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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 29, 2012, 02:51:10 pm



Title: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 29, 2012, 02:51:10 pm
Omnibus thread for this year's congressional/statewide primaries.

Check The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G12/) for who's running.

Calendar:

3/6 - Ohio
3/13 - Alabama, Mississippi
3/20 - Illinois
4/3 - Maryland
4/24 - Alabama (runoff), Pennsylvania
5/8 - Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
5/15 - Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon
5/22 - Arkansas, Kentucky
5/29 - Texas
6/5 - California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
6/12 - Arkansas (runoff), Maine, North Dakota, Nevada, South Carolina, Virginia
6/26 - Colorado, New York (tentative), North Carolina (runoff), Oklahoma, South Carolina (runoff), Utah
7/31 - Georgia, Texas (runoff)
8/2 - Tennessee (tentative)
8/7 - Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington
8/11 - Hawaii
8/14 - Connecticut, Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin
8/21 - Georgia (runoff), Wyoming
8/28 - Alaska, Arizona, Oklahoma (runoff), Vermont
9/6 - Massachusetts
9/11 - Delaware (tentative), New Hampshire (tentative), Rhode Island


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 29, 2012, 03:00:51 pm
I approve of this thread.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 29, 2012, 04:57:32 pm
For next Tuesday's Ohio primaries, the races of note are OH-02 (Schmidt has a primary challenger), OH-03 (Dem primary, open seat), and OH-09 (our first of several incumbent-on-incumbent smackdowns, Kaptur vs. Kucinich).


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 06, 2012, 06:55:35 pm
Bumping because Ohio is tonight. AP results here. (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/OH_US_House_0306.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 06, 2012, 09:54:49 pm
Nobody seems to care, but Jean Schmidt looks to be in a bit of trouble; she's ahead 49-41, but her lead appears to only be because of the small rural counties that are mostly in.

Joyce Beatty narrowly leads Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-03, while Kaptur/Kucinich is probably going to be very close.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 06, 2012, 10:04:41 pm
Republican wunderkind Josh Mandel is only getting 62% in his primary, against a bunch of nobodies.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 06, 2012, 10:34:38 pm
Looks like Joyce Beatty will be the next Congresswoman from OH-03, not Mary Jo Kilroy.

Also, I don't think Kucinich has much of a chance at this point.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 06, 2012, 11:16:31 pm
Kucinich is toast, and it looks like Jean Schmidt will narrowly lose as well.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/6 - OH, 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 07, 2012, 05:34:36 am
lol at the first and second district Democratic primaries, too. Oh, and the "plumber" is Kaptur's GE opponent.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 07, 2012, 08:29:00 am
So next week is Alabama and Mississippi. Not much going on, just some challengers to incumbents in AL-01, 05, 06, and MS-02. Parker Griffith, for some inexplicable reason, is running again in AL-05.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: Hash on March 07, 2012, 08:50:58 am
Roy Moore is running for some judicial office in Alabama as well.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 12, 2012, 04:46:25 pm
Bumping for tomorrow's AL/MS primaries. One of the Democrats running for the Senate in Mississippi is named Albert Gore Jr. Just putting that out there.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: jimrtex on March 12, 2012, 06:55:31 pm
Omnibus thread for this year's congressional/statewide primaries.

Check The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G12/) for who's running.

Calendar:

3/6 - Ohio
3/13 - Alabama, Mississippi
3/20 - Illinois
4/3 - Maryland
4/24 - Alabama (runoff), Pennsylvania
5/8 - Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
5/15 - Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon
5/22 - Arkansas, Kentucky
6/5 - California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
6/12 - Arkansas (runoff), Maine, North Dakota, Nevada, South Carolina, Virginia
6/26 - Colorado, New York (tentative), North Carolina (runoff), Oklahoma, South Carolina (runoff), Utah
7/31 - Georgia
8/2 - Tennessee (tentative)
8/7 - Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington
8/11 - Hawaii
8/14 - Connecticut, Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin
8/21 - Georgia (runoff), Wyoming
8/28 - Alaska, Arizona, Oklahoma (runoff), Vermont
9/6 - Massachusetts
9/11 - Delaware (tentative), New Hampshire (tentative), Rhode Island

5/29 Texas
7/31 Texas (runoff)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: Svensson on March 12, 2012, 07:00:09 pm
You know, personally, I'm hoping Alabama puts Bachus on the curb. His opponents might be crazies, certainly, but that's nothing new for Alabama - particularly his district - and probably represents them far better than the Chairman of the House Banking Committee does.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 12, 2012, 07:01:47 pm
Bachus is sleazy, hopefully he gets booted. Also hoping Kinzinger wins next week.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on March 12, 2012, 07:02:44 pm
Who exactly is running against Bachus and has there been any polling from the new AL-06?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: Svensson on March 12, 2012, 07:04:50 pm
Also hoping Kinzinger wins next week.

Also this. Generic Republican though he may be, I prefer new faces like him to old windbags like Manzullo.

Who exactly is running against Bachus and has there been any polling from the new AL-06?

State Rep. Scott Beason and Judge David Standridge - essentially Tea Party and Roy Moore lite. As to polling, I don't believe anyone's touched Alabama yet.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on March 12, 2012, 07:08:49 pm
State Rep. Scott Beason and Judge David Standridge - essentially Tea Party and Roy Moore lite. As to polling, I don't believe anyone's touched Alabama yet.

Oh Alabama. I'll always love have a fraught relationship with you and your people.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 12, 2012, 07:17:43 pm
Neither of Bachus's opponents have raised much money. I wouldn't bank on an upset there, especially since there would be a runoff.

5/29 Texas
7/31 Texas (runoff)

Thanks, added to OP.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 12, 2012, 07:19:05 pm
I wouldn't bank on an upset there

Haha, good one.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: Meeker on March 12, 2012, 07:20:03 pm
That shady anti-incumbent superPAC has spent six-figures against Bachus though.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 13, 2012, 04:28:59 am
You know, personally, I'm hoping Alabama puts Bachus on the curb. His opponents might be crazies, certainly, but that's nothing new for Alabama - particularly his district - and probably represents them far better than the Chairman of the House Banking Committee does.
How? Pretty sure this is the most affluent district in Alabama. (Though I guess Mobile might beat it if its Blacks were excised like Birmingham's?)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 14, 2012, 06:40:05 am
And that was uneventful. No incumbents lost. Albert Gore is the nominee in Mississippi.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/13 - AL/MS, 3/20 - IL)
Post by: We Have A Pope on March 14, 2012, 08:44:29 am
And that was uneventful. No incumbents lost. Albert Gore is the nominee in Mississippi.

I disagree that nothing significant happened on the congressional front.  It is important to note that Bonner and Nunnelee (and to a lesser degree Bachus, since Beason had plenty of problems of his own) won by less than they should have.  As was pointed on DKE, incumbents losing is not the only measure of anti-incumbent sentiment.  It seems clear that many Republicans (and I suspect many Democrats, but their is currently less evidence on that front) are not happy with THEIR congressmen (as opposed to being angry at everyone else's congressmen).  I'm not saying 2012 is going to be some mass anti-incumbent tidal wave.  I'm just saying that this is an important, albeit predictable, development. 


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 17, 2012, 07:27:02 am
Illinois on Tuesday; most notable primaries are in IL-02, 08, 10, 12, 13, and 16.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on March 17, 2012, 01:12:52 pm
Wait...Albert Gore? You don't mean...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 17, 2012, 02:21:19 pm
Wait...Albert Gore? You don't mean...
No we don't. (http://grist.org/election-2012/al-gore-running-for-senate-on-green-platform/)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 20, 2012, 07:36:26 pm
Illinois results. (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/IL_US_House_0320.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

IL-02 is coming in quickly; Jackson, unsurprisingly, is winning this one going away. Early results in IL-10 are a tie between Schneider and Sheyman. Nothing to report elsewhere.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 20, 2012, 07:50:33 pm
Pretty strong lead for Tammy Duckworth in IL-08, albeit with only Cook reporting so far.

Half the precincts in for IL-10; Schenider leads Sheyman 46-40.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Sam Spade on March 20, 2012, 08:05:56 pm
Really don't see how Schneider loses now.  Should tell you not to trust paid polls, as always.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 20, 2012, 08:08:31 pm
Kinzinger/Manzullo looks like it will be comically polarized, unsurprisingly. Kinzinger is getting 79% in LaSalle.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 20, 2012, 09:01:28 pm
Actually, doesn't look too good for Manzullo. He's only leading in three counties, and he'll need a big margin in Winnebago to pull off a win.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Brittain33 on March 20, 2012, 09:16:51 pm
I was trying to remember why Sheyman's name sounded familiar, so I went back to the Ill. congressional jujitsu thread. Krazen seemed to be pulling for him to win.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Svensson on March 20, 2012, 10:20:17 pm
As AP has called it: Kinzinger has bonked Manzullo, 56-44.

To be blunt, I won't miss him very much.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 20, 2012, 10:23:56 pm
Kinzinger has bonked Manzullo

Scandal!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Svensson on March 20, 2012, 10:27:27 pm
Kinzinger has bonked Manzullo

Scandal!

I did not have that particular interpretation in mind when I composed that, no. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Meeker on March 20, 2012, 10:33:46 pm
Tammy Duckworth also easily won the primary to face Joe Walsh.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 20, 2012, 11:46:04 pm
Kinzinger was one of the few Republicans to be more anti-Gaddafi than anti-Obama, so I supported him. Good.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Meeker on March 20, 2012, 11:46:41 pm
Jim Oberweis won the primary for a state senate seat.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 21, 2012, 04:51:24 am
Jim Oberweis won the primary for a state senate seat.

lol


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 21, 2012, 06:59:04 am
Jim Oberweis won the primary for a state senate seat.

Sixth time's the charm.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 3/20 - IL, 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: nclib on March 21, 2012, 06:00:14 pm
I'm surprised Kinzinger won.

Kinzinger was one of the few Republicans to be more anti-Gaddafi than anti-Obama, so I supported him. Good.

Didn't know he was more palatable than Manzullo, but in that case, good.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 01, 2012, 08:30:07 am
So, Maryland. The only real action is in the Democratic primary in MD-06, where wealthy dude John Delaney is looking like he might upset the establishment candidate, State Sen. Rob Garagiola. Delaney has raised over $2 million (although more than half is from his pocket), while Garagiola has only raised about a quarter of that -- Garagiola's finances are so bad that he "decided" not to go on the air in the closing days of the primary. On the other side of the fence, there are a number of Republican challengers to Roscoe Bartlett, but none of them look particularly serious.

Also, Ben Cardin has a challenge from douchebag State Sen. Anthony Muse, but Muse has yet to file any fundraising reports, so I'm assuming Cardin's not worried.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 01, 2012, 09:09:10 am
Somewhat unusual type of Wealthy Dude candidate, though. http://www.delaney2012.com/about-john/ (Also, teenage daughters are endorsed.)

Also: Lol at this

Quote
Newest Attack Doesnt Stretch the Truth, It Breaks It

The attacks coming out of Rob Garagiolas campaign have finally crossed the line from desperate to outright bizarre. According to a new attack out from Garagiola, the fact that John Delaney sold real estate in Washington D.C. to the nation of Bahrain nearly a decade ago makes him responsible for the countrys political unrest, and that Delaneys relationship with the Kingdom of Bahrain should lead to questions over foreign tax shelters, financial holdings, and offshore vehicles to evade taxes. [snip]

Over the last three weeks the attacks out the Garagiola campaign have gotten increasingly outlandish. [snip]
Charge: The truth about [Delaneys] record of financially supporting Republicans likeBob Ehrlich

Fact:  As the Maryland Reporter noted, After the video came out, the Delaney camp fired back with a statement calling out Garagiolas camp for incorrectly accusing Delaney of contributing to former Gov. Bob Ehrlich, a Republican. The contributions were made by other donors named John Delaney. [snip]

Neither candidate looks all that bad or all that great, but I tend to implicitly trust Donna Edwards on Maryland, so... :D


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Meeker on April 01, 2012, 09:32:07 am
Edwards endorsed Delaney because she's pissed about Garagiola's role in redistricting.

Delaney has also released an internal: John Delaney 49, Rob Garagiola 23, Milad Pooran 10

I tend to think that won't be far wrong.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 03, 2012, 08:29:37 pm
Yeah, so Delaney is winning MD-06 easily. Also, Anthony Muse isn't even breaking 20%.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/3 - MD, 4/24 - PA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 04, 2012, 11:50:55 am
Edwards endorsed Delaney because she's pissed about Garagiola's role in redistricting.
See, we have similar instincts.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on April 04, 2012, 10:33:57 pm
As someone who likes the Maryland map and thinks Edwards is being pretty whiny over still having a safe D seat and isn't too fond of some rich guy buying the primary, I'm a little mixed here. But if he can hold the seat, great, we have it, plus that Garagiola attack ad sounds inane beyond words so...

I'm actually rather shocked Bartlett is even running again, he's so old as it is that no one would be surprised if he retired even without the redistricting situation.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 06, 2012, 03:43:31 am
He won his primary with just 43% fwiw.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 14, 2012, 05:20:26 pm
Here's a map of the MD-Sen Republican primary.

(http://i573.photobucket.com/albums/ss175/johnny_longtorso/md-sen2012r.png)

I guess nobody had any idea who the hell they were voting for.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 21, 2012, 08:55:18 am
Pennsylvania next week. There are two Republican primaries of note: for the Senate, that Smith guy seems poised to win, as he's spent nearly $4 million, four times what everyone else has spent combined, and he had an internal poll out showing him winning by double-digits. In the House, there's a Republican primary in PA-04 (formerly PA-19) which is essentially the general election; looks like the two candidates to watch are State Rep. Scott Perry and York County Commissioner Chris Reilly.

On the Democratic side, there's the Altmire/Critz smackdown in PA-12, and Tim Holden faces a tough primary challenge from Matt Cartwright in the newly-Democratic PA-17. Also, the primary for Attorney General has former Rep. Patrick Murphy facing off against Kathleen Kane, a former Lackawanna County ADA.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 21, 2012, 04:57:20 pm
I'm saying Smith, Critz and Cartwright win. No idea about the Platts' seat primary. Leaning towards a Kane quasi-upset in the AG race.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Meeker on April 21, 2012, 08:52:55 pm
Mia Love won the UT-04 GOP nomination tonight; no primary will be held.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Meeker on April 21, 2012, 09:09:51 pm
Chris Stewart won the UT-02 nomination and will win easily in November.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 22, 2012, 09:38:25 pm
Never imagined I'd be saying this (especially after the mild Winter) but it looks like a late April snow - yes, snow - storm could affect turnout in western PA. Some areas will get over a foot of snow. This directly affects the Altmire-Critz race and could dampen Smith's showing in the Senate primary. The snow is beginning Monday morning and lasting until early Tuesday. "Strange" doesn't even begin to describe this...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on April 23, 2012, 02:34:08 pm
Mia Love won the UT-04 GOP nomination tonight; no primary will be held.

A black Mormon? Well I suppose she's young enough to not remember when they taught black skin was the mark of Cain, if she was even alive then (what year did they abandon that belief?)

Although did she convert? If not then that means her parents were Mormons during that time...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on April 23, 2012, 02:40:04 pm
Upon a little research, I see that Gladys Knight also has converted to Mormonism. That equals three black Mormons I know of (the third being that guy in Mali.)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: redcommander on April 23, 2012, 10:47:31 pm
Upon a little research, I see that Gladys Knight also has converted to Mormonism. That equals three black Mormons I know of (the third being that guy in Mali.)

Isn't Sherri Shepard a Mormon?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 24, 2012, 07:53:17 pm
Wow, early results are brutal for Tim Holden. He's losing by nearly 50 points.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 24, 2012, 08:16:59 pm
Wow, early results are brutal for Tim Holden. He's losing by nearly 50 points.

Yes, I saw that.  Altmire seems to be doing well.

I hate Kane, but she's leading the last time I checked.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 24, 2012, 08:27:45 pm
Looks like Scott Perry will be the next representative from PA-04, and Tom Smith will lose to Bob Casey in November. Not looking good for Patrick Murphy for AG.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: redcommander on April 24, 2012, 08:31:47 pm
Republicans really failed at giving Casey a competitive race. Welch is in third.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: redcommander on April 24, 2012, 08:32:31 pm
Murphy also losing his bid to be the Dems nominee for AG.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 24, 2012, 08:33:19 pm
Kane/Murphy will go down to the wire; SE PA is still mostly out.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 24, 2012, 08:35:13 pm
Holden is going down in PA-17.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: redcommander on April 24, 2012, 08:39:55 pm
Holden is going down in PA-17.

Fabulous news.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 24, 2012, 08:42:12 pm
Why are you happy? He's going to be replaced with a more liberal Democrat.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 24, 2012, 08:43:47 pm
Neither the 12th nor the 17th have been called yet. Is everything expecting those to tighten towards the end?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: redcommander on April 24, 2012, 08:45:47 pm
Why are you happy? He's going to be replaced with a more liberal Democrat.

I want most incumbents that are in competitive primaries to get thrown out. It doesn't matter if he will be replaced with someone more left-wing.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 24, 2012, 08:46:48 pm
PA-12 can't really be called until most everything is in, since the district is so polarized. PA-17 has tightened with more Schuylkill votes; it's down to a 56-44 Cartwright lead.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 24, 2012, 08:48:57 pm
Neither the 12th nor the 17th have been called yet. Is everything expecting those to tighten towards the end?

PA-12 is at 36%, with Altmire up 24.

PA-17 is at 49%, with Holden down 24.

Critz can close it, but I think it is over for Holden.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: TeePee4Prez on April 24, 2012, 08:51:10 pm
Neither the 12th nor the 17th have been called yet. Is everything expecting those to tighten towards the end?

PA-12 is at 36%, with Altmire up 24.

PA-17 is at 49%, with Holden down 24.

Critz can close it, but I think it is over for Holden.

I can tolerate Critz/Altmire considering where they are.  As for Holden GOOD RIDDANCE!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 24, 2012, 08:52:53 pm
54% in and Kane is leading for AG.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 24, 2012, 08:56:44 pm
Neither the 12th nor the 17th have been called yet. Is everything expecting those to tighten towards the end?

PA-12 is at 36%, with Altmire up 24.

PA-17 is at 49%, with Holden down 24.

Critz can close it, but I think it is over for Holden.

I can tolerate Critz/Altmire considering where they are.  As for Holden GOOD RIDDANCE!

That might end up as a GOP seat.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 24, 2012, 08:59:15 pm
67% in and Holden is down 14 points.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 24, 2012, 09:02:31 pm
At 59%, Kane is up by 8.  WOW!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 24, 2012, 09:10:45 pm
Schuylkill's out of votes, and all of Northampton and most of Luzerne are still out, so Cartwright wins.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Miles on April 24, 2012, 09:13:24 pm
Critz has almost 52% with 88% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 24, 2012, 09:14:05 pm
Critz just pulled ahead with 88% in in PA-12.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 24, 2012, 09:15:10 pm
Cartwright just declared in PA-17.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 24, 2012, 09:17:08 pm
PA-12 @90% C 51 A 49!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Miles on April 24, 2012, 09:19:01 pm
PA-12 @90% C 51 A 49!

Well, I'm glad whomever loses at least makes a good showing.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 24, 2012, 09:19:02 pm
Twitter reports that Altmire has conceded.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 24, 2012, 09:23:34 pm
Twitter reports that Altmire has conceded.

Critz has opened up to 4 points at 91% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Miles on April 24, 2012, 09:41:21 pm
From DKE:

"...Critz's old portion of PA-12 is only 27% of the voters in the new 12th, but it accounted for 40% of the turnout tonight. That's some pretty amazing home-turf GOTV."


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 24, 2012, 09:56:29 pm
Called for Critz and Kane.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Meeker on April 24, 2012, 10:10:58 pm
Altmire basically did everything in his power to lose that race.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Svensson on April 24, 2012, 10:15:47 pm
Looks like the anti-incumbent bent has spread to the Democrats' field this year. I am quite alright with this.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: nclib on April 24, 2012, 10:40:03 pm
Upon a little research, I see that Gladys Knight also has converted to Mormonism. That equals three black Mormons I know of (the third being that guy in Mali.)

There's also basketball player Thurl Bailey who played at N.C. State (my alma mater) and the Utah Jazz.

Wonder if Love's race will work against her in the general. In any case, she'd also be the first black female Republican in Congress ever.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 24, 2012, 10:42:24 pm
The Kane margin is surprising.

 
Neither the 12th nor the 17th have been called yet. Is everything expecting those to tighten towards the end?

PA-12 is at 36%, with Altmire up 24.

PA-17 is at 49%, with Holden down 24.

Critz can close it, but I think it is over for Holden.

I can tolerate Critz/Altmire considering where they are.  As for Holden GOOD RIDDANCE!

