Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: Erc on February 29, 2012, 11:41:31 PM



Title: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Erc on February 29, 2012, 11:41:31 PM
Who do you think wins the statewide vote in the Ohio Primary?

Poll closes Saturday.

Note that Santorum is still on the ballot in all CDs, he is just not eligible for district delegates from all of them. 
Perry and Huntsman are also still on the ballot.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Tidewater_Wave on February 29, 2012, 11:56:37 PM
Santorum will probably win there and it will further the question as to whether Romney can unite conservatives. McCain went through the same thing which frustrates me. Party identification is more important than political ideology at this level.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Eraserhead on March 01, 2012, 11:45:34 AM
You people are still voting for Santorum? I hate Romney as much as any of you (if not more) but come on now...


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: NHI on March 01, 2012, 11:48:39 AM
Romney.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 01, 2012, 12:08:46 PM
Anyone who doesn't think Romney takes at this point is delusional.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: TomC on March 01, 2012, 12:28:21 PM
Romney. Except for the South, I think this campaign is pretty done.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Politico on March 01, 2012, 01:02:12 PM
You people are still voting for Santorum? I hate Romney as much as any of you (if not more) but come on now...

With regards to this place, "the old gray mare, she ain't what she used to be..."

Santorum COULD win Ohio, but voting for him in a poll like this, right now is just...well, it's not objective political analysis that US Election Atlas used to be known for. It's something else...


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Grumpier Than Uncle Joe on March 01, 2012, 01:06:23 PM
Anyone who doesn't think Romney takes at this point is delusional.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: J. J. on March 01, 2012, 01:13:23 PM
Gingrich has a shot, if Santorum drops out by Tuesday, well Monday.  Unless the equation changes, Romney.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: © tweed on March 01, 2012, 01:14:46 PM
W. Mitt Romney


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Chaddyr23 on March 01, 2012, 02:28:33 PM
You people are still voting for Santorum? I hate Romney as much as any of you (if not more) but come on now...


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 01, 2012, 02:54:48 PM


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Niemeyerite on March 01, 2012, 03:11:30 PM
People, Romney carried his Birth State by 4 points. He will have to waste a lot of money or praise for a Gingrich surge in Ohio in order to win there. I think Santorum is the most likely to win there.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Kevin on March 01, 2012, 03:15:21 PM
Romney narrowly.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on March 01, 2012, 03:15:50 PM
Romney


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: LastVoter on March 01, 2012, 03:42:38 PM
I voted Santorum, but I am not very sure, need to see the polls first.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: I'm JewCon in name only. on March 01, 2012, 03:59:53 PM
Santorum: 40%
Romney: 36%
Gingrich: 16%
Paul: 8%


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: America First on March 01, 2012, 06:57:23 PM
 I think the delusional ones are those who don't admit that Ricky has a real chance in Ohio.  I'm leaning towards Rombot 3000 though.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Nation on March 01, 2012, 10:25:17 PM
I refuse to believe Santorum is toast until I see some Ohio polling. Romney has polled dreadfully in the state leading up to MI/AZ -- I'm not convinced his victories there suddenly propel him to a win in Ohio.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: JFK-Democrat on March 01, 2012, 11:22:31 PM
Rick Santorum by about 6% - 8%


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 01, 2012, 11:38:59 PM
After Arizona and Michigan, Romney.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 02, 2012, 02:52:53 AM
I want to see a poll. Mind you Romney winning Michigan is hardly an upset.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: LastVoter on March 02, 2012, 04:23:49 PM
I think that Santorum might have a real chance if he wins WA, otherwise there is nothing to protect him from Romney's moneybags.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: ShadowRocket on March 02, 2012, 04:55:14 PM
I don't know. I'm getting the gut feeling that Santorum may pull it off because of a more conservative electorate and Romney not having a homestate advantage.

I don't think Romney's MI/AZ victory or a possible WA victory for Santorum tommorow will mean much in the grand scheme of things since perceived momemtum from a previous victory hasn't seem to help anybody this year.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: J. J. on March 02, 2012, 06:36:53 PM
I want to see a poll. Mind you Romney winning Michigan is hardly an upset.

Closing in two early polls, but Mittens is still behind.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on March 02, 2012, 06:49:14 PM
Which districts is Santorum not eligible for delegates in?


