greener Britain"

cheeky buggers, didn't stop them coming last though, not that the actual greens were close to regaining it


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 04, 2012, 01:02:16 am
Better clarify what happened in Bradford, as the early reports were all over the place.

Respect won City, Manningham, Heaton, Bradford Moor and Little Horton, the last by 17 votes, defeating the Labour leader of the Council Ian Greenwood.  Bradford Moor is a gain from LD and Heaton from Con, the others from Labour.  Labour won Bowling & Barkerend.

Elsewhere in the city, the Lib Dems seem to have done OK, holding Eccleshill, which they lost last year, and coming much closer to holding Baildon.  The deselected Tory held Craven.  The council is Lab 45, Con 24, LD 8, Respect 5, Green 3, various Independents 5.

Also Bradford voted against a mayor after all, 55.1% to 44.9%.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 04, 2012, 01:52:38 am
Looks like Labour majorities in Cardiff, Swansea and Newport.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 04, 2012, 02:10:06 am
And it seems that the defeat of Ron Davies can also be filed under 'actually, not close at all'.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 04, 2012, 03:34:18 am
Here comes round 2. Counting underway in Scotland

Don't forget a US style 'real time' count for London Mayor

http://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/results-and-past-elections/live-results-2012?contest=23


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on May 04, 2012, 05:15:47 am
When do we have Scottish results?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 04, 2012, 05:17:58 am
They are staring to come in. Very early still and a mixed bag. For example; SNP knocked off two Labour councillors in Stirling, but Labour have taken a seat from the Lib Dems and the SNP in Fife.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 04, 2012, 05:28:36 am
Labour will win Glasgow.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on May 04, 2012, 05:30:18 am
Great night all around, then :) (Now, if only those london polls were to be as horribly wrong as those Alberta ones,...)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 04, 2012, 06:01:10 am
First three Sheffield results are in: easy Labour holds in Manor Castle, Richmond and Shiregreen & Brightside.  No surprises there, but note UKIP second in all three.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 04, 2012, 06:07:12 am
Inverclyde almost in

So far

LAB 8 (+1)
SNP 4
CON 1
LIB 1 (-1)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Pilchard on May 04, 2012, 06:08:15 am
Labour are back in Huntingdonshire after taking Huntingdon North from the Conservatives. UKIP have taken Ramsey from the Tories, which means they now hold all 3 seats in that ward as well as its county councillor. Conservatives also gained Warboys and Bury from the Lib Dems.

In South Cambridgeshire, Labour have held on to their only seat on the council in Bassingbourn. Telegraph columnist and former presenter of 'One Man and his Dog' Robin Page is back on the council as an independent after defeating the Lib Dem by 2 votes. A former district councillor from 73-06, he's been a perennial candidate for general and European elections for the Referendum Party, UKIP and UK First. There's a rather entertaining election leaflet of his here: electionleaflets.org/leaflets/4670/


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 04, 2012, 06:09:24 am
Labour have gained West Ecclesfield from the Lib Dems.  This was the narrowest of the Labour gains in Sheffield in 2011.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 04, 2012, 06:21:57 am
Stirling now complete

SNP 9 (+2)
LAB 8
CON 4
GRN 1 (+1)
LIB 0 (-3)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Pilchard on May 04, 2012, 06:41:50 am
All done in Cambridgeshire:

Huntingdonshire: Con 39 (-2) Lib Dem 7 (-1) UKIP 3 (+1) Ind 2 (+1) Lab 1 (+1). Con Hold
South Cambs: Con 33 (+1) Lib Dem 16 (-2) Ind 7 (+1) Lab 1 (nc). Con Hold

Some close results in S Cambs, Conservatives gained Linton from the Lib Dems by just 1 vote, while Robin Page gained Haslingfield from the Lib Dems by 2 votes.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 04, 2012, 06:43:32 am
Lab gains so far in Sheffield:

Beauchief & Greenhill (this was LD in 2011)
Broomhill
East Ecclesfield
Mosborough
Hillsborough
Nether Edge
West Ecclesfield

while the Lib Dems have held Graves Park and Stannington and the Greens have held Central.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 04, 2012, 06:44:57 am
Glasgow First get a councillor in Govan; rest split 2 to Labour and one to the SNP.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 04, 2012, 06:52:23 am
My old Hamilton North and East ward is in. No change; 2 LAB, 1 SNP. Sadly Barry Douglas has been ousted as SNP councillor and replaced with Lynn Adams who likley won on the basis that her name came first on the ballot paper.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 04, 2012, 06:58:18 am
Gwynedd does what Gwynedd does best and provides a bit of a surreal result. Results last time: Plaid 35, Independent 18, Llais Gwynedd 12, LDem 5, Labour 4

Results this time: Plaid 37, Independent 18, Llais Gwynedd 13, Labour 4, LDem 2

And what's so surreal about that? The massive turnover in seats between the two elections, despite the overal numbers being so stable. Anyway, the big story is the failure of Plaid's attempt to destroy Llais. They're here to stay, it seems. So I'll just drone on about Arfon for a bit. Don't think much changed in Caernarfon, as I'd expected. In Bangor the big story was the success of various Local Candidate For Local People Independents (one of which was elected in 2008 as a LibDem) who gained a seat off Plaid in Upper Bangor, held Hirael (see earlier), and gained two seats in Maes-G, one off Labour and one of a different Independent. Plaid, meanwhile, have gained a seat in Upper Bangor off the LibDems, while Labour gained the infamous Deiniol ward off Plaid. In the old slate communities things went pretty badly for Plaid and its possible that they were lucky to have so many seats there uncontested (and functionally unconotested in one case where the only opponent - who still mananged a respectable poll - was from the SLP). They lost Deiniolen (and by miles) to an Independent and lost Bethel to Labour (and that wasn't close either). The longtime Labour incumbent in Tregarth & Mynydd Llandygai somehow mananged to win again, this time by four votes (I think it was two in 2008). Tregarth is much larger than Mynydd Llandygai and is the Plaid bit. The Independent in Talysarn held off a very still challenge from Llais.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 04, 2012, 06:59:33 am
Dave Nellist has lost his seat. :(


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 04, 2012, 07:20:07 am
Warsi just used the term "National Government". :D


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 04, 2012, 07:25:11 am
Sheffield is all in.

On the night Lab 21, LD 6, Green 1.  Compared with 2008 that's Lab +10, LD -10.  The numbers of seats won are the same as last year, but two wards had different results.  Council now Lab 59, LD 23, Green 2.

Lab gain from LD:
Beauchief & Greenhill
Broomhill
East Ecclesfield
Hillsborough
Mosborough
Nether Edge
Stocksbridge & Upper Don
Walkley
West Ecclesfield
plus Gleadless Valley on a 2008 comparison (defection)

LD hold:
Crookes
Dore & Totley
Ecclesall
Fulwood
Graves Park
Stannington

Green hold:
Central

Labour hold:
everywhere else


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 04, 2012, 07:39:00 am
Interesting. So have Labour fell back from last year? They've won Beauchief & Greenhill, but lost Crookes, and I hadn't banked on the Liberal holding as well, given the national swing to Labour since May '11 and the tiny leads they had last year.

Although, saying that, I suppose the Liberals have stagnated on their low since last May, whereas the Tories have clearly shed a noticeable amount of their vote, certainly the BBC projected national vote share and their swings seem to bare this out. Maybe Labour have maxed out their possible gains from the Liberal vote?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 04, 2012, 08:01:17 am
Bristol vote yes.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 04, 2012, 08:07:50 am
Good news for Labour in Renfrewshire; they have taken overall control.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 04, 2012, 08:14:32 am
Interesting. So have Labour fell back from last year? They've won Beauchief & Greenhill, but lost Crookes, and I hadn't banked on the Liberal holding as well, given the national swing to Labour since May '11 and the tiny leads they had last year.

Although, saying that, I suppose the Liberals have stagnated on their low since last May, whereas the Tories have clearly shed a noticeable amount of their vote, certainly the BBC projected national vote share and their swings seem to bare this out. Maybe Labour have maxed out their possible gains from the Liberal vote?

Yes, I don't think the LDs have done much, if at all, worse against Labour than last year.  Compared to 2011 it's the Tories who are suffering, not that that affects much in Sheffield, though they had some embarrassing results like coming fourth in Ecclesall.

As for Crookes, there is an obvious explanation which I don't like very much, but we all know it happens.  Alternatively, it was an extremely good result for Labour last year, and maybe what happened this year is partly a correction of that.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 04, 2012, 08:17:54 am
Calderdale

Lab 9 (+7), LD 3 (-3), Con 5 (-3), BNP 0 (-1) (comparisons with 2008 election)

A bit of a mixed bag. Good LD result in Calder, but bad in Warley.

