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Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: RI on February 23, 2012, 11:58:41 pm



Title: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: RI on February 23, 2012, 11:58:41 pm
To start off:

"Santorum up big on first night of our Wisconsin poll, suggests debate at least didn't hurt him nationally"


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Alcon on February 24, 2012, 12:05:06 am
Good idea for the Twitter-averse :)


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on February 24, 2012, 12:13:05 am
Yeah, the only reason Michigan is close is because it's Romney's "home" state. He's going to get rocked in the rest of the Midwest.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on February 24, 2012, 06:11:09 am
Excellent. Congrats Phil.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: RI on February 26, 2012, 12:47:33 pm
One-day MI and AZ numbers expected out late tonight.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Simfan34 on February 26, 2012, 01:13:15 pm
Excellent. Congrats Phil.

The Winfield legacy lives on.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: RI on February 26, 2012, 06:47:26 pm
"Early observations on today's polls: Michigan still pretty close, but Romney headed for a huge win in Arizona"

"It looks like Romney has banked about a 30 point lead among early voters in Arizona and they're more than half the electorate"


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: RI on February 26, 2012, 09:53:45 pm
Mitt has a "very small lead" in Michigan.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Thomas D on February 26, 2012, 10:27:55 pm
Mitt has a "very small lead" in Michigan.

Romney 39-37

I'm not sure how to post in the polls thread.


Title: Final PPP poll?
Post by: Progressive on February 27, 2012, 08:18:49 pm
When is the final PPP poll coming out? Heard it will have good news for frothy.


Title: Re: Final PPP poll?
Post by: RI on February 27, 2012, 08:19:25 pm
When is the final PPP poll coming out? Heard it will have good news for frothy.

Between 10 and 11 pm ET.


Title: Re: Final PPP poll?
Post by: shua on February 27, 2012, 10:12:48 pm
We'll miss you PPP! :(


Title: Re: Final PPP poll?
Post by: Torie on February 27, 2012, 10:15:23 pm
Top-lines in 15 minutes from the date stamp on my post supposedly from PPP. Meanwhile, Rick is pushing hard for Dems to vote for him to keep it all going. He's doing operation backdoor himself. Can't blame him of course, but it will give Mittens an alibi if he loses to Rick by a tad in Michigan. He will just say enough Democrats voted in the Pub primary in hopes that a weaker candidate will face Obama, or to keep the demolition derby going hurting all Pubs.

(http://i1099.photobucket.com/albums/g392/swdunn1/Screenshot2012-02-27at70940PM.png)


Title: Re: Final PPP poll?
Post by: TCash101 on February 27, 2012, 10:19:00 pm
But Rick is asking for Dem votes in earnest- that his economic brand is more inclusive. Do Republicans think they can win Michigan in the general without peeling off Democratic votes? Really?


Title: Re: Final PPP poll?
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on February 27, 2012, 10:23:04 pm
Top-lines in 15 minutes from the date stamp on my post supposedly from PPP. Meanwhile, Rick is pushing hard for Dems to vote for him to keep it all going. He's doing operation backdoor himself. Can't blame him of course, but it will give Mittens an alibi if he loses to Rick by a tad in Michigan. He will just say enough Democrats voted in the Pub primary in hopes that a weaker candidate will face Obama, or to keep the demolition derby going hurting all Pubs.

(http://i1099.photobucket.com/albums/g392/swdunn1/Screenshot2012-02-27at70940PM.png)
A win is a win. And if victorious in Romney's "home state," it's quite embarrassing.


Title: Re: Final PPP poll?
Post by: CLARENCE 2015! on February 27, 2012, 10:28:35 pm
Santorum is winning 39 to 34 from yesterday


Title: Romney is leading in Washington now!
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 01, 2012, 12:48:12 am
says ppp:

Quote
Romney with a small lead on first night of our Washington poll. Represents big change from 2 weeks ago, reflecting national shift

It's over! The goose is cooked! I tried to tell you guys last night on the chat, but no one would listen! Romney has it all in the bag now. He's going to win Washington, win all but maybe Georgia and Oklahoma on Super Tuesday, and that'll be it. Game over.


Title: Re: Romney is leading in Washington now!
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on March 01, 2012, 12:53:06 am
He lead in Colorado too.  Santorum has outperformed the polls in caucus states so far.  To declare him dead based on one poll is ridiculous.


Title: Re: Romney is leading in Washington now!
Post by: RI on March 01, 2012, 01:06:03 am
Caucus polling dude, plus it sounds like they oversampled Mormons by a lot.


Title: Re: Romney is leading in Washington now!
Post by: Napoleon on March 01, 2012, 01:07:16 am
Hoping for a Paul surge, just for funs.


Title: Re: Romney is leading in Washington now!
Post by: Eraserhead on March 01, 2012, 02:03:22 am
Yeah, he'll basically lock this thing up on Super Tuesday if he can win 7 or 8 out of 10.


Title: Re: Romney is leading in Washington now!
Post by: bgwah on March 01, 2012, 02:15:59 am
Caucus polling dude, plus it sounds like they oversampled Mormons by a lot.

Yeah, I'm skeptical. There aren't any pollsters with experience polling a GOP caucus here (they've always polled the primary in the past).

And of course Romney under performed PPP's numbers in MN and CO.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 01, 2012, 02:21:17 am
What was turnout like in CO and MN, as compared to NV?  Because I recall Mark Blumenthal commenting on how useless caucus polling tends to be for the especially low turnout cases.  I'm wondering if CO and MN had lower turnout than NV, and wondering if that explains why PPP's polling did better in NV than the other two.


Title: Re: Romney is leading in Washington now!
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on March 01, 2012, 02:29:11 am
Caucus polling dude, plus it sounds like they oversampled Mormons by a lot.

I could see Mormons composing 8-10% of the caucus-frequenting electorate but 15%? No way.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 01, 2012, 02:55:35 am
Of course Romney is leading, they polled the state just a day after his Michigan and Arizona triumphs and all the positive coverage he had.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 01, 2012, 04:21:23 am
Of course Romney is leading, they polled the state just a day after his Michigan and Arizona triumphs and all the positive coverage he had.


Well, the caucus is on Saturaday. It's not like the positive coverage is going to subside much by then.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 01, 2012, 04:47:19 am
Of course Romney is leading, they polled the state just a day after his Michigan and Arizona triumphs and all the positive coverage he had.


Well, the caucus is on Saturaday. It's not like the positive coverage is going to subside much by then.

Just like it didn't subside after his Florida/Nevada wins?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 01, 2012, 11:43:07 am
Of course Romney is leading, they polled the state just a day after his Michigan and Arizona triumphs and all the positive coverage he had.


Well, the caucus is on Saturaday. It's not like the positive coverage is going to subside much by then.

Just like it didn't subside after his Florida/Nevada wins?

Most of the coverage about NV dealt with the low turnout and the horrendous vote counting shenanigans. Michigan was a competitive primary in a big state. If Mitt can just keep his trap shut for another day, he should be fine.


Title: PPP Tweets Romney pulling ahead in Ohio
Post by: Whacker77 on March 03, 2012, 01:05:27 pm
The Obama campaign can begin plans for its second inaugural because it appears Willard is now moving ahead in Ohio.  At least, that's what PPP tweeted today.  A Romney win in Ohio ends any hopes of a convention fight or a new candidate.  That means Republicans are stuck with our own version of John Kerry.

Maybe I'm totally misreading the situation, but I see no way Romney can win a general election.  He's shown no ability to mobilize the base and he lacks authenticity.  I've followed this race as closely as anyone and I have no idea what Romney really believes.  In the end, the conservative base will show up for Romney, but will Independents?

Many people, trying to convince themselves all is not lost, note Reagan trailed Carter badly in 1980 and went on to sweep to victory.  That is true, but Reagan was the conservative choice and had the passions of the grass roots.  More importantly though, the political make up of the parties is far different today than they were then.

In 1980, the makeup of the parties was far different.  Both parties had strong liberal and conservative wings.  Today though, the parties are essentially ideologically pure.  There are no conservatives left in the Democrat party just as there are no liberal left in the Republican party.  The hyperpartisan nature of today would probably not have allowed for the Reagan blowouts in 1980 and 1984.

I'm sure there will be moments in the campaign when Romney puts Obama on his heels, but I just don't see Romney ever really challenging Obama.


Title: Re: PPP Tweets Romney pulling ahead in Ohio
Post by: Politico on March 03, 2012, 01:16:21 pm
Both sides have 40% no matter what. Romney has no skeletons in the closet, and can win a plurality of the 20% in the middle by appearing safe and competent. Except when you have a Goldwater-like challenger, campaigns involving an incumbent are essentially referendums on the incumbent. $4-5/gallon and underemployment in the 15-20% range with official unemployment over 8% is a losing referendum for the incumbent if his challenger is not perceived as risky. If Obama descends into scorch-and-burn tactics like Bush did in 2004, that is still a battle Romney can win by being negative about the state of things and tying Obama into them (which is something the electorate is already doing without this narrative). Stuff like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K34sHH3xZAY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoQ1gged_KI

Outside of that stuff in response to Obama's negative onslaught, Romney can just run positive stuff like this and he'll have little problem seeing Obama lose his referendum:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fg3EAdGLDhU

I'll add this: Romney is not a natural politician, and obviously he's not everyman America. However, he does have a passion for driving. It was ingrained in him as a child by virtue of his dad being the head of an automotive company in Detroit. Mitt's love of driving is authentic. And who doesn't like driving in America? The Mitt on the Road ads are going to help with his perceived "authenticity" problem.


Title: Re: PPP Tweets Romney pulling ahead in Ohio
Post by: Torie on March 03, 2012, 01:17:35 pm
The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race. That should not be too hard. Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. And for all of the bills of particulars listed by folks against Mittens, he is running tight with Obama in the polls even before he is nominated.


Title: Re: PPP Tweets Romney pulling ahead in Ohio
Post by: Yank2133 on March 03, 2012, 01:20:24 pm
The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race.

No, the election will be about choice.

Romney has to actually convince people that he is a legit alternative to Obama, simply not being Obama isn't good enough.


Title: Re: PPP Tweets Romney pulling ahead in Ohio
Post by: Earthling on March 03, 2012, 01:22:59 pm
The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race. That should not be too hard. Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. And for all of the bills of particulars listed by folks against Mittens, he is running tight with Obama in the polls even before he is nominated.

No, he is not. In some polls he is down by 10 points. That is not close at all. He is losing in Virginia and Ohio, two states he need to win to become president. And Obama still has to start campaigning for real.


Title: Re: PPP Tweets Romney pulling ahead in Ohio
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on March 03, 2012, 01:23:11 pm
[...] Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. [...]
Some people would say that having a President who changes his positions every 15 minutes is risky.


Title: Re: PPP Tweets Romney pulling ahead in Ohio
Post by: Politico on March 03, 2012, 01:26:35 pm
The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race.

No, the election will be about choice.

Romney has to actually convince people that he is a legit alternative to Obama, simply not being Obama isn't good enough.

You overestimate how much the 20% in the middle care about "issues." If most of them perceive Romney as NOT risky, that's good enough to bury Obama.


Title: Re: PPP Tweets Romney pulling ahead in Ohio
Post by: Whacker77 on March 03, 2012, 01:32:26 pm
The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race. That should not be too hard. Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. And for all of the bills of particulars listed by folks against Mittens, he is running tight with Obama in the polls even before he is nominated.

The part I bolded and underlined is the problem I have.  Given the economy continues to lag, unemployment has been over 8.5% since early 2009, and gas prices are very high, Romney ought to have a 10 point lead over Obama.  The fact he trails, albeit relatively closely, is a major warning sign to me he can't defeat Obama at all.  I think the national polls tell perfectly how weak he is.


Title: Re: PPP Tweets Romney pulling ahead in Ohio
Post by: Politico on March 03, 2012, 01:32:26 pm
[...] Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. [...]
Some people would say that having a President who changes his positions every 15 minutes is risky.

The 20% in the middle do not care about the fact Romney changed his position on Roe V. Wade. Romney has never flip-flopped on matters of war and peace. John Kerry's "I actually voted for the war before I voted against it" (I know that's not the direct quote) during the middle of a war we were appearing to lose was part of what BARELY did him in.

Good luck creating the narrative of the Mr. Bland of American Politics as a risky scheme. The Obama Team is good, but not THAT good, especially up against Karl Rove and Co.


