Talk Elections

does Chris Christie have a shot at winning New jersey next year?

If so what parts of the state does he need to win?
I thought NJ was a democratic state.

Christie's pretty popular here, and he probably should win reelection. I don't think I've seen any major NJ democrats want to run against him. They all seem to be getting ready for the likely open senate seat in 2014.

I don't live in New Jersey, but I'm a big fan of Cory Booker running against Chris Christie.

The big dog Chris Christie will get ~56% of the vote.

Depends on who's president.

Christie ain't safe.  His hostile attitude toward everyone he disagrees with isn't going to help him, certainly.

Of course it will. Those unions compromise some 10-15% of the population. The Abbotts are 18-20%. Everyone else approves of the big dog because he is the savior.

Isn't that the attitude of most people who live in Jersey though?

Christie will probably win reelection, because he's reasonably popular for some incomprehensible reason and such parts of Democratic bench in New Jersey as might be induced to run against him suck.

This reason is the property tax.

I wasn't aware that you had to be part of a union to sympathize with them.  Regardless, politicians who act that arrogant and condescending don't usually live great legacies.


Stereotype.

He should probably win again.

The NJEA has inflicted a tremendous amount of damage on roughly 60% of the public. They don't have much sympathy outside their swollen ranks.

Christie is favored for re-election, but that's about as much as you can say. Former Gov. Richard Codey could make things interesting, and there's a chance he could run. Booker will not run, of course.

The key areas of the state are the same as last time. Christie needs big margins at the shore and in the Northwest. He'll also need to hold steady in Democrat-leaning Bergen County (tie or better) and heavily-Democratic Middlesex County (tie or better).

Because everything, of course, is clearly DEH YEWNYUNZ fault.

Speaking of Christie...

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/04/06/christie_increasingly_seen_in_negative_terms.html (http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/04/06/christie_increasingly_seen_in_negative_terms.html)

The Rutgers-Eagleton poll is probably the worst Uni polling outfit in the country. Monmouth and FDU are much better.

I'd put him at between a 3:2 and 2:1 favorite to win.  the problem is that he is just popular enough to keep the most dangerous candidate (Booker) on the sidelines.


he also is conceivably just unpopular enough to bail a la Romney 2006.

No, but the outrageous property tax is.

New Jersey Turns Against Christie! New Jersey Turns Against Christie!

He should win, but not by a huge margin.

Can someone tell me what the hype over Booker is? I admit I don't know much about him, but it seems like he gets a lot of attention from Democrats on here.

The way I see it, he's like a New Jersey Obama, but better. There's also the fact that he's done a ton of good as mayor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cory_Booker#Mayoral_administration), and the perception that he amplify his good deeds as Governor. He's also got a good sense of humor.

Booker will wait until 2017 or gun for Lautenberg's open Senate seat.

Christie will win by a moderate margin.

would Booker run against Christie? or do you think he would run for Senate

Booker won't roll the dice and chance being dealt a devastating defeat. And no one else can beat Christie barring a major screw-up for him.

Highest approval ever:

"New Jersey voters still approve 59 - 36 percent of the job Christie is doing, his best score ever. Approval is 92 - 6 percent among Republicans and 64 - 32 percent among independent voters. Democrats disapprove 64 - 30 percent."

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1735

It was hard to see Booker running against Christie to begin with. Christie's ratings will really have to crash in just a few months for Booker to even consider a run. 59% in NJ is phenomenal. We aren't exactly living in the most Pro Incumbent time so when you consider these ratings and factor in that he's the Governor of a state where the voters hate everyone and consider Christie's conservative/Republican rhetoric, it's truly remarkable that he's polling so high.

Property taxes are the ceiling on the democrats across the rust belt.  Writing out that $8,000+ check in exchange for NOTHING every year kind of sticks in your head.     

I see your Chris Christie's 59% approval rating, and I raise you Cory Booker literally running into a burning home and saving someone (http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/13/us/new-jersey-mayor-rescue/index.html?eref=mrss_igoogle_cnn).

Christie has got to be sh**tting his pants about a potential Booker challenge.

Well, Christie is relatively popular now, but it's more then 1.5 years until governor election in New Jersey. People there are, generally, very cynical about their politicians, so anything may happen..

As far as New Jersey being Democratic state - generally yes, of course.. But it came to my mind that before last election of 2010 Republicans held governorship in Hawaii, California, Connecticut and Vermont, while Democrats - in Wyoming, Oklahoma and Kansas. Every state may elect anyone under "right cirumstances"...

And now try to imagine Christie running up the stairs to save that woman from the flames ...

I have that image of a Chris Christie being stuck in the middle of that stairway in my head, while cussing around in his usual offensive manner. In the meantime, Cory Booker is climbing up to the roof of the house, swings himself into a window, glass is breaking, Booker is battered and bruised and bloody, while he aims for the screaming woman who's about to burn in the flames. Then he finds the screaming woman, puts her over his shoulder and starts to run down the stairway where Chris Christie is still stuck and cussing around. He drops the woman, goes back up a few steps, runs down again and tackles Christie so hard that he unstucks and tumbles down the stairway. Booker takes the woman again and sprints out of the house and into security, after which he returns into the house and drags a unconscious Chris Christie outside the building too. A year later, Chris Christie defeats Corie Booker by 51-47 in the New Jersey Gubernatorial Election, because Booker has a sex scandal.

Christie now enjoys a 56% approval rating in the latest Farleigh Dickinson Poll - http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/05/08/christie_approval_soars_to_new_high.html (http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/05/08/christie_approval_soars_to_new_high.html)

:D

Actually, he doesn't have to at all.

Why? Because he'd lose anyways?

That poll looks food for Christie, but the quote from ABC news is priceless:

"Jersey has been afflicted by Snookie, mob wives, Jim McGreevey, and six figure public pensions and sick day payouts, so I think many voters see Chris Christie as a ray of hope for sanity,” poll director Peter Wooley told ABC News, while analyzing the good numbers for Christie.

If Chris Christie is New Jersey's best hope for sanity then that state is as far off the deep end as people think it is.

I don't think he'll win in a landslide, probably a narrow victory, just like Christie Whitman in 1997. The incumbency factor should be just enough for him to edge out all of the loyal Democratic votes

Nope, try again. New Jerseyans love Chris Christie.

A certain segment do, certainly, which at this point would seem to exceed one-half, but there are as I am sure you are aware also many who very much do not 'love' the man.

The actual reason is that Booker from all I've heard really doesn't want to run against Christie.