Talk Elections

...and there is virtually no way to deny Romney the nomination short of upsets in winner-take-all California, New Jersey and *drum roll* Utah. Good luck with that!

If Romney wins Mississippi, the polar opposite of Romney's home state of Massachusetts, it is time for Santorum and Gingrich to endorse Romney. If they continue this circus, they are only helping the cause of Barack Obama and Co...

Congratulations Winfield!

I agree- Congratulations to you too Politico but let's see if Romney has any gaffes or other issues before the fat lady sings

I think romney will win California but lets all remember that everyone seemed about ready to call the whole thing for romney right after NH. and then he lost SC and Fl seemed to be in doubt for a second. Then he bounced back with NV only to receive an epic ass kicking by Santorum in 3/3 states. He lost effin Colorado of all places, his 2nd best 08 state. So it is not out of the realm of possibility that he stumbles again.  

California is not a lock against Gingrich, he got very close in one of his surges.

Cool, then once Romney wins those three states Santorum and Gingrich will drop out. Until then, we'll keep letting the American people vote. Why are the Romneybots so disdainful of democracy?

So to force an "open" convention, Romney needs to lose votes in California, New Jersey, and Utah?

Say, any shot Huntsman will get back in the race?

:P

California is mostly WTA by CD, not WTA statewide.  There's a smaller number of at-large delegates that go to the statewide winner.  Same with Wisconsin and Maryland, and probably a few others that I'm not thinking of at the moment.

It's quasi-WTA statewide when you win most every CD ;)

Sorry, folks, but this circus is over even if some people think it's not.

And obviously, if Romney wins most every CD, he'll be the nominee.  I'll defer to the voters of California as to whether they want to do that rather than pre-judge the outcome three months in advance.  ;)

You aren't familiar with the California GOP or California electoral politics, are you?

It would be hard for Santorum to take a majority but he can take a good chunk here if he keeps this things competitive.

Wasn't Santorum at CA-2 at one point?

Sorry, folks, but there are a ton of CD's in CA that are neither rich enough nor Mormon enough to love Romney. So there's no chance he'll win "most every CD" if there's still a competitive race by then.

Rick will win a few CDs in CA. CA is a very diverse state and once you get away from the coasts it is essentially a red state.

There is no doubt that June is going to be good for Romney, but the period between the Yankee primaries in late APril and the CA primary is going to be brutal for Romney. He will be lucky to win 1 out of 8 states in May, the last of which will be the big state of TX. Romney is just lucky that TX has super-proportionate rules.  If TX was WTA or even WTA by CD, Romney would have a much harder time making his 1144, or at least making it without unbound delegates putting him over the top.

You forget that Paul would have beat him in Maine if not for those votes in the river.

I see you are reduced to arguing the horse race on Romney's behalf. He can't run on his record, such as Obamacare lite. He can't run on past as a Wall Street insider wheeler-dealer after the bailouts.  And, he can't run on his campaign or stump performance. Who really believes he is a Southerner? "Vote Romney, the fix is on anyway!," is hardly a ringing endorsement of the man. Frankly, to paraphrase Arch Moore's campaign slogan against Jay Rockerfeller: "Make them steal them all, Newt and Rick!"

Heaven forbid elections be decided by actual voters rather than wannabe pundits.

()

The problem with throwing ballots into the river is that they could conceivably turn up someday.

The best thing is just to burn them then dispose of the ashes so they cannot be somehow forensically reconstructed.

:)

I think the Fed prints money on the uncounted Paul ballots.

You folks are more than welcome to crunch the numbers yourself. Do it. It will upset you even more than my post. This race is almost over, and if Romney wins MS it will probably be the nail in the coffin, especially if he adds AL.

Hopefully the Republican electorate is dumb enough to keep voting for Santorum even after he lost, and Paultards cause shenanigans at the convention.

No question about it... Been running the numbers a dozen different ways, but can't find any way for Santorum to win a majority without major blow outs in Texas, Pa with majorities within Ill, Califorina, New york. Most importantly at least the majoritiy within the rest of the midwest in delegates.

I just did some math getting 870 for Santorum.
I gave him 30-Ill, 95-Calforina, 90-Texas, 45-misr, 25 neb, oregon 8, Montana 20, gave him majorities in new york, 45 in pa, majority within LA, indiana-30. To give some idea of what I did.

Considering people will start going towards Romney by mid May. I doubt Calforina and likely texas.

TX was +27 for Santorum.

Romney will certainly win the nomination. If he wins AL or MS tomorrow, that should be a sign for the others to drop out.

Why do Romney supporters pretend to not understand that the threshold that needs to be crossed for them to claim victory is not that no other candidate can get a first round majority, but that Romney can get a first round majority?  That is not yet certain.  If Romney arrives in Tampa with a plurality but not a majority, then he probably will not be the nominee.

