Talk Elections

I would like to know (as candidates are starting to declare themselves for these elections) if I may be permitted to generate a map for the elections and the results (were suited) based on the 2010 general and 2011 devolved assembly elections as a base for the elections come November?

While I have the chance to do so =


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_and_Wales_Police_and_Crime_Commissioner_elections,_2012

This will all end in tears.

Yep, seen the title and groaned.

Oh it'll be fiiiiiine

Corrected

Wait until we start getting the candidates selected. Then the fun will start. Mark my words!






[cough]

Police areas in England and Wales are still largely based on the 1974 patterns of local government.  Here's a list of the areas having elections:

Northumbria - Northumberland; Tyne & Wear
Durham - includes Darlington but not the "Cleveland" unitaries
Cleveland - Stockton, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar & Cleveland
Cumbria
Lancashire - includes the 1990s unitaries of Blackpool and Blackburn with Darwen
Merseyside
Greater Manchester
North Yorkshire - includes York
Humberside - the East Riding including Hull, N Lincs, NE Lincs
West Yorkshire
South Yorkshire
Derbyshire - includes the City of Derby
Nottinghamshire - includes the City of Nottingham
Lincolnshire - just the County Council area
Leicestershire - includes Rutland and the City of Leicester
Cheshire - Cheshire East, Cheshire West & Chester, Halton, Warrington
Staffordshire - includes Stoke
West Midlands - the Metropolitan County
West Mercia - Shropshire including Telford & Wrekin, Herefordshire, Worcestershire
Warwickshire
Northamptonshire
Norfolk
Suffolk
Cambridgeshire - includes Peterborough
Essex - includes Thurrock and Southend
Bedfordshire - Bedford, Central Beds, Luton
Hertfordshire
Thames Valley - Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire including Milton Keynes, the Berkshire unitaries
Gloucestershire - excludes South Glos
Avon & Somerset - Somerset, B&NES, North Somerset, Bristol, South Glos
Devon & Cornwall - includes the Plymouth and Torbay unitaries
Wiltshire - includes Swindon
Dorset - includes the Poole and Bournemouth unitaries
Hampshire - includes the Portsmouth and Southampton unitaries and the Isle of Wight
Surrey
Sussex - both East and West, and Brighton & Hove
Kent - includes the Medway unitary

South Wales - Cardiff, Swansea, Vale of Glamorgan, Neath Port Talbot, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil
Gwent - Monmouthshire, Newport, Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly
Dyfed-Powys - Powys, Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire
North Wales - Flintshire, Wrexham, Denbighshire, Conwy, Gwynedd, Ynys Môn

muahaha, this is going to be such a trainwreck.

Maybe initially, but not for long. Bringing the political supervision of the police into the limelight (which is what can't not happen given personal electoral mandates) will have consequences, and they will probably not be the sort that are well liked. It's only a matter of time before there are calls for the system to be 'reformed'.

Fundamentally, the current system (the police authority model) is a bad system, but it's not bad enough to require an urgent overhaul and it hasn't been without its better features.

So does that mean I may be permitted or not?

I agree with Al.  This is a seriously bad idea which should never have got out of whichever think tank dreamed it up.  Running police should be left to the professionals.

Go for it, Harry, nobody seems to be against the idea that I can see.

I think he has been told before that he doesn't need permission to create maps here, and he'll be told if anything else he does was not okay. He just needs to get that into his somewhat thickish skull. :)

So, just how bad do people think the turnout will be for these?

I'm also tempted to speculate on which police area elects the craziest Commissioner...

I note with mounting horror that James Anderton is still alive.

Are these partisan elections?

Yes. I seem to recall that the LibDems have said that they won't be running anyone, but then none would get elected anyway.

Alun Michael wants to stand for Labour in South Wales (so that's a partisan election in South Wales)

What an excellent way to run the police.

It seems the Conservatives have attracted around 220 applications so far.
http://alturl.com/erwyd
As for the main theme of that article, I am not sure what kind of candidates they exepected to attract!

Other than Alun Michael in Wales, another sitting Labour MP who is trying to get the party nomination is Tony Llody in Greater Manchester.
Labour also have a series of former MPs who applied for selection: John Presccot (well, I know you know him), Jane Kennedy (Liverpool Wavertree 1992-2010), Peter Kilfoyle (Liverpool Walton 1991-2010), Paddy Tipping (Sherwood 1992-2010), James Plaskitt (Warwick and Leamington 1997-2010) and Ian Cawsey (Brigg & Goole 1997-2010) .
There were rumours Vera Baird (the one who lost Redcar in 2010 GE) is considering running in Northumbria selection.

Are Labour holding primaries or just normal selections?

I think normal selections.
They have apparently received around 150 applications overall. A NEC panel will draw up shortlists and then postal ballot papers will be sent out along with internal elections (NEC/NPF) papers in June.

Oh good, that's what I meant. Assumed normal members would get a vote.

One person trying to get the Labour nomination in South Yorkshire (where you have to assume that the Labour nomination is a pretty good start at winning the election) is former Chief Constable of the force Meredydd Hughes.

Ray Mallon as police commissioner for Cleveland.  Cat, meet pigeons.


(facepalm)

These are intended to be people with real power.  I don't want my police force to be run by a drag act.

Tony Lloyd selected as Labour candidate for Greater Manchester:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-17416309

Does he have to stand down as an MP to stand or only if he wins?