Lab gain:
Brighouse
Illingworth & Mixenden
Luddendenfoot
Park
Sowerby Bridge
Todmorden
Warley

LD held Calder (council leader's seat) and Elland, and regained the defector's seat in Greetland & Stainland.

Con held Rastrick.

Kirklees

Lab 12 (+5), Con 5 (-3), LD 3 (-4), Green 2 (+1), Ind 1 (+1).

Lab gain:

Dalton
Denby Dale
Dewsbury South
Dewsbury West
Golcar

Green gain:
Kirkburton

Con gain:
Lindley

Ind gain:

Holme Valley North

Compared with last year, Labour won Denby Dale and Dewsbury South and the LDs Colne Valley, all of which were Tory in 2011.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 04, 2012, 09:26:10 am
Wakefield & Newcastle vote No; Doncaster decide to retain their Mayor.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 04, 2012, 09:37:53 am
Labour doing much better than expected in Scotland. This has truely been a brilliant election.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 04, 2012, 09:52:00 am
Labour are doing well in Scotland (as are the SNP). I'll need to dissect the results as there is a regional variance in every parties support. In some parts the Lib Dems added seats for example. Though I wouldn't say it's been a brilliant election. It's been good for Labour certainly but in comparison to other midterms, is not spectacular. Both Foot and Hague made bigger gains two years in and look what happened to them! But having local representation is always good for parties, especially in the south where Labour had been wiped out.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 04, 2012, 10:06:32 am
It has been confirmed - after two recounts - that Rodney Berman (Leader of Cardiff City Council) has lost his seat. Berman is a prick, so I'm currently grinning.

But it's part of a general pattern in Wales: apparently one of the least secure jobs here is being the Leader of a council. Hilariously the leader of RCT managed to lose his seat despite Labour winning a landslide there.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 04, 2012, 10:07:38 am
No for Birmingham. Only Leeds to go now.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 04, 2012, 10:31:23 am
Edinburgh

LAB 20 (+5)
SNP 18 (+5)
CON 11
GRN 6 (+3)
LIB 3 (-13)

Bloodbath for the Lib Dems and I'm quite shocked the Tories ended up level. Very good result for the Greens of course. Will be interesting to see how this pans out in terms of a coalition. The Lib Dem in the Pentland Hills Ward was beaten by a man dressed as a penguin in first preferences. Also an 'interesting' number of ballot papers were spoiled by people writing 'TRAMS' all over them,

Dundee won by the SNP. Labour make stonking gains in Aberdeen and have first stab at forming a coalition. Glasgow still out, but Labour expected to hang on.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 04, 2012, 10:33:28 am
LIB 3 (-13)

You'd need a heart of stone not to laugh.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 04, 2012, 10:57:22 am
(http://images.icnetwork.co.uk/upl/icwales2/may2012/4/2/rodney-berman-110212342.jpg)

Quote
Mr Berman asked for a recount after missing out by 12 votes and then called for a second recount after losing by 14.

But a final count left him 51 votes adrift.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 04, 2012, 10:58:31 am
Glasgow's Labour. That's f'd up the Tory message. :D


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: joevsimp on May 04, 2012, 11:00:04 am
My dad's result is in....

Newbold and Brownsover Ward, Rugby

BRYANS James - Green Party - 155
COLES Andy - Labour Party Candidate - 649 - ELECTED
DAHMASH Yousef - The Conservative Party Candidate - 415
DUNLEAVY Lorna Beryl - Green Party lead candidate - 173
EDWARDS Claire - Labour Party Candidate - 628 - ELECTED
SMITH Bill - Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts - 145
SRIVASTAVA Ram - Labour Party Candidate - 576 - ELECTED
WALTON Martin - The Conservative Party Candidate - 467
WATTS Rachel Elizabeth - The Conservative Party Candidate - 465

Last place was not unexpected I suppose. Also, anyone else notice something....errrr....ummmm....'interesting' about these figures?


erm, Labour candidate's votes are in alphabetical order?

ah got it, yes...forgive me if I'm not totally shocked by that (I am appalled though)

on a related note, was there not a CPGB MP in the '30s name Srivastava?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 04, 2012, 11:22:28 am
Under the radar perhaps, but good results for Labour in East Lancashire; Labour majorities in both Burnley and Rossendale


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: bore on May 04, 2012, 11:31:35 am
I really shouldn't be, but I'm quite pleased that Jenny Dawe, the lib dem council leader, moved halfway across the city to what was supposed to be a safer ward and ended up losing.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 04, 2012, 12:22:09 pm
:D Thanks for sharing that.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 04, 2012, 12:30:30 pm
Labour gain Sutton Vesey, Birmingham!!!!!
:D


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Silent Hunter on May 04, 2012, 12:44:02 pm
Good all round for Labour - our likely loss in the London Mayor race is going to be the only real blip.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 04, 2012, 12:44:27 pm
The Lib Dem in the Pentland Hills Ward was beaten by a man dressed as a penguin in first preferences.
Video or it didn't happen.





Oh. You meant polled fewer votes than. :(


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 04, 2012, 12:46:21 pm
Glasgow seats by ward...

Linn - 2 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 LDem
Newlands/Auldburn - 2 Lab
Greater Pollok - 2 Lab, 2 SNP
Craigton - 2 Lab, 2 SNP
Govan - 2 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 GF
Pollokshields - 1 SNP, 1 Lab, 1 Con
Langside - 1 SNP, 1 Lab, 1 Green
Southside Central - 2 Lab, 2 SNP
Calton - 2 Lab, 1 SNP
Anderston/City - 2 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 Green
Hillhead - 2 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 Green
Partick West - 2 SNP, 1 Lab, 1 Green
Garscadden/Scotstounhill - 3 Lab, 1 SNP
Drumchapel/Anniesland - 3 Lab, 1 SNP
Maryhill/Kelvin - 2 Lab, 2 SNP
Canal - 2 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 Green
Springburn - 2 Lab, 1 SNP
East Centre - 3 Lab, 1 SNP
Shettleston - 3 Lab, 1 SNP
North East - 3 Lab, 1 SNP

Baillieston doesn't seem to be in yet or isn't on the website or something.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 04, 2012, 12:50:27 pm
Glesgie totals according to the BBC are
Labour 44 (+5)
SNP 27 (+7)
Greens 5 (0)
LD 1 (-5)
Con 1 (0)
o/i 1 (-7)

So that'd be 3 SNP, 2 Labour?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 04, 2012, 12:53:44 pm
It's also possible that I miscounted somewhere.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 04, 2012, 01:02:54 pm
...and finally Leeds vote No.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Peter on May 04, 2012, 04:24:11 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/3_29_04_12_7_35_49.png)
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v230/ukconstitution/Oxford-2012-winner.jpg)

As somewhat predicted, a bit of a bad night for the LDs. Labour overwhelming winners both in terms of seats and votes. Greens polled second overall, and in a great number of wards.

New Council
Labour 29 (+3); LD 13 (-3); Green 5 (-); Independent 1

Lab gain 2 from LD
Lab gain 1 from IWCA
Lab gain 1 from Green
Green gain 1 from LD
Ind gain 1 from Lab

Carfax has gone Labour! Carfax. This is a very studenty ward, and in my time at Oxford, was very anti-Labour (an anti-govt time of course - I was a student in the immediate aftermath of Iraq invasion, top-up fees, etc.). The Lib Dems clearly threw everything at retaining Headington & the NW wards - there was a total collapse along the Cowley Road wards and amongst any C1/2 worker population in the NE of Oxford.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: joevsimp on May 04, 2012, 04:30:32 pm
what particular variety is the independent cllr?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 04, 2012, 04:40:14 pm
Ed Miliband got egged a few hours ago by the way. Made a joke about his "cracking" results on Twitter. Probably still the best day he's had of his leadership, so far.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdFgxYJWQDw


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Peter on May 04, 2012, 05:10:30 pm
what particular variety is the independent cllr?

Community campaigner, working class, thoroughly deserving of the post. Nominally labour-ish, but thoroughly rooted by a moral compass - he's the sort that'll do what he thinks is right even if it damns him in an election.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 04, 2012, 05:23:33 pm
Anyone know where I can find archives on national equivilent vote share?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Andrea on May 04, 2012, 06:18:57 pm
Glasgow seats by ward...