That might end up as a GOP seat.

Uh, no. You don't know about the GOP nominee, I see...

Cartwright's margin is surprising, too. Altmire-Critz was pretty much dead on.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 24, 2012, 10:46:04 pm
The Kane margin is surprising.

 
Neither the 12th nor the 17th have been called yet. Is everything expecting those to tighten towards the end?

PA-12 is at 36%, with Altmire up 24.

PA-17 is at 49%, with Holden down 24.

Critz can close it, but I think it is over for Holden.

I can tolerate Critz/Altmire considering where they are.  As for Holden GOOD RIDDANCE!

That might end up as a GOP seat.

Uh, no. You don't know about the GOP nominee, I see...

Cartwright's margin is surprising, too. Altmire-Critz was pretty much dead on.

Tea Party, I see.  I'm not sure about how bad that will be this year.  PA-12 is also a possibility.

I loathe Kane, but Murphy was probably a stronger candidate in the General


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 24, 2012, 11:28:09 pm
J.J., I'm not just talking about her being a Tea Partier. I'm talking about her...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on April 25, 2012, 12:21:06 am
Isn't it like a 61% Obama district? The only seat comparable to that the GOP holds is that one in Illinois where the guy barely won by about 3 points against a terrible three time loser candidate in 2010 in Obama's home state with his inflated numbers. So a Tea Party candidate even Phil thinks is terrible is clearly not winning districts like that, but this is J. J. we are talking about...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on April 25, 2012, 12:27:38 am
WOW@the geographic polarization. Holden won only two counties, Carbon and Schuylkill. But he got 85.4% in Schuylkill. In Lackawanna he only got 225 and in Luzerne only about 28%.

Schuylkill obviously probably won't vote for Cartwright in the general election, but the Democrats usually don't win it anyway. Better question is if this woman (http://www.electlaureencummings.com/about-laureen.html) is going to appeal to Scranton.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: J. J. on April 25, 2012, 12:59:36 am
WOW@the geographic polarization. Holden won only two counties, Carbon and Schuylkill. But he got 85.4% in Schuylkill. In Lackawanna he only got 225 and in Luzerne only about 28%.

Schuylkill obviously probably won't vote for Cartwright in the general election, but the Democrats usually don't win it anyway. Better question is if this woman (http://www.electlaureencummings.com/about-laureen.html) is going to appeal to Scranton.

I don't know; something strange is happening.  Kane defeated the favorite, Murphy.  The "establishment" GOP candidate went down to Smith.  Is it still R +6?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: bore on April 25, 2012, 03:46:10 am
WOW@the geographic polarization. Holden won only two counties, Carbon and Schuylkill. But he got 85.4% in Schuylkill. In Lackawanna he only got 225 and in Luzerne only about 28%.

Schuylkill obviously probably won't vote for Cartwright in the general election, but the Democrats usually don't win it anyway. Better question is if this woman (http://www.electlaureencummings.com/about-laureen.html) is going to appeal to Scranton.

I don't know; something strange is happening.  Kane defeated the favorite, Murphy.  The "establishment" GOP candidate went down to Smith.  Is it still R +6?
The new PA-17 is Obama 57-42


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 25, 2012, 06:51:38 am
Murphy wasn't exactly a favorite; Kane spent a ton of money and got Bill Clinton's endorsement.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: krazen1211 on April 25, 2012, 08:25:43 am
Critz just pulled ahead with 88% in in PA-12.

R+1.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on April 25, 2012, 08:52:31 am
WOW@the geographic polarization. Holden won only two counties, Carbon and Schuylkill. But he got 85.4% in Schuylkill. In Lackawanna he only got 225 and in Luzerne only about 28%.

Schuylkill obviously probably won't vote for Cartwright in the general election, but the Democrats usually don't win it anyway. Better question is if this woman (http://www.electlaureencummings.com/about-laureen.html) is going to appeal to Scranton.

I don't know; something strange is happening.  Kane defeated the favorite, Murphy.  The "establishment" GOP candidate went down to Smith.  Is it still R +6?
The new PA-17 is Obama 57-42

Here's proof J. J. is trolling by deliberately being dense. Everyone who followed this in the slightest knows that the new PA-17 picked up Scranton and is far more Dem and thus pretty far from R+6, basically the inverse in fact.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 25, 2012, 04:21:12 pm
Lugar's getting increasingly desperate, throwing all sorts of mud at Mourdock in hopes that some will stick. Internal polling can't be pretty. At this rate I expect Mourdock to win by a narrow (3-4 at best) margin.


Any NC House primaries to watch for?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Miles on April 25, 2012, 04:33:35 pm

Any NC House primaries to watch for?


As far as incumbents, not really. Jones has a more conservative challenger, but I doubt anything happens.

I also can't wait to see who wins the NC-09 GOP primary...and becomes my next Congressman :P


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 25, 2012, 06:13:13 pm
Lugar's getting increasingly desperate, throwing all sorts of mud at Mourdock in hopes that some will stick. Internal polling can't be pretty. At this rate I expect Mourdock to win by a narrow (3-4 at best) margin.


Any NC House primaries to watch for?

Lugar's desperate? You should see the campaign Mourdock is running here.

Lugar is currently running a terrific ad, that'll likely put him over the top:
http://youtu.be/mbmfpA6M8YQ

Basically, it's Daniels promoting Lugar. This'll greatly influence the voters who are either undecided or have no clue who to vote for, as Daniel's endorsement carries some heavy weight around here.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Brittain33 on April 26, 2012, 08:34:56 am
The NY Times headline is "2 House Democrats Defeated After Opposing Health Law"

That's pretty bogus, isn't it? Critz campaigned against health care reform in his special election and won in a turf battle; Holden was too conservative for a Dem pack district where 80% of voters were new and would have lost if HCR had never happened.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Torie on April 26, 2012, 09:52:38 am
The NY Times headline is "2 House Democrats Defeated After Opposing Health Law"

That's pretty bogus, isn't it? Critz campaigned against health care reform in his special election and won in a turf battle; Holden was too conservative for a Dem pack district where 80% of voters were new and would have lost if HCR had never happened.

Correct, but labor was able to punish Altmire for being a moderate in general, or whatever, by goosing up the turnout in Cambria and Somerset Counties.  Apparently the turnout was considerably lighter in the Altmire areas.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 05, 2012, 05:35:09 pm
What's going on Tuesday? Nothing in West Virginia, but in Indiana Dick Lugar looks to be on his way out. There are also de facto general elections on the Republican side in the open IN-05 and IN-06. There's a former Congressman running in IN-05, David McIntosh.

In North Carolina, Republicans have primaries in NC-07, 08, 09, 11, and 13. Democrats have a gubernatorial primary.

Oh, also there's the primary for the Wisconsin recall.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 4/24 - PA)
Post by: Torie on May 05, 2012, 06:26:57 pm
WOW@the geographic polarization. Holden won only two counties, Carbon and Schuylkill. But he got 85.4% in Schuylkill. In Lackawanna he only got 225 and in Luzerne only about 28%.

Schuylkill obviously probably won't vote for Cartwright in the general election, but the Democrats usually don't win it anyway. Better question is if this woman (http://www.electlaureencummings.com/about-laureen.html) is going to appeal to Scranton.

I don't know; something strange is happening.  Kane defeated the favorite, Murphy.  The "establishment" GOP candidate went down to Smith.  Is it still R +6?
The new PA-17 is Obama 57-42

Here's proof J. J. is trolling by deliberately being dense. Everyone who followed this in the slightest knows that the new PA-17 picked up Scranton and is far more Dem and thus pretty far from R+6, basically the inverse in fact.

D +4% to be precise. The seat won't be in play, unless we get a 2010 redux perhaps (which we won't be most probably), but even then probably not given the Pub candidate. But BRTD, not everyone has been following the redistricting game as assiduously as we have been. :)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 06, 2012, 08:06:16 am
Even in a 2010 environment, PA 17 will not be in play. End.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: We Have A Pope on May 06, 2012, 09:55:36 am
What's going on Tuesday? Nothing in West Virginia, but in Indiana Dick Lugar looks to be on his way out. There are also de facto general elections on the Republican side in the open IN-05 and IN-06. There's a former Congressman running in IN-05, David McIntosh.

In North Carolina, Republicans have primaries in NC-07, 08, 09, 11, and 13. Democrats have a gubernatorial primary.

Oh, also there's the primary for the Wisconsin recall.


There's also the Republican primary in IN-8.  Bucschon will probably win, but I suspect it will be at least somewhat close, and he could lose (which would increase the chances of Crooks winning).  At least that's the sense I've gotten, although I could be completely off.  There's the Democratic primary in IN-9, but I am not sure that it matters much who wins there.  Interestingly, Capito actually seems to have a non-some dude primary opponent (a state delegate, in fact), although she'll probably still win by quite a bit.  There is also the Republican primary in NC-3, Jones should win, but from what I understand his opponent has been getting a lot of help from Campaign for Primary Accountability (among others).  Lastly, there are a bunch of other primaries for both parties (mainly Republicans though) for various North Carolina statewide offices. 


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: #IAintAfraidOfNoGoats on May 06, 2012, 03:13:17 pm
Bushon's opponent (whom both Tmfth and I support) has a good chance of winning. IN-2 will be coming home to the Tea Party in November with Walorski. McIntosh is favored in the 5th though he'll have a challenge fron his right in Chard Reid (Libertarian).


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 07, 2012, 07:59:17 pm
Precinct maps of the PA-12 and PA-17 Dem primaries: (http://www.hamiltoncampaigns.com/data-targeting/70)

(http://www.hamiltoncampaigns.com/images/stories/pa12.png)

(http://www.hamiltoncampaigns.com/images/stories/pa17.png)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Torie on May 07, 2012, 09:59:36 pm
I was yearning for those maps Johnny.  Thanks!  You know, that geographic divide of near perfect proportions as one color fades into another and goes deep of hue, is quite remarkable for the Critz/Altmire race, where ideology was merely at the confused margins. Sure there was a geographic divide in the Holden/Cartwright race, and some of it was about geography, but there ideology no doubt played a substantial role as well.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on May 07, 2012, 10:22:27 pm
Both Altmire and Critz are on the right wing of the Dmeocratic party, so I don't see ideology as a factor there. Obviously was in PA-17.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 08, 2012, 04:58:26 pm
Politico has the WI-Gov and IN-Sen primaries here.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Senate/2012/Primary/IN

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Governor/2012/Primary/WI


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Miles on May 08, 2012, 05:16:27 pm
Politico is saying Mourdock is up 51/49 with 0% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Meeker on May 08, 2012, 05:27:50 pm
Bucshon is beating his poorly-funded Tea Party opponent by only 63-37 with 2% in

The good news for him is that he's leading throughout the district


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 08, 2012, 05:33:20 pm
AP results are here. (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/IN_US_Senate_0508.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS) Mourdock up 56-44 with a handful of precincts in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 08, 2012, 05:34:55 pm
What the hell? It's 6:30. Did polls close at 6 or something? I've never heard of polls closing this early.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Meeker on May 08, 2012, 05:38:54 pm
Yeah, they close at 6 local time. Same in Kentucky.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: #IAintAfraidOfNoGoats on May 08, 2012, 05:40:26 pm
What the hell? It's 6:30. Did polls close at 6 or something? I've never heard of polls closing this early.

Indiana closes at 6
Politico is saying Mourdock is up 51/49 with 0% in.

Messer up in IN-6


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 08, 2012, 05:42:20 pm
Yeah, they close at 6 local time. Same in Kentucky.

I thought they closed at 7. Weird.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Meeker on May 08, 2012, 05:44:35 pm
^^^ well the whole state doesn't close until 7 because of the portion in CST; maybe that's what you were thinking of.

Presidential primary at 65 Romney, 14 Santorum, 12 Paul, 8 Gingrich fwiw


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: #IAintAfraidOfNoGoats on May 08, 2012, 05:46:25 pm
Update on IN-Sen
Mourdock (Tea Party) 57%
Lugar (Mod) 43%


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: rob in cal on May 08, 2012, 05:48:02 pm
Anyone have any feelings about how well Lugar will do in Indianapolis region.  I'm guessing he'll win that area, and if thats the case how much of a cushion does Mourdoch need in the rest of the state?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Nhoj on May 08, 2012, 05:49:58 pm
^^^ well the whole state doesn't close until 7 because of the portion in CST; maybe that's what you were thinking of.

Presidential primary at 65 Romney, 14 Santorum, 12 Paul, 8 Gingrich fwiw
Paul is tied with romney in marion county[ indy] of course its probably 4 people total.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: #IAintAfraidOfNoGoats on May 08, 2012, 05:58:02 pm
Lugar down 19With 3% reporting


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: rob in cal on May 08, 2012, 06:02:42 pm
I remember seeing Lugar on the Capitol steps in July of 1991.  I got a photo of him and he looked surprised that some young college aged kid was interested in him I suppose.  I also got a photo of the back of General Schwarzkopf's head on that memorable visit to DC. (he was testifying before a congressional committee.).  Lugar has had an amazing run, he was mayor of Indianapolis before most of us on this board were born.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 08, 2012, 06:04:19 pm
Anyone have any feelings about how well Lugar will do in Indianapolis region.  I'm guessing he'll win that area, and if thats the case how much of a cushion does Mourdoch need in the rest of the state?

It's not looking like Lugar is going to win anywhere but Indianapolis.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Miles on May 08, 2012, 06:07:00 pm
Mourdock just crossed 60%...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Trumpism: Turn the dial all the way up and pull off the knob on May 08, 2012, 06:10:16 pm
I'm pulling for Lugar so that awfull Orrin Hatch never becomes President Pro Tempore.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 08, 2012, 06:11:44 pm
To think this was entirely avoidable...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Meeker on May 08, 2012, 06:13:46 pm
Stick a fork in Lugar; he's even losing Marion County now.

Polls close in N.C. in 15 minutes.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 08, 2012, 06:19:28 pm
Wow, this is just sad.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: #IAintAfraidOfNoGoats on May 08, 2012, 06:21:19 pm
No. It's time. And yes on Amendment One for bonus


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Miles on May 08, 2012, 06:26:19 pm
The Huffington Post says NBC has called it for Mourdock.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 08, 2012, 06:26:26 pm
Dem +1 :)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 08, 2012, 06:28:19 pm
Someone call SVU...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: morgieb on May 08, 2012, 06:29:34 pm
Democrat +1?

Bye Lugar.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Meeker on May 08, 2012, 06:31:05 pm
This seat will be competitive but it's certainly not even Lean Dem at this point.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Paul Kemp on May 08, 2012, 06:32:43 pm
Lugar is a great senator and was one of the last good guys left in the GOP. This is truly a shame.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on May 08, 2012, 06:32:43 pm
I saw Kathleen Falk on the sidewalk today on my lunch break a couple of blocks from my office. She was surrounded by a gaggle of people standing around with signs with her name on it; I suppose the idea was that members of the public went up to talk to her in person. But I didn't; it just would have been incredibly awkward for both of us. Then a mere half hour later when I emerged from Chipotle Mexican Grill in the other direction, the entire operation had been completely uprooted and they were on to the next.

Actually being a politician must be so weird.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: #IAintAfraidOfNoGoats on May 08, 2012, 06:36:32 pm
I agree Lugar is a good guy but we want a conservative in that seat.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 08, 2012, 06:38:18 pm
This seat will be competitive but it's certainly not even Lean Dem at this point.

I don't even think it will be competitive. I think this will be one of those races where we look back in November and say, "Remember when this was going to be close? LOL!"


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Svensson on May 08, 2012, 06:39:24 pm
Well, then. Here's to cautiously hoping Mourdock makes at least some semi-decent votes.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: President Hillary Clinton on May 08, 2012, 06:40:18 pm
I'll never understand people feeling sorry for elderly congresscritters who are finally forced to move on after 30+ year careers.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Miles on May 08, 2012, 06:43:03 pm
Romney is right at 65% in NC.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: greenforest32 on May 08, 2012, 06:44:15 pm
Is Lugar going to be able to run as a write-in or independent candidate similar to Alaska's Senate race in 2010?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Miles on May 08, 2012, 06:45:52 pm
Is Lugar going to be able to run as a write-in or independent candidate similar to Alaska's Senate race in 2010?

If I recall, he said he isn't accepting write-in votes.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 08, 2012, 06:47:31 pm
No, Indiana has a sore loser law so he can't pull a Murky/Lieberman. Nor does he want to.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Meeker on May 08, 2012, 06:50:31 pm
Amendment 1 is going to pass by a lot; "No" only got 57% in the early vote in Mecklenburg.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Meeker on May 08, 2012, 06:53:32 pm
AP calls it for Mourdock


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Svensson on May 08, 2012, 07:14:22 pm
Now, to think ahead: am I the only one really hoping this second round of anti-incumbency stealth-strikes Hatch next? :D


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Meeker on May 08, 2012, 07:18:02 pm
Former State Rep. Luke Messer wins IN-06 and will win easily in November.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: retromike22 on May 08, 2012, 07:18:33 pm
Does anyone know where I can find results of the NC gay marriage law?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 08, 2012, 07:19:32 pm
Now, to think ahead: am I the only one really hoping this second round of anti-incumbency stealth-strikes Hatch next? :D

Hatch defeated Liljenquist in Liljenquist's own precinct at the convention, so no. Anyone who thinks Orrin Hatch a squish is off their rocker.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Meeker on May 08, 2012, 07:20:31 pm
Does anyone know where I can find results of the NC gay marriage law?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/NC_Amendment_0508.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Miles on May 08, 2012, 07:26:24 pm
Renee Ellmers is only at 53% in a four-way contest. This is actually bordering on an open-seat contest though; the new CD2 only has 25% of the old one.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Hash on May 08, 2012, 07:28:21 pm
Bigotry wins again in NC? Ugh.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Miles on May 08, 2012, 07:29:57 pm
According to PPP, the only counties that have so far voted no on Amendment 1 are: Buncombe, Chatham, Durham, Forsyth, Guilford, Mecklenburg, Orange, Wake and Watauga.

Not very surprising.

Amendment 1 is failing the worst in Orange; it only got 21% there.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: #IAintAfraidOfNoGoats on May 08, 2012, 07:33:20 pm
Bigotry wins again in NC? Ugh.

No, virtue won if this law would've lost bigotry wouldve won.

Jackie Walorski wins IN-2 GOP primary and will likely also win in November.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Miles on May 08, 2012, 07:34:13 pm
Here's Amendment 1 by county. (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/36596/80053/en/md.html?cid=425000010)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Miles on May 08, 2012, 07:35:42 pm
Bigotry wins again in NC? Ugh.

No, virtue won if this law would've lost bigotry wouldve won.


(http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s316/firezxephyrxs89/Random/Political-picture-robert-byrd-shut-.jpg)

Of course, I mean that in the friendliest way....


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Meeker on May 08, 2012, 07:39:06 pm
Democratic primary for NC Governor is close; looks like Dalton and Etheridge will finish above or close to 40% though so it probably won't go to a runoff.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Nhoj on May 08, 2012, 07:42:35 pm
apparently there is a libertarian primary in NC and no preference is winning easily, gary johnson in second all others far behind. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Svensson on May 08, 2012, 07:42:58 pm
Now, to think ahead: am I the only one really hoping this second round of anti-incumbency stealth-strikes Hatch next? :D

Hatch defeated Liljenquist in Liljenquist's own precinct at the convention, so no. Anyone who thinks Orrin Hatch a squish is off their rocker.

I did say "hoping". :P


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 08, 2012, 07:43:47 pm
IN-05 is really close; David McIntosh is about 140 votes ahead of Susan Brooks.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Meeker on May 08, 2012, 07:47:31 pm
Obama winning WV primary 65-35 over someone named Keith Judd... losing several counties... sigh...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on May 08, 2012, 07:49:04 pm
Rouzer is currently ahead by 300 votes in NC-07, he has 83% in Johnston and is tied in Sampson, but is loosing everything else by 2-1 or more.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on May 08, 2012, 07:50:07 pm
Keith Judd is a guy serving a sentence in a federal prison in Texas who periodically gets on random ballots.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Nhoj on May 08, 2012, 08:00:44 pm
the NC board of elections site gets you precinct level results maps :D
Also Polls just closed here in Wisconsin


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 08, 2012, 08:03:32 pm
Dalton has extended his lead to 45-38.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Miles on May 08, 2012, 08:07:02 pm
Rouzer is currently ahead by 300 votes in NC-07, he has 83% in Johnston and is tied in Sampson, but is loosing everything else by 2-1 or more.

We always knew this would be a good race to watch.

That would be funny if he wins with just Johnston and Sampson.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Nhoj on May 08, 2012, 08:27:04 pm
Comparing obamas numbers in the far south counties hes losing in wv to tomblins numbers in that same area is pretty funny.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: #IAintAfraidOfNoGoats on May 08, 2012, 08:28:04 pm
Bigotry wins again in NC? Ugh.

