Talk Elections

Ages and ages ago I made a thread (which is linked to on the Special Threads thread) that showed the results of British General Elections from 1955 onwards at constituency level using the Boothroyd maps. I decided a while back (after noting that said maps were actually quite good; I'll make a few changes to the 1955-1974 one, but other than that...) that it might be an idea to occasionally do a few again, with my new standard key and some fairly detailed notes. This does not replace (not at all) any other projects I might be occasionally working on, obviously. The idea is to introduce, more or less.

So the way is this will work is that I will post a map. Underneath there will be some information relating to the election and to the context in which the election was fought. That kind of thing.

I have attempted creating a series of bitmaps to replace the Boothroyd template. I created a set of constituency maps from 1918 for Scotland which you’ll notice I now use, but never got further than a base county outline for England and Wales. Is it fun re-inventing the wheel? Yes. If I have the time I might get round to trying again.

I thought I'd get the worst one out of the way first:

()

Conservatives 397 seats, Labour 209 seats, Alliance 23 seats, SNP 2 seats, Plaid 2 seats, Northern Ireland 17 seats.

Popular vote for Great Britain: Conservatives 43.5%, Labour 28.3%, Alliance 26.0%, Others 2.2%

The Alliance was an electoral coalition of the Liberal Party (17 seats) and the SDP (6 seats). The SDP was a new party, formed in 1981 from members of the Manifesto Group of right-wing Labour MPs and was perhaps a tad top heavy.

The Tories were led by Margaret Thatcher (Finchley) and Labour by Michael Foot (Blaenau Gwent). The Liberals were led by David Steel (Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale) and the SDP by former Labour cabinet minister and former EEC President Roy Jenkins (Glasgow Hillhead).

As for context, there was rather a lot so this is only a very brief (and rather biased) summary. The Conservative government elected in 1979 had embarked on a radical plan aimed at curbing inflation and ending the Post War social democratic settlement. One notable consequence of this was the rapid destruction of large parts of Britain's industrial base and subsequent mass unemployment. Ordinarily this would have meant certain defeat, but things did not work out that way. The Labour Party entered the most brutal civil war in its history (which is saying something) almost as soon as it lost office in 1979. Bit by bit this internal conflict damaged its credibility with both swing voters and its base. The departure of the bulk of the Manifesto Group in 1981 did not end the civil war, but actually increased its intensity. The SDP-Liberal Alliance briefly seemed poised to capitalise, but it stood for very little other than what it was not and its support was incredibly soft. The second factor, of course, was the Falklands. The result was a Tory landslide, but a very strange one; if you look closely, you'll note that some majorities in strongholds were surprising low as a result of Alliance strength. Labour generally did terribly, but there were swings in its favour in some areas of especially high unemployment.

The next map will be of 1955.

Just how yellow would a two-party Labour-Alliance map look I wonder?

Loads and loads of oddities of course. Tories sweep Nottingham while Labour hold Crewe & Nantwich. I'll assume for the sake of my sanity that Carlisle is a very very very light Labour color (because I seem to recall recalling something along those lines), not a Liberal seat.
Also trying to make sense of the Ayrshire and Renfrewshire constituency boundaries.

Stranger than that; Labour gained Crewe & Nantwich, which was notionally Tory in 1979 (and not by about three votes). Dunwoody was quite the candidate. Labour did terribly in Notts in 1983 and 1987; look at Mansfield as well (and that was with a longserving right-wing MP).


That's right, yeah. Back then it was just the city proper, as you can see.

ant particular reason for Stockton South?

interesting that you can see a diagonal line from baisingstoke to crewe where the tory vote drops to the east of it, that'll be a stron SDP/Liberal showing I take it

Labour-turned-SDP MP defending; Conservative candidate turned out half-way during the election campaign to have been a relatively recent election candidate for the National Front.