Linn - 2 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 LDem
Newlands/Auldburn - 2 Lab
Greater Pollok - 2 Lab, 2 SNP
Craigton - 2 Lab, 2 SNP
Govan - 2 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 GF
Pollokshields - 1 SNP, 1 Lab, 1 Con
Langside - 1 SNP, 1 Lab, 1 Green
Southside Central - 2 Lab, 2 SNP
Calton - 2 Lab, 1 SNP
Anderston/City - 2 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 Green
Hillhead - 2 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 Green
Partick West - 2 SNP, 1 Lab, 1 Green
Garscadden/Scotstounhill - 3 Lab, 1 SNP
Drumchapel/Anniesland - 3 Lab, 1 SNP
Maryhill/Kelvin - 2 Lab, 2 SNP
Canal - 2 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 Green
Springburn - 2 Lab, 1 SNP
East Centre - 3 Lab, 1 SNP
Shettleston - 3 Lab, 1 SNP
North East - 3 Lab, 1 SNP

Baillieston doesn't seem to be in yet or isn't on the website or something.

2 Lab and 2 SNP in Baillieston. I see it's missing from the detailed results on the council website but they announced it on their twitter feed.
You left out 1 SNP in Newlands/Auldburn


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Gary J on May 05, 2012, 02:54:05 am
I produced a post on the prospects for the Slough local election. I can now report that the election was a triumph for the Labour Party. They won all fourteen seats up for election.

Labour won three seats from the Conservatives. That included one ward won by a majority of two, after four recounts. This is the second closest result since the present unitary authority council was first elected in 1997, before Slough became a unitary authority area in 1998. The closest result, in the same ward as this year's close result (Langley St Mary's), was a tie for the third seat in a whole council election. After a roll of dice, the Conservative candidate was credited with a casting vote to defeat his Independent Langley Resident rival.

Labour won the Central ward seat, held by Independent councillor Pervez Choudhry (originally elected for Labour in 2008). Choudhry tried to be re-elected in Baylis and Stoke ward. Despite his recent bigamy conviction, the councillor was the runner up in his new ward with 426 votes (21.57 per cent).

Labour also won four seats from the Britwellian, Independent, Liberal and Liberal Democrat group (one each won from Independent Britwellian Resident and Liberal Democrat incumbents and gains from retiring Liberal and Independent councillors). The BILLD group is no more. Only one Liberal Democrat councillor remains, from the non Labour or Conservative councillors who were the largest group on the council in 2004.

The party breakdown of the council is Labour 35, Conservative 5 and Liberal Democrat 1. The Labour overall majority of 29 is the largest from 1997 (when the majority was 27 - 34 Labour councillors opposed by 4 Conservative and 3 Liberal members).

Labour's vote in 2012 was 14,811. This was 56.38%, beating the previous record in 1997 of 53.82%.

The Conservative vote of 6,215 (23.66%), was the second lowest percentage vote for them from 1997 when they got 21.46%.

The Liberal Democrat vote of 1,186 (4.51%) was the worst from 1997. Three of the four Lib Dem candidates finished behind a UKIP rival in the ward results.

UKIP jumped from nowhere to 2,822 votes (10.74% of the borough wide poll). However none of the UKIP candidates was anywhere near being elected. All fourteen of them finished third with a vote range from 5.33% to 19.48%


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2012, 10:57:25 am
Has anyone mentioned the penguin yet?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2012, 12:15:50 pm
Cardiff:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/8_05_05_12_12_13_11.PNG)



Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 05, 2012, 04:20:07 pm
(http://cdn.politicalscrapbook.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/wpid-rps20120504_185424_3791.jpg?cda6c1)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2012, 07:44:40 pm
Just noticed while randomly looking at the Sheffield results that Paul Scriven actually came a pretty poor third in Broomfield. lol.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 06, 2012, 12:40:03 am
North East;

Changes from 2008, with those in brackets not contesting this time around.

Regions;

Tyne & Wear
Lab 58.3% (+20.8%)
Con 16.6% (-7.4%)
Lib 13.2% (-10.4%)
Ind  5.1% (-0.7%)
Rig  2.5% (-5.2%)
 UKI 1.3% (+1.3%)
 BNP 0.5% (-6.1%)
 Prg 0.5% (-0.3%)
 N-F 0.2% (+0.1%)
 [FEP 0.1% (-0.1%)]
Lef  2.3% (+1.1%)
 Grn 1.5% (+0.9%)
 Lib*0.6% (+0.1%)
 TUS 0.1% (+0.1%)
 Com 0.0% (+0.0%)
 [LfL 0.0% (-0.0%)]
Oth  1.9% (+1.9%)
 Nc1  1.9% (+1.9%)

Hartlepool
Lab 34.8% (+3.2%)
Ht1 22.6% (+22.6%)
Con 13.5% (-8.8%)
Ind 12.9% (-5.5%)
UKI 11.0% (-0.1%)
Lib  4.1% (-9.8%)
BNP  1.0% (-1.7%)

Tyne & Wear;

Gateshead           Newcastle           North Tyneside      South Tyneside      Sunderland
Lab 66.1% (+24.0%)  Lab 50.1% (+18.3%)  Lab 58.0% (+20.2%)  Lab 57.2% (+19.8%)  Lab  61.3% (+21.8%)
Lib 21.1% (-13.4%)  Lib 27.6% (-18.2%)  Con 34.2% (-9.4%)   Ind 21.3% (-3.9%)   Con  20.8% (-11.2%)
Con  8.0% (-4.8%)   Nc1  8.0% (+8.0%)   Lib  7.3% (-8.4%)   Con 12.4% (-3.5%)   Lib   5.6% (-6.0%)
Lib* 1.9% (-1.1%)   Con  7.6% (-5.9%)   N-F  0.4% (-0.1%)   Prg  3.6% (-2.2%)   UKI   5.0% (+5.0%)
Grn  1.3% (+1.3%)   Ind  3.4% (+2.4%)   [BNP 2.1% (-2.1%)]  BNP  3.2% (-6.0%)   Ind   4.7% (-1.7%)
TUS  0.7% (+0.7%)   Grn  2.6% (+1.1%)   [Grn 0.3% (-0.3%)]  Lib* 1.7% (+1.7%)   Grn   2.2% (+2.2%)
Ind  0.6% (-1.2%)   BNP  0.4% (-5.2%)                       Grn  0.5% (-0.9%)   N-F   0.2% (+0.2%)
N-F  0.2% (+0.2%)   Com  0.1% (+0.1%)                       [Lib 5.0% (-5.0%)]  [BNP 10.2% (-10.2%]
[BNP 5.8% (-5.8%)]  TUS  0.1% (+0.1%)                                           [LfL  0.1% (-0.1%)  
                    [FEP 0.5% (-0.5%)]
                    [UKI 0.2% (-0.2%)]
                    [LfL 0.0% (-0.0%)]


Swings from 2011 (you can see the results in more detail at the old thread (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=134073.msg3044970#msg3044970)):

Hartlepool: Lab to Ht1 16.7% (!)
Gateshead: Lib to Lab 1.3%
Newcastle: Lib to Lab 1.3%
N. Tyneside: Con to Lab 1.9%
S. Tyneside: Ind to Lab 2.0%
Sunderland: Con to Lab 3.3%

Tyne & Wear: Con to Lab 2.4%



Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 06, 2012, 01:22:23 am
Anyone know where I can find archives on national equivilent vote share?

http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/RP11-43.pdf


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Peter on May 06, 2012, 04:53:59 am
Oxford vote shares by ward

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/d/d0/Oxford2012partyshare.PNG/1000px-Oxford2012partyshare.PNG)

Interesting to look at the comparisons over the past 6 years:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Newprogressive/Oxfordmaps

A complete LD retreat into its core wards , and a general expansion of the Labour/Green vote (2010 is an exception for the Greens as the general election affects local voting intentions).