Title: Re: PPP Tweets Romney pulling ahead in Ohio
Post by: Whacker77 on March 03, 2012, 01:37:50 pm
The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race. That should not be too hard. Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. And for all of the bills of particulars listed by folks against Mittens, he is running tight with Obama in the polls even before he is nominated.

The part I bolded and underlined is the problem I have.  Given the economy continues to lag, unemployment has been over 8.5% since early 2009, and gas prices are very high, Romney ought to have a 10 point lead over Obama.  The fact he trails, albeit relatively closely, is a major warning sign to me he can't defeat Obama at all.  I think the national polls tell perfectly how weak he is.


Title: Re: PPP Tweets Romney pulling ahead in Ohio
Post by: Politico on March 03, 2012, 01:53:12 pm
The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race. That should not be too hard. Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. And for all of the bills of particulars listed by folks against Mittens, he is running tight with Obama in the polls even before he is nominated.

The part I bolded and underlined is the problem I have.  Given the economy continues to lag, unemployment has been over 8.5% since early 2009, and gas prices are very high, Romney ought to have a 10 point lead over Obama.  The fact he trails, albeit relatively closely, is a major warning sign to me he can't defeat Obama at all.  I think the national polls tell perfectly how weak he is.

Ronald Reagan was tied with Jimmy Carter a week before Election Day. Need I say more?

The polling will probably be tight until the last few days of the campaign. Then it will break heavily to Romney, just like it did for Reagan, once everybody is convinced that Romney is not a risky scheme and things are just too bad to reward Obama with re-election. Romney will probably win around 51-47, simply because Obama's team is so good at organizing, but with the potential of something like 54-44 if it breaks 1980-hard his way.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 03, 2012, 01:54:34 pm
Quote
Newt up big in Georgia. Kinda wish we'd polled Oklahoma instead. Romney with a healthy lead for 2nd over Santorum so far

Quote
Surprise of the day- Tennessee looking much more competitive. Santorum still up but Mitt and Newt within about 5-7 pts


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 03, 2012, 02:13:12 pm
The Newt surge might hit just in time.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Whacker77 on March 03, 2012, 02:35:20 pm
Romney is not Reagan.  I know Politico is a huge Romney supporter, but the blinkers are hurting his view of things.  I'm not sure McCain, as bad a candidate as he was, was ever this compromised.  He just ran in a lousy year for Republicans.  Romney is just a lousy candidate.

As for the Newt surge, it just shows conservatives are a stupid voting block.  At the very time they should be using Santorum as a vessel to block Romney, they're shifting slightly back to Newt and thus spliting their influence.


Title: Re: PPP Tweets Romney pulling ahead in Ohio
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on March 03, 2012, 03:09:29 pm
[...] Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. [...]
Some people would say that having a President who changes his positions every 15 minutes is risky.

The 20% in the middle do not care about the fact Romney changed his position on Roe V. Wade. Romney has never flip-flopped on matters of war and peace. John Kerry's "I actually voted for the war before I voted against it" (I know that's not the direct quote) during the middle of a war we were appearing to lose was part of what BARELY did him in.


If you say so, but what about Obamacare? The PPACA is probably the biggest reason as to why conservatives don't like Obama, and Mitt Romney's flip-flop there certainly won't raise much enthusiasm.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on March 03, 2012, 04:12:56 pm
The Newt surge might hit just in time.

I've been saying that for about 24 hours.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 04, 2012, 09:30:21 pm
PPP saying OH is "incredibly close." Newt might win TN Election day vote but Santorum has too big of an early vote lead.

Toplines out in ten to forty minutes.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 09, 2012, 04:55:01 am
"Romney leading on first night of our NC GOP poll...that seems to me like a real sign this thing might be ready to wrap up"

"Looks like about a 10 point shift from Santorum to Romney in NC even just in the last week"

"Romney has historically done very poorly in our North Carolina polling...if he's winning here now he's winning most everywhere"


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 09, 2012, 04:58:43 am
Meh. Romney leading in North Carolina does not mean he is definitely leading in Mississippi or Alabama.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: argentarius on March 09, 2012, 05:27:38 am
Virginia's win probably helped ihim in NC. Right now it's irrelevant.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 09, 2012, 08:59:06 am
Virginia's win probably helped ihim in NC. Right now it's irrelevant.

The Virginia win was tainted because neither Gingrich nor Santorum was on the ballot.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on March 09, 2012, 09:45:24 am
Virginia's win probably helped ihim in NC. Right now it's irrelevant.

The Virginia win was tainted because neither Gingrich nor Santorum was on the ballot.

A win is a win, but the momentum from Super Tuesday probably gives a Romney a slight boost.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 09, 2012, 11:59:45 am
Nom nom. Good news for the Southern states. :D


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: argentarius on March 09, 2012, 12:17:09 pm
Virginia's win probably helped ihim in NC. Right now it's irrelevant.

The Virginia win was tainted because neither Gingrich nor Santorum was on the ballot.
That doesn't do Romney any favours, but it really diminishes Gingrich/Santorum.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Hash on March 10, 2012, 12:43:26 pm
"Alabama looks like a 3 way tie with maybe slight advantage Romney...but it's just the first round of calls"

"Mississippi looks like it's between Gingrich and Romney with Santorum falling well back"


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 11, 2012, 06:41:51 am
I'd be alright with Santorum winning Alabama and Gingrich winning Mississippi. I still can't really fathom the idea of Romney winning either of them. I just can't.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 11, 2012, 05:25:55 pm
They are supposed to start releasing results after 11.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 11, 2012, 08:33:18 pm
They are supposed to start releasing results after 11.

They really do like to torture us political nerds on a Sunday night.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 11, 2012, 10:02:36 pm
Alabama coming out first. Expected in twenty minutes...


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2012, 10:06:37 pm
Alabama coming out first. Expected in twenty minutes...

I'll Guess it will be a close one between Romney and Gingrich.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 11, 2012, 10:30:50 pm
"Wish we could give you some clarity in Alabama but...Romney 31, Gingrich 30, Santorum 29, Paul 8."


Come on, Rick!


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on March 11, 2012, 10:38:57 pm
"Wish we could give you some clarity in Alabama but...Romney 31, Gingrich 30, Santorum 29, Paul 8."


Come on, Rick!

Romney's grits nonsense ought to sink his chances.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Alcon on March 11, 2012, 10:43:08 pm
Mississippi "pretty darn close too," although that doesn't tell us much, since it started out as a virtual Romney/Gingrich tie.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on March 11, 2012, 10:43:32 pm
"Wish we could give you some clarity in Alabama but...Romney 31, Gingrich 30, Santorum 29, Paul 8."


Come on, Rick!

Romney's grits nonsense ought to sink his chances.

Huckabee thought it was a good remark.  MS will be interesting.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 11, 2012, 10:44:35 pm
Mississippi "pretty darn close too," although that doesn't tell us much, since it started out as a virtual Romney/Gingrich tie.

I read this, got excited because I was expecting Santorum to be far behind and then realized that that could still be the case.  :(


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 11, 2012, 10:47:06 pm
Should MS be out soon?

Edit: Yep, 30 minutes or so.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2012, 10:48:59 pm
If I wanted someone that's BIG government I'd vote for Barack Obama. Santorum voted for every debt increase Bush wanted...Hopefully PPP shows him crashing in Miss and Al.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 11, 2012, 11:18:01 pm
"And Mississippi is Gingrich 33, Romney 31, Santorum 27, Paul 7. Looks like we might be in for a long night Tuesday..."

Good enough.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: True Federalist on March 11, 2012, 11:20:51 pm
If I wanted someone that's BIG government I'd vote for Barack Obama. Santorum voted for every debt increase Bush wanted...Hopefully PPP shows him crashing in Miss and Al.

Do you honestly expect Mitt to veto a debt limit increase?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Matthew on March 11, 2012, 11:21:47 pm
nope :(


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on March 11, 2012, 11:22:23 pm
Excellent news. Nice and tight.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 11, 2012, 11:23:51 pm
Excellent news. Nice and tight.

Oh my. Let's keep it conservative, my friend.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 11, 2012, 11:26:00 pm
Looks like that Rasmussen poll that gave Romney an 8 point lead in MS was bull. I can't say I'm surprised, that thing just didn't look right.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on March 11, 2012, 11:27:54 pm
Phil - Santorum always comes from behind.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on March 11, 2012, 11:37:52 pm
With the delegate allocation rules in the two states we are probably looking at a pretty even 3 way split of the delegates. That is good news and bad news for Mittens. Good news nobody is gaining on him,  bad news it makes it a little tougher to get 50% of the total before the convention.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on March 11, 2012, 11:51:44 pm
With the delegate allocation rules in the two states we are probably looking at a pretty even 3 way split of the delegates. That is good news and bad news for Mittens. Good news nobody is gaining on him,  bad news it makes it a little tougher to get 50% of the total before the convention.

Remember, there are 29 delegates outside of the South awarded on Tuesday.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on March 12, 2012, 12:09:57 am
Quote
Remember, there are 29 delegates outside of the South awarded on Tuesday.

Hawaii isn't the 'South'?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 12, 2012, 12:10:53 am
Quote
Remember, there are 29 delegates outside of the South awarded on Tuesday.

Hawaii isn't the 'South'?

Oh, come on, dude. Don't do that. It's so...J.J.-esque.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on March 12, 2012, 12:13:13 am
But it's JJ! I can't help myself.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on March 12, 2012, 12:23:11 am
Well, if you want to get technical, Hawaii doesn't "award" any delegates on Tuesday, because their caucus isn't a binding process (and at any rate, they may not even have a straw poll; I haven't seen confirmation of this).


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Meeker on March 12, 2012, 12:34:21 am
Well, if you want to get technical, Hawaii doesn't "award" any delegates on Tuesday, because their caucus isn't a binding process (and at any rate, they may not even have a straw poll; I haven't seen confirmation of this).

They're definitely doing a straw poll: http://www.gophawaii.com/2012-presidential-caucus/

ETA: It's also worth noting that polls in Hawai'i won't even close until 2 AM EST. Who knows when results will actually start coming in.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on March 12, 2012, 12:47:12 am
Quote
Remember, there are 29 delegates outside of the South awarded on Tuesday.

Hawaii isn't the 'South'?

It's south, but not the South.  Note the capital.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: RI on March 12, 2012, 12:49:20 am
Quote
Remember, there are 29 delegates outside of the South awarded on Tuesday.

Hawaii isn't the 'South'?

It's south, but not the South.  Note the capital.

Honolulu.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 12, 2012, 02:06:12 am
Quote
Remember, there are 29 delegates outside of the South awarded on Tuesday.

Hawaii isn't the 'South'?

It's south, but not the South.  Note the capital.

Honolulu.

Silly Honolulu. Most cities keep their city limits confined to a 1000 mile radius of their downtown.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Bacon! 🔥 on March 12, 2012, 02:24:02 am
Well, if you want to get technical, Hawaii doesn't "award" any delegates on Tuesday, because their caucus isn't a binding process (and at any rate, they may not even have a straw poll; I haven't seen confirmation of this).

They're definitely doing a straw poll: http://www.gophawaii.com/2012-presidential-caucus/

ETA: It's also worth noting that polls in Hawai'i won't even close until 2 AM EST. Who knows when results will actually start coming in.

Ah, thanks for the heads up. Definitely won't be staying up for these results :P


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on March 12, 2012, 09:21:34 am
Quote
Remember, there are 29 delegates outside of the South awarded on Tuesday.

Hawaii isn't the 'South'?

It's south, but not the South.  Note the capital.

Honolulu.

That is "capital," not "capitol." 


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on March 12, 2012, 09:41:59 am
Quote
Remember, there are 29 delegates outside of the South awarded on Tuesday.

Hawaii isn't the 'South'?

It's south, but not the South.  Note the capital.

Honolulu.

That is "capital," not "capitol." 
Failed.
Honolulu is the capital of Hawai'i.
The capitol of Hawai'i is a certain building within Honolulu.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on March 12, 2012, 05:17:53 pm
Well, if you want to get technical, Hawaii doesn't "award" any delegates on Tuesday, because their caucus isn't a binding process (and at any rate, they may not even have a straw poll; I haven't seen confirmation of this).

Yes they do award delegates. They may call it a caucus but in reality is more like a primary with limited polling places and limited hours than an Iowa type Caucus. 17 delegates are awarded proportionally by the results (3 each CD and 11 statewide).

http://www.weeklystandard.com/sites/all/files/docs/2012%20RNC%20Delegate%20Summary.pdf


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: ajb on March 13, 2012, 10:33:38 am
"Obama did very well on our Pennsylvania and North Carolina polls over the weekend. Not buying the drop."