No, virtue won if this law would've lost bigotry wouldve won.


(http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s316/firezxephyrxs89/Random/Political-picture-robert-byrd-shut-.jpg)

Of course, I mean that in the friendliest way....

Nope. Tonite Victory is mine


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: shua on May 08, 2012, 08:37:59 pm
Now, to think ahead: am I the only one really hoping this second round of anti-incumbency stealth-strikes Hatch next? :D
Unlike Murdock for Lugar, Liljenquist for Hatch is a trade I would welcome. Unfortunately, the chances are pretty slim.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: nclib on May 08, 2012, 08:40:37 pm
Disappointing (but not surprising) that amendment one will pass in NC.

As for Lugar, did he win any counties?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: tpfkaw on May 08, 2012, 08:42:22 pm
Now, to think ahead: am I the only one really hoping this second round of anti-incumbency stealth-strikes Hatch next? :D
Unlike Murdock for Lugar, Liljenquist for Hatch is a trade I would welcome. Unfortunately, the chances are pretty slim.

Why don't you like Lugar losing?  Guy's a creep and wants to be in office for 42 years.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 08, 2012, 08:47:55 pm
Barrett is beating Falk by double-digits in Dane County. Wow, that's gotta hurt.

Disappointing (but not surprising) that amendment one will pass in NC.

As for Lugar, did he win any counties?

Boone and Marion; he's winning Hamilton with about 1/5th in and is a few votes ahead in Tippecanoe with about 4/5ths in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 08, 2012, 08:49:50 pm
Now, to think ahead: am I the only one really hoping this second round of anti-incumbency stealth-strikes Hatch next? :D
Unlike Murdock for Lugar, Liljenquist for Hatch is a trade I would welcome. Unfortunately, the chances are pretty slim.

Why don't you like Lugar losing?  Guy's a creep and wants to be in office for 42 years.
Please tell me, how is Richard Lugar a "creep"? You apparently don't know too much about him, or don't know what a "creep" actually is.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: tpfkaw on May 08, 2012, 08:55:44 pm
Now, to think ahead: am I the only one really hoping this second round of anti-incumbency stealth-strikes Hatch next? :D
Unlike Murdock for Lugar, Liljenquist for Hatch is a trade I would welcome. Unfortunately, the chances are pretty slim.

Why don't you like Lugar losing?  Guy's a creep and wants to be in office for 42 years.
Please tell me, how is Richard Lugar a "creep"? You apparently don't know too much about him, or don't know what a "creep" actually is.

Anyone who wants to be a politician for 54+ years is by definition a creep, especially if they've devoted their entire political career to their desire to have the government control every aspect of everyone's lives.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on May 08, 2012, 08:56:42 pm
Barrett is beating Falk by double-digits in Dane County. Wow, that's gotta hurt.


Nothing in from Madison yet - but still, yeah.

Edit: actually, now that a few wards come in she's getting beaten pretty badly in the city too.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 08, 2012, 09:08:36 pm
It's nice to see that there will likely be 2 females in the Indiana delegation starting next year, possibly three if Yoder can beat Young.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: #IAintAfraidOfNoGoats on May 08, 2012, 09:16:08 pm
Hopefully McIntosh still pulls it out but Walorski is kewl


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: shua on May 08, 2012, 09:41:09 pm
Now, to think ahead: am I the only one really hoping this second round of anti-incumbency stealth-strikes Hatch next? :D
Unlike Murdock for Lugar, Liljenquist for Hatch is a trade I would welcome. Unfortunately, the chances are pretty slim.

Why don't you like Lugar losing?  Guy's a creep and wants to be in office for 42 years.

I find Lugar to be much better on foreign policy than Murdock and the great majority of Republicans in Congress, and has an impressive record in that area.  Also, I like his nonreactionary approach to immigration and other issues.

On the other hand, I can appreciate the view that he's just spent too long in office. 


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Miles on May 08, 2012, 09:43:31 pm
Rouzer is currently ahead by 300 votes in NC-07, he has 83% in Johnston and is tied in Sampson, but is loosing everything else by 2-1 or more.

We always knew this would be a good race to watch.

That would be funny if he wins with just Johnston and Sampson.

Here's what Rouzer-Pantano looks like so far:

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/NC07GOP1.png)

Rouzer is leading with 37% in Hoke.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 08, 2012, 09:43:56 pm
Hopefully McIntosh still pulls it out but Walorski is kewl
I supported Brooks, but either I'd be okay with.

In other news, Buchson's opponent in the 8th, Crooks, did horrible in the primary. Granted, he didn't run much of a campaign, but he lost several counties and did mediocre in others to two candidates, one who lives in New York and the other who didn't have one campaign appearance. Buchson's not my favorite, I didn't support him, but he'll likely retain his seat. I don't really think there will be a close House race in Indiana. A couple moderately interesting, but none within 5 points.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: tpfkaw on May 08, 2012, 09:50:38 pm
Now, to think ahead: am I the only one really hoping this second round of anti-incumbency stealth-strikes Hatch next? :D
Unlike Murdock for Lugar, Liljenquist for Hatch is a trade I would welcome. Unfortunately, the chances are pretty slim.

Why don't you like Lugar losing?  Guy's a creep and wants to be in office for 42 years.

I find Lugar to be much better on foreign policy than Murdock and the great majority of Republicans in Congress, and has an impressive record in that area.  Also, I like his nonreactionary approach to immigration and other issues.

On the other hand, I can appreciate the view that he's just spent too long in office. 

Dude was a neocon before being a neocon was cool, and has supported every single foreign intervention since the beginning of his tenure.  There is absolutely nothing redeeming about his foreign policy record except being a moderate hero for 1 day(!) on Iraq in 2007 before issuing a press release "explaining" himself.  He's also one of the most consistent enemies of civil liberties in congress, including the one issue Republicans are generally good on, gun rights.  Frankly, I don't care if Mourdock is good or bad.  It's not like he could possibly be noticeably worse, and it's easier to get rid of a recently-elected incumbent than a long-term one.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on May 08, 2012, 10:45:55 pm
Rouzer is currently ahead by 300 votes in NC-07, he has 83% in Johnston and is tied in Sampson, but is loosing everything else by 2-1 or more.

We always knew this would be a good race to watch.

That would be funny if he wins with just Johnston and Sampson.

Here's what Rouzer-Pantano looks like so far:

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/NC07GOP1.png)

Rouzer is leading with 37% in Hoke.

Rouzer appears to have won by 3% 48%-45%

Johnston is Boss:
Johnston 41/41
Pantano 12%
Rouzer 82%
Crow 7%


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/8 - IN, NC, WV; 5/15 ID, NE, OR)
Post by: Miles on May 08, 2012, 10:52:56 pm
Rouzer is currently ahead by 300 votes in NC-07, he has 83% in Johnston and is tied in Sampson, but is loosing everything else by 2-1 or more.

We always knew this would be a good race to watch.

That would be funny if he wins with just Johnston and Sampson.

Here's what Rouzer-Pantano looks like so far:

(http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/NC07GOP1.png)

Rouzer is leading with 37% in Hoke.

Rouzer appears to have won by 3% 48%-45%

Johnston is Boss:
Johnston 41/41
Pantano 12%
Rouzer 82%
Crow 7%

Yeah. Kudos to Rouzer.

The problem for Rouzer though is that he'll be pretty unknown in the rest of the district, territory that McIntyre has represented for 16 years. McIntyre was already going to perform poorly in Johnston because of the counties strong GOP lean. It will be a good race to watch.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: rob in cal on May 09, 2012, 10:51:23 am
Anyone seen a breakdown by race for support on Amendment one?  My guess is that white and black voters were probably close to equal in support levels.  Somehow I'm thinking this is not what liberal politicians envision when they think of whites and blacks coming together on issues.
   


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 09, 2012, 09:25:57 pm
Palin endorsed Deb Fischer in the Nebraska Republican Senate primary. McCain and the TPE endorsed Tom Cotton in the AR-4 GOP primary.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 12, 2012, 05:52:50 pm
Yeah, so, not much going on next week. The only thing of note, really, is the Republican primary for NE-Sen, but that appears to be a fairly dull affair with Jon Bruning comfortably ahead of the other two.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 12, 2012, 06:04:18 pm
Murphy trounced Bysiewicz 3-1 at the CT Democratic convention today, but of course they're still going to the August primary.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 14, 2012, 09:59:11 pm
Tom Cotton leads Beth Anne Rankin 51-33 in a new Talk Business poll. The 4th's next congressman whether he wins outright next week or in the June runoff.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 15, 2012, 04:30:11 pm
Okay, so maybe I spoke too soon in regards to NE-Sen. Fischer is ahead in two primary polls (caveats: taken over Mother's Day weekend, and Nebraska apparently has early voting).


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 15, 2012, 04:32:03 pm
Bruning probably wins by earlies/absentees, but it'll be close. MI close rather than OH close is my tentative guess.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 15, 2012, 08:35:50 pm
Nebraska results (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/NE_US_Senate_0515.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS). Currently 40-35 for Bruning. Interestingly, Fischer is winning Douglas County (Omaha). Bruning is winning most other places, though.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: Svensson on May 15, 2012, 08:37:01 pm
Have we any results yet?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: IBDD on May 15, 2012, 08:57:16 pm
Nebraska result 22% in
Bruning 41%
Fisher 32%
Stenberg 22%


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 15, 2012, 09:25:31 pm
Bruning is only ahead by 1,300 votes now. The rural counties are coming in strong for Fischer.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: IBDD on May 15, 2012, 09:26:14 pm
Nebraska sen rep primary 41% in
Bruning- 38.4%
Fischer- 36.7%
Stenberg- 20.5%


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 15, 2012, 09:28:20 pm
Will Bruning's urban margins, plus absentee/earlies, be enough to pull him through like with Romney in MI/OH?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 15, 2012, 09:30:20 pm
600 vote margin now.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 15, 2012, 09:32:36 pm
Fischer pulled ahead. Fick the Alaska retard if Bruning loses.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: nclib on May 15, 2012, 09:43:27 pm
Nebraska results (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/NE_US_Senate_0515.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS). Currently 40-35 for Bruning. Interestingly, Fischer is winning Douglas County (Omaha). Bruning is winning most other places, though.

Now Fischer is winning, but Bruning is carrying Douglas.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: rbt48 on May 15, 2012, 09:45:33 pm
Unless there are lots of absentee votes hiding out there, I think Fischer has this wrapped up.  Douglas Co (Omaha) is mostly in and Bruning only is carrying it by 9%.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: IBDD on May 15, 2012, 09:46:34 pm
Nebraska sen Rep Primary- 58.8% in
Fischer-  38.8%
Bruning- 37.0%
Stenberg- 19.6%


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: Svensson on May 15, 2012, 09:46:47 pm
Fischer pulled ahead. Fick the Alaska retard if Bruning loses.

Fischer is still all but certain to win the GE, bro.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: IBDD on May 15, 2012, 09:51:03 pm
yup agreed


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 15, 2012, 09:51:26 pm
Fischer pulled ahead. Fick the Alaska retard if Bruning loses.

Fischer is still all but certain to win the GE, bro.

I know. I'm mad at Palin, not Fischer- who was my second choice. Certainly not the 3-time Senate loser Don Stenberg.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: Svensson on May 15, 2012, 09:55:02 pm
Fischer pulled ahead. Fick the Alaska retard if Bruning loses.

Fischer is still all but certain to win the GE, bro.

I know. I'm mad at Palin, not Fischer- who was my second choice. Certainly not the 3-time Senate loser Don Stenberg.

I can sympathize. To this day, I still have no idea why Palin has the pull she does over female Republicans. The woman is an absolute div.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 15, 2012, 09:57:46 pm
She's pulling away now, 40-36. Congrats to Nebraska's next Senator.

I'll be in a much better mood next week. :)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: Svensson on May 15, 2012, 10:01:19 pm
Well, at least Fischer is going to be a safer candidate going into the GE than Stenberg ever would have been.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: rbt48 on May 15, 2012, 10:18:06 pm
Yes, it is true, Fischer will be a better candidate than Stenberg would have been.  I think she can and should beat Kerrey.  She is not a Sharon Angle nor a Christine O'Donnell; not sure why Palin endorsed her. 

AP just called the race for Fischer, BTW.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: IBDD on May 15, 2012, 10:20:11 pm
Nebraska sen Rep Primary- 78.5 percent in
Politico has called the Republican primary for Deb Fisher
Fisher- 40.3%
Bruning- 36.0%
Stenberg- 19.3%


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/15 - ID, NE, OR; 5/22 - AR, KY)
Post by: Jbrase on May 16, 2012, 02:20:54 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/3985_16_05_12_2_20_15.png)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 19, 2012, 07:59:03 pm
Linda McMahon trounced Chris Shays 61-32 at the GOP convention, but he still gets a primary slot.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 20, 2012, 06:47:26 am
Next Tuesday's primaries of note are on the Republican side in AR-04 and KY-04. That's about it.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: Deputy GM R2D2 on May 20, 2012, 11:14:50 am
The Texas Senate primary should be fun to watch.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 20, 2012, 12:14:25 pm
The Texas Senate primary should be fun to watch.

Yep. Dewhurst will lead in Round 1. Not so much in Round 2. :)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 21, 2012, 01:23:42 pm
Runoff it is in Texas. Dewhurst 40, Cruz 31, Leppert 17.

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2012-elections/uttt-poll-runoff-prospects-loom-us-senate-races/


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 21, 2012, 08:16:05 pm
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette warmly endorses Tom Cotton.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/05/paper-house-candidate-like-clinton-fulbright-124143.html


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: mondale84 on May 22, 2012, 05:58:02 pm
With less than 1% in Kentucky, Obama is getting 64% against uncommitted and winning almost twice as many votes as Mitt Romney.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 22, 2012, 06:11:17 pm
KY-04 is looking good for Thomas Massie over Alecia Webb-Edgington. He's up 47-27 with about 20% in. It's apparently a victory of the (Rand) Paulites over the establishment.

With less than 1% in Kentucky, Obama is getting 64% against uncommitted and winning almost twice as many votes as Mitt Romney.

Re-read the thread title.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 22, 2012, 07:02:35 pm
How come Massie's win hasn't been called yet with over 60% in?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 22, 2012, 07:15:06 pm
Never mind- KY-04 was called for Massie. Next up (AR-4): will Cotton win now or on June 12?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 22, 2012, 07:56:51 pm
Huh? First Cotton was up 92-5, now Rankin up 66-31... with hardly anything (0.2%) reporting. This sure is weird so far.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 22, 2012, 08:23:02 pm
Never mind. Now a nip-n'-tuck with Cotton ahead 50-47.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 22, 2012, 08:44:49 pm
Meanwhile in AR-01, Clark Hall is losing to some guy who raised about $50k.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 22, 2012, 08:48:30 pm
Not that it'll make a difference. I'm guessing the 4th is taking so long to report (75 minutes since poll closing and only 3% in) because it's so rural.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 22, 2012, 08:58:09 pm
Now they're within 80 (no joke!) votes, with Rankin ahead.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 22, 2012, 09:15:20 pm
It'll be kind of silly if this heads to a runoff because of that other guy and his 3-4% of the vote.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 22, 2012, 09:17:38 pm
Now Cotton pulls ahead 52-44 with 23% reporting... but still a ways to go. The outcome might be delayed 2 weeks but it won't be changing.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 22, 2012, 09:25:30 pm
53-43 with 29% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 22, 2012, 09:38:51 pm
Palin just endorsed Hatch on Greta. (H/T PowerLine)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/22 - AR, KY; 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 22, 2012, 10:10:57 pm
54-41 Cotton with 44% in. Barring a major shift, looks like he wins outright. :)

Here's the video of Palin's Hatch endorsement.

http://www.therightscoop.com/sarah-palin-announces-endorsement-for-orrin-hatch-for-us-senate/


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/29 - TX)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 23, 2012, 06:53:08 am
AR-01 goes to a runoff. Good job drawing that 4-0 Republican map, guys.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/29 - TX)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 26, 2012, 09:08:13 pm
Texas coming up on Tuesday. On the Republican side, the big enchilada is the Senate primary, where David Dewhurst seems likely to get into a runoff with Ted Cruz, unless Tom Leppert comes from behind and pulls off a second-place finish. Other Republican primaries to watch are the open TX-14 and newly-Republican TX-25 and TX-36. The Democrats have primaries in TX-23 and the newly-Democratic TX-33 and TX-34 (protip: don't pick the indicted DA in the latter).


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 26, 2012, 09:13:33 pm
Dewhurst is definitely going into a runoff by dint of those pathetic ads he's running on China and immigration. Incumbents (or quasi-incumbents in his case) don't throw the kitchen sink unless they're panicking.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/29 - TX)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 28, 2012, 02:45:09 pm
What to watch tomorrow night:

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/05/five-things-to-1.php


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/29 - TX)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 29, 2012, 08:24:13 pm
Early results... Dewhurst at 47%.

Some weird results in the House primaries. Steve Stockman, former one-term Congressman, is leading the pack in TX-36 with 27% despite raising nearly no money. Surely he can't have that much residual name recognition?

Also, I thought Michael Williams was supposed to be a big up-and-comer. He's currently at 5% in TX-25, behind five other candidates.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/29 - TX)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 29, 2012, 08:43:41 pm
Wow, Silvestre Reyes is suddenly in trouble. Early vote has his opponent beating him 51-43.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/29 - TX)
Post by: Svensson on May 29, 2012, 11:32:29 pm
Well, guys, I think Reyes is boned.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/29 - TX)
Post by: ilikeverin on May 30, 2012, 12:17:11 am
Next up (AR-4): will Cotton win now or on June 12?

Speaking of AR-04, it turns out that one of the people (http://hurst4congress.com/) vying to lose to Cotton in November is my half-third-cousin-once-removed.  That is, my great-great-great-grandfather is his great-great-grandfather, but we are descended from him through different women (as my ggg-grandmother died and our mutual ancestor remarried).

In any case, here's a map of the results, because why the heck not:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/119_30_05_12_12_11_00.png)
Gene Jeffress is in red; my cousin Q. Byrum Hurst is in blue; and DC Morrison is in green.  Jeffress's strongest area of support is in what is presumably his State Senate district.  Hurst is strongest around where he grew up (and where our mutual ancestor settled), Hot Springs in Garland County.  His dad was apparently a State Senator in the area, and was sort of a big deal (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Q._Byrum_Hurst) (or, at least, was WikiNotable).

The race is essentially all but over, as Jeffress has wrapped up (http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/c1a58f230e704c5ca66d2f5de4c0213f/AR--Arkansas-Election-Morrison/) the support of DC Morrison, while Hurst seems to be suffering from some financial (http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/7ebf46965b014fcbb99c3721bcee7089/AR--4th-District-Hurst-Reprimanded/) mismanagement (http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/733bd4d64e68408ebb817734915cf6e2/AR--Arkansas-Election/).  Still exciting to learn about, though!  Not very many of my distant cousins have been notable enough to deserve Wikipedia articles.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/29 - TX)
Post by: Joe Republic on May 30, 2012, 01:56:45 am
Where can I get the full results for the TX congressional primaries?  I want to see if my friend's mom won hers.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/29 - TX)
Post by: Meeker on May 30, 2012, 01:58:39 am
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/TX_Page_0529.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/29 - TX)
Post by: Joe Republic on May 30, 2012, 02:03:22 am
Thank you sir.

Damn, she lost, but made the runoff.  She only got 13% to Filemon Vela's 41% though, so wish her a lot of luck.  :-\


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 5/29 - TX)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 30, 2012, 02:05:11 am
Quote
The 67-year-old Reyes was first elected to Congress in 1996. Reyes received a rare primary endorsement last month from President Barack Obama. The 39-year-old ORourke is an El Paso native who says he favors legalizing marijuana but wouldnt push for that in Congress.

Neat!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 30, 2012, 11:53:41 am
We haven't seen any Heinrich v. Balderas polling in a while. Fully expect Heinrich to win comfortably but wonder what the margin will be.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 30, 2012, 04:30:24 pm
There was one a week ago by the ABQ Journal. It was 51-26 Heinrich, which was the same as PPP's last poll of the race. I'm not bothering to link the news article because it's behind a paywall.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 02, 2012, 06:16:44 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/205_02_06_12_6_13_47.png)

Obviously, only races that not only were interesting (winner has at least a chance of getting to Congress) but also map interestingly (no one or two county districts.)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: Kushahontas on June 02, 2012, 10:12:26 am
also, awful Larouchite Kesha Rogers is once again the Dem candidate in CD-22


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 02, 2012, 10:49:28 am
I'm not even going to try to summarize California, so here's what's interesting in the rest of 6/5's primaries:

Iowa - Nothing; there are Republican primaries in IA-01 and 02, but those seats are not likely to be competitive in November.

