Talk Elections

...wow...

http://www.pressherald.com/news/Snowe-not-running-for-re-election.html (http://www.pressherald.com/news/Snowe-not-running-for-re-election.html)

Beat me by seconds!

She sticks it to us one last time. Ugh.

D+1!

Very surprising.  I assumed she had nothing to fear, even in a primary.  Hard to see the seat staying Republican now.

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

;D

Oh, of course, R+1.

D+0

OHHH YEAH! I could'nt believe this when I saw that on PoliticalWire... Amazing.

D+1!

The implication being that a Republican will hold the seat or that Snowe is effectively a Democrat?

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:o

Well this certainly changes things. What are the chances Chellie Pingree runs for this now?

Don't count your chickens, Democrats. You act like it's all over... ?

Yay!!!!!!

Too bad.  We may end up in a tied Senate now.

Good riddance. I have more respect for outspoken conservatives than phony moderate heroes.

It's not like the Republicans have many options in terms of candidates.

Patty Murray just put Mike Michaud on speed-dial.

Lol

So who are our possible candidates Pingree, Michaud, Libby Mitchell (God forbid)? Could Elliot Cutler run as a democrat? Who are going to be the republicans?

You would need polls to verify that. It won't be a blowout. It's far from over.

A poll isn't needed to verify that Republicans don't have much of a bench in Maine.

Harold Ford Jr. / Olympia Snowe 2012 on the Americans Elect/Fake Moderate ticket? ???

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What are you talking about? They control the state legislature. Of course they have a bench of electable candidates to run. And Democrats shouldn't be counting their chickens when Maine did after all elect Paul LePage.

With <40% of the vote...

...

It's Maine. The last gubernatorial candidate to win over 50% was an Independent.

Republicans won the state legislature because a bunch of fringe candidates got swept in by the wave in 2010.  Many of them would have zero chance of getting elected statewide in a neutral year.   LePage only won because of the wave and did so with 38%. 

Maine, obviously, is not Massachusetts (not anymore :)) ). However, this does convert a safe R into what I'd think should be a lean D.

Collins is going to be VERY lonely now.

lol Rothenberg putting this at pure tossup. If it had been a Democrat retiring, it would have been Lean or Likely D.

I for one am a bit sad... even if its a gain for the dems. It's good to have a moderating voice in each party... now there's one less in the republican party, which has few to begin with.

Wow. I wish her the best.

This could cancel out Nebraska.

I sure hope Collins doesn't follow suit in 2014...

That wouldn't be good news either, especially since Collins is slightly more conservative than Snowe.

If they pick up Maine, all Democrats would have to do is knock off Brown and hold FL and NM to have 50+ Biden control of the Senate. They could afford to lose VA, MO, WI, ND, NE and NV.

Ouch. This sucks from a good government perspective.

Republican candidates (possible) here include Peter Cianchette (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Cianchette), Attorney General Bill Schneider, and Treasurer Bruce Poliquin.

While I do think the Democrats seriously shouldn't count their chickens before they hatch(bring to mind Massachusetts, then bring to mind how Maine is a swing state compared to it), I'm fairly certain of their chances here. The Republican bench consists almost exclusively of newbies, fringe candidates, and fringe candidate newbies, whereas the Democrats have two U.S. Representatives all to their own. I'm stamping this as Likely D.

Personally, I'd love to see Cutler have another Indy go and win that way. Unlikely as it is, it would be glorious.

A loss for the Senate.

Good riddance. Maybe we'll get a Senator to replace her with any sort of coherent ideology.

Very surprising, though.

Very surprising. I wonder if Dems will be more favored or less favored than they would be if Snowe was teabagged.


Agreed to an extent, the Republicans have so few moderates, and inevitably will control the Senate sometime in the next couple cycles.

They will probably get control for a term after 2014, but I dont see Republicans holding the Senate after 2016.  You think Toomey, Kirk, and Johnson can survive a Presidential year Democratic turnout?  Hell, even Richrard Burr and Roy Blunt will likely have tough races in a non-heavily Republican environment. 

Good riddance to this faux moderate. The Democrats must have wasted their entire 6 months they had a filibuster proof majority writing a health care bill specifically for her vote for and she still voted against it.

Finally. I really tire of hearing about how awesome the "moderate" Maine twins are.

Well, I may be in the minority for saying this, but it's disappointing to see one of the few non-hyperpartisan members of Congress retiring. She served Maine well.

