Talk Elections

So Atlasians, it's the big day and I was wondering what the final predictions of the board users are. For the record I voted Santorum, but by a slim margin. Romney will walk away with more delegates of course due to his win in Arizona. That being said, the narrative will hurt Romney and bolster Santorum going into Super Tuesday.

So, what's your take?

I've held out that Rick was going to pull off a win in MI since the 8th of February, I'm not going to abandon him now.

IF Romney has this big a lead in early voters I think he will pull it out...very close one

My heart says Rick, but my money is on Mitt.

He will again prove that money can buy you love votes

Since the latest polls have shown that the momentum is shifting towards Santorum, I say Santorum wins with a considerable margin, i.e. he will be more than 5% ahead of Romney.

One thing is apparent even if Rick comes in a close 2nd. The ground game is coming up huge for him.
His campaign staff, or maybe just the one or two top people advising him, have been greatly underestimated. It was widely reported that Mitt's "organization" was just vastly superior then anyone else in this primary battle. Does that really seem to be the case at this point?
After Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado and now Michigan, I don't think you can say it is all just about Rick himself. There are very subtle things happening in this campaign that have to be attributed to some very smart people behind the scenes. And I don't think with this crazy primary schedule any candidate has the time to plan all these moves for themselves.
For example, Rick had a horrible bump down after the Arizona debate. Most campaign's can't recover from something like that in just a week. (like Gov Perry).
But just a few subtle things may have helped Rick's campaign reverse things again.
Very very small things. Like Santorum's Ford NASCAR sponsorship during the Daytona 500, or the college "snob" comment, even though it was directed at Obama.

My prediction is Santorum by a very small margin. My lead in the prediction rankings is banking on this. :-p

Arizona will be closer than expected, but still strong Romney.

I think, objectively, it's looking like a very slight Santorum lean....although I'm quite pessimistic for some reason.

Mittens.

My prediction locked in on Romney, so I'll have to vote for him.

Romney, but it will be very close.

Slight Santorum win, but below 40.

W. Mitt Romney

Just made the bet with my roommate. I am now all in for Senator Richard "Rick" Santorum.

My head still says Romney, but my gut says Santorum.  I went with my gut because I think Santorum has the conservative momentum.

I'm not sure if we're seeing a dead cat bounce or momentum, and whether this momentum is enough to outdo Romney's higher commitment levels and early voting lead. I'm going to say Romney +0.5, which really means nearly nothing.

My gut says Mittens wins by a slim margin, not enough to stop Rick from continuing his torrid rise in the polls. He could win by more given his large lead among early voters. I also want to factor that Democrats who are pushing for Rick might not be motivated to actually turn out and vote.

Santorum

Mitt

Yep, same for me.

I like to be pessimistic, since it makes good surprises more likely. ;)

Romney will probably win both states. And he needs to do that to stay in the race.

<40% Romney

Robot.

Santorum

Romney by a hair

Santorum in a close one.

Rick Santorum

Santorum

Santorum at the buzzer.

Romney.  Santorum will win day-of voters by 1-2%.

Romney will squeak out a win.

Confident within 50 basis points are you Ben?  I wish I were as confident within 50 basis points that I will get laid when and where I want to. :)  I don't mind not reaching that standard in predicting election percentages. :P

Idiots.

PPP, seriously f*** you and your polls. And we thought you were a godlike at polling. I thought Santorum was going to win this until the debates, than Romney because it was obvious, but PPP's poll last night made me reconsider that.

Despite polls indicating Santorum might squeak it out, I believed in Mitt Romney, as I always have, and tonight, it paid off. Congratulations, Mitt! :)

Damn, there goes my hypothesis.  39-31 Romney with 92% reporting.  Maybe the southern Arizona performance is more about the fundies than the Hispanics.

I'll note right now that I was the first person to vote for Romney on this poll. *smug grin*

Oh c'mon in their poll he was only up a point or so.  You shouldn't take the numbers too literally.