Also Carfax ward has now been represented by a councillor for all 4 parties over the last few years:

Labour (2012 -)
Lib Dem (2002-2007; 2008-2012; 2010 - )
Green (2002-2010)
Conservative (2007-2008), though only due to defection


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 06, 2012, 09:48:33 am
Nice maps. Great post on Slough as well GaryJ.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 06, 2012, 12:39:07 pm
Rallings and Thrasher have released their vote share (changes from 2011):

Lab 39% (+2%)
Con 33% (-5%)
Lib 15% (-1%)
Oth 13% (+4%)

(http://i47.tinypic.com/29ftbio.png)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 08, 2012, 05:08:07 am
Some fun facts from Edinburgh;

Largest Party by Ward (vote share)

SNP – Almond, Pentland Hills, Drum/Brae/Gyle, Leith, Craigentinny/Duddingston
LAB – Forth, Sighthill/Gorgie, Leith Walk, Liberton/Gilmerton, Portobello/Craigmillar
CON – Inverleith, Corstorphine/Murrayfield, Colinton/Fairmilehead, Meadows/Morningside. City Centre
GRN – Fountainbridge/Craiglockheart, Southside/Newington

Largest Green Party shares (over 10%)

Fountainbridge/Craiglockheart 24.1%
Leith Walk 20.3%
Southside/Newington 20.0%
Meadows/Morningside 19.8%
Leith 18.9%
Portobello/Craigmillar 18.5%
City Centre 17.1%
Inverleith 14.9%

And for fun; Labour and the SNP are going into power together.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 08, 2012, 06:40:59 am
Just noticed while randomly looking at the Sheffield results that Paul Scriven actually came a pretty poor third in Broomfield. lol.

Yes, there are quite a few people around who don't like him very much.  Plus the Greens fought hard and the Lib Dems are going to have to work to avoid Broomhill following Central's path.  (Though Central was never a Lib Dem stronghold in the way Broomhill was.)

If you want some more lols look at the Tory performances in the inner west (and some parts of the outer west, like Ecclesall); many of these areas were Tory strongholds until the 1980s and in some cases until the early 1990s.

I'll do some swing maps and vote share maps for Sheffield at some point over the next few days.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 08, 2012, 02:26:10 pm
I'm working on my maps. Worth noting how Labour have bounced back rurally in the north of Scotland. They are still, in many cases a distant third, but the collapse of the Lib Dems has seen some old patterns of support be re-affirmed.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 08, 2012, 05:12:58 pm
North West

Regions;

Lancashire          Greater Manchester  Merseyside
Lab 52.0% (+19.4%)  Lab 52.0% (+19.6%)  Lab 56.9% (+24.2%)
Con 28.7% (-10.1%)  Con 21.6% (-11.2%)  Con 14.9% (-10.2%)
Lib 11.3% (-7.4%)   Lib 13.3% (-10.5%)  Lib 13.4% (-17.5%)
Ind  3.6% (-0.1%)   Ind  3.9% (+1.8%)   Ind  1.1% (+0.8%)
Rig  3.1% (-0.9%)   Lef  4.8% (-0.2%)   Lef  7.6% (+2.0%)
 UKI  1.5% (+1.1%)   Grn  3.7% (+0.8%)   Grn  5.1% (+1.8%)
 BNP  1.1% (-2.0%)   CAc  0.6% (-1.2%)   Lib* 1.7% (-0.3%)
 EDP  0.1% (+0.1%)   TUS  0.2% (+0.2%)   TUS  0.6% (+0.6%)
 E-1  0.1% (-0.2%)   Res  0.2% (+0.1%)   SLP  0.1% (+0.1%)
 N-F  0.1% (+0.1%)   Pir  0.0% (+0.0%)   SEq  0.0% (+0.0%)
 DNt  0.0% (+0.0%)   Com  0.0% (+0.0%)   [S-A 0.1% (-0.1%)]
 [New 0.1% (-0.1%)]  Lib* 0.0% (+0.0%)   [USP 0.1% (-0.1%)]
Lef  1.1% (+0.3%)    [LfL 0.1% (-0.1%)]  [Com 0.0% (-0.0%)]
 Grn  1.1% (+0.4%)   [S-A 0.0% (-0.0%)] Rig  5.2% (+0.7%)
 [LfL 0.0% (-0.0%)] Rig  4.3% (+0.6%)    UKI  4.8% (+2.7%)
Oth  0.2% (-1.4%)    UKI  3.0% (+2.4%)   BNP  0.2% (-2.2%)
 FDw  0.2% (-1.4%)   BNP  0.9% (-1.9%)   EDP  0.2% (+0.2%)
                     EDP  0.4% (+0.4%)   BFr  0.1% (+0.1%)
                     N-F  0.0% (+0.0%)   N-F  0.0% (+0.0%)
                     Dm1  0.0% (+0.0%)  Oth  0.8% (-0.1%)
                     [E-1 0.1% (-0.1%)]  Sou  0.4% (+0.0%)
                    Oth                  14K  0.3% (-0.2%)
                     [You 0.1% (-0.1%)]

Cheshire;

Halton             Warrington
Lab 72.7% (+34.6%) Lab 54.3% (+26.2%)
Lib 12.4% (-18.2%) Con 22.0% (-9.6%)
Con 10.0% (-17.4%) Lib 20.1% (-16.7%)
Ind  4.9% (+4.9%)  Grn  2.2% (+0.8%)
[Grn 3.5% (-3.5%)] UKI  1.3% (+1.3%)
[Cit 0.4% (-0.4%)] [Ind 1.1% (-1.1%)]
                   [BNP 1.0% (-1.0%)]

Cumbria;

Carlisle           South Lakeland  
Lab 47.3% (+16.7%) Lib 44.9% (n/a)
Con 28.8% (-12.0%) Con 40.8% (n/a)
Lib  7.4% (-6.5%)  Lab  9.7% (n/a)
UKI  6.9% (+6.9%)  Grn  4.2% (n/a)
Grn  4.9% (+4.9%)  UKI  0.4% (n/a)
Ind  3.9% (-1.5%)
TUS  0.4% (+0.4%)
BNP  0.3% (-8.3%)
[EDP 0.7% (-0.7%)]

Greater Manchester;

Bolton             Bury               Manchester         Oldham             Rochdale
Lab 51.8% (+19.4%) Lab 51.0% (+21.3%) Lab 64.5% (+21.5%) Lab 54.7% (+23.2%) Lab 53.3% (+22.0%)
Con 28.7% (-13.1%) Con 28.6% (-18.3%) Lib 14.1% (-16.3%) Lib 24.6% (-13.0%) Con 26.6% (-3.9%)
Lib 12.3% (-8.0%)  Lib  9.3% (-7.5%)  Grn  8.3% (-0.0%)  Con 14.8% (-9.6%)  Lib 15.3% (-20.8%)
Grn  4.6% (+2.1%)  UKI  8.8% (+8.7%)  Con  6.4% (-7.8%)  Ind  2.2% (+0.1%)  Ind  3.2% (+2.0%)
Ind  1.2% (+1.1%)  EDP  1.1% (+0.4%)  Ind  2.4% (+2.4%)  Res  2.0% (+2.0%)  UKI  0.6% (+0.6%)
EDP  0.9% (+0.9%)  Grn  1.1% (+1.1%)  UKI  2.1% (+1.7%)  UKI  1.3% (+1.3%)  N-F  0.4% (+0.4%)
BNP  0.4% (-0.8%)  [BNP 5.0% (-5.0%)] TUS  0.9% (+0.9%)  Grn  0.3% (-1.0%)  EDP  0.4% (+0.4%)
[You 0.9% (-0.9%)] [Ind 0.7% (-0.7%)] BNP  0.5% (-1.4%)  [BNP 1.8% (-1.8%)] [BNP 0.8% (-0.8%)]
[LfL 0.6% (-0.6%)]                    Pir  0.3% (+0.3%)  [E-1 1.3% (-1.3%)]
                                      Res  0.1% (-0.6%)
                                      Dm1  0.1% (+0.1%)
                                      Com  0.0% (+0.0%)
                                      [LfL 0.7% (-0.7%)]
                                      [S-A 0.3% (-0.3%)]

Salford            Stockport          Tameside           Trafford           Wigan
Lab 53.7% (+18.9%) Lab 33.4% (+17.5%) Lab 58.1% (+16.5%) Lab 41.8% (+15.2%) Lab 56.2% (+18.7%)
Con 20.3% (-13.7%) Lib 31.0% (-8.6%)  Con 20.4% (-16.1%) Con 39.5% (-8.9%)  Ind 18.7% (+9.8%)
Lib  8.2% (-13.1%) Con 25.3% (-9.9%)  UKI  8.7% (+6.0%)  Lib  9.3% (-7.8%)  Con 14.5% (-11.6%)
UKI  5.4% (+5.1%)  UKI  3.2% (+2.1%)  Grn  6.7% (+2.6%)  Grn  7.5% (+0.4%)  CAc  4.3% (-9.7%)
BNP  3.8% (+0.2%)  Ind  3.2% (-0.0%)  Ind  3.6% (+1.5%)  Ind  0.2% (-0.0%)  Lib  3.1% (-5.5%)
Ind  2.4% (-0.0%)  Grn  2.0% (-0.3%)  EDP  1.6% (+1.6%)  UKI  1.7% (+1.3%)  BNP  1.5% (-1.8%)
Grn  2.2% (+2.2%)  BNP  1.8% (-0.8%)  BNP  0.9% (-8.6%)  [BNP 0.2% (-0.2%)] Grn  0.7% (+0.7%)
CAc  2.1% (-1.4%)  Lib* 0.0% (+0.0%)  [Lib 3.5% (-3.5%)]                    UKI  0.6% (-0.7%)
EDP  1.0% (+1.0%)                                                           TUS  0.3% (+0.3%)
TUS  0.7% (+0.7%)                                                           [Res 0.3% (-0.3%)]