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 15, 2012, 08:23:31 pm
Illinois poll coming on Sunday night.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Thomas D on March 15, 2012, 09:41:39 pm
Illinois poll coming on Sunday night.

I was about to say "Obama. Duh."

But then I remembered. "Oh, the primary."


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on March 16, 2012, 02:18:54 am
PPP national underway: Romney and Santorum tied.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 16, 2012, 02:35:46 am
Getting pretty tired of the national polls. No real point to them. Almost half of the states have already voted.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 17, 2012, 04:16:47 pm
Romney up by a "healthy margin" in IL.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 17, 2012, 06:42:12 pm
Romney up double digits in their survey tonight. I smell another underperformance Tuesday night though...


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on March 17, 2012, 06:48:51 pm
As someone who actually hates Romney more than Santorum, will you ever acknowledge a Romney win? Winning 72% in Massachusetts must have been "weak for his home state".


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on March 17, 2012, 07:20:22 pm
Romney should spend some time in Lousiana. If he wants to get the nomination as soon as possible, he needs Ill + LA. If he carries Illinois but not Louisiana, Santorum will gain momentum, again... And Obama will laugh even more.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 17, 2012, 08:41:44 pm
As someone who actually hates Romney more than Santorum, will you ever acknowledge a Romney win? Winning 72% in Massachusetts must have been "weak for his home state".

...what? Was that meant for me? If so, it doesn't make sense. I never implied 72% was weak for him. I'm saying he'd underperform what the polls show.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on March 18, 2012, 10:42:36 pm
Anything from PPP?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Matthew on March 18, 2012, 10:44:57 pm
Anything from PPP?

PublicPolicyPolling‏@ppppollsReply
Retweet
https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

Final Illinois numbers: Romney 45, Santorum 30, Gingrich 12, Paul 10


If this turns out to be the case then Romney will pull at least 40 delegates out of this state. Very bad news for Santorum. About over for him.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 18, 2012, 10:47:55 pm
It was over for Santorum when he announced.  Reality takes a while to set in sometimes, kind of like in 2006.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on March 18, 2012, 10:50:15 pm
Anything from PPP?

PublicPolicyPolling‏@ppppollsReply
Retweet
https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

Final Illinois numbers: Romney 45, Santorum 30, Gingrich 12, Paul 10


If this turns out to be the case then Romney will pull at least 40 delegates out of this state. Very bad news for Santorum. About over for him.

It's all over but the shouting. Santorum will probably win Louisiana next Saturday but April looks brutal for him. Hard to see how he is seen as viable much longer.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Caripace Clavicle Moundshroud on March 18, 2012, 11:01:46 pm
Illinois impresses me. Apparently some people are able to make rational decisions.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on March 18, 2012, 11:09:04 pm
I have been expecting this for days. Those polls of 3, 4 and 6 points were complete BS. I could see it from just looking at the map of the state and keeping in mind both the Senate and Gubernatorial primaries of 2010 and the proper proportions of each part of state. Many I think have been overestimating that proportion of "Illinois' Alabama" within a GOP primary, and underestimating the voting power of Cook and the collar counties. Romney would have to loose ground within his demographics or suffer severely low turnout for this be even close.


Hell just today they were still discussing the possibility of Rick upsetting Mitt here, on FNS.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 19, 2012, 01:30:30 am
Huh? Where does that "It's over!!! Romney has it wrapped up!!!" thing came from the last two days? Mittens was always the heavy favorite in Illinois, even after his southern debacle. A simple look at an Illinois map will show even to the most naive that Chicagoland will always outvote downstate, even in a Republican primary.

And Santorum will be fine in April as long as he wins the states he's expected to win (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and perhaps Delaware). If he manages to survive there then it will be Romney who will have to face a brutal month in May.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 19, 2012, 02:41:07 am
Huh? Where does that "It's over!!! Romney has it wrapped up!!!" thing came from the last two days? Mittens was always the heavy favorite in Illinois, even after his southern debacle. A simple look at an Illinois map will show even to the most naive that Chicagoland will always outvote downstate, even in a Republican primary.

And Santorum will be fine in April as long as he wins the states he's expected to win (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and perhaps Delaware). If he manages to survive there then it will be Romney who will have to face a brutal month in May.

Santorum needs a game changer. Illinois would be one but he's not getting it. In fact, he's probably going to get blown out of the water. On the current trajectory (Santorum winning some of the caucus states and most of the ultra conservative states/Romney winning everything else), Romney wins the nomination. Simple as that.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 19, 2012, 02:55:52 am
Huh? Where does that "It's over!!! Romney has it wrapped up!!!" thing came from the last two days? Mittens was always the heavy favorite in Illinois, even after his southern debacle. A simple look at an Illinois map will show even to the most naive that Chicagoland will always outvote downstate, even in a Republican primary.

And Santorum will be fine in April as long as he wins the states he's expected to win (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and perhaps Delaware). If he manages to survive there then it will be Romney who will have to face a brutal month in May.

Santorum needs a game changer. Illinois would be one but he's not getting it. In fact, he's probably going to get blown out of the water. On the current trajectory (Santorum winning some of the caucus states and most of the ultra conservative states/Romney winning everything else), Romney wins the nomination. Simple as that.

Well, that was pretty obvious always. The point is that even if Romney wins Illinois in a landslide, the primary season isn't going to shut down. The best Democrats can hope for is for him suffering through a grinding process that reaches through June and which weakens him considerably as a GE candidate.

The only possibility for Santorum to do something more than that is if he survives the Northeast Super Tuesday and proceeds to sweep every contest in May (very difficult but not inconceivable), thus making the argument that Mittens is damaged goods and forcing an open convention. 


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on March 19, 2012, 03:37:36 am
Quote
Santorum needs a game changer.

AL+ MS was the game changer for him.

Quote
Illinois would be one but he's not getting it.

Heh, has Illinois ever been predicted for Santorum? Ever?

Quote
In fact, he's probably going to get blown out of the water. On the current trajectory (Santorum winning some of the caucus states and most of the ultra conservative states/Romney winning everything else), Romney wins the nomination. Simple as that.

Not necessarily. He can win enough conservative states, even if he doesn't win IL. If he wins IL - then it's pretty much over for Romney.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 19, 2012, 09:50:50 am
It was over for Santorum when he announced.  Reality takes a while to set in sometimes, kind of like in 2006.

Sam is still busy wiping all of the egg off his face after being proven hilariously wrong about Santorum being a factor. The only thing more embarrassing than being an idiot that predicted Santorum would win in 2006 is being the person that predicted Santorum would never catch fire and then proudly walk around like you're an expert.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on March 19, 2012, 11:15:58 am
Quote
Santorum needs a game changer.

AL+ MS was the game changer for him.

Quote
Illinois would be one but he's not getting it.

Heh, has Illinois ever been predicted for Santorum? Ever?

Quote
In fact, he's probably going to get blown out of the water. On the current trajectory (Santorum winning some of the caucus states and most of the ultra conservative states/Romney winning everything else), Romney wins the nomination. Simple as that.

Not necessarily. He can win enough conservative states, even if he doesn't win IL. If he wins IL - then it's pretty much over for Romney.

Didn't Joe lecture you about this the other day? ;)


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on March 19, 2012, 01:26:55 pm
Quote
Didn't Joe lecture you about this the other day?

About having unpopular opinions?

He was 3rd in MS and AL and won both. That should count as a game changer, no?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Joe Republic on March 19, 2012, 01:29:01 pm
Quote
Didn't Joe lecture you about this the other day?

About having unpopular opinions?

About using the quote function correctly.  More people are starting to complain.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on March 19, 2012, 01:46:05 pm

About using the quote function correctly.  More people are starting to complain.

Oh, well my apologies. This forum uses them differently from other forums, and when I switch back and forth.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 19, 2012, 02:44:40 pm
Ben, they will do anything to tear us down. It isn't even like you attributed someone's quote to someone else. Just let it roll off your back, Ben. [Insert Google Problem joke here.]


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 19, 2012, 03:11:43 pm
Quote
Didn't Joe lecture you about this the other day?

About having unpopular opinions?

He was 3rd in MS and AL and won both. That should count as a game changer, no?

Not really, no. Both are conservative strongholds.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: The Mikado on March 19, 2012, 03:29:58 pm
Ben Kenobi, Santorum can't even begin to erode Romney's lead unless he starts winning states that will give him decisive pools of delegates.  Romney racking up the numbers while Santorum boasts about winning Southern contests that award him practically no net delegates simply will not cut it.  If you note things like how Hawaii neutralized Santorum's win in AL and MS and Romney actually won more delegates and expanded his lead on the night of his "big defeat," you'll start to see the magnitude of the task Santorum faces.  If he's to force the brokered convention, he needs to beat Romney in states like IL, states like NJ, states like...hell, even possibly NY.

I respect the hell out of the campaign Santorum's run.  Being dead serious for a moment, Santorum has literally won states despite being outspent 5/1 or worse.  That's pretty incredible and speaks to how terrible a candidate Romney is the passion of Santorum's supporters.  But unless he shakes the dynamics of the race up, he will lose, even though he'll win another 8-10 states along the way to defeat.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on March 19, 2012, 07:22:34 pm
Ben Kenobi, Santorum can't even begin to erode Romney's lead unless he starts winning states that will give him decisive pools of delegates.  Romney racking up the numbers while Santorum boasts about winning Southern contests that award him practically no net delegates simply will not cut it.  If you note things like how Hawaii neutralized Santorum's win in AL and MS and Romney actually won more delegates and expanded his lead on the night of his "big defeat," you'll start to see the magnitude of the task Santorum faces.  If he's to force the brokered convention, he needs to beat Romney in states like IL, states like NJ, states like...hell, even possibly NY.

Santorum's "southern victory day" ended with a net loss of 7 delegates. 


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on March 19, 2012, 07:33:02 pm
Ben Kenobi, Santorum can't even begin to erode Romney's lead unless he starts winning states that will give him decisive pools of delegates.  Romney racking up the numbers while Santorum boasts about winning Southern contests that award him practically no net delegates simply will not cut it.  If you note things like how Hawaii neutralized Santorum's win in AL and MS and Romney actually won more delegates and expanded his lead on the night of his "big defeat," you'll start to see the magnitude of the task Santorum faces.  If he's to force the brokered convention, he needs to beat Romney in states like IL, states like NJ, states like...hell, even possibly NY.

I respect the hell out of the campaign Santorum's run.  Being dead serious for a moment, Santorum has literally won states despite being outspent 5/1 or worse.  That's pretty incredible and speaks to how terrible a candidate Romney is the passion of Santorum's supporters.  But unless he shakes the dynamics of the race up, he will lose, even though he'll win another 8-10 states along the way to defeat.

Exactly, Santorum's success clearly took him by surprise.

In order for Santorum to win, he needs to keep Romney's PV margins down, but equally, needs to focus on willing delegates... since more delegates are in urban and suburban areas, Romney continues to vacuum up delegates despite losing the popular vote.

Santorum and Romney are in opposite by oddly similar positions. Rick needs to win a major swing state and start to win in urban/suburban areas to increase delegate collection and establish a moral justification for their continued candidacy. Mitt needs to start to expand his base beyond wealthy, educated "yuppie"/suburbanites... in order to create momentum . Mitt also needs to win somewhere that isn't a) a state won by Obama in 2008 (it looks good to some, but only re-enforces the 'moderate' tag) b) a red state by winning the areas that Obama won c) a state with a disproportionate Mormon pop'n d) a state with a majority GOP 'conservative' electorate....



Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on March 19, 2012, 09:58:34 pm
Quote
Ben Kenobi, Santorum can't even begin to erode Romney's lead unless he starts winning states that will give him decisive pools of delegates.  Romney racking up the numbers while Santorum boasts about winning Southern contests that award him practically no net delegates simply will not cut it.  If you note things like how Hawaii neutralized Santorum's win in AL and MS and Romney actually won more delegates and expanded his lead on the night of his "big defeat," you'll start to see the magnitude of the task Santorum faces.  If he's to force the brokered convention, he needs to beat Romney in states like IL, states like NJ, states like...hell, even possibly NY.

