Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: Mr. Morden on March 14, 2012, 05:44:27 AM



Title: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 14, 2012, 05:44:27 AM
Confirmed in this news story:

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/missouri-s-gop-caucuses-are-coming-ready-or-not/article_b6ccc860-d87f-559a-8669-4c428af512a5.html

The caucus (held in most counties this coming Saturday, but one county already caucused last night) will just select delegates, and not involve any straw poll, so there'll be no real results to report this Saturday.  It'll be like the Hawaii caucus in 2008:

Quote
No 'straw poll" will be held to determine the preference of those in the room. Participants will not be asked to run to a corner of the gymnasium to indicate their favorite candidate. There may be few, if any, soapbox speeches.

The premise of the caucus is actually as mundane as it gets — an organizational meeting.

"It's a regular meeting that takes place pursuant to Robert's Rules," said state GOP spokesman Jonathon Prouty. "The only business that is meant to take place is the election of delegates and the review of the platform."
.
.
.
Effective campaigns will head into the caucuses with a chairman and slate of delegates already prepared. Compromise can play a role, if, say, no candidate has a majority in the room, and two camps collaborate to split delegates and shut out a third contender.

So yeah, presumably we'll get some kind of reports of which campaigns were more successful in getting their delegates elected, but there are no real "results" to report.  Just some names of delegates who may or may not have made any promises about which presidential candidate they're voting for.

Quote
Even if the process goes flawlessly for the state GOP, results will not be officially known until the congressional district meetings in April.

Despite this, all of the candidates except Gingrich have had or will have a campaign event in Missouri this week, to rally the troops.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 14, 2012, 05:45:59 AM
inb4 it's hijacked by Paultards


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 14, 2012, 06:18:01 AM
Intrade just paused betting on their Missouri caucus betting market, apparently just realizing that there's no way to determine a winner.  Lol.  It's like when they had a betting market for 3rd place in Virginia, even though there were only two names on the ballot.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Bacon King on March 14, 2012, 09:46:04 AM
safe Ron Paul!


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: J. J. on March 14, 2012, 10:08:39 AM
Then it is down to IL and PR.  I think Santorum has to win at least one to be credible as a real alternative to Romney.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Erc on March 14, 2012, 11:50:17 AM
Then it is down to IL and PR.  I think Santorum has to win at least one to be credible as a real alternative to Romney.

Don't forget, Louisiana also has its primary on April 24 (the same date the Missouri Caucuses finish).


As for Missouri: the CD Conventions are on April 21 [24 delegates selected], and the State Convention is on June 2 [25 delegates selected].


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on March 14, 2012, 11:52:25 AM
Quote
I think Santorum has to win at least one to be credible as a real alternative to Romney.

Newsflash, if he wins either one, he can take this outright.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: J. J. on March 14, 2012, 12:06:47 PM
Quote
I think Santorum has to win at least one to be credible as a real alternative to Romney.

Newsflash, if he wins either one, he can take this outright.

That is what I mean to being a real alternative (and why LA isn't in there).


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RBH on March 14, 2012, 12:51:38 PM
Nice of the MO GOP to reduce the amount of embarrassment for their candidate after his 30 point loss last month. They could have had a real primary in March but they chose not to do it due to a Republican House/Republican Senate deadlock


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on March 14, 2012, 02:08:18 PM
Quote
Then it is down to IL and PR.  I think Santorum has to win at least one to be credible as a real alternative to Romney

Halfway through with 10 states? He's either going to be the nominee, or it is going to convention, as with Reagan.

The last time the nomination went this long without a winner was back in '08 with 19 states going to the challengers.



Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: J. J. on March 14, 2012, 10:34:10 PM

Quote


Halfway through with 10 states? He's either going to be the nominee, or it is going to convention, as with Reagan.

The last time the nomination went this long without a winner was back in '08 with 19 states going to the challengers.



Santorum, in order to be credible, has to close the delegate gap.  It has consistently increased in March, and, rather impressively.   AP shows it 204 for the month.  If Santorum loses the next two primaries, that gap will grow and it makes Romney look like he is unbeatable. 


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Eraserhead on March 15, 2012, 12:06:48 AM
This is unfortunate news.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: J. J. on March 15, 2012, 12:27:51 AM

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 15, 2012, 12:28:57 AM
Quote
Then it is down to IL and PR.  I think Santorum has to win at least one to be credible as a real alternative to Romney

Halfway through with 10 states? He's either going to be the nominee, or it is going to convention, as with Reagan.

The last time the nomination went this long without a winner was back in '08 with 19 states going to the challengers.



Technically there hasn't been a brokered convention since the DNC did away with its 2/3rds requirement in the 1940s. Now the 1924 DNC was epic.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Eraserhead on March 15, 2012, 12:36:22 AM

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 15, 2012, 12:52:40 AM

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.

I believe the rest of the Nevada county conventions are on Saturday, if it makes you feel any better...


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Eraserhead on March 15, 2012, 01:56:02 AM

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.

I believe the rest of the Nevada county conventions are on Saturday, if it makes you feel any better...

Not quite. :P


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: bgwah on March 15, 2012, 01:58:55 AM
then how will predictions work?!


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 15, 2012, 10:41:47 AM
then how will predictions work?!