Considering how joined at the hip they seem to be, a Collins retirement would not be surprising in the least. She is getting married, maybe it's time to settle down and do whatever it is rich 60-ish newlyweds do.

No, because Harold Ford is probably packing his bags for Maine.

Good riddance. Let's hope Collins is next.

:)

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+101! I stated many times that after 35 years of studying US politics in details i began to lose interest in that exactly because of hyperpartisanship of last years. What sense it would make to analyze 435 races in which 435 Pelosi-clones will run against 435 Boehner-clones? Absolutely  no sense. And we are close to that already. Snowe was one of my favorite Senators exactly because she was a genuine moderate almost all time (it seems ti me she moved somewhat to the right after 2010 election). Sad. And BOTH parties are to blame for abandoning "big tent" policy of the past. Honestly - i don't know which one - more, and don't like to know that.

The race is somewhere between leans and likely Democratiс right now. The best Democratic candidate (IMHO, of course) would be Michaud, but then Democrats may lose his district in House. Pingree is way too liberal and too shrill for my tastes...

Republicans need very moderate candidate here, and moderates have at least some difficulties in republican primaries as of late (not only in 2010, when tea-party crowd carried LePage over finish line and then he was a biggest "lucky person of the year" by winning over atrocious Democrat and reasonable Independent, who would win if elections would be held 3-4 days later), but in  2006 as well, when they nominated an idiot Woodcock and thus immediately lost a chance to defeat unpopular Baldacci. And they need such candidate QUICK... We shall see whether they will be able to find one. Raye, Otten, Abbot, Summers? All are not that bad, but not especially great either.

Peter Mills seems like the best candidate, but I'm not sure he wants to run again after losing to LePage in 2010's primary.

Chandler Woodcock for Senate!

I thought about him. But he is almost 70 if i remember correctly

:(. Perhaps Steve Abbott then? He is close with Collins, so they would probably work well together if he were elected.

I was sad when I read this yesterday afternoon. She was one of my favorite Senators.

May be. But he ran 4th in 2010 Gubernatorial primary. Obviously not so bad, taking into consideration that LePage was (as i said earlier) "carried by very strong (then, not now) tea-party movement") and Otten, Mills and Abbott were only 2-3% apart... (All 3 were moderates BTW... Moderates and conservatives split vote almost equally, but moderate vote was much more split)). Serious candidate (especially if Democrats nominate Pingree), but we shall see whether he can quickly raise neccessary campaign funds

Hmmm... Peter Cianchette seems like a stronger candidate in that case. He has an edge on is that he has statewide recognition from running for Governor in 2002, and actually did better than Baldacci in Portland, where any Republican running is going to need to do well (especially against Pingree).

I don't remember whether Ciancette is  a moderate (required, if there won't be strong Independent candidate, and may be - even in that case). But if he was able to do well in Portland - probably yes...

Looks like Michaud is in. (https://twitter.com/#!/BDNPolitics/status/174888682128556032) Smart move, getting in front of Pingree.

I wouldn't like Michaud, but whatever.

I don't think it's that Pingree is "too liberal" for Maine, but it's just something about her that rubs people the wrong way. I'd be behind her daughter Hannah if she went for it, though.

Wow, I really didn't expect this. Excellent news. :)

Good.

I'd say its Likely D with Michaud, Slight/Lean D with Pingree.

Politico's headline: The Center Crumbles

I hate pundits.

There's been a lot of whining on DKE about how Michaud is "the right fit for his district, but not for the state as a whole" and how he's "putting his seat in jeopardy" if he runs. Never mind the fact that his district is only a couple points less Democratic than the state. I don't think Maine is the right state to run someone like Pingree, especially since she has the Tom Allen "Portland liberal" label hung around her neck.

Oh, and whoever's running will have to get in right away, because the filing deadline is in two weeks.

Michaud sucks. The right wingers already got Kaine, give us something semi-decent in Maine.

Red Racing Horses is trying to bring Bill Cohen, Collins' predecessor, out of retirement.

Pingree and Baldacci also take out papers for a run.

http://bangordailynews.com/2012/02/29/politics/mike-michaud-enters-senate-race/

Republican state Senator Debra Plowman just filed to run for Michaud's open 2nd district seat; Kevin Raye seems to be most likely Republican candidate.

http://www.pressherald.com/news/Snowe-decision-sets-off-scramble.html

If Raye can consolidate the Republicans (doubtful, but who knows), maybe we can take advantage of a bloody three-way D primary. Would like to see polling, as well.