I respect the hell out of the campaign Santorum's run.  Being dead serious for a moment, Santorum has literally won states despite being outspent 5/1 or worse.  That's pretty incredible and speaks to how terrible a candidate Romney is the passion of Santorum's supporters.  But unless he shakes the dynamics of the race up, he will lose, even though he'll win another 8-10 states along the way to defeat.

I see the magnitude, and our maths differ. I have him at 22/23 states which may be enough (without IL) to force a convention outright.

Santorum wins IL - he can likely take the nomination. A romney win here is status quo, reinforcing the deadlock.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on March 19, 2012, 11:45:12 pm


I see the magnitude, and our maths differ. I have him at 22/23 states which may be enough (without IL) to force a convention outright.

Santorum wins IL - he can likely take the nomination. A romney win here is status quo, reinforcing the deadlock.


Santorum, to be credible, has to start winning delegates.  Romney on a clear path to victory.  In March, Mittens has increased his lead over Santorum by more than 200 delegates.  That is the status quo.

At best, a Santorum win in IL, in terms of delegates, is highly unlikely.

BTW, according to AP, Romney gained two delegates in MS.  Greenpages said just one soft, but they take a while to update.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 19, 2012, 11:51:20 pm
No, J.J., Romney did not gain any delegates on Santorum in MS. Mitt won 12 delegates, while Rick won 13. Another 12 were won by Newt Gingrich.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 12:37:47 am
No, J.J., Romney did not gain any delegates on Santorum in MS. Mitt won 12 delegates, while Rick won 13. Another 12 were won by Newt Gingrich.

According to AP, Romney now has 14, which I'd guess would be an RNC member.  http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

Greenpages lists it at 13, 12, and 13 for Mitt, with a "soft" delegate.  http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MS-R


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: RI on March 21, 2012, 11:37:22 pm
Santorum up around 10 on the first night of our Louisiana poll...doesn't look like there will be much intrigue there

Gingrich is really fading compared to the other recent LA polls, Romney in a clear second on our first night of calls

And most importantly:

Drew Brees has a very real chance at breaking our all time favorability record...94% in tonight's calls.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 21, 2012, 11:55:19 pm
Good. Santorum needs a solid win to keep the lulz coming.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Matthew on March 21, 2012, 11:57:24 pm
Mitt's net favorability with GOP voters is up 18 points over the last month, suggesting growing acceptance: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/romney-holds-small-lead-nationally.html




Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Matthew on March 22, 2012, 12:19:09 am
Republican voters souring on Santorum a little. His net favorability down 13 pts in last month: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/romney-holds-small-lead-nationally.html


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 22, 2012, 07:39:14 pm
PPP LA poll due out between 10:30 and 11.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 22, 2012, 08:03:05 pm
Mr. Inevitable


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 22, 2012, 10:02:02 pm
Santorum - 42%
Romney - 28%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 8%
Roemer - 2%

Bam.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Alcon on March 22, 2012, 11:07:29 pm
Drew Brees has a 94%-1% approval rating among likely LA primary voters, breaking the previous record (Abraham Lincoln at 91%-2%)


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: ajb on March 23, 2012, 12:42:20 am
One last note before I go to bed- Santorum with a big lead in Nebraska where we went in the field tonight. No surprise.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 23, 2012, 01:16:22 am
One last note before I go to bed- Santorum with a big lead in Nebraska where we went in the field tonight. No surprise.

No way! John King said the other day that its impossible for Santorum to win in Nebraska.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Meeker on March 23, 2012, 01:52:10 am
(http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d159/meekermariner/FinalMap.png)

We all know how this is all going to end...


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 23, 2012, 01:59:51 am
(http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d159/meekermariner/FinalMap.png)

We all know how this is all going to end...

I think Wisconsin and North Carolina could both go either way. But yeah, pretty much.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2012, 02:04:17 am
Montana and Indiana are not Romney-states ... yet.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 23, 2012, 02:08:55 am
I wonder if Ron Paul will make some kind of an effort in Montana even though it's a primary this time instead of a caucus.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2012, 02:13:51 am
I wonder if Ron Paul will make some kind of an effort in Montana even though it's a primary this time instead of a caucus.

Ron Paul's best days of the campaign are behind him already.

With "effort", do you mean he aims for 12% instead of his recent 4-9% ?

The guy should drop out and Newt should follow him.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 23, 2012, 02:18:18 am
Delaware might be fertile ground for Santorum too.

Montana and Indiana are not Romney-states ... yet.

Does anyone know which part of Montana has more sway in a Republican primary? The eastern half, which resembles closely the Dakotas, will be Rick country. If it can outvote the more populous but more Democratic western half then Santorum will be the favorite.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2012, 02:20:26 am
Delaware might be fertile ground for Santorum too.

I'm not sure about that: many bankers and rich people there.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 23, 2012, 02:26:32 am
Delaware might be fertile ground for Santorum too.

I'm not sure about that: many bankers and rich people there.

And many hicks downstate. These are the same people who chose to throw away a Senate seat by choosing a witch over a pillar of the state's political life.

And don't forget that he must be well known (and I assume respected) since they share the Philadelphia media market.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2012, 02:28:32 am
Delaware might be fertile ground for Santorum too.

I'm not sure about that: many bankers and rich people there.

And many hicks downstate. These are the same people who chose to throw away a Senate seat by choosing a witch over a pillar of the state's political life.

On the other hand, Delaware's 2008 primary result mirrored the one in Illinois.

And we know how the IL primary ended this week.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 23, 2012, 02:49:51 am
On the other hand, Delaware's 2008 primary result mirrored the one in Illinois.

And we know how the IL primary ended this week.

McCain's vote both in Illinois and Delaware was pretty homogenous. He didn't have a glaring problem with downscale voters and his military record made him a much better fit for rural areas, where Romney gets killed everytime.
Again, it's a matter of numbers. If Wilmington and subs can outvote the downstate the Mittens wins. If not then Rick wins.  


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Alcon on March 23, 2012, 02:51:10 am
In 2008, a little under half of Republican votes came from New Castle County, compared to about seven-tenths of Democratic votes.



Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: greenforest32 on March 23, 2012, 04:03:33 am
(http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d159/meekermariner/FinalMap.png)

We all know how this is all going to end...

I want to believe otherwise but based on what? Especially not with Newt sticking around this long.

They built up all this suspense only to let the show come to a long, incrementally disappointing close.

Lame


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 23, 2012, 05:31:56 am
Drew Brees has a 94%-1% approval rating among likely LA primary voters, breaking the previous record (Abraham Lincoln at 91%-2%)

Favorability, not approval.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on March 23, 2012, 08:01:08 am
Santorum - 42%
Romney - 28%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 8%
Roemer - 2%

Bam.

Statewide, that translate into 11 Santorum, 9 Romney.  With the CD's assuming Romney comes in third in two (and that really pushing it), Santorum 12, Romney 4, Gingrich 2.  Best case scenario, Rick gains 10 delegates.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Erc on March 23, 2012, 08:28:22 am
Santorum - 42%
Romney - 28%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 8%
Roemer - 2%

Bam.

Statewide, that translate into 11 Santorum, 9 Romney.  With the CD's assuming Romney comes in third in two (and that really pushing it), Santorum 12, Romney 4, Gingrich 2.  Best case scenario, Rick gains 10 delegates.

The delegates by CD are allocated by the caucus process (starting in late April); only 20 At-Large delegates are related to the results of the primary.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 23, 2012, 08:36:30 am
Santorum - 42%
Romney - 28%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 8%
Roemer - 2%

Bam.

Statewide, that translate into 11 Santorum, 9 Romney.  With the CD's assuming Romney comes in third in two (and that really pushing it), Santorum 12, Romney 4, Gingrich 2.  Best case scenario, Rick gains 10 delegates.

Wrong, like usual. It's 12-8 for Rick.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on March 23, 2012, 08:38:02 am
Santorum - 42%
Romney - 28%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 8%
Roemer - 2%

Bam.

Statewide, that translate into 11 Santorum, 9 Romney.  With the CD's assuming Romney comes in third in two (and that really pushing it), Santorum 12, Romney 4, Gingrich 2.  Best case scenario, Rick gains 10 delegates.

The delegates by CD are allocated by the caucus process (starting in late April); only 20 At-Large delegates are related to the results of the primary.

That will translate into a 2 delegate lead.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on March 23, 2012, 08:41:49 am
Santorum - 42%
Romney - 28%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 8%
Roemer - 2%

Bam.

Statewide, that translate into 11 Santorum, 9 Romney.  With the CD's assuming Romney comes in third in two (and that really pushing it), Santorum 12, Romney 4, Gingrich 2.  Best case scenario, Rick gains 10 delegates.

Wrong, like usual. It's 12-8 for Rick.

Yes, four delegate lead for Santorum.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 23, 2012, 08:45:31 am
Santorum - 42%
Romney - 28%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 8%
Roemer - 2%

Bam.

Statewide, that translate into 11 Santorum, 9 Romney.  With the CD's assuming Romney comes in third in two (and that really pushing it), Santorum 12, Romney 4, Gingrich 2.  Best case scenario, Rick gains 10 delegates.

Wrong, like usual. It's 12-8 for Rick.

Yes, four delegate lead for Santorum.

Ok, J.J., you clearly stated Romney would receive nine delegates. In the correct breakdown, it's 12-8, not 11-9.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on March 23, 2012, 09:03:38 am
Santorum - 42%
Romney - 28%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 8%
Roemer - 2%

Bam.

Statewide, that translate into 11 Santorum, 9 Romney.  With the CD's assuming Romney comes in third in two (and that really pushing it), Santorum 12, Romney 4, Gingrich 2.  Best case scenario, Rick gains 10 delegates.

Wrong, like usual. It's 12-8 for Rick.

Yes, four delegate lead for Santorum.

Ok, J.J., you clearly stated Romney would receive nine delegates. In the correct breakdown, it's 12-8, not 11-9.

Yes, and I corrected that, agreeing with you, 4 delegates, based on those number, a 12-8 split.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: RI on March 23, 2012, 09:31:54 am
(http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d159/meekermariner/FinalMap.png)

We all know how this is all going to end...

Santorum will cross 40% in Louisiana and probably a lot more states than that. Gingrich is not a factor anymore.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: argentarius on March 23, 2012, 11:41:18 am
Santorum underpolled in AL/MS, while Romney overpolled. Could be the same story here and Romney could fail to meet the threshold.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 01, 2012, 12:22:01 am
PPP says Tuesday will be brutal for the Anti-Mittens:

Quote
Only real suspense in Maryland looks like whether Romney can get over 50%- my guess is yes. 25+ point victory quite possible

Quote
We're seeing Romney up by a wider margin in Wisconsin than the polls to date as well. Tuesday looks like a blood bath.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 01, 2012, 12:26:05 am
That's okay. I was getting bored anyway. It's probably time to mostly step away from presidential election politics for a few months.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on April 01, 2012, 10:02:28 am
Is PPP going to release some results tonight?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Rowan on April 01, 2012, 05:40:32 pm
Is PPP going to release some results tonight?

After 9:30.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on April 01, 2012, 06:22:05 pm
Is PPP going to release some results tonight?

After 9:30.

Thank you!  :)


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 01, 2012, 08:43:00 pm
MD: Romney 52, Santorum 27, Gingrich 10, Paul 9.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 01, 2012, 09:44:49 pm
WI: Romney 43, Santorum 36, Paul 11, Gingrich 8.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on April 01, 2012, 09:52:21 pm
WI: Romney 43, Santorum 36, Paul 11, Gingrich 8.

Closer, but I'd still expect a win.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 01, 2012, 10:04:53 pm
I love that Rick is kicking ass among young voters. :) Wisconsin is closer than I expected. I like this...


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Alcon on April 01, 2012, 10:18:11 pm
I love that Rick is kicking ass among young voters. :) Wisconsin is closer than I expected. I like this...

Yeah, it's gone from "race is almost certainly over and Santorum is getting spanked" to just "race is almost certainly over."


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on April 01, 2012, 10:25:34 pm
I love that Rick is kicking ass among young voters. :) Wisconsin is closer than I expected. I like this...

Yeah, it's gone from "race is almost certainly over and Santorum is getting spanked" to just "race is almost certainly over."

Romney could gain in excess of 60 delegates on Tuesday.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Nhoj on April 01, 2012, 10:25:48 pm
So their second day of polling in WI was better for rick I take it?