I think Labour NEC (actually one of its subcommittees) decided last week that their MPs selected as PC (or Mayoral) candidates will have to stand down before the election

OK, so we have a Manchester Central by-election to look forward to.  My guess would be that Labour's plan will be to hold it on the same day as the Police Commissioner election in November.

The Police Foundation has a list of speculated/confirmed/shortlisted candidates:
http://www.police-foundation.org.uk/files/POLICE0001/policy%20work/PCC%20candidates.pdf

The information seems most comprehensive about Labour.  I presume we will actually have non-Labour candidates in South Yorks, though whether there are any who are more than paper candidates remains to be seen.

Got my primary ballot today. Great.

Just voted online, forgot today was the ballot deadline!

Voted for Jane Kennedy, not that i'm enthusiastic for either candidate. I'll be living at uni in November anyway.

I think they moved the deadline to Friday (at least they did it for NEC/NPF elections). LabourList thinks PC results will be available on Sunday (they will be announced by the regional parties, so they won't pop up all together at the same time).

First Tory candidates being selected this weekend

Avon & Somerset: Ken Maddock (former Somerset Council Leader)
Warwickshire: Fraser Pithi (a former special constable and county councillor)
Northamptonshire: Adam Simmonds (a county council officer)

Hampshire final 2: former MP Michael Mates and Portsmouth Cllr Donna Jones

Srsly?

Rotherham Cllr Shaun Wright has won Labour nomination today.
Harriet Yeo (Ashford Cllr/NEC member in the trade union section) has won the Kent selection

Labour selection results

Avon and Somerset: Ashford 891 Savage 505

Bedfordshire: Martins 511 Heffernan 190   
          
Cambridgeshire: Ed Murphy 265 Rogers 241    

Cheshire: Stockton 471 Carter 375
     
Cleveland: Coppinger 523 Brash 157

Cumbria: Leonard 225 Boaden 190

Derbyshire: Charles 695 Dhindsa 365 Salt 133

Devon and Cornwall: Nicky Williams 591 Canavan 312
     
Dyfed Powys: Christine Gwyther unopposed   

Dorset: Rachel Rogers unopposed

Durham       
Round 1: Hogg 423 Dixon 330 Thompson 311       
Round 2: Hogg 536 Dixon 427    

Essex: Cook 449 Newell 355        

Gloucestershire: Rupi Dhanda unopposed
          
Greater Manchester: Lloyd unopposed
       
Gwent: Sandison 494 Worrad 306

Hampshire: Rayment 576 Hagger 335         

Hertfordshire: Sherma Batson unopposed   

Humberside: Prescott 552 Hunter 458

Kent: Yeo 711 Bates 241     

Lancashire
Round 1:  Grunshaw 820 Master 532 Atkinson 342
Round 2: Grunshaw 966 Master 663
Leicestershire: Sarah Russel unopposed

Lincolnshire: Dilks 218 Gleeson 97

Merseyside         
Round 1: Kennedy 892 Kilfoyle 745 Weightman 254
Round 2: Kennedy 974 Kilfoyle 833

Norfolk: Morphew 337 Burke 232         

Northamptonshire: Barron 212 Caseman-Jones 176

Northumbria: Baird 1921 Foster 635   
   
North Wales: Tal Michael 548 Hanson 276     

North Yorkshire: Ruth Potter unopposed

Nottinghamshire:Tipping 892 Mohammed 841

Surrey: Robert Evans unopposed     
          
Sussex: Daniel 679 Richards 554         

Staffordshire: Garner 402 votes Poulter 351   

South Wales: Alun Michael 1142 Cannon 1058  

South Yorkshire
Round 1 Wright 972 Walaya 622 Billings 461 Hughes 382
Round 2 Wright 116 Walays 671 Billings 592
Round 3 Wright 1353 Walaya 861

Suffolk: Jane Basham unopposed
       
Thames Valley: Starkey 614 Harvey 590   
   
Warwickshire: Plaskitt 291 Edwards 102
   
West Mercia: Simon Murphy unopposed
      
West Midlands: Jones 1580 Mosquito 827

West Yorkshire: Mark Burns Williamson unopposed

Wiltshire: Clare Moody unopposed

Yeah, North Wales selection was never going to be close.

All Labour results now in.

It was much closer for Michael Sr than Michael Jr.
Former MPs trying a comeback: Prescott, Jane Kennedy (who beated Peter Kilfoyle), Vera Baird (the Redcar one), Paddy Tipping (close result in Nottinghamshire), James Plaskitt.
2 sitting MPs going for it: Alun Michael and Tony Lloyd.

Women in winnable areas: Jane Kennedy, Sarah Russell, Vera Baird..and I think that's it. Ken may be a step still too far for Labour.

Some were a bit surprised by Jones beating Mosquito in West Midlands but I think she got very few votes outside Birmingham and I wouldn't be surprised if not all Birmingham communities supported her.

and won selection

()

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/07/13/whose-bright-idea-was-elected-police-and-crime-commissioners/

No one's, unless you're using a rather odd definition of "bright".

Wow. This might be even stupider than electing judges. The only other office I've heard that it's even stupider to elect that some places do is coroner (even more amusingly it's sometimes a partisan position, just like this.)

I'm giving some thought to making a few 'Burrell for Police Commissioner' signs.