Montana - Governor on the R side, MT-AL on the D side (though this one will probably not end up being competitive in November either)

New Jersey - Pascrell v. Rothman in NJ-09, open NJ-10 (D).

New Mexico - NM-Sen and NM-01, both on the D side.

South Dakota - Nothing.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 05, 2012, 12:04:57 am
Some key California races.

Prop. 29 tobacco tax - California has one of the lowest cigarette taxes, and hasn't raised them in 14 years, but Big Tobacco is spending a ton of money to defeat it like the last Prop. Tossup.

2nd place US Senate - Who gets to lose to DiFi in November? I hope it's a real Democrat.

And then there are various elections where we already know which two presumably be on the November ballot, but tomorrow can be a judge of the level of support they have. Stark vs. Swallel. Berman vs. Sherman, and so on.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: smoltchanov on June 05, 2012, 02:20:41 am
2nd place US Senate - Who gets to lose to DiFi in November? I hope it's a real Democrat.


Feinstein is already not a "real Democrat"? Both Democratic and Republican loonies (especially on partisam sites, but occasionaly here too) continue to amaze me and make me laugh...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 05, 2012, 04:23:21 am
2nd place US Senate - Who gets to lose to DiFi in November? I hope it's a real Democrat.


Feinstein is already not a "real Democrat"? Both Democratic and Republican loonies (especially on partisam sites, but occasionaly here too) continue to amaze me and make me laugh...

OK, she's no Manchin, but she's pretty disappointing compared to Boxer, she's not. Or Sherrod Brown, who represents a much more conservative state.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: smoltchanov on June 05, 2012, 05:00:32 am
OK, she's no Manchin, but she's pretty disappointing compared to Boxer, she's not. Or Sherrod Brown, who represents a much more conservative state.

Nevertheless, she is quite reliable moderate-liberal Democrat. No one will mistake her for a Republican. And by my standards there is no really conservative Democrats in Congress anymore (just as there are no liberal Republicans) - even Boren is moderate-conservative (especially when compared with really conservative Democrats of the past)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 05, 2012, 03:49:18 pm
Yeah, Feinstein is awful. I'd love to see a real Democrat win.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 05, 2012, 08:02:24 pm
Some results in from NJ-10: Don Payne Jr. leads Nia Gill 47-28. He's got a big lead in Essex, she's got a narrow lead in Hudson. Nothing from Union yet.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 05, 2012, 08:38:58 pm
Looks like Don Payne Jr. will succeed his father. He's up 58-19 now.

Not looking promising for Steve Rothman. Pascrell leads him 92-8 in Passaic, while he only has a 71-29 lead in Bergen.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 05, 2012, 08:55:57 pm
For NM-Sen, Martin Heinrich is beating Hector Balderas 73-27. Half of what's in is Bernalillo, but Balderas is winning most of the other counties that have reported results so far. In NM-01, Michelle Lujan Grisham is leading Eric Griego 42-36, with Marty Chavez a distant third.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 05, 2012, 09:46:23 pm
Rothman might as well have run against Garrett. With 90% in, he's losing 64-36.

Also, another uninspiring win for Leonard Lance; he's ahead of his Some Dude challenger by only 62-38.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 05, 2012, 10:05:51 pm
OK, she's no Manchin, but she's pretty disappointing compared to Boxer, she's not. Or Sherrod Brown, who represents a much more conservative state.

Nevertheless, she is quite reliable moderate-liberal Democrat. No one will mistake her for a Republican. And by my standards there is no really conservative Democrats in Congress anymore (just as there are no liberal Republicans) - even Boren is moderate-conservative (especially when compared with really conservative Democrats of the past)

Manchin is pretty right-wing, so whatever.


California polls have closed, but nothing seems to be reporting yet. It could be a slow night, 55% are expected to vote absentee.
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: RI on June 05, 2012, 10:11:33 pm
Emken in a clear second at the moment (1.7% in).


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 05, 2012, 10:19:18 pm
Usually in California it's heavily Republican areas that report first, but the results in so far seem a bit bay area heavy. Sadly the Republican endorsed candidate Emken is in a clear 2nd place for US Senate. Prop. 29 is passing, but it had better be if it's heavily bay area results so far.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 05, 2012, 10:26:49 pm
Results are really early.

In CA-15, Stark is trailing to Swalwell in early results. There's a 3rd candidate with a good chunk of the vote too. They'll likely both be on the November ballot.
 
In CA-30, Sherman is leading Berman. They'll definitely both be on the November ballot.

For Presidential primaries, Obama is at 100% (what happened to my write-in damn it), Romney is 81%. American Independents and Greens have close races. Johnson is leading the Libertarian primary, and Rocky Anderson is leading Peace & Freedom.




Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 05, 2012, 10:29:29 pm
More conservative areas reporting. Prop. 29 is down to 52.7%. It'll be sad if Big Tobacco has yet another victory in California. We have one of the lowest cigarette tax rates in the country. It's currently failing in Los Angeles county, which is not a good sign.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 05, 2012, 10:33:42 pm
It turns out the SOS results are really slow. Stark is up 45-35 in the Alameda county results.

http://www.acgov.org/rov/current_election/1717.htm


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: greenforest32 on June 05, 2012, 11:02:52 pm
California polls have closed, but nothing seems to be reporting yet. It could be a slow night, 55% are expected to vote absentee.

I wonder how postal voting will work with election-day registration if it passes?

http://www.thinkprogress.org/justice/2012/06/01/493486/california-election-day-registration/

Quote
AB 1436, which passed the Assembly by a 47-26 vote, would remove restrictions on when Californians could register to vote. If it becomes law, citizens would also be able to register at the polls on Election Day.

Quote
Right now, Californians are only allowed to register up to 15 days before an election. Passing AB 1436 would change that and significantly boost voter turnout in the Golden State.

In the nine states (plus Washington DC) that currently allow Election Day registration, studies have shown the legislation boosted voter turnout by seven percentage points. Most states that have implemented Election Day registration are small or medium-sized; California could pave the way for large states to embrace this important step in voting rights.

AB 1436 will now advance to the Senate, where Democrats enjoy a 25-15 advantage.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 06, 2012, 12:01:56 am
California polls have closed, but nothing seems to be reporting yet. It could be a slow night, 55% are expected to vote absentee.

I wonder how postal voting will work with election-day registration if it passes?

http://www.thinkprogress.org/justice/2012/06/01/493486/california-election-day-registration/

Quote
AB 1436, which passed the Assembly by a 47-26 vote, would remove restrictions on when Californians could register to vote. If it becomes law, citizens would also be able to register at the polls on Election Day.

Quote
Right now, Californians are only allowed to register up to 15 days before an election. Passing AB 1436 would change that and significantly boost voter turnout in the Golden State.

In the nine states (plus Washington DC) that currently allow Election Day registration, studies have shown the legislation boosted voter turnout by seven percentage points. Most states that have implemented Election Day registration are small or medium-sized; California could pave the way for large states to embrace this important step in voting rights.

AB 1436 will now advance to the Senate, where Democrats enjoy a 25-15 advantage.

If they did same day registration, they'd probably give you a provisional ballot at the polls.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 06, 2012, 12:11:32 am
And here is why the blanket primary can be bad. CA-31 is considered a tossup, but the 4 Democrats are trailing the 2 Republicans.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-congress/district/31


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: Beet on June 06, 2012, 12:27:49 am
More conservative areas reporting. Prop. 29 is down to 52.7%. It'll be sad if Big Tobacco has yet another victory in California. We have one of the lowest cigarette tax rates in the country. It's currently failing in Los Angeles county, which is not a good sign.

You also have pretty much the lowest smoking rate in the country. I'd rather have fewer smokers & lower taxes than vice versa.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 06, 2012, 12:29:01 am
More conservative areas reporting. Prop. 29 is down to 52.7%. It'll be sad if Big Tobacco has yet another victory in California. We have one of the lowest cigarette tax rates in the country. It's currently failing in Los Angeles county, which is not a good sign.

You also have pretty much the lowest smoking rate in the country. I'd rather have fewer smokers & lower taxes than vice versa.

Well, raising cigarette taxes certainly isn't going to increase the smoking rate.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: Beet on June 06, 2012, 12:30:19 am
More conservative areas reporting. Prop. 29 is down to 52.7%. It'll be sad if Big Tobacco has yet another victory in California. We have one of the lowest cigarette tax rates in the country. It's currently failing in Los Angeles county, which is not a good sign.

You also have pretty much the lowest smoking rate in the country. I'd rather have fewer smokers & lower taxes than vice versa.

Well, raising cigarette taxes certainly isn't going to increase the smoking rate.

Just point out California is probably Big Tobacco's least favorite state. It doesn't matter what laws you have, at the end of the day what matters is demand.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 06, 2012, 12:40:03 am
More conservative areas reporting. Prop. 29 is down to 52.7%. It'll be sad if Big Tobacco has yet another victory in California. We have one of the lowest cigarette tax rates in the country. It's currently failing in Los Angeles county, which is not a good sign.

You also have pretty much the lowest smoking rate in the country. I'd rather have fewer smokers & lower taxes than vice versa.

Well, raising cigarette taxes certainly isn't going to increase the smoking rate.

Just point out California is probably Big Tobacco's least favorite state. It doesn't matter what laws you have, at the end of the day what matters is demand.

Why wouldn't they hate Utah more?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 06, 2012, 01:44:16 am
And here is why the blanket primary can be bad. CA-31 is considered a tossup, but the 4 Democrats are trailing the 2 Republicans.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-congress/district/31

Meanwhile, the reverse is happening in the neighboring 8th district, which has a Republican incumbent:

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-congress/district/8


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 06, 2012, 01:48:33 am
Prop. 29 is at 50.1%. Most of the bay area is in. The SoCal counties where it's failing (which include LA county) are mostly not in. I think it's hosed. The one hope for it is that maybe it's the more conservative areas of LA county reporting. I can't really see it passing statewide while failing in LA county.

Big Tobacco has prevented California from raising cigarette taxes in 14 years, and they are only about half the nationwide average now.


And here is why the blanket primary can be bad. CA-31 is considered a tossup, but the 4 Democrats are trailing the 2 Republicans.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-congress/district/31

Meanwhile, the reverse is happening in the neighboring 8th district, which has a Republican incumbent:

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-congress/district/8

There are Republicans in 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th there. Not exactly the reverse.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 06, 2012, 01:53:13 am
Prop. 29 is now trailing for the first time.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: smoltchanov on June 06, 2012, 02:26:50 am
Manchin is pretty right-wing, so whatever.

Manchin? Absolute centrist, may be even slightly left-of-center. At least - on economy...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: smoltchanov on June 06, 2012, 02:27:40 am
Yeah, Feinstein is awful. I'd love to see a real Democrat win.

Far-left loonie?))) No, thanks))))


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2012, 02:32:27 am
The result of something like CA-31 is that next cycle the party leaders are going to be much, much more out front about discouraging candidates from running and telling donors not to support them. Which essentially leads to party candidates being selected behind closed doors. Which is why the top-two system sucks!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 06, 2012, 02:52:40 am
And here is why the blanket primary can be bad. CA-31 is considered a tossup, but the 4 Democrats are trailing the 2 Republicans.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-congress/district/31

Meanwhile, the reverse is happening in the neighboring 8th district, which has a Republican incumbent:

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-congress/district/8

There are Republicans in 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th there. Not exactly the reverse.

Looks like things have changed since the last time I checked.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 06, 2012, 07:25:26 am
Balderas ended up winning 59-41. Michelle Lujan Grisham won in NM-01 40-35. (I guess Marty Chavez is not fondly remembered in Albuquerque, he only got 25% in Bernalillo County.)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: krazen1211 on June 06, 2012, 08:25:54 am
CA-31 is a GOP hold now?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on June 06, 2012, 08:55:02 am
The fact that smoking rates in California are so low are exactly why I'm shocked they voted it down and fell for the Big Tobacco propaganda. Raising cigarette taxes has been pretty easy in far more conservative states with higher rates of smoking.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: WMS on June 06, 2012, 10:56:54 am
Balderas ended up winning 59-41. Michelle Lujan Grisham won in NM-01 40-35. (I guess Marty Chavez is not fondly remembered in Albuquerque, he only got 25% in Bernalillo County.)

Amongst the liberal Democratic primary electorate here, no, he's not. Marty was always more popular with the independent centrist types and moderate Republicans, as shown in his electoral results as Mayor. The extremes always hated him, and since they dominate primaries...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 06, 2012, 11:09:46 am
Once again, Taitz remains a figure of "relevance" only to MSNBC/Maddow (think something is going on there?) and the blogosphere.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 06, 2012, 11:24:39 am
Once again, Taitz remains a figure of "relevance" only to MSNBC/Maddow (think something is going on there?) and the blogosphere.
The liberal media always finds the craziest GOP candidates, even if they have no support, and showcases them in an effort to make Republicans as a whole look bad. Its unfortunate.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (next: 6/5 - CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 06, 2012, 11:33:14 am
And here is why the blanket primary can be bad. CA-31 is considered a tossup, but the 4 Democrats are trailing the 2 Republicans.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-congress/district/31

Meanwhile, the reverse is happening in the neighboring 8th district, which has a Republican incumbent:

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-congress/district/8

There are Republicans in 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th there. Not exactly the reverse.

Looks like things have changed since the last time I checked.
And ended up in 1st and 2nd.



Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: timothyinMD on June 06, 2012, 11:36:16 am
CA-31 is a GOP hold now?

Yup!  So is CA-8.  Both safe R now :)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Torie on June 06, 2012, 11:55:36 am
I am moving a bunch of my posts that were put in the wrong thread by me in a senior moment, which has become a garbage dump anyway. Here is the first:

And here gentlemen is the biggest upset of the night going away. The Pubs win a Dem leaning/weak safe seat 5 months early (it's a jungle primary, so 2 Pubs will run against each other in November)! It has a Dem PVI of around 4%. I am in shock. Thank you. :)

I might add that Gary Miller had to carpet bag into this CD. One can call him an "incumbent," but that is a stretch.

(http://i1099.photobucket.com/albums/g392/swdunn1/Screenshot2012-06-06at62351AM.png)

cc: muon2
sbane


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Torie on June 06, 2012, 11:56:35 am
And here gentlemen is the biggest upset of the night going away. The Pubs win a Dem leaning/weak safe seat 5 months early (it's a jungle primary, so 2 Pubs will run against each other in November)! It has a Dem PVI of around 4%. I am in shock. Thank you. :)

And the two Republicans got >50%, so it's not as if split Dem opposition was the only reason. Was it low turnout among Dems for a primary? If so, that's going to kill us again and again in CA in this kind of case.

Probably a combo of a trend to the Pubs in this area (the economy there is a disaster - close to the worst in the nation), light Hispanic turnout, a guy labeled as an "incumbent," another Pub who is a strong candidate in the San Bernardino area, who might well knock Gary Miller off in November, and the main Dem having an Hispanic name (Anglos in this area just don't vote for Hispanics). That is my little list off the top of my head.

The result might have been different if the Dems had a hot race up ballot. But the Senate race is almost a waste of money to even bother having this year, and there of course were no statewide state office races.  The only thing that was sexy at all was the cig tax initiative - a Dem idea that was probably not very popular with more down market voters, including lots of Dems.


And the two Republicans got >50%, so it's not as if split Dem opposition was the only reason. Was it low turnout among Dems for a primary? If so, that's going to kill us again and again in CA in this kind of case.

Yes. Republicans in California generally demonstrated better turnout yesterday then Democrats. They even managed to come first in one Bay area Assembly district (no small feat by present-day standards). Most likely - they will not win it in November, but still - ...

If I had to guess, I would say the primary electorate was skewed about 3 points to the Pubs, plus or minus a point. The Dems for the Senate race got 56% of the vote, and in the General, 59% seems more like it. Looking at the other CD's, which I will put up another thread about in due course, the under performers were Capps in the Santa Barbara area, and Bilbray down in San Diego County. The Pubs seems to have the open "Hispanic" CD in the south Central Valley (used to be a Dem CD elsewhere) in lockdown, which has about a zero PVI. It looks like there may be a fair number of close CD races in the General, in a whole series of Dem PVI plus 2-4% CD's (with the exception of the Garamendi CD up between SF and Sacramento (2.82% Dem PVI), which he seems to have in lockdown), along with more Pub CD's, in particular Bilbray, and Lungren up in the east Sacto burbs (which in general seem to be trending Dem I might add). Another big exception is Riverside, mentioned below.  Oh, and McNerney in the east Contra Costa burbs and San Joaquin (Dem PVI 4.27%), also seems in pretty good shape. He got 48.4% of the vote to the Pubs' 51.6%, and given the Pub skew, should win in November (call it likely Dem).

Overall, despite the Pub skew, it was not a good night for the Dems in CA. It looks like about a 2-5 point trend to the Pubs generally after correcting for the skew (it varies substantially by region, with the Dems in meltdown in the inland empire (in Riverside (ground zero when it comes to economic meltdown, with just about the worst economy in the nation), with a Dem PVI of 7%, the Pubs got 55% of the vote, a trend correcting for the skew of about 9 points), in an even national election environment (which really seems to be the case this year at the moment).


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 06, 2012, 03:18:02 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2373_06_06_12_3_13_52.png)

Top Republican candidate for Senate in each county (percentage is of total vote for Republican candidates). The top Republican finished in second place in each county, although San Francisco was very close.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 06, 2012, 03:21:40 pm
So next week the only remotely interesting race will be the sacrificial lambs running against King in Maine. Hmm... I'll wait another few weeks for Hatch's margin in Utah.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 06, 2012, 03:42:36 pm
Here's another map of the Senate primary; this one shows which party received more votes overall. This seems to me to be a pretty reasonable baseline for Feinstein in the general.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2373_06_06_12_3_41_40.png)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 06, 2012, 04:13:22 pm
I'm in Utah for the summer, so ill be able to be on the ground as another veteran Republican fends off a Tea Party challenger. ;) I plan on doing some volunteer work for Hatch, though his opponent doesn't seem too horrible, and this is a state that'll vote GOP regardless, unlike Indiana.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 06, 2012, 04:16:31 pm
Hatch is safe. Liljenquist is a great candidate but he's plenty young enough to fight with Chaffetz over the 2018 nomination. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 06, 2012, 08:57:37 pm
CA-31 is certainly an upset. Turnout combined with the undemocratic nature of the top 2 primary system screwed the Democrats there. The other cases where a party got shut out were not upsets.

Here's the list

CA-08 - Democrats ran, but 2 Republicans advanced
CA-31 - Ditto

CA-30 - Republicans ran, but 2 Democrats advanced
CA-33 - Republican candidate, but a Democrat and an Independent advanced.

In addition, there was 1 district (CA-23) where no Democrat ran, and  several districts where no Republican ran.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: True Federalist on June 06, 2012, 09:30:24 pm
Just when you thought the South Carolina primaries couldn't get weirder this year, they have.

As you may or may not be aware, around 200 candidates got kicked off the primary ballots last month because our State's Supreme Court chose to have the audacity to say that the election law as written needed to be followed even if it might not have been what the General Assembly intended, and that the law in this case said that prospective candidates for the primary needed to file an economic interest statement both online with the State Election Commission and hand in a paper copy to their county party.

But another court decision yesterday is stirring trouble even more.

TheState.com (http://www.thestate.com/2012/06/05/2304148/supreme-court-tosses-florence.html)

WYFF4.com (http://www.wyff4.com/news/columbia-statewide-news/Court-decision-leaves-SC-primary-in-turmoil/-/9324106/14670766/-/e053g4z/-/index.html)

The first article refers to just the Florence County GOP, but as the second shows, this is affecting other county parties as well.

A few county parties tried not to follow that order and refused to provide a list of those who did not do what the court said the law required  So now the court has ordered those county parties to provide a list of those who did do what was required and if they don't, everyone gets thrown off.  Not only that, but the county election commissions are required to either get new ballots prepared or if not possible so late, to post signs at each polling place with a list of the stricken candidates and warning voters that ballots cast for them will not be counted.  In addition, the county parties which chose to ignore the court's prior order are required to pay the added costs the county election commissions will incur.  In the case of Oconee County, the primary has been cancelled, as no contested races remain there.  (South Carolina does not allow write-in votes in party primaries.)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 06, 2012, 11:06:34 pm
I wouldn't infer too much about November from the June results here in California. Only 24% of registered voters voted. Wisconsin had over half the voters we did yesterday.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: smoltchanov on June 07, 2012, 02:23:40 am
CA-31 is certainly an upset. Turnout combined with the undemocratic nature of the top 2 primary system screwed the Democrats there. The other cases where a party got shut out were not upsets.