Lancashire;

Blackburn w/Darwen Burnley            Chorley            Hyndburn           Pendle            
Lab 61.2% (+23.8%) Lab 52.6% (+24.8%) Lab 52.1% (+17.0%) Lab 54.4% (+12.5%) Lab 40.6% (+16.4%)
Con 29.7% (+0.2%)  Lib 33.5% (-3.8%)  Con 32.4% (-13.3%) Con 34.3% (-15.6%) Con 28.8% (-10.4%)
Lib  6.8% (-14.4%) Con  5.6% (-13.3%) Ind  7.7% (-2.7%)  Ind  6.9% (+4.6%)  Lib 23.4% (-5.7%)
Fdw  0.9% (-7.1%)  BNP  5.3% (-9.6%)  UKI  4.4% (+4.4%)  UKI  3.7% (+3.7%)  BNP  2.9% (-2.2%)
BNP  0.7% (-0.3%)  UKI  2.9% (+2.9%)  Lib  2.2% (-5.6%)  Lib  0.6% (-3.5%)  Grn  1.8% (+1.8%)
Grn  0.4% (-0.7%)  [E-1 1.0% (-1.0%)] Grn  1.2% (+1.2%)  [Grn 1.8% (-1.8%)] EDP  1.3% (+1.3%)
Ind  0.2% (-0.8%)                     [New 1.1% (-1.1%)]                    UKI  0.8% (+0.8%)
[E-1 0.7% (-0.7%)]                                                          DNt  0.4% (+0.4%)
                                                                            [Ind 2.4% (-2.4%)]

Preston            Rossendale         West Lancashire
Lab 46.9% (+18.9%) Lab 46.8% (+16.2%) Lab 56.5% (+19.7%)
Con 29.3% (-11.6%) Con 35.6% (-9.4%)  Con 35.9% (-18.3%)
Lib 14.6% (-9.4%)  Lib  7.9% (-6.4%)  Grn  4.1% (+1.0%)
Ind  6.9% (+0.8%)  Ind  7.0% (+2.9%)  Ind  2.4% (+0.8%)
Grn  1.3% (+1.1%)  UKI  1.4% (+1.4%)  Lib  0.6% (+0.6%)
E-1  1.0% (+0.6%)  N-F  1.1% (+1.1%)  UKI  0.4% (-3.8%)
[LfL 0.3% (-0.3%) [BNP 6.0% (-6.0%)]

Merseyside;

Knowsley           Liverpool          Sefton             St Helens          Wirral
Lab 78.9% (+26.1%) Lab 64.5% (+25.5%) Lab 48.4% (+26.4%) Lab 62.0% (+25.0%) Lab 44.6% (+19.0%)
Lib 10.5% (-21.8%) Lib 13.1% (-21.5%) Lib 18.8% (-13.0%) Con 12.9% (-6.8%)  Con 30.6% (-13.0%)
14K  3.8% (-1.7%)  Grn  7.3% (+0.6%)  Con 16.7% (-18.0%) Lib 12.4% (-25.3%) Lib 10.9% (-11.7%)
Con  3.7% (-3.4%)  Lib* 5.4% (-1.5%)  UKI 11.7% (+4.9%)  Grn  8.0% (+8.0%)  UKI  7.4% (+5.0%)
TUS  1.5% (+1.5%)  Con  4.6% (-3.9%)  Sou  2.1% (+0.3%)  Ind  3.5% (+3.5%)  Grn  5.9% (+1.0%)
Ind  1.2% (+1.0%)  UKI  1.4% (+1.3%)  Grn  1.5% (+1.2%)  BNP  0.9% (-4.7%)  Ind  0.4% (+0.2%)
N-F  0.2% (+0.2%)  Ind  1.2% (+0.5%)  Ind  0.4% (+0.4%)  SEq  0.1% (+0.1%)  TUS  0.1% (+0.1%)
[BNP 1.2% (-1.2%)] TUS  1.1% (+1.1%)  TUS  0.3% (+0.3%)                     BNP  0.1% (-0.5%)
[USP 0.5% (-0.5%)] EDP  0.6% (+0.6%)  [BNP 1.8% (-1.8%)]                    [Lib*0.1% (-0.1%)]
[Grn 0.2% (-0.2%)] SLP  0.4% (+0.3%)  [S-A 0.5% (-0.5%)]
                   BFr  0.2% (+0.2%)  [Com 0.1% (-0.1%)]
                   BNP  0.2% (-3.2%)
                   [USP 0.1% (-0.1%)]

Swings since 2011;

Greater Manchester      Merseyside
Bolt. Con to Lab 3.6%   Know. Lib to Lab 2.3%
Bury. Con to Lab 3.9%   Livr. Lib to Lab 3.2%
Manc. Lib to Lab 2.6%   Seft. Lib to Lab 2.0%
Oldh. Lib to Lab 0.4%   StHe. Con to Lab 3.0%
Roch. Con to Lab 1.0%   Wirr. Con to Lab 2.0%
Salf. Con to Lab 1.6%
Stoc. Lib to Lab 0.0%   Mers. Con to Lab 3.0%
Tame. Con to Lab 3.1%
Traf. Con to Lab 2.6%
Wiga. Con to Lab 3.4%

GtrM. Con to Lab 2.9%



Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 08, 2012, 06:03:46 pm
Yeah, Burnley was objectively one of Labour's best results - anywhere - last week.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 08, 2012, 06:07:51 pm
The BNP results are hilarious. Seriously.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 10, 2012, 01:27:33 pm
OK, time for some Sheffield maps.

First, winning party.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5294_10_05_12_1_03_32.jpg)

Next, Lab/LD swing from 2011 to 2012 (UK definition of swing, so average of vote changes rather than the sum).  Colours are in increments of 4%, with the darkest colours being 12% to 16%.  NB no wards had swings to LD between 4% and 8%.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5294_10_05_12_1_04_33.jpg)

Next, Lab/LD swing from the last time these seats were contested, in 2008.  Same colour scheme as above, except that the darkest red is from 20% up to over 29% (in Hillsborough); I ran out of shades of red.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5294_10_05_12_1_05_26.jpg)

Now vote share maps for the five parties with full slates.  First Labour, with 10% increments, the darkest shade being 70% to 80%.  This was a pretty good performance, though not quite as good as last year in most places.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5294_10_05_12_1_06_04.jpg)

The Lib Dems, again in 10% increments, the darkest being 40% to 50%.  In most wards this is slightly down on last year.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5294_10_05_12_1_06_47.jpg)

The Greens, in 5% increments.  They got 31% in Broomhill and 49% in Central.  They did well in many places, but slipped a bit in the east of the city.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5294_10_05_12_1_07_31.jpg)

UKIP, in 5% increments.  I've included Steve Moxon in Dore & Totley as his name was still on the ballot paper as UKIP.  In Stocksbridge & Upper Don, where they came second, their candidate was a Stocksbridge town councillor.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5294_10_05_12_1_08_43.jpg)

Finally the Tories, again in 5% increments (though there are no wards in the 15% to 20% or 25% to 30% categories).  Except in Dore & Totley and Fulwood they did terribly, coming fifth citywide and being beaten by the Greens and/or UKIP in every ward other than those two.  I believe that in terms of citywide share this was the worst ever performance by the Conservative Party in Sheffield local elections since they first started standing as such.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5294_10_05_12_1_08_14.jpg)





Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 10, 2012, 04:08:38 pm
The dark (partial) red belt on the swing map is really interesting, actually.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 11, 2012, 05:53:38 am
I have gone through all the English council webpages so you don't have to and printed all the English 2012 results off into one file.  Here it is:
https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/teale-elections/england12.psom.pdf (https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/teale-elections/england12.psom.pdf).
This is 32.7MB so I would recommend downloading it first rather than trying to open it directly in your web browser.  Good luck trying to find anything.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 11, 2012, 06:13:12 am
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-18017940

Langside Ward in Glasgow may be re-run follwing the discovery of an uncounted ballot box in Battlefield. It may affect the elimination of some candidates in the earlier round. On the 8th Count a Green was elected over an SNP. Probably unlikely to change the overall result though.