The way things are going in Dyfed Powys Nicholas Bourne (Con) Christine Gwyther (Lab) Helen Mary Jones (Plaid) James Adams (Ind) I am getting more and more tempted to cast the ultimate spolit ballot

First Preference: Adams 4 Bourne 4 Gwyther 4 Mary Jones 4
Second Preference: Adams 4 Bourne 4 Gwyther 4 Mary Jones 4

In other words, these elections should be scrapped the whole leglisation reviewed in Parliament as soon as possible

I'm opting for abstention, in the hope that ridiculously low turnouts will discredit them (if they even need to be).

It is incredibly stupid, but perhaps not quite as incredibly so as it might look to American eyes: the position being elected is to be responsible for oversight of local policing policy, and not the equivalent of a police commissioner in America (or, you know, London).

The Labour candidate in Avon and Somerset has been forced to withdraw because of two minor offences he was convicted of at the age of 13, 46 years ago.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/aug/08/bob-ashford-labour-police-commissioner

I tend to think that the position should be open to ex-cons only.

Asil Nadir has been found guilty. This has interesting implications for the election in Hampshire...

how exactly?

The Tory candidate, former MP Michael Mates, has some history there.

An end of Summer recap...

Lab candidate in Avon & Somerset withdraws because of a minor offence he committed 45 years ago.
Lab candidate in Derbyshire withdraws because of a minor offence he committed 47 years ago. However it's then established that said minor offence wasn't worthy of a disqualification and so he's back in the race.
Con candidate in Cambridgeshire withdraws because he's not a party member and some local party activists wanted him to join the party
Con candidate in Nottinghamshire withdraws  because of a minor offence he committed 44 years ago.

There's still lots of time until November....

News from the Electoral Commission that might be of interest. The count will be a dual count (i.e like the European Elections) which each local authority announcing full first and second preference counts at their local count centres as well as the regional count centre. Here in Dyfed Powys, that means there will be counts held at Aberaeron (Ceredigion), Llanelli (Carmarthenshire) and Welshpool (Powys) with the head count being organised by Pembrokeshire (and so will be held at Haverfordwest). As the Lib Dems seem highly unlikely to field a candidate, I have filled in an oberserver application form in the hope of going along (if my sciatica has cleared up by then) and hopefully blogging / tweeting the results live

That's not what's happening in Greater Manchester - the ballot papers are being verified in each borough but all the actual counting is taking place at the G-Mex Manchester Central the following day.

In order to reduce costs the returning officer recruited the entire counting team from the Salford mayoral election in May, as they are the only people in Greater Manchester with experience of counting SV; then the returning officer decided to spend money training SV to all the counters, including the Salford team. :P

What a very Tory way to advertise these elections:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qT-ywCilmdA&feature=plcp

Does anyone have any idea what the most detailed geographical breakdown we may be able to get of the results will be?

Good God, what a horrible idea these elections are.

I wouldn't count on anything better than local authority.

The consensus seems to be that these elections are a bad idea. But they are happening, so in general I would expect:

Very low turnout / awareness / understanding of voting system

Voting patterns will be similar to local elections, Labour win the mets, northern counties and Wales, Tories win southern counties, etc.

Lib Dems do quite badly, if they even have a candidate

Independents and minor parties may do well, but it would take a remarkably strong campaign for an Independent to win. These are very large areas for an Independent to organise a campaign in.

Having said that the SV system may produce some odd results, one or two Independents may get elected.

I wouldn't be surprised if the post is abolished after one term of office anyway.

()

I think AV was explained in more detail during the referendum than SV has been at all throughout the 'campaign'

There will be some almighty bonkers results I suggest (and fear)

The Electoral Commission's website has a spreadsheet that shows all the verification and counting times and I get the impression the lowest level will be local authority (although that said for Birmingham it says that the verification will be held in "19 different venues across Birmingham") so whether Birmingham is doing it on constituency or not I cannot say.

Nobody wanted these elections and the government couldn't have handled them worse. However since  we had to have them, why didn't the government allow them to take place with the locals? How many people are going to vote on a dark, cold November Night?

 I think Labour will have a very good night but with the turnout so low maybe the likes of UKIP have a chance?

I do wonder vaguely about some of the West Country police authorities: a lot of people who are basically conservative but like to cast protest votes against London and who's traditional choice of protest party is now part of the government.

(welcome to the forum, btw)

Yep, and since Labour basically don't exist in the West County, I doubt they will get many protest votes. The votes will have to go somewhere and since the public are on the whole right wing about crime, UKIP have a shot.

Thanks

Don't worry, it's not as if anyone is going to bother to vote .......

Got my polling card today. My polling station is in the downstairs of my Halls of Residence. Handy.

Not sure if people already know this, but I got a reply from the electoral commission confirming that these elections fall under the same rules as local elections, i.e. students registered at home and at university can vote at both addresses as long as they are in different police areas.


Anyway, the candidates so far seem uninspiring, underqualified, or both. Not quite sure what to do, even though the results in both areas are fairly certain. Maybe it's time to have a serious look at the Loonies.

There's always a silver lining...

