Talk Elections

This is to debate what would have happened without WW1.

There are a few ways to begin this.

A - The Archduke is never killed, and Austria never goes to war with Serbia
B - Austria goes to war with Serbia, but Russia does not enter the war
C - Austria goes to war with Serbia, and Russia with Austria, but Germany does not join

I think options A and C are most likely.

In C I see a fast war in which Austria loses some lands. 1915 looks like this:

()



In A I see that when the reforming Archduke comes to power in 1916, that KuK would descend into chaos, and end up looking like this by 1918:

()

C is not at all plausible.  Austria-Hungary would never have gone to war without a German promise to help guard against a Russian stab in the back, and Wilhelm would not have reneged on such a promise.

B is possible, but not without a POD prior to the assassination that convinced Russia that it was not yet time to fight a general European war.

A is the only plausible scenario of the three you presented.

Another scenario would be:

D.  The Kaiser ends his cruise early and convinces Austria-Hungary to not press for the acceptance of the demand for Austrian police to be accepted into Serbia.

A is my preference. It would also allow for a Serbian-Hungarian war right off the bat.

It would be cool to see America sit on the sidelines, thus preventing a global war.