I guess that is what happens when you let mitt campaign in a state. his numbers drop :P


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Caripace Clavicle Moundshroud on April 01, 2012, 10:29:11 pm
This is INFURIATING. Why does the GOP want a brokered convention?

Then again, if Mitt picks John Edwards...Oh, I'm sorry, Marco Rubio, he'll deserve to lose anyway.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Meeker on April 01, 2012, 10:34:10 pm
"People who decided 'in the last few days' in WI (9% of electorate) go Santorum 52, Romney 27."


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 01, 2012, 10:47:09 pm
...and maybe some momentum...


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on April 01, 2012, 10:49:54 pm
...and maybe some momentum...

Most of the momentum he has, he'll lose when he loses Wisconsin.  People are beginning to realize he mathematically won't be able to do it unless he starts having some huge wins in the immediate future.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 02, 2012, 08:58:20 am
...and maybe some momentum...

Most of the momentum he has, he'll lose when he loses Wisconsin.  People are beginning to realize he mathematically won't be able to do it unless he starts having some huge wins in the immediate future.

Momentum in Wisconsin.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Meeker on April 02, 2012, 09:06:53 am
...and maybe some momentum...

Most of the momentum he has, he'll lose when he loses Wisconsin.  People are beginning to realize he mathematically won't be able to do it unless he starts having some huge wins in the immediate future.

Hillary continued to win states long after it was mathematically impossible for her to win.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on April 02, 2012, 02:05:07 pm
Wow, that's big momentum.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on April 02, 2012, 02:06:11 pm
...and maybe some momentum...

Most of the momentum he has, he'll lose when he loses Wisconsin.  People are beginning to realize he mathematically won't be able to do it unless he starts having some huge wins in the immediate future.

Hillary continued to win states long after it was mathematically impossible for her to win.

I'm not saying Santorum won't win states, but he won't win many.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on April 02, 2012, 02:39:14 pm
Quote
I'm not saying Santorum won't win states, but he won't win many.

He's not even hit the halfway point yet. Talk of Santorum dropping out now is massively premature.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: HardRCafé on April 03, 2012, 12:19:58 am
This is INFURIATING. Why does the GOP want a brokered convention?

Because Romney's a twat.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on April 03, 2012, 02:07:23 am
Quote
I'm not saying Santorum won't win states, but he won't win many.

He's not even hit the halfway point yet. Talk of Santorum dropping out now is massively premature.

It doesn't matter if he's hit halfway yet.  He's gaining steam.  And I didn't say Santorum woulddrop out - and I'm not predicting he will.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 03, 2012, 04:00:39 am
This is INFURIATING. Why does the GOP want a brokered convention?

Because Romney's a twat.

Most of the people who seek this office tend to be twats.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: ajb on April 03, 2012, 02:14:24 pm
"We'll release Presidential part of Nevada poll tomorrow. Best numbers for Obama there since he was elected."


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2012, 02:24:42 pm
"We'll release Presidential part of Nevada poll tomorrow. Best numbers for Obama there since he was elected."

Hmm. What does that likely mean ?

Romney and Obama have been within 3 points so far in each PPP poll for Nevada.

Obama by 5-8 most likely.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 03, 2012, 02:26:59 pm
"We'll release Presidential part of Nevada poll tomorrow. Best numbers for Obama there since he was elected."

Hmm. What does that likely mean ?

Romney and Obama have been within 3 points so far in each PPP poll for Nevada.

Obama by 5-8 most likely.

Agreed. Besides, Heller's leading by 3 so it can't be all bad for the GOP.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2012, 10:18:18 pm
"Mitt Romney leads Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania. Full poll around 11:30"


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Meeker on April 04, 2012, 10:20:47 pm
42 Romney, 37 Santorum, 9 Paul, 6 Gingrich


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 04, 2012, 10:22:22 pm
And it's just gonna get worse over the next three weeks.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Meeker on April 04, 2012, 10:25:32 pm
I used to think Santorum would stay in no matter what. I'm now seeing him dropping out 4/24.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: True Federalist on April 04, 2012, 10:32:19 pm
I used to think Santorum would stay in no matter what. I'm now seeing him dropping out 4/24.

If the polling gets worse, he may drop out sooner so he can claim his upcoming loss was due to the nomination being decided before Pennsylvania voted.  Which in many ways is true.  I think Santorum lost Wisconsin because many Republicans decided that it was more important to end the race than it was to find the best candidate.  Santorum's losing the support of those who were hoping for a brokered convention that would choose someone who isn't running as it becomes apparent that the brokered convention won't happen.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2012, 10:32:27 pm
I used to think Santorum would stay in no matter what. I'm now seeing him dropping out 4/24.

Jake Corman did tell The Hill today that Santorum might quit if he thought PA was going to fire him again.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on April 04, 2012, 10:57:27 pm
42 Romney, 37 Santorum, 9 Paul, 6 Gingrich

Frankly, I don't believe it at this point.  Outlier?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: greenforest32 on April 05, 2012, 12:14:52 am
I blame Newt for preventing Santorum from reaching his true peak against Romney among the Republican electorate


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: retromike22 on April 05, 2012, 01:17:18 am
I blame Newt for preventing Santorum from reaching his true peak against Romney among the Republican electorate

I blame Santorum for preventing Newt from reaching his true peak against Romney among the Republican electorate


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Meeker on April 05, 2012, 07:42:02 am
I blame Newt for preventing Santorum from reaching his true peak against Romney among the Republican electorate

I blame Santorum for preventing Newt from reaching his true peak against Romney among the Republican electorate

That doesn't really make much sense. Santorum was still in the low single digits back when Newt was leading in December.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: True Federalist on April 06, 2012, 12:01:10 am
Plus the polling has consistently shown that if either Newt or Rick had dropped out that it would not be the case that vast majority of their supporters would shift to the other anti-Romney..


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: King on April 15, 2012, 05:37:09 pm
PPP calling out bigots on twitter:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/3054_15_04_12_5_35_23.png


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: NVGonzalez on April 15, 2012, 05:40:03 pm
PPP calling out bigots on twitter:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/3054_15_04_12_5_35_23.png

I am going to sig this.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on April 16, 2012, 12:58:35 pm
Right, calling people bigots is really going to make them turn out for you. ;)


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Alcon on April 16, 2012, 01:06:02 pm
Right, calling people bigots is really going to make them turn out for you. ;)

uh?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: King on April 16, 2012, 01:17:56 pm
Right, calling people bigots is really going to make them turn out for you. ;)

uh?

PPP is going to lose fan support in the 54th Annual Pollsters Games.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 16, 2012, 01:52:36 pm
Of course appealing to bigots is one way to get the support of a segment of the electorate in decline while offending the people who have become adults on the topic. 


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2012, 04:38:23 am
Quote
When we added Marco Rubio to the ticket on our Florida poll Mitt Romney dropped from 45% to 43%.

Which basically means FL is a tossup without Rubio on the ticket.

Probably a 45-45 tie. Or Obama is up 50-45 ?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2012, 11:47:55 am
Or Obama is up 50-45 ?

:)


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: ajb on May 03, 2012, 08:32:57 pm
"Obama doing very well on the first night of our Iowa poll, think rumors of his demise there are very exaggerated"

I've been voting for IA for weeks -- it hasn't been polled since mid-Feb, when one DMR poll had Romney up by two. Earlier polls had had Obama ahead, but were from 2011. Time for new data!


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 04, 2012, 12:31:49 am
We just had the very accurate Washington Post Virginia poll backing up PPP's findings in Virginia.

So, Iowa might not be a lost cause yet.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on May 07, 2012, 05:23:35 pm
Quote
Going to have President numbers in Iowa and Ohio tomorrow...Obama looking pretty good in both


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 07, 2012, 06:33:54 pm
I always thought that the polls showing Romney ahead in Iowa were stretching credulity. He is a terrible fit for the state.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 14, 2012, 11:59:13 pm
"Obama doing quite well in New Hampshire, as he was in Iowa last week."

"8% of North Carolinians think being gay should be a felony."


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on July 09, 2012, 11:59:48 pm
Regarding their presidential polls out later today:

Tomorrow's poll releases: Virginia President, North Carolina President, Wisconsin Senate

Another very good poll for Obama in Virginia. Going to be pretty surprised if he doesn't win it again.

Romney's down by decent amount in VA whether you include him or not but Virgil Goode could cause trouble for him there- takes 9% of GOP vote

Our sample is less Democratic this time, and less Democratic than 2008, and Obama still doing very well

Obama's up 11 with independents in Virginia, and he's getting 9% of Republicans while losing just 4% of Democrats

Obama up 85-12 with black voters in NC this month, the 76-20 in June was just an anomaly, as we thought

1 pt race for President in North Carolina this month...probably going to be about like that all the way through

Romney's experience at Bain is an 11 point net negative with North Carolina voters

Paul Ryan on the ticket helps Romney in Wisconsin a lot more than Scott Walker


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 16, 2012, 03:23:56 pm
Regarding NM, ppp says Obama leads by the smallest amount to date. With Martinez as Romney's runningmate, the state is almost tied.

Obamas lead has also dropped "by a fair amount" in Iowa.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 16, 2012, 03:28:36 pm
They said closest its been in over 2 years - a while back PPP had Obama up 7 in New Mexico, so the margin is closer than that.

Any predictions? I say 49-44 Obama. 47-46 Obama with Martinez on the ticket.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on July 16, 2012, 03:49:48 pm
Wow. I wouldn't have guessed this. Fantastic news. And it's PPP to boot!


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Miles on July 16, 2012, 03:52:37 pm
I'll say 50-44 Obama in NM, 48-46 with Martinez; slightly better than tmth's prediction.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on July 17, 2012, 07:41:14 am
Why would his numbers there improve so much, even if they are 50-44 or whatever? That is significantly better then the 56-36 type numbers we have grown use to from this state.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: morgieb on July 17, 2012, 07:59:45 am
Even if this is true, it still seems like an outlier at this stage.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Vern on July 17, 2012, 11:05:00 am
Well, CO has move more toward Romney, so it would seem like NM would get closer as well.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: King on July 17, 2012, 12:28:57 pm
Obama isn't losing NM.  NM Republicans are cattle farmers.  A guy like W (and Reagan) could drive up the turnout on them and charge to victory.  Bush Sr. couldn't, Dole couldn't, McCain couldn't, and Romney won't either.

But not surprising it will flirt with a close race for awhile.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on August 07, 2012, 12:59:17 am
Quote
"Obama leads Romney 49-38 with independents in Colorado"

This is almost identical to the 48-38 lead among Indys in their previous CO poll, in which Obama led by 7 overall.

Considering a sample this time of 35-35-30, Obama should lead by about 3-7 points again.

Quote
"Romney's favorability with Hispanics in Colorado is 28/69"

Quote
"Colorado voters support an assault weapons ban by a 58/35 margin"

Quote
"Obama's up 59-37 in NC with people who've lived in the state less than 20 years. Romney's up 54-41 with people who've been here more than 30"

http://twitter.com/ppppolls


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on August 07, 2012, 01:03:53 am
If I had to estimate PPP's Colorado topline for their release today, it would be 49-44 Obama, based on the above mentioned 35-35-30 sample and the 49-38 Indy split.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2012, 12:25:27 am
Quote
"Obama up on our Iowa and Nevada polls over the weekend but by small margins...much closer than 2008."

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/240188224813817857


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on August 28, 2012, 12:51:52 am
Hardly shocking news, he was leading by only 5 and 6 points in their last polls of the two states.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 02, 2012, 02:12:47 am
PPP polls Colorado, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina this weekend from Friday to Sunday to get a full post-convention look.

Florida and North Carolina will be released later today after 9pm Eastern. The other 2 states will be polled today as well and will be released tomorrow or Tuesday.

Some tweets:

Quote
What we're seeing in our swing state polling tonight: mixed reviews on the Eastwood speech, but his favorability numbers still stratospheric

Quote
Eastwood far more popular than anyone else who spoke at the GOP convention. Only two in the same ballpark are Ann Romney and Condi

Quote
Rubio's approval numbers in Florida looking easily the best they've been since he took office- speech must have been hit at home

Quote
We'll have our first post-convention Presidential polls in Florida and North Carolina tomorrow night after 9


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 02, 2012, 03:38:53 am
Well, come on, the speech was ridiculous/sad but who doesn't like Clint Eastwood?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on September 02, 2012, 08:58:06 pm
So much for a convention bounce in Florida.