They won't. In fact, they'll probably be removed.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on March 15, 2012, 10:55:51 AM
So that means no predictions for Missouri at all? Dave should've just taken predictions on the beauty contest primary.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: J. J. on March 15, 2012, 11:14:30 AM

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.

Well, you'll want to watch if Mittens both wins and breaks 50%.  That will trigger WTA.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 15, 2012, 12:19:33 PM
So that means no predictions for Missouri at all? Dave should've just taken predictions on the beauty contest primary.

Dave did.  A few days before the beauty contest, Dave changed the date the Missouri predictions were locked in to that of the beauty constent becaus ehe learned there would be no results from the caucus.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 15, 2012, 03:04:49 PM

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.

Well, you'll want to watch if Mittens both wins and breaks 50%.  That will trigger WTA.

What?


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: J. J. on March 15, 2012, 03:13:49 PM

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.

Well, you'll want to watch if Mittens both wins and breaks 50%.  That will trigger WTA.

What?


In PR, on Sunday.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 15, 2012, 03:21:06 PM

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.

Well, you'll want to watch if Mittens both wins and breaks 50%.  That will trigger WTA.

What?


In PR, on Sunday.

Eraserhead said "I just wanted something to watch on Saturday."


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Eraserhead on March 15, 2012, 07:17:10 PM
lol JJ


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 16, 2012, 10:37:38 AM
Interesting. (http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/16/early-glimpse-of-missouri-caucuses-shows-support-for-santorum/)

Quote
Mitt Romney and his campaign advisers pride themselves on vigorously pursuing every delegate in every corner of the country in their quest to secure the Republican presidential nomination.

That was not the case here Thursday evening at the Chariton County caucus inside the Railyard Steakhouse, where Republicans voted to send their full share of delegates to the district and state conventions in support of Rick Santorum.

...

The first question of the evening was whether to bind delegates to the results of the February primary. The measure passed by a wide margin and no discussion, which sent four delegates on behalf of Mr. Santorum and none for Mr. Romney or Representative Ron Paul of Texas.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Torie on March 16, 2012, 10:50:15 AM
Missouri is not going to be a good place for Mittens. He will get presumably the St. Louis metro area, and maybe Cape Giraudoux, and that is probably about it. The rest of the state will be grim.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 16, 2012, 11:44:03 AM
Missouri is not going to be a good place for Mittens. He will get presumably the St. Louis metro area, and maybe Cape Giraudoux, and that is probably about it. The rest of the state will be grim.

Santorum carried handily (20 points or more) St. Louis and its suburbs, so I wouldn't hold my breath even there.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Torie on March 16, 2012, 11:54:56 AM
Missouri is not going to be a good place for Mittens. He will get presumably the St. Louis metro area, and maybe Cape Giraudoux, and that is probably about it. The rest of the state will be grim.

Santorum carried handily (20 points or more) St. Louis and its suburbs, so I wouldn't hold my breath even there.

Yes, although that beauty contest race wasn't contested, and caucuses are strange beasts. But you may be right. We shall see.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on March 16, 2012, 03:36:26 PM
So that means no predictions for Missouri at all? Dave should've just taken predictions on the beauty contest primary.

Dave did.  A few days before the beauty contest, Dave changed the date the Missouri predictions were locked in to that of the beauty constent becaus ehe learned there would be no results from the caucus.

The MO predictions still says 3-17 on the predictions entry page.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Minnesota Mike on March 17, 2012, 01:04:08 PM
sounds like chaos in Mo, at least according to twitter

#mocaucus



Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 17, 2012, 01:13:34 PM
Missouri is not going to be a good place for Mittens. He will get presumably the St. Louis metro area, and maybe Cape Giraudoux, and that is probably about it. The rest of the state will be grim.

Santorum carried handily (20 points or more) St. Louis and its suburbs, so I wouldn't hold my breath even there.

Yes, although that beauty contest race wasn't contested, and caucuses are strange beasts. But you may be right. We shall see.

Yeah, but it sounds like Mittens isn't contesting the caucus either.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 17, 2012, 01:16:57 PM
Here are some twitter reports:

Quote
In Boone County. Out of 53 delegates, 48 went to Ron Paul and five went to Mitt Romney. Romney's people joined Paul slate.

In Platte county, there seems to be an even split between nominating a Romney slate of delegates and a Santorum/Gingrich slate.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 17, 2012, 01:39:35 PM
Looks like the Santorum slate won in Platte County. If Romney's losing places like Platte, then he's probably not going to get many delegates out of this caucus at all.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 17, 2012, 02:18:38 PM
The St. Charles County caucus has been cancelled.