EDIT: I stand corrected. The box contained up to 400 ballot papers.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: joevsimp on May 11, 2012, 12:43:53 pm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-18017940

Langside Ward in Glasgow may be re-run follwing the discovery of an uncounted ballot box in Battlefield. It may affect the elimination of some candidates in the earlier round. On the 8th Count a Green was elected over an SNP. Probably unlikely to change the overall result though.

EDIT: I stand corrected. The box contained up to 400 ballot papers.

I take ot you mean they'll redo the count from scratch, rather than have a byelection


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on May 14, 2012, 03:50:26 pm
Yorkshire & Humber

Regions;

South Yorkshire     West Yorkshire     
Lab 51.0% (+19.7%)  Lab 44.3% (+15.8%)
Con 12.5% (-7.9%)   Con 24.4% (-8.9%)
Lib 11.4% (-9.3%)   Lib 12.3% (-6.7%)
Ind  7.5% (-3.2%)   Ind  4.1% (+0.6%)
Rig  11.8% (+1.3%)  Lef  9.7% (+4.6%)
 UKI  7.8% (+4.1%)   Grn  5.6% (+1.2%)
 EDP  2.6% (+2.2%)   Res  3.5% (+3.4%)
 BNP  1.2% (-5.1%)   GrS  0.3% (+0.0%)
 DNt  0.1% (+0.1%)   TUS  0.3% (+0.3%)
Lef  5.8% (-0.6%)    SLP  0.0% (+0.0%)
 Grn  4.7% (-0.4%)   [NHS 0.1% (-0.1%)]
 CmG  0.5% (-0.3%)   [S-A 0.0% (-0.0%)]
 TUS  0.5% (+0.5%)   [SOS 0.0% (-0.0%)]
 SLP  0.0% (+0.0%)   [ACr 0.0% (-0.0%)]
 [LfL 0.3% (-0.3%)] Rig  5.2% (-5.3%)
 [S-A 0.1% (-0.1%)]  UKI  3.6% (+3.2%)
Oth  0.0% (+0.0%)    EDP  1.1% (+0.8%)
 MRL  0.0% (+0.0%)   BNP  0.3% (-9.1%)
                     DNt  0.2% (-0.0%)
                     BPP  0.0% (+0.0%)
                     [New 0.1% (-0.1%)]
                     [BrV 0.0% (-0.0%)]
                     [B!P 0.0% (-0.0%)]

North Yorkshire;

Craven             Harrogate
Con 50.1% (-4.9%)  Con 64.4% (-1.4%)
Lib 17.0% (-10.4%) Lib 12.9% (-14.1%)
Lab 16.4% (+9.0%)  Lab 12.8% (+11.3%)
Ind 14.2% (+4.0%)  Lib* 4.1% (+4.1%)
Grn  2.2% (+2.2%)  Ind  3.6% (+0.6%)
                   UKI  2.1% (+1.4%)
                   [BNP 2.0% (-2.0%)]

South Yorkshire;

Barnsley           Doncaster          Rotherham          Sheffield
Lab 56.4% (+25.0%) Lab 50.9% (+21.8%) Lab 55.3% (+19.1%) Lab 46.8% (+16.8%)
Ind 22.6% (-6.2%)  Con 18.0% (-6.8%)  Con 16.6% (-12.5%) Lib 21.9% (-15.0%)
Con 11.0% (-4.2%)  Ind 10.2% (-6.4%)  UKI 14.8% (-0.4%)  UKI 10.4% (+8.9%)
EDP  5.0% (+5.0%)  Lib  8.3% (-7.4%)  Ind  5.7% (-1.6%)  Grn 10.4% (+1.3%)
UKI  2.2% (+2.1%)  EDP  7.8% (+5.8%)  BNP  4.9% (-2.0%)  Con  8.2% (-7.8%)
BNP  1.6% (-15.4%) CmG  2.4% (-1.4%)  Lib  1.5% (-3.8%)  Ind  0.9% (-0.4%)
Lib  0.5% (-6.1%)  UKI  0.9% (+0.5%)  Grn  0.7% (+0.7%)  TUS  1.0% (+1.0%)
SLP  0.3% (+0.3%)  Grn  0.8% (-5.0%)  TUS  0.3% (+0.3%)  EDP  0.1% (+0.1%)
TUS  0.2% (+0.2%)  DNt  0.6% (+0.6%)  MRL  0.1% (+0.1%)  [BNP 4.0% (-4.0%)]
[Grn 0.7% (-0.7%)] [BNP 1.6% (-1.6%)]                    [LfL 0.8% (-0.8%)]
                   [LfL 0.2% (-0.2%)]

West Yorkshire;

Bradford           Calderdale         Kirklees           Leeds              Wakefield
Lab 37.6% (+8.7%)  Lab 40.4% (+18.4%) Lab 42.9% (+16.7%) Lab 46.0% (+17.2%) Lab 56.2% (+21.5%)
Con 23.4% (-13.6%) Con 31.0% (-4.8%)  Con 27.1% (-4.2%)  Con 22.0% (-8.7%)  Con 23.6% (-11.4%)
Res 14.7% (+14.4%) Lib 19.8% (-8.0%)  Lib 12.4% (-5.9%)  Lib 12.9% (-6.2%)  UKI  7.9% (+7.7%)
Lib 13.5% (-8.3%)  Ind  3.9% (+1.6%)  Grn 10.2% (+2.6%)  Grn  5.4% (+1.6%)  Ind  6.5% (-4.4%)
Grn  5.2% (-0.0%)  Grn  3.8% (+2.0%)  Ind  4.9% (+2.7%)  UKI  4.6% (+3.7%)  Lib  3.3% (-5.8%)
UKI  2.8% (+2.4%)  TUS  0.5% (+0.5%)  UKI  1.5% (+1.5%)  Ind  4.5% (+0.4%)  Grn  1.1% (-0.2%)
Ind  1.4% (+1.4%)  BPP  0.5% (+0.5%)  EDP  0.5% (+0.2%)  EDP  2.6% (+2.5%)  EDP  0.8% (+0.8%)
DNt  0.8% (-0.1%)  [BNP 7.9% (-7.9%)] TUS  0.5% (+0.5%)  GrS  1.1% (+0.1%)  TUS  0.5% (+0.5%)
BNP  0.4% (-4.6%)  [EDP 2.3% (-2.3%)] [BNP 12.6%(-12.6%)]BNP  0.5% (-10.9%) [BNP 8.2% (-8.2%)]
SLP  0.1% (+0.1%)                     [NHS 0.8% (-0.8%)] TUS  0.3% (+0.3%)  [S-A 0.4% (-0.4%)]
[EDP 0.1% (-0.1%)]                    [New 0.4% (-0.4%)]                    [BrV 0.2% (-0.2%)]
[ACP 0.0% (-0.0%)]                    [SOS 0.2% (-0.2%)]
                                      [Bl! 0.0% (-0.0%)]

East Riding of Yorkshire;

Kingston-upon-Hull
Lab 53.3% (+19.2%)
Lib 31.8% (-9.9%)
Con  6.3% (-7.7%)
UKI  5.5% (+4.3%)
Grn  1.7% (-0.1%)
N-F  1.2% (+1.2%)
[Ind 4.9% (-4.9%)]
[EDP 2.2% (-2.2%)]

Lincolnshire;

N/E Lincolnshire
Lab 42.6% (+20.0%)
Con 23.5% (-14.7%)
UKI 18.0% (+18.0%)
Lib 13.3% (-16.2%)
Ind  1.4% (-6.9%)
Grn  1.1% (+1.1%)
[EDP 0.9% (-0.9%)]
[Gen 0.6% (-0.6%)]

Swings since 2011;

South Yorkshire        West Yorkshire
Barn. Ind to Lab 0.9%  Brad. Con to Lab 0.8%
Donc. Con to Lab 2.9%  Cald. Con to Lab 3.3%
Roth. Con to Lab 3.0%  Kirk. Con to Lab 3.0%
Shef. Lib to Lab 1.4%  Leed. Con to Lab 2.0%
                       Wake. Con to Lab 3.2%

SYrk. Con to Lab 2.3%  WYrk. Con to Lab 2.2%


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 15, 2012, 06:34:03 am
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-18017940

Langside Ward in Glasgow may be re-run follwing the discovery of an uncounted ballot box in Battlefield. It may affect the elimination of some candidates in the earlier round. On the 8th Count a Green was elected over an SNP. Probably unlikely to change the overall result though.