Here's the list

CA-08 - Democrats ran, but 2 Republicans advanced
CA-31 - Ditto

CA-30 - Republicans ran, but 2 Democrats advanced
CA-33 - Republican candidate, but a Democrat and an Independent advanced.

In addition, there was 1 district (CA-23) where no Democrat ran, and  several districts where no Republican ran.

I greatly prefer present system (Independent redistricting comission and "top 2") to pprevious. California was ABSOLUTELY boring state under previous system: congressional and state legislative distrivcts gerrymandered to such extent that usually there was maximum 1-2 interesting races in November. And, in addition, results of the primaries were almost always the same: loonies of both paties almost invariably won. I have relatives in California with similar to my modertate views - they cursed loudly each election reading candidates list, and then choose "the lesser evil". That was previous system - thanks God it's in the past..


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 07, 2012, 03:47:23 am
The "blanket primary" this early in the year, outside election season, is completely antidemocratic. It is also, of course, not describable as a "primary" without purposeful lying. It's the first round of the general election, with the second round following - and that is the problematic aspect - a ridiculous five months later. That there will be a runoff even in case of a majority is hardly sufficient as a face-saver (all the first round majorities bar one that I recall occurred in districts with only token opposition anyhow.)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: smoltchanov on June 07, 2012, 04:05:45 am
I can agree that it's the first round of general election, but see nothing bad in it. But i absolutely disagree that "5 month before general election" is "outside election season": after all - the first Congressional and state legislative primary this year were in Ohio 3 month ago. If i would be a person to decide - such "top 2" primary would be in all 50 states))) I "love" present-day US political parties "so much"))))))))


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 07, 2012, 04:06:59 am
Fine with me, but then have the two rounds follow each other closely.

I think primary vs general election turnout amply proves my point. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: smoltchanov on June 07, 2012, 04:19:46 am
Fine with me, but then have the two rounds follow each other closely.

I think primary vs general election turnout amply proves my point. :P

Well, may be. But i am not to blame for somebody's laziness. Republicans generally came to vote 2 days ago, Democrats - generally not (especially hispanics). Who is to blame, but themselves? If you don't give a damn about process, you get... what you deserved.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 07, 2012, 04:43:30 am
It makes just as much* sense to blame you personally, and I choose to. It's all your fault.

*as in, none. It makes no sense to blame people for what is evidently a systemic flaw.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: smoltchanov on June 07, 2012, 04:59:23 am
IMHO - people's flaw. If people doesn't pay due attention to electoral process - they lose the right to complain, that "they are represented by wrong people". Everything was in their hands, they could at least to try to elect people THEY want. If they didn't - there were another people with another views, who CARED  and elected "their" people. It's all that simple)))


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 07, 2012, 05:35:31 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/205_07_06_12_5_34_41.png)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: ottermax on June 08, 2012, 02:48:31 am
We probably should wait a few more election cycles before judging the merits of the blanket primary. I think it may give rise to some new patterns after people become accustomed to it, and other parties realize how they can use the system to wedge their issues.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: smoltchanov on June 08, 2012, 03:05:18 am
We probably should wait a few more election cycles before judging the merits of the blanket primary. I think it may give rise to some new patterns after people become accustomed to it, and other parties realize how they can use the system to wedge their issues.

Here i fully agree. IMHO, this time it's influence was more felt among Democrats, with slightly more successfull "moderate" candidates then usual, but in future it must influence Republicans too...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: rob in cal on June 08, 2012, 11:27:44 am
I thought there were about 3-4 GOP held districts in California where the Dems were hoping for a pickup opportunity.  Anyone know which ones they are, and how the primary vote went down in those districts?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 09, 2012, 12:22:00 am
Prop. 29 might pass after all. It's up to 49.6% (up from 49.3% Wednesday). It's trailing by 37,000 votes. The SOS says that there are over a million ballots left to be processed.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 12, 2012, 06:54:40 pm
Allen officially clinches in VA.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Kevinstat on June 12, 2012, 07:28:52 pm
1 precinct in in Maine so far, the town of Crawford in Washington county.  It appears that 16 Republicans and only 1 Democrat voted in that town from the totals.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: mondale84 on June 12, 2012, 07:33:31 pm
Where is everyone getting the numbers?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Kevinstat on June 12, 2012, 07:37:41 pm
For Maine, I'm using both the Bangor Daily News ( http://maineelections.bangordailynews.com/index.php )  and the AP ( http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/ME_Page_0612.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS for statewide totals and http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/ME_Page_0612.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS for totals by municipality), the latter of which has more precincts reporting now.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: shua on June 12, 2012, 09:02:39 pm
VA GOP Senate Primary: Allen 65.4, Radtke 23.1, Marshall 6.8, Jackson 4.8


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: nclib on June 12, 2012, 09:35:07 pm
With 39% precincts in, North Dakota's deceptive "religious freedom" amendment, that among other things could allow a man to beat his wife and children if his religious beliefs say so, is losing 62%-38%.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on June 12, 2012, 11:11:01 pm
In the ND-AL race, Cramer beat Kalk 54/46. Mason-Dixon's recent poll had Cramer up by 39.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on June 12, 2012, 11:35:48 pm
Here's where we are in the AR-01 D runoff. With pretty much everything in, Scott Ellington (red) is on track to beat Clark Hall (blue) by a few hundred votes.

5% color scale.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/4344_12_06_12_11_33_01.png)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: smoltchanov on June 13, 2012, 02:49:36 am
Some impressions:

VA - Allen and Goodlatte underperformed rather severely

ND -  The same about Berg, plus party establishment was rather humiliated with Cramer beating Kalk.

SC - If results in SC-07 will hold  Democrats may forget about this district, even if  Bauer with all his baggage will be nominee. Too few blacks and too many whites, who will not vote for Black, especially a "recent carpetbagger from Georgia"

AR - Most likely AR-01 will stay Republican (narrow Ellington win didn't impressed me at all) and AR-04 will flip - despite  Jeffress impressive run-off win  and good messenger skills - it's impossible to win congressional campaign without money and good PR (it was possible 50 years ago). Especially against Cotton with all his money and, generally, a well-oiled campaign...

AZ - Very good win for Barber. Republicans must never nominate Kelly again, even for doorkeeper, and run McSally instead..

NV - Not impressed by neither Tarkanian, nor Oceguera

ME - Democrats nominated a far-far-left (though energetic) candidate for Senate, Republicans - former moderate, who veered to the right during primary campaign. King's task, probably, became easier, and his chances - better.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Niemeyerite on June 13, 2012, 05:47:58 am
How is Gloria Bromell Tinubu considered a carpetbagger? She's spent all her live in SC, and was a state representative in Georgia for only 1.5 years. She should be seen as a carpetbagger IN Georgia, not in SC.

EDIT: Anyway, she'll lose badly even against Bauer... She's the new Alvin Greene.

She's trying to hide her past in her web, look: http://www.gloria4congress.com/209/

LoL


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: smoltchanov on June 13, 2012, 05:59:16 am
How is Gloria Bromell Tinubu considered a carpetbagger? She's spent all her live in SC, and was a state representative in Georgia for only 1.5 years. She should be seen as a carpetbagger IN Georgia, not in SC.

EDIT: Anyway, she'll lose badly even against Bauer... She's the new Alvin Greene.

She's trying to hide her past in her web, look: http://www.gloria4congress.com/209/

LoL

Thanks for correction. I based my conclusions on her LAST years in Georgia..


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 13, 2012, 12:14:01 pm
Next up: Hatch v. Llljenquist in Utah. Should be a comfortable Hatch victory.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: smoltchanov on June 14, 2012, 03:36:09 am
Next up: Hatch v. Llljenquist in Utah. Should be a comfortable Hatch victory.

Yes. And then nothing more until August)))


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 14, 2012, 03:41:56 am
New York also has congressional primaries on the 26th.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: THIS MACHINE CRUSHES REGRESSIVES on June 14, 2012, 08:44:22 am
New York also has congressional primaries on the 26th.

Which have the potential to send the most radical politician in New York to Congress. Should be crazy.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 15, 2012, 02:12:37 am
New York also has congressional primaries on the 26th.

Which have the potential to send the most radical politician in New York to Congress. Should be crazy.

Who's this?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on June 15, 2012, 02:19:41 am
New York also has congressional primaries on the 26th.

Which have the potential to send the most radical politician in New York to Congress. Should be crazy.

Paladino isn't running for Congress.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: smoltchanov on June 15, 2012, 05:37:55 am
New York also has congressional primaries on the 26th.

Which have the potential to send the most radical politician in New York to Congress. Should be crazy.

Paladino isn't running for Congress.

I think - they speak about Charles Barron))))


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Torie on June 15, 2012, 09:31:50 am
Charles Barron's major interest (http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/06/gillibrand-rebukes-charles-barron-126272.html) seems to involve Israel, and Jews in general (e.g., they perambulate in a possessive and arrogant way). He seems as fond of both of them as Cynthia McKinney.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Horus on June 15, 2012, 11:44:49 am
Barron is a scary guy, and this is coming from a lapsed Jew who is about as anti-Israel as can be. Jeffries on the other hand is one of my favorite candidates this year. That was a really douchey move by Ed Towns to endorse Barron.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: THIS MACHINE CRUSHES REGRESSIVES on June 15, 2012, 02:46:55 pm
Charles Barron's major interest (http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/06/gillibrand-rebukes-charles-barron-126272.html) seems to involve Israel, and Jews in general (e.g., they perambulate in a possessive and arrogant way). He seems as fond of both of them as Cynthia McKinney.

He also called Khadafy one of his personal heroes.

The guy's a complete lunatic. Definitely comparable to Cynthia McKinney.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on June 15, 2012, 09:37:57 pm
From the Wikipedia article on Barron:

Quote
On September 12, 2002, Barron was host to Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe at New York City Hall, praising him as a liberator for Black Africans in then-Rhodesia

Quote
In November 2011, Barron voiced enthusiastic support for Colonel Muammar Qaddafi, and claimed that he did not kill Libyans during their uprising against his autocratic dictatorship.[90]

Out there, they dont know that Qaddafi was our brother. He dismissed claims of Qaddafis brutality. People say Didnt he kill all those people? I say, I dont know anything. The man was a freedom fighter. He gestured to a poster of a young Qaddafi. Can you imagine what this man had to go through?... He asked them to chant Long live Muammar Qaddafi.

In an interview in 2008, Barron voiced support for African dictator Robert Mugabe, who has committed serious atrocities in Zimbabwe and discriminated against his people.[91]:

In the year 2000, when he said one farm, one farmer, he was vilified, Barron told me. For 20 years they loved Mugabe because they didnt take the land from the whites. In South Africa, he goes on, whites still own 80 to 90 percent of the land. Thats why they like Mandela. Thats why they like Bishop Tutu. They let the whites keep the land. As for the violence, Barron said that he had seen no evidence tying the government to the attacks on opposition supporters; that there were bad things done by opposition supporters, too; and that none of the reports on whats happening in Zimbabwe were objective.

In 2002, Barron invited Mugabe to City Hall and greeted him there.

Quote
In November 2011, Barron said that he opposed same sex marriage. "I believe simply in an institution of marriage between a man and a woman." He also said, "My wife and I believe that. We support every other thing regarding gay rights and we support everything but the marriage thing. We don't want to have people impose their values or beliefs on us and we're not imposing ours on you."

HP big time. Good thing the whole state establishment is lining up against him (even if the outgoing incumbent isn't.)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 16, 2012, 06:03:18 am
The guy's a complete lunatic. Definitely comparable to Cynthia McKinney.

I don't know, she did have a certain drug addled charm.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on June 16, 2012, 11:54:17 am
I'm a little vague on exactly how this works so a poster more familiar with NY is welcome to correct me if this is wrong, but my understanding is that Hakeem Jeffries already has the Working Families line and could thus continue a general election campaign in the event of a primary loss to Barron.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Horus on June 17, 2012, 09:52:15 pm
I'm a little vague on exactly how this works so a poster more familiar with NY is welcome to correct me if this is wrong, but my understanding is that Hakeem Jeffries already has the Working Families line and could thus continue a general election campaign in the event of a primary loss to Barron.

That's correct. He could and probably would still be on the ballot, albeit not with a (D) next to his name.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on June 22, 2012, 09:21:43 pm
And just in case we thought this election season was a little short on the weird:

David Duke endorses Charles Barron. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lHTq6xpATI&feature=related)

"In a race for Congress between an anti-Zionist black activist and a black activist who is a bought and paid for Zionist Uncle Tom, Ill take the anti-Zionist any day."


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 22, 2012, 09:22:54 pm
And Hatch will thrash Liljenquist the same day, so a return to regularly scheduled, sane programming.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 23, 2012, 10:30:42 am
And Hatch will thrash Liljenquist the same day, so a return to regularly scheduled, sane programming.
Correct.

In case anyone had doubt, BYU came out with a poll today with Hatch up big, well over 50%. They did a bunch of hypothetical scenarios on how undecideds would break, and his average margin of victory was 29 points. Don't expect Liljenquist to even hit 40%.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 23, 2012, 08:47:38 pm
And Hatch will thrash Liljenquist the same day, so a return to regularly scheduled, sane programming.
Correct.

In case anyone had doubt, BYU came out with a poll today with Hatch up big, well over 50%. They did a bunch of hypothetical scenarios on how undecideds would break, and his average margin of victory was 29 points. Don't expect Liljenquist to even hit 40%.

Oh well, it would have been too crazy if the second most senior Senate Republican joined the most senior Senate Republican in being primaried.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Eraserhead on June 26, 2012, 06:05:05 am
The "wow, look at that car wreck!" part of me is really hoping for a Barron victory tonight.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: THIS MACHINE CRUSHES REGRESSIVES on June 26, 2012, 08:26:05 am
The "wow, look at that car wreck!" part of me is really hoping for a Barron victory tonight.

Jeffries will probably win in the fall on the WFP line anyway, with bigger turnout.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 26, 2012, 01:38:45 pm
Today, Utahns head to the polls to decide who leads their government next year. It's General Election Day!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Eraserhead on June 26, 2012, 02:36:51 pm
The "wow, look at that car wreck!" part of me is really hoping for a Barron victory tonight.

Jeffries will probably win in the fall on the WFP line anyway, with bigger turnout.

I seriously doubt he'd win without the Democratic line. But in reality, he'll probably win today anyway, so it doesn't matter. He may even win by double digits.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: xavier110 on June 26, 2012, 03:25:49 pm
My father voted for Wendy Long for NY Senate. Upset over Turner? LOL


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: THIS MACHINE CRUSHES REGRESSIVES on June 26, 2012, 04:29:39 pm
The "wow, look at that car wreck!" part of me is really hoping for a Barron victory tonight.

Jeffries will probably win in the fall on the WFP line anyway, with bigger turnout.

I seriously doubt he'd win without the Democratic line. But in reality, he'll probably win today anyway, so it doesn't matter. He may even win by double digits.

With five months to make everyone completely aware of who Charles Barron is? A slice of toast could win in a big-turnout election, as long as it wasn't Republican bread.

But yeah, probably. I don't think this'll be as close as all that. Rangel's race is going to be much more interesting.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Eraserhead on June 26, 2012, 04:34:43 pm
I just voted for Joel Tyner (a OWS friendly, anti-fracking Democrat who chewed out Obama over Afghanistan) over Julian Schreibman (a Moderate Hero Democrat, who will probably win... although to be fair he is still significantly to the left of someone like Scott Murphy or the House version of Kirsten Gillibrand). This was in NY-19 (formerly NY-20) which is represented by Chris Gibson. That was the only race on my ballot today.

Is it weird that I'm actually pretty excited about seeing the results of several of these races tonight, btw?

Tender, gives us some good links!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: mondale84 on June 26, 2012, 04:51:51 pm
My father voted for Wendy Long for NY Senate. Upset over Turner? LOL

One of my best friends is a family friend of her's and she's working for the campaign


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/26 - SC runoff)
Post by: True Federalist on June 26, 2012, 07:34:07 pm
Runoffs for both parties in SC's 7th Congressional District, plus a few local runoffs as well.

WYFF: http://www.wyff4.com/news/politics/South-Carolina-Runoff-Election-results/-/9324082/15195356/-/bw685kz/-/index.html (http://www.wyff4.com/news/politics/South-Carolina-Runoff-Election-results/-/9324082/15195356/-/bw685kz/-/index.html)

SC SEC: http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/40277/89216/en/summary.html (http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/40277/89216/en/summary.html)

WYFF has faster results, so far the State Election Commission has none.

With half the precincts in, Tinubu has a 73-27 lead over Brittain in a pointless Democratic runoff, while on the Republican side Horry County Council Chairman Tom Rice has a 58-42 lead over ex-Lt. Gov Andre Bauer.  Looks like Tom Rice will be going to Washington this January.




Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Eraserhead on June 26, 2012, 07:53:47 pm
Politico will be covering all of the results on their front page tonight:

http://www.politico.com/


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Nhoj on June 26, 2012, 07:57:30 pm
Congressman John Sullivan (OK-2) is currently tied with his republican opponent. besides being an alcoholic I don't know if hes done anything else to be losing.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Eraserhead on June 26, 2012, 08:30:38 pm
Long has a big lead over Turner but it's still super early and it looks like it's mostly stuff from parts of the state where she should be strong so far.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Indy Texas on June 26, 2012, 08:39:13 pm
Congressman John Sullivan (OK-2) is currently tied with his republican opponent. besides being an alcoholic I don't know if hes done anything else to be losing.

According to Wikipedia, he alluded to shooting members of the US Senate at a townhall meeting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_A._Sullivan#Controversies (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_A._Sullivan#Controversies)
A real mensch, that one.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Eraserhead on June 26, 2012, 08:49:24 pm
Very early but Rangel appears to be getting thrashed.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 26, 2012, 08:49:55 pm
Very early but Rangel appears to be getting thrashed.

Let's wait and see. If so, good riddance.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Progressive on June 26, 2012, 08:56:15 pm
Hey guys can I get an AP link w/ results


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: mondale84 on June 26, 2012, 09:00:18 pm
BREAKING NEWS: ROMNEY WINS UTAH PRIMARY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Eraserhead on June 26, 2012, 09:01:52 pm
Calling the NY GOP Senate Primary for Wendy Long.

Also calling my NY-19 for Julian Schreibman. It's a landslide :(


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 26, 2012, 09:08:02 pm
Calling the NY GOP Senate Primary for Wendy Long.

Also calling my NY-19 for Julian Schreibman. It's a landslide :(

Might be a little early for that.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Eraserhead on June 26, 2012, 09:08:26 pm
Looks like the alleged ''threat'' of Charles Barron taking NY-08 was a bogus one. Either that, or David Duke's endorsement nuked him. He's getting clobbered 3-1.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on June 26, 2012, 09:14:24 pm
Hatch with 69.9% early. Almost all is from Salt Lake.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 26, 2012, 09:18:43 pm
:D


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: mondale84 on June 26, 2012, 09:19:56 pm
Wendy Long is wiping the floor with Bob Turner in NY...guess not a game-changer after all...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on June 26, 2012, 09:32:01 pm
Looks like the alleged ''threat'' of Charles Barron taking NY-08 was a bogus one. Either that, or David Duke's endorsement nuked him. He's getting clobbered 3-1.

Yeah, that one is over.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Eraserhead on June 26, 2012, 09:33:54 pm
Rangel lives! G'bless.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Eraserhead on June 26, 2012, 09:54:59 pm
No close races (or at least no close ones that I care about). Lame!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 26, 2012, 09:56:31 pm
No close races (or at least no close ones that I care about). Lame!

The next close one will probably be the Missoura GOP Senate primary, but that's not till August.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 26, 2012, 10:49:57 pm
So Barron gets wiped out, Rangel and Hatch win easily.

Next up: Texas Senate runoff, but we have a thread for that.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on June 26, 2012, 10:51:46 pm
Why did Long dominate upstate so much, when she is from the city just like Turner?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 26, 2012, 10:58:33 pm
Auston Johnson is narrowly losing reelection for Auditor with half the precincts in. My family voted for him. He's been in office for 17 years.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: mondale84 on June 26, 2012, 10:59:02 pm
Why did Long dominate upstate so much, when she is from the city just like Turner?

She's actually from upstate originally.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Svensson on June 27, 2012, 12:02:33 am
I derive an inexplicable joy from the sight of random incumbents like Sullivan getting booted. Speaking of which, to Hatch's win I have but one thing to say...

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Maxwell on June 27, 2012, 12:04:26 am
I derive an inexplicable joy from the sight of random incumbents like Sullivan getting booted. Speaking of which, to Hatch's win I have but one thing to say...