Quote
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

No bounce for Romney in Florida- Obama leads 48-47, exactly identical to our last poll there 5 weeks ago
Quote
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

33% in FL said convention made them more likely to vote GOP, 33% less likely to vote GOP, 34% no difference either way


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Meeker on September 02, 2012, 09:01:52 pm
lolz

of course, not expecting an Obama bounce in NC after the DNC either


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 03, 2012, 03:37:37 pm
Obama to still lead in CO (by small margin), and in MI (by bigger margin).


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: pepper11 on September 03, 2012, 03:44:46 pm
Probably suggests a 4 point swing toward Romney in CO.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Caripace Clavicle Moundshroud on September 03, 2012, 03:48:36 pm
Obama to still lead in CO (by small margin), and in MI (by bigger margin).

PPP twitter says smaller margin in both states.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2012, 01:04:51 am
PPP to poll Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio this weekend.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 07, 2012, 01:06:39 am
PPP to poll Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio this weekend.

Wow, nice group.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: pbrower2a on September 07, 2012, 01:06:47 pm
PPP to poll Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio this weekend.

I can't imagine a better group. Except for Montana these states get polled often enough. We shall see how big any DNC bounce is.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 07, 2012, 01:22:43 pm
Polling WI would also be nice to see if the Ryan pick and RNC have really put it in play.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Caripace Clavicle Moundshroud on September 07, 2012, 01:31:24 pm
Minnesota is not going to be competitive, the highest Romney has polled there has been 41%. McCain wasted money there even after it was a lost cause and still couldn't get within single digits.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on September 07, 2012, 09:41:56 pm
Good news for the President, says PPP:

Quote
Things definitely looking good for Obama in the polls we started tonight...we'll see if it holds through the weekend as the DNC fades away


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Caripace Clavicle Moundshroud on September 07, 2012, 10:27:21 pm
Wonder if he'll crack 45% or possibly more in MT.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2012, 11:36:23 am
More twittering:

Quote
We started 5 state polls- some public, some private- and a national poll last night. What they're looking like: 2008

Quote
We'll release the Ohio and maybe North Carolina poll Sunday night- those will be our first post-DNC surveys out

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/244459869439131648


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Yank2133 on September 08, 2012, 11:40:13 am
Good to hear.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Caripace Clavicle Moundshroud on September 08, 2012, 11:50:57 am
More twittering:

Quote
We started 5 state polls- some public, some private- and a national poll last night. What they're looking like: 2008

Quote
We'll release the Ohio and maybe North Carolina poll Sunday night- those will be our first post-DNC surveys out

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/244459869439131648

Beautiful. This also may mean Obama has a chance in MT, though I doubt he'll spend money there.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: mondale84 on September 08, 2012, 03:11:34 pm
What did I say about the DNC bounce? Who listened... ::)


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Thomas D on September 09, 2012, 09:59:28 am
"Plan is to have Ohio results between 9 and 10 tonight- looks like Obama leads there by more than 2008 margin of victory"



Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Yank2133 on September 09, 2012, 10:11:26 am
Makes sense.

Seeing how Team Romney's internals have them down in the high single digits.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 09, 2012, 08:16:22 pm
http://twitter.com/PPPPolling


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 09, 2012, 08:21:40 pm
http://twitter.com/PPPPolling


Haha...that's actually quite funny. And I'm now following them. Did you do that on purpose?

Have to laugh at their electoral projection. http://twitpic.com/aszcz0

(http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/full/653340780.jpg?key=600484&Expires=1347240916&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIYVGSUJFNRFZBBTA&Signature=zXmsST3NmdqT0wUtBcIHHhmlinAyvYfKUBEQSrP0~V8HMvO05alkgcW4KIaz9gE5YjL9N3nfXbiIGHq1HzQ7ULV-aAYw226o7qkliTvDDGuh04eAuqikKG6OEY0NKby4nDUiUipuBffbYHg6ODgQuhkrB5aL~~HVnwiBWr~j0yo_)


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 09, 2012, 08:27:12 pm
And here's @PPPPolling's funniest tweet:

Quote
@PPPPolling: Polls this week will be using a partisan breakdown of D+67, to reflect the Madison, Wisconsin's Starbucks poetry club demographic.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Mr.Phips on September 09, 2012, 08:38:51 pm
Wonder if he'll crack 45% or possibly more in MT.

If he gets 45%+ in Montana, Tester almost certainly survives. 


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 09, 2012, 08:40:17 pm
http://twitter.com/PPPPolling


Blubb?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2012, 03:03:39 pm
PPP to poll Maine, Massachusetts, Virginia, Wisconsin over the next week.

VA & WI over the weekend and ME & MA early next week.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: mondale84 on September 13, 2012, 05:38:18 pm

More right-wing trolls. The account is probably run by AmericanNation which is ironic considering PPP has had some surprisingly Republican-leaning results in recent months.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2012, 01:15:54 am
Apparently support for Virgil Goode (L) is sliding fast in VA:

Quote
"Goode effect already fading in Virginia as the election comes closer- very little support on first night of our poll."


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on September 14, 2012, 05:13:44 am
Apparently support for Virgil Goode (L) is sliding fast in VA:

Quote
"Goode effect already fading in Virginia as the election comes closer- very little support on first night of our poll."
Constitution, not Libertarian.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2012, 07:01:16 am
Apparently support for Virgil Goode (L) is sliding fast in VA:

Quote
"Goode effect already fading in Virginia as the election comes closer- very little support on first night of our poll."
Constitution, not Libertarian.

That's what happens when you post early in the morning ... :P


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: True Federalist on September 14, 2012, 08:09:33 pm
I never expected Goode (or Johnson) to do better than the MoE in any state come election day.  Most of their poll support represents is people who wish they had someone other than Obama or Romney to win.  Most of those people will either end up choosing who they think is the lesser of two weevils, or simply not vote.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 16, 2012, 11:51:24 am
BREAKING:

PPP to poll "everything" the week before the election.

Quote
"Seems possible we won't poll PA again until the last week before the election when we poll everything - wouldn't have expected that year ago."

Also:

Quote
"We will be releasing Virginia President and Massachusetts Senate numbers tonight."

http://twitter.com/ppppolls


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on September 16, 2012, 12:10:05 pm
BREAKING:

PPP to poll "everything" the week before the election.

Quote
"Seems possible we won't poll PA again until the last week before the election when we poll everything - wouldn't have expected that year ago."

Also:

Quote
"We will be releasing Virginia President and Massachusetts Senate numbers tonight."

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

Awesome! Here's hoping they include all and sundry third-party candidates.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on September 16, 2012, 04:59:29 pm
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/247451449250955264

Quote
Elizabeth Warren leads in the MA-Sen poll we will release tonight. Last month we found her down by 5 pts.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on September 16, 2012, 05:19:11 pm
Not terribly surprising, IMO. Though anything more than a 2 or 3 point lead is a stretch for me to believe at this point.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on September 16, 2012, 06:08:31 pm
Quote
73% of Democrats in Virginia are 'very excited' to vote, 63% of Republicans are. 85% of African Americans, 57% of whites

This flies in the face of the right wing CW that Democrats and minorities are not enthusiastic and will not vote in the same numbers as 2008.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on September 16, 2012, 06:29:48 pm
PPP says Obama has a "decent lead" in Virginia, similar to his leads in their past polls of the state.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 16, 2012, 06:51:30 pm
last two PPP polls in VA
PPP (D)   8/16 - 8/19   LV    Obama +5
PPP (D)   7/5 - 7/8  RV Obama +8

My prediction is Obama +3 or 4


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 16, 2012, 07:26:45 pm
It's Obama +5


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on September 16, 2012, 08:36:33 pm
Quote
We find Elizabeth Warren leading Scott Brown 48-46 in MA-Sen. Last month she was down 49-44. D+21 sample, 2008 was D+26.
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/247508319684665344


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on September 18, 2012, 10:00:30 pm
PPP is in the field with another Wisconsin poll for some reason?

Quote
Wisconsin first place we've polled since Romney's comments came out, pretty strong sense among voters there that they were inappropriate

Quote
Obama also looking better on the first night of our Wisconsin poll than he has on our last two surveys there


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Mister Twister on September 18, 2012, 10:01:50 pm
PPP is in the field with another Wisconsin poll for some reason?

Quote
Wisconsin first place we've polled since Romney's comments came out, pretty strong sense among voters there that they were inappropriate

Quote
Obama also looking better on the first night of our Wisconsin poll than he has on our last two surveys there

The most recent WI poll was a private poll that paid PPP to poll there. This one coming out is the "real" one.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 18, 2012, 10:59:06 pm
I'm very interested to see any and all post-47% polling. That story didn't really blow up until today though.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 23, 2012, 07:32:43 am
PPP will release CO & FL tonight.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: pepper11 on September 23, 2012, 09:39:07 am
If PPP isnt throwing down tweets on CO and FL, I suspect these may turn out allright for Romney.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 23, 2012, 12:36:43 pm
If PPP isnt throwing down tweets on CO and FL, I suspect these may turn out allright for Romney.

PPP's latest tweet from 1 hour ago suggests this is true.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Earthling on September 23, 2012, 12:50:43 pm
Probably Obama up by 1 or 2 in Florida and 2 or 3 in Colorado. Not really numbers that are newsworthy and more in line with most polls in these states. But with PPP they are positive for Romney.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 23, 2012, 07:14:32 pm
Obama up 4 with crashing Romney favourables isn't exactly bad news...


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Thomas D on September 30, 2012, 09:07:20 am
"Our Ohio poll tonight is going to be good news for Mitt Romney, at least on the curve of all these polls showing him down 8-10 there"


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 30, 2012, 09:13:22 am
"Our Ohio poll tonight is going to be good news for Mitt Romney, at least on the curve of all these polls showing him down 8-10 there"

So... Obama up 3-5%?

(which is what I think the result will be in OH)

If I remember correctly the last PPP poll from OH was Obama +5


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Thomas D on October 10, 2012, 06:04:26 pm
BREAKING NEWS!!!

PPP DEMANDS COOKIE



"We put Gary Johnson in both polls we released today, I think we deserve a cookie"


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on October 10, 2012, 08:26:35 pm
When will this be released?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 10, 2012, 08:30:38 pm
Um... I assume that's the MT and NV polls


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on October 10, 2012, 08:33:13 pm
Um... I assume that's the MT and NV polls

I thought they were releasing OH tonight.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: philly09 on October 12, 2012, 09:56:44 pm
From about an hour ago.

Ohio looks pretty darn close on the first night of our poll there. We'll do more calls tomorrow and have results in the evening

When we release the Ohio poll tomorrow there will be a breakdown of people who've already voted vs. have yet to vote


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 12, 2012, 10:00:18 pm
Considering Romney has been virtually living there and the $38 million anti-Obama ad blitz... if it wasn't tight.. I'd be mighty surprised


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 12, 2012, 10:11:51 pm
The last PPP OH poll was only Obama+4 when NBC, CBS, FOX WAPO were in the Obama +8-10 range. I wouldn't be surprised if their poll showed a small Romney lead or a tie.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 12, 2012, 10:34:20 pm
The last PPP OH poll was only Obama+4 when NBC, CBS, FOX WAPO were in the Obama +8-10 range. I wouldn't be surprised if their poll showed a small Romney lead or a tie.

Yeah, this. The automated/non-cell phone poll vs. traditional/cell phone-included poll division has been especially stark in Ohio for whatever reason.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 13, 2012, 12:27:04 am
I'd be happy with Obama +1 from them.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 13, 2012, 12:33:50 am
I'd be happy with Obama +1 from them.

Which is what I'm expecting...


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: philly09 on October 13, 2012, 12:44:45 am
As an aside, Amy Walter of ABC tweeted that at a Peter Hart focus group in Ohio, voters were critical of Obama's debate performance, but are cutting him lots of slack for having a bad night.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Umengus on October 13, 2012, 12:43:22 pm
PublicPolicyPolling‏@ppppolls

 VP debate looks like a draw in the swing states where we launched polls tonight. Not a game changer either way
 


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 13, 2012, 03:35:23 pm
I think Romney will have small lead in OH with those yet to vote and Obama will have big lead with those who already voted


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Marston on October 13, 2012, 06:20:58 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Barack Obama was a lot stronger in our Saturday Ohio polling than Friday night. We'll have the final results soon


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 13, 2012, 06:23:43 pm
Thank the good lord!


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 13, 2012, 06:24:41 pm
Bidmentum!