Quote
Well, I just got back from my caucus in St. Charles County, Missouri and it did not go well. First of all, the caucus was supposed to start at 10am but the lines were so long that they decided to let anyone who got in line by 10am to get in. The actual meeting didn't even start until approx. 11:10am and this black guy (Eugene, I think he was the St. Chas. County Republican Chairman), tells everyone to turn off their video cameras and that recording is not allowed. The place went ballistic and then Eugene told the cops to arrest this guy who was video recording. The cops went up to arrest the guy and everyone started yelling things like, "First Amendment Rights!", ""Defend the Constitution!", "Arrest the chairman!" The cops realized that this could get ugly so they backed off and called for reinforcements. The meeting was stopped until about a dozen or so more cops showed up. Then Eugene started the meeting again and announced that anyone caught video taping would be arrested. Right after that he asked for a nomination for Caucus Chairman. Brent Stafford was nominated and was overwhelmingly endorsed by the crowd. This Eugene nazi fellow, completely ignored the crowd and nominated this white guy tool who Eugene immediately announced as the Caucus Chairman without any support at all. The place went ballistic and the Romney and Paul supporters realized that we were being screwed. The place continued to go nuts and so the caucus was completely canceled and guess what?! St. Chas. County will not have any delegates to respresent them in this election. The only thing I can figure out is that maybe this Eugene character and his coharts were Santorum supporters and they saw that Romney and Paul were going to get the majority of the delegates so they decided to stir up this trouble. I am sorry to ramble on like this but I am so shaken right now. What I just witnessed seems like something that came right out of the nazi playbook. I'm stunned that something like this could happen in one of the most conservative republican counties in Missouri. Just stunned. Oh, I forgot to mention that the cops did indeed eventually handcuff and arrest the guy that was video recording. Welcome to the nazi police state of the USSA, people.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 17, 2012, 02:26:44 PM
Highly unofficial tallies I've gathered from Twitter and other websites. Note that the vote totals and delegate totals don't all come from the same places, plus there is a natural selection bias. Most of the totals also come from St. Louis County:

Votes:
670 Santorum
665 Paul
473 Uncommitted Unity Slates (Anti-Paul)
380 Romney
40 Gingrich
6 Uncommitted

Delegates:
92 Paul
65 Romney
63 Santorum
3 Gingrich


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Meeker on March 17, 2012, 02:29:04 PM
lol republican caucuses


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 17, 2012, 02:31:53 PM
It's ridiculous that the MO GOP isn't going to report the results of this. The Democratic party reported the delegates totals for all of their caucuses/conventions.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 17, 2012, 02:40:19 PM
The St. Charles County caucus has been cancelled.

Quote
Well, I just got back from my caucus in St. Charles County, Missouri and it did not go well. First of all, the caucus was supposed to start at 10am but the lines were so long that they decided to let anyone who got in line by 10am to get in. The actual meeting didn't even start until approx. 11:10am and this black guy (Eugene, I think he was the St. Chas. County Republican Chairman), tells everyone to turn off their video cameras and that recording is not allowed. The place went ballistic and then Eugene told the cops to arrest this guy who was video recording. The cops went up to arrest the guy and everyone started yelling things like, "First Amendment Rights!", ""Defend the Constitution!", "Arrest the chairman!" The cops realized that this could get ugly so they backed off and called for reinforcements. The meeting was stopped until about a dozen or so more cops showed up. Then Eugene started the meeting again and announced that anyone caught video taping would be arrested. Right after that he asked for a nomination for Caucus Chairman. Brent Stafford was nominated and was overwhelmingly endorsed by the crowd. This Eugene nazi fellow, completely ignored the crowd and nominated this white guy tool who Eugene immediately announced as the Caucus Chairman without any support at all. The place went ballistic and the Romney and Paul supporters realized that we were being screwed. The place continued to go nuts and so the caucus was completely canceled and guess what?! St. Chas. County will not have any delegates to respresent them in this election. The only thing I can figure out is that maybe this Eugene character and his coharts were Santorum supporters and they saw that Romney and Paul were going to get the majority of the delegates so they decided to stir up this trouble. I am sorry to ramble on like this but I am so shaken right now. What I just witnessed seems like something that came right out of the nazi playbook. I'm stunned that something like this could happen in one of the most conservative republican counties in Missouri. Just stunned. Oh, I forgot to mention that the cops did indeed eventually handcuff and arrest the guy that was video recording. Welcome to the nazi police state of the USSA, people.

Republicans stealing elections in America? I'm guessing whoever wrote that wasn't paying any attention in 2000.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: argentarius on March 17, 2012, 02:57:50 PM
Looking like a decent haul for Ron Paul. Should get a few delegates unless they conspire to shut us out, although after today's fiasco I'm sure at the next levels of the caucus they'll just want to get it over with and won't bother.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Bacon King on March 17, 2012, 03:29:34 PM
Looking like a decent haul for Ron Paul. Should get a few delegates unless they conspire to shut us out, although after today's fiasco I'm sure at the next levels of the caucus they'll just want to get it over with and won't bother.

Based on the fact that Anti-Paul "Uncommitted Unity Slates" apparently now exist, it looks like the GOP is beginning to wise up to the Paulistas' tactics.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 17, 2012, 03:33:33 PM
Updated results:

Votes:
700 Paul
686 Santorum
473 Uncommitted Unity Slates (Anti-Paul)
410 Romney
46 Gingrich
6 Uncommitted

Delegates:
116 Paul
92 Santorum
71 Romney
4 Gingrich


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: J. J. on March 17, 2012, 03:37:21 PM
Confusion leads to no Santorum victory.  A chance for Santorum to gain some momentum is gone.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 17, 2012, 03:40:33 PM
Confusion leads to no Santorum victory.  A chance for Santorum to gain some momentum is gone.