Explain your reasoning?   If Romney arrives in Tampa with a plurality but not a majority, he will still in all likelihood be the nominee, being the candidate with the most votes in the end.  Under what scenario does Romney not end up as the nominee?

The nominee will be unelectable Romney(with Santorum or Gingrich as vice president, or end the fed on his platform) rather than Romney, or a compromise candidate.

If Romney arrives in Tampa with only a plurality then unless he is only a few votes shy of a majority, I think a dark horse candidate will arise, most likely someone who has endorsed Romney, but who either the Santorum or Gingrich camps can live with as a face-saving compromise for all.  Might even have a few platform planks tossed in to appease the Paulites so as to keep the convention quiet.

As usual, I find myself splitting the baby on this.  I don't think that Romney has to get to 1144 exactly in pledged delegates to win...but he has to get pretty close.  If he is on 1100, then I'd hand it to him on available unpledged delegates.

However, if he has a plurality around 1000 or so (and particularly if there's a nasty lump late in the season such as an upset in CA or a blowout in TX), I think it's a much dodgier proposition.  If it were a plurality around 900-950, then I think Romney would probably be in deep, deep trouble.

For the record, I'd put the 50/50 line somewhere around 1025 or so.

Romney will need to pick a VP to appease the primary voters at the convention.  There are only a few choices with the name recognition to prevent a riot. 

But I think if Romney makes smart moves, he can narrowly win against Obama.

Measuring the drapes, eh? Perhaps, it's time to start thinking about whom would be Santorum's smart choice in order to beat Obama if he wins the nomination.

How? Santorum could beat Romney 60-30 in the South and Midwest for the rest of the contest, and still not win the nomination. It is virtually impossible for Rick Santorum to win the nomination unless Romney collapses in places like California, New Jersey and Utah. Even tonight he only beat Romney by one delegate in Mississippi and nine delegates in Alabama. We will see what happens in Hawaii and America Samoa, but I suspect they will help Romney eat away at those ten delegates Santorum picked up between AL/MS.

End result: Even after tonight, Romney still has twice as many delegates as Santorum.

Anybody who says Santorum can win the nomination needs to crunch the numbers and present their case. I see no way he can even surpass Romney for a plurality, let alone get to 1144.

Romney's got this, especially if the unpledged delegates have to decide it.

CNN's currently projecting Romney's delegate count at 489 (459 P, 30 U). As Politico said, Romney will no doubt carry CA, NJ & UT, amassing a total of 262 delegates.

751.

If Romney were to garner only 25% of the unpledged delegates (142) from here on out? 893.
He'd need 251 pledged delegates out of 1,027 (excludes CA, NJ, UT) between now and the end.

If Romney got 50% of the unpledged delegates from here on out? 1,034.
He'd need 110 pledged delegates out of 1,027 (excludes CA, NJ, UT) between now and the end.

If Romney got a proportional amount of unpledged delegates based on current amounts (85%) from here on out? 1,204.

It's over, ya'll. Go have some cheesy grits. There might be a brokered convention but in the end, it's only going to favor the establishment candidate's chances even more (when compared to a plurality of the national Republican electorate).

Your math doesn't work here, as California isn't winner take all statewide.  It's WTA by congressional district.  You think there's "no doubt" that Romney wins every single CD?

Meh, a rounding error. To calculate that would be an assumption one step more than I wanted to go and not one that I think carries more than 30 delegates of merit.

Romney could win CA by 20 points and not carry every CD. That being said Romney does have an advantage. He will likely win every CD in the Bay Area (maybe a surprise in the east bay but likely it will just be closer than the rest) and most in LA county where there aren't many Republicans. He will lose in the Central Valley and the Inland Empire outside of the Palm Springs area. Inland OC and LA county will be areas to watch. Still, Romney wins with 10 points even with only Santorum and Paul opposing him and will easily win a majority of CD's.

What are the registration requirements for that primary?  If Dems wanted to mess with the GOP primary, could they Operation Hilarity a few delegates towards Santorum?  Presumably it wouldn't take many voters to do so.

I agree with this. Like I said before, it was a calculation that I think is a rounding error for all intensive purposes. The geographic area you're talking about is rather vast but sparse; all of that adds up (with the exception of OC) to no more than 10 congressional districts @ 3 apiece. There are certainly millions of Californians extreme enough to go for Santorum but the new lines do a good job at keeping them divided and/or isolated, no matter how non-partisan they're supposed to be.

Still, looking at my other numbers, even if you throw Santorum 100 delegates from California, Romney's still going to have major leeway when it comes to getting the combined number of pledged and unpledged to walk with this thing.

Only Republicans get to vote, not even Independents.