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Devils30 on October 13, 2012, 06:28:54 pm
I'm gonna guess 49-46 or 50-47 obama


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Ty440 on October 13, 2012, 06:36:21 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Barack Obama was a lot stronger in our Saturday Ohio polling than Friday night. We'll have the final results soon

                                      HALLELUJAH!!!


(http://slangcath.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/hallelujah.jpg)


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 13, 2012, 06:41:14 pm
I think Romney will have small lead in OH with those yet to vote and Obama will have big lead with those who already voted

Quote
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
19% of Ohioans say they've already voted and Obama has a 76-24 advantage with them. Romney up 51-45 with folks who haven't voted yet



Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 13, 2012, 06:45:39 pm
Yup, Obama's GOTV is pretty fantastic.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 13, 2012, 07:07:20 pm
Remember all that talk about Obama's burn rate and how they were blowing all their cash? Well this is what they were spending it on, a huge and sophisticated ground operation in all the swing states. It is what has kept NC competitive when it should be polling like IN and it has helped turn OH (a traditionally lean R swing state) into a sort of trump card in a close election.

 Of course if Obama screws up in Debate #2 there is only so much a good campaign can do.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: philly09 on October 14, 2012, 09:03:04 pm
That's all for tonight. We haven't polled Pennsylvania forever so we snuck an extra poll in there for tomorrow. CO, IA, NH later in the week


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 14, 2012, 10:01:31 pm
That's all for tonight. We haven't polled Pennsylvania forever so we snuck an extra poll in there for tomorrow. CO, IA, NH later in the week

I'm curious about Iowa.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on October 14, 2012, 10:24:42 pm
That's all for tonight. We haven't polled Pennsylvania forever so we snuck an extra poll in there for tomorrow. CO, IA, NH later in the week

I'm curious about Iowa.

I am curious about all three.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 14, 2012, 10:26:38 pm
I've been waiting on something from PPP for our Senate race so this is pretty awesome news.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2012, 12:24:20 am
What PPP plans for the next couple of days:

Quote
Colorado we're going to try something new and conduct the poll completely in the 30 minutes after the Presidential debate ends on Tuesday night- that will give us a swing state snap poll on the debate in addition to the national ones other media organizations will do.

Iowa and New Hampshire will go into the field on Wednesday night after the debate and we'll release those either Thursday night or during the day on Friday.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 15, 2012, 12:26:27 am
Quote
Colorado we're going to try something new and conduct the poll completely in the 30 minutes after the Presidential debate ends on Tuesday night- that will give us a swing state snap poll on the debate in addition to the national ones other media organizations will do.

Terrible idea.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 15, 2012, 12:48:43 am
Quote
Colorado we're going to try something new and conduct the poll completely in the 30 minutes after the Presidential debate ends on Tuesday night- that will give us a swing state snap poll on the debate in addition to the national ones other media organizations will do.

Terrible idea.

Yeah, that's incredibly dumb for a number of reasons.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 15, 2012, 01:57:09 am
What PPP plans for the next couple of days:

Quote
Colorado we're going to try something new and conduct the poll completely in the 30 minutes after the Presidential debate ends on Tuesday night- that will give us a swing state snap poll on the debate in addition to the national ones other media organizations will do.

Iowa and New Hampshire will go into the field on Wednesday night after the debate and we'll release those either Thursday night or during the day on Friday.

I don't see the tweet where they say that.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Northeast Rep Snowball on October 15, 2012, 07:40:15 am
Quote
Colorado we're going to try something new and conduct the poll completely in the 30 minutes after the Presidential debate ends on Tuesday night- that will give us a swing state snap poll on the debate in addition to the national ones other media organizations will do.

Terrible idea.

Yeah, that's incredibly dumb for a number of reasons.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 15, 2012, 01:10:08 pm
Our PPP poll will have the most pessimistic Obama numbers of the week. - @markos




Great news!


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2012, 01:22:18 pm
Our PPP poll will have the most pessimistic Obama numbers of the week. - @markos




Great news!

They are probably setting a low bar for Obama this week, so they can show a big bounce next week ...


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2012, 01:22:44 pm
What PPP plans for the next couple of days:

Quote
Colorado we're going to try something new and conduct the poll completely in the 30 minutes after the Presidential debate ends on Tuesday night- that will give us a swing state snap poll on the debate in addition to the national ones other media organizations will do.

Iowa and New Hampshire will go into the field on Wednesday night after the debate and we'll release those either Thursday night or during the day on Friday.

I don't see the tweet where they say that.


Because it's no tweet:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/colorado-florida-iowa-new-hampshire-north-carolina-and-ohio-question-suggestions.html


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 15, 2012, 01:26:34 pm
Our PPP poll will have the most pessimistic Obama numbers of the week. - @markos




Great news!

They are probably setting a low bar for Obama this week, so they can show a big bounce next week ...

When will this poll be released?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2012, 01:28:59 pm
Our PPP poll will have the most pessimistic Obama numbers of the week. - @markos




Great news!

They are probably setting a low bar for Obama this week, so they can show a big bounce next week ...

When will this poll be released?

They always release their weekly poll on Tuesday.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Umengus on October 15, 2012, 01:47:20 pm
Our PPP poll will have the most pessimistic Obama numbers of the week. - @markos




Great news!

They are probably setting a low bar for Obama this week, so they can show a big bounce next week ...

ppp pollsters are honest people. No ?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 15, 2012, 01:51:39 pm
Yeah you can definitely see this one coming from a mile away.. PPP weekly poll will be very pessimistic for Obama this week, then show a big bounce next week to try to get him momentum.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 15, 2012, 02:04:27 pm
Yeah you can definitely see this one coming from a mile away.. PPP weekly poll will be very pessimistic for Obama this week, then show a big bounce next week to try to get him momentum.
It really does seem quite likely. There's no reason for numbers coming out right now to be particularly pessimistic for Obama, unless they are polling for some sort of unthought of element or something, so it may well be a builder. I'm not going to say that PPP is purposely skewing their polls (perhaps, but it's unlikely) but maybe they got a poor sample and will over publish it in this case knowing it will revert back.

Of course, maybe it really just is a bunch of bad numbers for Obama/an honestly bad sample. Often around here we forget that the simple, non-conspiracy path is always a possibility.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Umengus on October 15, 2012, 02:26:42 pm
Yeah you can definitely see this one coming from a mile away.. PPP weekly poll will be very pessimistic for Obama this week, then show a big bounce next week to try to get him momentum.
It really does seem quite likely. There's no reason for numbers coming out right now to be particularly pessimistic for Obama, unless they are polling for some sort of unthought of element or something, so it may well be a builder. I'm not going to say that PPP is purposely skewing their polls (perhaps, but it's unlikely) but maybe they got a poor sample and will over publish it in this case knowing it will revert back.

Of course, maybe it really just is a bunch of bad numbers for Obama/an honestly bad sample. Often around here we forget that the simple, non-conspiracy path is always a possibility.

their last poll was bad for Obama (R by 2 I think). Maybe R+3 or +4 now. The thing to see will be the party id of the sample...


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 15, 2012, 02:38:50 pm
Yeah you can definitely see this one coming from a mile away.. PPP weekly poll will be very pessimistic for Obama this week, then show a big bounce next week to try to get him momentum.
It really does seem quite likely. There's no reason for numbers coming out right now to be particularly pessimistic for Obama, unless they are polling for some sort of unthought of element or something, so it may well be a builder. I'm not going to say that PPP is purposely skewing their polls (perhaps, but it's unlikely) but maybe they got a poor sample and will over publish it in this case knowing it will revert back.

Of course, maybe it really just is a bunch of bad numbers for Obama/an honestly bad sample. Often around here we forget that the simple, non-conspiracy path is always a possibility.

their last poll was bad for Obama (R by 2 I think). Maybe R+3 or +4 now. The thing to see will be the party id of the sample...
I'll just take this moment out of my otherwise busy day to remind all, yet again, that party id is a nearly useless stat, the investigation of which brings forth almost no actual knowledge. Thank you for your time, you may all now return to your regular trollings.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 15, 2012, 03:37:49 pm
what is with all the conspiracy theories. Maybe just maybe Romney is polling well in the upcoming PPP poll. If PPP was trying to set up a Obama comeback for next week why release a poll showing him up 5 in OH?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 15, 2012, 05:15:37 pm
what is with all the conspiracy theories. Maybe just maybe Romney is polling well in the upcoming PPP poll. If PPP was trying to set up a Obama comeback for next week why release a poll showing him up 5 in OH?
People don't know what else to do in a thread. As the election gets close, everyone is getting increasingly nervous, and these things are the natural result. Just gotta "Keep Calm And Post On."


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Vosem on October 15, 2012, 05:18:07 pm
PPP does have a small Democratic house effect, but it tends to wear off before the election. (I'm not saying they intentionally skew their numbers, there is zero evidence to that effect). Since, for instance, Nate Silver's model counts house effects, you can be sure a PPP poll showing Romney+3 (or more) would result in Romney gaining even further in the model.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 15, 2012, 05:19:37 pm
I think it's Romney+1 or 2


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Thomas D on October 17, 2012, 08:42:37 pm
PPP keeping things light in the closing weeks:


"About 15% of New Hampshire voters have an opinion on Panetta/Burns, which I made up"


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 17, 2012, 09:07:50 pm
The more interesting tweet was this....
Quote
@ppppolls
Not seeing anything in our polls tonight to suggest a big shift back toward Obama- think things will go on similar to how they have been

No Bounce?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 17, 2012, 09:11:56 pm
It took a couple of days for the Romney bounce to filter through... so we won't know until the weekend.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 17, 2012, 09:12:32 pm
The more interesting tweet was this....
Quote
@ppppolls
Not seeing anything in our polls tonight to suggest a big shift back toward Obama- think things will go on similar to how they have been

No Bounce?

I think that will be the key point and also this is important:

Quote
ublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Obama's looking better in Colorado than Iowa or New Hampshire, which is actually kind of consistent with what went down those places in 2010

Colorado+Ohio = Election win


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 17, 2012, 09:15:33 pm
The more interesting tweet was this....
Quote
@ppppolls
Not seeing anything in our polls tonight to suggest a big shift back toward Obama- think things will go on similar to how they have been

No Bounce?

Still very early. Remember that coverage of the debate is more important than the debate itself.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: pepper11 on October 17, 2012, 10:32:16 pm
The more interesting tweet was this....
Quote
@ppppolls
Not seeing anything in our polls tonight to suggest a big shift back toward Obama- think things will go on similar to how they have been

No Bounce?

Still very early. Remember that coverage of the debate is more important than the debate itself.

How could either candidate possibly get a bounce from yesterday.  It was the most un-newsworthy debate ever. When Candy Crowley's "fact checking" gets 95% of the coverage, there is not going to be a change in the polls.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 17, 2012, 10:55:27 pm
The more interesting tweet was this....
Quote
@ppppolls
Not seeing anything in our polls tonight to suggest a big shift back toward Obama- think things will go on similar to how they have been

No Bounce?

Still very early. Remember that coverage of the debate is more important than the debate itself.

How could either candidate possibly get a bounce from yesterday.  It was the most un-newsworthy debate ever. When Candy Crowley's "fact checking" gets 95% of the coverage, there is not going to be a change in the polls.

How was anything that happened in the first debate more notable than Romney getting called out on a lie by both the President and the moderator?

Obama looked tired and disinterested in the first debate. That was the only thing that was notable about it. Nothing either of them said was particularly important and it's not like Romney's performance was particularly exceptional.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 18, 2012, 05:40:35 pm
Quote
Our Iowa poll tomorrow is going to be a whole lot better for Romney than the NBC one tonight

So they probably have a Romney lead in the state


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Thomas D on October 18, 2012, 05:42:05 pm
Quote
Our Iowa poll tomorrow is going to be a whole lot better for Romney than the NBC one tonight

So they probably have a Romney lead in the state

Maybe Obama + 1


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on October 18, 2012, 05:45:22 pm
Quote
Our Iowa poll tomorrow is going to be a whole lot better for Romney than the NBC one tonight

So they probably have a Romney lead in the state

I could believe it, the absentee applications are showing much better than 2008 for the R's, and this was after a strong start for the D's.  And they keep on getting better.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: TrapperHawk on October 18, 2012, 05:54:29 pm
Quote
Our Iowa poll tomorrow is going to be a whole lot better for Romney than the NBC one tonight

So they probably have a Romney lead in the state

Maybe Obama + 1

Probably. Then again, Obama is up 8 points in the NBC/Marist poll. Obama can still be up by 3 and technically Romney is doing a "whole lot better." I'm guessing that PPP will have Iowa tied though.