There was never going to be a winner declared. 99.9% of people will ignore this contest.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 17, 2012, 03:41:02 PM
Obviously caucuses have different turnouts than primaries, but wow. Santorum got 55% in the primary, while Paul only got 12%.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Torie on March 17, 2012, 03:42:45 PM
I would be happy if Mittens can get 15 delegates out of this mess.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 17, 2012, 03:43:49 PM
Obviously caucuses have different turnouts than primaries, but wow. Santorum got 55% in the primary, while Paul only got 12%.

The vast, vast majority of rural counties have not been represented in the totals I've listed.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: argentarius on March 17, 2012, 03:46:54 PM
Obviously caucuses have different turnouts than primaries, but wow. Santorum got 55% in the primary, while Paul only got 12%.
The thing is though that this is a caucus, which favours Paul, it has received very little media attention, which favours Paul, and Paul didn't try in the primary, because he had Minnesota to focus on.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 17, 2012, 03:47:32 PM
Yeah, most of the counties I'm seeing on Twitter should be strong Romney/Paul counties. The fact that Santorum is doing this well in urban/suburban counties bodes very well for him. If he can get most of Missouri's 52 delegates, that would be a pretty big victory for him.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 17, 2012, 03:59:20 PM
Romney and Paul supporters just banded together to defeat Santorum in Greene County.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Minnesota Mike on March 17, 2012, 04:03:50 PM
Romney and Paul supporters just banded together to defeat Santorum in Greene County.

According to a poster on twitter Paul got 65 Delegates, Romney 40 Delegates and Santorum 6 delegates.

4th largest county in the state. Santorum won the non binding primary with 54% of the vote, he got 5.5% of the delegates.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Minnesota Mike on March 17, 2012, 04:09:23 PM
If you can believe the twitter reports Paul and Romney have been teaming up all over the state to kick Santorum's @ss.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Eraserhead on March 17, 2012, 04:10:46 PM
Confusion leads to no Santorum victory.  A chance for Santorum to gain some momentum is gone.

lol. There's no straw poll anyway. Nobody cares about this other than inside baseball fanatics.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 17, 2012, 04:19:51 PM
Delegate update:
192 Paul
151 Santorum
141 Romney
11 Uncommitted
4 Gingrich


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Bacon King on March 17, 2012, 04:33:33 PM
Here's some delegate total results I've found posted on the Ron Paul Forums, don't know whether they've been mentioned/ counted here yet.

Franklin County: Paul 24, Romney 16
Jasper County: Santorum 25, Paul 11, Romney 7, Newt 1
Stone County: Santorum 15, Paul 1
Stoddard County: majority of delegates for Paul
Warren County: no Paul delegates
Clay County: no Paul delegates
Grundy County: all Paul delegates
Nodaway County: 6 Paul, 2 Romney
Boone County: Paul 48, Romney 5
Lawrence County: Paul 3, Santorum most of the rest (awarded proportionately from primary result)
Atchison County: 1 Paul, 1 Romney, 1 Santorum
St. Francois County: Paul 4, others ?

Also, for St. Charles County, before the police showed up (there was even a SWAT team and helicopter!) a Romney + Paul coalition was on the verge of electing a coalition slate of mostly Romney supporters.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 17, 2012, 04:34:36 PM
Here's some delegate total results I've found posted on the Ron Paul Forums, don't know whether they've been mentioned/ counted here yet.

Franklin County: Paul 24, Romney 16
Jasper County: Santorum 25, Paul 11, Romney 7, Newt 1
Stone County: Santorum 15, Paul 1
Stoddard County: majority of delegates for Paul
Warren County: no Paul delegates
Clay County: no Paul delegates
Grundy County: all Paul delegates
Nodaway County: 6 Paul, 2 Romney
Boone County: Paul 48, Romney 5
Lawrence County: Paul 3, Santorum most of the rest (awarded proportionately from primary result)
Atchison County: 1 Paul, 1 Romney, 1 Santorum
St. Francois County: Paul 4, others ?

Also, for St. Charles County, before the police showed up (there was even a SWAT team and helicopter!) a Romney + Paul coalition was on the verge of electing a coalition slate of mostly Romney supporters.

I have more complete spreadsheets (relatively) that I'm working on.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: tpfkaw on March 17, 2012, 04:36:14 PM
Also, for St. Charles County, before the police showed up (there was even a SWAT team and helicopter!) a Romney + Paul coalition was on the verge of electing a coalition slate of mostly Romney supporters.

Wut.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Torie on March 17, 2012, 05:04:50 PM
Here's some delegate total results I've found posted on the Ron Paul Forums, don't know whether they've been mentioned/ counted here yet.

Franklin County: Paul 24, Romney 16
Jasper County: Santorum 25, Paul 11, Romney 7, Newt 1
Stone County: Santorum 15, Paul 1
Stoddard County: majority of delegates for Paul
Warren County: no Paul delegates
Clay County: no Paul delegates
Grundy County: all Paul delegates
Nodaway County: 6 Paul, 2 Romney
Boone County: Paul 48, Romney 5
Lawrence County: Paul 3, Santorum most of the rest (awarded proportionately from primary result)
Atchison County: 1 Paul, 1 Romney, 1 Santorum
St. Francois County: Paul 4, others ?

