Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International What-ifs => Topic started by: Del Tachi on April 04, 2012, 06:06:36 PM



Title: What If?
Post by: Del Tachi on April 04, 2012, 06:06:36 PM
I'm not too great with British politics, but I have a question.

If Margaret Thatcher had survived her leadership challenge in 1990, would she have gone on to win an unprecdented fourth term as Prime Minister in 1992?  If John Major could do it, why not Maggie?

If she could, she could had served as Prime Minister from 1979 to 1997--18 years!


Title: Re: What If?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 04, 2012, 06:18:35 PM
She wouldn't have. John Major became Prime Minister precisely because Maggie had become an electoral liability to the Conservatives.


Title: Re: What If?
Post by: Del Tachi on April 04, 2012, 06:22:46 PM
She wouldn't have. John Major became Prime Minister precisely because Maggie had become an electoral liability to the Conservatives.

I've always heard that the reason the Torys disposed of her was not because she was unpopular with the electorate, but had offending her party's rank-and-file with her anti-European Community messages.

What were Maggie's approval ratings 1989-1990?


Title: Re: What If?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 04, 2012, 09:00:16 PM
She wouldn't have. John Major became Prime Minister precisely because Maggie had become an electoral liability to the Conservatives.

I've always heard that the reason the Torys disposed of her was not because she was unpopular with the electorate, but had offending her party's rank-and-file with her anti-European Community messages.

What were Maggie's approval ratings 1989-1990?

I don't have approval info to hand, but the voting intention data really speaks for itself if you look at the difference between Tory support before and after that famous first ballot on the 20th November 1990.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992

Take ICM (traditionally, our most accurate pollster):
16th November 1990
49 37 9

And just a week later, 3 days after Thatcher announces she'll go:
46 40 10

Poll tax really damaged her (and the Tory brand in general for that matter) terminally.