One thing to note about the 1983 campaign: There was a big swing from Labour to the Alliance in the last two weeks or so (http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983), which probably allowed the Tories to win a bigger majority than they otherwise would have done. Oh, and isn't it interesting that the Labour and Alliance vote shares weren't all that different to the 2010 Labour and Lib Dem vote shares?

Much as in 2010 it's questionable how 'real' the Alliance's surge in the polls during the campaign actually was. There was a similar surge in 1987, though earlier in the campaign.

That's right, yeah. Also note that the Tory majorities in the Home Counties are not quite as huge as you'd expect for a landslide.

Someone has been kind enough to upload every election night programme from 1974-2010 in full on YouTube (and someone else has uploaded the 1970 programme too), so everytime a map is posted I'll link to the relevent playlist (that's if Al doesn't mind).

Election Night 1983. (http://www.youtube.com/user/ajs41#g/c/CDF259770B056CCD)

Probably the most accurate exit poll of all time?!

(Oh, and there are also shorter videos of the 1955, 1959, 1964 and 1966 election nights IIRC, so I'll post those too.)

I've no objection to those links being posted whatsoever.

And the Tories winning 37% in a amazing year for them as opposed to 43% says so much about what's been happening in the country since 1983 as well.

I have the BBC Parliament election replays of Elections 1955  - 2001 and the BBC election nights of 2005 and 2010 on video tape. I already have the 1955 general election in a format that computers can understand however, my upload speeds (330kbps) prevent me from uploading it onto YouTube

hmm, Clement Freud's constituency really stands out down in my part of the world, never realised that before.

What's with the boundaries of Norwich South, snaking off to the east along what I assume is the river?

For some reason a large stretch of the river is technically in Norwich.

Very interesting map. I'd love to see 2-way comparisons (Lab vs Torie, Lab vs Alliance, Torie vs Alliance) if it doesn't bother you too much. :)

21 Tory seats in 1983 :(


Boothroyd's map squishes Scotland. The Ayrshire boundaries remained untoched right through to 2005 and broadly untouched in the 1st Holyrood Review. Likewise with Renfrewshire, though Greenock was a seat by itself. Greenock at that time took in Port Glasgow but not Gourock or Cloch. Renfrew West and Inverclyde was therefore as Tory friendly a seat as you could create. Notionally in 1979 it was just Labour. Some have disputed that but given Norman Buchan's personal vote a narrow Labour win could have been likely. It was won by the Tories in 1983 but fell to Labour, somewhat unexpectedly in 1987.

The general patterns are very familiar. The details seem strangely distant, but only just out of reach, or perhaps as seen through mist. 1955:

()

Conservatives 345 seats, Labour 277 seats, Liberals 6 seats, Sinn Fein 2 seats.

The Conservative total includes the Ulster Unionists (not seen on this map) and 45 candidates who ran as National Liberal & Conservative.

Popular vote for the UK (I don't have the GB figures to hand and can't be bothered to look them up) - Conservatives 49.7%, Labour 46.4%, Liberal 2.7%

The Liberals ran just 110 candidates, meaning that most constituencies were two party Labour/Tory affairs, meaning that the meaning of the popular vote figure is quite different from that of an election after 1974.

The Tories were led by Anthony Eden (Warwick & Leamington) and Labour, somewhat surreally, by Clement Attlee (Walthamstow West). Attlee had led Labour for two decades and remained in post mostly to prevent Herbert Morrison from taking over. The Liberals were no longer an organised party in 1955 and were less than irrelevant (being utterly dependent on the Tories not opposing their few remaining MPs), but were technically led by Clement Davies (Montgomery).

As for context, this was still an election fought in a country still recovering from the War, but one lacking a genuine Post War feel. It is perhaps best seen as being the first election during the 'Golden Age of Capitalism', and in that respect it was an important one because it meant that the Tories would be the party to reap the full electoral benefits of the longest and deepest of economic booms. This was in large part due to Labour spending the bulk of the 1951-1955 parliament engaged in (yeah, familiar theme is familiar) a nasty civil war, as the Cold War froze sharp (and often strange) internal divisions in place. It was also because the Tories made the pragmatic decision that it was safer to accept the bulk of the Attlee government's work, and established a political settlement (never a consensus) in which they cast themselves as moderate and pragmatic. They also benefited from having the wildly popular Anthony Eden as their leader. Insert a fairly predictable remark about Suez and amphetamines about here.