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

Hatch is god awful. But Sullivan is from my district, and I'm so happy he's out now. That drunkard  will no longer be in congress!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Zioneer on June 27, 2012, 12:28:04 am
Auston Johnson is narrowly losing reelection for Auditor with half the precincts in. My family voted for him. He's been in office for 17 years.

Yeah, and he's losing to someone who isn't even certified to be an account. John Dougall (who will most certainly win in November) is a politican through and through who will needlessly politicize the job of Utah state Auditor.

Other Utah primaries of note; Donna McAleer trashed Ryan Combe in the Democratic primary for Utah's 1st district, and will go on to face Rob Bishop (and be thrashed herself, because Rob Bishop is the ultimate Utah politician). For the Republican Attorney General primary, John Swallow smashed Sean Reyes. Swallow was (along with his boss Mark Shurtleff) not only responsible for ultra-politicizing the Attorney General's office, but also key in suing the Feds over Obamacare and state control of public lands.

In the Salt Lake County GOP Mayoral Primary (important because Salt Lake County has about half of Utah's residents), it looks like Mark Crockett beat West Valley Mayor Mike Winder by 200 votes. There might be a recount, but if there isn't, Crockett will face Ben McAdams in November. This is interesting, because Crockett has never been a mayor, and was voted out of his Salt Lake County Council seat after one term. From what I understand, Crockett is a Tea Party type, very conservative and a bit of an ideological zealot who doesn't play nice with others. Winder was an establishment type Republican who had a scandal recently where he wrote pro-Winder articles in the Deseret News under a false name (Richard Burwash). Fun fact: Ben McAdams jokingly claimed that Richard Burwash endorsed him. Either way, Salt Lake County tends to go Democratic (unlike the rest of Utah), so I predict a McAdams win in the general election.

As for Hatch... he's too far-right for my tastes, so you can imagine how I felt about Liljenquist. Hatch will face Scott Howell in the face, and judging by Scott Howell's 30-point defeat to Hatch twelve years ago, you can guess how this will end.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 27, 2012, 12:31:37 am
I'm utterly shocked - Johnson will lose his bid to remain Utah's Auditor to a guy who isn't even a CPA, but a career politician. Wow...

The race for Salt Lake County mayor, GOP primary, is also crazy. Mark Crockett, whom I supported, leads by 200 our of 68,000 votes cast. All precincts reporting.

Edit: Hey Pioneer! :) You beat me too it, you hadn't posted yet when I began replying.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 27, 2012, 03:24:04 am
"Easily"? An incumbent winning by 5.odd is not "winning easily". That's "scraping by".


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Torie on June 27, 2012, 08:09:48 pm
"Easily"? An incumbent winning by 5.odd is not "winning easily". That's "scraping by".


It is down to 3% margin now for Rangel, with more votes left to count.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Zioneer on June 27, 2012, 11:37:54 pm
So it turns out that the Salt Lake County Mayoral primary isn't over yet; there's going to be a recount, the results of which will be released on July 12th. (http://www.ksl.com/index.php?nid=148&sid=21019648&title=winder-crockett-on-pins-and-needles-until-july) It's still likely that Crockett will win, but this effectively paralyzes both candidates from campaigning effectively against McAdams until they know who won. I hate to be so partisan, but as I personally know Ben McAdams and consider him my friend, anything that makes his election easier (thankfully, the County Mayor seat is actually fairly easily winnable for Democrats) makes me happy.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 27, 2012, 11:50:11 pm
Figured as much.

Pioneer, who do you think has a better chance in the GE against McAdams?

I think it'll be a close race - we'll have to see. ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Zioneer on June 28, 2012, 12:37:30 am
Figured as much.

Pioneer, who do you think has a better chance in the GE against McAdams?

I think it'll be a close race - we'll have to see. ;)

I honestly don't know; Winder had his Burwash problem, which is certainly easier to caricature and mock, but Crockett is reportedly hot-headed (which could lead to some gaffes), and doesn't play well with others (which could lead to a few republicans breaking ranks and going for McAdams). Crockett also doesn't have mayoral experience, which could hurt his argument. Both McAdams and Crockett do have experience working with Peter Corroon (Crockett as a County Councilman, and McAdams as a legal counsel/legislative worker), though.

Overall, I think that if Crockett wins, his political narrative will be stronger; he's a successful businessman who can characterize McAdams as an out-of-touch, way-too-liberal Salt Lake City Democrat who wants to grow government. McAdams can't characterize Crockett the way he could Winder; if Winder wins, McAdams can portray Winder as a sleazy lying "good old boys"-style Mayor who tries to make West Valley look better than it's actually doing.

However, McAdams can still give a pretty good campaign narrative if Crockett wins; he can say that a Democratic County Mayor has worked well for Salt Lake County these past 8 years, and that he'd continue Corroon's work while expanding on it through new policies (I predict that Salt Lake County will really like the anti-credit-card legislation he pushed while a state senator). He can also characterize Crockett as someone with very little experience in policy, as well as not being prepared for the job.

Either way, I agree with you; it'll be close, and probably closer than the Corroon campaigns (on account of McAdams being more liberal than Corroon); still, I think McAdams will win in the end.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 29, 2012, 08:40:47 pm
"Easily"? An incumbent winning by 5.odd is not "winning easily". That's "scraping by".

If that: seems that his majority is shrinking at a rather rapid rate...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 30, 2012, 12:29:41 pm
No interest? Let's put this slightly differently: Rangel may have lost. Things are very messy.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 30, 2012, 12:35:42 pm
Hopefully he does lose. Good riddance.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 30, 2012, 01:39:47 pm
They ought to have all votes in by now if they were at all competent (oh wait). What were all those late-counted ballots? Dubious absentees?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 30, 2012, 01:59:51 pm
They ought to have all votes in by now if they were at all competent (oh wait). What were all those late-counted ballots? Dubious absentees?

Almighty fyck up, it seems. Entire precincts - close to a fifth of those in the district apparently - were not counted at first for some reason. And there's still a load missing.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Meeker on July 01, 2012, 01:17:20 am
The final tally from election day (after misplacing the results of heavily-Dominican precincts for several days... hmmm, interesting) is Rangel ahead by 802. About 3000 absentee and provisional ballots left, but Espaillat would need something like 70% of those to win. So Rangel will likely be declared the victor, though I would not at all be surprised if further errors were discovered in the coming days.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Zioneer on July 11, 2012, 08:00:54 pm
Oh, and if anyone cares; turns out Mark Crockett was finally determined to have won the Salt Lake County GOP Mayoral primary. Now he and Ben McAdams will be duking it out to control a county that has half the population of Utah within it. This race is the only Utah race that consistently gives an equal chance to Democrats. It'll be fun.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 11, 2012, 09:01:09 pm
Oh, and if anyone cares; turns out Mark Crockett was finally determined to have won the Salt Lake County GOP Mayoral primary. Now he and Ben McAdams will be duking it out to control a county that has half the population of Utah within it. This race is the only Utah race that consistently gives an equal chance to Democrats. It'll be fun.
I care! :)

Also, I've been seeing a lot of Cooke signs around. He may break 40%! :P


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 11, 2012, 09:02:24 pm
Next up: Missouri, Connecticut and Wisconsin. MO is a total clusterfark, no idea who's going to win that primary.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Zioneer on July 11, 2012, 11:41:36 pm
Oh, and if anyone cares; turns out Mark Crockett was finally determined to have won the Salt Lake County GOP Mayoral primary. Now he and Ben McAdams will be duking it out to control a county that has half the population of Utah within it. This race is the only Utah race that consistently gives an equal chance to Democrats. It'll be fun.
I care! :)

Also, I've been seeing a lot of Cooke signs around. He may break 40%! :P

I know, right? I'll honestly be excited if Cooke gets within 10% of matching Herbert, since that means the narrative on Utah Democrats is weakening! If he gets within 5% of winning... Then we'll know that a new era in Utah politics is happening. And if by some fluke Cooke squeaks through a win, I will be happy beyond belief.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on July 16, 2012, 11:18:18 pm
Well, the NC runoff is today. As I said before, I'm pulling for Robert Pittenger in NC-09 R primary.

Jim Pendergraph has the potential to be worse than Myrick; his signs campaign even look exactly like hers did.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: smoltchanov on July 17, 2012, 03:09:31 am
Well, the NC runoff is today. As I said before, I'm pulling for Robert Pittenger in NC-09 R primary.

Jim Pendergraph has the potential to be worse than Myrick; his signs campaign even look exactly like hers did.

If i remember correctly - Pittenger is very conservative state Senator, and Pendegraph is former Democrat. Is it possible to be "more conservative"?)))))


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on July 17, 2012, 01:41:23 pm
On a second look, I've decided to support Pendergraph.

I just went to vote with my mom (she's a registered Republican). I told her to vote for Pendergraph for Congress and Jim Gurley for Lt. Gov. (because he was polling worse against Linda Coleman).


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on July 17, 2012, 09:41:40 pm
On a second look, I've decided to support Pendergraph.

I just went to vote with my mom (she's a registered Republican). I told her to vote for Pendergraph for Congress and Jim Gurley for Lt. Gov. (because he was polling worse against Linda Coleman).

Well, bad night for me...

Pendergraph actually won the Mecklenburg portion of NC-09 by about 3 points. Pittenger cleaned house in the Union and Iredell parts though.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 07, 2012, 07:21:37 pm
Missouri Senate primary results on Politico:

http://www.politico.com/

Steelman has about 200 votes, which puts her in an early lead.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 07, 2012, 07:22:14 pm
You mean here.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Senate/2012/Primary/MO


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 07, 2012, 07:23:47 pm
You mean here.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Senate/2012/Primary/MO

Either link works for me, though yours has a map.

Steelman 47%
Akin 23%
Brunner 23%

But that's with 0.1% reporting.  :P


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 07, 2012, 07:30:30 pm
Now Brunner 33, Steelman 31, Akin 29. This'll be a while.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 07, 2012, 07:44:41 pm
Akin 42, Brunner 34, Steelman 21 with 0.4% in. Why? STL, at least with less than 1% in. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 07, 2012, 07:57:09 pm
1% in: Akin 36, Brunner 32, Steelman 27.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Supersonic on August 07, 2012, 08:08:00 pm
I've got my fingers crossed for Steelman.

So long as Akin doesn't win though, it's okay.

Akin 34 Brunner 32 Steelman 28 at 1.5%.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 07, 2012, 08:10:11 pm
Akin's lead narrows considerably, but still very few votes in:

Akin 34.2%
Brunner 34.0%
Steelman 28.6%


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 07, 2012, 08:12:47 pm
I originally supported Steelman but now support Brunner. Biggest lead, most $$$. Akin is another Berg who'd have to be dragged across the finish line. Depends, as always, who turns out where.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Brittain33 on August 07, 2012, 08:13:03 pm
Bentivolio has a nice lead over Cassis so far.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Nhoj on August 07, 2012, 08:16:02 pm
Conyers in first with only 38% in very early results.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 07, 2012, 08:19:04 pm
Akin's lead down to 12 votes.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 07, 2012, 08:19:35 pm
Will this be another Iowa caucus?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 07, 2012, 08:29:44 pm
5% in: Akin 34, Brunner/Steelman 30.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 07, 2012, 08:31:12 pm
Poor Hansen Clarke.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Jbrase on August 07, 2012, 09:22:31 pm
Stabenow just won re-election. Congrats Michigan GOP.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 07, 2012, 09:25:04 pm
40% of the vote in in Missouri, and it's:

Akin 34%
Steelman 32%
Brunner 29%


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 07, 2012, 09:25:22 pm
Stabenow just won re-election. Congrats Michigan GOP.

Really Astounding Call In Swing Michigan



Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 09:42:26 pm
Akin up by 13,000 with 51% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 07, 2012, 09:44:34 pm
Margin down to less than 5,000 with 53% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 09:46:47 pm
Akin up 20,359 with 67% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 07, 2012, 09:47:03 pm
:(


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 09:49:42 pm
:(

Almost all of St. Louis County is in at least, but its two big suburban counties are not.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 09:50:58 pm
St. Charles came in and Akin is now up over 30,000.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 07, 2012, 09:52:14 pm
...and Steelman is down to third.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on August 07, 2012, 09:55:48 pm
MI-14 kinda sucked...Peters did run a much better campaign though.

Maybe Clarke will run for something in the future....


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 09:56:54 pm
72.5% in, same margin.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Talleyrand on August 07, 2012, 09:58:30 pm
MI-14 kinda sucked...Peters did run a much better campaign though.

Maybe Clarke will run for something in the future....

Pretty obvious Peters is just using this as a stepping stone for higher office. I think he might even be gone the next cycle, so Clarke can run whenever he runs for something else.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Supersonic on August 07, 2012, 09:59:26 pm
Is it all over for Steelman and Brunner?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 07, 2012, 10:01:00 pm
The part of me who wants the most electable said Brunner. Every other ounce of me wanted Steelman. So, of course, Akin wins. :(


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:01:44 pm
Is it all over for Steelman and Brunner?

The only county with a large amount of votes still out that will go their way is Jackson, but it's already half in and Akin still has Jefferson County, so I'd wager that Akin's most likely going to win.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 07, 2012, 10:05:03 pm
Tmth: For the same reason Fischer did: stayed above the fray while the others mudslang. Which bodes well for TT next week in Badgerland.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on August 07, 2012, 10:05:50 pm
Another vote dump in MO-01..with 49.8%, Clay is up 61-36.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Supersonic on August 07, 2012, 10:06:22 pm
Is it all over for Steelman and Brunner?

The only county with a large amount of votes still out that will go their way is Jackson, but it's already half in and Akin still has Jefferson County, so I'd wager that Akin's most likely going to win.

-sigh- Bloody 'ell. :(

The part of me who wants the most electable said Brunner. Every other ounce of me wanted Steelman. So, of course, Akin wins. :(

My thoughts exactly.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on August 07, 2012, 10:09:56 pm
What is going on in MI-11?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Talleyrand on August 07, 2012, 10:11:51 pm
Steelman conceded to Akin just a while ago.

And the AP just called it for him.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Dave from Michigan on August 07, 2012, 10:34:09 pm
What is going on in MI-11?

Bentivolio is up 65-35 with 72% reporting, he won.



Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 07, 2012, 11:31:30 pm
The part of me who wants the most electable said Brunner. Every other ounce of me wanted Steelman. So, of course, Akin wins. :(

Wow...my sentiments exactly.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on August 07, 2012, 11:34:39 pm
What is going on in MI-11?

Bentivolio is up 65-35 with 72% reporting, he won.



Was Bentivolio the Paulite, or was that the write-in guy?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Zioneer on August 08, 2012, 12:43:38 am
The part of me who wants the most electable said Brunner. Every other ounce of me wanted Steelman. So, of course, Akin wins. :(

To be honest, I feel for you; every time I think about Jim Matheson, the same thing comes to mind.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on August 08, 2012, 12:55:43 am
Catwell is cruising ahead of Baumgartner 56-30 with 50% in.

In 2010, Murray got 46% to 34% for Rossi, IIRC.

Inslee is up 47-43 over McKenna.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: morgieb on August 08, 2012, 02:00:53 am
What is going on in MI-11?

Bentivolio is up 65-35 with 72% reporting, he won.



Was Bentivolio the Paulite, or was that the write-in guy?

Write-in guy was establishment, Bentivolio is the Paulite.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on August 08, 2012, 03:42:24 am
Russ Carnahan lost 63-34...not a great way to go out.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 08, 2012, 12:56:33 pm
But deserved.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (8/11 - HI)
Post by: cinyc on August 11, 2012, 10:53:34 pm
Hawaii is holding their primaries today.  If I've done the time zone math right, polls were supposed to close in 10 minutes, but polling places on the Big Island are being held open until 7:30 local time due to irregularities in opening the polls this morning.  That means we likely won't get results until then, which should translate to 1:30 AM Eastern, 10:30 PM Pacific.  

The big race is the Democratic Senate primary, where Maize Hirono faces Ed Case and others.  Hirono should win.  There's also a Democratic primary to replace Hirono in HI-02.  KHON's website only shows results for former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann and Honolulu City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard, so I assume that they are the frontrunners.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 11, 2012, 10:56:57 pm
Case going down will be nice. :)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on August 12, 2012, 12:16:26 am
Hirono go!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2012, 12:34:02 am
Results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/HI_US_Senate_0811.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

and

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/HI_US_House_0811.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

and

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/HI_Mayor_0811.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

and

http://hawaii.gov/elections/results/2012/primary


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 12, 2012, 12:39:08 am
So any time now, right?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 12, 2012, 12:51:25 am
So any time now, right?

Yes.  Polling sites are held open until the last person on line before 7:30 votes, and as of a few minutes ago, KHON was reporting that state elections officials didn't know if that happened yet on the Big Island.  No results will be reported until all polls are closed.

Polls on other islands nominally closed at 6:00PM, but because of the on line rule, Kauai's polls closed at 6:15 p.m., followed by Maui (6:20 p.m.) and Oahu (6:45 p.m.).

Hawaii media outlets (some with livestreaming broadcasts):

http://www.khon2.com
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/
http://www.kitv.com/
http://www.staradvertiser.com/

Edited to add: KHON reports that the Hawaii County Clerk says some polls on the Big Island haven't closed yet.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 12, 2012, 01:04:02 am
100% of Oahu and 99% of Kauai about to be reported.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 12, 2012, 01:06:26 am
Hirono 57-Case 40


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 12, 2012, 01:07:20 am
HI-02 (D)
GABBARD, Tulsi 23,978 49.2%
HANNEMANN, Mufi 18,409 37.8%

Djou and Hanabusa handily win the HI-01 primaries.  Crowley appears to be the Republican sacrificial lamb in HI-02.  But, as realisticidealist pointed out, it's mainly absentees so far.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 12, 2012, 01:08:09 am
Cayetano leads in mayoral race with 44% to Caldwell's 31%. All are from absentees so far.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2012, 01:15:07 am
Hirono 57-Case 40

:)

Also, Democrats are destroying Lingle in turnout.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on August 12, 2012, 01:51:03 am
Hirono 57-Case 40

:)

Also, Democrats are destroying Lingle in turnout.

To be fair, the GOP primary was effectively uncontested (Lingle has 93% against a ton of nonames)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on August 12, 2012, 03:03:26 am
Hirono 57-Case 40

:)

Also, Democrats are destroying Lingle in turnout.

To be fair, the GOP primary was effectively uncontested (Lingle has 93% against a ton of nonames)

And, this is, 'ya know, Hawaii.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on August 12, 2012, 03:04:35 am
Hirono gets the check mark next to her name; with 70% in, she's up 58-41.

If this holds, the poll from Ward Research (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156514.0) is looking very accurate, as it had Hirono winning 55-37 in the primary.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on August 12, 2012, 03:51:41 am
Tulsi Gabbard vs Kawika Crowley (a man by the way) must be the most oddly firstnamed race in Congressional history.
Incidentally, Tulsi and three of her four siblings have Hindu first names but apparently no Indian ancestry - seems to be three quarters White and a quarter Samoan (also, she is fairly young and was the bluedoggish person in the primary race.) Kawika is a crazy but definitely not (http://kawika4congress.com/politicalstand.html) a standard-issue crazy (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQKBmAJ66K0).



Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Talleyrand on August 12, 2012, 04:40:29 am
Tulsi Gabbard vs Kawika Crowley (a man by the way) must be the most oddly firstnamed race in Congressional history.
Incidentally, Tulsi and three of her four siblings have Hindu first names but apparently no Indian ancestry - seems to be three quarters White and a quarter Samoan (also, she is fairly young and was the bluedoggish person in the primary race.) Kawika is a crazy but definitely not (http://kawika4congress.com/politicalstand.html) a standard-issue crazy (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQKBmAJ66K0).



She wasn't the bluedoggish person in the race. That was Mufi Hanneman, although Gabbard had some controversy regarding her past opposition to gay marriage and ties to socially conservative organizations (including her father). However, she addressed these issues by indicating she now supports gay marriage. I believe she gave an apology for her past views, but I don't remember.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on August 12, 2012, 04:43:19 am
Meh, maybe I should have glanced at his stances as well.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Meeker on August 12, 2012, 12:55:59 pm
Gabbard would be the first Hindu in Congress. Also the first female combat veteran (along with Tammy Duckworth should she win).


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 12, 2012, 01:53:50 pm
No one expected Case to be remotely competitive with Hirono anyways.

Next up: CT/FL/WI. WI is a complete coin flip, the others are foregone conclusions. Anyone want to guess who'll get a bigger % in CT? .


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: smoltchanov on August 12, 2012, 11:02:51 pm
No one expected Case to be remotely competitive with Hirono anyways.

Next up: CT/FL/WI. WI is a complete coin flip, the others are foregone conclusions. Anyone want to guess who'll get a bigger % in CT? .