I like PPP, but I am getting a bit annoyed with their little cryptic hints on Twitter. Maybe I'm just old fashioned, but I think its amateurish. They need to post their results and stop pretending that they're the damned Riddler or something. This is just my annoying, boorish opinion. Probably the only one who thinks this way.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 18, 2012, 05:57:36 pm
I'd say a tie or a point either way.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 19, 2012, 11:31:09 am
Romney up 49-48 in NH, full results out between 1 and 2. Iowa will also be out around that time.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 22, 2012, 12:14:32 pm
HUGE OBAMA SURGE

Quote
@markos Just got back the weekly PPP poll for dKos/SEIU, and it's a whole different ball game from last week. Full results Tue morning


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: LiberalJunkie on October 22, 2012, 12:30:04 pm
HUGE OBAMA SURGE

Quote
@markos Just got back the weekly PPP poll for dKos/SEIU, and it's a whole different ball game from last week. Full results Tue morning

Sounds awesome!


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 22, 2012, 12:34:12 pm
Those who couldn't see this coming from a mile away are obviously blinded.. I said last week that dailykos/PPP were going to have a strong Romney poll backed by a strong Obama poll after the debate to promote momentum. Here it is.

HUGE OBAMA SURGE

Quote
@markos Just got back the weekly PPP poll for dKos/SEIU, and it's a whole different ball game from last week. Full results Tue morning


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: old timey villain on October 22, 2012, 12:36:42 pm
Couldn't that mean a big swing to Romney?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 22, 2012, 01:17:46 pm
Couldn't that mean a big swing to Romney?

The last poll they took had Romney up substantially. A whole different ballgame to me implies a change in lead...


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 22, 2012, 01:42:48 pm
I'll guess Obama +3.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Thomas D on October 29, 2012, 01:11:49 pm
"Democrats say they would be willing to spend the night in a haunted house, Republicans say they would not"

Sissies. :P


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: philly09 on November 02, 2012, 11:39:29 am
"On our final polls we're prodding undecideds and not seeing any evidence they lean strongly one way or another- that's good news for Obama"

'There's a school of thought that undecideds will break en masse toward the challenger but we're just not seeing that so far this year'

"Here's where we'll be releasing polls over the next 72 hours: AZ, CO, CT, FL, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WA, WI"

"The final round of poll releases will start tonight with states we're mostly polling for the Senate- CT, MA, ME"

"The major Presidential swing states- CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA will all be late Sunday/early Monday releases"


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: HokeyDood on November 02, 2012, 11:55:55 am
"On our final polls we're prodding undecideds and not seeing any evidence they lean strongly one way or another- that's good news for Obama"

'There's a school of thought that undecideds will break en masse toward the challenger but we're just not seeing that so far this year'

"Here's where we'll be releasing polls over the next 72 hours: AZ, CO, CT, FL, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WA, WI"

"The final round of poll releases will start tonight with states we're mostly polling for the Senate- CT, MA, ME"

"The major Presidential swing states- CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA will all be late Sunday/early Monday releases"

It's all over!  CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!  IT'S ALL OVER!  CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 03, 2012, 05:03:54 am
"On our final polls we're prodding undecideds and not seeing any evidence they lean strongly one way or another- that's good news for Obama"

'There's a school of thought that undecideds will break en masse toward the challenger but we're just not seeing that so far this year'

"Here's where we'll be releasing polls over the next 72 hours: AZ, CO, CT, FL, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WA, WI"

"The final round of poll releases will start tonight with states we're mostly polling for the Senate- CT, MA, ME"

"The major Presidential swing states- CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA will all be late Sunday/early Monday releases"

Glorious!


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on November 03, 2012, 07:10:46 am
"On our final polls we're prodding undecideds and not seeing any evidence they lean strongly one way or another- that's good news for Obama"

'There's a school of thought that undecideds will break en masse toward the challenger but we're just not seeing that so far this year'

"Here's where we'll be releasing polls over the next 72 hours: AZ, CO, CT, FL, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WA, WI"

"The final round of poll releases will start tonight with states we're mostly polling for the Senate- CT, MA, ME"

"The major Presidential swing states- CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA will all be late Sunday/early Monday releases"

It's all over!  CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!  IT'S ALL OVER!  CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!

Ever hear of Mypalfish? 


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 03, 2012, 07:34:50 am
"On our final polls we're prodding undecideds and not seeing any evidence they lean strongly one way or another- that's good news for Obama"

'There's a school of thought that undecideds will break en masse toward the challenger but we're just not seeing that so far this year'

"Here's where we'll be releasing polls over the next 72 hours: AZ, CO, CT, FL, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WA, WI"

"The final round of poll releases will start tonight with states we're mostly polling for the Senate- CT, MA, ME"

"The major Presidential swing states- CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA will all be late Sunday/early Monday releases"

It's all over!  CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!  IT'S ALL OVER!  CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!

Ever hear of Mypalfish?  

I wouldn't say it's over but are you still predicting a Romney victory (in the EC)?


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on November 03, 2012, 09:48:54 am


Ever hear of Mypalfish?  

I wouldn't say it's over but are you still predicting a Romney victory (in the EC)?
[/quote]

Yes, I think he pulls OH (and IA, though it won't be decisive). 

This is a turnout election.  In a couple of states, WI and OH, R's have something close to Obama's 2008 ground game.  I'm not certain he has his 2008 ground game. 

Part of the 2008 ground game was registration; the Republicans have won that phase already. 

I'll have something on PA by 3:00 PM on election day.



Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Franzl on November 03, 2012, 09:53:53 am
I'll have something on PA by 3:00 PM on election day.

I can't wait for your crucial report.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 03, 2012, 09:54:52 am
Quote
Yes, I think he pulls OH (and IA, though it won't be decisive).  

So you think there will be a massive polling failure on a scale unprecedented in recent United States elections? Cool.

Quote
This is a turnout election.  In a couple of states, WI and OH, R's have something close to Obama's 2008 ground game.  I'm not certain he has his 2008 ground game.

Right, he has a much better ground game than his 2008 one. Romney's/the RNC's is still noticeably behind, according to essentially every article I've read about ground game, but if you can find something different, please feel free to post it.

Quote
Part of the 2008 ground game was registration; the Republicans have won that phase already.  

More of a wash, actually. Democrats increased in some states, Republicans closed the gap in others.

Quote
I'll have something on PA by 3:00 PM on election day.

Oh great, more anecdotal evidence that you use to call an entire election. I can't wait!


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on November 03, 2012, 09:57:08 am
I'll have something on PA by 3:00 PM on election day.

I can't wait for your crucial report.

You may wish to. 


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Franzl on November 03, 2012, 10:00:17 am
I'll have something on PA by 3:00 PM on election day.

I can't wait for your crucial report.

You may wish to. 

Actually, I don't really care, as I take you and your reports and analysis about as seriously as Dick Morris, but I'm kind of looking forward to listening to your excuses on Tuesday night.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on November 03, 2012, 10:02:23 am

So you think there will be a massive polling failure on a scale unprecedented in recent United States elections? Cool.

No, I think PPP has a higher house effect that is being admitted to and that Marist is crap.  

Quote

Right, he has a much better ground game than his 2008 one. Romney's/the RNC's is still noticeably behind, according to essentially every article I've read about ground game, but if you can find something different, please feel free to post it.

Everything I've head and seen is that Romney is hitting more, especially in the swing states.  

Quote
 

More of a wash, actually. Democrats increased in some states, Republicans closed the gap in others.

Ah, no, I just posted the NC figures and I have posted the PA figures previously.  

Quote
Oh great, more anecdotal evidence that you use to call an entire election. I can't wait!

BTW, it was right the last time.  :)


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 03, 2012, 10:10:54 am
Well you've dismissed PPP and Marist (despite clinging to Rasmussen, which is much more "crap" than either), but you seem to be ignoring SUSA, CNN, Time, University of Cincinnati, Quinnipiac, Ipsos, Fox, and Purple Strategies. Fact: there is not a single non-partisan public poll showing Mitt Romney winning Ohio. Not one. Even Rasmussen has moved back into a tie.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on November 03, 2012, 10:12:25 am
I'll have something on PA by 3:00 PM on election day.

I can't wait for your crucial report.

You may wish to. 

Actually, I don't really care, as I take you and your reports and analysis about as seriously as Dick Morris, but I'm kind of looking forward to listening to your excuses on Tuesday night.

My prediction is 205 at 1:30-1:45 PM.  It was 214 in 2008.  I expect this to drop due to registration changes.  It was around 170 in 2004.  If it is below 160, Obama might have a problem.  

I expect Obama to carry PA.  


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on November 03, 2012, 10:17:04 am
Well you've dismissed PPP and Marist (despite clinging to Rasmussen, which is much more "crap" than either), but you seem to be ignoring SUSA, CNN, Time, University of Cincinnati, Quinnipiac, Ipsos, Fox, and Purple Strategies. Fact: there is not a single non-partisan public poll showing Mitt Romney winning Ohio. Not one. Even Rasmussen has moved back into a tie.

Where have I "dismissed" PPP; I've said they house effect, and that can be compensated for.  UC a +4 for "Other," but that is still in MOE. 


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Franzl on November 03, 2012, 10:18:02 am
Well you've dismissed PPP and Marist (despite clinging to Rasmussen, which is much more "crap" than either), but you seem to be ignoring SUSA, CNN, Time, University of Cincinnati, Quinnipiac, Ipsos, Fox, and Purple Strategies. Fact: there is not a single non-partisan public poll showing Mitt Romney winning Ohio. Not one. Even Rasmussen has moved back into a tie.

Where have I "dismissed" PPP; I've said they house effect, and that can be compensated for.  UC a +4 for "Other," but that is still in MOE. 

What about all the other polls? You can't just take PPP and subtract a certain amount and declare that the final correct margin.

Well, actually, you probably think that is how it works...


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: J. J. on November 03, 2012, 10:21:32 am
Well you've dismissed PPP and Marist (despite clinging to Rasmussen, which is much more "crap" than either), but you seem to be ignoring SUSA, CNN, Time, University of Cincinnati, Quinnipiac, Ipsos, Fox, and Purple Strategies. Fact: there is not a single non-partisan public poll showing Mitt Romney winning Ohio. Not one. Even Rasmussen has moved back into a tie.

Where have I "dismissed" PPP; I've said they house effect, and that can be compensated for.  UC a +4 for "Other," but that is still in MOE. 

What about all the other polls? You can't just take PPP and subtract a certain amount and declare that the final correct margin.

Well, actually, you probably think that is how it works...

I do understand that, but I treat is as a rule of thumb.  I am saying that there is this house effect.  We'll see if Obama wins Ohio by 4.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 03, 2012, 12:03:17 pm
Now kids, comparing Dick Morris to JJ is totally unfair.

Morris is deliriously funny while JJ is just boring and/or annoying.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Thomas D on November 03, 2012, 05:53:59 pm
"Barack Obama has expanded his lead in our national tracking poll to 50-47, the first time either candidate has led by more than 2 pts"


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 03, 2012, 06:15:12 pm
Full numbers from PPP:


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TrackingPoll_113.pdf


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 03, 2012, 06:16:10 pm
"@ppppolls: Barack Obama has led the last 4 individual nights of our national tracking"


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: villainsaff on November 03, 2012, 06:16:57 pm
He leads with Indys in the new PPP poll.


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Thomas D on November 03, 2012, 06:32:10 pm
"Obama leads 67/28 with Hispanics and 89/9 with blacks- that will win it for him if he stays within 20 among whites"



Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Ty440 on November 03, 2012, 06:38:03 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Obama has also reduced his deficit with white voters from 20+ points a week ago to now 17 at 57/40:

Great news! Obama is surging nationally with whites!


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 03, 2012, 06:39:52 pm
"Obama leads 67/28 with Hispanics and 89/9 with blacks- that will win it for him if he stays within 20 among whites"



The fact he's actually under performing a bit with blacks... and he's still at 89%


Title: Re: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 03, 2012, 06:40:35 pm
"Obama leads 67/28 with Hispanics and 89/9 with blacks- that will win it for him if he stays within 20 among whites"



The fact he's actually under performing a bit with blacks... and he's still at 89%

That is mostly due to the fact PPP only polls land lines.