Also, for St. Charles County, before the police showed up (there was even a SWAT team and helicopter!) a Romney + Paul coalition was on the verge of electing a coalition slate of mostly Romney supporters.

There are going to have to re-hold the St. Charles County caucus. It is an important county. You can't let the losing candidate benefit from his supporters lawless antics. Or maybe, they will just seat the Paul/Mittens delegates. This cannot stand.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Torie on March 17, 2012, 05:07:02 PM
If you can believe the twitter reports Paul and Romney have been teaming up all over the state to kick Santorum's @ss.

Which suggests where the Paul delegates, or most of them, will be going at the convention, if Mittens needs them. Mittens can something mean about the Federal Reserve to make them feel better about themselves (I tend to put Federal Reserve bashers into the kook category in a hurry).


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 17, 2012, 05:16:15 PM
Delegates (30/142):
202 Paul
184 Santorum
149 Romney
26 Uncommitted
8 Gingrich

Votes (13/142):
1163 Paul
1155 Santorum
479 Uncommitted
440 Romney
66 Gingrich


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: J. J. on March 17, 2012, 05:25:10 PM
Confusion leads to no Santorum victory.  A chance for Santorum to gain some momentum is gone.

There was never going to be a winner declared. 99.9% of people will ignore this contest.

Probably, but there was still a slight chance that someone might have gained some momentum.  This eliminates that chance.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Torie on March 17, 2012, 06:10:57 PM
Welcome (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UK9gXRDbHfU&feature=channel) to the St. Charles County caucus - our "participatory" democracy in action.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 17, 2012, 06:15:39 PM
Welcome (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UK9gXRDbHfU&feature=channel) to the St. Charles County caucus - our "participatory" democracy in action.

Paul supporters sure are annoying.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 17, 2012, 07:50:49 PM
Delegates (35/142):
254 Santorum
215 Paul
172 Romney
33 Uncommitted
8 Gingrich


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: J. J. on March 17, 2012, 08:01:33 PM
Welcome (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UK9gXRDbHfU&feature=channel) to the St. Charles County caucus - our "participatory" democracy in action.

Fortunately, the Paul delegates are totally inept.  :)  Not that chairman is much better.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 17, 2012, 08:05:12 PM
Welcome (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UK9gXRDbHfU&feature=channel) to the St. Charles County caucus - our "participatory" democracy in action.

Fortunately, the Paul delegates are totally inept.  :)  Not that chairman is much better.

What's actually happening there? I'm not totally getting it.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Matthew on March 17, 2012, 08:12:27 PM
Hopefully Paul and Romney can get some of these delegates!


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: J. J. on March 17, 2012, 08:16:06 PM
Welcome (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UK9gXRDbHfU&feature=channel) to the St. Charles County caucus - our "participatory" democracy in action.

Fortunately, the Paul delegates are totally inept.  :)  Not that chairman is much better.

What's actually happening there? I'm not totally getting it.

The Paul folks were trying to get their way, and going about it badly.

What they were trying to do is object to the chair's ruling to ban recording devices (which he probably doesn't have the power to do).  You can do it by raising a point of order, and putting the appeal from the floor if necessary.  They didn't do that.



Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 17, 2012, 08:40:37 PM
The areas we have numbers for voted 55.15% Santorum, 26.23% Romney, 11.35% Paul, and 3.88% Uncom in the primary. Santorum is down almost 18% compared to then, Romney is down about 1%, Paul is up just over 20%, and Uncom is up less than 1%. If these patterns held across the state, the final numbers would be:

Santorum 37.27%
Paul 32.27%
Romney 24.28%
Uncom 4.86%
Gingrich 1.18%


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Matthew on March 17, 2012, 08:51:03 PM
The areas we have numbers for voted 55.15% Santorum, 26.23% Romney, 11.35% Paul, and 3.88% Uncom in the primary. Santorum is down almost 18% compared to then, Romney is down about 1%, Paul is up just over 20%, and Uncom is up less than 1%. If these patterns held across the state, the final numbers would be:

Santorum 37.27%
Paul 32.27%
Romney 24.28%
Uncom 4.86%
Gingrich 1.18%

So a rough delegate estimate would look kind of like this?
 Santorum 19-20
 Paul 16
 Romney 12
Uncommitted 2
Gingrich 0

Of course if this holds throughout the state. They will also be elected within the county and state conventions offically. So this may change.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 17, 2012, 09:42:02 PM
Delegates (38/142):
292 Santorum
223 Paul
176 Romney
33 Uncommitted
8 Gingrich


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 17, 2012, 10:28:11 PM
I'm taking it that this is another epic fail in democracy?


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on March 17, 2012, 10:29:57 PM
I'm taking it that this is another epic fail in democracy?

What can be more democratic then "No filming" and "SWAT Teams" to back it up with? ;)


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: BigSkyBob on March 17, 2012, 10:41:17 PM
Hopefully Paul and Romney can get some of these delegates!


Your are blind to what is happening. This is the same feces as "pro-life, pro-family" in Lousiana, and the deal in West Virginia in 2008.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on March 18, 2012, 07:52:11 AM
I'm taking it that this is another epic fail in democracy?