Statements of Persons Nominated emerged so far
Today was the deadline to submit nominations.
Statements of persons nominated published so far point towards the following picture:

Dyfed-Powys: Lab/Con
Kent: Ind/Ind/Con/EngDem/UKIP/Lab
West Mercia: Con/Ind/Lab
Warwickshire: Ind/Con/Lab
South Yorkshire: EngDem/UKIP/Con/LD/Lab
South Wales: Ind/Con/Lab/Ind
Leicestershire: Con/Ind/Lab
Whiltshire: LD/Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind/ind
Dorset: LD/Con/Lab/Ind
Gwent: Ind/Lab/Con/Ind
Thames Valley: Ind/UKIp/Ind/LD/Con/Lab
Surrey: Lab/Zero Tolerance Policing ex Chief/Con/LD/UKIP/Ind
Northamptonshire: Lab/UKIP/Ind/Con/LD
Cheshire: LD/UKIP/Con/Ind/Lab
Hampshire: LD/Ind/Justice and Anti-Corruption Party/Con/Lab/UKIP
Sussex: UKIP/Con/Ind/Lab/LD
West Midlands: Con/UKIP/Ind/Lab/LD/Ind/Ind
West Yorkshire: Lab/Con/Ind/LD
Cleveland: Ind/Lab/Con/Green
Cambridgeshire: Ind/Con/UKIP/EngDem/Ind/LD/Lab
Essex: Con/Ind/Lab/UKIP/Ind/EngDem
North Wales: Ind/Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind
Derbyshire: Lab/UKIP/Ind/Con/Ind
Nottinghamshire: Ind/Con/Ind/Lab
Bedfordshire: British Freedom Party/LD/Lab/Con/Ind
Lancashire: LD/Con/UKIP/Lab
Humberside: UKIP/LD/Ind/Ind/Con/Lab/Ind
Cumbria: LD/Lab/Con/Ind
Greater Manchester: LD/Lab/Ind/Con/UKIP
Northumbria: LD/Lab/UKIP/Con
Devon and Cornwall: LD/Ind/Ind/Con/Ind/Ind/Ind/Ind/UKIP/Lab
Merseyside: Con/UKIP/LD/Lab/Ind/EngDem

That's very helpful indeed thanks Andrea. That means we have candidates from Con, Lab, Lib Dem, Green, UKIP, English Democrats and a myriad of Independents. What we don't have is the SNP (for obvious reasons), the BNP (again for obvious reasons) but perhaps rather more mysterious is the absence of Plaid. Based on the Assembly elections, they would have had a very good chance in both North Wales and Dyfed Powys. Can anyone shed any light on that mystery?

Ugh.  I have a particular dislike for the English Democrats, and a sort of paranoid fear involving  them and low turnout SV elections.


Is that the registered description of a political party?

Until yesterday I didn't even realize they were boycotting these elections.
AT their recent conference they discussed the matter and confirmed their decision not to stand. Here's the statement from a party spokesperon:

A discussion was had during the conference which confirmed the party's earlier decision not to stand police commissioners. The party has long opposed the introduction of elected police and crime commissioners because of the real danger that it could lead to the politicisation of policing. The party also believes that their establishment is not a good use of policing and financial resources at a time of such damaging public sector cuts. The decision not to stand candidates was taken following widespread discussion within the party over the past months

It's not really worth their while standing candidates anyway.

Yes it is.

Registered specifically for this election by Kevin Hurley of Surrey, listed as party leader in the register.

Curiously one Green is standing despite his party's opposition to elected commissioners.

The English Dems seem to be the only party using an additional slogan: "More Police - Catching Criminals!"

Of the 33 areas that have published lists so far, UKIP have 21 candidates, LDs 20.

Six Independents in Devon & Cornwall is going to be a mess!

Blair (not that one) calls for boycott (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20020451)

Suffolk Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind
Gloucs. Con/Lab/LD/Ind
Norfolk Con/Lab/LD/UKIP/Ind
Staffs. Con/Lab
N. Yorks. Con/Lab
Durham Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind
Avon/Som. Con/Lab/LD/Ind
Herts. Con/Lab/LD/UKIP
Lincs. Con/Lab/Ind/Ind/"Campaign to stop politicians running policing"

Two more areas will not have the delights of SV

So that's a grand total of:
Con 41
Lab 41
LD 24
UKIP 24
Ind 54
Eng Dems 5
Green 1
BFP 1
Justice & Anti-Corruption 1
Zero Tolerance Policing 1
Campaign to Stop Politicians Running Policing 1

One of Plaid's AMs has endorsed Tal Michael. You do not win a prize for successfully guessing which one...

Some discussion of possible results on LabourList (http://labourlist.org/2012/10/a-highly-unpredictable-set-of-elections/)

From that article, just based on 2010 results, Labour would have won Merseyside, South Wales, Gwent, Greater Manchester, Cleveland, West Midlands, West Yorkshire, North Wales, Nottinghamshire, Durham, Northumbria and South Yorkshire, the Lib Dems would have won Avon & Somerset, and the Tories everywhere else.

If the turnout is as low as some people are suggesting (there's a suggestion that it could be as low as 10%, which sounds like expectation management to me) then I suppose other elections in some areas could cause differential turnout effects on the results, e.g. the Bristol mayoral election in Avon & Somerset and the Corby by-election in Northants.  Both of those would tend to help Labour, though they might need a lot of helping in both cases.

Anyone who even tries to use these results to weigh up 2015 is insane.

... or a hack for whichever party the results make look good.

Although, it should be accepted that it'd be shocking if the LibDems won anywhere...

Make no mistake, people will try and spin these results as good/bad/otherwise.

The fact that they're in England and Wales only, using two different voting systems, without a full slate by all parties, mean nowt.

They are not using two different voting systems - it's just that SV (or even AV) with two candidates is indistuingishable from fptp.

There are candidate statements on http://www.choosemypcc.org.uk/

I haven't found any obvious nutters among the Independents yet, but I haven't looked very hard.