EDIT: I stand corrected. The box contained up to 400 ballot papers.

A recount is taking place today.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Andrea on May 15, 2012, 05:09:30 pm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-18017940

Langside Ward in Glasgow may be re-run follwing the discovery of an uncounted ballot box in Battlefield. It may affect the elimination of some candidates in the earlier round. On the 8th Count a Green was elected over an SNP. Probably unlikely to change the overall result though.

EDIT: I stand corrected. The box contained up to 400 ballot papers.

A recount is taking place today.

Council website says the recount confirmed the Green took the final seat and "as the result of the rerun is not different, the Returning Officer does not intend to take any further action".

 


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: doktorb on May 16, 2012, 12:15:13 am
Birmingham by constituency

(http://i1188.photobucket.com/albums/z414/doktorb/652cdf39.png)


West Lancashire

(http://i1188.photobucket.com/albums/z414/doktorb/d2dec57c.png)


Wolverhampton


(http://i1188.photobucket.com/albums/z414/doktorb/6a6972d9.png)




Stockport


(http://i1188.photobucket.com/albums/z414/doktorb/649343c6.png)





Halton

(http://i1188.photobucket.com/albums/z414/doktorb/1f9c4556.jpg)




Wyre Forest



(http://i1188.photobucket.com/albums/z414/doktorb/d9b4a9c6.jpg)



Sefton

(http://i1188.photobucket.com/albums/z414/doktorb/4476ad6a.jpg)




Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 16, 2012, 05:23:29 pm
Some Scottish local authorities have released ballot box data from the elections. This allows you to match up first preference votes etc to each polling district. As Edinburgh have been kind enough to release the data, that's my first port of call.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: bore on May 17, 2012, 11:25:09 am
Some Scottish local authorities have released ballot box data from the elections. This allows you to match up first preference votes etc to each polling district. As Edinburgh have been kind enough to release the data, that's my first port of call.

Can't wait for this :)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 17, 2012, 11:44:10 am
Some Scottish local authorities have released ballot box data from the elections. This allows you to match up first preference votes etc to each polling district. As Edinburgh have been kind enough to release the data, that's my first port of call.

Can't wait for this :)

My first stab. Some polling districts had 4 parties seperated by a dozen votes, so I'll be doing party maps soon.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/73_17_05_12_11_41_03.PNG)


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: bore on May 17, 2012, 01:43:34 pm
Some Scottish local authorities have released ballot box data from the elections. This allows you to match up first preference votes etc to each polling district. As Edinburgh have been kind enough to release the data, that's my first port of call.

Can't wait for this :)

My first stab. Some polling districts had 4 parties seperated by a dozen votes, so I'll be doing party maps soon.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/73_17_05_12_11_41_03.PNG)

That is beautiful.

Also, the most noticeable thing about the map is that the party split really amplifies conservative strength.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 17, 2012, 05:12:32 pm
Some Scottish local authorities have released ballot box data from the elections. This allows you to match up first preference votes etc to each polling district. As Edinburgh have been kind enough to release the data, that's my first port of call.

Can't wait for this :)

My first stab. Some polling districts had 4 parties seperated by a dozen votes, so I'll be doing party maps soon.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/73_17_05_12_11_41_03.PNG)

What's Orange?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 17, 2012, 05:50:14 pm
Ah, how the mighty have fallen. The LibDems.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 17, 2012, 06:00:15 pm
Ah, how the mighty have fallen. The LibDems.

Did they finish 5th in Edinburgh?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: bore on May 18, 2012, 04:01:57 am
Ah, how the mighty have fallen. The LibDems.

Did they finish 5th in Edinburgh?

Yep, they got totally annihilated, even the greens got nearly twice as much as them. I really can't see them holding Edinburgh west now, in fact they will probably just be left with three or four seats in Scotland, I'm thinking of the highland seats and maybe Ming Campbell's seat. As Sibboleth said, the mighty really have fallen.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 18, 2012, 04:50:27 am
What's that Librul enclave like? (Apart from the presumable personal vote factor.)

Also, Labour polling divisions in the New Town? Wtf? Studenty Green vote is studenty.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: bore on May 18, 2012, 05:42:24 am
What's that Librul enclave like? (Apart from the presumable personal vote factor.)

Also, Labour polling divisions in the New Town? Wtf? Studenty Green vote is studenty.

As far as I can tell (and I might be wrong) that's Corstorphine (or at least an area of it), which is basically rich commuters into Edinburgh with a lots of independent shops, I think its more in line with the orange book  than with the Beveridge group, which could explain the relative strength of the Lib Dems.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 18, 2012, 06:30:52 am
What's that Librul enclave like? (Apart from the presumable personal vote factor.)

Also, Labour polling divisions in the New Town? Wtf? Studenty Green vote is studenty.

What I really love about this map is that it is as if (with the exception of the Greens and the SNP) someone has peeled away twenty years of paint.

The Green vote is concentrated enough to have won them about 6 or so FPTP seats under the old system. The map itself doesn't do them justice and I'm working on vote share maps for each party. I'll be starting with the Greens. They did very well in Leith Walk, which is coloured solid red, even though Labour were only marginally ahead of the SNP. The Greens were polling between 17 and 25% there

In the centre of the city, the votes themselves become 4 way ties. The Labour parts of City Centre Ward (the ballot boxes were combined), are not well populated. The area is the old Townhead part of the city and the beginning of the sprawl towards Leith. Labour polled 162 votes, the Tories 156 and the SNP 148 and the Greens 115. So only 6 votes seperated the top 2 and 47 votes seperated the top 4. Next door, the Old Town went 41% Tory.

Worth noting that postal votes are not counted in any of these maps. They are simply collected by ward, so they don't tell us much. However the Tories won City Centre ward and looking at the totals, that was on the strength of the postal vote.

The Lib Dem enclave (and the Lib Dems were just shy of winning two neighbouring districts) is indeed Corstorphine proper. It's Paul Edies personal vote there. Just north is a red patch in Drum Brae/Gyle ward. This is Clermiston, a 1950's housing estate. It's an overspill estate. While the Labour vote isn't strong enough to outvote the neighbouring areas, it's nice to see it make an appearance.

I'm still getting percentage totals for Edinburgh (and spotted just one mistake). I've still to tackle the east of the city.

For 'lols' the lowest % share for the Lib Dems I've found is 0.84% in part of Sighthill/Gorgie ward. The highest Green share so far is 48.85% in part of the Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart ward.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 18, 2012, 06:38:14 am
I'll be starting with the Greens. They did very well in Leith Walk, which is coloured solid red
Neither of which is surprising. :)
Quote
In the centre of the city, the votes themselves become 4 way ties. The Labour parts of City Centre Ward (the ballot boxes were combined), are not well populated. The area is the old Townhead part of the city and the beginning of the sprawl towards Leith. Labour polled 162 votes, the Tories 156 and the SNP 148 and the Greens 115. So only 6 votes seperated the top 2 and 47 votes seperated the top 4. Next door, the Old Town went 41% Tory.
"New Town", surely? The bit of it bitten off and included in the red is mostly the pubcrawling bit of Rose Street etc I suppose.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: afleitch on May 18, 2012, 08:48:29 am
I'll be starting with the Greens. They did very well in Leith Walk, which is coloured solid red
Neither of which is surprising. :)
Quote
In the centre of the city, the votes themselves become 4 way ties. The Labour parts of City Centre Ward (the ballot boxes were combined), are not well populated. The area is the old Townhead part of the city and the beginning of the sprawl towards Leith. Labour polled 162 votes, the Tories 156 and the SNP 148 and the Greens 115. So only 6 votes seperated the top 2 and 47 votes seperated the top 4. Next door, the Old Town went 41% Tory.
"New Town", surely? The bit of it bitten off and included in the red is mostly the pubcrawling bit of Rose Street etc I suppose.

Yes. My apologies; typo. Should of course read New Town. And the red bit of the NewTown is the pub district/bus station/theatreland area.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 21, 2012, 06:11:11 pm
Ah, how the mighty have fallen. The LibDems.

Did they finish 5th in Edinburgh?

Yep, they got totally annihilated, even the greens got nearly twice as much as them. I really can't see them holding Edinburgh west now, in fact they will probably just be left with three or four seats in Scotland, I'm thinking of the highland seats and maybe Ming Campbell's seat. As Sibboleth said, the mighty really have fallen.

Doubtful that Ming'll run again as well!