Still there are interesting races in CT. For example - both parties primaries in CT-05


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on August 12, 2012, 11:06:54 pm
Well Gabbard is easily going to be the most attractive person in Congress when she gets in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 12, 2012, 11:09:00 pm
Ryan was quite effusive in praising TT at tonight's Waukesha rally but avoided a de jure endorsement. On top of Walker's de facto endorsement last week.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: smoltchanov on August 12, 2012, 11:17:36 pm
Ryan was quite effusive in praising TT at tonight's Waukesha rally but avoided a de jure endorsement. On top of Walker's de facto endorsement last week.

May be Republicans will, finally, choose most electable, not the most conservative, as usual, candidate in their primary


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on August 13, 2012, 01:41:40 am
No one expected Case to be remotely competitive with Hirono anyways.

Next up: CT/FL/WI. WI is a complete coin flip, the others are foregone conclusions. Anyone want to guess who'll get a bigger % in CT? .

Wonderful; lets get the WI primary over...I'm sick of seeing all these Neumann ads on every website I go to!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 13, 2012, 09:49:45 am
It was my personal thought that Ryan was going to endorse Thompson some time last week but other things obviously got in the way. I still thought his selection would help Thompson because the Romney team would nudge him to offer some praise/a subtle endorsement. This should be enough.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 13, 2012, 09:53:16 am
It was my personal thought that Ryan was going to endorse Thompson some time last week but other things obviously got in the way. I still thought his selection would help Thompson because the Romney team would nudge him to offer some praise/a subtle endorsement. This should be enough.

Neumann's a personal friend of his. But yeah, this should be enough.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on August 13, 2012, 01:04:51 pm
Gabbard would be the first Hindu in Congress. Also the first female combat veteran (along with Tammy Duckworth should she win).
I only skimmed this, and it is an attack piece, but interesting nonetheless.

http://www.sunnewscorp.com/component/easyblog/entry/tulsi-gabbard-the-curiously-conservative-and-nepotistic-network-of-a-democratic-candidate.html

An ISKCON ("Hare Krishna") splinter? Cool with me.

I did find this (http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-08-12/news/33167441_1_hindu-activist-hindu-religion-hindu-temples) for (sort of) confirmation that it's Butler's group they're referring to when she and her mother call themself Hindus - or rather the sentence "Tulsi's spiritual lineage is the Brahma Madhva Gaudiya Sampradaya", which is the nerdese name for the Hare Krishnas' theological tradition, also used prominently on Butler's website (http://www.scienceofidentityfoundation.net/about-us/jagad-guru-siddhaswarupananda-paramahamsa-chris-butler.html).


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on August 13, 2012, 07:59:11 pm
So our primaries are tomorrow and as usual, there's nothing particularly interesting. The only race worth watching is the MN-08 DFL primary, and I haven't followed that as closely as I should've. I do want to see what slate of candidates we get for the state leg though.

But the candidates in MN-08:

Tarryl Clark - Carpetbagger but probably not a big issue (Cravaack's from the wrong part of the district too), former State Senator who ran against Bachmann, endorsees unsurprisingly come from the western part of the district, has some Washington establishment support but the Iron Range machines matter more.
Rick Nolan - Former Congressman from over 30 years ago that probably no one remembers. Apparently the only person outside of Connecticut besides WalterMitty to endorse Chris Dodd in 2008 for President, also endorsed Kennedy in 1980. Personally I wouldn't support him as he's too old to be starting what's essentially a new Congressional career but he does seem to have a bit of a following and won the DFL endorsement.
Jeff Anderson - Duluth City Council President, lots of other endorsements from Duluth and the mining towns.

I'd have to call Nolan the favorite just because of the endorsement and machine politics, though I'd likely support Clark. Of course I'd support any over Cravaack, and any of them most likely will beat him. Regional patterns will be quite interesting...

BTW I need to look up who's best for the School Board seats and competitive judgeships now...


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: shua on August 13, 2012, 10:53:40 pm
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/08/13/northeast-gop-hopeless-choices-linda-mcmahon-chris-shays/
Quote
But though there is little reason to believe McMahon can do better the second time around, state party leaders have embraced her rather than Chris Shays, a longtime member of the House of Representatives from Fairfield County. Though he is eminently better qualified to sit in the Senate, many GOP stalwarts disdain him as the quintessential RINO whose liberal stands on social issues, gun control and campaign finance are anathema to conservatives. Faced with a choice between such a RINO (albeit one who was a loyal member of the Republican caucus in the House for decades and something of a fiscal conservative) whom polls show to be a far formidable contender in November and a disreputable and certain loser in McMahon, most Republicans appear to prefer the latter.

Yet oddly enough, Shays appears to be far more supportive of GOP vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan than McMahon. As the Hartford Courant reported, when asked about Ryans stands on entitlement reform, the supposed Tea Partier tried to have it both ways. She claimed to like Ryans general ideas but disavowed his budget and said she would oppose any plan that touched Medicare. By contrast, the RINO Shays made no attempt to distance himself from Ryan.


http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/08/13/chris-shays-last-stand-the-gop-passes-on-a-connecticut-moderate.html
Quote
Despite the polls, Shays remains defiantly hopeful, pointing to the fact that his record is much more in line with the traditional Connecticut Republican base and that in a mid-August primary, only about 20 percent of registered Republicans are likely to turn out to vote. Her support is broader than I would like, but it's paper-thin, Shays says. I'm hoping that there will be a group of people who will say you know what, we don't like so much money in politics, I have a chance to prove that I don't like it by voting against someone who's literally trying to buy an election. I hope there'll be people who will say, if Chris Shays wins this election, this is going be a Scott Brown race.

So if I win this primary, I will not be surprised. Evidently, everybody else will, but I won't be.

hoping for an upset tomorrow.  I disagree with Shays on a number of issues, but he's a thoughtful, sensible guy, - and stands a chance of at least being competitive in the general.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 13, 2012, 11:10:21 pm
CT is a decoy race, not a winnable one. McMahon has the $$$ and marketing skills to keep it at least somewhat competitive. There is no chance in hell of a Republican breaching that federal PVI wall even in a 2010 environment. I've liked McMahon since 2010 and will take her over Shays anyday. Connecticut is as Democratic as California (D+7), no Republican can win a Senate race in either state.

Also LOL at the polls thing. PPP has Murphy up 47-38 over Shays and 50-42 over McMahon. She'll be buying ads in the NYC market, something which Murphy can't do except in very short bursts. And that's the point- decoying, not winning.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 14, 2012, 11:02:04 am
It looks like all four Wisconsin Republican candidates are living in the same area of the state (southeast quadrant). Any idea who will be favored in the other areas? Also, how much will the other candidates be hurt or benefit from residing in or near Neumann's old Congressional district? I assume Neumann will be strongest there. Will he be able to swamp the others or are they getting the last laugh by biting into his lead?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 11:31:49 am
It looks like all four Wisconsin Republican candidates are living in the same area of the state (southeast quadrant). Any idea who will be favored in the other areas? Also, how much will the other candidates be hurt or benefit from residing in or near Neumann's old Congressional district? I assume Neumann will be strongest there. Will he be able to swamp the others or are they getting the last laugh by biting into his lead?

You mean Ryan's district? ;) Neumann won by 4 in '94 and 2 in '96, don't overestimate the homeboy factor. He does have some late momentum but on the flip side both he and Hovde have been sliming each other while TT has been above the fray.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 14, 2012, 12:34:14 pm
It looks like all four Wisconsin Republican candidates are living in the same area of the state (southeast quadrant). Any idea who will be favored in the other areas? Also, how much will the other candidates be hurt or benefit from residing in or near Neumann's old Congressional district? I assume Neumann will be strongest there. Will he be able to swamp the others or are they getting the last laugh by biting into his lead?

You mean Ryan's district? ;)

Yeah, that too. :P  Boy, that area (and Wisconsin as a whole) is the center of the universe in American politics these days.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 01:16:59 pm
It looks like all four Wisconsin Republican candidates are living in the same area of the state (southeast quadrant). Any idea who will be favored in the other areas? Also, how much will the other candidates be hurt or benefit from residing in or near Neumann's old Congressional district? I assume Neumann will be strongest there. Will he be able to swamp the others or are they getting the last laugh by biting into his lead?

Here are my guesses based off of the recent polling:

Thompson: Being from Elroy in Juneau County, he will probably do the best in the western part of the state that borders the Mississippi River. This is the area of the state that his brother, Ed Thompson, did the best in when he ran as a Libertarian in the 2002 governor race. Here is the map:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/img.php?year=2002&off=5&elect=0&fips=55&evt=&type=map&st=WI) (http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2002&fips=55&f=0&off=5&elect=0)

Hovde: He is actually from and currently resides in Madison. Before I moved to DC, all I saw driving around the county was Hovde signs. I could definitely see him doing well with the Republicans in Dane County (yes there are some, lol) and Democrats that cross over to vote in the Republican Primary with the efforts of sabotaging Thompson.

Neumann: I would also assume that he would do the best in his old Congressional district, but primarily in Walworth County, which is his home county and the suburbs of Kenosha and Racine. I could also see him doing well in south Waukesha County as it is really close to his hometown of East Troy.

Fitzgerald: Looking at his poll numbers I would guess that the only county he has a chance of carrying is his home county of Dodge.

The two most important areas are obviously going to be the Milwaukee suburbs in Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha and the Fox River Valley (Appleton, Green Bay, Menahsa, Neenah and Oshkosh). I have no idea who's going to win theses areas, but whoever does will win the race.     


   


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 14, 2012, 05:44:45 pm
Also LOL at the polls thing. PPP has Murphy up 47-38 over Shays and 50-42 over McMahon. She'll be buying ads in the NYC market, something which Murphy can't do except in very short bursts. And that's the point- decoying, not winning.

McMahon is already up in the NYC TV market - and attacking Murphy on his House committee attendance record.  She'd rather face Bysewicz in the general.  I haven't seen any ads for any of the other candidates on NYC OTA TV.  If/when he wins the primary, Murphy will have to have some presence in the NYC TV market or risk falling behind in Fairfield County.  Blumenthal had some ads in the NYC market the last time around.  Not nearly as many as McMahon, who was on so often that it got repetitive, but enough to fight back.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 14, 2012, 07:00:17 pm
With about 20% of Florida in, Nelson leads 80-20, Mack leads 60-20 over Weldon.  More votes have been cast in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 14, 2012, 07:09:17 pm
Ugh...


@davecatanese: Bad news for Thompson? Campaign email blares: "Election officials are adjusting their election projections, and it's DOWN from 20%" #WISEn


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 07:17:04 pm
Keep our fingers crossed. Mack has been projected the winner in FL. Murphy is up 63-37 on Bysiewicz and McMahon's up 73-27 on Shays. That one should be called soon.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 14, 2012, 07:23:52 pm
With less than 10% of the Connecticut vote in, McMahon leads Shays with 3/4ths of the vote; Murphy leads Bysiewicz with 2/3rds of the vote.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 07:31:07 pm
Mica trounces Adams in FL-9. Ugh. CT unchanged at 18% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 14, 2012, 07:45:02 pm
McMahon projected winner of CT-GOP Senate primary by the AP.  Murphy hasn't been projected the winner on the Democratic side yet - but it's pretty clear he will win.  No shockers here.  


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 07:45:30 pm
McMahon projected the GOP winner.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 07:52:54 pm
More importantly he's running way ahead of the Dems combined. The Senate turnout is also good.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 14, 2012, 07:54:55 pm
Murphy projected winner of CT-Sen-D.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 07:55:09 pm
Murphy projected the Dem winner.

WI polls close in 5 min.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: AndrewTX on August 14, 2012, 08:14:21 pm
As I said on my facebook, I'd like to say Congrats to Senator-elect Murphy.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 14, 2012, 08:16:32 pm
Thompson leads first votes from Fond du Lac County.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:19:36 pm
TT 37, EH 32, MN 23, JF 9 with 0.5% in. That's from Dane.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 14, 2012, 08:22:03 pm
TT 37, EH 32, MN 23, JF 9 with 0.5% in. That's from Dane.

It's about half Dane, half Fond du Lac. Only 2.4% in from Dane. Hovde winning Milwaukee so far.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:22:58 pm
Which is a problem for TT IIRC.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 08:23:36 pm
I have a feeling the county map for this race is going to be crazy.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 14, 2012, 08:25:11 pm
Hovde winning big in Green Bay.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:27:14 pm
Hovde 38, Thompson 28, Neumann 24.

Gass: Should Thompsonians be worried at this stage?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:30:27 pm
Hovde 36, Thompson 31, Neumann 26. I'm worried because TT's getting slaughtered rurally and he isn't competitive enough in Milwaukee.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 14, 2012, 08:31:11 pm
I have a feeling Thompson is going to have some wackily high percentages in some small western counties.

EDIT: I'd wait until we get some of the Milwaukee suburbs before jumping to conclusions.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 08:32:05 pm
Hovde 38, Thompson 28, Neumann 24.

Gass: Should Thompsonians be worried at this stage?

I'd be a bit worried because if the results coming in from Milwaukee are representative of the Milwaukee Suburbs, Thompson is going to have to do extremely well in the other parts of the state. Losing the Fox River Valley won't help either.   


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 14, 2012, 08:33:16 pm
It's going to be tight.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:34:20 pm
Now 35-32 Hovde, Thompson's doing well in the west.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:37:57 pm
33-32 Hovde. Iowa caucuses all over again?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 14, 2012, 08:40:05 pm
Hovde's lead down ton 0.5%.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:40:10 pm
Thompson has pulled ahead in Milwaukee. 32.4-31.9 Hovde.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 14, 2012, 08:40:29 pm
33-32 Hovde. Iowa caucuses all over again?

Hovde is doing very well in fox valley... Too soon to tell.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 14, 2012, 08:41:38 pm
And Cliff Stearns has lost his primary race, but, why? What has he done wrong?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:42:45 pm
34-32 Hovde with some FV returns.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:43:35 pm
 Hovde is leading in the Milwaukee suburbs while Thompson leads in the city proper.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: krazen1211 on August 14, 2012, 08:45:04 pm
Hovde is leading in the Milwaukee suburbs while Thompson leads in the city proper.

County proper you mean? Those precincts don't look like city precincts. Too many voters.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 14, 2012, 08:45:46 pm
Neumann's leading in Price County. Woot.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:45:54 pm
Oops. Now 33-32 again with 9% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Supersonic on August 14, 2012, 08:46:39 pm
Wow, I totally forgot the Wisconsin primary was today.

Is there a link to the results as they come in?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:47:09 pm
Here you go.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Senate/2012/Primary/WI


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 08:48:44 pm
Marathon County (Wausau) coming in big Hovde.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:49:13 pm
31.9-31.6 Thompson. His Milwaukee County margin is dwindling with every report.

Gass: How important?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 14, 2012, 08:51:15 pm
31.9-31.6 Thompson. His Milwaukee County margin is dwindling with every report.

Gass: How important?

We need to see Waukesha


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:53:15 pm
32-31.4 Thompson.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: mondale84 on August 14, 2012, 08:54:02 pm
31.9-31.6 Thompson. His Milwaukee County margin is dwindling with every report.

Gass: How important?

We need to see Waukesha

Do we want to take bets on when it starts reporting? :)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 08:55:21 pm
31.9-31.6 Thompson. His Milwaukee County margin is dwindling with every report.

Gass: How important?

I wouldn't say its huge, but it is another area of the state and a decent metro area that Hovde is doing well in. This entire race could hinge on the Milwaukee suburbs.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:55:34 pm
32-31.5 Hovde.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on August 14, 2012, 08:56:14 pm
Fitzgerald is leading in Dodge.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 14, 2012, 08:56:30 pm
31.9-31.6 Thompson. His Milwaukee County margin is dwindling with every report.

Gass: How important?

We need to see Waukesha

Do we want to take bets on when it starts reporting? :)

Depends on who the lady likes.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 08:59:15 pm
Fitzgerald is leading in Dodge.

One of my predictions is actually holding true! To bad my my others, other then Thompson doing well in the western part of the state, have sucked =p


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 08:59:55 pm
31.8-31.7% separate them, about 200 votes.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 14, 2012, 09:00:42 pm
Waukesha so far is a tie with 10 votes separating Hovde and Thompson.  14% in, per the county's website:

SCATTERING received 12
JEFF FITZGERALD received 2,512
TOMMY G. THOMPSON received 4,355
MARK W. NEUMANN received 2,071
ERIC HOVDE received 4,365


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 14, 2012, 09:01:51 pm
Hovde leading in Washington County.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 09:03:04 pm
Sheboygan and Manitowoc County coming in for Hovde.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 14, 2012, 09:05:17 pm
CT-05 winners are Esty (D) and Roraback (R).


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 14, 2012, 09:06:09 pm
Sheboygan and Manitowoc County coming in for Hovde.

Hovde doing well in Ron Johnson territory.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 09:06:42 pm
Surprised that Neumann is doing better in the Northwest then in is former Southeast congressional district.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:09:13 pm
Neumann is pukeworthy IMO.

Thompson leads 32.5-32.1. Ozaukee starting to tighten a bit in his favor.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 14, 2012, 09:09:24 pm
Thompson regains the lead with 20% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:11:31 pm
Thompson regains the lead with 20% in.

Let's hope that MLS, Ryan and Walker were right and PPP is wrong.

Waukesha tied as cinyc said. Thompson now leads 32.8-31.8.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 14, 2012, 09:12:08 pm
I think Hovde will win by 1.5 points =[


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 14, 2012, 09:12:20 pm
Everything indicates this won't be called for quite a while.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:12:52 pm
Recount?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 09:13:25 pm
If the Milwaukee suburbs narrow or flip, then I think Thompson will end up winning.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 14, 2012, 09:13:43 pm
Recount?

From your lips to gods ears.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 14, 2012, 09:14:49 pm
25% in.

Thompson   33.1%   59,123
Hovde   31.6%   56,533
Neumann   22.4%   39,996
Fitzgerald   12.9%   23,074


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:14:49 pm
How small does the margin have to be for an automatic recount?

Thompson up 33.4-31.4.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 14, 2012, 09:20:58 pm
How small does the margin have to be for an automatic recount?

A recount is free if the vote is within 0.5 points.  I don't think it's automatic, though.  A candidate has to ask for it.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:23:14 pm
Thompson up 33.7-31 with 31% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:28:20 pm
Thompson now up 33.8-30.8 with 34% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 14, 2012, 09:29:36 pm
With 36% of Waukesha reporting, Thompson is very slightly ahead in the county:

SCATTERING received 13
JEFF FITZGERALD received 5,969
TOMMY G. THOMPSON received 10,172
MARK W. NEUMANN received 4,771
ERIC HOVDE received 9,983


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:30:40 pm
Looking good for now.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 14, 2012, 09:31:53 pm
TT pulling it out.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:31:57 pm
Thompson's lead goes back to 33.4-31. Waukesha hasn't updated on my Politico map for some reason.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:32:46 pm
TT pulling it out.

You sure? :D


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 14, 2012, 09:33:11 pm
Both Hovde and Thompson have large chunks of vote left out still. Still too early to call, but Thompson is in a good position at the moment.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 14, 2012, 09:33:54 pm
Thompson's lead goes back to 33.4-31. Waukesha hasn't updated on my Politico map for some reason.

AP hasn't updated their Waukesha results yet.  I'm getting my numbers from the county's website.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Thomas D on August 14, 2012, 09:34:17 pm
Well going to bed now. I'll assume TT won and that means Tammy Baldwin likely won't be our first openly gay senator. :(


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RI on August 14, 2012, 09:35:09 pm
Green Bay just finished and Hovde is down by 1.5%. That hurts his chances.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 14, 2012, 09:35:45 pm
44% in



Thompson   33.0%   91,513
Hovde   31.5%   87,430
Neumann   22.9%   63,441
Fitzgerald   12.6%   34,996


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:36:16 pm
TT's lead diminishing again, but he's ahead in Waukesha.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Supersonic on August 14, 2012, 09:36:55 pm
My gut says that Thompson will win this.  Although, that probably means he will lose. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: rbt48 on August 14, 2012, 09:37:12 pm
One heck of a dog fight.  I see that all of Brown County (Green Bay) is in now.  Hovde bested Thompson by 6,500 there.  Perhaps that is his home county.  I don't think the race will be called anytime soon.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:44:43 pm
Thompson up 33.6-31 with 51% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 09:46:35 pm
One heck of a dog fight.  I see that all of Brown County (Green Bay) is in now.  Hovde bested Thompson by 6,500 there.  Perhaps that is his home county.  I don't think the race will be called anytime soon.

Hovde is actually from Madison


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:47:16 pm
54% in, no changes.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 14, 2012, 09:48:59 pm
Hovde is actually from Madison

...and losing Dane County 33%-48%.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on August 14, 2012, 09:50:31 pm
55%, Thompson beating Hovde 33.5-30.9 with Nuemann a distant third.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 09:51:08 pm
Hovde is actually from Madison

...and losing Dane County 33%-48%.