I love how the BNP have jumped on the "we don't like politicised police" bandwagon because they can't afford to run candidates.

It's the Mervyn Barrett's I want to find, but unfortunately it's next to impossible.

Labour candidate in Northamptonshire committed a minor offence 20+ years ago and didn't tell it earlier. It's too late to withdraw, so he will stay on the ballot paper.

()

I feel like the government's trying to punk us with these elections.

Bloody hell, only just found out that they're using SV as well. If that's the case, I'm voting independent for first choice in protest.

100% not voting.

This is just another layer for the Tories to blame when their stupid ideas mess up. Like the guy at the Border Agency who carried out Theresa May's orders. Then when it went wrong, she denied knowledge and sacked him. Another case of rich people sacking the servants.

By having elected people who may or may not know anything at all about the intricacies of policing. The Tories are putting up patsies, for when their ideologically driven ideas go wrong. Rather than take the blame they can then pass it all onto whatever patsy is in charge of wherever the shirt hits the fan.

Voting for a Police Commissioner, is a vote for Tory dogma. So I will not be voting.

Alexmanu, you are slightly wrong with the Border Agency case. It was clear that he had gone beyond the instructions he had been given. Whether Theresa May was completely innocent is a matter for another thread

In any case, I doubt every winning Commissioner would be a Conservative, either, so you might  be misguided to label them all proponents of Tory dogma (whatever that may be)

BUT, all that said, I'm not entirely sure that I'd be voting with great enthusiasm either!

I admire the whole "vote for everything" idea the proponent of this, Daniel Hannan MEP and Douglas Carlswell MP, imported from across the pond, but they should have at least held this on local election day.

Why do you admire it, when it will not improve anything and will likely result in problems in some areas, possibly serious ones? Back when oversight of policing was controlled by the Watch Committees of the relevant local authorities, there were sometimes problems of a sort that is not healthy to have. And that was without a personal mandate for a single individual. Police Authorities aren't perfect, but as a least-worst option...

It's not "vote for everything", is it? It's vote for offering some needless figurehead a disgustingly high salary at a time of mass redundancies. Why? As manualex says, it's chiefly so government gets to wash its hands of failures, and use that high wage to demand the impossible. 

If it were actually "vote for everything" you can bet those nominally libertarian twats wouldn't be found supporting it.

I say every single police officer should be up for reelection by the residents of his beat every other week. ;D

I expect a very low voter turnout for this.

()

Ipsos-MORI have done a poll on the Police Commissioner Elections

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/crime-police-and-crime-commissioners-poll-topline-2012.pdf

Voting intention:
Ind* 30%
Lab 16%
Con 8%
LD 4%
UKIP 1%
Would not vote 27%
Don't know 11%

* Exact wording: "A candidate that is not representing a political party"

38% said they had not even heard of these elections

On a 1-10 scale of likelihood to vote, only 15% answered 10 (absolutely certain to vote)

The local drama seems to be focused on "where Mates really lives?"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/michael-mates-police-poll-fraud-1424253

On Twitter this evening Vaughan Roderick (BBC Cymru Welsh politics expert) said that he expects somewhere in Wales to set a new low turnout record (currently at 9%). If one place were to break that then Ceredigion would be a prime candidate. In the local elections there were just 2,000 Con and Lab votes (out of an electorate of 64,000).

Time for a bit of nose holding, I think.

Just voted. Only one other voter in the station (while I was there), who seemed to be confused about the voting system.

I was the 24th voter at around midday (which led me to project a 9% turnout at the end of the day). Our polling station is roughly average for Ceredigion (so it's not looking promising)

There was another voter in your polling station? Remarkable.

That is actually the first anecdote I've came across that didn't have the polling station empty beyond them and staff.

My local polling station in the Avon & Somerset area had 10% turnout by 5pm. Polling stations in the area generally seemed deserted.

Turnout may be higher in Bristol due to the Mayoral election, so we may possibly get up to around 20% turnout overall in Avon & Somerset.

What's even more remarkable is the fact that she wasn't white.

There were actually two in mine when I voted this morning, though it looked deserted when I walked past just now.  From a quick glance at the sheet it looked like early turnout was worse than for a normal local election but not completely horrendous.  (This is a fairly high turnout area.)

Polls are now closed, and no one cares. Not even a mention on the Sky News headlines.

There were two other voters when I spoiled my ballot at my polling station at 6pm. I should mention this is in a high turnout area..

Reports of polling stations with no votes cast in some areas.

In Avon & Somerset the Independent is clearly ahead, with around 40% of first preferences, and seems very likely to win tomorrow

Turnout is around 18%

Wiltshire was the only area to count overnight. The Tory won fairly easily, but turnout was under 16%.  I'd have thought that would have been one of the higher ones; what's Merseyside going to be?

Some more turnout news (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20352539)

Inds/UKIP got 30% but it was split three ways. Areas with only one Independent will see them do very well.

According to the Bournemouth Echo the Independent is well ahead in Dorset.

Yes, I think a lot of independents are likely to benefit from a general feeling that this sort of thing ought not be 'political'.

Can we just abolish these posts now to save bothering with it later?

From early results, there has been a significant (2-4%) number of spoiled ballots.

Sussex first count:

Tony Armstrong, UKIP 29,327 votes (15%)
Katy Elizabeth Bourne, The Conservative Party Candidate - 59,635 votes (32%)
Ian Chisnall, Independent 38,930 votes (21%)
Godfrey Daniel, Labour Party Candidate - 40,765 votes (22%)
David Rogers, Liberal Democrat 20,579 votes (11%)
Turnout: 15.82%

Any good sites for results? Or hasn't anywhere bothered.