Does this mean both House seats might be open?

What "center"?

Both House seats are open. Meanwhile, former Governor Angus King (1995-2003) apparently considering running as 'moderate' independent. The Democratic field looks set; Governor Paul lePage apparently wants Peter Cianchette (2002 gubernatorial loser) to be the Republican nominee; Cianchette is considering, but state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin says he's 'likely'. Several other names are 'considering', including state Senate Majority Leader Kevin Raye (currently running in the 2nd), former Susan Collins CoS Steve Abbott (lost gubernatorial primary in 2010), and Secretary of State Charlie Summers, who did unexpectedly well in the 1st district in 2008. Cianchette is probably a more likely consensus candidate than Raye; a damaging three-way Democratic primary between Pingree, Michaud, and Baldacci seems guaranteed, so perhaps Cianchette could benefit from that. Alternatively, Republicans could match Democrats tit-for-tat in the field of damaging primaries. And, of course, King remains very popular.

It would be hilarious if both Michaud and Pingree's seats went for the GOP, and Republicans held the senate seat with someone more right-wing.

I'd love to see whatever it is that Olympia Snowe represents crumble.

While the partisan in me is extremely glad to see Snowe retire, she was a Republican whose first instinct was to modulate rather than throw red meat to the base and on cultural issues she frequently parted company with the party line.  I've read that she felt isolated and unwanted in the Republican caucus and really, who wants to stay where they are not wanted?  I wish her well in her retirement.

And yet she voted with all the other members of the GOP nearly every time. She was only a moderate in style.

She was actually quite moderate compared to everyone else in her caucus. I would even argue that Scott Brown is to the right of Snowe.

I would argue that Snowe's independent streak mostly stopped in the last two years.  The New York Times notes:


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/26/us/politics/republicans-stampede-to-the-right-ahead-of-2012-election.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/26/us/politics/republicans-stampede-to-the-right-ahead-of-2012-election.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all)

She's been catering to the Tea Party of late and her statement suggests that she didn't like it.  It's worth noting that this is not a Ben Nelson style exit where Snowe is quitting because she probably would have been defeated.  She's leaving because she no longer wants to be in the Senate.

All Snowe ever did was vote with the Republicans on three-line whips and literally flip a coin (I have no more coherent ideological explanation) on everything else.

The constant emphasis on ideology is tiring. There is more to politics, at least in the real world.

I have more respect for a bad ideology than to just not have one at all. Hell, wormyguy is giving her too much credit by saying he just decides her votes on coinflip. Some of her votes and pronouncements in the last few years have made absolutely no sense and actively contradict each other. No one with a coherent ideology can do and say some of the things she's done since Obama was elected.

I have little sympathy for her remarks about the evils of partisanship and violence in political rhetoric. That's her party's fault. If she wanted to do something about it, she should've stood up and fought back against it; instead she played right into it. How can I respect that?

So, she is 2012's Evan Bayh. My personal view is that ideology is simply one piece of the puzzle concerning an individual's decision making abilities. Obviously, I am no fan of Snowe (nor Bayh), due to my own ideology, but I don't see having a strict ideology as some sort of prerequisite for elected office. It isn't as if someone's actual ideology shines through in one's votes anyway, and to ask for consistency of a normal politician is absolutely absurd.

For whatever reason Mainers kept reelecting her too. I don't know. I guess the politics of sticking your finger in the air of which ever way the wind is blowing is popular among the electorate there. I personally would have respected her more as an individual if she had as a Senator been more firm and explicit on why she chose to vote the way she did. Instead she just came of as qualifying her political positions all the time. 

Replacing Snowe with Michaud is hardly going to shift that seat any more than an inch to the left.

Snowe's pretty much the Joe Lieberman of the Republican Party, it's safe to say.

IMHO Pingree would be very good for Vermont, not especially good for not so liberal Maine and awful for new Hampshire)))). Something like that))

She almost lost her district in 2008, and again in 2010. It's not as if she's that strong of a candidate to put up.

Not so, if i remember correctly. She beat moderate Republican by 55-45 in very good Democratic year 2008 and then - his conservative primary opponent by 57-43 in 2010. So technically she even improved. But, again, the quality (or the lack of one) of a candidate was a key factor here: it's an idiocy to run a strongly conservative candidate in ME-01 even in such year as 2010... The same as to run "a progressive" Democrat in AL-02 or MS-04

I was about to post this as well. I agree that Michaud would obviously be a stronger candidate from an electoral perspective, but let's not all act like Pingree has held onto her seat by a thread or something. And besides, who exactly do the Republicans have on offer, anyway?