Yup, one of my wrong predictions =(


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 14, 2012, 09:52:01 pm
With 54% of Waukesha County in, Thompson maintains his slight lead there:

SCATTERING received 16
JEFF FITZGERALD received 8,925
TOMMY G. THOMPSON received 15,752
MARK W. NEUMANN received 7,266
ERIC HOVDE received 15,222
The total number of votes cast 47,181


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:52:30 pm
33.5-30.9 TT, 55% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on August 14, 2012, 09:53:09 pm
Hovde is actually from Madison

...and losing Dane County 33%-48%.

Yup, one of my wrong predictions =(

Hovde is dominating in the Green Bay area though...he's up 20 points in Brown county.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 09:54:49 pm
One remaining county that has yet to report with a lot of Republicans in it is the Twin City metro county of  St. Croix. That should benefit Thompson.  


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on August 14, 2012, 09:54:59 pm
And we're up to 58%....Thompson leading by almost 10,000 votes.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:55:14 pm
From Charlie Sykes' Twitter feed: "AP hasn't called the race yet, but sources on the ground are trending toward Thompson locking this up."

Thompson up 33.8-30.6 with 58% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 09:57:04 pm
I am surprised with the differences between Waukesha County and Washington/Ozaukee counties. Usually they vote in unison.   


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 09:57:04 pm
33.9-30.4 with 61% in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 10:00:21 pm
33.8-30.8 with 2/3 in.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 10:03:31 pm
34.3-30.5 with 73% in. Looks like Thompson wins.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Supersonic on August 14, 2012, 10:04:22 pm
The margin is getting wider. Thompson now on 34.3 to Hovde's 30.5.

Huzzar! :D


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 10:05:29 pm
This seat is Elephant.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: MasterJedi on August 14, 2012, 10:05:50 pm
Looks like Thompson has about locked in up. Sweet victory here in state for me and almost everyone I know who voted! My Aunt however is probably the only Fitzgerald supporter in the state. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 10:07:05 pm
Yep. This is 51. :D


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: THIS MACHINE CRUSHES REGRESSIVES on August 14, 2012, 10:08:05 pm
I was going to be enraged if the party pulled another Delaware. We can't keep luring top candidates into the races in blue states only for them to lose the primary to unelectable Tea Party guys. Thank god we didn't blow this one.

Now hopefully this seat will go GOP in the fall!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 10:08:40 pm
Neumann is about to concede.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: mondale84 on August 14, 2012, 10:09:05 pm
Yep. This is 51. :D

Yeah, no.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on August 14, 2012, 10:10:28 pm
Thompson still up 4 with 76% in...he's pretty much got it.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 10:10:34 pm
Neumann endorses Thompson in his concession speech.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 10:11:39 pm
Neumann = Perennial Loser 


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Scott on August 14, 2012, 10:12:28 pm
Where is everyone getting the live primary results and primary speeches from?  I've been looking for a while.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 10:13:14 pm
Neumann = Perennial Loser 

In both senses.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 10:13:42 pm
Where is everyone getting the live primary results and primary speeches from?  I've been looking for a while.

Speech news I'm getting from Charlie Sykes' Twitter feed. Results from Politico.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Senate/2012/Primary/WI


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 14, 2012, 10:14:08 pm
I completely forgot this was tonight. Nothing makes my night better than coming on here and finding out Thompson wins in Wisconsin! Another GOP pickup! Thank you WI Republicans! :)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 10:15:35 pm
Yeah, thanks guys. Also thanks to Ryan and Walker for their sly endorsements. :)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 10:18:09 pm
I still think it will be a toss up in November, but the results tonight definitely put it as a slight R toss up. 


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Supersonic on August 14, 2012, 10:18:34 pm
I bet Tammy Baldwin is watching this thinking "Ohhh Sh*t...", haha.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: MasterJedi on August 14, 2012, 10:24:26 pm
So to those that say money buys elections say about this one? Hovde raised more then double what Thompson did and still loses. Thompson goes into places he hasn't been in 14 years and still remembers people's names trumps the $$$ any day. Besides Thompson having an actual track record of getting things done.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 10:25:57 pm
I'll be interested to see the exit polls in November on what % of voters submit a Obama/Thompson ballot. There will a significant proportion and my guess is that Obama would have to get around his polling average of 5-6% for Baldwin to be close.  


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: MasterJedi on August 14, 2012, 10:27:37 pm
State Senator Lena Taylor (D) on TV: "Oh crap, Thompson won" she basically said she was really hoping Hovde won because Thompson has strong relationships in the state. Wouldn't come out and say it's tougher for Baldwin to win now but she said everything but that.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 14, 2012, 10:27:59 pm
I saw that LPAC will be donating to Tammy, obviously. In there statement announcing it, they stated that the Republicans were attacking her, and one of the reasons they gave as to why was because she was a lesbian.

Has anyone in the WI GOP been playing that card?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Scott on August 14, 2012, 10:28:28 pm
"What do Les Aspin, Peter Barca, Russ Feingold, Scott Walker and Tommy Thompson have in common? they've all defeated Mark Neuman.

Okay, I had to laugh at that one.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 14, 2012, 10:29:00 pm
AP calls it for Thompson.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on August 14, 2012, 10:29:07 pm
Yep. This is 51. :D

At best, it's seat 50.

Democrats pick up Maine and Massachusetts, but lose Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, and Wisconsin leaves the Senate at 50/50. Considering that the latter 4 are all coin flips at this point (and I admit, as is Mass), and you still have a Senate that remains in the balance.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 10:30:32 pm
So to those that say money buys elections say about this one? Hovde raised more then double what Thompson did and still loses. Thompson goes into places he hasn't been in 14 years and still remembers people's names trumps the $$$ any day. Besides Thompson having an actual track record of getting things done.

True, that helped, but if Hovde or Neumann had a one on one fight, Thompson would have won. That is the difference between Wisconsin and the many other states were the insurgent won.  


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on August 14, 2012, 10:31:28 pm
MN-08 is less than 30% in, but Nolan has an almost 10 point lead on Clark, and based on what's in I think he has it.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Vosem on August 14, 2012, 10:32:52 pm

Uh, yeah. You have this, MT, ND, MO, and NE make 5 Republican pickups as opposed to 1 sorta-D in ME. Then you have FL/VA/MA, which are all 50-50. Republicans are more likely to take the Senate than not, 50.5-49.5. They need to win at least 1 of the troika of 50-50s -- statistically speaking the chance of any party winning 3 given 50-50 races is 12.5%. That means there's an 87.5% chance the Republicans take at least 1 of those 3 races, and, unless you quibble on something else, Republicans are very likely to take the Senate.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 14, 2012, 10:33:19 pm
:)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on August 14, 2012, 10:33:52 pm
MN-08 is less than 30% in, but Nolan has an almost 10 point lead on Clark, and based on what's in I think he has it.

Its up to 43% and Nolan is up 42-36. Not insurmountable for Clark, but I still think Nolan wins.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 10:34:12 pm
I saw that LPAC will be donating to Tammy, obviously. In there statement announcing it, they stated that the Republicans were attacking her, and one of the reasons they gave as to why was because she was a lesbian.

Has anyone in the WI GOP been playing that card?

I've only seen one commercial up so far and it didn't address the issue. It also wasn't a very good ad because if you turned it off half way though you would think it was a Pro-Baldwin ad. I think this is in issue that Republicans will and should avoid as it would probably be a turn off to Independent voters in the state.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: MasterJedi on August 14, 2012, 10:38:24 pm
I saw that LPAC will be donating to Tammy, obviously. In there statement announcing it, they stated that the Republicans were attacking her, and one of the reasons they gave as to why was because she was a lesbian.

Has anyone in the WI GOP been playing that card?

I've only seen one commercial up so far and it didn't address the issue. It also wasn't a very good ad because if you turned it off half way though you would think it was a Pro-Baldwin ad. I think this is in issue that Republicans will and should avoid as it would probably be a turn off to Independent voters in the state.

From what I can tell nothing has been brought up about her being a lesbian, except by the liberal groups who are spending money on her behalf. It really doesn't seem that anyone cares that she's gay, it's more about "she's a liberal and we're not" race. I'm sure that the groups (not Baldwin herself) will try to bring it into the race though.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2012, 10:39:47 pm

Uh, yeah. You have this, MT, ND, MO, and NE make 5 Republican pickups as opposed to 1 sorta-D in ME. Then you have FL/VA/MA, which are all 50-50. Republicans are more likely to take the Senate than not, 50.5-49.5. They need to win at least 1 of the troika of 50-50s -- statistically speaking the chance of any party winning 3 given 50-50 races is 12.5%. That means there's an 87.5% chance the Republicans take at least 1 of those 3 races, and, unless you quibble on something else, Republicans are very likely to take the Senate.

As of now the only automatic Republican gain is in NE and probably MO while the same, probably, for the Democrats in ME. The rest (FL, IN, MT, ND, NV, VA, VI & WI) should be competitive.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Svensson on August 14, 2012, 10:41:54 pm
Democrats pick up Maine

What.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on August 14, 2012, 10:45:03 pm

King will more likely than not caucus with the Democrats. In 2010 he wrote a defense of Obama and how he should have been campaigning.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Svensson on August 14, 2012, 10:49:55 pm

King will more likely than not caucus with the Democrats. In 2010 he wrote a defense of Obama and how he should have been campaigning.

Ah, fair enough. I thought you meant a straight pickup.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: mondale84 on August 14, 2012, 10:52:56 pm
Uh, yeah. You have this, MT, ND, MO, and NE make 5 Republican pickups as opposed to 1 sorta-D in ME. Then you have FL/VA/MA, which are all 50-50. Republicans are more likely to take the Senate than not, 50.5-49.5. They need to win at least 1 of the troika of 50-50s -- statistically speaking the chance of any party winning 3 given 50-50 races is 12.5%. That means there's an 87.5% chance the Republicans take at least 1 of those 3 races, and, unless you quibble on something else, Republicans are very likely to take the Senate.

MT is still a pure tossup and so is ND thanks to your useless candidate Rick Berg. Also LOL at the idea that FL is 50/50.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Vosem on August 14, 2012, 11:02:07 pm
Uh, yeah. You have this, MT, ND, MO, and NE make 5 Republican pickups as opposed to 1 sorta-D in ME. Then you have FL/VA/MA, which are all 50-50. Republicans are more likely to take the Senate than not, 50.5-49.5. They need to win at least 1 of the troika of 50-50s -- statistically speaking the chance of any party winning 3 given 50-50 races is 12.5%. That means there's an 87.5% chance the Republicans take at least 1 of those 3 races, and, unless you quibble on something else, Republicans are very likely to take the Senate.

MT is still a pure tossup and so is ND thanks to your useless candidate Rick Berg. Also LOL at the idea that FL is 50/50.

I agree with you that Mack is favored, but I though I'd give Nelson the benefit of the doubt. Polling in MT has pretty consistently shown Rehberg leading Tester and although Berg is indeed useless RCP's page on ND shows the same thing, though apparently Heitkamp's released lots of favorable internals.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: smoltchanov on August 14, 2012, 11:14:19 pm
Day's impressions:

FL - Democrats squandered as little chances as they had in FL-02 (relatively liberal black can't win this district), Republicans reciprocated in FL-09 (they needed candiddate with appeal to minority vote), so Grayson is likely to get a new term in Congress. The biggest surprise (obviously) - apparent defeat of Stearns in FL-03

CT - Both Democrats and Republicans (big rarity these days) nominated the most moderate candidates here. So - it will be interesting in November. Esty is probably favored (especially with Obama on ballot and Murphy - McMahon Senate race), but 3rd party Donovan candidacy may be a BIG threat to her.

WI Again, on rare occasion these days, Republicans nominated their most electable (and conservative, but politically sane) candidate in Thompson, refusing to go for ultaconservative firebrands, so it must be very close in November.

MN -The most interesting race (MN-08) is still undecided, but Nolan will probably win. Not bad for his party.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: mondale84 on August 14, 2012, 11:16:39 pm
I agree with you that Mack is favored, but I though I'd give Nelson the benefit of the doubt. Polling in MT has pretty consistently shown Rehberg leading Tester and although Berg is indeed useless RCP's page on ND shows the same thing, though apparently Heitkamp's released lots of favorable internals.

SO much trolling it's hard to keep it all straight. Connie Sheen Mack is favored ?! ::) HAHAHAHAHA Biggest joke of the day. Also, Rehberg has been 1-2 points ahead or tied, that's not even a lean. As for ND, Heitkamp is making it close and Berg is too scared to release his internals.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: cinyc on August 14, 2012, 11:44:58 pm
CT Senate primary maps.  Winner (Murphy and McMahon) in green; loser in orange.  

Democratic Primary:
(http://i50.tinypic.com/2njwy7a.png)

Bysiewicz did best in the Quiet Corner, the Middletown area, and a few random towns in the Naugatuck Valley.  Bozrah was tied.

Republican Primary:
(http://i46.tinypic.com/2d0dzdx.png)

Shays did best in parts of his old Fairfield County CD and in shore towns out east.  


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: morgieb on August 15, 2012, 01:17:48 am
So for once the Republicans made the right choice. ****.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 15, 2012, 08:42:14 am
After the past 12 years of watching the Senate... do we really care who has 51 seats? So Mitch McConnell will have some chairmanships...as long as the Dems have 40 seats, and Harry Reid employs scorched earth fillibuster tactics, does it really matter?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on August 15, 2012, 10:52:24 am
Nolan takes it in MN-8.

TARRYL L. CLARK    17540    32.27%    
JEFF ANDERSON    15977    29.39%    
RICHARD NOLAN    20838    38.34%    

Also in MN-01 the presumed GOP candidate, a crazy right wing state senator lost to another far right candidate, a former state rep from over 20 years ago that's become a bit of a perennial candidate. Walz was never in any danger, but finally nominating this guy shows where the GOP has gone.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Talleyrand on August 15, 2012, 11:18:16 am
After the past 12 years of watching the Senate... do we really care who has 51 seats? So Mitch McConnell will have some chairmanships...as long as the Dems have 40 seats, and Harry Reid employs scorched earth fillibuster tactics, does it really matter?

Yes, the future of the Affordable Healthcare and Patient Protection Act depends on it. Otherwise, not really.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on August 15, 2012, 11:26:07 am
One thing of note about Nolan, he's from and appears to be quite strong in the normally Republican Brainerd area.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: shua on August 15, 2012, 03:26:37 pm
After the past 12 years of watching the Senate... do we really care who has 51 seats? So Mitch McConnell will have some chairmanships...as long as the Dems have 40 seats, and Harry Reid employs scorched earth fillibuster tactics, does it really matter?

Yes, the future of the Affordable Healthcare and Patient Protection Act depends on it.
Otherwise, not really.

If only.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on August 16, 2012, 12:40:42 am
He's probably referring to that the GOP theoretically can repeal the mandate through reconciliation now (because it's now considered a tax), except repealing the mandate and leaving the rest of the bill intact is not what they and especially not the insurance companies want.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Talleyrand on August 21, 2012, 07:14:36 pm
He's probably referring to that the GOP theoretically can repeal the mandate through reconciliation now (because it's now considered a tax), except repealing the mandate and leaving the rest of the bill intact is not what they and especially not the insurance companies want.
This. They can also gut the law's implementation through reducing appropriations for it, I believe.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Talleyrand on August 21, 2012, 09:47:54 pm
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/GA_Page_0821.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

In the newly created heavily Republican Georgia's 9th congressional district, the Establishmentarian State Representative Doug Collins defeated Tea Party and Herman Cain backed talk show host Martha Zoller by ten points in the runoff.

Meanwhile, in the 12th district, the GOP race to take on highly vulnerable Congressman John Barrow is very close, but there seems to be something unusual going on with the results. They've been literally the same since 88%, but I think all the votes are probably in. Lee Anderson leads Rick Allen by just over 100 votes. I'm not sure who's the better candidate for the GOP.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: True Federalist on August 21, 2012, 10:10:30 pm
With 97% in Anderson's lead is 153 votes in GA-12.  Not certain if Georgia has 0.5% or 1% threshold for an automatic recount, but the margin is 0.56%, not counting any write-in votes.  In any case, I think this one will have to wait for the official certification unless Allen concedes sooner.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 22, 2012, 02:46:51 pm
Does anyone know what's going on in AZ-6? Last I heard the consensus was that Schweikert was ahead but McCain and Kyl have backed Quayle.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on August 29, 2012, 06:39:38 pm
So according to Green Papers, Flake defeated Cardon in the AZ Senate Primary.


Also, Ben Quayle lost to David Schweikert and Paul Gosar won the nomination in the heavily GOP district he fled to.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on August 31, 2012, 12:15:50 pm
So according to Green Papers, Flake defeated Cardon in the AZ Senate Primary.
69-21. Floorwipe.
Quote
Also, Ben Quayle lost to David Schweikert
47-53, so quite close.
Quote
and Paul Gosar won the nomination in the heavily GOP district he fled to.
51-32-17. Also, the race for Democratic paper opponent was decided by 88 votes. And Matt Salmon wins the primary for (essentially) Flake's old seat, 54-46. Ed Pastor has no Republican opponent (but a Libertarian), and...
in the new marginal 9th Kirsten Synema won the Democratic primary 42-31-27 and the Republican result was hilariously splintered, Vernon Parker winning with 23% with the next three at 21, 20 and 18.
An openly bisexual apostate Mormon woman vs a Black Republican with ties to the Salvation Army living in miscenegation. I like this race. :D


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: nclib on August 31, 2012, 04:18:05 pm
Quote
And Matt Salmon wins the primary for (essentially) Flake's old seat, 54-46

I think Salmon held (essentially) that seat before Flake did.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on September 01, 2012, 03:41:53 am
Quote
And Matt Salmon wins the primary for (essentially) Flake's old seat, 54-46

I think Salmon held (essentially) that seat before Flake did.
True fact.

It was larger then, of course.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on September 10, 2012, 09:05:04 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/205_10_09_12_8_53_01.PNG)

Georgia 12 primary and runoff. Standard Atlas key. Blue is Lee Anderson (34.2 on round 1, 50.3 on round 2), red Rick W Allen (25.7/49.7), green Wright McLeod (24.7), yellow Maria Sheffield (15.3). That county she won doesn't care about primaries in faraway districts, it seems - 17 votes in the primary, for a population of 7500 (and no, it is wholly included in the district, unlike the northernmost and southernmost Savannah River counties shown). No big statewide races to drive up interest.

There's something odd afoot here. I'm not sure how Rick W Allen (Rick Allen, no intitial, is the GOP sacrificial lamb against Sanford Bishop) does so well. He's just some random local biznessman with a not very professional website. Anderson (a state Rep) and McLeod (who's got no previous political experience either) were the guys with the sleek websites and the buzz. Sheffield's the only one who stands out otherwise, as younger, a woman, and shriller about being hardcore Conservative (but they all are.) Her previous electoral experience consists of reaching a primary runoff for a lesser statewide office two years ago, btw (in which she "won a majority of the counties in the new 12th district", ie presumably did not win the district. Population's somewhat concentrated at Augusta after all.)
Anderson also received McLeod's and Sheffield's endorsements after the first round, so that runoff ought theoretically to have been a breeze. Sign of underlying weaknesses of the candidate perhaps? I don't know. I do know the race is being officially recounted as we speak, with McLeod calling on Allen not to demand one - which is hilarious given that he demanded one after the first round with a larger deficit to make up and a higher turnout.



Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: xavier110 on September 11, 2012, 10:42:04 am
Yay primaries! I voted for Jackie Cilley today for governor. She may pull off the upset!


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on September 12, 2012, 12:23:03 am
Well, tonight was the end of federal primary season.

Looks like its Hassan/Lamontagne in NH while Cicillene won his primary by a cushy 30-point margin.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Svensson on September 12, 2012, 12:27:25 am
...while Cicilline won his primary by a cushy 30-point margin.

Which I imagine the Democrats are going to despairing come November.


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Miles on September 12, 2012, 12:32:40 am
...while Cicilline won his primary by a cushy 30-point margin.

Which I imagine the Democrats are going to despairing come November.

It looks like the DCCC was bracing for a Cicillene win tonight though, as they released a poll today with him up 6. (http://www.scribd.com/doc/105660217/RI-01-DCCC-IVR-Sept-2012)


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on September 12, 2012, 01:27:38 am
Wouldn't Sinema serve as a replacement for Pete Stark as atheist representation in Congress if he goes down?


Title: Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
Post by: Meeker on September 12, 2012, 01:34:29 am
Hassan's entire victory margin came from Hillsborough and Rockingham. Cilley lead Hassan overall in the rest of the state.