Talk Elections

New Poll: New Mexico President by Rasmussen on 2012-02-14 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3520120214016)

Summary: D: 55%, R: 37%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2012_new_mexico_president)

55% - Barack Obama (D)

37% - Rick Santorum (R)



55% - Barack Obama (D)

36% - Mitt Romney (R)

This might be good news downballot for Heinrich's Senate chances.

Damn, New Mexico has changed in eight years from a Bush state to a mini-California.

Oh the trends in the Southwest and even the West generally are just wonderful aren't they!

What's even better:

With all the positive polling coming out of NM & MI recently, the Obama campaign can expand the playing field into states like AZ, MO, IN, SC and GA - previously solid GOP - and force the Republicans to spend tons of money there (where they actually shouldn't have to worry about).

LOLROMNEY.

Isn't it awesome what the CARLHAYDENs are doing for the Democrats?

This is definitely a huge disaster for the GOP. They are losing love fast in the fastest growing parts of the country .

Whoa, you mean demonizing the fastest growing group of voters in the country constantly for a decade straight has adverse electoral consequences? Who'd have thunk it!

This is hopefully good news with regards to the senate and house races there too.

you often see NM on people's maps as "lean" or even still a swing state. Those days are over apparently. Within a generation NV, AZ and CO will also eventually join the west coast in becoming a solid Dem wall...unless the GOP stops talking about English as a national language, anchor babies, deporting millions, etc.

Bullsh**t poll without Gary Johnson in the question.

It makes no difference rather Johnson is in the poll, Obama would still win the state.

+1

Obama's margin of victory here is almost certainly larger than what Johnson's vote total would be, and Johnson obviously wouldn't just be taking votes from Obama. And anyway, I doubt Johnson would be a major factor, even in NM: just because a bunch of Libertarians on an obscure Internet forum think he's Jesus doesn't mean that he'll get any traction or that the media will take him seriously.

But Johnson would take more votes off the Republican.....

+2

Demonizing the NVGonzalezes will lose you the west.

Judging by your social + fiscal score, there was never any chance...

It makes no difference whether you bother polling NM or not, Obama would still win the state.

Not the point.  This poll is to show relative position and Johnson could change it materially.  I will be shocked if he doesn't get 10% in November.

Once the west becomes a DEM stronghold, it will become 3rd world status, watch it happen.  Give it another 40 years.

For him probably not. But Hispanics overall, not necessarily.

I live in a Dem stronghold. My town was 87-11 in 2008. It's nice here.

Yeah and McCain didn't even get double digits in my precinct. I like it here.

The "third world" areas of the United States are pretty evenly distributed between red and blue, IMO. You have the ghettos of Baltimore or Detroit on one hand and then dirt poor white people in Appalachia on the other. Of course I doubt very many people in either of these areas actually vote.

Not a majority, but a respectable % of the Hispanic community would be willing to buy into Santorum-style GOP politics, though probably not as extreme.  That's why Bush did so well. 

Still works with the strike.

Like BRTD said, maybe not in his specific case, but social conservatism has a chance of working with Hispanics. The whole birth control issue isn't going to help Republicans since the only catholics willing to change their vote from Democrat to Republican would be Hispanic, and I doubt they will vote Republican due to other reasons. White, very religious social conservative catholics have basically all become Republican anyways.

Haha, so more brown people means automatic "3rd world" eh? Stop being racist please.

Yeah, but I doubt the al-Qaeda-in-South-America thing will play all that well.  Santorum has an "others" problem, as does the GOP generally.  The level of support for Dems in national races, and to a lesser extent in statewide races, is directly related to the GOP's immigration posturing.

It's hard to be for "sending back the illegals" when that "illegal" is your neighbor or your brother-in-law.

Your racism is showing.

The GOP fails badly on issues of equity and human development. The Republicans simply want lower wages whatever the people. If you are a poor white, then the Reactionary Party is not your friend.

That Bush victory in 2004 was also by a ~1% margin too.

Yes, but it was a long swing state. The margin in 2000 was even closer than in FL (not by percent though). It seems to say something  that this is no longer the case. But NM is a lot like northern New England in that it has its own dynamics that make it hard to extrapolate onto other states.

In a decade, that 2004 result will seem like Iowa 1988, but without an obvious reason.


It's kind of hilarious to think that things are the way they are on the rez because they vote Democratic there and not the other way around.

Exactly. The regular hispanic voter usually would be at -1.0 socially maybe even at 0 and -3.0 fiscally. However, their 2 main concerns right now are of course the economy and immigration and while around 30-40% of swing hispanics may buy into the frothy trash due to them being 95% Catholic....


This is exactly why hispanics are becoming solidly Democratic.