I'm pretty sure the new districts will be used, won't they? And they aren't drawn by the Democrats and aren't a bipartisan gerrymander like the current districts. I don't know whether the new lines are more beneficial to Santorum or not. I suspect they are, just slightly. Two districts I can think of that will be more beneficial for him are the Riverside area district that does not go into wealthy areas of OC anymore and the San Joaquin county district that does not pick up wealthy Bay Area suburbs.

But how does party registration work in California?  Can you just show up at the polls and say "I'm a Republican", or do you have to fill out a registration card weeks/months in advance?

Sorry, I had revised it after I realized what I said there. They may give him a slight boost compared to the old maps, but there are also areas in the Central Valley that are more diluted now. There's also only one seat in the far NE corner of the state now as opposed to two.

Folks, Romney won more delegates yesterday than anybody else thanks to big wins in Hawaii and American Samoa. Like Obama (and unlike Hillary) four years ago, Team Romney knows that this is about delegates. And the Romney lead in delegates is insurmountable unless Santorum wins most everywhere from here on out, including New Jersey and Utah. Not just that, Santorum would need to crush, not just beat, Romney in places like Connecticut and Rhode Island (Home of the Winfield).

Folks, this game is over. Santorum is like a team trying to comeback from a 48-24 deficit in the third quarter of a football game. Yeah, you got off to a 3-0 start, but you're down 48-24 now. A comeback is not going to happen...

It needs to be done in advance. Don't remember if it's 15 or 30 days but it is certainly not very convenient and I doubt the average voter will care enough to change their registration for this. Maybe Paul voters, but that's about it.

Looking at the D Primary in 2008, I think it is very premature to call it a game.  Romney, like Obama in 2008, ran up some huge delegate scores in the early primaries.  In March 2008, Obama basically broke even, with a net gain of 7 delegates (about 3-4 in proportion of total delegates).  Then in April, Hilary started to close the gap.

Santorum has a good shot at closing the gap in IL and an outside chance in PR.  If something comes out of MO, that could do it. 

Uh... the D primary in 2008 was over by the end of February. Obama had a large enough delegate lead after winning everything by huge margins that month that it was impossible for Clinton to come back. Of course the fact that the D primary was very proportional while Republican primary states are generally either WTA or give a large bonus to the winner makes the comparison pretty useless.

The same with Iowa as well.

Heh. Romney's fading. Just like last time vs McCain.

Yes, and Obama was ultimately the nominee, but there was a sizable Hillary comeback.  I think there could be a Santorum "comeback."

It is possible for Santorum to have a comeback and deny Mitt the 1144 he needs, but Rick has to start winning in unexpected states.

Rick will likely win MO, LA, PA, NC, WV, NE, WI, AR, KY, TX, SD, IN, and MT...but even if he wins all of those Romney will still get his 1144.  Santorum needs to also win in places like IL, PR, NM and DE. He also needs a huge delegate haul out of TX and to hold back Romney's haul in CA.

Guys, is my memory malfunctioning?  If I recall, Obama failed to put Hillary away, but superdelegates decided that his plurality was good enough.  If this is the the comparison to suggest Romney has it locked up, it's a bad one.

That is what happened. Winning the majority of elected delegates creates a strong moral case that the superdelegates ought to respect. The democratic superdelegates didn't dare screw over a Black man. I doubt the Republican establishment would have any compunction against screwing over conservatives. At least, make them do their dirty business in the light of day.

Obama actually won a majority of pledged delegates, but since the Dems have so many supers, it wasn't enough. He could have won even if Hillary had a slim majority of supers, but she would have needed like 70% of the supers to put her over the top. In the end Obama got 2/3/s of the supers and he won.

While the GOP has less supers, the scenario where the supers put Romney over the top is a distinct possibility. I think an interesting scenario would be if Romney wins just over 1000 delegates and then gets put over the top by picking up 80-100% of the unpledged delegates. That could be seen by tea partiers and other grassroots conservatives as the establishment forcing a Romney nomination. The net result could be less base enthusiasm, resulting in lower turnout.

I don't think Illinois is essential. I get the feeling that April 3 is going to be far more important in the grand scheme of things. If Santorum can't win Wisconsin (assuming that he won't win MD without WI), then he's going to have a hard time sustaining any momentum. Let's say he wins Louisiana on March 24th, then loses WI and MD on the 3rd. That means that between March 24th and May 8th the only two states he has a shot at are PA and DE. That's just disastrous. Even though the May calender looks excellent for him (NC, IN, WV, KY, AR, TX), by that point any moral victory is worthless because the numbers just don't work.

If he wants to boost his numbers in these Romney states (NY, RI, CT, CA) in order to get a significant number of delegates, he has to consistently win, and not having a victory besides your home state between March 24th and May 8th just isn't going to do it.