This. I like the idea of the younger generation moving up to take this seat instead -- much easier to keep in the column, and if her quick political ascent in the state legislature is any indication, Hannah is a chip off the old block.

She's pretty crunchy/granola and represents a stereotype of Portland-residents that isn't favorable in the rest of Maine. She also comes off as fairly aloof and elitist. That's my take on it, at least.

Didn't she also have a controversy over a private airplane she owns?

And great for Massachusetts and Rhode Island, alright for Connecticut

Yes! We can mention all states this way. Very good to great for some, bad fo awful - for other..)))

Get your mind out of the gutter.

I think you misinterpreted Holmes, because it is quite sure he wasn't meaning what you interpreted.

No way Republicans win Pingree's seat.  Obama won that seat by 63%-36% and even Kerry won it 56%-43%. 

I question whose mind is in the gutter when you were the one who leapt to the presumption that he was being filthy. ;)

Michaud is out (http://bangordailynews.com/2012/03/01/politics/mike-michaud-out-of-senate-race/), so I guess it'll be Pingree.

The idea of Pingree being "too liberal" for Maine is downright silly. She represents 50% of the state already, has strong name recognition that likely beats out any current Republican challenger.

Maine is a state that in the span of 15 years, has elected Angus King, Susan Collins/Olympia Snowe, Chellie Pingree, John Baldacci, and Paul LePage. Pingree obviously is aware that she needs to run a statewide campaign, and will need to attract independent Maine voters. At best for the GOP, this will be a close race. Worst case scenario for the GOP, Pingree gets a major advantage by riding Obama's coattails and they end up with a candidate with little name recognition.

Well, at least his House seat is Safe.

Surprising.

It/s not so silly as it seems. Mayne is, surely, left-of-center state, but NOT very liberal state. and Pingree is not only very liberal, but  not especially popular among  "non-activist crowd". Both politically and personally. She won with 55% in stellar Democrativc 2008 against resonable Republican, who could beat her if he ran in 2010. Instead, Republican candidate in 2010 was a far-right conservative, who didn't inspired eveyone, but tea-party crowd. The good indidcator of her "popularity" was her Senate campaign against Collins, which she lost rather badly in relatively "neutral" year.

And Obama is also not especially popular right now. He will win Maine, but not by landslide. If Republicans nominate Santorum or Gingrich - another matter.. So ME-01 is, probably, likely Democrtic, but still NOT sure thing... ME-Senate - rather Leans Democratic now, but with everyone, but well-known and very moderate Republican - likely Democratic too (i don't consider Independents right now)... If Pingree will be Democratic candidate, someone like Raye - Republican, AND King will run as Indie - i will bet on King. Anything may happen here

It's funny that you can tell the impact of a retirement on Congress based on whether Krazen starts the thread about it or not.

Very true.

Norm Dicks is hanging it up (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73547.html) after serving since 1977.

This is should somewhat bolster Kaptur's campaign; should she win the primary, she'll be in a position to be the Ranking Democrat on the Appropriations Committee.

Alternatively, it opens up a Dem seat in Washington State for a new representative provided he can sell his house in Cleveland..

Not necessarily Safe D.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/03/02/a_closer_look_at_the_senate_race_in_quirky_maine_113338.html

Wow, I posted this under the wrong thread. lol

I guess I shouldn't post while changing classes...

PPP teases their Maine poll:

I do expect either King or Cutler to jump into the race -- Cutler's indicated he'll cede to King should he enter. Still, I think an independent bid for the seat would be the GOP's best bet -- a 3 way contest then emerges in which the nominee may only need 36% or so, a la Paul LePage.

I was hoping she'd keep running because I can't see many other conservatives winning there. Hopefully, we can find another candidate to replace her. Thank you Olympia Snowe.

Excellent, excellent.

Well, this does suck, but I hated her anyways.

I hope Collins doesnt retire. I love Susan Collins.

Okay, I'm really curious as to how this works. How can you hate one of the Maine Twins but love the other? Not much at all separates them, no?

I just feel like Collins is more authentic in her views, and tries to be a republican while Snowe is more of an opportunist.

Come one Cutler. Run again and ruin the Dems chances of winning another race.

Man I just looked over some of Maine's previous elections. If there's any state that needs a majority requirement for their elections, it's Maine.

