Talk Elections

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120218/NEWS09/120218015/Obama-trails-three-four-Republican-candidates-latest-Iowa-Poll?odyssey=mod%7cbreaking%7ctext%7cFrontpage


The Republican with the biggest lead: Ron Paul, who would defeat Obama by 7 percentage points, 49 percent to 42 percent. Rick Santorum, winner of the 2012 Iowa caucuses, leads Obama 48 percent to 44 percent. Mitt Romney, edged in the caucuses by Santorum, leads Obama 46 percent to 44 percent.



Iowa knows all the candidates the best of course.

Counterintuitive, to be sure.  The President might need to take a couple trips to Iowa.

okay sure.

uh huh

??? What a hilarious poll.

Seriously, what is this:

Paul up by 7
Santorum up by 4
Romney up by 2
Gingrich down by 14

So you would agree with them that Ron Paul should be the nominee?

So Obama led virtually every poll when his national numbers were in the doghouse but now that he is on the upswing he trails?

Ok.

Seems legit.

Ron Paul: Mr. Electability. :P

It's the DMR, and they do a pretty great job. They nailed it a week in advance in 08 and they showed the Santorum surge with their last poll which was a week before the election and most the vote switching happened in the last 48 hours.

Count me in the skeptical group, Iowa is not an R+5 state

Yeah, this...there's no reason anybody should think this makes sense, even if they are krazen.

I can't think of even a crazy reason why Iowa would diverge so much from the national trend as to become an R+2 to 4 state depending on who the eventual GOP nominee is.

I'm aware that they have a good reputation, but if IA really is this competitive at this point, why would that not translate to Newt at all in this poll? All of this is bizarre, to say the least.

i dunno, maybe the gop candidates are getting a bump from all their visits to the state?

or maybe it is just an outlier

probably the latter

Of course the comments on this poll(just like any other one that has a Republican leading, just shows the fantasyland the Dem hacks on the Atlas live in.

At least it's not a fantasyland in which a state that has only gone Republican once in the last six elections suddenly turning ~R+4 when the Democratic President's approval rating is markedly improving and the ostensibly-ahead-of-the-President Republican frontrunner's favorability rating is in the crapper makes sense.

You're not talking about PA?

This is a very strange poll, to say the least. I don't doubt that the frequent visits some Republican candidates have payed to the state boost the popularity of the GOP candidates, but this is odd. We definitely need more polls to confirm this.

And you're at a university? With that type of thinking?

I've thought that IA might be a lot closer than in 2008, because the state has a equal amount of Ds and Rs and Is. But this poll seems a bit too GOP friendly. And in 2008, the first DMR/Selzer poll was too Obama-friendly. We need more polls to see if Obama's in trouble there.

Some of us even have degrees.

So Obama leads in OH, VA, FL and CO but trails in Iowa ? What the hell ? ???

The worst part of his thinking is not that; the worst part of his thinking is his inexplicable love affair with the likes of Pinochet, Milosevic and Apartheid South Africans.

2004 was R+2
2008 was D+1
2010 was R+4

And this poll is R+8 ?

Hard to believe ...

Atrocious crosstabs. Junk poll.

One could imagine the Iowa caucus having an effect precisely on the enthusiasm levels and thus number of likely voters. But it still seems too much.

Likely voter screen. It makes plenty of sense and from a good source.

Of course, the peanut gallery simply screams 'outlier!' on some 1/3 or so of polls.

Not sure if real poll or just another Krazen post.

In 04, it was actually D+1. Kerry got 49% there and 48% nationally.

lol

This poll is junk, it has nothing to do with how well the candidates are known or any spin like that. Iowa is one of that states least likely to fall in 2012. Any poll show Ron Paul doing better than the rest of the GOP field is junk anyway. It's grasping at straws to believe this poll.

Looks like a good poll.  It is a swing state after all and even if it has been a lean-D swing state there is no guarantee it will stay that way.  

I mean the 2004 CNN Exit Poll sample from IA was R+2, not the election result.

Iowa has been trending Republican for a while and Ron Paul ran the best campaign there.  I don't see why this poll is necessarily false, especially since IIRC it's saying about the same thing as the last Iowa poll, although it certainly could be an outlier.

I think this is an effect of the Republicans spending such a long time campaigning there. It is pretty impressive though, considering that Iowa's economy is booming and you would expect that to be in Obama's favor. It doesn't surprise me that Paul is doing well. Compared to the other candidates he's faced little scrutiny, and some of his positions (foreign policy, civil liberties and certain social issues) are well calculated to appeal to Democrats and Independents. However if his positions were actually put under the microscope, I don't think he'd end up doing nearly this well.

And apparently Imperial Germany.

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920120215040

Whatever buddy!

Gotta love that likely voters screen eight and a half months out with, as needs to be restated, a putative Republican advantage twice as large as 2010.

It'll definitely be interesting to see if other polls show anything like this. This one really is bucking the trend we've been seeing lately in other swing states (aside from Gingrichfail, of course).


This is what happens outside of fantasyland, hack.

It maybe hard for to believe but most people at college are open to seeing different electoral results then most of the immature teenage hacks(like yourself) that populate this forum.

Again, the issue with the poll is that it has a lot less Democrats that will actually be part of an actual electorate. It's way too early for likely voter screens and even when the time comes, the screens won't be that heavily Republican. Calling names and getting angry won't make this poll the accurate.

This number might have gone down some in the last couple of days.