If Gingrich gets out though, even at this point, I think you'll see Santorum win in IL, WI, and possibly MD. That would probably irreparably harm Romney's guarantee of getting to 1144 because that means he has to get a very large portion of his 600 or so needed delegates out of CA, NY, UT, and CT, which have a combined total of 335. Obviously he can (and probably would) still make it up by solid showings in Santorum states, but it's definitely harder.

Care to revise and extend these remarks?

It's becoming more and more possible each day Willard will need extra help, a deal unpledged delegates, to push him over the 1144 mark.

Romney is starting to get nervous as well.  He's begun to speak about the ills of a convention because he wants scare everyone into voting for him now.  He knows if he doesn't win it on the first ballot, he'll likely not win the nomination.

I completely agree with this.  Newt and Santorum are now in this to block Romney from 1144.  If Romney doesn't get that number on the first ballot, he will not win on future ballots.

So Romney can lose all the way to the nomination?  Wow, that's exciting.  He'll be on quite a roll, won't he.

Except the more apt analogy is that it is halftime, Romney is up 24-20, but, his opponents have gained more yardage, and, the field goal Romney kicked as the first half ended is being reviewed by the officials.

The Romney campaign is turning into the gang that can't shoot straight.  Last night, they were giddy they might win Mississippi and suggested the race would effectively end if that happened.  Unfortunately, they lost and then Eric Fernstrom went on CNN and said winning AL and MS weren't important.  He then pointed to Samoa.

I understand the Romney gang is doing their best to spin a bad night, but the delegate math argument is a loser for them.  It gives the impression Mitt doesn't actually need to win any of these competitive states to win the nomination.  Maybe I'm old fashioned, but winning ought to matter.

Romney needs to excite the base and some sort of convoluted discussion about delegates is not going to do it.  Still, that's the best case Romney has right now because he knows the conservative base is opposed to him in the primary.  Newt was not a real candidate, yet he got more than 30% in both states and beat Romney.

Romney does not have this race sealed up at all.  He may still win it, but his path to 1144 grows more difficult with each race.  Romney's own numbers say he must win 47% of the remaining delegates, but he's shown no signs of being able to do that.  If Newt and Santorum hold Romney to 1000 delegates or less, the unpledged delegates probably won't put him over the top.

Romney pushing this delegate math argument because he is aware that if he can't win on the first ballot, he probably won't win at all.  When delegates are allowed to vote for whomever they choose, it's hard to envision Santorum and Newt voters abandoning their men in order to save Romney's flagging chances.  Same for the Pail delegates.  It's far more likely Romney's delegates begin to peel off in attempts to find a consensus choice, possibly someone not even in the race.

I will stand by my prediction of more than a month ago.  The nominee will either be Romney or someone not in the race.

It's Romney or Santorum. There isn't going to be a knight on a white horse here. You heard it here first.

It will really come down to who Romney selects as his VP.  Would there be any GOP Vice Presidential pick that you think can appease the "anti-Romney crowd" but also help Romney win independent swing voters? 

I think whoever VP he picks should be catholic and from a swing state, and with plenty of political experience. 

Milhouse24- Santorum meets those standards

I do not have the spreadsheet in front of me, but if you put WTA NJ and UT in the Romney column, along with even just half the delegates from CA, he only needs a little over 1/3rd of the remaining delegates to get to 1144. I mean, there is no reason to believe that Santorum is going to suddenly start winning heavily in places like CT, RI, NY, and CA, especially when you factor in Romney's unbeatable edge in finances (who won OH again? Who won MI again? Oh, and who won more delegates yesterday???)

Some of you guys are just being duped by the media into believing this is not a foregone conclusion. They want their high ratings and you are helping them.

It really would take an act of God for Romney to not be the nominee, folks...

Personally, I believe Romney should focus upon Obama, and his campaign should start vetting Gov. Bob McDonnell. The sooner we can roll out the undeniably conservative running mate, the better!

Actually he would need 467 of the remaining 1078, which is 44.4%
(including Romney winning DC, which is also WTA)

As, obviously, did Joe Biden. Well, not that DE itself was a swing state, but he was there to appeal to exactly that demographic in places like PA and OH.

Yes, income was a factor in redistricting. But income as I have been saying, is not enough. It needs to be combined with Evangelicalism. In fact, for Nate Silver, income is not a factor at all, it is all about religion and region, but I suspect he can get away with it because income and Evangelicalism are correlated. But less so in CA in the sense that the Evangelicalism numbers are low.

You need to register as a Pub 30 days in advance I think.

I doubt if the heard of him in OH, prior to the nomination.  Certainly, in eastern PA, he had years worth of media.

No, it really comes down to a question of whether, or not, he has enough delegates.