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: joevsimp on May 23, 2012, 03:16:12 pm
Kennedy might hold his seat, if the boundary changes go through, i reckon he'll beat Alexander for the selection


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: ObserverIE on May 23, 2012, 06:11:28 pm
Kennedy might hold his seat, if the boundary changes go through, i reckon he'll beat Alexander for the selection

Would he be allowed to beat Alexander for the selection, or would he be pressurised into standing aside?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Pilchard on May 24, 2012, 10:11:00 am
So the Lib Dems have held on to control of Cambridge, the last act of the outgoing mayor (who stepped down as a councillor at the elections) was using his casting vote in favour of the Lib Dem candidate after a 21-21 tied vote for the new mayor. The new mayor used her casting vote after two more tied votes for council leader and deputy mayor.

Interestingly, the lone Conservative and the Independent (a former Lib Dem) both voted for Labour's candidates. Anyway, I'd expect a Labour majority at the next elections in 2014 if things stay the way they are nationwide.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on May 24, 2012, 02:59:15 pm
Kennedy might hold his seat, if the boundary changes go through, i reckon he'll beat Alexander for the selection

Would he be allowed to beat Alexander for the selection, or would he be pressurised into standing aside?

I'm sure the SNP will be hoping that Kennedy isn't allowed to beat Alexander.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Harry Hayfield on May 29, 2012, 02:36:16 am
Welsh Local Election Results 2012
(NB: One ward still to formally declare)

Labour   594355   41.61%    (577 Seats +233)
Plaid Cymru   203601   14.25%    (158 Seats -49)
Independent   201760   14.12%    (222 Seats -57)
Conservative   192415   13.47%    (104 Seats -69)
Liberal Democrat   120713    8.45%    (72 Seats -94)
Non Party Independent    47959    3.35%    (56 Seats +7)
Green    14494    1.01%
Ratepayers     9379    0.65%    (1 Seat -3)
Llais Gwynedd     7326    0.51%    (13 Seats +1)
Llanwit First Independents     6488    0.45%    (4 Seats +1)
Swansea Independents     4591    0.32%    (3 Seats -5)
Heath and Birchgrove Independents     3539    0.24%    (1 Seat)
None of the Above Parties     3012    0.21%    (2 Seats +2)
United Kingdom Independence Party     2552    0.17%    (2 Seats +2)
People Before Politics     2226    0.15%    (1 Seat)
Merthyr Independents     2212    0.15%    (2 Seats -4)
Social Democratic Party     2156    0.15%    (1 Seat -2)
Independent Ratepayers     2084    0.14%    (1 Seat +1)
James Michael Brinning, Ind Lab     1992    0.13%
Trade Unionists and Socialists     1476    0.10%
Llandaff North Independents     1114    0.07%
Communist      813    0.05%
Christian People's Alliance      745    0.05%
Socialist Labour Party      678    0.04%
British National Party      261    0.01%
Independent Plaid Cymru      214    0.01%    (1 Seat)
National Front      138    0.00%


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on October 22, 2012, 10:53:40 am
The one city to vote Yes to a mayor in May, Bristol, is having its election on 15 November together with the Police Commissioner elections.  The list of candidates (http://www.bristol.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/council_and_democracy/elections/Mayoral%20-%20Statement%20of%20persons%20nominated.pdf) is out, and Bristolians have no shortage of choice:

Tom Baldwin - TUSC
Tony Britt - Independent
Tim Collins - Independent
Dave Dobbs - The Birthday Party
George Ferguson - Bristol 1st
Rich Fisher - Independent
Stoney Garnett - Independent
Owain George - Independent
Geoff Gollop - Conservative
Neil Maggs - Respect
Spud Murphy - Independent
Philip Pover - Independent
Daniella Radice - Green
Marvin Rees - Labour
Jon Rogers - Lib Dem

That's 15 candidates, of whom more than two are serious; SV was not designed for this.

I found a brief summary of all of the candidates at http://bristolculture.wordpress.com/2012/10/22/15-bristol-mayor-candidates/



Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 22, 2012, 12:23:54 pm
Three serious candidates would still be soluble if voters understand the situation and behave "logically" - ie not vote for any hopeless candidate. Four potentially serious candidates, and SV is up the creek with no paddle in sight.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 22, 2012, 12:28:56 pm
Also, I assume this is the only true Spud Murphy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trainspotting_%28novel%29) standing, as the original Spud Murphy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spud_Murphy) is dead.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 22, 2012, 12:41:14 pm
I don't think SV was really designed for anything; Dale Campbell Savours literally wrote it on the back of an envelope if I recall rightly.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Andrew1 on October 22, 2012, 01:15:09 pm
Also, I assume this is the only true Spud Murphy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trainspotting_%28novel%29) standing, as the original Spud Murphy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spud_Murphy) is dead.

Bristol's Spud Murphy was a Tory cllr. for Avonmouth before losing his seat on the drawing of lots to Labour ex-MP Doug Naysmith.

Tim Collins is a former Avon County Cllr., first for Labour, then he defected to Conservative.

George Ferguson is a former Liberal councillor who stood for Bristol West twice for the Liberals.


Agreed, the SV system is ridiculous for a 15 candidate election. The Torbay mayoral election was similarly a farce. You just have to take a lucky guess as to who will be in the top 2!


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 22, 2012, 01:26:45 pm
Agreed, the SV system is ridiculous for a 15 candidate election. The Torbay mayoral election was similarly a farce. You just have to take a lucky guess as to who will be in the top 2!
You get two guesses; you need to be right with at least one of them.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 22, 2012, 01:31:29 pm
Donny.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 22, 2012, 01:34:12 pm
Donny.
Does anybody have a breakdown of the 25k wasted votes in that - how many actually  went to eliminated major candidates, how many were blanks?


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on October 23, 2012, 02:36:16 am
I don't think SV was really designed for anything; Dale Campbell Savours literally wrote it on the back of an envelope if I recall rightly.

According to Wikipedia he described it in an article he wrote for the New Statesman in 1989, and it was recommended by a Labour commission in 1993 for parliamentary elections.  It doesn't say what they thought its advantages were.

Speaking of Labour ex-MPs, is the Green candidate for Bristol mayor any relation to Giles Radice?

Quote from: Andrew1
George Ferguson is a former Liberal councillor who stood for Bristol West twice for the Liberals.

... and has a Wikipedia page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Ferguson_%28architect%29).


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on October 27, 2012, 04:38:05 am
Doktorb in another place posted an interesting election leaflet (http://i.imgur.com/LMbWU.jpg) from Dave Dobbs, the Birthday Party candidate for Bristol mayor.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 27, 2012, 07:03:20 am
Doktorb in another place posted an interesting election leaflet (http://i.imgur.com/LMbWU.jpg) from Dave Dobbs, the Birthday Party candidate for Bristol mayor.

Just had a quick scan and that wouldn't be too out of place for a Tea Party candidate.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on November 15, 2012, 04:10:03 pm
Bump for Bristol mayoral election today.  Some reports (and a very strange poll which appeared) suggest that Labour are most likely to win, followed by George Ferguson.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/nov/14/bristol-mayor-election-george-ferguson


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on November 16, 2012, 02:54:55 am
Some reports suggest Ferguson may have won.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Andrew1 on November 16, 2012, 07:40:09 am
Bristol Mayor 1st prefs:

George Ferguson (Ind) 35.1%
Lab 29.0%
Con 9.1%
LD 7.0%
Grn 5.9%
Ind 2.7%
Ind 2.1%
Respect 1.8%
Ind 1.6%
TUSC 1.6%
Ind 1.2%
Ind 1.1%
Ind 0.9%
Ind 0.6%
BP 0.5%


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: Andrew1 on November 16, 2012, 07:46:41 am
Returning officer just clarified the total for Ferguson, apparently misheard due to his "Liverpool accent". I think the figures are correct now.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: YL on November 16, 2012, 05:01:44 pm
In the second round, Ferguson went from 31,321 to 37,353, and Rees went from 25,896 to 31,259.

So this guy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Ferguson_%28architect%29) is Mayor of Bristol.

Elsewhere, Hartlepool voted to abolish the mayoral system, so it's farewell to the Monkey.


Title: Re: UK local elections, May 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 16, 2012, 05:24:05 pm
In the second round, Ferguson went from 31,321 to 37,353, and Rees went from 25,896 to 31,259.

So this guy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Ferguson_%28architect%29) is Mayor of Bristol.

Elsewhere, Hartlepool voted to abolish the mayoral system, so it's farewell to the Monkey.

For once, that independant doesn't seems to be a nut, nor an extremist. He actually seems decent.