What can be more democratic then "No filming" and "SWAT Teams" to back it up with? ;)
 

Awarding delegates in proportion to how voters voted during the primary (since given the many problems that have occurred with Republican caucus' this cycle and the general absurdity of the caucus system).


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on March 18, 2012, 08:44:42 AM
I'm taking it that this is another epic fail in democracy?

What can be more democratic then "No filming" and "SWAT Teams" to back it up with? ;)
 

Awarding delegates in proportion to how voters voted during the primary (since given the many problems that have occurred with Republican caucus' this cycle and the general absurdity of the caucus system).

A primary which no one contested except for one candidate who badly needed a boost precisely because the state decided ahead of time it would be meaningless. Had the delegates been tied to that, the results probably would have been different. To hold that up as being, the "democratic" thing to do at this point, is a mistake.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on March 18, 2012, 10:56:03 AM
Yeah you can't hold a "non-binding" primary and then go and retroactively make it count. Same situation as 2008 when J. J. and Hillary Is 44 were arguing to seat the delegates in Florida and Michigan as elected, Michigan being the more absurd of those two. In this case it'd be even more absurd since there's no standard for how delegates would be assigned, so deciding on a delegate allocation method would also be blatantly beneficial toward a certain candidate.

I think the whole reason Missouri had the non-binding primary is it was already scheduled there but would violate RNC rules and be subject to sanctions. So there was an attempt to have it moved forward, but the GOP-controlled State House and State Senate deadlocked, weren't able to meet the deadline, and the caucus had to be set up instead to assign delegates. So basically blame Republicans' inability to govern for this.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on March 18, 2012, 11:27:43 AM
Yeah you can't hold a "non-binding" primary and then go and retroactively make it count. Same situation as 2008 when J. J. and Hillary Is 44 were arguing to seat the delegates in Florida and Michigan as elected, Michigan being the more absurd of those two. In this case it'd be even more absurd since there's no standard for how delegates would be assigned, so deciding on a delegate allocation method would also be blatantly beneficial toward a certain candidate.

I think the whole reason Missouri had the non-binding primary is it was already scheduled there but would violate RNC rules and be subject to sanctions. So there was an attempt to have it moved forward, but the GOP-controlled State House and State Senate deadlocked, weren't able to meet the deadline, and the caucus had to be set up instead to assign delegates. So basically blame Republicans' inability to govern for this.

Fair enough


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: J. J. on March 18, 2012, 11:40:59 AM
Yeah you can't hold a "non-binding" primary and then go and retroactively make it count. Same situation as 2008 when J. J. and Hillary Is 44 were arguing to seat the delegates in Florida and Michigan as elected, Michigan being the more absurd of those two. In this case it'd be even more absurd since there's no standard for how delegates would be assigned, so deciding on a delegate allocation method would also be blatantly beneficial toward a certain candidate.

I think the whole reason Missouri had the non-binding primary is it was already scheduled there but would violate RNC rules and be subject to sanctions. So there was an attempt to have it moved forward, but the GOP-controlled State House and State Senate deadlocked, weren't able to meet the deadline, and the caucus had to be set up instead to assign delegates. So basically blame Republicans' inability to govern for this.

I'm not thrilled about this either.  Nor am I thrilled about the PA situation.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 18, 2012, 12:20:38 PM
Here's the best total I can probably come up with:

Delegates (49/142):
332 Santorum
242 Paul
213 Romney
32 Uncommitted
8 Gingrich
(21 Unknown)


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on March 18, 2012, 02:44:53 PM
Quote
A primary which no one contested except for one candidate who badly needed a boost precisely because the state decided ahead of time it would be meaningless. Had the delegates been tied to that, the results probably would have been different. To hold that up as being, the "democratic" thing to do at this point, is a mistake.

If VA counts, then so should MO.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on March 18, 2012, 02:59:44 PM
The difference is everyone knew VA would count ahead of time, the other candidates just epic failed at making the ballot. Missouri had some candidates not attempt and others not campaign.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Smash255 on March 18, 2012, 03:01:12 PM
Here's the best total I can probably come up with:

Delegates (49/142):
332 Santorum
242 Paul
213 Romney
32 Uncommitted
8 Gingrich
(21 Unknown)

Where are you getting that from?


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 18, 2012, 03:04:03 PM
Here's the best total I can probably come up with:

Delegates (49/142):
332 Santorum
242 Paul
213 Romney
32 Uncommitted
8 Gingrich
(21 Unknown)

Where are you getting that from?

Scrapped together from Twitter, forums, newspaper articles. Anything I can find.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on March 18, 2012, 07:13:26 PM
Quote
A primary which no one contested except for one candidate who badly needed a boost precisely because the state decided ahead of time it would be meaningless. Had the delegates been tied to that, the results probably would have been different. To hold that up as being, the "democratic" thing to do at this point, is a mistake.

If VA counts, then so should MO.

The standard of comparison you have established here is ridiculously beyond all sense of objectivity. The situations are completely different.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 18, 2012, 08:43:18 PM
Can somebody make a map of this?