BTW, I voted yesterday. My polling stations in my Uni Halls' reception, didn't see many strikes on their list at all...

Looking like the Independent will get about 35% of 1st prefs. in Avon & Somerset. Not clear who will be in the no. 2 spot, but Independent very likely to win on 2nd prefs.

Independents win Gwent and Dorset

Cameron's response to the low turnout is beyond a joke. Just watching him on the BBC.

Omnishambles.

That's now in the OED, BTW.

Sussex results are reported by Local Authority (via the Brighton & Hove City Council website). Does anyone know of any others doing so? If so I can make a map..

Cambridgeshire 1st preferences - Sir Graham Bright and Ed Murphy go through to second round (as well as my second preference vote). All 7 candidates held their deposit.

Con 23731 (25.9%)
Lab 17576 (19.2%)
UKIP 14504 (15.8%)
Ind (Ali) 12706 (13.9%)
Lib Dem 7530 (8.2%)
Eng Dem 7219 (7.9%)
Ind (Mohammed) 5337 (5.8%)
Rejected 2892 (3.2%)

By district:
Cambridge: L 31.6% - LD 17.9% - C 16.9% - Ali 12.9% - UKIP 8.1% - ED 4.4% - Mohammed 3.7% - Rejected 4.6%
Peterborough: L 22.5% - C 20.9% - Ali 16.0% - Mohammed 12.3% - UKIP 11.9% - ED 9.9% - LD 3.2% - Rejected 2.3%
East Cambs: C 32.3% - UKIP 17.2% - L 13.6% - Ali 12.6% - LD 10.6% - ED 7.2% - Mohammed 3.3% - Rejected 3.1%
South Cambs: C 29.4% - L 16.3% - UKIP 15.2% - Ali 14.1% - LD 11.0% - ED 6.3% - Mohammed 3.7% - Rejected 4.0%
Hunts: C 29.9% - UKIP 22.7% - Ali 15.1% - L 12.5% - ED 7.1% - LD 5.9% - Mohammed 3.8% - Rejected 2.9%
Fenland: C 30.6% - UKIP 22.2% - L 17.0% - ED 12.7% - Ali 8.2% - LD 4.1% - Mohammed 3.2% - Rejected 2.0%

Turnout: 15.25% (Pboro 17.45%, SCambs 15.9%, Hunts 15.31%, Cbridge 14.69%, Fenland 12.98%, ECambs 12.93%)

Prescott's lost to the Tory.

North Wales Independent beats Labour candidiate, wins- Reveals himself to be card carrying LibDem!!

was there not supposed to be a Raving Loony?

Lord Toby Jug was mentioned as a candidate early on but didn't run in the end, not sure why. Maybe the deposit was just too much and they wanted to concentrate on the Manchester by-election.

After 2nd preferences - Sir Graham Bright (Con) 31640, Ed Murphy (Lab) 25114. Rather underwhelming win for the Tories I think.

Perhaps they realised that there was no point in running anyone as the elections were likely to be a big enough joke in their own right?

this sounds likely too - from Lord Toby Jug's twitter:

He makes a valuable point. I only voted because the polling station is literally on the other side of the street from my flat.

Has been something of a farce hasn't it. My Oxfordshire village polling station (electorate 1895) had a pretty low turnout: At 8:45 last night, I was given ballot #78. Naturally I was the only one present. I spent some time with the polling staff chatting and we worked out that it had cost about £3 per vote to run the polling station (just in their wages)

Results (Devon & Cornwall now in).  Turnout embarrassingly low of course.

Northumbria - Labour
Durham - Labour
Cleveland - Labour
Cumbria - Tory
Lancashire - Labour
Merseyside - Labour
Greater Manchester - Labour
North Yorkshire - Tory
Humberside - Tory; Prescott lost.
West Yorkshire - Labour
South Yorkshire - Labour
Derbyshire - Labour
Nottinghamshire - Labour (ex MP Paddy Tipping)
Lincolnshire - Independent
Leicestershire - Tory
Cheshire - Tory
Staffordshire - Tory
West Midlands - Labour
West Mercia - Independent
Warwickshire - Independent
Northamptonshire - Tory
Norfolk - Independent
Suffolk - Tory
Cambridgeshire - Tory
Essex - Tory
Bedfordshire - Labour
Hertfordshire - Tory
Thames Valley - Tory
Gloucestershire - Independent
Avon & Somerset - Independent
Devon & Cornwall - Tory
Wiltshire - Tory
Dorset - Independent
Hampshire - Independent; Michael Mates lost.
Surrey - Zero Tolerance
Sussex - Tory
Kent - Independent

South Wales - Labour
Gwent - Independent
Dyfed-Powys - Tory
North Wales - Independent

http://www.aylesburyvaledc.gov.uk/democracy/election/2 for Thames Valley

I had no vote at all - the Metropolitan Police District isn't getting an elected PCC.

Highest turnout seems to have been Northamptonshire (for obvious reasons) with 20%, followed by Humberside (perhaps Tories turned out to vote against Prescott?).  Lowest seems to have been Staffordshire with 11.6%.

(Based on BBC figures)

I'm gathering that data as we speak (currently up to 84 out of 315). When I have all 315 I shall be more than happy to send it to you.