To return to the opening comment about the oddly distant (but perhaps only just out of reach) details of the map, the great wave of post-war suburbanisation had only just begun. Middle class urban lifestyles had yet to penetrate most English agricultural districts, and many of said agricultural districts still had a very large rural proletariat. Most of the people who would bring their middle class lifestyles to rural England were still living in historically middle class districts of nearby cities. Sectarianism was still a factor in Glasgow and Liverpool, while the newly formed National Union of Mineworkers was one of the largest unions in the country. Ancient traditions of Working Class Toryism were still just about viable in and around Manchester, while the docks remained a major part of the economy and political geography of London. In most of Wales the Labour Party had a mass appeal that stretched well beyond normal class boundaries in part because the Attlee Government's policies had revived the near-dead Welsh economy (something that legitimised socialism to some most unlikely communities), while in Scotland the Unionists (as the Tories were then known there) reaped the rewards that came from their position as the Scottish patriotic party of record.

A clip of Eden taking part in a press conference during the campaign. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kq-_Bpl6Oy8)

The BBC election night programme coming to an end. Presented by Richard Dimbleby (who incidentally was the father of the current election night presenter David Dimbleby). (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2KPzymrD5s)

Liberal Party election broadcast. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOjhdW_6df8)

Conservative Party election broadcast. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UoZtZkVPQ8)

The mist seems particularly thick in mainland Scotland north of the Central Belt, Liverpool, rural Norfolk, and Doncaster.  It also seems strange from an early 21st century perspective not to have a single splash of yellow in the English countryside.

The two Tory seats in Sheffield would both have been Lib Dem on those boundaries in 2010.  Indeed the Boundary Commission's proposed boundary between West & Penistone and South-West has a certain retro flavour.

there's a few on that map that wouldn't look out of place in this year's review, Maldon and Witham?!? and that horseshoe thing arounf the edge of Southampton

I'm just ever so slightly curious. Do you still have it?

What I really want to see is series of maps of counties or groups of counties (say, ca.6-20odd constituencies) over the entire period, not the national maps. They're pretty, but hard to read in many places.

Is that a hint? :P

Oh, god, no. :P

At some point I will be doing more Inter War stuff. Have half a West Riding outline done.

Labour/Alliance map for 1983 (probably a good few mistakes). Going through the 1983 results, it's astonishing that Labour won a lot of the seats that they did in 1997 - they were on life support here.
()

I have nothing worthwhile to contribute, but I just thought I'd let you know how much I love this thread! Fantastic work in creating these maps!

Seconded.

Amazing that the Alliance held on to the Isle of Wight in 1983.  That seat is a Tory/Lib swing seat with a Tory lean, no?  Was it all due to... (checks Wikipedia)... Steve Ross's personal popularity?

There was a pretty huge national swing to the Liberals. The Tories actually lost % nation wide. 1983 wasn't exactly a good election for the Tories, just a horrific one for Labour - such is distorted by FPTP.

I think so actually; i'll need to dig it out.

I can produce a county tally for elections 1983 - 2010 if it would help save time?

1983 was still pretty good compared to previous Tory results after 1964...
But I think it is more accurate to say that 87 and 92 were their best elections (Scotland excluded), as they only lost 0.5% each time and gained raw votes (700'000, then 400'000), and ended up with an amazing 14.1 Million voters.
However , the fact that in the nine years between '83 and '92 Labour gained 3.2 Million votes from their postwar low eroded the governments FPTP majority to the bone.

I was thinking, maybe, of trying to put something together for 1918-1945.