Talk Elections

Hey, Mitt...



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Oops.

The Winfield legacy lives on.

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Mitt Romney will still win the nomination. Rick Santorum will still lose the nomination. Tonight did not change that, it just prolonged the process.

Wow, that's a message that'll get Republicans riled up.

Newt really should drop out at this point, unless he secretly wants Romney to win the nomination.

If this is Santorum's desperate end, I'm sure Mittens must be dreading the other end!

So should Santorum. Santorum can have his moment of glory by winning two southern primaries were a majority of voters think Obama is a Muslim. Romney's moment is going to be when he accepts the GOP nomination in Tampa in a few months.

Romney sucks.

That is all.

To paraphrase the late Ann Richards: Poor Mitt, he can't help it. He was born with a silver foot in his mouth.

Okay, so now let's insult the Republican voters and blame this mess on them. :( Santorum isn't going to drop out right after he won two states. It will likely happen eventually but the time hasn't come yet. If Santorum dropped out now, we would get a Newt resurgence, which would make the situation worse.

I guess you can't buy every election.

If the 2008 Dem primaries have taught Republicans anything, its that crowing about delegates isn't going to get the other candidate to drop out. Clinton tried it, with the form of the "superdelegates." It didn't work. Romney obviously has a superior organization, but they can't be stupid enough to think that Santorum is going to roll over for Mittens. They have to beat him straight up, at multiple contests, and acquire 1144 delegates -- not 400, not 500, not 600.

Besides, if America hates Obama so much, it shouldn't matter how long the contest runs until -- right?

Hey, congratulations Phil. I'm not a fan of Santorum but I know he's your guy. Plus I'm a bit of a sucker for the underdog.

Romney is done. If Gingrich drops out, this race is over. Mitt simply refuses to be become an aggressive candidate, constantly falling back on negative ads instead of attacking his opponents as directly as they have attacked him.

Because of his stand for social conservatism, I should be supporting Santorum, but I don't want to because that will make my vote in the PA primary worthless.

The minor catch with this line of thinking is that Romney has more delegates and the delegate system is rigged in his favor; the states that award winner-take-all skew heavily for Romney. He would very difficult to stop at this point with only one other candidate in the race, let alone both Santorum and Gingrich.

Gingrich has to realize he's done at this point. There just aren't enough southern states left.

NY and especially CA aren't safe for Romney amid many other losses, and MD, DE, OR, ect. should all be good territory for Santorum despite the conventional wisdom when you consider the GOP electorate in those states. There isn't much left for Romney to win. The only scenario in which Romney can prevail is if Gingrich stays in.

Many of these states are also proportional, and I highly doubt Santorum will blow him out in almost all of the remaining states. This isn't about winning states; it's about winning delegates. Santorum is going to have to do a heckuva lot to get enough delegates.

Phil doesn't like me much these days, but having said that, this is one thread where Phil deserves to chortle - at Mittens expense. It was a stupid remark. Mittens would be wiser to just kill Rick with kindness, while trying to sharpen his message. Mittens you won't get more votes at this point by demeaning your opposition that way. Everybody knows where everyone stands, and you will get the nomination in the end. That is the math. In the meantime, you need a bit more self confidence, while at the same time walking a bit more humbly before your God. JMO.

If Romney wins virtually no states for the rest of the primary season there's no way he will be nominated at the convention.

That's not going to happen. Romney will likely win California, New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Utah, at pretty much a minimum. He'll also pick up some more delegates in other state's due to poor organization of Santorum's camp, and will probably win the delegate battle in several of those states.

Another reset, just like SC and last month's caucuses. Romney's nomination isn't a matter of if but when.

Except that that's not going to happen. NY, UT, and CT should be in the bag for him. He has to be favored in IL as well. I'm not sure about NJ but I see that probably going his way, same with MD. IN, WI, and OR are probably where you're going to see whether we get a brokered convention or an outright Romney victory. In this situation it's nearly impossible for Santorum to win in delegates and very hard to see him pull ahead, even with PA and TX.

This is of course assuming Gingrich stays in, which seems to be the case. If he gets out then all bets are off, because suddenly states like MD and IL are competitive, and those three I mentioned above (IN, WI, and OR) look very good for Santorum.

Drop out Grinch.

He gave a mellow speech tonight that could've used some work. Gingirich is done. Romney did poorly but has the best future out of the 3 in terms of the GOP primary.

I was expecting you to say that Romney's moment would be in November. Interesting that you think August instead.

Drop out Newt.

The November election is likely to be more a referendum on the economy than anything else.  (And if something unexpected crops up to take over from the economy as the number one issue, all bets on which Republican would do best against Obama are off the table.)  Both Santorum and Romney bring pluses and minuses to the table for the couple of percent that will be in play on other factors and will decide the swing states if we have a close election.  Personally, I think Santorum's effect on the base will be more of a benefit than the luring in of swing voters that will supposedly come from Romney's managerial wizardry.  We'll see in November how it plays out.

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