So basically independents and Tories win in Tory areas and Labour win in Labour areas with Humberside ('it lives'!) and Dyfed/Powys being curious.

The East Riding unitary is very Tory, and turnout there was high not quite as ridiculously low as in most other places.  As I said I suspect Labour's choice of candidate may have motivated Tories more than their own supporters there.  (And the area voted Tory in 2010.)

Dyfed/Powys was actually Lib Dem based on 2010 results IIRC, but they didn't stand.  I don't find that result particularly surprising given it was Lab v Con.

As well as H*mb*rs*d*, Cumbria and Staffordshire look a bit disappointing for Labour, but Bedfordshire was good for them.

Apparently the winning Independent in North Wales is a Lib Dem member.  I fear some of the other Independents will turn out to be crazy, having managed to get elected on the votes of people who think that voting for an Independent is a good way of expressing the view that the police shouldn't be politicised.

Here's SV in action in Devon & Cornwall.

First round:
Con 55,527
Ind G 24,719
Lab 24,196
LD 23,948
UKIP 16,433
Ind J 12,382
Ind Mo 10,586
Ind S 10,171
Ind C 8,667
Ind Mc 4,306

So at this point everybody but Greenslade and the Tory gets eliminated, and the second preferences of anybody who didn't have one of those in the top two are ignored.

Second round:
Con 69,419
Ind G 37,243

I make that 44% of votes (of those which counted in the first round) not counting in the second round.

Dyfed/Powys was always going to be curious given the high LD/Plaid base there's there.

Cheshire can be added to Cumbria, Humberside and Staffs as a Labour hope ended up Tory.  
Differential turnout may have killed them (Tory areas always have an higher turnout and Tory voters could be more interested in law and order policies). The opposite is true about Bedfordshire where Luton had an higher turnout that Central Midbedfordshire.
Among the notionally Tory areas based on 2010 GE, Labour also picked up Lancashire.

Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire look pretty good for Labour.

How many lost deposists? Just a couple in Cornwall and Devon?

The former MPs elected are Jane Kennedy (Merseyside), Vera Baird (Northumbria), Paddy Tipping (Nottinghamshire), Sir Graham Brigh (Cambridgeshire) and obviously Tony Lloyd and Alun Michael.

After seeing the first results from Wales, I thought Alun Michael may have been in danger too. All political careers end up in failure but there's a limit even for this motto!

Unfortunately the demographics of the Powys part of Dyfed-Powys are not what they were in the 1960s, so a Labour win (even in a mid-term situation) was never all that likely.


The guy that won in Slurry looks like a good candidate for the nutter award. Anyways, Roddick should resign his party membership, like, yesterday. Given that this is a post that most people don't care about, that should probably be enough to avoid serious problems.

Smithson speculating on how much the Tories can blame losing Bedfordshire on Dorries' recent antics.

As I mentioned earlier I am trying my best to tally the local area results but it is being hindered by a local of the PARO (police area returning officers) only publishing the area counts not the local area counts (and who has the time and effort to visit all 315 council websites to do it). I'm on about 120 local areas so far bu at this rate it's going to take as long as it will take the US states to certify their results.

Thanks Harry yes please do - and I'll be more than happy to produce a map! I believe you have my email address from before but if not I'll PM it to you.

Currently up to 121 at the moment. I think I do, but have changed e-mail packages so a PM might be a good idea

Right, I don't know If you can draw any meaningful conclusions from an election with a 15% turnout but I will try.
 
1. Can't escape the turnout question; I agree with the poster who called it an omnishambles. The public clearly don't want police commissioners, Still I fear these posts are here to stay.

2. The labour performance was surprisingly average, I thought they would have taken a few more northern areas, I'm looking at you Humberside. I doubt it matters though, Corby matters far more. 

3. The Tories also had a bad day but a few surprising wins in places like staffs saved them from humiliation . The south east was an epic disaster. They lost Surrey, Kent, Hampshire, Lincolnshire, Dorset and West Mercia. These were Tory bastions even in 1945 and 1997, Kent even held out in 1906. Gone!

4. It was really the night of the independent. I dont much like independents, however most of the ones elected seem okay. I have a feeling the guy in Surrey may prove interesting.

5. Ukip did well, However the didn't win or come close to winning. Until they do they will never be more than a temporary home for disaffected tories. 

6. Last and definitely least its the Lib Dems. Well At least they held their deposits! Im guessing they were ahead in South Lakeland but did they win anywhere else? I would quite like to know ?
For the Lib dems, I think this result just about sums it up.

Northumberland         Labour  40.9
                                     Lib Dem 8.0 !!
                                     UKIP      10.3
                                     Tory       40.3

Just awful for them! The Tories outpolled them in Newcastle aswell!

Presumably no one in Berwick voted?

Whilst trawling Surrey sites for statistics, came across this interesting tidbit about turnout.