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 18, 2012, 09:20:45 PM

It's really, really ugly, and I don't know how much it would tell us. But here is what I have anyway:

()

Romney is barely beating Santorum in St. Louis County from the results I have. However, they don't include Chesterfield which went big for Santorum, so he probably won it in the end.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Matthew on March 18, 2012, 09:59:19 PM
A rought guess on how the delegates would break down?


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Bacon King on March 19, 2012, 12:48:10 AM
Here's the best total I can probably come up with:

Delegates (49/142):
332 Santorum
242 Paul
213 Romney
32 Uncommitted
8 Gingrich
(21 Unknown)

The spreadsheet from the Ron Paul forum appears to have some different locales included than you; they have a total of Paul 307, Romney 278, Santorum 271, Gingrich 14

eridox.com/temp/MOGOPCaucusResults.xlsx



Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 19, 2012, 01:16:16 AM
Here's the best total I can probably come up with:

Delegates (49/142):
332 Santorum
242 Paul
213 Romney
32 Uncommitted
8 Gingrich
(21 Unknown)

The spreadsheet from the Ron Paul forum appears to have some different locales included than you; they have a total of Paul 307, Romney 278, Santorum 271, Gingrich 14

eridox.com/temp/MOGOPCaucusResults.xlsx


Yeah, I had a fair few more results than they did, and they counted the alternates in Taney County, giving Paul more than he should have. They also counted votes in Tesson Ferry rather than delegates, and I'm not sure the Jefferson County numbers are right; the MOGOP allocation doc gave the county 74 delegates, not 126. Romney did get a majority though there. They did have some I didn't though. Adding those in, I get:

Delegates (55/142):
414 Santorum
310 Romney
297 Paul
32 Uncommitted
9 Gingrich

New map:
()


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 19, 2012, 01:30:36 AM
Here's my spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aofev0ik3wSudGdoOXBETjFzQ2s3THVsNU00amdoX1E#gid=0 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aofev0ik3wSudGdoOXBETjFzQ2s3THVsNU00amdoX1E#gid=0)


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 19, 2012, 01:32:46 AM
You're the best.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 19, 2012, 01:37:32 AM


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 19, 2012, 10:32:59 AM
So when the hell do we find out who actually won this damn contest? This upcoming Saturday?


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 19, 2012, 10:38:35 AM
So when the hell do we find out who actually won this damn contest? This upcoming Saturday?

We won't officially "know" until the state convention. They aren't going to release results for the caucuses.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 19, 2012, 10:39:42 AM
So when the hell do we find out who actually won this damn contest? This upcoming Saturday?

We won't officially "know" until the state convention. They aren't going to release results for the caucuses.

And when is that?


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 19, 2012, 10:43:00 AM
So when the hell do we find out who actually won this damn contest? This upcoming Saturday?

We won't officially "know" until the state convention. They aren't going to release results for the caucuses.

And when is that?

June 2.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Erc on March 19, 2012, 10:45:19 AM
So when the hell do we find out who actually won this damn contest? This upcoming Saturday?

We won't officially "know" until the state convention. They aren't going to release results for the caucuses.

And when is that?

June 2.

CD delegates are chosen April 21---slightly under half of the total delegation, and it should give us a better idea of how the State Convention might play out.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 19, 2012, 10:49:05 AM
This is officially the worst system of the season.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 19, 2012, 11:33:09 AM
Eh, it's basically the same system as in Iowa, Minnesota, etc. just without a meaningless straw poll that is clearly not tracking with the actual delegate allocations.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 19, 2012, 11:36:24 AM
Eh, it's basically the same system as in Iowa, Minnesota, etc. just without a meaningless straw poll that is clearly not tracking with the actual delegate allocations.

And it is stretching out over weeks just to see who won the state. I understand the conventions matter in these caucus states but at least we know who won the damn caucuses in Iowa, Minnesota, etc.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Beet on March 19, 2012, 12:00:39 PM
Here's my plan:
()


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: J. J. on March 19, 2012, 12:37:43 PM
This is officially the worst system of the season.

No, PA will be.  :(


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 19, 2012, 12:43:45 PM
This is officially the worst system of the season.

No, PA will be.  :(

Well, yeah, probably.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Minnesota Mike on March 24, 2012, 01:02:19 PM
According to Twitter reports Ron Paul won every delegate and alternate in the city of St Louis.

#mocaucus

That should mean he will eventually pick up the three national delegates from MO-01.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 24, 2012, 01:31:12 PM
According to Twitter reports Ron Paul won every delegate and alternate in the city of St Louis.

#mocaucus

That should mean he will eventually pick up the three national delegates from MO-01.

I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case. He was pretty strong there in the primary too.

That would put my totals at:

Delegates (50/142):
414 Santorum (37.00%)
333 Paul (29.76%)
310 Romney (27.70%)
21 Uncommitted
9 Paul
(21 Unknown)


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 24, 2012, 01:56:35 PM
Is the show me state going to show me the results?


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 24, 2012, 02:03:50 PM
Jackson County with 179 delegates is voting now. If the Paul people can hijack the county, they can take the lead in my count. Doesn't mean they'd actually be ahead though.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2012, 02:30:06 PM
 How many delegates could Ron Paul get out of Missouri as things stand now?