I remember CD-09 is one. Ironically it is one that he would probably do well in


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Torie on March 02, 2012, 06:53:57 PM
Which districts is Santorum not eligible for delegates in?


I remember CD-09 is one. Ironically it is one that he would probably do well in

Santorum isn't running that well with Catholic voters and urban voters. Where Rick will romp is in the Butternut zone, and perhaps some small counties where the Mennonites hang out (e.g., Holmes and De Wert). TJ can better identify the social conservative zone, more heavily populated by folks for whom economics is less of a driving issue.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Erc on March 02, 2012, 06:54:32 PM
Which districts is Santorum not eligible for delegates in?


I remember CD-09 is one. Ironically it is one that he would probably do well in

6, 9, and 13.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Torie on March 02, 2012, 06:59:41 PM
Which districts is Santorum not eligible for delegates in?


I remember CD-09 is one. Ironically it is one that he would probably do well in

6, 9, and 13.

Oh my. OH-06 is Butternut central along the Ohio River (OH-02 has a bit of Butternut, but it is swamped by the Cincy burbs).


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Badger on March 02, 2012, 07:29:00 PM
What is this 'butternut zone' you speak of, Steve? I've followed politics here pretty closely for 20 years now and never heard the term before.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on March 02, 2012, 07:30:22 PM
Romney.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 02, 2012, 08:06:15 PM
Which districts is Santorum not eligible for delegates in?


I remember CD-09 is one. Ironically it is one that he would probably do well in

6, 9, and 13.

Oh my. OH-06 is Butternut central along the Ohio River (OH-02 has a bit of Butternut, but it is swamped by the Cincy burbs).

Well, people in that district can still vote for him, and it'll add to his statewide tally, going towards proportionately allocated statewide delegates.....but he won't be able to win the WTA delegates assigned for that district.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Torie on March 02, 2012, 08:12:23 PM
What is this 'butternut zone' you speak of, Steve? I've followed politics here pretty closely for 20 years now and never heard the term before.

Well I admit butternut (http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Where_is_the_butternut_region) is a term more in common currency with Civil War buffs (do you have any interest in the Civil War Badger?  :P), but Barone used it in his Almanac, so it has percolated into the political realm, and I like the term. Hey do you know why that region of Ohio has farms with irregular boundaries, while most of the rest of Ohio has these square and rectangular jobs?  Actually the two "phenoms" are somewhat related. :)


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: TJ in Oregon on March 02, 2012, 08:27:55 PM
My thoughts are that Romney will win districts 1,3,11,12, and 14 pretty handily, basically urban Cincinnati, Columbus, the east side of Cleveland, and LaTourette-moderate-hero-Republican-ville in Lake/Geauga/far Eastern Cuyahoga counties. He's also probably favored in 15.

Santorum will win 4 and 5 handily and probably be somewhat favored in 2, 7, 8, and 10 as well.

6 should be a lopsided Santorum district but you guys all know what happened there.

9 and 13 really represent the types of areas Santorum will need to run very well in if he plans on getting elected. Both are blue-collar traditionally Democratic areas with large Catholic populations and some degree of a history of ticket splitting. I expect Romney to do pretty badly in both in a general election, though he might do better in the primary since Republican primary voters probably skew much more educated and wealthy than the general electorate.


Title: Re: Who wins Ohio?
Post by: Torie on March 02, 2012, 08:30:04 PM
My thoughts are that Romney will win districts 1,3,11,12, and 14 pretty handily, basically urban Cincinnati, Columbus, the east side of Cleveland, and LaTourette-moderate-hero-Republican-ville in Lake/Geauga/far Eastern Cuyahoga counties. He's also probably favored in 15.

Santorum will win 4 and 5 handily and probably be somewhat favored in 2, 7, 8, and 10 as well.

6 should be a lopsided Santorum district but you guys all know what happened there.

9 and 13 really represent the types of areas Santorum will need to run very well in if he plans on getting elected. Both are blue-collar traditionally Democratic areas with large Catholic populations and some degree of a history of ticket splitting. I expect Romney to do pretty badly in both in a general election, though he might do better in the primary since Republican primary voters probably skew much more educated and wealthy than the general electorate.


If I had to guess, Rick has yet to win the Catholic vote anywhere so far. And yes, he needs to, to get back in the game in a serious way.