Elmbridge Borough Council
Overall turnout = 15.05%
Postal votes      = 46.12%
Polling station =  9.73%

Epsom and Ewell Borough Council
Overall turnout = 14.51%
Postal votes      = 48.36%
Polling station =  9.98%

Guildford Borough Council
Overall turnout = 18.22%
Postal votes      = 46.87%
Polling station =  10%

Mole Valley District Council
Overall turnout = 19.76%
Postal votes      = 47.18%
Polling station = 13.43%

Reigate and Banstead Borough Council
Overall turnout = 14.75%
Postal votes      = 45.03%
Polling station =  8.48%

Runnymede Borough Council
Overall turnout = 12.27%
Postal votes      = 49.12%
Polling station =  7.65%

Spelthorne Borough Council
Overall turnout = 13.10%
Postal votes      = 47.82%
Polling station =  8.39%

Surrey Heath Borough Council
Overall turnout = 14.25%
Postal votes      = 46.88%
Polling station =  9.6%

Tandridge District Council
Overall turnout = 15.57%
Postal votes      = 47.56%
Polling station = 10.14%

Woking Borough Council
Overall turnout = 16.56%
Postal votes      = 45.78%
Polling station = 10.05%

Waverley Borough Council
Overall turnout = 17.16%
Postal votes      = 50.38%
Polling station =  11.8%

I feel that Westmoreland must've been the only section of the country to vote Liberal.

It looks like the few who did, voted for the Tory. I know there was only a 16.5% turnout so the PCC election result is near worthless but come 2015 I can see a rare Tory gain there.

Berwick will be one of the "Our losses have been offset by gains from the Libs" seats for the Tories in 2015.

In terms of number of seats won, I actually think the Libs will do much better than we all think. They always do.

Is Beith retiring next time?

:D

Durham result...

Labour    51.56%
Independent    26.83%
UKIP    11.77%
Conservative    9.84%

Hilarious.

The Tories very well might have lost Essex on full AV, and almost certainly would have under Australian style IRV, ie where you have to rank all the candidates.

The reason for the pathetic Tory result was they struggled to get a candidate, so had to run a 22 year old. The Labour candidate was also very strong.  In both Northumbria and Cleveland  the Tories got 26%.

They didn't in 2010...

how many PCC areas have you fully tallied?

Local Area Results Tallied: 145
Local Area Results with Electorates: 69
PCC Area Results Tallied: 15

I suppose the 15 PCC areas totally tallied are West Yorkshire, Humberside, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Sussex, Kent, Dyfed Powys, South Wales, Essex, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire, Northumbria, West Midlands, Hampshire, Thames Valley.

 They are the ones where the council managing the area count published the results by area on a single page.

I've also seen  1 prefs results from Liverpool, Wirral, Sefton, Blackpool, Pendle, Wyre, South Ribble, Ribble Valley, Blackburn, Chorley, Stoke, Cannock Chase, Newcaslte under Lyme, Staffs Moorlands, South Staffordshire, Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Caerphilly.

Do you need any of them?

YES PLEASE!!!

Staffs Moorlands: COn 5399 Lab 3838
Cannock Chase: Lab 4426 Con 3126
South Staffordshire Con 6380 Lab 3540
Stoke: Lab 10725 Con 6,674,
Newcastle: Lab 5786 Con 4606


Blackpool

Lab 7,742 Con 5,716 UKIP 2,861 LD 1,159
Second prefs: Con 1,482 Lab 1,297


Blackburn
Lab 8,694 Con 3,998 LD 2,085 UKIP 1,697
Second prefs: Lab 1,483 Con 1,1157

Pendle
LD 3288, Conservative 3252, Labour 2911, UKIP 138

Ribble Valley
Con 2,881 UKIP 1,130 Lab 1,112 LD 633
Second prefs Con 721 Lab 394

Wyre Con 6458 Lab 5249 UKIP 2890 LD 874
Second prefs: Con 1580 Lab 959 (LD 342 UKIP 83 for what it matters. So 83 LibDems transfered to UKIP and 342 UKippers went LD)

South Ribble:
Con 4,587 Lab 4,530 UKIP 2,067 LD 983
Second prefs
Con 1,175 Lab 905 (496 second prefs from LD and UKIP to UKIP and LD)

Chorley
Lab 6500 Con 5407 UKIP 1862 LD 968
Second prefs: Con 1105 Lab 894

Liverpool
Lab 27536 Ind 3582 LD 3395 Con 2203 UKIP 1771 EngDem 1685

Wirral
Lab 13,025,Con 7,108, Ind 4,388, UKIP 2,976, LD 1,918, EngDem 1,737

Sefton: Lab 10,858 Ind Reid 3,999 Con 3,701 LD 2,330 UKIP 2,268 Eng Dem 1,65

Newport:Lab 5345 Ind 5135 Con 2046 Ind 1534
Second pref: Ind 1,697 Lab 433

Bleanau Gwent: Lab 3540 Ind 2353 Ind 517 Con 346
Second prefs: Ind 474 Lab 124

Torfaen: Lab 3988 Ind 3674 Con 973 Ind 966
Second prefs:  Ind 949 Lab 254

Caerphilly: Ind 8033 Lab 7327 Ind 1939 Con 1143
Second prefs Ind 1651 Con 441

Thank you very much indeed for those.

Preston City Council area


First Preferences:

#pcc Police Commissioner results for Preston City council - Lab 6,537, Con 4,501, LibDem 2,243, UKIP 1,733. Rejected 419


Second Preferences:

Con 1,174
Lab  1,420

Second preference votes given to candidates remaining -  2,594
Second preference votes given to candidates eliminated - 703

Rejected  679

Thanks for that Liam, that brings the tally up to 207 (108 to go)

As things stand I have no results from: Cleveland, Derbyshire, Devon and Cornwall, Dorset, Greater Manchester, Hertfordshire, Humberside, Norfolk, Northamptonshire, South Wales, South Yorkshire, Warwickshire, West Mercia and West Yorkshire.

Then after that there are a couple of local results I am missing from some police force areas and then comes the tricky question of electorates.