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 24, 2012, 03:12:07 PM
Sounds like the Romney and Paul camps are colluding again in Jackson County to deny Santorum delegates.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 24, 2012, 03:38:53 PM
Paul won vast majority of delegates in Jackson with Romney winning the remainder. None for Santorum. I don't have any hard numbers, but Paul should now be leading in my totals.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: argentarius on March 24, 2012, 03:40:10 PM
Santorum's lack of organisation is KILLING him.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Minnesota Mike on March 24, 2012, 03:49:29 PM
Missouri is really turning out to be a disaster for Santorum. This a a state he should be cleaning up in but if the Paul and Romney camps keep working together he could wind up finishing 2nd or 3rd in terms of delegates.

BTW just from reading the twitter feeds I bet in 2016 the Missouri primary will be binding again. People hate this system.
 


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 24, 2012, 03:51:18 PM
Seeing 80%/20% P/R being thrown around. If exact, that's 143 Paul and 36 Romney from Jackson. Going by those numbers, you'd get:

Delegates (51/142):
476 Paul
414 Santorum
346 Romney
32 Uncommitted
9 Gingrich
(21 Unknown)

Keep in mind the most of the other 91 counties/townships where I don't have info should be mostly Santorum areas. I still think Rick has more statewide, but we may never know.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Matthew on March 24, 2012, 03:54:57 PM
Go Paul!!! GO!


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: argentarius on March 24, 2012, 04:01:58 PM
Any news organisations counting the delegates from this contest?


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 24, 2012, 04:03:18 PM
Any news organisations counting the delegates from this contest?

I doubt it.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 24, 2012, 04:11:27 PM
RAWN PAWL


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 25, 2012, 12:15:08 AM
OK, it's time to change their state motto to "Fail to show me"


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: muon2 on March 25, 2012, 08:28:19 AM
Santorum's lack of organisation is KILLING him.

This has been his problem throughout the primaries. He had virtually no ground organization during the critical period last summer. In many states he was left inheriting parts of organizations from candidates who dropped out, but that is not the same as building your own. Both Romney and Paul did have state organizations in place, not only last year, but at a low level back to their runs in 2008.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: argentarius on March 25, 2012, 02:13:54 PM
Got a map update? Any chance we could get these results posted on the main website?

Will they rehold the St. Charles caucus?

EDIT: Just saw on wikipedia that it's due for April 10. Will there be more shenanigans at the caucus or will they just try and get it finished?


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 25, 2012, 07:13:12 PM
Got a map update? Any chance we could get these results posted on the main website?

That map doesn't change much. Only St. Louis County and Jackson County have voted since my last map and Paul won both. Also, I highly, highly doubt the caucus data will be hosted on the main site unless the MOGOP releases something official or I find something totaled.

()


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Bacon King on March 26, 2012, 09:14:42 AM
It looks like wikipedia's map has a few counties you don't:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_Republican_primary_and_caucuses,_2012


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 26, 2012, 10:09:54 AM
It looks like wikipedia's map has a few counties you don't:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_Republican_primary_and_caucuses,_2012

Most of their sources didn't have hard numbers unfortunately, but most of the stuff that did that I didn't have was really strong for Santorum, who is once again leading my tally.

New numbers:

Delegates (66/142):
495 Santorum
473 Paul
354 Romney
67 Uncommitted
11 Gingrich
(21 Unknown)


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 26, 2012, 10:22:20 AM
Are all of the Anti Santorum areas in or is it hard to tell because of the Romney-Paul alliance?


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 26, 2012, 11:17:06 AM
Are all of the Anti Santorum areas in or is it hard to tell because of the Romney-Paul alliance?

Impossible to say for sure. I'm sure St. Charles County when it votes will be strong for Paul. The other areas should mostly, though certainly not entirely, Santorum.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: argentarius on March 26, 2012, 11:22:22 AM
Are all of the Anti Santorum areas in or is it hard to tell because of the Romney-Paul alliance?

Impossible to say for sure. I'm sure St. Charles County when it votes will be strong for Paul. The other areas should mostly, though certainly not entirely, Santorum.

Yeah, I think that most of the other counties have so little at stake and so few people it's hard for the not-Santorum's to organise anything to get some delegates off him.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 26, 2012, 11:34:20 AM
Are all of the Anti Santorum areas in or is it hard to tell because of the Romney-Paul alliance?

Impossible to say for sure. I'm sure St. Charles County when it votes will be strong for Paul. The other areas should mostly, though certainly not entirely, Santorum.

Yeah, I think that most of the other counties have so little at stake and so few people it's hard for the not-Santorum's to organise anything to get some delegates off him.

When the delegates are generally going 100% for one candidate in most of the small counties, they add up fast.

Also, here is my updated spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aofev0ik3wSudGdoOXBETjFzQ2s3THVsNU00amdoX1E (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aofev0ik3wSudGdoOXBETjFzQ2s3THVsNU00amdoX1E)

Oh, and Gingrich apparently won Livingston County for some reason.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: argentarius on March 26, 2012, 11:38:30 AM
How many delegates are at stake in St. Charles?


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: RI on March 26, 2012, 11:49:01 AM
How many delegates are at stake in St. Charles?

147, so plenty.


Title: Re: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 26, 2012, 12:12:42 PM
When should St. Charles be completed? 2018?