Even with a strong independent or Culter running again, a repeat of Governor's race 2010 isn't likely because 1-It's not a GOP wave year and 2-The Dem candidate in 2010 was really really bad and the only reason Cutler did so well was he picked up the tactical votes of Democrats once she collapsed.

I'd estimate Senate Democrats have even odds of holding 50+ seats in the Senate post-2012.  Maybe even slightly better than even.  Prior to this, I thought it was likely they would lose control.

After her birth control mandate vote, good riddance.

Well, i don't see Republicans right now. winning this race with candidates who declared or likely to declare. Their best chances would be 1-1 Pingree-Summers race. But even it would begin as lean Democratic... All other likely Republican candidates would almost assuredly lose either to Pingree in 1-1 race (even though she isn't especially popular) or, say, to King in 3-way race..

I will say just opposite: "Thank you, Senator Snowe, for being true to your principles. Even after announcing retirement.."

What are her principles?

I too am wondering this, unless the Golden Mean Fallacy can be considered a principle.

They were to vote as right-wing as possible to help the national party as one can get away with in the 3rd least religious state until she finally had enough with this birth control vote and decided to quit.

There was an article about Snowe's retirement decision in the NYT.  This quote from a cousin of hers sounded revealing:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/01/us/after-many-tough-choices-the-choice-to-quit.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/01/us/after-many-tough-choices-the-choice-to-quit.html)

I feel bad for Snowe, but if she had actually carved out some coherent thought process or political praxis that was moderate rather than just trying to play balancing acts for her whole career she might not have ended up in this situation.

The Republican party doesn't welcome moderates.

I meant if she had done so from the beginning. If she had a more forceful personality she might be able to just spend her time trolling the rest of the Senate Republican Conference the way Murkowski, who isn't even actually particularly moderate all things considered (or, at least, who didn't used to be), does.

This posts sums up Snowe perfectly, as well as the premise of Moderate Heroism which so many here still hold up as a virtue:

I'm glad I'm not the only one that remembers and loves that quote. A perfect summary of Snowe.

Morderation and compromise. 2 principles i value most of all in politics, which, essentially, is "an art of compromise". And i really dislike (almost tio the level of hate)  boneheaded ideological "purists"

Look at my answer to redcommander))))

Very admirable things, except in this situation it wasn't often that she was compromising constructively so much as, as somebody else pointed out, being willing to vote for pretty much anything as long as it was or seemed to be a cheaper version of something else. I have no doubt that she valued moderation and compromise and practiced them to the best of her ability but she just wasn't forceful enough to be a successful broker most of the time.

You are not opposed to Democrats voting "as left-wing as possible to help national party..." (and so on), don't you? Then why do you condemn her? IMHO - BOTH parties now (and, especially, their activists, who tend to hew to the most extreme politics of their parties) are huge hypocrites right now: they readly allow itself (and justify it) to do things, which they condemn in opposite party. Hence - my deep dislike of BOTH parties as they are now...

haha, I also remembered it.

Cutler isn't running (https://www.facebook.com/notes/eliot-cutler/statement-from-eliot-cutler/10150576413715563) but he's encouraging Angus King.

Why?  What's wrong with being a moderate?

Snowe leaves office with a 69/26 approval rating. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/maine-miscellany.html) This ties Inouye and Barrasso for most popular.

Collins isn't far behind at 60/31.

Well Looks like Democrats will hold the Senate now.

No they're not.

Yes, King will caucus with them.

And Nevada? I'd like to hear your proclamation on that one as well, since you appear to be delivering absolute metaphysical certitude here.

High Mormon turnout for Mittens should help Heller win. And do you expect Democrats to hold on to the senate especially with the lack of crazy Republicans running this year?

Yep. Steelman, Rehberg, Allen, Thompson, Mack, Mandel, Scott Brown... no Sharron Angles there.

I think conjecturing this far out (before we even know who the nominees are in some cases) is pretty much worthless. And the Democrats' potential success or failure certainly doesn't depend solely on how poor the Republican candidates are.

True, but I'm going off the environment today, and if Democrats are at this much of a disadvantage in March, it doesn't look like it will get much better. Who knows, maybe some random economic or political news will actually help Democrats pick up seats, but my bets are on them losing control of the senate.

lol @ anyone claiming the Senate race isn't a tossup.

I'm more interested in his justification for Wisconsin. I don't buy into a Montana loss either.